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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":359,"body":818,"category":241,"chapterOrder":9,"date":9,"description":361,"editor":1875,"extension":1876,"meta":1877,"navigation":1878,"order":362,"path":1879,"publishedAt":9,"seo":1880,"seoDescription":361,"seoTitle":1881,"slug":360,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":848,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":1882,"sourceStatus":1883,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":1884,"stem":1885,"summary":361,"tags":9,"type":9,"updatedAt":1886,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"__hash__":1887,"_collection":1888},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fspeeches\u002Fduanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":1865},"minimark",[821,825,844,850,853,861,864,884,902,917,925,937,948,960,968,976,981,992,1004,1010,1036,1041,1051,1062,1071,1074,1077,1102,1122,1130,1135,1153,1156,1164,1177,1220,1232,1240,1246,1255,1261,1267,1270,1285,1288,1293,1299,1305,1308,1311,1316,1341,1350,1353,1367,1387,1390,1394,1409,1412,1417,1420,1435,1447,1470,1479,1510,1514,1520,1551,1561,1575,1592,1595,1603,1609,1615,1623,1626,1649,1652,1663,1684,1703,1709,1712,1727,1742,1745,1751,1756,1762,1765,1773,1776,1791,1799,1818,1844],[822,823,824],"h3",{"id":824},"生意模式",[826,827,828,829,833,834,837,838,840,841,843],"p",{},"网友：你说你在 2011 年一月想明白了",[830,831,832],"strong",{},"苹果","，最重要的是想通了没有",[830,835,836],{},"乔布斯","的",[830,839,832],{},"到底是什么。能分享一下吗？因为我想了很长时间都没想通。",[830,842,832],{},"难道不是“冲浪型”企业吗？他们如何能保证时刻停留在浪尖上？",[826,845,846,849],{},[830,847,848],{},"段永平","：苹果已经有了很好的生意模式！为什么是很好的生意模式这行里的人都知道。（2012-01-20）",[826,851,852],{},"01.博文：one apple a day keeps the doctor away（2011-01-22）",[826,854,855,857,858,860],{},[830,856,848],{},"：说说我喜欢",[830,859,832],{},"的一些理由。这不是论文，想到就说，没有重点和先后",[826,862,863],{},"秩序。",[826,865,866,832,881],{},[830,867,868,869,871,872,876,877,880],{},"1.",[830,870,832],{},"的产品确实把",[873,874,156],"a",{"href":875},"\u002Fyonghutiyan","或",[873,878,53],{"href":879},"\u002Fxiaofeizhedaoxiang","做到极致了，对手在相当长的时间里难以超越甚至接近（对喜欢",[830,882,883],{},"的用户而言）。",[826,885,886,824,895],{},[830,887,888,889,837,891,894],{},"2.",[830,890,832],{},[873,892,166],{"href":893},"\u002Fpingtai","建立起来了，或者说",[830,896,897,898,901],{},"或者说",[873,899,74],{"href":900},"\u002Fhuchenghe","已经形成了（光软件一年都几十亿的收入了）。",[826,903,904,913,914],{},[830,905,906,907,909,912],{},"3.",[830,908,832],{},[873,910,176],{"href":911},"\u002Fdanyichanpin","的模式实际上是我们这个行业里的最高境界，以前我大概只见到","任天堂",[830,915,916],{},"做到过（sony 的游戏产品类似）。",[826,918,919,924],{},[830,920,921,923],{},[873,922,176],{"href":911},"的模式有非常多的好处","：",[826,926,927,930,931],{},[830,928,929],{},"a.可以集中人力物力将产品做得更好。比较一下 iphone 系列和","诺基亚",[830,932,933,934,936],{},"系列（今 年要推出 40 个品种）。",[830,935,832],{},"产品的单位开发成本是非常低的，但单个产品的开发费却是最高的。",[826,938,939,832,945],{},[830,940,941,942,944],{},"b.材料成本低且质量好，大规模带来的效益。",[830,943,832],{},"的成本控制也是做到极致的， 同样功能的硬件恐怕没人能达到",[830,946,947],{},"的成本。",[826,949,950,913,957],{},[830,951,952,953,956],{},"c.",[873,954,161],{"href":955},"\u002Fqudao","成本低。呵呵，不是同行的不一定能明白这话到底有什么分量（同行也未 必明白)，我是 20 年前从",[830,958,959],{},"那里学会的。那时很多做游戏机的都喜欢做很多 品种，最后下场都不太好。",[826,961,962],{},[830,963,964,965,967],{},"4.",[830,966,832],{},"的营销也是做到极致了，连广告费都比同行低很多，卖的价钱却往往很好。",[826,969,970],{},[830,971,972,973,975],{},"5.",[830,974,832],{},"的产品处在一个巨大并还有巨大成长的市场里。",[826,977,978],{},[830,979,980],{},"a. 智能手机市场有多大？你懂的！",[826,982,983,832,986],{},[830,984,985],{},"b. pad 市场有多大？你也会懂的。 总而言之，我认为",[830,987,988,989,991],{},"现在其实还处在其成长的早期，应该还有很大的空间。 扣掉现金的话，",[830,990,832],{},"的今年的未来 pe 只有 12-13 倍啊，明年可能要到 10 以下了。",[826,993,994,995,997,998,1000,1001,1003],{},"当然，以上我说的这些点中的任何一点的改变都可能或多或少地改变",[830,996,832],{},"，如果 有",[830,999,832],{},"的股票的话，就要留心这些变化了。 我认为 Jobs 如果真请长假的话，在相当长的时间里对",[830,1002,832],{},"的业务不会有大影响。 （2011-01-22）",[826,1005,1006,1007,1009],{},"网友：想了解下段总关于买",[830,1008,832],{},"的思路，回头看了好多博文和评论都没找到。小 心翼翼问一下：不知道是我错过了，还是段总没说过，主要是学习为主，没有跟风的意思。因为我是一直通过琢磨段总的以前选股案例来学习和提高的。",[826,1011,1012,1014,1015,1017,1018,1020,1021,1024,1025,1028,1029,1031,1032,1035],{},[830,1013,848],{},"：因为我认为",[830,1016,832],{},"依然是低 pe 同时高增长的公司。差别在有多少人会认为",[830,1019,832],{},"还会在相当长的时间增长呢？显然",[830,1022,1023],{},"巴菲特","不会这么认为，就像我老是觉得 人们就快要不喝可乐一样（但",[830,1026,1027],{},"可口可乐","的营销是绝对强的，几乎任何地方都能找 到",[830,1030,1027],{},"）。（2011-04-07） 网友：",[830,1033,1034],{},"OPPO"," 目标客户非常明确。",[826,1037,1038,1040],{},[830,1039,848],{},"：OPPO 和 APPLE 其实有很多相同的基因，这也是我最后能看懂APPLE 的 原因之一。（2011-08-07）",[826,1042,1043,1044,1047,1048,1050],{},"网友：当年的",[830,1045,1046],{},"小霸王","学习机也差不多是",[873,1049,176],{"href":911},"模式，记得当时单一款 486B 卖得很好，而且在旺季来临前就备足（生产）了货源。",[826,1052,1053,1055,1056,1058,1059,1061],{},[830,1054,848],{},"：呵呵，这是我能看懂",[830,1057,832],{},"的重要原因之一，没有那段经历，不一定会知道",[830,1060,832],{},"有多厉害。（2012-02-01）",[826,1063,1064,1066,1067,1070],{},[830,1065,848],{},"：本人喜欢苹果生意模式的很重要的一点来自于自己在消费电子 20 多年的体验，",[830,1068,1069],{},"苹果是我一直梦寐以求但似乎难以达到的生意模式","。（2013-01-22）",[822,1072,1073],{"id":1073},"估值",[826,1075,1076],{},"网友：昨天向您请教怎么投资股票，您说要懂公司。请问“懂”字怎么理解呢？一个普通人的，很平凡的人，一个没有技巧的人从哪些方面去“懂”呢？",[826,1078,1079,1081,1082,1085,1086,1088,1089,1091,1092,1095,1096,1098,1099,1101],{},[830,1080,848],{},"：举个所谓懂的例子：",[830,1083,1084],{},"比如","苹果，我在 2011 年买",[830,1087,832],{},"的时候，",[830,1090,832],{},"大概3000 亿市值（当时股价 310\u002F7=44），手里有 1000 亿",[873,1093,79],{"href":1094},"\u002Fjingxianjin","，那时候利润大概不到 200 亿。以我对",[830,1097,832],{},"的理解，我认为",[830,1100,832],{},"未来 5 年左右赢利大概率会涨很多，所以我就猜个 500 亿（去年 595 亿）。所以当时想的东西非常简单，用 2000 亿",[826,1103,1104,1107,1108,1110,1111,1114,1115,1118,1119,1121],{},[830,1105,1106],{},"左右市值买个目前赚接近 200 亿\u002F年，未来 5 左右会赚到 500 亿\u002F年或以上的公司（而且还会往后继续很好）","。如果有这个结论，买",[830,1109,832],{},"不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的",[873,1112,115],{"href":1113},"\u002Fjihuichengben","就可以决定了。",[830,1116,1117],{},"但得到这个结论非常不容易，对我","来说至少 20 年功夫吧。能得到这个结论，就叫懂了。不懂则千万千万别碰，我有个球友 320\u002F7=46 买了一些，结果一个回调，310\u002F7 就卖了（现在",[830,1120,832],{},"加上分红 可能早就超过 200 了），还跟我讲为什么要卖的道理，从此我不再跟他说投资了。",[822,1123,1125,1126,1129],{"id":1124},"谈企业文化及乔布斯离世","谈",[873,1127,135],{"href":1128},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","及乔布斯离世",[826,1131,1132],{},[830,1133,1134],{},"伟大企业---“利润之上的追求”",[826,1136,1137,1139,1140,1142,1143,1145,1146,832,1149,1152],{},[830,1138,848],{},"：我曾经一直认为 jobs 是个报时人，最近突然觉得只有 jobs 的",[830,1141,832],{},"是不可能成为今天这个样子的。今天的",[830,1144,832],{},"，jobs 的作用已经不是那么大了。",[830,1147,1148],{},"就算 jobs 不打算再回来，今天的",[830,1150,1151],{},"也会靠惯性向前的。还有就是，当年的","苹果董事会为什么会在赶走 jobs 后又能请他回来呢？这可不是容易做到的事。",[826,1154,1155],{},"（2011-01-23）",[826,1157,1158,1160,1161,1163],{},[830,1159,848],{},"：这是《",[830,1162,836],{},"传》最后一章“遗产：无比辉煌的创新天堂”中的一段自述，我反复读了很多遍，字里行间跃然纸上的是一个虽有阴暗面却始终闪亮的灵魂。",[826,1165,1166,1167,832,1173,1176],{},"吉姆.柯林斯在《基业长青》中曾经总结过",[830,1168,1169,1170,1172],{},"伟大企业的其中一项特质是“利润之 上的追求”，",[830,1171,836],{},"和他的",[830,1174,1175],{},"给予了这项特质以最完美的诠释","。（2014-02-01）",[826,1178,1179,1180,1182,1183,1185,1186,1189,1190,1192,1193,1195,1196,1198,1199,1201,1202,1204,1205,1207,1208,1210,1211,1213,1214,836,1217,1219],{},"网友：段总对",[830,1181,832],{},"的顿悟，说明了经历在对公司理解上会变成财富，哈哈。段总无论是早年的",[830,1184,1046],{},"时期，还是",[830,1187,1188],{},"步步高","时期，或者最近的 ",[830,1191,1034],{}," 手机时期，其实从事的工作和",[830,1194,832],{},"公司没有本质的区别，都是消费类电子，都是了解消费者需求做精品，对产品的追求和理解是一致的，所以段总很快就能看到",[830,1197,832],{},"的“厉害”之处，这个和大部分投资人通过财报、预测所理解的公司前景是不太一样的。所以段总说的买股票就是买公司，对于公司理解的“度”上，把自己放到经营者的位置去思考，有些时候不得不说是需要一些“机缘”的。看段总",[830,1200,832],{},"的仓位貌似提高不少，是因为最近一段时间看",[830,1203,832],{},"看得更加明白的原因？看《",[830,1206,836],{},"传》最大的体会，",[830,1209,836],{},"是一个非常厉害的产品经理，除了做出优秀的产品，还搭建了优秀的",[873,1212,166],{"href":893},"，",[830,1215,1216],{},"失去",[830,1218,837],{},"苹果，在单品的设计能力和惊艳程度上是否会衰退，",[826,1221,1222,1223,1225,1226,1228,1229,1231],{},"我不是很能理解？段总对于",[830,1224,832],{},"的判断，是因为",[830,1227,836],{},"所搭建产品",[873,1230,166],{"href":893},"优异的巨大惯性延续，还是其他？",[826,1233,1234,1236,1237,1239],{},[830,1235,848],{},"：绝大多数是去年初和中间有个时期买的，一月 21 号 option 到期后出来不少钱（主要是 put 卖出过期了），本来想买 bac 的，结果近期 bac 涨了很多，就都放 aapl 了。在没有其他目标的前提下，今天的",[830,1238,832],{},"依然便宜，但没以前便宜了。",[826,1241,1242,1245],{},[830,1243,1244],{},"有些东西进步到一定程度后其实后面的变化就不大了","，比如汽车发动机 30-40年代和现在其实没本质差别。有些国家（虽然我们很多人很看不上）40 年代就能造航空母舰，我们现在依然不行，说明由于某些原因，时间有时候帮不上大忙。",[826,1247,1248,1254],{},[830,1249,1250,1251,1253],{},"苹果最厉害的是现在这个",[873,1252,166],{"href":893},"以及生意模式","，以我的水平我看不出谁能打破他。",[826,1256,1257,1258,1260],{},"当然有很多以为水平比我高的人非说别人可以，当然也有自己说自己可以打败",[830,1259,832],{},"的，你看看他们像吗？",[826,1262,1263,1264,1266],{},"也许，能打败",[830,1265,832],{},"的人快出生了，也许正在某个地方徘徊，但怎么看都不是现在 大家知道的这些，这是个大家可以看很多年的故事。（2012-01-29）",[822,1268,1269],{"id":1269},"关于安卓威胁的看法",[826,1271,1272,1273,1275,1276,1278,1279,1281,1282,1284],{},"02.网友：android（安卓）手机会是",[830,1274,832],{},"的一个比较大的威胁，现在的 android的手机已经不比",[830,1277,832],{},"的差多少了。",[830,1280,832],{},"的强大在于有一个统一的",[873,1283,166],{"href":893},"，这是",[826,1286,1287],{},"android 所没有的。",[826,1289,1290,1292],{},[830,1291,848],{},"：说明你还是不明白谁是谁的威胁。（2012-01-25）",[826,1294,1295,1296,1298],{},"网友 A：这一点不太明白，我对于",[830,1297,832],{},"最担心的就是安卓的竞争。虽然进入 IOS",[826,1300,1301,1302,1304],{},"（",[830,1303,832],{},"系统）系统的用户不太关心安卓的变化。但是安卓的进步对于新进入 IOS",[826,1306,1307],{},"的用户数量有很大影响，并且安卓进步很快，那么口碑会好，而口碑对于新用户",[826,1309,1310],{},"甚至老用户，影响会很大，是这样吗？",[826,1312,1313,1315],{},[830,1314,848],{},"：再过几年你就明白了。",[826,1317,1318,1319,1322,1323,1325,1326,1328,1329,1331,1332,1334,1335,1337,1338,1340],{},"网友 H：",[830,1320,1321],{},"谷歌","的安卓和",[830,1324,832],{}," IPHONE 的竞争关系就像大众和宝马奔驰的竞争一样，虽然都是做手机，用户群不一样。用了",[830,1327,832],{},"的东西，再用安卓的，感觉就是糙，细节很粗糙。GOOGLE（",[830,1330,1321],{},"）发布了 Chrome 浏览器的移动版本，竟然率先在",[830,1333,832],{},"的平板 IPAD 和手机 IPHONE 上发布，安卓",[873,1336,166],{"href":893},"上竟然没有。这事挺有意思的，难道 GOOGLE 的人也知道哪个",[873,1339,166],{"href":893},"的用户价值更大？",[826,1342,1343,1345,1346,1349],{},[830,1344,848],{},"：苹果",[830,1347,1348],{},"倒是像卖车的，一年出一款。3 星像","诺基亚，结局可能也像，不信过 10-15 年再看。",[826,1351,1352],{},"网友 X：",[826,1354,1355,1356,1359,1360,1363,1364,1366],{},"1、",[830,1357,1358],{},"三星","、",[830,1361,1362],{},"HTC"," 一直搞机海战术，其实大部分厂商都是这招，",[830,1365,832],{},"出来后，这招不灵了。htc 今年出 one 系列，说不玩换壳了，真能转性么？",[826,1368,1369,1370,1372,1373,1375,1376,1379,1380,1383,1384,1386],{},"2、",[830,1371,832],{},"真是独步江湖了。安卓阵营跟",[830,1374,832],{},"的差距，不是简单的机子外表问题，是整个",[873,1377,70],{"href":1378},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","和",[873,1381,171],{"href":1382},"\u002Fshengtaixitong","的问题。如果专注研发 rom，把消费者体验提升的有戏么？魅族小米都是刷 rom 起家，oppo 的 rom 和 ui 也有独到之处，一些细节让人觉得很贴心，还有老罗也说要专注研究 rom，当然 rom 毕竟要受制于 google（",[830,1385,1321],{},"）的进展。无解？",[826,1388,1389],{},"3、我发现国内很多用 iphone 的只是觉得很漂亮很炫或者纯粹是炫耀性消费，iphone 的威力他们恐怕一小半都没用到。特别是女孩子，没几个用同步功能、装备好的应用，好多只是玩玩别人帮忙装上的游戏。这类“傻瓜式”很多人在抢吧，像当年网络爆发增长时的装机系统导航网页等。",[826,1391,1392,924],{},[830,1393,848],{},[1395,1396,1397,1401],"ol",{},[1398,1399,1400],"li",{},"人大概是不会变的。",[1398,1402,1403,1405,1406,1408],{},[830,1404,832],{},"以外的市场依然很大，而且上升空间也很大。专注于",[873,1407,156],{"href":875},"的企业总",[826,1410,1411],{},"是会走得远一些的。",[1395,1413,1414],{},[1398,1415,1416],{},"我也发现很多人还没有发现 iphone 的很多好处就已经很喜欢 iphone 了，所",[826,1418,1419],{},"以觉得 iphone 的潜力还很大。",[826,1421,1422,1423,1425,1426,1428,1429,1431,1432,1434],{},"网友 C：这么久了看了你的评论才有一点明白",[830,1424,832],{},"； “即使其他公司生产出了在技术上比",[830,1427,832],{},"产品还要先进一些的产品，在惯性思维上人们也未必认可，再说了，",[830,1430,832],{},"产品目前达到的技术高度也使其他公司很难造出比",[830,1433,832],{},"产品有显著性先进差异的产品了，”",[826,1436,1437,1438,1441,1442,837,1444,1446],{},"是否像",[830,1439,1440],{},"微软","当初的 286、386、奔一、奔二；，如今的双核等？今天没有",[830,1443,836],{},[830,1445,832],{},"依然在“小步快跑”？",[826,1448,1449,1345,1451,930,1457,832,1460,832,1466,1469],{},[830,1450,848],{},[830,1452,1453,1454,1456],{},"厉害的不仅仅是硬件，这是所有其他竞争对手没辙的地方。",[830,1455,1358],{},"顶多不过是新的",[830,1458,1459],{},"而已，对",[830,1461,1462,1463,1465],{},"没有威胁。",[830,1464,832],{},"的 business model 实在是强大，其他的“对手”已经难以撼动",[830,1467,1468],{},"了。","（2012-02-05）",[826,1471,1472,1473,1475,1476,1478],{},"03.网友：段总怎么看 GOOGLE（",[830,1474,1321],{},"）呢？你说看不懂那个自动驾驶汽车。呵呵，确实有点偏的感觉。google 这两天发布好多新东东。1、那个眼镜也有点怪怪的，有点偏。2、google Nexus Q 有点意思哦，挺喜欢的，如果便宜点真想弄一个玩玩。3、 Nexus 7 不错，可惜没有后置摄像头，kindle fire 麻烦了。4、安卓4.1 也在进步，系统一直在完善啊，假以时日，能逼近 IOS（",[830,1477,832],{},"系统）么。",[826,1480,1481,1483,1484,1486,1487,1489,1490,832,1493,832,1496,832,1501,832,1506,1509],{},[830,1482,848],{},"：我一直喜欢 google，觉得 google 是好公司，但只是明白其部分的",[830,1485,824],{},"而已。所以前段时间把手里的一部分 google 换成",[830,1488,832],{},"了，当时差 90 几块哈。也许哪天我还会换回来，看谁涨（或掉哈）得快了。",[830,1491,1492],{},"至于会不会逼近 IOS 的问题，作为",[830,1494,1495],{},"的用户，我其实根本就不知道也不关心，除非哪天我自己觉得",[830,1497,837,1498,1500],{},[873,1499,156],{"href":875},"不好了。一旦进入",[830,1502,837,1503,1505],{},[873,1504,171],{"href":1382},"的用户实际上不太关心安卓的变化，所以我其实一直不认为安卓是在和",[830,1507,1508],{},"竞争。","（2012-06-28）",[822,1511,1513],{"id":1512},"关于安卓苹果体验差距的看法","关于安卓、苹果体验差距的看法",[826,1515,1516,1517,1519],{},"04.网友:请教一下为什么安卓的体验总是差强人意，",[830,1518,832],{},"都出来这么久了还是差距蛮大的，这是为什么？按道理来说有个样板在那里学应该很快能学到的，而且那么多人去研究。",[826,1521,1522,1524,1525,1527,1528,1530,1531,1533,1534,1537,1538,1540,1541,837,1543,1545,1546,1379,1548,1550],{},[830,1523,848],{},"：安卓本身占用资源大，比如如果都是两核或 4 核的表现就要差不少，加上大家看到的",[830,1526,832],{},"的东西是几十年积累下来的，安卓要全面达到恐怕不太可能。但是，安卓的表现其实已经很不错了，已经比当年用",[830,1529,930],{},"的智能机的感觉强了许多倍，某些使用方面和",[830,1532,832],{},"各有特色也是一定会有的，而且价钱还可以便宜很多。未来安卓手机之间的",[873,1535,146],{"href":1536},"\u002Fchayihua","会越来越小，",[830,1539,1358],{},"的价钱要挺住不容易。",[830,1542,832],{},[873,1544,171],{"href":1382},"会保住特别喜欢或习惯的用户，所以受安卓的影响不会像想象那么大。不过，有",[830,1547,832],{},[830,1549,1358],{},"在上面顶着价格，其他卖安卓智能机的企业应该还有一段不错的小日子。（2013-01-23）",[826,1552,1553,1554,1557,1558,1560],{},"05.网友：段总在 10 年初的时候提到过会谈一谈如何错过",[830,1555,1556],{},"腾讯","的，现在怎么看？我觉得他的模式比",[830,1559,832],{},"还牛，只是估值似乎永远也下不来。",[826,1562,1563,1565,1566,1568,1569,1571,1572,1574],{},[830,1564,848],{},"：让",[830,1567,1556],{},"上 6000 亿美金试试？",[830,1570,1556],{},"确实是不错的公司，但要成为",[830,1573,832],{},"还需要很多东西，包括大环境的变化。",[826,1576,1577,1578,924,1580,1582,1583,1585,1586,1588,1589,1591],{},"顺便说一下什么叫",[830,1579,824],{},[830,1581,824],{},"就是赚钱的模式，最后赚得越多的模式就应该越好。",[830,1584,832],{},"现在一年的利润比中国所有互联网公司（包括",[830,1587,1556],{},"）从开办以来赚得利润的总和都要多，你说",[830,1590,1556],{},"的模式更好的逻辑是啥？（2013-03-04）",[822,1593,1594],{"id":1594},"市场空间和企业份额判断",[826,1596,1597,1599,1600,1602],{},[830,1598,848],{},"：现在 apple id 大概两个多亿，去年的软收入已经有好像 120 亿了。估 计 10 年后 apple id 怎么着都有 15 到 20 亿了，10 年后光这块一年也得300-500 亿吧？这里面不知道有没有包括广告收入，但看过一个资料，说",[830,1601,832],{},"产品",[826,1604,1605,1606,1608],{},"的广告 流量的有效性是移动设备里最高的，大概是安卓的 3 倍左右，但没看到进一步的 详细东西。估计 10 年后 apple id 怎么着都有 15 到 20 亿了。",[830,1607,832],{},"未来会推什么 不是我能想出来的，但 itv 是个很靠谱的产品，只是不知道还要多久。iwatch 看起来也有点意思，不像是空穴来风。",[826,1610,1611,1612,1614],{},"网友：我还有一个问题，就是记得去年您提到",[830,1613,832],{}," iphone 的市场占有率,我想在估值的时候一定要一个大概能达到多大的市场份额吧？那要怎么样来评估呢？",[826,1616,1617,1619,1620,1622],{},[830,1618,848],{},"：我认为",[830,1621,832],{},"最后至少会有 20%+的市场份额，但超过 40%可能就有点不正常了。（2012-02-03）",[826,1624,1625],{},"06.网友：我倒是没想过您看不看得到这些（若您觉得我表达有误我这边先道个歉），这只是我自己想到的问题，提出来讨论而已，并无冒犯或挑战的意思。您的意思是不是说这些问题的确存在，但不构成影响",[826,1627,1628,1630,1631,1633,1634,1636,1637,1639,1640,832,1643,1645,1646,1648],{},[830,1629,848],{},"：其实我不知道你想问什么。你的问题是为什么 iphone 的用户忠诚度不是 100%么？或者因为 iphone 的忠诚度只有不到 90%，所以 iphone 就不行了么？或者身边有人把原来的 iphone 换成了",[830,1632,1358],{},"或别的大屏，所以以后还有没有人会再买 iphone 么？如果你不在乎我对",[830,1635,832],{},"的看法，为什么要问我关于",[830,1638,832],{},"的问题呢？顺便说一下，这个回答其实不是只给你的。",[830,1641,1642],{},"另外提醒一下，我们是卖安卓（大屏）手机的，我知道这个市场有多大。建议有些人想一下",[830,1644,837],{},"生意模式，如果觉得",[830,1647,1358],{},"的模式更好的话，这个博客其实不适合你们。（2013-02-16）",[826,1650,1651],{},"07.网友：在雪球网看到您说过“顺便说下，我们公司是卖 andriod 手机的，我想我真的能理解 andriod 的生命力在哪里。” 可否详细说说您对安卓生命力的理解？",[826,1653,1654,1656,1657,1659,1660,1662],{},[830,1655,848],{},"：移动市场这么大，没买",[830,1658,832],{},"的怎么着先的买个安卓吧？长期来讲，",[830,1661,832],{},"产品很难超过 30%的，余下 70%基本上就是安卓。未来 10 年移动设备至少能卖个50 亿（我觉得能到 100 亿以上）以上吧。(2013-03-03)",[826,1664,1665,1666,1668,1669,1671,1672,1674,1675,1677,1678,1680,1681,1683],{},"网友 M：用习惯 iphone 的人，一般改用安卓系统会不习惯的，因为",[830,1667,832],{},"只要 ID一输，程序，音乐，通讯录等等都会回来，通过 apple tv，把其他设备上的图像、视频、音乐随时就可以在电视上显示出来。通过查找 iphone 随时可以知道在外地的亲人在哪，然后通过 face time 不花钱视频。当 imac 电脑的图像一键显示到投影上，当随时在中国用 iphone 打开在美国家的电脑操作并打开摄像头看自己的宠物捣乱了没，你就会感觉科技的力量，",[830,1670,832],{},"是世界第一大公司是理所当然的。还有",[830,1673,832],{},"绝对是",[873,1676,53],{"href":879},"，你想要的功能它基本都已经实现了。安卓系统这些功能可能借助其他应用也可以实现，但感觉一切都乱，设备互联性太差。",[830,1679,832],{},"是个大系统，音乐、视频、游戏、软件、相机、电脑……的钱它全赚了，关键你买的音乐，视频，程序等一辈子都是你的，但必须在他的设备上才可以用，谁还会轻易换设备。比如我都买了一万多的软件和音乐了，换其他的设备还须再买，谁还换设备，除了它太差了。apple tv 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