[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2589},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1053,"library-sidebar-dao":2055,"library-sidebar-models":2357},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1039,"date":1040,"description":1041,"extension":1042,"meta":1043,"navigation":1044,"order":1045,"path":1046,"seo":1047,"seoDescription":1041,"seoTitle":1048,"slug":1049,"stem":1050,"__hash__":1051,"_collection":1052},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin.md","1965 巴菲特致合伙人信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1035},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,35,187,193,196,351,367,370,373,376,379,385,591,596,601,822,825,828,831,834,837,840,843,846,849,852,855,858,861,864,867,870,873,876,879,882,885,888,891,894,897,900,903,906,909,912,915,918,921,924,927,930,933,936,939,942,945,948,951,954,957,960,963,966,969,972,975,978,981,984,987,1002,1005,1008,1011],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1965-巴菲特致合伙人信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"1966 年 1 月 20 日",[10,18,19],{"id":19},"年业绩",[14,21,22],{},"1965 年，我们打赢了脱贫战（译注:1964 年美国总统林登·约翰逊在国情咨文中提出向贫穷开战 (War on Poverty)，当时美国的贫困率是 19%）。",[14,24,25],{},"我们年末的资产比年初多了 12,304,060 美元。",[14,27,28],{},"去年的信中有一段是“我们的目标”(注意，我写的不是“我们的承诺”)，我说我们追求的是“...扣除普通合伙人分成之前，巴菲特合伙基金平均每年领先指数 10 个百分点。合伙基金的领先优势会剧烈波动:在不利环境中可能落后 10 个百分点;在顺风顺水时可能领先 25 个百分点。”",[14,30,31],{},"去年刚定完目标，今年我们的业绩就偏离了目标，我的预测真是不靠谱。包含股息在内，道指的整体收益率是 14.2%，我们的整体收益率是 47.2%，这是巴菲特合伙基金成立以来取得的最大相对优势。我犯了错，大家都看到了，换了是谁，都会感到惭愧。以后应该不会有这样的事了。",[14,33,34],{},"下面是道指收益率、普通合伙人分成前合伙基金收益率(收益超过 6% 的部分，普通合伙人提取 25%)以及有限合伙人收益率的最新逐年对比情况。",[36,37,38,57],"table",{},[39,40,41],"thead",{},[42,43,44,48,51,54],"tr",{},[45,46,47],"th",{},"年份",[45,49,50],{},"道指整体收益率 (1)",[45,52,53],{},"合伙基金收益率 (2)",[45,55,56],{},"有限合伙人收益率 (3)",[58,59,60,75,89,103,117,131,145,159,173],"tbody",{},[42,61,62,66,69,72],{},[63,64,65],"td",{},"1957",[63,67,68],{},"-8.4%",[63,70,71],{},"10.4%",[63,73,74],{},"9.3%",[42,76,77,80,83,86],{},[63,78,79],{},"1958",[63,81,82],{},"38.5%",[63,84,85],{},"40.9%",[63,87,88],{},"32.2%",[42,90,91,94,97,100],{},[63,92,93],{},"1959",[63,95,96],{},"20.0%",[63,98,99],{},"25.9%",[63,101,102],{},"20.9%",[42,104,105,108,111,114],{},[63,106,107],{},"1960",[63,109,110],{},"-6.2%",[63,112,113],{},"22.8%",[63,115,116],{},"18.6%",[42,118,119,122,125,128],{},[63,120,121],{},"1961",[63,123,124],{},"22.4%",[63,126,127],{},"45.9%",[63,129,130],{},"35.9%",[42,132,133,136,139,142],{},[63,134,135],{},"1962",[63,137,138],{},"-7.6%",[63,140,141],{},"13.9%",[63,143,144],{},"11.9%",[42,146,147,150,153,156],{},[63,148,149],{},"1963",[63,151,152],{},"20.6%",[63,154,155],{},"38.7%",[63,157,158],{},"30.5%",[42,160,161,164,167,170],{},[63,162,163],{},"1964",[63,165,166],{},"18.7%",[63,168,169],{},"27.8%",[63,171,172],{},"22.3%",[42,174,175,178,181,184],{},[63,176,177],{},"1965",[63,179,180],{},"14.2%",[63,182,183],{},"47.2%",[63,185,186],{},"36.9%",[188,189,190],"blockquote",{},[14,191,192],{},"(1) 根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。\n(2) 1957-61 年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。\n(3) 1957-61 年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议，扣除了普通合伙人分成。",[14,194,195],{},"下表是累计收益率或复合收益率：",[36,197,198,213],{},[39,199,200],{},[42,201,202,204,207,210],{},[45,203,47],{},[45,205,206],{},"道指整体收益率",[45,208,209],{},"合伙基金收益率",[45,211,212],{},"有限合伙人收益率",[58,214,215,225,239,253,267,281,295,309,323,337],{},[42,216,217,219,221,223],{},[63,218,65],{},[63,220,68],{},[63,222,71],{},[63,224,74],{},[42,226,227,230,233,236],{},[63,228,229],{},"1957 – 58",[63,231,232],{},"26.9%",[63,234,235],{},"55.6%",[63,237,238],{},"44.5%",[42,240,241,244,247,250],{},[63,242,243],{},"1957 – 59",[63,245,246],{},"52.3%",[63,248,249],{},"95.9%",[63,251,252],{},"74.7%",[42,254,255,258,261,264],{},[63,256,257],{},"1957 – 60",[63,259,260],{},"42.9%",[63,262,263],{},"140.6%",[63,265,266],{},"107.2%",[42,268,269,272,275,278],{},[63,270,271],{},"1957 – 61",[63,273,274],{},"74.9%",[63,276,277],{},"251.0%",[63,279,280],{},"181.6%",[42,282,283,286,289,292],{},[63,284,285],{},"1957 – 62",[63,287,288],{},"61.6%",[63,290,291],{},"299.8%",[63,293,294],{},"215.1%",[42,296,297,300,303,306],{},[63,298,299],{},"1957 – 63",[63,301,302],{},"94.9%",[63,304,305],{},"454.5%",[63,307,308],{},"311.2%",[42,310,311,314,317,320],{},[63,312,313],{},"1957 - 64",[63,315,316],{},"131.3%",[63,318,319],{},"608.7%",[63,321,322],{},"402.9%",[42,324,325,328,331,334],{},[63,326,327],{},"1957 - 65",[63,329,330],{},"164.1%",[63,332,333],{},"943.2%",[63,335,336],{},"588.5%",[42,338,339,342,345,348],{},[63,340,341],{},"年化复合收益率",[63,343,344],{},"11.4%",[63,346,347],{},"29.8%",[63,349,350],{},"23.9%",[14,352,353,354,366],{},"去年收益率这么高，合伙人自然会问：“我们后面还有什么高招？”投资这行有一点不好，前一年强劲的势头对下一年基本没什么用。如果 1965 年通用汽车在国内上牌新车中占 54%，由于用户忠诚度、经销商能力、产量、品牌形象等因素，可以相当肯定地说，1966 年，通用汽车的销量应该和去年不相上下。我们的合伙基金不一样。每一年，发令枪一响，我们都一切按市值计算，从零开始",[355,356,357],"sup",{},[358,359,365],"a",{"href":360,"ariaDescribedBy":361,"dataFootnoteRef":363,"id":364},"#user-content-fn-1",[362],"footnote-label","","user-content-fnref-1","1","。1964 年和 1965 年，我们也努力了，但来到 1966 年，对于新老合伙人来说，我们过去的努力带不来多少收益。过去的赚钱方法和机会就是过去的，将来总要找新的方法和机会。",[14,368,369],{},"长期而言，我仍然希望我们能实现去年信中所说的“我们的目标”。（如需去年的年度信，请联系我们。）要是有人相信 1965 年的收益率能频繁出现，他们可能是在出席哈雷彗星观测者俱乐部的每周会议。亏损的年份，落后道指的年份，我们肯定会有。但是，我仍然相信我们将来的平均业绩能战胜道指。假如有一天，我认为我们达不到这个目标，我会立即告诉各位。",[10,371,372],{"id":372},"基金公司",[14,374,375],{},"我们一直拿最大的两只开放式股票型基金（股票占 95-100%）和最大的两只分散投资的封闭式股票型基金的业绩，与合伙基金的收益率做对比。它们是 Massachusetts Investors Trust、Investors Stock Fund、Tri-Continental Corp.。这四家公司为大约 60 万投资人管理着 50 多亿的资金。基金行业管理的总资产是 350 亿美元，它们应该能代表大多数的基金公司。有些投资顾问机构管理的资产规模更大，它们绝大多数的业绩应该和这四家基金公司不相上下。",[14,377,378],{},"我想用下面的表格说明，作为衡量投资业绩的指数，道指不是那么容易战胜的。上述四家基金由能力出众的经理人管理，它们每年收取的管理费是 1000 多万美元，整个基金行业收取的管理费数额就更庞大了。从这些高薪经理人的打击率（batting average）来看，他们的业绩和道指相比稍逊一筹。",[14,380,381],{},[382,383,384],"strong",{},"年度业绩",[36,386,387,411],{},[39,388,389],{},[42,390,391,393,396,399,402,405,408],{},[45,392,47],{},[45,394,395],{},"Mass. Inv. Trust (1)",[45,397,398],{},"Investors Stock (1)",[45,400,401],{},"Lehman (2)",[45,403,404],{},"Tri-Cont. (2)",[45,406,407],{},"道指",[45,409,410],{},"有限合伙人实际收益率",[58,412,413,432,452,472,492,512,532,551,571],{},[42,414,415,417,420,423,425,428,430],{},[63,416,65],{},[63,418,419],{},"-11.4%",[63,421,422],{},"-12.4%",[63,424,419],{},[63,426,427],{},"-2.4%",[63,429,68],{},[63,431,74],{},[42,433,434,436,439,442,445,448,450],{},[63,435,79],{},[63,437,438],{},"42.7%",[63,440,441],{},"47.5%",[63,443,444],{},"40.8%",[63,446,447],{},"33.2%",[63,449,82],{},[63,451,88],{},[42,453,454,456,459,462,465,468,470],{},[63,455,93],{},[63,457,458],{},"9.0%",[63,460,461],{},"10.3%",[63,463,464],{},"8.1%",[63,466,467],{},"8.4%",[63,469,96],{},[63,471,102],{},[42,473,474,476,479,482,485,488,490],{},[63,475,107],{},[63,477,478],{},"-1.0%",[63,480,481],{},"-0.6%",[63,483,484],{},"2.5%",[63,486,487],{},"2.8%",[63,489,110],{},[63,491,116],{},[42,493,494,496,499,502,505,508,510],{},[63,495,121],{},[63,497,498],{},"25.6%",[63,500,501],{},"24.9%",[63,503,504],{},"23.6%",[63,506,507],{},"22.5%",[63,509,124],{},[63,511,130],{},[42,513,514,516,519,522,525,528,530],{},[63,515,135],{},[63,517,518],{},"-9.8%",[63,520,521],{},"-13.4%",[63,523,524],{},"-14.4%",[63,526,527],{},"-10.0%",[63,529,138],{},[63,531,144],{},[42,533,534,536,538,541,544,547,549],{},[63,535,149],{},[63,537,96],{},[63,539,540],{},"16.5%",[63,542,543],{},"23.7%",[63,545,546],{},"18.3%",[63,548,152],{},[63,550,158],{},[42,552,553,555,558,561,564,567,569],{},[63,554,163],{},[63,556,557],{},"15.9%",[63,559,560],{},"14.3%",[63,562,563],{},"13.6%",[63,565,566],{},"12.6%",[63,568,166],{},[63,570,172],{},[42,572,573,575,578,581,584,587,589],{},[63,574,177],{},[63,576,577],{},"10.2%",[63,579,580],{},"9.8%",[63,582,583],{},"19.0%",[63,585,586],{},"10.7%",[63,588,180],{},[63,590,186],{},[188,592,593],{},[14,594,595],{},"(1) 计算包括资产价值变化以及当年持有人获得的分红。\n(2) 来源：1965 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-64。1965 年数据为估算值。",[14,597,598],{},[382,599,600],{},"复合收益率",[36,602,603,621],{},[39,604,605],{},[42,606,607,609,611,613,615,617,619],{},[45,608,47],{},[45,610,395],{},[45,612,398],{},[45,614,401],{},[45,616,404],{},[45,618,407],{},[45,620,410],{},[58,622,623,639,660,680,701,722,743,763,783,803],{},[42,624,625,627,629,631,633,635,637],{},[63,626,65],{},[63,628,419],{},[63,630,422],{},[63,632,419],{},[63,634,427],{},[63,636,68],{},[63,638,74],{},[42,640,641,644,647,650,653,656,658],{},[63,642,643],{},"1957-58",[63,645,646],{},"26.4%",[63,648,649],{},"29.2%",[63,651,652],{},"24.7%",[63,654,655],{},"30.0%",[63,657,232],{},[63,659,238],{},[42,661,662,665,668,671,674,676,678],{},[63,663,664],{},"1957-59",[63,666,667],{},"37.8%",[63,669,670],{},"42.5%",[63,672,673],{},"34.8%",[63,675,85],{},[63,677,246],{},[63,679,252],{},[42,681,682,685,688,691,694,697,699],{},[63,683,684],{},"1957-60",[63,686,687],{},"36.4%",[63,689,690],{},"41.6%",[63,692,693],{},"38.2%",[63,695,696],{},"44.8%",[63,698,260],{},[63,700,266],{},[42,702,703,706,709,712,715,718,720],{},[63,704,705],{},"1957-61",[63,707,708],{},"71.3%",[63,710,711],{},"76.9%",[63,713,714],{},"70.8%",[63,716,717],{},"77.4%",[63,719,274],{},[63,721,280],{},[42,723,724,727,730,733,736,739,741],{},[63,725,726],{},"1957-62",[63,728,729],{},"54.5%",[63,731,732],{},"53.2%",[63,734,735],{},"46.2%",[63,737,738],{},"59.7%",[63,740,288],{},[63,742,294],{},[42,744,745,747,750,753,756,759,761],{},[63,746,299],{},[63,748,749],{},"85.4%",[63,751,752],{},"78.5%",[63,754,755],{},"80.8%",[63,757,758],{},"88.9%",[63,760,302],{},[63,762,308],{},[42,764,765,767,770,773,776,779,781],{},[63,766,313],{},[63,768,769],{},"114.9%",[63,771,772],{},"104.0%",[63,774,775],{},"105.4%",[63,777,778],{},"112.7%",[63,780,316],{},[63,782,322],{},[42,784,785,787,790,793,796,799,801],{},[63,786,327],{},[63,788,789],{},"136.8%",[63,791,792],{},"124.0%",[63,794,795],{},"145.3%",[63,797,798],{},"138.4%",[63,800,330],{},[63,802,336],{},[42,804,805,807,810,813,816,818,820],{},[63,806,341],{},[63,808,809],{},"10.1%",[63,811,812],{},"9.4%",[63,814,815],{},"10.5%",[63,817,809],{},[63,819,344],{},[63,821,350],{},[14,823,824],{},"有不少规模很大的投资顾问公司，管理着数十亿美元的资产，它们也管理小型基金，有时候是为了照顾规模较小的客户，有时候是为了向公众展示业绩。它们管理的基金，业绩和上述四只基金不相上下。",[14,826,827],{},"衡量绝对是投资中的关键一环。在上述基金经理的日常活动中，他们总是在衡量。他们总是在研究市场份额、利润率、资本回报率等因素的变化。他们在整个决策过程中都在衡量，衡量管理层、行业、相对收益率等等。我相信他们也会衡量新增业务量以及投资顾问业务的利润率。说到底，在各种各样的衡量中，哪一项能比投资机会和投资决策的衡量更重要？我在衡量自己的业绩时有自己的一套标准（也希望我的合伙人使用同样的标准），我的这套标准肯定不适用于所有基金经理。但是，无论是谁，只要做资产管理工作，就应该有一套衡量标准，资产管理人和投资者都要清楚为什么这套标准合适，要选取多长时间衡量。",[14,829,830],{},"弗兰克·布洛克（Frank Block）在1965年《财务分析师期刊》（Financial Analysts Journal） 11 月-12月刊中说得很好。在讲到投资业绩的衡量时，他说： “关于投资业绩衡量的内容是一片巨大的空白。如果投资管理机构都把目标定为追求最佳业绩，那么所有关于投资业绩的分析，再怎么仔细，也都是千篇一律。虽说客户没给要求我们严肃认真地分析业绩，但出于职业投资者的尊严，我们每位职业资产管理人也应该客观地评估自己的表现。对业绩没有明确的理解，又怎么能客观评估？对业绩有了明确的了解，才能着手进行分析，才看得出强弱优劣。公司的管理层缺乏合适的工具和方法，掌握不了复杂的企业组织的动态变化，我们会批评这样的管理层。我们同样缺乏合适的工具和方法，为别人管理资产，却不知道自己的表现如何，我们的过失同样不可原谅。我们很遗憾，在大多数投资管理机构处理的众多数据中，缺失了衡量业绩的体系。很悲哀，有些人宁愿糊涂，不想自己的表现如何。”",[14,832,833],{},"坦白说，我坚持我们一定要有个标准，而且我们都使用同样的标准，也是有些私心。我就喜欢把指数甩在后面。凯西·斯坦戈（译注：Casey Stengel，美国职业棒球大联盟著名球员和教练）说得好：“甘心服输的都是卢瑟”(Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.)。更重要的是，有了标准，合伙人批评我的话，一定也是因为我真的表现不好（不如道指），而不会因为某年出现亏损而错怪我。知道了合伙人能合理地给我打分，我能更专注地工作。最后，事先就把衡量标准定好，将来如果业绩不行了，我们可以解散。无论过去收益率多高，都不会影响对当前业绩的判断。表现拙劣就是拙劣，找各种借口也没用。（我最近桥牌打得不好，因为光线太暗了。）表面看，这样衡量业绩是自讨苦吃，哪有什么好处。我观察过许多企业，可以肯定地告诉大家，若是能制定正确的评估方法，许多投资机构和实业公司会取得了不起的成绩。",[14,835,836],{},"如果你要评估别人（或你自己！）在投资活动中的表现，最好确定具体的标准，按照标准评估和解读。要是你觉得我们的标准（检验三年以上与道指的相对业绩）不合适，请不要投资合伙基金。如果你认为我们的标准很合适，当出现亏损的年份时，只要我们的整体业绩领先道指，你就应当保持平静，不但头脑要平静，内心也要平静。",[10,838,839],{"id":839},"复利的哀伤",[14,841,842],{},"在每年的信里，写到这部分的时候，我都要停下来，纠正一下过去四五百年里关于复利投资的错误。每年只有几段的篇幅，这是个艰巨的任务。不过，我觉得我已经尽力了，世人对哥伦布、伊莎贝拉、弗朗西斯一世、彼得·米努伊特和曼哈顿的印第安人应该有了新认识。在分析错误的同时，我们也见证了复利的巨大威力。为了吸引读者的注意，我给这部分选的标题是“复利的喜悦”，眼尖的读者可能发现今年的标题变了。",[14,844,845],{},"这些年来我们的复合收益率相当好，另外合伙人还追加了大量投资，今年年初，我们的资金量已经达到43,645,000美元。资金的增加是否会影响我们的业绩？这个问题我之前说过几次。以前每次我都说，不会有影响，而且保证什么时候我不这么想了，一定会立即告诉大家。",[14,847,848],{},"到目前为止，资金的增加并没有降低我们的收益。其实，过去几年里，要是我们的资金量小得多的话，合伙基金的业绩可能会更差一些。因为有几笔投资正好适合我们的体量，它们的规模不算小，能对业绩做出较大贡献，它们的规模又不算大，正好我们能掌控得了。我们运气很好，这几笔投资收益都不错。",[14,850,851],{},"现在我觉得我们的资金量已经很大了，可能就快产生不利影响了。这里面涉及很多变量，我也没办法说准。随着市场和商业环境的变化，最合适的规模也会相应变化。一个环境里的最佳规模，换到另一个环境里，可能就完全不一样了。过去几年里，有时候，从非常短的时间看，我觉得要是我们规模更小会更好。但更多时候，我还是觉得我们规模大比较好。",[14,853,854],{},"现在我们的规模更大了，从当前的环境来看，这样的规模将来拖累业绩的可能性比提升业绩的可能性更大。真正受影响的或许不是我的个人收益，而是各位合伙人的收益。",[14,856,857],{},"综上所述，除非环境变化了（在有些情况下，新增资金有助于提升业绩）或新合伙人能为合伙基金带来资金以外的贡献，我打算停止接受新合伙人加入巴菲特合伙基金。",[14,859,860],{},"这项措施要执行到底就必须一视同仁，我已经告诉苏茜，要是我们再有子女想加入，由她为他们寻找其他投资途径。",[14,862,863],{},"一方面，现有合伙人的资金提取（用于支付税款等）和资金追加规模应当不相上下；另一方面，我预计随着资金增加，预期收益率只会轻微降低。目前，我没任何理由限制现有合伙人追加投资。",[14,865,866],{},"经常和医学打交道的人，看完这部分会得出结论：一种有效治疗甲亢的新药研发出来了。",[10,868,869],{"id":869},"投资情况进展",[14,871,872],{},"去年，我详细介绍了我们的几种投资。法律规定禁止施加残酷和逾常刑罚（译注：Cruel and unusualpunishment，美国宪法第八修正案规定禁止施加残酷和逾常刑罚），我就不赘述每个类别的特点了，各位可以从去年的信中找到相关内容。但是，我应该向大家报告一下各类投资的进展情况，让大家更了解每类投资的优缺点。",[14,874,875],{},"近来只有零星的“套利类”投资机会。去年，我们只做了几笔套利，平均只投入了600万美元。套利类的收益是1,410,000美元，平均资本回报率是23.5％（计算中使用的是自有资本。在大多数套利类投资中可以借钱，我们在套利投资中使用一部分借来的资金，可以提升回报率）。在这1,410,000 美元的收益里，一半以上来自一笔套利。在当前的情况下，大量资金参与套利不可能持续获得较高的收益率。尽管如此，我们仍将继续关注偶尔出现的大机会，从概率看赢面较大的情况下，我们或许也会继续参与较小的机会。",[14,877,878],{},"1965年，“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”（Generals-Private Owner Basis）给我们带来了丰厚的收益。随着道指上涨，此类投资机会越来越少。但是这样的机会一出现，往往就是大机会。在去年的信中，我一开头就提到，我们在三笔低估类投资中是最大股东。1965年，我们通过要约收购将其中1964年末规模最大的一笔卖出，为合伙基金实现了3,188,000美元的收益。1964年末，此类投资的未实现增值是451,000美元。所以说，这笔交易对1965年贡献的收益只有2,737,000美元，但是全部税款都要在1965年缴纳。我给出这些数字，是想告诉大家：在任何一年，我们实现的收益都要纳税，这个实现的收益是用于税收的，和我们的实际收益没多大关系。",[14,880,881],{},"从刚才讲的这笔投资中，我们就能很好地理解“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”的含义。一个价格，产业资本非常愿意按这个价格买入一家公司的控股权（我们认为产业资本很聪明），但是散户就不愿按这个价格买入公司很小的一部分股权。多少年来，股市里一直都这样。单纯因为股市里人们的行为，这个类别的投资就能取得良好的收益。偶尔会出现要约收购等公司行为，这个类别能赚得更多。",[14,883,884],{},"“控制类”投资中新增了一个成员，是从“低估类（基于产业资本视角）”转过来的。我们从 1962年11月就开始买入伯克希尔哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）的股份，买入的理由基本和上面讲到的那只一样。伯克希尔这笔投资的不同之处在于，我们最后买到了很多股票，我们自己取得了控股权。大多数低估类投资，要么是上涨后在市场卖出，要么是卖给其他大买家。",[14,886,887],{},"1962年，我们刚开始买伯克希尔时，买入的价格是每股7.60美元。纺织行业的格局发生了较大变化，之前的管理层后知后觉，被迫关闭了几家濒临淘汰的工厂，导致了巨大亏损，所以股价如此之低。二战结束以来，伯克希尔深陷泥潭，一直在走下坡路。1948年，这家公司最辉煌的时候税前利润有2950万美元，拥有11家工厂、11,000名工人。",[14,889,890],{},"1965年春，我们取得控股权时，伯克希尔只剩下两家工厂，2,300名工人。没想到伯克希尔虽然只剩下残存的业务，但留下来的管理人员很优秀，我们不用从公司外面找人来经营，这真是太好了。我们最开始的买入成本才每股7.60美元（平均买入成本是每股14.86美元，1965年初我们加大了买入力度），1965年12月31日，这家公司的净营运资本就有每股19美元（厂房和设备的价值不算）。",[14,892,893],{},"能拥有伯克希尔，我们感到很高兴。毫无疑问，伯克希尔的盈利能力如何，主要决定因素是纺织行业的行业状况。幸好我们有一流的经理人肯·切斯（Ken Chace）负责公司运营，另外，负责伯克希尔销售团队的几位经理人也是行业精英。",[14,895,896],{},"伯克希尔处于生存压力巨大的行业，不可能像施乐（Xerox）、仙童摄影器材（Fairchild Camera）或国家影视（National Video）那么赚钱，但是我们拥有伯克希尔非常放心。正如我的西海岸哲学家朋友所说：“燕麦、奶油泡芙都要吃，这样的膳食才合理。”",[14,898,899],{},"既然已经取得了控股权，在审计中，我们对伯克希尔这笔投资会按照企业价值评估，而不是有价证券。伯克希尔的股价涨5美元，和我们没多大关系，我们不会卖。同样，跌5美元，也和我们没多大关系。控股公司的价值取决于公司本身的价值。在评估我们的控股权益时，我不是按照神的启示来估值。（前面提到了三只牛股，或许买了这三只股票的人真得到了神的启示。没有神的启示，现在的价格这么高，晚上怎么能睡得着？）对于伯克希尔，我会根据我对资产、盈利能力、行业状况、竞争情况等因素的了解，进行保守的估值。我们在年末会给出一个估值，但是我们不会按这个估值卖出，其他投资也一样，否则我们早就卖了。",[14,901,902],{},"最后一类投资是“低估类（相对低估）”（Generals-Relatively Undervalued）。随着其他类别的投资机会减少，此类投资的重要性日益增加。",[14,904,905],{},"说实话，与其他三类相比，我觉得这类投资多少有些虚浮，我不喜欢虚浮的东西。我觉得这类投资没其他几类那么稳妥，也不像其他几类那样可以比较准确地预知未来会如何。虽说如此，1965年，“相对低估类”投资表现优异，这得益于我在去年信中提到的操作方法，这种方法可以既能降低风险，又能提高收益。无论是哪一年，这种方法都应该能降低风险，但是在1965年，这个方法确实帮助我们提高了收益。需要告诉大家的是，为此类投资出色表现做出最大贡献的，只是两笔投资。",[14,907,908],{},"因为要如实报告，我也要告诉大家，1965年，在相对低估类中，我们有一笔投资失败了，这是合伙基金成立以来最糟糕的一次单笔投资。",[14,910,911],{},"整体来说，在相对低估类中，我们1965年的运气还是不错的。我们在这类投资中找到的机会不多，但是找到的都是相当好的（除了上面提到失败的那个）。由于情况变化，我们加快了对其中几个机会投资的步伐。进入1966年，我看到的机会不是很多，但刚才也说了，有几个大机会可能是相当好的。主要看市场情况是否有利，我们能不能买到比较多的货。",[14,913,914],{},"总之，1965年用上了的投资机会多，新找到的投资机会少。",[10,916,917],{"id":917},"关于分散",[14,919,920],{},"去年，在讲到大多数基金经理的业绩还不如随机选股时，我给出的分析是，说这种现象有如下几个原因：“（1）群体决策—这或许是我的偏见：我认为，只要是一个群体，所有成员共同参与决策，投资管理工作想要达到一流水平几乎不可能；（2）与其他声誉卓著的大型机构保持一致的倾向，无论是策略，还是部分投资组合；（3）机构框架的束缚—平均水平很“安全”，对个人而言，特立独行的回报与风险毫不相称；（4）僵化固守某些不理智的分散投资策略；最后一点，也是最重要的一点：（5）惯性。”",[14,922,923],{},"在今年11月份给各位寄送的材料中，我特别提醒各位注意，我新增加了一条基本原则：“7．与大多数同行相比，我们的分散程度远远更低。一笔投资，我们掌握了事实和逻辑，正确的概率极大，与此同时，这笔投资的内在价值不可能出现根本变化，出错的概率很小，在这种情况下，我们可能最多拿出40％的净资产用于这笔投资。”",[14,925,926],{},"在分散投资方面，我们遵循的策略显然与几乎所有公募投资机构截然不同。说实话，要是有50个不同的投资机会摆在我面前，每个机会都有每年领先道指15个百分点的数学期望值（mathematical expectation 是一个统计学术语，它描述的是所有可能出现的相对收益（包括负收益），按照各种相对收益的概率调整后，计算出的范围。别晕！），这再好不过了。要是这50个投资机会的期望值是不相关的（在其中一个投资机会中发生的事件不会影响其他投资机会），我可以把我们的资金分成50份，每个机会投资2％的资金，然后就可以高枕无忧了，因为我们的整体业绩会非常接近于领先道指15个百分点，这个确定性极高。",[14,928,929],{},"实际上不是这么回事。",[14,931,932],{},"经过一番艰苦的努力，我们也就能找到寥寥几个特别可能赚钱的投资机会。按照我们的目标，对于这样的投资机会，我的要求是拥有领先道指至少10个百分点的数学期望值。这样的机会能找到的就不多，找到的机会里，每个的数学期望值又存在巨大差异。我们总要回答这个问题：“按照相对收益的数学期望值，排名第一的要分配多少仓位？排名第八的要分配多少仓位？”这主要取决于第一和第八的数学期望值相差多少，还要考虑第一有多大的概率会出现极其糟糕的相对收益。两只股票的数学期望值可能相同，但是其中一只有5％的概率落后道指15个百分点以上，另一只出现这个情况的概率只有1％。前者的数学期望值范围较大，这就会降低我集中投资这只股票的意愿。",[14,934,935],{},"上面的论述把投资说得好像是非常精确的操作。其实不然。我们做投资就是确定事实，然后用经验和理智分析事实，得出数学期望值。这个过程不精确，受情绪影响，但这就是投资。一位投资者，无论是否有意识地进行这样的估算，他在股市摸爬滚打很多年，对许多股票做过决策，从他的长期业绩里，就能看出他估算水平的高低。有的投资者有着非常清晰的思维过程，我相信他们在投资中有明显优势。",[14,937,938],{},"有一点我非常肯定。就算不以追求良好业绩为首要目标，无论资金量是 1000美元，还是10亿美元，一个投资组合，要是其中包含了一百只股票，就肯定不符合逻辑。在投资组合中加入第一百只股票，它拉低整个投资组合数学期望值的弊，远远大于平滑组合业绩波动的利。",[14,940,941],{},"谁要是持有这么多只股票，而且还像模像样地研究过每一只，无论他们的名头有多响，我都把他们称为诺亚方舟派，什么东西都来两个。他们还是别投资了，去开诺亚方舟得了。诺亚可能遵循了某些久经考验的生物学规律，诺亚方舟派的投资者却偏离了数学原理。（我平面几何差点就挂科了。除了一个例外，在挑选合伙人时，数学好的，我一律不收。）",[14,943,944],{},"别人持有一百只股票的做法不符合逻辑，这证明不了我们就是对的。别人的投资过度分散可能是错的，我们必须从正面证明，按照我们的目标，我们如何分散才是正确的。",[14,946,947],{},"一个最佳投资组合，有两个决定因素：一是各种股票的不同数学期望值，二是对业绩波动的容忍程度。选的股票越多，每年的实际收益率与预期收益率越接近，波动越小。既然各只股票具有不同的业绩数学期望值，选的股票越多，预期收益率也越低。",[14,949,950],{},"为了追求更高的长期整体收益率，我会毫不犹豫地放弃平滑每年的业绩波动（请注意，我这里所说的“业绩”是指相对道指的表现）。简单点说，一旦看准了最佳投资机会，我愿意下重注集中投资。我很清楚，我这么操作可能偶尔一年业绩特别差，要是分散了，就没这个情况。我们的业绩波动幅度更大，但是从长期来看，我们的领先优势也更大。",[14,952,953],{},"各位从过去几年的业绩里就看得出来。我们相对道指的领先优势，最低的是1958年的2.4个百分点，最高的是1965年的33个百分点。再看一下基金公司和道指的比较情况，你会发现我们的波动幅度大得多。要我降低我们的波动幅度，我完全做得到，而且还能远远领先基金公司，但我们的整体收益肯定会降低。结合过去几年的投资经历思考这个问题，我有这么个感觉：我以前应该再集中一些。于是，我新增加了一条基本原则，又在这里解释了这么多。",[14,955,956],{},"重复一遍，我的逻辑有些不合常规（是对是错，不能通过是否符合常规来判断，你必须独立思考），我尊重你的不同见解，但如果你和我看法相左，合伙基金不适合你。我们能投入40％的仓位，肯定是遇到了特别罕见的情况。正因为罕见，抓准了机会，才要下重注。合伙基金成立九年来，我们仓位超过25％的投资也只有五六笔。能成为集中投资的机会，首先是与其他机会相比，它们相对道指的预期收益率必须远远更高。除此之外，它们还必须是通过定性和／或定量分析挑选出来的一等一的好机会，出现严重永久性损失的风险极低（短期的市场报价多高多低都有可能，所以说集中投资，每年业绩的波动风险更大）。在安排仓位时，任何一笔投资，我都要对它的仓位进行限制，尽可能降低一笔投资（或相关的一组投资）导致整体组合落后道指10％的概率。",[14,958,959],{},"目前，我们有两笔投资仓位在25％以上，一个是我们控股的公司，另一个是我们将始终保持被动投资的大型公司。值得指出的是，我们1965年的收益绝大部分来自五笔投资。1965年，这五笔投资对收益的贡献在80万美元到350万美元之间（其中有几笔投资的收益是前几年就有了）。要是只算1965年我们规模最小的五笔低估类投资，我们的业绩就黯然失色了（我选择了比较文明的字眼形容）。",[14,961,962],{},"有个奇怪的现象，关于最佳分散选择的推理计算这个问题，在投资管理文献中竟然鲜有论述。",[14,964,965],{},"所有材料都建议“充分”分散，但是提出“充分”分散的人从来不讲他们是怎么得出结论的。我们关于过度分散的论述这就讲完了，最后就用著名学者比利·罗斯（Billy Rose）的话结尾：“你要是有70个女人的后宫，没一个女人你能懂。”",[10,967,968],{"id":968},"其他事项",[14,970,971],{},"去年，我们大举扩张，将办公室面积增加了21平米。老合伙人直摇头。从1965年12,304,060美元的收益来看，我们没扩张过度。幸好签的不是百分比租约（译注：percentage lease，按营业额百分比支付租金。）我对合伙基金的日常运营非常满意，在我们的运营体系中，与资金管理行业的任何人相比，我都可以把更多时间用于思考投资。这离不开我们工作人员的努力和合伙人的配合。",[14,973,974],{},"约翰·哈丁现在全权负责所有行政工作，他的工作做得有声有色。比尔·斯科特一如既往地搜集关于投资的详细信息，他为我们的收益做出了巨大贡献。贝丝·菲恩、多娜·沃尔特和伊丽莎白·哈农（伊丽莎白是11月份加入的）准确高效地完成了大量工作。",[14,976,977],{},"我们的上述工作人员及其配偶（一人一个）和子女在合伙基金中共计投资 600,000美元。苏茜和我在合伙基金里有6,849,936美元的投资，我保证不会下午溜出去看电影。我们的全部净资产几乎都在合伙基金里。在合伙基金之外，我们只持有 Mid—Continent Tab Card Co.的股权，这是一家本地公司，是我1960年投资的，当时股东还不到10人。",[14,979,980],{},"另外，我们一大家子，包括三个子女、我的母亲、两个姐妹、两个姐夫、岳父、三个姑姑、两个叔叔、四个表亲、六个侄子侄女，直接或间接持有总计2,708,233 美元的合伙基金权益。谁要想投票更改合伙人基金名称，没门。",[14,982,983],{},"毕马威会计师事务所像往常一样，审计工作和税收信息整理工作做得又快又好，这是因为他们既能力出众，又勤劳肯干。今年，他们带来一台电脑来做审计工作，我还担心可别把别人当成普通合伙人，还好，一切很顺利。",[14,985,986],{},"在今后两周，各位合伙人会收到如下文件：",[188,988,989],{},[990,991,992,996,999],"ol",{},[993,994,995],"li",{},"一份包含税收数据的信函，其中列有申报1965 年联邦所得税所需的所有巴菲特合伙基金信息。",[993,997,998],{},"毕马威会计师事务所出具的1965年审计报告，其中包含巴菲特合伙基金的运营数据和财务状况以及合伙人资本账户的信息。",[993,1000,1001],{},"一份由我签署的、证明您于1966年1月1日持有巴菲特合伙基金权益的文件，其中的权益数据与审计报告中列出的数据一致。",[14,1003,1004],{},"如果对信中内容有任何疑问，或者年中遇到任何问题，请随时与我联系。我在信中很难面面俱到，要是有任何不明白的地方，请告诉我。去年，一位合伙人给我们提了一条极好的建议，他建议我们改进个人资金账户调节的列式方法。",[14,1006,1007],{},"下一封信是上半年总结，各位将在 7月15日左右收到。",[14,1009,1010],{},"沃伦 E.巴菲特谨上",[1012,1013,1016,1022],"section",{"className":1014,"dataFootnotes":363},[1015],"footnotes",[1017,1018,1021],"h2",{"className":1019,"id":362},[1020],"sr-only","Footnotes",[990,1023,1024],{},[993,1025,1027,1028],{"id":1026},"user-content-fn-1","Ponge 的翻译优化建议：每年，当比赛的发令枪一响，我们的成绩都要从零开始，所有的资产都会以年初的市场价值为基准计算收益率。这里的考虑是：发令枪的翻译是准确的，但是「一切按市值计算，从零开始」表述的有点不清楚，我尽量扩充了省略的内容，保证好理解。 ",[358,1029,1034],{"href":1030,"ariaLabel":1031,"className":1032,"dataFootnoteBackref":363},"#user-content-fnref-1","Back to reference 1",[1033],"data-footnote-backref","↩",{"title":363,"searchDepth":1036,"depth":1036,"links":1037},2,[1038],{"id":362,"depth":1036,"text":1021},"致股东信",null,"1965年巴菲特致合伙人信，回顾投资收益表现、阐述控股类投资理念及合伙人协议更新","md",{},true,18,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"description":1041},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信｜巴菲特","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","qSOx8gwv2CshS6DbaXiEaG568FCg5cCXeQSiF7l5DKw","buffett",[1054,1058,1062,1066,1069,1072,1075,1079,1082,1085,1089,1092,1095,1099,1102,1105,1109,1112,1115,1119,1122,1125,1129,1132,1135,1139,1142,1145,1149,1152,1155,1159,1162,1165,1169,1172,1175,1179,1182,1185,1189,1192,1195,1199,1202,1205,1209,1212,1215,1219,1222,1225,1226,1229,1232,1236,1239,1242,1246,1249,1252,1256,1259,1262,1266,1269,1272,1276,1279,1282,1286,1289,1292,1296,1299,1302,1306,1309,1312,1316,1319,1322,1326,1329,1332,1336,1339,1342,1346,1349,1352,1356,1359,1362,1366,1369,1372,1376,1379,1382,1386,1389,1393,1396,1400,1403,1407,1410,1414,1417,1421,1424,1428,1431,1435,1438,1442,1445,1449,1452,1456,1459,1463,1466,1470,1473,1477,1480,1484,1487,1491,1494,1498,1501,1505,1508,1512,1515,1519,1522,1526,1529,1533,1536,1540,1543,1547,1550,1554,1557,1561,1564,1568,1571,1575,1578,1582,1585,1589,1592,1596,1599,1603,1606,1610,1613,1617,1620,1624,1627,1631,1634,1638,1641,1645,1648,1652,1655,1659,1662,1666,1669,1673,1676,1680,1683,1687,1690,1694,1697,1701,1704,1708,1711,1715,1718,1722,1725,1729,1732,1736,1739,1743,1746,1750,1753,1757,1760,1764,1767,1771,1774,1778,1781,1785,1788,1792,1795,1799,1802,1806,1809,1813,1816,1820,1823,1827,1830,1834,1837,1841,1844,1848,1851,1855,1859,1863,1867,1871,1875,1879,1883,1887,1891,1895,1899,1903,1907,1911,1915,1919,1923,1927,1931,1935,1939,1943,1947,1951,1955,1959,1963,1967,1971,1975,1979,1983,1987,1991,1995,1999,2003,2007,2011,2015,2019,2023,2027,2031,2035,2039,2043,2047,2051],{"title":1055,"slug":1056,"category":1039,"order":1057},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1059,"slug":1060,"category":1061,"order":1057},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1063,"slug":1064,"category":1065,"order":1057},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1067,"slug":1068,"category":1039,"order":1036},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1070,"slug":1071,"category":1061,"order":1036},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1073,"slug":1074,"category":1065,"order":1036},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1076,"slug":1077,"category":1039,"order":1078},"1958 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1100,"slug":1101,"category":1061,"order":1098},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1103,"slug":1104,"category":1065,"order":1098},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1106,"slug":1107,"category":1039,"order":1108},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1110,"slug":1111,"category":1061,"order":1108},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":1065,"order":1108},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1116,"slug":1117,"category":1039,"order":1118},"1961年中 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Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1240,"slug":1241,"category":1065,"order":1235},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1243,"slug":1244,"category":1039,"order":1245},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1247,"slug":1248,"category":1061,"order":1245},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1250,"slug":1251,"category":1065,"order":1245},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1253,"slug":1254,"category":1039,"order":1255},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1257,"slug":1258,"category":1061,"order":1255},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1260,"slug":1261,"category":1065,"order":1255},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1263,"slug":1264,"category":1039,"order":1265},"1966 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1347,"slug":1348,"category":1061,"order":1345},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1350,"slug":1351,"category":1065,"order":1345},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1353,"slug":1354,"category":1039,"order":1355},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1357,"slug":1358,"category":1061,"order":1355},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1360,"slug":1361,"category":1065,"order":1355},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1363,"slug":1364,"category":1039,"order":1365},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1367,"slug":1368,"category":1061,"order":1365},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1370,"slug":1371,"category":1065,"order":1365},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1373,"slug":1374,"category":1039,"order":1375},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1377,"slug":1378,"category":1061,"order":1375},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1380,"slug":1381,"category":1065,"order":1375},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1383,"slug":1384,"category":1039,"order":1385},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1387,"slug":1388,"category":1061,"order":1385},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1390,"slug":1391,"category":1039,"order":1392},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1394,"slug":1395,"category":1061,"order":1392},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1397,"slug":1398,"category":1039,"order":1399},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1401,"slug":1402,"category":1061,"order":1399},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1404,"slug":1405,"category":1039,"order":1406},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1408,"slug":1409,"category":1061,"order":1406},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1411,"slug":1412,"category":1039,"order":1413},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1415,"slug":1416,"category":1061,"order":1413},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1418,"slug":1419,"category":1039,"order":1420},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1422,"slug":1423,"category":1061,"order":1420},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1425,"slug":1426,"category":1039,"order":1427},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1429,"slug":1430,"category":1061,"order":1427},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1432,"slug":1433,"category":1039,"order":1434},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1436,"slug":1437,"category":1061,"order":1434},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1439,"slug":1440,"category":1039,"order":1441},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1443,"slug":1444,"category":1061,"order":1441},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1446,"slug":1447,"category":1039,"order":1448},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1450,"slug":1451,"category":1061,"order":1448},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1453,"slug":1454,"category":1039,"order":1455},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1457,"slug":1458,"category":1061,"order":1455},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1460,"slug":1461,"category":1039,"order":1462},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1464,"slug":1465,"category":1061,"order":1462},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1467,"slug":1468,"category":1039,"order":1469},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1471,"slug":1472,"category":1061,"order":1469},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1474,"slug":1475,"category":1039,"order":1476},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1478,"slug":1479,"category":1061,"order":1476},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1481,"slug":1482,"category":1039,"order":1483},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1485,"slug":1486,"category":1061,"order":1483},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1488,"slug":1489,"category":1039,"order":1490},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1492,"slug":1493,"category":1061,"order":1490},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1495,"slug":1496,"category":1039,"order":1497},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1499,"slug":1500,"category":1061,"order":1497},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1502,"slug":1503,"category":1039,"order":1504},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1506,"slug":1507,"category":1061,"order":1504},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1509,"slug":1510,"category":1039,"order":1511},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1513,"slug":1514,"category":1061,"order":1511},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1516,"slug":1517,"category":1039,"order":1518},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1520,"slug":1521,"category":1061,"order":1518},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1523,"slug":1524,"category":1039,"order":1525},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1527,"slug":1528,"category":1061,"order":1525},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1530,"slug":1531,"category":1039,"order":1532},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1534,"slug":1535,"category":1061,"order":1532},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1537,"slug":1538,"category":1039,"order":1539},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1541,"slug":1542,"category":1061,"order":1539},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1544,"slug":1545,"category":1039,"order":1546},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1548,"slug":1549,"category":1061,"order":1546},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1551,"slug":1552,"category":1039,"order":1553},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1555,"slug":1556,"category":1061,"order":1553},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1558,"slug":1559,"category":1039,"order":1560},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1562,"slug":1563,"category":1061,"order":1560},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1565,"slug":1566,"category":1039,"order":1567},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1569,"slug":1570,"category":1061,"order":1567},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1572,"slug":1573,"category":1039,"order":1574},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1576,"slug":1577,"category":1061,"order":1574},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1579,"slug":1580,"category":1039,"order":1581},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1583,"slug":1584,"category":1061,"order":1581},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1586,"slug":1587,"category":1039,"order":1588},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1590,"slug":1591,"category":1061,"order":1588},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1593,"slug":1594,"category":1039,"order":1595},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1597,"slug":1598,"category":1061,"order":1595},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1600,"slug":1601,"category":1039,"order":1602},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1604,"slug":1605,"category":1061,"order":1602},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1607,"slug":1608,"category":1039,"order":1609},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1611,"slug":1612,"category":1061,"order":1609},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1614,"slug":1615,"category":1039,"order":1616},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1618,"slug":1619,"category":1061,"order":1616},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1621,"slug":1622,"category":1039,"order":1623},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1625,"slug":1626,"category":1061,"order":1623},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1628,"slug":1629,"category":1039,"order":1630},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1632,"slug":1633,"category":1061,"order":1630},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1635,"slug":1636,"category":1039,"order":1637},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1639,"slug":1640,"category":1061,"order":1637},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1642,"slug":1643,"category":1039,"order":1644},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1646,"slug":1647,"category":1061,"order":1644},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1649,"slug":1650,"category":1039,"order":1651},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1653,"slug":1654,"category":1061,"order":1651},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1656,"slug":1657,"category":1039,"order":1658},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1660,"slug":1661,"category":1061,"order":1658},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1663,"slug":1664,"category":1039,"order":1665},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1667,"slug":1668,"category":1061,"order":1665},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1670,"slug":1671,"category":1039,"order":1672},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1674,"slug":1675,"category":1061,"order":1672},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1677,"slug":1678,"category":1039,"order":1679},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1681,"slug":1682,"category":1061,"order":1679},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1684,"slug":1685,"category":1039,"order":1686},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1688,"slug":1689,"category":1061,"order":1686},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1691,"slug":1692,"category":1039,"order":1693},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1695,"slug":1696,"category":1061,"order":1693},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1698,"slug":1699,"category":1039,"order":1700},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1702,"slug":1703,"category":1061,"order":1700},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1705,"slug":1706,"category":1039,"order":1707},"2009 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