[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":942},["ShallowReactive",2],{"buffett-2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":930,"description":931,"extension":932,"meta":933,"navigation":934,"order":935,"path":936,"seo":937,"seoDescription":931,"seoTitle":938,"slug":939,"stem":940,"__hash__":941},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2014 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":925},"minimark",[9,13,20,758,772,775,778,790,793,800,803,807,810,813,816,819,822,829,832,835,842,857,864,867,870,873,876,883,890,893,896,903,910,913,916,919,922],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2014-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比",[30,37,38],{},"伯克希尔每股市值年度变动百分比",[30,40,41],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,227,241,255,269,283,297,310,324,338,352,366,379,393,407,421,434,448,462,476,489,503,517,531,545,558,571,584,598,611,624,635,649,663,676,689,703,716,730,744],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"49.5",[48,58,59],{},"10.0",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(3.4)",[48,72,73],{},"(11.7)",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"13.3",[48,86,87],{},"30.9",[27,89,90,93,96,99],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,98],{},"77.8",[48,100,81],{},[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"19.4",[48,113,114],{},"(8.4)",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"(4.6)",[48,127,128],{},"3.9",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"80.5",[48,141,142],{},"14.6",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"8.1",[48,155,156],{},"18.9",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(2.5)",[48,169,170],{},"(14.8)",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(48.7)",[48,183,184],{},"(26.4)",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"2.5",[48,197,198],{},"37.2",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"129.3",[48,211,212],{},"23.6",[27,214,215,218,221,224],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,220],{},"31.9",[48,222,223],{},"46.8",[48,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[27,228,229,232,235,238],{},[48,230,231],{},"1978",[48,233,234],{},"24.0",[48,236,237],{},"14.5",[48,239,240],{},"6.4",[27,242,243,246,249,252],{},[48,244,245],{},"1979",[48,247,248],{},"35.7",[48,250,251],{},"102.5",[48,253,254],{},"18.2",[27,256,257,260,263,266],{},[48,258,259],{},"1980",[48,261,262],{},"19.3",[48,264,265],{},"32.8",[48,267,268],{},"32.3",[27,270,271,274,277,280],{},[48,272,273],{},"1981",[48,275,276],{},"31.4",[48,278,279],{},"31.8",[48,281,282],{},"(5.0)",[27,284,285,288,291,294],{},[48,286,287],{},"1982",[48,289,290],{},"40.0",[48,292,293],{},"38.4",[48,295,296],{},"21.4",[27,298,299,302,304,307],{},[48,300,301],{},"1983",[48,303,268],{},[48,305,306],{},"69.0",[48,308,309],{},"22.4",[27,311,312,315,318,321],{},[48,313,314],{},"1984",[48,316,317],{},"13.6",[48,319,320],{},"(2.7)",[48,322,323],{},"6.1",[27,325,326,329,332,335],{},[48,327,328],{},"1985",[48,330,331],{},"48.2",[48,333,334],{},"93.7",[48,336,337],{},"31.6",[27,339,340,343,346,349],{},[48,341,342],{},"1986",[48,344,345],{},"26.1",[48,347,348],{},"14.2",[48,350,351],{},"18.6",[27,353,354,357,360,363],{},[48,355,356],{},"1987",[48,358,359],{},"19.5",[48,361,362],{},"4.6",[48,364,365],{},"5.1",[27,367,368,371,374,376],{},[48,369,370],{},"1988",[48,372,373],{},"20.1",[48,375,206],{},[48,377,378],{},"16.6",[27,380,381,384,387,390],{},[48,382,383],{},"1989",[48,385,386],{},"44.4",[48,388,389],{},"84.6",[48,391,392],{},"31.7",[27,394,395,398,401,404],{},[48,396,397],{},"1990",[48,399,400],{},"7.4",[48,402,403],{},"(23.1)",[48,405,406],{},"(3.1)",[27,408,409,412,415,418],{},[48,410,411],{},"1991",[48,413,414],{},"39.6",[48,416,417],{},"35.6",[48,419,420],{},"30.5",[27,422,423,426,428,431],{},[48,424,425],{},"1992",[48,427,67],{},[48,429,430],{},"29.8",[48,432,433],{},"7.6",[27,435,436,439,442,445],{},[48,437,438],{},"1993",[48,440,441],{},"14.3",[48,443,444],{},"38.9",[48,446,447],{},"10.1",[27,449,450,453,456,459],{},[48,451,452],{},"1994",[48,454,455],{},"13.9",[48,457,458],{},"25.0",[48,460,461],{},"1.3",[27,463,464,467,470,473],{},[48,465,466],{},"1995",[48,468,469],{},"43.1",[48,471,472],{},"57.4",[48,474,475],{},"37.6",[27,477,478,481,483,486],{},[48,479,480],{},"1996",[48,482,279],{},[48,484,485],{},"6.2",[48,487,488],{},"23.0",[27,490,491,494,497,500],{},[48,492,493],{},"1997",[48,495,496],{},"34.1",[48,498,499],{},"34.9",[48,501,502],{},"33.4",[27,504,505,508,511,514],{},[48,506,507],{},"1998",[48,509,510],{},"48.3",[48,512,513],{},"52.2",[48,515,516],{},"28.6",[27,518,519,522,525,528],{},[48,520,521],{},"1999",[48,523,524],{},"0.5",[48,526,527],{},"(19.9)",[48,529,530],{},"21.0",[27,532,533,536,539,542],{},[48,534,535],{},"2000",[48,537,538],{},"6.5",[48,540,541],{},"26.6",[48,543,544],{},"(9.1)",[27,546,547,550,553,555],{},[48,548,549],{},"2001",[48,551,552],{},"(6.2)",[48,554,538],{},[48,556,557],{},"(11.9)",[27,559,560,563,565,568],{},[48,561,562],{},"2002",[48,564,59],{},[48,566,567],{},"(3.8)",[48,569,570],{},"(22.1)",[27,572,573,576,578,581],{},[48,574,575],{},"2003",[48,577,530],{},[48,579,580],{},"15.8",[48,582,583],{},"28.7",[27,585,586,589,592,595],{},[48,587,588],{},"2004",[48,590,591],{},"10.5",[48,593,594],{},"4.3",[48,596,597],{},"10.9",[27,599,600,603,605,608],{},[48,601,602],{},"2005",[48,604,240],{},[48,606,607],{},"0.8",[48,609,610],{},"4.9",[27,612,613,616,619,622],{},[48,614,615],{},"2006",[48,617,618],{},"18.4",[48,620,621],{},"24.1",[48,623,580],{},[27,625,626,629,631,633],{},[48,627,628],{},"2007",[48,630,81],{},[48,632,583],{},[48,634,178],{},[27,636,637,640,643,646],{},[48,638,639],{},"2008",[48,641,642],{},"(9.6)",[48,644,645],{},"(31.8)",[48,647,648],{},"(37.0)",[27,650,651,654,657,660],{},[48,652,653],{},"2009",[48,655,656],{},"19.8",[48,658,659],{},"2.7",[48,661,662],{},"26.5",[27,664,665,668,671,673],{},[48,666,667],{},"2010",[48,669,670],{},"13.0",[48,672,296],{},[48,674,675],{},"15.1",[27,677,678,681,683,686],{},[48,679,680],{},"2011",[48,682,362],{},[48,684,685],{},"(4.7)",[48,687,688],{},"2.1",[27,690,691,694,697,700],{},[48,692,693],{},"2012",[48,695,696],{},"14.4",[48,698,699],{},"16.8",[48,701,702],{},"16.0",[27,704,705,708,710,713],{},[48,706,707],{},"2013",[48,709,254],{},[48,711,712],{},"32.7",[48,714,715],{},"32.4",[27,717,718,721,724,727],{},[48,719,720],{},"2014",[48,722,723],{},"8.3",[48,725,726],{},"27.0",[48,728,729],{},"13.7",[27,731,732,735,738,741],{},[48,733,734],{},"年复合增长率——1965-2014",[48,736,737],{},"19.4%",[48,739,740],{},"21.6%",[48,742,743],{},"9.9%",[27,745,746,749,752,755],{},[48,747,748],{},"累计总收益——1964-2014",[48,750,751],{},"751,113%",[48,753,754],{},"1,826,163%",[48,756,757],{},"11,196%",[14,759,760,763,764,767,768,771],{},[17,761,762],{},"注释："," 数据均按日历年计，以下年份除外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市值而非成本与市值孰低法对所持股票进行估值。本表中伯克希尔1978年及之前的数据已按新规则进行了重新计算。其他方面的数据均使用最初报告的数字。标普500指数的数据为",[17,765,766],{},"税前","数据，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,769,770],{},"税后","数据。如果伯克希尔这样的企业仅持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，则在指数正回报的年份其业绩将落后于标普500，而在指数负回报的年份则会超过标普500。多年累积下来，税收成本将导致巨大的累积差距。",[14,773,774],{},"2009年底，在\"大衰退\"的阴霾中，我们同意收购BNSF铁路——伯克希尔历史上最大的一笔收购。当时我把这笔交易称为\"对美国经济前景的全押\"。",[14,776,777],{},"这种押注对我们来说并不新鲜。自从1965年巴菲特合伙公司（Buffett Partnership Ltd.）收购伯克希尔的控制权以来，我们就一直在进行类似的押注。理由也很充分：查理和我一直认为，\"押注\"美国将持续繁荣，几乎是板上钉钉的事情。",[14,779,780,781,785,786,789],{},"事实上，在过去238年中，谁曾因为做空美国而获益？如果你把美国今天的状况和1776年相比，简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。仅在我有生之年，美国的",[782,783,784],"em",{},"实际","人均产出就翻了",[782,787,788],{},"六倍","。我的父母在1930年做梦都不会想到他们的儿子将看到的世界。虽然悲观主义的传教士们没完没了地唠叨美国的问题，但我从未见过其中有谁真想移民国外（倒是有几个人，我很乐意为他们买张单程票）。",[14,791,792],{},"市场经济中蕴含的活力将继续施展它的魔力。成果不会以平滑或不间断的方式到来——从来都不是。我们也会经常抱怨政府。但确定无疑的是，美国最好的日子还在前头。",[14,794,795,796,799],{},"借着这股顺风，查理和我希望通过以下方式提升伯克希尔的每股内在价值：(1) 不断提高旗下众多子公司的基本盈利能力；(2) 通过补强收购进一步增加它们的收益；(3) 受益于被投资公司的增长；(4) 当伯克希尔股价大幅低于内在价值时回购股份；(5) 偶尔进行大规模收购。我们还将尽量少发行——如果可能的话不发行——伯克希尔股份，以此为",[782,797,798],{},"你们","最大化成果。",[14,801,802],{},"这些方法都建立在坚如磐石的基础之上。未来百年，BNSF铁路和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源仍将在美国经济中扮演至关重要的角色。住房和汽车仍将是大多数家庭生活的中心。保险对企业和个人仍将不可或缺。展望未来，查理和我看到了一个为伯克希尔量身定做的世界。我们对受托管理伯克希尔深感荣幸。",[804,805,806],"h2",{"id":806},"企业内在价值",[14,808,809],{},"尽管查理和我老是谈论内在商业价值，但我们无法准确地告诉你伯克希尔股票的内在价值是多少（事实上，任何其他股票也做不到）。不过，在2010年的年度报告中，我们列出了三个要素——其中一个是定性的——我们认为这三个要素是合理估算伯克希尔内在价值的关键。完整讨论见年报第123-124页。",[14,811,812],{},"以下是两个定量要素的最新数据：2014年，我们的每股投资增长8.4%至140,123美元，保险和投资以外业务的每股税前收益增长19%至10,847美元。",[14,814,815],{},"自1970年以来，我们的每股投资年复合增长率为19%，税前收益年复合增长率为20.6%。在随后的44年中，伯克希尔股价以与这两个价值指标非常接近的速度增长，这绝非巧合。查理和我当然希望两个方面都增长，但我们的主要精力放在提升经营收益上。这就是为什么去年我们乐于用菲利普66（Phillips 66）和格雷厄姆控股（Graham Holdings）的股票来置换经营性业务，并与宝洁（Procter & Gamble）签约以类似的换股方式收购金霸王，交易预计在2015年完成。",[14,817,818],{},"伯克希尔之所以拥有极具吸引力的保险经济模式，全靠我们有一批杰出的经理人，他们运营着纪律严明、商业模式难以复制的业务。让我来介绍几个主要部门。",[14,820,821],{},"按浮存金规模排名，首先是由阿吉特·贾恩（Ajit Jain）管理的伯克希尔再保险集团（Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group）。阿吉特承保的是别人不愿承保或没有资本承保的风险。他的团队集能力、速度和果断于一身，更重要的是，他的思维方式在保险界独一无二。然而，他从未让伯克希尔暴露于与我们资源不相称的风险之中。",[14,823,824,825,828],{},"事实上，在避免风险方面，我们",[782,826,827],{},"远比","大多数大型保险公司保守。举个例子，如果保险业因某次超级巨灾遭受2,500亿美元的损失——大约是历史最高损失的三倍——伯克希尔作为整体，凭借众多收益来源，当年依然很可能录得可观的利润。我们也将继续现金充裕，并在一个可能已经陷入混乱的市场中寻找大量投资机会。而其他大型保险和再保险公司即使没有面临破产，也会深陷亏损。",[14,830,831],{},"阿吉特的承保技艺无人能及。他的大脑更是一座创意工厂，总在寻找可以加入现有产品线的新业务。去年我向你们介绍了他新组建的伯克希尔特种保险公司（Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance，简称\"BHSI\"）。这一举措将我们带入了商业保险领域，我们立刻受到了全美主要保险经纪和企业风险经理的欢迎。此前，我们只承保了寥寥几个商业保险险种。",[14,833,834],{},"BHSI由彼得·伊斯特伍德（Peter Eastwood）领导，他是一位经验丰富、备受保险界尊敬的资深承保人。2014年，彼得扩大了他的精英团队，进军国际业务和新的保险险种。我们再次预测，BHSI将成为伯克希尔的重要资产，几年内承保规模将达到数十亿美元。",[14,836,837,838,841],{},"最后是盖可保险（GEICO），64年前我正是从它身上入的行。GEICO由托尼·奈斯利（Tony Nicely）管理，他18岁就加入了公司，到2014年已经为公司效力了53年。1993年托尼成为CEO，此后公司就一路高歌猛进。",[782,839,840],{},"没有","比托尼更出色的经理了。",[14,843,844,845,848,849,852,853,856],{},"1951年1月，我第一次接触GEICO时，就被该公司相对于行业巨头们的巨大成本优势所震撼。在我看来很清楚，GEICO注定会成功，因为它",[782,846,847],{},"配得上","成功。没人",[782,850,851],{},"喜欢","买车险。但几乎所有人都喜欢开车。买车险因此成为大多数家庭的一大笔支出。省钱对他们很重要——而",[782,854,855],{},"只有","低成本的运营商才能帮他们省钱。事实上，至少有40%读这封信的人可以通过在GEICO投保来省钱。所以，先别读了，上geico.com或者打800-368-2734吧。",[14,858,859,860,863],{},"GEICO的成本优势是推动它年复一年持续扩大市场份额的关键因素。（1995年伯克希尔取得GEICO控制权时，市场份额为2.5%；2014年底已达10.8%。）公司的低成本打造了一条护城河——一条",[782,861,862],{},"持久","的护城河——竞争对手根本跨不过去。我们的壁虎（Gecko）吉祥物不知疲倦地告诉美国人GEICO能帮他们省下多少钱。我得说，这只小壁虎有一个特别讨人喜欢的品质——它免费工作。不像人类代言人，它从不因名声膨胀，也从来不会有经纪人不停提醒我们它有多值钱。我爱这个小家伙。",[14,865,866],{},"简单来说，保险就是销售承诺。\"客户\"现在付钱，保险公司承诺在未来发生某些不希望发生的事情时支付赔款。",[14,868,869],{},"有时候，这些承诺可能几十年都不需要兑现。（想想20多岁的人买的人寿保险。）因此，保险公司的偿付能力和偿付意愿都至关重要——即使到了付款的时候经济一片混乱。",[14,871,872],{},"伯克希尔的承诺无可比拟，近年来全世界一些最大、最资深的财产保险公司用行动证实了这一点——它们希望摆脱规模巨大、期限超长的负债。也就是说，这些保险公司想把这些负债——主要是石棉索赔的潜在损失——\"分出\"给再保险公司。不过，它们需要找对人：如果再保险公司未能履约赔付，原保险公司仍然要承担责任。所以，如果选择的再保险公司日后陷入财务困境或者不守信用，原保险公司就面临着巨额负债重新回到自己头上的威胁。",[14,874,875],{},"去年，我们承保了一张保费高达30亿美元的保单，再次确认了我们在再保险领域的领头地位。据我所知，这张保单的规模仅次于我们2007年与劳合社（Lloyd's）的交易——当时保费为71亿美元。",[14,877,878,879,882],{},"事实上，据我所知，历史上单笔保费超过10亿美元的财产意外险保单只有8张。没错，8张全是伯克希尔承保的。其中有些合约要求我们在50年甚至更久以后进行大额赔付。当大型保险公司需要一份无可质疑的赔付承诺时，伯克希尔是唯一的选择——",[782,880,881],{},"唯一","的选择。",[14,884,885,886,889],{},"回到我们众多的制造、服务和零售业务。它们销售的产品从棒棒糖到喷气飞机无所不包。按未加杠杆的净",[782,887,888],{},"有形","资产收益率衡量，这个板块中有些业务的经济效益极佳，税后利润率从25%到远超100%不等。另一些业务的回报率在12%到20%之间也相当不错。不过，也有少数业务回报率非常低，那是我在资本配置上犯的一些严重错误的结果。我没有被误导，只是在评估公司或行业的经济动态时判断失误了。",[14,891,892],{},"幸运的是，我的失误通常只涉及相对较小的收购。我们的大型收购整体表现良好，个别甚至非常出色。但我在购买企业或股票时还没犯完最后一个错误。并非所有事情都能按计划进行。",[14,894,895],{},"作为一个整体来看，这个板块是一家优秀企业。2014年，它们平均使用了240亿美元的净有形资产，尽管持有大量超额现金且几乎没有使用杠杆，税后资本回报率依然高达18.7%。",[14,897,898,899,902],{},"当然，再好的企业如果买贵了，也可能是一笔糟糕的投资。我们为大多数业务的净有形资产支付了可观的溢价，这一成本反映在我们报告的巨额商誉数字中。不过总体而言，我们在这个板块投入的资本获得了体面的回报。而且，这些业务的合计内在价值远超账面价值，这个溢价还可能进一步扩大。即便如此，保险板块和受监管行业板块的内在价值与账面价值之间的差距",[782,900,901],{},"远远更大","。真正的大赢家就在那里。",[14,904,905,906,909],{},"细心的读者会注意到，去年出现在我们最大普通股投资名单上的乐购（Tesco）如今已经消失了。坦率地说——我挺不好意思的——一位",[782,907,908],{},"专注","的投资者早就该卖掉乐购的股票。我在这笔投资上犯了一个大错，错在拖拖拉拉。",[14,911,912],{},"2012年底，我们持有4.15亿股乐购股票。当时（现在也是），乐购是英国最大的食品零售商，在其他国家也是一家重要的食杂商。我们这笔投资的成本是23亿美元，市值也大致相当。",[14,914,915],{},"2013年，我对乐购当时的管理层有些不满，于是卖出了1.14亿股，实现了4,300万美元的收益。事后证明，我慢吞吞的卖出节奏代价高昂。查理管这种行为叫\"吮拇指\"。（考虑到我的拖延给我们造成的损失，他这么说已经算客气了。）",[14,917,918],{},"2014年，乐购的问题逐月恶化。公司市场份额下滑，利润率萎缩，会计问题浮出水面。在商界，坏消息往往是接踵而至的：你在厨房里看到一只蟑螂，过几天就会碰上它的亲戚。",[14,920,921],{},"我们全年都在卖出乐购股票，现在已经彻底清仓了。（应该提一句，这家公司已经聘用了新的管理层，我们祝他们一切顺利。）我们这笔投资的税后亏损为4.44亿美元，约占伯克希尔净资产的0.2%。在过去50年中，我们只有一次投资在卖出时的亏损达到净资产的2%。另外有两次亏损达到1%。这三次亏损都发生在1974-1975年间，当时我们以很低的价格卖出股票，是为了买进我们认为更便宜的股票。",[14,923,924],{},"每到年会期间，我们都会得到数以千计的奥马哈居民和企业的大力帮助，他们希望各位宾至如归。今年，由于预计出席人数将创纪录，我们担心酒店房间可能不够。为解决这个潜在问题，Airbnb正在特别努力地为年会期间搜集房源，预计将提供多种多样的住宿选择。Airbnb的服务可能对那些只计划在奥马哈住一晚的股东特别有帮助——去年有些酒店要求客人最少住三晚。那可不便宜。预算紧张的人应该查看Airbnb的网站。",{"title":926,"searchDepth":927,"depth":927,"links":928},"",2,[929],{"id":806,"depth":927,"text":806},"致股东信","2014年巴菲特致股东信，讨论并购业务、伯克希尔业绩创新高、保险业务表现","md",{},true,87,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":931},"2014 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