[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":624},["ShallowReactive",2],{"buffett-1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":612,"description":613,"extension":614,"meta":615,"navigation":616,"order":617,"path":618,"seo":619,"seoDescription":613,"seoTitle":620,"slug":621,"stem":622,"__hash__":623},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin.md","1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":608},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,251,257,260,263,266,269,272,573,578,581,584,587,590,593,596,599,602,605],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1968年中-巴菲特致合伙人信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"1968 年 7 月 11 日",[10,18,19],{"id":19},"上半年业绩",[14,21,22],{},"1968 年上半年，道指从 905 点略微下跌到 898 点。上半年持有道指可获得 15 美元的股息，在此期间投资道指的整体收益率为 0.9%。对于大多数基金经理而言，虽然他们没像 1967 年领先道指那么多，但今年上半年，道指仍然是一个比较弱的对手。",[14,24,25],{},"上半年，我们的业绩好得出乎意料。在控股公司估值保持不变的情况下（今年年初，在净资产中，控制类的占比是三分之一多一点），我们的总收益是 16%。这个业绩没什么值得激动的。我们投资的有价证券是重仓集中投资的，只投资了几只，与广泛分散的投资方法相比，我们的相对业绩更容易出现较大的波动。我们的长期业绩目标在修改的“基本原则”中写的很清楚，目标定得不高，但是从长期看，如果真能做到，我就很知足了。按照惯例，下表汇总了我们上半年的业绩：",[27,28,29,52],"table",{},[30,31,32],"thead",{},[33,34,35,39,46,49],"tr",{},[36,37,38],"th",{},"年份",[36,40,41,42,45],{},"道指整体收益率 (1)",[43,44],"br",{},"合伙基金收益率 (2)",[36,47,48],{},"Partnership Results (2)",[36,50,51],{},"有限合伙人收益率 (3)",[53,54,55,70,84,98,112,126,140,154,168,182,196,209,223,237],"tbody",{},[33,56,57,61,64,67],{},[58,59,60],"td",{},"1957",[58,62,63],{},"-8.4%",[58,65,66],{},"10.4%",[58,68,69],{},"9.3%",[33,71,72,75,78,81],{},[58,73,74],{},"1958",[58,76,77],{},"38.5%",[58,79,80],{},"40.9%",[58,82,83],{},"32.2%",[33,85,86,89,92,95],{},[58,87,88],{},"1959",[58,90,91],{},"20.0%",[58,93,94],{},"25.9%",[58,96,97],{},"20.9%",[33,99,100,103,106,109],{},[58,101,102],{},"1960",[58,104,105],{},"-6.2%",[58,107,108],{},"22.8%",[58,110,111],{},"18.6%",[33,113,114,117,120,123],{},[58,115,116],{},"1961",[58,118,119],{},"22.4%",[58,121,122],{},"45.9%",[58,124,125],{},"35.9%",[33,127,128,131,134,137],{},[58,129,130],{},"1962",[58,132,133],{},"-7.6%",[58,135,136],{},"13.9%",[58,138,139],{},"11.9%",[33,141,142,145,148,151],{},[58,143,144],{},"1963",[58,146,147],{},"20.6%",[58,149,150],{},"38.7%",[58,152,153],{},"30.5%",[33,155,156,159,162,165],{},[58,157,158],{},"1964",[58,160,161],{},"18.7%",[58,163,164],{},"27.8%",[58,166,167],{},"22.3%",[33,169,170,173,176,179],{},[58,171,172],{},"1965",[58,174,175],{},"14.2%",[58,177,178],{},"47.2%",[58,180,181],{},"36.9%",[33,183,184,187,190,193],{},[58,185,186],{},"1966",[58,188,189],{},"-15.6%",[58,191,192],{},"20.4%",[58,194,195],{},"16.8%",[33,197,198,201,204,206],{},[58,199,200],{},"1967",[58,202,203],{},"19.0%",[58,205,125],{},[58,207,208],{},"28.4%",[33,210,211,214,217,220],{},[58,212,213],{},"1968 年上半年",[58,215,216],{},"0.9%",[58,218,219],{},"16.0%",[58,221,222],{},"13.5%",[33,224,225,228,231,234],{},[58,226,227],{},"累计收益率",[58,229,230],{},"167.7%",[58,232,233],{},"1880.0%",[58,235,236],{},"1072.0%",[33,238,239,242,245,248],{},[58,240,241],{},"年化复合收益率",[58,243,244],{},"8.9%",[58,246,247],{},"29.6%",[58,249,250],{},"23.8%",[252,253,254],"blockquote",{},[14,255,256],{},"(1) 根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。\n(2) 1957-61 年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。\n(3) 1957-61 年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议，扣除了普通合伙人分成。",[14,258,259],{},"我们只在年末对控股公司进行重新估值，根据现在的情况来看，1968 年归属于我们的盈利应该是 300 多万美元。负责经营控股公司的各位经理人分别是：伯克希尔哈撒韦的肯·切斯 (Ken Chace)、霍赫希尔德科恩公司的路易斯·科恩 (Louis Kohn)、国民赔偿公司 (National Indemnity) 的杰克·林沃特 (Jack Ringwalt) 以及联合棉布商店 (Associated Cotton Shops) 的本·罗斯纳 (Ben Rosner)，他们既有能力，又努力，一如既往地为我们带来出色业绩。",[14,261,262],{},"今年，多元零售公司（Diversified Retailing Company）（霍赫希尔德科恩公司 (Hochschild Kohn) 和联合棉布商店 (Associated Cotton Shops) 的母公司）第一次公开发布了年报。这是因为去年 12 月份，多元零售公司向大约 1000 位投资人公开发售了公司债券。现在多元零售公司的情况有些特殊：从债权人的角度来看，它是一个公众公司；从控股股东角度来看，它是一个私营公司（公司有三个股东，巴菲特合伙基金持股 80%）。随信附上多元零售公司的年报，在今后每年的中期信件中，都会同时把多元零售的年报寄给大家。",[14,264,265],{},"我在之前的信中说了，永久持有控股公司股份也赚钱，但不如来回买卖股权或娴熟地投资有价证券赚钱。尽管如此，如果拥有能力出众的一流经营者，并且回报率令人满意，持有控股公司股份是一种令人愉悦的长期投资。",[10,267,268],{"id":268},"基金公司",[14,270,271],{},"以下是与基金公司业绩的对比：",[27,273,274,298],{},[30,275,276],{},[33,277,278,280,283,286,289,292,295],{},[36,279,38],{},[36,281,282],{},"Mass. Inv. Trust (1)",[36,284,285],{},"Investors Stock (1)",[36,287,288],{},"Lehman (2)",[36,290,291],{},"Tri-Cont. (2)",[36,293,294],{},"道指",[36,296,297],{},"有限合伙人",[53,299,300,319,339,359,379,399,419,438,458,477,496,514,533,553],{},[33,301,302,304,307,310,312,315,317],{},[58,303,60],{},[58,305,306],{},"-11.4%",[58,308,309],{},"-12.4%",[58,311,306],{},[58,313,314],{},"-2.4%",[58,316,63],{},[58,318,69],{},[33,320,321,323,326,329,332,335,337],{},[58,322,74],{},[58,324,325],{},"42.7%",[58,327,328],{},"47.5%",[58,330,331],{},"40.8%",[58,333,334],{},"33.2%",[58,336,77],{},[58,338,83],{},[33,340,341,343,346,349,352,355,357],{},[58,342,88],{},[58,344,345],{},"9.0%",[58,347,348],{},"10.3%",[58,350,351],{},"8.1%",[58,353,354],{},"8.4%",[58,356,91],{},[58,358,97],{},[33,360,361,363,366,369,372,375,377],{},[58,362,102],{},[58,364,365],{},"-1.0%",[58,367,368],{},"-0.6%",[58,370,371],{},"2.5%",[58,373,374],{},"2.8%",[58,376,105],{},[58,378,111],{},[33,380,381,383,386,389,392,395,397],{},[58,382,116],{},[58,384,385],{},"25.6%",[58,387,388],{},"24.9%",[58,390,391],{},"23.6%",[58,393,394],{},"22.5%",[58,396,119],{},[58,398,125],{},[33,400,401,403,406,409,412,415,417],{},[58,402,130],{},[58,404,405],{},"-9.8%",[58,407,408],{},"-13.4%",[58,410,411],{},"-14.4%",[58,413,414],{},"-10.0%",[58,416,133],{},[58,418,139],{},[33,420,421,423,425,428,431,434,436],{},[58,422,144],{},[58,424,91],{},[58,426,427],{},"16.5%",[58,429,430],{},"23.7%",[58,432,433],{},"18.3%",[58,435,147],{},[58,437,153],{},[33,439,440,442,445,448,451,454,456],{},[58,441,158],{},[58,443,444],{},"15.9%",[58,446,447],{},"14.3%",[58,449,450],{},"13.6%",[58,452,453],{},"12.6%",[58,455,161],{},[58,457,167],{},[33,459,460,462,465,468,470,473,475],{},[58,461,172],{},[58,463,464],{},"10.2%",[58,466,467],{},"9.8%",[58,469,203],{},[58,471,472],{},"10.7%",[58,474,175],{},[58,476,181],{},[33,478,479,481,484,486,489,492,494],{},[58,480,186],{},[58,482,483],{},"-7.7%",[58,485,414],{},[58,487,488],{},"-2.6%",[58,490,491],{},"-6.9%",[58,493,189],{},[58,495,195],{},[33,497,498,500,502,504,507,510,512],{},[58,499,200],{},[58,501,91],{},[58,503,108],{},[58,505,506],{},"28.0%",[58,508,509],{},"25.4%",[58,511,203],{},[58,513,208],{},[33,515,516,518,521,523,526,529,531],{},[58,517,213],{},[58,519,520],{},"5.1%",[58,522,374],{},[58,524,525],{},"4.4%",[58,527,528],{},"2.0%",[58,530,216],{},[58,532,222],{},[33,534,535,537,540,543,546,549,551],{},[58,536,227],{},[58,538,539],{},"175.7%",[58,541,542],{},"154.5%",[58,544,545],{},"218.6%",[58,547,548],{},"186.7%",[58,550,230],{},[58,552,236],{},[33,554,555,557,560,563,566,569,571],{},[58,556,241],{},[58,558,559],{},"9.2%",[58,561,562],{},"8.5%",[58,564,565],{},"10.6%",[58,567,568],{},"9.6%",[58,570,244],{},[58,572,250],{},[252,574,575],{},[14,576,577],{},"(1) 计算包括资产价值变化以及当年持有人获得的分红。\n(2) 来源：1968 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1966。1968 年上半年数据为估算值。",[14,579,580],{},"由于过去几年道指表现疲弱，到目前为止，四只最大的基金的平均年化收益率领先道指 0.5 个百分点左右。",[10,582,583],{"id":583},"当前的环境",[14,585,586],{},"我不做预测股市涨跌或经济波动的事，不解释。对于现在的情况，我很担心。当前的股市和商界中有一些行为愈演愈烈，虽然短期内不知道会怎样，但长期内很可能带来恶果。",[14,588,589],{},"有的合伙人对金融领域的事件不太感兴趣（也不必感兴趣）。有的合伙人则比较关注金融领域。我随本信附上了一篇文章，这篇文章有真知灼见，写的简单明了，对当前正在肆意蔓延的现象进行了深刻揭露。如今股票炒作风气盛行，如同==击鼓传花的==恶作剧一般（译注：通过不断收购，虚增每股利润）。无论是发起者、高层员工、专业顾问、投资银行还是股票投机者，只要参与其中的，都赚的盆满钵满。去玩这个游戏的都是容易上当、掩耳盗铃、见钱眼开的人。为了制造假象，账目经常被动手脚（有一位想法很潮的企业家，他对我说，他觉得做账就得大胆、有想象力），资本欺诈手段层出不穷，企业的本来面目被重重伪装所掩盖。最终制造出来的产物很流行、很光鲜、很赚钱（流行、光鲜、赚钱， 这几个词的先后顺序该怎么排列，留给哲学家思考吧）。",[14,591,592],{},"坦白的说，此类行为对我们产生了间接影响，我们的业绩被极大地抬高了。==击鼓传花==的规模要不断增加，需要更多的公司做原料，因此很多本来很便宜和不太便宜的股票就活跃起来了。如果我们正好持有此类股票，我们得以提前收获市场的奖赏，否则还要等更长时间。然而，市场对此类公司的胃口越来越大，最后剩下的，从基本面上看便宜的公司，越来越少。",[14,594,595],{},"当后人记录这一时期的股市和商业历史时，马文·梅 (Marvin May) 先生描述的现象一定会留下浓重的一笔，甚至被认为是一场狂潮。各位应该知道，我在这里说“皇帝没穿衣服”，大多数投行机构和飞黄腾达的基金经理肯定不这么想（或者他们会不以为然地说“那又怎么样?”，“今朝有酒今朝醉”）。在当前的投资环境中，我们周围都是这样的投资者：他们不需要逻辑合理才能相信，他们是一群盲目乐观、没有主见、贪得无厌的人，找各种借口骗自己。",[14,597,598],{},"最后，我要说的是，赶快，现在就去买一本亚当·斯密写的《金钱游戏》(The Money Game)。这本书以精彩的文笔描绘了当前金融领域的众生相，书中充满了深刻的见解和高超的智慧。（备注：虽然我很想参与“支持本地邮局”的活动，但我没随本信附赠此书。这本书售价 6.95 美元。）",[10,600,601],{"id":601},"税项",[14,603,604],{},"今年有一些特殊情况，纳税数字比往年更难估算。我们的普通所得肯定会高于平均水平。至于短期资本利得和长期资本利得是多少，受很多变化因素的影响。在今年年初，我建议各位在计算季度纳税估算数字时，对于各位的巴菲特合伙基金账户，暂时采用 8% 计算普通所得（这个数字与往常不同，其中考虑了长期资本利得）。如果对于 9 月 15 日的季度纳税数字估算，8% 这个数字不太合适，我会在 9 月 5 日通知各位。如果无需更改，那么我的下一封信是 11 月 1 日，连同 1969 年的承诺书一起寄给各位。",[14,606,607],{},"沃伦 E. 巴菲特谨上",{"title":609,"searchDepth":610,"depth":610,"links":611},"",2,[],"致股东信","1968年中巴菲特致合伙人信，分析上半年业绩及市况对合伙基金的影响","md",{},true,34,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"description":613},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信｜巴菲特","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","on8kfJOpeeWiRaSVCwBMeIkdBsbMO34_CybRPyAWrEY",1778061724014]