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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":696,"body":818,"category":676,"chapterOrder":9,"date":9,"description":698,"editor":1351,"extension":1352,"meta":1353,"navigation":1354,"order":699,"path":1355,"publishedAt":9,"seo":1356,"seoDescription":698,"seoTitle":1357,"slug":697,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":9,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":1358,"sourceStatus":1359,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":1360,"stem":1368,"summary":698,"tags":1369,"type":688,"updatedAt":1372,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"__hash__":1373,"_collection":1374},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fcompany-people\u002Fcompany-pop-mart.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":1329},"minimark",[821,825,829,833,841,845,857,863,868,871,876,879,882,887,890,893,896,899,904,907,912,920,923,933,942,951,954,958,961,1076,1106,1115,1124,1127,1130,1133,1136,1139,1158,1167,1170,1173,1176,1179,1182,1185,1188,1191,1196,1199,1203,1206,1210,1213,1217,1220,1223,1232,1235,1238,1255,1258,1261,1264,1267,1270,1278,1281,1311,1314],[822,823,696],"h1",{"id":824},"泡泡玛特有定价权吗段永平视角下的提价能力",[826,827,828],"h2",{"id":828},"一句话结论",[830,831,832],"p",{},"按段永平理解企业的方式，泡泡玛特已经出现了定价权迹象，但还没有经过完整验证。现有资料能够证明的，是差异化新品可以进入更高的单件价格带，而且部分热门 IP 在这些价格上需求旺盛。",[830,834,835,836,840],{},"这与同款产品持续涨价不是一回事。材质、尺寸、工艺、IP 热度和供给量往往同时变化，公开数据没有把品牌、产品升级和价格各自带来的影响分开。本文因此把它称为",[837,838,839],"strong",{},"定价权迹象","，而不是已经得到证明的长期定价权。",[826,842,844],{"id":843},"先把定价权说清楚","先把“定价权”说清楚",[830,846,847,848,852,853,856],{},"段永平把",[849,850,151],"a",{"href":851},"\u002Fdingjiaquan","和",[849,854,74],{"href":855},"\u002Fhuchenghe","直接联系在一起：",[858,859,860],"blockquote",{},[830,861,862],{},"定价权就是“护城河”吧？（2010-05-18）",[858,864,865],{},[830,866,867],{},"能涨价的东西就表示他有“护城河”。（2010-05-28）",[830,869,870],{},"但这不等于价格越高，护城河越深。他谈产品定价时还说过：",[858,872,873],{},[830,874,875],{},"定价很简单，就是你给客户带来的价值的一部分，所以跟客户和价值都有关。（2017-11-15）",[830,877,878],{},"因此，判断泡泡玛特有没有定价权，不能只看一个玩偶的材料成本，也不能只看毛利率。要回答的是：用户为什么愿意多付钱？价格提高后，他们会不会减少购买，或者转向其他品牌？",[830,880,881],{},"用户购买泡泡玛特产品，既是在买 PVC 或毛绒制品，也是在为审美、收藏、惊喜、社交表达、陪伴和品牌信任付钱。段永平后来用“情绪价值”理解这家公司，最简洁的一句话是：",[858,883,884],{},[830,885,886],{},"喜欢就是价值啊。（2026-07-06）",[830,888,889],{},"喜欢本身可以产生价值，但喜欢也会变化。这给泡泡玛特形成定价权提供了基础，也带来了持续性风险。",[826,891,892],{"id":892},"段永平为什么改变了看法",[830,894,895],{},"段永平最初并没有看懂泡泡玛特。2025年8月，他认为产品和创始人都很有意思，公司能做到当时的规模很了不起，但“看不懂10年后公司会怎样”。到2026年1月，他仍在追问：人们为什么需要这些东西，万一过两年大家都不要了呢？",[830,897,898],{},"转变发生在他把潮玩和自己熟悉的游戏体验联系起来之后。他意识到，人们喜欢一件东西，不需要得到不喜欢者的理解。随后，他重新梳理了泡泡玛特已经形成的壁垒：",[858,900,901],{},[830,902,903],{},"泡泡玛特的壁垒目前看上去有几个：已经建立起来的用户关注度（品牌），艺术家的签约壁垒，全球各地的门店，强大的王宁和他的team（包括生产，物流，品质以及一切及其他）。（2026-04-09）",[830,905,906],{},"他的结论仍然带着前提：",[858,908,909],{},[830,910,911],{},"泡泡玛特的壁垒远比想象中强大，只要潮玩会有持续性，泡泡玛特就是非常好的生意了。（2026-04-09）",[830,913,914,915,919],{},"这两段话很适合用来理解泡泡玛特的定价权。品牌、艺术家、门店和供应链能够让喜欢潮玩的人持续关注泡泡玛特，却不能保证人们永远喜欢潮玩。公司层面的壁垒已经出现，品类需求的寿命仍需时间证明。更多上下文见",[849,916,918],{"href":917},"\u002Fwenda-company-pop-mart","泡泡玛特公司问答","。",[826,921,922],{"id":922},"新品开始进入更高价格带",[830,924,925,926,932],{},"2021年4月，SKULLPANDA、一禅小和尚和 VIVICAT 等新品采用69元定价，而此前主流盲盒价格多为59元，两个价格点相差16.9%。旧系列大多仍维持59元，新品的设计、零件和工艺也有变化，因此这不是同款商品从59元直接涨到69元。公司给出的解释是原材料和人工成本上升，同时新品更加复杂。",[849,927,931],{"href":928,"rel":929},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.yicai.com\u002Fnews\u002F101035918.html",[930],"nofollow","第一财经的门店调查","记录了这次价格变化。",[830,934,935,936,941],{},"消费者的反应并不一致。有人认为，只要设计和品控匹配，69元可以接受；也有人表示继续涨价就会“退坑”。SKULLPANDA 新品当时仍出现长时间排队和快速售罄。",[849,937,940],{"href":938,"rel":939},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tfcaijing.com\u002Farticle\u002Fpage\u002F2f72564a45304b6448524469386372525a7a547449413d3d",[930],"时代财经的现场报道","只能证明这批新品在69元发售价下需求旺盛。由于设计、工艺和备货量也发生了变化，不能据此算出提价对销量的影响。",[830,943,944,945,950],{},"到2025年，泡泡玛特的产品价格带更宽。LABUBU“前方高能”搪胶毛绒挂件定价99元，Mini LABUBU“心底密码”定价79元。后者上线后迅速售罄，天猫页面显示销量超过30万件。",[849,946,949],{"href":947,"rel":948},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.chinanews.com.cn\u002Fcj\u002F2025\u002F08-29\u002F10473193.shtml",[930],"中国新闻网的发售记录","提供了当时的价格和市场表现。",[830,952,953],{},"不过，79元、99元的产品在尺寸、材质、款式数量和使用场景上都与早期59元的 PVC 手办不同。把它们连成“59元涨到99元”的直线，会夸大同款提价能力。现有资料只能说明，泡泡玛特通过产品变化进入了新的价格带。",[826,955,957],{"id":956},"提价之后用户还愿意买吗","提价之后，用户还愿意买吗",[830,959,960],{},"从公司整体数据看，2025年的需求很强，但这些数据不能单独回答“同一款商品提价后，用户是否还愿意买”。品牌、新品、渠道和供给同时变化，财报没有提供严格的提价前后对照。",[962,963,964,987],"table",{},[965,966,967],"thead",{},[968,969,970,974,978,981,984],"tr",{},[971,972,973],"th",{},"年度",[971,975,977],{"align":976},"right","收入",[971,979,980],{"align":976},"收入增速",[971,982,983],{"align":976},"毛利率",[971,985,986],{"align":976},"会员复购率",[988,989,990,1008,1025,1042,1059],"tbody",{},[968,991,992,996,999,1002,1005],{},[993,994,995],"td",{},"2021",[993,997,998],{"align":976},"44.91亿元",[993,1000,1001],{"align":976},"78.7%",[993,1003,1004],{"align":976},"61.4%",[993,1006,1007],{"align":976},"56.5%",[968,1009,1010,1013,1016,1019,1022],{},[993,1011,1012],{},"2022",[993,1014,1015],{"align":976},"46.17亿元",[993,1017,1018],{"align":976},"2.8%",[993,1020,1021],{"align":976},"57.5%",[993,1023,1024],{"align":976},"50.7%",[968,1026,1027,1030,1033,1036,1039],{},[993,1028,1029],{},"2023",[993,1031,1032],{"align":976},"63.01亿元",[993,1034,1035],{"align":976},"36.5%",[993,1037,1038],{"align":976},"61.3%",[993,1040,1041],{"align":976},"50.0%",[968,1043,1044,1047,1050,1053,1056],{},[993,1045,1046],{},"2024",[993,1048,1049],{"align":976},"130.38亿元",[993,1051,1052],{"align":976},"106.9%",[993,1054,1055],{"align":976},"66.8%",[993,1057,1058],{"align":976},"49.4%",[968,1060,1061,1064,1067,1070,1073],{},[993,1062,1063],{},"2025",[993,1065,1066],{"align":976},"371.20亿元",[993,1068,1069],{"align":976},"184.7%",[993,1071,1072],{"align":976},"72.1%",[993,1074,1075],{"align":976},"55.7%",[830,1077,1078,1079,1084,1085,1084,1090,1084,1095,1100,1101,919],{},"资料来自泡泡玛特",[849,1080,1083],{"href":1081,"rel":1082},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww1.hkexnews.hk\u002Flistedco\u002Flistconews\u002Fsehk\u002F2022\u002F0328\u002F2022032800311_c.pdf",[930],"2021年","、",[849,1086,1089],{"href":1087,"rel":1088},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww1.hkexnews.hk\u002Flistedco\u002Flistconews\u002Fsehk\u002F2023\u002F0329\u002F2023032900312_c.pdf",[930],"2022年",[849,1091,1094],{"href":1092,"rel":1093},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.hkexnews.hk\u002Flistedco\u002Flistconews\u002Fsehk\u002F2024\u002F0320\u002F2024032000318_c.pdf",[930],"2023年",[849,1096,1099],{"href":1097,"rel":1098},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.hkexnews.hk\u002Flistedco\u002Flistconews\u002Fsehk\u002F2025\u002F0326\u002F2025032600228_c.pdf",[930],"2024年","及",[849,1102,1105],{"href":1103,"rel":1104},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.hkexnews.hk\u002Flistedco\u002Flistconews\u002Fsehk\u002F2026\u002F0325\u002F2026032500286_c.pdf",[930],"2025年业绩公告",[830,1107,1108,1109,1114],{},"公司披露，2025年全年全 IP、全品类产品的全球销量超过4亿件，其中 THE MONSTERS 超过1亿件。",[849,1110,1113],{"href":1111,"rel":1112},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww1.hkexnews.hk\u002Flistedco\u002Flistconews\u002Fsehk\u002F2026\u002F0209\u002F2026020901221_c.pdf",[930],"公司自愿公告","证明当年实物销售规模很大。不过，公司没有同时披露2024年的可比销量，因此不能由此计算销量增速，也不能拆分价格和销量各自贡献了多少收入增长。",[830,1116,1117,1118,1123],{},"2026年第一季度，未经审计的整体收入继续同比增长75%至80%，中国收入增长100%至105%。",[849,1119,1122],{"href":1120,"rel":1121},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.hkexnews.hk\u002Flistedco\u002Flistconews\u002Fsehk\u002F2026\u002F0512\u002F2026051200580_c.pdf",[930],"公司最新业务公告","说明强需求没有在2025年结束后立即消失，但其中依然混合了新品、渠道扩张和用户增长，不能单独归因于定价。",[830,1125,1126],{},"会员复购率也需要看清定义。财报中的55.7%，指2025年购买两次或以上的会员占比，不是多年前老会员在2025年仍然购买的比例。它能说明当年用户有重复购买行为，不能证明同一批用户在多年提价后仍然留下。",[826,1128,1129],{"id":1129},"价格随产品一起变",[830,1131,1132],{},"泡泡玛特目前表现出来的能力，主要是把变化后的产品放进更高的单件价格带，而不是反复修改旧产品价格。",[830,1134,1135],{},"2025年，毛绒产品收入由28.32亿元增加到187.08亿元，同比增长560.6%，收入占比从21.7%升到50.4%。传统手办的收入占比则从53.2%降到32.4%。产品结构在一年内发生了很大变化。",[830,1137,1138],{},"泡泡玛特实现更高单件标价，主要有以下几种办法：",[1140,1141,1142,1146,1149,1152,1155],"ul",{},[1143,1144,1145],"li",{},"把热门 IP 做成毛绒挂件、手办、MEGA、配饰和生活用品；",[1143,1147,1148],{},"通过尺寸、材质、工艺和款式变化建立新的价格参照；",[1143,1150,1151],{},"为不同 IP 设计不同的产品节奏，而不是采用统一价格；",[1143,1153,1154],{},"在海外使用当地价格体系；",[1143,1156,1157],{},"将 IP 延伸到乐园、甜品和其他体验场景。",[830,1159,1160,1161,1166],{},"以同一款“前方高能”搪胶毛绒挂件为例，中国市场发售价为99元，美国官方商店标价为27.99美元。",[849,1162,1165],{"href":1163,"rel":1164},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.popmart.com\u002Fus\u002Fcollection\u002F143\u002Flabubu-plush",[930],"泡泡玛特美国官网","显示了这种区域差异。汇率、物流、关税、租金和当地运营都会影响价格，两个数字不能直接比较。官网页面只能证明公司采用了区域化价格体系；当地消费者能否长期接受，还要结合销量、复购和折扣观察。",[830,1168,1169],{},"段永平谈泡泡玛特甜品时，也使用了类似逻辑。他认为粉丝愿意多花一点钱体验泡泡玛特甜品，因此产品可以卖得比一般甜品贵一些；如果销量更大，公司又有机会反过来把产品做得更好。品牌由此进入新的消费场景，提价空间来自新的价值，而非反复修改原来玩偶的标签。",[826,1171,1172],{"id":1172},"定价权并不平均分布",[830,1174,1175],{},"即使公司层面出现定价权迹象，落到具体商品，价格弹性也会有差别。下面的分层是分析框架，不是财报披露的消费者调查结论。",[830,1177,1178],{},"热门 IP 提供了目前最强的正面证据。79元和99元的 LABUBU 新品曾在较短时间内售罄，说明这些发售批次在官方价格上有充足需求。但售罄还受备货量、渠道流量和二手交易影响，不能直接算出用户对涨价的敏感程度。",[830,1180,1181],{},"对于普通喜欢者，涨价可能先影响购买频次，而不是立即变成完全不买。例如从经常购买变成只选最喜欢的系列。这是消费行为上的合理假设，公司现有披露还不能验证。财报只提供年度复购比例，没有公布会员购买次数的分布和长期留存。",[830,1183,1184],{},"普通 IP 和低辨识度产品可能更容易受到价格约束。潮玩没有很高的转换成本，消费者可以换品牌，也可以什么都不买。产品如果缺少设计差异，仅凭泡泡玛特的名字提高价格，可能带来折扣和库存压力。",[830,1186,1187],{},"热门 IP 的供不应求不能自动推及公司所有产品。公司下一步需要证明的是，即使某个爆款降温，它仍能让用户把注意力留在泡泡玛特，并找到下一个愿意付费的产品。",[826,1189,1190],{"id":1190},"四个反面信号",[1192,1193,1195],"h3",{"id":1194},"_1-2022年并不轻松","1. 2022年并不轻松",[830,1197,1198],{},"2022年公司收入只增长2.8%，毛利率从61.4%降到57.5%。财报称，自主产品毛利率下降与工艺复杂、原材料上涨及促销活动有关。财报没有直接披露提价能力，但这一时期至少说明，成本、产品结构和促销都可能明显挤压利润率，强品牌也无法让经营结果脱离这些因素。",[1192,1200,1202],{"id":1201},"_2-高毛利率不等于全部来自提价","2. 高毛利率不等于全部来自提价",[830,1204,1205],{},"2025年毛利率达到72.1%。公司解释，提升主要来自海外销售占比增加，以及柔性供应链和集中采购降低成本。因此，高毛利率可以证明商业模式盈利能力强，却不能单独证明用户对涨价不敏感。",[1192,1207,1209],{"id":1208},"_3-爆款集中度仍然较高","3. 爆款集中度仍然较高",[830,1211,1212],{},"2025年 THE MONSTERS 收入141.61亿元，占公司总收入38.1%。与此同时，公司共有17个艺术家 IP 收入超过1亿元，SKULLPANDA、CRYBABY、MOLLY、DIMOO、星星人等也已形成规模。两组数据要放在一起看：泡泡玛特已经不是只有一个 IP，但当年增长仍明显受益于 LABUBU。",[1192,1214,1216],{"id":1215},"_4-库存正在考验真实需求","4. 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供不应求；",[1143,1250,1251],{},"海外市场在门店成熟后能否保持销量和较高毛利率；",[1143,1253,1254],{},"存货周转天数、折扣率和产品质量是否出现持续恶化。",[830,1256,1257],{},"这些指标放在一起，才能看清消费者支付的是长期价值，还是一轮爆款和短缺带来的热度。",[826,1259,1260],{"id":1260},"最后的判断",[830,1262,1263],{},"现有资料支持一个较窄的结论：泡泡玛特具备销售更高价差异化新品的能力，也出现了定价权迹象。2021年的新品价格、2025年的新品销售、销量和会员复购，仍不足以把溢价单独归因于品牌，更不能证明同款产品可以长期无损提价。",[830,1265,1266],{},"段永平说“喜欢就是价值”。泡泡玛特能否把产品做得更好，并让用户进入新的价格带，已经有了一些答案。十年以后，它还能不能让足够多的人保持这份喜欢，并愿意为此多付一点钱，才是定价权最终要经受的检验。",[826,1268,1269],{"id":1269},"相关人物",[1140,1271,1272],{},[1143,1273,1274],{},[849,1275,1277],{"href":1276},"\u002Fperson-wangning","王宁",[826,1279,1280],{"id":1280},"相关概念",[1140,1282,1283,1287,1291,1296,1301,1306],{},[1143,1284,1285],{},[849,1286,151],{"href":851},[1143,1288,1289],{},[849,1290,74],{"href":855},[1143,1292,1293],{},[849,1294,141],{"href":1295},"\u002Fpinpai",[1143,1297,1298],{},[849,1299,146],{"href":1300},"\u002Fchayihua",[1143,1302,1303],{},[849,1304,70],{"href":1305},"\u002Fshangyemoshi",[1143,1307,1308],{},[849,1309,53],{"href":1310},"\u002Fxiaofeizhedaoxiang",[826,1312,1313],{"id":1313},"来源档案与相关材料",[1140,1315,1316,1320,1324],{},[1143,1317,1318],{},[849,1319,918],{"href":917},[1143,1321,1322],{},[849,1323,151],{"href":851},[1143,1325,1326],{},[849,1327,399],{"href":1328},"\u002Fduanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu",{"title":1330,"searchDepth":21,"depth":21,"links":1331},"",[1332,1333,1334,1335,1336,1337,1338,1339,1345,1346,1347,1348,1349,1350],{"id":828,"depth":21,"text":828},{"id":843,"depth":21,"text":844},{"id":892,"depth":21,"text":892},{"id":922,"depth":21,"text":922},{"id":956,"depth":21,"text":957},{"id":1129,"depth":21,"text":1129},{"id":1172,"depth":21,"text":1172},{"id":1190,"depth":21,"text":1190,"children":1340},[1341,1342,1343,1344],{"id":1194,"depth":26,"text":1195},{"id":1201,"depth":26,"text":1202},{"id":1208,"depth":26,"text":1209},{"id":1215,"depth":26,"text":1216},{"id":1222,"depth":21,"text":1222},{"id":1234,"depth":21,"text":1234},{"id":1260,"depth":21,"text":1260},{"id":1269,"depth":21,"text":1269},{"id":1280,"depth":21,"text":1280},{"id":1313,"depth":21,"text":1313},"寻长坡以滚雪球","md",{},true,"\u002Fdao\u002Fcompany-people\u002Fcompany-pop-mart",{"title":696,"description":698},"泡泡玛特有定价权吗？价格、复购与长期提价能力｜段永平投资问答录","本页为编者依据已收集发言所作的公司、人物或专题整理；所列站内档案用于核对对应语境，不是企业现状评级或首发证明。","archive",[1361,1364,1366],{"title":1362,"url":1363,"kind":1359},"本站档案：护城河与差异化 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