[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":421},["ShallowReactive",2],{"dao-jibenmian":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":409,"description":410,"extension":411,"meta":412,"navigation":413,"order":414,"path":22,"seo":415,"seoDescription":416,"seoTitle":417,"slug":418,"stem":419,"__hash__":420},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fjibenmian.md","基本面",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":382},"minimark",[9,12,16,47,55,58,63,72,92,96,109,115,119,127,140,144,163,166,173,181,191,197,205,208,216,221,224,235,238,242,250,254,259,263,275,278,295,307,322,331,334,343,350,355,363,370],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":5},[13,14,15],"h2",{"id":15},"定义与起源",[17,18,19,23,24,28,29,33,34,38,39,41,42,46],"p",{},[20,21,5],"a",{"href":22},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjibenmian","在",[25,26,27],"strong",{},"段永平","的投资语境中，指的是对一家公司生意本身的深度了解——包括其",[20,30,32],{"href":31},"\u002Fdao\u002Fshangyemoshi","商业模式","、",[20,35,37],{"href":36},"\u002Fdao\u002Fqiyewenhua","企业文化","、产品竞争力、未来盈利能力等。他把关注",[20,40,5],{"href":22},"视为区分投资与",[20,43,45],{"href":44},"\u002Fdao\u002Ftouji","投机","的关键标志。",[17,48,49,51,52,54],{},[25,50,27],{},"在2006年网易证券对话中就已经使用这一概念：\"做投资和做企业本身没有本质的差异，至少对我来讲是这样的。所以我现在还是觉得在做企业，只是用了不同的方式……对于会做企业的人，做投资成功的机会就大，你要是不会做，往往就变成了",[20,53,45],{"href":44},"。\"（2006年）",[13,56,57],{"id":57},"核心要义",[59,60,62],"h3",{"id":61},"_1-做企业的经验是理解基本面的基础","1. 做企业的经验是理解基本面的基础",[64,65,66],"blockquote",{},[17,67,68,69,71],{},"\"做投资和做企业本身没有本质的差异，至少对我来讲是这样的。所以我现在还是觉得在做企业，只是用了不同的方式……对于会做企业的人，做投资成功的机会就大，你要是不会做，往往就变成了",[20,70,45],{"href":44},"。\"（2006年网易证券对话）",[17,73,74,76,77,80,81,84,85,88,89,91],{},[25,75,27],{},"自己做过",[25,78,79],{},"小霸王","和",[25,82,83],{},"步步高","两家企业，这些实战经验是他能看懂",[25,86,87],{},"苹果","等公司",[20,90,5],{"href":22},"的关键。",[59,93,95],{"id":94},"_2-用平常心看基本面忘记成本忽略市场","2. 用平常心看基本面，忘记成本，忽略市场",[64,97,98],{},[17,99,100,101,105,106,108],{},"\"大概很少有人在涨了100倍依然不动心的，所以最关键的还是",[20,102,104],{"href":103},"\u002Fdao\u002Fpingchangxin","平常心","去看",[20,107,5],{"href":22},"，忘记成本，忽略市场。\"（2012-03-14）",[17,110,111,112,114],{},"这句话在投资问答录中反复出现，是",[25,113,27],{},"投资方法论的核心之一。",[59,116,118],{"id":117},"_3-基本面是使用期权option的前提","3. 基本面是使用期权（option）的前提",[64,120,121],{},[17,122,123,124,126],{},"\"使用option时最重要的就是不要为option而option，只有对",[20,125,5],{"href":22},"非常明白时才有可能有时用一下。还有就是不要用margin做option。\"（2011-10-04）",[64,128,129],{},[17,130,131,132,134,135,139],{},"\"option一定是建立在对",[20,133,5],{"href":22},"的理解上。非",[20,136,138],{"href":137},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjiazhitouzi","价值投资","的人做option多数都会反着做，最后大多都会很难看。\"（2011-04-09）",[59,141,143],{"id":142},"_4-基本面分析框架商业模式企业文化合理估值","4. 基本面分析框架：商业模式+企业文化+合理估值",[17,145,146,147,150,151,153,154,156,157,159,160,162],{},"在雪球上，",[25,148,149],{},"方三文","（不明真相的群众）曾总结出企业",[20,152,5],{"href":22},"的简易分析框架：\"",[20,155,32],{"href":31},"，",[20,158,37],{"href":36},"，合理估值。\"",[25,161,27],{},"认可这一总结。",[13,164,165],{"id":165},"实战案例",[59,167,169,172],{"id":168},"网易从基本面看到100倍收益",[25,170,171],{},"网易","：从基本面看到100倍收益",[64,174,175],{},[17,176,100,177,105,179,108],{},[20,178,104],{"href":103},[20,180,5],{"href":22},[17,182,183,23,185,187,188,190],{},[25,184,27],{},[25,186,171],{},"上赚了100多倍，但他强调自己并非因为股价涨了就一直持有，而是因为持续关注",[20,189,5],{"href":22},"——公司的游戏业务本身在不断增长。",[59,192,194,196],{"id":193},"苹果基本面的反映",[25,195,87],{},"：基本面的反映",[64,198,199],{},[17,200,201,202,204],{},"\"所谓'动能'不过是",[20,203,5],{"href":22},"的反映而已，该来的早晚会来的，而且也是在礼拜一到礼拜五中的某一天。\"（2012-03-09）",[59,206,207],{"id":207},"做空基本面的风险",[64,209,210],{},[17,211,212,213,215],{},"\"确实是非常危险的。不该做空的理由：做空时不光要面对",[20,214,5],{"href":22},"，还要面对市场的疯狂。\"（2012-06-26）",[17,217,218,220],{},[25,219,27],{},"自己也因做空百度而付出了惨痛代价。",[59,222,223],{"id":223},"一位朋友的故事",[64,225,226],{},[17,227,228,229,231,232,234],{},"\"他做了30年，非常有天赋，非常看",[20,230,5],{"href":22},"，非常努力，绝不轻易出手，有过好多次经典的投资，也有过几次死里逃生的经历……即便如此，他已经富过超过一次了。\"（2015-03-05）——这位朋友用margin，即使看",[20,233,5],{"href":22},"很准也多次险些倾覆。",[13,236,237],{"id":237},"常见误解",[59,239,241],{"id":240},"误解一基本面分析需要复杂的模型","误解一：基本面分析需要复杂的模型",[17,243,244,246,247,249],{},[25,245,27],{},"不用复杂的财务模型，而是用\"毛估估\"的方式看公司",[20,248,5],{"href":22},"。他强调拥有一家公司的心态比掌握分析工具更重要。",[59,251,253],{"id":252},"误解二勤奋调研就能看懂基本面","误解二：勤奋调研就能看懂基本面",[64,255,256],{},[17,257,258],{},"\"过多拜访公司容易短视。我的意思是，很多人拜访公司是为了了解公司短期运营的状况，这种心态对长期投资的帮助不一定大。\"（2010-04-12）",[59,260,262],{"id":261},"误解三量化可以替代基本面研究","误解三：量化可以替代基本面研究",[17,264,265,266,268,269,271,272,274],{},"一位网友问是否应该从",[20,267,138],{"href":137},"转做量化交易。段永平回答：\"你如果做'",[20,270,138],{"href":137},"'很赚钱的话，你为什么想转？如果你连做'",[20,273,138],{"href":137},"'都不赚钱的话，你能干的过人家幻方？\"（2025-01-22）",[13,276,277],{"id":277},"思想演变",[17,279,280,283,284,286,287,80,289,291,292,294],{},[25,281,282],{},"1990年代-2000年代（企业家阶段）","：",[25,285,27],{},"从经营",[25,288,79],{},[25,290,83],{},"中积累了深厚的",[20,293,5],{"href":22},"分析能力，尤其是对消费电子行业。",[17,296,297,300,301,303,304,306],{},[25,298,299],{},"2001-2006年（早期投资阶段）","：将做企业的经验应用到股票投资中，通过分析",[25,302,171],{},"的游戏业务",[20,305,5],{"href":22},"获得了巨大成功。",[17,308,309,312,313,315,316,318,319,321],{},[25,310,311],{},"2006-2015年（体系化阶段）","：在网上与网友互动中，将",[20,314,5],{"href":22},"分析的方法论明确为\"",[20,317,32],{"href":31},"+",[20,320,37],{"href":36},"+合理估值\"。",[17,323,324,327,328,330],{},[25,325,326],{},"2020年代（成熟阶段）","：更加强调\"忘记成本，忽略市场\"，把注意力完全放在生意本身。反对将",[20,329,5],{"href":22},"分析复杂化。",[13,332,333],{"id":333},"原话引用",[64,335,336],{},[17,337,338,339,105,341,108],{},"\"最关键的还是",[20,340,104],{"href":103},[20,342,5],{"href":22},[64,344,345],{},[17,346,123,347,349],{},[20,348,5],{"href":22},"非常明白时才有可能有时用一下。\"（2011-10-04）",[64,351,352],{},[17,353,354],{},"\"做投资和做企业本身没有本质的差异，至少对我来讲是这样的。\"（2006年）",[64,356,357],{},[17,358,131,359,134,361,139],{},[20,360,5],{"href":22},[20,362,138],{"href":137},[64,364,365],{},[17,366,201,367,369],{},[20,368,5],{"href":22},"的反映而已，该来的早晚会来的。\"（2012-03-09）",[64,371,372],{},[17,373,374,375,377,378,381],{},"\"事实上，我们通常都是利用某些历史事件发生，悲观气氛到达顶点时，找到最好的进场机会，恐惧虽然是盲从者的敌人，但却是",[20,376,5],{"href":22},"信徒的好朋友。\"（引用",[25,379,380],{},"巴菲特","1994年原话）",{"title":383,"searchDepth":384,"depth":384,"links":385},"",2,[386,387,394,402,407,408],{"id":15,"depth":384,"text":15},{"id":57,"depth":384,"text":57,"children":388},[389,391,392,393],{"id":61,"depth":390,"text":62},3,{"id":94,"depth":390,"text":95},{"id":117,"depth":390,"text":118},{"id":142,"depth":390,"text":143},{"id":165,"depth":384,"text":165,"children":395},[396,398,400,401],{"id":168,"depth":390,"text":397},"网易：从基本面看到100倍收益",{"id":193,"depth":390,"text":399},"苹果：基本面的反映",{"id":207,"depth":390,"text":207},{"id":223,"depth":390,"text":223},{"id":237,"depth":384,"text":237,"children":403},[404,405,406],{"id":240,"depth":390,"text":241},{"id":252,"depth":390,"text":253},{"id":261,"depth":390,"text":262},{"id":277,"depth":384,"text":277},{"id":333,"depth":384,"text":333},"投资理念","基本面在段永平的投资语境中，指的是对一家公司生意本身的深度了解——包括其商业模式、企业文化、产品竞争力、未来盈利能力等。他把关注基本面视为区分投资与投机的关键标志。","md",{},true,15,{"title":5,"description":410},"段永平谈基本面：基本面在段永平的投资语境中，指的是对一家公司生意本身的深度了解——包括其商业模式、企业文化、产品竞争力、未来盈利能力等。他把关注基本面视为区分投资与投机的关键标志。","基本面｜大道总纲","jibenmian","dao\u002Fjibenmian","PyEo9C8mIyiwd_11P9W5v9iISjKmi-FuBCg8kz1UMzw",1777884960157]