[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3231},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1695,"library-sidebar-dao":2697,"library-sidebar-models":2999},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1681,"date":1682,"description":1683,"extension":1684,"meta":1685,"navigation":1686,"order":1687,"path":1688,"seo":1689,"seoDescription":1683,"seoTitle":1690,"slug":1691,"stem":1692,"__hash__":1693,"_collection":1694},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1984 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1677},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,577,583,588,591,594,597,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,624,627,630,828,831,834,837,840,843,846,849,852,855,858,861,864,867,869,872,1115,1118,1121,1124,1127,1130,1133,1136,1139,1142,1145,1148,1151,1154,1157,1160,1163,1166,1169,1172,1175,1178,1181,1184,1333,1338,1341,1344,1347,1350,1353,1356,1359,1362,1365,1368,1371,1374,1377,1380,1383,1386,1389,1392,1395,1398,1401,1468,1473,1476,1479,1482,1485,1488,1491,1494,1497,1500,1503,1506,1513,1516,1519,1522,1525,1528,1531,1534,1537,1540,1543,1546,1549,1552,1555,1558,1561,1564,1567,1570,1573,1576,1583,1586,1589,1592,1595,1598,1601,1604,1607,1610,1613,1616,1619,1622,1625,1628,1631,1634,1637,1640,1643,1646,1649,1652,1655,1658,1661,1664,1667,1670],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1984-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,18,19],{},"1984年我们的净资产增加了1.526亿美元，每股约增长133美元。这个数字听起来还不错，但实际上只能算中等水平。经济收益必须与产生它的资本相比较来评估。过去二十年来，我们每股账面价值的年复合增长率为22.1%（从1964年的19.46美元增长到1984年的1,108.77美元），但1984年的增长率只有13.6%。",[14,21,22],{},"正如我们去年讨论过的，每股内在商业价值的增长才是真正重要的经济衡量标准。不过内在商业价值的计算涉及太多主观判断。就我们的情况来说，账面价值是一个有用的替代指标，虽然有些低估。在我看来，1984年内在价值和账面价值的增长幅度大致相当。",[14,24,25],{},"过去我曾用学术的口吻告诉过各位，资本规模的急速膨胀必然会拖累资本回报率。遗憾的是，我的学术口吻现在不得不让位给新闻播报的口吻了。我们过去22%的增长率已成历史。要在未来十年达到哪怕年均15%的增长率（假设我们继续维持目前的股利政策，这一点后面会详细讨论），我们需要总共赚到大约39亿美元。要达成这个目标，必须要有几个大点子——小打小闹可不行。我的执行合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 和我目前还没有什么好主意，不过根据经验，好点子偶尔会冒出来的。（这算什么战略规划啊？）",[10,27,28],{"id":28},"报告收益的来源",[14,30,31],{},"下表显示了伯克希尔 (Berkshire) 报告收益的来源。1983年年中伯克希尔与蓝筹印花 (Blue Chip Stamps) 合并，导致伯克希尔在许多下属企业中的所有权比例发生了变化。因此，表格的前两列最能反映各项业务的基本经营状况。",[14,33,34],{},"各企业因处置资产而产生的所有重大非经常性损益均汇总在表格底部的证券交易一栏中，不计入经营收益。（我们认为任何单一年度的已实现资本利得或损失数字都没有太大意义，但多年累计的已实现和未实现资本利得总额却非常重要。）",[14,36,37],{},"此外，商誉摊销不计入各项具体业务，而是单独列示，原因在1983年年报附录中已详细说明。",[39,40,41,64],"table",{},[42,43,44],"thead",{},[45,46,47,50,53,55,57,59,62],"tr",{},[48,49],"th",{},[48,51,52],{},"税前收益",[48,54,52],{},[48,56,52],{},[48,58,52],{},[48,60,61],{},"税后净收益",[48,63,61],{},[65,66,67,86,105,122,139,160,181,203,226,248,269,291,314,337,358,381,401,424,445,468,491,511,531,554],"tbody",{},[45,68,69,72,75,77,80,82,84],{},[70,71],"td",{},[70,73,74],{},"合计",[70,76,74],{},[70,78,79],{},"伯克希尔份额",[70,81,79],{},[70,83,79],{},[70,85,79],{},[45,87,88,91,94,97,99,101,103],{},[70,89,90],{},"（千美元）",[70,92,93],{},"1984",[70,95,96],{},"1983",[70,98,93],{},[70,100,96],{},[70,102,93],{},[70,104,96],{},[45,106,107,110,112,114,116,118,120],{},[70,108,109],{},"经营收益：",[70,111],{},[70,113],{},[70,115],{},[70,117],{},[70,119],{},[70,121],{},[45,123,124,127,129,131,133,135,137],{},[70,125,126],{},"保险集团：",[70,128],{},[70,130],{},[70,132],{},[70,134],{},[70,136],{},[70,138],{},[45,140,141,144,147,150,152,154,157],{},[70,142,143],{},"承保",[70,145,146],{},"$ (48,060)",[70,148,149],{},"$ (33,872)",[70,151,146],{},[70,153,149],{},[70,155,156],{},"$ (25,955)",[70,158,159],{},"$ (18,400)",[45,161,162,165,168,171,173,175,178],{},[70,163,164],{},"净投资收益",[70,166,167],{},"68,903",[70,169,170],{},"43,810",[70,172,167],{},[70,174,170],{},[70,176,177],{},"62,059",[70,179,180],{},"39,114",[45,182,183,186,189,192,194,197,200],{},[70,184,185],{},"布法罗新闻报",[70,187,188],{},"27,328",[70,190,191],{},"19,352",[70,193,188],{},[70,195,196],{},"16,547",[70,198,199],{},"13,317",[70,201,202],{},"8,832",[45,204,205,208,211,214,217,220,223],{},[70,206,207],{},"内布拉斯加家具店 (1)",[70,209,210],{},"14,511",[70,212,213],{},"3,812",[70,215,216],{},"11,609",[70,218,219],{},"3,049",[70,221,222],{},"5,917",[70,224,225],{},"1,521",[45,227,228,231,234,237,239,242,245],{},[70,229,230],{},"喜诗糖果",[70,232,233],{},"26,644",[70,235,236],{},"27,411",[70,238,233],{},[70,240,241],{},"24,526",[70,243,244],{},"13,380",[70,246,247],{},"12,212",[45,249,250,253,256,259,261,263,266],{},[70,251,252],{},"联合零售商店",[70,254,255],{},"(1,072)",[70,257,258],{},"697",[70,260,255],{},[70,262,258],{},[70,264,265],{},"(579)",[70,267,268],{},"355",[45,270,271,274,277,280,282,285,288],{},[70,272,273],{},"蓝筹印花 (2)",[70,275,276],{},"(1,843)",[70,278,279],{},"(1,422)",[70,281,276],{},[70,283,284],{},"(1,876)",[70,286,287],{},"(899)",[70,289,290],{},"(353)",[45,292,293,296,299,302,305,308,311],{},[70,294,295],{},"互助储贷公司",[70,297,298],{},"1,456",[70,300,301],{},"(798)",[70,303,304],{},"1,166",[70,306,307],{},"(467)",[70,309,310],{},"3,151",[70,312,313],{},"1,917",[45,315,316,319,322,325,328,331,334],{},[70,317,318],{},"精密钢铁",[70,320,321],{},"4,092",[70,323,324],{},"3,241",[70,326,327],{},"3,278",[70,329,330],{},"2,102",[70,332,333],{},"1,696",[70,335,336],{},"1,136",[45,338,339,342,345,348,350,352,355],{},[70,340,341],{},"纺织业务",[70,343,344],{},"418",[70,346,347],{},"(100)",[70,349,344],{},[70,351,347],{},[70,353,354],{},"226",[70,356,357],{},"(63)",[45,359,360,363,366,369,372,375,378],{},[70,361,362],{},"韦斯科金融",[70,364,365],{},"9,777",[70,367,368],{},"7,493",[70,370,371],{},"7,831",[70,373,374],{},"4,844",[70,376,377],{},"4,828",[70,379,380],{},"3,448",[45,382,383,386,389,392,394,397,399],{},[70,384,385],{},"商誉摊销",[70,387,388],{},"(1,434)",[70,390,391],{},"(532)",[70,393,388],{},[70,395,396],{},"(563)",[70,398,388],{},[70,400,396],{},[45,402,403,406,409,412,415,418,421],{},[70,404,405],{},"利息支出",[70,407,408],{},"(14,734)",[70,410,411],{},"(15,104)",[70,413,414],{},"(14,097)",[70,416,417],{},"(13,844)",[70,419,420],{},"(7,452)",[70,422,423],{},"(7,346)",[45,425,426,429,432,435,437,439,442],{},[70,427,428],{},"股东指定捐赠",[70,430,431],{},"(3,179)",[70,433,434],{},"(3,066)",[70,436,431],{},[70,438,434],{},[70,440,441],{},"(1,716)",[70,443,444],{},"(1,656)",[45,446,447,450,453,456,459,462,465],{},[70,448,449],{},"其他",[70,451,452],{},"4,932",[70,454,455],{},"10,121",[70,457,458],{},"4,529",[70,460,461],{},"9,623",[70,463,464],{},"3,476",[70,466,467],{},"8,490",[45,469,470,473,476,479,482,485,488],{},[70,471,472],{},"经营收益",[70,474,475],{},"87,739",[70,477,478],{},"61,043",[70,480,481],{},"82,021",[70,483,484],{},"51,410",[70,486,487],{},"70,015",[70,489,490],{},"48,644",[45,492,493,496,499,502,504,506,508],{},[70,494,495],{},"盖可保险特别分配",[70,497,498],{},"--",[70,500,501],{},"19,575",[70,503,498],{},[70,505,501],{},[70,507,498],{},[70,509,510],{},"18,224",[45,512,513,516,519,521,524,526,529],{},[70,514,515],{},"通用食品特别分配",[70,517,518],{},"8,111",[70,520,498],{},[70,522,523],{},"7,896",[70,525,498],{},[70,527,528],{},"7,294",[70,530,498],{},[45,532,533,536,539,542,545,548,551],{},[70,534,535],{},"出售证券及资产之利得",[70,537,538],{},"104,699",[70,540,541],{},"67,260",[70,543,544],{},"101,376",[70,546,547],{},"65,089",[70,549,550],{},"71,587",[70,552,553],{},"45,298",[45,555,556,559,562,565,568,571,574],{},[70,557,558],{},"总收益——所有实体",[70,560,561],{},"$ 200,549",[70,563,564],{},"$ 147,878",[70,566,567],{},"$ 191,293",[70,569,570],{},"$ 136,074",[70,572,573],{},"$ 148,896",[70,575,576],{},"$ 112,166",[14,578,579],{},[580,581,582],"em",{},"(1) 内布拉斯加家具店1983年数据仅包含10月至12月。",[14,584,585],{},[580,586,587],{},"(2) 蓝筹印花因1983年年中合并，1984年和1983年数据不具有可比性。",[14,589,590],{},"眼尖的股东可能会注意到，盖可保险 (GEICO) 特别分配的金额和在表格中的分类位置与去年的列示有所不同。虽然这种重新分类减少了\"会计\"收益，但变化纯属形式上的，并无实质影响。不过，背后的故事倒很有趣。",[14,592,593],{},"正如去年的报告所述：(1) 1983年年中，盖可保险发出要约收购，回购自家股票；(2) 与此同时，我们签署书面合同，同意按比例向盖可保险出售一定数量的股份，出售比例与盖可保险从其他所有股东手中回购的总股数成正比；(3) 要约收购完成后，我们向盖可保险交付了35万股，收到2,100万美元现金，而我们在盖可保险中的持股比例与收购前完全一样；(4) 我们与盖可保险的交易属于按比例赎回，一家顶级律师事务所毫无保留地出具了这一意见；(5) 税法从逻辑上将此类按比例赎回视为实质上等同于股息分配，因此，我们收到的2,100万美元仅按6.9%的公司间股息税率纳税；(6) 重要的是，这2,100万美元远低于我们在盖可保险应得的历年未分配收益，因此，从经济实质的角度看，在我们看来它就等同于一笔股息。",[14,595,596],{},"由于这笔交易金额重大且并不常见，我们去年在季报和年报中都做了特别说明。此外，我们也向审计师——毕马威会计师事务所 (Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.) 详细解释了此交易。毕马威的奥马哈办事处和芝加哥审查合伙人均无异议地同意了我们将其列为股息的处理方式。",[14,598,599],{},"1984年，我们与通用食品 (General Foods) 进行了一笔几乎完全相同的交易。唯一的区别是，通用食品是在公开市场上分批回购股票的，而盖可保险是一次性要约收购。就通用食品而言，每当他们在市场上回购股票时，我们也相应出售一定数量的股份，以确保我们的持股比例始终不变。同样，我们的交易也是在回购开始前依据书面合同执行的。同样，我们收到的现金也远低于自我们买入以来应归属于我们的累计未分配收益。我们总共从通用食品收到21,843,601美元现金，而持股比例则保持在8.75%不变。",[14,601,602],{},"这时毕马威纽约总部介入了。1984年底，纽约方面表示不同意其奥马哈办事处和芝加哥审查合伙人的结论。纽约的观点是，盖可保险和通用食品的交易应当被视为伯克希尔出售股票，而不是收到股息。在这种会计处理方式下，我们在每家公司股票投资的一部分成本应当与赎回所得款项相抵，产生的收益应列为资本利得，而非股息收入。这仅仅是会计处理上的差异，与税务无关：毕马威同意就美国国税局 (IRS) 而言，这些交易属于股息。",[14,604,605],{},"我们从经济实质和恰当的会计处理两方面都不同意纽约方面的看法。但为了避免收到保留意见的审计报告，我们在此采用了毕马威1984年的观点，并相应地对1983年进行了重述。然而，这一切对内在商业价值没有任何影响：我们在盖可保险和通用食品的所有权权益、我们的现金、税务状况以及持股的市场价值和计税基础都保持不变。",[14,607,608],{},"今年我们再次与通用食品签署了类似的协议，在他们进行公开市场回购时同步出售我们的股份。这项安排确保我们的持股比例始终保持不变。通过保持持股比例不变，我们可以确保在税务上享受股息待遇。在我们看来，这笔交易的经济实质同样是股息收入。但除非出台专门针对此类情况的会计准则，否则我们将继续把赎回视为股票出售而非股息收入来核算。我们将继续在报告中显著标明任何此类特殊交易。",[14,610,611],{},"虽然我们在这些按比例赎回中享受了低税率，也参与了好几次这样的交易，但我们认为此类回购对不出售股份的股东同样有利——甚至可能更有利。当经营出色、财务稳健的公司发现自己的股价远低于内在价值时，没有什么比回购自家股票更能让股东受益的了。",[14,613,614],{},"（我们对股票回购的认可仅限于那些基于价格与价值关系作出的回购，并不包括那种令人厌恶的\"绿邮讹诈\"式回购。在那类交易中，两方为了各自的私利而剥削无辜且不知情的第三方。参与者分别是：(1) 那个\"股东\"勒索者——他持股的油墨还没干，就向管理层发出\"要钱还是要命\"的通牒；(2) 急于息事宁人的公司内部人士——什么价都愿意出，只要不是自己掏腰包；(3) 那些钱被(2)用来打发(1)的无辜股东。尘埃落定后，抢劫得手的短期股东发表一番关于\"自由企业\"的演说，被抢劫的管理层发表一番关于\"公司最佳利益\"的演说，而一旁默默埋单的无辜股东什么都没说。）",[14,616,617],{},"当价格与价值之间存在巨大差距时，我们最大的几笔投资所在的公司都进行了大规模的股票回购。作为股东，我们发现这既令人鼓舞又获益良多，原因有两个——一个显而易见，另一个则比较微妙，不是每个人都能理解。显而易见的一点涉及简单的算术：以远低于每股内在商业价值的价格进行大规模回购，会立即以非常显著的方式增加每股价值。当公司回购自己的股票时，往往花1美元就能获得2美元的现值。企业并购计划几乎从来没有这么美好，而且在令人沮丧的大量案例中，每花出去的1美元根本换不回1美元的价值。",[14,619,620],{},"回购的另一个好处不那么容易精确衡量，但长期来看可能同样重要。当一家公司在市值远低于内在商业价值时进行回购，管理层清楚地表明了他们致力于增加股东财富，而不是扩张管理层的势力范围——后者对股东毫无益处（甚至有害）。看到这一点，现有股东和潜在股东都会提高对公司未来回报的预期。这种向上修正反过来又推动市场价格更加贴近内在商业价值。这样的价格是完全理性的。投资者理应为一家由具有明确维护股东利益倾向的管理层所经营的企业，支付比那些由自私自利、各行其是的管理层所经营的企业更高的价格。（举个极端的例子，你愿意花多少钱成为罗伯特·韦斯科 (Robert Wesco) 控股的公司的少数股东？）",[14,622,623],{},"关键词是\"明确表明\"。一个在回购明显有利于股东的情况下却始终拒绝回购的管理层，暴露出来的动机远比他自己意识到的要多。无论他多么频繁、多么雄辩地念叨那些公关部门炮制的套话——比如本年度最流行的\"股东财富最大化\"——市场都会正确地给他管理的资产打折。他的心不在嘴上——过不了多久，市场也不会再听了。",[14,625,626],{},"我们从盖可保险、华盛顿邮报 (Washington Post) 和通用食品这三大重仓股的大规模回购中获益匪浅——其他股东也是如此。（我们的第四大持仓埃克森石油 (Exxon) 也在明智地、积极地回购股票，只是我们最近才建仓。）在这些公司中，股东们的利益都因以低价回购而获得了实质性的增强。我们对投资这类经济前景优良且管理层注重股东权益的企业感到非常安心。",[14,628,629],{},"下表显示了我们1984年底持有的上市股票。所有数字已扣除韦斯科金融 (Wesco) 和内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart) 少数股东的权益。",[39,631,632,648],{},[42,633,634],{},[45,635,636,639,642,645],{},[48,637,638],{},"持股数量",[48,640,641],{},"公司",[48,643,644],{},"成本（千美元）",[48,646,647],{},"市值（千美元）",[65,649,650,664,678,692,706,720,734,748,762,776,790,802,815],{},[45,651,652,655,658,661],{},[70,653,654],{},"690,975",[70,656,657],{},"联合出版公司 (Affiliated Publications, Inc.)",[70,659,660],{},"$ 3,516",[70,662,663],{},"$ 32,908",[45,665,666,669,672,675],{},[70,667,668],{},"740,400",[70,670,671],{},"美国广播公司 (American Broadcasting Companies, Inc.)",[70,673,674],{},"44,416",[70,676,677],{},"46,738",[45,679,680,683,686,689],{},[70,681,682],{},"3,895,710",[70,684,685],{},"埃克森石油公司 (Exxon Corporation)",[70,687,688],{},"173,401",[70,690,691],{},"175,307",[45,693,694,697,700,703],{},[70,695,696],{},"4,047,191",[70,698,699],{},"通用食品公司 (General Foods Corporation)",[70,701,702],{},"149,870",[70,704,705],{},"226,137",[45,707,708,711,714,717],{},[70,709,710],{},"6,850,000",[70,712,713],{},"盖可保险公司 (GEICO Corporation)",[70,715,716],{},"45,713",[70,718,719],{},"397,300",[45,721,722,725,728,731],{},[70,723,724],{},"2,379,200",[70,726,727],{},"汉迪哈曼公司 (Handy & Harman)",[70,729,730],{},"27,318",[70,732,733],{},"38,662",[45,735,736,739,742,745],{},[70,737,738],{},"818,872",[70,740,741],{},"国际公众集团 (Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.)",[70,743,744],{},"2,570",[70,746,747],{},"28,149",[45,749,750,753,756,759],{},[70,751,752],{},"555,949",[70,754,755],{},"西北工业公司 (Northwest Industries)",[70,757,758],{},"26,581",[70,760,761],{},"27,242",[45,763,764,767,770,773],{},[70,765,766],{},"2,553,488",[70,768,769],{},"时代公司 (Time, Inc.)",[70,771,772],{},"89,327",[70,774,775],{},"109,162",[45,777,778,781,784,787],{},[70,779,780],{},"1,868,600",[70,782,783],{},"华盛顿邮报公司 (The Washington Post Company)",[70,785,786],{},"10,628",[70,788,789],{},"149,955",[45,791,792,794,796,799],{},[70,793],{},[70,795],{},[70,797,798],{},"$ 573,340",[70,800,801],{},"$ 1,231,560",[45,803,804,806,809,812],{},[70,805],{},[70,807,808],{},"其他全部普通股持仓",[70,810,811],{},"11,634",[70,813,814],{},"37,326",[45,816,817,819,822,825],{},[70,818],{},[70,820,821],{},"普通股合计",[70,823,824],{},"$ 584,974",[70,826,827],{},"$ 1,268,886",[14,829,830],{},"要找到既符合我们定性标准、又符合我们价值与价格定量标准的股票投资，十多年来从没有像现在这么难。我们尽量避免降低标准，但我们发现什么都不做才是最困难的。（有一位英国政治家将英国在十九世纪的伟大归功于一项\"高明的无为而治\"的政策。这种策略历史学家称赞起来很容易，但当局者要真正做到却难得很。）",[14,832,833],{},"除了本节开头提供的数据之外，有关我们旗下各业务的信息请见第42-47页的管理层讨论。查理·芒格在第50-59页的报告中对韦斯科金融的业务有详细阐述。你会发现他对储蓄行业状况的评论格外有趣。我们其他主要控股业务是内布拉斯加家具店、喜诗糖果 (See's Candies)、布法罗晚报 (Buffalo Evening News) 和保险集团，下面我将逐一介绍。",[10,835,836],{"id":836},"内布拉斯加家具店",[14,838,839],{},"去年我向各位介绍了B夫人（罗斯·布鲁姆金，Rose Blumkin）和她的家族。我说他们非常了不起，但其实我还是低估了。又观察了一年他们卓越的才华和品格之后，我可以坦诚地说，我从未见过一个管理团队比布鲁姆金 (Blumkin) 家族运作得更好、品行更佳的。",[14,841,842],{},"B夫人是董事长，今年91岁了。最近当地报纸引用了她的一句话：\"我回家就是吃饭睡觉，仅此而已。我迫不及待地等天亮，好赶紧回去上班。\"B夫人每周七天都在店里，从开门到关门。她一天做出的决策可能比大多数CEO一年做的还多（而且还做得更好）。",[14,844,845],{},"5月，B夫人获得纽约大学颁发的商学荣誉博士学位。（她可是个跳级生：在获得这个博士学位之前，她这辈子一天学都没上过。）此前获颁纽约大学商学荣誉学位的有埃克森石油CEO小克利夫顿·加文 (Clifton Garvin, Jr.)、时任花旗银行CEO沃尔特·里斯顿 (Walter Wriston)、时任IBM CEO弗兰克·卡里 (Frank Cary)、时任通用汽车CEO汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy)，以及最近的保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker)。（他们与B夫人为伍，算是荣幸了。）",[14,847,848],{},"布鲁姆金家族的血脉可没有稀释。B夫人的儿子路易 (Louie) 和他的三个儿子罗恩 (Ron)、艾文 (Irv) 和史蒂夫 (Steve)，都为NFM惊人的成功做出了巨大贡献。年轻一代就读的是最好的商学院——由B夫人和路易亲自授课的那所——他们的业绩就是最好的毕业证。",[14,850,851],{},"去年NFM的净销售额增加了1,430万美元，总销售额达到1.15亿美元，全部来自奥马哈的一家门店。这是迄今为止美国单一家居用品店创造的最大销售额。事实上，去年的销售增长额本身就已经超过了许多中等规模成功门店的全年销量。NFM取得这样的成功，是因为它配得上这样的成功。几个数字就能说明原因。",[14,853,854],{},"全美最大的独立家居用品专业零售商莱维茨家具 (Levitz Furniture) 在其1984年的10-K年报中声称，其价格\"通常低于所在地区传统家具店的价格\"。莱维茨当年的毛利率为44.4%（也就是说，平均而言，顾客每付100美元，其进货成本只有55.6美元）。而NFM的毛利率还不到莱维茨的一半。NFM之所以能维持如此低的加价率，靠的是超凡的运营效率：运营费用（工资、租金、广告等）约占销售额的16.5%，而莱维茨则高达35.6%。",[14,856,857],{},"我们无意批评莱维茨，它的经营管理也很出色。但NFM的运营实在是太了不起了（别忘了，这一切的起点是B夫人1937年投入的500美元）。凭借无与伦比的效率和精明的大批量采购，NFM在为资本赚取丰厚回报的同时，每年为顾客节省了至少3,000万美元——如果他们去那些维持正常加价率的商店购买同样的商品的话。这种节省使NFM不断扩大其辐射范围，从而享受到远超奥马哈市场自然增长的发展速度。",[14,859,860],{},"不少人问我，布鲁姆金家族到底有什么经营秘诀。说来并不深奥。整个家族的所有成员都做到了以下几点：(1) 对工作充满热情和精力，勤勉程度足以让本杰明·富兰克林 (Ben Franklin) 和霍雷肖·阿尔杰 (Horatio Alger)（美国以描写白手起家故事闻名的作家）自愧弗如；(2) 以极其务实的态度界定自己的专业能力圈，并在能力圈内果断行事；(3) 对于能力圈之外的提议——无论多么诱人——一概不予理会；(4) 对待每一个人都保持最高的道德品行。（B夫人把这些归结为一句话：\"便宜卖，讲实话。\"）",[14,862,863],{},"我们对B夫人及其家族人格的信任，从我们购买公司90%股份的过程就能看得出来：NFM从未进行过审计，我们也没有要求审计；我们没有盘点存货，也没有核实应收账款；我们没有查验房产权属。我们给了B夫人一张5,500万美元的支票，她给了我们她的承诺。这是一笔公平的交易。",[14,865,866],{},"能和布鲁姆金家族成为合伙人，是你我的幸运。",[10,868,230],{"id":230},[14,870,871],{},"下表是喜诗糖果自被蓝筹印花收购以来的经营回顾：",[39,873,874,893],{},[42,875,876],{},[45,877,878,881,884,887,890],{},[48,879,880],{},"截至约12月31日的52-53周年度",[48,882,883],{},"销售收入",[48,885,886],{},"税后经营利润",[48,888,889],{},"糖果销售磅数",[48,891,892],{},"年末门店数",[65,894,895,911,928,945,962,979,996,1013,1030,1047,1064,1081,1098],{},[45,896,897,899,902,905,908],{},[70,898,93],{},[70,900,901],{},"$ 135,946,000",[70,903,904],{},"$ 13,380,000",[70,906,907],{},"24,759,000",[70,909,910],{},"214",[45,912,913,916,919,922,925],{},[70,914,915],{},"1983（53周）",[70,917,918],{},"133,531,000",[70,920,921],{},"13,699,000",[70,923,924],{},"24,651,000",[70,926,927],{},"207",[45,929,930,933,936,939,942],{},[70,931,932],{},"1982",[70,934,935],{},"123,662,000",[70,937,938],{},"11,875,000",[70,940,941],{},"24,216,000",[70,943,944],{},"202",[45,946,947,950,953,956,959],{},[70,948,949],{},"1981",[70,951,952],{},"112,578,000",[70,954,955],{},"10,779,000",[70,957,958],{},"24,052,000",[70,960,961],{},"199",[45,963,964,967,970,973,976],{},[70,965,966],{},"1980",[70,968,969],{},"97,715,000",[70,971,972],{},"7,547,000",[70,974,975],{},"24,065,000",[70,977,978],{},"191",[45,980,981,984,987,990,993],{},[70,982,983],{},"1979",[70,985,986],{},"87,314,000",[70,988,989],{},"6,330,000",[70,991,992],{},"23,985,000",[70,994,995],{},"188",[45,997,998,1001,1004,1007,1010],{},[70,999,1000],{},"1978",[70,1002,1003],{},"73,653,000",[70,1005,1006],{},"6,178,000",[70,1008,1009],{},"22,407,000",[70,1011,1012],{},"182",[45,1014,1015,1018,1021,1024,1027],{},[70,1016,1017],{},"1977",[70,1019,1020],{},"62,886,000",[70,1022,1023],{},"6,154,000",[70,1025,1026],{},"20,921,000",[70,1028,1029],{},"179",[45,1031,1032,1035,1038,1041,1044],{},[70,1033,1034],{},"1976（53周）",[70,1036,1037],{},"56,333,000",[70,1039,1040],{},"5,569,000",[70,1042,1043],{},"20,553,000",[70,1045,1046],{},"173",[45,1048,1049,1052,1055,1058,1061],{},[70,1050,1051],{},"1975",[70,1053,1054],{},"50,492,000",[70,1056,1057],{},"5,132,000",[70,1059,1060],{},"19,134,000",[70,1062,1063],{},"172",[45,1065,1066,1069,1072,1075,1078],{},[70,1067,1068],{},"1974",[70,1070,1071],{},"41,248,000",[70,1073,1074],{},"3,021,000",[70,1076,1077],{},"17,883,000",[70,1079,1080],{},"170",[45,1082,1083,1086,1089,1092,1095],{},[70,1084,1085],{},"1973",[70,1087,1088],{},"35,050,000",[70,1090,1091],{},"1,940,000",[70,1093,1094],{},"17,813,000",[70,1096,1097],{},"169",[45,1099,1100,1103,1106,1109,1112],{},[70,1101,1102],{},"1972",[70,1104,1105],{},"31,337,000",[70,1107,1108],{},"2,083,000",[70,1110,1111],{},"16,954,000",[70,1113,1114],{},"167",[14,1116,1117],{},"这样的业绩并不是靠行业整体的上升浪潮。恰恰相反，盒装巧克力行业中许多知名企业在同一时期不是亏损就是利润微薄。据我们所知，只有一家规模较大的竞争对手实现了高盈利。喜诗的成功是卓越产品与卓越经理人查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins) 的完美结合。",[14,1119,1120],{},"1984年我们的涨价幅度远不如前几年：每磅售价为5.49美元，仅比1983年上涨1.4%。幸运的是，我们在成本控制方面取得了良好进展——这个问题近几年一直困扰着我们。除了基本上不受我们控制的原材料成本外，每磅成本去年仅增加了2.2%。",[14,1122,1123],{},"我们的成本控制难题因为同店销量（以磅数而非金额计）的小幅下降而雪上加霜。近几年，通过门店销售的总磅数之所以能维持在大致不变的水平，完全是靠每年净增几家新店。这种\"开更多的店才能维持同样销量\"的局面，自然对每磅销售成本造成了很大的压力。",[14,1125,1126],{},"1984年，同店销量下降了1.1%。但由于门店数量增加，门店总销量增长了0.6%。（两个百分比均已调整以消除1983年53周财年的影响。）",[14,1128,1129],{},"喜诗的业务每年都变得更加季节性。圣诞节前四周的销量占全年的40%，利润约占75%。复活节和情人节期间我们也能赚到不少，但一年中其余时间就基本上是原地踏步了。近年来，圣诞节期间的门店销量变得越来越重要，团购订单和邮购订单也是如此。业务越来越集中在圣诞节期间，带来了大量的管理难题，这些难题都被查克和他的团队以非凡的技巧和优雅加以解决。",[14,1131,1132],{},"他们的解决方案丝毫没有在服务质量或产品质量上做出妥协。我们大多数较大的竞争对手可做不到这一点。尽管他们面临的需求高峰和低谷不像我们这么极端，但他们通过添加防腐剂或冷冻成品来平滑生产周期，从而降低单位成本。我们拒绝使用这类手段——实际上，我们宁可让生产部门头疼，也不愿改变产品。",[14,1134,1135],{},"我们在商场的门店面临着许多新的食品和零食供应商的激烈竞争，尤其是非节假日期间。我们需要新产品来反击，1984年我们推出了六款糖果棒，总体上反响不错。我们计划进一步推出新产品。",[14,1137,1138],{},"1985年，我们将加倍努力把每磅成本的增幅控制在通胀率以下。但要持续做到这一点，同店磅数必须增长才行。1985年的售价预计将比1984年平均提高6%-7%。假设同店销量不变，利润应该会温和增长。",[10,1140,1141],{"id":1141},"布法罗晚报",[14,1143,1144],{},"1984年布法罗晚报的利润远超我们的预期。和喜诗一样，成本控制方面成效显著。不计编辑部工时，总工作时数减少了约2.8%。随着生产效率的提高，总成本仅增长了4.9%。斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey) 和他的管理团队的表现堪称业界翘楚。",[14,1146,1147],{},"然而，我们现在面临着成本加速上升的问题。1984年年中，我们与工会签订了新的多年期合同，其中包含了一笔大幅的\"追补\"加薪。这笔追补完全合理：在1977年至1982年报纸亏损期间，工会的合作精神是我们在成本竞争力方面最终战胜《信使快报》(Courier-Express) 的重要因素。如果当时我们没有压低成本，那场竞争的结局可能完全不同。",[14,1149,1150],{},"由于新的工会合同在不同时间生效，追补加薪对1984年的成本影响有限。但到1985年就会几乎全部体现出来，届时我们的单位劳动力成本增幅将大大高于行业水平。我们希望通过继续小幅提升生产率来缓解这一增长，但今年显著更高的工资成本是无法避免的。新闻纸价格走势也不如1984年有利。主要由于这两个因素，我们预计布法罗晚报的利润率将至少出现轻微收缩。",[14,1152,1153],{},"对我们有利的是两个具有重大经济意义的因素：",[14,1155,1156],{},"(1) 我们的发行量不同寻常地集中在对广告客户效用最高的区域。相比之下，发行范围广泛的\"区域性\"报纸，相当一部分发行量分布在对大多数广告客户几乎没有效用的地区。几百英里之外的订户，对于你想通过分类广告出售小狗，或者对于只在市区开店的杂货商来说，几乎毫无价值。\"浪费\"的发行量——广告客户如此称呼——损害了盈利能力：报纸的费用主要由总发行量决定，而通常占总营收70%-80%的广告收入却只与有效发行量有关。",[14,1158,1159],{},"(2) 我们对布法罗零售市场的渗透率非常出色；广告客户只需使用布法罗新闻报，就能触达几乎所有潜在客户。",[14,1161,1162],{},"去年我告诉过各位读者接受度方面的不寻常表现：在全美最大的100家报纸中，我们的日报渗透率排名第一，周日版排名第三。最新数据显示，我们日报渗透率仍然排名第一，周日版上升到了第二位。（即便如此，布法罗的家庭户数有所下降，因此日报发行量略有减少；周日版则持平。）",[14,1164,1165],{},"我还告诉过各位，读者如此欢迎我们的一个主要原因是，我们提供了不同寻常的大量新闻内容：在同等规模的主流报纸中，我们投入新闻版面的比例是最高的。1984年，我们的\"新闻版面比\"为50.9%（1983年为50.4%），远高于典型的35%-40%。我们将继续把这一比例维持在50%左右。此外，尽管我们去年减少了其他部门的总工作时数，但编辑部的人员配置保持不变，而且会继续如此。编辑部成本1984年增长了9.1%，远高于总成本4.9%的增幅。",[14,1167,1168],{},"我们的新闻版面政策使我们在新闻纸上花了大量额外的钱。因此，我们的新闻成本（新闻版面的纸张成本加上编辑部工资和费用）占总营收的比例，高于大多数同等规模的主流报纸。不过，无论是我们的报纸还是其他占主导地位的报纸，都有充足的利润空间来承担这些成本：在同等规模的报纸中，新闻成本\"高\"与\"低\"之间的差距可能只有三个百分点，而税前利润率往往是这个数字的十倍。",[14,1170,1171],{},"一家占据主导地位的报纸，其经济效益是极为出色的，堪称整个商业世界中最好的之一。报纸老板们自然乐于相信，他们出色的盈利能力完全是因为持续推出优秀的产品。然而这个令人舒适的理论却在一个令人不安的事实面前黯然失色。一流报纸固然利润丰厚，但三流报纸赚的钱同样多甚至更多——只要这份报纸在当地市场占据主导地位就行。当然，产品质量可能是这份报纸获得主导地位的关键因素。我们相信布法罗晚报就是如此，这在很大程度上要归功于我们之前的前辈，如阿尔弗雷德·基尔霍弗 (Alfred Kirchhofer)。",[14,1173,1174],{},"一旦占据了主导地位，决定报纸质量高低的就是报纸自身，而不是市场。不管质量好坏，它都能赚钱。大多数行业却不是这样：低劣的品质通常导致低劣的经济回报。但即使是一份糟糕的报纸，对大多数市民来说仍然物超所值，仅仅因为它的\"布告栏\"价值。在其他条件相同的情况下，糟糕的产品无法达到一流产品所能达到的读者数量。但是，一份糟糕的报纸对大多数市民来说仍然不可或缺，而能吸引他们注意力的东西，也会吸引广告商的注意力。",[14,1176,1177],{},"由于市场对品质的要求并不高，管理层必须自己给自己施加高标准。我们承诺在新闻投入上超过行业平均水平，这是一个重要的量化标准。我们相信斯坦·利普西和默里·莱特 (Murray Light) 将继续执行那些更加重要的质量标准。查理和我相信报纸是社会中非常特殊的机构。我们为布法罗新闻报感到自豪，并且期待在未来几年有更大的骄傲理由。",[10,1179,1180],{"id":1180},"保险业务",[14,1182,1183],{},"下面是我们惯常的保险行业两项关键数据的更新版本：",[39,1185,1186,1198],{},[42,1187,1188],{},[45,1189,1190,1192,1195],{},[48,1191],{},[48,1193,1194],{},"保费收入年增长率 (%)",[48,1196,1197],{},"保户分红后综合比率",[65,1199,1200,1210,1220,1230,1240,1251,1261,1271,1281,1291,1301,1311,1322],{},[45,1201,1202,1204,1207],{},[70,1203,1102],{},[70,1205,1206],{},"10.2",[70,1208,1209],{},"96.2",[45,1211,1212,1214,1217],{},[70,1213,1085],{},[70,1215,1216],{},"8.0",[70,1218,1219],{},"99.2",[45,1221,1222,1224,1227],{},[70,1223,1068],{},[70,1225,1226],{},"6.2",[70,1228,1229],{},"105.4",[45,1231,1232,1234,1237],{},[70,1233,1051],{},[70,1235,1236],{},"11.0",[70,1238,1239],{},"107.9",[45,1241,1242,1245,1248],{},[70,1243,1244],{},"1976",[70,1246,1247],{},"21.9",[70,1249,1250],{},"102.4",[45,1252,1253,1255,1258],{},[70,1254,1017],{},[70,1256,1257],{},"19.8",[70,1259,1260],{},"97.2",[45,1262,1263,1265,1268],{},[70,1264,1000],{},[70,1266,1267],{},"12.8",[70,1269,1270],{},"97.5",[45,1272,1273,1275,1278],{},[70,1274,983],{},[70,1276,1277],{},"10.3",[70,1279,1280],{},"100.6",[45,1282,1283,1285,1288],{},[70,1284,966],{},[70,1286,1287],{},"6.0",[70,1289,1290],{},"103.1",[45,1292,1293,1295,1298],{},[70,1294,949],{},[70,1296,1297],{},"3.9",[70,1299,1300],{},"106.0",[45,1302,1303,1305,1308],{},[70,1304,932],{},[70,1306,1307],{},"4.4",[70,1309,1310],{},"109.7",[45,1312,1313,1316,1319],{},[70,1314,1315],{},"1983（修正）",[70,1317,1318],{},"4.5",[70,1320,1321],{},"111.9",[45,1323,1324,1327,1330],{},[70,1325,1326],{},"1984（估计）",[70,1328,1329],{},"8.1",[70,1331,1332],{},"117.7",[14,1334,1335],{},[580,1336,1337],{},"数据来源：Best's Aggregates and Averages",[14,1339,1340],{},"综合比率代表保险总成本（赔付损失加费用）与保费收入之比；低于100表示承保盈利，高于100表示承保亏损。",[14,1342,1343],{},"多年来我们一直说，保险行业每年保费增长约10%才能使综合比率大致保持不变。我们做出这个判断时假设：费用占保费收入的比例保持相对稳定，而赔付损失将以每年约10%的速度增长，这是承保量增加、通胀和扩大保单承保范围的司法裁决三方面共同作用的结果。",[14,1345,1346],{},"令人沮丧的是，事实证明我们的判断非常准确：如果保费自1979年起每年增长10%，到1984年累计增长将达61%，1984年的综合比率也会与1979年的100.6几乎一样。然而实际情况是，行业保费只增长了30%，1984年的综合比率高达117.7。今天我们仍然认为，保费收入的年增长率是承保盈利趋势的关键指标。",[14,1348,1349],{},"目前看来，1985年的保费增长将远超10%。因此，假设灾害水平\"正常\"，我们预计综合比率将在年底前开始回落。但是，根据我们对全行业赔付损失的假设（即每年增长10%），保费需要连续五年增长15%，才能把综合比率拉回到100。这意味着到1989年行业保费翻一番，我们认为这极不可能。我们预计保费将连续数年略高于10%的增长，随后激烈的价格竞争将使综合比率维持在108-113之间。",[14,1351,1352],{},"我们自己1984年的综合比率是惨不忍睹的134。（此处及本报告全文中，在报告这一比率时，我们均不包含结构化结算和损失准备金假设业务。）这已是连续第三年我们的承保业绩远逊于行业水平。我们预计1985年综合比率将有所改善，而且改善幅度将大大超过行业。迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg) 接手保险业务以来，已经纠正了许多我之前犯下的错误。此外，过去几年我们的业务集中在一些表现不佳的险种上，这种情况已开始让我们的许多竞争对手伤筋动骨，甚至淘汰出局。随着竞争格局的变化，1984年下半年我们得以在某些重要险种上大幅提价，而业务量几乎没有流失。",[14,1354,1355],{},"多年来我一直跟各位说，总有一天我们卓越的财务实力会在保险业务的竞争中发挥真正的作用。这一天可能已经到来了。毫无疑问，我们是全美最强大的财产意外险公司，资本实力远优于那些规模大得多的知名公司。",[14,1357,1358],{},"同样重要的是，我们的战略就是要保持这种优势。保险的买家花钱换来的只是一纸承诺。这纸承诺的价值应当以逆境而非顺境来衡量。最起码，这纸承诺应当能够经受住金融市场长期低迷与承保结果极度恶化同时出现的考验。我们的保险子公司既有意愿、也有能力在任何环境下兑现承诺——能说到做到的公司并不多。",[14,1360,1361],{},"我们的财务实力在去年提到的结构化结算和损失准备金假设业务中尤其是一项宝贵资产。结构化结算中的索赔人和已经将损失准备金再保出去的保险公司，都需要百分之百确信未来数十年内的赔付一定会按时到位。财产意外险领域中，能够通过这种毋庸置疑的长期实力检验的公司寥寥无几。（事实上，我们自己愿意将风险再保出去的对手，也只有屈指可数的几家公司。）",[14,1363,1364],{},"我们在这些新业务上取得了增长：年内我们持有的用以对冲假设负债的资金从1,620万美元增长到了3,060万美元。我们预计增长将持续，而且有可能大大加速。为了支持这一预期增长，我们已向旗下专门从事结构化结算和损失准备金假设业务的再保险部门——哥伦比亚保险公司 (Columbia Insurance Company) 大幅增资。虽然竞争颇为激烈，但回报应当令人满意。",[14,1366,1367],{},"盖可保险那边，一如既往地多是好消息。1984年该公司主要保险业务实现了出色的投保量增长，投资组合的表现也继续非常优异。虽然年末承保业绩有所恶化，但仍远好于行业水平。截至年底，我们持有盖可保险36%的股权，因此我们在其8.85亿美元直接财产\u002F意外险保费收入中的权益约为3.2亿美元，是我们自有保费收入的两倍多。",[14,1369,1370],{},"过去几年我曾跟各位说过，盖可保险的股价表现大幅超越了其经营业绩——尽管后者也非常出色。那几年，盖可保险在我们资产负债表上的账面价值的增长速度，超过了盖可保险内在商业价值的增长速度。我当时警告过各位，股价表现优于经营表现的情况显然不可能年年发生，总有些年份股价表现会逊于经营表现。1984年这一天来了：我们在盖可保险的账面价值几乎没有变化，但其内在商业价值却大幅增长。由于1984年初伯克希尔净资产的27%是盖可保险，其市值的停滞对我们当年的净资产增长率产生了显著影响。对此我们一点也不沮丧：我们宁愿看到盖可保险的企业价值在一年内增长X倍而市值下降，也不愿看到内在价值只增长二分之一X而股价飙升。就盖可保险而言——就像我们所有的投资一样——我们关注的是经营表现，而非市场表现。如果我们对企业的判断是正确的，市场最终会跟上来。",[14,1372,1373],{},"各位伯克希尔的股东从盖可保险杰克·伯恩 (Jack Byrne)、比尔·斯奈德 (Bill Snyder) 和路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson) 的才华中获益良多。在核心业务——低成本汽车和住宅保险——方面，盖可保险拥有重大且可持续的竞争优势。这在商业领域是一种稀缺资产，在金融服务领域更是几乎不存在。（盖可保险本身就说明了这一点：尽管公司管理层非常出色，但在核心业务之外的所有尝试中，盖可保险都未能实现卓越的盈利。）在保险这样一个庞大的行业中，像盖可保险这样的竞争优势蕴含着巨大的经济回报潜力，而杰克和比尔一直在出色地将这种潜力转化为现实。",[14,1375,1376],{},"盖可保险核心保险业务所产生的资金，大部分都交给路易来投资。路易身上罕见地同时具备了创造出色长期投资业绩所需的气质和智力。以低于平均水平的风险，他创造了迄今为止保险业中最好的投资回报。我对这三位杰出经理人的努力和才华表示赞赏和感谢。",[10,1378,1379],{"id":1379},"损失准备金中的误差",[14,1381,1382],{},"任何在财产意外险领域有重大投资的公司股东，都应当了解该行业在报告当期收益时固有的弱点。菲尔·格雷厄姆 (Phil Graham) 担任华盛顿邮报发行人时，曾把日报形容为\"历史的第一份粗稿\"。不幸的是，一家财产意外险公司的财务报表，充其量也只是收益和财务状况的第一份粗稿。",[14,1384,1385],{},"主要问题出在成本的确定上。保险公司的大部分成本来自索赔损失，而在许多应当计入当年保费收入对应的损失中，有不少是极其难以估算的。有时候，损失的程度，甚至损失是否存在，要过好几十年才能明朗。",[14,1387,1388],{},"财产意外险公司在当期损益表中计入的赔付费用包括：(1) 当年已发生并已支付的赔付；(2) 当年已发生并已报案但尚未结清的赔付估计；(3) 当年已发生但保险公司尚未知晓的损失的最终金额估计（术语叫\"IBNR\"：已发生但未报告）；(4) 当年对往年第(2)、(3)项类似估计的修正净影响。",[14,1390,1391],{},"此类修正可能会拖延很久，但最终，任何导致X年收入错报的损失估计都必须被纠正——不管是在X+1年还是X+10年。这必然意味着纠正年度的收益也被扭曲了。举个例子：假设1979年我们的一位投保人伤害了索赔人，我们估计大概要赔1万美元。当年我们会在损益表上计入1万美元的预估赔付损失，并在资产负债表上相应设立等额的负债准备金。如果1984年双方以10万美元和解，我们就要在1984年的损益中额外计入9万美元的赔付损失，尽管这笔成本实际上属于1979年。如果那笔业务是我们1979年的唯一经营活动，我们在成本上就严重误导了自己，在收益上就严重误导了各位。",[14,1393,1394],{},"在汇总财产意外险公司损益表上那些看似精确实则具有欺骗性的数字时，不可避免地大量使用估计值，这意味着无论管理层的意图多么正确，误差都一定会渗入。为了尽量减少误差，大多数保险公司运用各种统计技术，对构成估算总负债原始数据的成千上万个案件准备金进行调整。这些调整所产生的额外准备金被冠以不同的名称——\"整体准备金\"、\"发展准备金\"或\"补充准备金\"。调整的目标应当是：当财务报表日期之前发生的所有损失最终全部理赔完毕时，损失准备金总额有一半概率略微偏高，一半概率略微偏低。",[14,1396,1397],{},"在伯克希尔，我们也增加了自认为适当的补充准备金，但近年来证明这些准备金并不充足。重要的是，各位必须了解我们在准备金提列上误差的严重程度。这样你可以亲眼看到这个过程有多么不精确，也可以判断我们是否存在某种系统性偏差，从而对我们当前和未来的数字保持警惕。",[14,1399,1400],{},"下表第一列显示了我们过去几年向各位报告的承保业绩，同时提供了一年之后以\"假如我们当初就知道了我们现在认为自己知道的\"为基础的修正数字。我之所以说\"我们认为自己知道的\"，是因为修正后的数字仍然包含对前些年发生的损失的大量估计。不过，前几年的许多索赔已经结案，所以一年后的估计数中猜测的成分比当初少了不少：",[39,1402,1403,1416],{},[42,1404,1405],{},[45,1406,1407,1410,1413],{},[48,1408,1409],{},"年份",[48,1411,1412],{},"向各位报告的承保结果",[48,1414,1415],{},"一年后经验修正数字",[65,1417,1418,1428,1438,1448,1458],{},[45,1419,1420,1422,1425],{},[70,1421,966],{},[70,1423,1424],{},"$ 6,738,000",[70,1426,1427],{},"$ 14,887,000",[45,1429,1430,1432,1435],{},[70,1431,949],{},[70,1433,1434],{},"1,478,000",[70,1436,1437],{},"(1,118,000)",[45,1439,1440,1442,1445],{},[70,1441,932],{},[70,1443,1444],{},"(21,462,000)",[70,1446,1447],{},"(25,066,000)",[45,1449,1450,1452,1455],{},[70,1451,96],{},[70,1453,1454],{},"(33,192,000)",[70,1456,1457],{},"(50,974,000)",[45,1459,1460,1462,1465],{},[70,1461,93],{},[70,1463,1464],{},"(45,413,000)",[70,1466,1467],{},"?",[14,1469,1470],{},[580,1471,1472],{},"本表不包含结构化结算和损失准备金假设业务。",[14,1474,1475],{},"为了帮助各位理解这张表，让我解释一下最新的数字：1984年报告的税前承保亏损4,540万美元，由两部分组成——我们估计1984年度业务本身亏损的2,760万美元，加上1983年修正后新增的1,780万美元亏损。",[14,1477,1478],{},"正如你从这张表中看到的，我向各位报告的数字与实际情况有很大出入，而且近年来总是把承保状况描绘得比实际情况更好。这让我格外懊恼，原因有三：(1) 我希望你能相信我说的话；(2) 如果我们早知道亏损的真实程度，我和保险经理人一定会以更大的紧迫感采取行动；(3) 我们按照虚增的收益纳了税，等于白白多给了政府不该给的钱。（这些多缴的税款最终会纠正过来，但拖延时间很长，而且我们收不到多缴金额的利息。）",[14,1480,1481],{},"由于我们的业务侧重于意外险和再保险，与专做财产保险的公司相比，我们在估算赔付成本上面临更多困难。（当你承保的建筑物被烧毁时，你能很快搞清楚成本有多少；但当你承保的雇主发现一个退休员工几十年前因工作而患上了某种疾病时，那可就复杂得多了。）即便如此，我仍然觉得我们的误差令人汗颜。在直接承保方面，我们严重低估了法院和陪审团无视事实真相与过往判例、一味让\"深口袋\"掏钱的汹涌趋势。我们也低估了巨额赔偿案件的宣传对陪审团的传染效应。在准备金不足问题最严重的再保险方面，我们的客户保险公司也犯了同样的错误。由于我们是根据他们提供的数据设定准备金的，他们的错误就变成了我们的错误。",[14,1483,1484],{},"最近我听到一个故事，正好可以用来说明我们的保险会计问题：一个人正在海外旅行，接到姐姐的电话，说父亲突然去世了。他无法赶回去参加葬礼，于是让姐姐安排一切丧葬事宜，账单寄给他。回国后他收到一张几千美元的账单，立刻付了钱。下个月又来了一张15美元的账单，他也付了。再过一个月，又是一张类似的账单。当第三张15美元的账单出现时，他终于忍不住打电话问姐姐怎么回事。\"噢，\"姐姐说，\"我忘了告诉你——我们给爸爸穿的是租来的西装。\"",[14,1486,1487],{},"如果你近年来从事保险业——尤其是再保险业——这个故事一定会让你很心酸。我们已尽力在当期财务报表中包含所有类似\"租西装\"的负债，但鉴于过去的记录，我们应该谦虚一些，而各位也应该多几分怀疑。我将继续在每年的报告中如实告知各位浮出水面的误差——不论是好消息还是坏消息。",[14,1489,1490],{},"当然，并非行业中所有的准备金误差都是无心之过的蠢事。随着近年来承保业绩持续恶化——加上管理层在编制财务报表时拥有很大的自由裁量权——人性中某些不太美好的一面便暴露了出来。有些公司如果如实评估赔付成本就该倒闭了，但在某些情况下，它们选择对这些尚未支付的金额持极度乐观的态度。还有一些公司从事各种交易来掩盖真实的当期赔付成本。",[14,1492,1493],{},"这两种手段都能\"奏效\"相当长的时间：外部审计师无法有效监督财产意外险公司的财务报表。当一家保险公司的实际负债已超过资产时，宣告这一噩耗的责任要靠保险公司自己来承担。换句话说，需要由尸体自己来出具死亡证明。在这种\"荣誉制度\"下，尸体有时候会给自己来一回\"疑罪从无\"。",[14,1495,1496],{},"在大多数行业中，资不抵债的公司当然会耗尽现金。但保险业不同：你可以已经破产但手里还有大把现金。因为保费在保单签订之初就收进来了，而赔付要很久以后才发生，所以一家保险公司在耗尽净资产之后很久才会真正没钱。事实上，这些\"行尸走肉\"往往加倍努力承接业务，几乎什么价格、什么风险都来者不拒，只求现金持续流入。这些公司的心态就像一个挪用公款的人赌输了偷来的钱——他们指望着下一批业务能侥幸翻本，把前面的窟窿补上。即使翻不了本，亏损持续扩大，对管理层的惩罚也不过如此——亏一亿和亏一千万差别不大；与此同时，在亏损不断攀升的过程中，管理层照样保住了他们的职位和待遇。",[14,1498,1499],{},"其他财产意外险公司的准备金误差对伯克希尔来说绝非事不关己的学术问题。我们不仅饱受那些\"行尸走肉\"不计成本竞争之苦，当它们最终被宣布破产时，我们同样要跟着遭殃。通过各州设立的偿债基金的分摊机制，伯克希尔最终要为那些破产保险公司的资产缺口买一部分单——由于错误报告导致发现延迟，这些缺口通常已膨胀得十分惊人。甚至还存在连锁反应的风险。几家大型保险公司的破产以及随之而来的各州偿债基金分摊，可能会把那些原本体质较弱但尚能存活的公司也拖下水。如果各州监管机构能更及时地识别和关闭破产保险公司，这类危险是可以减轻的，但目前这方面的进展十分缓慢。",[10,1501,1502],{"id":1502},"华盛顿公共供电系统",[14,1504,1505],{},"从1983年10月到1984年6月，伯克希尔的保险子公司持续大量买入华盛顿公共供电系统（\"WPPSS\"）第一、二、三期项目的债券。就是这个机构，在1983年7月1日对其为建设已被放弃的第四、五期项目而发行的22亿美元债券宣布违约。虽然这两类债券在义务人、承诺条款和担保资产上有重大差异，但第四、五期项目的问题给第一、二、三期项目投下了巨大阴影，而且有可能给后者造成严重的问题。此外，第一、二、三期项目本身也有众多问题，可能会削弱甚至摧毁邦纳维尔电力管理局 (Bonneville Power Administration) 担保所带来的良好信用基础。",[14,1507,1508,1509,1512],{},"尽管存在这些重要的不利因素，查理和我判断，",[580,1510,1511],{},"以我们购买债券时承担的风险和伯克希尔支付的价格","（远低于现在的价格），预期回报远远超过了所承担的风险。",[14,1514,1515],{},"如各位所知，我们为保险子公司购买上市股票时，采用的标准与购买一整家企业完全一样。这种企业估值方法在专业基金经理人中并不流行，还被许多学者嗤之以鼻。尽管如此，它给追随者带来了丰厚的回报（对此学者们似乎会说：\"嗯，在实践中也许行得通，但在理论上它永远行不通。\"）简单来说，我们觉得如果能以远低于整家企业每股价值的价格买入一小块经济前景良好的企业——尤其是拥有一组这样的投资组合时——好事就很可能发生。",[14,1517,1518],{},"我们甚至把这种企业估值方法延伸到了债券投资上，比如WPPSS。我们把年底在WPPSS上1.39亿美元的投资成本，和同样金额投资于一家经营性企业进行比较。就WPPSS而言，这门\"生意\"按合同每年可赚2,270万美元税后收益（通过债券利息），而且这些收益以现金形式即时可得。我们找不到经济效益与此相当的经营性企业可供购买。只有为数不多的企业能像我们的WPPSS投资一样，在无杠杆的资本上赚取16.3%的税后回报率，而这类企业一旦可供购买，价格就会远远高于其资本。在一般的协议收购交易中，一家每年税后赚2,270万美元（约相当于税前4,500万美元）的无杠杆企业，可能要价2.5亿到3亿美元（有时还远不止）。对于我们充分了解且非常喜欢的企业，我们很乐意支付这个价钱。但那可是我们购买WPPSS债券所付价格的两倍。",[14,1520,1521],{},"不过，就WPPSS来说，我们认为存在一个非常微小的风险，即这门\"生意\"可能在一两年内变得一文不值。利息支付也有可能中断相当长的一段时间。此外，这门\"生意\"的最大价值也就是我们持有的债券面值2.05亿美元，仅比我们支付的价格高出48%。",[14,1523,1524],{},"上行空间有限是一个重要的减分项。不过需要认识到，除非持续投入更多资本，否则绝大多数经营性企业的上行空间也是有限的。之所以如此，是因为大多数企业无法显著提高其平均股本回报率——即使在通胀环境下也是如此，尽管通胀一度被认为会自动提高回报率。",[14,1526,1527],{},"（让我们把债券当企业投资的例子再推进一步：如果你选择用债券利息收入买入更多同类型债券，从而\"留存\"12%债券的年收益，那么这门债券\"生意\"的收益增长率，将与大多数同样留存全部收益的经营性企业不相上下。以前者为例，今天以1,000万美元买入一只30年期零息12%的债券，到2015年将值3亿美元。以后者为例，一家投入1,000万美元、股本回报率稳定在12%并留存全部收益用于增长的企业，到2015年也将拥有3亿美元的资本。这门生意和那只债券在最后一年的收益都将超过3,200万美元。）",[14,1529,1530],{},"我们这种把债券投资当成一种特殊\"企业投资\"的方法——它有独特的优势也有独特的劣势——也许在各位看来有点古怪。但我们相信，如果投资者能从企业家的视角来审视债券投资，许多令人震惊的投资错误本可以避免。比如，1946年20年期AAA级免税债券的交易收益率略低于1%。实际上，当时购买这些债券的人等于买了一门账面价值回报率只有约1%的\"生意\"（而且永远不可能赚到超过1%），却为这门糟糕透顶的生意支付了100%的账面价值。",[14,1532,1533],{},"如果一个投资者有足够的商业头脑用这种方式来思考——而这恰恰就是那笔交易的真实写照——他一定会大笑着摇头走开。因为与此同时，大量前景光明的企业可以以接近账面价值的价格买到，而这些企业的税后账面价值回报率高达10%、12%甚至15%。1946年，美国大概没有一家企业是以账面价值成交、而买家认为它赚不到超过1%回报率的。但那些习惯于买卖债券的投资者，整整一年都在乐此不疲地按这个标准进行着投资。类似但没那么极端的情况在随后二十年持续存在，债券投资者们心甘情愿地以商业标准衡量完全不合理的条件签下了二十年或三十年的合约。（在我认为迄今为止最好的一本投资著作——本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 的《聪明的投资者》——中，最后一章最后一节的开头写道：\"投资在最像经营企业时最为明智。\"这一节的标题叫\"最后的话\"，起得恰如其分。）",[14,1535,1536],{},"我们必须再次强调，投资WPPSS无疑存在一定的风险。而且这是一种很难评估的风险。如果查理和我这辈子要做50次类似的评估，我们有信心我们的判断整体上会令人满意。但我们不可能在一年里做出50次甚至5次这样的决定。虽然长期累计成绩应该不错，但在任何一年里，我们都有可能显得极其愚蠢。（这就是为什么前面所有句子的主语都是\"查理和我\"或者\"我们\"。）",[14,1538,1539],{},"大多数管理层几乎没有动力去做那种明智但有可能显得像白痴的决策。他们个人的得失利弊太明显了：如果一个非常规决策成功了，不过拍拍肩膀而已；如果失败了，可就要卷铺盖走人了。（随大流犯错才是安全之道；作为一个群体，旅鼠的名声可能很臭，但从来没有哪只单独的旅鼠受到过媒体的批评。）",[14,1541,1542],{},"我们的情况不同。持有伯克希尔47%的股份，查理和我不用担心被炒鱿鱼，而且我们是以所有者而非雇员的身份获得回报。因此，我们对伯克希尔的钱就像对自己的钱一样。这经常让我们在投资和企业管理上做出非常规的举动。",[14,1544,1545],{},"我们保持非常规做法的另一个方面，是我们保险资金投资的高度集中，包括对WPPSS债券的投资。这种集中只有在我们以超强财务实力为后盾开展保险业务时才合理。对于几乎所有其他保险公司来说，类似程度的集中（或接近这种程度）是完全不合适的。他们的资本实力不足以承受一次重大失误，无论从概率分析角度看那个投资机会有多诱人。",[14,1547,1548],{},"凭借我们的财务实力，我们可以大笔买入为数不多的、经过深思熟虑且价格有吸引力的证券。（比利·罗斯 (Billy Rose) 这样描述过度分散的问题：\"如果你的后宫有四十个女人，你永远也不会真正了解她们中的任何一个。\"）长期来看，我们集中投资的策略应该会产生出色的结果，尽管规模的增大会有所拖累。当这个策略某一年表现特别糟的时候——这是必然会发生的——至少各位知道，我们的钱和你们的钱是按同一个基础投入的。",[14,1550,1551],{},"我们买入WPPSS的大部分投资是在不同价格和与当前有所不同的实际情况下进行的。如果我们决定调整仓位，在变动完成之后很久我们才会告知各位股东。（你在读到这份报告的时候，我们可能正在买入或卖出。）证券买卖是一项竞争性的事业，即使买方或卖方多出一点点竞争，都可能让我们损失巨大。我们投资WPPSS的经历就说明了这一点。从1983年10月到1984年6月，我们试图买下几乎所有能买到的第一、二、三期项目债券。然而我们买到的还不到流通债券的3%。假如再多几个资金雄厚的投资者——仅仅因为知道我们在买就跟着进场——我们最终买到的债券数量可能大大减少，而价格则大大提高。（随便一两个搭便车的就能轻轻松松让我们多花500万美元。）正因如此，除非法律要求，我们不会就证券交易活动向任何人发表评论——不论是媒体、股东还是其他任何人。",[14,1553,1554],{},"关于WPPSS投资的最后一点感想：在大多数情况下，我们不喜欢购买长期债券，近年来也很少买。这是因为债券和美元一样\"坚挺\"——而我们对美元的长期前景并不看好。我们相信未来将出现大幅通胀，尽管我们不知道平均通胀率会是多少。此外，我们认为恶性通胀虽然概率不大，但绝非可以忽略不计。",[14,1556,1557],{},"考虑到通胀已经回落到不高的水平，这种可能性似乎荒谬。但我们认为，目前以巨额赤字为特征的财政政策极其危险且难以扭转。（到目前为止，两党大多数政客都遵循着查理·布朗 (Charlie Brown) 的忠告：\"没有什么问题大到跑不掉。\"）如果不加以扭转，高通胀也许会被推迟（甚至可能很长时间），但终究无法避免。而一旦高通胀来临，它就有可能失控、加速飙升。",[14,1559,1560],{},"当年通胀率在5%-10%之间时，股票和债券（作为大类资产）其实差别不大，但恶性通胀就完全是另外一回事了。在那种情况下，多元化的股票投资组合几乎肯定会遭受巨大的实际价值损失。但尚未偿付的债券会亏得更惨。因此，我们认为纯债券组合蕴含着一种虽小但不可接受的\"全军覆没\"风险，我们要求任何长期债券的购买都必须跨越一道特别的门槛。只有当债券投资明显优于其他商业机会时，我们才会参与。这种机会少之又少。",[10,1562,1563],{"id":1563},"股息政策",[14,1565,1566],{},"公司通常会向股东报告股息政策，但很少加以解释。一家公司可能会说：\"我们的目标是发放40%到50%的收益，并以至少等于CPI涨幅的速度增加股息。\"就这样——没有任何分析说明为什么这种特定的政策对企业所有者最有利。然而资本配置对企业和投资管理至关重要。正因如此，我们认为管理层和股东都应当认真思考：在什么情况下应该留存收益，在什么情况下应该分配收益。",[14,1568,1569],{},"首先要理解的是，并非所有收益都生而平等。在许多企业中——尤其是那些资产\u002F利润比率很高的企业——通胀会使部分甚至全部报告收益变成虚幻的。这些虚幻的部分——我们姑且称之为\"受限收益\"——如果企业要维持其经济地位，就不能以股息形式发放。如果把这些收益发放出去，企业将在以下一个或多个方面失去阵地：维持销售量的能力、长期竞争地位、财务实力。不管股息率设定得多么保守，一家持续分配受限收益的公司注定走向衰亡——除非通过其他方式注入股权资本。",[14,1571,1572],{},"受限收益对股东来说并非毫无价值，但往往必须大打折扣。实际上，不管企业的经济前景有多差，它们都被企业所绑架了。（这种不管回报多低都照样留存的情况，十年前被爱迪生联合电气 (Consolidated Edison) 以一种绝妙的讽刺方式无意中传达了出来。当时，惩罚性的监管政策是导致该公司股价低至账面价值四分之一的重要因素——也就是说，每留存一美元再投资于业务，这一美元就只变成25美分的市值。但尽管如此黄金变铅的过程在持续上演，大部分收益仍被再投资于业务，而不是分给股东。与此同时，在纽约各处的施工和维修现场，标语自豪地宣告着公司的口号：\"Dig We Must\"（我们必须挖下去）。）",[14,1574,1575],{},"在这次股息讨论中，受限收益就不再多说了。让我们把话题转向更有价值的不受限制的部分。这些收益无论是留存还是分配，在可操作性上都一样可行。在我们看来，管理层应当选择对企业所有者更有利的那条路。",[14,1577,1578,1579,1582],{},"这条原则并未得到普遍认同。出于种种原因，管理层总喜欢把不受限制的、随时可以分配的收益扣下来——用来扩张他们统治的企业帝国、让自己处于财务上特别舒适的位置等等。但我们认为，留存收益只有一个合理的理由。不受限制的收益只有在以下情况下才应当留存：有合理的前景——最好有历史业绩佐证，或在适当时有对未来深思熟虑的分析——",[580,1580,1581],{},"表明公司每留存一美元，至少能为股东创造一美元的市值","。这只有在留存资本能够产生等于或高于投资者在其他地方一般可获得的回报时才能实现。",[14,1584,1585],{},"为了说明这一点，假设一位投资者持有一种无风险的10%永续债券，这种债券有一个非常特殊的条款。每年投资者可以选择以现金领取10%的利息，或者将利息再投资于更多条款完全相同的10%债券——即同样是永续且提供同样的现金或再投资选择权。如果在某一年，长期无风险债券的市场利率是5%，那么投资者选择拿现金就太蠢了，因为他可以选择的那些10%债券的价值远超面值。在这种情况下，想拿到现金的投资者应该把利息换成额外的债券，然后立即卖掉。这样做他拿到的现金比直接领利息要多得多。假设所有债券都被理性投资者持有，在利率5%的时代，没有人会选择拿现金，即使那些需要现金维持生活的持有人也不会。",[14,1587,1588],{},"然而，如果市场利率是15%，没有理性投资者会愿意让自己的钱按10%的回报率被投资。投资者会选择拿现金，即使他个人完全不需要现金。选择再投资的话，他得到的额外债券的市场价值远低于他本可选择的现金。如果他想要10%的债券，他完全可以拿现金去市场上以大幅折扣购买。",[14,1590,1591],{},"我们这位假想的债券持有人所做的分析，同样适用于股东在思考公司不受限制的收益应当留存还是分配时参考。当然，分析要困难得多，也更容易出错，因为再投资收益的回报率不像我们债券例子中那样是合同约定的，而是一个波动的数字。股东必须估算这个回报率在未来中期的平均水平。不过，一旦做出知情的估算，剩下的分析就简单了：如果预期回报率高，你应当希望收益被再投资；如果再投资的回报率可能很低，你应当希望收益被分配给你。",[14,1593,1594],{},"许多企业的管理层在决定子公司是否应该向母公司分配收益时，思路完全是这样的。在那个层面上，管理者毫不费力就能像精明的所有者一样思考。但到了母公司层面的分配决策，往往就是另一码事了。在这里，管理层常常难以站在股东—所有者的角度来考虑问题。",[14,1596,1597],{},"这种精神分裂式的做法表现为：一家多元化集团的CEO会要求增量资本预期回报率只有5%的子公司A把所有可分配收益上交，以便投资于增量资本预期回报率15%的子公司B。CEO在商学院学到的教条使他不会做出比这更差的行为。但如果他自己对增量资本的长期回报率只有5%——而市场利率是10%——他却很可能对母公司的股东实施一种仅仅遵循公司历史惯例或行业平均水平的股息政策。更有甚者，他会要求子公司经理人详细解释为什么收益应留在子公司而不是上交母公司。但他自己却很少向母公司背后的股东提供类似的分析。",[14,1599,1600],{},"在判断管理层是否应当留存收益时，股东不应简单地拿近几年的总增量收益与总增量资本做比较，因为核心业务的表现可能会扭曲这个比率。在通胀时期，拥有超凡经济特质的核心业务可以用少量增量资本获得极高的回报率（正如去年关于商誉一节中所讨论的）。但除非正在经历巨大的销量增长，优秀企业按定义就会产生大量的超额现金。如果一家公司把大部分超额现金投入了低回报的其他业务，其留存资本的整体回报率可能仍然看起来不错，因为投入核心业务的那一小部分增量资本赚取了非凡的回报。这种情况类似于职业—业余配对高尔夫球赛：即使所有业余选手都打得一塌糊涂，由于职业选手的超凡技艺，球队的最佳成绩看起来还是不错的。",[14,1602,1603],{},"事实上，许多在股本回报率和增量资本回报率方面持续表现良好的公司，确实把很大一部分留存收益投在了经济上毫无竞争力、甚至是灾难性的项目上。然而，它们出色的核心业务——年复一年地收益增长——掩盖了其他方面一次又一次的资本配置失败（通常是高价收购经济本质平庸的企业）。犯了错的管理层每次都会汇报他们从最近一次失望中吸取的教训。然后他们通常马上去寻找下一次受教育的机会。（失败似乎冲昏了他们的头脑。）",[14,1605,1606],{},"在这种情况下，如果留存收益只用于扩大高回报业务，剩余部分以股息形式分配或用于回购股票，股东的境况会好得多——回购既增加了股东在优秀业务中的权益，又让他们免于被迫参与那些不入流的业务。那些持续把优秀业务产生的大部分现金投向低回报项目的高回报企业管理层，应当对这些资本配置决策负责——不管企业整体利润有多高。",[14,1608,1609],{},"以上讨论绝不是说公司的股息应该随着每个季度收益或投资机会的波动而跟着变来变去。上市公司的股东自然偏好稳定、可预期的股息。因此，股息水平应当反映对收益和增量资本回报率的长期预期。由于公司的长期前景通常不会频繁变化，股息政策也不应频繁调整。但长期来看，被管理层扣下的可分配收益应当赚回它们被留下的理由。如果收益被不明智地留存了，那么管理层多半也是被不明智地留任了。",[14,1611,1612],{},"现在让我们回到伯克希尔，看看这些股息原则如何适用。从历史上看，伯克希尔的留存收益回报率远高于市场平均水平，因此每留存一美元就创造了远超一美元的市值。在这种情况下，任何形式的分红都会有悖于股东——无论大小——的经济利益。",[14,1614,1615],{},"事实上，如果早年进行大规模分红，可能会带来灾难性的后果，回顾一下我们的起点就清楚了。当时查理和我控制并管理着三家公司：伯克希尔·哈撒韦、多元零售公司 (Diversified Retailing Company) 和蓝筹印花（现已全部合并为我们现在的运营实体）。蓝筹印花只发了少量股息，伯克希尔和多元零售则分文未发。如果当时这几家公司把赚到的钱全都发掉，我们现在几乎可以肯定一分钱也赚不到——甚至可能连本钱都没有了。这三家公司最初各自靠一门生意赚钱：(1) 伯克希尔的纺织；(2) 多元零售的百货公司；(3) 蓝筹印花的印花票。这些基石业务（需要指出的是，都是由你们的董事长和副董事长精心挑选的）如今分别：(1) 活了下来但几乎没赚到什么钱；(2) 规模萎缩并产生了巨额亏损；(3) 销售额缩水到我们进入时的大约5%。（谁说\"你不可能全输\"？）只有把可用资金投入到好得多的业务中，我们才克服了这些先天不足。（这就像是弥补一段荒废的青春。）显然，多元化对我们大有裨益。",[14,1617,1618],{},"我们预计将继续多元化，同时也支持现有业务的增长。不过正如我们已指出的，这些努力的回报肯定低于我们的历史记录。但只要预期回报率高于每留存一美元创造一美元市值所需的门槛，我们就会继续留存全部收益。一旦我们对未来回报的预估低于这个标准，我们就会把所有无法被有效运用的不受限制收益分配出去。在做出这个判断时，我们会同时审视历史记录和未来前景。由于我们的年度业绩波动较大，我们认为五年滚动平均值是评判历史记录的合适标准。",[14,1620,1621],{},"我们目前的计划是用留存收益进一步充实保险子公司的资本金。我们大多数竞争对手财务状况堪忧，不愿大规模扩张。然而此时行业保费即将大幅增长，1985年可能超过150亿美元，而1983年还不到50亿。这种形势可能为我们带来大量盈利业务。当然结果并不确定，但前景比过去许多年都好得多。",[10,1623,1624],{"id":1624},"杂项",[14,1626,1627],{},"每年到了这里，我都要刊登一则小小的\"企业通缉令\"广告。1984年，我们一位知识渊博且机敏的股东约翰·卢米斯 (John Loomis) 找到了一家完全符合我们所有条件的公司。我们立即跟进，可惜最终因一个偶然的复杂问题而功亏一篑。既然广告还是有效果的，我们原样重登去年的广告：",[14,1629,1630],{},"我们对具备以下条件的公司感兴趣：",[14,1632,1633],{},"(1) 有一定的规模（税后净利润至少500万美元）；",[14,1635,1636],{},"(2) 表现出持续稳定的盈利能力（我们对未来预测不感兴趣，\"困境反转\"型企业也不是我们的菜）；",[14,1638,1639],{},"(3) 企业在很少或没有负债的情况下取得了良好的股本回报率；",[14,1641,1642],{},"(4) 具备现成的管理团队（我们无法提供管理层）；",[14,1644,1645],{},"(5) 业务简单（如果涉及大量技术，我们搞不懂）；",[14,1647,1648],{},"(6) 有一个明确的报价（在价格未知的情况下，我们不想浪费彼此的时间——哪怕只是初步接触）。",[14,1650,1651],{},"我们不会进行恶意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并以最快速度答复是否有兴趣——通常不超过五分钟。我们倾向现金交易，但如果我们获得的内在商业价值与我们付出的一样多，也会考虑发行股票。我们欢迎潜在的卖家通过联系过去与我们有过合作的人来了解我们。对于合适的企业——和合适的人——我们能提供一个好归宿。",[14,1653,1654],{},"我们的年度股东大会将于1985年5月21日在奥马哈举行，我希望各位前来参加。许多年会对股东和管理层来说都是浪费时间。有时候是因为管理层不愿深入讨论实质性的经营问题。但更常见的情况是，一些与会股东更在乎自己的上台表演时刻，而非公司的事务，导致会议变得毫无成效。本应是商业讨论的论坛，结果变成了作秀、发泄和宣传各种议题的场所。（这买卖太划算了：只要买一股，你就能向一群被\"俘虏\"的听众滔滔不绝地讲述你关于世界应该如何运转的高见。）在这种情况下，那些醉心于自我表演的人的闹剧把真正关心公司的股东越赶越远，会议质量年复一年地下降。",[14,1656,1657],{},"伯克希尔的年会是另外一码事。与会股东人数每年都在增长，但至今我们还没有遇到过一个愚蠢的提问或自我膨胀式的发言。我们收到的是各种各样深思熟虑的商业问题。由于年会就是提出这些问题的时间和场所，查理和我很乐意逐一解答，不管要花多长时间。（但在一年中的其他时间，我们无法回复书面或电话提出的问题；对一家拥有3,000名股东的公司来说，逐一回复实在太低效了。）年会上唯一不能谈的商业话题，是那些坦率回答可能会让公司付出真金白银代价的事情。我们在证券市场上的操作是主要的例子。",[14,1659,1660],{},"我们一向在年报里吹嘘一下我们的股东合伙人有多优秀。来参加年会你就知道为什么了。外地来的朋友应该安排去内布拉斯加家具店逛一逛。如果你买点东西，省下的钱远远够付旅费了，而且你一定会觉得不虚此行。",[14,1662,1663],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1665,1666],{},"董事长",[14,1668,1669],{},"1985年2月25日",[14,1671,1672,1676],{},[1673,1674,1675],"strong",{},"后续事项","：3月18日——本报告的文稿已送去排版一周之后、但尚未印刷出版之前——我们同意以每股172.50美元的价格购买大都会通讯公司 (Capital Cities Communications, Inc.) 300万股股份。我们的购买以大都会成功收购美国广播公司 (American Broadcasting Companies, Inc.) 为前提条件，将在那笔交易完成时一并交割。最早要到1985年底才能完成。我们对由汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy) 和丹·柏克 (Dan Burke) 领导的大都会管理团队的钦佩，已在此前多年的年报中多次表达。简而言之，他们无论在能力还是诚信方面都是顶尖的。明年的年报我们会详细介绍这项投资。",{"title":1678,"searchDepth":1679,"depth":1679,"links":1680},"",2,[],"致股东信",null,"1984年巴菲特致股东信，分析净资产增长放缓、批评无效资金配置及机构投资者行为","md",{},true,55,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1683},"1984 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","UNcVvcuZXPIHAB7k_kFZh6PIo9IV0QDupmL13PgOML8","buffett",[1696,1700,1704,1708,1711,1714,1717,1721,1724,1727,1731,1734,1737,1741,1744,1747,1751,1754,1757,1761,1764,1767,1771,1774,1777,1781,1784,1787,1791,1794,1797,1801,1804,1807,1811,1814,1817,1821,1824,1827,1831,1834,1837,1841,1844,1847,1851,1854,1857,1861,1864,1867,1871,1874,1877,1881,1884,1887,1891,1894,1897,1901,1904,1907,1911,1914,1917,1921,1924,1927,1931,1934,1937,1941,1944,1947,1951,1954,1957,1961,1964,1967,1971,1974,1977,1981,1984,1987,1991,1994,1997,2001,2004,2007,2011,2014,2017,2021,2024,2027,2031,2034,2038,2041,2045,2048,2052,2055,2059,2062,2066,2069,2073,2076,2080,2083,2087,2090,2094,2097,2101,2104,2108,2111,2115,2118,2122,2125,2129,2132,2136,2139,2143,2146,2150,2153,2157,2160,2164,2167,2171,2174,2175,2178,2182,2185,2189,2192,2196,2199,2203,2206,2210,2213,2217,2220,2224,2227,2231,2234,2238,2241,2245,2248,2252,2255,2259,2262,2266,2269,2273,2276,2280,2283,2287,2290,2294,2297,2301,2304,2308,2311,2315,2318,2322,2325,2329,2332,2336,2339,2343,2346,2350,2353,2357,2360,2364,2367,2371,2374,2378,2381,2385,2388,2392,2395,2399,2402,2406,2409,2413,2416,2420,2423,2427,2430,2434,2437,2441,2444,2448,2451,2455,2458,2462,2465,2469,2472,2476,2479,2483,2486,2490,2493,2497,2501,2505,2509,2513,2517,2521,2525,2529,2533,2537,2541,2545,2549,2553,2557,2561,2565,2569,2573,2577,2581,2585,2589,2593,2597,2601,2605,2609,2613,2617,2621,2625,2629,2633,2637,2641,2645,2649,2653,2657,2661,2665,2669,2673,2677,2681,2685,2689,2693],{"title":1697,"slug":1698,"category":1681,"order":1699},"1956 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1722,"slug":1723,"category":1703,"order":1720},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1725,"slug":1726,"category":1707,"order":1720},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1728,"slug":1729,"category":1681,"order":1730},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1732,"slug":1733,"category":1703,"order":1730},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1735,"slug":1736,"category":1707,"order":1730},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1738,"slug":1739,"category":1681,"order":1740},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1742,"slug":1743,"category":1703,"order":1740},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1745,"slug":1746,"category":1707,"order":1740},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1748,"slug":1749,"category":1681,"order":1750},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1752,"slug":1753,"category":1703,"order":1750},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1755,"slug":1756,"category":1707,"order":1750},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1758,"slug":1759,"category":1681,"order":1760},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1762,"slug":1763,"category":1703,"order":1760},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1765,"slug":1766,"category":1707,"order":1760},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1768,"slug":1769,"category":1681,"order":1770},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1772,"slug":1773,"category":1703,"order":1770},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1775,"slug":1776,"category":1707,"order":1770},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1778,"slug":1779,"category":1681,"order":1780},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1782,"slug":1783,"category":1703,"order":1780},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1785,"slug":1786,"category":1707,"order":1780},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1788,"slug":1789,"category":1681,"order":1790},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1792,"slug":1793,"category":1703,"order":1790},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1795,"slug":1796,"category":1707,"order":1790},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1798,"slug":1799,"category":1681,"order":1800},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1802,"slug":1803,"category":1703,"order":1800},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1805,"slug":1806,"category":1707,"order":1800},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1808,"slug":1809,"category":1681,"order":1810},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1812,"slug":1813,"category":1703,"order":1810},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1815,"slug":1816,"category":1707,"order":1810},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1818,"slug":1819,"category":1681,"order":1820},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1822,"slug":1823,"category":1703,"order":1820},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1825,"slug":1826,"category":1707,"order":1820},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1828,"slug":1829,"category":1681,"order":1830},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1832,"slug":1833,"category":1703,"order":1830},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1835,"slug":1836,"category":1707,"order":1830},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1838,"slug":1839,"category":1681,"order":1840},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1842,"slug":1843,"category":1703,"order":1840},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1845,"slug":1846,"category":1707,"order":1840},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1848,"slug":1849,"category":1681,"order":1850},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":1852,"slug":1853,"category":1703,"order":1850},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1855,"slug":1856,"category":1707,"order":1850},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1858,"slug":1859,"category":1681,"order":1860},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1862,"slug":1863,"category":1703,"order":1860},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1865,"slug":1866,"category":1707,"order":1860},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1868,"slug":1869,"category":1681,"order":1870},"1965 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1892,"slug":1893,"category":1703,"order":1890},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1895,"slug":1896,"category":1707,"order":1890},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1898,"slug":1899,"category":1681,"order":1900},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1902,"slug":1903,"category":1703,"order":1900},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1905,"slug":1906,"category":1707,"order":1900},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1908,"slug":1909,"category":1681,"order":1910},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1912,"slug":1913,"category":1703,"order":1910},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 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巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2095,"slug":2096,"category":1703,"order":2093},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2098,"slug":2099,"category":1681,"order":2100},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2102,"slug":2103,"category":1703,"order":2100},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2105,"slug":2106,"category":1681,"order":2107},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2109,"slug":2110,"category":1703,"order":2107},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2112,"slug":2113,"category":1681,"order":2114},"1975 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巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2246,"slug":2247,"category":1703,"order":2244},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2249,"slug":2250,"category":1681,"order":2251},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2253,"slug":2254,"category":1703,"order":2251},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2256,"slug":2257,"category":1681,"order":2258},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2260,"slug":2261,"category":1703,"order":2258},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2263,"slug":2264,"category":1681,"order":2265},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2267,"slug":2268,"category":1703,"order":2265},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2270,"slug":2271,"category":1681,"order":2272},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2274,"slug":2275,"category":1703,"order":2272},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2277,"slug":2278,"category":1681,"order":2279},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2281,"slug":2282,"category":1703,"order":2279},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2284,"slug":2285,"category":1681,"order":2286},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2288,"slug":2289,"category":1703,"order":2286},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2291,"slug":2292,"category":1681,"order":2293},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2295,"slug":2296,"category":1703,"order":2293},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2298,"slug":2299,"category":1681,"order":2300},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2302,"slug":2303,"category":1703,"order":2300},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2305,"slug":2306,"category":1681,"order":2307},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2309,"slug":2310,"category":1703,"order":2307},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2312,"slug":2313,"category":1681,"order":2314},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2316,"slug":2317,"category":1703,"order":2314},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2319,"slug":2320,"category":1681,"order":2321},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2323,"slug":2324,"category":1703,"order":2321},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2326,"slug":2327,"category":1681,"order":2328},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2330,"slug":2331,"category":1703,"order":2328},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2333,"slug":2334,"category":1681,"order":2335},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2337,"slug":2338,"category":1703,"order":2335},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2340,"slug":2341,"category":1681,"order":2342},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2344,"slug":2345,"category":1703,"order":2342},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2347,"slug":2348,"category":1681,"order":2349},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2351,"slug":2352,"category":1703,"order":2349},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2354,"slug":2355,"category":1681,"order":2356},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2358,"slug":2359,"category":1703,"order":2356},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2361,"slug":2362,"category":1681,"order":2363},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2365,"slug":2366,"category":1703,"order":2363},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2368,"slug":2369,"category":1681,"order":2370},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2372,"slug":2373,"category":1703,"order":2370},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2375,"slug":2376,"category":1681,"order":2377},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2379,"slug":2380,"category":1703,"order":2377},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2382,"slug":2383,"category":1681,"order":2384},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2386,"slug":2387,"category":1703,"order":2384},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2389,"slug":2390,"category":1681,"order":2391},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2393,"slug":2394,"category":1703,"order":2391},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2396,"slug":2397,"category":1681,"order":2398},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2400,"slug":2401,"category":1703,"order":2398},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2403,"slug":2404,"category":1681,"order":2405},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2407,"slug":2408,"category":1703,"order":2405},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2410,"slug":2411,"category":1681,"order":2412},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2414,"slug":2415,"category":1703,"order":2412},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2417,"slug":2418,"category":1681,"order":2419},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2421,"slug":2422,"category":1703,"order":2419},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2424,"slug":2425,"category":1681,"order":2426},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2428,"slug":2429,"category":1703,"order":2426},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2431,"slug":2432,"category":1681,"order":2433},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2435,"slug":2436,"category":1703,"order":2433},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2438,"slug":2439,"category":1681,"order":2440},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2442,"slug":2443,"category":1703,"order":2440},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2445,"slug":2446,"category":1681,"order":2447},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2449,"slug":2450,"category":1703,"order":2447},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2452,"slug":2453,"category":1681,"order":2454},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2456,"slug":2457,"category":1703,"order":2454},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2459,"slug":2460,"category":1681,"order":2461},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2463,"slug":2464,"category":1703,"order":2461},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2466,"slug":2467,"category":1681,"order":2468},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":2470,"slug":2471,"category":1703,"order":2468},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2473,"slug":2474,"category":1681,"order":2475},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2477,"slug":2478,"category":1703,"order":2475},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2480,"slug":2481,"category":1681,"order":2482},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2484,"slug":2485,"category":1703,"order":2482},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2487,"slug":2488,"category":1681,"order":2489},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":2491,"slug":2492,"category":1703,"order":2489},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":2494,"slug":2495,"category":1703,"order":2496},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":2498,"slug":2499,"category":1703,"order":2500},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":2502,"slug":2503,"category":1703,"order":2504},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":1703,"order":2508},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":2510,"slug":2511,"category":1703,"order":2512},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":2514,"slug":2515,"category":1703,"order":2516},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":2518,"slug":2519,"category":1703,"order":2520},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":2522,"slug":2523,"category":1703,"order":2524},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":2526,"slug":2527,"category":1703,"order":2528},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":2530,"slug":2531,"category":1703,"order":2532},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":2534,"slug":2535,"category":1703,"order":2536},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":2538,"slug":2539,"category":1703,"order":2540},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":2542,"slug":2543,"category":1703,"order":2544},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":2546,"slug":2547,"category":1703,"order":2548},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":2550,"slug":2551,"category":1703,"order":2552},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":2554,"slug":2555,"category":1703,"order":2556},"亚利桑那州立大学雷鸟全球领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安采访沃伦·巴菲特（2015年）","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":2558,"slug":2559,"category":1703,"order":2560},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":2562,"slug":2563,"category":1703,"order":2564},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":2566,"slug":2567,"category":1703,"order":2568},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":2570,"slug":2571,"category":1703,"order":2572},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 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