[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":493},["ShallowReactive",2],{"dao-jiazhitouzi":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":481,"description":482,"extension":483,"meta":484,"navigation":485,"order":486,"path":27,"seo":487,"seoDescription":488,"seoTitle":489,"slug":490,"stem":491,"__hash__":492},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fjiazhitouzi.md","价值投资",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":453},"minimark",[9,12,16,41,62,65,70,78,87,98,110,120,124,142,161,165,173,176,183,199,206,229,234,260,263,267,275,283,287,300,304,309,313,318,321,336,357,366,375,378,392,400,414,426,437,445],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":5},[13,14,15],"h2",{"id":15},"定义与起源",[17,18,19,23,24,28,29,32,33,35,36,40],"p",{},[20,21,22],"strong",{},"段永平","接触",[25,26,5],"a",{"href":27},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjiazhitouzi","的起点是阅读",[20,30,31],{},"巴菲特","的著作和理论。他在2006年网易证券访谈中回忆：\"我想这也是很久以来的一个想法吧。因为从我一开始做投资，我就从他那里学到很多东西，而且很重要的是他的投资理论给了我很大的信心，所以如果没有了",[20,34,31],{},"的投资理论，说不定我也不敢做投资。因为，我以前觉得所谓的股票市场就是一个很",[25,37,39],{"href":38},"\u002Fdao\u002Ftouji","投机","的东西，说不清、道不明的东西。\"（2006年，网易证券全程实录）",[17,42,43,44,46,47,49,50,54,55,57,58,61],{},"2007年与",[20,45,31],{},"共进午餐后，",[20,48,22],{},"在网易专访中说：\"我在电子邮件里说，我跟他学到的最重要的东西是：买股票就像买一个公司的一部分，买股票就要",[25,51,53],{"href":52},"\u002Fdao\u002Fzhangqichiyou","长期持有","。\"",[20,56,31],{},"回信说：\"你说的就是我当年跟本杰明.",[20,59,60],{},"格雷厄姆","学的，正是这个理念改变了我的看法，影响了我的一生。\"",[13,63,64],{"id":64},"核心要义",[66,67,69],"h3",{"id":68},"_1-投资就是价值投资没有其他路径","1. 投资就是价值投资，没有其他路径",[17,71,72,74,75,77],{},[20,73,22],{},"反复强调，",[25,76,5],{"href":27},"不是投资的一个流派，而是投资的唯一含义。",[79,80,81],"blockquote",{},[17,82,83,84,86],{},"\"其实",[25,85,5],{"href":27},"是所谓投资的唯一一条路，不然你投的是什么？\"",[79,88,89],{},[17,90,91,92,94,95,97],{},"\"我跟好多人讲，他就是讲不明白。说哎呀",[25,93,5],{"href":27},"就是长期投资，不是的。",[25,96,5],{"href":27},"，那请问他还有别的投资办法吗？其实他是没有的。你投的就是价值，如果你不投价值，你投的是什么？\"（2025年浙大演讲）",[66,99,101,102,106],{"id":100},"_2-核心公式买股票买公司买未来现金流折现","2. 核心公式：买股票=买公司=买未来",[25,103,105],{"href":104},"\u002Fdao\u002Fxianjinliu","现金流",[25,107,109],{"href":108},"\u002Fdao\u002Fzhexian","折现",[79,111,112],{},[17,113,114,115,117,119],{},"\"我理解的投资归纳起来就是:买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买公司的未来",[25,116,105],{"href":104},[25,118,109],{"href":108},"，句号!\"",[66,121,123],{"id":122},"_3-道与术的区分","3. 道与术的区分",[17,125,126,128,129,131,132,136,137,141],{},[20,127,22],{},"将",[25,130,5],{"href":27},"分为\"道\"和\"术\"两个层次。道是",[25,133,135],{"href":134},"\u002Fdao\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","做对的事情","，术是",[25,138,140],{"href":139},"\u002Fdao\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","把事情做对","。",[79,143,144],{},[17,145,146,147,149,150,152,153,155,156,160],{},"\"我个人以为",[25,148,5],{"href":27},"的'术'就是如何研究企业未来",[25,151,105],{"href":104},"（",[25,154,109],{"href":108},"）的问题。老巴的'",[25,157,159],{"href":158},"\u002Fdao\u002Fhuchenghe","护城河","'、好的管理团队等都属于'术'的范畴。其实这个'术'是很难从书本上学到的，学校里一般也没人可以教，大概只能自己慢慢悟了。\"（2011-01-05）",[66,162,164],{"id":163},"_4-不频繁决策","4. 不频繁决策",[79,166,167],{},[17,168,169,170,172],{},"\"不要一年做20个决策。1年做20个决策，肯定会出错，那不是",[25,171,5],{"href":27},"。一辈子做20个投资决策就够了。\"（2018-09-30）",[13,174,175],{"id":175},"实战案例",[66,177,179,182],{"id":178},"网易2001-2003年",[20,180,181],{},"网易","（2001-2003年）",[17,184,185,186,188,189,191,192,194,195,198],{},"2001年底，",[20,187,22],{},"以约1美元的价格买入",[20,190,181],{},"股票，2003年10月",[20,193,181],{},"股价飙升至70美元，市值翻了约50倍。他当时是全仓买入。这笔投资的基础是他对游戏行业的深刻理解——他自己就是做游戏（",[20,196,197],{},"小霸王","）出身的。",[66,200,202,205],{"id":201},"苹果2011年至今",[20,203,204],{},"苹果","（2011年至今）",[17,207,208,209,211,212,214,215,217,218,221,222,226,227,141],{},"2011年，",[20,210,22],{},"买入",[20,213,204],{},"股票，持有至2025年已14年。他买入时",[20,216,204],{},"市值约3000亿美元，手持1000亿净现金，利润不到200亿。他判断未来5年利润会大涨。对",[20,219,220],{},"苹果****生意模式","和",[25,223,225],{"href":224},"\u002Fdao\u002Fqiyewenhua","企业文化","的理解让他能够",[25,228,53],{"href":52},[66,230,232],{"id":231},"茅台",[20,233,231],{},[17,235,236,53,238,240,241,243,244,221,247,250,251,253,254,256,257,259],{},[20,237,22],{},[20,239,231],{},"，认为它类似于",[20,242,31],{},"投资的",[20,245,246],{},"喜诗糖果",[20,248,249],{},"可口可乐","。他说：\"很多人说，",[25,252,5],{"href":27},"很难。但",[25,255,39],{"href":38},"更难！我买",[20,258,231],{},"一直拿着，拿了十几年，我难在哪儿了？\"（2025年）",[13,261,262],{"id":262},"常见误解",[66,264,266],{"id":265},"误解一价值投资等于长期投资","误解一：价值投资等于长期投资",[79,268,269],{},[17,270,271,272,274],{},"\"说哎呀",[25,273,5],{"href":27},"就是长期投资，不是的。\"（2025年浙大演讲）",[17,276,277,279,280,282],{},[20,278,22],{},"强调，",[25,281,5],{"href":27},"的核心是投\"价值\"，长期持有只是结果而非目的。买错了公司长期持有反而更危险。",[66,284,286],{"id":285},"误解二价值投资很难","误解二：价值投资很难",[79,288,289],{},[17,290,291,292,253,294,296,297,299],{},"\"很多人说，",[25,293,5],{"href":27},[25,295,39],{"href":38},"更难！",[25,298,39],{"href":38},"百分之八九十的散户都是亏钱的，牛市、熊市都亏。\"（2025年）",[66,301,303],{"id":302},"误解三需要很多专业知识","误解三：需要很多专业知识",[79,305,306],{},[17,307,308],{},"\"也许你没看我写的是什么。我这里有一点很重要的就是认为大多数人其实不碰股票就是最好的投资，除非你认为自己确实有自己了解的好公司处在便宜的价钱。\"（2012-04-09）",[66,310,312],{"id":311},"误解四需要走捷径","误解四：需要走捷径",[79,314,315],{},[17,316,317],{},"\"其实你没走弯路，因为那根本就不是路。\"（2012-01-31）",[13,319,320],{"id":320},"思想演变",[17,322,323,326,327,329,330,332,333,335],{},[20,324,325],{},"2001-2006年（实践期）","：",[20,328,22],{},"从做企业转向投资，通过投资",[20,331,181],{},"验证了",[20,334,31],{},"的理论。这个阶段他主要关注的是\"买股票就是买公司\"这个基本理念。",[17,337,338,341,342,46,344,346,347,349,350,353,354,356],{},[20,339,340],{},"2006-2010年（深化期）","：与",[20,343,31],{},[20,345,22],{},"从",[20,348,31],{},"那里学到了\"首先看",[20,351,352],{},"生意模式","\"的重要性。他开始将",[20,355,352],{},"作为投资的第一过滤器。",[17,358,359,362,363,365],{},[20,360,361],{},"2010-2020年（成熟期）","：在雪球等平台上分享投资心得，将",[25,364,5],{"href":27},"的理解归纳为简洁的框架。强调\"信仰\"——从骨子里相信，不会因任何影响而动摇。",[17,367,368,371,372,374],{},[20,369,370],{},"2020-2025年（回归简单期）","：越来越强调\"投资就是",[25,373,5],{"href":27},"\"的同义反复，不再纠缠于概念的区分。2025年在浙大和方三文对话中，表述更加直白朴素。",[13,376,377],{"id":377},"原话引用",[79,379,380],{},[17,381,382,383,385,386,388,389,391],{},"\"其实投资就是",[25,384,5],{"href":27},"的意思，不然投资投的是啥？公司价值是什么？就是公司未来",[25,387,105],{"href":104},"的",[25,390,109],{"href":108},"啊。\"",[79,393,394],{},[17,395,396,397,399],{},"\"",[25,398,5],{"href":27},"是所谓投资的唯一一条路，不存在什么捷径。不存在什么窍门。如果你想走轻松的路，我保证：它比艰难的路更长更痛苦。\"（2019-07-30）",[79,401,402],{},[17,403,404,405,407,408,410,411,413],{},"\"投资其实就是",[25,406,5],{"href":27},"。你不投价值，那你投的是什么？但",[25,409,39],{"href":38},"不一样，人家",[25,412,39],{"href":38},"投资在机会上，你这样讲也OK。\"（2025年浙大演讲）",[79,415,416],{},[17,417,396,418,422,423,425],{},[25,419,421],{"href":420},"\u002Fdao\u002Fnaixin","耐心","是一个真正所谓",[25,424,5],{"href":27},"者一定要具有的，如果你不具有就没有机会。\"（2006年新浪财经）",[79,427,428],{},[17,429,396,430,433,434,436],{},[20,431,432],{},"芒格","讲没见过40岁以下的",[25,435,5],{"href":27},"者或许就是这个意思？\"（2011-12-31）",[79,438,439],{},[17,440,441,442,444],{},"\"做短线就是错的事情（玩玩而已那可以理解），做真正的",[25,443,5],{"href":27},"那就是对的事情。\"——网友总结，段永平回复：\"恩，你的解释很对。\"（2010-03-14）",[79,446,447],{},[17,448,449,450,452],{},"\"不打算拿十年的'投资'最好就不要碰，不要想着市场或者风口啥的。打算拿十年的结果未必就一定要拿十年的，但不打算拿十年的心态会让你很容易做一个",[25,451,39],{"href":38},"的决定。\"（2026-01-23）",{"title":454,"searchDepth":455,"depth":455,"links":456},"",2,[457,458,466,473,479,480],{"id":15,"depth":455,"text":15},{"id":64,"depth":455,"text":64,"children":459},[460,462,464,465],{"id":68,"depth":461,"text":69},3,{"id":100,"depth":461,"text":463},"2. 核心公式：买股票=买公司=买未来现金流折现",{"id":122,"depth":461,"text":123},{"id":163,"depth":461,"text":164},{"id":175,"depth":455,"text":175,"children":467},[468,470,472],{"id":178,"depth":461,"text":469},"网易（2001-2003年）",{"id":201,"depth":461,"text":471},"苹果（2011年至今）",{"id":231,"depth":461,"text":231},{"id":262,"depth":455,"text":262,"children":474},[475,476,477,478],{"id":265,"depth":461,"text":266},{"id":285,"depth":461,"text":286},{"id":302,"depth":461,"text":303},{"id":311,"depth":461,"text":312},{"id":320,"depth":455,"text":320},{"id":377,"depth":455,"text":377},"投资理念","段永平接触价值投资的起点是阅读巴菲特的著作和理论。他在2006年网易证券访谈中回忆：\"我想这也是很久以来的一个想法吧。因为从我一开始做投资，我就从他那里学到很多东西，而且很重要的是他的投资理论给了我很...","md",{},true,9,{"title":5,"description":482},"段永平谈价值投资：段永平接触价值投资的起点是阅读巴菲特的著作和理论。他在2006年网易证券访谈中回忆：\"我想这也是很久以来的一个想法吧。因为从我一开始做投资，我就从他那里学到很多东西，而且很重要的是他的投资理论给了我很...","价值投资｜大道总纲","jiazhitouzi","dao\u002Fjiazhitouzi","zYkLACTGOvM7SRHRTe75kGfyuzAeTwj4ai1iG28VpWo",1777884960154]