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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":404,"body":818,"category":241,"chapterOrder":9,"date":9,"description":406,"editor":2833,"extension":2834,"meta":2835,"navigation":2836,"order":407,"path":2837,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2838,"seoDescription":406,"seoTitle":2839,"slug":405,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":838,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2840,"sourceStatus":2841,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2842,"stem":2843,"summary":406,"tags":9,"type":9,"updatedAt":2844,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"__hash__":2845,"_collection":2846},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fspeeches\u002Fduanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2824},"minimark",[821,826,834,840,845,850,855,860,865,870,875,880,883,888,893,898,908,913,918,923,928,933,938,943,951,956,961,966,971,976,981,986,991,996,1001,1006,1011,1016,1021,1031,1036,1041,1046,1057,1068,1073,1081,1086,1098,1115,1123,1136,1144,1157,1164,1169,1180,1185,1190,1195,1200,1208,1213,1217,1225,1230,1235,1244,1249,1258,1263,1268,1273,1278,1283,1288,1293,1298,1307,1321,1326,1331,1336,1348,1356,1361,1369,1381,1396,1408,1413,1418,1423,1428,1433,1438,1443,1448,1453,1465,1468,1472,1477,1482,1485,1490,1499,1511,1516,1521,1552,1560,1569,1574,1579,1584,1589,1594,1610,1615,1620,1625,1630,1635,1640,1645,1650,1658,1669,1681,1689,1694,1706,1717,1722,1727,1741,1746,1755,1760,1765,1770,1781,1789,1797,1809,1814,1819,1824,1832,1835,1871,1879,1884,1889,1897,1905,1910,1915,1935,1945,1962,1967,1975,1980,1985,1990,2000,2005,2014,2017,2022,2029,2034,2039,2044,2049,2054,2059,2064,2069,2074,2079,2090,2095,2106,2111,2127,2137,2142,2162,2167,2172,2177,2182,2187,2198,2201,2206,2217,2220,2225,2233,2238,2246,2251,2256,2270,2288,2293,2301,2313,2318,2323,2328,2333,2338,2349,2363,2380,2388,2398,2403,2408,2413,2424,2430,2441,2455,2468,2492,2500,2519,2543,2551,2562,2566,2571,2576,2579,2585,2590,2604,2609,2614,2619,2624,2629,2643,2648,2653,2657,2662,2667,2672,2677,2682,2687,2692,2697,2700,2705,2713,2716,2720,2725,2730,2735,2740,2758,2763,2768,2773,2793,2808,2811,2816,2821],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"_01-聊个人经历","01 聊个人经历",[827,828,829,833],"p",{},[830,831,832],"strong",{},"方三文","：我们就正式开始吧，这个用户问了个特别无厘头的问题，你是如何度过平常的一天，比如说今天？",[827,835,836,839],{},[830,837,838],{},"段永平","：打球、运动。",[827,841,842,844],{},[830,843,832],{},"：天天如此吗？",[827,846,847,849],{},[830,848,838],{},"：差不多吧，在不同的球场打球。",[827,851,852,854],{},[830,853,832],{},"：唯一变化的是这个球场的地点，还有打球的伙伴？",[827,856,857,859],{},[830,858,838],{},"：伙伴有时候有，有时候没有。",[827,861,862,864],{},[830,863,832],{},"：有一个叫“读书匠老张”的用户想问你，小时候你是在什么样的环境下长大的？这个成长的环境跟你现在的性格、成就有没有关系？",[827,866,867,869],{},[830,868,838],{},"：这个就不知道了。我是在南昌出生的，六岁左右跟父母下放到江西安福县，在安福县搬了五、六个地方，一直在农村，再搬回南昌旁边的石岗。确实吃过苦，回石岗的时候就上中学了，从石岗考的大学，大学毕业以后分配到北京，工作了几年读了一个研究生。然后去了广东、佛山、中山、东莞，最后就来加州生活了。",[827,871,872,874],{},[830,873,832],{},"：我觉得可能这个用户他是想问得细一点，你能不能描述一下你的家庭环境，以及父母对你施加了怎么样的教育？",[827,876,877,879],{},[830,878,838],{},"：这些东西其实没有太大意思。我在哪条河里摸过鱼，对他能有什么帮助？我很难讲清楚。我有哥哥、有妹妹，我们性格也各不一样，父母到底有多大的帮助，其实我也不知道。",[827,881,882],{},"但是简单讲，我觉得我父母确实对我们都挺好，不像现在很多父母就很卷，逼小孩这个那个。我爸妈好像不太怎么管我，没有太多的要求，所以我觉得还是比较有安全感的，很多东西我自己是可以做决策的。我从小就很习惯自己做决策，我觉得这点可能跟我的父母有很大的关系。",[827,884,885,887],{},[830,886,832],{},"：你是有充分的自由的，你认为这个是好的对吧？",[827,889,890,892],{},[830,891,838],{},"：对，我觉得我父母对子女是有充分的信任。",[827,894,895,897],{},[830,896,832],{},"：现在你也是父母，你也是这样对你的子女的吗？",[827,899,900,902,903,907],{},[830,901,838],{},"：是的，我觉得我自己做不到的事情，我不要求小孩。他想玩，我那时候也想玩。但是，我发现小孩他们都挺自觉的，该做作业他做，该怎么样怎么样。边界的东西要告诉他，什么东西你是不能做的，我觉得这个很重要。而不是说天天就抓着小孩去训他。我觉得对小孩来讲，给他们安全感很重要，没有安全感的话，人很难",[904,905,222],"a",{"href":906},"\u002Flixing","。",[827,909,910,912],{},[830,911,832],{},"：设定边界，充分信任？",[827,914,915,917],{},[830,916,838],{},"：是的。",[827,919,920,922],{},[830,921,832],{},"：在你的童年和少年时期，有过什么人生的目标吗？",[827,924,925,927],{},[830,926,838],{},"：我没有什么目标，我这人一直胸无大志，我觉得自己就是普通人，能过好小日子就挺好。",[827,929,930,932],{},[830,931,832],{},"：那也可以描述为，这个目标就是把生活过好？",[827,934,935,937],{},[830,936,838],{},"：我甚至都没有那么想，我不是说自己非要干点事情、成就点什么，我还真没有那个想法，我就做自己喜欢做的事情，比较开心。",[827,939,940,942],{},[830,941,832],{},"：在你的童年和少年时代，有没有人这样描述过你，说你有跟别人不同的地方？",[827,944,945,947,948,950],{},[830,946,838],{},"：我记得上中学的时候，有一个老师说，",[830,949,838],{},"，你不能像他们那样不学习，光贪玩。我不知道为什么那个老师会这么讲，他可能觉得我读书还不错，我确实读书还不错。我后来考大学的时候，一突击就上去了。我们那个年代大部分人是考不上大学的，所以那个老师可能是对的，但我也没辜负这位老师，我考上了大学。",[827,952,953,955],{},[830,954,832],{},"：他是觉得你至少在学习能力方面可能比别人强，所以他对你有一定的期望？",[827,957,958,960],{},[830,959,838],{},"：那是一件很奇怪的事情，那是一位英语老师，我英语一塌糊涂。为什么会觉得我学习能力强，我完全一头雾水。我的英文是上大学以后才学的，中学完全没有学。但是那位英文老师说我跟别的小孩不一样。有人说你不一样的时候，你真的是会记住的。",[827,962,963,965],{},[830,964,832],{},"：但至少对你是个激励。",[827,967,968,970],{},[830,969,838],{},"：只是记得这件事情。我没有觉得这个事有什么了不起，你要不说，我早忘了，你一说，我就想起这事来了。",[827,972,973,975],{},[830,974,832],{},"：你本科学的是工科类的专业，后来你又去读了个研究生，应该说是叫商科。在这个过程中，是不是自己的兴趣发生了一些变化？",[827,977,978,980],{},[830,979,838],{},"：其实没有。首先我要强调，我读的不是商科，我读的是计量经济，实际上是经济类的，我认为也是工科，是一个很讲逻辑的学科。大学毕业以后，就分配到北京电子管厂，然后在干部科帮忙，帮了半年多，后来去了教育中心，当了成人教育的老师，教了两年多数学。然后就觉得没太大意思，有个机会考研，就考上了人大，也是想换个口味。因为我对我学的工科的东西不是那么有兴趣。人是在探索、想办法找自己喜欢的东西，我觉得人大对我还是有帮助的。",[827,982,983,985],{},[830,984,832],{},"：你觉得大学里面的学习对你以后的人生影响大吗？",[827,987,988,990],{},[830,989,838],{},"：我觉得大学里最主要是学到了学习的方法，怎么去学习，建立了一个信心，碰到不懂的东西的时候，你是可以学会的。这样的话，你对未来的恐惧就会少很多，不然你什么都害怕。我确实见到很多人，用智能手机有时候打个字都不会，我就觉得很奇怪。我以前也不会打字，学一下很快就学会了，自己也养成了学习的习惯。研究生我觉得其实就等于换了一个行当，多了一些不一样的知识，眼界也会有一点点不一样。但最主要的是从原来的地方出来了。因为我们那个时候是穷学生，你想出去看一眼都没钱的。我去读了个书，又换了个新工作，在这过程当中，都是在学习，当然也会吃很多苦。",[827,992,993,995],{},[830,994,832],{},"：你觉得学到的具体知识，可能是没那么重要的？",[827,997,998,1000],{},[830,999,838],{},"：方法和态度，我觉得是有点作用。方法和你能够学会东西的信心很重要。你碰到什么东西不会害怕，会想着去学习，而不是感到恐惧。我觉得很多人是恐惧的，我让我妈妈学怎么用 iPad，20年前就让她学，现在她肯定也不会学了，我妈已经100岁了。70多、80多岁的时候我让她学，她是坚决不学的，她就认为她学不会。其实那个东西很简单，跟年龄没有关系。",[827,1002,1003,1005],{},[830,1004,832],{},"：你研究生毕业南下广东了，当时这个决定是怎么做出的？",[827,1007,1008,1010],{},[830,1009,838],{},"：我本来是可以留在北京的，有两个单位要招我。后来刚好碰见有个广东的企业在中关村招人，我就去了，但去了以后也没那么理想，所以后来又换到了中山。",[827,1012,1013,1015],{},[830,1014,832],{},"：南下广东的决定，某种程度上可以理解你是投奔了市场？",[827,1017,1018,1020],{},[830,1019,838],{},"：不是，我们其实是走投无路，没有别的路可以选择，就是去尝试一下。那时候还年轻，试一试总是好的。我有一个习惯，就是我如果遇到不合适的东西要赶紧离开。北京对我来讲是不合适的，我待着不舒服，广东怎么样我并不知道，但是我待在一个不想待的地方，这不合理，所以我就要离开。我还曾经考虑过去海南，但了解海南后，觉得不如去广东。",[827,1022,1023,1024,1027,1028,1030],{},"所以我想，如果你的决策是基于很长远的，你的未来到底想怎么样，那决策可能犯错误的概率就会低一些。很多人说，你去广东将来养老怎么办？我说现在这年龄我养什么老，我得先出去看一看。当然你可能说，那是我运气好，走对了路。实际上，中间很多决策都是因为我觉得当时的环境不舒服，必须要离开，包括我到了广东以后，我的第一份工作也是，三个月就离开了。我觉得是走对了路，但是进错了门，所以我又离开了。然后去的中山，后来就做成了",[830,1025,1026],{},"小霸王","，",[830,1029,1026],{},"做得那么好，但是由于机制的问题，我觉得也不合适，我还是离开了。",[827,1032,1033,1035],{},[830,1034,832],{},"：能不能讲一讲这个机制的不合适，具体是怎么样的？",[827,1037,1038,1040],{},[830,1039,838],{},"：最早开始做的时候说我们是有股份的。最早大老板说三七开，后来改二八，再后来说一九。我招人，我跟弟兄们都是有承诺的，最后我发现没办法兑现这个承诺，因为一九将来也是会没有的。到1994年、1995年的时候，我觉得肯定不行，我就决定不干了。",[827,1042,1043,1045],{},[830,1044,832],{},"：不干了我理解可能包括两部分：一部分是你希望有股份的激励，第二是你跟他之间希望是有好的契约关系？",[827,1047,1048,1050,1051,1053,1054,907],{},[830,1049,838],{},"：不是说有没有股份激励，因为一开始是有的。你没有契约，你就不可信了，你跟我讲什么都是不可信的。你有一次两次，难道还要有第三次吗？就像你刮那个瓶盖，刮出“谢”了，你还继续刮完它吗？两个字你刮出一个字，肯定就不往下刮了，我就是刮到那个字后觉得肯定不能再待下去了。我离开的时候是30年前，离开了",[830,1052,1026],{},"之后到东莞去创办",[830,1055,1056],{},"步步高",[827,1058,1059,1061,1062,1064,1065,1067],{},[830,1060,832],{},"：你创办",[830,1063,1056],{},"的时候，是不是非常清晰地解决了类似",[830,1066,1026],{},"那样的问题？",[827,1069,1070,1072],{},[830,1071,838],{},"：小霸王的问题并不是它没有股份制，而是它没有兑现这个承诺。我们从一开始就没有那个问题。我们是什么样就是什么样的，大家一直合作得都挺好。说什么就是什么，所以大家很放心，彼此有很高的信任，我想原来那个大老板也是后悔的。",[827,1074,1075,1077,1078,1080],{},[830,1076,832],{},"：你再回头看，如果在",[830,1079,1026],{},"当时的那个架构下面，有没有可能达到一种比较理想的治理状态？",[827,1082,1083,1085],{},[830,1084,838],{},"：我不知道怎么回答这个问题，事实上没有。怎么才能够理想我不知道，因为那个不是我的问题，是别人的问题。我并没有因为利益的问题离开，而是因为信任的问题。其实我那时候收入就已经很好了，财富自由了。当时分成也是分的，只是它将来会怎么样，我不知道。它有没有办法建立股份制，有没有办法让你感觉到它这个机制是保障你的？就像你看到有一些公司给股东分红都好像是恩赐一样，我觉得这个没有道理。给股东分红就是股东本来就该拿的，员工拿到的分红就是员工该拿的。就像我们发奖金的时候，有人说“谢谢老板”，我说这话不合适，因为这是按契约发的奖金，你不需要谢我。虽然大家顺口觉得拿到钱应该谢一下，但这个谢的方向是不对的。",[827,1087,1088,1090,1091,1093,1094,1097],{},[830,1089,832],{},"：在创办",[830,1092,1056],{},"的时候，你有没有有意识的去创造你喜欢的",[904,1095,135],{"href":1096},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","？",[827,1099,1100,1102,1103,1105,1106,1108,1109,1111,1112,1114],{},[830,1101,838],{},"：",[904,1104,135],{"href":1096},"跟创始人有很大的关系，你找到那些认同你的人，认同你的文化的人。所以我们的",[904,1107,135],{"href":1096},"其实就是大家都认同了这个文化，大家一起待下来了，不认同的人慢慢就会被淘汰掉，会离开。并不是说我从一开始写了一张和",[904,1110,135],{"href":1096},"有关的纸，照本宣科，让大家一点一点执行下去。我们很多文化也是在成长的过程当中，不停的进化，包括我们的“不为清单”也是一条一条加上去的，不能做的事情是要通过很多血的教训才知道这个事不能做，我们以后就不做了。我们公司从我离开以后，我不做CEO20多年了，那确实不可同日而语，现在很厉害。我们那个时候其实就是一个很小的公司，但其实也挺厉害，",[830,1113,1026],{},"的时候我们就挺厉害。",[827,1116,1117,1119,1120,1122],{},[830,1118,832],{},"：你说的逐步形成的",[904,1121,135],{"href":1096},"，因为现在也积淀了很多年了，你能够把它简单的概括一下吗？",[827,1124,1125,1127,1128,1131,1132,1135],{},[830,1126,838],{},"：你看我们一直讲",[904,1129,12],{"href":1130},"\u002Fbenfen","、诚信、用户导向，我们的东西其实都很大白话的。我们的愿景叫做更健康更长久，不健康不长久的事不做，就是很",[904,1133,18],{"href":1134},"\u002Fpingchangxin","的东西。",[827,1137,1138,1140,1141,1143],{},[830,1139,832],{},"：有一个用户说，你大学三年级的时候就想到了",[904,1142,12],{"href":1130},"文化，有这个事吗？",[827,1145,1146,1148,1149,1152,1153,1156],{},[830,1147,838],{},"：大三的时候我是无意中看到德鲁克的一句话，叫“",[904,1150,23],{"href":1151},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","和",[904,1154,28],{"href":1155},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","”，对我触动很大。一下就把是非的东西给拿出来了。你发现凡事只要花五秒钟，想一下这个事情，一辈子会省好多事。我们公司如果说坐下来要讨论一个业务有没有钱挣的时候，会有一句话叫“这是不是件对的事情”，如果感觉是不对的事情，我们很容易就停止；如果你只是考虑有没有钱挣，你就会发现很复杂，很多事情你事先并不知道；但是有些不对的事情，你可能很早的时候是会知道的。当然有些事情你是事后才知道，也没有关系，以后不做就行了。",[827,1158,1159,1160,1163],{},"我可以给你举个简单的例子，我们不做代工，这个不是什么原则，因为做代工也可以挣钱，但是我就觉得我们不擅长做这个。有一次郭台铭跟我聊天，他就问我这个问题，我说我们有个不为清单，他说举个例子，我说我们不做代工，他问“什么意思”，我说“我要做代工，打不过你对不对？”他说那倒是。但是我们做",[904,1161,141],{"href":1162},"\u002Fpinpai","做得很好，企业也不比他们做得小。不是说代工不行，只是代工对我们来讲是不合适的，所以我们就停止，任何人来找我们做代工的生意，我们就很简单，就不做。",[827,1165,1166,1168],{},[830,1167,832],{},"：你们有一个是非的价值观在前面，后来才是怎么做的方法论？",[827,1170,1171,1173,1174,1176,1177,1179],{},[830,1172,838],{},"：是的。因为学习是有代价有曲线的，你可能会犯错。你在",[904,1175,23],{"href":1151},"，然后",[904,1178,28],{"href":1155},"的过程当中，犯的错误是可以接受的。但是你做了错的事情带来的恶果，那是不应该的，因为你明知是错的事情，为什么要去做呢？当然你说你事先不知道，那下一次可以不再做。这样几十年积累下来，就少犯很多错误，也不会在原地折腾。",[827,1181,1182,1184],{},[830,1183,832],{},"：有个叫“学习机器”的用户，他问拥有共同价值观的人，主要是培养出来的，还是选择出来的？",[827,1186,1187,1189],{},[830,1188,838],{},"：选择出来的。",[827,1191,1192,1194],{},[830,1193,832],{},"：步步高里面优秀的人才，是不是不一定是刚工作的时候就被你认出来，可能是长期跟你一起工作的时候，被熏陶出来的？",[827,1196,1197,1199],{},[830,1198,838],{},"：大部分人跟我都差不多，都是普通人。大家有认同的价值观，当然也受过大学教育，学习还可以，后面的东西都是慢慢的学习积累下来的。但是价值观认同是非常重要的，价值观要是相互不认同，这事没法干。大家都各打各的小算盘，肯定是要出问题的。我们三十周年庆回去公司，好多老同事都在，一直到退休，有些还在工作的。",[827,1201,1202,1204,1205,1207],{},[830,1203,832],{},"：按你的说法，",[904,1206,23],{"href":1151},"，找对的人，选择还是更重要？",[827,1209,1210,1212],{},[830,1211,838],{},"：找对的人也是需要时间的。比如说，找对的人你分两种：一种是不对的人，你慢慢把他淘汰掉；还有一种是他善恶都有，他认同了你的文化之后，他慢慢的就跟着你走了。所以我们一直都说，我们有两种人，一种叫同道中人，一个叫同行中人。他认同你了，他虽然搞不清楚，但是你让我这样做，我就这样做。这些人他有时候不小心还会出点娄子，但他也能够回来。待得时间很长的人，就会有这样的机会，像我们的代理商这么多年下来，其实也都很好，大家对文化的认同还是很强的。",[822,1214,1216],{"id":1215},"_02-聊企业经营","02 聊企业经营",[827,1218,1219,1221,1222,1224],{},[830,1220,832],{},"：我再问一个企业具体经营的问题。可能对",[830,1223,1056],{},"系来说，它有个非常大的变化是后来做了智能手机，原来做过别的电子产品，做过功能机，后来做了智能手机，这是一个很大的变化。这个决策过程，好像最开始你是不赞成的？",[827,1226,1227,1229],{},[830,1228,838],{},"：对。",[827,1231,1232,1234],{},[830,1233,832],{},"：后来是怎么变成又做的？",[827,1236,1237,1239,1240,1243],{},[830,1238,838],{},"：因为他们是CEO，我赞不赞成不影响他们做不做决定。大家也是走投无路了，我们做电话机，一年两年就做到全国第一了。后来觉得这个市场再做下去好像也没有太大的前景，然后手机来了，沈炜觉得我们应该做手机。我那时候觉得我们做手机可能做不过",[830,1241,1242],{},"松下","、索尼、摩托罗拉等。",[827,1245,1246,1248],{},[830,1247,832],{},"：这些是功能机时代的事情？",[827,1250,1251,1253,1254,1257],{},[830,1252,838],{},"：功能机时代。然后他说，阿段不是的。他最后说服我的，是说手机其实是个性化非常强的东西。我原来是认为它跟家电一样，别人规模比我们大，我们很难打得过别人。我说，如果你认为它是很个性化的东西，那我们就有机会，我们能够做出",[904,1255,146],{"href":1256},"\u002Fchayihua","，我们能够做得跟别人不一样，在有的地方可以做得比别人好。加上我们做企业已经有很多年的经验了。我们公司的规矩就是这样，不管我反不反对，CEO做的决定就是他们做的决定，结果也是他们自己来承受的。他不能说阿段反对，所以我没做，我没有责任。我只是作为一个顾问的角色。很多人不太理解，以为我是个老板，其实我在公司早就不是，我甚至当CEO的时候就不太管，都是让他们做决定。所以他们接过去也是很顺，放权是要很长时间的。",[827,1259,1260,1262],{},[830,1261,832],{},"：从做功能机到智能机是不是一个更大的决定？",[827,1264,1265,1267],{},[830,1266,838],{},"：那个不是什么决定，是被逼的，功能机卖不动了，我们差点都死在上面了。虽然我们功能机已经做得非常好了，但是智能机来得非常的凶猛，就那么一瞬间，把市场基本上占了。我们那时候手里还有好多功能机，所以三十年（庆）的时候，大家也是很感慨，我们渡过去了。我那时候还专门回去过，因为我们存了很多物料，当时的现金消耗得非常快，我记得账面有七、八十个亿的现金，看着往下掉，掉到最后就快到底了，又开始回来了。因为那时候智能机已经出来，我们出智能机一代两代差不多，就缓过来了。中间有一年的时间，2012年到2013年，我们亏了不少钱。当时我回去就说，如果我们要倒的话，不要倒得太难看，也看过别人倒，倒完了以后就是一地鸡毛。我说这不行，不能让供应商吃亏，也不要让员工吃亏。当然我这么说，我是有一点底气的，因为我投资这一块一直都没有动，就相当于我们的后备役部队一样，一直都没有上，最后也没有上，所以还挺好。反正弟兄们也真的是很争气。",[827,1269,1270,1272],{},[830,1271,832],{},"：从功能机往智能机转的过程中，其实比从做电话到做手机要面临过更大的危机？",[827,1274,1275,1277],{},[830,1276,838],{},"：因为规模太大，我觉得我们也是有失误的，就是不够敏感。因为在功能机上做得很好了，我们其实是有风险承受能力的，但是那一次确实亏得也挺多。以前也犯过类似的错误，但是规模没有那么大，所以缓过来也挺快。",[827,1279,1280,1282],{},[830,1281,832],{},"：没想到它的销量会下滑得这么厉害？",[827,1284,1285,1287],{},[830,1286,838],{},"：是的。降的速度太快了，因为我们过去的经验曲线认为它是慢慢降的，其实我们早就在开发智能机，也知道这个趋势，但是功能机还是下了很多单，总觉得有一个过程。没想到它一瞬间就过去了，像现在的AI一样。",[827,1289,1290,1292],{},[830,1291,832],{},"：新技术推动新的产品，它的这种普及程度比想象中快？",[827,1294,1295,1297],{},[830,1296,838],{},"：你也可以这么说。主要是新的产品确实很好，它一下就把老的产品完全替代了，而且智能机出来以后，你看多少东西被替代：相机没了，像我们做的电子词典、复读机、学习机，基本上都被手机替代了。",[827,1299,1300,1302,1303,1306],{},[830,1301,832],{},"：因为智能机现在是一个非常大的产业了。我回想起我的一些经历，我看过摩托罗拉一款手机叫6188，其实已经有智能机的雏形；后来有一个",[830,1304,1305],{},"诺基亚","的E71，它也是智能机的一个雏形？",[827,1308,1309,1311,1312,1314,1315,1317,1318,1320],{},[830,1310,838],{},"：它是弱智机，",[830,1313,1305],{},"做那一款我印象非常深，我拿到了很兴奋，但是发现用起来好弱智。以前我们用",[830,1316,1305],{},"手机用得很习惯，它把界面全改了。我拿起来不会用，你想我一学工的人，在那折腾半天都不知道怎么用，所以",[830,1319,1305],{},"最后倒了一点都不意外，我觉得这公司的文化肯定是烂掉了。",[827,1322,1323,1325],{},[830,1324,832],{},"：但是我觉得它毕竟在那个地方走出了一步，虽然最后没成功，是不是我们可以这样理解，也许它那个企业里面也有人对产业、产品的趋势有一些相对正确的判断？",[827,1327,1328,1330],{},[830,1329,838],{},"：产品趋势都没有问题，谁都看得见，但是它的文化很重要。",[827,1332,1333,1335],{},[830,1334,832],{},"：他们没这个能力？",[827,1337,1338,1340,1341,1344,1345,1347],{},[830,1339,838],{},"：他们太注重市场占有率了，太注重生意，不太注重用户，所以才会有那么大的miss，而且它后来又miss了一次。其实安卓出来的时候，",[830,1342,1343],{},"谷歌","是去找过他们的，希望",[830,1346,1305],{},"转安卓，他们不干，他们要守住自己那个东西，终于把自己给守死了，所以这个没办法。",[827,1349,1350,1352,1353,1355],{},[830,1351,832],{},"：至少像摩托罗拉、",[830,1354,1305],{},"，曾经是知名度非常高的企业，他们曾经在管理方面很有经验？",[827,1357,1358,1360],{},[830,1359,838],{},"：管理救不了一家公司，他们在战略上、在文化上出问题了。",[827,1362,1363,1365,1366,1368],{},[830,1364,832],{},"：我记得你曾经是比较推崇",[830,1367,1242],{},"的管理，后来是不是这个看法也有些变化？",[827,1370,1371,1373,1374,1377,1378,1380],{},[830,1372,838],{},"：松下",[830,1375,1376],{},"还是蛮厉害的一家公司，但是我觉得日本这种大文化，不是特别容易理解。最早我去找过","松下，想跟他们合作做手机。我跟陈明永、沈炜两个人去",[830,1379,1242],{},"，一直从科长、部长，见到了中村社长，他们就问我们的来意，我说我们其实是觉得，当时我们对自己不是说太有信心，对技术、对资金的来源，对后面的会发生什么事，还是有点不太有底的，就觉得找一个比较大一点的公司合作，说不定会更有机会。我跟他们讲，以我们的实力，合作的话，我们在中国市场两年做到前三名、三年做到前两名，都是很有可能的。",[827,1382,1383,1384,1386,1387,1389,1390,1392,1393,1395],{},"但没有任何一个人问过我，你为什么这么认为？所以我离开",[830,1385,1242],{},"我就知道，他们根本就不信任你，",[830,1388,1242],{},"这方面很官僚，包括我见到社长，社长跟我讲“当我在做一个决策的时候，我就想着",[830,1391,1242],{},"老人站在我背后会怎么想”，我心想完蛋了，因为",[830,1394,1242],{},"老人早就不在了。",[827,1397,1398,1401,1402,1404,1405,1407],{},[830,1399,1400],{},"乔布斯","跟蒂姆·库克讲，你当CEO就是你做决策，你不要想我",[830,1403,1400],{},"会做什么，这就对了。我也是这样跟大家讲，他们是CEO，他们做决策，一定不要想阿段会怎么做，你要那么想，我们早就完了，不会等到今天。所以我觉得，",[830,1406,1242],{},"的文化确实是出了问题。",[827,1409,1410,1412],{},[830,1411,832],{},"：它可能把自己过往的体制、成就，可能看得太重了？",[827,1414,1415,1417],{},[830,1416,838],{},"：这个我不知道。我没有关心过发生什么事，我就觉得它那样不对。尤其是一个社长跟我讲，他在做决策的时候想着，老社长站在背后怎么想，我觉得他们背了很重的负担。因为你的眼睛是要看到用户的，他们的眼睛是看倒后镜的。等时间足够长，一定是会出毛病的。",[827,1419,1420,1422],{},[830,1421,832],{},"：按你刚才的描述，首先你建立了很好的授权机制，很早的时候就让合作伙伴自己去决策，然后你也很早的退出了，这种经营管理的安排好像在企业家里面并不常见？",[827,1424,1425,1427],{},[830,1426,838],{},"：这跟我有什么关系，我又不是常见的企业家。我并不关心别人想干什么，我想打球，别人想打球他们也可以到处打。最主要的是他们干得比我好，我觉得他们比我的动力要强。我觉得我该干的事我都干过，然后我还有其他享受的事情，我为什么要待在那个地方？而且我很信任他们，我觉得这点很重要，我也不怕他们犯错误。",[827,1429,1430,1432],{},[830,1431,832],{},"：但是我看到的很多的企业家，他希望自己一直在一线？",[827,1434,1435,1437],{},[830,1436,838],{},"：这跟我没有关系，不在乎他们想什么。",[827,1439,1440,1442],{},[830,1441,832],{},"：一个叫“路边边走”的用户问，他说创始人老板离开公司，他有什么办法判断可以离开了或者条件成熟了？",[827,1444,1445,1447],{},[830,1446,838],{},"：他觉得可以离开的时候就可以离开，但是很难，不是很多人可以做到这一点。难在哪里？难在他不想。他要想的话总是能找到办法。这个其实无可非议，我不觉得这个东西有什么好讨论的，有些人他喜欢做这件事情，我喜欢让弟兄们做，我觉得其实就是一个选择，你不选又想羡慕我的生活，你又想享受你的生活，那做不到啊。有些人是喜欢工作的，我是真不喜欢。",[827,1449,1450,1452],{},[830,1451,832],{},"：一方面，我觉得人很敬业，一直在工作，好像是一种好的品质；但同时我们又不能否认，随着人的年龄的增长，他的能力是会下降的，是不是总的来说，还是得承认人对企业，即使是创始人对企业的贡献，他也是阶段性的？",[827,1454,1455,1457,1458,1461,1462,1464],{},[830,1456,838],{},"：我不认为可以这么想。我觉得这个没有道理。",[830,1459,1460],{},"巴菲特","90多岁了，人家做得也挺好，刚刚退休。他为什么退了我不知道，可能身体没有以前那么好。我前两年去见他，他带我们参观办公室，是带着我们一堆人走的，走了50多分钟，所以那个时候他身体还不错，最近我不知道，但是我看他开股东大会其实还OK，他是觉得也许确实该交班了。",[830,1463,1460],{},"是一个特别典型的例子，他就是喜欢做这件事情，他就一直在做。",[827,1466,1467],{},"你为什么非要因为年龄就退休呢？我不觉得年龄一定是一个障碍，但自己要对自己有个评价，你要自己都啥也记不住了，做个决策也是晕晕乎乎的，当然如果是你自己的公司，你愿意，其实别人也没有可说的东西。其实我在当CEO的时候，他们就已经很多自主权了，所以我交给他们是自然而然的事情。我很少在办公室，我要么就去打球，要么就去打球。",[822,1469,1471],{"id":1470},"_03-聊投资","03 聊投资",[827,1473,1474,1476],{},[830,1475,832],{},"：一个用户叫“一根白”问的，第一次接触股票投资是什么契机？",[827,1478,1479,1481],{},[830,1480,838],{},"：这还需要契机吗，到处都知道有股票。我退休了以后，搬到这里来生活了，我也不能天天24小时打球，我也不会去找份工作。后来就想着，投资好像跟生意有关，跟企业有关系，我就来研究研究，也买了很多书，包括看图看线，看不懂。我这一工科出来的人，怎么这图我就看不懂，他们就能得出这样的结论、那样的结论？",[827,1483,1484],{},"后来直到我看了老巴的东西，其实啥也没看，就看“买股票就是买公司”，我就看到那一句话，突然就明白了，这句话就够了。因为剩下的就是你怎么看公司，那不是老巴能够教的，你不懂企业，跟你讲多少理论也是白讲。但是我毕竟是做企业出来的，看懂别人的生意也相对来讲比较容易，但是我也懂不了太多的生意，这些年就那么几个。我觉得懂生意很重要，不懂生意投资是很难做的。",[827,1486,1487,1489],{},[830,1488,832],{},"：如果用一句话来概括你的投资理念的话，是不是买股票就是买公司？",[827,1491,1492,1494,1495,1498],{},[830,1493,838],{},"：是的。但是后面那句话是，你要看懂公司，这个很难。为什么说投资很简单，但是不容易？简单就是你一定要看公司，你一定要看懂生意，你也要看懂未来的",[904,1496,88],{"href":1497},"\u002Fxianjinliu","；难是难在你很难做到这一点，大部分公司都不容易看懂。",[827,1500,1501,1503,1504,1506,1507,1510],{},[830,1502,832],{},"：我记得",[830,1505,1460],{},"还是",[830,1508,1509],{},"芒格","说过，他说一辈子投资的话，如果是有个打孔机，打20个孔，你的额度用完了吗？",[827,1512,1513,1515],{},[830,1514,838],{},"：我应该还没有。",[827,1517,1518,1520],{},[830,1519,832],{},"：20个孔，你感觉现在自己打了多少个了？",[827,1522,1523,1525,1526,1528,1529,1532,1533,1536,1537,1539,1540,1543,1544,1547,1548,1551],{},[830,1524,838],{},"：我可以数得出来，我自己真的投过比较大金额的，最早是",[830,1527,596],{},"，然后雅虎应该算，投雅虎其实就是想买阿里。后来差不多就到",[830,1530,1531],{},"苹果","了，",[830,1534,1535],{},"伯克希尔","哈撒韦我的比重也不大，",[830,1538,1531],{},"比较大，",[830,1541,1542],{},"茅台","其实也蛮大的。",[830,1545,1546],{},"腾讯","，我现在其实还可以。通用电气就是在2008年危机时，确实投了一下，我现在想不起比重来了。但是他们换CEO以后，我就很快就退出了。我觉得按今天的想法，我是不会投通用电气的，通用电气的",[904,1549,70],{"href":1550},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","并不好。我那个时候还没有现在的水平。",[827,1553,1554,1556,1557,1559],{},[830,1555,832],{},"：我们还是先数数孔，",[830,1558,1343],{},"算一个孔吗？",[827,1561,1562,1564,1565,1568],{},[830,1563,838],{},"：谷歌",[830,1566,1567],{},"其实都不算，我没有在","谷歌上真的下过重注。",[827,1570,1571,1573],{},[830,1572,832],{},"：拼多多算吗？",[827,1575,1576,1578],{},[830,1577,838],{},"：拼多多可以算。拼多多很特殊了，是因为我在早期的时候，初创阶段的时候就已经投了。所以我投的钱其实比重很少，赚的钱确实很多。严格意义上其实都不算，因为我不是说我看懂了往里投，我是稀里糊涂投的。",[827,1580,1581,1583],{},[830,1582,832],{},"：如果再想不出别的孔的话，听起来就10个孔还没打完。",[827,1585,1586,1588],{},[830,1587,838],{},"：差不多，小10个孔，所以我还有很久可以做投资，因为要做够20个。",[827,1590,1591,1593],{},[830,1592,832],{},"：可能全世界二级市场的投资人里，敢说自己20个孔的额度没用完的人可能也很少？",[827,1595,1596,1598,1599,1601,1602,1604,1605,1604,1607,1609],{},[830,1597,838],{},"：这个不知道，看你的定义。到20个孔，有些人一辈子其实都到不了，他就没有重仓过任何公司，他最高的重仓就是5个点。甚至很有名的投资人，比方说彼得·林奇，他一辈子做过2000多个股票，他一定很忙，所以头发白得也很早，早早的就退休了，比我还早。我不知道他现在还做不做投资，他估计现在还做，就自己给自己做。我碰过的股票可能也很多，我还买过神华，我不是买过神华，我现在有神华，只是它比重不大。",[830,1600,1542],{},"我是比重比较大。我一般跟大家讲，我就三只股票：",[830,1603,1531],{},"、",[830,1606,1546],{},[830,1608,1542],{},"，差不多真是这样。",[827,1611,1612,1614],{},[830,1613,832],{},"：大概的结论就是这20个孔没用完？",[827,1616,1617,1619],{},[830,1618,838],{},"：关键看你对于孔的定义是什么。老巴他碰过的股票也不止20个，但他真正重仓，他跟你说的这些股票，其实是不多的。",[827,1621,1622,1624],{},[830,1623,832],{},"：有哪个孔是你觉得打了孔，其实不是很满意的？",[827,1626,1627,1629],{},[830,1628,838],{},"：不会有这样的现象，因为你不满意，你赶紧就跑了，它就已经不在你孔那里了，不然逻辑上不成立，你不喜欢你还拿着，这跟小孩不一样，你不喜欢，你还得留着，股票你不喜欢，你可以用脚投票的。",[827,1631,1632,1634],{},[830,1633,832],{},"：我们接下来把它说细一点，你刚才说理解“买股票就是买公司”这个理念是容易的，但是要搞懂一家具体公司不容易？",[827,1636,1637,1639],{},[830,1638,838],{},"：理解理念不容易，理解这句话非常难。我看在雪球上那些球友们，能有1%的人真懂这句话就了不起，做到就更难。但是做不到的人，也是能挣钱的。",[827,1641,1642,1644],{},[830,1643,832],{},"：他倒不一定是他不懂，他可能理解不是这样的。",[827,1646,1647,1649],{},[830,1648,838],{},"：我说的就是这个意思。当你懂了以后，你就不会受市场影响，如果你还天天看市场、天天看动态、天天看过去怎么样……哪怕是很大V的人，我也看见一天到晚在讲市场怎么样，他就是不懂。你看我什么时候讲市场，什么时候我在雪球上说“今天要涨了”“明天要掉了”。但不懂不等于不挣钱，投资这个东西很有意思，你闭着眼睛买一只股票拿着，你100个人里头，其实有50个人可以挣钱，那这50个人就可以出来讲。但是你要让他重复，他就没有那么容易。我可以教大家一个赚钱的办法，你就买标普500指数，你最后总是赚钱，但是这不等于你就懂了，但你要是真的这样做，其实也表示你是懂了。",[827,1651,1652,1654,1655,1657],{},[830,1653,832],{},"：搞懂公司还是很难，怎么样确定自己搞懂了一个公司？我们就以",[830,1656,596],{},"为例，你怎么样确定自己搞懂了？",[827,1659,1660,1662,1663,1665,1666,1668],{},[830,1661,838],{},"：我本身做游戏出身，我跟他们游戏团队聊聊，觉得他们是一帮很热爱游戏的人，真的很认真，这是第一。第二，这个",[904,1664,70],{"href":1550},"，我觉得它很有道理，加上它的现金当时比市值高。我作为风投一样的，买进去很简单。加上当时有这个契机，刚好股票低成那个样子，大家都是恐慌性的，觉得他们要完蛋了，我觉得他们大概率是有机会挣钱的，刚好我账上有点现金，就满仓买了",[830,1667,596],{},"，6个月涨了20倍。",[827,1670,1671,1672,1674,1675,1677,1678,1680],{},"你说我看懂了吗，我要看懂了，我应该把整个",[830,1673,596],{},"买下来。所以懂这个东西，我也不知道是什么意思，但是我大致觉得他们是能挣钱的，我觉得我的投资风险不会特别的高。为什么你能够拿到那么久，赚了那么多钱你还不卖？问题那些钱对我来讲它并不多，所以我可以比较",[904,1676,222],{"href":906},"的去想一件事情。如果我只有那么多钱，我还真保不住我也可能卖掉，所以保持",[904,1679,222],{"href":906},"是一件很难的事情。",[827,1682,1683,1685,1686,1688],{},[830,1684,832],{},"：对",[830,1687,596],{},"的判断里面，听起来包括了两个部分，一是你对游戏这个商业本身有个判断，觉得它是能挣钱的？",[827,1690,1691,1693],{},[830,1692,838],{},"：当然，我做游戏出身的，我可懂游戏了。",[827,1695,1696,1698,1699,1702,1703,1097],{},[830,1697,832],{},"：第二，对它的定价的判断，比如说它的股价很低，可能低于它的持有的",[904,1700,79],{"href":1701},"\u002Fjingxianjin","。这个其实也是老巴说的",[904,1704,101],{"href":1705},"\u002Fanquanbianji",[827,1707,1708,1710,1711,1713,1714,1716],{},[830,1709,838],{},"：老巴的",[904,1712,101],{"href":1705},"不是指这个，",[904,1715,101],{"href":1705},"指的是你对公司有多懂，这是我的理解。不是说有多便宜，便宜的东西可以更便宜的，当时我就是觉得他们是有机会赚钱，但是并不知道它能赚多少。我要知道它能赚今天这么多钱，我哪怕晚一点，我也会多买，不会卖，我后来也是卖掉的，所以表示我其实也没有那么懂。",[827,1718,1719,1721],{},[830,1720,832],{},"：懂和不懂，按你这么说，其实它处于一个灰色的区域，不是那么清晰的一个标准，是这样吗？",[827,1723,1724,1726],{},[830,1725,838],{},"：我也不知道，但是到处问人家的人肯定是不懂的。那么不问的人是不是就懂了，你可以说它属于灰色地带。至少我赚了100多倍，你说我懂还是不懂，我卖肯定有我卖的原因，有卖的道理，而且我其实也没少赚，因为我有其他的也很好的投资标的。",[827,1728,1729,1731,1732,1734,1735,1737,1738,1740],{},[830,1730,832],{},"：我们再说另一个标的——",[830,1733,1531],{},"公司。一个叫“莉莉安78”的用户问，15年前",[830,1736,1531],{},"是一个卖硬件的公司，现在利润是一半硬件一半软件，",[904,1739,70],{"href":1550},"有了变化，你买的时候是不是就有这个判断？",[827,1742,1743,1745],{},[830,1744,838],{},"：我是2011年买的，那个时候已经很清晰了。",[827,1747,1748,1750,1751,1754],{},[830,1749,832],{},"：你当时能判断，类似",[904,1752,166],{"href":1753},"\u002Fpingtai","业务、软件的业务它会创造更多的利润？",[827,1756,1757,1759],{},[830,1758,838],{},"：我是这个行当里头的，我怎么会不知道。那都不是叫判断，那是一个你看得见的一个东西。",[827,1761,1762,1764],{},[830,1763,832],{},"：水桶里的鱼？",[827,1766,1767,1769],{},[830,1768,838],{},"：那倒谈不上，但至少是一个不远处的大象，我们自己就在做这个生意，我当然能看见。",[827,1771,1772,1774,1775,1777,1778,1780],{},[830,1773,832],{},"：你好像在",[904,1776,135],{"href":1096},"方面，对",[830,1779,1531],{},"也有一个判断是吗？",[827,1782,1783,1785,1786,1788],{},[830,1784,838],{},"：对，我觉得他们的",[904,1787,135],{"href":1096},"很好。",[827,1790,1791,1793,1794,1796],{},[830,1792,832],{},"：你为什么认为它的",[904,1795,135],{"href":1096},"很好？",[827,1798,1799,1801,1802,1805,1806,1808],{},[830,1800,838],{},"：我觉得他们用户导向做得很好，他们不是那种很生意导向的公司，他们非常在乎把东西做好，非常在乎",[904,1803,156],{"href":1804},"\u002Fyonghutiyan","，非常在乎怎么改善，非常的想得很长远。所以给用户提供不了价值的东西，或者提供不了足够价值的产品，再热门他们也不会做。我们之前发生过争论，你说",[830,1807,1531],{},"到底会不会出大屏，我说他们一定会，但是我们等了三年才出来，但是我怎么就知道它会出大屏？",[827,1810,1811,1813],{},[830,1812,832],{},"：因为大屏是用户需求。",[827,1815,1816,1818],{},[830,1817,838],{},"：对呀，我们做这行的，我们大屏都出来了。所以我就知道用户是一定会要大屏的，但是我没想到他们扛了三年。",[827,1820,1821,1823],{},[830,1822,832],{},"：这个事情我也是很困惑的。",[827,1825,1826,1828,1829,1831],{},[830,1827,838],{},"：我从来没有困惑过，我就知道他们犯错误了，蒂姆·库克在这个地方犯了一个非常大的错误，他有点像中村。",[830,1830,1400],{},"说过这个是最好的，所以他们就不屑去做。其实他们早就在研究，研究室里头所有的大屏它都有，但是他们就是没有推，当然他们可能也是因为觉得性能还不够好，或者什么原因，我不知道，反正最后他们推了。",[827,1833,1834],{},"我另外给你再举个例子，最早的时候他们说要做iTV，就是电视机。我记得打球的时候，信誓旦旦告诉我，他们一定会做，样品都看见了。我说他们一定不会，他们问我为什么，我说他们能做什么？我用同样的话跟我公司的人也讲过，因为我们也做电视，他们后来就把它砍掉了，后来刘作虎上来，又做了一次，又砍了一次。我说咋回事刘作虎，我当年就跟你讲过的，我们为什么不做电视，他非要再尝一下。陈明永还让他试了，就像当年我让陈明永试一样。试完他觉得确实不对，因为这个产品没有办法提供太有价值的东西。",[827,1836,1837,1838,1840,1841,1843,1844,1846,1847,1849,1850,1852,1853,1855,1856,1858,1859,1861,1862,1864,1865,1867,1868,1870],{},"十几年前，到处在说",[830,1839,1531],{},"要出",[830,1842,1531],{},"车、电动车，我说它们绝不会有这个电动车的，很多人说不可能，它们都在做了，我说它们做不出来，不是技术的问题，是它们到底能干什么。那么大个车，",[830,1845,1531],{},"能够提供的价值非常有限，它卖什么价？它有没有足够的",[904,1848,146],{"href":1256},"？这是我对",[830,1851,1531],{},"比一般人了解的地方。如果真的出",[830,1854,1531],{},"车，我很高兴，我很想看到它们到底能做什么，但是我就是认为它们做不出来。直到最近，我到纽约碰到",[830,1857,1531],{},"店的老板，他告诉我，他们那个店停了三年，改了一次，是准备卖",[830,1860,1531],{},"车的那个改法，后来又改回来。我说原来你们其实早就知道不卖",[830,1863,1531],{},"车的，他们至少提前一年到两年就知道这个事，但是",[830,1866,1531],{},"其实没有宣布。我一听它们还真是做过",[830,1869,1531],{},"车，其实这个都超出我想象的，我以为它们只是在研究。你看果然像我说那样，其实这就是它的文化，它发现产品没有办法给用户增加足够的价值的时候，它们就不碰了，它们不会为了生意去做。它们要是为了做生意的话，完全可以做车，它要做车也不会有谁比它做得更好。但是它到底最后会怎么样，我不知道。这是我的理解，我觉得这家公司的文化还是蛮好的，当然好文化的公司也不少。",[827,1872,1873,1875,1876,1878],{},[830,1874,832],{},"：但是它也可能会犯错，比如说刚才你举的做大屏手机三年没做，然后差一点做的",[830,1877,1531],{},"车？",[827,1880,1881,1883],{},[830,1882,838],{},"：文化好，最主要的就是最终它会走回正道，有一个北斗星在指引着它，它到底该干什么。不是为了生意，你仅仅讨论生意是很容易犯错误的。",[827,1885,1886,1888],{},[830,1887,832],{},"：如果有好的文化的话，并不能完全避免犯错，但是可能犯了错误被纠正的概率大于没有好的文化？",[827,1890,1891,1893,1894,1896],{},[830,1892,838],{},"：犯错误的概率大家其实都差不多的，只是说你犯不犯下去，还有就是你有没有不为清单。我们三十年下来，犯的错误就是比其他人少。你看我在雪球上写的那一条，人们关心的是我们做过什么，其实我们之所以成为我们，很大的原因是因为我们不做的那些事情。因为我们知道这个事对我们不合适，就不做了，不做不就少犯很多错误吗，",[904,1895,23],{"href":1151},"的概率就大了。其实就是小小的一点点的差别，可能三十年就是很大的差别。",[827,1898,1899,1901,1902,1904],{},[830,1900,832],{},"：现在价格的",[830,1903,1531],{},"，你觉得如何？",[827,1906,1907,1909],{},[830,1908,838],{},"：不便宜。",[827,1911,1912,1914],{},[830,1913,832],{},"：就是从投资回报率，也不可能寄予很高的期望？",[827,1916,1917,1919,1920,1923,1924,1926,1927,1027,1929,1931,1932,1934],{},[830,1918,838],{},"：是。也看用户本身的",[904,1921,115],{"href":1922},"\u002Fjihuichengben","是多少。他如果把钱存在银行里拿一个多点的利息的话，那你还真不如买",[830,1925,1531],{},"，但是如果你可以一年赚个十几个点，可能真的就没必要买",[830,1928,1531],{},[830,1930,1531],{},"最后有没有发展，其实我也不知道。当然它一直是很强的，它有那么多的用户，AI最后落地在哪，不还是要在手机上吗？",[830,1933,1531],{},"将来再翻一倍两倍三倍都是有可能的，但是我不知道，不是说它就一定不行，但是它不便宜。",[827,1936,1937,1939,1940,1506,1942,1944],{},[830,1938,832],{},"：你也曾经在2008年的时候买过通用电气，后来你对它的看法是有些变化的。对它的看法的这个变化，主要是在",[904,1941,70],{"href":1550},[904,1943,135],{"href":1096},"方面？",[827,1946,1947,1949,1950,1952,1953,1955,1956,1958,1959,1961],{},[830,1948,838],{},"：以前我觉得是在",[904,1951,135],{"href":1096},"上，",[904,1954,70],{"href":1550},"其实我一直就没看懂，但",[904,1957,135],{"href":1096},"我以前喜欢，他们说的这个时代在变，唯一不变成是诚信，对诚信特别强调。但我后来我去看他们主页，我找不到这句话了，我从找不到那句话开始就决定卖了，我就觉得他们都不再强调这件事情，加上",[904,1960,70],{"href":1550},"我确实看不懂，买卖了太多的公司。最早的是因为受杰克·韦尔奇的影响，觉得这家公司好神奇，后来发现其实也没有谁是神奇的。",[827,1963,1964,1966],{},[830,1965,832],{},"：是不是对杰克·韦尔奇你可能都祛魅了？",[827,1968,1969,1971,1972,1974],{},[830,1970,838],{},"：倒也谈不上，我不了解，还好是卖了。我卖的时候4000多个亿的市值，现在可能都不到了，你想我把它换成",[830,1973,1531],{},"，多大差别啊。我大概拿了可能两、三年或者三、四年，没有拿太久。",[827,1976,1977,1979],{},[830,1978,832],{},"：但这单交易也是挣了钱的？",[827,1981,1982,1984],{},[830,1983,838],{},"：犯错误有时候也是会挣钱的，我觉得那是一个错误，回到今天我不会买。",[827,1986,1987,1989],{},[830,1988,832],{},"：即使挣了钱你也不能否认它是个错误？",[827,1991,1992,1994,1995,1152,1997,1999],{},[830,1993,838],{},"：它当然是个错误，因为它不符合我后来决定的，要符合",[904,1996,135],{"href":1096},[904,1998,70],{"href":1550},"这两个过滤器。",[827,2001,2002,2004],{},[830,2003,832],{},"：你现在应该还持有西方石油，你说这个是抄的老巴的作业？",[827,2006,2007,2009,2010,2013],{},[830,2008,838],{},"：是，但这有一些历史的东西在里头，因为我以前受另外一个朋友的影响，买过油气指数，因为当时他告诉我，油气指数掉得太离谱了，油不可能长期一直这样掉下去。我就问他，这个指数跟油气本身的价格有多大的关联度，他说99个点，我说那很好啊，我就买了长期拿着。但是我后来再问他，你说的是怎么个关联？他说是每一天，我一想完了，每一天99%，那个差别就大了。我现在肯定不能",[904,2011,120],{"href":2012},"\u002Fzhangqichiyou","，时间损耗非常大，我就卖了。我那个时候其实投了不少钱，差不多有一个亿的美金，但是亏了1000多万。",[827,2015,2016],{},"你看错的事情要马上改一下，我就通通都卖掉，都卖了以后亏了1000多万，1000万出头吧。但是就有个小情结是油这个东西确实不好搞，然后看到老巴买了西方石油以后，我就有个念头，这其实是买油的一个很有意思的办法，就是买个油田存在地底下，它不会受时间损耗，那我就买一点拿着，可能放个20年，我觉得20年以后油肯定不是这个价钱。我对油没有那么了解，所以我也不是很高的比重。但是大家在雪球看见我说了，大家就很当回事。你要跟着我100%投进去，那就是你的事，这跟我也没关系，我投的比重非常小。",[827,2018,2019,2021],{},[830,2020,832],{},"：很多用户他也有自我的认知，说自己对具体的公司理解是有限的。但是他认可一些人对公司有理解，那种投资方法叫抄作业，你觉得抄作业是不是一种可持续的投资的方法？",[827,2023,2024,2026,2027,907],{},[830,2025,838],{},"：它很难，因为抄作业你是滞后的。你抄老巴的作业还好，老巴的东西都是透明的，你抄我的怎么抄？我又不公布我的持仓，我买得多买得少，你根本就不知道啊，你比重跟不上。我可能买个东西，就是为了逼自己多看一看，你也跟着，一看阿段也买了，你就All In了，你的All In不就错了嘛。所以我觉得这个很难，你不懂企业确实是很难，不懂企业最好就是不要碰，我非常保守，A股我就只是买了",[830,2028,1542],{},[827,2030,2031,2033],{},[830,2032,832],{},"：你觉得买指数比抄作业要好？",[827,2035,2036,2038],{},[830,2037,838],{},"：我认为你要买，不能说买指数，因为指数有好多种，不是所有的指数都可以买的。老巴讲的指数其实就是标普500指数，它并不是所有的指数，指数可能有几千个，或者纳斯达克100指数也可以。",[827,2040,2041,2043],{},[830,2042,832],{},"：有一个用户叫 “迷人的打新小沙暴”，他问，是什么原因或者什么样的思考，让你去考虑投资英伟达这样的看起来是一个高度变化的行业中的一个企业？",[827,2045,2046,2048],{},[830,2047,838],{},"：我以前也以为它高度变化，但是后来发现它们确实很厉害，它们的生态确实很强，你看英伟达和OpenAI的合作，以及AMD和OpenAI的合作，你就可以看出来英伟达有多强。英伟达是投资1000个亿，但是是给它芯片，拿它的股份；AMD是我给你芯片，我给你股份求求你用用我。现在所有的人都想用别的芯片，是因为他们恐惧英伟达的垄断，太贵了，要花好多的钱，在军备竞赛的这些大厂，AI要赶上去你都得去买芯片。所以大家非常的希望再拱出一家来，因为半导体一旦同质化，价格一下就下来了。但没有办法做到这一点，所以英伟达确实是厉害，然后我也看了一下黄仁勋很多视频，这个人我也很欣赏，他十多年前讲的东西和今天讲的东西是一样的，他早就看到了，一直在朝那个方向做。所以你现在就不得不去想，他现在讲的东西依然是他对未来的认同，所以我觉得投一点看看吧，AI这个东西我觉得至少掺和一下，不要错过了。完全错过了，好像有点不太合适。",[827,2050,2051,2053],{},[830,2052,832],{},"：你认为AI是一个有需求的东西，像英伟达这样的公司，在这个行业里面，它的竞争力是有一定的可持续性？",[827,2055,2056,2058],{},[830,2057,838],{},"：至少目前还是这么认为。",[827,2060,2061,2063],{},[830,2062,832],{},"：如果它是一个同质化的、没有持续性的，你就不会考虑投资它？",[827,2065,2066,2068],{},[830,2067,838],{},"：当然不会。我以前是觉得半导体很难做的，所以我不会在英特尔上面亏钱，因为我没有碰过，我以前也没有投过半导体，这也是我错过英伟达的一个很重要的原因。其实我早就看到，但是没有关注，直到这两年AI起来了以后，以前是觉得就是偶尔的、被炒起来的一个东西，我现在觉得不像是炒起来，仔细关注关注很有意思，这家公司真的蛮有意思。",[827,2070,2071,2073],{},[830,2072,832],{},"：可能对包括像台积电这样的企业，你也有一些兴趣？",[827,2075,2076,2078],{},[830,2077,838],{},"：台积电其实我早就知道，因为我们原来拿芯片是从台联电，台积电是不会直接供芯片的，它是做代工的，它只是帮人加工芯片。30多年前我就跟台联电说，你们做芯片是做不过台积电的，因为它们是专注在做那个，台联电那个时候又做代工，又做自己的芯片，又开发各种各样的产品，我说你长期是做不过它们的。不幸而言中，你看台积电和台联电现在的天地之差，台联电的代工没有看见它有什么特别厉害的地方，现在都听不见了，不知道它们在做什么。",[827,2080,2081,2082,2085,2086,2089],{},"所以我其实很早就知道它们，只是说这个行当我不懂，我觉得他们很重资产，但是现在发现了，半导体AI的这种起飞法，好像谁都逃不过台积电，它把所有人都干掉。以前我们还要去找",[830,2083,2084],{},"三星","，包括最早",[830,2087,2088],{},"IBM","也很厉害，英特尔也做很多芯片，现在这些人一找代工都是去找台积电。我觉得这个还是有点意思，所以我也买了一些，但最近这个价格涨得太离谱了。离谱归离谱，也没有那么贵，如果未来的发展真的像黄仁勋讲的那个样子，它现在的价格是有道理的。",[827,2091,2092,2094],{},[830,2093,832],{},"：也是因为这样，你在这些公司上的投入的力度是有限的？",[827,2096,2097,2099,2100,2102,2103,2105],{},[830,2098,838],{},"：没有到我投",[830,2101,1531],{},"那样。投",[830,2104,1531],{},"我投最高的时候，投到90几个点，就是一直买一直买一直买，每次掉我都买。当然现在我也卖了一些，因为我会卖点call什么的，它有时候就call走了，一涨就call走，call走就call走了，我也可以买点别的。",[827,2107,2108,2110],{},[830,2109,832],{},"：我们从英伟达和台积电这样的公司延伸出去，商业创新尤其是技术进步，它会创造很多新的商业，发掘新的需求。它也会摧毁一些老的商业，通常创新对企业会有很高的需求，甚至会有一些运气方面的需求，他们是创新成功的幸运者。那也有一些公司，处在不需要那么多创新的一个行业里面，这两个相比，你更倾向于哪一种？",[827,2112,2113,2115,2116,2118,2119,907,2121,2123,2124,2126],{},[830,2114,838],{},"：倾向于我能看懂，倾向于我觉得它未来赚到的钱是匹配我的投资",[904,2117,115],{"href":1922},"的。你看我也买",[830,2120,1542],{},[830,2122,1542],{},"这个公司就是不要变，就怕来个新的CEO，他东搞搞西搞搞，到目前为止还好了，万变不敢离其宗了。你不要把53度飞天给变了，所以国营企业在这点上是有好处的。我听说像有些民营企业，比如老干妈，我不知道是真是假，我听网上说儿子上来就把配方给变了，这种事在",[830,2125,1542],{},"可不敢有，很危险。你好好的为什么要变，创新其实就是用户需求，需要变你就变，不需要变就不要变。",[827,2128,2129,2130,2132,2133,2136],{},"科技行业必须得创新，因为新的东西会出来，会满足更多的用户需求，你要不变就死了。",[830,2131,1542],{},"的口味已经形成了，你再去改口味那就是脑袋坏了，肯定不应该这样。你想",[830,2134,2135],{},"可口可乐","它们也会改变一下口味，但是原来的口味是一定要保留的，它只是会因为健康的原因或者其他原因加一些新的东西。",[827,2138,2139,2141],{},[830,2140,832],{},"：从搞懂的角度，这两种里，是不是要搞懂一家需要创新的企业会更难一些？",[827,2143,2144,2146,2147,2149,2150,2152,2153,2155,2156,2158,2159,2161],{},[830,2145,838],{},"：其实搞懂",[830,2148,1542],{},"也不容易，每个人不一样，你看多少人搞不懂",[830,2151,1542],{},"，也很多人搞不懂",[830,2154,1531],{},"。我也搞不懂英伟达，也没搞懂",[830,2157,1343],{},"，其实我一直都很喜欢",[830,2160,1343],{},"，但是就是搞不懂，我现在有点懂了。但又开始担心了，搜索的生意会在多大的程度上被AI取代？像ChatGPT，包括Gemini本身，会取代多少搜索，我不知道。但是我总的来讲，我觉得这家公司还是挺好的，所以我前段时间还买了一些。",[827,2163,2164,2166],{},[830,2165,832],{},"：要搞懂不变的东西，或者搞懂创新的东西，其实都挺难？",[827,2168,2169,2171],{},[830,2170,838],{},"：当然，搞懂什么都难，但是再难也没有高尔夫难。",[827,2173,2174,2176],{},[830,2175,832],{},"：特斯拉这个公司，你这些年对它的看法是不是也有些变化？",[827,2178,2179,2181],{},[830,2180,838],{},"：没有什么本质的变化，确实觉得埃隆·马斯克这个人厉害，他有很多想法，也确实是很先进的。但是投资我觉得比较难，从个人的角度来讲，我不是很喜欢这个人的品行。你投资实际上是在跟他做朋友，我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干。所以我没有那么喜欢这件事情，但是我认识到他确实是厉害。",[827,2183,2184,2186],{},[830,2185,832],{},"：你觉得他的生意怎么样？",[827,2188,2189,2191,2192,2194,2195,2197],{},[830,2190,838],{},"：电动车这个生意不会太好，会很累，它",[904,2193,146],{"href":1256},"很小。但是特斯拉的电动车，它是做出了",[904,2196,146],{"href":1256},"的，大部分电动车的生意我觉得会很艰苦，特斯拉总体来讲确实做得好，你看它款式也少，对吧？东西很单一，量又很大，那它相对来讲，成本就会低，它是很可能有钱赚。",[827,2199,2200],{},"我很早就在博客上写过特斯拉，我最早是很喜欢特斯拉的，你看我的车牌都是“我们爱特斯拉”。后来就看马斯克那些事，我就觉得有点不太喜欢这个人，加上我买了他们车以后，看服务各方面，好多我没那么满意的东西，又把股票也卖了。当然这是个错误的决策，我可能应该留着，但是我觉得很难，确实很难。我真的没有那么喜欢这个人，但是我尊重他，我觉得他确实有很多东西是做得很了不起的，尤其是SpaceX，那个太牛了，非常厉害，而且星链也很厉害。电动车我不知道，我觉得就那么回事吧，我不是很喜欢特斯拉车，但是我喜欢它的星链，我是它的客户，然后你看SpaceX，我觉得确实也是厉害的。马斯克是个牛人。毫无疑问，肯定比我牛太多了，但这不意味着我一定要喜欢他。",[827,2202,2203,2205],{},[830,2204,832],{},"：老巴说不要投资四个轮子的生意，你觉得电动车或者现在大家搞的智能驾驶会改变四个轮子的生意本质吗？",[827,2207,2208,2210,2211,2213,2214,2216],{},[830,2209,838],{},"：很难。电动车比汽油车要简单，就是一个电机，然后什么形状其实它都可以做，最后势必慢慢价格竞争会越来越多，当然如果你真的打得就剩一、两个牌子的时候，它们可能达成默契，还是有钱赚的。智能驾驶这个东西，如果每个人都自己搞，其实也很累。我不知道，我不在这个行当里头，我是觉得也可能将来大家都用",[830,2212,1343],{},"的方案，或者是用某几家的方案，那最后大家也是同质化的，大家的东西都差不多，最后就赚个平均利润。不是说就没有钱赚，因为没有很好的",[904,2215,146],{"href":1256},"，所以也很难有很好的利润。",[827,2218,2219],{},"大家要是卷的话，卷到什么程度不知道，一定是要卷完了，剩下的人才能够赚钱，现在我不知道有多少家企业在做电动车，就像我们当年做游戏机一样，可能有几百家，卷到最后就剩几家，那几家是赚钱的，但这几百家都是要倒的。所以你现在看到的电动车大部分都会死掉，这个我可以肯定，谁会活下来我不知道。",[827,2221,2222,2224],{},[830,2223,832],{},"：你总体上倾向于无论是电动还是智能化，它并没有改变这个行业的根本特征？",[827,2226,2227,2229,2230,2232],{},[830,2228,838],{},"：我不知道电动车是不是真的能够节能，能够环保。我其实一直都没有搞清楚这件事情，因为你从宏观、从长远的角度来讲，电池本身是一个不太环保的东西，所以我不是很清楚，生产电的过程就很难讲了。当然你要太阳能真的使用得很好，可能电动车真的会变得特别有益；如果将来真的人类实现了核聚变发电，那确实它是有意义的，但是我没有很深入的研究过。如果真是那样，那汽油车就活不下去，汽油车就很难了。但是电动车之间，它们会依然继续卷下去，它们的",[904,2231,146],{"href":1256},"是比汽油车要小的。",[827,2234,2235,2237],{},[830,2236,832],{},"：无法改变这个行业的强竞争的特征？",[827,2239,2240,2242,2243,2245],{},[830,2241,838],{},"：汽车行业的竞争没有比方说太阳能硅片的竞争那么强烈，也没有航空公司的竞争那么强烈，因为航空公司就是A到B，你是出100块，那我就也顶多就卖100块，它没有什么",[904,2244,146],{"href":1256},"，最后就是靠航线垄断。当然，你也没有办法真的垄断一个航线，因为政府总是会多给两条航线让你们来竞争，汽车也是一样的。",[827,2247,2248,2250],{},[830,2249,832],{},"：现在像特斯拉这样的公司，它花了很多的精力去做另外一项业务，就是人形机器人，你觉得这个东西是有商业价值的吗？",[827,2252,2253,2255],{},[830,2254,838],{},"：你家里配几个机器人，连保姆都不用请了，那当然好对不对，还可以提供情绪价值，多好啊。能不能做到，有人觉得肯定可以，所以就去赌，我一般不会，我觉得除非我真的看懂了，真的能做到，我不是太理解为什么要有人形机器人，因为机器人是不需要人形的，是不是人形并不重要。炒菜机器人为什么要长得像个保姆呢，当然它如果能够做到，又没有什么代价，那也许是有道理的，因为人有人的好处，它两条腿走路灵活很多，你要是四个轮子的话，有很多地方可能去不了。但是你是不是要有头我就不知道了，我想像当中是没有必要的，你可以有四肢你可以有八肢，你好多个手都可以。",[827,2257,2258,2260,2261,2263,2264,2266,2267,2269],{},[830,2259,832],{},"：我再问一个最老的公司——",[830,2262,1535],{},"，老巴刚刚退休，它过去算是基业长青的公司了，现在也有很多持有它的股票的人，有一个用户叫“江畔初月初照人”，他问，",[830,2265,1460],{},"退休了，",[830,2268,1535],{},"这个公司能不能基业长青？",[827,2271,2272,2274,2275,2277,2278,2281,2282,2284,2285,2287],{},[830,2273,838],{},"：那他可能对这家公司完全不了解。第一，老巴买的这些公司都在；第二，接班人对于他的文化是承接的，他们都是在努力的找未来",[904,2276,88],{"href":1497},"好的公司，这一点是不会变的。至于说这个接班人的水平怎么样，老巴有犯错误的时候，但老巴找的人也不会说差到哪里去，它这个文化是不会变的，它们不会是一家",[904,2279,125],{"href":2280},"\u002Ftouji","的公司，你拿着",[830,2283,1535],{},"哈撒韦，肯定比随便买一个共同基金要好。你有什么好选的呢？你如果不懂投资，那就应该买像",[830,2286,1535],{},"哈撒韦这样的公司，或者像标普500指数这样的，一定是比买基金好。你知道它们是谁，你知道它们的历史。你买这个可能比黑石比其它要好，长期来讲它的回报很可能是比他们要高。",[827,2289,2290,2292],{},[830,2291,832],{},"：你觉得老巴的公司能持续之前的优势的概率是大的？",[827,2294,2295,2297,2298,2300],{},[830,2296,838],{},"：我觉得他们的方式方法，他们的思维方式是成立的，至于说他们能不能够跑赢标普500指数不知道。我也专门跟老巴聊过这个事，你觉得你未来还可以跑赢标普500指数吗，他说非常难，但是他觉得可能可以跑赢一点点，他就是喜欢做这件事，不然他就买标普500指数，他就彻底不管了就完了。所以他们的",[904,2299,115],{"href":1922},"就是标普500指数，所以他们只有在觉得可以跑赢标普500指数的时候才会出手，不然他就不干了，不然他就买标普500指数就好了。",[827,2302,2303,2304,2306,2307,2309,2310,2312],{},"可简单的一件事，我是这样想的，哪天我真的决定不打算做投资了，或者说我传给小孩的时候发现我某个孩子是不懂投资的，你也没办法搞懂，不懂的人，你有时候你是没办法的，你就给他买标普500指数就好，或者是买",[830,2305,1535],{},"哈撒韦。我有个朋友过世了，他的孩子就跟我讲，他就是买了一半的标普500指数，买了一半的",[830,2308,1535],{},"哈撒韦。这就对了，这安排挺好的，然后他们就不操心了，他们也不管你市场怎么怎么样，反正他们就过自己的小日子就好了，因为标普500指数有分红，那一半的股票的分红足够他们花了。",[830,2311,1535],{},"哈撒韦就拿着，这样他会省好多心。",[827,2314,2315,2317],{},[830,2316,832],{},"：再问一个大家更关心的公司——拼多多，你之前说对它是有风险投资的，最新其实你也是有增仓的，现在还是风险投资吗？",[827,2319,2320,2322],{},[830,2321,838],{},"：还是，但我懂得多一点了。我其实曾经卖掉过很大的部位，又差不多都买回来了，我觉得这公司还是有点意思，但是有风险的，我不推荐别人买。",[827,2324,2325,2327],{},[830,2326,832],{},"：你说你又买回来，你觉得更懂了一点，你觉得懂了是什么部分？",[827,2329,2330,2332],{},[830,2331,838],{},"：人家赚的钱摆在那儿了，财报你都能看见了，如果它能够维持这个生意，它是很便宜的。问题是我不知道它是不是真的能够维持，有什么样的东西会影响到它，但是我对他们整个文化、整个团队，我是信任的，但是大环境我不知道。",[827,2334,2335,2337],{},[830,2336,832],{},"：有一个用户叫“张浩_”，他问，5到10年之后的拼多多，你现在没有办法建立一个清晰的预期？",[827,2339,2340,2342,2343,2345,2346,2348],{},[830,2341,838],{},"：我觉得大概率他们应该活得还不错，但是不是百分之一百。我觉得",[830,2344,1531],{},"我可以说，我很肯定的知道",[830,2347,1531],{},"还会活得很好，拼多多我没有那么清晰。我觉得这个行当的变化其实也很大，但是它存在一种可能性，就是它会比现在还要厉害很多，风投就是这个意思，对不对？如果不是风投，我就应该买很大的比重在里头，我并没有，但是我觉得是值得拥有一部分。",[827,2350,2351,2353,2354,2356,2357,2359,2360,2362],{},[830,2352,832],{},"：你对团队的认可其实是增加了一定程度的你投资它的确定性，你的中国公司里面比较大的持仓是",[830,2355,1542],{},"这个公司，你经常说白酒分两种，",[830,2358,1542],{},"和其他，你能说一说",[830,2361,1542],{},"和其他的区别是什么吗？",[827,2364,2365,2367,2368,2370,2371,2373,2374,2376,2377,2379],{},[830,2366,838],{},"：跟不喝酒的人说",[830,2369,1542],{},"不是好怪吗？喜欢喝",[830,2372,1542],{},"的人，他喜欢那个口味，他习惯了。要跟一个不喜欢、不喝",[830,2375,1542],{},"的人，你就没办法讲那个事情，就像跟鱼讲路上行走的乐趣，如何讲？没有办法。但是它是一个事实，就是说喜欢喝",[830,2378,1542],{},"的人，他们一直在喝，只要他们能喝，喝得起，有条件喝，就这么简单。",[827,2381,2382,2384,2385,2387],{},[830,2383,832],{},"：你的核心是",[830,2386,1542],{},"的独特的口味和它的目标消费者对这个独特口味的认同？",[827,2389,2390,2392,2393,2395,2396,907],{},[830,2391,838],{},"：最重要它有没有一个文化可以维持这个东西。它如果把这个出品的文化改了，多干快上、多快好省，那它是要出问题的。我觉得",[830,2394,1542],{},"到目前为止还好，我没有看到这样的问题，我觉得他们对那些最基本的品质标准坚持得很严，所以我还是可以蛮放心的，我们确实有蛮多",[830,2397,1542],{},[827,2399,2400,2402],{},[830,2401,832],{},"：你觉得它能维系这个口味吗？",[827,2404,2405,2407],{},[830,2406,838],{},"：它是国营企业，国营企业有国营企业的好处，我在国营企业也待过，这些规矩不太有人敢改，太多的人盯着。所以我觉得他们应该是可以走很远。",[827,2409,2410,2412],{},[830,2411,832],{},"：茅台你认为稳定性很强，比如说它估值非常贵，我举个例子，50倍市盈率，你觉得你会把它卖掉吗？",[827,2414,2415,2417,2418,2420,2421,2423],{},[830,2416,838],{},"：市盈率是讲的在某一个时刻，比方说它搞一个单笔冲销某个东西，当前的市盈率可能会突然上去对吧。决定投资不是由市盈率来决定的，是由你未来的",[904,2419,88],{"href":1497},"来决定。我不能跟你讲，它市盈率要是到了50倍我就要卖，当然如果它是正常的情况下，它就是疯涨到了50倍，比方说今天的",[830,2422,1542],{},"的价格，突然再涨个三倍，那我可能也是会想卖。其实2600、2700块的时候我可想卖了，因为觉得相对来讲那个时点是贵的，我当时最犹豫最犹豫的就是，我们的仓位太大了，我卖了以后我买什么？我就开始折磨自己，然后放眼看去我什么都买不下手。",[827,2425,2426,2427,2429],{},"有人可能会说，现在掉下来了，你要卖了就好了。卖的那些人，不是亏得更多吗？因为你买了别的。我敢保证大部分人是更亏的，除非你卖了以后就一直拿着现金到今天，那你确实牛；我做不到，我是一个满仓主义者，我不买一个股票拿着，我心里头就会不舒服。拿着现金是一件很难受的事情，你存银行里差一点几个点利息，你不难受，你不得买点啥，买完不就都亏了。你还不如拿着",[830,2428,1542],{},"，知道它早晚会回来，我可真的就是想通了这个问题。当然了，事后诸葛亮，你也没想到它会一下掉那么多，从2600掉到1200块，掉了50%，其实是没多少。一个股票，你要是扛不住掉50%，你就不应该买。我觉得是OK的，所以我们后来其实还买了不少，我们其实有闲钱会一直买。",[827,2431,2432,2434,2435,2437,2440],{},[830,2433,832],{},"：2021年的时候，大概2600块的时候，从未来",[904,2436,88],{"href":1497},[904,2438,97],{"href":2439},"\u002Fzhexian","的角度来说，你不能说那个价格是很有吸引力的，是吧？",[827,2442,2443,2445,2446,2448,2449,2451,2452,2454],{},[830,2444,838],{},"：其实就是取决于你的",[904,2447,115],{"href":1922},"，我卖掉了以后钱放在哪，我并不能够得到更高的回报。其实它的分红还是比利息高，所以你就拿着，我并没有亏。股价上，大家觉得如果我要是当时卖掉，我不就多赚了？投资不能这么想，投资这么想你早就卖掉，那些2600块的时候觉得该卖的人，可能1200块就卖掉，所以他们拿不到那个时候；拿到那个时候，他可能将来会拿到3000、4000块都是有可能的。我觉得",[830,2450,1542],{},"将来一定会回来，但是什么时候我不知道，可能五年十年，没有人知道。关键这个钱如果不放在",[830,2453,1542],{},"上，必须要有个地方去。那去哪里？这个很重要，你要回答不了这个问题，其实讨论投资都是瞎扯。",[827,2456,2457,2459,2460,2462,2464,2465,2467],{},[830,2458,832],{},"：如果当时有个你认为可以无缝切过去的，将来自由",[904,2461,88],{"href":1497},[904,2463,97],{"href":2439},"比",[830,2466,1542],{},"好的标的，其实你是会换的？",[827,2469,2470,2472,2473,2476,2477,2479,2480,2482,2483,2485,2486,2488,2489,2491],{},[830,2471,838],{},"：当然会，投资是要卖的，我觉得很多人对所谓的",[904,2474,58],{"href":2475},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","有个很大的误解就是，你要",[904,2478,120],{"href":2012},"，就不可以卖了。",[904,2481,120],{"href":2012},"是一个意向，我买的那个刹那我是打算",[904,2484,120],{"href":2012},"的，但是你永远要算你的",[904,2487,115],{"href":1922},"。如果你发现一个更好的公司，你觉得更踏实，比方说五年前看懂了英伟达，你看到了今天这样的局面，你手里只有",[830,2490,1542],{},"，如果能够换的话，你没有道理不换。但你也看不懂，你就不要扯这个事，那就跟你没关系。",[827,2493,2494,2496,2497,2499],{},[830,2495,832],{},"：有个叫“稻妻浪子”的用户问了一个跟酒有直接关系的问题，他说同为高度酒，为什么威士忌、伏特加可以在中国流行，五粮液、",[830,2498,1542],{},"却没办法在国外流行，中国白酒有国际化的机会吗？",[827,2501,2502,2504,2505,2507,2508,2510,2511,2513,2514,2516,2517,907],{},[830,2503,838],{},"：我不知道，我觉得",[830,2506,1542],{},"是肯定有的，中国白酒，我都说",[830,2509,1542],{},"和白酒是两个东西，",[830,2512,1542],{},"就是中国人所到之处，很多人喝",[830,2515,1542],{},"，他们到了这儿也喝",[830,2518,1542],{},[827,2520,2521,2522,2524,2525,2527,2528,2530,2531,2533,2534,2536,2537,2539,2540,2542],{},"酒是一个很长久的文化的东西，你如何能够让大家喝",[830,2523,1542],{},"？外国人可能都没听说过。但是中国人都听过威士忌，喝威士忌的人也都是商务人士，我是宁愿喝威士忌，我也不喝",[830,2526,1542],{},"，因为好的威士忌它要柔一些，",[830,2529,1542],{},"对我来讲还是有点冲，但是你看我们三十年庆的时候，我们晚餐就有30年的",[830,2532,1542],{},"，那个还是挺好。我家里有些30年的",[830,2535,1542],{},"，十几年前我买",[830,2538,1542],{},"的时候我买了一批酒，其中一批30年的",[830,2541,1542],{},"存到今天。偶尔会有朋友来的时候，开个一瓶两瓶的，确实很柔很不错的。",[827,2544,2545,2547,2548,2550],{},[830,2546,832],{},"：有一个叫“非完全进化体”的用户问，投资",[830,2549,1542],{},"需不需要看宏观的环境？",[827,2552,2553,2555,2556,2558,2559,2561],{},[830,2554,838],{},"：我不觉得需要。投资本来你就是看十年、二十年，当然如果宏观环境一直都不太好，那你投别的也很惨。这个其实并没有区别，还是取决于你这个钱放在哪里，像",[830,2557,1542],{},"现在这种情况，放在那里股息可能都能拿到你目前投资的3%、4%了，肯定比放银行好，当然比亏在别的地方会更好。但",[830,2560,1542],{},"会不会再掉，完全有可能，那你要有钱就继续买，当然我也不想买成他们的大股东，他们也不想卖给我，对不对？但是多买一点我总是可以的吧。",[822,2563,2565],{"id":2564},"_04-聊-ai","04 聊 AI",[827,2567,2568,2570],{},[830,2569,832],{},"：有一个叫“于扬”的用户问，对AI的看法是什么，是一个泡沫还是再一次的工业革命？",[827,2572,2573,2575],{},[830,2574,838],{},"：它肯定是个工业革命，但是泡沫总是会伴随而来。泡沫的特征就是人人都跟着一起涨，凡事只要一说AI，大家就冲进去买。但是最后会有一些公司，它确实会很厉害。这里有个量变到质变的过程，AI没有什么了不起的，AI就是计算机应用，它不是上了一个量级，而是上了一百个量级，一万个量级。它这么上，真的就改变了。",[827,2577,2578],{},"我记得计算机里还有讲算法，你要省空间，最后存储器起来了以后，空间变得就不那么重要了。但是你看到DeepSeek搞了个算法，可以让它更省成本。更省成本并不会让大家不需要算力，反而它会激发更多的算力。现在用AI的人越来越多，但英伟达也不会因此卖不动了，所以AI肯定是一个带来很大变化的东西。但是到底会带来什么样的大变化，我其实也没有完全搞懂。我就想工业革命的时候，比方说蒸汽机出来有了机器，慢慢就有了工厂，就把农民赶到工厂里头去了，生产效率大幅度提高，GDP确实就提高了。后来又有了比方说汽车、飞机，大家的活动范围又扩大了，GDP也随之提高。",[827,2580,2581,2582,2584],{},"但是AI到底会怎么样，我现在不知道，但是我知道很多人的工作会出问题。我以前要看一家新公司，不容易搞懂，现在可容易了，你只要找AI问一个问题，它后面会跟几个问题。你一个一个问，可能一个小时或半个小时，你就对一个完全不知道的公司有个大致的了解，然后我可以决定是不是要再深入了解，这个效率太高了。再想想医疗，那些做药物研究的人、做医疗研究的人，以前可能需要一个团队搞好几年，现在可能一个人花两天就搞完了。AI将来不确定会带来什么样的变化，非常恐怖。可能还有很多，像现在你连动画到底是真人还是假的都分不清，那电影行业的人是不是就很难受？作家们估计也会难受，要模仿",[830,2583,832],{},"的口吻写一篇小说，它真能写出来。虽然模仿人的发言，它可能做得不完美，但它能做到有点像。不过，投资这件事它还是无法取代的。",[827,2586,2587,2589],{},[830,2588,832],{},"：AI 对投资行业可能有什么影响？",[827,2591,2592,2594,2595,2597,2598,2600,2601,2603],{},[830,2593,838],{},"：炒股票的人会很危险，因为你炒不过梁文锋了，这个早就发现了，所以你全是韭菜。想通过看图看线去炒股赚钱的人，你就是铁铁的韭菜。但是收割不了我，因为我就不动，买了",[830,2596,1542],{},"我就拿着了。因为买公司这句话很少有人懂，真正的公司的买家只有一个人，就是公司本身，它是靠它的盈利，最后会把自己买回来。但是它的衍生状态有很多种，所以只要公司最后赚钱，赚到你淹到脖子的时候，它就不得不买回来。",[830,2599,1542],{},"也有这个问题，最后它不得不分红，分红你自己买或者它回购。我觉得",[830,2602,1542],{},"早就应该回购了，它终于开始回购一点点，实在没办法，钱多了不好受的。它不知道这些钱该花到哪儿，干脆就买自己股票，趁它便宜。",[827,2605,2606,2608],{},[830,2607,832],{},"：你的意思是说可以看到AI对炒股是有很大的影响的，对投资可能影响没那么大？",[827,2610,2611,2613],{},[830,2612,838],{},"：投资没有影响，它不影响我做的决策。你要是通过看图看线做日内交易，大概率你会比以前更难赚到钱。一些量化基金，它们速度非常快，确实是电脑在操作，有人工干预，所以你就更打不过它们。因此，我觉得小散户要想靠短线赚点钱，大概率来说，时间长了会发现很难成功。",[827,2615,2616,2618],{},[830,2617,832],{},"：现在关于AI行业有个很大的争议，通过AI来提高效率，它到底是一种减员增效，还是它能创造新的需求、新的场景和新的GDP的增量？",[827,2620,2621,2623],{},[830,2622,838],{},"：我不知道。我觉得它可以创造GDP的增量，但它也会在某些地方减员，肯定会有人被替代，但并不是所有人都会被减掉。所以我觉得每个人可能都要很认真的对待这件事情，不要说自己学不会，其实是可以学会的。我都可以学，你为什么就不能学？我认为AI会对每个人产生影响，不论是大人还是小孩。我看过很多人四十多岁以后就觉得自己不能够再接受新东西了，其实那样我觉得他的日子会过得很痛苦、很难受，新东西有时候还是挺好玩的。",[827,2625,2626,2628],{},[830,2627,832],{},"：但是它怎么样创造增量，你现在是不是也没有那么清晰？",[827,2630,2631,2633,2634,1604,2636,2639,2640,2642],{},[830,2632,838],{},"：至少很多公司现在增量已经明显地出来了。但是这个增量是来自于其他人减下来的吗，我不知道。你看 Meta、",[830,2635,1343],{},[830,2637,2638],{},"微软","、甲骨文和 Adobe 这些公司，它们都明显有增量，包括",[830,2641,1546],{},"，AI 开始用了以后，广告效率等很多东西一下就起来了。它确实提高了效率，而且可能还省了人力了。至于生产安装线，我不知道，我没有办法去想所有的行业，因为这个问题很大，这个问题当然也是我想知道的。我前两天还专门跟一个获过诺贝尔奖的经济学家聊过，他说他也看不懂，觉得这是一件很神秘的事情。但是我觉得大概率它是会增加的，像工业革命一样，它提高了效率，很有可能增加 GDP。",[827,2644,2645,2647],{},[830,2646,832],{},"：回顾过往的话，凡是提高效率的东西，长期来看都会产生增量吗？",[827,2649,2650,2652],{},[830,2651,838],{},"：我想不出反例。效率提高了，整个GDP下来了，好像不太可能。你说某个人的GDP下来了，那是太有可能了，可能是你丢了工作，收入没了。火车出现后，马车夫失业了，但火车显然创造了更多的价值，载运量和速度大幅度提高，生意范围也扩大了。所以我猜，应该是可以产生增量的。",[822,2654,2656],{"id":2655},"_05-聊教育","05 聊教育",[827,2658,2659,2661],{},[830,2660,832],{},"：有个叫“辰義承”的用户，他想问一个关于孩子教育的事情，在子女教育方面，父母能做什么？",[827,2663,2664,2666],{},[830,2665,838],{},"：父母做的所有的事情，就是为了给孩子增加安全感。反过来，降低安全感的事情就不应该做，比如打孩子、呵斥孩子。你说你不打，他就不听话，你要找别的办法。我觉得孩子们不需要靠打，打出来的孩子可能更孝顺，那是吓的，养成习惯了，但是对他一辈子的发展其实是不好的，他会不开心。当然有些家长根本就不在乎孩子开不开心，想做什么做什么，我觉得爱孩子的人不应该那样。但不是意味着可以溺爱孩子，没有原则的，他要什么就给什么。确实是有一些边界的东西不好把握，但是真的要花功夫去做这件事。",[827,2668,2669,2671],{},[830,2670,832],{},"：你有个不为清单，不要做伤害孩子的安全感事情，这是清楚的？",[827,2673,2674,2676],{},[830,2675,838],{},"：我觉得这个很重要。因为家长给孩子做的所有的事情，其实都是在教他怎么做事情。你骂他就是教他骂人；你打他就是教他将来可以打孩子；你跟他发脾气就表示他可以发脾气；你对他好就表示他应该对人好。孩子永远是有脾气的，而且孩子是可以在某一个时刻用他的语言表达情绪。比如说，“我不爱你了，爸爸”，他可能只是在某一时刻不高兴了，你不要把它当真，觉得他真的不爱你。这个时候，你不需要计较，别和他正面冲突，转移一下注意力，过会儿他可能又会说“我爱你”。关键是不要和孩子杠上了。",[827,2678,2679,2681],{},[830,2680,832],{},"：我了解到你在教育方面是做了一些公益的投入的？",[827,2683,2684,2686],{},[830,2685,838],{},"：是的，很多地方都做了。",[827,2688,2689,2691],{},[830,2690,832],{},"：你觉得你在做公益的过程中，对教育的看法有什么变化吗？",[827,2693,2694,2696],{},[830,2695,838],{},"：我也见过很多，比方说我跟小孩做球童，我看过很多家长做球童的时候，孩子打不好球会发脾气，马上骂孩子：“你怎么这个球都打不好？”其实这时候孩子最需要支持，他已经很生气了。我的观点是，这时候我会抱抱他，拍拍他。有时候他不理你，就等一会儿，过一会儿他就好了。你不能每时每刻都要求他听你的话。",[827,2698,2699],{},"我记得以前我儿子哭的时候，我会说：“不要哭了，不要哭了，男孩子哭什么哭？”他会说：“爸爸，你就让我哭一下嘛。”我想，孩子说得对，为什么不让他哭呢？让他哭一会儿就好了，没什么问题，不能和孩子对抗。打孩子更不好，打孩子解决不了问题。我也打过孩子，想试试看能不能管用，结果发现完全不管用。于是我赶紧跟儿子道歉，说：“爸爸错了，爸爸以后永远不会再打你。”我确实再也没有打过孩子，我不觉得那是个好的办法，现在我们关系也挺好。",[827,2701,2702,2704],{},[830,2703,832],{},"：你觉得教育在一个人的人生发展或者成功的路上，它到底有多大作用？",[827,2706,2707,2709,2710,2712],{},[830,2708,838],{},"：我觉得教育当然是非常有用的。受过良好教育的人和完全没有受过教育的人完全不一样，甚至你从眼神、从面相上就能看出来。我可以举个简单的例子，记得以前在",[830,2711,1026],{},"招人的时候，有个人拿着华南理工大学的文凭来找工作，那时候叫华南工学院，无线电系毕业。我从进门就看出来了，我说他不像读过书的人，不像上过大学。我也不能直接质疑人家，人家文凭都在。我就说：“你们第一年都上过什么课？”他说：“数学、物理、化学。”我说那是中学的课，你就没上过大学，上过大学不会这么回答这个问题。当然他是大专毕业，可能不一定看得出来。如果你没上过大专或大学，真的是装不出来的，有个文凭没有用。从进门就觉得，“这个人怎么会来呢？”然后问了个很奇怪的问题，我一下就问倒了他。你没上过大学，我们是招工程师的，这个工作你上去就露馅了，肯定啥都不懂。他说“我想找份工作”，那你找别的工作呀，这个肯定不行，找份保安都行。",[827,2714,2715],{},"但是确实有这样的人，拿假文凭，但是这个人肯定是不动脑筋的，你要拿个假文凭，你也不要拿这个。所以我觉得教育，尤其是学习能力很重要。学校里并不都教这些东西，小镇做题家通过做题，可能有些人就学到这些东西。我也是小镇做题家出来的。当年我确实做了很多题，那时候因为没有书，也没有地方学，我们的情况比较特殊。后来可能会好一些。我觉得做题确实很有帮助，但不是每个人都会悟出来。同样做题，很多人做死了。我觉得你要从中找到方法，从你犯的错误中找到原因，这样才能学到整个逻辑。",[822,2717,2719],{"id":2718},"_06-聊愿望","06 聊愿望",[827,2721,2722,2724],{},[830,2723,832],{},"：有一个叫“别犹豫别后悔”的用户问，你未来还有哪些愿望想要实现？",[827,2726,2727,2729],{},[830,2728,838],{},"：我这个人本来就胸无大志的，我就过好每一天就挺好。未来的愿望也是过好每一天，做自己喜欢的事情，其实没什么了不起的。我从来不是一个要干点大事的人。我每天都在干点事情，那就是做你自己享受的事情，做你自己能够喜欢的事情，我觉得很重要。而且因为你喜欢，你才能做得好。不能倒过来说因为你现在成功了，所以你才这么讲。不是的，不要把本末倒了，因为我在做自己喜欢的事情，所以我会很认真的做，所以我就做好。经营公司也是一样，我找到同样喜欢的人，我可以交给他们来做，我还可以做自己喜欢的其他的事情。经营企业我已经享受过了，我觉得确实挺好玩，但那确实也挺累的。",[827,2731,2732,2734],{},[830,2733,832],{},"：你对普通人的投资有什么建议？",[827,2736,2737,2739],{},[830,2738,838],{},"：没什么建议。我觉得投资就是投资，跟你是什么人没有关系，你不是好好的投，最后还不如不投。你要是真不懂投资，就不要碰。炒股是很难赚钱的，大部分散户在牛市和熊市都亏钱，80%左右，所以你不要觉得自己是特殊的那个人，除非你知道自己在做什么。现在就更难了，因为现在有了量化基金，虽然以前就有，但是现在它们更厉害，AI 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