[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":429},["ShallowReactive",2],{"dao-zhexian":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":417,"description":418,"extension":419,"meta":420,"navigation":421,"order":422,"path":22,"seo":423,"seoDescription":424,"seoTitle":425,"slug":426,"stem":427,"__hash__":428},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fzhexian.md","折现",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":394},"minimark",[9,12,16,52,63,68,71,76,86,101,105,121,135,146,150,163,171,174,181,196,203,221,226,231,234,238,246,250,258,269,273,278,281,290,301,316,319,327,336,344,354,368,378],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":5},[13,14,15],"h2",{"id":15},"定义与起源",[17,18,19,23,24,28,29,33,34,36,38,39,42,43,46,47,51],"p",{},[20,21,5],"a",{"href":22},"\u002Fdao\u002Fzhexian","是",[25,26,27],"strong",{},"段永平","投资体系中与",[20,30,32],{"href":31},"\u002Fdao\u002Fxianjinliu","现金流","密不可分的核心概念。\"未来",[20,35,32],{"href":31},[20,37,5],{"href":22},"\"是他对投资的一句话定义。这一概念来自",[25,40,41],{},"巴菲特","和",[25,44,45],{},"格雷厄姆","的",[20,48,50],{"href":49},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjiazhitouzi","价值投资","理论。",[53,54,55],"blockquote",{},[17,56,57,58,60,62],{},"\"买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来",[20,59,32],{"href":31},[20,61,5],{"href":22},"。\"",[17,64,65,67],{},[25,66,27],{},"最早在2006年网易证券对话中提及这一概念：\"你只要知道一个公司，他在做的生意现在一年能赚多少钱，如果利率是5%的话，那我至少要用20倍的价钱来买他，对不对？那么我还要考虑他20年以后赚的钱是多还是少，以此来推算一下就好了。\"（2006年）",[13,69,70],{"id":70},"核心要义",[72,73,75],"h3",{"id":74},"_1-折现是思维方式不是公式","1. 折现是思维方式，不是公式",[53,77,78],{},[17,79,80,81,83,85],{},"\"所谓未来",[20,82,32],{"href":31},[20,84,5],{"href":22},"只是个思维方式，千万不要去套公式，因为没人可以真的确定公式中的变量，所有假设可能都是不靠谱的。\"",[53,87,88],{},[17,89,90,91,93,95,96,100],{},"\"未来",[20,92,32],{"href":31},[20,94,5],{"href":22},"只是一种思维方式，只有在自己",[20,97,99],{"href":98},"\u002Fdao\u002Fnengliquan","能力圈","范围内的公司，投资人才能毛估估看明白。没人真用公式的，至少胜者都是不用公式的。\"",[72,102,104],{"id":103},"_2-折现率就是个人的机会成本","2. 折现率就是个人的机会成本",[53,106,107],{},[17,108,109,110,112,113,117,118,120],{},"\"",[20,111,5],{"href":22},"率实际上是相对于投资人的",[20,114,116],{"href":115},"\u002Fdao\u002Fjihuichengben","机会成本","而言的。最低的",[20,119,116],{"href":115},"就是无风险回报率，比如美国国债的利率。\"",[53,122,123],{},[17,124,125,126,128,129,131,132,134],{},"\"我总觉得每个人给出的'",[20,127,5],{"href":22},"率'应该是每个人自己的（长期）最大",[20,130,116],{"href":115},"。对很多不懂投资的人们而言，最合适的",[20,133,116],{"href":115},"应该是无风险利率。\"（2025-10-05）",[53,136,137],{},[17,138,139,140,142,143,145],{},"\"我觉得应该按自己的",[20,141,116],{"href":115},"算。大部分人的",[20,144,116],{"href":115},"其实就是银行利息或者是国债，生意人和投资人会不一样（赚的更多或者更少）。\"（2025-09-25）",[72,147,149],{"id":148},"_3-公司价值取决于生命周期内的总盈利折现","3. 公司价值取决于生命周期内的总盈利折现",[53,151,152],{},[17,153,154,155,46,157,159,160,162],{},"\"公司的内在价值就是其未来自由",[20,156,32],{"href":31},[20,158,5],{"href":22},"，所谓现在公司的净值应该是被包括在未来",[20,161,32],{"href":31},"里面的。\"",[53,164,165],{},[17,166,167,168,170],{},"\"公司价值取决于公司生命周期里的总盈利的",[20,169,5],{"href":22},"。好公司生命力强，一般会活得好且长。股市长期来说就是称重器，早晚会体现公司价值的。\"",[13,172,173],{"id":173},"实战案例",[72,175,177,180],{"id":176},"苹果的估值思路",[25,178,179],{},"苹果","的估值思路",[17,182,183,184,186,187,189,190,192,193,195],{},"2011年买入时：\"",[25,185,179],{},"大概3000亿市值，手里有1000亿净现金，那时候利润大概不到200亿。以我对",[25,188,179],{},"的理解，我认为",[25,191,179],{},"未来5年左右赢利大概率会涨很多，所以我就猜个500亿。所以当时想的东西非常简单，用2000亿\"去衡量。这就是\"毛估估\"的",[20,194,5],{"href":22},"思维。",[72,197,199,202],{"id":198},"茅台的折现计算",[25,200,201],{},"茅台","的折现计算",[17,204,205,206,208,209,211,212,214,215,217,218,220],{},"2025年，段永平以",[25,207,201],{},"为例展示了如何使用公式辅助思考：\"头10年0增长",[20,210,5],{"href":22},"后总额7949，后10年10%利润增长",[20,213,5],{"href":22},"后总额12523\"——但他强调这只是辅助思考的工具。\"大家可以根据自己对",[25,216,201],{},"生意的理解带入任意数字……你自己选个自己认为有道理的保守的结果大概就很容易知道你要不要投这家公司了，当然是比较完自己的",[20,219,116],{"href":115},"之后。\"（2025-09-26）",[72,222,224],{"id":223},"网易",[25,225,223],{},[53,227,228],{},[17,229,230],{},"\"你只要知道一个公司，他在做的生意现在一年能赚多少钱，如果利率是5%的话，那我至少要用20倍的价钱来买他……我是这样来简单判断公司价值的。\"（2006年网易证券对话）",[13,232,233],{"id":233},"常见误解",[72,235,237],{"id":236},"误解一可以精确计算","误解一：可以精确计算",[53,239,240],{},[17,241,242,243,245],{},"\"一般来讲，任何人只要试图用未来",[20,244,32],{"href":31},"的计算公式去计算公司的内在价值时，就说明其实他还不太懂自己在干什么。\"",[72,247,249],{"id":248},"误解二折现率是客观固定的","误解二：折现率是客观固定的",[17,251,252,254,255,257],{},[20,253,5],{"href":22},"率不是一个客观的固定数字，而是因人而异——取决于每个投资者的",[20,256,116],{"href":115},"。",[53,259,260],{},[17,261,262,263,265,266,268],{},"\"企业价值本身确实和每个人的",[20,264,116],{"href":115},"没有直接关系，但是不是决定投某家公司是和自己的",[20,267,116],{"href":115},"直接相关的。\"（2025年）",[72,270,272],{"id":271},"误解三只需要看3-5年","误解三：只需要看3-5年",[53,274,275],{},[17,276,277],{},"\"未来指的是公司的整个生命周期，不是3年，也不是5年。\"",[13,279,280],{"id":280},"思想演变",[17,282,283,286,287,289],{},[25,284,285],{},"早期（2006年）","：在网易证券对话中首次公开谈论",[20,288,5],{"href":22},"，用比较直观的\"20倍价钱\"来解释。",[17,291,292,295,296,298,300],{},[25,293,294],{},"中期（2010-2015年）","：在雪球上系统阐述\"未来",[20,297,32],{"href":31},[20,299,5],{"href":22},"是思维方式而非公式\"。强调\"毛估估\"的重要性。",[17,302,303,306,307,309,310,312,313,315],{},[25,304,305],{},"近期（2025年）","：开始更多地用具体数字和公式来辅助解释（如",[25,308,201],{},"的折现计算示例），但仍然反复强调这只是帮助理解的工具。同时更加明确地将",[20,311,5],{"href":22},"率与个人",[20,314,116],{"href":115},"挂钩。",[13,317,318],{"id":318},"原话引用",[53,320,321],{},[17,322,57,323,325,62],{},[20,324,32],{"href":31},[20,326,5],{"href":22},[53,328,329],{},[17,330,331,332,46,334,62],{},"\"公司价值是什么?就是公司未来",[20,333,32],{"href":31},[20,335,5],{"href":22},[53,337,338],{},[17,339,80,340,342,85],{},[20,341,32],{"href":31},[20,343,5],{"href":22},[53,345,346],{},[17,347,109,348,112,350,117,352,120],{},[20,349,5],{"href":22},[20,351,116],{"href":115},[20,353,116],{"href":115},[53,355,356],{},[17,357,358,359,361,362,364,365,367],{},"\"我个人以为",[20,360,50],{"href":49},"的'术'就是如何研究企业未来",[20,363,32],{"href":31},"（",[20,366,5],{"href":22},"）的问题。\"（2011-01-05）",[53,369,370],{},[17,371,372,373,375,377],{},"\"我理解的投资归纳起来就是:买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买公司的未来",[20,374,32],{"href":31},[20,376,5],{"href":22},"，句号!\"",[53,379,380],{},[17,381,382,383,385,386,388,389,391,393],{},"\"简单不?对，简单但绝不容易!不懂企业的人绝对没办法看懂未来",[20,384,32],{"href":31},"。所谓懂的人往往也只能看懂自己",[20,387,99],{"href":98},"内的很少很少企业的未来",[20,390,32],{"href":31},[20,392,5],{"href":22},"，而且还一定是毛估估滴。\"",{"title":395,"searchDepth":396,"depth":396,"links":397},"",2,[398,399,405,410,415,416],{"id":15,"depth":396,"text":15},{"id":70,"depth":396,"text":70,"children":400},[401,403,404],{"id":74,"depth":402,"text":75},3,{"id":103,"depth":402,"text":104},{"id":148,"depth":402,"text":149},{"id":173,"depth":396,"text":173,"children":406},[407,408,409],{"id":176,"depth":402,"text":176},{"id":198,"depth":402,"text":198},{"id":223,"depth":402,"text":223},{"id":233,"depth":396,"text":233,"children":411},[412,413,414],{"id":236,"depth":402,"text":237},{"id":248,"depth":402,"text":249},{"id":271,"depth":402,"text":272},{"id":280,"depth":396,"text":280},{"id":318,"depth":396,"text":318},"投资理念","折现是段永平投资体系中与现金流密不可分的核心概念。\"未来现金流折现\"是他对投资的一句话定义。这一概念来自巴菲特和格雷厄姆的价值投资理论。","md",{},true,13,{"title":5,"description":418},"段永平谈折现：折现是段永平投资体系中与现金流密不可分的核心概念。\"未来现金流折现\"是他对投资的一句话定义。这一概念来自巴菲特和格雷厄姆的价值投资理论。","折现｜大道总纲","zhexian","dao\u002Fzhexian","SZMAcLk0I72vZuyOT92Mcc3oKyNnKgn70na0uI2fdZA",1777884960050]