[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2745},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1209,"library-sidebar-dao":2211,"library-sidebar-models":2513},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1195,"date":1196,"description":1197,"extension":1198,"meta":1199,"navigation":1200,"order":1201,"path":1202,"seo":1203,"seoDescription":1197,"seoTitle":1204,"slug":1205,"stem":1206,"__hash__":1207,"_collection":1208},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1982 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1191},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,74,77,80,83,86,89,92,95,98,101,104,107,546,549,552,555,558,561,773,776,779,782,785,788,791,794,968,974,977,980,983,986,989,992,995,998,1001,1004,1007,1010,1013,1016,1019,1022,1025,1028,1031,1034,1037,1040,1043,1046,1049,1052,1055,1058,1061,1064,1067,1070,1073,1080,1083,1086,1089,1092,1099,1102,1109,1116,1119,1122,1125,1128,1131,1134,1137,1140,1143,1146,1149,1152,1155,1158,1161,1164,1167,1170,1173,1176,1179,1182,1185,1188],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1982-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,21,22],{},"1982年的经营收益为3,150万美元，仅相当于期初股东权益的9.8%（股权投资按成本计价），低于1981年的15.2%，更远低于1978年19.4%的近年高点。这一下降主要源于以下原因：",[14,24,25],{},"(1) 保险承保业绩大幅恶化；",[14,27,28],{},"(2) 股东权益大幅扩张，但我们直接经营的业务却未能同步增长；以及",[14,30,31],{},"(3) 我们持续加大对非控股、非经营企业的投资力度；但按会计准则，我们按比例应享有的大部分收益不能计入伯克希尔的报告收益中。",[14,33,34],{},"几年前我曾告诉大家，经营收益与股东权益的比率（再加上若干调整变量）是衡量企业单一年度经营表现最重要的标尺。虽然我们仍然相信这一标准适用于绝大多数公司，但不得不承认，它对伯克希尔的适用性已大不如前。你们对这种说法保持怀疑是应该的——业绩好的时候，很少有人会丢掉衡量标准；但当业绩变差时，大多数管理层倾向于换掉标准，而不是换掉自己。",[14,36,37],{},"面对这样的困境，一套更灵活的衡量体系自然应运而生：先把业绩之箭射到一面空白的标靶上，然后再仔细地把靶心画在箭头周围。我们一般信奉预先设定、长期不变的小靶心。但基于上述第(3)项原因的重要性日益增加（详见下文），我们认为放弃经营收益\u002F股东权益这个靶心是合理的。",[10,39,40],{"id":40},"未列报的所有者权益收益",[14,42,43],{},"附列的财务报表所反映的\"会计\"收益，通常包括了我们在持股比例达到20%以上的被投资企业中按比例应享有的收益。然而，持股比例低于20%时，我们的会计数字中只计入实际收到的现金股利；这些持股不到20%的企业的未分配收益则被完全忽略。",[14,45,46],{},"当然也有少数例外。比如，我们持有盖可保险 (GEICO Corporation) 约35%的股权，但由于我们已将投票权委托出去，会计上被视同持股不到20%。因此，1982年我们从GEICO收到的税后股利350万美元，是唯一计入\"会计\"收益的项目。另外2,300万美元——也就是我们在GEICO 1982年未分配经营收益中应享有的份额——则被完全排除在报告收益之外。如果GEICO 1982年赚得更少，但多发了100万美元的股利，我们的报告收益反而会增加，尽管企业经营实际变差了。反过来，如果GEICO额外多赚1亿美元并全部留存，我们的报告收益也不会有任何变化。很显然，\"会计收益\"有时会严重扭曲经济现实。",[14,48,49],{},"我们更偏好\"经济收益\"这个概念——它包含了所有未分配收益，不管持股比例高低。在我们看来，一家企业留存收益对全体股东的价值，取决于这些收益的运用效率，而不是你持股比例的大小。如果你在过去十年中持有伯克希尔万分之一的股份，无论你采用什么会计制度，你都按比例充分享受到了我们留存收益所带来的经济利益，与持股20%以上的\"魔法门槛\"没有任何差别。但如果过去十年中，你百分之百拥有许多家资本密集型企业，按照标准会计方法，这些留存收益虽然百分之百精确地记录在你的账上，但它们实际带来的经济价值微乎其微，甚至为零。这不是在批评会计准则——我们可不想接手设计一套更好的制度。我只是想说，管理层和投资者都必须明白：会计数字是企业估值的起点，而非终点。",[14,51,52],{},"在大多数公司中，低于20%的持股并不重要（部分原因或许在于，它们会妨碍管理层最大化那个受人追捧的报告收益数字），我们刚才讨论的会计收益与经济收益之间的差异也无关紧要。但就我们自身而言，这类持股的重要性巨大且持续增长。正是因为其规模之大，我们认为报告的经营收益数字对伯克希尔的参考意义已相当有限。",[14,54,55],{},"在1981年年报中，我们预测1982年我们在四大非控股公司中应享有的未分配收益将合计超过3,500万美元。今年，其中三家公司——盖可保险 (GEICO)、通用食品 (General Foods) 和华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post) ——的持股比例未变，第四家雷诺工业 (R. J. Reynolds Industries) 则大幅增持，这四家公司1982年未分配经营收益中我们应享有的份额远超4,000万美元。这个数字完全没有反映在我们的报告收益中——我们仅仅列报了从这些公司收到的1,400万美元现金股利。当然，我们还有一些规模较小的非控股投资，合计也有相当可观的未分配收益。",[14,57,58],{},"我们重视这些数字的大致规模，但没必要精确到小数点后十位。伯克希尔要将这些留存收益通过市场增值加以变现，需缴纳金额可观但尚不确定的税款。虽然多年来，这些公司的留存收益总体上至少已转化为等量的市场价值，但这种转化在不同公司之间极不均衡，在时间节奏上也毫无规律、难以预测。",[14,60,61],{},"然而，正是这种不均衡和不规律性，反而为那些以价值为导向、购买企业部分股权的投资者提供了大好机会。这类投资者几乎可以从全部美国大型企业中挑选标的，其中许多公司的质地远优于通过协商谈判能整体收购到的企业。而且，部分股权的购买是在拍卖市场上进行的，在这个市场上定价的参与者，其行为模式有时候就像一群时而狂躁、时而抑郁的旅鼠。",[14,63,64],{},"在这个巨大的拍卖市场中，我们的工作就是挑选那些具备特定经济特征的企业——使其每一美元的留存收益最终能转化为至少一美元的市场价值。尽管犯了不少错误，到目前为止我们还是达成了这个目标。在此过程中，我们得到了亚瑟·奥肯 (Arthur Okun) 为经济学家守护的那位圣人——\"圣抵消\"——的大力协助。也就是说，在某些投资中，属于我们的留存收益对市场价值的影响微乎其微甚至是负面的，但在另一些重要的投资中，被投资公司留存的一美元却转化为了两美元甚至更多的市场价值。到目前为止，超额表现者远远弥补了落后者的不足。如果我们能够保持这样的记录，那就将验证我们致力于最大化\"经济收益\"的努力是正确的，不管这对\"会计收益\"有何影响。",[14,66,67],{},"我们的部分股权投资方式固然令人满意，但真正让我们手舞足蹈的，是以合理的价格百分之百收购一家优秀企业。这样的壮举我们偶尔做到过（也期望再次做到），但这是一项异常困难的工作——远比以低价买入部分股权要难得多。",[14,69,70],{},"回顾1982年其他公司完成的几笔大型收购，我们的反应不是羡慕，而是庆幸我们没有参与其中。因为在许多收购案中，管理层的理智在肾上腺素的冲击下节节败退。追逐的刺激让追逐者对猎物到手后的后果视而不见。帕斯卡 (Pascal) 的观察恰如其分：\"让我震惊的是，人的一切不幸，都源于他们无法安安静静地待在一个房间里。\"",[14,72,73],{},"（你们的董事长去年也不安分地多次离开了那个房间，差点成了\"1982年收购闹剧\"的主角。回想起来，我们这一年最大的成就，竟然是一笔我们已经坚定承诺要做的巨额收购，因为完全不在我们控制范围内的原因而告吹了。如果这笔交易成了，它将消耗大量的时间和精力，换来的却是一个极不确定的结果。如果我们要在这份报告中加几张图表，来描绘过去一年令人欣喜的商业进展，那么描绘这笔流产交易最合适的插图，就是两页空白。）",[14,75,76],{},"只有在我们能够以诱人的价格买到诱人企业的部分股权时，我们的部分所有权策略才能稳健地延续下去。我们需要一个定价适中的股票市场来助我们一臂之力。市场就像上帝一样，帮助那些自助的人。但与上帝不同的是，市场不会原谅那些不知道自己在做什么的人。对投资者来说，即便是一家极其优秀的公司，买入价格过高就可能抵消其后十年靓丽的业务发展。",[14,78,79],{},"如果股市大幅走高，我们有效运用资本进行部分股权投资的能力就会减弱甚至完全丧失。这种情况会周期性地出现：就在十年前，两极化市场狂热达到顶峰时（高股本回报率的公司被机构投资者捧上了天），伯克希尔的保险子公司持有的股票市值仅1,800万美元（不含蓝筹印花 (Blue Chip Stamps) 的权益）。当时，这类股权投资约占我们保险公司投资组合的15%，而现在这一比例是80%。1972年和1982年一样，也有许多优秀的企业，但1972年股票市场对这些企业的定价简直荒谬。虽然股价高涨会让我们的业绩暂时好看，但对我们的长期商业前景弊大于利。而目前，我们已经看到了这个问题的早期端倪。",[10,81,82],{"id":82},"长期公司业绩",[14,84,85],{},"1982年，将保险子公司持有的股权投资按市值计算（减去未实现收益若变现时应缴的资本利得税），我们的净资产增加了2.08亿美元。以期初净资产5.19亿美元为基础，增长幅度为40%。",[14,87,88],{},"在现任管理层的18年任期内，每股账面价值从19.46美元增长到了737.43美元，年复合增长率为22.0%。可以肯定的是，这个比率未来必将下降。几何级数增长终究会被自身的重力所拖慢。",[14,90,91],{},"伯克希尔的经济目标依然是：实现远高于美国一般大型企业的长期回报率。我们愿意以部分或全部股权的方式买入具有竞争优势的企业，再加上对买入价格的合理自律，应该能给我们实现这一目标的良好机会。",[14,93,94],{},"今年，非控股企业的市值涨幅再次超过了这些企业内在经济价值的增长。举例来说，我们2.08亿美元收益中有7,900万美元归因于GEICO股价的上涨。这家公司持续表现出色，GEICO基本商业理念的竞争力以及杰克·伯恩 (Jack Byrne) 的管理才能，让我们越来越佩服。（虽然在顶尖商学院的教科书里找不到\"让杰克来干\"这条信条，但作为我们的经营准则，效果相当不错。）",[14,96,97],{},"然而，GEICO在过去两年市值的增长远超其内在商业价值的增长——尽管后者本身已十分亮眼。我们一直预期这种有利的偏差迟早会出现，因为投资者的认知正在逐步向商业现实靠拢。我们期待未来内在商业价值继续大幅增长，并最终——尽管过程不会一帆风顺——得到市场的充分认可。",[14,99,100],{},"但年复一年的波动不可能总对我们有利。即便我们的非控股企业在经济意义上继续表现优异，它们在股市中的表现也会有低迷的年份。届时我们的净资产可能大幅缩水。我们不会为此感到沮丧——如果这些企业仍然有吸引力，而我们手头又有现金，那我们只需以更优惠的价格继续买入就是了。",[10,102,103],{"id":103},"报告收益的来源",[14,105,106],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔报告收益的各项来源。1981年和1982年，伯克希尔持有蓝筹印花约60%的股权，后者又持有韦斯科金融 (Wesco Financial Corporation) 80%的股权。该表显示了各经营实体的总经营收益，以及伯克希尔所占的份额。各经营实体因非常规资产出售所产生的重大损益，均汇总在表末\"证券交易\"一栏中，不包含在经营收益之内。",[108,109,110,133],"table",{},[111,112,113],"thead",{},[114,115,116,119,122,124,126,128,131],"tr",{},[117,118],"th",{},[117,120,121],{},"税前收益",[117,123,121],{},[117,125,121],{},[117,127,121],{},[117,129,130],{},"税后净收益",[117,132,130],{},[134,135,136,155,174,191,208,229,250,271,293,316,339,362,385,408,431,454,477,500,523],"tbody",{},[114,137,138,141,144,146,149,151,153],{},[139,140],"td",{},[139,142,143],{},"合计",[139,145,143],{},[139,147,148],{},"伯克希尔应占",[139,150,148],{},[139,152,148],{},[139,154,148],{},[114,156,157,160,163,166,168,170,172],{},[139,158,159],{},"（千美元）",[139,161,162],{},"1982",[139,164,165],{},"1981",[139,167,162],{},[139,169,165],{},[139,171,162],{},[139,173,165],{},[114,175,176,179,181,183,185,187,189],{},[139,177,178],{},"经营收益：",[139,180],{},[139,182],{},[139,184],{},[139,186],{},[139,188],{},[139,190],{},[114,192,193,196,198,200,202,204,206],{},[139,194,195],{},"保险集团：",[139,197],{},[139,199],{},[139,201],{},[139,203],{},[139,205],{},[139,207],{},[114,209,210,213,216,219,221,223,226],{},[139,211,212],{},"承保损益",[139,214,215],{},"$ (21,558)",[139,217,218],{},"$ 1,478",[139,220,215],{},[139,222,218],{},[139,224,225],{},"$ (11,345)",[139,227,228],{},"$ 798",[114,230,231,234,237,240,242,244,247],{},[139,232,233],{},"净投资收益",[139,235,236],{},"41,620",[139,238,239],{},"38,823",[139,241,236],{},[139,243,239],{},[139,245,246],{},"35,270",[139,248,249],{},"32,401",[114,251,252,255,258,261,263,265,268],{},[139,253,254],{},"伯克希尔-沃姆贝克纺织",[139,256,257],{},"(1,545)",[139,259,260],{},"(2,669)",[139,262,257],{},[139,264,260],{},[139,266,267],{},"(862)",[139,269,270],{},"(1,493)",[114,272,273,276,279,282,285,287,290],{},[139,274,275],{},"联合零售",[139,277,278],{},"(914)",[139,280,281],{},"1,763",[139,283,284],{},"914",[139,286,281],{},[139,288,289],{},"446",[139,291,292],{},"759",[114,294,295,298,301,304,307,310,313],{},[139,296,297],{},"喜诗糖果",[139,299,300],{},"23,884",[139,302,303],{},"20,961",[139,305,306],{},"14,235",[139,308,309],{},"12,493",[139,311,312],{},"6,914",[139,314,315],{},"5,910",[114,317,318,321,324,327,330,333,336],{},[139,319,320],{},"布法罗晚报",[139,322,323],{},"(1,215)",[139,325,326],{},"(1,217)",[139,328,329],{},"(724)",[139,331,332],{},"(725)",[139,334,335],{},"(226)",[139,337,338],{},"(320)",[114,340,341,344,347,350,353,356,359],{},[139,342,343],{},"蓝筹印花-母公司",[139,345,346],{},"4,182",[139,348,349],{},"3,642",[139,351,352],{},"2,492",[139,354,355],{},"2,171",[139,357,358],{},"2,472",[139,360,361],{},"2,134",[114,363,364,367,370,373,376,379,382],{},[139,365,366],{},"韦斯科金融-母公司",[139,368,369],{},"6,156",[139,371,372],{},"4,495",[139,374,375],{},"2,937",[139,377,378],{},"2,145",[139,380,381],{},"2,210",[139,383,384],{},"1,590",[114,386,387,390,393,396,399,402,405],{},[139,388,389],{},"互助储贷",[139,391,392],{},"(6)",[139,394,395],{},"1,605",[139,397,398],{},"(2)",[139,400,401],{},"766",[139,403,404],{},"1,524",[139,406,407],{},"1,536",[114,409,410,413,416,419,422,425,428],{},[139,411,412],{},"精密钢铁",[139,414,415],{},"1,035",[139,417,418],{},"3,453",[139,420,421],{},"493",[139,423,424],{},"1,648",[139,426,427],{},"265",[139,429,430],{},"841",[114,432,433,436,439,442,445,448,451],{},[139,434,435],{},"债务利息",[139,437,438],{},"(14,996)",[139,440,441],{},"(14,656)",[139,443,444],{},"(12,977)",[139,446,447],{},"(12,649)",[139,449,450],{},"(6,951)",[139,452,453],{},"(6,671)",[114,455,456,459,462,465,468,471,474],{},[139,457,458],{},"其他*",[139,460,461],{},"2,631",[139,463,464],{},"2,985",[139,466,467],{},"1,857",[139,469,470],{},"1,992",[139,472,473],{},"1,780",[139,475,476],{},"1,936",[114,478,479,482,485,488,491,494,497],{},[139,480,481],{},"经营收益合计",[139,483,484],{},"41,102",[139,486,487],{},"60,663",[139,489,490],{},"27,742",[139,492,493],{},"47,236",[139,495,496],{},"31,497",[139,498,499],{},"39,421",[114,501,502,505,508,511,514,517,520],{},[139,503,504],{},"已实现证券利得及非常规资产出售损益",[139,506,507],{},"36,651",[139,509,510],{},"37,801",[139,512,513],{},"21,875",[139,515,516],{},"33,150",[139,518,519],{},"14,877",[139,521,522],{},"23,183",[114,524,525,528,531,534,537,540,543],{},[139,526,527],{},"总收益——全部实体",[139,529,530],{},"$ 77,753",[139,532,533],{},"$ 98,464",[139,535,536],{},"$ 49,617",[139,538,539],{},"$ 80,386",[139,541,542],{},"$ 46,374",[139,544,545],{},"$ 62,604",[14,547,548],{},"* \"其他\"科目包含因收购企业产生的商誉摊销（即喜诗糖果、互助储贷和布法罗晚报）。",[14,550,551],{},"在本报告第45-61页，我们转载了蓝筹印花和韦斯科公司主要管理人员的叙述性报告，其中描述了1982年的经营情况。伯克希尔股东如需索取任何一家公司的完整年报，请联系蓝筹印花的罗伯特·H·伯德 (Robert H. Bird) 先生（地址：5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040）或韦斯科金融的珍妮·利奇 (Jeanne Leach) 女士（地址：315 East Colorado Boulevard, Pasadena, California 91109）。",[14,553,554],{},"我相信你们会觉得蓝筹印花关于布法罗报纸业务进展的记述格外有趣。目前全美仅有14个城市的日报工作日发行量超过《布法罗新闻报》(Buffalo News)。但真正精彩的故事在于周日版发行量的增长。六年前，在《布法罗新闻报》推出周日版之前，历史悠久的《快递快报》(Courier-Express) 是布法罗唯一的周日报纸，发行量为27.2万份。现在《布法罗新闻报》的周日发行量达到36.7万份，增长了35%——尽管主要发行区域内的家庭数量在这六年中几乎没有变化。据我所知，在全美那些拥有七天出版历史的城市中，没有一个城市的周日报纸家庭购买率能以如此速度增长。恰恰相反，大多数城市的家庭渗透率增长微乎其微，甚至原地踏步。我们在布法罗的核心管理团队——亨利·厄本 (Henry Urban)、斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey)、默里·莱特 (Murray Light)、克莱德·平森 (Clyde Pinson)、戴夫·佩罗纳 (Dave Perona) 和迪克·费瑟 (Dick Feather) ——在周日读者群这一无与伦比的扩张中功不可没。",[14,556,557],{},"正如我们前面所说，非控股公司中我们应享有的未分配收益，其重要性现在已完全不亚于上表中详列的报告经营收益。当然，非控股公司的已分配收益（股利）主要通过保险集团收益中的\"净投资收益\"项目进入该表。",[14,559,560],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔在那些仅将股利计入我们收益的非控股公司中的持股情况。",[108,562,563,579],{},[111,564,565],{},[114,566,567,570,573,576],{},[117,568,569],{},"持股数量",[117,571,572],{},"公司",[117,574,575],{},"成本（千美元）",[117,577,578],{},"市值（千美元）",[134,580,581,595,609,623,637,651,665,679,693,707,721,735,747,760],{},[114,582,583,586,589,592],{},[139,584,585],{},"460,650 (a)",[139,587,588],{},"联合出版公司 (Affiliated Publications, Inc.)",[139,590,591],{},"$ 3,516",[139,593,594],{},"$ 16,929",[114,596,597,600,603,606],{},[139,598,599],{},"908,800 (c)",[139,601,602],{},"克拉姆与福斯特 (Crum & Forster)",[139,604,605],{},"47,144",[139,607,608],{},"48,962",[114,610,611,614,617,620],{},[139,612,613],{},"2,101,244 (b)",[139,615,616],{},"通用食品 (General Foods, Inc.)",[139,618,619],{},"66,277",[139,621,622],{},"83,680",[114,624,625,628,631,634],{},[139,626,627],{},"7,200,000 (a)",[139,629,630],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO Corporation)",[139,632,633],{},"47,138",[139,635,636],{},"309,600",[114,638,639,642,645,648],{},[139,640,641],{},"2,379,200 (a)",[139,643,644],{},"汉迪与哈曼 (Handy & Harman)",[139,646,647],{},"27,318",[139,649,650],{},"46,692",[114,652,653,656,659,662],{},[139,654,655],{},"711,180 (a)",[139,657,658],{},"英特帕布力克集团 (Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.)",[139,660,661],{},"4,531",[139,663,664],{},"34,314",[114,666,667,670,673,676],{},[139,668,669],{},"282,500 (a)",[139,671,672],{},"媒体综合公司 (Media General)",[139,674,675],{},"4,545",[139,677,678],{},"12,289",[114,680,681,684,687,690],{},[139,682,683],{},"391,400 (a)",[139,685,686],{},"奥美国际 (Ogilvy & Mather Int'l. Inc.)",[139,688,689],{},"3,709",[139,691,692],{},"17,319",[114,694,695,698,701,704],{},[139,696,697],{},"3,107,675 (b)",[139,699,700],{},"雷诺工业 (R. J. Reynolds Industries)",[139,702,703],{},"142,343",[139,705,706],{},"158,715",[114,708,709,712,715,718],{},[139,710,711],{},"1,531,391 (a)",[139,713,714],{},"时代公司 (Time, Inc.)",[139,716,717],{},"45,273",[139,719,720],{},"79,824",[114,722,723,726,729,732],{},[139,724,725],{},"1,868,600 (a)",[139,727,728],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company)",[139,730,731],{},"10,628",[139,733,734],{},"103,240",[114,736,737,739,741,744],{},[139,738],{},[139,740],{},[139,742,743],{},"$402,422",[139,745,746],{},"$911,564",[114,748,749,751,754,757],{},[139,750],{},[139,752,753],{},"其他普通股持仓",[139,755,756],{},"21,611",[139,758,759],{},"34,058",[114,761,762,764,767,770],{},[139,763],{},[139,765,766],{},"普通股合计",[139,768,769],{},"$ 424,033",[139,771,772],{},"$ 945,622",[14,774,775],{},"(a) 全部由伯克希尔或其保险子公司持有。",[14,777,778],{},"(b) 由蓝筹印花和\u002F或韦斯科持有。所有数字均代表伯克希尔在该集团更大总持仓中的净权益。",[14,780,781],{},"(c) 作为现金替代品临时持有。",[14,783,784],{},"如果你还没注意到的话，这张表有个重要的投资经验值得分享：选股时，念旧情绪必须给予足够的重视。我们最大的两笔未实现收益来自华盛顿邮报和GEICO——你们的董事长分别在13岁和20岁时就与这两家公司初结商缘。在迷失了大约25年之后，我们在1970年代中期才以投资者的身份重新归来。这张表充分量化了这份\"姗姗来迟的忠诚\"所带来的回报。",[14,786,787],{},"由于我们控股和非控股的业务覆盖面极广，若在此逐一详述未免太过冗长。控股企业的大量财务和运营信息已包含在第34-39页的管理层讨论以及第45-61页的叙述性报告中。然而，我们最大的业务领域过去是、将来几乎肯定也会继续是财产意外险。因此，有必要对这个行业的发展状况加以说明。",[10,789,790],{"id":790},"保险行业状况",[14,792,793],{},"下表更新了去年年报中使用过的行业统计数据。它传达的信息一目了然：胆子小的人，最好别去看1983年的承保业绩。",[108,795,796,812],{},[111,797,798],{},[114,799,800,803,806,809],{},[117,801,802],{},"年份",[117,804,805],{},"保费收入年增长率 (%)",[117,807,808],{},"已赚保费年增长率 (%)",[117,810,811],{},"保户红利后综合比率",[134,813,814,828,842,856,870,884,898,912,926,940,954],{},[114,815,816,819,822,825],{},[139,817,818],{},"1972",[139,820,821],{},"10.2",[139,823,824],{},"10.9",[139,826,827],{},"96.2",[114,829,830,833,836,839],{},[139,831,832],{},"1973",[139,834,835],{},"8.0",[139,837,838],{},"8.8",[139,840,841],{},"99.2",[114,843,844,847,850,853],{},[139,845,846],{},"1974",[139,848,849],{},"6.2",[139,851,852],{},"6.9",[139,854,855],{},"105.4",[114,857,858,861,864,867],{},[139,859,860],{},"1975",[139,862,863],{},"11.0",[139,865,866],{},"9.6",[139,868,869],{},"107.9",[114,871,872,875,878,881],{},[139,873,874],{},"1976",[139,876,877],{},"21.9",[139,879,880],{},"19.4",[139,882,883],{},"102.4",[114,885,886,889,892,895],{},[139,887,888],{},"1977",[139,890,891],{},"19.8",[139,893,894],{},"20.5",[139,896,897],{},"97.2",[114,899,900,903,906,909],{},[139,901,902],{},"1978",[139,904,905],{},"12.8",[139,907,908],{},"14.3",[139,910,911],{},"97.5",[114,913,914,917,920,923],{},[139,915,916],{},"1979",[139,918,919],{},"10.3",[139,921,922],{},"10.4",[139,924,925],{},"100.6",[114,927,928,931,934,937],{},[139,929,930],{},"1980",[139,932,933],{},"6.0",[139,935,936],{},"7.8",[139,938,939],{},"103.1",[114,941,942,945,948,951],{},[139,943,944],{},"1981（修订）",[139,946,947],{},"3.9",[139,949,950],{},"4.1",[139,952,953],{},"106.0",[114,955,956,959,962,965],{},[139,957,958],{},"1982（估计）",[139,960,961],{},"5.1",[139,963,964],{},"4.6",[139,966,967],{},"109.5",[14,969,970],{},[971,972,973],"em",{},"来源：Best's Aggregates and Averages",[14,975,976],{},"Best的数据反映了几乎整个行业的经验，包括股份制、互助制和互惠制保险公司。综合比率代表总运营成本和赔付损失与保费收入之比；低于100表示承保盈利，高于100表示亏损。",[14,978,979],{},"出于去年报告中阐述的原因，只要行业年保费收入增长率远低于10%，你就可以预期来年的承保业绩将会恶化。即便在如今较低的总体通胀率下也是如此。随着保单数量逐年增加、医疗费用上涨远快于总体通胀、以及保险责任概念的不断扩展，承保损失每年的增长率很难降到10%以下。",[14,981,982],{},"你还应该知道，1982年109.5的综合比率已是\"最乐观\"的估计。在任何一个年度中，保险公司几乎想报出什么利润数字都行，尤其是如果它：(1) 承保\"长尾\"业务（赔付周期漫长，当期成本只能估算）；(2) 过去提取了充足的准备金；或者 (3) 正在快速扩张。有迹象表明，1982年有好几家大型保险公司选择了隐晦的会计处理和准备金手法，以掩盖其基础业务的严重恶化。在保险业，一如其他行业，差劲的管理面对差劲的经营，本能的反应往往是差劲的会计。（\"空麻袋立不直。\"）",[14,984,985],{},"当然，绝大多数管理层都努力做到诚实。但即便是正直的管理者，在利润不佳的年份也会不自觉地不太愿意充分认识不利的赔付趋势。行业统计数据显示，1982年损失准备金的提取有所恶化，真实的综合比率很可能比我们表中的数字还要差一些。",[14,987,988],{},"行业的普遍看法是1983年或1984年将迎来承保业绩的最低谷，然后像过去一样，\"周期\"将显著而稳步地向好的方向运转。我们不同意这个看法，因为竞争环境已经发生了深刻的变化——这种变化多年来难以察觉，但现在已十分明显。",[14,990,991],{},"要理解这一变化，我们需要看看那些影响企业整体盈利水平的主要因素。如果一个行业同时存在严重的产能过剩和\"同质化\"的产品（在客户关心的性能、外观、服务支持等方面毫无差异化），那这个行业就是盈利困难的头号候选人。当然，如果价格或成本以某种方式受到管控，从而至少部分地隔绝于正常的市场竞争，那么这些困境是可以避免的。这种管控可以通过以下方式实现：(a) 政府干预合法进行（直到最近，卡车运输定价和金融机构存款成本都属此类）；(b) 非法串谋；或者 (c) 像OPEC那样\"法外\"的国际卡特尔联盟（国内非联盟经营者也跟着沾光）。",[14,993,994],{},"但是，如果成本和价格由完全竞争来决定，产能又绰绰有余，而买家根本不在乎用的是谁家的产品或服务，那么整个行业的经济效益几乎注定令人沮丧。甚至可能是灾难性的。",[14,996,997],{},"因此，每家企业都在不遗余力地建立和强调自家产品或服务的独特之处。这招对糖果棒管用——客户按品牌购买，而不是说\"给我来根两盎司的糖果棒\"；但对食糖就不灵了——你多久听人说过一次\"请给我来杯加奶油和C&H牌糖的咖啡\"？",[14,999,1000],{},"在许多行业中，有意义的差异化根本无从谈起。这些行业中的少数生产商如果拥有既宽且深的可持续成本优势，或许能够持续表现优异。但按定义，这样的例外凤毛麟角，在许多行业中甚至根本不存在。对绝大多数销售\"同质化\"产品的公司来说，一个令人沮丧的商业等式始终成立：持续的产能过剩加上不可控的价格（或成本），等于微薄的利润。",[14,1002,1003],{},"当然，产能过剩最终可能会自我修正——要么产能收缩，要么需求扩张。不幸的是，对行业参与者来说，这种修正往往要等很久。当修正终于到来时，利润反弹所带来的普遍乐观情绪又会引发一轮全面的扩产热潮，几年之内又会再次造成产能过剩和无利可图的新局面。换句话说，没有什么比成功更容易导致失败的了。",[14,1005,1006],{},"在这类行业中，最终决定长期盈利水平的，是供不应求的年份与供过于求的年份之间的比例。这个比例通常惨不忍睹。（我们纺织业务最近一次供不应求的时期——那已经是好多年前的事了——大概持续了一个上午的大部分时间。）",[14,1008,1009],{},"不过在某些行业中，产能紧张的局面可以持续很久。有时候，实际需求的增长会在很长一段时间内超过预期增长。在另一些情况下，新增产能需要很长的筹备周期，因为必须规划和建造复杂的生产设施。",[14,1011,1012],{},"但回到保险业这个话题上来——只要有资本加上承保人愿意签上自己的名字，保险业的产能可以瞬间创造出来。（在国家资助的担保基金保护许多保户免受保险公司破产之害的世界里，资本甚至都没那么重要了。）除了因股市崩盘或真正重大的自然灾害而引发的生存恐惧之外，在几乎所有条件下，保险业都在严重产能过剩的竞争利剑下运营。通常情况下，尽管做出了种种勇敢的尝试，保险业销售的基本上还是无差异的同质化产品。（许多被保险人，包括大型企业的管理者，连自己投保的保险公司叫什么名字都不知道。）因此，保险似乎是那种通常面临产能过剩与同质化产品这一致命组合的行业的教科书式案例。",[14,1014,1015],{},"那么，尽管存在周期起伏，为什么过去几十年承保总体上还是盈利的呢？（1950年至1970年，行业平均综合比率为99.0，这意味着除了全部投资收益外，还能有1%的保费转化为利润。）答案主要在于历史上的监管方式和营销模式。在本世纪的大部分时间里，行业中相当大一部分实际上是在保险监管机构推动的准管制定价体系内运作的。虽然价格竞争存在，但在大公司之间并不普遍。主要的竞争是争夺保险代理人，通过各种与价格无关的策略来讨好他们。",[14,1017,1018],{},"对行业巨头而言，大多数费率是通过行业\"协会\"（或按照协会建议行事的公司）与各州监管机构之间的谈判确定的。讨价还价当然在所难免，但那是公司与监管机构之间的事，而不是公司与客户之间的事。尘埃落定后，巨头甲的价格与巨头乙一模一样——而且法律禁止公司和代理人在已备案的费率基础上打折。",[14,1020,1021],{},"公司与政府协商确定的价格中包含了特定的利润空间，当损失数据显示当前定价无法盈利时，公司管理层和州监管机构都预期会携手合作来纠正这种局面。因此，行业巨头的大多数定价行为都是\"绅士风度\"的、可预测的，而且能产生利润。最重要的是——与大多数商业世界的运作方式形成鲜明对比——保险公司即使在严重产能过剩的情况下，也能合法地通过调价来确保盈利。",[14,1023,1024],{},"但好景不再。虽然旧有体制的部分结构仍然存在，但体制外已经涌入了远超所需的新增产能，迫使所有参与者——不管新老——都必须作出回应。新增产能采用各种不同的营销方式，并且毫不犹豫地将价格作为主要的竞争武器。事实上，它们乐在其中。在这个过程中，消费者已经认识到保险不再是\"统一价\"的行业了。他们不会忘记这一点。",[14,1026,1027],{},"保险业未来的盈利能力取决于当前的竞争特征，而非过去的。许多管理者对此认识迟缓。不只是将军们才喜欢打上一场仗，大多数商业和投资分析同样是从后视镜里看问题。但在我们看来，只有一个条件能让保险业的承保业绩显著改善——这也是铝、铜或玉米生产商改善业绩所需的同一个条件：大幅缩小供需之间的差距。",[14,1029,1030],{},"不幸的是，保单需求不可能出现类似铜或铝市场供应紧缺时那样的激增。相反，必须削减保险产能的供给。这里所说的\"供给\"是心理层面而非物质层面的：不需要关闭工厂或公司，只需要承保人克制住签下保单的冲动。",[14,1032,1033],{},"这种收缩不会仅仅因为利润水平普遍不佳而发生。糟糕的利润会引来一大堆抱怨和互相推诿，但不会导致主要的保险供应商背弃大量业务，从而牺牲市场份额和行业地位。",[14,1035,1036],{},"相反，重大的产能退出需要一个冲击性事件——比如一场自然灾害或金融\"超级灾难\"。这种事可能明天就发生，也可能要等上很多年。在此期间，保险业——即便把投资收益算在内——也不会特别赚钱。",[14,1038,1039],{},"当供应最终收缩时，那些拥有雄厚资本实力、愿意投入资本、并且已经建立起完善分销体系的少数公司，将迎来大量的业务机会。届时，我们预期我们的保险子公司将获得巨大的机遇。",[14,1041,1042],{},"1982年，我们的保险承保业绩恶化程度远超行业平均水平。从远高于行业平均的盈利水平，我们滑落到了略低于行业平均的位置。最大的波动出现在国民保险公司 (National Indemnity) 的传统险种上。过去为我们贡献丰厚利润的业务线，如今的定价水平已经注定了承保亏损。展望1983年，我们预计保险集团的业绩将与行业水平大致持平——而在这个行业里，\"平均\"意味着非常糟糕。",[14,1044,1045],{},"我们的两位明星——赛普拉斯保险 (Cypress) 的米尔特·桑顿 (Milt Thornton) 和堪萨斯火灾意外险 (Kansas Fire and Casualty) 的弗洛伊德·泰勒 (Floyd Taylor) ——延续了他们自加入我们以来每年都实现承保盈利的卓越记录。米尔特和弗洛伊德根本就做不到\"平庸\"这两个字。他们对各自的业务保持着近乎偏执的主人翁态度，并打造了一种以极致成本意识和客户服务为核心的企业文化。他们的成绩单就是最好的证明。",[14,1047,1048],{},"1982年，母公司对大部分保险业务的管理责任交给了迈克·戈德伯格 (Mike Goldberg)。自从迈克接替我担任这一角色以来，在规划、招聘和监督方面都出现了显著改善。",[14,1050,1051],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO) 持续以追求效率和客户价值的热忱来管理运营，这几乎保证了非凡的成功。杰克·伯恩 (Jack Byrne) 和比尔·斯奈德 (Bill Snyder) 正在实现人类最难以捉摸的目标——让事情保持简单，并牢记你最初的使命。此外，路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson) 是财产意外险行业中最优秀的投资经理。我们对GEICO运营的方方面面都感到满意。GEICO正是我们前文讨论同质化产品产能过剩行业时所提到的那种高利润例外的最佳范例——一家拥有既宽且深的可持续成本优势的公司。我们持有GEICO 35%的权益意味着约2.5亿美元的保费量，远超我们自己保险公司直接承保的全部保费。",[10,1053,1054],{"id":1054},"发行股份",[14,1056,1057],{},"伯克希尔和蓝筹印花正在考虑于1983年进行合并。如果合并实现，将采用对两家公司适用同一估值方法的股票交换方式。在现任管理层任期内，伯克希尔或其关联公司唯一另一次重大发行新股，是1978年伯克希尔与多元零售公司 (Diversified Retailing Company) 的合并。",[14,1059,1060],{},"我们发行新股遵循一条简单的基本原则：除非获得的内在商业价值与付出的一样多，否则不发行。这条原则看似不言自明。你可能会问，谁会傻到拿一块钱去换五毛钱？不幸的是，许多公司的管理者恰恰愿意这么做。",[14,1062,1063],{},"这些管理者在进行收购时，首选通常是动用现金或举债。但CEO的收购欲望往往远超现金和信贷资源所能支撑的程度（我自己的欲望向来如此）。而且，这种渴望经常发生在自家股票价格远低于内在商业价值的时候。这时候就来到了一个真相时刻。在这个节点上，正如尤吉·贝拉 (Yogi Berra)（美国职棒大联盟传奇球星）所说的：\"光用看的就能观察到很多东西。\"因为此时股东们将发现管理层真正在意的是什么——是扩张帝国版图，还是维护股东的财富。",[14,1065,1066],{},"之所以必须在这两个目标之间做出选择，原因很简单。公司股票在市场上的售价通常低于其内在商业价值。但当一家公司想要整体出售时，在协议交易中，它必然想要——而且通常也能——获得全额的商业价值，不管以哪种货币支付。如果用现金支付，卖方计算获得的价值再容易不过了。如果用买方的股票作为交换货币，卖方的计算也相对简单：只需算出即将收到的股票的现金市场价值即可。",[14,1068,1069],{},"与此同时，如果买方的股票在市场上按照完全内在价值出售，那么用自己的股票作为收购货币就不会有什么问题。",[14,1071,1072],{},"但假设股价只有内在价值的一半呢？在这种情况下，买方将面临用一种被严重低估的货币去完成收购的尴尬局面。",[14,1074,1075,1076,1079],{},"讽刺的是，如果买方反过来要出售自己的整个企业，它同样可以通过谈判获得全额的内在商业价值。但当买方通过发行股份来进行收购——",[971,1077,1078],{},"这实质上就是出售公司的一部分","——它通常只能按照市场愿意给予的价格来定价自己的股票。",[14,1081,1082],{},"不顾一切强行推进收购的人，最终会用一种被低估的货币（市场价值）去支付一项被充分估值的资产（谈判价值）。实际上，收购方每付出2美元的价值，只换回1美元的价值。在这种情况下，一家以公平价格出售的出色企业，就变成了一笔糟糕透顶的买卖。因为被当作黄金的黄金，是不可能通过被当作铅来估值的黄金——甚至白银——来聪明地购买的。",[14,1084,1085],{},"然而，如果对规模和行动的渴望足够强烈，收购方的管理者总能找到充足的理由来为这种毁灭价值的股票发行辩护。友善的投资银行家会对他的行动的合理性再三保证。（别问理发师你需不需要理发。）",[14,1087,1088],{},"以下是发行股票的管理层最爱用的几条理由：",[14,1090,1091],{},"(a) \"我们要收购的公司将来会值更多钱。\"（大概被出让的原有业务的权益也一样吧；未来前景已经隐含在企业估值过程中了。如果你用价值2X的东西去换价值X的东西，即使两边的业务价值都翻倍，这种失衡依然存在。）",[14,1093,1094,1095,1098],{},"(b) \"我们必须成长。\"（或许有人该问一句，这个\"我们\"指的是谁？对现有股东而言，现实是每当公司发行新股，所有现有业务的权益都会被稀释。假如伯克希尔明天发行新股进行收购，伯克希尔将拥有它现在拥有的一切加上新业务，但",[971,1096,1097],{},"你们","在那些难以复制的企业——比如喜诗糖果 (See's Candy Shops)、国民保险 (National Indemnity) 等等——中的权益将自动缩水。打个比方，(1) 你家有一座120亩的农场，(2) 你邀请一位拥有60亩同等土地的邻居以合伙方式将他的农场并入——你担任管理合伙人，那么 (3) 你管理的地盘是扩大到了180亩，但你家在土地和收成中的所有权永久缩水了25%。那些想牺牲股东权益来扩张自己版图的管理者，或许更适合去政府部门谋个差事。）",[14,1100,1101],{},"(c) \"我们的股票被低估了，在这笔交易中我们已尽量少发行——但我们必须给卖方51%的股票和49%的现金，好让部分卖方股东享受免税换股。\"（这番话等于承认减少发行股份对买方有利，这一点我们赞同。但如果100%用股票会损害老股东的权益，51%同样会。毕竟，一个人不会因为弄脏他草坪的是一只史宾格猎犬而不是一只圣伯纳犬，就觉得可以接受。卖方的意愿不应该成为决定买方最佳利益的因素——要是卖方坚持以更换收购方CEO作为合并条件，那又该怎么办？）",[14,1103,1104,1105,1108],{},"在发行股票进行收购时，有三种方法可以避免对老股东价值的损害。第一种是真正的以价值换价值的合并，就像伯克希尔和蓝筹印花拟议中的合并那样。这种合并力求对",[971,1106,1107],{},"双方","股东都公平，各方在内在商业价值上获得的与付出的一样多。达特工业 (Dart Industries) 与卡夫 (Kraft) 的合并，以及纳贝斯克 (Nabisco) 与标准品牌 (Standard Brands) 的合并，看起来属于此类，但它们是少数例外。不是收购方不想这样做，而是这实在太难做到了。",[14,1110,1111,1112,1115],{},"第二种方法适用于收购方的股票以等于或高于其内在商业价值的价格出售时。在这种情况下，用股票作为收购货币实际上可以增加收购方股东的财富。1965年至1969年间有许多合并是在这个基础上完成的。其结果与1970年以来的大多数交易恰好相反：",[971,1113,1114],{},"被收购公司","的股东收到了严重高估的货币（通常被可疑的会计和推销手法吹大），他们才是交易中的输家。",[14,1117,1118],{},"近年来，能采用第二种方案的大公司寥寥无几。少数例外主要是那些处于热门或包装精美行业的公司，市场暂时给予它们等于或高于内在商业价值的估值。",[14,1120,1121],{},"第三种方法是收购方先完成收购，然后从市场上回购与合并中发行数量相等的股票。通过这种方式，原本以股换股的合并实际上被转化为现金换股的收购。这类回购属于\"损害修复\"行动。老读者一定能猜到，我们更偏好那种直接增加股东财富的回购，而不仅仅是修补以前犯下的错误。触地得分可比扑回自己掉的球要过瘾多了。但如果已经失误了，补救也很重要，我们衷心推荐这种将一笔糟糕的换股交易转化为公平的现金交易的损害修复式回购。",[14,1123,1124],{},"合并中使用的术语往往容易混淆问题，并鼓励管理者做出非理性的行为。比如，\"稀释\"通常会按照模拟基础仔细计算对每股账面价值和每股当期收益的影响，后者尤其受到重视。当从收购方的角度看这一计算结果为负面（即产生稀释效应）时，就会（至少在内部）炮制一番合理化解释，说这些曲线将在未来某个时点产生有利的交叉。（虽然交易在实践中经常失败，但在预测报告里从来都不会失败。如果CEO对一项拟议中的收购明显兴奋不已，下属和顾问们一定会提供必要的预测来证明任何价格都是合理的。）如果计算结果对收购方立即产生正面效应——即反稀释——那就被认为不需要任何解释了。",[14,1126,1127],{},"人们对这种形式的稀释的关注有些过头了：当期每股收益（甚至未来几年的每股收益）确实是大多数企业估值中的重要变量，但远非万能。",[14,1129,1130],{},"有大量的合并案，从这个有限的意义上看并未产生稀释，却立即摧毁了收购方的价值。也有一些合并案虽然稀释了当期和近期的每股收益，实际上却增加了企业价值。真正重要的是从内在商业价值的角度来衡量，合并究竟是稀释性的还是增值性的（这需要综合考虑许多变量）。我们认为从这个角度进行稀释分析是至关重要的（可惜这么做的人太少了）。",[14,1132,1133],{},"第二个术语问题涉及交换比例。如果甲公司宣布将发行股票与乙公司合并，这个过程通常被描述为\"甲公司收购乙公司\"或\"乙公司出售给甲公司\"。如果采用一个虽然拗口但更准确的描述，思路会清晰得多：\"甲公司出售自身的一部分以收购乙公司\"，或者\"乙公司股东获得甲公司的一部分权益以交换其资产\"。在交易中，你付出的与你得到的同等重要。即使最终清算你付出了什么还需要一段时间，这一点依然成立。为完成交易融资或恢复资产负债表实力而进行的后续普通股或可转换证券发行，都必须被充分纳入对原始收购的基本数学运算中。（如果企业怀孕是企业结合的必然结果，那么在享乐之前就必须面对这个事实。）",[14,1135,1136],{},"管理者和董事们不妨这样来检验自己的思路：他们会不会在被要求出售公司一部分的同一条件下，出售公司100%的股权？如果在这个条件下出售全部股权是不明智的，那他们就该扪心自问，为什么出售一部分就变得明智了？管理层的小愚蠢累积起来会变成大愚蠢——而不是大胜利。（拉斯维加斯就是建立在人们进行一系列看似微不足道的不利资本交易所造成的财富转移之上的。）",[14,1138,1139],{},"\"付出与获得\"这个因素在注册投资公司之间最容易计算。假设投资公司X的市价只有资产价值的50%，它想与投资公司Y合并。再假设X公司因此决定发行市值相当于Y公司100%资产价值的股票。",[14,1141,1142],{},"这样的股票交换等于X公司用2美元的内在价值去换取Y公司1美元的内在价值。X公司的股东和负责裁定注册投资公司合并公平性的美国证监会 (SEC) 会立即提出抗议。这种交易根本不会被允许。",[14,1144,1145],{},"对于制造业、服务业、金融业等公司来说，价值通常不像投资公司那样可以精确计算。但我们在这些行业中也见过一些合并案，对收购方股东价值的摧毁程度，与上面假设的例子一样触目惊心。如果管理层和董事会能够注重公平性，用同一把标尺来衡量双方的企业，这种价值毁灭就不会发生。",[14,1147,1148],{},"最后，还应该说说价值稀释性的股票发行对收购方股东造成的\"双重打击\"效应。在这种情况下，第一重打击是合并本身造成的内在商业价值的损失。第二重打击是市场对这一已被稀释的商业价值进行——完全合理的——估值下调。现有和潜在的股东理所当然地会这样想：把资产交给一个有过不明智发行新股、毁灭股东财富记录的管理层手中，我不可能付与交给另一个经营能力完全相同、但众所周知厌恶损害股东利益行为的管理层同样多的钱。一旦管理层表现出对股东利益的漠视，无论管理层如何保证那次价值稀释的行为只是偶发事件，股东们都将长期承受其股票相对于其他股票偏低的价格\u002F价值比率。",[14,1150,1151],{},"市场对待这些保证的态度，就像餐厅顾客对待\"沙拉里只有一只虫子\"这种解释的态度一样。这样的解释，即使换了一个新服务员来陪侍，也无法消除沙拉需求（进而市场价值）的下降——不管是受到冒犯的顾客本人，还是正在考虑点什么菜的邻桌。在其他条件相同的情况下，相对于内在商业价值，市场给予最高估值的，总是那些管理层已经证明自己在任何时候都不愿意以不利于股东的条件发行新股的公司。",[14,1153,1154],{},"在伯克希尔，或者任何由我们决定政策的公司（包括蓝筹印花和韦斯科），我们只有在股东获得的商业价值与我们付出的一样多时，才会发行新股。我们绝不会将活动等同于进步，或将公司规模等同于股东财富。",[10,1156,1157],{"id":1157},"其他杂项",[14,1159,1160],{},"这份年报会被各种不同的读者看到，其中一些读者或许能在我们的收购计划上帮到我们。",[14,1162,1163],{},"我们偏好以下特征的企业：",[14,1165,1166],{},"(1) 有一定的规模（税后净利润至少达到500万美元）；",[14,1168,1169],{},"(2) 拥有持续稳定的盈利能力（我们对未来预测和\"困境反转\"类项目不感兴趣）；",[14,1171,1172],{},"(3) 在很少使用或不使用负债的情况下，取得良好的股本回报率；",[14,1174,1175],{},"(4) 具备优秀的管理团队（我们无法提供管理层）；",[14,1177,1178],{},"(5) 业务简单（如果涉及太多技术，我们搞不懂）；",[14,1180,1181],{},"(6) 有明确的报价（在价格不确定的情况下，我们不想浪费双方的时间，哪怕是初步讨论也不行）。",[14,1183,1184],{},"我们不会参与恶意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并会极快地答复是否感兴趣——通常不超过五分钟。我们倾向现金交易，但如果能按上一节所描述的原则进行，我们也会考虑使用股票。",[14,1186,1187],{},"以我们一贯的鲁莽作风，总部办公面积扩大了252平方英尺（17%），这恰好赶上我们在基威特广场 (Kiewit Plaza) 1440号签订了一份新的五年租约。和我一起在这里工作的五个人——琼·阿瑟顿 (Joan Atherton)、迈克·戈德伯格 (Mike Goldberg)、格拉迪斯·凯泽 (Gladys Kaiser)、弗恩·麦肯齐 (Verne McKenzie) 和比尔·斯科特 (Bill Scott) ——产出效率远超许多几倍于我们人数的企业集团团队。精简的组织让我们所有人都把时间花在管理业务上，而不是互相管理上。",[14,1189,1190],{},"不管与蓝筹印花的合并是否成行，我的管理合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 将继续在洛杉矶工作。查理跟我在商业决策上完全可以互相替代。距离对我们毫无妨碍：我们一直觉得一通电话比半天的委员会会议更有成效。",{"title":1192,"searchDepth":1193,"depth":1193,"links":1194},"",2,[],"致股东信",null,"1982年巴菲特致股东信，分析经营收益大幅下降、股权回报率偏低原因及保险业困境","md",{},true,53,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1197},"1982 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","YvI4edmHkVnwkrNmoLg_pRFzWqIkSGHILLevVOzLHlw","buffett",[1210,1214,1218,1222,1225,1228,1231,1235,1238,1241,1245,1248,1251,1255,1258,1261,1265,1268,1271,1275,1278,1281,1285,1288,1291,1295,1298,1301,1305,1308,1311,1315,1318,1321,1325,1328,1331,1335,1338,1341,1345,1348,1351,1355,1358,1361,1365,1368,1371,1375,1378,1381,1385,1388,1391,1395,1398,1401,1405,1408,1411,1415,1418,1421,1425,1428,1431,1435,1438,1441,1445,1448,1451,1455,1458,1461,1465,1468,1471,1475,1478,1481,1485,1488,1491,1495,1498,1501,1505,1508,1511,1515,1518,1521,1525,1528,1531,1535,1538,1541,1545,1548,1552,1555,1559,1562,1566,1569,1573,1576,1580,1583,1587,1590,1594,1597,1601,1604,1608,1611,1615,1618,1622,1625,1629,1632,1636,1639,1643,1646,1650,1653,1657,1660,1664,1667,1671,1674,1675,1678,1682,1685,1689,1692,1696,1699,1703,1706,1710,1713,1717,1720,1724,1727,1731,1734,1738,1741,1745,1748,1752,1755,1759,1762,1766,1769,1773,1776,1780,1783,1787,1790,1794,1797,1801,1804,1808,1811,1815,1818,1822,1825,1829,1832,1836,1839,1843,1846,1850,1853,1857,1860,1864,1867,1871,1874,1878,1881,1885,1888,1892,1895,1899,1902,1906,1909,1913,1916,1920,1923,1927,1930,1934,1937,1941,1944,1948,1951,1955,1958,1962,1965,1969,1972,1976,1979,1983,1986,1990,1993,1997,2000,2004,2007,2011,2015,2019,2023,2027,2031,2035,2039,2043,2047,2051,2055,2059,2063,2067,2071,2075,2079,2083,2087,2091,2095,2099,2103,2107,2111,2115,2119,2123,2127,2131,2135,2139,2143,2147,2151,2155,2159,2163,2167,2171,2175,2179,2183,2187,2191,2195,2199,2203,2207],{"title":1211,"slug":1212,"category":1195,"order":1213},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1215,"slug":1216,"category":1217,"order":1213},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1219,"slug":1220,"category":1221,"order":1213},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1223,"slug":1224,"category":1195,"order":1193},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1226,"slug":1227,"category":1217,"order":1193},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1229,"slug":1230,"category":1221,"order":1193},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1232,"slug":1233,"category":1195,"order":1234},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1236,"slug":1237,"category":1217,"order":1234},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1239,"slug":1240,"category":1221,"order":1234},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1242,"slug":1243,"category":1195,"order":1244},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1246,"slug":1247,"category":1217,"order":1244},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1249,"slug":1250,"category":1221,"order":1244},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1252,"slug":1253,"category":1195,"order":1254},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1256,"slug":1257,"category":1217,"order":1254},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1259,"slug":1260,"category":1221,"order":1254},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1262,"slug":1263,"category":1195,"order":1264},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1266,"slug":1267,"category":1217,"order":1264},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1269,"slug":1270,"category":1221,"order":1264},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1272,"slug":1273,"category":1195,"order":1274},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1276,"slug":1277,"category":1217,"order":1274},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1279,"slug":1280,"category":1221,"order":1274},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1282,"slug":1283,"category":1195,"order":1284},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1286,"slug":1287,"category":1217,"order":1284},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1289,"slug":1290,"category":1221,"order":1284},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1292,"slug":1293,"category":1195,"order":1294},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1296,"slug":1297,"category":1217,"order":1294},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1299,"slug":1300,"category":1221,"order":1294},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1302,"slug":1303,"category":1195,"order":1304},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1306,"slug":1307,"category":1217,"order":1304},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1309,"slug":1310,"category":1221,"order":1304},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1312,"slug":1313,"category":1195,"order":1314},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1316,"slug":1317,"category":1217,"order":1314},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1319,"slug":1320,"category":1221,"order":1314},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1322,"slug":1323,"category":1195,"order":1324},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1326,"slug":1327,"category":1217,"order":1324},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1329,"slug":1330,"category":1221,"order":1324},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1332,"slug":1333,"category":1195,"order":1334},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1336,"slug":1337,"category":1217,"order":1334},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1339,"slug":1340,"category":1221,"order":1334},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1342,"slug":1343,"category":1195,"order":1344},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1346,"slug":1347,"category":1217,"order":1344},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1349,"slug":1350,"category":1221,"order":1344},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1352,"slug":1353,"category":1195,"order":1354},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1356,"slug":1357,"category":1217,"order":1354},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1359,"slug":1360,"category":1221,"order":1354},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1362,"slug":1363,"category":1195,"order":1364},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":1366,"slug":1367,"category":1217,"order":1364},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1369,"slug":1370,"category":1221,"order":1364},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1372,"slug":1373,"category":1195,"order":1374},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1376,"slug":1377,"category":1217,"order":1374},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1379,"slug":1380,"category":1221,"order":1374},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1382,"slug":1383,"category":1195,"order":1384},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1386,"slug":1387,"category":1217,"order":1384},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1389,"slug":1390,"category":1221,"order":1384},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1392,"slug":1393,"category":1195,"order":1394},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":1396,"slug":1397,"category":1217,"order":1394},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1399,"slug":1400,"category":1221,"order":1394},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1402,"slug":1403,"category":1195,"order":1404},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1406,"slug":1407,"category":1217,"order":1404},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1409,"slug":1410,"category":1221,"order":1404},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1412,"slug":1413,"category":1195,"order":1414},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1416,"slug":1417,"category":1217,"order":1414},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1419,"slug":1420,"category":1221,"order":1414},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1422,"slug":1423,"category":1195,"order":1424},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1426,"slug":1427,"category":1217,"order":1424},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1429,"slug":1430,"category":1221,"order":1424},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1432,"slug":1433,"category":1195,"order":1434},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1436,"slug":1437,"category":1217,"order":1434},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1439,"slug":1440,"category":1221,"order":1434},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1442,"slug":1443,"category":1195,"order":1444},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1446,"slug":1447,"category":1217,"order":1444},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1449,"slug":1450,"category":1221,"order":1444},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1452,"slug":1453,"category":1195,"order":1454},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1456,"slug":1457,"category":1217,"order":1454},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1459,"slug":1460,"category":1221,"order":1454},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1462,"slug":1463,"category":1195,"order":1464},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1466,"slug":1467,"category":1217,"order":1464},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1469,"slug":1470,"category":1221,"order":1464},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1472,"slug":1473,"category":1195,"order":1474},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1476,"slug":1477,"category":1217,"order":1474},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1479,"slug":1480,"category":1221,"order":1474},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1482,"slug":1483,"category":1195,"order":1484},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1486,"slug":1487,"category":1217,"order":1484},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1489,"slug":1490,"category":1221,"order":1484},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1492,"slug":1493,"category":1195,"order":1494},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1496,"slug":1497,"category":1217,"order":1494},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1499,"slug":1500,"category":1221,"order":1494},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1502,"slug":1503,"category":1195,"order":1504},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1506,"slug":1507,"category":1217,"order":1504},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1509,"slug":1510,"category":1221,"order":1504},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1512,"slug":1513,"category":1195,"order":1514},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1516,"slug":1517,"category":1217,"order":1514},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1519,"slug":1520,"category":1221,"order":1514},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1522,"slug":1523,"category":1195,"order":1524},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1526,"slug":1527,"category":1217,"order":1524},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1529,"slug":1530,"category":1221,"order":1524},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1532,"slug":1533,"category":1195,"order":1534},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1536,"slug":1537,"category":1217,"order":1534},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1539,"slug":1540,"category":1221,"order":1534},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1542,"slug":1543,"category":1195,"order":1544},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1546,"slug":1547,"category":1217,"order":1544},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1549,"slug":1550,"category":1195,"order":1551},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1553,"slug":1554,"category":1217,"order":1551},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1556,"slug":1557,"category":1195,"order":1558},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1560,"slug":1561,"category":1217,"order":1558},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1563,"slug":1564,"category":1195,"order":1565},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1567,"slug":1568,"category":1217,"order":1565},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1570,"slug":1571,"category":1195,"order":1572},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1574,"slug":1575,"category":1217,"order":1572},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1577,"slug":1578,"category":1195,"order":1579},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1581,"slug":1582,"category":1217,"order":1579},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1584,"slug":1585,"category":1195,"order":1586},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1588,"slug":1589,"category":1217,"order":1586},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1591,"slug":1592,"category":1195,"order":1593},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1595,"slug":1596,"category":1217,"order":1593},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1598,"slug":1599,"category":1195,"order":1600},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1602,"slug":1603,"category":1217,"order":1600},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1605,"slug":1606,"category":1195,"order":1607},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1609,"slug":1610,"category":1217,"order":1607},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1612,"slug":1613,"category":1195,"order":1614},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1616,"slug":1617,"category":1217,"order":1614},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1619,"slug":1620,"category":1195,"order":1621},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1623,"slug":1624,"category":1217,"order":1621},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1626,"slug":1627,"category":1195,"order":1628},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1630,"slug":1631,"category":1217,"order":1628},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1633,"slug":1634,"category":1195,"order":1635},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1637,"slug":1638,"category":1217,"order":1635},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1640,"slug":1641,"category":1195,"order":1642},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1644,"slug":1645,"category":1217,"order":1642},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1647,"slug":1648,"category":1195,"order":1649},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1651,"slug":1652,"category":1217,"order":1649},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1654,"slug":1655,"category":1195,"order":1656},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1658,"slug":1659,"category":1217,"order":1656},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1661,"slug":1662,"category":1195,"order":1663},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1665,"slug":1666,"category":1217,"order":1663},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1668,"slug":1669,"category":1195,"order":1670},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1672,"slug":1673,"category":1217,"order":1670},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":5,"slug":1205,"category":1195,"order":1201},{"title":1676,"slug":1677,"category":1217,"order":1201},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1679,"slug":1680,"category":1195,"order":1681},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1683,"slug":1684,"category":1217,"order":1681},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1686,"slug":1687,"category":1195,"order":1688},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1690,"slug":1691,"category":1217,"order":1688},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1693,"slug":1694,"category":1195,"order":1695},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1697,"slug":1698,"category":1217,"order":1695},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1700,"slug":1701,"category":1195,"order":1702},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1704,"slug":1705,"category":1217,"order":1702},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1707,"slug":1708,"category":1195,"order":1709},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1711,"slug":1712,"category":1217,"order":1709},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1714,"slug":1715,"category":1195,"order":1716},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1718,"slug":1719,"category":1217,"order":1716},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1721,"slug":1722,"category":1195,"order":1723},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1725,"slug":1726,"category":1217,"order":1723},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1728,"slug":1729,"category":1195,"order":1730},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1732,"slug":1733,"category":1217,"order":1730},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1735,"slug":1736,"category":1195,"order":1737},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1739,"slug":1740,"category":1217,"order":1737},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1742,"slug":1743,"category":1195,"order":1744},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1746,"slug":1747,"category":1217,"order":1744},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1749,"slug":1750,"category":1195,"order":1751},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1753,"slug":1754,"category":1217,"order":1751},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1756,"slug":1757,"category":1195,"order":1758},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1760,"slug":1761,"category":1217,"order":1758},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1763,"slug":1764,"category":1195,"order":1765},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1767,"slug":1768,"category":1217,"order":1765},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1770,"slug":1771,"category":1195,"order":1772},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1774,"slug":1775,"category":1217,"order":1772},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1777,"slug":1778,"category":1195,"order":1779},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1781,"slug":1782,"category":1217,"order":1779},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1784,"slug":1785,"category":1195,"order":1786},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1788,"slug":1789,"category":1217,"order":1786},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1791,"slug":1792,"category":1195,"order":1793},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1795,"slug":1796,"category":1217,"order":1793},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1798,"slug":1799,"category":1195,"order":1800},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1802,"slug":1803,"category":1217,"order":1800},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1805,"slug":1806,"category":1195,"order":1807},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1809,"slug":1810,"category":1217,"order":1807},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1812,"slug":1813,"category":1195,"order":1814},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1816,"slug":1817,"category":1217,"order":1814},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1819,"slug":1820,"category":1195,"order":1821},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1823,"slug":1824,"category":1217,"order":1821},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1826,"slug":1827,"category":1195,"order":1828},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1830,"slug":1831,"category":1217,"order":1828},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1833,"slug":1834,"category":1195,"order":1835},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1837,"slug":1838,"category":1217,"order":1835},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1840,"slug":1841,"category":1195,"order":1842},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1844,"slug":1845,"category":1217,"order":1842},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1847,"slug":1848,"category":1195,"order":1849},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1851,"slug":1852,"category":1217,"order":1849},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1854,"slug":1855,"category":1195,"order":1856},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1858,"slug":1859,"category":1217,"order":1856},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1861,"slug":1862,"category":1195,"order":1863},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1865,"slug":1866,"category":1217,"order":1863},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1868,"slug":1869,"category":1195,"order":1870},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1872,"slug":1873,"category":1217,"order":1870},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1875,"slug":1876,"category":1195,"order":1877},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1879,"slug":1880,"category":1217,"order":1877},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1882,"slug":1883,"category":1195,"order":1884},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1886,"slug":1887,"category":1217,"order":1884},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1889,"slug":1890,"category":1195,"order":1891},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1893,"slug":1894,"category":1217,"order":1891},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1896,"slug":1897,"category":1195,"order":1898},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1900,"slug":1901,"category":1217,"order":1898},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1903,"slug":1904,"category":1195,"order":1905},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1907,"slug":1908,"category":1217,"order":1905},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1910,"slug":1911,"category":1195,"order":1912},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1914,"slug":1915,"category":1217,"order":1912},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1917,"slug":1918,"category":1195,"order":1919},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1921,"slug":1922,"category":1217,"order":1919},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1924,"slug":1925,"category":1195,"order":1926},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1928,"slug":1929,"category":1217,"order":1926},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1931,"slug":1932,"category":1195,"order":1933},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1935,"slug":1936,"category":1217,"order":1933},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1938,"slug":1939,"category":1195,"order":1940},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1942,"slug":1943,"category":1217,"order":1940},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1945,"slug":1946,"category":1195,"order":1947},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1949,"slug":1950,"category":1217,"order":1947},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1952,"slug":1953,"category":1195,"order":1954},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1956,"slug":1957,"category":1217,"order":1954},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1959,"slug":1960,"category":1195,"order":1961},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1963,"slug":1964,"category":1217,"order":1961},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1966,"slug":1967,"category":1195,"order":1968},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1970,"slug":1971,"category":1217,"order":1968},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1973,"slug":1974,"category":1195,"order":1975},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1977,"slug":1978,"category":1217,"order":1975},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1980,"slug":1981,"category":1195,"order":1982},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1984,"slug":1985,"category":1217,"order":1982},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1987,"slug":1988,"category":1195,"order":1989},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1991,"slug":1992,"category":1217,"order":1989},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1994,"slug":1995,"category":1195,"order":1996},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":1998,"slug":1999,"category":1217,"order":1996},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2001,"slug":2002,"category":1195,"order":2003},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":2005,"slug":2006,"category":1217,"order":2003},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":2008,"slug":2009,"category":1217,"order":2010},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":2012,"slug":2013,"category":1217,"order":2014},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":2016,"slug":2017,"category":1217,"order":2018},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":2020,"slug":2021,"category":1217,"order":2022},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":2024,"slug":2025,"category":1217,"order":2026},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":2028,"slug":2029,"category":1217,"order":2030},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":2032,"slug":2033,"category":1217,"order":2034},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":2036,"slug":2037,"category":1217,"order":2038},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":2040,"slug":2041,"category":1217,"order":2042},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":2044,"slug":2045,"category":1217,"order":2046},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":2048,"slug":2049,"category":1217,"order":2050},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":2052,"slug":2053,"category":1217,"order":2054},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":2056,"slug":2057,"category":1217,"order":2058},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":2060,"slug":2061,"category":1217,"order":2062},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":2064,"slug":2065,"category":1217,"order":2066},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":2068,"slug":2069,"category":1217,"order":2070},"亚利桑那州立大学雷鸟全球领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安采访沃伦·巴菲特（2015年）","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":2072,"slug":2073,"category":1217,"order":2074},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":2076,"slug":2077,"category":1217,"order":2078},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":2080,"slug":2081,"category":1217,"order":2082},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":2084,"slug":2085,"category":1217,"order":2086},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 年哥伦比亚大学高校面谈——人生最美好的事是什么？》","ba-fei-te-2017-nian-ge-lun-bi-ya-da-xue-gao-xiao-mian-tan-ren-sheng-zui-mei-hao-de-shi-shi-shi-me",120,{"title":2088,"slug":2089,"category":1217,"order":2090},"巴菲特：2017年对话北京大学学生：最好的投资是投资自己","ba-fei-te-2017nian-dui-hua-bei-jing-da-xue-xue-sheng-zui-hao-de-tou-zi-shi-tou-zi-zi-ji",121,{"title":2092,"slug":2093,"category":1217,"order":2094},"巴菲特：2017年接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",122,{"title":2096,"slug":2097,"category":1217,"order":2098},"巴菲特：2017年接受PBS NEWS专访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-pbs-newszhuan-fang",123,{"title":2100,"slug":2101,"category":1217,"order":2102},"巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te",124,{"title":2104,"slug":2105,"category":1217,"order":2106},"巴菲特：2017年美国的未来","ba-fei-te-2017nian-mei-guo-de-wei-lai",125,{"title":2108,"slug":2109,"category":1217,"order":2110},"巴菲特：2018年再度邀请北大光华学子共进午餐问答全记录","ba-fei-te-2018nian-zai-du-yao-qing-bei-da-guang-hua-xue-zi-gong-jin-wu-can-wen-da-quan-ji-lu",126,{"title":2112,"slug":2113,"category":1217,"order":2114},"巴菲特：2018年时代周刊-分享美国财富的秘密","ba-fei-te-2018nian-shi-dai-zhou-kan-fen-xiang-mei-guo-cai-fu-de-mi-mi",127,{"title":2116,"slug":2117,"category":1217,"order":2118},"巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang",128,{"title":2120,"slug":2121,"category":1217,"order":2122},"巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",129,{"title":2124,"slug":2125,"category":1217,"order":2126},"巴菲特：2020年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2020nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",130,{"title":2128,"slug":2129,"category":1217,"order":2130},"巴菲特：2020年给内布拉斯加大学林肯分校2020届毕业生的建议","ba-fei-te-2020nian-gei-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-2020jie-bi-ye-sheng-de-jian-yi",131,{"title":2132,"slug":2133,"category":1217,"order":2134},"巴菲特：2021年专访《成为巴菲特》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-zhuan-fang-cheng-wei-ba-fei-te",132,{"title":2136,"slug":2137,"category":1217,"order":2138},"巴菲特：2021年巴菲特芒格接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2021nian-ba-fei-te-mang-ge-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",133,{"title":2140,"slug":2141,"category":1217,"order":2142},"巴菲特：2021年让观众无言以对 !有史以来最鼓舞人心的演讲之一","ba-fei-te-2021nian-rang-guan-zhong-wu-yan-yi-dui-you-shi-yi-lai-zui-gu-wu-ren-xin-de-yan-jiang-zhi-yi",134,{"title":2144,"slug":2145,"category":1217,"order":2146},"巴菲特：2021年采访《沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略：如何像传奇一样生活和投资（完整访谈）》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-cai-fang-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-tou-zi-ce-lue-ru-he-xiang-chuan-qi-yi-yang-sheng-huo-he-tou-zi-wan-zheng-fang-tan",135,{"title":2148,"slug":2149,"category":1217,"order":2150},"巴菲特：2022年32 届年度格雷厄姆和多德早餐会","ba-fei-te-2022nian-32-jie-nian-du-ge-lei-e-mu-he-duo-de-zao-can-hui",136,{"title":2152,"slug":2153,"category":1217,"order":2154},"巴菲特：2022年和查理罗斯对谈","ba-fei-te-2022nian-he-cha-li-luo-si-dui-tan",137,{"title":2156,"slug":2157,"category":1217,"order":2158},"巴菲特：2023年 查理芒格：伯克希尔的总设计师","ba-fei-te-2023nian-cha-li-mang-ge-bo-ke-xi-er-de-zong-she-ji-shi",138,{"title":2160,"slug":2161,"category":1217,"order":2162},"巴菲特：初学者如何投资--3 条简单的规则","ba-fei-te-2023nian-chu-xue-zhe-ru-he-tou-zi-3-tiao-jian-dan-de-gui-ze",139,{"title":2164,"slug":2165,"category":1217,"order":2166},"巴菲特：2023年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2023nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",140,{"title":2168,"slug":2169,"category":1217,"order":2170},"巴菲特：每个投资者都会犯的 10 个错误","ba-fei-te-2023nian-mei-ge-tou-zi-zhe-du-hui-fan-de-10-ge-cuo-wu",141,{"title":2172,"slug":2173,"category":1217,"order":2174},"巴菲特：2025年接受cbs采访","ba-fei-te-2025nian-jie-shou-cbscai-fang",142,{"title":2176,"slug":2177,"category":1217,"order":2178},"2026伯克希尔股东大会 CNBC专访巴菲特（完整纯中文）","2026bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui-cnbczhuan-fang-ba-fei-te",143,{"title":2180,"slug":2181,"category":1217,"order":2182},"巴菲特：2026年最新采访 CNBC《财经论谈》","ba-fei-te-2026nian-zui-xin-cai-fang-cnbc-cai-jing-lun-tan",144,{"title":2184,"slug":2185,"category":1217,"order":2186},"伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来","bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai",145,{"title":2188,"slug":2189,"category":1217,"order":2190},"巴菲特72条投资经典语录","ba-fei-te-72tiao-tou-zi-jing-dian-yu-lu",146,{"title":2192,"slug":2193,"category":1217,"order":2194},"巴菲特：你应该了解珠宝生意","ba-fei-te-ni-ying-gai-liao-jie-zhu-bao-sheng-yi",147,{"title":2196,"slug":2197,"category":1217,"order":2198},"巴菲特：如何建立能力圈","ba-fei-te-ru-he-jian-li-neng-li-quan",148,{"title":2200,"slug":2201,"category":1217,"order":2202},"巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑","ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji",149,{"title":2204,"slug":2205,"category":1217,"order":2206},"康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值","kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi",150,{"title":2208,"slug":2209,"category":1217,"order":2210},"考夫曼：Glenair 企业文化","kao-fu-man-glenair-qi-ye-wen-hua",151,[2212,2216,2219,2222,2225,2228,2231,2234,2237,2241,2245,2248,2251,2254,2257,2260,2263,2266,2269,2272,2275,2278,2281,2284,2287,2291,2294,2297,2300,2303,2306,2309,2312,2315,2318,2322,2325,2328,2331,2334,2337,2340,2343,2347,2350,2353,2356,2359,2362,2365,2368,2371,2374,2377,2380,2383,2386,2389,2392,2395,2398,2401,2404,2407,2410,2413,2416,2419,2422,2425,2428,2433,2437,2441,2445,2449,2453,2457,2461,2465,2469,2473,2477,2481,2485,2489,2493,2497,2501,2505,2509],{"title":2213,"slug":2214,"category":2215,"order":1213},"本分","benfen","核心哲学",{"title":2217,"slug":2218,"category":2215,"order":1193},"平常心","pingchangxin",{"title":2220,"slug":2221,"category":2215,"order":1234},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing",{"title":2223,"slug":2224,"category":2215,"order":1244},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui",{"title":2226,"slug":2227,"category":2215,"order":1254},"能力圈","nengliquan",{"title":2229,"slug":2230,"category":2215,"order":1264},"不做什么","buzuoshenme",{"title":2232,"slug":2233,"category":2215,"order":1274},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou",{"title":2235,"slug":2236,"category":2215,"order":1284},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang",{"title":2238,"slug":2239,"category":2240,"order":1294},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","投资理念",{"title":2242,"slug":2243,"category":2244,"order":1304},"负债","fuzhai","财务指标",{"title":2246,"slug":2247,"category":2240,"order":1304},"商业模式","shangyemoshi",{"title":2249,"slug":2250,"category":2240,"order":1314},"护城河","huchenghe",{"title":2252,"slug":2253,"category":2244,"order":1314},"净现金","jingxianjin",{"title":2255,"slug":2256,"category":2244,"order":1324},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing",{"title":2258,"slug":2259,"category":2240,"order":1324},"现金流","xianjinliu",{"title":2261,"slug":2262,"category":2244,"order":1334},"真实利润","zhenshilirun",{"title":2264,"slug":2265,"category":2240,"order":1334},"折现","zhexian",{"title":2267,"slug":2268,"category":2240,"order":1344},"安全边际","anquanbianji",{"title":2270,"slug":2271,"category":2244,"order":1344},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan",{"title":2273,"slug":2274,"category":2240,"order":1354},"基本面","jibenmian",{"title":2276,"slug":2277,"category":2240,"order":1364},"机会成本","jihuichengben",{"title":2279,"slug":2280,"category":2240,"order":1374},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou",{"title":2282,"slug":2283,"category":2240,"order":1384},"投机","touji",{"title":2285,"slug":2286,"category":2240,"order":1394},"止损","zhisun",{"title":2288,"slug":2289,"category":2290,"order":1404},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业经营",{"title":2292,"slug":2293,"category":2290,"order":1414},"品牌","pinpai",{"title":2295,"slug":2296,"category":2290,"order":1424},"差异化","chayihua",{"title":2298,"slug":2299,"category":2290,"order":1434},"用户体验","yonghutiyan",{"title":2301,"slug":2302,"category":2290,"order":1444},"渠道","qudao",{"title":2304,"slug":2305,"category":2290,"order":1454},"平台","pingtai",{"title":2307,"slug":2308,"category":2290,"order":1464},"生态系统","shengtaixitong",{"title":2310,"slug":2311,"category":2290,"order":1474},"单一产品","danyichanpin",{"title":2313,"slug":2314,"category":2290,"order":1484},"造钟人","zaozhongren",{"title":2316,"slug":2317,"category":2290,"order":1494},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu",{"title":2319,"slug":2320,"category":2321,"order":1504},"进取心","jinquxin","品格与心性",{"title":2323,"slug":2324,"category":2321,"order":1514},"耐心","naixin",{"title":2326,"slug":2327,"category":2321,"order":1524},"责任心","zerenxin",{"title":2329,"slug":2330,"category":2321,"order":1534},"爱心","aixin",{"title":2332,"slug":2333,"category":2321,"order":1544},"信誉","xinyu",{"title":2335,"slug":2336,"category":2321,"order":1551},"正直","zhengzhi",{"title":2338,"slug":2339,"category":2321,"order":1558},"理性","lixing",{"title":2341,"slug":2342,"category":2321,"order":1565},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi",{"title":2344,"slug":2345,"category":2346,"order":2003},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","访谈实录",{"title":2348,"slug":2349,"category":2346,"order":2010},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua",{"title":2351,"slug":2352,"category":2346,"order":2014},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu",{"title":2354,"slug":2355,"category":2346,"order":2018},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang",{"title":2357,"slug":2358,"category":2346,"order":2022},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang",{"title":2360,"slug":2361,"category":2346,"order":2026},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing",{"title":2363,"slug":2364,"category":2346,"order":2030},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong",{"title":2366,"slug":2367,"category":2346,"order":2034},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan",{"title":2369,"slug":2370,"category":2346,"order":2038},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang",{"title":2372,"slug":2373,"category":2346,"order":2042},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou",{"title":2375,"slug":2376,"category":2346,"order":2046},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu",{"title":2378,"slug":2379,"category":2346,"order":2050},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang",{"title":2381,"slug":2382,"category":2346,"order":2054},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan",{"title":2384,"slug":2385,"category":2346,"order":2058},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu",{"title":2387,"slug":2388,"category":2346,"order":2062},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu",{"title":2390,"slug":2391,"category":2346,"order":2066},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo",{"title":2393,"slug":2394,"category":2346,"order":2070},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang",{"title":2396,"slug":2397,"category":2346,"order":2074},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan",{"title":2399,"slug":2400,"category":2346,"order":2078},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu",{"title":2402,"slug":2403,"category":2346,"order":2082},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus",{"title":2405,"slug":2406,"category":2346,"order":2086},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh",{"title":2408,"slug":2409,"category":2346,"order":2090},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj",{"title":2411,"slug":2412,"category":2346,"order":2094},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao",{"title":2414,"slug":2415,"category":2346,"order":2098},"2013年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang",{"title":2417,"slug":2418,"category":2346,"order":2102},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang",{"title":2420,"slug":2421,"category":2346,"order":2106},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban",{"title":2423,"slug":2424,"category":2346,"order":2110},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu",{"title":2426,"slug":2427,"category":2346,"order":2114},"2025年： 方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing",{"title":2429,"slug":2430,"category":2431,"order":2432},"问答录：第一章 投资大道","dadaotouziwendalu-diyizhangtouzidadao","投资问答录",200,{"title":2434,"slug":2435,"category":2431,"order":2436},"问答录：第二章 商业模式和企业文化","dadaotouziwendalu-dierzhangshangyemoshiheqiyewenhua",201,{"title":2438,"slug":2439,"category":2431,"order":2440},"问答录：第三章 公司点评","dadaotouziwendalu-disanzhanggongsidianping",202,{"title":2442,"slug":2443,"category":2431,"order":2444},"问答录：第四章 人生箴言","dadaotouziwendalu-disizhangrenshengzhenyan",203,{"title":2446,"slug":2447,"category":2431,"order":2448},"问答录：第五章 演讲与访谈","dadaotouziwendalu-diwuzhangyanjiangyufangtan",204,{"title":2450,"slug":2451,"category":2431,"order":2452},"问答录：第六章 更新","dadaotouziwendalu-diliuzhangduzhegengxin",205,{"title":2454,"slug":2455,"category":2431,"order":2456},"商业逻辑篇：第1节：伟大企业","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di1jie-weidaqiye",401,{"title":2458,"slug":2459,"category":2431,"order":2460},"商业逻辑篇：第2节：商业模式","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di2jie-shangyemoshi",402,{"title":2462,"slug":2463,"category":2431,"order":2464},"商业逻辑篇：第3节：企业文化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di3jie-qiyewenhua",403,{"title":2466,"slug":2467,"category":2431,"order":2468},"商业逻辑篇：第4节：产品、差异化与创新","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di4jie-chanpin-chayihua-yu-chuangxin",404,{"title":2470,"slug":2471,"category":2431,"order":2472},"商业逻辑篇：第5节：品牌、营销与广告","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di5jie-pinpai-yingxiao-yu-guanggao",405,{"title":2474,"slug":2475,"category":2431,"order":2476},"商业逻辑篇：第6节：收购和多元化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di6jie-shougouheduoyuanhua",406,{"title":2478,"slug":2479,"category":2431,"order":2480},"商业逻辑篇：第7节：Stop doing list（不为清单）","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di7jie-stop-doing-list-buweiqingdan",407,{"title":2482,"slug":2483,"category":2431,"order":2484},"投资问答录商业逻辑篇：前言：买股票就是买公司","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-qianyan-maiqushoujiiumaishangsi",408,{"title":2486,"slug":2487,"category":2431,"order":2488},"投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念","duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian",410,{"title":2490,"slug":2491,"category":2431,"order":2492},"投资逻辑篇：第2章：投资理解","duanyongping-touziluoji-di2jie-touzilijie",411,{"title":2494,"slug":2495,"category":2431,"order":2496},"投资问答录：第3章 golf和投资","duanyongping-touziluoji-di3zhang-golfhetouzi",412,{"title":2498,"slug":2499,"category":2431,"order":2500},"投资逻辑篇：第4章 财务理解","duanyongping-touziwendalu-touziluoji-di4zhang-caiwulijie",413,{"title":2502,"slug":2503,"category":2431,"order":2504},"投资逻辑篇：第5章：估值逻辑","duanyongping-touziluoji-di5zhang-guzhiluoji",414,{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":2431,"order":2508},"投资逻辑篇：第6章 投资方法论","duanyongping-touziluoji-di6zhang-touzifangfalun",415,{"title":2510,"slug":2511,"category":2431,"order":2512},"投资逻辑篇：第7章：案例分析","duanyongping-touziluoji-di7zhang-anlifenxi",416,[2514,2517,2520,2523,2527,2531,2534,2538,2540,2543,2546,2549,2553,2556,2559,2562,2565,2569,2572,2575,2578,2581,2585,2588,2591,2593,2596,2599,2602,2605,2608,2611,2614,2617,2620,2623,2626,2629,2632,2635,2638,2641,2644,2647,2650,2653,2656,2659,2662,2665,2668,2671,2674,2677,2680,2683,2686,2689,2692,2695,2698,2701,2704,2707,2710,2713,2717,2720,2723,2726,2729,2733,2736,2739,2742],{"title":2226,"slug":2515,"category":2516,"order":1213},"ability-circle","决策与战略",{"title":2518,"slug":2519,"category":2516,"order":1193},"逆向思维","inversion",{"title":2276,"slug":2521,"category":2522,"order":1234},"opportunity-cost","经济学",{"title":2524,"slug":2525,"category":2526,"order":1244},"复利","compound-interest","数学与概率论",{"title":2528,"slug":2529,"category":2530,"order":1254},"激励机制","incentives","心理学",{"title":2532,"slug":2533,"category":2526,"order":1264},"概率思维","probabilistic-thinking",{"title":2535,"slug":2536,"category":2537,"order":1274},"二阶效应","second-order-effects","哲学与逻辑",{"title":2267,"slug":2539,"category":2516,"order":1284},"margin-of-safety",{"title":2541,"slug":2542,"category":2530,"order":1294},"心理误判","psychology-of-misjudgment",{"title":2544,"slug":2545,"category":2516,"order":1304},"检查清单","checklist",{"title":2547,"slug":2548,"category":2522,"order":1314},"规模优势","scale-advantage",{"title":2550,"slug":2551,"category":2552,"order":1324},"冗余与容错","redundancy","工程学\u002F系统",{"title":2554,"slug":2555,"category":2526,"order":1334},"排列组合","combinatorics",{"title":2557,"slug":2558,"category":2526,"order":1344},"费马-帕斯卡","fermat-pascal",{"title":2560,"slug":2561,"category":2526,"order":1354},"均值回归","regression-to-the-mean",{"title":2563,"slug":2564,"category":2526,"order":1364},"量化分析","quantitative-analysis",{"title":2566,"slug":2567,"category":2568,"order":1374},"临界点\u002F相变","critical-point-phase-transition","物理学",{"title":2570,"slug":2571,"category":2568,"order":1384},"平衡态","equilibrium",{"title":2573,"slug":2574,"category":2568,"order":1394},"熵增定律","entropy",{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":2568,"order":1404},"能量守恒","conservation-of-energy",{"title":2579,"slug":2580,"category":2568,"order":1414},"杠杆原理","leverage",{"title":2582,"slug":2583,"category":2584,"order":1424},"自然选择","natural-selection","生物学\u002F进化论",{"title":2586,"slug":2587,"category":2584,"order":1434},"物竞天择","competition-for-resources",{"title":2589,"slug":2590,"category":2584,"order":1444},"进化思维","evolutionary-thinking",{"title":2307,"slug":2592,"category":2584,"order":1454},"ecosystem",{"title":2594,"slug":2595,"category":2530,"order":1464},"爱好倾向","liking-tendency",{"title":2597,"slug":2598,"category":2530,"order":1474},"讨厌倾向","disliking-tendency",{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":2530,"order":1484},"避免怀疑倾向","doubt-avoidance-tendency",{"title":2603,"slug":2604,"category":2530,"order":1494},"一致性倾向","consistency-tendency",{"title":2606,"slug":2607,"category":2530,"order":1504},"好奇心倾向","curiosity-tendency",{"title":2609,"slug":2610,"category":2530,"order":1514},"康德式公平","kantian-fairness",{"title":2612,"slug":2613,"category":2530,"order":1524},"艳羡\u002F妒忌倾向","envy-jealousy-tendency",{"title":2615,"slug":2616,"category":2530,"order":1534},"反馈倾向","reciprocation-tendency",{"title":2618,"slug":2619,"category":2530,"order":1544},"权威误导","authority-misinfluence",{"title":2621,"slug":2622,"category":2530,"order":1551},"重视理由","reason-respecting-tendency",{"title":2624,"slug":2625,"category":2530,"order":1558},"过度乐观","over-optimism",{"title":2627,"slug":2628,"category":2530,"order":1565},"损失厌恶","loss-aversion",{"title":2630,"slug":2631,"category":2530,"order":1572},"否认倾向","denial-tendency",{"title":2633,"slug":2634,"category":2530,"order":1579},"过度反应","overreaction-tendency",{"title":2636,"slug":2637,"category":2530,"order":1586},"社群影响","social-influence",{"title":2639,"slug":2640,"category":2530,"order":1593},"压力倾向","stress-influence-tendency",{"title":2642,"slug":2643,"category":2530,"order":1600},"物质主义","materialism-tendency",{"title":2645,"slug":2646,"category":2530,"order":1607},"废话倾向","twaddle-tendency",{"title":2648,"slug":2649,"category":2530,"order":1614},"确认偏误","confirmation-bias",{"title":2651,"slug":2652,"category":2530,"order":1621},"锚定效应","anchoring-effect",{"title":2654,"slug":2655,"category":2530,"order":1628},"现时偏差","present-bias",{"title":2657,"slug":2658,"category":2530,"order":1635},"贪婪倾向","greed-tendency",{"title":2660,"slug":2661,"category":2522,"order":1642},"边际成本\u002F收益","marginal-cost-benefit",{"title":2663,"slug":2664,"category":2522,"order":1649},"供需关系","supply-and-demand",{"title":2666,"slug":2667,"category":2522,"order":1656},"帕累托最优","pareto-optimality",{"title":2669,"slug":2670,"category":2522,"order":1663},"竞争性毁灭","creative-destruction",{"title":2672,"slug":2673,"category":2516,"order":1670},"双轨分析","two-track-analysis",{"title":2675,"slug":2676,"category":2516,"order":1201},"非线性思维","nonlinear-thinking",{"title":2678,"slug":2679,"category":2516,"order":1681},"极化思考","extreme-thinking",{"title":2681,"slug":2682,"category":2516,"order":1688},"必要功","necessary-work",{"title":2684,"slug":2685,"category":2552,"order":1695},"停机问题","halting-problem",{"title":2687,"slug":2688,"category":2552,"order":1702},"闭环系统","closed-loop-system",{"title":2690,"slug":2691,"category":2552,"order":1709},"故障安全","fail-safe",{"title":2693,"slug":2694,"category":2552,"order":1716},"反向设计","reverse-design",{"title":2696,"slug":2697,"category":2552,"order":1723},"瓶颈分析","bottleneck-analysis",{"title":2699,"slug":2700,"category":2537,"order":1730},"第一性原理","first-principles",{"title":2702,"slug":2703,"category":2537,"order":1737},"证伪思维","falsification",{"title":2705,"slug":2706,"category":2537,"order":1744},"奥卡姆剃刀","occams-razor",{"title":2708,"slug":2709,"category":2537,"order":1751},"中道思维","middle-way",{"title":2711,"slug":2712,"category":2537,"order":1758},"不可知论","agnosticism",{"title":2714,"slug":2715,"category":2716,"order":1765},"大数定律","law-of-large-numbers","统计学",{"title":2718,"slug":2719,"category":2716,"order":1772},"样本偏差","sample-bias",{"title":2721,"slug":2722,"category":2716,"order":1779},"相关性≠因果","correlation-not-causation",{"title":2724,"slug":2725,"category":2716,"order":1786},"幸存者偏差","survivorship-bias",{"title":2727,"slug":2728,"category":2716,"order":1793},"基本比率","base-rate",{"title":2730,"slug":2731,"category":2732,"order":1800},"社会认同","social-proof","社会学",{"title":2734,"slug":2735,"category":2732,"order":1807},"部落本能","tribal-instinct",{"title":2737,"slug":2738,"category":2732,"order":1814},"金蛋定律","golden-egg-rule",{"title":2740,"slug":2741,"category":2732,"order":1821},"互利共生","mutualism",{"title":2743,"slug":2744,"category":2732,"order":1828},"激励传导","incentive-transmission",1778147264418]