[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":430},["ShallowReactive",2],{"dao-jihuichengben":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":418,"description":419,"extension":420,"meta":421,"navigation":422,"order":423,"path":22,"seo":424,"seoDescription":425,"seoTitle":426,"slug":427,"stem":428,"__hash__":429},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fjihuichengben.md","机会成本",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":393},"minimark",[9,12,16,40,56,59,64,79,93,97,105,109,125,129,150,153,157,165,172,175,178,193,200,208,211,219,225,228,232,241,245,250,253,257,262,270,273,282,291,312,324,327,337,345,352,358,366,374,383],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":5},[13,14,15],"h2",{"id":15},"定义与起源",[17,18,19,23,24,28,29,33,34,36,37,39],"p",{},[20,21,5],"a",{"href":22},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjihuichengben","在",[25,26,27],"strong",{},"段永平","的投资体系中有两层含义：一是作为",[20,30,32],{"href":31},"\u002Fdao\u002Fzhexian","折现","率的基准（每个投资者的",[20,35,5],{"href":22},"不同，决定了他应该用什么标准来评估投资机会）；二是作为投资决策的核心考量（持有一只股票的",[20,38,5],{"href":22},"是你放弃的其他投资机会）。",[17,41,42,43,45,46,49,50,52,53,55],{},"这一概念最早在2001年的经营语境中就已出现。",[25,44,27],{},"在谈及",[25,47,48],{},"步步高","是否应该多元化时就使用了",[20,51,5],{"href":22},"的思维：\"我不做手机不等于我不做别的东西。问题是做什么东西好，这就是一个",[20,54,5],{"href":22},"的问题。\"（2001年《经营天下》访谈）",[13,57,58],{"id":58},"核心要义",[60,61,63],"h3",{"id":62},"_1-折现率就是个人的机会成本","1. 折现率就是个人的机会成本",[65,66,67],"blockquote",{},[17,68,69,70,72,73,75,76,78],{},"\"",[20,71,32],{"href":31},"率实际上是相对于投资人的",[20,74,5],{"href":22},"而言的。最低的",[20,77,5],{"href":22},"就是无风险回报率，比如美国国债的利率。\"",[65,80,81],{},[17,82,83,84,86,87,89,90,92],{},"\"我总觉得每个人给出的'",[20,85,32],{"href":31},"率'应该是每个人自己的（长期）最大",[20,88,5],{"href":22},"。对很多不懂投资的人们而言，最合适的",[20,91,5],{"href":22},"应该是无风险利率。\"（2025-10-05）",[60,94,96],{"id":95},"_2-持有就是买入卖出与买入成本无关","2. 持有就是买入，卖出与买入成本无关",[65,98,99],{},[17,100,101,102,104],{},"\"每天的收盘价就是我们的",[20,103,5],{"href":22},"，没有卖就等于买了，否则可以买其他。所以非常认同段老师的卖和买入成本无关的说法。\"——网友总结，段永平回复：\"赞。\"（2010-03-31）",[60,106,108],{"id":107},"_3-选最好的商业模式就是管理机会成本","3. 选最好的商业模式就是管理机会成本",[65,110,111],{},[17,112,113,114,116,117,121,122,124],{},"\"这是个",[20,115,5],{"href":22},"问题，你总是挑你自己能看懂的公司里面",[20,118,120],{"href":119},"\u002Fdao\u002Fshangyemoshi","商业模式","最好的投。如果你觉得",[20,123,120],{"href":119},"一般的潜台词就是你知道有更好的，那你为什么要放着更好的不投而去投一般的呢?\"（2021-10-24）",[60,126,128],{"id":127},"_4-把苹果作为机会成本的标杆","4. 把苹果作为机会成本的标杆",[65,130,131],{},[17,132,133,134,137,138,140,141,143,144,146,147,149],{},"\"在我的理解里，",[25,135,136],{},"苹果","的",[20,139,120],{"href":119},"非常强大，未来的复利回报大概率是会高过长期美国国债的。我总是习惯把美国长期国债作为第一",[20,142,5],{"href":22},"（就是最低的意思），",[25,145,136],{},"第二。所以除非看到未来几十年会好过",[25,148,136],{},"的公司，不然我不愿意换的。\"（2022-01-27）",[13,151,152],{"id":152},"实战案例",[60,154,156],{"id":155},"做空百度的教训机会成本最大的错误","做空百度的教训：机会成本最大的错误",[65,158,159],{},[17,160,161,162,164],{},"\"最可惜的是，这次错误把我们的现金储备全部消耗掉了，",[20,163,5],{"href":22},"巨大，不然这次金融危机我就可以帮大家赚更多钱了。\"（2010-03-07）",[65,166,167],{},[17,168,69,169,171],{},[20,170,5],{"href":22},"大，亏点钱是小事。\"（2010-05-12）",[17,173,174],{},"做空百度不仅亏了1.5-2亿美元，更大的损失是消耗了现金储备，导致2008年金融危机时错过了更好的投资机会。",[60,176,177],{"id":177},"守着烂公司的机会成本",[65,179,180],{},[17,181,182,183,186,187,189,190,192],{},"\"花了很长时间，守着一个",[25,184,185],{},"生意模式","很烂的公司，",[20,188,5],{"href":22},"很高，心情也不好吧?花掉的时间也是",[20,191,5],{"href":22},"。\"（2015-09-09）",[60,194,196,199],{"id":195},"茅台的机会成本计算",[25,197,198],{},"茅台","的机会成本计算",[65,201,202],{},[17,203,204,205,207],{},"\"假如你有一笔现金，长期没有使用计划，你觉得投在哪里最舒服（合算）?每个人的",[20,206,5],{"href":22},"都不一样，自己看着办吧。\"（2022-05-02）",[60,209,210],{"id":210},"多元化经营中的机会成本",[65,212,213],{},[17,214,215,216,218],{},"\"我不做手机不等于我不做别的东西。问题是做什么东西好，这就是一个",[20,217,5],{"href":22},"的问题。\"（2001年）",[17,220,221,222,224],{},"这里的",[20,223,5],{"href":22},"思维不仅适用于投资，也适用于企业经营——做一件事的代价是放弃了另一件可能更好的事。",[13,226,227],{"id":227},"常见误解",[60,229,231],{"id":230},"误解一机会成本只是金钱","误解一：机会成本只是金钱",[17,233,234,235,237,238,240],{},"时间也是",[20,236,5],{"href":22},"。\"花掉的时间也是",[20,239,5],{"href":22},"。\"",[60,242,244],{"id":243},"误解二应该追求最高回报率","误解二：应该追求最高回报率",[65,246,247],{},[17,248,249],{},"\"一旦心里有了要求回报率，动作就可能变形，因为人们是有可能为了达到这个要求回报率去铤而走险的。\"",[17,251,252],{},"应该有的是\"可接受回报率\"的底线（国债利率），而不是要求回报率。",[60,254,256],{"id":255},"误解三用指数作为机会成本基准","误解三：用指数作为机会成本基准",[65,258,259],{},[17,260,261],{},"\"其实跟什么比并不能改变你投资的原则。我喜欢选个标准比较低一点的，满足感比较好。\"",[17,263,264,266,267,269],{},[25,265,27],{},"习惯用国债利率而非标普指数作为",[20,268,5],{"href":22},"的最低基准。",[13,271,272],{"id":272},"思想演变",[17,274,275,278,279,281],{},[25,276,277],{},"2001年（经营阶段）","：在企业经营中已经使用",[20,280,5],{"href":22},"思维来思考多元化和产品选择。",[17,283,284,287,288,290],{},[25,285,286],{},"2006-2010年（投资初期）","：在做空百度事件中深刻体验了",[20,289,5],{"href":22},"的巨大影响——不仅是亏损本身，更是错失了金融危机中的投资良机。",[17,292,293,296,297,299,300,302,303,305,306,308,309,311],{},[25,294,295],{},"2011-2022年（体系化阶段）","：将",[20,298,5],{"href":22},"概念融入投资体系的核心，明确\"",[20,301,32],{"href":31},"率=个人",[20,304,5],{"href":22},"\"的等式，并以国债利率作为底线、",[25,307,136],{},"作为标杆来管理自己的",[20,310,5],{"href":22},"。",[17,313,314,317,318,320,321,323],{},[25,315,316],{},"2025年","：在与方三文对话和雪球问答中继续深化这一概念，更加明确地将",[20,319,32],{"href":31},"率和个人",[20,322,5],{"href":22},"挂钩。",[13,325,326],{"id":326},"原话引用",[65,328,329],{},[17,330,69,331,72,333,75,335,78],{},[20,332,32],{"href":31},[20,334,5],{"href":22},[20,336,5],{"href":22},[65,338,339],{},[17,340,341,342,344],{},"\"对，就是",[20,343,5],{"href":22},"的意思。\"（2010年）",[65,346,347],{},[17,348,161,349,351],{},[20,350,5],{"href":22},"巨大。\"（2010-03-07）",[65,353,354],{},[17,355,69,356,171],{},[20,357,5],{"href":22},[65,359,360],{},[17,361,362,363,365],{},"\"你愿意给多少P\u002FE完全取决于你自己的能力或者说你自己的资金的",[20,364,5],{"href":22},"，其实和市场无关。\"（2011-10-01）",[65,367,368],{},[17,369,370,371,373],{},"\"要想搞懂自己不擅长的东西往往没有那么容易，同样的",[20,372,5],{"href":22},"（时间）在自己明白的圈子里往往有大得多的回报。\"（2011-03-04）",[65,375,376],{},[17,377,113,378,116,380,382],{},[20,379,5],{"href":22},[20,381,120],{"href":119},"最好的投。\"（2021-10-24）",[65,384,385],{},[17,386,182,387,186,389,189,391,192],{},[25,388,185],{},[20,390,5],{"href":22},[20,392,5],{"href":22},{"title":394,"searchDepth":395,"depth":395,"links":396},"",2,[397,398,405,411,416,417],{"id":15,"depth":395,"text":15},{"id":58,"depth":395,"text":58,"children":399},[400,402,403,404],{"id":62,"depth":401,"text":63},3,{"id":95,"depth":401,"text":96},{"id":107,"depth":401,"text":108},{"id":127,"depth":401,"text":128},{"id":152,"depth":395,"text":152,"children":406},[407,408,409,410],{"id":155,"depth":401,"text":156},{"id":177,"depth":401,"text":177},{"id":195,"depth":401,"text":195},{"id":210,"depth":401,"text":210},{"id":227,"depth":395,"text":227,"children":412},[413,414,415],{"id":230,"depth":401,"text":231},{"id":243,"depth":401,"text":244},{"id":255,"depth":401,"text":256},{"id":272,"depth":395,"text":272},{"id":326,"depth":395,"text":326},"投资理念","机会成本在段永平的投资体系中有两层含义：一是作为折现率的基准（每个投资者的机会成本不同，决定了他应该用什么标准来评估投资机会）；二是作为投资决策的核心考量（持有一只股票的机会成本是你放弃的其他投资机会...","md",{},true,16,{"title":5,"description":419},"段永平谈机会成本：机会成本在段永平的投资体系中有两层含义：一是作为折现率的基准（每个投资者的机会成本不同，决定了他应该用什么标准来评估投资机会）；二是作为投资决策的核心考量（持有一只股票的机会成本是你放弃的其他投资机会...","机会成本｜大道总纲","jihuichengben","dao\u002Fjihuichengben","qPJY_F0w02Qm7L9pO-DmzVyjVYcIpHD1_xZVcqAQ07M",1777884960159]