[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2876},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1340,"library-sidebar-dao":2342,"library-sidebar-models":2644},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1326,"date":1327,"description":1328,"extension":1329,"meta":1330,"navigation":1331,"order":1332,"path":1333,"seo":1334,"seoDescription":1328,"seoTitle":1335,"slug":1336,"stem":1337,"__hash__":1338,"_collection":1339},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","1989 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1305},"minimark",[9,13,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,71,74,82,85,88,91,94,97,100,472,477,480,483,490,493,496,499,502,505,508,511,515,518,521,524,527,530,533,535,538,541,544,547,549,552,555,558,561,564,567,569,572,575,578,581,584,587,589,592,595,598,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,793,798,801,804,807,810,813,816,819,822,825,828,835,838,841,844,847,850,853,856,859,862,865,876,879,882,885,888,891,894,897,900,990,993,996,999,1002,1005,1008,1015,1018,1021,1024,1027,1030,1033,1036,1039,1042,1045,1048,1058,1061,1064,1067,1070,1073,1076,1079,1082,1085,1088,1091,1094,1097,1100,1103,1106,1109,1116,1119,1122,1125,1128,1131,1138,1141,1144,1151,1158,1161,1164,1167,1170,1173,1180,1183,1186,1190,1193,1196,1199,1202,1205,1208,1211,1214,1217,1220,1223,1230,1233,1236,1239,1242,1245,1248,1251,1254,1257,1260,1263,1266,1269,1272,1275,1278,1281,1284,1287,1290,1293,1296,1299,1302],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_1989-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,21,22],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东：",[14,24,25],{},"1989年我们的净资产增加了15.15亿美元，增幅为44.4%。自现任管理层接手的25年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19.46美元增长到4,296.01美元，年复合增长率约为23.8%。",[14,27,28],{},"然而，真正重要的是内在价值——这个数字代表我们旗下所有业务合理价值的总和。如果有完美的远见，这个数字可以通过对企业未来所有的现金流（流入和流出）按现行利率折现来计算。如此一来，不管是制造马鞭的还是经营移动电话的，都可以在同一个基础上评估其经济价值。",[14,30,31],{},"当伯克希尔的账面价值还是19.46美元的时候，其内在价值要更低一些，因为当时的账面价值全部绑在一个纺织业务上，而这个业务的实际价值还不如账上记的那个数。如今我们大部分的业务价值已经远超过账面价值。这种从折价到溢价的令人愉悦的演变，意味着伯克希尔内在价值的复合增长率要比账面价值23.8%的年增长率还要再高一些。",[14,33,34],{},"后视镜是一回事，透过挡风玻璃看前方又是另一回事。我们账面价值的很大一部分是由有价证券构成的，除了少数例外，这些证券在资产负债表上是以当前市价列示的。年末时这些证券的市价相对于其内在价值，已经比过去高出不少。一方面是1989年股市大涨的结果，更重要的是，这些企业的优秀品质已经获得市场的广泛认可。如果说过去它们的股价曾经被不合理地低估，那么现在已经不是这种情况了。",[14,36,37],{},"我们会继续持有大部分的主要持仓，不管它们的价格相对于内在价值是高是低。这种\"至死不渝\"的态度，再加上这些持仓目前的高价位，意味着它们未来对伯克希尔价值的推升力度，不太可能像过去那么强劲了。换句话说，我们能有今天的成绩，得益于\"双重收获\"：(1) 我们旗下的投资组合公司创造了非凡的内在价值增长；(2) 市场合理地\"修正\"了这些公司的股价，使其估值相对于一般企业大幅提升，我们因此获得了额外的红利。我们仍将继续受益于投资组合公司良好的业务价值增长——对此我们充满信心。但\"估值修复\"的红利已经兑现，这意味着将来我们只能靠\"单重收获\"了。",[14,39,40],{},"我们还面临另一个障碍：在一个有限的世界里，高增长率终将自我终结。如果增长的基数很小，这条定律可能暂时不起作用。但当基数膨胀到一定程度，好日子就到头了：高增长率最终会铸造自己的锚链。",[14,42,43],{},"卡尔·萨根 (Carl Sagan) 曾对这种现象做过一段妙趣横生的描述，他想象了细菌的命运——这些小家伙每15分钟分裂一次。萨根说：\"这意味着每小时翻四倍，每天翻96倍。虽然一个细菌的重量只有一万亿分之一克，但经过一天疯狂的无性繁殖之后，它们的后代总重量将和一座山一样重……两天后，比太阳还重——用不了多久，宇宙中的一切都将由细菌组成。\"不用担心，萨根接着说：总有一些障碍会阻止这种指数级增长。\"要么食物耗尽了，要么互相毒死了，要么不好意思在大庭广众之下繁殖。\"",[14,45,46],{},"即便在最糟糕的日子里，查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger)——伯克希尔的副董事长兼我的合伙人——和我也不会把伯克希尔视为细菌。而且，让我们万分遗憾的是，我们至今也没找到每15分钟就能把净资产翻一番的方法。此外，我们也毫不介意在大庭广众之下进行\"繁殖\"——当然是财务上的。尽管如此，萨根的观察依然适用。以伯克希尔目前49亿美元净资产的基数，要实现年均15%的账面价值增长，其难度要比我们从2,200万美元起步时实现年均23.8%的增长大得多。",[10,48,49],{"id":49},"税务",[14,51,52],{},"1989年伯克希尔15亿美元的净利润，是在缴纳了约7.12亿美元所得税之后实现的。此外，伯克希尔在五大主要被投资公司缴纳的所得税中应占份额约为1.75亿美元。",[14,54,55],{},"在今年的所得税费用中，大约1.72亿美元需要当期支付；其余的5.4亿美元则是递延处理的。递延部分几乎全部与1989年我们持有的普通股未实现增值收益有关。我们按34%的税率对这部分增值计提了准备。",[14,57,58],{},"1987年和1988年的未实现收益，我们也按同样的税率计提了准备。但正如去年所解释的，1987年之前我们累积的未实现收益——约12亿美元——仍按当时28%的税率计提准备。",[14,60,61],{},"一项新的会计准则可能会要求公司对所有未实现收益按现行税率计提准备，不管税率是多少。按34%的税率计算，这项规则将增加我们的递延税款负债，减少我们的净资产约7,100万美元——这是把1987年之前的收益准备金税率提高6个百分点的结果。由于这项拟议的规则引发了广泛争议，最终版本尚不明朗，我们暂时还没做这项调整。",[14,63,64],{},"大家可以从资产负债表上看到，如果在年末按市价将所有有价证券全部出清，我们需要缴纳超过11亿美元的税款。但这11亿美元的负债，是否等同于——甚至类似于——年底后15天就要付给供应商的11亿美元应付货款呢？显然不是——尽管在审计后的净资产计算中，两者的效果完全一样，都是减少11亿美元。",[14,66,67],{},"另一方面，这笔递延税款是否只是一个毫无意义的会计虚构呢？毕竟它的支付只能通过出售股票来触发，而在很大程度上，我们根本无意出售这些股票。答案同样是否定的。",[14,69,70],{},"从经济实质来看，这笔负债更像是美国财政部给我们的一笔无息贷款，而且到期日由我们自己说了算（当然，除非国会决定在收益实现之前就征税）。这笔\"贷款\"还有其他古怪之处：它只能用于持有那些已经增值的特定股票，而且金额会随着每天的市价变动和税率的定期调整而波动。实际上，这种递延税款就相当于一笔巨额的\"转让税\"——只有当我们选择从一项资产换到另一项资产时才需要支付。事实上，1989年我们出售了一小部分持仓，产生了2.24亿美元的资本利得，因此缴纳了约7,600万美元的\"转让税\"。",[14,72,73],{},"由于税法的运作方式，我们所偏爱的\"瑞普·凡·温克尔\"式投资法（就像那个一觉睡了20年的人）——如果成功的话——相比疯狂进出的做法，有一个重要的数学优势。让我们来看一个极端的比较。",[14,75,76,77,81],{},"假设伯克希尔只有1美元，投到一只年末翻了一倍的证券上然后卖出。再假设我们用税后所得在接下来的19年重复这个过程，每次都翻一倍。20年下来，我们每次卖出所缴纳的34%资本利得税，总共将贡献给政府约13,000美元，而我们自己则剩下约25,250美元。看起来还不错。但如果我们做一笔绝妙的投资，",[78,79,80],"em",{},"它自身","在20年里翻了20倍，我们的1美元将增长到1,048,576美元。届时如果我们套现，按34%缴纳约356,500美元的税款，最终到手约692,000美元。",[14,83,84],{},"造成如此惊人差距的唯一原因，就是纳税时间的不同。有趣的是，政府在方案二中的收益也是完全相同的27:1的比例——税收为356,500美元对比13,000美元——当然，政府得等上更长时间才能拿到这笔钱。",[14,86,87],{},"我们必须强调，我们并不是因为这种数学优势才偏爱长期投资策略的。事实上，通过频繁地从一项投资换到另一项投资，我们有可能获得更高的税后回报。很多年前，查理跟我就是这么干的。",[14,89,90],{},"现在我们宁愿按兵不动，即使这意味着回报率会稍低一些。理由很简单：我们发现美好的商业关系如此稀有、如此令人愉悦，以至于我们想珍惜已经建立起来的每一段关系。做出这个决定对我们来说尤其容易，因为我们相信这些关系将带来良好的——虽然也许不是最优的——财务回报。想到这些，我们觉得放弃与那些我们深知有趣且令人钦佩的人相处的时间，去和那些我们不了解、且人格特质很可能接近平庸水准的人打交道，实在是毫无道理。这就好比为了钱而结婚——在大多数情况下是错误的，如果本身已经很富有了，那简直就是疯了。",[10,92,93],{"id":93},"报告收益来源",[14,95,96],{},"下表列示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在本表中，商誉摊销及其他主要购买法会计调整并未分摊到相应的各项业务中，而是单独加总列示。这样做是为了让大家看到这些业务在我们收购之前的原始收益状况。我在过去的年报中已经解释过，为什么我们认为这种呈现方式比通用会计准则 (GAAP) 要求的逐项调整方式对投资者和管理者更有用。当然，表中的净收益合计与经审计的财务报表中的GAAP数字完全一致。",[14,98,99],{},"年报中还有各业务部门的详细信息。有关韦斯科金融 (Wesco) 的业务情况，我强烈建议大家阅读查理·芒格写的年报，里面还附有查理在1989年5月写给美国储贷联盟的公开信，信中传达了我们对其政策的不满以及决定辞去该组织职务的决定。",[101,102,103,122],"table",{},[104,105,106],"thead",{},[107,108,109,112,115,117,120],"tr",{},[110,111],"th",{},[110,113,114],{},"税前收益",[110,116,114],{},[110,118,119],{},"税后收益（伯克希尔应占）",[110,121,119],{},[123,124,125,141,154,167,184,201,218,235,252,269,286,303,320,337,353,370,387,404,421,438,455],"tbody",{},[107,126,127,131,134,137,139],{},[128,129,130],"td",{},"（千美元）",[128,132,133],{},"1989",[128,135,136],{},"1988",[128,138,133],{},[128,140,136],{},[107,142,143,146,148,150,152],{},[128,144,145],{},"经营收益来源:",[128,147],{},[128,149],{},[128,151],{},[128,153],{},[107,155,156,159,161,163,165],{},[128,157,158],{},"保险集团:",[128,160],{},[128,162],{},[128,164],{},[128,166],{},[107,168,169,172,175,178,181],{},[128,170,171],{},"承保收益",[128,173,174],{},"$ (24,400)",[128,176,177],{},"$ (11,081)",[128,179,180],{},"$ (12,259)",[128,182,183],{},"$ (1,045)",[107,185,186,189,192,195,198],{},[128,187,188],{},"净投资收益",[128,190,191],{},"243,599",[128,193,194],{},"231,250",[128,196,197],{},"213,642",[128,199,200],{},"197,779",[107,202,203,206,209,212,215],{},[128,204,205],{},"布法罗新闻报",[128,207,208],{},"46,047",[128,210,211],{},"42,429",[128,213,214],{},"27,771",[128,216,217],{},"25,462",[107,219,220,223,226,229,232],{},[128,221,222],{},"菲希海默制服",[128,224,225],{},"12,621",[128,227,228],{},"14,152",[128,230,231],{},"6,789",[128,233,234],{},"7,720",[107,236,237,240,243,246,249],{},[128,238,239],{},"柯比吸尘器",[128,241,242],{},"26,114",[128,244,245],{},"26,891",[128,247,248],{},"16,803",[128,250,251],{},"17,842",[107,253,254,257,260,263,266],{},[128,255,256],{},"内布拉斯加家具店",[128,258,259],{},"17,070",[128,261,262],{},"18,439",[128,264,265],{},"8,441",[128,267,268],{},"9,099",[107,270,271,274,277,280,283],{},[128,272,273],{},"斯科特费泽制造集团",[128,275,276],{},"33,165",[128,278,279],{},"28,542",[128,281,282],{},"19,996",[128,284,285],{},"17,640",[107,287,288,291,294,297,300],{},[128,289,290],{},"喜诗糖果",[128,292,293],{},"34,235",[128,295,296],{},"32,473",[128,298,299],{},"20,626",[128,301,302],{},"19,671",[107,304,305,308,311,314,317],{},[128,306,307],{},"韦斯科金融（保险除外）",[128,309,310],{},"13,008",[128,312,313],{},"16,133",[128,315,316],{},"9,810",[128,318,319],{},"10,650",[107,321,322,325,328,331,334],{},[128,323,324],{},"世界图书百科全书",[128,326,327],{},"25,583",[128,329,330],{},"27,890",[128,332,333],{},"16,372",[128,335,336],{},"18,021",[107,338,339,342,345,348,351],{},[128,340,341],{},"商誉摊销",[128,343,344],{},"(3,387)",[128,346,347],{},"(2,806)",[128,349,350],{},"(3,372)",[128,352,347],{},[107,354,355,358,361,364,367],{},[128,356,357],{},"购买法会计——其他费用",[128,359,360],{},"(5,740)",[128,362,363],{},"(6,342)",[128,365,366],{},"(6,668)",[128,368,369],{},"(7,340)",[107,371,372,375,378,381,384],{},[128,373,374],{},"利息费用*",[128,376,377],{},"(42,389)",[128,379,380],{},"(35,613)",[128,382,383],{},"(27,098)",[128,385,386],{},"(23,212)",[107,388,389,392,395,398,401],{},[128,390,391],{},"股东指定捐赠",[128,393,394],{},"(5,867)",[128,396,397],{},"(4,966)",[128,399,400],{},"(3,814)",[128,402,403],{},"(3,217)",[107,405,406,409,412,415,418],{},[128,407,408],{},"其他",[128,410,411],{},"23,755",[128,413,414],{},"41,059",[128,416,417],{},"12,863",[128,419,420],{},"27,177",[107,422,423,426,429,432,435],{},[128,424,425],{},"经营收益合计",[128,427,428],{},"393,414",[128,430,431],{},"418,450",[128,433,434],{},"299,902",[128,436,437],{},"313,441",[107,439,440,443,446,449,452],{},[128,441,442],{},"出售证券收益",[128,444,445],{},"223,810",[128,447,448],{},"131,671",[128,450,451],{},"147,575",[128,453,454],{},"85,829",[107,456,457,460,463,466,469],{},[128,458,459],{},"所有实体收益合计",[128,461,462],{},"$ 617,224",[128,464,465],{},"$ 550,121",[128,467,468],{},"$ 447,477",[128,470,471],{},"$ 399,270",[14,473,474],{},[78,475,476],{},"* 不含斯科特费泽金融集团及互助储贷的利息费用。",[14,478,479],{},"在后面的页面中，我将伯克希尔的财务数据重新整理为四大类。这是查理跟我思考公司业务的方式，应该有助于大家计算伯克希尔的内在价值。这些页面上展示的资产负债表和损益表分别对应：(1) 保险业务，并逐项列明主要投资部位；(2) 制造、出版和零售业务，剔除若干非经营性资产和购买法会计调整；(3) 从事金融类业务的子公司，即互助储贷和斯科特费泽金融；(4) 其他项目，包括第(2)类公司持有的非经营性资产（主要是有价证券）、所有购买法会计调整，以及韦斯科和伯克希尔母公司的各类资产和负债。",[14,481,482],{},"如果你将这四个类别的收益和净资产加总，会得出与GAAP报表一致的总数。不过，我必须强调，这种四分类的呈现方式并不在审计师的审计范围之内，他们可不想蹚这浑水。",[14,484,485,486,489],{},"除了我们的报告收益之外，我们还从标准会计准则不允许我们报告的被投资公司收益中获益良多。后面列示的五家主要被投资公司在1989年支付给我们的税后现金股利合计约4,500万美元。然而，我们在这些被投资公司",[78,487,488],{},"留存","收益中应占的份额去年总计约2.12亿美元，这还不包括盖可保险 (GEICO) 和可口可乐 (Coca-Cola) 实现的大额资本利得。如果这2.12亿美元分配给我们，在缴纳额外的所得税之后，我们自己的经营收益将接近5亿美元，而不是表中所示的3亿美元。",[14,491,492],{},"你必须判断的是，这些未分配的收益对我们的价值，是否等同于我们已经入账的那些收益。我们相信它们是同等价值的——甚至可能更有价值。之所以得出这个\"一鸟在林胜于二鸟在手\"的结论，原因在于这些被投资公司的留存收益，是由才华横溢、以股东利益为导向的管理者在运用，他们有时能在自己的业务中找到比我们更好的资金用途。对于大多数管理层，我不会给出这么高的评价，但就这几家公司而言，确实实至名归。",[14,494,495],{},"在我们看来，衡量伯克希尔基本盈利能力的最佳方法是\"透视收益\"法，即在我们自己的报告经营收益基础上，加上被投资公司留存收益中属于我们的份额，两种情况下均不包括资本利得。要使伯克希尔的内在价值平均每年增长15%，我们的透视收益也必须以大致相同的速度增长。我们需要现有被投资公司给予大力支持，同时也需要不时增添新的成员，才能达到这15%的目标。",[10,497,498],{"id":498},"非保险业务经营",[14,500,501],{},"过去，我们把主要的制造、出版和零售业务昵称为\"七圣徒\"。1989年初收购了波仙珠宝 (Borsheim's) 之后，我们面临的挑战是找一个既押韵又贴切的新名字。但我们没想出来——就叫\"七加一圣徒\"吧。",[14,503,504],{},"这个神圣的组合——波仙珠宝、布法罗新闻报 (The Buffalo News)、菲希海默兄弟 (Fechheimer Bros.)、柯比吸尘器 (Kirby)、内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart)、斯科特费泽制造集团 (Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group)、喜诗糖果 (See's Candies) 和世界图书百科全书 (World Book)——汇集了经济特质从优秀到卓越的一批企业。至于它们的管理人，那是从卓越到卓越。",[14,506,507],{},"这些管理人大多数根本不需要为谋生而工作；他们出现在球场上，纯粹是因为喜欢击出全垒打。而事实上他们的确做到了。他们的合并财务报表（包含一些较小的业务）显示出多么出色的业绩表现。以历史成本为基准，这些业务的税后收益达到平均股东权益的57%。而且，这一回报是在零净杠杆的条件下实现的：现金等价物足以覆盖全部有息负债。当我念出这些管理人的名字——布鲁姆金 (Blumkin)、弗里德曼 (Friedman) 和赫尔德曼 (Heldman) 家族、查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins)、斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey)、拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey)——我感受到的那种兴奋，就像名教练米勒·哈金斯 (Miller Huggins) 在宣布1927年纽约洋基队的先发阵容时一样。",[14,509,510],{},"现在让我们逐一检视：",[512,513,514],"h2",{"id":514},"波仙珠宝",[14,516,517],{},"波仙珠宝加入伯克希尔的第一年便达到了我们所有的预期。销售额大幅增长，现在已经比四年前搬到现址时高出一倍不止。而在搬来之前的六年里，销售额也已经翻了一番。艾克·弗里德曼 (Ike Friedman) 是波仙的管理天才——我是认真的——他只有一个速度：快进。",[14,519,520],{},"如果你还没有去过那里，那你一定没见过像波仙这样的珠宝店。由于在一家门店就做出了巨大的销量，它可以在各个价位维持海量的商品选择。同样的原因，它的费用率大约只有同类珠宝店的三分之一。对费用的严格管控，加上非凡的采购能力，使得波仙的珠宝售价远低于其他珠宝店。而低价又带来更大的销量，如此循环往复。最终的结果是：旺季单日客流量高达四千人。",[14,522,523],{},"艾克·弗里德曼不仅是一位出色的商人和伟大的表演者，更是一个品格正直的人。我们买下这家店时根本没做审计，而事后所有的意外全是惊喜。\"不懂珠宝没关系，但一定要认识你的珠宝商\"——这句话无论是买一颗小钻石还是买下整家店，都一样管用。",[14,525,526],{},"有一个故事可以说明为什么我如此欣赏艾克：每两年我都会参加一个非正式的聚会，大家一起找乐子、探索几个有趣的话题。去年九月，我们在圣塔菲的主教山庄 (Bishop's Lodge) 聚会，邀请艾克和他的妻子罗兹 (Roz) 以及儿子艾伦 (Alan) 过来给大家讲讲珠宝这门生意。",[14,528,529],{},"艾克决定要让大家大开眼界，所以他专程从奥马哈带来了价值约2,000万美元的顶级珠宝。我有点担心——主教山庄可不是诺克斯堡 (Fort Knox，美国黄金储备基地)——于是在头天晚上的欢迎酒会上，我向艾克表达了我的顾虑。艾克把我拉到一旁，说：\"看到那个保险箱了吗？今天下午我们已经换了密码，现在连酒店管理层都不知道。\"我松了一口气。艾克接着说：\"看到旁边那两个腰上别着枪的大块头了吗？他们会整晚守着保险箱。\"我现在放心了，准备回去参加酒会。但艾克凑到我耳边，悄悄说：\"再说了，沃伦，真正的珠宝根本不在保险箱里。\"",[14,531,532],{},"有这样一号人物，我们怎么可能错过——尤其是他背后还有一个兼具才华和活力的家族：艾伦、马文·科恩 (Marvin Cohn) 和唐·耶鲁 (Don Yale)。",[512,534,290],{"id":290},[14,536,537],{},"在喜诗糖果，尽管1988年本身就已是创纪录的一年，糖果的销售磅数又增加了8%。1989年的业绩中还包括同店销售磅数多年来的首次正增长，这一点尤为出色。",[14,539,540],{},"广告在这一优异表现中扮演了重要角色。我们把广告总预算从400万美元增加到了500万美元，而且我们的广告代理公司Hal Riney & Partners制作的广告文案，把钱100%花在传达喜诗之所以特别的品质上。",[14,542,543],{},"在我们的媒体业务中，比如布法罗新闻报，我们是卖广告的。在其他业务中，比如喜诗，我们是买广告的。当我们买广告时，我们完全按照自己卖广告时所宣扬的那一套来做。去年喜诗在报纸广告上的花费是原来的三倍多，这是我印象中占销售额比例最高的一次。回报极其惊人，我们感谢Hal Riney公司以及报纸广告精准投放所带来的成果。",[14,545,546],{},"喜诗的卓越表现已成为常态。但查克·哈金斯 (Chuck Huggins) 的管理绝非理所当然：他每天都深入参与生产和销售的方方面面，将品质与服务的理念传达给数千名员工——我们每年需要靠他们来生产和配送超过2,700万磅的糖果。在一家拥有225家门店、外加庞大邮购和电话订购业务的公司里，要做到几乎每位顾客都满意而归，可不是一件容易的事。但查克让这一切看起来轻轻松松。",[512,548,256],{"id":256},[14,550,551],{},"内布拉斯加家具店在1989年创下了销售额和利润的新纪录，但也伴随着一个令人伤感的消息。52年前以500美元创办这家店的B夫人 (Mrs. B)——罗斯·布鲁姆金 (Rose Blumkin)——由于与布鲁姆金家族其他成员在地毯部门的改造和经营上意见不合，在五月份辞职了。",[14,553,554],{},"B夫人可能是当今在世的美国人中做出最多聪明商业决策的人，但在这件事上我认为家族其他成员是完全正确的：过去三年来，店内其他部门的销售额增长了24%，地毯部门的销售却下降了17%（但这并不是因为B夫人的销售能力退步——她个人卖出的商品始终远超店内任何其他营业员）。",[14,556,557],{},"大家应该会高兴地得知，B夫人依然让霍雷肖·阿尔杰 (Horatio Alger，美国励志小说家) 笔下的英雄们相形见绌。96岁高龄的她又开始了新的生意，卖的是什么呢？还不是地毯和家具。而且一如既往，每周工作七天。",[14,559,560],{},"在原来的家具店，路易 (Louie)、罗恩 (Ron) 和艾文·布鲁姆金 (Irv Blumkin) 继续推动着这家全美规模最大、最成功的家居用品店。他们是杰出的商人、杰出的管理者，与他们共事是一件快乐的事。有一件事可以说明他们的精明：1989年第四季度，地毯部门在奥马哈市场的消费者份额从上一年的67.7%提升到了75.3%，是最接近的竞争对手的六倍以上。",[14,562,563],{},"内布拉斯加家具店和波仙珠宝遵循着完全相同的成功法则：(1) 在单一地点提供无与伦比的商品深度和广度；(2) 行业中最低的运营成本；(3) 精明的采购——部分得益于巨大的进货量；(4) 毛利率以及因此形成的零售价格远低于竞争对手；(5) 亲切的个性化服务，家族成员随时在场。",[14,565,566],{},"再给报纸做个广告：内布拉斯加家具店在1989年增加了超过20%的报纸广告版面——这是在已经创纪录的1988年基础上——它仍然是遥遥领先的当地报纸最大ROP广告客户。（ROP广告是指印在报纸版面上的广告，不同于夹报广告。）据我所知，奥马哈是唯一一个以家居用品商店为报纸最大广告客户的城市。1989年许多零售商缩减了广告投放，但根据我们在喜诗糖果和内布拉斯加家具店的经验，这实在是一个天大的错误。",[512,568,205],{"id":205},[14,570,571],{},"布法罗新闻报 (The Buffalo News) 在1989年有三个重要方面的杰出表现：第一，在所有主要都会区报纸中（不论日报还是周日版），布法罗新闻报的家庭渗透率位居第一——即当地家庭每日购买报纸的比例。第二，在\"新闻版面\"——即报纸用于新闻的版面占比——方面，1989年达到50.1%，高于1988年的49.5%，使其新闻内容再次超越美国任何同类报纸。第三，在许多大型报纸利润下滑的一年里，布法罗新闻报创下了连续第七年的利润纪录。",[14,573,574],{},"在某种程度上，这三个因素是相互关联的，虽然显然高比例的新闻版面本身会大幅减少利润。然而，一个充实且运用得当的新闻版面能够吸引各个层面的读者，从而提升渗透率。高渗透率反过来又使报纸对零售商特别有价值，因为它让他们可以通过一个\"扩音器\"与整个社区对话。渗透率低的报纸对许多广告商来说就缺乏吸引力，最终必然在广告费率和利润上双双受创。",[14,576,577],{},"必须强调的是，我们出色的渗透率既非偶然也非自然而然的事。布法罗新闻报的大本营伊利县 (Erie County) 的人口一直在下降——从1970年的111.3万降至1980年的101.5万，再到1988年估计的96.6万。但发行量却是另一番景象。1975年，就在我们推出周日版之前不久，布法罗另一家历史悠久的报纸《信使快报》(Courier-Express) 在伊利县的周日发行量为20.75万份。去年——在人口至少减少了5%的情况下——布法罗新闻报的平均发行量达到了29.27万份。我相信，在美国其他主要的周日版市场中，没有任何一家报纸的渗透率增长能与之相提并论。",[14,579,580],{},"当一家报纸取得这样的成绩——当一家报纸在自己的家乡获得了无人能及的认可——一定有人居功至伟。在这件事上，功劳首推默里·莱特 (Murray Light)，我们的资深总编辑，是他日复一日创造出一份信息丰富、实用有趣的产品。发行和生产部门同样功不可没：一份因印刷或配送问题而经常延误的报纸，不管编辑内容多么精彩，都注定会流失读者。",[14,582,583],{},"斯坦·利普西 (Stan Lipsey) 是布法罗新闻报的出版人，他创造的利润完全对得起我们的产品实力。我相信，与同等条件下的普通管理者相比，斯坦的管理能力至少能为利润率多贡献五个百分点。这是一项了不起的成就，只有一位深知并关心企业每一个细枝末节的优秀管理者才做得到。",[14,585,586],{},"需要强调的是，斯坦的知识和才能同样延伸到编辑出版领域。他职业生涯的早期主要在新闻采编一线度过，曾在策划和编辑一系列报道中发挥关键作用，这些报道在1972年为奥马哈太阳报 (Sun Newspaper) 赢得了普利策奖。斯坦和我已经共事超过20年，风雨同舟，我找不到比他更好的伙伴了。",[512,588,222],{"id":222},[14,590,591],{},"在菲希海默 (Fechheimer)，赫尔德曼家族——鲍勃 (Bob)、乔治 (George)、加里 (Gary)、罗杰 (Roger) 和弗雷德 (Fred)——继续着他们非凡的表现。1989年的利润有所下降，原因是公司在整合1988年的一项大型并购时遇到了一些问题。这些问题会随着时间解决的。与此同时，菲希海默的投入资本回报率依然出色。",[14,593,594],{},"像我们所有的管理人一样，赫尔德曼家族对业务细节了如指掌。在去年的股东大会上我说过，当一个犯人走进圣昆廷监狱 (San Quentin)，鲍勃和乔治大概就能知道他穿多大号衬衫。这只是略微夸张了一点：不管你提到全美哪个地区，他们都清楚地知道主要客户和竞争对手的最新动态。",[14,596,597],{},"虽然我们四年前就买下了菲希海默，但查理和我从未去参观过它的任何一家工厂或辛辛那提的总部。我们就像那个无聊的美泰维修工（Maytag，美国家电品牌，广告中的维修工因产品太可靠而从不被呼叫）：赫尔德曼家族的管理水平太好了，以至于从来不需要我们出马。",[512,599,273],{"id":273},[14,601,602],{},"拉尔夫·谢伊 (Ralph Schey) 在管理我们最大的业务集团——世界图书百科全书 (World Book)、柯比吸尘器 (Kirby) 和斯科特费泽 (Scott Fetzer) 制造公司方面继续做着出色的工作。自我们收购以来，这些业务的合计收益年年增长，投入资本回报率一直非常可观。拉尔夫运营的企业规模之大，单独拿出来都够资格上财富500强 (Fortune 500)。而且他的经营方式，以股本回报率来衡量，足以让他跻身前十之列。",[14,604,605],{},"好几年来，世界图书公司一直在芝加哥商品市场大厦 (Merchandise Mart) 的单一地点运营。由于租约即将到期，公司正在分散到四个地点。搬迁费用相当可观；尽管如此，1989年的利润仍然坚挺。搬迁成本的影响要再过一年才会完全消化。",[14,607,608],{},"柯比的生意去年特别兴旺，出口销售大幅增长。国际业务在过去两年翻了一番多，四年来增长了四倍；其在销售台数中的份额从5%上升到了20%。我们1989年最大的资本支出就花在柯比身上，为1990年的一次重大改款做准备。",[14,610,611],{},"拉尔夫管理的业务所贡献的收益约占非保险集团总收益的40%。当我们在1986年初买下斯科特费泽时，得到拉尔夫这位管理者与买下这些企业本身同等重要。除了创造非凡的收益之外，拉尔夫在资本管理方面也是一把好手。他的能力源源不断地为伯克希尔提供资金，使我们得以做出许多其他有利可图的投资。",[14,613,614],{},"以上就是我们的1927年洋基队阵容！",[10,616,617],{"id":617},"保险业务经营",[14,619,620],{},"下表是财产意外险行业的几项关键指标更新版：",[101,622,623,642],{},[104,624,625],{},[107,626,627,630,633,636,639],{},[110,628,629],{},"年度",[110,631,632],{},"保费收入增长率 (%)",[110,634,635],{},"综合比率（扣除保户股利后）",[110,637,638],{},"损失赔付增长率 (%)",[110,640,641],{},"通货膨胀率（GNP平减指数，%）",[123,643,644,661,677,693,709,726,743,760,776],{},[107,645,646,649,652,655,658],{},[128,647,648],{},"1981",[128,650,651],{},"3.8",[128,653,654],{},"106.0",[128,656,657],{},"6.5",[128,659,660],{},"9.6",[107,662,663,666,669,672,675],{},[128,664,665],{},"1982",[128,667,668],{},"3.7",[128,670,671],{},"109.6",[128,673,674],{},"8.4",[128,676,657],{},[107,678,679,682,685,688,691],{},[128,680,681],{},"1983",[128,683,684],{},"5.0",[128,686,687],{},"112.0",[128,689,690],{},"6.8",[128,692,651],{},[107,694,695,698,701,704,707],{},[128,696,697],{},"1984",[128,699,700],{},"8.5",[128,702,703],{},"118.0",[128,705,706],{},"16.9",[128,708,651],{},[107,710,711,714,717,720,723],{},[128,712,713],{},"1985",[128,715,716],{},"22.1",[128,718,719],{},"116.3",[128,721,722],{},"16.1",[128,724,725],{},"3.0",[107,727,728,731,734,737,740],{},[128,729,730],{},"1986",[128,732,733],{},"22.2",[128,735,736],{},"108.0",[128,738,739],{},"13.5",[128,741,742],{},"2.6",[107,744,745,748,751,754,757],{},[128,746,747],{},"1987",[128,749,750],{},"9.4",[128,752,753],{},"104.6",[128,755,756],{},"7.8",[128,758,759],{},"3.1",[107,761,762,764,767,770,773],{},[128,763,136],{},[128,765,766],{},"4.4",[128,768,769],{},"105.4",[128,771,772],{},"5.5",[128,774,775],{},"3.3",[107,777,778,781,784,787,790],{},[128,779,780],{},"1989（估计）",[128,782,783],{},"2.1",[128,785,786],{},"110.4",[128,788,789],{},"8.7",[128,791,792],{},"4.2",[14,794,795],{},[78,796,797],{},"资料来源：贝氏评级公司 (A.M. Best Co.)",[14,799,800],{},"综合比率代表保险总成本（赔付损失加上费用）与保费收入之比：低于100表示承保盈利，高于100则意味着承保亏损。如果把保险公司持有保户资金（即\"浮存金\"）所产生的投资收益考虑在内，综合比率在107到111之间通常意味着整体盈亏平衡（不含股东权益产生的收益）。",[14,802,803],{},"基于前几次年报中阐述的理由，我们预计行业的赔付损失每年将增长约10%，即使在通货膨胀远低于这个水平的年份也是如此。（实际上，过去25年来赔付损失以更快的速度增长，达到11%。）如果保费收入的增长明显落后于这10%的速度，承保亏损将会扩大——尽管行业在业务恶化时习惯性地降低准备金提存，可能会暂时掩盖亏损的真实规模。",[14,805,806],{},"去年我们说综合比率的攀升\"几乎肯定会持续——而且可能会加速——至少还要再持续两年\"。今年我们不再预测加速，但必须重复去年的预测。保费收入的增长率远低于每年所需的10%。而且大家要记住，10%的增长率只能稳住综合比率，却不能让它下降。",[14,808,809],{},"1989年综合比率的上升幅度略超我们的预期，因为灾害损失（以雨果飓风 (Hurricane Hugo) 为首）异常严重。这些异常因素大约导致了综合比率上升了两个百分点。如果1990年是比较\"正常\"的一年，综合比率在受灾害推高的1989年基础上应该只会小幅上升。但到了1991年，这一比率很可能会有更大幅度的攀升。",[14,811,812],{},"保险业分析师经常讨论所谓的\"承保周期\"，并猜测它下一次反转的时点。如果这个词意味着有节奏的规律性，那么在我们看来这是一个用词不当，会导致对行业基本经济规律的错误理解。",[14,814,815],{},"几十年前，当行业和监管机构携手以卡特尔的方式经营业务时，这个词还算贴切。那时候综合比率的有节奏波动源于两个原因，都与时滞有关。第一，分析过去的数据，然后据此制定新的\"修正\"费率，几乎所有的保险公司都会统一采用。第二，几乎所有保单的期限都是一到三年——这意味着定价错误的保单要经过相当长的时间才会到期——从而延迟了新费率对收入的影响。这两个滞后效应使得综合比率的表现就像交流电一样有周期性。与此同时，没有显著的价格竞争，保证了行业在整个周期中平均下来利润令人满意。",[14,817,818],{},"卡特尔的时代早已一去不复返了。如今行业中有数以百计的参与者，以各自独立制定的价格销售一种类似大宗商品的产品。这种格局——不管卖的是钢铁还是保险单——注定在所有情况下都只能产生低于正常水平的利润，只有一种例外：可用产能出现短缺。这种短缺多久发生一次、持续多长时间，决定了该行业的平均盈利水平。",[14,820,821],{},"在大多数行业中，产能是用实物来衡量的。但在保险界，产能通常是用财务指标来衡量的；也就是说，人们普遍认为，如果一家公司有Y美元的净资产，那么它最多只应该承接X美元的业务。但在实践中，这种约束被证明是无效的。监管机构、保险经纪人和客户都懒得去约束那些过度透支自身资源的公司。当公司严重夸大其真实资本时，他们也照样默许。因此，只要一家公司愿意，即使资本很少也可以接下大量的业务。归根结底，在任何特定时刻，行业的产能总量主要取决于保险公司管理者的心态。",[14,823,824],{},"明白了这一点，预测行业的利润就不是特别困难了。只有在产能短缺时才会有好利润。只有在保险公司感到恐惧时才会出现产能短缺。而这种情况很少发生——而且可以肯定的是，目前并不存在。",[14,826,827],{},"有些分析师认为，近期保险业新征的更繁重的税收，加上1989年的灾害——雨果飓风和加州大地震——将导致保费大幅上涨。我们不同意这种看法。这些不利因素并没有削弱保险公司以当前价格承接业务的热情。因此，1990年的保费收入不会增长10%，这意味着承保亏损的恶化趋势不会逆转。",[14,829,830,831,834],{},"与此同时，行业会说它需要更高的价格才能达到美国企业的平均盈利水平。当然需要。钢铁行业也一样。但需要和欲望与行业的长期盈利能力无关。真正起决定作用的是经济基本面。只有当几乎所有保险公司都在",[78,832,833],{},"拒绝","高价业务时，保险业的盈利能力才会改善。而我们距离那一天还很远。",[14,836,837],{},"伯克希尔1990年的保费收入可能会降到1.5亿美元左右（从1986年10亿美元的高峰一路跌下来），部分原因是我们的传统业务持续萎缩，部分原因是我们承接消防员基金保险公司 (Fireman's Fund) 7%业务的合同已于去年八月到期。但不管业务量下降多少，都不会令我们困扰。我们完全没有兴趣去承接那些算下来预期会亏损的保险；光是那些我们认为能赚钱的交易，给我们带来的失望就已经够多了。",[14,839,840],{},"然而，对于价格合理的业务，我们的胃口大得很。1989年的一个故事可以说明这一点。说的是\"巨灾再保险\"(CAT covers)，也就是直接保险公司（以及再保公司本身）购买的再保险合同，用以保护自己免受单一灾难事件——比如龙卷风或飓风——造成大量保单同时出险的损失。在这类合同中，直接保险公司可能会自留单一事件最高比如说1,000万美元的损失，然后在此之上购买多层再保险。当损失超过自留部分时，再保公司通常支付超出部分的95%直至合同上限，直接保险公司支付剩余的5%。（之所以要求直接保险公司在每一层保留5%，是为了让它在每一笔理赔中都有利益关系，防止它慷再保公司之慨。）",[14,842,843],{},"巨灾再保险通常是一年期保单，同时附带一次自动恢复条款，要求保障因灾害耗尽的直接保险公司缴纳追加保费以获得当年剩余时间的第二次保障。这一条款确保直接保险公司在第一次灾害发生后不会出现哪怕很短时间的\"裸奔\"。合同通常规定\"一次事件\"的持续时间限于直接保险公司指定的任意连续72小时。按这个定义，一场因单一气候原因引发、持续三天的大范围风暴将被归为单一事件。但如果风暴持续四天，直接保险公司可以截取遭受损失最严重的连续72小时来索赔，超出这段时间的损失则视为另一个独立事件。",[14,845,846],{},"1989年发生了两件不寻常的事。第一，雨果飓风造成了40亿美元甚至更多的保险损失，但由于时间节奏的关系，它对卡罗莱纳州造成的严重破坏，恰好发生在加勒比海地区同样严重的破坏之后略超过72小时。第二，加州大地震在数周后接踵而至，造成了即使在事件发生很久之后也难以估算的保险损失。遭受了这两次——甚至可能是三次——重大灾害的打击，一些直接保险公司以及许多本身也购买了巨灾再保险的再保公司，要么已经用完了自动恢复的第二次保障，要么不确定是否已经用完。",[14,848,849],{},"在那个时点，巨灾再保单的卖方已经亏了一大笔钱——可能因为自动恢复条款而赔了两倍——但收到的保费却微乎其微。根据各种变量，巨灾再保险的保费通常约为保额的3%到15%。好几年来，我们一直认为这样的保费水平不够充分，所以没有介入这个市场。",[14,851,852],{},"但1989年的灾害使得许多保险公司要么确实、要么可能处于\"裸奔\"状态，同时大多数巨灾再保险承保商也在舔舐自己的伤口，地震之后急需的灾害保障立即出现了供给短缺。价格瞬间变得有吸引力了，尤其是巨灾再保险承保商为自身购买的再保险。同样迅速地，伯克希尔·哈撒韦主动提出可以承保高达2.5亿美元的灾害保障，并在行业出版物上刊登了广告。虽然我们没有拿到所有想要的业务，但在忙碌的十天里，我们签下的保单金额也相当可观。",[14,854,855],{},"我们愿意为一笔明天就可能发生赔付的损失承担如此巨额的风险，这使我们有别于世界上任何一家再保公司。当然，有些公司偶尔也会承接2.5亿美元甚至更多的灾害保障。但他们只有在能够将大部分业务转分保给其他公司时才会这样做。当他们找不到\"接盘侠\"时，就会立刻退出市场。",[14,857,858],{},"相反，伯克希尔的策略是保留我们承接的业务，而不是分保出去。当保费费率预期能够盈利时，我们愿意承担尽可能多的风险。而就我们的情况而言，这个\"尽可能多\"是一个相当大的数字。",[14,860,861],{},"我们之所以愿意为自己的账户承担比任何其他公司都多的再保险风险，有两个因素：(1) 按照监管会计标准，我们保险公司的净资产约为60亿美元——位居全美第二；(2) 我们压根儿不在乎季度甚至年度的报告收益，只要做出这些收益（或亏损）的决策是明智的就行。",[14,863,864],{},"显然，如果我们承保2.5亿美元的巨灾再保险并全部自留，就有一定概率在单个季度损失全部2.5亿美元。这个概率很低，但不是零。如果真的发生这种损失，我们的税后成本约为1.65亿美元。虽然这远超伯克希尔一个季度通常的盈利，但受伤的只是我们的面子，不是我们的根基。",[14,866,867,868,871,872,875],{},"这种姿态在保险业界极为罕见。典型的做法是，保险公司愿意接下大量的保单，这些保单几乎注定只能给他们带来平庸的股本回报率。但他们不愿意让自己面对单个季度的尴尬大亏，即便导致这种亏损的管理策略从长远来看能产出更优异的业绩。我能理解他们的想法：对股东最有利的，并不一定对管理者最有利。幸运的是，查理和我既有完全的工作保障，利益也与股东完全一致。我们愿意",[78,869,870],{},"看起来","像傻瓜，只要我们知道自己没有",[78,873,874],{},"做","傻事。",[14,877,878],{},"顺便说一句，我们的经营方式使我们成为行业中的稳定力量。当产能短缺时，我们增加大量供给；当产能过剩时，我们的竞争力就下降。当然，我们这样做并不是出于稳定市场的目的——而是因为我们认为这是最明智、最有利的做法。不过，我们的行为客观上确实稳定了市场。在这件事上，亚当·斯密 (Adam Smith) 所说的\"看不见的手\"确实如宣传的那样发挥了作用。",[14,880,881],{},"目前，相对于保费收入，我们持有的浮存金规模异常庞大。这种状况应该能让我们在未来几年获得像1989年那样不错的保险业绩。我们的承保损失应该在可接受的范围内，而来自保户资金的投资收益则十分可观。然而，随着浮存金逐渐流出，这种好日子会慢慢消退。",[14,883,884],{},"不过在某个时点，总会有机会让我们承接大量有利可图的业务。迈克·戈德堡 (Mike Goldberg) 和他的管理团队——罗德·埃尔德雷德 (Rod Eldred)、迪诺斯·约尔达努 (Dinos Iordanou)、阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain)、菲尔·厄本 (Phil Urban) 和唐·沃斯特 (Don Wurster)——一直在为这一天做好准备。",[10,886,887],{"id":887},"投资业务",[14,889,890],{},"在为我们的保险公司选择有价证券投资时，我们通常在五大类别中进行选择：(1) 长期普通股投资；(2) 中期固定收益证券；(3) 长期固定收益证券；(4) 短期现金等价物；(5) 短期套利交易。",[14,892,893],{},"在这五类选择中我们没有特别的偏好；我们只是在其中持续不断地寻找以\"数学期望值\"衡量的最高税后回报率，同时始终将自己限定在我们认为自己能够理解的投资范围内。我们的标准与短期报告收益最大化无关；我们的目标是让长期净资产最大化。",[512,895,896],{"id":896},"长期普通股投资",[14,898,899],{},"下表列出了市值超过1亿美元的普通股投资。其中一小部分属于伯克希尔持股不足100%的子公司所持有。",[101,901,902,918],{},[104,903,904],{},[107,905,906,909,912,915],{},[110,907,908],{},"股份数量",[110,910,911],{},"公司名称",[110,913,914],{},"成本（千美元）",[110,916,917],{},"市值（千美元）",[123,919,920,934,948,962,976],{},[107,921,922,925,928,931],{},[128,923,924],{},"3,000,000",[128,926,927],{},"大都会\u002FABC (Capital Cities\u002FABC, Inc.)",[128,929,930],{},"$ 517,500",[128,932,933],{},"$ 1,692,375",[107,935,936,939,942,945],{},[128,937,938],{},"23,350,000",[128,940,941],{},"可口可乐 (The Coca-Cola Co.)",[128,943,944],{},"1,023,920",[128,946,947],{},"1,803,787",[107,949,950,953,956,959],{},[128,951,952],{},"2,400,000",[128,954,955],{},"房地美优先股 (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp.)",[128,957,958],{},"71,729",[128,960,961],{},"161,100",[107,963,964,967,970,973],{},[128,965,966],{},"6,850,000",[128,968,969],{},"盖可保险 (GEICO Corp.)",[128,971,972],{},"45,713",[128,974,975],{},"1,044,625",[107,977,978,981,984,987],{},[128,979,980],{},"1,727,765",[128,982,983],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company)",[128,985,986],{},"9,731",[128,988,989],{},"486,366",[14,991,992],{},"这份名单与去年完全相同，只有一家公司的持股数量有所变动：我们将可口可乐的持股从1988年底的1,417.25万股增加到了2,335万股。",[14,994,995],{},"这笔可口可乐投资再次证明了你们的董事长对投资机会的反应速度是多么惊人，不管这些机会多么隐蔽或被巧妙伪装。我记得我是在1935年或1936年第一次喝到可口可乐的。可以确定的是，从1936年开始，我以每六罐25美分的价格从巴菲特父子杂货店批发可乐，然后以每罐5美分的价格卖给街坊邻居。在这段高毛利零售的生涯起步阶段，我充分观察到了这种产品对消费者非凡的吸引力以及背后蕴含的巨大商机。",[14,997,998],{},"在接下来的52年里，当可口可乐席卷全球的同时，我也持续注意到这些特质。然而在同一时期，我小心翼翼地避免买入哪怕一股可口可乐的股票，反而将大量个人资产投向了有轨电车公司、风车制造商、无烟煤生产商、纺织企业和印花票发行商之类的股票。（如果你以为我是在编故事，我可以给你一一列出公司名称。）直到1988年的夏天，我的大脑才终于和眼睛建立了联系。",[14,1000,1001],{},"那时我所看到的一切既清晰又迷人。经过1970年代的一段低迷之后，可口可乐在1981年随着罗伯托·郭思达 (Roberto Goizueta) 出任CEO而焕然一新。郭思达和唐·基奥 (Don Keough)——曾是我在奥马哈的对街邻居——首先重新思考并聚焦了公司的战略，然后充满干劲地加以执行。这款已经是全世界最无处不在的产品又获得了新的动力，海外销售近乎爆发式增长。",[14,1003,1004],{},"凭借营销和财务技能的罕见结合，郭思达将产品的增长和这种增长给股东带来的回报都做到了极致。通常，一家消费品公司的CEO会因个人的天性或经验，让营销或财务中的一方主导公司，而牺牲另一方。但在郭思达身上，营销与财务的融合堪称完美，结果就是股东的美梦成真。",[14,1006,1007],{},"当然，我们本应该更早开始买入可口可乐的——在郭思达和唐开始执掌公司的时候就应该买。事实上，如果我当初脑子足够清醒，应该在1936年就说服我爷爷把杂货店卖了，把所有的钱都投到可口可乐的股票上。我已经吸取了教训：我对下一个明摆着具有吸引力的投资机会的反应时间，将缩短到50年以下。",[14,1009,1010,1011,1014],{},"正如我之前提到的，我们主要被投资公司的年末股价相对于其内在价值，已经比以往高出不少。虽然这些价位还不至于让人流鼻血，但它们显然容易受到大盘下跌的冲击。股价下跌对我们丝毫不会造成困扰——事实上最终可能对我们有利——但它",[78,1012,1013],{},"确实","会导致伯克希尔至少在某一年出现净资产下降。我们认为，在未来三年中至少有一年，这种下降几乎是肯定会发生的。实际上，只要我们投资组合的总市值同比下降约10%，就足以使伯克希尔的净资产缩水。",[14,1016,1017],{},"我们继续受惠于投资组合公司的杰出管理者。他们品格高尚、才华横溢且以股东利益为重。我们在投资中取得的非凡成绩，准确地反映了他们非凡的人格特质。",[512,1019,1020],{"id":1020},"短期套利交易",[14,1022,1023],{},"去年我告诉各位，预计1989年在套利方面会减少活动，事实也确实如此。套利投资是短期现金等价物的替代品，一年中有一段时间我们的现金水平相对较低。在其余时间我们虽然有相当规模的现金头寸，但仍然选择不参与套利。主要原因是，最近的企业交易对我们来说在经济上毫无意义；套利这类交易太接近于玩\"博傻游戏\"了。（正如华尔街的雷·德沃伊 (Ray DeVoe) 所说：\"天使不敢踏足之处，傻瓜却蜂拥而至。\"）我们偶尔会从事套利——有时规模还不小——但只有在我们看好赔率的时候。",[512,1025,1026],{"id":1026},"固定收益证券",[14,1028,1029],{},"除了下一节讨论的三项可转换优先股之外，我们大幅减持了中期和长期固定收益证券。在长期债券方面，我们几乎唯一的持仓就是华盛顿公用电力系统 (WPPSS) 债券，票面利率从低到高不等。年内我们出售了一批低息债券，这些债券最初是以很大的折价买入的。其中许多债券的售价大约是买入价的两倍，而且还在持有期间每年为我们贡献了15%到17%的免税利息收入。我们的出售价格仅略低于当时典型的高等级免税债券价格。我们保留了所有高息WPPSS债券。部分将在1991年和1992年被赎回，我们预计其余的将在1990年代中前期被赎回。",[14,1031,1032],{},"年内我们还出售了大量中期免税债券。当初买入这些债券时我们就说过，只要有更好的投资出现，我们很乐意将其卖出——不管届时价格是高于还是低于买入价。更好的机会确实出现了——于是我们同时以小幅获利出清了大部分债券。总体而言，1989年出售免税债券的税前收益约为5,100万美元。",[512,1034,1035],{"id":1035},"可转换优先股",[14,1037,1038],{},"我们出售债券所得的收入，加上年初的多余现金以及此后通过经营产生的收益，全部投入了三笔可转换优先股。第一笔交易发生在七月，我们以6亿美元购入吉列公司 (The Gillette Co.) 优先股，年息8.75%，十年强制赎回，有权以每股50美元的价格转换为普通股。之后我们以3.58亿美元购入全美航空集团 (USAir Group, Inc.) 优先股，十年强制赎回，年息9.25%，有权以每股60美元的价格转换为普通股。最后在年底，我们以3亿美元购入冠军国际公司 (Champion International Corp.) 优先股，十年强制赎回，年息9.25%，有权以每股38美元的价格转换为普通股。",[14,1040,1041],{},"与标准的可转换优先股不同，我们持有的这些优先股在相当长的时间内要么不可出售、要么不可转换，因此我们无法从普通股的短期价格波动中获利。我已经加入了吉列的董事会，但没有加入全美航空或冠军国际的董事会。（我非常享受目前参加的那些董事会，但实在分身乏术了。）",[14,1043,1044],{},"吉列的业务非常符合我们喜欢的类型。查理和我认为我们理解这家公司的经济运作规律，因此相信能对其未来做出一个还算靠谱的判断。（如果你还没试过吉列新出的锋速 (Sensor) 剃须刀，赶紧去买一个！）然而，我们没有能力预测投资银行业（通过1987年购入的所罗门 (Salomon) 可转换优先股，我们在这个行业有一个头寸）、航空业或造纸业的经济前景。这并不意味着我们对这些行业的未来持悲观态度：我们是不可知论者，不是无神论者。不过，由于我们对这些业务缺乏坚定的信念，因此在这些业务上的投资结构必须与那些明显具有优异经济特质的企业有所不同。",[14,1046,1047],{},"然而在一个重要方面，这些投资与其他没有区别：我们只想与我们喜欢、欣赏和信任的人打交道。所罗门的约翰·古特弗伦德 (John Gutfreund)、吉列的科尔曼·莫克勒 (Colman Mockler, Jr.)、全美航空的艾德·科洛德尼 (Ed Colodny) 和冠军国际的安迪·西格勒 (Andy Sigler) 完全符合这一标准。",[14,1049,1050,1051,1054,1055,1057],{},"他们反过来也展现了对我们的信任，在每一笔交易中都坚持让我们的优先股拥有按完全转换基础计算的不受限制的投票权，这在美国的企业融资中远非惯例。实际上，他们信任我们是聪明的所有者，着眼于",[78,1052,1053],{},"未来","而非当下，正如我们信任他们是聪明的管理者，既关注",[78,1056,1053],{},"也兼顾当下。",[14,1059,1060],{},"如果行业经济状况拖累了我们被投资公司的业绩，我们谈判达成的优先股结构将为我们提供一般性的回报；但如果它们能够获得与美国工业平均水平相当的回报，我们的结果将是相当不错的。我们相信，在科尔曼的领导下，吉列将远远超出这一水平；我们也相信约翰、艾德和安迪除非面临极为恶劣的行业环境，否则也能达到这一水平。",[14,1062,1063],{},"在几乎任何条件下，我们都预期这些优先股能让我们收回本金加股息。但如果我们得到的仅此而已，结果将令人失望，因为我们牺牲了流动性，从而在未来十年必然会出现的一些重大机会面前束手无策。在那种情况下，我们只获得了优先股的收益率，而在这段时期内一般的优先股对我们毫无吸引力。伯克希尔从这四项优先股投资中获得满意回报的唯一途径，是被投资公司的普通股也要有出色的表现。",[14,1065,1066],{},"这需要好的管理层再加上至少可以接受的行业环境。但我们相信伯克希尔的投资也会有所帮助，每家被投资公司的其他股东在未来几年都将从我们的优先股投资中受益。这种帮助来自于一个事实：每家公司现在都有了一个重要的、稳定的、真正关心公司的大股东，而其董事长和副董事长通过伯克希尔的投资，已经间接地将自己的大量个人资金投入了这些事业。在与被投资公司打交道时，查理和我将给予支持、提供分析、保持客观。我们知道我们面对的是经验丰富且充分掌控自己业务的CEO，但我想在某些时刻，他们也会珍惜能与一些与其行业或过去的决策毫无瓜葛的人交换意见的机会。",[14,1068,1069],{},"作为一个整体，这些可转换优先股的回报不会达到我们发现一家经济前景绝佳但被市场低估的企业时所能获得的水平。其回报也不如我们最偏爱的资本配置方式——收购一家拥有优秀管理层的好企业80%以上的股权。但这两种机会都很稀少，尤其是考虑到我们目前和预期的资金规模。",[14,1071,1072],{},"总而言之，查理和我认为这些可转换优先股投资应该能产出适度高于大多数固定收益投资组合的回报，同时我们还能在被投资公司中扮演一个虽不显眼但令人愉快且有建设性的角色。",[10,1074,1075],{"id":1075},"零息债券",[14,1077,1078],{},"去年九月，伯克希尔发行了本金为9.026亿美元的零息可转换次级债券，目前已在纽约证券交易所挂牌交易。所罗门兄弟公司 (Salomon Brothers) 出色地承销了这次发行，为我们提供了宝贵的建议和完美无瑕的执行。",[14,1080,1081],{},"大多数债券当然要定期支付利息，通常是每半年一次。零息债券则相反，不需要当期支付利息；投资者通过以大幅低于到期面值的价格购买债券来获得收益。实际利率由发行价、到期面值以及发行到到期的时间长度决定。",[14,1083,1084],{},"以我们这次发行为例，债券的发行价是到期面值的44.314%，期限15年。对于购买这些债券的投资者，这在数学上等同于5.5%的年利率按半年复利计算。因为我们只收到每一美元面值的44.31美分，扣除约950万美元的发行费用后，这次发行的实际到手款项约为4亿美元。",[14,1086,1087],{},"债券的面额为1万美元，每张债券可转换为0.4515股伯克希尔股票。由于1万美元的债券售价为4,431美元，这意味着转换价格约为每股9,815美元，比当时的市价溢价15%。伯克希尔有权在1992年9月28日之后随时以增值后的价格（原始发行价加上5.5%半年复利）赎回债券；在1994年和1999年的9月28日这两个特定日期，债券持有人也有权要求伯克希尔按增值后的价格赎回其所持有的债券。",[14,1089,1090],{},"在税务方面，尽管我们实际上不向债券持有人支付任何利息，伯克希尔每年仍有权扣除5.5%的应计利息。因此，由于税负减少，对我们而言净效果是正的现金流入。这是一个很大的好处。一些不可知的变量使我们无法精确计算实际的融资成本，但在任何情况下都会远低于5.5%。同时，税法是对称的：任何应税的债券持有人每年都必须为5.5%的利息缴税，即使他实际上没有收到一分钱的现金。",[14,1092,1093],{},"我们发行的债券，以及去年其他一些公司发行的类似债券（特别是洛斯公司 (Loews) 和摩托罗拉 (Motorola)），与近年来大量发行的那些零息债券有本质的不同。对于后者，查理和我一直是——将来也会继续是——直言不讳的批评者。正如我后面将要解释的，这类债券往往被用于最具欺骗性的方式，给投资者带来致命的后果。但在我们讨论这个话题之前，先让我们回到伊甸园，回到苹果还没有被咬下的时代。",[14,1095,1096],{},"如果你跟我年纪差不多，你的第一批零息债券是在二战期间买的，就是那大名鼎鼎的E系列美国储蓄债券——历史上发行量最大的债券。（战后，每两个美国家庭中就有一个持有。）当然，当时没有人会称E系列为\"零息债券\"——这个词当时大概还没被发明出来。但E系列本质上就是零息债券。",[14,1098,1099],{},"这种债券的最小面额只有18.75美元。花这个钱就能买到一份10年后由美国政府偿付25美元的债务凭证，这给买家提供了2.9%的年复合收益率。在那个年代，这是一个相当诱人的条件：2.9%的利率高于一般政府债券的利率，而且持有人不必承担市场波动风险，因为他可以随时赎回，利息只会略有折减。",[14,1101,1102],{},"第二种形式的零息美国国债也是有益而无害的，出现在约十年前。普通债券有一个问题：即使它的票面利率是比如说10%，持有人也无法保证最终能实现10%的复合回报率。要达到这个收益率，每半年收到的利息都必须按10%再投资出去。如果利息到手时的市场利率只有6%或7%，持有人在债券存续期内的实际复合回报率就无法达到票面宣传的水平。对于退休基金或其他有长期负债的投资者来说，这种\"再投资风险\"可能是一个非常严重的问题。储蓄债券本可以解决这个问题，只可惜它只面向个人发行，且面额不大。大买家们需要的是大批量的\"储蓄债券替代品\"。",[14,1104,1105],{},"于是，一些聪明的投资银行家登场了——在这件事上他们确实是有益的。（我很高兴地告诉大家，领头的正是所罗门兄弟公司。）他们从标准的政府债券中\"剥离\"出每半年的付息凭证，创造出大买家们想要的工具。每一张被剥离的付息凭证一旦脱离母券，就具有了储蓄债券的本质特征，因为它代表着未来某一时点的一笔单一款项。例如，如果你从一张2010年到期的美国政府债券上剥离出40张半年付息凭证，就能得到40张零息债券，到期日从半年到20年不等，然后可以将到期日相同的凭证打包出售。假设所有期限的当前利率都是10%，半年期的售价约为面值的95.24%，20年期的则只有14.20%。任何买入特定期限的投资者都能保证在整个持有期内获得10%的复合收益率。近年来，政府债券的剥离已大规模进行，因为从退休基金到个人退休账户 (IRA) 的各类长期投资者都认识到，这些高等级零息债券非常适合他们的需求。",[14,1107,1108],{},"但正如华尔街屡屡上演的那样，聪明人开创的事业，到最后总是由傻瓜来收尾。最近几年，零息债券（以及功能相似的实物支付债券(PIK)——每半年以发行更多债券的方式代替支付现金利息）已经被越来越差的债信发行人大量采用。对于这些发行人来说，零息（或PIK）债券有一个压倒性的优势：你不可能在一个承诺什么都不付的合约上违约。事实上，如果最不发达国家的政府在1970年代只发行长期零息债券而不发其他债务，到现在它们的信用记录将一尘不染。",[14,1110,1111,1112,1115],{},"这条原理——只要你郑重承诺长期内什么都不付，你就能长期不违约——精明的推手和投资银行家们当然不会忽视，他们正好借此为越来越不靠谱的交易提供融资。不过，贷款人花了一段时间才接受这套做法：当杠杆收购热潮在几年前刚开始的时候，收购方只能在相对稳健的基础上借款，即保守估计的",[78,1113,1114],{},"自由","现金流——经营收益加上折旧摊销减去正常化的资本支出——足以覆盖利息和适度的本金偿还。",[14,1117,1118],{},"后来，随着交易撮合者的肾上腺素飙升，企业开始以如此之高的价格被收购，以至于所有的自由现金流都必须用来支付利息，根本没有余力偿还本金。实际上，借款人和新一代贷款人——原始发行垃圾债券的买家——对待本金偿还的态度变成了《乱世佳人》中郝思嘉 (Scarlett O'Hara) 的那句名言：\"明天再说吧。\"债务从此变成了只需再融资而无需偿还的东西。这种转变让我想起《纽约客》(New Yorker) 上的一幅漫画：一位感激涕零的借款人站起来握着银行信贷经理的手，热泪盈眶地说：\"我真不知道该怎么报答你。\"",[14,1120,1121],{},"很快，借款人们发现即使是这种新的宽松标准也让他们觉得束缚太紧。为了诱使金主为更加荒唐的交易提供资金，他们引入了一个令人憎恶的新指标：EBDIT——即\"息税折旧摊销前利润\"——作为衡量公司偿债能力的标准。用这把削短了的尺子，借款人以折旧不需要当前现金支出为由，将其排除在费用之外。",[14,1123,1124],{},"这种态度明摆着是自欺欺人。95%的美国企业，长期而言大致与累积折旧相当的资本支出是必不可少的，其花费的每一分钱都像劳动力成本或水电费用一样真实。即使是一个中学辍学生也知道，养一辆车不仅要负担利息和日常开支，还必须实实在在地考虑折旧。如果他跑到银行去拿EBDIT那一套说辞，保证会被一脚踢出来。",[14,1126,1127],{},"当然，在任何一个月份，企业可以暂时不做资本支出，就像一个人可以一天甚至一个礼拜不吃东西。但如果这种\"节食\"成为常态且不加补偿，身体就会虚弱，最终死亡。此外，一种时断时续的进食方式，长期来看会比稳定的饮食习惯产出一个更不健康的有机体——不管是人体还是企业都是如此。作为生意人，查理跟我最喜欢看到的就是竞争对手连资本支出的钱都拿不出来。",[14,1129,1130],{},"你或许以为，将折旧这样一笔重大费用挥手抹去，把一桩烂交易粉饰成好交易，这大概已经是华尔街聪明才智的极限了。如果你这么想，那你肯定没有关注过去这几年的发展。推手们需要找到方法来为更加离谱的收购价格辩护。否则他们就面临着——天哪！——被其他更有\"想象力\"的推手抢走生意的风险。",[14,1132,1133,1134,1137],{},"于是，穿过镜子走进仙境之后，推手们和他们的投资银行家宣布：EBDIT现在应该只跟",[78,1135,1136],{},"现金","利息做比较，这意味着在评估一项交易的财务可行性时，零息债券或PIK债券的应计利息可以完全忽略。这种做法不仅把折旧费用打入了\"视而不见\"的冷宫，还对通常占利息费用很大比重的一块给予了同样的待遇。可耻的是，许多专业投资管理人居然也跟着附和这种荒谬做法，当然他们通常很小心——只用客户的钱，绝不用自己的。（称这些人为\"专业人士\"实在太客气了；他们应该被叫做\"抬轿人\"。）",[14,1139,1140],{},"在这种新标准之下，假设一家公司的税前利润为1亿美元，有9,000万美元的利息需要当期现金支付，它还可以利用零息债券或PIK债券再背上每年6,000万美元的应计利息——这些利息会不断累积复利，但好几年内都不需要真金白银地支付。这类债券的利率通常非常高，这意味着到了第二年，就变成了9,000万美元的现金利息加上6,900万美元的应计利息，然后利滚利越滚越大。这种高利率的借新还旧把戏，几年前还只限于\"黑市\"，很快就成了几乎所有大型投资银行推荐给客户的标准融资模板。",[14,1142,1143],{},"当投资银行家推销这些融资产品时，他们展现了自己幽默的一面：他们为几个月前还闻所未闻的公司提供长达五年甚至更久的利润和资产负债表预测。如果有人拿这种预测给你看，我建议你也加入这场游戏：问问这位投资银行家，他们自己公司过去几年年初做的年度预算是什么样的，然后拿来跟实际结果对比一下。",[14,1145,1146,1147,1150],{},"很久以前，约翰·加尔布雷斯 (Ken Galbraith) 在他那本机智而深刻的《1929年大崩盘》(",[78,1148,1149],{},"The Great Crash",") 中创造了一个新的经济术语：\"黑金\"(bezzle)，定义为当前尚未被发现的贪污舞弊总额。这种金融产物有一种神奇的特质：贪污者因黑金而变得更富，而被贪污者却浑然不觉自己变穷了。",[14,1152,1153,1154,1157],{},"加尔布雷斯教授敏锐地指出，这笔钱应该被加入国民财富之中，这样我们才能知道\"心理上的国民财富\"到底有多少。按照这个逻辑，一个想要",[78,1155,1156],{},"感觉","自己无比繁荣的社会，应该鼓励公民大力贪污舞弊，同时尽量不去揭发。通过这种方式，\"财富\"可以大幅增长，尽管实际上没有一丁点有生产力的工作被完成。",[14,1159,1160],{},"黑金这种充满讽刺荒诞感的东西，与现实世界中零息债券的荒诞相比，简直是小巫见大巫。利用零息债券，合同的一方可以享受\"收入\"，而另一方却不必承受付钱的痛苦。在我们前面的例子中，一家每年只能赚1亿美元的公司——因此实际上也只有能力支付这么多利息——却魔术般地为债券持有人创造出了1.5亿美元的\"收益\"。只要大型投资者愿意戴上彼得潘的翅膀，反复念叨\"我相信\"，零息债券所能创造的\"收入\"就没有上限。",[14,1162,1163],{},"华尔街以一种热情拥抱了这项发明——这种热情，不那么\"开明\"的人恐怕会留给轮子或犁这样的东西。终于有了一种工具，能让华尔街以不再受实际盈利能力制约的价格做交易了。结果显而易见，交易量会更多：离谱的价格从来不愁没有卖家愿意出手。正如杰西·昂鲁 (Jesse Unruh) 可能会说的，交易就是金融世界的母乳。",[14,1165,1166],{},"零息或PIK债券还有一个额外的吸引力让推手和投资银行家爱不释手，那就是从愚蠢到失败之间的时间可以被大大拉长。这可不是一个小好处。如果在所有成本都必须面对之前还有很长一段缓冲期，推手们就可以创造出一连串愚蠢的交易——大把赚取手续费——等到早期交易的恶果反噬时，他们早已赚够了。",[14,1168,1169],{},"但到最后，炼金术——不管是冶金的还是金融的——终归会失败。一个烂公司不可能仅凭会计花招或资本结构的把戏就摇身变成好公司。那个自称金融炼金术士的人或许会发大财。但让他致富的是容易上当的投资者，而不是企业的经营成就。",[14,1171,1172],{},"不管这些债券有多少缺点，我们还是得承认，许多零息和PIK债券并不会违约。事实上我们自己也持有过一些，如果市场变得更加低迷，我们可能还会买入更多。（当然，我们从未考虑过购买那些新发行的、债信很差的垃圾债券。）任何金融工具本身并非邪恶；只不过某些变种比其他的更容易被用来干坏事罢了。",[14,1174,1175,1176,1179],{},"\"作恶冠军\"的头衔应该颁给那些无力按时支付利息的零息债券发行人。我们的建议是：每当有投资银行家开始提EBDIT——或者每当有人设计的资本结构不允许用当期现金流（",[78,1177,1178],{},"扣除充足的资本支出之后","的净额）来舒舒服服地覆盖所有利息（包括应付的和应计的）——赶紧捂好你的钱包。反将他一军，建议推手和他那一帮子收费昂贵的随从也接受零息佣金吧，等零息债券全部兑付之后再让他们拿钱。然后看看他们对这笔交易的热情还能维持多久。",[14,1181,1182],{},"我们对投资银行家的批评可能听起来有些尖刻。但查理和我——用我们那无可救药的老派方式——认为他们应该扮演好守门人的角色，保护投资者免受推手过度贪婪的侵害。毕竟，推手们在接受金钱方面所表现出的自制力和判断力，跟酗酒者面对美酒时一模一样。因此，投资银行家至少应该达到一个负责任的酒保的道德水准——在必要时，宁可少赚一杯酒钱，也不能把一个醉汉送上高速公路。不幸的是，近年来许多知名投行已经觉得酒保的道德标准是一种无法忍受的约束了。最近走在华尔街的正道上，你会发现路上没几个人。",[14,1184,1185],{},"最后还有一个令人痛心的注脚：零息债券的愚蠢代价并不仅仅由直接参与者承担。某些储贷协会 (S&L) 是这类债券的大买家，用的是受FSLIC（联邦储贷保险公司）担保的存款。为了让报告收益数字漂亮，这些机构把那些超高利息收入统统记入账中——尽管实际上一分钱现金都没收到。许多这样的机构现在已经陷入了严重的困境。如果它们借给那些信用堪忧的借款人的钱还得上，机构的所有者就赚走了利润。而在大量还不上的情况下——实际上确实还不上——最终买单的是纳税人。套用杰基·梅森 (Jackie Mason，美国喜剧演员) 的话来说，在这些机构里，应该戴上滑雪面罩的是那些经理人才对。",[10,1187,1189],{"id":1188},"过去25年所犯的错误浓缩版","过去25年所犯的错误（浓缩版）",[14,1191,1192],{},"套用罗伯特·本奇利 (Robert Benchley) 的名言：\"养狗能教会男孩忠诚、坚毅，以及在躺下之前先转三圈。\"经验的局限性大致如此。尽管如此，在犯下新错误之前，先回顾一下旧错误总是好的。所以让我们快速回顾一下过去25年。",[512,1194,1195],{"id":1195},"廉价买入",[14,1197,1198],{},"我犯的第一个错误，当然就是买下了伯克希尔的控制权。虽然我明知它的业务——纺织制造——毫无前景，但还是因为价格看起来便宜而忍不住出手。这类股票投资在我早期确实获利颇丰，但到1965年伯克希尔出现的时候，我已经开始意识到这种策略并不理想。",[14,1200,1201],{},"如果你以足够低的价格买入一只股票，通常会在公司经营中出现某个小阳春，给你一个以不错的利润出手的机会，即使这家公司的长期表现可能很糟糕。我称这为\"烟蒂\"投资法。在路边捡到的烟蒂头可能只剩最后一口，抽不了多少过瘾的，但\"廉价买入\"让这最后一口也全是利润。",[14,1203,1204],{},"除非你是清算专家，这种买企业的方式实在是愚蠢至极。第一，最初看起来的\"便宜\"价格到最后可能一点都不便宜。在一个经营艰难的企业中，一个问题刚解决另一个就冒出来——厨房里绝不会只有一只蟑螂。第二，你最初获得的价差优势会很快被企业低下的盈利能力所侵蚀。例如，你以800万美元买下一家清算价值为1,000万美元的企业，如果你能迅速将其出售或清算，回报率会很可观。但如果这家公司拖了十年才能以1,000万美元卖出，而期间每年只能分配一点微薄的收益，那这笔投资就让人大失所望了。时间是好公司的朋友，却是烂公司最大的敌人。",[14,1206,1207],{},"你也许觉得这个道理再浅显不过了，但我却得付出沉痛的代价才真正学到——实际上还不止学了一次。买下伯克希尔后不久，我又买了巴尔的摩的一家百货公司科恩百货 (Hochschild Kohn)，是通过一家后来与伯克希尔合并的多元零售公司 (Diversified Retailing) 买的。我以远低于账面价值的价格入手，管理层也是一流的，交易还附带一些额外好处——未入账的房地产增值和可观的后进先出法库存缓冲。这我怎么可能看走眼呢？结——果——三年后我算走运，好歹以差不多买入的价格把它卖掉了。结束了与科恩百货的\"商业婚姻\"之后，我的心情就像那首乡村歌曲里唱的丈夫一样：\"我老婆跟我最好的朋友私奔了，我到现在还挺想他的。\"",[14,1209,1210],{},"我还可以给大家举出更多\"廉价买入\"的愚蠢案例，但我相信你已经明白了：以合理的价格买入一家好公司，远远好过以便宜的价格买入一家普通的公司。查理很早就明白这个道理；我的反应比较迟钝。但现在不管是买企业还是买股票，我们都只找一流的公司配上一流的管理层。",[512,1212,1213],{"id":1213},"好骑师配好马",[14,1215,1216],{},"这就引出了一个相关的教训：好骑师在好马上才能跑出好成绩，骑上劣马就不行了。伯克希尔的纺织业务和科恩百货都有能干而诚实的人在经营。如果同样的管理者在一家经济特质良好的企业里，他们一定能取得优异的成绩。但在流沙中奔跑，任谁也跑不出速度来。",[14,1218,1219],{},"我说过很多次：当一个声名卓著的管理层遇上一个声名狼藉的行业，最后屹立不倒的是行业的名声。我只是希望自己当初不要那么卖力地创造案例来证明这一点。我过去的行为就像梅·韦斯特 (Mae West) 坦承的那样：\"我曾是白雪公主，不过后来我迷了路。\"",[512,1221,1222],{"id":1222},"跨一尺的栏",[14,1224,1225,1226,1229],{},"另一个相关的教训：捡容易的做。25年来买下并管理了各种各样的企业之后，查理和我",[78,1227,1228],{},"仍然","没有学会如何解决棘手的商业难题。但我们学会了一件事——避开它们。在一定程度上，我们之所以能成功，是因为我们专注于寻找能够轻松迈过的一尺高的跨栏，而不是因为我们练就了跨越七尺栏杆的本事。",[14,1231,1232],{},"这个发现似乎有失公平，但不管在商业还是投资领域，简单地坚持做那些容易且显而易见的事情，往往比努力解决难题要赚钱得多。当然，有时候你不得不啃硬骨头，就像我们当初在布法罗创办周日版报纸那样。在其他情况下，当一家优秀的企业遭遇一次性的重大但可解决的难题时——就像多年前美国运通 (American Express) 和盖可保险 (GEICO) 都经历过的那样——绝佳的投资机会就出现了。但总体而言，我们靠躲避恶龙取得的成绩，远比屠龙要好得多。",[512,1234,1235],{"id":1235},"制度迫力",[14,1237,1238],{},"我最意外的发现是：在商业中有一股看不见的力量起着压倒性的作用，我们不妨称之为\"制度迫力\"(the institutional imperative)。在商学院里没有人告诉我这种力量的存在，进入商业世界后我也没有凭直觉意识到它。我当时以为，正派、聪明且经验丰富的管理者自然而然会做出理性的商业决策。但随着时间推移我发现并非如此。相反，当制度迫力发挥作用时，理性往往会枯萎。",[14,1240,1241],{},"举例来说：(1) 如同受牛顿第一运动定律支配，一个组织会抵抗对其现行方向的任何改变；(2) 正如工作会膨胀到填满所有可用时间一样，企业的项目或收购计划总会出现来花光可用的资金；(3) 不管领导者有什么商业欲望，哪怕再愚蠢，他的团队都会迅速拿出详尽的回报率分析和战略研究来为其背书；(4) 同行公司的行为——不管是扩张、收购还是设定高管薪酬等等——都会被盲目模仿。",[14,1243,1244],{},"推动企业走上这些往往是错误道路的，是制度迫力，而非贪腐或愚蠢。在因为忽视这种力量而犯下一些代价高昂的错误之后，我一直在尝试以尽量降低其影响的方式来组织和管理伯克希尔。同时，查理和我也努力将投资集中在那些对这个问题有高度警觉的公司上。",[512,1246,1247],{"id":1247},"与品质令人钦佩的人共事",[14,1249,1250],{},"在犯了其他一些错误之后，我学会了只跟我们喜欢、信任和钦佩的人做生意。正如我前面说过的，这项原则本身并不能保证成功：一家二流的纺织公司或百货公司不会仅仅因为管理者是你愿意把女儿嫁给他的那种人就能兴旺发达。但是，一个企业所有者——或投资者——如果能与这样的人在经济特质良好的企业中联手，就能创造奇迹。反过来，无论一家公司的前景多么诱人，我们都不愿与缺乏令人钦佩品质的管理者为伍。跟坏人做生意永远不会有好结果。",[512,1252,1253],{"id":1253},"错过绝佳机会",[14,1255,1256],{},"我犯过的一些最严重的错误是不为人知的。那些是我本已认识到其价值却最终未能出手的股票和企业收购。错过自己能力圈以外的大好机会并没有什么罪过。但有几次天大的好机会简直是送到了我嘴边，而且我完全有能力理解其价值，却还是错过了。对于伯克希尔的股东——当然包括我自己——这种犹豫不决（查理·芒格称之为\"吮手指\"）造成的损失是巨大的。",[512,1258,1259],{"id":1259},"财务杠杆",[14,1261,1262],{},"我们一贯保守的财务政策看起来可能是一个错误，但我认为并非如此。回顾起来很明显，适度提高杠杆率——虽然按常规标准仍然是保守的——确实能为伯克希尔创造比我们实际的23.8%高得多的股本回报率。即使在1965年，我们大概也可以判断有99%的概率更高的杠杆只会带来好处。相应地，也许只有1%的概率某个内部或外部的冲击因素会让常规的负债比率产生从暂时的痛苦到真正的违约之间的某种结果。",[14,1264,1265],{},"我们不喜欢99：1的赔率——永远不会喜欢。在我们看来，一个小概率的挫折或耻辱，永远无法被高概率的额外回报所弥补。如果你的行为是明智的，你肯定能获得好的结果；在大多数情况下，杠杆只是让事情走得更快而已。查理跟我从不急于求成：我们享受过程的快乐更甚于收获——当然，收获来了我们也学会了欣然接受。",[14,1267,1268],{},"两年前，我跟大家提过哈里·鲍特 (Harry Bottle) 这个人。他在1962年迅速解决了我控制的第一家工业企业——邓普斯特风车制造公司 (Dempster Mill Manufacturing)（我的一笔\"便宜货\"投资）的一个大难题。24年后他又重出江湖来拯救我，这次是伯克希尔旗下一家生产汽车化合物的小子公司K&W Products出了问题。正如我当时报告的，哈里在很短的时间内减少了K&W的资金占用，合理化了生产流程，大幅削减了成本，利润翻了四倍。你也许以为他该歇口气了吧。但去年已经70岁的哈里参加了一场破产拍卖，以微不足道的价格收购了一条与K&W完美契合的产品线。这一妙手可能使公司的盈利能力提高50%。请大家拭目以待，这个专属于哈里的\"战绩栏\"。",[14,1270,1271],{},"去年夏天，我们卖掉了三年前以85万美元购买的公司专机，另外花了670万美元买了一架二手喷气飞机。还记得前面我说过的细菌繁殖数学题的读者，一定会感到恐慌：如果我们的净资产继续以目前的速度增长，而更换飞机的成本也继续以目前每年100%的复合速度上涨，用不了多久，伯克希尔全部的净资产都会被这架飞机吞噬掉。",[14,1273,1274],{},"查理不喜欢我把飞机跟细菌相提并论；他觉得这是对细菌的侮辱。他心目中的时尚出行方式是坐有空调的大巴——而且只有在票价打折时才会奢侈一把。至于我个人对这架飞机的态度，最好用圣奥古斯丁 (St. Augustine) 在考虑放弃世俗享乐出家为教士时的那段祈祷来概括。在理智与欲望的天人交战中，他恳求道：\"主啊，帮助我成为一个圣洁的人——但不是现在。\"（当然，这段祈祷据说是杜撰的。）",[14,1276,1277],{},"给这架飞机起名可不是一件容易的事。我一开始建议叫\"查理·T·芒格号\"。查理反击说应该叫\"神经失常号\"。最后双方妥协，决定叫它\"无可辩解号\"(The Indefensible)。",[14,1279,1280],{},"今年的股东大会将于1990年4月30日星期一上午9:30举行。去年的出席人数增长到约1,000人，几乎达到了乔瑟林博物馆 (Joslyn Museum) 威瑟斯庞厅 (Witherspoon Hall) 的座位上限。所以今年的会议将移至奥马哈市中心的奥芬剧院 (Orpheum Theatre)，距红狮酒店 (Red Lion Hotel) 大约四分之一英里。对街有一家规模较小但很不错的酒店——拉迪森-雷迪克大厦 (Radisson-Redick Tower)。你也可以选择住在奥马哈西区的万豪酒店 (Marriott)，离波仙珠宝店只有100码。万豪酒店将安排巴士在8:30和8:45出发前往会场，会后送大家返回。",[14,1282,1283],{},"查理和我一直很享受股东大会，希望大家都能来参加。我们股东的素质从提问的质量就可以看出来：我们从未在任何一家公司的股东大会上见过如此持续高水平的、充满智慧的、与股东利益相关的问题。",[14,1285,1286],{},"随附的代理材料中说明了如何获取参加大会所需的入场证。由于工作日在奥芬剧院附近停车可能比较紧张，我们已经为股东预留了附近的几个停车场，附件中也有相关信息。",[14,1288,1289],{},"一如往常，会后我们会安排巴士送大家去内布拉斯加家具店和波仙珠宝店，之后再送大家到市中心的酒店或机场。希望大家能留出充裕的时间好好探索这两家店的魅力。提前到达的股东工作日也可以参观家具店；周六营业时间为上午10点至下午5:30，周日为中午12点至下午5:30。",[14,1291,1292],{},"波仙珠宝店通常周日不营业，但在4月29日周日将为股东和来宾特别开放，时间为中午12点至下午6点。艾克喜欢办大场面，大家可以指望他为我们的股东准备一些特别的东西。",[14,1294,1295],{},"在这封信里我们提了很多关于复利的话题。如果你能忍受个人净值暂时倒退一天——我承认这个念头不太美好——记得在29号去看看艾克的展示吧！",[14,1297,1298],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1300,1301],{},"董事长",[14,1303,1304],{},"1990年3月2日",{"title":1306,"searchDepth":1307,"depth":1307,"links":1308},"",2,[1309,1310,1311,1312,1313,1314,1315,1316,1317,1318,1319,1320,1321,1322,1323,1324,1325],{"id":514,"depth":1307,"text":514},{"id":290,"depth":1307,"text":290},{"id":256,"depth":1307,"text":256},{"id":205,"depth":1307,"text":205},{"id":222,"depth":1307,"text":222},{"id":273,"depth":1307,"text":273},{"id":896,"depth":1307,"text":896},{"id":1020,"depth":1307,"text":1020},{"id":1026,"depth":1307,"text":1026},{"id":1035,"depth":1307,"text":1035},{"id":1195,"depth":1307,"text":1195},{"id":1213,"depth":1307,"text":1213},{"id":1222,"depth":1307,"text":1222},{"id":1235,"depth":1307,"text":1235},{"id":1247,"depth":1307,"text":1247},{"id":1253,"depth":1307,"text":1253},{"id":1259,"depth":1307,"text":1259},"致股东信",null,"1989年巴菲特致股东信，讨论经济衰退影响、可口可乐投资成功及股东权益回报率","md",{},true,60,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1328},"1989 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","uhLVi6L-VDzf-3VXm0lQX8MPZPzQYFpUIR6zODtvTIs","buffett",[1341,1345,1349,1353,1356,1359,1362,1366,1369,1372,1376,1379,1382,1386,1389,1392,1396,1399,1402,1406,1409,1412,1416,1419,1422,1426,1429,1432,1436,1439,1442,1446,1449,1452,1456,1459,1462,1466,1469,1472,1476,1479,1482,1486,1489,1492,1496,1499,1502,1506,1509,1512,1516,1519,1522,1526,1529,1532,1536,1539,1542,1546,1549,1552,1556,1559,1562,1566,1569,1572,1576,1579,1582,1586,1589,1592,1596,1599,1602,1606,1609,1612,1616,1619,1622,1626,1629,1632,1636,1639,1642,1646,1649,1652,1656,1659,1662,1666,1669,1672,1676,1679,1683,1686,1690,1693,1697,1700,1704,1707,1711,1714,1718,1721,1725,1728,1732,1735,1739,1742,1746,1749,1753,1756,1760,1763,1767,1770,1774,1777,1781,1784,1788,1791,1795,1798,1802,1805,1809,1812,1816,1819,1823,1826,1830,1833,1837,1840,1844,1847,1851,1854,1855,1858,1862,1865,1869,1872,1876,1879,1883,1886,1890,1893,1897,1900,1904,1907,1911,1914,1918,1921,1925,1928,1932,1935,1939,1942,1946,1949,1953,1956,1960,1963,1967,1970,1974,1977,1981,1984,1988,1991,1995,1998,2002,2005,2009,2012,2016,2019,2023,2026,2030,2033,2037,2040,2044,2047,2051,2054,2058,2061,2065,2068,2072,2075,2079,2082,2086,2089,2093,2096,2100,2103,2107,2110,2114,2117,2121,2124,2128,2131,2135,2138,2142,2146,2150,2154,2158,2162,2166,2170,2174,2178,2182,2186,2190,2194,2198,2202,2206,2210,2214,2218,2222,2226,2230,2234,2238,2242,2246,2250,2254,2258,2262,2266,2270,2274,2278,2282,2286,2290,2294,2298,2302,2306,2310,2314,2318,2322,2326,2330,2334,2338],{"title":1342,"slug":1343,"category":1326,"order":1344},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1346,"slug":1347,"category":1348,"order":1344},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1350,"slug":1351,"category":1352,"order":1344},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1354,"slug":1355,"category":1326,"order":1307},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1357,"slug":1358,"category":1348,"order":1307},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1360,"slug":1361,"category":1352,"order":1307},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1363,"slug":1364,"category":1326,"order":1365},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1367,"slug":1368,"category":1348,"order":1365},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1370,"slug":1371,"category":1352,"order":1365},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1373,"slug":1374,"category":1326,"order":1375},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1377,"slug":1378,"category":1348,"order":1375},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1380,"slug":1381,"category":1352,"order":1375},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1383,"slug":1384,"category":1326,"order":1385},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1387,"slug":1388,"category":1348,"order":1385},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1390,"slug":1391,"category":1352,"order":1385},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1393,"slug":1394,"category":1326,"order":1395},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1397,"slug":1398,"category":1348,"order":1395},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1400,"slug":1401,"category":1352,"order":1395},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1403,"slug":1404,"category":1326,"order":1405},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1407,"slug":1408,"category":1348,"order":1405},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1410,"slug":1411,"category":1352,"order":1405},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1413,"slug":1414,"category":1326,"order":1415},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1417,"slug":1418,"category":1348,"order":1415},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1420,"slug":1421,"category":1352,"order":1415},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1423,"slug":1424,"category":1326,"order":1425},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1427,"slug":1428,"category":1348,"order":1425},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1430,"slug":1431,"category":1352,"order":1425},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1433,"slug":1434,"category":1326,"order":1435},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1437,"slug":1438,"category":1348,"order":1435},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1440,"slug":1441,"category":1352,"order":1435},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1443,"slug":1444,"category":1326,"order":1445},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1447,"slug":1448,"category":1348,"order":1445},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1450,"slug":1451,"category":1352,"order":1445},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1453,"slug":1454,"category":1326,"order":1455},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1457,"slug":1458,"category":1348,"order":1455},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1460,"slug":1461,"category":1352,"order":1455},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1463,"slug":1464,"category":1326,"order":1465},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1467,"slug":1468,"category":1348,"order":1465},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1470,"slug":1471,"category":1352,"order":1465},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1473,"slug":1474,"category":1326,"order":1475},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1477,"slug":1478,"category":1348,"order":1475},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1480,"slug":1481,"category":1352,"order":1475},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1483,"slug":1484,"category":1326,"order":1485},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1487,"slug":1488,"category":1348,"order":1485},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1490,"slug":1491,"category":1352,"order":1485},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1493,"slug":1494,"category":1326,"order":1495},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":1497,"slug":1498,"category":1348,"order":1495},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1500,"slug":1501,"category":1352,"order":1495},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1503,"slug":1504,"category":1326,"order":1505},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1507,"slug":1508,"category":1348,"order":1505},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1510,"slug":1511,"category":1352,"order":1505},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1513,"slug":1514,"category":1326,"order":1515},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1517,"slug":1518,"category":1348,"order":1515},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1520,"slug":1521,"category":1352,"order":1515},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1523,"slug":1524,"category":1326,"order":1525},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":1527,"slug":1528,"category":1348,"order":1525},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1530,"slug":1531,"category":1352,"order":1525},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1533,"slug":1534,"category":1326,"order":1535},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1537,"slug":1538,"category":1348,"order":1535},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1540,"slug":1541,"category":1352,"order":1535},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1543,"slug":1544,"category":1326,"order":1545},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1547,"slug":1548,"category":1348,"order":1545},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1550,"slug":1551,"category":1352,"order":1545},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1553,"slug":1554,"category":1326,"order":1555},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1557,"slug":1558,"category":1348,"order":1555},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1560,"slug":1561,"category":1352,"order":1555},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1563,"slug":1564,"category":1326,"order":1565},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1567,"slug":1568,"category":1348,"order":1565},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1570,"slug":1571,"category":1352,"order":1565},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1573,"slug":1574,"category":1326,"order":1575},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1577,"slug":1578,"category":1348,"order":1575},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1580,"slug":1581,"category":1352,"order":1575},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1583,"slug":1584,"category":1326,"order":1585},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1587,"slug":1588,"category":1348,"order":1585},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1590,"slug":1591,"category":1352,"order":1585},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1593,"slug":1594,"category":1326,"order":1595},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1597,"slug":1598,"category":1348,"order":1595},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1600,"slug":1601,"category":1352,"order":1595},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1603,"slug":1604,"category":1326,"order":1605},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1607,"slug":1608,"category":1348,"order":1605},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1610,"slug":1611,"category":1352,"order":1605},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1613,"slug":1614,"category":1326,"order":1615},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1617,"slug":1618,"category":1348,"order":1615},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1620,"slug":1621,"category":1352,"order":1615},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1623,"slug":1624,"category":1326,"order":1625},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1627,"slug":1628,"category":1348,"order":1625},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1630,"slug":1631,"category":1352,"order":1625},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1633,"slug":1634,"category":1326,"order":1635},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1637,"slug":1638,"category":1348,"order":1635},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1640,"slug":1641,"category":1352,"order":1635},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1643,"slug":1644,"category":1326,"order":1645},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1647,"slug":1648,"category":1348,"order":1645},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1650,"slug":1651,"category":1352,"order":1645},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1653,"slug":1654,"category":1326,"order":1655},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1657,"slug":1658,"category":1348,"order":1655},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1660,"slug":1661,"category":1352,"order":1655},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1663,"slug":1664,"category":1326,"order":1665},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1667,"slug":1668,"category":1348,"order":1665},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1670,"slug":1671,"category":1352,"order":1665},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1673,"slug":1674,"category":1326,"order":1675},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1677,"slug":1678,"category":1348,"order":1675},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1680,"slug":1681,"category":1326,"order":1682},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1684,"slug":1685,"category":1348,"order":1682},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1687,"slug":1688,"category":1326,"order":1689},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1691,"slug":1692,"category":1348,"order":1689},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1694,"slug":1695,"category":1326,"order":1696},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1698,"slug":1699,"category":1348,"order":1696},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1701,"slug":1702,"category":1326,"order":1703},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1705,"slug":1706,"category":1348,"order":1703},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1708,"slug":1709,"category":1326,"order":1710},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1712,"slug":1713,"category":1348,"order":1710},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1715,"slug":1716,"category":1326,"order":1717},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1719,"slug":1720,"category":1348,"order":1717},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1722,"slug":1723,"category":1326,"order":1724},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1726,"slug":1727,"category":1348,"order":1724},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1729,"slug":1730,"category":1326,"order":1731},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1733,"slug":1734,"category":1348,"order":1731},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1736,"slug":1737,"category":1326,"order":1738},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1740,"slug":1741,"category":1348,"order":1738},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1743,"slug":1744,"category":1326,"order":1745},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1747,"slug":1748,"category":1348,"order":1745},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1750,"slug":1751,"category":1326,"order":1752},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1754,"slug":1755,"category":1348,"order":1752},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1757,"slug":1758,"category":1326,"order":1759},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1761,"slug":1762,"category":1348,"order":1759},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1764,"slug":1765,"category":1326,"order":1766},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1768,"slug":1769,"category":1348,"order":1766},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1771,"slug":1772,"category":1326,"order":1773},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1775,"slug":1776,"category":1348,"order":1773},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1778,"slug":1779,"category":1326,"order":1780},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1782,"slug":1783,"category":1348,"order":1780},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1785,"slug":1786,"category":1326,"order":1787},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1789,"slug":1790,"category":1348,"order":1787},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1792,"slug":1793,"category":1326,"order":1794},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1796,"slug":1797,"category":1348,"order":1794},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1799,"slug":1800,"category":1326,"order":1801},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1803,"slug":1804,"category":1348,"order":1801},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1806,"slug":1807,"category":1326,"order":1808},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1810,"slug":1811,"category":1348,"order":1808},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1813,"slug":1814,"category":1326,"order":1815},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1817,"slug":1818,"category":1348,"order":1815},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1820,"slug":1821,"category":1326,"order":1822},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1824,"slug":1825,"category":1348,"order":1822},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1827,"slug":1828,"category":1326,"order":1829},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1831,"slug":1832,"category":1348,"order":1829},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1834,"slug":1835,"category":1326,"order":1836},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1838,"slug":1839,"category":1348,"order":1836},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1841,"slug":1842,"category":1326,"order":1843},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1845,"slug":1846,"category":1348,"order":1843},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1848,"slug":1849,"category":1326,"order":1850},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1852,"slug":1853,"category":1348,"order":1850},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":5,"slug":1336,"category":1326,"order":1332},{"title":1856,"slug":1857,"category":1348,"order":1332},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1859,"slug":1860,"category":1326,"order":1861},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1863,"slug":1864,"category":1348,"order":1861},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1866,"slug":1867,"category":1326,"order":1868},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1870,"slug":1871,"category":1348,"order":1868},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1873,"slug":1874,"category":1326,"order":1875},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1877,"slug":1878,"category":1348,"order":1875},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1880,"slug":1881,"category":1326,"order":1882},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1884,"slug":1885,"category":1348,"order":1882},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1887,"slug":1888,"category":1326,"order":1889},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1891,"slug":1892,"category":1348,"order":1889},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1894,"slug":1895,"category":1326,"order":1896},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1898,"slug":1899,"category":1348,"order":1896},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1901,"slug":1902,"category":1326,"order":1903},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1905,"slug":1906,"category":1348,"order":1903},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1908,"slug":1909,"category":1326,"order":1910},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1912,"slug":1913,"category":1348,"order":1910},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1915,"slug":1916,"category":1326,"order":1917},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1919,"slug":1920,"category":1348,"order":1917},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1922,"slug":1923,"category":1326,"order":1924},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1926,"slug":1927,"category":1348,"order":1924},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1929,"slug":1930,"category":1326,"order":1931},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1933,"slug":1934,"category":1348,"order":1931},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1936,"slug":1937,"category":1326,"order":1938},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1940,"slug":1941,"category":1348,"order":1938},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1943,"slug":1944,"category":1326,"order":1945},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1947,"slug":1948,"category":1348,"order":1945},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1950,"slug":1951,"category":1326,"order":1952},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1954,"slug":1955,"category":1348,"order":1952},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1957,"slug":1958,"category":1326,"order":1959},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1961,"slug":1962,"category":1348,"order":1959},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1964,"slug":1965,"category":1326,"order":1966},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1968,"slug":1969,"category":1348,"order":1966},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1971,"slug":1972,"category":1326,"order":1973},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1975,"slug":1976,"category":1348,"order":1973},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1978,"slug":1979,"category":1326,"order":1980},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1982,"slug":1983,"category":1348,"order":1980},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1985,"slug":1986,"category":1326,"order":1987},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1989,"slug":1990,"category":1348,"order":1987},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1992,"slug":1993,"category":1326,"order":1994},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1996,"slug":1997,"category":1348,"order":1994},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1999,"slug":2000,"category":1326,"order":2001},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2003,"slug":2004,"category":1348,"order":2001},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2006,"slug":2007,"category":1326,"order":2008},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2010,"slug":2011,"category":1348,"order":2008},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2013,"slug":2014,"category":1326,"order":2015},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2017,"slug":2018,"category":1348,"order":2015},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2020,"slug":2021,"category":1326,"order":2022},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2024,"slug":2025,"category":1348,"order":2022},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2027,"slug":2028,"category":1326,"order":2029},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2031,"slug":2032,"category":1348,"order":2029},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2034,"slug":2035,"category":1326,"order":2036},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2038,"slug":2039,"category":1348,"order":2036},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2041,"slug":2042,"category":1326,"order":2043},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2045,"slug":2046,"category":1348,"order":2043},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2048,"slug":2049,"category":1326,"order":2050},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2052,"slug":2053,"category":1348,"order":2050},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2055,"slug":2056,"category":1326,"order":2057},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2059,"slug":2060,"category":1348,"order":2057},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2062,"slug":2063,"category":1326,"order":2064},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2066,"slug":2067,"category":1348,"order":2064},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2069,"slug":2070,"category":1326,"order":2071},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2073,"slug":2074,"category":1348,"order":2071},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2076,"slug":2077,"category":1326,"order":2078},"2019 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