[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":471},["ShallowReactive",2],{"dao-touji":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":459,"description":460,"extension":461,"meta":462,"navigation":463,"order":464,"path":22,"seo":465,"seoDescription":466,"seoTitle":467,"slug":468,"stem":469,"__hash__":470},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Ftouji.md","投机",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":434},"minimark",[9,12,16,37,46,59,62,67,75,86,100,104,116,129,133,141,149,153,161,171,174,177,193,197,205,211,214,232,235,243,246,250,256,267,271,281,285,299,310,315,318,332,340,346,358,361,368,377,385,392,398,406,420,426],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":5},[13,14,15],"h2",{"id":15},"定义与起源",[17,18,19,23,24,28,29,33,34,36],"p",{},[20,21,5],"a",{"href":22},"\u002Fdao\u002Ftouji","在",[25,26,27],"strong",{},"段永平","的框架中是与",[20,30,32],{"href":31},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjiazhitouzi","价值投资","对立的概念。他在1999年做客人民大学时就已经在经营理念中体现了反",[20,35,5],{"href":22},"的思想——强调\"播种、耕种，然后才收获\"，反对\"投入2000万短时间挣两亿\"的诱惑。",[17,38,39,40,42,43,45],{},"在投资语境中，段永平2006年首次系统区分了投资与",[20,41,5],{"href":22},"：\"股票市场绝大多数人是在",[20,44,5],{"href":22},"的。\"（2006年新浪财经）",[47,48,49],"blockquote",{},[17,50,51,52,54,55,58],{},"\"我以前觉得所谓的股票市场就是一个很",[20,53,5],{"href":22},"的东西，说不清、道不明的东西。\"（2006年网易证券对话）——直到了解",[25,56,57],{},"巴菲特","后他才对投资有了\"豁然开朗的心情\"。",[13,60,61],{"id":61},"核心要义",[63,64,66],"h3",{"id":65},"_1-投机与投资的本质区别","1. 投机与投资的本质区别",[47,68,69],{},[17,70,71,72,74],{},"\"",[20,73,5],{"href":22},"和投资的概念，看起来在行为上似乎很近似，但结果上差异会很大。\"（2006年网易证券对话）",[47,76,77],{},[17,78,79,80,82,83,85],{},"\"投资这个游戏其实只有一个玩法，就是'",[20,81,32],{"href":31},"'。",[20,84,5],{"href":22},"则有不同的玩法，到赌场有很多玩法，可以玩'大小'等等，什么都可以玩。\"（2007年网易专访）",[47,87,88],{},[17,89,90,91,93,94,96,97,99],{},"\"投资其实就是",[20,92,32],{"href":31},"。你不投价值，那你投的是什么？但",[20,95,5],{"href":22},"不一样，人家",[20,98,5],{"href":22},"投资在机会上，你这样讲也OK。\"（2025年浙大演讲）",[63,101,103],{"id":102},"_2-投机会上瘾","2. 投机会上瘾",[47,105,106],{},[17,107,108,109,111,112,115],{},"\"呵呵，",[20,110,5],{"href":22},"是会上瘾的，不好改。这是",[25,113,114],{},"芒格","说的。\"",[47,117,118],{},[17,119,120,121,123,124,128],{},"\"其实每个人都有一颗",[20,122,5],{"href":22},"的心，所以才需要信仰。我对信仰的理解就是'",[20,125,127],{"href":126},"\u002Fdao\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","做对的事情","'，或者说知道是'不对的事情'就别做了。人们热爱做'不对的事情'是因为这类事情往往有短期诱惑。\"",[63,130,132],{"id":131},"_3-用融资就是投机","3. 用融资就是投机",[47,134,135],{},[17,136,137,138,140],{},"\"因为你从事的是很长期的事业，但是用到融资就变成短期的",[20,139,5],{"href":22},"了，一旦价格影响，就会导致你出现巨大的亏损。\"（2006年新浪财经）",[47,142,143],{},[17,144,145,146,148],{},"\"投资用的是闲钱，不然就是",[20,147,5],{"href":22},"了。\"",[63,150,152],{"id":151},"_4-投机者的下场","4. 投机者的下场",[47,154,155],{},[17,156,157,158,160],{},"\"你看那些，很",[20,159,5],{"href":22},"很有名的那些人，大部分死得都很惨。这是真事，真死了，或者说生意也死得很惨，国内也不是没有。作为一个有钱人，好好的跑去坐了牢了，你这种多想不开。\"（2025年浙大演讲）",[47,162,163],{},[17,164,71,165,167,168,170],{},[20,166,32],{"href":31},"的风险不该比开车出门大，",[20,169,5],{"href":22},"的风险不会比去赌场小。\"",[13,172,173],{"id":173},"实战案例",[63,175,176],{"id":176},"段永平自己的投机经历",[47,178,179],{},[17,180,71,181,183,184,186,187,189,190,192],{},[25,182,57],{},"有",[20,185,5],{"href":22},"过的，不是没有的，",[20,188,5],{"href":22},"是好玩，投资是赚钱的，所以是两回事，我现在也会",[20,191,5],{"href":22},"的，但是金额比较少，全力以赴押上去的就会非常的小心。\"（2006年网易证券对话）",[63,194,196],{"id":195},"做空百度最差的投机","做空百度：最差的投机",[47,198,199],{},[17,200,201,202,204],{},"\"不过，这其实不算我最差的投资，因为这根本就是彻头彻尾的",[20,203,5],{"href":22},"。以后不会再有这种例子了。\"（2010-03-07）",[17,206,207,208,210],{},"段永平做空百度亏了1.5-2亿美元，这是在",[25,209,57],{},"告诫他不要做空之后犯的错误。",[63,212,213],{"id":213},"买option是投机",[47,215,216],{},[17,217,218,219,223,224,228,229,231],{},"\"卖option其实不会有短期赚大钱的机会，但是实实在在产生净",[20,220,222],{"href":221},"\u002Fdao\u002Fxianjinliu","现金流","的办法，在懂的",[20,225,227],{"href":226},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjibenmian","基本面","的前提下长期而言是有机会获得高于平均市场回报的回报的。买option则是",[20,230,5],{"href":22},"，常做铁亏。\"（2011-07-16）",[63,233,234],{"id":234},"止盈止亏是投机的概念",[47,236,237],{},[17,238,239,240,242],{},"\"是的，止盈止亏都是",[20,241,5],{"href":22},"的概念。\"（2025-12-01）",[13,244,245],{"id":245},"常见误解",[63,247,249],{"id":248},"误解一短线就一定是投机","误解一：短线就一定是投机",[17,251,252,253,255],{},"段永平区分的标准不是时间长短，而是是否在买\"未来",[20,254,222],{"href":221},"\"。",[47,257,258],{},[17,259,260,261,263,264,266],{},"\"做空是比较",[20,262,5],{"href":22},"的。\"（2006年网易证券对话）——这里短不是因为时间短，而是因为做空不是在买未来",[20,265,222],{"href":221},"。",[63,268,270],{"id":269},"误解二投机总是亏钱","误解二：投机总是亏钱",[47,272,273],{},[17,274,71,275,277,278,280],{},[20,276,5],{"href":22},"是好玩，投资是赚钱的。\"——段永平承认",[20,279,5],{"href":22},"有时能赚钱，但长期来看不如投资。",[63,282,284],{"id":283},"误解三可以从投机转向投资","误解三：可以从投机转向投资",[47,286,287],{},[17,288,289,290,292,293,295,296,298],{},"\"如果股民意识到",[20,291,5],{"href":22},"无法赚钱，如果想从",[20,294,5],{"href":22},"转向投资，有什么样的心态可以从",[20,297,5],{"href":22},"转向投资？\"",[47,300,301],{},[17,302,303,304,306,307,309],{},"\"我想一、二句话是说不清楚的，起码要看整套",[25,305,57],{},"的书。这么多年，我碰到了很多的人，都看了",[25,308,57],{},"的书，但是懂了吗？\"（2006年网易证券对话）",[17,311,312,314],{},[25,313,27],{},"认为以自己10年投资的经历来看，\"还真没有见过谁真的变了\"（2011-12-31）。",[13,316,317],{"id":317},"思想演变",[17,319,320,323,324,326,327,331],{},[25,321,322],{},"1999年（经营阶段）","：在企业经营中就已经树立了反",[20,325,5],{"href":22},"的价值观——\"比如，在企业中，经常有各种各样的诱惑围绕着你，面对这些诱惑就需要",[20,328,330],{"href":329},"\u002Fdao\u002Fpingchangxin","平常心","。\"（1999年人大演讲）",[17,333,334,337,338,266],{},[25,335,336],{},"2006年（区分投资与投机）","：首次在投资语境中系统区分投资与",[20,339,5],{"href":22},[17,341,342,345],{},[25,343,344],{},"2007-2010年（痛定思痛）","：做空百度的惨痛教训让他更加坚定\"不做空、不借钱、不做不懂的东西\"。",[17,347,348,351,352,354,355,357],{},[25,349,350],{},"2025年","：在浙大演讲和方三文对话中，用更加通俗直白的语言阐述",[20,353,5],{"href":22},"的危害，并提出\"止盈止亏都是",[20,356,5],{"href":22},"的概念\"这一清晰论断。",[13,359,360],{"id":360},"原话引用",[47,362,363],{},[17,364,365,366,45],{},"\"股票市场绝大多数人是在",[20,367,5],{"href":22},[47,369,370],{},[17,371,372,373,266,375,74],{},"\"做投资和做企业本身没有本质的差异……你要是不会做，往往就变成了",[20,374,5],{"href":22},[20,376,5],{"href":22},[47,378,379],{},[17,380,71,381,111,383,115],{},[20,382,5],{"href":22},[25,384,114],{},[47,386,387],{},[17,388,120,389,391],{},[20,390,5],{"href":22},"的心，所以才需要信仰。\"",[47,393,394],{},[17,395,145,396,148],{},[20,397,5],{"href":22},[47,399,400],{},[17,401,71,402,167,404,170],{},[20,403,32],{"href":31},[20,405,5],{"href":22},[47,407,408],{},[17,409,410,411,413,414,416,417,419],{},"\"很多人说，",[20,412,32],{"href":31},"很难。但",[20,415,5],{"href":22},"更难！",[20,418,5],{"href":22},"百分之八九十的散户都是亏钱的，牛市、熊市都亏。\"（2025年）",[47,421,422],{},[17,423,239,424,242],{},[20,425,5],{"href":22},[47,427,428],{},[17,429,430,431,433],{},"\"不打算拿十年的心态会让你很容易做一个",[20,432,5],{"href":22},"的决定。\"（2026-01-23）",{"title":435,"searchDepth":436,"depth":436,"links":437},"",2,[438,439,446,452,457,458],{"id":15,"depth":436,"text":15},{"id":61,"depth":436,"text":61,"children":440},[441,443,444,445],{"id":65,"depth":442,"text":66},3,{"id":102,"depth":442,"text":103},{"id":131,"depth":442,"text":132},{"id":151,"depth":442,"text":152},{"id":173,"depth":436,"text":173,"children":447},[448,449,450,451],{"id":176,"depth":442,"text":176},{"id":195,"depth":442,"text":196},{"id":213,"depth":442,"text":213},{"id":234,"depth":442,"text":234},{"id":245,"depth":436,"text":245,"children":453},[454,455,456],{"id":248,"depth":442,"text":249},{"id":269,"depth":442,"text":270},{"id":283,"depth":442,"text":284},{"id":317,"depth":436,"text":317},{"id":360,"depth":436,"text":360},"投资理念","投机在段永平的框架中是与价值投资对立的概念。他在1999年做客人民大学时就已经在经营理念中体现了反投机的思想——强调\"播种、耕种，然后才收获\"，反对\"投入2000万短时间挣两亿\"的诱惑。","md",{},true,18,{"title":5,"description":460},"段永平谈投机：投机在段永平的框架中是与价值投资对立的概念。他在1999年做客人民大学时就已经在经营理念中体现了反投机的思想——强调\"播种、耕种，然后才收获\"，反对\"投入2000万短时间挣两亿\"的诱惑。","投机｜大道总纲","touji","dao\u002Ftouji","fa9Rt5rKROh3BGsxWEMn5EWiSuvpyl2W5WS4acA41Lc",1777884960164]