[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1714},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":178,"library-sidebar-dao":1180,"library-sidebar-models":1482},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":164,"date":165,"description":166,"extension":167,"meta":168,"navigation":169,"order":170,"path":171,"seo":172,"seoDescription":166,"seoTitle":173,"slug":174,"stem":175,"__hash__":176,"_collection":177},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin.md","1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":160},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,77,80,83,86,89,92,95,98,101,104,107,110,113,116,119,122,125,128,131,134,137,140,143,148,151,154,157],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1970年2月-巴菲特致合伙人信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"1970 年 2 月 25 日",[14,18,19],{},"致各位合伙人：",[14,21,22],{},"在这封信中，我要讲一些关于免税债券的基础知识。我们下个月要帮合伙人购买债券，这里主要讲一下我们要购买的债券的类型和期限。如果你希望找我们帮忙买债券，请务必仔细读这封信，有不懂的地方，请多读几遍。因为有了这封信里的基础知识，你才能听明白我给出的具体购买建议。我在信中会讲到债券的类别和期限，如果你认为我说的不对，很可能你是对的。我们只能向你推荐我们觉得合适的，你和我们的看法不一样，我们就帮不上忙了。我们没办法帮各位购买可转债、公司债或短期债券，只是推荐我们选好的债券，对我们来说就已经是很大的工作量了。",[14,24,25],{},"在这封信里，我尽量只挑重要的写。有的地方可能讲得多了一些，有些地方可能讲得太简单了。有写的不合适的地方，我先在这里请各位谅解。写这封信的时候，我感觉我要把一本100页的书中的精华浓缩到10页里，而且还要写的通俗易懂。",[10,27,28],{"id":28},"如何购买和保管免税债券",[14,30,31],{},"对于希望我们提供帮助的合伙人，我们会安排通过业务范围遍布全国的市政债券交易商直接购买债券，并让它们确认将债券直接销售给合伙人。各位应当妥善保存确认书，作为税收申报材料。各位无需向债券交易商寄送支票，债券交易商会把债券直接交付到各位的银行名下，银行直接从你们的账户中扣除相应款项。对于在二级市场买入的债券（已流通品种），交收日一般是确认日的一周以后。对于新发行的品种，交收日最长可能是一个月以后。交收日期显示在确认单上（对于新发行的品种，确认单是第二张，也是最后一张凭单，不是最开始的那张“发行时”凭单）。你应当在银行中留足资金，为交收日支付债券款项做好准备。如果你目前持有国债，只要通知银行，一两天就能卖出去，所以你有足够的时间准备购买债券的资金。利息从交收日开始累计，即使债券交易商将债券交付给银行的日期晚于交收日也是如此。",[14,33,34],{},"债券如同货币一样，采用无记名形式，可以转让。债券上附有息票。债券的面额一般为5,000美元一张，一般可以转换为记名债券（有的债券转换为记名债券需要支付一笔费用，有的可以免费转换，具体要看债券的条款）。就记名债券而言，你是注册代理人名册中的注册持有人，没你的签名，记名债券不可转让。债券基本上都是采用不记名的方式交易的。如果持有记名债券，不转换为不记名债券的话，很难卖出去。除非是你的实体债券太多，都管不过来，我建议你还是采用不记名的形式。这样的话，债券一定要存放在非常安全的地方，而且每六个月剪一次息票。息票剪下后可以像支票一样存在银行。如果你买了250,000美元的债券，大概就是50张（每张面值5,000美元），每年可能要打开保险柜六次或八次，将息票剪下并存到银行。",[14,36,37],{},"你也可以在银行开一个委托保管账户，花不了多少钱，银行可以替你保管债券、收息并保留记录。以250,000美元的投资组合为例，在银行开设委托保管服务的费用是每年200美元左右。如果想开设委托保管账户，请联系附近商业银行的信托业务员，了解相关服务和费用。要是自己管理的话，应该放在保险箱里。",[10,39,40],{"id":40},"税项",[14,42,43],{},"将免税债券的息票存在银行可获得利息收入，这部分利息当然不必缴纳联邦所得税。如果你的联邦所得税税档为30％，你从收益率为6％的免税债券所获得的收益，与收益率为8.5％的应税债券相当。除了未成年人和一些退休人员，对于我们的大部分合伙人来说，购买免税债券比购买应税债券合适多了。有的人有一大笔资金，但是没有工作收入或股息收入，他们可以做一个应税债券和免税债券的组合，可以获得最高的税后收益。如果你属于这种情况，我们会帮你构建一个这样的组合。",[14,45,46],{},"至于各州的所得税，情况就比较复杂了。在内布拉斯加州，州所得税是联邦所得税的一定百分比，免税债券无需支付州所得税。据我所知，在纽约州和加利福尼亚州，如果发行免税债券的实体位于本州，则无需交纳州所得税，但是购买其他州的免税债券需要交纳州所得税。另外，纽约市的所得税法规定免除纽约州实体发行的免税债券的所得税，但是购买其他州的免税债券需要交税。我不是各州所得税方面的专家，也不想持续关注各州或各市税法的变化。请各位自行咨询当地的税收顾问。我上面简单说了一下我了解的情况，是为了提醒各位注意这个问题。在内布拉斯加州，在计算税后收益时，无需考虑免税债券的发行实体位于哪个州。当发行实体位于其他州并且需要在本地交纳税款时，你需要在本州交纳所得税，但是这笔税款可以在申报联邦所得税时扣除。具体税款是多少，每个人各不相同。另外，有些州还征收各种无形资产税，有的适用于所有免税债券，有的只适用于其他州发行的免税债券。内布拉斯加州没有这些税项，其他州的情况我不了解。",[14,48,49],{},"买入债券时，买入价格低于面值，此后将债券卖出或债券到期时，税法规定将收益和成本之差按资本利得或损失处理。（这个情况有一些小例外。大部分关于投资和税项的一般陈述都总有例外。如果例外情况会影响到我们推荐的证券，我们会告诉你。）这样，税后净收益率会降低，具体降低多少，取决于将来的资本利得税税率以及个人的具体税率。在下文中，在计算贴现债券和“足额息票”债券哪个更合适时，我们会讨论资本利得税的影响。",[14,51,52],{},"最后要说的是非常重要的一点。虽然税法的规定不是特别明确，但是如果你现在正在承担或将来打算承担一般的银行负债或其他债务，最好还是别考虑购买免税债券。",[14,54,55],{},"税法规定，对于已经产生或持续产生的贷款，其利息不可用于抵税，不得购买或持有免税债券。将来这项规定的适用范围应该会加大。例如，根据我的理解，如果贷款买房，可以在申报联邦所得税时用房贷的利息抵税，就算同时持有免税债券也没问题。但是，如果承担着一般的银行贷款，就算将其用于直接购买股票或球场，免税债券不是贷款的抵押物，在报税时用贷款利息抵税会惹麻烦，因为你同时持有免税债券。如果是我的话，我会先把银行贷款还了，然后再买免税债券。具体到底该怎么做，请自行研究并咨询税收顾问。我只是提一下，告诉各位可能有这个问题。",[10,57,58],{"id":58},"债券的市场活跃程度",[14,60,61],{},"免税债券与股票或公司债券存在很大差别，免税债券真的可能有几十万种，大部分品种都只有很少的持有者，因此很难形成交投活跃的市场。当纽约市或费城需要筹集资金时，它们可能会发行20、30、40只不同的证券，因为虽然是同一个品种，但它们要提供不同的到期期限。纽约发行的收益率为6%、1980年到期的债券，与纽约发行的收益率为6%、 1981年到期的债券，不是一个东西。这两个债券不能互换，必须要有买家，卖家才能把自己手里的债券卖出去。想想看，纽约一年要发行好几次债券，这一个城市就可能有将近1000只流通的债券。内布拉斯加州的格兰德岛都可能有75只流通的债券。每个品种的平均规模可能是100,000美元，每个品种的平均持有人数可能是6到8个人。债券品种这么多，根本不可能随时都有市场报价，而且买入价和卖出价之间的价差可能特别大。不是说你想买格兰德岛发行的某只债券，就能买得到。可能根本没有市场报价，就算你找到了一个卖家，他开的价格可能很离谱，比类似质地的其他债券贵很多。不是所有债券都这样。例如，俄亥俄州高速公路债、伊利诺伊州高速公路债等品种，它们的规模都在2亿美元以上，同一个可交易的债券品种，有成千上万的持有人。显然，这类债券的市场非常活跃。",[14,63,64],{},"按我的理解，债券的市场活跃程度主要受三个因素影响，按重要程度依次是：（1）债券的规模；（2）发行人的实力（同样是100,000美元规模的债券，一个是俄亥俄州发行的，一个是俄亥俄州一个无名小镇发行的，前者的市场比后者更活跃）；（3）发行人的口碑。目前，在债券市场中，推销最多的是新发行的债券。每周新发行的债券规模在2亿美元以上。债券发行市场的重点是把这些债券卖出去，无论它们的规模是大是小。所有的债券，在刚开始发行的时候，都被大力推销。推销结束后，各个债券的市场活跃程度各不相同，但是它们发行时的收益率却没有足够的差别，没充分反映推销结束后不同的市场活跃程度。我们在市场中经常会看到买入价和卖出价之间的价差达到15%的现象。何必买可能出现这种怪异行情的债券？此类债券没有活跃的市场，但交易商推销这些债券可以获得更高的利润。我们不会给大家买这样的债券。我们打算购买的债券的价差（即同一时间买入和卖出之间的差价）在2%到5%之间。你要是频繁交易的话，这个价差就实在太高了，但是对于长期投资者来说，算不了什么。关键是要远离市场活跃度低迷的债券，这些一般来说正是债券交易商最愿意推销的品种，它们推销这些债券更有利可图。",[10,66,67],{"id":67},"具体购买什么债券",[14,69,70],{},"我们可能会选择购买以下类型的债券：",[72,73,74],"blockquote",{},[14,75,76],{},"（1）收费公路、电力、水务等拥有巨额收入的大型公共事业公司发行的债券。许多此类债券的市场活跃程度非常高，很容易对发行主体进行定量分析，有的设有偿债基金，有的还具有其他有利因素，但被市场忽略了，没得到公允估值。\n（2）政府工业发展债券。有的政府部门将资产租赁给私营公司，这些政府部门可以发行此类债券。例如，俄亥俄州洛兰市拥有一个8000万美元的项目，租赁给了美国钢铁公司。政府发展部门发行债券筹集项目所需资金，并与美国钢铁公司签订绝对净租赁合约，用于偿还债券款项。为此类债券做信用背书的不是相关城市或州，这些债券的信用如何，主要取决于承租的公司。此类债券规模有几十亿，背后是许多大公司在支持，但是由于税法的变化，新发行的此类债券规模很小（每个项目平均不到500万美元）。在很长一段时间里，由于人们对此类债券存在很大的偏见，与信用状况类似的债券相比，它们的收益率高得多。人们的这种偏见在逐渐减弱，此类债券的溢价收益率也在降低，但是我觉得它们的收益率还是相当高的。我们的保险公司持有的大部分债券都是这个类型的。\n（3）如果你希望购买评级最高的免税债券，可以选择公共住房管理局发行的品种。这些债券由美国政府担保，它们的评级都是AAA。在有些州，受当地税法影响，本州发行的品种具有溢价，而且前两类债券都不符合你的需求，我会向你推荐公共住房管理局发行的品种，我不会从其他债券中选择，因为我不了解它们的信用状况。要是各位要求我购买你们所在州的债券，提前知会各位一下，我可能购买大量公共住房管理局发行的品种。此类品种用不着分散，它们的信用评级是最高的。\n（4）州政府直接或间接承担的债务。",[14,78,79],{},"讲到这，我也没提大城市发行的品种。该如何分析纽约市、芝加哥市、费城，我一无所知。（有一次，一个朋友对我说，纽瓦克市发行了收益率很高的债券，当地的黑手党很不高兴，觉得纽瓦克给他们丢脸了。）就拿纽约市来说，我承认，纽约市不太可能长期拖欠债务，但是要对纽约市进行具体分析，我做的分析不会你做的分析强多少。我研究债券的方法和研究股票差不多。有看不懂的，就跳过去。一个机会，我看不懂，就跳过去，就算别人很高明，能分析明白，而且能赚大钱，我也不在意。我最关心的是：我能从我能看懂的机会里赚钱，能把我能做对的判断做对。我们打算给你们大多数人购买5到10个品种。如果你只让我买你所在州的债券，我买的品种会少一些，可能仅限于公共住房管理局发行的债券。我们购买的单笔金额最好不低于25,000美元，规模能大一些的话，还是大一些比较好。小规模的债券在转卖的时候一般会非常吃亏。这个情况，你在买10,000美元的债券的时候，债券推销员一般不告诉你，在你往外卖的时候，他们才和你说。在二级市场，当卖家因为规模较小而给出较低的报价时，我们可能会破例，买入较小规模的债券。",[10,81,82],{"id":82},"可赎回债券",[14,84,85],{},"有的债券发行人有权将债券赎回，赎回条款对债券发行人非常有利，我们不买这样的债券。有的债券是40年后到期的，但是发行人有权在5或10年后以微小的溢价赎回，怎么能有人买这样的债券呢？这样的条款其实是这个意思：签订最初的合同之后，根据将来的情况变化，如果对发行人有利（对你不利），那就是40年的期限；如果对你有利（对发行人不利），那就是5年期限。这样的合同条款太不合理了。怎么能有这样的合同条款呢？因为债券投资者不明白这里面的状况，债券交易商也不会主动为客户争取权益。市场上有这样一种现象：两只完全相同的债券，一只具有非常不公平的赎回条款，另一只是不可赎回的，但收益率竟然一样，实在是让人难以理解。",[14,87,88],{},"其实，内布拉斯加州的大多数债券都具有非常不公平的赎回条款。可赎回条款对持有人不公平，而且收益率还和不可赎回债券差不多。",[14,90,91],{},"要避免这种不公平的条款，有两个办法：一个办法是买入完全不可赎回的债券；另一个办法是在买入价远远低于发行人的赎回价时，买入折价的债券，这就不怕赎回了。举个例子，一只债券的赎回价是103，你在60的时候买，虽然发行人有提前终止合约的权利（你却没这个权利），你也可以毫不在乎。洛杉矶水电局有一只债券，可以1999年到期，按100美元赎回，也可以1974年到期，按104美元赎回，发行人可以按对自己有利、但对持有人不利的情况选择何时赎回。本来有别的信用差不多的债券，而且不存在这种不公平的条款，收益率也差不多，有人还买洛杉矶水电局的这只债券，真是傻到家了。尽管如此，1969年10月，市场上就发行了这样一只债券，类似的债券每天都在发行。这个事是明摆着的，但我还是花了这么多篇幅写，因为这种债券还是一直在发售。显然许多投资者根本就不明白这种债券对自己多不公平，许多债券推销员也不想告诉他们。",[10,93,94],{"id":94},"债券的期限和计算",[14,96,97],{},"许多买债券的人在选择期限时的依据是，他们觉得要持有债券多长时间，或者他们觉得自己能活多长时间。这种做法没什么大错，但不是最符合逻辑的。选择债券期限的主要决定因素有三点：（1）收益率曲线的形状；（2）你对将来利率的预期；（3）报价波动有多大，你是否承受得了，是否想从中获利。这里面的第二点最重要，也是最不好说的。",[14,99,100],{},"我们先讲收益率曲线。在各方面的质地都相同的情况下，债券的期限不同，利率也不一样。以当前评级最高的债券为例，期限为6到9个月的，收益率是4.75％；2年的，5.00％；5年的，5.25％；10年的，5.50％；20年的，6.25％。当长期利率远高于短期利率时，我们说收益率曲线向上倾斜。在美国政府债券市场，最近的收益率曲线是向下倾斜的，在过去一年里，长期政府债券的收益率始终低于短期债券。有时候收益率曲线是非常平坦的，有时候是向上倾斜，然后趋于平坦（例如，向上倾斜十年，之后趋于平坦）。各位需要知道的是，收益率曲线会经常出现显著变化。从历史情况来看，当前的收益率曲线可能会出现向上倾斜的情况。在这种情况下，长期债券不会更值钱，只是和其他时期相比，购买期限更长的债券，获得的利息更高。如果收益率在几年内保持不变，则无论你打算持有多长时间，期限较长的债券都会比期限较短的债券给你带来更多的收益。",[14,102,103],{},"在选择债券期限时，第二个要考虑的因素是将来的利率水平。经常预测利率的人总是被打脸。一年前，我觉得利率不低，没过多长时间，事实就表明我完全错了。现在我也觉得利率不低，事实可能还会证明我不对。不管怎么样，判断是必须做的。你要是决定现在买短期品种，结果过几年再投资时利率大跌，你也一样是犯了大错。",[14,105,106],{},"最后要考虑的是，你能否承受得起市场报价的波动。这里面涉及债券投资的数学计算，理解起来可能有难度，但是你必须要知道是怎么算的。现在假设收益率曲线完全是平的，债券是不可赎回的。再假设当前的利率是5％，你买了两只债券，一只是2 年后到期，一只是20年后到期。假设一年后，新发行债券的收益率变成了3％，你想把自己的债券卖了。完全忽略市场差价、手续费等因素，原来买的2年期债券（现在剩一年了）能卖 1，019.60美元，原来的20年期债券（现在剩19年了）能卖1，288.10美元。按这些价格，对于买家来说，将支付的溢价摊销并将每只债券5％的现金流兑现后，获得的恰好是3％的收益率。对于买家来说，是支付1,288.10美元买你的票面利率为5％的19年期债券，还是支付1,000.00美元买新发行的票面利率为3％的债券（我们假设一年后的现行利率是3％），没任何区别。再假设利率变成了7％，还是不考虑手续费、资本利得税等因素。现在那只还有一年到期的债券，买家只会出981.00美元，那只还有19年到期的，只会出 791.60美元。因为他能买到利率为7％的新发行的债券，所以只有你的债券有折价，折价购买你票面利率为5％的债券和以 1,000.00 美元购买票面利率为7％的债券收益相同时，他才会买你的。",[14,108,109],{},"道理很简单。利率的波动越大、债券的期限越长，在到期之前，债券价值越容易出现暂时性的大起大落。有一点要指出的是，在第一个例子中，我们假设利率变成3％，如果我们购买的长期债券可以在五年后以面值赎回，那么它只能升到1,070.00美元，但是如果利率上涨到7％，这只债券跌的一样多。这说明了赎回条款是不合理的。",[14,111,112],{},"在过去二十年里，免税债券的利率一直在上涨，购买长期债券的投资者一直很吃亏。虽然如此，不是说买长期债券就不好。我们在上面的例子中讲了利率的上下波动，但在过去很长一段时间里，利率一直只朝一个方向波动。和以前相比，现在人们越来越觉得利率比较高，可能要下调了，而不是觉得利率太低，还有上升空间。",[14,114,115],{},"将来的普遍利率水平可能高，也可能低，概率是对半开，而且当前的收益率曲线是显著向上倾斜的，与买入短期债券相比，还是买长期不可赎回的债券赢面比较大。这是我现在得出的结论，所以我打算买入期限为10到20年的债券。如果你也看好这个期限范围内的债券，我们可以帮你挑选。如果你想买期限较短的，我们就帮不上忙了，因为我们没研究期限较短的。",[14,117,118],{},"请先回头阅读债券价格如何因利率变化而变动的部分，然后再决定是否购买20年期的债券。如果你一直持有到期，你会获得合约规定的利率，如果你提前卖出，会受到我们已经计算过的情形的影响，可能赚，也可能赔。在很长时间内，债券质地会逐渐发生变化，债券价格也因此产生变动。但是对于免税债券来说，无论在现在还是将来，引起价格变动的主要因素还是利率的变化。",[10,120,121],{"id":121},"折价债券与足额息票债券",[14,123,124],{},"在前面的内容里，你可能注意到了，现在要买一只收益率为7％、期限为19年的债券的话，你有两个选择：一个是买入票面利率为7％、期限为19年的债券；另一个是买入票面利率为5％、价格为791.60美元、19年后支付给你1,000.00 美元的债券。每半年计算一次复利，买这两只债券都恰好可以实现7％的收益率。从数学计算上来看，这两只债券没差别。如果买的是免税债券，就有些复杂了。70.00美元的利息是完全免税的。折价买入的那只债券，每年50美元的利息是免税的，但是在19年后有208.40美元的资本利得。按照现行税法，如果你只有这一部分实现的折价收益需要交纳资本利得税，只要交很少的税就行了；如果你除了这笔收益，还有其他金额很大的资本利得，则最多可能交纳70多美元的税（新税法规定资本利得税税率是35％，1972年，金额较大的资本利得，税率略高于35％）。除此之外，可能还要因这部分资本利得而交纳州政府征收的税款。",[14,126,127],{},"显然，考虑到上述因素，你不会支付791.60美元买票面利率为5％的债券，而是会选择支付1,000.00 美元买票面利率为7％的债券。别人和你想的一样。正因为如此，质地相同、期限相同的债券，如果票面利率较低而且存在折价，那么与当前票面利率较高的债券相比，折价债券的毛收益率会更高一些。",[14,129,130],{},"有意思的是，对于大多数人来说，由此产生的较高的毛收益率带来的补偿高于可能要支付的税款。原因有几点。首先，谁都不知道债券到期后税法会怎么规定，先假设将来的税率比现在高，也有道理。其次，一只债券票面利率为5％、面值为1,000.00美元、期限为19年、价格为791.60美元，另一只债券票面利率 7％、面值为1,000.00美元、期限相同、价格为面值，人们还是愿意选能现在就把较高的收益装在口袋里的。持有票面利率为5％的债券，支付791.60美元，获得的当前收益率只有6.3％左右，到期后得到208.40 美元才能实现 7％的收益率。最后要说的一点是当前乃至将来影响折价债券价格的最重要因素，由于1969年《税法改革法案》中的银行税制改革规定，银行不会再参与购买折价免税债券了。银行一直以来都是免税债券的最大买家和持有者。现在它们不能参与折价免税债券的买卖了，对这个细分市场的供求关系造成了重大影响。这样一来，有些个人投资者在折价免税债券市场中可能更有优势，特别是那些在将来债券到期或卖出时税档比较低的个人投资者。",[14,132,133],{},"在充分合理的估算你将来的税率的前提下，如果实际税后收益率特别高，我会帮你购买折价债券。我知道有些合伙人更愿意买足额息票债券，尽管它们的实际收益率较低，但他们想获得较高的当前现金收益率。如果你是这样的情况，请告诉我，我们会帮你选择足额息票债券。",[10,135,136],{"id":136},"流程安排",[14,138,139],{},"我计划整个三月份都留在办公室（包括星期六，3月7日除外），任何合伙人都可以和我面谈或通过电话交谈。为了方便安排时间，请联系格拉迪斯或我预约。我对各位就一个请求，我们交谈之前，请务必尽量读懂这封信的内容。大家读完这封信也能明白，要是所有内容都要向每个合伙人重复讲一遍，实在不可能。",[14,141,142],{},"如果需要我们帮助购买债券，你需要告诉我们下列信息：",[72,144,145],{},[14,146,147],{},"（1）是否出于本地征税原因考虑，只希望购买本州发行的债券；\n（2）是否只想购买足额息票债券，还是允许我们自由选择最佳品种；\n（3）在10年到20年的范围内，你打算购买多少年期限的，还是允许我们 替你选择；\n（4）你要投资的金额是多少，我们买入的金额可能略低于你指定的数字，但不 会超过你所说的金额；\n（5）债券应该交付到哪个银行。",[14,149,150],{},"在买入债券时，我们会通过电话或信件为你提供建议。具体的操作，主要由比尔和 约翰负责。在任何一笔交易中，我们中的任何人都不会从中获取任何利润，这个不 必说了。如有具体操作相关问题，请咨询约翰或比尔，因为我可能忙不过来，而且 在具体交易方面，他们更熟悉。3月31日后的几个月时间里，我应该不会经常去 办公室。如果有事的话，请在3月31日之前找我。所有交易可能要4月份才能 完成，具体操作由比尔负责。",[14,152,153],{},"信里说了，债券的品种太多了，现在我们说不好会买哪些。免税债券市场不太像股 市，更像房地产市场。几十万个品种，各有各的特点，有些是没卖家的，有些是卖家 不愿卖的，有些是卖家急着卖的。买哪个最好呢？我们要选质地最好的、最符合你的 需求的，而且卖家愿意往外卖的。每周都有几亿美元的新债券发行，这些新发行的品 种是我们参照比较的标准。有些在二级市场上已经流通的债券可能比新发行的更合 适。具体如何，只有在准备买的时候，才能知道。",[14,155,156],{},"市场是变化的，但是从现在的情况看，期限为20年、税收收益率为6.5%左右（公 共住房管理局发行的品种除外）的债券，应该很容易就能买到。",[14,158,159],{},"沃伦 E. 巴菲特谨上",{"title":161,"searchDepth":162,"depth":162,"links":163},"",2,[],"致股东信",null,"1970年2月巴菲特致合伙人信，完成合伙基金清算及资金分配说明","md",{},true,41,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"description":166},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信｜巴菲特","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin","wwLVovQ_VSQBoQq-gp3InZ08nrKOUaynbFixggyH5V0","buffett",[179,183,187,191,194,197,200,204,207,210,214,217,220,224,227,230,234,237,240,244,247,250,254,257,260,264,267,270,274,277,280,284,287,290,294,297,300,304,307,310,314,317,320,324,327,330,334,337,340,344,347,350,354,357,360,364,367,370,374,377,380,384,387,390,394,397,400,404,407,410,414,417,420,424,427,430,434,437,440,444,447,450,454,457,460,464,467,470,474,477,480,484,487,490,494,497,500,504,507,510,514,517,521,524,528,531,535,538,542,545,549,552,556,559,560,563,567,570,574,577,581,584,588,591,595,598,602,605,609,612,616,619,623,626,630,633,637,640,644,647,651,654,658,661,665,668,672,675,679,682,686,689,693,696,700,703,707,710,714,717,721,724,728,731,735,738,742,745,749,752,756,759,763,766,770,773,777,780,784,787,791,794,798,801,805,808,812,815,819,822,826,829,833,836,840,843,847,850,854,857,861,864,868,871,875,878,882,885,889,892,896,899,903,906,910,913,917,920,924,927,931,934,938,941,945,948,952,955,959,962,966,969,973,976,980,984,988,992,996,1000,1004,1008,1012,1016,1020,1024,1028,1032,1036,1040,1044,1048,1052,1056,1060,1064,1068,1072,1076,1080,1084,1088,1092,1096,1100,1104,1108,1112,1116,1120,1124,1128,1132,1136,1140,1144,1148,1152,1156,1160,1164,1168,1172,1176],{"title":180,"slug":181,"category":164,"order":182},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":184,"slug":185,"category":186,"order":182},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":188,"slug":189,"category":190,"order":182},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":192,"slug":193,"category":164,"order":162},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":195,"slug":196,"category":186,"order":162},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":198,"slug":199,"category":190,"order":162},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":201,"slug":202,"category":164,"order":203},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":205,"slug":206,"category":186,"order":203},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":208,"slug":209,"category":190,"order":203},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":211,"slug":212,"category":164,"order":213},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":215,"slug":216,"category":186,"order":213},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":218,"slug":219,"category":190,"order":213},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":221,"slug":222,"category":164,"order":223},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":225,"slug":226,"category":186,"order":223},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":228,"slug":229,"category":190,"order":223},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":231,"slug":232,"category":164,"order":233},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":235,"slug":236,"category":186,"order":233},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":238,"slug":239,"category":190,"order":233},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":241,"slug":242,"category":164,"order":243},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":245,"slug":246,"category":186,"order":243},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":248,"slug":249,"category":190,"order":243},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":251,"slug":252,"category":164,"order":253},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":255,"slug":256,"category":186,"order":253},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":258,"slug":259,"category":190,"order":253},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":261,"slug":262,"category":164,"order":263},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":265,"slug":266,"category":186,"order":263},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":268,"slug":269,"category":190,"order":263},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":271,"slug":272,"category":164,"order":273},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":275,"slug":276,"category":186,"order":273},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":278,"slug":279,"category":190,"order":273},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":281,"slug":282,"category":164,"order":283},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":285,"slug":286,"category":186,"order":283},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":288,"slug":289,"category":190,"order":283},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":291,"slug":292,"category":164,"order":293},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":295,"slug":296,"category":186,"order":293},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":298,"slug":299,"category":190,"order":293},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":301,"slug":302,"category":164,"order":303},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":305,"slug":306,"category":186,"order":303},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":308,"slug":309,"category":190,"order":303},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":311,"slug":312,"category":164,"order":313},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":315,"slug":316,"category":186,"order":313},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":318,"slug":319,"category":190,"order":313},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":321,"slug":322,"category":164,"order":323},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":325,"slug":326,"category":186,"order":323},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":328,"slug":329,"category":190,"order":323},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":331,"slug":332,"category":164,"order":333},"1964 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巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":687,"slug":688,"category":186,"order":685},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":690,"slug":691,"category":164,"order":692},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":694,"slug":695,"category":186,"order":692},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":697,"slug":698,"category":164,"order":699},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":701,"slug":702,"category":186,"order":699},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":704,"slug":705,"category":164,"order":706},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":708,"slug":709,"category":186,"order":706},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":711,"slug":712,"category":164,"order":713},"1992 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巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":743,"slug":744,"category":186,"order":741},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":746,"slug":747,"category":164,"order":748},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":750,"slug":751,"category":186,"order":748},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":753,"slug":754,"category":164,"order":755},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":757,"slug":758,"category":186,"order":755},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":760,"slug":761,"category":164,"order":762},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":764,"slug":765,"category":186,"order":762},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":767,"slug":768,"category":164,"order":769},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":771,"slug":772,"category":186,"order":769},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":774,"slug":775,"category":164,"order":776},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":778,"slug":779,"category":186,"order":776},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":781,"slug":782,"category":164,"order":783},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":785,"slug":786,"category":186,"order":783},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":788,"slug":789,"category":164,"order":790},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":792,"slug":793,"category":186,"order":790},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":795,"slug":796,"category":164,"order":797},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":799,"slug":800,"category":186,"order":797},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":802,"slug":803,"category":164,"order":804},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":806,"slug":807,"category":186,"order":804},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":809,"slug":810,"category":164,"order":811},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":813,"slug":814,"category":186,"order":811},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":816,"slug":817,"category":164,"order":818},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":820,"slug":821,"category":186,"order":818},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":823,"slug":824,"category":164,"order":825},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":827,"slug":828,"category":186,"order":825},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":830,"slug":831,"category":164,"order":832},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":834,"slug":835,"category":186,"order":832},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":837,"slug":838,"category":164,"order":839},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":841,"slug":842,"category":186,"order":839},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":844,"slug":845,"category":164,"order":846},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":848,"slug":849,"category":186,"order":846},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":851,"slug":852,"category":164,"order":853},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":855,"slug":856,"category":186,"order":853},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":858,"slug":859,"category":164,"order":860},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":862,"slug":863,"category":186,"order":860},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":865,"slug":866,"category":164,"order":867},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":869,"slug":870,"category":186,"order":867},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":872,"slug":873,"category":164,"order":874},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":876,"slug":877,"category":186,"order":874},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":879,"slug":880,"category":164,"order":881},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":883,"slug":884,"category":186,"order":881},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":886,"slug":887,"category":164,"order":888},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":890,"slug":891,"category":186,"order":888},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":893,"slug":894,"category":164,"order":895},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":897,"slug":898,"category":186,"order":895},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":900,"slug":901,"category":164,"order":902},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":904,"slug":905,"category":186,"order":902},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":907,"slug":908,"category":164,"order":909},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":911,"slug":912,"category":186,"order":909},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":914,"slug":915,"category":164,"order":916},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":918,"slug":919,"category":186,"order":916},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":921,"slug":922,"category":164,"order":923},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":925,"slug":926,"category":186,"order":923},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":928,"slug":929,"category":164,"order":930},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":932,"slug":933,"category":186,"order":930},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":935,"slug":936,"category":164,"order":937},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":939,"slug":940,"category":186,"order":937},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":942,"slug":943,"category":164,"order":944},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":946,"slug":947,"category":186,"order":944},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":949,"slug":950,"category":164,"order":951},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":953,"slug":954,"category":186,"order":951},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":956,"slug":957,"category":164,"order":958},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":960,"slug":961,"category":186,"order":958},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":963,"slug":964,"category":164,"order":965},"2025 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