[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":658},["ShallowReactive",2],{"buffett-1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":646,"description":647,"extension":648,"meta":649,"navigation":650,"order":651,"path":652,"seo":653,"seoDescription":647,"seoTitle":654,"slug":655,"stem":656,"__hash__":657},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin.md","1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":642},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,42,46,49,52,55,58,61,64,67,70,73,76,79,82,86,91,260,264,269,344,347,350,354,359,475,478,481,486],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1962年中-巴菲特致合伙人信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"巴菲特合伙人有限公司",[14,18,19],{},"810 基威特广场",[14,21,22],{},"内布拉斯加州奥马哈 31 号",[14,24,25],{},"1962年7月6日",[10,27,28],{"id":28},"回顾与提醒",[14,30,31],{},"在1962年1月24日那封报告1961年业绩的信里，我写了一节题为\"一个预测\"的内容。我不想对读者施以残忍而罕见的折磨，但一字不差地把那段话搬过来，还是很有必要的：",[33,34,35],"blockquote",{},[14,36,37,41],{},[38,39,40],"strong",{},"一个预测","\n老读者（我这是王婆卖瓜，自卖自夸了）看到我开口预测，肯定觉得我反常。预测这件事，我一向敬而远之，现在也是——通常意义上如此。\n我肯定不会预测明后两年的宏观经济或股市走向，因为我完全不知道。\n不过有一点我相当确定：今后十年里，有几年大盘会涨20%到25%，有几年会跌差不多的幅度，其余大多数年份则夹在中间。哪年涨、哪年跌，我毫无头绪，长期投资者也不必太在意。\n放眼足够长的时间，我认为道指含股息和市值增长的年复合收益率大概在5%到7%之间。这几年大市涨得不少，但要是期望大市长期能超过这个水平，恐怕要失望了。\n我们的工作是年复一年积累相对道指的超额收益，不必太纠结某一年的绝对结果是正还是负。一年里，若我们跌15%而道指跌25%，在我看来，比我们和道指都涨20%的年份要好得多。我和合伙人一再强调这一点，也亲眼看着他们点头，有人深信不疑，有人半信半疑。\n这一点对我非常重要：我希望你不仅在脑子里认同这个逻辑，更要打心底里接受它。\n正如在介绍我们投资方法时所说的，我们相对道指最出色的年份，很可能出现在下跌或横盘的市场里。因此，我们取得的超额优势会时多时少，差异相当大。有些年份我们肯定会落后道指，但如果从长期来看，我们能平均每年跑赢道指10个百分点，我就认为这是令人满意的结果。\n具体而言：如果某年市场下跌35%或40%（今后十年里某一年出现这种情况的概率相当大，但谁也不知道是哪年），我们应该只跌15%或20%；如果道指基本持平，我们应该能涨约10个百分点；如果道指涨超20%，我们很难跟上。长期保持这样的表现，假设道指年复合收益率在5%到7%，我们的目标是每年15%到17%。\n这些预期听起来或许有些大胆，等到1965年或1970年回头来看，很可能显得更加大胆——也可能完全证明是错的。但我认为合伙人有权知道我的真实想法，尽管这一行的特点就是让预期很容易出错。单独某一年，波动可能相当剧烈。1961年正是如此，幸运的是，波动的方向是向上的。可不能每次都这么走运！",[10,43,45],{"id":44},"_1962年上半年","1962年上半年",[14,47,48],{},"从1961年末到1962年6月30日，道指从731.14点跌至561.28点，期间股息约为11美元，持有道指的整体收益率为亏损21.7%。附录A列出了合伙基金前身成立以来道指的逐年收益，喜欢钻研数字的朋友可以翻一翻。",[14,50,51],{},"如前所述，道指下跌正是我们大显身手的时机，可以借此拉开与道指的差距，多赢几个百分点。等到市场上涨时只要表现中规中矩，长期来看就能交出相当令人满意的成绩单。我们的目标是道指每跌1%，我们只跌0.5%。能做到这一点，就说明与几乎所有其他股票投资方式相比，我们是真正保守的。",[14,53,54],{},"附录B列出了合伙基金前几年的综合业绩。自成立以来，1962年上半年是我们最出色的阶段之一——道指整体跌去21.7%，而我们分成之前的收益率仅为负7.5%，领先幅度达14.2个百分点。如果下半年大市继续下跌，这一优势有望进一步扩大；如果市场好转，则可能缩小。我一再提醒大家：六个月甚至一年的业绩，别看得太重。用短期表现来评判，只会放大偶然因素的影响。这个上半年固然机缘巧合，成绩格外出色，但相对表现欠佳的阶段迟早会来，不可避免。此外，我们对登普斯特风车制造公司 (Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company) 控股权益的估值，在计算业绩时没有做任何调整，但最近几个月已经有了进展，将来很可能变现出更高的价值。",[10,56,57],{"id":57},"基金公司上半年的表现",[14,59,60],{},"我们在历年信中反复强调，道指并不是一个容易打败的对手。只要资金是投向股票，无论以什么形式——基金公司、投资顾问、银行信托，或者自己操刀——我们认为绝大多数人的成绩也就是与道指大致相当。偏离道指的，跑输的概率远大于跑赢的。",[14,62,63],{},"为了说明这一点，我们一直拿最大的两只开放式股票型共同基金和最大的两只封闭式股票型基金，与道指和合伙人收益率做持续对比。附录C列出了这五年的业绩，你会发现它们与道指的数字贴得出奇地近。这四家公司管理的资产合计约35亿美元。",[14,65,66],{},"为了让这封信尽快寄到大家手里，两家封闭式基金的数据还未出炉便已发出。两只开放式基金的成绩都不及道指——Massachusetts Investors Trust 整体亏损23%，Investors Stock Fund 亏损25.4%。这并不稀奇。1962年6月13日，《华尔街日报》在头版刊出一篇题为\"基金对决市场\"(Funds vs. Market) 的文章。文章研究了17只大型股票基金，从道指触及734点的高峰到撰文之日，无一例外，全部跑输道指，只是输多输少的差别。",[14,68,69],{},"上半年跌得最惨的，是所谓的\"成长\"基金——几乎没有例外，它们的跌幅都远超道指。前几年业绩最靓丽的三只\"成长\"（这里打引号，如今更显必要）基金——Fidelity Capital Fund、Putnam Growth Fund、Wellington Equity Fund——上半年平均下跌32.3%。说句公道话，这几只基金1959至1961年表现出众，截至目前的累计成绩依然优于平均水平，将来或许也会如此。但讽刺的是，正因为前几年的好成绩，大批新投资者蜂拥而入，赶上了今年的滑铁卢——能享受到当年辉煌业绩的人寥寥无几，却有更多的人分担了今年的亏损。这恰恰印证了我的观点：评判投资业绩，必须经过一个完整的牛熊周期才算数。牛市和熊市都是常态，这个道理，比起六个月前，大家现在或许理解得更深了。",[14,71,72],{},"我之所以列出基金公司的业绩，不是因为我们的投资方式与它们相似，也不是因为我们买的股票和它们一样，而是因为它们代表了职业基金经理人管理约200亿美元证券的整体打击率 (batting average)——这些人薪酬不菲。我认为，他们的表现也能代表管理规模更大资产的机构的水平。如果合伙人没有选择我们，很多人大概会把钱交给类似的投资管理方式来打理。",[10,74,75],{"id":75},"资产价值",[14,77,78],{},"上述业绩均在普通合伙人计提分成及每月向合伙人支付利息之前计算。当然，若全年按市值计算的整体收益率未达到6%（亏损部分将结转下年抵减），普通合伙人没有任何分成。因此，前六个月内，未提现的合伙人市值权益减少了7.5%，按年利率6%提现的合伙人市值权益减少了10.5%。如果全年收益率低于6%（除非道指大幅反弹，否则这几乎是板上钉钉的事），1962年12月31日，按月领取利息的合伙人市值权益将会减少。以新的市值权益为基数，明年6%的年利率对应的月支付额也会相应缩减。举个例子：如果我们今年整体亏损7%，某位每月领取利息的合伙人，1962年1月1日市值权益为100,000美元，那么1962年12月31日，他的权益将变为87,000美元——其中亏损7%减少7,000美元，再加上每月500美元、全年合计6,000美元的利息支出。这样一来，1963年1月1日新的市值权益为87,000美元，明年每月的利息就变成435美元。",[14,80,81],{},"以上计算完全不适用于1962年收到的预先存入资金——这部分资金只按6%计息，不参与任何盈亏。",[10,83,85],{"id":84},"附录-a","附录 A",[14,87,88],{},[38,89,90],{},"道琼斯工业指数",[92,93,94,119],"table",{},[95,96,97],"thead",{},[98,99,100,104,107,110,113,116],"tr",{},[101,102,103],"th",{},"年份",[101,105,106],{},"年末收盘价",[101,108,109],{},"年度涨跌额",[101,111,112],{},"股息",[101,114,115],{},"合计收益额",[101,117,118],{},"整体收益率",[120,121,122,140,160,180,200,220,240],"tbody",{},[98,123,124,128,131,134,136,138],{},[125,126,127],"td",{},"1956",[125,129,130],{},"499.47",[125,132,133],{},"—",[125,135,133],{},[125,137,133],{},[125,139,133],{},[98,141,142,145,148,151,154,157],{},[125,143,144],{},"1957",[125,146,147],{},"435.69",[125,149,150],{},"-63.78",[125,152,153],{},"21.61",[125,155,156],{},"-42.17",[125,158,159],{},"-8.4%",[98,161,162,165,168,171,174,177],{},[125,163,164],{},"1958",[125,166,167],{},"583.65",[125,169,170],{},"147.96",[125,172,173],{},"20.00",[125,175,176],{},"167.96",[125,178,179],{},"38.5%",[98,181,182,185,188,191,194,197],{},[125,183,184],{},"1959",[125,186,187],{},"679.36",[125,189,190],{},"95.71",[125,192,193],{},"20.74",[125,195,196],{},"116.45",[125,198,199],{},"20.0%",[98,201,202,205,208,211,214,217],{},[125,203,204],{},"1960",[125,206,207],{},"615.89",[125,209,210],{},"-63.47",[125,212,213],{},"21.36",[125,215,216],{},"-42.11",[125,218,219],{},"-6.2%",[98,221,222,225,228,231,234,237],{},[125,223,224],{},"1961",[125,226,227],{},"731.14",[125,229,230],{},"115.25",[125,232,233],{},"22.61",[125,235,236],{},"137.86",[125,238,239],{},"22.4%",[98,241,242,245,248,251,254,257],{},[125,243,244],{},"1962年6月30日",[125,246,247],{},"561.28",[125,249,250],{},"-169.86",[125,252,253],{},"11.00（估算）",[125,255,256],{},"-158.86",[125,258,259],{},"-21.7%",[10,261,263],{"id":262},"附录-b","附录 B",[14,265,266],{},[38,267,268],{},"合伙基金业绩",[92,270,271,283],{},[95,272,273],{},[98,274,275,277,280],{},[101,276,103],{},[101,278,279],{},"合伙基金收益率（1）",[101,281,282],{},"有限合伙人收益率（2）",[120,284,285,295,305,315,325,335],{},[98,286,287,289,292],{},[125,288,144],{},[125,290,291],{},"10.4%",[125,293,294],{},"9.3%",[98,296,297,299,302],{},[125,298,164],{},[125,300,301],{},"40.9%",[125,303,304],{},"32.2%",[98,306,307,309,312],{},[125,308,184],{},[125,310,311],{},"25.9%",[125,313,314],{},"20.9%",[98,316,317,319,322],{},[125,318,204],{},[125,320,321],{},"22.8%",[125,323,324],{},"18.6%",[98,326,327,329,332],{},[125,328,224],{},[125,330,331],{},"45.9%",[125,333,334],{},"35.9%",[98,336,337,339,342],{},[125,338,45],{},[125,340,341],{},"-7.5%",[125,343,341],{},[14,345,346],{},"（1）1957-61年数据为全年运营的所有前身有限合伙人账户的综合收益率，已扣除全部费用，未扣除向有限合伙人及普通合伙人的分配或分成。",[14,348,349],{},"（2）1957-61年数据在前一列合伙基金收益率基础上计算，按当前合伙协议扣除普通合伙人分成。",[10,351,353],{"id":352},"附录-c","附录 C",[14,355,356],{},[38,357,358],{},"年度业绩",[92,360,361,379],{},[95,362,363],{},[98,364,365,367,370,373,376],{},[101,366,103],{},[101,368,369],{},"Mass. Inv. Trust（1）",[101,371,372],{},"Investors Stock（1）",[101,374,375],{},"Lehman（2）",[101,377,378],{},"Tri-Cont.（2）",[120,380,381,396,412,428,444,460],{},[98,382,383,385,388,391,393],{},[125,384,144],{},[125,386,387],{},"-11.4%",[125,389,390],{},"-12.4%",[125,392,387],{},[125,394,395],{},"-2.4%",[98,397,398,400,403,406,409],{},[125,399,164],{},[125,401,402],{},"42.7%",[125,404,405],{},"47.5%",[125,407,408],{},"40.8%",[125,410,411],{},"33.2%",[98,413,414,416,419,422,425],{},[125,415,184],{},[125,417,418],{},"9.0%",[125,420,421],{},"10.3%",[125,423,424],{},"8.1%",[125,426,427],{},"8.4%",[98,429,430,432,435,438,441],{},[125,431,204],{},[125,433,434],{},"-1.0%",[125,436,437],{},"-0.6%",[125,439,440],{},"2.5%",[125,442,443],{},"2.8%",[98,445,446,448,451,454,457],{},[125,447,224],{},[125,449,450],{},"25.6%",[125,452,453],{},"24.9%",[125,455,456],{},"23.6%",[125,458,459],{},"22.5%",[98,461,462,464,467,470,473],{},[125,463,45],{},[125,465,466],{},"-23.0%",[125,468,469],{},"-25.4%",[125,471,472],{},"不适用",[125,474,472],{},[14,476,477],{},"（1）按当年资产价值变动加上持有人股息分配计算。",[14,479,480],{},"（2）数据来源：Moody's Bank & Finance Manual – 1962。",[14,482,483],{},[38,484,485],{},"累计收益率",[92,487,488,512],{},[95,489,490],{},[98,491,492,494,497,500,503,506,509],{},[101,493,103],{},[101,495,496],{},"Mass. Inv. Trust",[101,498,499],{},"Investors Stock",[101,501,502],{},"Lehman",[101,504,505],{},"Tri-Cont.",[101,507,508],{},"道指",[101,510,511],{},"有限合伙人",[120,513,514,530,553,575,598,621],{},[98,515,516,518,520,522,524,526,528],{},[125,517,144],{},[125,519,387],{},[125,521,390],{},[125,523,387],{},[125,525,395],{},[125,527,159],{},[125,529,294],{},[98,531,532,535,538,541,544,547,550],{},[125,533,534],{},"1957-58",[125,536,537],{},"26.4%",[125,539,540],{},"29.2%",[125,542,543],{},"24.7%",[125,545,546],{},"30.0%",[125,548,549],{},"26.9%",[125,551,552],{},"44.5%",[98,554,555,558,561,564,567,569,572],{},[125,556,557],{},"1957-59",[125,559,560],{},"37.8%",[125,562,563],{},"42.5%",[125,565,566],{},"34.8%",[125,568,301],{},[125,570,571],{},"52.3%",[125,573,574],{},"74.7%",[98,576,577,580,583,586,589,592,595],{},[125,578,579],{},"1957-60",[125,581,582],{},"36.4%",[125,584,585],{},"41.6%",[125,587,588],{},"38.2%",[125,590,591],{},"44.8%",[125,593,594],{},"42.9%",[125,596,597],{},"107.2%",[98,599,600,603,606,609,612,615,618],{},[125,601,602],{},"1957-61",[125,604,605],{},"71.4%",[125,607,608],{},"76.9%",[125,610,611],{},"70.8%",[125,613,614],{},"77.4%",[125,616,617],{},"74.9%",[125,619,620],{},"181.6%",[98,622,623,626,629,632,634,636,639],{},[125,624,625],{},"1957至1962年6月30日",[125,627,628],{},"31.9%",[125,630,631],{},"32.0%",[125,633,472],{},[125,635,472],{},[125,637,638],{},"37.0%",[125,640,641],{},"160.5%",{"title":643,"searchDepth":644,"depth":644,"links":645},"",2,[],"致股东信","1962年中巴菲特致合伙人信，分享上半年投资业绩及雪茄屁股投资机会","md",{},true,11,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"description":647},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信｜巴菲特","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","mZabKLiNzxalyaAE-OLb9TAFpHzf9vVTdd23IdnLCEI",1778061723895]