[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2759},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1223,"library-sidebar-dao":2225,"library-sidebar-models":2527},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1209,"date":1210,"description":1211,"extension":1212,"meta":1213,"navigation":1214,"order":1215,"path":1216,"seo":1217,"seoDescription":1211,"seoTitle":1218,"slug":1219,"stem":1220,"__hash__":1221,"_collection":1222},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2002 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1204},"minimark",[9,13,20,24,596,599,602,613,617,620,635,638,659,662,669,672,675,678,681,684,687,690,693,696,699,702,705,708,711,714,717,720,723,726,729,916,919,922,925,928,931,934,937,940,943,946,953,956,959,962,965,968,971,974,977,980,987,990,997,1000,1003,1010,1013,1016,1019,1022,1025,1028,1031,1034,1037,1044,1047,1062,1065,1068,1071,1074,1081,1084,1099,1102,1105,1108,1113,1116,1119,1122,1125,1132,1135,1138,1141,1144,1151,1154,1161,1164,1171,1178,1181],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2002-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"注：下面这张表格刊印在年报中，紧邻董事长致辞的对面页，信中有所引用。",[21,22,23],"h2",{"id":23},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[25,26,27,46],"table",{},[28,29,30],"thead",{},[31,32,33,37,40,43],"tr",{},[34,35,36],"th",{},"年份",[34,38,39],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[34,41,42],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[34,44,45],{},"相对结果 (1)-(2)",[47,48,49,64,78,92,105,119,133,147,161,175,189,203,217,230,244,257,271,285,299,312,326,340,352,365,378,392,406,420,432,446,460,473,487,501,515,529,543,557,570,583],"tbody",{},[31,50,51,55,58,61],{},[52,53,54],"td",{},"1965",[52,56,57],{},"23.8",[52,59,60],{},"10.0",[52,62,63],{},"13.8",[31,65,66,69,72,75],{},[52,67,68],{},"1966",[52,70,71],{},"20.3",[52,73,74],{},"(11.7)",[52,76,77],{},"32.0",[31,79,80,83,86,89],{},[52,81,82],{},"1967",[52,84,85],{},"11.0",[52,87,88],{},"30.9",[52,90,91],{},"(19.9)",[31,93,94,97,100,102],{},[52,95,96],{},"1968",[52,98,99],{},"19.0",[52,101,85],{},[52,103,104],{},"8.0",[31,106,107,110,113,116],{},[52,108,109],{},"1969",[52,111,112],{},"16.2",[52,114,115],{},"(8.4)",[52,117,118],{},"24.6",[31,120,121,124,127,130],{},[52,122,123],{},"1970",[52,125,126],{},"12.0",[52,128,129],{},"3.9",[52,131,132],{},"8.1",[31,134,135,138,141,144],{},[52,136,137],{},"1971",[52,139,140],{},"16.4",[52,142,143],{},"14.6",[52,145,146],{},"1.8",[31,148,149,152,155,158],{},[52,150,151],{},"1972",[52,153,154],{},"21.7",[52,156,157],{},"18.9",[52,159,160],{},"2.8",[31,162,163,166,169,172],{},[52,164,165],{},"1973",[52,167,168],{},"4.7",[52,170,171],{},"(14.8)",[52,173,174],{},"19.5",[31,176,177,180,183,186],{},[52,178,179],{},"1974",[52,181,182],{},"5.5",[52,184,185],{},"(26.4)",[52,187,188],{},"31.9",[31,190,191,194,197,200],{},[52,192,193],{},"1975",[52,195,196],{},"21.9",[52,198,199],{},"37.2",[52,201,202],{},"(15.3)",[31,204,205,208,211,214],{},[52,206,207],{},"1976",[52,209,210],{},"59.3",[52,212,213],{},"23.6",[52,215,216],{},"35.7",[31,218,219,222,224,227],{},[52,220,221],{},"1977",[52,223,188],{},[52,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[52,228,229],{},"39.3",[31,231,232,235,238,241],{},[52,233,234],{},"1978",[52,236,237],{},"24.0",[52,239,240],{},"6.4",[52,242,243],{},"17.6",[31,245,246,249,251,254],{},[52,247,248],{},"1979",[52,250,216],{},[52,252,253],{},"18.2",[52,255,256],{},"17.5",[31,258,259,262,265,268],{},[52,260,261],{},"1980",[52,263,264],{},"19.3",[52,266,267],{},"32.3",[52,269,270],{},"(13.0)",[31,272,273,276,279,282],{},[52,274,275],{},"1981",[52,277,278],{},"31.4",[52,280,281],{},"(5.0)",[52,283,284],{},"36.4",[31,286,287,290,293,296],{},[52,288,289],{},"1982",[52,291,292],{},"40.0",[52,294,295],{},"21.4",[52,297,298],{},"18.6",[31,300,301,304,306,309],{},[52,302,303],{},"1983",[52,305,267],{},[52,307,308],{},"22.4",[52,310,311],{},"9.9",[31,313,314,317,320,323],{},[52,315,316],{},"1984",[52,318,319],{},"13.6",[52,321,322],{},"6.1",[52,324,325],{},"7.5",[31,327,328,331,334,337],{},[52,329,330],{},"1985",[52,332,333],{},"48.2",[52,335,336],{},"31.6",[52,338,339],{},"16.6",[31,341,342,345,348,350],{},[52,343,344],{},"1986",[52,346,347],{},"26.1",[52,349,298],{},[52,351,325],{},[31,353,354,357,359,362],{},[52,355,356],{},"1987",[52,358,174],{},[52,360,361],{},"5.1",[52,363,364],{},"14.4",[31,366,367,370,373,375],{},[52,368,369],{},"1988",[52,371,372],{},"20.1",[52,374,339],{},[52,376,377],{},"3.5",[31,379,380,383,386,389],{},[52,381,382],{},"1989",[52,384,385],{},"44.4",[52,387,388],{},"31.7",[52,390,391],{},"12.7",[31,393,394,397,400,403],{},[52,395,396],{},"1990",[52,398,399],{},"7.4",[52,401,402],{},"(3.1)",[52,404,405],{},"10.5",[31,407,408,411,414,417],{},[52,409,410],{},"1991",[52,412,413],{},"39.6",[52,415,416],{},"30.5",[52,418,419],{},"9.1",[31,421,422,425,427,430],{},[52,423,424],{},"1992",[52,426,71],{},[52,428,429],{},"7.6",[52,431,391],{},[31,433,434,437,440,443],{},[52,435,436],{},"1993",[52,438,439],{},"14.3",[52,441,442],{},"10.1",[52,444,445],{},"4.2",[31,447,448,451,454,457],{},[52,449,450],{},"1994",[52,452,453],{},"13.9",[52,455,456],{},"1.3",[52,458,459],{},"12.6",[31,461,462,465,468,471],{},[52,463,464],{},"1995",[52,466,467],{},"43.1",[52,469,470],{},"37.6",[52,472,182],{},[31,474,475,478,481,484],{},[52,476,477],{},"1996",[52,479,480],{},"31.8",[52,482,483],{},"23.0",[52,485,486],{},"8.8",[31,488,489,492,495,498],{},[52,490,491],{},"1997",[52,493,494],{},"34.1",[52,496,497],{},"33.4",[52,499,500],{},".7",[31,502,503,506,509,512],{},[52,504,505],{},"1998",[52,507,508],{},"48.3",[52,510,511],{},"28.6",[52,513,514],{},"19.7",[31,516,517,520,523,526],{},[52,518,519],{},"1999",[52,521,522],{},".5",[52,524,525],{},"21.0",[52,527,528],{},"(20.5)",[31,530,531,534,537,540],{},[52,532,533],{},"2000",[52,535,536],{},"6.5",[52,538,539],{},"(9.1)",[52,541,542],{},"15.6",[31,544,545,548,551,554],{},[52,546,547],{},"2001",[52,549,550],{},"(6.2)",[52,552,553],{},"(11.9)",[52,555,556],{},"5.7",[31,558,559,562,564,567],{},[52,560,561],{},"2002",[52,563,60],{},[52,565,566],{},"(22.1)",[52,568,569],{},"32.1",[31,571,572,575,578,580],{},[52,573,574],{},"年复合增长率 -- 1965-2002",[52,576,577],{},"22.2",[52,579,60],{},[52,581,582],{},"12.2",[31,584,585,588,591,594],{},[52,586,587],{},"累计总收益 -- 1964-2002",[52,589,590],{},"214,433",[52,592,593],{},"3,663",[52,595],{},[14,597,598],{},"注：数据按日历年度计算，但以下年份例外：1965年和1966年，截至9月30日的会计年度；1967年，截至12月31日的15个月。",[14,600,601],{},"自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市场价值而非成本与市价孰低法对持有的股权证券进行估值。本表中，伯克希尔1978年及以前的数据已按新准则进行了追溯调整。其它方面，结果均按照最初报告的数字计算。",[14,603,604,605,608,609,612],{},"标普500指数的数据为",[17,606,607],{},"税前","回报，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,610,611],{},"税后","回报。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，在标普500指数正回报的年份其业绩会落后该指数，但在指数负回报的年份则会跑赢。长期来看，税负成本将导致显著的累计落后。",[10,614,616],{"id":615},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,618,619],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东们：",[14,621,622,623],{},"2002年，公司的净资产增加了61亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值增长10.0%。自现任管理层接手的38年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元增长到现在的41,727美元，年复合增长率为22.2%。",[624,625,626],"sup",{},[627,628,634],"a",{"href":629,"ariaDescribedBy":630,"dataFootnoteRef":632,"id":633},"#user-content-fn-*",[631],"footnote-label","","user-content-fnref-*","1",[14,636,637],{},"从任何角度来看，2002年都是丰收的一年。后面我会再详加说明，以下先做几点总结：",[639,640,641,650,653,656],"ul",{},[642,643,644,645,649],"li",{},"尽管整体经济不景气，我们旗下各项非保险事业的表现依然异常出色。十年前，我们非保险事业的年度税前利润为2.72亿美元。如今，在持续扩张制造、零售、服务以及金融业务版图之后，我们",[646,647,648],"em",{},"一个月","就能赚到这个数。",[642,651,652],{},"我们保险事业的浮存金增加到412亿美元，大幅增长了57亿美元。更棒的是，2002年取得这些资金的成本仅为1%。浮存金再度回到低成本状态，感觉真好，特别是经历了前三年的惨淡之后。伯克希尔的再保险部门以及盖可保险 (GEICO) 在2002年都大放异彩，通用再保险 (General Re) 的承保纪律也已恢复。",[642,654,655],{},"伯克希尔完成了几项重要的并购，这些企业的经济特性从好到卓越不等，经理人从卓越到卓越。这是我们\"进场\"策略的两条腿，第三条腿是合理的买入价格。不同于杠杆收购者和私募股权公司，我们没有\"退出\"策略——我们买了就不卖。这也是为什么伯克希尔往往是卖方及其经理人的首选——有时甚至是唯一的选择。",[642,657,658],{},"我们的股票投资组合跑赢了大部分指数。对于负责管理盖可保险资金的路易·辛普森 (Lou Simpson) 来说，这是家常便饭。但对我而言，经历了此前几年令人沮丧的投资记录后，这可是一个可喜的转变。\n2002年，这些有利因素汇聚在一起，使我们的账面价值增幅超越标普500指数32.1个百分点。这样的成绩好得有些反常：伯克希尔的副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 和我至多只是希望能够平均每年稳定地超越指数几个百分点。将来一定会出现标普指数大幅跑赢我们的年份。事实上，在强劲的牛市中这几乎是必然的，因为我们资产中用于普通股投资的比例已经大幅下降。当然，这一转变也让我们在2002年这样的熊市中相对表现不错。",[14,660,661],{},"关于去年的业绩，我还有一点要补充。如果你经常阅读近几年上市公司的财务报告，一定见过铺天盖地的\"备考收益\"报表——在这类报表中，管理层展示的\"利润\"数字总是远远高于经审计的数字。CEO们会告诉股东们：\"不要算这个，不要算那个——只算那些让利润好看的数字就行了。\"这种\"坏的忘掉、好的记牢\"的把戏年复一年地上演，管理层却从来不会因此脸红。",[14,663,664,665,668],{},"我们还没见过哪家公司的备考收益报表是承认审计后利润偏高的。所以就让我们来创造一点历史吧：去年按备考收益计算，伯克希尔的利润",[646,666,667],{},"低于","实际报告的数字。",[14,670,671],{},"这是因为有两项有利因素确实给我们的财报数字帮了忙。第一，2002年没有发生什么重大灾难，这意味着伯克希尔（以及其他保险同业）的承保利润高于正常年份。而在情况相反的年份——遭遇超级飓风、地震或人为灾害——许多保险公司喜欢宣称\"要不是\"那些意外事件，他们本来可以赚到多少多少。言下之意，这类巨灾既然十分罕见，计算\"真实\"收益时就不该把它们算在内。这完全是骗人的鬼话。\"意外\"损失本来就是保险业天经地义要承担的一部分，而买单的永远是背后的股东。",[14,673,674],{},"尽管如此，为了做这个备考收益的练习，我们就照同行的做法来。去年我们没有碰到什么真正的大灾难，所以如果想要\"正常化\"我们的承保业绩，向下调整一下是合理的。",[14,676,677],{},"第二，2002年的债券市场特别有利于我们金融产品部门所采用的策略。这类策略产生的收益在一两年内肯定会逐渐减少，甚至可能完全消失。",[14,679,680],{},"所以呢……在\"扣除\"这几项有利的因素后，我们去年的税前利润应该比实际报告的数字少大约5亿美元。当然了，多赚的钱我们也照收不误。正如喜剧演员杰克·本尼 (Jack Benny) 在一次获奖时所说的：\"我不配得到这个荣誉——但话说回来，我也不配得关节炎，偏偏也得了。\"",[14,682,683],{},"去年，伯克希尔还通过中美能源控股公司（MidAmerican Energy Holdings，简称MEHC）完成了几项重要的并购，我们持有该公司80.2%的股权。由于《公用事业控股公司法》(PUHCA) 限制我们只能拥有9.9%的投票权，因此无法将MEHC的财务报表完全并入伯克希尔。",[14,685,686],{},"尽管受限于投票权的控制——以及由此导致的有点奇怪的资本结构——MEHC仍然是伯克希尔非常重要的组成部分。目前它的资产总额达180亿美元，并贡献了我们最大的非保险事业收益流。未来它很可能会变得更大。",[14,688,689],{},"去年MEHC收购了两条重要的天然气管线。第一条是科恩河管线 (Kern River)，从怀俄明州西南部延伸到南加州，每天运输约9亿立方英尺天然气。目前正在进行12亿美元的扩建工程，预计今年秋天完工后运输量将翻一番。届时，这条管线运输的天然气足以满足1000万户家庭的发电需求。",[14,691,692],{},"第二条是北方天然气管线 (Northern Natural Gas)，全长16,600英里，从美国西南部一路延伸到广袤的中西部各地。这笔收购为奥马哈人上演了一出特别有趣的企业漂流记。",[14,694,695],{},"自1930年代起，北方天然气公司一直是奥马哈地区首屈一指的企业，历任CEO都是当地知名的社区领袖。1985年7月，这家公司——1980年已更名为国际北方公司 (InterNorth)——与规模不到它一半的休斯敦天然气 (Houston Natural Gas) 合并。当时宣布，合并后的公司总部将继续设在奥马哈，由国际北方公司的CEO留任。",[14,697,698],{},"不到一年，这些承诺就统统被打破。那时，休斯敦天然气的原CEO已经夺取了最高职位，公司被改了名，总部也搬到了休斯敦。这一切的幕后推手是新CEO——肯尼斯·雷 (Ken Lay)——他给公司起的新名字叫安然 (Enron)。",[14,700,701],{},"时光快进15年，到了2001年底。安然陷入了我们都已耳熟能详的困境，被迫向达尼基 (Dynegy) 公司借款，以北方天然气管线作为抵押。两家公司很快闹翻，管线的所有权转移到了Dynegy名下。不久之后，Dynegy自身也遭遇了严重的财务困难。",[14,703,704],{},"7月26日，周五，MEHC接到Dynegy打来的电话，对方急需尽快以现金出售这条管线。他们真是找对人了：7月29日，我们签下了合同，不久之后，北方天然气公司就回到了家乡的怀抱。",[14,706,707],{},"2001年初，查理和我压根没想到伯克希尔会进入管道运输业。不过，在科恩河管线扩建完成后，MEHC运输的天然气将占到全美使用量的大约8%。我们将继续寻找大型能源相关资产，尽管在电力公用事业领域，PUHCA对我们能做的事情多有限制。",[14,709,710],{},"MEHC的CEO戴夫·索科尔 (Dave Sokol) 和他的得力搭档格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel) 是伯克希尔的宝贵财富。他们既是谈交易的能手，也是出色的管理者。伯克希尔已准备好向MEHC注入大量资金——看Dave和Greg把这项事业做到多大将是一件乐事。",[10,712,713],{"id":713},"财产意外险的经济模型",[14,715,716],{},"我们的核心业务是保险——虽然其他业务也非常重要。因此，要了解伯克希尔，你就必须知道如何评估一家保险公司。关键的决定因素有三：(1) 公司所能产生的浮存金规模；(2) 浮存金的获取成本；(3) 最关键的是，这两个因素的长期前景。",[14,718,719],{},"首先，浮存金是一笔我们持有但并不属于我们的资金。在保险运营中，浮存金的产生是因为保费在损失赔付之前就已收取，而这一时间差有时可以延续很多年。在此期间，保险公司可以将这笔资金用于投资。这项美差通常也伴随着一个缺点：保险公司收取的保费往往不足以覆盖最终需要支付的赔款和费用，由此产生\"承保亏损\"，这就是浮存金的成本。一家保险公司的价值取决于：长期来看，其浮存金成本是否低于通过其他渠道获取资金的成本。如果浮存金成本高于市场资金利率，这项业务就会变成鸡肋。而且，近年来利率持续走低，已经让以前尚可忍受的承保亏损变成了沉重的负担，使得许多保险业务彻底沦为食之无味的鸡肋。",[14,721,722],{},"历史记录显示，伯克希尔获取浮存金的成本一向很低。事实上，有很多年份我们的成本低于零——也就是说，别人反过来付钱请我们帮他们保管资金。不过，2001年我们的成本非常糟糕，高达12.8%，其中大约一半归因于世贸中心的赔付损失。回顾更早的历史，1983到1984年间我们还经历过更悲惨的年头。便宜的浮存金绝非凭空而来。",[14,724,725],{},"下表展示了伯克希尔进入保险业36年来（自收购国民保险公司 (National Indemnity Company) 起），各业务板块在不同时间节点产生的浮存金（其中国民保险的传统业务归入\"其他主险\"项下）。我们计算浮存金的方法——相对于保费规模，我们持有的浮存金数额非常庞大——是将损失准备金、损失调整准备金、已承担再保险的持有资金、未到期保费准备金加总后，再扣除保险相关应收款项、预付获取成本、预付税金和适用于已承担再保险的递延费用。（听明白了吧？）",[14,727,728],{},"年末浮存金（百万美元）",[25,730,731,752],{},[28,732,733],{},[31,734,735,737,740,743,746,749],{},[34,736,36],{},[34,738,739],{},"盖可保险",[34,741,742],{},"通用再保险",[34,744,745],{},"其他再保险",[34,747,748],{},"其他主险",[34,750,751],{},"合计",[47,753,754,769,786,803,821,840,859,878,897],{},[31,755,756,758,760,762,764,767],{},[52,757,82],{},[52,759],{},[52,761],{},[52,763],{},[52,765,766],{},"20",[52,768,766],{},[31,770,771,773,775,777,780,783],{},[52,772,221],{},[52,774],{},[52,776],{},[52,778,779],{},"40",[52,781,782],{},"131",[52,784,785],{},"171",[31,787,788,790,792,794,797,800],{},[52,789,356],{},[52,791],{},[52,793],{},[52,795,796],{},"701",[52,798,799],{},"807",[52,801,802],{},"1,508",[31,804,805,807,810,812,815,818],{},[52,806,491],{},[52,808,809],{},"2,917",[52,811],{},[52,813,814],{},"4,014",[52,816,817],{},"455",[52,819,820],{},"7,386",[31,822,823,825,828,831,834,837],{},[52,824,505],{},[52,826,827],{},"3,125",[52,829,830],{},"14,909",[52,832,833],{},"4,305",[52,835,836],{},"415",[52,838,839],{},"22,754",[31,841,842,844,847,850,853,856],{},[52,843,519],{},[52,845,846],{},"3,444",[52,848,849],{},"15,166",[52,851,852],{},"6,285",[52,854,855],{},"403",[52,857,858],{},"25,298",[31,860,861,863,866,869,872,875],{},[52,862,533],{},[52,864,865],{},"3,943",[52,867,868],{},"15,525",[52,870,871],{},"7,805",[52,873,874],{},"598",[52,876,877],{},"27,871",[31,879,880,882,885,888,891,894],{},[52,881,547],{},[52,883,884],{},"4,251",[52,886,887],{},"19,310",[52,889,890],{},"11,262",[52,892,893],{},"685",[52,895,896],{},"35,508",[31,898,899,901,904,907,910,913],{},[52,900,561],{},[52,902,903],{},"4,678",[52,905,906],{},"22,207",[52,908,909],{},"13,396",[52,911,912],{},"943",[52,914,915],{},"41,224",[14,917,918],{},"去年我们的浮存金成本约为1%。不过正如我先前所说，请不要因为这个好数字就过度乐观，这完全是因为2002年没有发生什么重大灾难。我们迟早会碰上这类灾难，届时浮存金成本将会飙升。",[14,920,921],{},"我们2002年的业绩受到两个因素的拖累：(1) 通用再保险痛苦地补提了本应在前几年就入账的损失准备金；(2) 追溯再保险业务每年固定必须摊销的损失成本（下一节会详细说明）。这两项成本合计17.5亿美元，约相当于浮存金的4.6%。幸运的是，我们2002年整体的承保业绩非常出色，使得在计提以上损失之后，仍然接近盈亏平衡。",[14,923,924],{},"除非再发生什么重大灾难，否则我预计2003年的浮存金成本将会非常低——甚至有可能低于零。在接下来的保险业务概述中，各位将会看到我为什么这么乐观：长期而言，我们的承保业绩将超越行业平均水准，并让我们以最低的成本获取投资所需的资金。",[10,926,927],{"id":927},"保险事业运营",[14,929,930],{},"如果我们的保险业务想要长期产生低成本的浮存金，就必须做到：(a) 贯彻毫不妥协的承保纪律；(b) 稳健保守地计提损失准备金；(c) 避免累积过多的风险敞口，以防看似\"不可能发生\"的事件危及公司的偿付能力。除了一个例外，我们旗下所有主要保险公司都持续达到了这些标准。",[14,932,933],{},"这个例外正是通用再保险，去年这家公司为了重新走上正轨，有一大堆事要做。我很高兴向各位报告，在乔·布兰登 (Joe Brandon) 的领导下，加上塔德·蒙特罗斯 (Tad Montross) 的鼎力协助，在上述每一项指标上都取得了巨大进步。",[14,935,936],{},"1998年我同意伯克希尔与通用再保险合并时，以为这家公司一直严守我列举的三项原则。我已经跟踪观察它的运营长达数十年，看到的是始终如一的承保纪律和保守的准备金计提。合并当时，我没有发现通用再保险的标准有任何滑坡。",[14,938,939],{},"结果我大错特错。通用再保险的文化和做法已经发生了根本性的改变，而管理层浑然不知——我也浑然不知——公司的业务定价已经严重偏离。更有甚者，通用再保险还积累了致命的风险敞口。比如说，恐怖分子就有可能在美国引爆数枚大当量核弹。这种灾难发生的概率当然极低，但保险公司的职责就是要限制自己的风险——确保即使\"不可能\"的事情真的发生了，财务状况依然稳如磐石。事实上，如果通用再保险没有并入伯克希尔，仅仅世贸中心一起袭击事件就足以危及公司的存亡。",[14,941,942],{},"世贸中心灾难的发生暴露了通用再保险运营中的种种弱点，这是我早该发现却偏偏没有发现的。但我很幸运：Joe和Tad就在身边，他们刚被赋予更大的权力，并且迫切想要纠正过去的错误。他们知道该怎么做——而且做到了。",[14,944,945],{},"保险合同有时间递延性，不过到2002年中期，我们已经相当成功地将核、化、生风险 (NCB) 的累积敞口降到了可接受的水平。这个问题现在已经成为历史。",[14,947,948,949,952],{},"另一方面，通用再保险的承保态度也发生了翻天覆地的变化：整个组织现在都很清楚，无论对业务规模有什么影响，我们只承保定价合理的业务。Joe和Tad",[646,950,951],{},"只以","通用再保险的承保盈利来考核自己，规模大小完全不在考量之列。",[14,954,955],{},"最后，我们正在尽一切努力把准备金提准。如果做不到这一点，我们就无法知道自己的真实成本。任何一家不了解自身成本的保险公司，将来肯定会遇到大麻烦。",[14,957,958],{},"2001年底，通用再保险试图为所有在那个日期之前已经发生但尚未赔付的损失充分计提准备金——但远远不够。因此，公司2002年的承保业绩中额外计入了13.1亿美元，以纠正前几年的估计错误。当我回顾通用再保险被揭露出来的准备金不足问题时，一首乡村歌曲的歌词显得特别贴切：\"真希望当初不知道的那些事，现在也还不知道就好了。\"",[14,960,961],{},"我向各位保证，我们未来的首要任务就是避免准备金计提不足。但我无法保证一定能做到。大多数财产意外险的经理人天生倾向于少提准备金，要克服这种可能导致灾难性后果的偏差，需要一种特殊的心态——说起来你可能会意外，这跟精算专业能力一点关系都没有。此外，再保险公司在合理计提准备金方面比直保公司面临大得多的困难。不过即便如此，伯克希尔在准备金计提方面一直做得相当不错，我们也决心让通用再保险同样如此。",[14,963,964],{},"总的来说，我相信通用再保险现在已经准备好为伯克希尔贡献大量的零成本浮存金，而那种可能\"沉船\"的巨灾风险也已经被排除。公司仍然保有我过去反复提及的重要竞争优势。去年它还获得了另一项非常显著的优势：其全球三大主要竞争对手——此前都拥有AAA评级——至少被一家评级机构调降了评级。在这些巨头中，唯有通用再保险全面维持AAA评级，在财务实力方面独占鳌头。",[14,966,967],{},"没有什么特质比这个更重要了。作为对比，世界上最大的再保险公司之一——一家经常被保险经纪人推荐给直保客户的公司——目前几乎已经停止支付理赔金，包括那些有效且到期的理赔。这家公司欠数百家直保公司数十亿美元，这些公司现在面临大规模的坏账减值。\"贪便宜的再保险\"纯属自欺欺人：当一家保险公司今天掏出真金白银，换来再保险公司十年二十年后才兑现的承诺时，如果不跟最强的再保险公司做生意，那就是在拿公司的命开玩笑。",[14,969,970],{},"伯克希尔的股东们要衷心感谢Joe和Tad在2002年取得的巨大成就。过去一年，他们付出的辛劳超出了我对任何人的期望——而这一切都在得偿所报。",[14,972,973],{},"阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 领导的再保险部门，是我们去年浮存金成本之所以能够压得如此之低的最主要原因。如果伯克希尔的年报里要放一张人物照片，那一定是Ajit的。而且一定要用彩色的！",[14,975,976],{},"Ajit的部门已经积累了134亿美元的浮存金，除了屈指可数的几家大型保险公司外，没有谁达到过这个规模。他从1986年白手起家，至今团队不过20人。而且，最重要的是，他还实现了承保盈利。",[14,978,979],{},"如果你把我接下来要讲的几项会计因素考虑进去，他的利润就更加了不起了。所以请大家准备好吃你们的菠菜（或者，如果你对借贷记账不感兴趣，可以跳过接下来的两段）。",[14,981,982,983,986],{},"Ajit在2002年实现的5.34亿美元承保利润，是在",[646,984,985],{},"扣除","了4.28亿美元追溯再保险费用之后的数字——这些费用来自他多年来承保的追溯再保险业务。在这个业务领域，我们从其他保险公司那里接过一项义务：为他们已经发生但尚未赔付的损失——往往是几十年前的事件——支付约定上限内的理赔金（例如，一名1980年受伤的工人将终身领取月度赔偿金）。在这种安排中，投保的保险公司一次性支付给我们一大笔保费，但金额低于我们预计将来要赔出去的总数。我们之所以愿意接受这个差额，原因在于：(a) 我们的赔付有上限；(b) 在理赔金实际支付之前——这一过程往往长达十年甚至更久——我们可以运用这笔资金进行投资。在我们承保的66亿美元石棉及环境损害准备金中，大约80%来自有赔付上限的合同，因此其成本不会无限制地飙升。",[14,988,989],{},"当我们签下一份追溯再保险保单时，我们立即将保费和预计损失准备金同时入账。两者的差额则以一项名为\"递延费用——已承担再保险\"的资产入账。这可不是一个小数目：截至年底，所有追溯再保险保单的这一资产合计为34亿美元。然后我们按每张保单的预计存续期间逐年摊销这笔资产，计入损益减项。2002年的摊销金额为4.4亿美元（含通用再保险部分）——这些费用形成承保亏损，但这是事先预期且符合我们意愿的。即便背负了这一负担，Ajit去年仍然实现了可观的承保盈利。",[14,991,992,993,996],{},"不过我们需要强调，在Ajit的业务中，我们所承担的风险是巨大的——",[646,994,995],{},"远远超过","世界上任何其他保险公司自留的风险。因此，单一事件就可能导致Ajit在任何一个季度或年度的业绩出现巨大波动。不过这一点丝毫不困扰我们：只要收取的保费合理，我们乐于承担那些别人避之唯恐不及的短期波动。在伯克希尔，我们宁愿赚取起伏不定的15%长期回报，也不要平平稳稳的12%。",[14,998,999],{},"如果你们在年度股东大会上遇到Ajit，记得向他深深鞠个躬。",[14,1001,1002],{},"目前正在讨论、几乎肯定会生效的新规则，将要求伯克希尔调整董事会的构成——增加符合法定\"独立性\"标准的董事。",[14,1004,1005,1006,1009],{},"在此基础上，我们将增加一项我们认为重要但绝非决定性的独立性检验标准：我们将选择那些个人或其家族对伯克希尔有着巨大而真实的持股利益的董事（是指他们或家人在市场上",[646,1007,1008],{},"买入","的股份，而非伯克希尔馈赠或通过期权获得的），我们期望这些利益对他们行为的影响，将远远压过声誉和董事酬劳等其他考量。",[14,1011,1012],{},"这就涉及到一个经常被忽视的关于董事薪酬的问题。上市公司董事的年平均薪酬大约为5万美元。让我困惑的是：比如我们的董事会成员罗恩·奥尔森 (Ron Olson)，可能被认为不够独立，因为他从伯克希尔的法律服务中获得的收入占了他丰厚总收入中的一小部分；而那些把这5万美元董事费视为年收入20%甚至更多的董事们，又怎么能被认为是独立的呢？正如投资公司的故事所揭示的，一位收入严重依赖董事费、而且热切盼望受邀加入更多董事会以赚取更多报酬的董事，是绝不可能得罪CEO或其他董事会成员的——因为后者在很大程度上决定了前者在业界的声誉。如果监管机构认为\"重大的\"金钱利益会腐蚀独立性（事实确实如此），那么他们忽略了一大批潜在的违规者。",[14,1014,1015],{},"在伯克希尔，为了让董事费对我们的董事来说微不足道，我们只象征性地支付一点报酬。此外，为了不让董事们规避公司可能遭遇的任何灾难，我们不为他们购买高管和董事责任保险（这一非正统的做法，顺便一提，多年来为我们的股东节省了数百万美元）。基本上，我们希望董事们的行为是由其决策对自家资产净值的影响来驱动的，而不是由他们的酬劳。这是查理和我作为管理者所遵循的准则，我们认为它同样适用于伯克希尔的董事们。",[14,1017,1018],{},"为了寻找新董事，我们会从股东名单中筛选那些本人或其家族长期持有大量伯克希尔股份——价值数百万美元——的人。达到这一门槛的人自然就满足了我们的两项检验标准：他们关心伯克希尔，而且以股东利益为导向。第三项标准，我们将寻找具有商业敏锐度的人——这种能力可不是随处可见的。",[14,1020,1021],{},"最后，巴菲特家族的成员将继续留在董事会中。他们不是为了在我去世后经营公司，届时也不会获得任何报酬。他们的使命是，在其他CEO接替我之后，替我们的股东和经理人确保伯克希尔独特的企业文化得到延续。",[14,1023,1024],{},"董事会组成的任何变动，都不会改变查理和我经营伯克希尔的方式。我们将继续重实质轻形式，在董事会议中尽量减少走过场和形式主义活动。董事会最重要的职责很可能是挑选查理和我的继任者，这也是他们未来的核心任务。",[14,1026,1027],{},"我们迄今拥有的董事会一直在监督一家以股东利益为导向的企业，始终按照第68-74页所列的经济原则运行（我恳请所有新股东务必阅读）。我们的目标是找到同样忠于这些原则的新董事。",[10,1029,1030],{"id":1030},"审计委员会",[14,1032,1033],{},"审计委员会没有能力做审计。只有公司的外部审计师才能判断管理层声称获得的利润是否可疑。无视这一现实，而把改革重点放在审计委员会的架构和章程上，终将收效甚微。",[14,1035,1036],{},"正如我们先前讨论的，近年来太多的管理者粉饰了公司的数字，使用的会计和经营手段虽然通常合法，却会严重误导投资者。审计人员往往对这些欺骗手段心知肚明，但太多时候选择了沉默。审计委员会最主要的职责就是让审计师把他们知道的事实吐露出来。",[14,1038,1039,1040,1043],{},"要做到这一点，委员会必须确保审计师更担心的是误导委员会成员，而不是得罪管理层。但近年来，审计师的想法恰恰相反。他们通常把CEO而非股东或董事当作自己的客户。这是日常工作关系的自然结果，也因为审计师清楚地知道，不管报表数字如何，是CEO和CFO在付他们的钱、决定他们能否继续留任。最近实施的规则不会从根本上改变这一现实。真正",[646,1041,1042],{},"能够","打破这种巴结关系的，是审计委员会明确地把审计师推上火线，让他们明白：如果不如实披露所知或所疑之事，将面临高额的经济处罚。",[14,1045,1046],{},"我认为，审计委员会可以通过向审计师提出以下四个问题来达到这一目的。审计师的回答应当记录在案，并向股东报告。这四个问题是：",[1048,1049,1050,1053,1056,1059],"ol",{},[642,1051,1052],{},"如果完全由贵审计师来编制本公司的财务报表，与管理层选择的方法相比，是否会有任何不同之处？这个问题应涵盖重大和非重大的差异。如果审计师的做法有所不同，则应同时披露管理层的观点和审计师的回应。然后由审计委员会来评判事实。",[642,1054,1055],{},"如果贵审计师是一名投资者，你是否认为——用通俗易懂的语言——已经收到了理解公司在报告期内财务表现所必需的全部信息？",[642,1057,1058],{},"如果贵审计师担任本公司的CEO，你认为公司是否遵循了与之相同的内部审计程序？如果没有，差异在哪里，原因是什么？",[642,1060,1061],{},"贵审计师是否知悉任何以将收入或费用从一个报告期转移至另一个报告期为目的或效果的行为——不管是会计层面还是经营层面的？\n如果审计委员会提出这些问题，那么委员会的组成——大多数改革的焦点——就变得无关紧要了。此外，这一做法还能节省时间和成本。当审计师被推上火线时，他们会尽职尽责。如果不把他们推上去嘛……我们已经看到了后果。",[14,1063,1064],{},"我们列出的这些问题应当至少在财报对外发布的一周之前提出。这样的时间安排可以让审计师与管理层之间的分歧在委员会面前充分讨论并得到解决。如果时间太紧——如果审计师和委员会沟通时财报发布已经迫在眉睫——委员会就会在压力下沦为橡皮图章。匆忙是准确的大敌。事实上，我认为SEC最近缩短报告截止日期的做法，会损害股东收到的信息质量。查理和我认为这条规定是个错误，应该予以撤销。",[14,1066,1067],{},"我们这四个问题的主要好处在于，它们能起到防患于未然的作用。一旦审计师知道审计委员会会要求他们积极地为管理层的行为背书，而不是仅仅默认，他们就会在问题发生的早期就出面制止——远在那些虚假数字根深蒂固于公司账目之前。对诉讼风险的恐惧会促使他们这样做。",[14,1069,1070],{},"给投资者三个建议：第一，提防会计可疑的公司。如果一家公司还在拒绝将期权成本费用化，或者其养老金假设过于天真，那就要当心了。当管理层在看得见的地方偷工减料，很可能在幕后也是如法炮制。厨房里绝不可能只有一只蟑螂。",[14,1072,1073],{},"大肆鼓吹EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）尤其是一种有害的做法。这样做暗示折旧不是真正的费用，因为它是\"非现金\"项目。这完全是一派胡言。事实上，折旧是一种特别不讨喜的费用，因为它所代表的现金支出是预先支付的——在所购买的资产为企业产生任何效益之前。想象一下，在年初，一家公司预付了全体员工未来十年的薪酬（就像你预付现金购买一项使用寿命为十年的固定资产一样）。在接下来的九年里，薪酬就会变成一项\"非现金\"费用——只是对今年设立的预付薪酬资产的逐年递减。在这种情况下，不知道还有谁敢说第二年到第十年记录的费用只是一种簿记形式？",[14,1075,1076,1077,1080],{},"第二，晦涩难懂的财务附注通常意味着管理层不值得信赖。如果你看不懂一条附注或管理层的解释说明，那通常是因为CEO压根就不想让你看懂。安然公司对某些交易的描述，",[646,1078,1079],{},"到现在","还让我困惑不已。",[14,1082,1083],{},"第三，要警惕那些热衷于高调宣传利润预测和增长预期的公司。企业很少能在风平浪静、毫无意外的环境中运营，收益也不会平平稳稳地增长（当然，投资银行家的招股说明书除外）。",[14,1085,1086,1087,1090,1091,1094,1095,1098],{},"查理和我不仅不知道我们旗下企业",[646,1088,1089],{},"明年","能赚多少钱——我们甚至不知道",[646,1092,1093],{},"下一季度","的数字。我们对那些经常声称能预见未来的CEO深表怀疑——如果他们每次都恰好达到了预定目标，我们就更加难以置信了。那些一直保证能\"达标\"的管理者，总有一天会被诱惑去",[646,1096,1097],{},"编造","数字。",[10,1100,1101],{"id":1101},"股东指定慈善捐赠",[14,1103,1104],{},"约97.3%的有效股份参与了伯克希尔2002年的股东指定捐赠计划，捐赠总额为1,650万美元。",[14,1106,1107],{},"22年来，伯克希尔已按照股东的意愿累计捐出1.97亿美元。伯克希尔的其他慈善捐赠由各子公司自行进行，延续它们在被收购前就有的慈善模式（前所有者自行负责的个人慈善除外）。2002年，我们旗下子公司总计捐赠了2,400万美元，其中包括400万美元的实物捐赠。",[14,1109,1110],{},[646,1111,1112],{},"想要参与未来的计划，你必须持有登记在实际持有人名下（而非经纪人、银行或存管机构代名人名下）的A类股。2003年8月31日之前未完成此项登记的股份将无资格参与2003年的计划。收到我们的表格后，请尽快填写并寄回，以免搁置或遗忘。逾期递交的指定捐赠将不予受理。",[10,1114,1115],{"id":1115},"年度股东大会",[14,1117,1118],{},"今年的股东大会将于5月3日周六举行，地点依然是市政礼堂 (Civic Auditorium)。大门早上7点开放，短片8点半播放，正式会议9点半开始。中午短暂休息用餐（市政礼堂的餐饮摊位供应三明治）。除此之外，查理和我将一直回答大家的问题直到下午3点半。请亮出你们的绝招。",[14,1120,1121],{},"随附在年报中的委托书材料说明了如何获取入场凭证以参加大会和其他活动。至于机票、酒店和租车预订，我们再次签约美国运通 (American Express)（电话800-799-6634）为大家提供特别协助。每年他们都为我们提供出色的服务，在此向他们致谢。",[14,1123,1124],{},"一如既往，我们将安排小巴士在主要酒店与会场之间往返。会后，小巴士还会送大家回酒店，或前往内布拉斯加家具店、波仙珠宝店 (Borsheim's) 和机场。不过，有一辆自己的车可能还是更方便。",[14,1126,1127,1128,1131],{},"今年，我们的伯克希尔产品和服务展区将比以往更大更好。所以请准备好大手笔",[646,1129,1130],{},"消费","。我想大家会特别喜欢逛厨艺之家的展位，说不定还能碰到Doris和Sheila。",[14,1133,1134],{},"盖可保险会在会场设立一个展位，配备来自全国各地的顶尖保险顾问，随时为大家提供汽车保险报价。在大多数情况下，盖可保险能提供8%的股东特别折扣。这一特别优惠在我们运营的49个司法管辖区中的41个均有效。请带上你们现有的保险资料，看看我们能否帮你省钱。",[14,1136,1137],{},"周六，在奥马哈机场，我们将照例展示NetJets®的各类飞机供大家参观。请在市政礼堂向业务代表咨询参观事宜。如果你在周末买了足够多的东西，你可能真需要自己的飞机才能把它们运回家。而且，如果你真的买下飞机的部分所有权，我将亲自保证你收到鲜果布衣的一包三条装内裤。",[14,1139,1140],{},"位于第72街道奇街与太平洋街之间、占地77英亩的内布拉斯加家具店，将再次推出\"伯克希尔周末\"特惠价，我们将为股东提供通常只有员工才能享受的折扣。这一特价活动始于六年前，\"周末\"期间的销售额从1997年的530万美元增长到2002年的1,420万美元。",[14,1142,1143],{},"要享受折扣，你必须在5月1日周四至5月5日周一期间购物，并出示参会凭证。这期间的特惠价甚至适用于若干声望卓著的品牌——它们通常有铁一般的不打折规定——但为了股东周末的精神，破例为大家开了绿灯。我们感谢他们的配合。NFM的营业时间是工作日上午10点至晚上9点，周日上午10点至下午6点。今年的周六，下午6点至晚上10点，我们将举办一场股东专属活动。我将亲自到场，吃热狗、喝可乐。",[14,1145,1146,1147,1150],{},"波仙珠宝店——全美最大的珠宝店（仅次于蒂芙尼 (Tiffany) 的曼哈顿旗舰店）——将举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是5月2日周五下午6点至晚上10点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场主打活动在5月4日周日上午9点至下午5点。记得让查理在你的",[646,1148,1149],{},"收银条","上签名。",[14,1152,1153],{},"从周四到周一，全程提供股东特惠价。如果你想避开周五晚和周日的大客流，可以在其他时间前来，记得表明股东身份即可。周六，波仙营业至下午6点。波仙的毛利率比主要竞争对手整整低了二十个百分点，所以你买得越多，省得越多（至少我太太和女儿是这么告诉我的）。",[14,1155,1156,1157,1160],{},"周日下午，在波仙珠宝店外的大厅里，我们将邀请几位世界顶级桥牌高手与股东们对弈。预计鲍勃·哈曼 (Bob Hamman)、莎伦·奥斯伯格 (Sharon Osberg)、弗雷德·吉特尔曼 (Fred Gitelman) 和雪莉·温斯托克 (Sheri Winestock) 将坐镇各桌。两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫 (Patrick Wolff) 也将在大厅亮相，蒙眼迎战所有挑战者！去年，Patrick",[646,1158,1159],{},"同时","与六位对手对弈——蒙着眼睛——结果平生第一次输了一盘。（不过另外五盘他都赢了。）从那以后他就加紧训练，计划今年重新开启连胜纪录。",[14,1162,1163],{},"此外，比尔·罗伯蒂 (Bill Robertie)——历史上仅有的两位两次赢得双陆棋世界冠军的棋手之一——也将到场检验各位的双陆棋功力。最后，我们还有一位新面孔：彼得·莫里斯 (Peter Morris)，1991年世界拼字大赛冠军。Peter将同时在五块棋盘上对弈（不过他不蒙眼），并允许挑战者使用拼字词典。",[14,1165,1166,1167,1170],{},"我们还要在大厅里测试各位的歌喉。我的朋友、来自费城的阿尔·奥利 (Al Oehrle) 将担任钢琴伴奏，什么歌什么调都行。我太太苏珊和我将领唱。",[646,1168,1169],{},"她","唱得非常好。",[14,1172,1173,1174,1177],{},"我最爱的牛排馆——Gorat's——将再次在5月4日周日为伯克希尔股东专门开放，营业时间从下午4点到晚上10点。请记住，周日去Gorat's必须预约。预约请在4月1日（",[646,1175,1176],{},"但不要提前","）拨打402-551-3733。如果周日订满了，可以试试你在城里的其他晚上。记得展现你的老练，点一份三分熟的丁骨牛排加双份薯饼。",[14,1179,1180],{},"今年不会有棒球赛了。去年我的快速球时速被测出只有5英里之后，我决定挂靴了。所以，周六晚上大家还是在NFM见吧。",[1182,1183,1186,1191],"section",{"className":1184,"dataFootnotes":632},[1185],"footnotes",[21,1187,1190],{"className":1188,"id":631},[1189],"sr-only","Footnotes",[1048,1192,1193],{},[642,1194,1196,1197],{"id":1195},"user-content-fn-*","本报告中使用的所有数据均以伯克希尔A类股为准，A类股是1996年以前公司唯一发行在外的股票。B类股的经济利益等于A类股的三十分之一。 ",[627,1198,1203],{"href":1199,"ariaLabel":1200,"className":1201,"dataFootnoteBackref":632},"#user-content-fnref-*","Back to reference 1",[1202],"data-footnote-backref","↩",{"title":632,"searchDepth":1205,"depth":1205,"links":1206},2,[1207,1208],{"id":23,"depth":1205,"text":23},{"id":631,"depth":1205,"text":1190},"致股东信",null,"2002年巴菲特致股东信，讨论会计准则问题、投资收益表现、保险业务及公司治理","md",{},true,73,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1211},"2002 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","DrrqzWqDp0nlJpknq1b0ckCIDkGNiksk32N-glYEu9Q","buffett",[1224,1228,1232,1236,1239,1242,1245,1249,1252,1255,1259,1262,1265,1269,1272,1275,1279,1282,1285,1289,1292,1295,1299,1302,1305,1309,1312,1315,1319,1322,1325,1329,1332,1335,1339,1342,1345,1349,1352,1355,1359,1362,1365,1369,1372,1375,1379,1382,1385,1389,1392,1395,1399,1402,1405,1409,1412,1415,1419,1422,1425,1429,1432,1435,1439,1442,1445,1449,1452,1455,1459,1462,1465,1469,1472,1475,1479,1482,1485,1489,1492,1495,1499,1502,1505,1509,1512,1515,1519,1522,1525,1529,1532,1535,1539,1542,1545,1549,1552,1555,1559,1562,1566,1569,1573,1576,1580,1583,1587,1590,1594,1597,1601,1604,1608,1611,1615,1618,1622,1625,1629,1632,1636,1639,1643,1646,1650,1653,1657,1660,1664,1667,1671,1674,1678,1681,1685,1688,1692,1695,1699,1702,1706,1709,1713,1716,1720,1723,1727,1730,1734,1737,1741,1744,1748,1751,1755,1758,1762,1765,1769,1772,1776,1779,1783,1786,1790,1793,1797,1800,1804,1807,1811,1814,1818,1821,1825,1828,1829,1832,1836,1839,1843,1846,1850,1853,1857,1860,1864,1867,1871,1874,1878,1881,1885,1888,1892,1895,1899,1902,1906,1909,1913,1916,1920,1923,1927,1930,1934,1937,1941,1944,1948,1951,1955,1958,1962,1965,1969,1972,1976,1979,1983,1986,1990,1993,1997,2000,2004,2007,2011,2014,2018,2021,2025,2029,2033,2037,2041,2045,2049,2053,2057,2061,2065,2069,2073,2077,2081,2085,2089,2093,2097,2101,2105,2109,2113,2117,2121,2125,2129,2133,2137,2141,2145,2149,2153,2157,2161,2165,2169,2173,2177,2181,2185,2189,2193,2197,2201,2205,2209,2213,2217,2221],{"title":1225,"slug":1226,"category":1209,"order":1227},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1229,"slug":1230,"category":1231,"order":1227},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1233,"slug":1234,"category":1235,"order":1227},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1237,"slug":1238,"category":1209,"order":1205},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1240,"slug":1241,"category":1231,"order":1205},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1243,"slug":1244,"category":1235,"order":1205},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1246,"slug":1247,"category":1209,"order":1248},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1250,"slug":1251,"category":1231,"order":1248},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1253,"slug":1254,"category":1235,"order":1248},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1256,"slug":1257,"category":1209,"order":1258},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1260,"slug":1261,"category":1231,"order":1258},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1263,"slug":1264,"category":1235,"order":1258},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1266,"slug":1267,"category":1209,"order":1268},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1270,"slug":1271,"category":1231,"order":1268},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1273,"slug":1274,"category":1235,"order":1268},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1276,"slug":1277,"category":1209,"order":1278},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1280,"slug":1281,"category":1231,"order":1278},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1283,"slug":1284,"category":1235,"order":1278},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1286,"slug":1287,"category":1209,"order":1288},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1290,"slug":1291,"category":1231,"order":1288},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1293,"slug":1294,"category":1235,"order":1288},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1296,"slug":1297,"category":1209,"order":1298},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1300,"slug":1301,"category":1231,"order":1298},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1303,"slug":1304,"category":1235,"order":1298},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1306,"slug":1307,"category":1209,"order":1308},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1310,"slug":1311,"category":1231,"order":1308},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1313,"slug":1314,"category":1235,"order":1308},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1316,"slug":1317,"category":1209,"order":1318},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1320,"slug":1321,"category":1231,"order":1318},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1323,"slug":1324,"category":1235,"order":1318},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1326,"slug":1327,"category":1209,"order":1328},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1330,"slug":1331,"category":1231,"order":1328},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1333,"slug":1334,"category":1235,"order":1328},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1336,"slug":1337,"category":1209,"order":1338},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1340,"slug":1341,"category":1231,"order":1338},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1343,"slug":1344,"category":1235,"order":1338},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1346,"slug":1347,"category":1209,"order":1348},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1350,"slug":1351,"category":1231,"order":1348},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1353,"slug":1354,"category":1235,"order":1348},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1356,"slug":1357,"category":1209,"order":1358},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1360,"slug":1361,"category":1231,"order":1358},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1363,"slug":1364,"category":1235,"order":1358},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1366,"slug":1367,"category":1209,"order":1368},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1370,"slug":1371,"category":1231,"order":1368},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1373,"slug":1374,"category":1235,"order":1368},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1376,"slug":1377,"category":1209,"order":1378},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":1380,"slug":1381,"category":1231,"order":1378},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1383,"slug":1384,"category":1235,"order":1378},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1386,"slug":1387,"category":1209,"order":1388},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1390,"slug":1391,"category":1231,"order":1388},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1393,"slug":1394,"category":1235,"order":1388},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1396,"slug":1397,"category":1209,"order":1398},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1400,"slug":1401,"category":1231,"order":1398},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1403,"slug":1404,"category":1235,"order":1398},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1406,"slug":1407,"category":1209,"order":1408},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":1410,"slug":1411,"category":1231,"order":1408},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1413,"slug":1414,"category":1235,"order":1408},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1416,"slug":1417,"category":1209,"order":1418},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1420,"slug":1421,"category":1231,"order":1418},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1423,"slug":1424,"category":1235,"order":1418},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1426,"slug":1427,"category":1209,"order":1428},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1430,"slug":1431,"category":1231,"order":1428},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1433,"slug":1434,"category":1235,"order":1428},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1436,"slug":1437,"category":1209,"order":1438},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1440,"slug":1441,"category":1231,"order":1438},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1443,"slug":1444,"category":1235,"order":1438},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1446,"slug":1447,"category":1209,"order":1448},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1450,"slug":1451,"category":1231,"order":1448},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1453,"slug":1454,"category":1235,"order":1448},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1456,"slug":1457,"category":1209,"order":1458},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1460,"slug":1461,"category":1231,"order":1458},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1463,"slug":1464,"category":1235,"order":1458},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1466,"slug":1467,"category":1209,"order":1468},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1470,"slug":1471,"category":1231,"order":1468},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1473,"slug":1474,"category":1235,"order":1468},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1476,"slug":1477,"category":1209,"order":1478},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1480,"slug":1481,"category":1231,"order":1478},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1483,"slug":1484,"category":1235,"order":1478},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1486,"slug":1487,"category":1209,"order":1488},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1490,"slug":1491,"category":1231,"order":1488},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1493,"slug":1494,"category":1235,"order":1488},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1496,"slug":1497,"category":1209,"order":1498},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1500,"slug":1501,"category":1231,"order":1498},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1503,"slug":1504,"category":1235,"order":1498},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1506,"slug":1507,"category":1209,"order":1508},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1510,"slug":1511,"category":1231,"order":1508},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1513,"slug":1514,"category":1235,"order":1508},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1516,"slug":1517,"category":1209,"order":1518},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1520,"slug":1521,"category":1231,"order":1518},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1523,"slug":1524,"category":1235,"order":1518},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1526,"slug":1527,"category":1209,"order":1528},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1530,"slug":1531,"category":1231,"order":1528},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1533,"slug":1534,"category":1235,"order":1528},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1536,"slug":1537,"category":1209,"order":1538},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1540,"slug":1541,"category":1231,"order":1538},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1543,"slug":1544,"category":1235,"order":1538},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1546,"slug":1547,"category":1209,"order":1548},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":1550,"slug":1551,"category":1231,"order":1548},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":1553,"slug":1554,"category":1235,"order":1548},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1556,"slug":1557,"category":1209,"order":1558},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":1560,"slug":1561,"category":1231,"order":1558},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1563,"slug":1564,"category":1209,"order":1565},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":1567,"slug":1568,"category":1231,"order":1565},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1570,"slug":1571,"category":1209,"order":1572},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1574,"slug":1575,"category":1231,"order":1572},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1577,"slug":1578,"category":1209,"order":1579},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1581,"slug":1582,"category":1231,"order":1579},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1584,"slug":1585,"category":1209,"order":1586},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1588,"slug":1589,"category":1231,"order":1586},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1591,"slug":1592,"category":1209,"order":1593},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1595,"slug":1596,"category":1231,"order":1593},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1598,"slug":1599,"category":1209,"order":1600},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1602,"slug":1603,"category":1231,"order":1600},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1605,"slug":1606,"category":1209,"order":1607},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1609,"slug":1610,"category":1231,"order":1607},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1612,"slug":1613,"category":1209,"order":1614},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1616,"slug":1617,"category":1231,"order":1614},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1619,"slug":1620,"category":1209,"order":1621},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1623,"slug":1624,"category":1231,"order":1621},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1626,"slug":1627,"category":1209,"order":1628},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1630,"slug":1631,"category":1231,"order":1628},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1633,"slug":1634,"category":1209,"order":1635},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1637,"slug":1638,"category":1231,"order":1635},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1640,"slug":1641,"category":1209,"order":1642},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1644,"slug":1645,"category":1231,"order":1642},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1647,"slug":1648,"category":1209,"order":1649},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1651,"slug":1652,"category":1231,"order":1649},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1654,"slug":1655,"category":1209,"order":1656},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1658,"slug":1659,"category":1231,"order":1656},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1661,"slug":1662,"category":1209,"order":1663},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1665,"slug":1666,"category":1231,"order":1663},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1668,"slug":1669,"category":1209,"order":1670},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1672,"slug":1673,"category":1231,"order":1670},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1675,"slug":1676,"category":1209,"order":1677},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1679,"slug":1680,"category":1231,"order":1677},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1682,"slug":1683,"category":1209,"order":1684},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1686,"slug":1687,"category":1231,"order":1684},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1689,"slug":1690,"category":1209,"order":1691},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1693,"slug":1694,"category":1231,"order":1691},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1696,"slug":1697,"category":1209,"order":1698},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1700,"slug":1701,"category":1231,"order":1698},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1703,"slug":1704,"category":1209,"order":1705},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1707,"slug":1708,"category":1231,"order":1705},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1710,"slug":1711,"category":1209,"order":1712},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1714,"slug":1715,"category":1231,"order":1712},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1717,"slug":1718,"category":1209,"order":1719},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1721,"slug":1722,"category":1231,"order":1719},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1724,"slug":1725,"category":1209,"order":1726},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1728,"slug":1729,"category":1231,"order":1726},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1731,"slug":1732,"category":1209,"order":1733},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1735,"slug":1736,"category":1231,"order":1733},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1738,"slug":1739,"category":1209,"order":1740},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1742,"slug":1743,"category":1231,"order":1740},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1745,"slug":1746,"category":1209,"order":1747},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1749,"slug":1750,"category":1231,"order":1747},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1752,"slug":1753,"category":1209,"order":1754},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1756,"slug":1757,"category":1231,"order":1754},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1759,"slug":1760,"category":1209,"order":1761},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1763,"slug":1764,"category":1231,"order":1761},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1766,"slug":1767,"category":1209,"order":1768},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1770,"slug":1771,"category":1231,"order":1768},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1773,"slug":1774,"category":1209,"order":1775},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1777,"slug":1778,"category":1231,"order":1775},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1780,"slug":1781,"category":1209,"order":1782},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1784,"slug":1785,"category":1231,"order":1782},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1787,"slug":1788,"category":1209,"order":1789},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1791,"slug":1792,"category":1231,"order":1789},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1794,"slug":1795,"category":1209,"order":1796},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1798,"slug":1799,"category":1231,"order":1796},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1801,"slug":1802,"category":1209,"order":1803},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1805,"slug":1806,"category":1231,"order":1803},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1808,"slug":1809,"category":1209,"order":1810},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1812,"slug":1813,"category":1231,"order":1810},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1815,"slug":1816,"category":1209,"order":1817},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1819,"slug":1820,"category":1231,"order":1817},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1822,"slug":1823,"category":1209,"order":1824},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1826,"slug":1827,"category":1231,"order":1824},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":5,"slug":1219,"category":1209,"order":1215},{"title":1830,"slug":1831,"category":1231,"order":1215},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1833,"slug":1834,"category":1209,"order":1835},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1837,"slug":1838,"category":1231,"order":1835},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1840,"slug":1841,"category":1209,"order":1842},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1844,"slug":1845,"category":1231,"order":1842},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1847,"slug":1848,"category":1209,"order":1849},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1851,"slug":1852,"category":1231,"order":1849},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1854,"slug":1855,"category":1209,"order":1856},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1858,"slug":1859,"category":1231,"order":1856},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1861,"slug":1862,"category":1209,"order":1863},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1865,"slug":1866,"category":1231,"order":1863},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1868,"slug":1869,"category":1209,"order":1870},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1872,"slug":1873,"category":1231,"order":1870},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1875,"slug":1876,"category":1209,"order":1877},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1879,"slug":1880,"category":1231,"order":1877},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1882,"slug":1883,"category":1209,"order":1884},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1886,"slug":1887,"category":1231,"order":1884},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1889,"slug":1890,"category":1209,"order":1891},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1893,"slug":1894,"category":1231,"order":1891},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1896,"slug":1897,"category":1209,"order":1898},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1900,"slug":1901,"category":1231,"order":1898},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1903,"slug":1904,"category":1209,"order":1905},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1907,"slug":1908,"category":1231,"order":1905},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1910,"slug":1911,"category":1209,"order":1912},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1914,"slug":1915,"category":1231,"order":1912},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1917,"slug":1918,"category":1209,"order":1919},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1921,"slug":1922,"category":1231,"order":1919},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1924,"slug":1925,"category":1209,"order":1926},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1928,"slug":1929,"category":1231,"order":1926},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1931,"slug":1932,"category":1209,"order":1933},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1935,"slug":1936,"category":1231,"order":1933},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1938,"slug":1939,"category":1209,"order":1940},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1942,"slug":1943,"category":1231,"order":1940},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1945,"slug":1946,"category":1209,"order":1947},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1949,"slug":1950,"category":1231,"order":1947},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1952,"slug":1953,"category":1209,"order":1954},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1956,"slug":1957,"category":1231,"order":1954},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1959,"slug":1960,"category":1209,"order":1961},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1963,"slug":1964,"category":1231,"order":1961},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1966,"slug":1967,"category":1209,"order":1968},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1970,"slug":1971,"category":1231,"order":1968},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1973,"slug":1974,"category":1209,"order":1975},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1977,"slug":1978,"category":1231,"order":1975},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1980,"slug":1981,"category":1209,"order":1982},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1984,"slug":1985,"category":1231,"order":1982},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1987,"slug":1988,"category":1209,"order":1989},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1991,"slug":1992,"category":1231,"order":1989},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1994,"slug":1995,"category":1209,"order":1996},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1998,"slug":1999,"category":1231,"order":1996},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2001,"slug":2002,"category":1209,"order":2003},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2005,"slug":2006,"category":1231,"order":2003},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2008,"slug":2009,"category":1209,"order":2010},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2012,"slug":2013,"category":1231,"order":2010},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2015,"slug":2016,"category":1209,"order":2017},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":2019,"slug":2020,"category":1231,"order":2017},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":2022,"slug":2023,"category":1231,"order":2024},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":2026,"slug":2027,"category":1231,"order":2028},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":2030,"slug":2031,"category":1231,"order":2032},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":2034,"slug":2035,"category":1231,"order":2036},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":2038,"slug":2039,"category":1231,"order":2040},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":2042,"slug":2043,"category":1231,"order":2044},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":2046,"slug":2047,"category":1231,"order":2048},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":2050,"slug":2051,"category":1231,"order":2052},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":2054,"slug":2055,"category":1231,"order":2056},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":2058,"slug":2059,"category":1231,"order":2060},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":2062,"slug":2063,"category":1231,"order":2064},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":2066,"slug":2067,"category":1231,"order":2068},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":2070,"slug":2071,"category":1231,"order":2072},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":2074,"slug":2075,"category":1231,"order":2076},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":2078,"slug":2079,"category":1231,"order":2080},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":2082,"slug":2083,"category":1231,"order":2084},"亚利桑那州立大学雷鸟全球领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安采访沃伦·巴菲特（2015年）","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":2086,"slug":2087,"category":1231,"order":2088},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":2090,"slug":2091,"category":1231,"order":2092},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":2094,"slug":2095,"category":1231,"order":2096},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":2098,"slug":2099,"category":1231,"order":2100},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 年哥伦比亚大学高校面谈——人生最美好的事是什么？》","ba-fei-te-2017-nian-ge-lun-bi-ya-da-xue-gao-xiao-mian-tan-ren-sheng-zui-mei-hao-de-shi-shi-shi-me",120,{"title":2102,"slug":2103,"category":1231,"order":2104},"巴菲特：2017年对话北京大学学生：最好的投资是投资自己","ba-fei-te-2017nian-dui-hua-bei-jing-da-xue-xue-sheng-zui-hao-de-tou-zi-shi-tou-zi-zi-ji",121,{"title":2106,"slug":2107,"category":1231,"order":2108},"巴菲特：2017年接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",122,{"title":2110,"slug":2111,"category":1231,"order":2112},"巴菲特：2017年接受PBS NEWS专访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-pbs-newszhuan-fang",123,{"title":2114,"slug":2115,"category":1231,"order":2116},"巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te",124,{"title":2118,"slug":2119,"category":1231,"order":2120},"巴菲特：2017年美国的未来","ba-fei-te-2017nian-mei-guo-de-wei-lai",125,{"title":2122,"slug":2123,"category":1231,"order":2124},"巴菲特：2018年再度邀请北大光华学子共进午餐问答全记录","ba-fei-te-2018nian-zai-du-yao-qing-bei-da-guang-hua-xue-zi-gong-jin-wu-can-wen-da-quan-ji-lu",126,{"title":2126,"slug":2127,"category":1231,"order":2128},"巴菲特：2018年时代周刊-分享美国财富的秘密","ba-fei-te-2018nian-shi-dai-zhou-kan-fen-xiang-mei-guo-cai-fu-de-mi-mi",127,{"title":2130,"slug":2131,"category":1231,"order":2132},"巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang",128,{"title":2134,"slug":2135,"category":1231,"order":2136},"巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",129,{"title":2138,"slug":2139,"category":1231,"order":2140},"巴菲特：2020年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2020nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",130,{"title":2142,"slug":2143,"category":1231,"order":2144},"巴菲特：2020年给内布拉斯加大学林肯分校2020届毕业生的建议","ba-fei-te-2020nian-gei-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-2020jie-bi-ye-sheng-de-jian-yi",131,{"title":2146,"slug":2147,"category":1231,"order":2148},"巴菲特：2021年专访《成为巴菲特》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-zhuan-fang-cheng-wei-ba-fei-te",132,{"title":2150,"slug":2151,"category":1231,"order":2152},"巴菲特：2021年巴菲特芒格接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2021nian-ba-fei-te-mang-ge-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",133,{"title":2154,"slug":2155,"category":1231,"order":2156},"巴菲特：2021年让观众无言以对 !有史以来最鼓舞人心的演讲之一","ba-fei-te-2021nian-rang-guan-zhong-wu-yan-yi-dui-you-shi-yi-lai-zui-gu-wu-ren-xin-de-yan-jiang-zhi-yi",134,{"title":2158,"slug":2159,"category":1231,"order":2160},"巴菲特：2021年采访《沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略：如何像传奇一样生活和投资（完整访谈）》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-cai-fang-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-tou-zi-ce-lue-ru-he-xiang-chuan-qi-yi-yang-sheng-huo-he-tou-zi-wan-zheng-fang-tan",135,{"title":2162,"slug":2163,"category":1231,"order":2164},"巴菲特：2022年32 届年度格雷厄姆和多德早餐会","ba-fei-te-2022nian-32-jie-nian-du-ge-lei-e-mu-he-duo-de-zao-can-hui",136,{"title":2166,"slug":2167,"category":1231,"order":2168},"巴菲特：2022年和查理罗斯对谈","ba-fei-te-2022nian-he-cha-li-luo-si-dui-tan",137,{"title":2170,"slug":2171,"category":1231,"order":2172},"巴菲特：2023年 查理芒格：伯克希尔的总设计师","ba-fei-te-2023nian-cha-li-mang-ge-bo-ke-xi-er-de-zong-she-ji-shi",138,{"title":2174,"slug":2175,"category":1231,"order":2176},"巴菲特：初学者如何投资--3 条简单的规则","ba-fei-te-2023nian-chu-xue-zhe-ru-he-tou-zi-3-tiao-jian-dan-de-gui-ze",139,{"title":2178,"slug":2179,"category":1231,"order":2180},"巴菲特：2023年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2023nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",140,{"title":2182,"slug":2183,"category":1231,"order":2184},"巴菲特：每个投资者都会犯的 10 个错误","ba-fei-te-2023nian-mei-ge-tou-zi-zhe-du-hui-fan-de-10-ge-cuo-wu",141,{"title":2186,"slug":2187,"category":1231,"order":2188},"巴菲特：2025年接受cbs采访","ba-fei-te-2025nian-jie-shou-cbscai-fang",142,{"title":2190,"slug":2191,"category":1231,"order":2192},"2026伯克希尔股东大会 CNBC专访巴菲特（完整纯中文）","2026bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui-cnbczhuan-fang-ba-fei-te",143,{"title":2194,"slug":2195,"category":1231,"order":2196},"巴菲特：2026年最新采访 CNBC《财经论谈》","ba-fei-te-2026nian-zui-xin-cai-fang-cnbc-cai-jing-lun-tan",144,{"title":2198,"slug":2199,"category":1231,"order":2200},"伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来","bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai",145,{"title":2202,"slug":2203,"category":1231,"order":2204},"巴菲特72条投资经典语录","ba-fei-te-72tiao-tou-zi-jing-dian-yu-lu",146,{"title":2206,"slug":2207,"category":1231,"order":2208},"巴菲特：你应该了解珠宝生意","ba-fei-te-ni-ying-gai-liao-jie-zhu-bao-sheng-yi",147,{"title":2210,"slug":2211,"category":1231,"order":2212},"巴菲特：如何建立能力圈","ba-fei-te-ru-he-jian-li-neng-li-quan",148,{"title":2214,"slug":2215,"category":1231,"order":2216},"巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑","ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji",149,{"title":2218,"slug":2219,"category":1231,"order":2220},"康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值","kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi",150,{"title":2222,"slug":2223,"category":1231,"order":2224},"考夫曼：Glenair 企业文化","kao-fu-man-glenair-qi-ye-wen-hua",151,[2226,2230,2233,2236,2239,2242,2245,2248,2251,2255,2259,2262,2265,2268,2271,2274,2277,2280,2283,2286,2289,2292,2295,2298,2301,2305,2308,2311,2314,2317,2320,2323,2326,2329,2332,2336,2339,2342,2345,2348,2351,2354,2357,2361,2364,2367,2370,2373,2376,2379,2382,2385,2388,2391,2394,2397,2400,2403,2406,2409,2412,2415,2418,2421,2424,2427,2430,2433,2436,2439,2442,2447,2451,2455,2459,2463,2467,2471,2475,2479,2483,2487,2491,2495,2499,2503,2507,2511,2515,2519,2523],{"title":2227,"slug":2228,"category":2229,"order":1227},"本分","benfen","核心哲学",{"title":2231,"slug":2232,"category":2229,"order":1205},"平常心","pingchangxin",{"title":2234,"slug":2235,"category":2229,"order":1248},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing",{"title":2237,"slug":2238,"category":2229,"order":1258},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui",{"title":2240,"slug":2241,"category":2229,"order":1268},"能力圈","nengliquan",{"title":2243,"slug":2244,"category":2229,"order":1278},"不做什么","buzuoshenme",{"title":2246,"slug":2247,"category":2229,"order":1288},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou",{"title":2249,"slug":2250,"category":2229,"order":1298},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang",{"title":2252,"slug":2253,"category":2254,"order":1308},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","投资理念",{"title":2256,"slug":2257,"category":2258,"order":1318},"负债","fuzhai","财务指标",{"title":2260,"slug":2261,"category":2254,"order":1318},"商业模式","shangyemoshi",{"title":2263,"slug":2264,"category":2254,"order":1328},"护城河","huchenghe",{"title":2266,"slug":2267,"category":2258,"order":1328},"净现金","jingxianjin",{"title":2269,"slug":2270,"category":2258,"order":1338},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing",{"title":2272,"slug":2273,"category":2254,"order":1338},"现金流","xianjinliu",{"title":2275,"slug":2276,"category":2258,"order":1348},"真实利润","zhenshilirun",{"title":2278,"slug":2279,"category":2254,"order":1348},"折现","zhexian",{"title":2281,"slug":2282,"category":2254,"order":1358},"安全边际","anquanbianji",{"title":2284,"slug":2285,"category":2258,"order":1358},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan",{"title":2287,"slug":2288,"category":2254,"order":1368},"基本面","jibenmian",{"title":2290,"slug":2291,"category":2254,"order":1378},"机会成本","jihuichengben",{"title":2293,"slug":2294,"category":2254,"order":1388},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou",{"title":2296,"slug":2297,"category":2254,"order":1398},"投机","touji",{"title":2299,"slug":2300,"category":2254,"order":1408},"止损","zhisun",{"title":2302,"slug":2303,"category":2304,"order":1418},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业经营",{"title":2306,"slug":2307,"category":2304,"order":1428},"品牌","pinpai",{"title":2309,"slug":2310,"category":2304,"order":1438},"差异化","chayihua",{"title":2312,"slug":2313,"category":2304,"order":1448},"用户体验","yonghutiyan",{"title":2315,"slug":2316,"category":2304,"order":1458},"渠道","qudao",{"title":2318,"slug":2319,"category":2304,"order":1468},"平台","pingtai",{"title":2321,"slug":2322,"category":2304,"order":1478},"生态系统","shengtaixitong",{"title":2324,"slug":2325,"category":2304,"order":1488},"单一产品","danyichanpin",{"title":2327,"slug":2328,"category":2304,"order":1498},"造钟人","zaozhongren",{"title":2330,"slug":2331,"category":2304,"order":1508},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu",{"title":2333,"slug":2334,"category":2335,"order":1518},"进取心","jinquxin","品格与心性",{"title":2337,"slug":2338,"category":2335,"order":1528},"耐心","naixin",{"title":2340,"slug":2341,"category":2335,"order":1538},"责任心","zerenxin",{"title":2343,"slug":2344,"category":2335,"order":1548},"爱心","aixin",{"title":2346,"slug":2347,"category":2335,"order":1558},"信誉","xinyu",{"title":2349,"slug":2350,"category":2335,"order":1565},"正直","zhengzhi",{"title":2352,"slug":2353,"category":2335,"order":1572},"理性","lixing",{"title":2355,"slug":2356,"category":2335,"order":1579},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi",{"title":2358,"slug":2359,"category":2360,"order":2017},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","访谈实录",{"title":2362,"slug":2363,"category":2360,"order":2024},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua",{"title":2365,"slug":2366,"category":2360,"order":2028},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu",{"title":2368,"slug":2369,"category":2360,"order":2032},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang",{"title":2371,"slug":2372,"category":2360,"order":2036},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang",{"title":2374,"slug":2375,"category":2360,"order":2040},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing",{"title":2377,"slug":2378,"category":2360,"order":2044},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong",{"title":2380,"slug":2381,"category":2360,"order":2048},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan",{"title":2383,"slug":2384,"category":2360,"order":2052},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang",{"title":2386,"slug":2387,"category":2360,"order":2056},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou",{"title":2389,"slug":2390,"category":2360,"order":2060},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu",{"title":2392,"slug":2393,"category":2360,"order":2064},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang",{"title":2395,"slug":2396,"category":2360,"order":2068},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan",{"title":2398,"slug":2399,"category":2360,"order":2072},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu",{"title":2401,"slug":2402,"category":2360,"order":2076},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu",{"title":2404,"slug":2405,"category":2360,"order":2080},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo",{"title":2407,"slug":2408,"category":2360,"order":2084},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang",{"title":2410,"slug":2411,"category":2360,"order":2088},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan",{"title":2413,"slug":2414,"category":2360,"order":2092},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu",{"title":2416,"slug":2417,"category":2360,"order":2096},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus",{"title":2419,"slug":2420,"category":2360,"order":2100},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh",{"title":2422,"slug":2423,"category":2360,"order":2104},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj",{"title":2425,"slug":2426,"category":2360,"order":2108},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao",{"title":2428,"slug":2429,"category":2360,"order":2112},"2013年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang",{"title":2431,"slug":2432,"category":2360,"order":2116},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang",{"title":2434,"slug":2435,"category":2360,"order":2120},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban",{"title":2437,"slug":2438,"category":2360,"order":2124},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu",{"title":2440,"slug":2441,"category":2360,"order":2128},"2025年： 方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing",{"title":2443,"slug":2444,"category":2445,"order":2446},"问答录：第一章 投资大道","dadaotouziwendalu-diyizhangtouzidadao","投资问答录",200,{"title":2448,"slug":2449,"category":2445,"order":2450},"问答录：第二章 商业模式和企业文化","dadaotouziwendalu-dierzhangshangyemoshiheqiyewenhua",201,{"title":2452,"slug":2453,"category":2445,"order":2454},"问答录：第三章 公司点评","dadaotouziwendalu-disanzhanggongsidianping",202,{"title":2456,"slug":2457,"category":2445,"order":2458},"问答录：第四章 人生箴言","dadaotouziwendalu-disizhangrenshengzhenyan",203,{"title":2460,"slug":2461,"category":2445,"order":2462},"问答录：第五章 演讲与访谈","dadaotouziwendalu-diwuzhangyanjiangyufangtan",204,{"title":2464,"slug":2465,"category":2445,"order":2466},"问答录：第六章 更新","dadaotouziwendalu-diliuzhangduzhegengxin",205,{"title":2468,"slug":2469,"category":2445,"order":2470},"商业逻辑篇：第1节：伟大企业","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di1jie-weidaqiye",401,{"title":2472,"slug":2473,"category":2445,"order":2474},"商业逻辑篇：第2节：商业模式","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di2jie-shangyemoshi",402,{"title":2476,"slug":2477,"category":2445,"order":2478},"商业逻辑篇：第3节：企业文化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di3jie-qiyewenhua",403,{"title":2480,"slug":2481,"category":2445,"order":2482},"商业逻辑篇：第4节：产品、差异化与创新","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di4jie-chanpin-chayihua-yu-chuangxin",404,{"title":2484,"slug":2485,"category":2445,"order":2486},"商业逻辑篇：第5节：品牌、营销与广告","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di5jie-pinpai-yingxiao-yu-guanggao",405,{"title":2488,"slug":2489,"category":2445,"order":2490},"商业逻辑篇：第6节：收购和多元化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di6jie-shougouheduoyuanhua",406,{"title":2492,"slug":2493,"category":2445,"order":2494},"商业逻辑篇：第7节：Stop doing list（不为清单）","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di7jie-stop-doing-list-buweiqingdan",407,{"title":2496,"slug":2497,"category":2445,"order":2498},"投资问答录商业逻辑篇：前言：买股票就是买公司","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-qianyan-maiqushoujiiumaishangsi",408,{"title":2500,"slug":2501,"category":2445,"order":2502},"投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念","duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian",410,{"title":2504,"slug":2505,"category":2445,"order":2506},"投资逻辑篇：第2章：投资理解","duanyongping-touziluoji-di2jie-touzilijie",411,{"title":2508,"slug":2509,"category":2445,"order":2510},"投资问答录：第3章 golf和投资","duanyongping-touziluoji-di3zhang-golfhetouzi",412,{"title":2512,"slug":2513,"category":2445,"order":2514},"投资逻辑篇：第4章 财务理解","duanyongping-touziwendalu-touziluoji-di4zhang-caiwulijie",413,{"title":2516,"slug":2517,"category":2445,"order":2518},"投资逻辑篇：第5章：估值逻辑","duanyongping-touziluoji-di5zhang-guzhiluoji",414,{"title":2520,"slug":2521,"category":2445,"order":2522},"投资逻辑篇：第6章 投资方法论","duanyongping-touziluoji-di6zhang-touzifangfalun",415,{"title":2524,"slug":2525,"category":2445,"order":2526},"投资逻辑篇：第7章：案例分析","duanyongping-touziluoji-di7zhang-anlifenxi",416,[2528,2531,2534,2537,2541,2545,2548,2552,2554,2557,2560,2563,2567,2570,2573,2576,2579,2583,2586,2589,2592,2595,2599,2602,2605,2607,2610,2613,2616,2619,2622,2625,2628,2631,2634,2637,2640,2643,2646,2649,2652,2655,2658,2661,2664,2667,2670,2673,2676,2679,2682,2685,2688,2691,2694,2697,2700,2703,2706,2709,2712,2715,2718,2721,2724,2727,2731,2734,2737,2740,2743,2747,2750,2753,2756],{"title":2240,"slug":2529,"category":2530,"order":1227},"ability-circle","决策与战略",{"title":2532,"slug":2533,"category":2530,"order":1205},"逆向思维","inversion",{"title":2290,"slug":2535,"category":2536,"order":1248},"opportunity-cost","经济学",{"title":2538,"slug":2539,"category":2540,"order":1258},"复利","compound-interest","数学与概率论",{"title":2542,"slug":2543,"category":2544,"order":1268},"激励机制","incentives","心理学",{"title":2546,"slug":2547,"category":2540,"order":1278},"概率思维","probabilistic-thinking",{"title":2549,"slug":2550,"category":2551,"order":1288},"二阶效应","second-order-effects","哲学与逻辑",{"title":2281,"slug":2553,"category":2530,"order":1298},"margin-of-safety",{"title":2555,"slug":2556,"category":2544,"order":1308},"心理误判","psychology-of-misjudgment",{"title":2558,"slug":2559,"category":2530,"order":1318},"检查清单","checklist",{"title":2561,"slug":2562,"category":2536,"order":1328},"规模优势","scale-advantage",{"title":2564,"slug":2565,"category":2566,"order":1338},"冗余与容错","redundancy","工程学\u002F系统",{"title":2568,"slug":2569,"category":2540,"order":1348},"排列组合","combinatorics",{"title":2571,"slug":2572,"category":2540,"order":1358},"费马-帕斯卡","fermat-pascal",{"title":2574,"slug":2575,"category":2540,"order":1368},"均值回归","regression-to-the-mean",{"title":2577,"slug":2578,"category":2540,"order":1378},"量化分析","quantitative-analysis",{"title":2580,"slug":2581,"category":2582,"order":1388},"临界点\u002F相变","critical-point-phase-transition","物理学",{"title":2584,"slug":2585,"category":2582,"order":1398},"平衡态","equilibrium",{"title":2587,"slug":2588,"category":2582,"order":1408},"熵增定律","entropy",{"title":2590,"slug":2591,"category":2582,"order":1418},"能量守恒","conservation-of-energy",{"title":2593,"slug":2594,"category":2582,"order":1428},"杠杆原理","leverage",{"title":2596,"slug":2597,"category":2598,"order":1438},"自然选择","natural-selection","生物学\u002F进化论",{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":2598,"order":1448},"物竞天择","competition-for-resources",{"title":2603,"slug":2604,"category":2598,"order":1458},"进化思维","evolutionary-thinking",{"title":2321,"slug":2606,"category":2598,"order":1468},"ecosystem",{"title":2608,"slug":2609,"category":2544,"order":1478},"爱好倾向","liking-tendency",{"title":2611,"slug":2612,"category":2544,"order":1488},"讨厌倾向","disliking-tendency",{"title":2614,"slug":2615,"category":2544,"order":1498},"避免怀疑倾向","doubt-avoidance-tendency",{"title":2617,"slug":2618,"category":2544,"order":1508},"一致性倾向","consistency-tendency",{"title":2620,"slug":2621,"category":2544,"order":1518},"好奇心倾向","curiosity-tendency",{"title":2623,"slug":2624,"category":2544,"order":1528},"康德式公平","kantian-fairness",{"title":2626,"slug":2627,"category":2544,"order":1538},"艳羡\u002F妒忌倾向","envy-jealousy-tendency",{"title":2629,"slug":2630,"category":2544,"order":1548},"反馈倾向","reciprocation-tendency",{"title":2632,"slug":2633,"category":2544,"order":1558},"权威误导","authority-misinfluence",{"title":2635,"slug":2636,"category":2544,"order":1565},"重视理由","reason-respecting-tendency",{"title":2638,"slug":2639,"category":2544,"order":1572},"过度乐观","over-optimism",{"title":2641,"slug":2642,"category":2544,"order":1579},"损失厌恶","loss-aversion",{"title":2644,"slug":2645,"category":2544,"order":1586},"否认倾向","denial-tendency",{"title":2647,"slug":2648,"category":2544,"order":1593},"过度反应","overreaction-tendency",{"title":2650,"slug":2651,"category":2544,"order":1600},"社群影响","social-influence",{"title":2653,"slug":2654,"category":2544,"order":1607},"压力倾向","stress-influence-tendency",{"title":2656,"slug":2657,"category":2544,"order":1614},"物质主义","materialism-tendency",{"title":2659,"slug":2660,"category":2544,"order":1621},"废话倾向","twaddle-tendency",{"title":2662,"slug":2663,"category":2544,"order":1628},"确认偏误","confirmation-bias",{"title":2665,"slug":2666,"category":2544,"order":1635},"锚定效应","anchoring-effect",{"title":2668,"slug":2669,"category":2544,"order":1642},"现时偏差","present-bias",{"title":2671,"slug":2672,"category":2544,"order":1649},"贪婪倾向","greed-tendency",{"title":2674,"slug":2675,"category":2536,"order":1656},"边际成本\u002F收益","marginal-cost-benefit",{"title":2677,"slug":2678,"category":2536,"order":1663},"供需关系","supply-and-demand",{"title":2680,"slug":2681,"category":2536,"order":1670},"帕累托最优","pareto-optimality",{"title":2683,"slug":2684,"category":2536,"order":1677},"竞争性毁灭","creative-destruction",{"title":2686,"slug":2687,"category":2530,"order":1684},"双轨分析","two-track-analysis",{"title":2689,"slug":2690,"category":2530,"order":1691},"非线性思维","nonlinear-thinking",{"title":2692,"slug":2693,"category":2530,"order":1698},"极化思考","extreme-thinking",{"title":2695,"slug":2696,"category":2530,"order":1705},"必要功","necessary-work",{"title":2698,"slug":2699,"category":2566,"order":1712},"停机问题","halting-problem",{"title":2701,"slug":2702,"category":2566,"order":1719},"闭环系统","closed-loop-system",{"title":2704,"slug":2705,"category":2566,"order":1726},"故障安全","fail-safe",{"title":2707,"slug":2708,"category":2566,"order":1733},"反向设计","reverse-design",{"title":2710,"slug":2711,"category":2566,"order":1740},"瓶颈分析","bottleneck-analysis",{"title":2713,"slug":2714,"category":2551,"order":1747},"第一性原理","first-principles",{"title":2716,"slug":2717,"category":2551,"order":1754},"证伪思维","falsification",{"title":2719,"slug":2720,"category":2551,"order":1761},"奥卡姆剃刀","occams-razor",{"title":2722,"slug":2723,"category":2551,"order":1768},"中道思维","middle-way",{"title":2725,"slug":2726,"category":2551,"order":1775},"不可知论","agnosticism",{"title":2728,"slug":2729,"category":2730,"order":1782},"大数定律","law-of-large-numbers","统计学",{"title":2732,"slug":2733,"category":2730,"order":1789},"样本偏差","sample-bias",{"title":2735,"slug":2736,"category":2730,"order":1796},"相关性≠因果","correlation-not-causation",{"title":2738,"slug":2739,"category":2730,"order":1803},"幸存者偏差","survivorship-bias",{"title":2741,"slug":2742,"category":2730,"order":1810},"基本比率","base-rate",{"title":2744,"slug":2745,"category":2746,"order":1817},"社会认同","social-proof","社会学",{"title":2748,"slug":2749,"category":2746,"order":1824},"部落本能","tribal-instinct",{"title":2751,"slug":2752,"category":2746,"order":1215},"金蛋定律","golden-egg-rule",{"title":2754,"slug":2755,"category":2746,"order":1835},"互利共生","mutualism",{"title":2757,"slug":2758,"category":2746,"order":1842},"激励传导","incentive-transmission",1778147264869]