[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2697},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1161,"library-sidebar-dao":2163,"library-sidebar-models":2465},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1147,"date":1148,"description":1149,"extension":1150,"meta":1151,"navigation":1152,"order":1153,"path":1154,"seo":1155,"seoDescription":1149,"seoTitle":1156,"slug":1157,"stem":1158,"__hash__":1159,"_collection":1160},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1987 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1133},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,439,442,445,448,451,454,457,460,463,466,469,472,475,478,481,483,486,489,492,495,498,501,504,507,510,513,516,518,521,524,527,530,533,536,539,542,545,548,551,554,557,560,700,706,709,712,715,718,721,724,727,730,733,736,739,742,745,748,751,754,757,760,763,766,769,772,775,778,781,785,788,791,794,797,800,807,810,813,816,819,822,825,828,831,893,896,899,902,905,908,911,914,917,920,923,926,929,932,935,938,942,945,948,951,954,957,960,963,970,973,976,979,982,985,988,991,998,1001,1008,1011,1014,1017,1020,1023,1026,1028,1031,1034,1037,1040,1043,1046,1049,1052,1055,1058,1061,1064,1067,1070,1073,1076,1079,1082,1085,1088,1091,1094,1097,1100,1103,1106,1109,1112,1115,1118,1121,1124,1127,1130],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1987-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,21,22],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,24,25],{},"1987年，我们的净资产增加了4.64亿美元，增幅为19.5%。自现任管理层接手的23年以来，每股账面价值由19.46美元增长到2,477.47美元，年复合增长率约为23.1%。",[14,27,28],{},"真正重要的，当然是每股内在商业价值的增长率，而非账面价值。在许多情况下，一家公司的账面价值和内在价值之间几乎毫无关联。比方说，LTV和鲍德温联合公司（Baldwin-United）在宣布破产前夕的年度审计报告显示，账面价值分别为6.52亿美元和3.97亿美元。但反过来看，贝尔里奇石油公司（Belridge Oil）1979年以36亿美元的价格卖给了壳牌石油，而其账面价值不过区区1.77亿美元。",[14,30,31],{},"不过在伯克希尔，这两种价值的走势倒是相当接近，过去十年内在价值的增长率略微超过账面价值的增长率。令人高兴的是，这种好势头在1987年得以延续。",[14,33,34],{},"我们的内在价值对账面价值的溢价之所以扩大，原因很简单：我们拥有一批杰出的企业，而这些企业背后有着更为杰出的经理人。",[14,36,37],{},"你们完全有理由质疑后面这句话。毕竟，CEO们很少会告诉股东说公司是由一帮笨蛋在经营。正因为他们不愿意承认这一点，年度报告有时就会出现一些奇怪的现象。经常可以看到，CEO在致股东的信中花了好几页篇幅，详细描述公司那些惨不忍睹的经营业绩，然后话锋一转，在结尾深情款款地称赞管理团队是\"公司最宝贵的资产\"。这种说法有时会让人纳闷——那其他资产算什么呢？",[14,39,40],{},"不过在伯克希尔，我对旗下经理人的评价可以说是低调了的。要理解为什么，先请看第7页的数据，那里列出了我们七大非金融业务的收益（以历史成本会计为基础）：布法罗新闻报（Buffalo News）、菲希海默制服（Fechheimer）、柯比吸尘器（Kirby）、内布拉斯加家具店（Nebraska Furniture Mart）、斯科特费泽制造集团（Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group）、喜诗糖果（See's Candies）和世界图书公司（World Book）。1987年，这七家企业合计的息税前利润高达1.8亿美元。",[14,42,43],{},"这个数字本身并不能说明经济表现如何。要做出判断，我们必须知道产生这些收益到底动用了多少资本——包括债务和股本在内。在我们这七家公司中，债务扮演的角色微乎其微：1987年的净利息支出仅为200万美元。因此，这些企业使用股本资本所创造的税前收益为1.78亿美元。而这些股本——同样以历史成本计——仅为1.75亿美元。",[14,45,46],{},"如果把这七家企业当作一家公司来看，1987年的税后净利约为1亿美元——股本回报率高达57%左右。这样的比率你在别处很难见到，更别说是在杠杆极低的大型多元化公司了。这里有一个参照标准：《财富》杂志在1988年的投资者指南中报道，在500家最大工业企业和500家最大服务企业中，过去十年平均股本回报率超过30%的仅有6家。这1,000家企业中表现最好的是商业结算所公司（Commerce Clearing House），也不过40.2%。当然，伯克希尔从这七家企业实际获得的回报并没有那么高，因为当初收购时我们支付了相当的溢价。总体而言，这些业务在我们账面上的金额比其底层资产的历史会计价值高出约2.22亿美元。不过，评判这些经理人的表现，应该看他们用底层资产创造了多少回报；我们为一家企业支付多少钱，并不影响经理人手中可运用的资本。（同样的道理，如果你以六倍账面价值的价格买入商业结算所公司的股票成为股东，也不会改变这家公司的股本回报率。）",[14,48,49],{},"从上述数字可以得出三个重要结论。第一，这七家企业目前的内在价值远高于其历史账面价值，也远高于伯克希尔资产负债表上的账面金额。第二，由于经营这些业务所需的资本极少，它们可以在自身增长的同时，将几乎全部收益释放出来投入新的机会。第三，这些企业由真正非凡的经理人在管理。布卢姆金家族（the Blumkins）、海德曼家族（the Heldmans）、查克·哈金斯（Chuck Huggins）、斯坦·利普西（Stan Lipsey）和拉尔夫·谢伊（Ralph Schey），每一位都将卓越的才能、充沛的精力和正直的品格融为一体，创造出了杰出的财务成果。",[14,51,52],{},"正是因为这些原因，当初这些经理人加入时，我们的期望就已经很高了。然而在每一个案例中，实际结果都远远超出了我们的预期。我们得到的远多于我们应得的——但我们很乐意接受这种\"不公平\"。（我们认同杰克·班尼（Jack Benny）领取演技大奖时说的那句话：\"我不配得到这个奖——但话说回来，我也不配得关节炎啊。\"）",[14,54,55],{},"除了这\"七圣徒\"之外，我们还有另一项重大业务——保险，我同样认为其内在价值远高于账面净资产。不过，评估一家财产意外险公司的内在价值，是一件相当不精确的工作。这个行业波动很大，报告收益常常严重偏离实际，而最近的税法修订更将大大损害未来的盈利能力。尽管如此，我们喜欢这项业务，它几乎肯定会继续是我们最大的业务板块。在迈克·戈德堡（Mike Goldberg）的管理下，保险业务长期而言应该会给我们带来不错的回报。",[14,57,58],{},"有这样的经理人团队，我的搭档查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）和我在日常运营上实在没什么好插手的。事实上，平心而论，如果我们管得更多，成效可能反而会更差。我们没有公司会议，没有年度预算，也没有绩效考核（当然，各业务单元的经理人在自己的层面上经常使用这些管理工具）。说到底，我们能教布卢姆金家族怎么卖家具，还是教海德曼家族怎么做制服？",[14,60,61],{},"我们对旗下子公司最大的贡献就是适时给予掌声。但这绝不是不分青红皂白地廉价赞美，而是基于查理和我数十年来密切观察企业经营和管理行为所做出的真诚肯定。我们见过太多平庸的表现，所以真正遇到大师级的演出时，我们是由衷地珍惜。对于旗下经理人1987年的整体表现，唯一恰当的回应就是：持续的、震耳欲聋的掌声。",[10,63,64],{"id":64},"报告收益的来源",[14,66,67],{},"下表显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。表中商誉摊销及其他重大购买法会计调整并未计入各对应业务，而是汇总单独列示。这样做的目的，实际上是呈现这些业务在未被我们收购情况下的原始盈利状况。在1983年和1986年年报的附录中，我已经解释过为什么这种呈现方式对投资者和管理层而言比标准的通用会计准则（GAAP）逐项调整更为有用。当然，表中的净利润合计数与经审计财务报表上的GAAP数字完全一致。在第36-38页的分部数据和第40-44页的管理层讨论中，你们可以找到各业务的更多详细信息。在这些章节中，你们还会看到按GAAP基础编制的分部收益。我强烈建议大家阅读这些内容，同时也别错过查理·芒格写给韦斯科（Wesco）股东的那封信，从第45页开始，描述了该子公司旗下各项业务的情况。",[69,70,71,90],"table",{},[72,73,74],"thead",{},[75,76,77,80,83,85,88],"tr",{},[78,79],"th",{},[78,81,82],{},"税前收益",[78,84,82],{},[78,86,87],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[78,89,87],{},[91,92,93,109,122,135,152,169,186,203,220,237,254,271,288,305,320,337,354,371,388,405,422],"tbody",{},[75,94,95,99,102,105,107],{},[96,97,98],"td",{},"（千美元）",[96,100,101],{},"1987",[96,103,104],{},"1986",[96,106,101],{},[96,108,104],{},[75,110,111,114,116,118,120],{},[96,112,113],{},"经营收益：",[96,115],{},[96,117],{},[96,119],{},[96,121],{},[75,123,124,127,129,131,133],{},[96,125,126],{},"保险集团：",[96,128],{},[96,130],{},[96,132],{},[96,134],{},[75,136,137,140,143,146,149],{},[96,138,139],{},"承保收益",[96,141,142],{},"$ (55,429)",[96,144,145],{},"$ (55,844)",[96,147,148],{},"$ (20,696)",[96,150,151],{},"$ (29,864)",[75,153,154,157,160,163,166],{},[96,155,156],{},"净投资收益",[96,158,159],{},"152,483",[96,161,162],{},"107,143",[96,164,165],{},"136,658",[96,167,168],{},"96,440",[75,170,171,174,177,180,183],{},[96,172,173],{},"布法罗新闻报",[96,175,176],{},"39,410",[96,178,179],{},"34,736",[96,181,182],{},"21,304",[96,184,185],{},"16,918",[75,187,188,191,194,197,200],{},[96,189,190],{},"菲希海默制服（1986\u002F6\u002F3收购）",[96,192,193],{},"13,332",[96,195,196],{},"8,400",[96,198,199],{},"6,580",[96,201,202],{},"3,792",[75,204,205,208,211,214,217],{},[96,206,207],{},"柯比吸尘器",[96,209,210],{},"22,408",[96,212,213],{},"20,218",[96,215,216],{},"12,891",[96,218,219],{},"10,508",[75,221,222,225,228,231,234],{},[96,223,224],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[96,226,227],{},"16,837",[96,229,230],{},"17,685",[96,232,233],{},"7,554",[96,235,236],{},"7,192",[75,238,239,242,245,248,251],{},[96,240,241],{},"斯科特费泽制造集团",[96,243,244],{},"30,591",[96,246,247],{},"25,358",[96,249,250],{},"17,555",[96,252,253],{},"13,354",[75,255,256,259,262,265,268],{},[96,257,258],{},"喜诗糖果",[96,260,261],{},"31,693",[96,263,264],{},"30,347",[96,266,267],{},"17,363",[96,269,270],{},"15,176",[75,272,273,276,279,282,285],{},[96,274,275],{},"韦斯科金融（保险除外）",[96,277,278],{},"6,209",[96,280,281],{},"5,542",[96,283,284],{},"4,978",[96,286,287],{},"5,550",[75,289,290,293,296,299,302],{},[96,291,292],{},"世界图书公司",[96,294,295],{},"25,745",[96,297,298],{},"21,978",[96,300,301],{},"15,136",[96,303,304],{},"11,670",[75,306,307,310,313,316,318],{},[96,308,309],{},"商誉摊销",[96,311,312],{},"(2,862)",[96,314,315],{},"(2,555)",[96,317,312],{},[96,319,315],{},[75,321,322,325,328,331,334],{},[96,323,324],{},"购买法会计——其他调整",[96,326,327],{},"(5,546)",[96,329,330],{},"(10,033)",[96,332,333],{},"(6,544)",[96,335,336],{},"(11,031)",[75,338,339,342,345,348,351],{},[96,340,341],{},"利息费用及提前偿还罚金",[96,343,344],{},"(11,474)",[96,346,347],{},"(23,891)",[96,349,350],{},"(5,905)",[96,352,353],{},"(12,213)",[75,355,356,359,362,365,368],{},[96,357,358],{},"股东指定捐赠",[96,360,361],{},"(4,938)",[96,363,364],{},"(3,997)",[96,366,367],{},"(2,963)",[96,369,370],{},"(2,158)",[75,372,373,376,379,382,385],{},[96,374,375],{},"其他",[96,377,378],{},"22,460",[96,380,381],{},"20,770",[96,383,384],{},"13,696",[96,386,387],{},"8,685",[75,389,390,393,396,399,402],{},[96,391,392],{},"经营收益合计",[96,394,395],{},"280,919",[96,397,398],{},"195,857",[96,400,401],{},"214,745",[96,403,404],{},"131,464",[75,406,407,410,413,416,419],{},[96,408,409],{},"出售证券收益",[96,411,412],{},"27,319",[96,414,415],{},"216,242",[96,417,418],{},"19,807",[96,420,421],{},"150,897",[75,423,424,427,430,433,436],{},[96,425,426],{},"所有实体收益合计",[96,428,429],{},"$ 308,238",[96,431,432],{},"$ 412,099",[96,434,435],{},"$ 234,552",[96,437,438],{},"$ 282,361",[14,440,441],{},"吉普赛·罗斯·李（Gypsy Rose Lee）在她晚年的一次生日宴会上宣布：\"我还是拥有去年的一切，唯一的不同是全部矮了两英寸。\"如上表所示，1987年我们几乎所有业务都在以更振奋人心的方式又长了一岁。",[14,443,444],{},"这些业务实在没有太多新变化可以报告——而这是好事，不是坏事。剧烈的变动和出色的回报通常不会同时出现。当然，大多数投资者的想法恰恰相反。他们往往把最高的市盈率给了那些名头响亮、许诺翻天覆地变化的公司。这种美好的前景让投资者可以尽情幻想未来的丰厚利润，而不必面对眼前的经营现实。对这类爱做梦的投资者来说，随便一个陌生的约会对象都比隔壁的好姑娘有吸引力，不管后者有多出色。",[14,446,447],{},"然而经验告诉我们，最好的商业回报通常来自于那些今天做的事情和五年、十年前大致相同的公司。这并不是说管理者可以自满——企业总有机会改善服务、产品线和制造工艺等，显然应该抓住这些机会。但一家不断遭遇重大变化的企业，同样会面临许多犯重大错误的机会。而且，在永远剧烈变化的经济领域中，很难建立起堡垒般的特许经营权。而这种特许经营权，通常才是持续高回报的关键。",[14,449,450],{},"前面提到的《财富》杂志研究可以充分佐证我们的观点。在1977年至1986年间，1,000家公司中只有25家同时满足两个经济卓越的标准——十年平均股本回报率超过20%，且没有任何一年低于15%。这些商界超级明星同时也是股市超级明星：在这十年中，25家中有24家跑赢了标普500指数。",[14,452,453],{},"这些《财富》冠军在两个方面可能会让你感到意外。第一，以它们的偿债能力来看，大多数公司使用的杠杆非常低。真正优秀的企业通常不需要借钱。第二，除了一家所谓的\"高科技\"公司和少数几家制药企业外，其余公司所在的行业总体而言相当平凡。大多数公司销售的产品或提供的服务，与十年前基本没什么两样（当然现在的数量更大、价格更高，或者两者兼有）。这25家公司的记录证明：充分发挥已有的强大特许经营权，或者专注于单一的制胜主题，通常才是创造非凡经济效益的秘诀。",[14,455,456],{},"伯克希尔的经验也是如此。我们的经理人在相当平凡的事务上做出了非凡的成绩——靠的就是把平凡的事做到极致。他们保护各自企业的特许经营权，严格控制成本，在既有优势的基础上寻找新产品和新市场，从不旁骛。他们在业务细节上极度用心，而成果也有目共睹。",[14,458,459],{},"以下是各业务的近况：",[461,462,224],"h2",{"id":224},[14,464,465],{},"阿加莎·克里斯蒂（Agatha Christie）嫁给了一位考古学家。她说这是配偶最理想的职业：\"你越老，他对你越感兴趣。\"不过，真正应该对B夫人——罗丝·布卢姆金（Rose Blumkin）——感兴趣的是商学院的学生，而非考古系的。B夫人是内布拉斯加家具店（NFM）94岁的掌门人。",[14,467,468],{},"50年前，B夫人以500美元起家创业，如今NFM已是全美遥遥领先的最大家居用品商店。B夫人依然每天从开门干到打烊，一周工作七天，采购、销售、管理样样亲力亲为，把竞争对手甩得远远的。我看得很清楚，她正在蓄势待发，再给她五到十年，也许就能充分发挥全部潜力了。因此，我已说服董事会废除100岁强制退休的政策。（也是时候了：每多过一年，这条政策在我看来就更加荒唐。）",[14,470,471],{},"1987年NFM的净销售额为1.426亿美元，比1986年增长8%。全美找不到第二家这样的店，也找不到第二个像B夫人培养出来的这样的家族来传承事业：她的儿子路易（Louie），以及路易的三个儿子——罗恩（Ron）、艾文（Irv）和史蒂夫（Steve）——都继承了B夫人的商业直觉、正直品格和冲劲。他们分工协作，每个人单独都很强，合在一起更是远超个体之和。",[14,473,474],{},"布卢姆金家族出色的工作让我们这些股东受益匪浅，但受益更大的是NFM的客户。他们在1987年通过购买NFM的产品省下了大约3,000万美元——换句话说，如果到别处购买同样的商品，大概要多花这么多钱。",[14,476,477],{},"去年8月，我收到一封匿名信，读来颇有趣味：\"很遗憾看到伯克希尔第二季度获利下滑。告诉你一个挽回损失的好办法——去查一下NFM的产品定价。你会发现他们白白把10%到20%的利润让给了客户。1.4亿美元的销售额，那可是2,800万美元的利润啊。换谁都不会觉得这是小数目！去看看其他家具、地毯、电器和电视经销商的价格吧。把价格调回合理的利润水平对大家都好。谢谢。签名：一位竞争同业。\"",[14,479,480],{},"展望未来，NFM在B夫人的座右铭——\"价格公道实在，诚信经营\"——指引下，必将继续成长茁壮。",[461,482,173],{"id":173},[14,484,485],{},"在同等规模或更大的主导性报纸中，布法罗新闻报（Buffalo News）继续在两个重要指标上领跑全国：(1) 工作日和周日的渗透率（报纸主要市场区域内购买该报的家庭比例）；(2) \"新闻版面\"占比（报纸用于新闻内容的版面比例）。",[14,487,488],{},"一份报纸能同时在这两个指标上领先，绝非巧合：新闻内容越丰富，对读者的吸引力就越广泛，渗透率自然也就越高。当然，数量必须配以质量。这不仅意味着优秀的报道和文笔，还意味着新鲜感和关联性。一份报纸要成为读者不可或缺的东西，就必须及时告诉读者许多他们想知道、但不看报纸就要迟迟才会得知——甚至永远无从知晓——的事情。",[14,490,491],{},"在布法罗新闻报，我们每24小时推出七个版次，每次都大幅更新内容。举一个可能让你惊讶的小例子：我们每个版次都重新编排讣告版面，也就是说一天重排七次。每则新增的讣告会在接下来的六个版次中持续刊登，直到一个完整的出版周期结束。",[14,493,494],{},"当然，一份报纸必须深入报道国内和国际新闻。但同样重要的是，它要做到只有一份地方报纸才能做的事：及时而广泛地记录社区生活中那些对个人来说很重要、却不会被其他媒体报道的细节。要把这件事做好，需要非常广泛的新闻来源——而这意味着大量的版面空间，并加以合理运用。",[14,496,497],{},"1987年，我们的新闻版面占比一如既往地保持在50%左右。如果我们把它削减到更常见的40%，每年大约可以节省400万美元的新闻纸成本。我们对此毫无兴趣——即使未来因为某种原因利润率大幅萎缩也一样。",[14,499,500],{},"查理和我不相信那种弹性预算制度，比如\"如果营业收入达到Y，间接费用可以是X；如果营业收入降到Y减5%，间接费用就必须削减\"之类的逻辑。难道仅仅因为某个年度或季度利润下滑，我们就应该削减布法罗新闻报的新闻版面，或者降低喜诗糖果的产品与服务品质？反过来说，仅仅因为钱赚得太多，我们就应该去雇一个经济学家、一个企业战略顾问、搞一个品牌形象广告活动，或者做其他对伯克希尔毫无益处的事情？",[14,502,503],{},"这对我们来说毫无道理。赚多了就增加不必要的人手和开支，赚少了就砍掉关键的人员和业务——我们既理解不了前者，也理解不了后者。这种忽上忽下的做法既不人道，也不明智。我们的目标是在任何时候都做对伯克希尔的客户和员工有意义的事情，永远不添加不必要的东西。（\"那公司的商务飞机又是怎么回事？\"你不客气地问道。嗯，有时候一个人总得偶尔超越自己的原则一回。）",[14,505,506],{},"虽然布法罗新闻报的营收自1984年以来增长不多，但在发行人斯坦·利普西（Stan Lipsey）出色的管理下，利润却实现了可观的增长。好几年来，我一直错误地预测该报的利润率会下滑。今年我不会让大家失望了：1988年利润率毫无疑问会收窄，利润也可能下滑。新闻纸成本的飞涨是主要原因。",[461,508,509],{"id":509},"菲希海默制服",[14,511,512],{},"菲希海默兄弟公司（Fechheimer Bros. Company）是我们旗下另一个家族企业——和布卢姆金家族一样，又是一个了不起的家族。海德曼家族（the Heldmans）三代人几十年来持续不断地提升这家制服制造与分销公司的销售和利润。在伯克希尔取得控股权的1986年，利润创下历史新高。之后海德曼家族丝毫没有放慢脚步，1987年收益大幅增长，1988年的前景同样看好。",[14,514,515],{},"制服这门生意本身并没有什么神奇之处，唯一神奇的是海德曼家族。鲍勃（Bob）、乔治（George）、加里（Gary）、罗杰（Roger）和弗雷德（Fred）对这个行业了如指掌，而且乐在其中。能和他们合作，是我们的幸运。",[461,517,258],{"id":258},[14,519,520],{},"查克·哈金斯（Chuck Huggins）持续在喜诗糖果创造新纪录，自从16年前我们买下这家公司并请他掌舵的那天起就一直如此。1987年，糖果销量创下近2,500万磅的新高。而且连续第二年，以磅数计算的同店销售额基本持平。你可能觉得这没什么了不起，但实际上这已是相当大的改善——因为在此之前的连续六年，同店销售额一直在下滑。",[14,522,523],{},"虽然1986年的圣诞旺季表现特别强劲，1987年圣诞季的同店对比数据却更好。这使得季节性因素在喜诗糖果变得愈发极端。1987年，大约85%的利润是在12月单月创造的。",[14,525,526],{},"逛糖果店是一件开心的事，但对大多数店主来说就不那么开心了。据我们了解，近年来除了喜诗以外，几乎没有哪家糖果店赚到了像样的利润。所以很明显，Chuck的成绩不是靠行业顺风吹出来的，而是独一无二的、扎扎实实的表现。",[14,528,529],{},"取得这样的成就，当然需要优秀的产品——这个我们有。但它还需要对客户发自内心的关爱。Chuck是百分之百以客户为导向的，而他的态度感染了喜诗整个组织上上下下。",[14,531,532],{},"举一个Chuck身体力行的例子：在喜诗，我们通常会定期添加新口味并淘汰一些旧品种，以维持大约一百个品种的产品线。去年春天，我们选了14种口味准备淘汰。结果其中有两种被客户深深怀念，他们毫不客气地让我们知道了他们的想法：\"愿喜诗所有参与这个可恶决定的人受到天谴……\"、\"愿你们新出的松露巧克力在运输途中融化，愿它们在人们嘴里变酸，愿你们成本上升、利润下降……\"、\"我们正在研究申请法院强制令，要求你们恢复供应……\"画面感出来了吧。我们总共收到了好几百封这样的信。",[14,534,535],{},"Chuck不仅恢复了那两种口味，还把这次失误变成了一次商机。每一位来信的客户都收到了完整而坦诚的回复。Chuck在信中写道：\"幸运的是，当我做出糟糕的决定时，好事往往会因此而发生……\"信中还附上了一张特别的礼品券。",[14,537,538],{},"过去两年，喜诗的提价幅度很小。1988年我们的提价幅度稍大一些，但仍然温和。到目前为止，销售表现疲软，今年喜诗要想提升利润恐怕比较困难。",[461,540,541],{"id":541},"斯科特费泽",[14,543,544],{},"世界图书公司（World Book）、柯比吸尘器（Kirby）和斯科特费泽制造集团（Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group）全部由拉尔夫·谢伊（Ralph Schey）管理。我们何其幸运能有这样的安排。去年我告诉各位，斯科特费泽1986年的表现远超查理和我当初收购时的预期。1987年的成绩更胜一筹——税前收益增长了10%，而平均使用资本却大幅下降。",[14,546,547],{},"Ralph同时掌管19项业务的能力实在令人叹为观止，他还吸引了一批优秀的经理人来协助运营。我们巴不得再多找几项业务放到Ralph麾下。",[14,549,550],{},"斯科特费泽旗下业务太多，无法一一详述。这里就挑我们的最爱给大家更新一下：1987年底，世界图书公司推出了自1962年以来改版幅度最大的版本。彩色照片从14,000张增加到24,000张，超过6,000篇文章经过修订，新增了840位撰稿人。查理和我向各位及你们的家人郑重推荐这套产品，以及世界图书公司面向幼儿的产品——《儿童手工》（Childcraft）和\"幼儿早教世界\"（Early World of Learning）。",[14,552,553],{},"1987年，世界图书在美国的销量连续第五年增长。国际销量和利润也大幅提升。斯科特费泽集团整体前景看好，世界图书公司尤其如此。",[10,555,556],{"id":556},"保险业务营运",[14,558,559],{},"下表是保险行业主要指标的最新数据：",[69,561,562,581],{},[72,563,564],{},[75,565,566,569,572,575,578],{},[78,567,568],{},"年度",[78,570,571],{},"保费收入年增长率（%）",[78,573,574],{},"法定综合比率（扣除保户股利后）",[78,576,577],{},"损失赔付年增长率（%）",[78,579,580],{},"通货膨胀率——GNP平减指数（%）",[91,582,583,600,617,633,650,667,684],{},[75,584,585,588,591,594,597],{},[96,586,587],{},"1981",[96,589,590],{},"3.8",[96,592,593],{},"106.0",[96,595,596],{},"6.5",[96,598,599],{},"9.6",[75,601,602,605,608,611,614],{},[96,603,604],{},"1982",[96,606,607],{},"4.4",[96,609,610],{},"109.8",[96,612,613],{},"8.4",[96,615,616],{},"6.4",[75,618,619,622,625,628,631],{},[96,620,621],{},"1983",[96,623,624],{},"4.6",[96,626,627],{},"112.0",[96,629,630],{},"6.8",[96,632,590],{},[75,634,635,638,641,644,647],{},[96,636,637],{},"1984",[96,639,640],{},"9.2",[96,642,643],{},"117.9",[96,645,646],{},"16.9",[96,648,649],{},"3.7",[75,651,652,655,658,661,664],{},[96,653,654],{},"1985",[96,656,657],{},"22.1",[96,659,660],{},"116.3",[96,662,663],{},"16.1",[96,665,666],{},"3.2",[75,668,669,672,675,678,681],{},[96,670,671],{},"1986（修正）",[96,673,674],{},"22.2",[96,676,677],{},"108.0",[96,679,680],{},"13.5",[96,682,683],{},"2.6",[75,685,686,689,692,695,697],{},[96,687,688],{},"1987（估计）",[96,690,691],{},"8.7",[96,693,694],{},"104.7",[96,696,630],{},[96,698,699],{},"3.0",[14,701,702],{},[703,704,705],"em",{},"来源：Best保险管理报告",[14,707,708],{},"综合比率代表保险总成本（发生的损失加上费用）与保费收入的比率：低于100表示承保盈利，高于100则表示承保亏损。如果将保险公司利用保户资金（即\"浮存金\"）所赚取的投资收益考虑在内，综合比率在107至111之间大致可以实现损益平衡——这还不包括保险公司自有资金产生的收益。",[14,710,711],{},"保险行业的数学，正如上表所概括的，并不复杂。当行业保费收入的年增长率仅在4%到5%的水平缓慢爬行时，承保损失必然会攀升。这不是因为车祸、火灾、暴风等意外事件发生得更频繁了，近年来也不是一般通货膨胀造成的。真正的罪魁祸首是社会和司法膨胀——上法庭的成本简直是暴涨。一方面是因为判决赔偿金额节节攀升，另一方面是法官和陪审团倾向于将保险单的承保范围扩大到保险公司签发保单时根本没有预想到的程度。看不到这两种趋势有任何减缓的迹象，我们继续相信，即使一般通货膨胀率维持在较低水平，保险行业的保费收入每年至少需要增长10%左右，才能勉强维持盈利。",[14,713,714],{},"1985-1987年间保费收入的强劲增长几乎可以保证行业在1987年的承保表现会相当不错，事实也的确如此——这是一个丰收年。但好消息随着季度的推移而变味：根据Best的估计，各季度同比保费增长率分别为12.9%、11.1%、5.7%和5.6%。1988年的保费增长率肯定会远低于我们所说的10%\"均衡\"水平。很显然，派对已经结束了。",[14,716,717],{},"然而，利润不会马上下滑。这个行业有一个滞后效应：因为大多数保单是一年期的，保险价格的上涨或下跌要在生效后许多个月才会完全反映到收益上。所以打个比方，派对结束、酒吧关门的时候，你还可以把手里那杯喝完。如果不遭遇重大自然灾害，我们预计1988年行业综合比率会小幅上升，随后几年则会更大幅度地攀升。",[14,719,720],{},"保险行业被一系列令人沮丧的经济特征所困扰，长期前景堪忧：数以百计的竞争者、极低的进入门槛，以及无法实现任何有意义差异化的产品。在这种类似大宗商品的行业中，只有极低成本的运营商或者在受保护的细分市场（通常规模很小）中经营的公司，才能维持较高的盈利水平。",[14,722,723],{},"不过，当市场出现供给短缺时，即使是大宗商品行业也能繁荣发展。保险行业曾一度享受过这样的气候，但现在已经过去了。资本主义最讽刺的一点是，大宗商品行业的大多数经理人都痛恨短缺——尽管那是他们唯一能赚到好回报的环境。每当短缺出现时，典型的经理人就迫不及待地想要扩充产能，把那个正在往自己身上淋金雨的窟窿给堵上。这正是1985-1987年间保险业经理人的真实写照，再次验证了迪斯雷利（Disraeli）的名言：\"我们从历史中得到的唯一教训就是我们从来不从历史中吸取教训。\"",[14,725,726],{},"在伯克希尔，我们用两种方式来摆脱行业的大宗商品经济特性。第一，我们凭借远超同业的财务实力来实现产品差异化。不过，这种实力的用处是有限的。在个人险领域，它毫无意义：买汽车险或房屋险的人即使投保的公司倒闭了（这种情况还真不少），也能获得理赔。在商业险领域，它往往也没什么意义：行情好的时候，许多大企业投保人和他们的经纪人对保险公司在更恶劣环境下的履约能力漫不经心——而那种恶劣环境可能在五年后某个复杂理赔案终于解决时才会出现。（眼不见心不烦——到时候可能就是钱包空空了。）",[14,728,729],{},"不过，投保人偶尔也会想起本杰明·富兰克林（Ben Franklin）说过的话——空麻袋立不直——从而认识到应该只向财务实力持久稳固的保险公司购买保单。这时候，我们就拥有了巨大的竞争优势。当一个投保人认真考虑五到十年后保险公司能否轻松支付1,000万美元的理赔金，当他把承保条件恶化、金融市场低迷、再保险公司违约同时发生的可能性也纳入考量时，他会发现自己能够信赖的保险公司寥寥无几。而在这寥寥数家之中，伯克希尔必定名列前茅。",[14,731,732],{},"我们的第二种差异化方式是：对保费数量完全无所谓。在1989年，如果条件合适，我们很乐意承接五倍于1988年的业务量——但如果只有五分之一也无所谓。我们当然希望条件允许我们做大量业务。但市场价格不在我们掌控之内，如果价格不理想，我们就干脆少做一点。同业中没有任何一家大型保险公司能做到如此自律。",[14,734,735],{},"保险行业普遍存在而其他行业少有的三个条件，赋予了我们这种灵活性。第一，市场份额不是盈利能力的重要决定因素：在这个行业，不像报业或零售业，生存下来的不一定是最大的那个。第二，在许多保险领域，包括我们经营的大多数险种，销售渠道不是专有的，进入很容易：今年业务量少，不妨碍明年做大量业务。第三，闲置产能——在保险业主要是人力——不会造成难以承受的成本。不像印刷或钢铁等行业，我们可以大部分时间以四分之一的速度运行，照样享受长期的繁荣。",[14,737,738],{},"我们坚持以风险定价而非随行就市的策略，因为这符合股东利益。但我们也很高兴地告诉大家，这同样有益于社会。这一策略意味着，只要我们认为价格合理，我们随时准备承接几乎任何类型的巨额财产意外险保单。许多其他保险公司则采取忽进忽出的策略。当它们因为亏损加剧、资本不足或其他原因而\"退出\"市场时，我们随时在场补位。当然，当同业争先恐后地抢着做业务时，我们也在——只不过那时候我们的报价往往高于市场价格。实际上，我们为保险买家和经纪人提供了一个大型的备用产能蓄水池。",[14,740,741],{},"1987年中期的一个故事可以说明我们定价策略的一些后果：全美最大的家族保险经纪公司之一，由一位伯克希尔的老股东领导。此人手上有许多大型风险业务可以交给我们的纽约办事处来承保。自然，他会竭力为客户争取最好的条件。同样自然地，当1987年保险市场大幅软化时，他发现其他保险公司的报价比我们低得多。他的反应是：第一，把所有业务转到别处；第二，加仓买入更多伯克希尔的股票。他说，如果伯克希尔也加入降价竞争，他倒是会把保险业务给我们做，但那样的话他就要把伯克希尔的股票卖光了。",[14,743,744],{},"伯克希尔1987年的承保表现相当出色，部分得益于前面讨论的滞后效应。我们的综合比率（以法定基础计算，不含结构化结算和金融再保险）为105%。虽然这个数字比1986年的103%略逊一筹，但1987年我们的盈利能力实质上大幅提升，因为我们运用了多得多的浮存金。这一趋势将继续对我们有利：在未来几年里，我们的浮存金与保费收入之比将显著上升。因此，即使我们预计综合比率会上升，伯克希尔1988年和1989年的保险利润仍很可能会改善。",[14,746,747],{},"过去几年，我们的保险业务在非财务方面也取得了重要进展。保险业务的负责人迈克·戈德堡（Mike Goldberg）组建了一支专业团队，专门承接大型风险和特殊保障。他的团队现在已经做好了充分准备，随时迎接那些偶尔出现的重大商机。",[14,749,750],{},"我们的损失准备金变动情况（详见第41-42页），今年看起来比以前好一些。但我们承保了大量的\"长尾\"业务——也就是那些理赔往往需要许多年才能解决的保单。比如产品责任险、董事及高管责任险等。对于这种业务组合来说，一年的准备金变动实在说明不了什么。",[14,752,753],{},"大家应该对保险公司报告的收益数字时刻保持警惕（包括我们自己的——这一点过去我们已经不幸地向你们证明过了）。过去十年的记录表明，许多知名保险公司报告给股东的收益，最后被证明是大错特错的。在大多数情况下，这些错误完全是无心的：我们变幻莫测的司法体系，使得即使是最尽职的保险公司也无法准确判断长尾业务的最终理赔成本。",[14,755,756],{},"尽管如此，会计师每年还是会对管理层提供的数字出具审计意见，并毫无保留地声称这些数字\"公允地反映了\"客户的财务状况。会计师使用这种令人安心的措辞，尽管他们从长期而痛苦的经验中深知，这些经过认证的数字与该期间的真实收益可能天差地别。尽管有这样的错误历史，投资者还是理所当然地依赖会计师的意见。毕竟，一句\"该财务报表公允地反映了\"对于非会计专业的人来说，听起来可不像是模棱两可的话。",[14,758,759],{},"审计师标准意见书的措辞定于明年修改。新的措辞会有所改进，但远远不足以描述财产意外险审计的局限性。如果真要如实反映事实的话，我们认为给财产意外险公司股东的标准审计意见书应该这样写：\"关于所列示的损失准备金和损失调整费用负债，我们依赖了管理层的估计，而这些估计对本报告所列的收益和财务状况有重大影响。对于这些数字的准确性，我们无法发表任何意见。在这一重要保留条件下，我们认为……等等。\"",[14,761,762],{},"如果有人因为严重失实的财务报表而提起诉讼（这种事确实发生过），会计师在法庭上反正也会说类似的话。那他们为什么不从一开始就坦白地说明自己的角色和局限性呢？",[14,764,765],{},"我们要强调的是，我们并不是怪罪会计师无法准确评估损失准备金（以及因此影响到的收益数字）。我们只是怪罪他们不肯公开承认自己做不到这一点。",[14,767,768],{},"从种种迹象来看，准备金提列中不断出现的无心之失，伴随着许多蓄意为之的错误。各种骗子利用的正是两点：第一，会计师没有能力评估准备金数字；第二，会计师却愿意自信满满地为这些数字背书，好像他们真有这个专业能力似的。靠着这种方式，他们大发横财，受害的是投资大众。这种把戏在未来还会继续上演。哪里可以用一支笔凭空创造\"收益\"，骗子们就会聚到哪里。对他们来说，长尾保险简直就是天堂。我们建议的审计措辞至少可以让投资者对这些掠食者多一份警觉。",[14,770,771],{},"保险公司缴纳的税款——在1986年《税收改革法案》通过后大幅增加（尽管有一定延迟）——在1987年底又进一步恶化了。我们在去年的报告中详述了1986年的税法变更。我们还评论了一个讽刺的现象：这部法案大幅提升了保险公司1987年的报告收益，却在实质上削弱了其长期盈利能力和商业价值。在伯克希尔，这种暂时有利的\"新起点\"调整使1987年的收益虚增了820万美元。",[14,773,774],{},"在我们看来，1986年的法案是过去十年来影响保险业的最重要经济事件。1987年的法案进一步将公司间股利免税扣除比率从80%降至70%，自1988年1月1日起生效——但纳税人持有被投资公司20%以上股权的情况除外。",[14,776,777],{},"通过企业中介（合格投资公司除外）间接持有股票或债券的投资者，与直接持有相同证券的投资者相比，一直处于不利地位。1986年税法大幅加重了这种间接持有的惩罚——1987年的法案在某种程度上也是如此——尤其是当中介是保险公司的时候。我们没有任何办法来抵消这一增加的税负。这意味着，同样的税前投资回报，转化为我们股东的税后收益将比以前差得多。",[14,779,780],{},"总的来说，我们预期保险业务会表现良好，尽管成绩肯定不会一帆风顺。短期展望是保费收入大幅下降，但收益有望合理改善。在我们与消防员基金保险公司（Fireman's Fund）的配额合同于1989年到期后，保费收入的下降将加速。在某个时间点——可能至少还要几年——我们也许会迎来一些重大机遇，届时我们的准备将比1985年充分得多。",[10,782,784],{"id":783},"有价证券永恒的持股","有价证券——永恒的持股",[14,786,787],{},"每当查理和我为伯克希尔旗下的保险公司购买普通股时（套利交易除外，后面会单独讨论），我们的态度就好像是在收购一家私营企业的全部股权一样。我们考察的是这家企业的经济前景、负责经营的管理层，以及我们必须支付的价格。我们从不设定卖出的时间或价格。事实上，只要预期企业的内在价值能以令人满意的速度增长，我们愿意无限期地持有一只股票。在做投资时，我们把自己定位为企业分析师——而非市场分析师、宏观经济分析师，甚至也不是证券分析师。",[14,789,790],{},"我们的方法使得一个活跃的交易市场对我们很有用，因为市场不时会抛出令人垂涎的机会。但活跃的市场绝非必需品：即使我们持有的证券长期停止交易，我们也不会感到困扰——就像世界图书公司和菲希海默也没有每日报价一样。归根结底，我们的经济命运取决于我们所拥有的企业的经济命运，无论我们持有的是全部还是部分股权。",[14,792,793],{},"本杰明·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham），我的老师也是我的朋友，很久以前描述过一种面对市场波动的心态，我认为这是对投资成功最有帮助的一番话。他说，你可以把股票市场的报价想象成来自一位异常殷勤的先生——市场先生（Mr. Market）——的出价，他是你在一家私营企业中的合伙人。每天，市场先生都会如期而至，给你报一个价格，要么买下你的股份，要么把他的股份卖给你。",[14,795,796],{},"即使你们共同拥有的企业具有非常稳定的经济特征，市场先生的报价却绝不会稳定。可悲的是，这位可怜的家伙有着无可救药的情绪问题。有时候他兴高采烈，眼中只看到企业有利的一面。这种心情下，他会报一个很高的买卖价格，因为他害怕你抢走他手中的股份，让他错失即将到来的收益。另一些时候，他则情绪低落，满眼看到的都是企业和整个世界面临的困难。这时他会报出一个非常低的价格，因为他怕你会把你的股份甩给他。",[14,798,799],{},"市场先生还有一个讨人喜欢的特点：他不在乎被人冷落。如果他今天的报价你不感兴趣，明天他还会带着新的报价登门。交易完全由你说了算。在这种条件下，他的行为越躁狂，对你就越有利。",[14,801,802,803,806],{},"但是，就像舞会上的灰姑娘一样，你必须牢记一个警告，否则一切都会变回南瓜和老鼠：市场先生是来为你服务的，不是来引导你的。对你有用的是他的钱包，而不是他的智慧。如果某天他以一种格外愚蠢的姿态出现，你可以选择无视他，也可以好好利用他，但如果你受了他的影响，那就是灾难。事实上，如果你不能确定自己对企业价值的判断比市场先生高明得多，你就不该参与这个游戏。就像打牌时说的那样：\"如果你上桌30分钟还没看出谁是傻瓜，那",[703,804,805],{},"你","就是那个傻瓜。\"",[14,808,809],{},"格雷厄姆的市场先生寓言，在当今的投资世界里也许显得有些过时——毕竟大多数专业人士和学者满口都是有效市场、动态对冲和贝塔系数。他们对这些东西感兴趣是可以理解的，因为笼罩着神秘面纱的技术对于投资建议的推销者来说，显然是有价值的。毕竟，有哪位巫医能靠\"吃两片阿司匹林\"这种简单建议就声名鹊起、财源广进的？",[14,811,812],{},"然而，这些股市秘术对于投资建议的消费者来说就是另一回事了。在我看来，投资成功不是靠神秘公式、计算机程序或股票与市场价格波动所发出的信号来实现的。真正成功的投资者，靠的是卓越的商业判断力，同时有能力将自己的思维和行为与市场上那些极具传染性的情绪隔绝开来。以我个人的经验而言，要做到这种隔绝，最有效的方法就是将格雷厄姆的市场先生理念牢记在心。",[14,814,815],{},"追随格雷厄姆的教诲，查理和我让我们持有的股票用其经营成果——而不是每天甚至每年的价格波动——来告诉我们投资是否成功。市场可能会暂时忽视一家企业的成功，但最终必会予以认可。正如格雷厄姆所说：\"短期来看，市场是一台投票机；长期来看，它是一台称重机。\"而且，一家企业的成功被市场认可的速度其实并不那么重要——只要其内在价值在以令人满意的速度增长就行。事实上，被市场发现得晚一些反而是好事：这给了我们更多机会以便宜的价格买进好东西。",[14,817,818],{},"当然，有时候市场也会将一家企业的估值抬高到超出其基本面所支撑的水平。在这种情况下，我们就会卖出持股。有时候，即使一家公司的估值合理甚至略微低估，我们也会卖出，因为我们需要资金去投资一个更被低估的标的，或者一个我们认为更加了解的企业。",[14,820,821],{},"不过我们需要强调的是，我们不会仅仅因为股价上涨了或者我们已经持有了很长时间就卖出。（在华尔街的种种格言中，最愚蠢的莫过于\"赚到钱的人不会破产。\"）只要所持企业预期的股本回报率令人满意、管理层能干且正直、市场没有过度高估，我们非常乐意无限期地持有一只股票。",[14,823,824],{},"但是，我们的保险公司持有三只普通股，即使市场价格远远高于合理水平，我们也不会卖出。实际上，我们把这些投资和我们成功的全资子公司完全等同看待——它们是伯克希尔永久的组成部分，而不是一旦市场先生报出足够高的价格就可以处置的商品。不过我要加一个附带条件：这些股票是由我们的保险公司持有的，如果万不得已，我们会出售部分持股来支付巨额保险赔付。但是我们会尽一切努力，让这种情况永远不要发生。",[14,826,827],{},"查理和我这种\"坚定持有\"的决心，显然融合了个人和财务两方面的考量。在一些人看来，我们的态度可能非常另类。（查理和我长期以来一直遵循大卫·奥格威（David Ogilvy）的建议：\"趁年轻时就发展你的怪癖。这样等你老了，人们就不会觉得你是老糊涂了。\"）在近年来以交易为中心的华尔街上，我们的姿态肯定显得格格不入：在那个竞技场上，无论是公司还是股票，都不过是交易的筹码而已。",[14,829,830],{},"不过，我们的态度完全契合我们的性格和我们想要的生活方式。丘吉尔曾经说过：\"你塑造你的房子，然后房子塑造你。\"我们清楚地知道自己想被塑造成什么样子。正因如此，我们宁可在与自己衷心喜欢和敬佩的人交往中获得X的回报，也不愿为了110%的X而去和无趣或令人不快的人打交道。而且，我们大概永远找不到比下面三家公司——我们的永恒持股——中的一些核心人物更让我们喜欢和敬佩的人了：",[69,832,833,849],{},[72,834,835],{},[75,836,837,840,843,846],{},[78,838,839],{},"股份数量",[78,841,842],{},"公司",[78,844,845],{},"成本（千美元）",[78,847,848],{},"市值（千美元）",[91,850,851,865,879],{},[75,852,853,856,859,862],{},[96,854,855],{},"3,000,000",[96,857,858],{},"大都会\u002FABC（Capital Cities\u002FABC, Inc.）",[96,860,861],{},"$ 517,500",[96,863,864],{},"$ 1,035,000",[75,866,867,870,873,876],{},[96,868,869],{},"6,850,000",[96,871,872],{},"盖可保险（GEICO Corporation）",[96,874,875],{},"$ 45,713",[96,877,878],{},"$ 756,925",[75,880,881,884,887,890],{},[96,882,883],{},"1,727,765",[96,885,886],{},"华盛顿邮报（The Washington Post Company）",[96,888,889],{},"$ 9,731",[96,891,892],{},"$ 323,092",[14,894,895],{},"买下一家具有控制权的企业与买入像上述这些有价证券，在我们看来并没有什么本质区别。在每一种情况下，我们都力图买入具有良好长期经济前景的企业。我们的目标是以合理的价格买到杰出的企业，而不是以便宜的价格买到平庸的企业。查理和我发现，用上等丝绸做丝绸钱包，是我们力所能及的最好结果；拿猪耳朵的话，我们只会失败。",[14,897,898],{},"（必须指出的是，本人虽然一向以学得快著称，却花了整整20年才搞明白买好企业有多重要。在那之前，我一直在寻找\"便宜货\"——不幸的是还真被我找到了一些。我得到的惩罚是：在短线农具制造商、三流百货商店和新英格兰纺织厂的经济学上好好上了一课。）",[14,900,901],{},"当然，查理和我也可能看走眼一家企业的基本面。一旦发生这种情况，不管持有的是全资子公司还是有价证券，我们都会遇到麻烦，只不过后者脱身要容易得多。（确实，企业是有可能被误读的：想想那位被派到美国来采访安德鲁·卡内基（Andrew Carnegie）的欧洲记者，他给编辑发了封电报：\"天哪，你绝对想象不到经营图书馆能赚这么多钱。\"）",[14,903,904],{},"无论是收购整家公司还是购买部分股权，我们都力求不仅买到好企业，还要买到由高品质、有才华且讨人喜欢的人来经营的企业。如果我们看错了人，全资控股有一个优势——我们有权做出改变。不过在实践中，这个优势有些虚幻：更换管理层，就像离婚一样，是痛苦的、耗时的、而且要看运气。无论如何，在我们三项\"有价证券但永久持有\"的投资中，这一点根本不成问题：有汤姆·墨菲（Tom Murphy）和丹·伯克（Dan Burke）在大都会\u002FABC，比尔·斯奈德（Bill Snyder）和路易·辛普森（Lou Simpson）在盖可保险，凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆（Kay Graham）和迪克·西蒙斯（Dick Simmons）在华盛顿邮报，我们实在想不出还有比这更好的组合了。",[14,906,907],{},"我要补充说明，控制一家公司有两个主要优势。第一，当我们控制一家公司时，我们可以进行资本配置，而对于部分股权投资，我们在这方面通常没有什么话语权。这一点可能非常重要，因为许多公司的CEO并不擅长资本配置。这并不奇怪：大多数老板之所以能爬到高位，是因为他们在营销、生产、工程、行政管理或者——有时候——公司政治等领域出类拔萃。",[14,909,910],{},"一旦成为CEO，他们就面临全新的职责。他们必须做出资本配置的决策——这是一项他们可能从未接触过的关键工作，而且远非容易掌握。打一个夸张点的比方，这就好像是一位天赋异禀的音乐家，最后的归宿不是在卡内基音乐厅演出，而是被任命为美联储主席。",[14,912,913],{},"CEO缺乏资本配置能力可不是一件小事：如果一家公司每年将相当于净资产10%的收益留存在公司里，那么十年之后，这位CEO要负责调配的资金将超过公司全部营运资本的60%。",[14,915,916],{},"有些CEO意识到自己在资本配置方面的不足（当然不是所有人都会承认），往往会转向下属、管理顾问或投资银行寻求帮助。查理和我经常观察这种\"帮助\"的后果。总的来说，我们觉得它不但没能解决问题，反而使问题更加严重了。",[14,918,919],{},"最终，大量不明智的资本配置决策在美国企业界反复上演。（这就是你经常听到\"企业重组\"的原因。）不过伯克希尔倒算幸运。在我们主要的非控股投资中，资本大体上得到了良好的运用，有些甚至堪称卓越。",[14,921,922],{},"控制一家公司相对于持有有价证券的第二个优势与税收有关。伯克希尔作为公司持股方，持有部分股权时要承担一些显著的税收成本，而当我们的持股比例达到80%或以上时则不存在这种情况。这种税收劣势由来已久，但过去一年的税法修订使其进一步加剧。结果是，同样的商业成果，如果来自80%以上控股的公司，为伯克希尔创造的财务收益可能比来自少数股权投资高出50%之多。",[14,924,925],{},"不过，持有有价证券的劣势有时可以被一个巨大的优势所抵消：偶尔，股票市场会让我们以极其荒谬的低价买到卓越企业的少数股权——远低于通过协议谈判获得控制权时需要支付的价格。例如，我们在1973年以每股5.63美元买入华盛顿邮报的股票，1987年该公司的税后每股经营收益为10.30美元。同样，我们在1976年、1979年和1980年以平均每股6.67美元的价格买入盖可保险的股票，去年每股税后经营收益为9.01美元。在这样的案例中，市场先生真是一位极其慷慨的好朋友。",[14,927,928],{},"这里存在一个有趣的会计矛盾。从上表可以看到，我们在这三家公司的市值超过20亿美元，但1987年它们为伯克希尔贡献的报告税后收益只有区区1,100万美元。",[14,930,931],{},"会计准则规定，我们只能将这些公司分配给我们的股利计入收益——这不过是象征性的数字——而不能把我们在这些公司实际收益中所占的份额计入，1987年后者的金额远超1亿美元。另一方面，会计准则又规定，这三项持股因为是保险公司所持有，在我们的资产负债表上必须以当前市场价格入账。结果就是：通用会计准则允许我们在净资产中反映我们所部分持有的企业的最新内在价值，却不允许我们在损益表中反映这些企业的真实盈利能力。",[14,933,934],{},"在我们的全资控股企业中，情况恰恰相反。在这里，我们可以在损益表中充分反映其收益，但无论一家企业自收购以来价值增长了多少，我们也永远不能在资产负债表上调整其资产价值。",[14,936,937],{},"面对这种会计上的精神分裂症，我们的应对之道是无视通用会计准则的数字，只专注于我们的控股企业和非控股企业的未来盈利能力。采用这种方法，我们建立起自己对商业价值的判断，独立于会计账面上控股公司的投资成本，也独立于有时愚蠢的市场对我们部分持股公司给出的市值。我们希望在未来年份以合理的——如果能以不合理的高速度增长就更好了——速度提升这种商业价值。",[10,939,941],{"id":940},"有价证券其他","有价证券——其他",[14,943,944],{},"除了我们的三项永恒持股外，我们的保险公司还持有大量有价证券。在选择时，我们可以从五大类别中挑选：(1) 长期普通股投资；(2) 中期固定收益证券；(3) 长期固定收益证券；(4) 短期现金等价物；(5) 短期套利交易。",[14,946,947],{},"对于这五个类别，我们没有特别的偏好。我们只是不断地在其中寻找以\"数学期望值\"衡量的最高税后回报，同时始终将自己限定在我们认为自己能够理解的投资机会上。我们的标准与短期报告收益的最大化无关；我们的目标是最终净资产的最大化。",[461,949,950],{"id":950},"普通股",[14,952,953],{},"先来看看普通股。1987年股票市场热闹非凡，最终却没有什么净变动：道琼斯指数全年仅上涨2.3%。大家都知道，这个微小的涨幅经历了怎样的过山车行情。市场先生在10月之前一路狂飙，然后突然遭遇了一次大面积的痉挛。",[14,955,956],{},"我们要\"感谢\"那些\"专业\"投资者——掌管着数以十亿计资金的人——制造了这场大部分的动荡。他们不去研究企业未来几年的发展前景，许多声名显赫的基金经理如今关注的是其他基金经理未来几天会怎么做。对他们来说，股票不过是游戏中的棋子，就像大富翁游戏里的顶针和熨斗一样。",[14,958,959],{},"他们这种态度发展到极致的一个例子就是\"投资组合保险\"——1986-1987年间许多顶级投资顾问所推崇的一种资金管理策略。这种策略说白了就是小投机者的止损指令换了一个花哨的名字：当股票投资组合或其对应的指数期货价格下跌时，就必须卖出越来越多的仓位。这个策略不管其他任何因素：只要下跌到一定幅度，就自动触发巨量卖单。根据《布雷迪报告》（Brady Report），1987年10月中旬，有高达600亿到900亿美元的股票处于这种一触即发的状态。",[14,961,962],{},"如果你一直以为投资顾问是被雇来做投资的，那你对这种手法肯定会感到困惑。一个理性的农场主买下一块农场后，会命令他的房产经纪人在隔壁的农场每次以更低价格成交时就把自己的农场卖掉一部分吗？或者，你会因为某天早上9:30有一栋类似的房子以比前一天低的价格卖出，就在9:31把你的房子卖给任何出价的人吗？",[14,964,965,966,969],{},"然而，这正是投资组合保险要求一个退休基金或大学在持有福特或通用电气部分股权时应该做的事情。按照这种理论的说法，这些公司的估值越低，就越应该大力卖出。而且，按照\"合乎逻辑的\"推论，一旦价格大幅反弹，这种方法又命令这些机构把它们买回来——",[703,967,968],{},"我可不是在编故事","。想到有这么庞大的资金掌握在奉行这种爱丽丝梦游仙境式策略的基金经理手中，股票市场偶尔出现反常的表现又有什么好奇怪的呢？",[14,971,972],{},"然而，许多评论家在观察近期事件后得出了一个错误的结论：他们喜欢说，如今市场被大户的不理性行为所主导，小投资者根本没有机会。这个结论大错特错：这样的市场对任何投资者来说都是理想的——无论资金大小——只要他坚守自己的投资原则。那些手握巨额资金的基金经理的非理性投机所造成的波动，反而会给真正的投资者提供更多做出明智投资决策的机会。只有当他因为财务或心理压力而被迫在不恰当的时机卖出时，这种波动才会伤害到他。",[14,974,975],{},"在伯克希尔，过去几年我们在股票市场上几乎找不到什么可做的。10月的股市大跌中，有几只股票跌到了我们感兴趣的价位，但还来不及大量买入，它们就已经反弹了。1987年底，除了永恒持股和套利头寸之外，我们没有任何重大的普通股投资（即超过5,000万美元的）。不过你们可以放心，市场先生终将再次给我们机会——这是确定的——届时，我们会有意愿也有能力参与其中。",[461,977,978],{"id":978},"中期固定收益证券",[14,980,981],{},"与此同时，我们的主要资金停泊地是中期免税债券，它的有限优点我在去年的年报中已经解释过。虽然1987年我们有买有卖，但整体头寸变化不大，维持在约9亿美元的水平。我们持有的大部分债券享有1986年《税收改革法案》的\"祖父条款\"保护，这意味着它们是完全免税的。但保险公司目前新购入的债券则不享受此待遇。",[14,983,984],{},"作为短期现金等价物的替代品，我们的中期免税债券——到目前为止——表现良好。它们为我们贡献了可观的额外收益，目前的价值也略高于我们的成本。不过，无论它们的市场价格如何，只要出现更好的投资机会，我们随时准备将它们处置掉。",[461,986,987],{"id":987},"长期固定收益证券",[14,989,990],{},"我们对长期债券一如既往地保持回避态度（我们对中期债券没有同样的排斥，也许这是一个严重的错误）。债券的价值不会超过它所计价的货币，而过去一年——乃至过去十年——我们看到的一切，都没有让我们对美元的长期前景感到乐观。",[14,992,993,994,997],{},"我们巨大的贸易逆差正在导致各种形式的\"支票\"——美国政府和企业债券、银行存款等——以惊人的速度在外国人手中堆积。我们的政府在财政问题上不知不觉地采用了田纳西·威廉斯《欲望号街车》（",[703,995,996],{},"A Streetcar Named Desire","）中布兰奇·杜波依斯（Blanche DuBois）的态度，她说过：\"我总是仰赖陌生人的善意。\"当然在这个情况下，\"陌生人\"依靠的是我们这些支票的信用——尽管不断贬值的美元已经让这笔交易对他们来说代价不菲了。",[14,999,1000],{},"外国人对我们的信任也许是错付的。当未偿付的支票数量增长到足够庞大，而发行方又可以单方面决定其购买力的时候，通过制造通货膨胀来稀释其价值的压力几乎无法抗拒。对一个债务国政府来说，通货膨胀这件武器在经济上就相当于氢弹，这也是为什么极少有国家被允许让以本国货币计价的债务泛滥全球。我们过去在财政信用方面还算不错的记录使得我们突破了这一限制，但这种宽容可能反而会加剧——而非缓解——我们最终走向通胀的压力。一旦我们屈服于这种压力，受害的就不仅仅是持有美国债权的外国人了，我们所有人都难逃一劫。",[14,1002,1003,1004,1007],{},"当然，美国可能会在净债务人地位失控之前采取措施遏制贸易逆差。（在这方面，美元贬值会有所帮助，尽管它不幸地也会在其他方面带来伤害。）然而，在考验国家意志力的关键时刻，我们政府的态度很可能和它一贯的做法一样——就像《乱世佳人》（",[703,1005,1006],{},"Gone with the Wind","）中的斯嘉丽·奥哈拉（Scarlett O'Hara）说的：\"明天再想吧。\"而拖延面对财政问题，几乎不可避免地会带来通胀后果。",[14,1009,1010],{},"这些后果发生的时间和范围都是无法预测的。但无法量化或确定一种风险的时间节点，并不意味着我们可以忽视它的存在。虽然我们承认自己可能判断有误，目前的利率水平或许足以补偿通胀风险，但我们对长期债券仍然保持整体上的戒惧。",[14,1012,1013],{},"不过，如果我们认为在某个特定证券上拥有显著优势，我们愿意将适量资金投入这一类别。这解释了我们为什么持有华盛顿公用电力供应系统（Washington Public Power Supply Systems）#1、#2和#3期债券，相关情况已在1984年年报中讨论过。1987年我们进一步增持了WPPSS的头寸。年底时，我们持有的这类债券摊余成本为2.4亿美元，市值为3.16亿美元，每年为我们带来3,400万美元的免税利息收入。",[461,1015,1016],{"id":1016},"短期套利交易",[14,1018,1019],{},"去年我们在套利方面继续取得不错的成绩，尽管——或者也许正因为——我们的操作规模非常有限。我们每年只参与少数几笔套利交易，并且限定自己只做已公开宣布的大型交易。我们不参与那些企业掠夺者试图将目标公司\"搅入局中\"的情况。",[14,1021,1022],{},"我们从事机会型套利已有几十年的经验，到目前为止成果相当不错。虽然从没精确计算过，但我相信我们在套利投资上的税前年均回报率至少有25%。1987年我确信我们做得比这个数字还要好。但必须强调的是，只要遭遇一两次严重的失误——就像1987年底许多套利操作所经历的那样——就可能使整体数据面目全非。",[14,1024,1025],{},"1987年底，我们唯一超过5,000万美元的套利头寸是持有1,096,200股安杰利斯公司（Allegis）的股票，成本为7,600万美元，市值为7,800万美元。",[461,1027,375],{"id":375},[14,1029,1030],{},"年底我们还有另外两项大额持仓，不太适合归入上述五个类别中的任何一个。一项是德士古公司（Texaco, Inc.）的各类短期债券，全部是在该公司申请破产后买入的。如果不是我们旗下保险公司拥有异常强大的资本实力，买入违约债券对我们来说是不合适的。但以德士古申请破产后的市场价格来看，我们认为这些债券是目前能找到的最具吸引力的债券投资标的。",[14,1032,1033],{},"以宾州石油公司（Pennzoil）诉讼案最坏情况来考虑，我们认为这些债券的价值至少和我们支付的价格差不多。而如果达成合理的和解——这看起来是很有可能的——我们预期债券的价值会高出不少。年底时，我们的德士古债券账面价值为1.04亿美元，市值为1.19亿美元。",[14,1035,1036],{},"到目前为止，我们在1987年最大——也最广为人知——的投资，是以7亿美元购入所罗门公司（Salomon Inc）9%的优先股。这批优先股在三年后可按每股38美元的价格转换为所罗门普通股，如果不转换，将从1995年10月31日起的五年内按比例赎回。从大多数角度来看，这笔投资属于中期固定收益证券类别。此外，我们还拥有一个有趣的转股选择权。",[14,1038,1039],{},"当然，对于投资银行业的方向和未来盈利能力，我们并没有什么特殊的洞见。就其行业本质而言，投资银行业的经济前景远不如我们其他主要投资所在行业那样可预测。正是这种不可预测性，使得我们选择以可转换优先股的形式来参与。",[14,1041,1042],{},"不过，我们对所罗门公司CEO约翰·古夫兰（John Gutfreund）的能力和品格倒是很有信心。查理和我都很喜欢、敬佩并信任约翰。我们最早在1976年认识他，当时他在盖可保险濒临破产的脱困过程中发挥了关键作用。此后好几次，我们目睹约翰引导客户放弃那些不明智的交易——尽管客户明显想要做那些交易——即使他的建议让所罗门拿不到顾问费，而迎合客户则能赚到一大笔。这种以服务为先的行为在华尔街远非理所当然。",[14,1044,1045],{},"正如查理在第50页所解释的原因，年底时我们将所罗门的投资价值定在面值的98%，比我们的成本低了1,400万美元。不过，我们相信一家领先的、高品质的融资和做市业务有相当的可能性取得良好的平均股本回报率。如果确实如此，我们的转股权最终将证明是有价值的。",[14,1047,1048],{},"关于我们的有价证券投资，再补充两点。第一，照例给大家一个提醒：自年底以来，我们的持仓已经发生了变化，今后还将继续变化，恕不另行通知。",[14,1050,1051],{},"第二点与此相关：1987年，和前些年一样，媒体不时猜测我们买卖各种证券的情况。这些报道有时是真的，有时半真半假，有时完全子虚乌有。有趣的是，媒体的规模和声誉与报道的准确性之间毫无相关性。一家全国性大杂志大张旗鼓地刊登了一条完全错误的传闻；另一家主流出版物将一笔套利交易说成了长期投资，严重误导读者。（我之所以不点名，是遵循一条古老的忠告：不要和成桶买墨水的人吵架。）",[14,1053,1054],{},"大家应该了解，我们绝不会对任何传闻做出任何评论，无论其真假。如果我们否认不实的报道却拒绝对真实的报道置评，那实际上就等于对所有报道都做了表态。",[14,1056,1057],{},"在一个大型投资创意既稀缺又宝贵的世界里，除了法律要求之外，我们没有兴趣告诉潜在的竞争对手我们在做什么。我们当然也不指望别人告诉我们他们的投资想法。同样，我们也不会指望一家媒体公司披露它正在私下推进的收购消息，或者一位记者告诉同行他正在追踪的独家新闻和使用的信息源。",[14,1059,1060],{},"当朋友或熟人告诉我说他们正在买入X公司的股票——因为有报道（错误地）说伯克希尔在买入——我感到很不自在。不过我也不会去纠正他们。如果他们想参与伯克希尔实际在买的东西，随时可以购买伯克希尔的股票。但也许这太简单了。我估计，他们通常觉得买那些热门话题中的股票更刺激。至于那种策略是否更赚钱，就是另一回事了。",[10,1062,1063],{"id":1063},"融资",[14,1065,1066],{},"年后不久，伯克希尔发行了两期债券，总计2.5亿美元。两期均于2018年到期，并将从1999年开始通过偿债基金按比例赎回。包含发行费用在内，我们的总体利息成本略高于10%。投资银行是所罗门，他们提供了优质的服务。",[14,1068,1069],{},"尽管我们对通货膨胀持悲观看法，但我们对举债的胃口相当有限。可以确定的是，如果伯克希尔将负债与企业价值之比提高到更高但仍属常规的水平，股本回报率很可能会提升。更有可能的是，即使遭遇自1930年代初以来最恶劣的经济环境，我们也能从容应对这样的负债比率。",[14,1071,1072],{},"但我们不希望仅仅是\"大概\"能够履行义务，我们要的是\"确定\"能够。因此，无论是在举债还是在所有其他事务上，我们坚持的政策是：在极端恶劣的条件下取得可接受的长期结果，而不是在正常条件下追求最优结果。",[14,1074,1075],{},"好的商业决策或投资决策最终会产生相当满意的经济成果，无需杠杆的助力。因此，我们认为，为了一些相对不重要的额外回报而将重要的东西（包括保户和员工的福祉这些无辜旁观者的利益）置于风险之中，是既愚蠢又不当的。这种观点不是随着年龄增长或日子好过了才形成的：我们对债务的看法从来没有变过。",[14,1077,1078],{},"不过，我们并不恐惧借贷。（我们远没有到认为\"世上最糟的事莫过于借钱\"的地步。）我们愿意借入一个我们认为——在最坏情况下——不会威胁到伯克希尔安危的金额。在分析这个限度时，我们可以审视自身的几大重要优势，这些优势在重大经济困难来临时会让我们立于不败之地：伯克希尔的收益来自众多多元化且根基深厚的业务；这些业务通常不需要大量资本投入；我们现有的负债结构良好；而且我们持有大量流动资产。显然，我们完全可以承受比目前更高的负债比率。",[14,1080,1081],{},"我们的举债策略还有一个方面值得说明：不像商界的许多人，我们更倾向于未雨绸缪地筹资，而非临渴掘井式地应对。一家公司若能同时管好资产负债表的两端，就能取得最好的财务成果。这意味着在资产端追求尽可能高的回报率，在负债端争取尽可能低的资金成本。如果两端的最佳行动时机恰好重合，那当然最理想不过了。但理性告诉我们，实际情况很可能恰恰相反：资金紧张时负债成本上升，却也创造出最好的收购机会；而资金宽松时，资产会被竞价推到天价。我们的结论是：负债端的行动有时应该独立于资产端的行动。",[14,1083,1084],{},"当然，何为\"紧\"、何为\"松\"，在任何特定时点都远非清晰。我们没有预测利率的能力——本着我们一贯的开放心态——我们也不相信其他任何人有这个能力。因此，我们只是在条件看起来不算太苛刻时借钱，然后期望之后能找到明智的扩张或收购机会——而这些机会，正如我们说过的，往往在债务市场明显恶劣的时候才会冒出来。我们的基本原则是：如果你想猎捕那种罕见而移动迅速的大象，就应该随时带着一把上了膛的枪。",[14,1086,1087],{},"我们\"先备资金、后找目标\"的策略几乎总会影响短期收益。比如，我们目前用以10%成本筹集的2.5亿美元只能赚到大约6.5%的收益，这个利差每周让我们损失约16万美元。这点负利差对我们来说无关紧要，也不会促使我们去勉强做收购或者追逐收益更高的短期工具。如果在未来五年左右能找到合适的\"大象\"，这一切等待都是值得的。",[10,1089,1090],{"id":1090},"其他事项",[14,1092,1093],{},"我们希望继续收购与现有企业类似的公司，在这方面我们需要一些帮助。如果你知道有公司符合以下条件，请打电话给我——最好是写信。",[14,1095,1096],{},"以下是我们的标准：",[14,1098,1099],{},"(1) 具有一定的规模（税后净利润至少达到1,000万美元），",[14,1101,1102],{},"(2) 表现出持续稳定的盈利能力（未来的美好预测对我们没有吸引力，\"困境反转\"类的公司同样如此），",[14,1104,1105],{},"(3) 企业在很少或没有负债的情况下取得了良好的股本回报率，",[14,1107,1108],{},"(4) 具备现成的管理团队（我们提供不了管理人才），",[14,1110,1111],{},"(5) 简单的业务（如果技术含量太高，我们搞不懂），",[14,1113,1114],{},"(6) 有一个确定的报价（我们不想在价格未知的情况下浪费双方的时间，哪怕只是初步的交谈）。",[14,1116,1117],{},"我们不会进行敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密，并且会非常迅速地给出是否感兴趣的答复——通常在五分钟之内。我们倾向于现金交易，但如果我们获得的内在价值与我们付出的一样多，也会考虑发行股票。我们欢迎潜在的卖方向与我们过去有过交易的人咨询了解。对于合适的企业——以及合适的人——我们能提供一个好的归宿。",[14,1119,1120],{},"另一方面，我们经常收到一些完全不符合标准的收购提案：初创企业、困境反转案、拍卖式出售，以及经纪人最爱说的\"你们见一面肯定能谈成\"。这些对我们没有丝毫的吸引力。",[14,1122,1123],{},"除了上述整体收购企业的兴趣之外，我们也有兴趣通过协商方式购买大额但不具控制权的股份，类似于我们在大都会\u002FABC和所罗门的持股。我们对购买可转换优先股作为长期投资尤其感兴趣，就像我们在所罗门所做的那样。",[14,1125,1126],{},"大约97.2%的合格股份参与了伯克希尔1987年的股东指定捐赠计划。通过该计划捐出的款项为490万美元，共有2,050家慈善机构受益。",[14,1128,1129],{},"最近一项调查显示，约50%的美国大公司会匹配董事的个人慈善捐赠（有时按三比一的比例放大）。实际上，这些代表股东利益的人把公司的资金捐给了他们自己偏爱的慈善机构，却从来不会征求股东对慈善捐赠的偏好。（我很好奇，如果换过来让股东从董事的口袋里掏钱捐给股东们看中的慈善机构，这些董事会作何感想。）当甲从乙手里拿钱给丙，如果甲是立法者，这个过程叫做征税；如果甲是公司的高管或董事，这个过程就被称为慈善。我们继续认为，除了那些明显对公司有直接益处的捐赠之外，捐赠应该反映股东的慈善偏好，而不是高管和董事的偏好。",[14,1131,1132],{},"我们敦促新股东仔细阅读第54-55页上关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。如果你希望参与未来的计划，我们强烈建议你立即确认股份登记在实际所有者的名下，而不是\"街名\"或代持人的名下。1988年9月30日之前未完成登记的股份将无法参与1988年的计划。",{"title":1134,"searchDepth":1135,"depth":1135,"links":1136},"",2,[1137,1138,1139,1140,1141,1142,1143,1144,1145,1146],{"id":224,"depth":1135,"text":224},{"id":173,"depth":1135,"text":173},{"id":509,"depth":1135,"text":509},{"id":258,"depth":1135,"text":258},{"id":541,"depth":1135,"text":541},{"id":950,"depth":1135,"text":950},{"id":978,"depth":1135,"text":978},{"id":987,"depth":1135,"text":987},{"id":1016,"depth":1135,"text":1016},{"id":375,"depth":1135,"text":375},"致股东信",null,"1987年巴菲特致股东信，讨论股灾影响、抛售不理想股票及布法罗晚报投资损失","md",{},true,58,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1149},"1987 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","V9GLAiISZMUL8rJcvsyZN8x69xoH-iTTFa9uZWhH3Ck","buffett",[1162,1166,1170,1174,1177,1180,1183,1187,1190,1193,1197,1200,1203,1207,1210,1213,1217,1220,1223,1227,1230,1233,1237,1240,1243,1247,1250,1253,1257,1260,1263,1267,1270,1273,1277,1280,1283,1287,1290,1293,1297,1300,1303,1307,1310,1313,1317,1320,1323,1327,1330,1333,1337,1340,1343,1347,1350,1353,1357,1360,1363,1367,1370,1373,1377,1380,1383,1387,1390,1393,1397,1400,1403,1407,1410,1413,1417,1420,1423,1427,1430,1433,1437,1440,1443,1447,1450,1453,1457,1460,1463,1467,1470,1473,1477,1480,1483,1487,1490,1493,1497,1500,1504,1507,1511,1514,1518,1521,1525,1528,1532,1535,1539,1542,1546,1549,1553,1556,1560,1563,1567,1570,1574,1577,1581,1584,1588,1591,1595,1598,1602,1605,1609,1612,1616,1619,1623,1626,1630,1633,1637,1640,1644,1647,1651,1654,1658,1661,1662,1665,1669,1672,1676,1679,1683,1686,1690,1693,1697,1700,1704,1707,1711,1714,1718,1721,1725,1728,1732,1735,1739,1742,1746,1749,1753,1756,1760,1763,1767,1770,1774,1777,1781,1784,1788,1791,1795,1798,1802,1805,1809,1812,1816,1819,1823,1826,1830,1833,1837,1840,1844,1847,1851,1854,1858,1861,1865,1868,1872,1875,1879,1882,1886,1889,1893,1896,1900,1903,1907,1910,1914,1917,1921,1924,1928,1931,1935,1938,1942,1945,1949,1952,1956,1959,1963,1967,1971,1975,1979,1983,1987,1991,1995,1999,2003,2007,2011,2015,2019,2023,2027,2031,2035,2039,2043,2047,2051,2055,2059,2063,2067,2071,2075,2079,2083,2087,2091,2095,2099,2103,2107,2111,2115,2119,2123,2127,2131,2135,2139,2143,2147,2151,2155,2159],{"title":1163,"slug":1164,"category":1147,"order":1165},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1167,"slug":1168,"category":1169,"order":1165},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1171,"slug":1172,"category":1173,"order":1165},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1175,"slug":1176,"category":1147,"order":1135},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1178,"slug":1179,"category":1169,"order":1135},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1181,"slug":1182,"category":1173,"order":1135},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1184,"slug":1185,"category":1147,"order":1186},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1188,"slug":1189,"category":1169,"order":1186},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1191,"slug":1192,"category":1173,"order":1186},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1194,"slug":1195,"category":1147,"order":1196},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1198,"slug":1199,"category":1169,"order":1196},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1201,"slug":1202,"category":1173,"order":1196},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":1147,"order":1206},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1208,"slug":1209,"category":1169,"order":1206},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1211,"slug":1212,"category":1173,"order":1206},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1214,"slug":1215,"category":1147,"order":1216},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1218,"slug":1219,"category":1169,"order":1216},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1221,"slug":1222,"category":1173,"order":1216},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1224,"slug":1225,"category":1147,"order":1226},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1228,"slug":1229,"category":1169,"order":1226},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1231,"slug":1232,"category":1173,"order":1226},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1234,"slug":1235,"category":1147,"order":1236},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1238,"slug":1239,"category":1169,"order":1236},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1241,"slug":1242,"category":1173,"order":1236},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1244,"slug":1245,"category":1147,"order":1246},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1248,"slug":1249,"category":1169,"order":1246},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1251,"slug":1252,"category":1173,"order":1246},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1254,"slug":1255,"category":1147,"order":1256},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1258,"slug":1259,"category":1169,"order":1256},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1261,"slug":1262,"category":1173,"order":1256},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1264,"slug":1265,"category":1147,"order":1266},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1268,"slug":1269,"category":1169,"order":1266},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1271,"slug":1272,"category":1173,"order":1266},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1274,"slug":1275,"category":1147,"order":1276},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1278,"slug":1279,"category":1169,"order":1276},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1281,"slug":1282,"category":1173,"order":1276},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1284,"slug":1285,"category":1147,"order":1286},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1288,"slug":1289,"category":1169,"order":1286},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1291,"slug":1292,"category":1173,"order":1286},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1294,"slug":1295,"category":1147,"order":1296},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1298,"slug":1299,"category":1169,"order":1296},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1301,"slug":1302,"category":1173,"order":1296},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1304,"slug":1305,"category":1147,"order":1306},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1308,"slug":1309,"category":1169,"order":1306},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1311,"slug":1312,"category":1173,"order":1306},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1314,"slug":1315,"category":1147,"order":1316},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":1318,"slug":1319,"category":1169,"order":1316},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1321,"slug":1322,"category":1173,"order":1316},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1324,"slug":1325,"category":1147,"order":1326},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1328,"slug":1329,"category":1169,"order":1326},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1331,"slug":1332,"category":1173,"order":1326},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1334,"slug":1335,"category":1147,"order":1336},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1338,"slug":1339,"category":1169,"order":1336},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1341,"slug":1342,"category":1173,"order":1336},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1344,"slug":1345,"category":1147,"order":1346},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":1348,"slug":1349,"category":1169,"order":1346},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1351,"slug":1352,"category":1173,"order":1346},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1354,"slug":1355,"category":1147,"order":1356},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1358,"slug":1359,"category":1169,"order":1356},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1361,"slug":1362,"category":1173,"order":1356},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1364,"slug":1365,"category":1147,"order":1366},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1368,"slug":1369,"category":1169,"order":1366},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1371,"slug":1372,"category":1173,"order":1366},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1374,"slug":1375,"category":1147,"order":1376},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1378,"slug":1379,"category":1169,"order":1376},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1381,"slug":1382,"category":1173,"order":1376},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1384,"slug":1385,"category":1147,"order":1386},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1388,"slug":1389,"category":1169,"order":1386},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1391,"slug":1392,"category":1173,"order":1386},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1394,"slug":1395,"category":1147,"order":1396},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1398,"slug":1399,"category":1169,"order":1396},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1401,"slug":1402,"category":1173,"order":1396},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1404,"slug":1405,"category":1147,"order":1406},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1408,"slug":1409,"category":1169,"order":1406},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1411,"slug":1412,"category":1173,"order":1406},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1414,"slug":1415,"category":1147,"order":1416},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1418,"slug":1419,"category":1169,"order":1416},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1421,"slug":1422,"category":1173,"order":1416},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1424,"slug":1425,"category":1147,"order":1426},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1428,"slug":1429,"category":1169,"order":1426},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1431,"slug":1432,"category":1173,"order":1426},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1434,"slug":1435,"category":1147,"order":1436},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1438,"slug":1439,"category":1169,"order":1436},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1441,"slug":1442,"category":1173,"order":1436},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1444,"slug":1445,"category":1147,"order":1446},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1448,"slug":1449,"category":1169,"order":1446},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1451,"slug":1452,"category":1173,"order":1446},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1454,"slug":1455,"category":1147,"order":1456},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1458,"slug":1459,"category":1169,"order":1456},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1461,"slug":1462,"category":1173,"order":1456},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1464,"slug":1465,"category":1147,"order":1466},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1468,"slug":1469,"category":1169,"order":1466},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1471,"slug":1472,"category":1173,"order":1466},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1474,"slug":1475,"category":1147,"order":1476},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1478,"slug":1479,"category":1169,"order":1476},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1481,"slug":1482,"category":1173,"order":1476},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1484,"slug":1485,"category":1147,"order":1486},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1488,"slug":1489,"category":1169,"order":1486},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1491,"slug":1492,"category":1173,"order":1486},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1494,"slug":1495,"category":1147,"order":1496},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1498,"slug":1499,"category":1169,"order":1496},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1501,"slug":1502,"category":1147,"order":1503},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1505,"slug":1506,"category":1169,"order":1503},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1508,"slug":1509,"category":1147,"order":1510},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1512,"slug":1513,"category":1169,"order":1510},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1515,"slug":1516,"category":1147,"order":1517},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1519,"slug":1520,"category":1169,"order":1517},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1522,"slug":1523,"category":1147,"order":1524},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1526,"slug":1527,"category":1169,"order":1524},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1529,"slug":1530,"category":1147,"order":1531},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1533,"slug":1534,"category":1169,"order":1531},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1536,"slug":1537,"category":1147,"order":1538},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1540,"slug":1541,"category":1169,"order":1538},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1543,"slug":1544,"category":1147,"order":1545},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1547,"slug":1548,"category":1169,"order":1545},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1550,"slug":1551,"category":1147,"order":1552},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1554,"slug":1555,"category":1169,"order":1552},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1557,"slug":1558,"category":1147,"order":1559},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1561,"slug":1562,"category":1169,"order":1559},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1564,"slug":1565,"category":1147,"order":1566},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1568,"slug":1569,"category":1169,"order":1566},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1571,"slug":1572,"category":1147,"order":1573},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1575,"slug":1576,"category":1169,"order":1573},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1578,"slug":1579,"category":1147,"order":1580},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1582,"slug":1583,"category":1169,"order":1580},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1585,"slug":1586,"category":1147,"order":1587},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1589,"slug":1590,"category":1169,"order":1587},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1592,"slug":1593,"category":1147,"order":1594},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1596,"slug":1597,"category":1169,"order":1594},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1599,"slug":1600,"category":1147,"order":1601},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1603,"slug":1604,"category":1169,"order":1601},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1606,"slug":1607,"category":1147,"order":1608},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1610,"slug":1611,"category":1169,"order":1608},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1613,"slug":1614,"category":1147,"order":1615},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1617,"slug":1618,"category":1169,"order":1615},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1620,"slug":1621,"category":1147,"order":1622},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1624,"slug":1625,"category":1169,"order":1622},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1627,"slug":1628,"category":1147,"order":1629},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1631,"slug":1632,"category":1169,"order":1629},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1634,"slug":1635,"category":1147,"order":1636},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1638,"slug":1639,"category":1169,"order":1636},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1641,"slug":1642,"category":1147,"order":1643},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1645,"slug":1646,"category":1169,"order":1643},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1648,"slug":1649,"category":1147,"order":1650},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1652,"slug":1653,"category":1169,"order":1650},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1655,"slug":1656,"category":1147,"order":1657},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1659,"slug":1660,"category":1169,"order":1657},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":5,"slug":1157,"category":1147,"order":1153},{"title":1663,"slug":1664,"category":1169,"order":1153},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1666,"slug":1667,"category":1147,"order":1668},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1670,"slug":1671,"category":1169,"order":1668},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1673,"slug":1674,"category":1147,"order":1675},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1677,"slug":1678,"category":1169,"order":1675},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1680,"slug":1681,"category":1147,"order":1682},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1684,"slug":1685,"category":1169,"order":1682},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1687,"slug":1688,"category":1147,"order":1689},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1691,"slug":1692,"category":1169,"order":1689},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1694,"slug":1695,"category":1147,"order":1696},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1698,"slug":1699,"category":1169,"order":1696},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1701,"slug":1702,"category":1147,"order":1703},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1705,"slug":1706,"category":1169,"order":1703},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1708,"slug":1709,"category":1147,"order":1710},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1712,"slug":1713,"category":1169,"order":1710},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1715,"slug":1716,"category":1147,"order":1717},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1719,"slug":1720,"category":1169,"order":1717},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1722,"slug":1723,"category":1147,"order":1724},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1726,"slug":1727,"category":1169,"order":1724},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1729,"slug":1730,"category":1147,"order":1731},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1733,"slug":1734,"category":1169,"order":1731},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1736,"slug":1737,"category":1147,"order":1738},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1740,"slug":1741,"category":1169,"order":1738},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1743,"slug":1744,"category":1147,"order":1745},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1747,"slug":1748,"category":1169,"order":1745},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1750,"slug":1751,"category":1147,"order":1752},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1754,"slug":1755,"category":1169,"order":1752},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1757,"slug":1758,"category":1147,"order":1759},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1761,"slug":1762,"category":1169,"order":1759},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1764,"slug":1765,"category":1147,"order":1766},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1768,"slug":1769,"category":1169,"order":1766},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1771,"slug":1772,"category":1147,"order":1773},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1775,"slug":1776,"category":1169,"order":1773},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1778,"slug":1779,"category":1147,"order":1780},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1782,"slug":1783,"category":1169,"order":1780},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1785,"slug":1786,"category":1147,"order":1787},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1789,"slug":1790,"category":1169,"order":1787},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1792,"slug":1793,"category":1147,"order":1794},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1796,"slug":1797,"category":1169,"order":1794},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1799,"slug":1800,"category":1147,"order":1801},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1803,"slug":1804,"category":1169,"order":1801},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1806,"slug":1807,"category":1147,"order":1808},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1810,"slug":1811,"category":1169,"order":1808},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1813,"slug":1814,"category":1147,"order":1815},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1817,"slug":1818,"category":1169,"order":1815},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1820,"slug":1821,"category":1147,"order":1822},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1824,"slug":1825,"category":1169,"order":1822},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1827,"slug":1828,"category":1147,"order":1829},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1831,"slug":1832,"category":1169,"order":1829},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1834,"slug":1835,"category":1147,"order":1836},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1838,"slug":1839,"category":1169,"order":1836},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1841,"slug":1842,"category":1147,"order":1843},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1845,"slug":1846,"category":1169,"order":1843},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1848,"slug":1849,"category":1147,"order":1850},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1852,"slug":1853,"category":1169,"order":1850},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1855,"slug":1856,"category":1147,"order":1857},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1859,"slug":1860,"category":1169,"order":1857},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1862,"slug":1863,"category":1147,"order":1864},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1866,"slug":1867,"category":1169,"order":1864},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1869,"slug":1870,"category":1147,"order":1871},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1873,"slug":1874,"category":1169,"order":1871},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1876,"slug":1877,"category":1147,"order":1878},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1880,"slug":1881,"category":1169,"order":1878},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1883,"slug":1884,"category":1147,"order":1885},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1887,"slug":1888,"category":1169,"order":1885},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1890,"slug":1891,"category":1147,"order":1892},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1894,"slug":1895,"category":1169,"order":1892},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1897,"slug":1898,"category":1147,"order":1899},"2019 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