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年10 月15 日",[829,830,831],"blockquote",{},[822,832,833],{},"该演讲是由Graham-Buffett 教学基金会赞助的系列演讲的第一场，该基金会于1997 年由Mason Hawkins(佛罗里达大学1970 届毕业生)捐赠100 万美元成立。",[822,835,836,837,840,841,844],{},"主持人：Graham-Buffett 课程对本学院非常重要，因为它使我们能够吸引那些希望拥有类似投资和管理视角的学生，",[825,838,839],{},"巴菲特","先生、霍金斯先生以及在他们之前的本杰明",[825,842,843],{},"格雷厄姆","都曾成功运用过这种视角。它非常简单，但有时会在我们大学复杂的分析中丢失。这个观点就是，你必须了解你所投资、工作的企业的基本经济情况。你必须保持清醒的头脑，不被群体或一时的狂热所左右。你必须学习并坚持商业估值的基本原则。从长期来看，这种有纪律的方法往往会带来成功，更重要的是避免巨大的失败。希望在佛罗里达大学，我们能够成功地传达这些原则，并为最优秀的学生以及最优秀的雇主创建一个项目。我们感谢霍金斯先生捐赠的100 万美元，并在今天分享他的想法。",[822,846,847,848,850],{},"霍金斯：在过去的30 年里，他是我非常钦佩的人。此外，他也是我们每个人都可以效仿的榜样。我很荣幸向大家介绍我们一生中最优秀的长期投资者",[825,849,839],{},"先生。",[822,852,853,855],{},[825,854,839],{},"：(手持麦克风)测试，1 百万、2 百万、3 百万。",[822,857,858],{},"我先简单说几句，把大部分时间留下来回答大家的问题。我想聊聊大家关心的话题。请各位提问的时候一定要刁钻。你们问的问题越难才越好玩。什么都可以问，就是不能问上个月我交了多少税，这个问题我无可奉告。",[822,860,861],{},"各位同学，你们毕业之后未来会怎样？我简单说说我的想法。",[822,863,864],{},"各位在这所大学能学到大量关于投资的知识，你们将拥有成功所需的知识。既然各位能坐在这里，你们也拥有成功所需的智商，你们还有成功所需的拼劲。你们大多数人都会成功地实现自己的理想。但是最后你到底能否成功，不只取决于你的头脑和勤奋。我简单讲一下这个道理。",[822,866,867],{},[825,868,869],{},"奥马哈有个叫彼得·基威特(Pete Kiewit)的人，他招人时就看三点：品行integrity、头脑intelligence 和勤奋energy。他说一个人要是头脑聪明、勤奋努力，但品行不好，肯定是个祸害。品行不端的人，最好又懒又蠢。我知道各位都头脑聪明、勤奋努力，所以我今天只讲品行。为了更好地思考这个问题，我们不妨一起做个游戏。",[822,871,872,873,881],{},"各位都是MBA 二年级的学生，应该很了解自己周围的同学了。假设现在你可以选一个同学，买入他今后一生之内10%的收入。你不能选富二代，只能选靠自己奋斗的人。请各位仔细想一下，你会选班里的哪位同学，买入他今后一生之内10%的收入？你会给所有同学做个智商测试，选智商最高的吗？未必。你会选考试成绩最高的吗？未必。你会选最有拼劲的吗？不一定。因为大家都很聪明，也都很努力，我觉得你会主要考虑定性方面的因素。好好想想，你会把赌注压在谁的身上？",[825,874,875,876,880],{},"也许你会选你最有认同感的那个人，那个拥有领导能力，能把别人组织起来的人。这样的人应该是慷慨大方的、诚实",[877,878,217],"a",{"href":879},"\u002Fzhengzhi","的，他们自己做了贡献，却说是别人的功劳","。我觉得让你做出决定的应该是这样的品质。找到了你最钦佩的这位同学之后，想一想他身上有哪些优秀品质，拿一张纸，把这些品质写在纸的左边。",[822,883,884,885,892],{},"下面我要加大难度了。为了拥有这位同学今后一生10%的收入，你还要同时做空另一位同学今后一生10%的收入，这个更好玩。想想你会做空谁？你不会选智商最低的。你会想到那些招人烦的人，他们可能学习成绩优秀，但你就是不想和他们打交道，不但你烦他们，别人也烦他们。为什么有人会招人烦？原因很多，",[825,886,887,888,891],{},"这样的人可能自私自利、贪得无厌、",[877,889,125],{"href":890},"\u002Ftouji","取巧或者弄虚作假","。类似这样的品质，你想想还有什么，请把它们写在刚才那张纸的右边。",[822,894,895],{},"看看左右两边分别列出来的品质，你发现了吗？这些品质不是把橄榄球扔出60 米，不是10 秒钟跑完100米，不是相貌在全班最出众。左边的这些品质，你真想拥有的话，你可以有。这些是关于行为、脾气和性格的品质，是能培养出来的。在座的各位，只要你想要获得这些品质，没一个是你得不到的。",[822,897,898,899,902],{},"再看一下右边的那些品质，那些令人生厌的品质，没一个是你非有不可的，你身上要是有，想改的话，可以改掉。大多数行为都是习惯成自然。我已经老了，但你们还年轻，想摆脱恶习，你们年轻人做起来更容易。",[825,900,901],{},"常言道，习惯的枷锁，开始的时候轻的难以察觉，直到后来却重的无法摆脱","。这话特别在理。",[822,904,905],{},"我在生活中见过一些人，他们有的和我年纪差不多，有的比我年轻十几二十几岁，但是他们染上了一些坏习性，把自己毁了，改也改不掉，走到哪都招人烦。他们原来不是这样的，但是习惯成自然，积累到一定程度，根本改不了了。你们还年轻，想养成什么习惯、想形成什么品格，都可以，就看你自己怎么想了。",[822,907,908,909,911,912,914,915,918,919,921],{},"本·",[825,910,843],{},"，还有他之前的本·富兰克林，他们都这么做过。本·",[825,913,843],{},"十几岁的时候就观察自己周围那些令人敬佩的人，他对自己说：",[825,916,917],{},"我也想成为一个被别人敬佩的人，我要向他们学习","。",[825,920,843],{},"发现学习他敬佩的人，像他们一样为人处世，是完全做得到的。他同样观察周围遭人厌恶的人，摆脱他们身上的缺点。",[822,923,924],{},"我建议大家把这些品质写下来，好好想想，把好品质养成习惯，最后你想买谁10%的收入，就会变成他。你已经确定拥有自己100%的收入，再有别人的10%，这多好。你选择了谁，你都可以学得像他一样。",[822,926,927],{},"我要讲的道理讲完了，下面聊聊大家感兴趣的，请各位提问吧。",[929,930,932],"h2",{"id":931},"_1学生请谈谈您对日本的看法","1.学生：请谈谈您对日本的看法？",[822,934,935,937,938,941,942,944],{},[825,936,839],{},"：我对日本的看法？我不研究宏观问题。我就想啊，",[825,939,940],{},"伯克希尔","可以在日本以1%的利率借到十年期的贷款，1%的利率！我就琢磨了，我45 年前听了",[825,943,843],{},"的课，一辈子都在研究这些东西，我要是用点心，收益率应该能超过1%吧？应该能做到吧？",[822,946,947],{},"我不想承受汇率风险，所以我必须投资以日元计价的标的，只能投资日本房地产或日本公司，收益率超过1%就行，因为我的资金成本就是十年期利率1%。我一直在找，还一个都没找到，你说有意思不？日本公司的股本回报率很低，大多数公司的股本回报率只有4-6%。如果你投资的公司本身都不赚钱，你也很难赚钱。",[822,949,950,951,953,954,918],{},"有的人能做到。我有个朋友，沃尔特·施洛斯，当年我们都为",[825,952,843],{},"打工。我一开始买股票就这么买的，买那些股价远远低于营运资金的股票，从定量分析上看非常便宜的股票，我把这种投资方法叫捡烟头。在大街上四处溜达，看哪有烟头可捡。最后发现了一个，上面带着口水，看起来很恶心，但是还能抽一口，于是弯下腰把它捡起来，免费抽了一口。有的股票和别人扔的烟头一样。捡起来免费抽一口，扔掉，然后继续在大街上四处溜达接着捡。一点都不体面。",[825,955,956],{},"捡烟头的投资方法管用，但是用这种方法买的都是资产回报率很低的生意",[822,958,959],{},[825,960,961,962,965,966,968,969,971],{},"时间是好生意的朋友，烂生意的敌人。如果",[877,963,120],{"href":964},"\u002Fzhangqichiyou","一个烂生意，就算买得再便宜，最后也只能取得很烂的收益。如果",[877,967,120],{"href":964},"好生意，就算买得贵了一些，只要",[877,970,120],{"href":964},"，还是会取得出色的收益。",[822,973,974,975,978],{},"我现在在日本没找到值得买的好生意。或许日本公司需要改变一下文化，",[825,976,977],{},"管理层应该更注重股东利益，更注重提高股票的回报率","。别说现在日本的大多数公司收益率很低，连日本经济繁荣的时候，也是如此。真是很奇怪，日本有不少公司占领了巨大的市场，却没几个值得投资的。日本公司把生意做得很大，但是股本回报率太低，最后就出问题了。我们在日本还没有投资。只要日元保持1%的利率，我们会接着找。",[829,980,981],{},[822,982,983,984,987,988,991],{},"(日本企业的平均ROE 水平低于欧美企业。一般认为主要原因是净利率较低。国内市场的饱和引发激烈的价格战和新兴市场的低成本竞争，以及较高的能源成本和税收负担，导致整体净利率不高。高企的员工成本也是一大因素，日本企业往往更加注重员工福利和社会责任，可能会将更多的利润用于员工薪酬、培训和发展，以及社区贡献，而不是直接回馈给股东。另外僵化的劳动制度导致企业从低收益项目撤退时解雇人员非常困难。以下因素也可能是净利率过低的原因：过度追求顾客需求以上的品质和功能、过度追求顾客定制化、商品和产品的生命周期过短、商品和产品的种类过多、做出项目与商品的选择以及市场撤退的决策过慢、白领阶层的生产力过低、过度追求用自己的技术和资源，而排斥其他",[877,985,161],{"href":986},"\u002Fqudao","的技术和资源等。日本企业在供应链中不认可只提高自家特有利润的风气、长期交易关系中佣金长期均一化的倾向、在基础生活层面的高成本结构等也被认为是低利润率的原因。第二，日本的许多企业集中在资本密集型行业，如汽车制造、电子设备和重型机械等，这些行业需要大量的固定资产投入，导致资产周转率较低。许多日本公司采取长期投资策略，重视研发和技术创新，以及市场渗透和",[877,989,141],{"href":990},"\u002Fpinpai","建设，这些都需要大量的前期投资，短期内可能不会显著增加利润。第三，自1990 年代以来，日本经历了“失去的十年”，经济增长缓慢通货紧缩，日本企业倾向于保持较高的现金储备和较低的财务杠杆。虽然这降低了财务风险，但同时也限制了通过债务融资来提升ROE 的可能性。从2015 年开始，在股东大会上行使决议权的机构股东服务ISS 公司制定了一个标准：如果企业过去五年的平均ROE 未达5%，他们可以反对最高管理层包括董事长和总经理的任命。在这种情况下，越来越多的日本企业试图确保ROE 不低于5%，基本达到或高于8%的平均值。)",[929,993,995],{"id":994},"_2学生有传言说您是救赎长期资本管理公司的买家之一到底发生了什么能给我们讲讲吗","2.学生：有传言说您是救赎长期资本管理公司的买家之一，到底发生了什么，能给我们讲讲吗？",[822,997,998,1000],{},[825,999,839],{},"：最新一期的《财富》杂志，封面上是鲁伯特·默多克，其中有一篇报道，讲了我们是如何参与的。这件事非常耐人寻味。说来话长，我从我们开始参与时讲起。那是一个周五的下午，我接到了一个电话，说长期资本管理公司出大事了。那天晚上我要参加我孙女的生日聚会，然后要飞到西雅图，和盖茨一家乘船游览阿拉斯加，行程是12 天。后来，我在船上，和外界联系很困难。之前我也接到过几次电话，但在周五下午接到的那个电话里，我知道真是出大事了。我认识长期资本管理公司的那些人，和其中一些人还很熟，我临时接手所罗门的时候，他们中的很多人当时都在。长期资本管理公司要崩盘了，周末美联储派人进驻。从那个周五到下一周的周三，美联储纽约分行组织了一次纾困行动，希望在联邦政府不出钱的情况下能拯救长期资本，但是没成功。我非常积极地参与这件事，但是船在峡谷之间航行，根本没信号，我对看风景毫无兴趣。船长说往那边航行，也许能看到熊和鲸鱼。我说哪有卫星信号往哪开。",[822,1002,1003,1004,1006],{},"周三上午我们给了一个报价。在和美联储纽约分行的比尔·麦克唐纳谈过之后，我们出价2.5 亿美元买入长期资本的净资产，此外还将注资37.5 亿美元，其中",[825,1005,940],{},"出资30 亿，AIG 出资7 亿，高盛出资3 亿。我们提交了方案，但是只给对方很短的时间考虑。我们要买的是1000 亿美元的证券，价格瞬息万变，但我们的出价是固定的，所以不可能给对方很长时间。最后是投行的人把交易谈成了。",[822,1008,1009,1010,1013],{},"这件事非常耐人寻味。长期资本管理公司的由来，相信在座的大多人都知道，实在太令人感慨了。约翰·梅里韦瑟、艾瑞克·罗森菲尔德、拉里·希利布兰德、格雷格·霍金斯、维克多·哈格哈尼，还有两位诺贝尔奖桂冠得主罗伯特·默顿和迈伦·舒尔兹，把他们这16 个人加起来，他们的智商该多高，随便从哪家公司挑16 个人出来，包括",[825,1011,1012],{},"微软","，都没法和他们比。",[822,1015,1016],{},"第一，他们的智商高得不得了。第二，他们这16 个人都是投资领域的老手。他们不是倒卖服装发的家，然后来搞证券的。他们这16 个人加起来，有三四百年的经验了，一直都在投资这行摸爬滚打。第三，他们大多数人都几乎把自己的全部财产都投入到了长期资本管理公司，他们把自己的钱也投进去了。他们自己投了几亿美元，而且智商高超，经验老道，结果却破产了。真是让人感慨。",[822,1018,1019,1020,1023,1024,1027,1028,1031],{},"要让我写一本书的话，书名我都想好了，就叫《",[825,1021,1022],{},"聪明人怎么做蠢事","》，我的合伙人说我的自传可以叫这个名字。但是，我们从长期资本这件事能得到很多启发。长期资本的人都是好人。我尊重他们。当我在所罗门焦头烂额的时候，他们帮过我。他们根本不是坏人。",[825,1025,1026],{},"但是他们为了赚更多的钱，为了赚自己不需要的钱，把自己手里的钱，把自己需要的钱都搭进去了","。这不是傻是什么？绝对是傻，不管智商多高，都是傻。",[825,1029,1030],{},"为了得到对自己不重要的东西，甘愿拿对自己重要的东西去冒险","，哪能这么干？",[822,1033,1034],{},"我不管成功的概率是100 比1，还是1000 比1，我都不做这样的事。假设你递给我一把枪，里面有1000 个弹仓、100 万个弹仓，其中只有一个弹仓里有一颗子弹，你说：把枪对准你的太阳穴，扣一下扳机，你要多少钱？我不干。你给我多少钱，我都不干。要是我赢了，我不需要那些钱；要是我输了，结果不用说了。这样的事，我一点都不想做，但是在金融领域，人们经常做这样的事，都不经过大脑。",[822,1036,1037],{},"有一本很好的书，不是书好，是书名好。这是一本烂书，但是书名起得很好，是沃尔特·古特曼写的，书名是《一生只需富一次》。这个道理难道不是很简单吗？",[822,1039,1040],{},"假设年初你有1 亿美元，如果不上杠杆，能赚10%，上杠杆的成功率是99%，能赚20%，年末时你有1.1 亿美元，还是1.2 亿美元，有区别吗？没一点区别。要是年末你死了，写讣告的人可能有个笔误，虽然你有1.2 亿，但他写成了1.1 亿。多赚的钱有什么用？一点用没有。对你、对你的家人，对别人，都没用。要是亏钱了的话，特别是给别人管钱，亏的不但是钱，而且颜面扫地、无地自容，把朋友的钱都亏了，没脸见人。",[822,1042,1043,1044,918],{},"我真理解不了，怎么有人会像这16 个人一样，智商很高、人品也好，却做这样的事，一定是疯了。他们吃到了苦果，因为他们太依赖外物了。我临时掌管所罗门的时候，他们和我说，六西格玛的事件、七西格玛的事件伤不着他们。他们错了。",[825,1045,1046],{},"只看过去的情况，无法确定未来金融事件发生的概率。他们太依赖数学了，以为知道了一只股票的贝塔系数，就知道了这只股票的风险。要我说，贝塔系数和股票的风险根本是八竿子打不着",[822,1048,1049,1050,1053,1054,1057],{},"会计算西格玛，不代表你就知道破产的风险。我是这么想的，不知道现在他们是不是也这么想了。说真的，我都不愿意以长期资本为例。",[825,1051,1052],{},"我们都有一定的概率会摊上类似的事，我们都有盲点，或许是因为我们了解了太多的细枝末节，把最关键的地方忽略了","。亨利·考夫曼说过一句话：\"",[825,1055,1056],{},"破产的有两种人，一种是什么都不知道的，一种是什么都知道的。","\"说起来，真是令人扼腕叹息。",[822,1059,1060],{},"同学们，引以为戒。我们基本上没借过钱，当然我们的保险公司里有浮存金。但是我压根没借过钱。我只有1万块钱的时候都不借钱，不借钱不一样吗？我钱少的时候做投资也很开心。我根本不在乎我到底是有1 万、10万，还是100 万。除非遇上了急事，比如生了大病急需用钱。",[822,1062,1063,1066,1067,1070],{},[825,1064,1065],{},"当年我钱很少，但我也没盼着以后钱多了要过不一样的生活","。从衣食住行来看，你我之间有什么差别吗？我们穿一样的衣服，我们都能喝天赐的",[825,1068,1069],{},"可口可乐","，我们都能吃上麦当劳，还有更美味的DQ 冰淇淋，我们都住在冬暖夏凉的房子里，我们都在大屏幕上看橄榄球赛。你在大电视上看，我也在大电视上看。我们的生活完全一样，没多大差别。要是你生了大病，会得到良好的治疗。如果我得了大病，也会得到良好的治疗。我们唯一不一样的地方是我们出行的方式不同。我有一架小飞机，可以飞来飞去，我特别喜欢这架飞机，这是要花钱的。除了我们出行的方式不同，你说有什么是我能做，但你做不了的吗？",[822,1072,1073,1076,1077,1080],{},[825,1074,1075],{},"我有一份我热爱的工作，我一直都在做我喜欢的工作","。当年我觉得赚1000 美元是一大笔钱的时候，我就喜欢我的工作。同学们，",[825,1078,1079],{},"去做你们喜欢的工作","。要是你总做那些自己不喜欢的工作，只是为了让简历上的工作经历更漂亮，那你真是糊涂了。有一次，我去做一个演讲，来接我的是一个28 岁的哈佛大学的学生。我听他讲完了他的工作经历，觉得他很了不起。我问他：以后你有什么打算？他说：等我MBA 毕业后，可能先进一家咨询公司，这样能给简历增加一些分量。我说：你才28 岁，已经有这么漂亮的工作经历了，你的简历比一般人的漂亮10 倍。",[822,1082,1083],{},"你还接着做自己不喜欢的工作，不觉得有点像年轻的时候把性生活省下来，留到岁数大的时候再用吗？",[822,1085,1086,1089,1090,918],{},[825,1087,1088],{},"或早或晚，你们都应该开始做自己真心想做的事","。我觉得我说的话，大家都听明白了。各位毕业之后，挑一个自己真心喜欢的工作，别为了让自己的简历更漂亮而工作，要做自己真心喜欢的。时间久了，你的喜好可能会变，",[825,1091,1092],{},"但在做自己喜欢的事的时候，早晨你会从床上跳起来",[822,1094,1095,1096,1098,1099,1101,1102,1104],{},"我刚从哥伦比亚大学商学院毕业，就迫不及待地希望立刻为",[825,1097,843],{},"工作。",[825,1100,843],{},"说我要的薪水太高了，我说我不要工资。我一直骚扰他。回到奥马哈后，我做了三年股票经纪人，一直给",[825,1103,843],{},"写信，告诉他我发现的投资机会。最后，我终于得到了机会，在他手下工作了一两年。那是一段宝贵的经历。",[822,1106,1107,1108,1111],{},"总之，我做的工作始终都是我喜欢的。",[825,1109,1110],{},"你财富自由之后想做什么工作，现在就该做什么工作，这样的工作才是理想的工作。做这样的工作，你会很开心，能学到东西，能充满激情。每天会从床上跳起来，一天不工作都不行","。或许以后你喜欢的东西会变，但是现在做你喜欢的工作，你会收获很多。我根本不在乎工资是多少。",[822,1113,1114,1115],{},"不知怎么，扯得有点远了。总之，如果你现在有1 块钱，以为将来有2 块钱的时候，自己能比现在过得更幸福，你可能想错了。你应该找到自己真心喜欢做的事情，投入地去做。别以为赚10 倍或20 倍能解决生活中的所有问题，这样的想法很容易把你带到沟里去。",[825,1116,1117,1118,1120],{},"在不该借钱的时候借钱，或者急功近利、",[877,1119,125],{"href":890},"取巧，做自己不该做的事，将来都没地方买后悔药。",[929,1122,1124],{"id":1123},"_3学生您喜欢什么样的公司","3.学生：您喜欢什么样的公司？",[822,1126,1127,1129,1130,1133],{},[825,1128,839],{},"：我喜欢我能看懂的生意。",[825,1131,1132],{},"先从能不能看懂开始，我用这一条筛选，90%的公司都被过滤掉了","。我不懂的东西很多，好在我懂的东西足够用了。世界如此之大，几乎所有公司都是公众持股的。所有的美国公司，随便挑。首先，有些东西明显知道是自己不懂的。不懂的东西就不能做。",[822,1135,1136,1137,1139,1140,1142,1143,1145],{},"有些东西是你能看懂的。",[825,1138,1069],{},"，是我们都能看懂的，谁都能看懂。",[825,1141,1069],{},"这个产品从1886 年起基本没变过。",[825,1144,1069],{},"的生意很简单，但是不容易。我不喜欢很容易的生意，生意很容易，会招来竞争对手。",[822,1147,1148],{},[825,1149,1150,1151,1154,1155,918,1157,1159],{},"我喜欢有",[877,1152,74],{"href":1153},"\u002Fhuchenghe","的生意。我希望拥有一座价值连城的城堡，守护城堡的公爵德才兼备。我希望这座城堡周围有宽广的",[877,1156,74],{"href":1153},[877,1158,74],{"href":1153},"的表现形式有很多。",[822,1161,1162,1163,1166,1167,1169,1170,1175,1176,1178,1179,918],{},"我们的汽车保险公司",[825,1164,1165],{},"GE","ICO 的",[877,1168,74],{"href":1153},"是低成本。汽车保险是必须买的，每辆车都要买一份。我们没办法让一个人买20 份车险，但是他必须买一份。人们买车险看的是什么？看服务和价格。在大多数人眼里，",[825,1171,1172,1173],{},"各家保险公司的服务大同小异，所以人们买车险最后主要看价格。因此我们必须是成本最低的，这是我们的",[877,1174,74],{"href":1153},"。只要我们的成本比竞争对手又低了一些，我们的",[877,1177,74],{"href":1153},"里就多了一两条鲨鱼。如果你拥有一座漂亮的城堡，不管什么时候，总会有人来进攻，要把城堡从你手里抢走。我希望要的城堡是我能看懂的，而且城堡周围要有",[877,1180,74],{"href":1153},[822,1182,1183,1184,1186,1187,1189,1190,1192,1193,1195,1196,1198,1199,1201,1202,1204,1205,1208],{},"30 年前，伊士曼柯达的",[877,1185,74],{"href":1153},"和",[825,1188,1069],{},"的",[877,1191,74],{"href":1153},"一样宽。那时候，你想给自己六个月大的孩子照一张相，希望20 年后，50 年后，相片还能一样清晰。你不是专业的摄影师，不知道照片到底能不能保留到20 年或50 年之后，只能选择最值得信赖的胶卷公司。你要拍的照片对你有很重要的纪念意义，不能马虎。柯达公司承诺今天拍的照片在20 年到50 年后仍然栩栩如生。30 年前，柯达深受人们的信任，柯达拥有",[877,1194,74],{"href":1153},"。柯达拥有的是心理份额，市场份额算什么，我说的是心理份额。柯达的黄色小盒子在整个美国、在全世界所有人的心里都有一席之地，人们都知道柯达是最好的。这是用多少钱都买不来的。后来，柯达的",[877,1197,74],{"href":1153},"还在，但是却被削弱了。这不是乔治·费舍尔的错，乔治做得很好，但柯达的",[877,1200,74],{"href":1153},"变窄了。柯达眼看着富士攻了过来，富士不断地蚕食柯达的",[877,1203,74],{"href":1153},"。柯达眼看着富士成为奥运会的赞助商。过去在人们心目中，只有柯达才能配得上拍摄奥运会，富士把柯达的光环抢走了。",[825,1206,1207],{},"富士抢了柯达的声誉，也抢走了柯达在人们心目中的份额","。富士逐渐开始和柯达平起平坐。",[822,1210,1211,1213,1214,1189,1216,1218,1219,1189,1221,1223,1224,1226,1227,1229,1230,940,1233],{},[825,1212,1069],{},"没这样的遭遇。现在",[825,1215,1069],{},[877,1217,74],{"href":1153},"比30 年前更宽了。",[825,1220,1069],{},[877,1222,74],{"href":1153},"，你看不到它每天在加宽。但是每次",[825,1225,1069],{},"在某个国家投资开一家新工厂，新工厂不赚钱，要20 年后才能赚钱，它的",[877,1228,74],{"href":1153},"都会变宽一点。",[825,1231,1232],{},"万事万物都无时无刻不在发生微小的改变，不是朝一个方向，就是另一个方向。十年后，我们就能看到明显的区别。我经常对",[825,1234,1235,1236,1238,1239,1241],{},"子公司的管理者说，加宽",[877,1237,74],{"href":1153},"，要往",[877,1240,74],{"href":1153},"里扔鳄鱼、鲨鱼，把竞争对手挡在外面。这要靠服务、靠产品质量、靠成本，有时候要靠专利或营业地点。我要找的就是这样的生意。",[822,1243,1244,1245,1248,1249,1251,1252,1254,1255,1257,1258,1260,1261,1263],{},"在哪能找到这样的生意呢？",[825,1246,1247],{},"我从那些简单的产品里寻找好生意","。像甲骨文、莲花、",[825,1250,1012],{},"这些公司，我搞不懂它们的",[877,1253,74],{"href":1153},"十年之后会怎样。盖茨是我遇到过的最优秀的商业奇才，",[825,1256,1012],{},"也拥有巨大的领先优势，但我真不知道",[825,1259,1012],{},"十年后会怎样，无法确切地知道",[825,1262,1012],{},"的竞争对手十年后会怎样。",[822,1265,1266,1267,1069,1270,1069,1273,1276],{},"我知道口香糖生意十年后会怎样。互联网再怎么发展，都不会改变我们嚼口香糖的习惯，好像没什么能改变我们嚼口香糖的习惯。肯定会有更多新品种的口香糖出现，但白箭和黄箭会消失吗？不会。你给我10 亿美元，让我去做口香糖生意，去挫挫箭牌的威风，我做不到。",[825,1268,1269],{},"我就是这么思考生意的。我自己设想，要是我有10 亿美元，能伤着这家公司吗？给我100 亿美元，让我在全球和",[825,1271,1272],{},"竞争，我能伤着",[825,1274,1275],{},"吗？我做不到。这样的生意是好生意","。你要说给我一些钱，问我能不能伤着其他行业的一些公司，我知道怎么做。",[822,1278,1279,1280,1283],{},"我寻找的是简单的生意。它们很容易理解，当前的经济状况良好，管理层德才兼备，这样的生意，我能大概看出来它们十年后会怎样。有的生意，我看不出来十年后会怎样，我不买。",[825,1281,1282],{},"一只股票，假设从明天起纽约股票交易所关门五年，我就不愿意持有了，这样的股票，我不买","。我买一家农场，五年里没人给我的农场报价，只要农场的生意好，我就开心。我买一个房子，五年里没人给我的房子报价，只要房子的回报率达到了我的预期，我就开心。人们买完股票后，第二天一早就盯着股价，看股价决定自己的投资做得好不好。糊涂到家了。",[822,1285,1286,843,1289,1292,1293,1295],{},[825,1287,1288],{},"买股票就是买公司，这是",[825,1290,1291],{},"教给我的最基本的道理","。买的不是股票，是公司的一部分所有权。只要公司生意好，而且你买的价格不是高得离谱，你的收益也差不了。投资股票就这么简单。要买你能看懂的公司，就像买农场，你肯定买自己觉得合适的。没什么复杂的。这个思想不是我发明的，都是",[825,1294,843],{},"提出来的。我特别走运。19 岁的时候，我有幸读到了《聪明投资者》。我六七岁的时候就对股票感兴趣，11 岁时第一次买股票。我一直都在自己摸索，看走势图、看成交量，做各种技术分析的计算，什么路子都试过。后来，我读到了《聪明投资者》，书里说，买股票，买的不是代码，不是上蹿下跳的报价，买股票就是买公司。我转变到这种思维方式以后，一切都理顺了。道理很简单。所以说，我们买我们能看懂的公司。",[822,1297,1298,1299,1301,1302,1304,1305],{},"在座的各位，没有看不懂",[825,1300,1069],{},"公司的，但是某些新兴的互联网公司呢，我敢说，在座的各位，没一个能看懂的。今年在",[825,1303,940],{},"的股东大会上，我说要是我在商学院教课，期末考试时，我会出这样的题目，告诉学生一家互联网公司的信息，让他们给这家公司估值。哪个学生给出了估值，我就给他不及格。(笑)我不知道怎么给这样的公司估值，从人们每天的行为看，他们觉得自己能做到，买互联网公司更刺激。有的人把买卖股票当成看赛马娱乐，那无所谓了。但是如果你是在投资的话，投资是把资金投进去，确定将来能以合适的收益率收回资金。无论什么时候，都要知道自己在做什么，这样才能做好投资。",[825,1306,1307],{},"但必须把生意看懂了，有的生意是我们能看懂的，但不是所有生意我们都能看懂。",[929,1309,1311],{"id":1310},"_4学生您在前面讲到了要看懂生意讲了买股票就是买公司您还提到了投资一家公司要获得合适的回报率您只说了一半到底该花多少钱买一家公司呢您如何决定一家公司的公允价格","4.学生：您在前面讲到了要看懂生意，讲了买股票就是买公司。您还提到了，投资一家公司要获得合适的回报率。您只说了一半，到底该花多少钱买一家公司呢？您如何决定一家公司的公允价格？",[822,1313,1314,1316,1317],{},[825,1315,839],{},"：多少钱买合适，很难决定。一家公司的确定性如果不是特别高，我不买。但是确定性特别高的话，价格一般都不便宜，实现不了多高的回报率。一件事，谁都做得到，凭什么有每年40%的回报率？",[825,1318,1319],{},"我们想的不是怎么获得超高的回报率，而是始终牢记永远不亏钱。",[822,1321,1322,1323,1326,1327,1330,1331,1334],{},"1972 年，我们买了",[825,1324,1325],{},"喜诗糖果","。当时喜诗每年能卖出1600 万磅糖果，每磅售价1.95 美元，每磅利润0.25 美元，税前利润是400 万美元。我们花了2500 万买到了喜诗，",[825,1328,1329],{},"喜诗用不着投入资本","。我和我的合伙人查理在研究这家公司的时候，我们特别看好的一点是，",[825,1332,1333],{},"它有定价权，有提价的潜力","。1.95 美元一盒的糖果，能否轻松提价到 2 美元或2.25 美元呢？如果能卖到2.25 美元，每磅多赚0.30 美元，按1600 万磅的销量，能多赚480 万美元，2500 万美元的买入价很合适。",[822,1336,1337,1338,1341,1342,1344,1345,1347,1348,1351],{},"我们投资这么多年，从没请过咨询公司。我们眼中的咨询是去喜诗的店里买一盒糖果，尝一尝。我们确切知道的是，",[825,1339,1340],{},"喜诗在加州拥有心理份额，喜诗在人们心中很特别","。加州的每个人心中都有",[825,1343,1325],{},"，人们对",[825,1346,1325],{},"的印象特别好。情人节送女孩一盒喜诗，会得到女孩的吻。如果被女孩扇一巴掌，我们就没生意可做了。只要送喜诗能得到女孩的吻，我们就在人们的心中拥有一席之地。",[825,1349,1350],{},"人们一想到","喜诗糖果，就想到亲吻。只要我们能在人们心中稳固这个形象，我们就能提价。",[822,1353,1354],{},"1972 年买入喜诗之后，我每年都在圣诞节的第二天12 月26 日提价，因为圣诞节正是我们大卖的时候。今年我们能赚6000 万美元，我们能卖出3000 万磅，每磅赚2 美元。还是那家公司，还是一样的配方，什么都没变，我们今年能赚6000 万美元，喜诗还是用不着投入一分钱资本。10 年以后，喜诗会赚更多的钱。在这6000 万美元里，有5500 万美元是圣诞节之前的三个周赚的。我们公司的主题歌是\"耶稣基督真是我们的好朋友\"。",[822,1356,1357,1358,1361,1362,1364],{},"喜诗是个好生意。这个生意最关键的地方在哪呢？大家想一下。",[825,1359,1360],{},"大多数人买盒装的巧克力不是为了自己吃，而是作为礼物送人，在别人过生日或者节日到来的时候，送给别人","。每年的情人节是我们全年销售额最高的一天。圣诞季是我们全年销售额最高的一季。女人们买",[825,1363,1325],{},"为圣诞节做准备，她们会提前买，购买时间是圣诞节前的两三个周。男人在情人节当天买喜诗。男人们在开车回家的路上，收音机里传出了我们投放的广告。内疚、内疚、内疚，男人们左右变道，心里非常不安。听到了我们的广告，他们不带一盒喜诗回家都不敢进门。所以每年的情人节是我们全年销售额最高的一天。",[822,1366,1367],{},"多亏了我的聪明才智，现在喜诗每磅售价11 美元，假设另一种糖果每磅售价6 美元，多年来，你的妻子心里装满了对喜诗的良好印象，你能想象这样的情景吗？情人节那天，你走进家门，把一盒糖果递给你妻子，说：\"亲爱的，今年我买了便宜货。\"这根本不行。喜诗拥有提价的潜力，人们对价格不是特别敏感。",[822,1369,1370,1371,1373],{},"再想想迪斯尼。迪斯尼的一部电影售价大概是16.95 美元，要不就是18.95 美元。全世界的人，特别是全世界的母亲们，心里都对迪斯尼有好感。我一说迪斯尼这个名字，在座的各位脑海里都能浮现出一些东西。要是我说环球影业或者二十世纪福克斯，大家脑子里不会出现什么特别的东西。但是我一说迪斯尼，各位脑子里会有一种特别的感觉。全世界都如此。假设你在带几个小孩子，希望每天能给他们找点事做，让他们老实一会，自己好清静清静。大家都知道小孩子能把一个电影看二十遍。你去音像店买电影。你会拿10 部电影，坐在那把每一部都花一个半小时看一遍，决定哪部适合小孩观看吗？不会。假设有一盘卖16.95 美元，但迪斯尼的那盘卖17.95 美元，你知道，选迪斯尼那盘错不了，所以你就买迪斯尼的了。有的事你不想在上面花时间，不会精挑细选。这样的话，迪斯尼的每部电影能多赚一些，而且卖得更火。因此，迪斯尼做的是特别好的生意，竞争对手很难赶上迪斯尼。如何才能打造一个在全世界与迪斯尼分庭抗礼的",[877,1372,141],{"href":990},"？梦工厂现在正在做这件事。如何才能取代迪斯尼在人们心目中的地位？怎么才能让人们脑子里想到的是环球影业，不是迪斯尼？能让家长走到音像店里选环球影业，而不是迪斯尼吗？这些都做不到。",[822,1375,1376,1379,1380,1382,1383,1385,1386,1388,1389,918],{},[825,1377,1378],{},"在世界各地，人们一想到","可口可乐，就想到快乐。无论是在哪，迪斯尼乐园、世界杯、奥运会，人们快乐的地方都有",[825,1381,1069],{},"。开心快乐和",[825,1384,1069],{},"如影随形。不管你给我多少钱，让我成立个皇冠可乐公司，让全球的50亿人爱上皇冠可乐，我做不到。不管怎么折腾，不管用什么办法，打折促销、周末活动，都动不了",[825,1387,1069],{},"。我们要找的就是这样的生意，这就是",[877,1390,74],{"href":1153},[822,1392,1393,1399,1400,1402,1403,1405,1406,1408,1409,1411,1412,1414,1415,1418,1419,1421],{},[825,1394,1395,1396,1398],{},"要把",[877,1397,74],{"href":1153},"变得越来越宽","。作为",[825,1401,1325],{},"的经营者，要想尽一切办法保证人们送出",[825,1404,1325],{},"作为礼物时，收到礼物的人会很开心。要保证盒子里的糖果的质量，要重视糖果销售人员的服务。我们在旺季的时候忙得要命。人们集中在圣诞节前几周和情人节当天购买，要在店铺外面排很长的队。假设下午五点的时候，我们的一位女售货员把最后一盒糖果卖给最后一位顾客，这位顾客前面有二三十人，已经等了半天。如果我们的售货员对最后这位顾客微笑，我们的",[877,1407,74],{"href":1153},"就变宽了。如果她对最后这位顾客咆哮，我们的",[877,1410,74],{"href":1153},"就变窄了。这是我们看不见的，但它确实每天都在发生，这是我们能否让",[877,1413,74],{"href":1153},"更宽的关键。",[825,1416,1417],{},"要重视产品的整个生产和销售环节，保证人们一想到","喜诗糖果，就有",[825,1420,1325],{},"与快乐同在的感觉。这是这个生意的精髓。",[929,1423,1425],{"id":1424},"_5学生有的公司单看财务数字很贵您买过这样的公司吗投资中定量分析和定性分析各占多少","5.学生：有的公司单看财务数字很贵，您买过这样的公司吗？投资中，定量分析和定性分析各占多少？",[822,1427,1428,1430],{},[825,1429,839],{},"：最值得买的公司，是那些你觉得从数字上看很贵，舍不得买，但还是很想买的公司。这说明你太看好这家公司的产品了。这样的公司不是别人抽剩了、扔掉的烟头，而是让人难以抗拒的好生意。",[822,1432,1433,1434,1437],{},"我曾经买下了一家生产风车的公司。生产风车的公司，绝对是烟头，真的。我买的特别便宜，我买的价格只有营运资金的三分之一。我们从这笔投资里赚钱了，但是这个钱只能赚一次，不能重复赚。",[825,1435,1436],{},"买这样的公司，盈利是一次性的","。投资不能一直这么做，我已经过了那个阶段了。我还买过电车公司，各种各样的烟头都捡过。",[822,1439,1440],{},"在定性方面，我在电话里和对方聊几句，就能把定性因素搞明白。我们买入的所有公司，我们花在分析上的时间都只有五分钟、十分钟左右。今年我们收购了两家公司，其中GeneralRe 是一笔180 亿美元的交易。我都没去过GeneralRe 的总部，希望它不是一家皮包公司。(笑)别只有几个人在那边，每个月编一些数字发给我，我从来没去过这家公司。ExecutiveJet 是一家共享租赁喷气飞机的公司，我收购它之前，也没去这家公司看过。三年前，我为我的家人购买了一项飞机租赁计划中1\u002F4 的飞行服务。我体验过这家公司的服务，感觉它发展的相当好。我看完它的财务数字，就决定买了。",[822,1442,1443],{},[825,1444,1445,1446,1449,1450,1452,1453,1455,1456,1458,1459,1461],{},"一门生意，要是你不能一眼看懂，再花一两个月的时间，你还是看不懂。要看懂一门生意，必须有足够的背景知识才行，而且要清楚自己知道什么，不知道什么。这是关键。我常说的",[877,1447,33],{"href":1448},"\u002Fnengliquan","就是这个意思，要清楚自己的",[877,1451,33],{"href":1448},"。每个人都有自己的",[877,1454,33],{"href":1448},"，重要的不是",[877,1457,33],{"href":1448},"有多大，而是待在",[877,1460,33],{"href":1448},"的范围之内。",[822,1463,1464,1465,1467,1468,1471,1472,1475,1476,1479,1480,1483],{},"如果主板中有几千家公司，你的",[877,1466,33],{"href":1448},"只涵盖其中的30 家，只要你清楚是哪30 家，就可以了。你要对这30家公司特别了解，不是说你要读很多东西，做很多功课，才能把它们弄明白。我年轻的时候，为了熟悉各行各业的公司，做过大量功课。我做功课的方法是和菲利普·",[825,1469,1470],{},"费雪","学的，所谓的\"",[825,1473,1474],{},"四处闲聊","\"的方法。我出去调研，和公司的客户聊，和公司的前员工聊，有的时候还和供应商聊，只要能对了解公司有帮助的人，我都找他们聊。我总是找业内人士请教，如果我对煤炭行业感兴趣，我会把煤炭公司都跑一遍。我问每个CEO：\"",[825,1477,1478],{},"要是你只能买一家煤炭公司的股票，除了你所在的公司以外，你会买哪家的？为什么？","\"把得到的信息拼凑起来，经过一段时间，就能把这个行业弄明白。特别有意思，每次问关于竞争对手的问题，得到的回答都差不多。我会问：\"",[825,1481,1482],{},"要是你有一颗银子弹，可以用它干掉一个竞争对手，你会干掉谁？为什么？","\"通过这个问题，能了解行业中的佼佼者是谁。任何一个生意，里面都有很深的学问。",[822,1485,1486,1489,1490],{},[825,1487,1488],{},"我年轻的时候挑我觉得自己能看懂的公司，下了很大功夫，现在用不着重新做功课了","。这是做投资的一个好处，不是一出来什么新东西，就一定要跟着学。愿意学的话，也可以。我的意思是，如果你40 年前看懂了箭牌的口香糖生意，今天你还是能看懂这门生意。",[825,1491,1492],{},"这些东西，不会因为时间的改变，就能变出什么新花样来。经过积累，脑子里自然会形成一个数据库。",[822,1494,1495],{},"有个叫Frank Rooney 的人，他经营了Melville 公司许多年。他岳父去世了，留下了H.H.Brown 制鞋厂。",[822,1497,1498],{},"Frank Rooney 请高盛把这家鞋厂卖出去。有一天，他和我的一个朋友在佛罗里达州打高尔夫球，随口和我朋友说到了这件事。我朋友说：\"你可以打电话问问沃伦。\"他打完球之后给我打了电话，我们聊了五分钟，这笔交易就成了。但是我早就知道Frank 这个人，也了解这门生意。我大概了解鞋厂这个生意，所以我能做这个决定。在定量方面，我必须决定多少钱合适。价钱行就行，不行就不行。我从来不谈来谈去，不讨价还价。我觉得对方的出价合理，我就买。要是不合理，买不到我也不在意，还是和以前没这家公司时一样开心。",[929,1500,1502],{"id":1501},"_6学生可口可乐的公告称第四季度盈利会下降亚洲金融危机对可口可乐有何影响","6.学生：可口可乐的公告称第四季度盈利会下降，亚洲金融危机对可口可乐有何影响？",[822,1504,1505,1507,1508,1510,1511,1513,1514,1516,1517,1520,1521,1523],{},[825,1506,839],{},"：我看好",[825,1509,1069],{},"。在今后20 年里，",[825,1512,1069],{},"在国际市场的增长速度会远远超过在美国的增长速度。按人均饮用量计算，",[825,1515,1069],{},"在美国也会增长，但是它在国际市场上增速更快。",[825,1518,1519],{},"现在它面临一段艰难的时期，可能三个月、可能三年，谁都说不好，但是不会是20 年","。全世界的人都在努力工作，人们发现",[825,1522,1069],{},"很便宜，从自己每天的工资里拿出一丁点就能买一罐，我是一天喝五罐。",[822,1525,1526,1527,1529,1530,1532,1533,1535,1536,1538,1539,1541,1542,1544],{},"1936 年，我花25 美分买6 瓶",[825,1528,1069],{},"，然后拿出去卖5 美分一瓶。那时候一瓶6.5 盎司，瓶子的押金是两美分，零售价是5 美分一瓶。现在一罐12 盎司的，要是周末促销时买，或者买量贩装的，12 盎司的",[825,1531,1069],{},"还不到20 美分。所以说，现在买一盎司",[825,1534,1069],{},"，价格只有1936 年的两倍多一点。人们收入水平越来越高，",[825,1537,1069],{},"这个产品却越来越便宜。人们当然喜欢了。",[825,1540,1069],{},"有100 多年的历史，在市场上占据统治地位，但是在全球200 多个国家，",[825,1543,1069],{},"的人均饮用量每年都在增长，太了不起了。",[822,1546,1547,1549,1550,1552,1553,1555,1556,918,1558,1561],{},[825,1548,1069],{},"的销售额能达到几百亿美元，真正的秘诀是",[825,1551,1069],{},"有一个特点，这家公司的所有可乐产品都有这个特点，我喜欢",[825,1554,1069],{},"这个名字，所以把它们统称为",[825,1557,1069],{},[825,1559,1560],{},"可乐没有味觉记忆","。9 点钟喝一罐、11 点钟喝一罐、1 点钟喝一罐、5 点钟喝一罐，5 点钟喝的那罐和早晨喝的一样好喝。",[822,1563,1564,1565,918,1568,1570,1571,1573,1574,1576,1577,1579],{},"奶油苏打水、根汁汽水、橙汁、葡萄汁，这些都不行，这些饮料喝多了会腻。",[825,1566,1567],{},"大多数食品和饮料都这样，吃多了或者喝多了会觉得腻",[825,1569,1325],{},"就是。每次",[825,1572,1325],{},"新员工上岗的时候，公司都告诉他们所有糖果可以随便吃。第一天，他们使劲往嘴里塞，一个周以后，他们就不怎么吃了，好像得自己花钱买一样。因为巧克力吃多了会腻，很多东西都会腻。",[825,1575,1069],{},"没有味觉记忆，全世界很多人都喝很多可乐，很多美国人一天喝五罐，健怡可乐的话，一天能喝七八罐，其他饮料都不行。这就是为什么",[825,1578,1069],{},"的人均饮用量如此之高。",[822,1581,1582,1583,1585,1586,1588,1589,1591,1592,1594,1595,1597],{},"地球上这个区域或者再向北一些的区域，人均饮水量是每天64 盎司，这64 盎司可以都换成",[825,1584,1069],{},"，一开始就喜欢喝可乐的人，喝多少都不会腻。换成别的都不行，整天吃一样东西，没多长时间就会有些恶心。这是很关键的一点。如今，",[825,1587,1069],{},"每天在全球卖出18 亿瓶，这个数字每年都会增加。",[825,1590,1069],{},"的销量在每个国家都会增长，在每个国家的人均饮用量都会增长。20 年后，",[825,1593,1069],{},"在国际市场的增长速度会超过美国市场，我更喜欢",[825,1596,1069],{},"的国际市场，它在国际市场上增长潜力更大。",[822,1599,1600,1601,1603,1604,1606,1607,1609,1610,1612,1613,1616],{},"目前，",[825,1602,1069],{},"在国际市场遇到了暂时的困难，但这根本算不上什么事。",[825,1605,1069],{},"是1919 年上市的，当时它的股价是每股40 美元。1880 年代，钱德勒家族在",[825,1608,1069],{},"上市之前用2000 美元把这个生意买了下来。1919年，",[825,1611,1069],{},"的发行价是40 美元。一年后它的股价是19 美元，一年内下跌了50%。你可能把这当成天大的事，又是担心蔗糖价格上涨，又是担心装瓶商发难，什么都担心。",[825,1614,1615],{},"你总是能找到各种理由，说当时不是买入的最佳时机","。几年后，又出现了大萧条、二战、蔗糖定量配给、核武器危机，等等，总是有不买的理由。但是，要是你当年花40 美元买了一股并把股息再投资，现在都值500 万美元左右了。",[822,1618,1619,1622,1623,1625,1626,1628,1629,1632],{},[825,1620,1621],{},"只要是好生意，别的什么东西都不重要。只要把生意看懂了，就能赚大钱。择时很容易掉坑里","。只要是好生意，我就不管那些大事小事，也不考虑今年明年如何之类的问题。美国在不同时期都实施过价格管制，再好的生意都扛不住。政府实施价格管制的话，我没办法在12 月26 日提高",[825,1624,1325],{},"的售价。价格管制，我们不是没经历过。但是，政府实施价格管制不会把",[825,1627,1325],{},"变成烂生意，价格管制总有结束的一天。美国在70 年代初就有过价格管制。好生意，你能看出来它将来会怎样，但是不知道会是什么时候。",[825,1630,1631],{},"看一个生意，你就一门心思琢磨它将来会怎么样，别太纠结什么时候发生","。把生意的将来能怎么样看透了，到底是什么时候，就没多大关系了。",[929,1634,1636],{"id":1635},"_7学生能否讲讲您在商业中犯的错误","7.学生：能否讲讲您在商业中犯的错误？",[822,1638,1639,1641,1642,1645,1646,918],{},[825,1640,839],{},"：对于我和我的合伙人查理·",[825,1643,1644],{},"芒格","来说，",[825,1647,1648],{},"我们犯过的最大的错误不是做错了什么，而是该做的没做",[822,1650,1651,1652,1654,1655,1657,1658,1661],{},"在这些错误中，我们对生意很了解，本来应该行动，但不知道怎么了，我们就在那犹豫来犹豫去，什么都没做。有些东西我们不明白就算了，但有些东西是我们能看明白的，本来可以赚几十亿、几百亿的，却眼睁睁看着机会溜走了。我本来可以买",[825,1653,1012],{},"赚几十亿，但这不算数，因为我一直搞不懂",[825,1656,1012],{},"。但是医药股，我本来是可以赚到几十亿的，这些钱是我该赚到的，我却没赚到。",[825,1659,1660],{},"当克林顿当局提出医疗改革方案后，所有的医药股都崩盘了","。我们本来可以买入医药股大赚特赚的，因为我能看懂医药股，我却没做这笔投资。80 年代的时候，我本来可以买入房利美大赚一笔，我能看懂房利美，但是我却没买。这些都是代价几亿美元或几十亿美元的错误，在按一般公认会计原则编制的报表中体现不出来。",[822,1663,1664,1665,1668],{},"至于各位能看到的错误，几年前我买入全美航空优先股是个错误。当时我手里闲钱很多。",[825,1666,1667],{},"手里一有闲钱，我就容易犯错","。查理让我去酒吧喝酒去，别在办公室里待着。但我还是留在办公室，兜里有钱，就做了傻事。每次都这样。当时我买了全美航空的优先股。没人逼我，是我自己要买的。现在我有一个800 热线电话，每次我一想买航空股，就打这个电话。电话那边的人会安抚我。我说：\"我是沃伦，又犯了想买航空公司的老毛病。\"他们说：\"继续讲，别停下，别挂电话，别冲动。\"最后那股劲就过去了。",[822,1670,1671,1672,1675],{},"我买了全美航空以后，差点把所有钱都亏进去，真是差一点全亏了。我活该亏钱。我买入全美航空，是因为它是一只很合适的证券，但它的生意不好。对所罗门的投资也一样。",[825,1673,1674],{},"我根本不想买它的生意，只是觉得它的证券便宜。这也算是一种错误。本来不太喜欢公司的生意，却因为喜欢证券的条款而买了","。这样的错误我过去犯过，将来可能还会犯。最大的错误还是该做的没做。",[822,1677,1678,1679,1682,1683,1685,1686,1688,1689,918],{},"当年我只有1 万美元的时候，我从里面拿出2000 美元投入到了辛克莱加油站，结果赔进去了。我这笔投资的",[877,1680,115],{"href":1681},"\u002Fjihuichengben","到现在都有60 亿美元了，多大的错误啊！每次",[825,1684,940],{},"股价下跌，我都感觉心里好受一些，因为我投资加油站的",[877,1687,115],{"href":1681},"随之下降。那可是20%的",[877,1690,115],{"href":1681},[822,1692,1693,1694,1697,1698,1700],{},"我想告诉大家，",[825,1695,1696],{},"人们总说通过错误学习，我觉得最好是尽量从别人的错误里学习。不过，在","伯克希尔，我们的处事原则是，过去的事就让它过去。我的合伙人查理·",[825,1699,1644],{},"，我们一起合作40 年了，我们从来没红过脸。我们对很多东西看法不一样，但是我们不争不吵。我们从来不想已经过去的事。我们觉得未来有那么多值得期待的，何必对过去耿耿于怀。不纠结过去的事，纠结也没用。人生只能向前看。",[822,1702,1703,1704,1706,1707,1710,1711,1714,1715,1717],{},"你们从错误里或许能学到东西，但最重要的是只投资自己能看懂的生意。如果你像很多人一样，跳出了自己的",[877,1705,33],{"href":1448},"，听别人的消息买了自己毫不了解的股票，犯了这样的错，你需要反省，要记得只投资自己能看懂的。你做投资决策的时候，就应该对着镜子，自言自语：\"我要用每股55 美元的价格买入100 股通用汽车，理由是……\"自己要买什么，得对自己负责。",[825,1708,1709],{},"一定要有个理由，说不出来理由，别买","。是因为别人在和你闲聊时告诉你这只股票能涨吗？这个理由不行。是因为成交量异动或者走势图发出了信号吗？这样的理由不行。",[825,1712,1713],{},"你的理由，一定是你为什么要买这个生意","。我们恪守这个原则，这是本·",[825,1716,843],{},"教我的。",[929,1719,1721],{"id":1720},"_8学生能否谈谈当前脆弱的经济形势和利率问题对将来的经济形势怎么看","8.学生：能否谈谈当前脆弱的经济形势和利率问题？对将来的经济形势怎么看？",[822,1723,1724,1726,1727,1730],{},[825,1725,839],{},"：我不研究宏观问题。",[825,1728,1729],{},"投资中最紧要的是弄清什么事是重要的、可知的。如果一件事是不重要的、不可知的，那就别管了","。你刚才说的宏观东西很重要，但是我觉得是不可知的。",[822,1732,1733,1734,1736],{},"看懂",[825,1735,1069],{},"、看懂箭牌、看懂伊士曼柯达，这些是可知的。大家都能看懂这些生意，这些生意是可知的。看懂了公司的生意之后，还要看你得出的估值、公司的价格等等。我们在决定买不买一家公司时，从来不把我们对宏观问题的感觉作为依据。我们不看关于利率或公司盈利的预测，看了没用。",[822,1738,1739,1740,1742,1743,1746],{},"1972 年我们买了",[825,1741,1325],{},"，后来没多久尼克松就实施了价格管制，即使我们提前知道了，又能怎样？我们没错过喜诗，花2500 万买下来了，现在它一年的税前利润就有6000 万美元。有的预测我们根本不会，我们不想因为这样的预测而错过明智的投资机会。",[825,1744,1745],{},"宏观问题相关的东西，我们根本不看不听不理会","。一般的咨询机构的套路是这样的，先把他们的经济学家拉出来溜两圈，讲一些大的宏观格局，然后自上而下地分析。我们觉得那些都是胡扯。就算阿兰·格林斯潘和罗伯特·鲁宾一个在我左耳朵边，一个在我右耳朵边，悄悄告诉我他们今后一年会怎么做，我都不为所动，我该出多少钱买ExecutiveJet 或GeneralRe，还是出多少钱，我还是会我行我素。",[929,1748,1750],{"id":1749},"_9学生和身处华尔街相比住在偏远的小城市有什么好处","9.学生：和身处华尔街相比，住在偏远的小城市有什么好处？",[822,1752,1753,1755,1756],{},[825,1754,839],{},"：我在华尔街工作过一两年，我在东西海岸都有朋友。我喜欢拜访他们。每次和他们见面，都能得到一些灵感。但",[825,1757,1758],{},"思考投资的最佳方法还是独自一人待在房间里，静静地想。要是这样不行，别的办法也都没用。",[822,1760,1761],{},[825,1762,1763],{},"在任何类似市场的环境中，你都很容易受到影响，做出过激的反应，华尔街是个典型的市场环境。在华尔街，你觉得每天不做点什么都不行。",[822,1765,1766,1767,1769,1770,1772,1773],{},"钱德勒家族花了2000 美元买下了",[825,1768,1069],{},"公司，选中了",[825,1771,1069],{},"这样的公司，别的什么都不用做了，该做的事就是不做别的。1919 年都不应该卖，但是钱德勒家族后来把他们的股票卖了。你该怎么做呢？",[825,1774,1775],{},"一年找到一个好的投资机会，然后一直持有，等待它的潜力充分释放出来。",[822,1777,1778],{},"在一个人们每五分钟就来回喊报价的环境里，在一个别人总把各种报告塞到你面前的环境里，很难做到持有不动。华尔街靠折腾赚钱。你靠不折腾赚钱。要是在座的各位每天都相互交易自己的投资组合，所有人最后都会破产，所有的钱最后都会进到中间商的口袋里。换个做法，你们都持有一般公司组成的投资组合，50 年里你们都一动不动，最后你们都会很有钱，你们的券商会破产。",[822,1780,1781],{},"券商像这样一个医生，他让你换药的次数越多，他赚的越多。他要是给你一种药，把你的病根治了，他只能做成一笔买卖，一笔交易，然后就没了。如果他能让你相信每天换各种药吃对健康有益，这对他有好处，对卖药的有好处，你会亏很多钱。你的身体好不了，还会破财。",[822,1783,1784],{},"任何刺激你瞎折腾的环境，都要远离。华尔街无疑就是这样的环境。我回到奥马哈之后，每半年都去大城市一次。我每次都列一个清单，把自己要做的事写下来，比如要调研的公司等等。这些路费都没白花，该做完的事，做完了，我就回到奥马哈思考。",[929,1786,1788],{"id":1787},"_10学生伯克希尔和微软都不派息您怎么看","10.学生：伯克希尔和微软都不派息，您怎么看？",[822,1790,1791,1793,1794,940,1797,1800],{},[825,1792,839],{},"：伯克希尔",[825,1795,1796],{},"将来也不会派息，这个我敢保证。买了",[825,1798,1799],{},"的股票，只要做一件事：把","伯克希尔的股票放到保险箱里，每年拿出来抚摸一番。打开保险箱，拿出来，摸一摸，然后放回去。摸一摸，会有极大的满足感，我一点不夸张。",[822,1802,1803,1804,940,1807,1810,1811,1813,1814,1816,1817,1819,1820,1822,1823,1825],{},"问题的关键是，",[825,1805,1806],{},"我们能否让留在",[825,1808,1809],{},"的每一块钱以较高的速度增长，让钱生钱","。这是我们的任务。我和查理·",[825,1812,1644],{},"，我们自己的钱也在里面。我们不从",[825,1815,940],{},"拿多少工资，也不要期权，只想着怎么让留在",[825,1818,940],{},"的每一块钱以较高的速度增长。这项工作越来越难了，我们管理的资金越多，困难越大。假如",[825,1821,940],{},"的规模只有现在的1%，我们的收益率会高很多。我们经营",[825,1824,940],{},"是为股东经营的，但不是为了给股东派息而经营的。",[822,1827,1828,1831,1832,1834,1835,1837,1838,1840,1841,1843],{},[825,1829,1830],{},"目前我们赚到的每一块钱，留在公司而没派发的每一块钱，我们都让它生成了更多的钱","。把钱留在",[825,1833,940],{},"，可以赚到更多钱，派息的做法不明智。即使每个股东收到股息都不用交税，",[825,1836,940],{},"派息也是错误的做法，因为现在",[825,1839,940],{},"留下的每一块钱能赚来更多的钱。我们保证不了将来也能做到，总有一天会到头的。让资金持续增长是",[825,1842,940],{},"的目标，我们只用这一个标准衡量我们的表现。",[822,1845,1846,1847,1849],{},"我们不在乎我们的办公楼有多大，员工有多少。我们的总部有12 个员工，占地3500 平方英尺，",[825,1848,940],{},"一共有45000 名员工，我们会将这一切保持不变。我们衡量自己的标准是公司的表现如何，只有公司表现好，我们才会得到奖赏。说真的，现在比以前难多了。",[929,1851,1853],{"id":1852},"_11学生您刚才提到了找到好机会之后一直持有等待潜力充分释放出来怎么才能知道一笔投资的潜力充分释放出来了","11.学生：您刚才提到了找到好机会之后，一直持有，等待潜力充分释放出来。怎么才能知道一笔投资的潜力充分释放出来了？",[822,1855,1856,1858,1859,1861,1862,1864,1865,1867,1868,1870],{},[825,1857,839],{},"：最理想的情况是，买的时候，你觉得根本不会有卖出这一天。我买",[825,1860,1069],{},"的时候，不觉得它10 年或50 年后就奄奄一息了。可能会发生意外，但是我觉得概率几乎是零。我们特别想买入我们愿意永远持有的公司。我们希望买",[825,1863,940],{},"股票的人，也像我们这样想。我希望买",[825,1866,940],{},"股票的人打算永远持有。他们之后可能改变想法，但是我希望他们在最初买入的时候想的是永远持有",[825,1869,940],{},"。我不是说买股票只有这一种买法，只是希望我们能吸引到这样的投资者，不想让自己的投资者变来变去。",[822,1872,1873,1874,1876,1877,1880],{},"我衡量",[825,1875,940],{},"的标准是它的无为。如果我是一所教堂的牧师，教众每个周末都换一半，我不会说：\"太好了，看看我的教众，流动性多高，周转率多高。\"我希望教堂里每个周末来听讲的都是同一批人。我们在买公司的时候也是这个思维方式，",[825,1878,1879],{},"我们想买自己愿意永远持有的公司","。我们现在找不到很多这样的公司。",[822,1882,1883,1884,1887],{},"我刚开始做投资的时候，找到的投资机会特别多，钱很少。",[825,1885,1886],{},"在发现了更便宜的股票之后，为了买下来，总是要从手里的股票中挑一个最不看好的卖出去","。现在不一样了。我们希望自己买入的公司，现在看好，五年后一样看好。如果找到了大规模的收购机会，为了筹措资金，我们可能进行一些卖出交易，有这样的问题是好事。",[822,1889,1890,1893,1894,1896,1897,1899,1900,1903],{},[825,1891,1892],{},"不管买哪家公司，我们买的时候都不设定价格目标","。例如，我们是30 买的，从没想过涨到40、50、60 或100 就卖了，从来没这样过。当年的",[825,1895,1325],{},"是一家私人公司，我们花2500 万买下来了，买了之后就没想卖。我们没盘算说，要是有人出5000 万，我们就把",[825,1898,1325],{},"卖出去。看一家公司不能总想着多少钱卖出去，看一家公司正确的思维方式是，",[825,1901,1902],{},"长期来看，这家公司是否能越来越赚钱","？如果答案是能，别的问题都用不着问了。",[929,1905,1907],{"id":1906},"_12学生请讲一下您为什么投资所罗门公司还有拯救长期资本管理公司","12.学生：请讲一下您为什么投资所罗门公司，还有拯救长期资本管理公司？",[822,1909,1910,1912,1913,1916,1917,1919],{},[825,1911,839],{},"：那笔投资是1987 年9 月份做的，那年道指上涨了35%，我们卖了很多股票，当时所罗门这只证券的收益率有9%。我那时候钱很多，觉得很难找到合适的机会投出去。我不喜欢所罗门的生意，不会买它的普通股，但是我看上了它的可转换优先股，觉得很合适。我就是这样投资的所罗门，但我觉得我做错了。这笔投资的结果最后还好，但这是一笔我不该做的投资。",[825,1914,1915],{},"我应该等待，等到一年后买入更多的","可口可乐，或者就按当时的价格买入",[825,1918,1069],{},"，虽然它当时的股价很高。这是我犯的错。",[822,1921,1922,1923,1925,1926,1929,1930],{},"至于长期资本管理公司那笔投资，先从套利说起吧。我们经过长期投资经验的积累，熟悉了套利这种操作。我做了45 年的套利，在我之前，",[825,1924,843],{},"做了30 年的套利。",[825,1927,1928],{},"可惜的是，做套利投资，我必须守在电话旁边。因为需要掌握市场的最新动向，我必须亲自在办公室指挥操作，现在我不想做这样的工作了","。除非是有特别大的套利机会，而且是我能看懂的，否则我不会在套利上花时间了。在我的投资生涯中，我可能做过300 多笔套利。",[825,1931,1932],{},"套利是个好生意，是非常好的生意。",[822,1934,1935,1936,1939,1941],{},"长期资本管理公司的仓位极其分散，但是在所有存在风险的资金中，前十大持仓的资金占了90%。我对这十大仓位中的品种有些了解，虽然没到了如指掌的程度，但是凭我的了解，我比较有把握，要是折扣够大的话，我愿意买，而且我们也有",[877,1937,197],{"href":1938},"\u002Fnaixin",[877,1940,120],{"href":964},"，挺过去。里面有些品种可能会亏钱，但是概率是站在我们一边的。我明白这里面的门道。我们还有一些仓位，所占比重不大，因为这些投资的规模大不起来。",[822,1943,1944,1945,1947],{},"这里面涉及收益率曲线的变化以及新老国债的差异，这些东西你接触证券市场久了就学会了，这些不是",[825,1946,940],{},"的主要利润来源，只占我们每年收益的0.5%左右。做投资时间长了，积累的知识多了，就能赚到这样的钱，算是锦上添花吧。我最早做的一笔套利交易中，一家公司宣布股东可以用股票换可可豆。那是1955 年，我买了这只股票，用股票换来了提取可可豆的仓库凭单，把可可豆卖出去赚了一笔钱。当时我正好遇到这个机会，以后再也没碰上这样的机会，40 多年了，我还没等到下一个可可豆交易机会，根本没有，要是有的话，我肯定会记得。长期资本管理公司搞的套利规模特别大。",[929,1949,1951],{"id":1950},"_13学生请讲讲您对分散投资的看法","13.学生：请讲讲您对分散投资的看法？",[822,1953,1954,1956,1957,1960],{},[825,1955,839],{},"：这个要看情况了。如果不是职业投资者，不追求通过管理资金实现超额收益率的目标，我觉得应该高度分散。",[825,1958,1959],{},"我认为98-99%的投资者应该高度分散，但不能频繁交易，他们的投资应该和成本极低的指数型基金差不多","。只要持有美国的一部分就可以了，这样投资，是相信持有美国的一部分会得到很好的回报，我对这样的做法毫无异议。对于普通投资者来说，这么投资是正路。",[822,1962,1963],{},"如果想积极参与投资活动，研究公司并主动做投资决策，那就不一样了。既然你走上研究公司这条路，既然你决定投入时间和精力把投资做好，我觉得分散投资是大错特错的。那天我在SunTrust 的时候，说到过这个问题。要是你真能看懂生意，你拥有的生意不应该超过六个。要是你能找到六个好生意，就已经足够分散了，用不着再分散了，而且你能赚很多钱。我敢保证，你不把钱投到你最看好的那个生意，而是再去做第七个生意，肯定会掉到沟里。靠第七个最好的主意发家的人很少，靠最好的主意发家的人很多。",[822,1965,1966,1967,1970],{},"所以，我说任何人，",[825,1968,1969],{},"在资金量一般的情况下，要是对自己要投资的生意确实了解，六个就很多了，换了是我的话，我可能就选三个我最看好的","。我本人不搞分散。我认识的投资比较成功的人，都不搞分散，沃尔特·施洛斯是个例外，沃尔特的投资非常分散，他什么东西都买一点，我说他是诺亚，什么东西都来两个。",[929,1972,1974],{"id":1973},"_14学生怎么才能区分可口可乐这样的公司和宝洁这样的公司","14.学生：怎么才能区分可口可乐这样的公司和宝洁这样的公司？",[822,1976,1977,1979,1980,1982,1983,1985,1988,1989,1069,1992,1995],{},[825,1978,839],{},"：宝洁的生意非常好，它拥有强大的分销",[877,1981,161],{"href":986},"和大量知名",[877,1984,141],{"href":990},[825,1986,1987],{},"。要是你问我，我要是把我的所有资金都投入到一家公司，20 年不动，我会选宝洁还是","可口可乐，其实宝洁的产品线更多元化，但是比较起来，我认",[825,1990,1991],{},"为",[825,1993,1994],{},"确定性比宝洁的确定性高","。要是我在二十年里只能投资宝洁一家公司，我可以接受。",[822,1997,1998,1999,1069,2002,1069,2005],{},"宝洁可以入选我最看好的公司中的前5%。宝洁不会被竞争对手打垮，",[825,2000,2001],{},"但是从将来20-30 年看，在宝洁和",[825,2003,2004],{},"之间，我更看好",[825,2006,2007],{},"的销量增长潜力和定价权。",[822,2009,2010,2011,2013,2014,2016,2017,2019,2020,2022,2023,2025,2026,2028,2029,2031,2032,2034,2035,2037,2038,2040],{},"现在",[825,2012,1069],{},"提价不太容易，但是你想想，每天卖出10 亿多瓶，一瓶多赚1 美分，一天就多赚1000 万美元。我们拥有",[825,2015,1069],{},"8%的股份，其中80 万美元的利润是",[825,2018,940],{},"的。",[825,2021,1069],{},"可以提价一美分，这个不难，我觉得",[825,2024,1069],{},"涨一分钱也不贵。现在",[825,2027,1069],{},"在大多数市场中提价还没到时候。但是，假以时日，",[825,2030,1069],{},"每卖出一瓶能比现在赚得更多。我敢肯定，20 年以后，",[825,2033,1069],{},"每卖出一瓶能赚得更多，而且",[825,2036,1069],{},"的销量也会比现在增加很多。我不知道",[825,2039,1069],{},"涨价能涨多少，销量能增加多少，但是我知道它的售价和销量都会往上走。",[822,2042,2043,2044,2046],{},"宝洁的主要产品，在市场占有率、销量增长潜力方面都不如",[825,2045,1069],{},"，但是宝洁的生意也是好生意。如果我在20 年里只能把我家的所有资产都投入到宝洁这一只股票中，我可以接受。我可能更看好一些别的公司，但是这样的好公司太少了。",[929,2048,2050],{"id":2049},"_15学生您愿意买入麦当劳持有20-年吗","15.学生：您愿意买入麦当劳，持有20 年吗？",[822,2052,2053,2055,2056,2066,2067,918],{},[825,2054,839],{},"：麦当劳有许多有利因素，特别是在国外市场。麦当劳在国外的很多地方比在美国更好。这",[825,2057,2058,2059,2065],{},"个生意其实是越来越难做的。",[825,2060,2061,2062,1069],{},"麦当劳向小孩子赠送玩具，小孩子喜欢去麦当劳，大人们一般不愿意天天都吃麦当劳。人们今天能喝五罐可乐，明天还能喝五罐。",[825,2063,2064],{},"麦当劳的快餐生意不如","的饮料生意好做","。快餐行业在全球规模巨大，要是一定要从里面选一家公司的话，选麦当劳没错。麦当劳的竞争优势是最强的。大人们不是特别喜欢吃麦当劳，但是孩子们很爱吃，大人们也还可以，但是不是特别喜欢。",[825,2068,2069],{},"麦当劳这几年的促销活动越来越多，它越来越依赖促销，而不是靠产品本身卖得好。我还是更喜欢产品本身卖得好的生意",[822,2071,2072],{},"我更喜欢吉列，人们买锋速3 是因为他们喜欢锋速3 这个产品本身，不是为了得到什么赠品才买的。我感觉吉列的锋速3 这个产品，从根本上来说更强大。应该是这样。我们持有不少吉列的股份，每天晚上，想想一两亿男人的胡子都在长，你睡觉的时候，男人们的胡子一直在长，你就能睡得很踏实。再想想，女人们都有两条腿，这更好了。这个方法比数绵羊管用多了。要找就找这样的生意。",[822,2074,2075,2078,2079,2082,2083,2085,2086,2088],{},[825,2076,2077],{},"麦当劳就不一样了，总要想着下个月搞什么促销活动对付汉堡王","，要担心汉堡王签下了迪斯尼，自己没签下来，怎么办？虽然麦当劳这样的生意也能做得很好，",[825,2080,2081],{},"但我喜欢那些不靠促销打折也能卖得好的产品","。麦当劳是好生意，但是不如",[825,2084,1069],{},"。比",[825,2087,1069],{},"还好的生意本来也没几个。麦当劳的生意还是很好的。从快餐行业选一家公司，我会选DQ 冰淇淋。不久之前，我们收购了DQ 冰淇淋，所以我厚着脸皮在这说DQ 的好话。",[929,2090,2092],{"id":2091},"_16学生您如何看公用事业行业","16.学生：您如何看公用事业行业？",[822,2094,2095,2097,2098],{},[825,2096,839],{},"：我花了很长时间思考这个行业，因为这个行业可以投入大量资金。我还考虑过整体收购公用事业公司。奥马哈有个人就经营着一家名叫CalEnergy(中美能源)的公用事业公司。",[825,2099,2100],{},"这个行业里，有一点我还没太搞明白，我不知道放松管制对行业会产生什么影响。我能预见到的是，失去了垄断保护，许多高成本生产商陷入困境，大量价值会被毁灭。",[822,2102,2103,2104],{},"我确定不了谁会成为受益者，能得到多少好处。显然，能源生产成本低的，水力发电成本为2 美分\u002F度电的公司，拥有巨大优势。成本虽然低，但是能赚到多少钱？除了自己周围的区域，能覆盖的市场有多大？这些东西我还不清楚，还不确定这个行业十年后会怎样。但是我会接着想，一旦想明白了，需要行动，我就行动。我觉得我能看懂公用事业公司，用户需求是确定的，现在公共事业公司很便宜，这些我都知道。",[825,2105,2106],{},"我就是不知道十年后谁会赚钱，所以我还没投资。",[929,2108,2110],{"id":2109},"_17学生为什么今年大盘股跑赢了小盘股","17.学生：为什么今年大盘股跑赢了小盘股？",[822,2112,2113,2115,2116],{},[825,2114,839],{},"：我们不管一家公司是大盘、小盘、中盘、还是超小盘，我们不管这些东西。我们只考虑这么几点：",[825,2117,2118],{},"这家公司的生意我们能不能看懂？这家公司的管理层我们喜不喜欢？这家公司的价格是否便宜？",[822,2120,2121,2122,2124],{},"从管理",[825,2123,940],{},"的角度出发，我们要将GenRe 大概750 亿到800 亿美元的保费用于投资，这么大的资金量，我只能买大公司，所以我只想投资五个生意。如果我投资的是10 万美元，我才不管什么大盘、小盘呢，我就找我能看懂的公司。",[822,2126,2127,2128,2134,2135,2137],{},"总的来说，过去十年里，大盘股所代表的公司业绩特别好，远远超出了人们的预期。这十年里，美国公司的股本回报率高达20%左右，十年前哪有人想到大公司的股本回报率能有这么高，这还是大公司的平均水平。",[825,2129,2130,2131,1325],{},"因为利率较低，而且大公司的资本回报率较高，所以大公司的估值得到了巨大提升。",[825,2132,2133],{},"把美国所有公司当成一只债券，以前它的收益率是13%，现在增加到了20%，自然更值钱了。这几年大公司的收益率很高，能不能一直保持下去就不定了，我对此持怀疑态度。因为我们的资金量太大，我投资的时候受规模限制，否则的话，我根本不考虑公司的大小。我们买","的时候，是花2500 万美元买的。现在要是能找到一个",[825,2136,1325],{},"这样的公司，别看我们规模这么大，我还是愿意买。重要的是确定性。",[929,2139,2141],{"id":2140},"_18学生请讲讲您对房地产证券化的看法","18.学生：请讲讲您对房地产证券化的看法？",[822,2143,2144,2146],{},[825,2145,839],{},"：房地产债务证券化工具大量涌现，现在已经成为资本市场的一大顽症。住宅抵押贷款还可以，但商业地产抵押贷款证券已陷入停滞。我觉得你想问的应该是资产证券化的问题。以公司的形式持有房地产非常不利。如果是个人持有，只需交一次税，但通过公司持有，还要交纳公司所得税，以公司形式持有要交两遍税。何必这样呢？这样做的话，要从收益里拿出一大笔钱交税。",[822,2148,2149],{},"房地产投资信托基金(REITs)是一个途径，用不着交两次税，但是这些基金的运作需要费用。假设投资房地产获得的收益率是8%左右，买REITs 的话，算上股票期权等各项成本，从收益率里扣掉1%到1.5%，这样投资房地产的收益率也没多高了。或许钱少的人，比如只有1000 美元或者5000 美元，想投资房地产的话，可以买REIT，但是如果你有100 万美元或1000 万美元，最好是自己直接买房产投资，用不着找中间商，把利润分给他们一份。总的来说，我们在房地产领域没发现特别看好的投资机会。",[822,2151,2152,2153],{},"有的时候人们看不懂一些大型房地产公司，以德克萨斯太平洋房地产信托为例，它有100 多年的历史，在德州有几百万英亩的土地。它每年将这些土地的1%卖出去，拿1%卖地的收入计算自己的价值，说自己被市场严重低估了。要是你真拥有这么多土地，你就明白了，根本不是那么回事。土地没那么容易流通。你想从土地里拿出50%或20%卖出去，这办不到。",[825,2154,2155],{},"土地连流动性不足的股票都不如。很多人根本不知道拥有一家房地产公司，要运作大片的土地有多难，所以他们给很多房地产公司的估值很离谱。在今年的市场上，REITs 表现很差，将来人们不看好它们的时候，它们的价格甚至会远远低于它们持有的土地，这太有可能了。到那时候，REITs 可能值得考虑。",[822,2157,2158],{},"问题是管理层愿不愿意清算，他们可能会和投资者对着干，舍不得他们的收入和福利，和股东产生利益冲突。有的REITs 的管理层口口声声说它们的资产多优秀，被低估的多严重，背地里却在卖自家的股票，你说怪不怪？这不是自相矛盾吗？他们说自己的股票28 美元很便宜，然后却在28 美元大量卖出，明显的言行不一致。",[822,2160,2161],{},"不过，我们在关注房地产行业。查理和我都能看懂房地产生意，什么时候出现大的投资机会，我们愿意投资。如果长期资本管理公司的情形出现在了房地产领域，我们愿意出手，问题是别人也会抢着出手，所以价格很难让我们动心。",[929,2163,2165],{"id":2164},"_19学生您是否更喜欢下跌的市场","19.学生：您是否更喜欢下跌的市场？",[822,2167,2168,2170],{},[825,2169,839],{},"：我不知道市场会怎么走。我更愿意看到市场下跌，这是我的一厢情愿，市场该怎么走还怎么走。市场不懂我的感受。要投资股票，这是你必须首先学会的一个道理。你买了100 股通用汽车，一下子，你就对通用汽车有感情了。它跌了，你很生气，你会说：\"要是涨到我的成本价，我就又能高兴起来了。\"它涨了，你可能说：\"我多聪明啊，我真是太爱通用汽车了。\"这些情绪都来了。",[822,2172,2173],{},[825,2174,2175],{},"股票哪知道你买没买它，它就待在那，不管你买没买，也不管你多少钱买的。不管我对市场产生什么感情，它都不理我，没有比市场更铁石心肠的了。在今后十年里，在座的各位都是要净买入股票的人，而不是要净卖出股票的人，各位都应该希望股价更低。",[822,2177,2178,2179,2181,2182,2184,2185,2187],{},"如果今后十年里，你是吃汉堡的，不是养牛的，你肯定希望汉堡的价格下降。如果你常喝",[825,2180,1069],{},"，但是没有",[825,2183,1069],{},"的股票，你会希望可乐的价格下降，希望周末去超市的时候，",[825,2186,1069],{},"能有促销。去超市买可乐的时候，你希望可乐便宜，不希望可乐贵。",[822,2189,2190,2191,2193,2194,2197],{},"纽约股票交易所就是一个可以买到各种公司的大超市。你要买股票，你希望出现什么情况？你希望这些股票一直跌，这样你才能买的更合适。等到二三十年之后，当你要把积累的钱拿出来花的时候，或者你的子女帮你花的时候，那时候你才希望股价高。",[825,2192,843],{},"在《聪明投资者》的第8 章中讲到了对待股市波动的态度，还有讲",[877,2195,101],{"href":2196},"\u002Fanquanbianji","的第20章，我认为在所有关于投资的著述中，没有比这两章更重要的了。",[822,2199,2200,2201,2203],{},"我是19 岁的时候读到第8 章的，我一下子豁然开朗，明白了我前面讲的那些东西。但是我是看了这本书才明白的，不是自己想明白的，是",[825,2202,843],{},"在书里讲的。要不是看了这本书，可能再过100 年，我还是觉得股价上涨好。我们希望股价下跌，但是我不知道市场会怎么走，过去从来不知道，将来也不会知道，我根本也不往这上面想。股市大跌的时候，我更仔细地查看有什么值得买的，我知道大跌的时候更容易买到好货，更容易把钱用好。",[929,2205,2207],{"id":2206},"_20学生如果能重新活一次为了让生活更幸福您会怎么做","20.学生：如果能重新活一次，为了让生活更幸福，您会怎么做？",[822,2209,2210,2212],{},[825,2211,839],{},"：希望我的回答，大家听了不会觉得不舒服。要是我重新活一次的话，我只想做一件事，选能活到120 岁的基因。我其实是非常幸运的。我经常举一个例子，觉得可能会对各位有启发，所以花两分钟时间讲讲。",[822,2214,2215],{},"假设现在是你出生前24 小时，一个神仙出现了，他说：\"孩子，我看你前途无量，我现在手里有个难题，我得设计你出生后生活的世界，我觉得太难了，你来设计吧。你有24 小时的时间，社会规则、经济规则、政府规则，这些都给你设计，你还有你的子孙后代都在这些规则的约束下生活。\"你问了：\"我什么都能设计？\"神仙说：\"对，什么都能设计。\"你说：\"没什么附加条件？\"神仙说：\"有一个附加条件。你不知道自己出生后是黑人还是白人，是富有还是贫穷，是男人还是女人，是身体健壮还是体弱多病，是聪明过人还是头脑迟钝。你知道的就一点，你要从一个装着58 亿个球的桶里选一个球。\"我把这个叫卵巢彩票。你要从这58 亿个球里选一个，这是你一生之中最重大的决定，它会决定你是出生在美国还是阿富汗，智商是130 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