[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":590},["ShallowReactive",2],{"buffett-1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":578,"description":579,"extension":580,"meta":581,"navigation":582,"order":583,"path":584,"seo":585,"seoDescription":579,"seoTitle":586,"slug":587,"stem":588,"__hash__":589},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin.md","1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":574},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,234,240,243,246,249,252,255,539,544,547,550,553,556,559,562,565,568,571],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1967年中-巴菲特致合伙人信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"1967 年 7 月 12 日",[10,18,19],{"id":19},"上半年业绩",[14,21,22],{},"和往年一样，因为我们一家要去加州度假，这封信也是六月末写的。为了与往年相称（对于损益表，我总是克服我对美感的追求，不讲对称），有些地方我先保留了空白，等数字补上后，相信我的结论也不会有问题。",[14,24,25],{},"1967 年，我们一开局就很受伤，一月份表现惨淡，道指上涨 8.5%，合伙基金上涨 3.3%。尽管开局不利，上半年结束之时，我们还是取得了 21% 的收益率，领先道指 9.6 个百分点。今年上半年和去年一样，打败道指比较容易（很多人觉得战胜道指很容易，不可能每年都如此），很多基金经理都跑赢了道指。按照惯例，下表汇总了我们上半年的业绩：",[27,28,29,48],"table",{},[30,31,32],"thead",{},[33,34,35,39,42,45],"tr",{},[36,37,38],"th",{},"年份",[36,40,41],{},"道指整体收益率 (1)",[36,43,44],{},"合伙基金收益率 (2)",[36,46,47],{},"有限合伙人收益率 (3)",[49,50,51,66,80,94,108,122,136,150,164,178,192,206,220],"tbody",{},[33,52,53,57,60,63],{},[54,55,56],"td",{},"1957",[54,58,59],{},"-8.4%",[54,61,62],{},"10.4%",[54,64,65],{},"9.3%",[33,67,68,71,74,77],{},[54,69,70],{},"1958",[54,72,73],{},"38.5%",[54,75,76],{},"40.9%",[54,78,79],{},"32.2%",[33,81,82,85,88,91],{},[54,83,84],{},"1959",[54,86,87],{},"20.0%",[54,89,90],{},"25.9%",[54,92,93],{},"20.9%",[33,95,96,99,102,105],{},[54,97,98],{},"1960",[54,100,101],{},"-6.2%",[54,103,104],{},"22.8%",[54,106,107],{},"18.6%",[33,109,110,113,116,119],{},[54,111,112],{},"1961",[54,114,115],{},"22.4%",[54,117,118],{},"45.9%",[54,120,121],{},"35.9%",[33,123,124,127,130,133],{},[54,125,126],{},"1962",[54,128,129],{},"-7.6%",[54,131,132],{},"13.9%",[54,134,135],{},"11.9%",[33,137,138,141,144,147],{},[54,139,140],{},"1963",[54,142,143],{},"20.6%",[54,145,146],{},"38.7%",[54,148,149],{},"30.5%",[33,151,152,155,158,161],{},[54,153,154],{},"1964",[54,156,157],{},"18.7%",[54,159,160],{},"27.8%",[54,162,163],{},"22.3%",[33,165,166,169,172,175],{},[54,167,168],{},"1965",[54,170,171],{},"14.2%",[54,173,174],{},"47.2%",[54,176,177],{},"36.9%",[33,179,180,183,186,189],{},[54,181,182],{},"1966",[54,184,185],{},"-15.6%",[54,187,188],{},"20.4%",[54,190,191],{},"16.8%",[33,193,194,197,200,203],{},[54,195,196],{},"1967 年上半年",[54,198,199],{},"11.4%",[54,201,202],{},"21.0%",[54,204,205],{},"17.3%",[33,207,208,211,214,217],{},[54,209,210],{},"累计收益率",[54,212,213],{},"148.3%",[54,215,216],{},"1419.8%",[54,218,219],{},"843.3%",[33,221,222,225,228,231],{},[54,223,224],{},"年化复合收益率",[54,226,227],{},"9.1%",[54,229,230],{},"29.6%",[54,232,233],{},"23.8%",[235,236,237],"blockquote",{},[14,238,239],{},"(1) 根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。\n(2) 1957-61 年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。\n(3) 1957-61 年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议，扣除了普通合伙人分成。",[14,241,242],{},"在合伙基金上半年业绩统计中，控股公司的估值保持不变，我们的收益完全来自有价证券投资。今年年初，我们投资有价证券的部分占净资产的 63.3%。",[14,244,245],{},"在 12 月份承诺书最终生效之前，我们会考虑所有相关情况（包括经营、市场和信用情况），决定是否对多元零售公司 (Diversified Retailing Company, DRC) 和伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司重新估值。",[14,247,248],{},"上半年，多元零售公司和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司都进行了大型收购。多元零售公司（我们持有 80% 股份）及其两个子公司（霍赫希尔德科恩公司 (Hochschild Kohn) 和联合棉布商店 (Associated Cotton Shops)）都非常令人满意。纺织行业的伯克希尔哈撒韦却步履维艰。虽然现在我没看到它的内在价值有任何减损，但是它的纺织业务是不可能取得像样的资产回报率了。如果道指继续上涨，投资组合中的伯克希尔纺织业务会严重拖累我们的相对表现（今年上半年就是如此）。在市场强劲上涨时，控股公司的相对表现较弱是意料之中的，但是如果控股公司本身的业务也没起色，那就麻烦了。我一个朋友有句话说得好：“想要的东西没得到，就得到了经验。”(Experience is what you find when you're looking for something else.)",[10,250,251],{"id":251},"基金公司",[14,253,254],{},"与往常一样，下面是合伙基金与股票投资占 95-100% 的最大的两只开放式股票型基金（共同基金）和最大的两只封闭式基金的对比情况。",[27,256,257,281],{},[30,258,259],{},[33,260,261,263,266,269,272,275,278],{},[36,262,38],{},[36,264,265],{},"Mass. Inv. Trust (1)",[36,267,268],{},"Investors Stock (1)",[36,270,271],{},"Lehman (2)",[36,273,274],{},"Tri-Cont. (2)",[36,276,277],{},"道指",[36,279,280],{},"有限合伙人",[49,282,283,302,322,342,362,382,402,421,441,461,480,500,520],{},[33,284,285,287,290,293,295,298,300],{},[54,286,56],{},[54,288,289],{},"-11.4%",[54,291,292],{},"-12.4%",[54,294,289],{},[54,296,297],{},"-2.4%",[54,299,59],{},[54,301,65],{},[33,303,304,306,309,312,315,318,320],{},[54,305,70],{},[54,307,308],{},"42.7%",[54,310,311],{},"47.5%",[54,313,314],{},"40.8%",[54,316,317],{},"33.2%",[54,319,73],{},[54,321,79],{},[33,323,324,326,329,332,335,338,340],{},[54,325,84],{},[54,327,328],{},"9.0%",[54,330,331],{},"10.3%",[54,333,334],{},"8.1%",[54,336,337],{},"8.4%",[54,339,87],{},[54,341,93],{},[33,343,344,346,349,352,355,358,360],{},[54,345,98],{},[54,347,348],{},"-1.0%",[54,350,351],{},"-0.6%",[54,353,354],{},"2.5%",[54,356,357],{},"2.8%",[54,359,101],{},[54,361,107],{},[33,363,364,366,369,372,375,378,380],{},[54,365,112],{},[54,367,368],{},"25.6%",[54,370,371],{},"24.9%",[54,373,374],{},"23.6%",[54,376,377],{},"22.5%",[54,379,115],{},[54,381,121],{},[33,383,384,386,389,392,395,398,400],{},[54,385,126],{},[54,387,388],{},"-9.8%",[54,390,391],{},"-13.4%",[54,393,394],{},"-14.4%",[54,396,397],{},"-10.0%",[54,399,129],{},[54,401,135],{},[33,403,404,406,408,411,414,417,419],{},[54,405,140],{},[54,407,87],{},[54,409,410],{},"16.5%",[54,412,413],{},"23.7%",[54,415,416],{},"18.3%",[54,418,143],{},[54,420,149],{},[33,422,423,425,428,431,434,437,439],{},[54,424,154],{},[54,426,427],{},"15.9%",[54,429,430],{},"14.3%",[54,432,433],{},"13.6%",[54,435,436],{},"12.6%",[54,438,157],{},[54,440,163],{},[33,442,443,445,448,451,454,457,459],{},[54,444,168],{},[54,446,447],{},"10.2%",[54,449,450],{},"9.8%",[54,452,453],{},"19.0%",[54,455,456],{},"10.7%",[54,458,171],{},[54,460,177],{},[33,462,463,465,468,470,473,476,478],{},[54,464,182],{},[54,466,467],{},"-7.7%",[54,469,397],{},[54,471,472],{},"-2.6%",[54,474,475],{},"-6.9%",[54,477,185],{},[54,479,191],{},[33,481,482,484,487,490,493,496,498],{},[54,483,196],{},[54,485,486],{},"11.3%",[54,488,489],{},"12.3%",[54,491,492],{},"19.3%",[54,494,495],{},"14.4%",[54,497,199],{},[54,499,205],{},[33,501,502,504,507,510,513,516,518],{},[54,503,210],{},[54,505,506],{},"143.3%",[54,508,509],{},"126.4%",[54,511,512],{},"185.4%",[54,514,515],{},"156.8%",[54,517,213],{},[54,519,219],{},[33,521,522,524,527,529,532,535,537],{},[54,523,224],{},[54,525,526],{},"8.9%",[54,528,334],{},[54,530,531],{},"10.5%",[54,533,534],{},"9.4%",[54,536,227],{},[54,538,233],{},[235,540,541],{},[14,542,543],{},"(1) 计算包括资产价值变化以及当年持有人获得的分红。\n(2) 来源：1967 Moody&# 39;s Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1966。1967 年上半年数据为估算值。",[14,545,546],{},"主要还是靠潮涨潮落，不是游泳的真本事。",[10,548,549],{"id":549},"税项",[14,551,552],{},"进入 1967 年，我们未实现的收益是 16,361,974 美元。截止 6 月 30 日，我们实现了 7,084,104 美元的净资本收益，由此看来，今年年初归属于合伙人权益的未实现收益中的很大一部分，都会在今年实现。在 1967 年 2 月 2 日寄给各位的信中，我们在第三条报告了这一金额。11 月份，我们会将 2 月 2 日信的副本以及税收信函寄给各位，让各位了解大概的纳税情况。",[14,554,555],{},"我一直这样建议大家，在估算中期纳税数字时，使用上一年实际支付的税收金额，这样比较稳妥，不会受罚。",[14,557,558],{},"最终数字是多少还不得而知，但现在知道的是，缴纳的税款中大部分是长期资本利得，短期资本利得和普通所得很少。（有些人计算收益和本金时总是很糊涂，我经常想善意地批评一下。我和苏茜刚结婚的时候，我对她说：“别担心 income（收入），重要的是 outcome（结果）。”）",[10,560,561],{"id":561},"其他事项",[14,563,564],{},"上半年，由于要全身心投入到自己的投资管理工作中，斯坦•波尔米塔 (Stan Perlmeter) 辞去了合伙基金解散委员会的职务。经其余委员选举，小弗雷德•斯坦贝克 (Fred Stanback, Jr.) 填补了空缺。小弗雷德是我们的一位老合伙人，也是一位经验丰富的投资者。",[14,566,567],{},"和往年一样，我们将在 11 月 1 日左右寄出承诺书以及 1967 年纳税估算数据等文件。",[14,569,570],{},"今年有个特殊情况，为了引起各位的注意，我会在 10 月份专门给大家写一封信。我要说的不是修改《合伙协议》，而是由于环境变化，“基本原则”需要进行一些修改。我希望提前通知大家，让大家在安排 1968 年的计划之前有足够的时间消化。《合伙协议》代表我们在法律上达成的一致，“基本原则”代表我们在个人理念上达成的一致。从某些方面来说，我认为“基本原则”这份文件更重要。在我看来，如果有可能影响合伙基金的活动或业绩的变化，一定要事先告诉大家，把一切都讲明白，这就是我为什么 10 月份会专门写一封信给各位。",[14,572,573],{},"沃伦 E. 巴菲特谨上",{"title":575,"searchDepth":576,"depth":576,"links":577},"",2,[],"致股东信","1967年中巴菲特致合伙人信，分享上半年投资业绩及控股类投资公司表现","md",{},true,30,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"description":579},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信｜巴菲特","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","nUnqrEOGOfx49NEHASypNcB9fwgV1-hqjrF_-WsUlmw",1778061724009]