[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3209},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1673,"library-sidebar-dao":2675,"library-sidebar-models":2977},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1659,"date":1660,"description":1661,"extension":1662,"meta":1663,"navigation":1664,"order":1665,"path":1666,"seo":1667,"seoDescription":1661,"seoTitle":1668,"slug":1669,"stem":1670,"__hash__":1671,"_collection":1672},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2004 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1652},"minimark",[9,13,20,24,622,625,628,639,643,648,663,666,674,677,680,683,690,693,696,699,702,705,708,711,714,717,720,723,726,729,736,739,742,912,915,918,921,924,931,934,937,940,947,950,955,960,1380,1383,1386,1389,1400,1403,1410,1413,1420,1423,1426,1429,1432,1435,1438,1441,1444,1527,1530,1533,1536,1547,1550,1557,1560,1565,1568,1571,1579,1582,1585,1588,1591,1594,1613,1616,1619,1622,1625,1628],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2004-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"注：以下业绩对比表刊载于年度报告中董事长致辞的对页，并在信中有所引用。",[21,22,23],"h2",{"id":23},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[25,26,27,46],"table",{},[28,29,30],"thead",{},[31,32,33,37,40,43],"tr",{},[34,35,36],"th",{},"年份",[34,38,39],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[34,41,42],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[34,44,45],{},"相对收益 (1)-(2)",[47,48,49,64,78,92,105,119,133,147,161,175,189,203,217,230,244,257,271,285,299,312,326,340,352,365,378,392,406,420,432,446,460,473,487,501,515,529,543,557,570,583,596,609],"tbody",{},[31,50,51,55,58,61],{},[52,53,54],"td",{},"1965",[52,56,57],{},"23.8",[52,59,60],{},"10.0",[52,62,63],{},"13.8",[31,65,66,69,72,75],{},[52,67,68],{},"1966",[52,70,71],{},"20.3",[52,73,74],{},"(11.7)",[52,76,77],{},"32.0",[31,79,80,83,86,89],{},[52,81,82],{},"1967",[52,84,85],{},"11.0",[52,87,88],{},"30.9",[52,90,91],{},"(19.9)",[31,93,94,97,100,102],{},[52,95,96],{},"1968",[52,98,99],{},"19.0",[52,101,85],{},[52,103,104],{},"8.0",[31,106,107,110,113,116],{},[52,108,109],{},"1969",[52,111,112],{},"16.2",[52,114,115],{},"(8.4)",[52,117,118],{},"24.6",[31,120,121,124,127,130],{},[52,122,123],{},"1970",[52,125,126],{},"12.0",[52,128,129],{},"3.9",[52,131,132],{},"8.1",[31,134,135,138,141,144],{},[52,136,137],{},"1971",[52,139,140],{},"16.4",[52,142,143],{},"14.6",[52,145,146],{},"1.8",[31,148,149,152,155,158],{},[52,150,151],{},"1972",[52,153,154],{},"21.7",[52,156,157],{},"18.9",[52,159,160],{},"2.8",[31,162,163,166,169,172],{},[52,164,165],{},"1973",[52,167,168],{},"4.7",[52,170,171],{},"(14.8)",[52,173,174],{},"19.5",[31,176,177,180,183,186],{},[52,178,179],{},"1974",[52,181,182],{},"5.5",[52,184,185],{},"(26.4)",[52,187,188],{},"31.9",[31,190,191,194,197,200],{},[52,192,193],{},"1975",[52,195,196],{},"21.9",[52,198,199],{},"37.2",[52,201,202],{},"(15.3)",[31,204,205,208,211,214],{},[52,206,207],{},"1976",[52,209,210],{},"59.3",[52,212,213],{},"23.6",[52,215,216],{},"35.7",[31,218,219,222,224,227],{},[52,220,221],{},"1977",[52,223,188],{},[52,225,226],{},"(7.4)",[52,228,229],{},"39.3",[31,231,232,235,238,241],{},[52,233,234],{},"1978",[52,236,237],{},"24.0",[52,239,240],{},"6.4",[52,242,243],{},"17.6",[31,245,246,249,251,254],{},[52,247,248],{},"1979",[52,250,216],{},[52,252,253],{},"18.2",[52,255,256],{},"17.5",[31,258,259,262,265,268],{},[52,260,261],{},"1980",[52,263,264],{},"19.3",[52,266,267],{},"32.3",[52,269,270],{},"(13.0)",[31,272,273,276,279,282],{},[52,274,275],{},"1981",[52,277,278],{},"31.4",[52,280,281],{},"(5.0)",[52,283,284],{},"36.4",[31,286,287,290,293,296],{},[52,288,289],{},"1982",[52,291,292],{},"40.0",[52,294,295],{},"21.4",[52,297,298],{},"18.6",[31,300,301,304,306,309],{},[52,302,303],{},"1983",[52,305,267],{},[52,307,308],{},"22.4",[52,310,311],{},"9.9",[31,313,314,317,320,323],{},[52,315,316],{},"1984",[52,318,319],{},"13.6",[52,321,322],{},"6.1",[52,324,325],{},"7.5",[31,327,328,331,334,337],{},[52,329,330],{},"1985",[52,332,333],{},"48.2",[52,335,336],{},"31.6",[52,338,339],{},"16.6",[31,341,342,345,348,350],{},[52,343,344],{},"1986",[52,346,347],{},"26.1",[52,349,298],{},[52,351,325],{},[31,353,354,357,359,362],{},[52,355,356],{},"1987",[52,358,174],{},[52,360,361],{},"5.1",[52,363,364],{},"14.4",[31,366,367,370,373,375],{},[52,368,369],{},"1988",[52,371,372],{},"20.1",[52,374,339],{},[52,376,377],{},"3.5",[31,379,380,383,386,389],{},[52,381,382],{},"1989",[52,384,385],{},"44.4",[52,387,388],{},"31.7",[52,390,391],{},"12.7",[31,393,394,397,400,403],{},[52,395,396],{},"1990",[52,398,399],{},"7.4",[52,401,402],{},"(3.1)",[52,404,405],{},"10.5",[31,407,408,411,414,417],{},[52,409,410],{},"1991",[52,412,413],{},"39.6",[52,415,416],{},"30.5",[52,418,419],{},"9.1",[31,421,422,425,427,430],{},[52,423,424],{},"1992",[52,426,71],{},[52,428,429],{},"7.6",[52,431,391],{},[31,433,434,437,440,443],{},[52,435,436],{},"1993",[52,438,439],{},"14.3",[52,441,442],{},"10.1",[52,444,445],{},"4.2",[31,447,448,451,454,457],{},[52,449,450],{},"1994",[52,452,453],{},"13.9",[52,455,456],{},"1.3",[52,458,459],{},"12.6",[31,461,462,465,468,471],{},[52,463,464],{},"1995",[52,466,467],{},"43.1",[52,469,470],{},"37.6",[52,472,182],{},[31,474,475,478,481,484],{},[52,476,477],{},"1996",[52,479,480],{},"31.8",[52,482,483],{},"23.0",[52,485,486],{},"8.8",[31,488,489,492,495,498],{},[52,490,491],{},"1997",[52,493,494],{},"34.1",[52,496,497],{},"33.4",[52,499,500],{},".7",[31,502,503,506,509,512],{},[52,504,505],{},"1998",[52,507,508],{},"48.3",[52,510,511],{},"28.6",[52,513,514],{},"19.7",[31,516,517,520,523,526],{},[52,518,519],{},"1999",[52,521,522],{},".5",[52,524,525],{},"21.0",[52,527,528],{},"(20.5)",[31,530,531,534,537,540],{},[52,532,533],{},"2000",[52,535,536],{},"6.5",[52,538,539],{},"(9.1)",[52,541,542],{},"15.6",[31,544,545,548,551,554],{},[52,546,547],{},"2001",[52,549,550],{},"(6.2)",[52,552,553],{},"(11.9)",[52,555,556],{},"5.7",[31,558,559,562,564,567],{},[52,560,561],{},"2002",[52,563,60],{},[52,565,566],{},"(22.1)",[52,568,569],{},"32.1",[31,571,572,575,577,580],{},[52,573,574],{},"2003",[52,576,525],{},[52,578,579],{},"28.7",[52,581,582],{},"(7.7)",[31,584,585,588,590,593],{},[52,586,587],{},"2004",[52,589,405],{},[52,591,592],{},"10.9",[52,594,595],{},"(.4)",[31,597,598,601,603,606],{},[52,599,600],{},"1965-2004年年复合增长率",[52,602,196],{},[52,604,605],{},"10.4",[52,607,608],{},"11.5",[31,610,611,614,617,620],{},[52,612,613],{},"1964-2004年累计总收益",[52,615,616],{},"286,865",[52,618,619],{},"5,318",[52,621],{},[14,623,624],{},"注：数据按日历年度统计，以下年份除外：1965年和1966年截至9月30日；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。",[14,626,627],{},"自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司以市价而非此前的成本与市价孰低法计量其持有的权益证券。本表中1978年及以前的伯克希尔数据已按新规则进行了重述。其余数据均沿用最初报告的数字。",[14,629,630,631,634,635,638],{},"标普500指数的数据为",[17,632,633],{},"税前","收益，而伯克希尔的数据为",[17,636,637],{},"税后","收益。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普500指数并计提相应税款，那么在标普500指数正收益的年份，其表现将落后于指数；而在标普500指数负收益的年份，其表现将超越指数。长期累积来看，税负成本将导致相当大的滞后差距。",[10,640,642],{"id":641},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,644,645],{},[17,646,647],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,649,650,651],{},"2004年，公司净资产增加了83亿美元，A\u002FB股每股账面价值增长10.5%。自现任管理层接手的40年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元成长到目前的55,824美元，年复合增长率约为21.9%。",[652,653,654],"sup",{},[655,656,662],"a",{"href":657,"ariaDescribedBy":658,"dataFootnoteRef":660,"id":661},"#user-content-fn-*",[659],"footnote-label","","user-content-fnref-*","1",[14,664,665],{},"然而，真正重要的是每股内在价值，而非账面价值。好消息是，从1964年到2004年，伯克希尔已经从一家摇摇欲坠的北方纺织企业——当时内在价值还不及账面价值——蜕变成一个多元化的大型集团，内在价值远远超过账面价值。因此，40年来我们内在价值的增长幅度其实超过了账面价值21.9%的增长率。（想了解更多关于内在价值以及查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger)——我的合伙人兼伯克希尔副董事长——和我经营伯克希尔的原则，请参阅股东手册，从第73页开始。）",[14,667,668,669,673],{},"尽管有其局限性，年度账面价值的计算对伯克希尔而言仍是衡量内在价值",[670,671,672],"em",{},"长期","增长率一个略偏保守的有效工具。不过，将单一年度的账面价值表现与标普500指数进行对比（见首页对照表），其参考意义已不如从前。我们的股票投资（包括可转换优先股在内）占净资产的比重已大幅下降，比如1980年代平均占114%，而近年已不足50%。因此，股市的年度波动对我们净资产的影响远不如以前那么大。这意味着在股市大幅上涨的年份，我们的表现通常会不如指数；而在股市下跌的年份，我们的表现通常会超越指数。",[14,675,676],{},"无论单一年度的对比结果如何，伯克希尔对标普500的长期表现始终至关重要。我们的股东可以用极低的成本通过指数基金投资标普500。除非未来我们能够以超越标普500的速度积累每股内在价值，否则查理跟我就没有存在的价值。",[14,678,679],{},"去年伯克希尔的账面价值仅增长了10.5%，略低于标普500指数10.9%的回报率。我们平庸的表现与旗下各业务的CEO毫无关系——一如既往，他们承担了超出自身份额的重任。我给他们的指示很简单：请用经营自家百年老店的心态来经营这些业务。他们几乎每个人都照办了，在打理好自家业务的需求之后，把多余的资金送回奥马哈交由我来调配。",[14,681,682],{},"去年是我没做好自己的分内事。我本来希望能谈成几笔数十亿美元的收购，为我们已经相当丰富的收益来源再增添新的重要来源。但我颗粒无收。此外，我也很难找到什么有吸引力的证券可买。就这样，到年底伯克希尔账上积压了430亿美元的现金等价物，这可不是什么让人高兴的局面。查理跟我会在2005年努力把这些闲钱转化成更有意思的资产，不过我们实在不敢打包票。",[14,684,685,686,689],{},"从另一个角度来看，2004年的股市表现倒颇为不同寻常，只是这个事实淹没在第2页的数字迷宫里了。如果你审视自1960年代结束以来的35年，会发现投资者持有标普500（含股息）的年均回报率高达11.2%（远高于我们对未来回报率的预期）。但如果你要找回报率接近这个11.2%的年份——比如在8%到14%之间——你会发现2004年以前只有",[670,687,688],{},"一个","年份符合条件。换句话说，去年看起来\"正常\"的回报恰恰是反常的。",[14,691,692],{},"过去35年来，美国企业创造了极为出色的业绩。投资者理应轻轻松松地赚到丰厚回报——他们只需要以分散且低成本的方式搭上美国企业的顺风车就行了。买一只指数基金然后什么都不碰，就能达到目的。但实际上，大多数投资者的经历从平庸到惨不忍睹不等。",[14,694,695],{},"这其中有三个主要原因。第一，成本太高，要么是交易过于频繁，要么是在投资管理上花了太多钱。第二，投资决策建立在小道消息和赶时髦的基础上，而非对企业进行深思熟虑的定量分析。第三，在错误的时点进出市场——牛市涨了好久之后才冲进去买，在长期低迷或下跌之后才卖出。投资者应当牢记，兴奋和费用是他们的大敌。如果他们执意要择时进出股市，那就应该努力做到：别人贪婪时恐惧，别人恐惧时贪婪。",[10,697,698],{"id":698},"各部门业绩",[14,700,701],{},"身为管理者，查理跟我设身处地为各位着想，希望提供给大家换位思考后我们自己也想得到的财务信息和评论。随着伯克希尔的业务版图日益庞杂，要兼顾清晰与适度简洁越来越难。我们旗下有些业务的经济特征截然不同，这意味着把所有数字混在一起的合并报表，几乎不可能做出有意义的分析。",[14,703,704],{},"因此，在接下来的篇幅中，我们将分别列示四大业务板块的资产负债表和收益数字，并逐一加以评述。我们尤其希望大家了解我们在什么有限的情况下才会使用负债，因为我们通常是避之不及的。但我们也不会拿一堆对估算伯克希尔内在价值毫无用处的数据来淹没各位。那样做只会模糊真正重要的信息。",[21,706,707],{"id":707},"受管制的公用事业",[14,709,710],{},"我们持有中美能源控股公司 (MidAmerican Energy Holdings) 80.5%的权益（完全稀释），该公司拥有多种公用事业业务。其中最主要的包括：（1）约克郡电力与北方电力公司 (Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric)，拥有370万电力用户，是英国第三大电力分销商；（2）中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy)，主要在爱荷华州服务69.8万电力用户；（3）科恩河管道与北方天然管道 (Kern River and Northern Natural)，运输全美7.9%的天然气消费量。",[14,712,713],{},"剩余19.5%的权益由我们的三位合伙人持有：戴夫·索科尔 (Dave Sokol) 和格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel)，两位都是这些业务出色的管理者；还有沃尔特·斯科特 (Walter Scott)，我多年的老友，当初就是他把这家公司介绍给我的。由于中美能源受限于《公用事业控股公司法》（PUHCA），伯克希尔的投票权最高只能达到9.9%，控制权由沃尔特持有。",[14,715,716],{},"受限的投票权迫使我们只能以简略的方式入账中美能源的财务数据。我们无法将该公司的资产、负债、收入和费用全部并入伯克希尔的报表，而只能在资产负债表和损益表中各列一行。不过，PUHCA总有一天——也许很快——会被废除，或者会计准则会有所变更。届时伯克希尔的合并报表将纳入中美能源的全部财务数据，包括其大量的负债（当然，这些负债无论现在还是将来，都不是伯克希尔的义务）。",[14,718,719],{},"截至年底，中美能源欠伯克希尔的次级债务为14.78亿美元。这笔借款使得中美能源在进行收购时，我们的合伙人不必追加他们已经相当可观的投资。通过收取11%的利息，伯克希尔获得了合理的回报，而我们的合伙人也避免了股权被稀释。由于中美能源去年没有进行重大收购，所以偿还了欠我们的1亿美元。",[14,721,722],{},"中美能源还拥有一项重要的非公用事业——美国家庭服务公司 (HomeServices of America)，全美第二大房地产经纪商。与公用事业不同，这个行业的周期波动相当大，但我们仍然对此充满热情。我们拥有一位出色的经理人罗恩·佩尔蒂尔 (Ron Peltier)，凭借其收购和经营才能，正在打造一个房地产经纪王国。",[14,724,725],{},"2004年，HomeServices参与了598亿美元的交易，较2003年增长了112亿美元。其中约24%的增长来自年内完成的六笔收购。通过旗下17家经纪公司——全部保留各自的当地品牌——我们在18个州雇用了超过1.8万名经纪人。随着我们继续收购各地的领先经纪公司，HomeServices在未来十年几乎肯定还会大幅增长。",[14,727,728],{},"去年中美能源核销了一项锌回收项目的重大投资。该项目于1998年启动，2002年投入运营。我们在加州地热业务中产生的卤水含有大量的锌，我们相信可以从中获利地提取这种金属。一连好几个月，商业化回收看起来似乎近在眼前。但冶矿这一行，跟石油勘探一样，总是让开发者看到希望又一次次落空。每解决一个问题，另一个又冒了出来。到了9月份，我们终于举白旗投降。",[14,730,731,732,735],{},"我们的这次失败再度印证了一项原则的重要性——",[670,733,734],{},"坚持简单的事情","——我们通常在投资和经营中都遵循这一原则。如果一项决策只取决于一个关键变量，而该变量有90%的成功概率，那么成功的几率显然就是90%。但如果需要十个独立变量同时朝有利方向发展才能成功，每个变量各有90%的概率，那么最终胜出的可能性就只有35%。在锌回收项目上，我们解决了大部分问题。但有一个始终无法攻克，而一个就已经太多了。一根链条不会比其最薄弱的一环更牢固，所以最明智的做法是寻找——请原谅这个矛盾修辞——单环链条。",[14,737,738],{},"下表是中美能源的经营业绩明细。2004年\"其他\"项下包含一笔7,220万美元的出售安然 (Enron) 应收账款的利润，这笔应收款是两年前我们收购北方天然管道时附带过来的。沃尔特、戴夫和我作为土生土长的奥马哈人，把这笔意外之财视为战争赔款——部分补偿1986年肯·莱 (Ken Lay) 在承诺保留北方天然在本地之后却将其搬到休斯顿，给我们城市造成的损失。（详情请参阅伯克希尔2002年的年报。）",[14,740,741],{},"以下是中美能源的几项重要数据：",[25,743,744,756],{},[28,745,746],{},[31,747,748,750,753],{},[34,749],{},[34,751,752],{},"2004年收益（百万美元）",[34,754,755],{},"2003年收益（百万美元）",[47,757,758,769,780,791,802,813,824,835,846,857,868,879,890,901],{},[31,759,760,763,766],{},[52,761,762],{},"英国电力",[52,764,765],{},"$ 326",[52,767,768],{},"$ 289",[31,770,771,774,777],{},[52,772,773],{},"爱荷华电力",[52,775,776],{},"268",[52,778,779],{},"269",[31,781,782,785,788],{},[52,783,784],{},"管道运输业务",[52,786,787],{},"288",[52,789,790],{},"261",[31,792,793,796,799],{},[52,794,795],{},"家庭服务",[52,797,798],{},"130",[52,800,801],{},"113",[31,803,804,807,810],{},[52,805,806],{},"其他（净额）",[52,808,809],{},"172",[52,811,812],{},"190",[31,814,815,818,821],{},[52,816,817],{},"锌项目亏损",[52,819,820],{},"(579)",[52,822,823],{},"(46)",[31,825,826,829,832],{},[52,827,828],{},"息税前收益",[52,830,831],{},"605",[52,833,834],{},"1,076",[31,836,837,840,843],{},[52,838,839],{},"利息支出——其他企业债务",[52,841,842],{},"(212)",[52,844,845],{},"(225)",[31,847,848,851,854],{},[52,849,850],{},"利息支出——伯克希尔次级债务",[52,852,853],{},"(170)",[52,855,856],{},"(184)",[31,858,859,862,865],{},[52,860,861],{},"所得税",[52,863,864],{},"(53)",[52,866,867],{},"(251)",[31,869,870,873,876],{},[52,871,872],{},"净收益",[52,874,875],{},"$ 170",[52,877,878],{},"$ 416",[31,880,881,884,887],{},[52,882,883],{},"归属于伯克希尔的净收益*",[52,885,886],{},"$ 237",[52,888,889],{},"$ 429",[31,891,892,895,898],{},[52,893,894],{},"应付其他企业债务",[52,896,897],{},"10,528",[52,899,900],{},"10,296",[31,902,903,906,909],{},[52,904,905],{},"应付伯克希尔债务",[52,907,908],{},"1,478",[52,910,911],{},"1,578",[14,913,914],{},"* 包含伯克希尔赚取的利息收入（已扣除相关所得税），2004年为1.1亿美元，2003年为1.18亿美元。",[21,916,917],{"id":917},"保险业务",[14,919,920],{},"自从伯克希尔在1967年买下国民保险公司 (National Indemnity, \"NICO\") 之后，财产意外险就成了我们的核心业务，也是驱动增长的引擎。保险业为我们提供了源源不断的资金泉源，使我们得以收购那些如今贡献出越来越多样化收益来源的证券和企业。所以在这一部分，我会花点时间告诉大家我们是怎么走到今天这一步的。",[14,922,923],{},"我们保险资金的来源是\"浮存金\"，这笔钱不属于我们，但暂时由我们代管。我们的浮存金之所以产生，主要有两个原因：（1）保费是预先收取的，而我们提供的服务——保险保障——通常要在之后一年时间内交付；（2）今天发生的损失事件并不总是让我们立即支付理赔金，因为有时损失要在发生后许多年才会被报告（石棉损失就是一个例子），然后还要经历协商和解。我们1967年收购时附带的2,000万美元浮存金，如今已经通过内部增长和外部收购增加到了461亿美元。",[14,925,926,927,930],{},"浮存金是好东西——",[670,928,929],{},"前提是","取得成本不能太高。浮存金的成本取决于承保业绩，也就是我们最终支付的理赔和费用与收取的保费之比。当实现承保盈利时——伯克希尔在从事保险业务的38年中约有一半的年头做到了——浮存金就比免费还好。在这些年份里，别人实际上是付钱请我们帮他们保管资金。然而对大多数保险公司来说，日子就没这么好过了：总体而言，财产意外险行业几乎总是处于承保亏损状态。当亏损很大时，浮存金的成本就变得非常高昂，有时甚至高得令人窒息。",[14,932,933],{},"保险公司之所以普遍回报不佳，原因很简单：他们卖的是同质化的商品。保单格式都是标准化的，产品由许多供应商提供，其中一些是互助制公司（由保户而非股东所有），利润目标有限。而且大多数投保人根本不在乎从谁那里买保险。数以百万计的顾客会说\"我要吉列 (Gillette) 刮胡刀\"或\"给我来杯可乐\"，但你绝对等不到有人说\"请给我一份国民保险的保单\"。因此，保险业的价格竞争通常极为激烈。想想航空公司的机票就明白了。",[14,935,936],{},"那么你也许会问，伯克希尔的保险业务是如何摆脱这个行业的惨淡经济状况，并取得持久竞争优势的呢？我们从多个方面攻克这个难题。首先来看国民保险的策略。",[14,938,939],{},"当我们买下这家公司时——它专做商用车险和一般责任险——看不出有什么特质能克服行业的痼疾。它知名度不高，没有信息优势（公司甚至从来没有过一个精算师），不是低成本运营商，而且通过普通代理商销售，这在当时被很多人视为过时的做法。然而，在过去38年的绝大多数时间里，国民保险都是一颗耀眼的明星。实际上，如果当年我们没有完成这笔收购，伯克希尔今天的价值很可能连现在的一半都不到。",[14,941,942,943,946],{},"我们的法宝是一种大多数保险公司无法复制的管理思维。请看下表。你能想象",[670,944,945],{},"任何","一家上市公司会接受一种导致营收从1986年到1999年持续下滑的商业模式吗？我必须强调，那种大幅下滑并不是因为没有生意可做。只要我们愿意降低价格，数十亿美元的保费唾手可得。但我们始终坚持有利可图的定价，而不是去追随最乐观的竞争对手。我们从未抛弃客户——是客户自己离开了我们。",[14,948,949],{},"大多数美国企业都有一种\"制度性惯性\"，不能忍受营收的持续下降。哪个CEO愿意告诉股东，不仅去年业务萎缩了，而且还将继续下滑？在保险行业，继续签发保单的冲动更加强烈，因为愚蠢定价保单的后果要过上好一阵子才会显现。如果保险公司在提列准备金时过于乐观，账面收益就会被夸大，可能要等上好几年真实的损失成本才会浮出水面（正是这种自欺欺人的把戏让盖可保险 (GEICO) 在1970年代差点倒闭）。",[14,951,952],{},[17,953,954],{},"严谨的承保人画像",[14,956,957],{},[17,958,959],{},"国民保险公司",[25,961,962,980],{},[28,963,964],{},[31,965,966,968,971,974,977],{},[34,967,36],{},[34,969,970],{},"保费收入（百万美元）",[34,972,973],{},"年末雇员数",[34,975,976],{},"承保费用率",[34,978,979],{},"承保利润率（截至2004年底）*",[47,981,982,998,1014,1030,1046,1062,1078,1094,1110,1126,1142,1158,1174,1190,1205,1221,1237,1253,1269,1284,1300,1316,1332,1348,1364],{},[31,983,984,986,989,992,995],{},[52,985,261],{},[52,987,988],{},"$ 79.6",[52,990,991],{},"372",[52,993,994],{},"32.3%",[52,996,997],{},"8.2%",[31,999,1000,1002,1005,1008,1011],{},[52,1001,275],{},[52,1003,1004],{},"59.9",[52,1006,1007],{},"353",[52,1009,1010],{},"36.1%",[52,1012,1013],{},"(.8%)",[31,1015,1016,1018,1021,1024,1027],{},[52,1017,289],{},[52,1019,1020],{},"52.5",[52,1022,1023],{},"323",[52,1025,1026],{},"36.7%",[52,1028,1029],{},"(15.3%)",[31,1031,1032,1034,1037,1040,1043],{},[52,1033,303],{},[52,1035,1036],{},"58.2",[52,1038,1039],{},"308",[52,1041,1042],{},"35.6%",[52,1044,1045],{},"(18.7%)",[31,1047,1048,1050,1053,1056,1059],{},[52,1049,316],{},[52,1051,1052],{},"62.2",[52,1054,1055],{},"342",[52,1057,1058],{},"35.5%",[52,1060,1061],{},"(17.0%)",[31,1063,1064,1066,1069,1072,1075],{},[52,1065,330],{},[52,1067,1068],{},"160.7",[52,1070,1071],{},"380",[52,1073,1074],{},"28.0%",[52,1076,1077],{},"1.9%",[31,1079,1080,1082,1085,1088,1091],{},[52,1081,344],{},[52,1083,1084],{},"366.2",[52,1086,1087],{},"403",[52,1089,1090],{},"25.9%",[52,1092,1093],{},"30.7%",[31,1095,1096,1098,1101,1104,1107],{},[52,1097,356],{},[52,1099,1100],{},"232.3",[52,1102,1103],{},"368",[52,1105,1106],{},"29.5%",[52,1108,1109],{},"27.3%",[31,1111,1112,1114,1117,1120,1123],{},[52,1113,369],{},[52,1115,1116],{},"139.9",[52,1118,1119],{},"347",[52,1121,1122],{},"31.7%",[52,1124,1125],{},"24.8%",[31,1127,1128,1130,1133,1136,1139],{},[52,1129,382],{},[52,1131,1132],{},"98.4",[52,1134,1135],{},"320",[52,1137,1138],{},"35.9%",[52,1140,1141],{},"14.8%",[31,1143,1144,1146,1149,1152,1155],{},[52,1145,396],{},[52,1147,1148],{},"87.8",[52,1150,1151],{},"289",[52,1153,1154],{},"37.4%",[52,1156,1157],{},"7.0%",[31,1159,1160,1162,1165,1168,1171],{},[52,1161,410],{},[52,1163,1164],{},"88.3",[52,1166,1167],{},"284",[52,1169,1170],{},"35.7%",[52,1172,1173],{},"13.0%",[31,1175,1176,1178,1181,1184,1187],{},[52,1177,424],{},[52,1179,1180],{},"82.7",[52,1182,1183],{},"277",[52,1185,1186],{},"37.9%",[52,1188,1189],{},"5.2%",[31,1191,1192,1194,1197,1200,1202],{},[52,1193,436],{},[52,1195,1196],{},"86.8",[52,1198,1199],{},"279",[52,1201,1010],{},[52,1203,1204],{},"11.3%",[31,1206,1207,1209,1212,1215,1218],{},[52,1208,450],{},[52,1210,1211],{},"85.9",[52,1213,1214],{},"263",[52,1216,1217],{},"34.6%",[52,1219,1220],{},"4.6%",[31,1222,1223,1225,1228,1231,1234],{},[52,1224,464],{},[52,1226,1227],{},"78.0",[52,1229,1230],{},"258",[52,1232,1233],{},"36.6%",[52,1235,1236],{},"9.2%",[31,1238,1239,1241,1244,1247,1250],{},[52,1240,477],{},[52,1242,1243],{},"74.0",[52,1245,1246],{},"243",[52,1248,1249],{},"36.5%",[52,1251,1252],{},"6.8%",[31,1254,1255,1257,1260,1263,1266],{},[52,1256,491],{},[52,1258,1259],{},"65.3",[52,1261,1262],{},"240",[52,1264,1265],{},"40.4%",[52,1267,1268],{},"6.2%",[31,1270,1271,1273,1276,1279,1281],{},[52,1272,505],{},[52,1274,1275],{},"56.8",[52,1277,1278],{},"231",[52,1280,1265],{},[52,1282,1283],{},"9.4%",[31,1285,1286,1288,1291,1294,1297],{},[52,1287,519],{},[52,1289,1290],{},"54.5",[52,1292,1293],{},"222",[52,1295,1296],{},"41.2%",[52,1298,1299],{},"4.5%",[31,1301,1302,1304,1307,1310,1313],{},[52,1303,533],{},[52,1305,1306],{},"68.1",[52,1308,1309],{},"230",[52,1311,1312],{},"38.4%",[52,1314,1315],{},"2.9%",[31,1317,1318,1320,1323,1326,1329],{},[52,1319,547],{},[52,1321,1322],{},"161.3",[52,1324,1325],{},"254",[52,1327,1328],{},"28.8%",[52,1330,1331],{},"(11.6%)",[31,1333,1334,1336,1339,1342,1345],{},[52,1335,561],{},[52,1337,1338],{},"343.5",[52,1340,1341],{},"313",[52,1343,1344],{},"24.0%",[52,1346,1347],{},"16.8%",[31,1349,1350,1352,1355,1358,1361],{},[52,1351,574],{},[52,1353,1354],{},"594.5",[52,1356,1357],{},"337",[52,1359,1360],{},"22.2%",[52,1362,1363],{},"18.1%",[31,1365,1366,1368,1371,1374,1377],{},[52,1367,587],{},[52,1369,1370],{},"605.6",[52,1372,1373],{},"340",[52,1375,1376],{},"22.5%",[52,1378,1379],{},"5.1%",[14,1381,1382],{},"* 要了解特定年度的真实盈利情况，通常需要很长一段时间。首先，很多理赔申请在年底之后才会提交，我们必须估计这些申请的数量和金额。（用保险术语说，这些叫做IBNR——已发生但尚未报告的索赔。）其次，索赔往往需要数年甚至数十年才能和解，这意味着其间会出现很多变数。",[14,1384,1385],{},"因此，本栏的数字仅代表我们在2004年底对往年业绩的最佳估计。截至1999年的各年度利润率应该比较接近实际，因为这些年度已经\"成熟\"，即尚未结案的索赔已所剩无几。年份越近，猜测的成分就越大。尤其是2003年和2004年的数字，日后很可能会有重大变化。",[14,1387,1388],{},"最后，还有一个恐惧因素在起作用——业务萎缩通常意味着裁员。为了保住饭碗，员工会为不当的定价找理由，告诉自己低价接单是为了维持组织的完整和分销渠道的满意度。如果不这样做，员工们会争辩说，一旦景气回暖——他们总觉得转角就是春天——公司将无法参与复苏。",[14,1390,1391,1392,1395,1396,1399],{},"为了抵消员工这种自保的天性，我们始终向国民保险的员工承诺，",[670,1393,1394],{},"没有人","会因为业务下滑而被解雇，不管萎缩多么严重。（这里可不是唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 那种地方。）国民保险不是劳力密集型企业，如上表所示，它能承受额外的管理费用。但它承受不了不当的定价以及随之而来的承保纪律崩坏。一家今年不把承保盈利放在心上的保险公司，",[670,1397,1398],{},"明年","也不会在乎。",[14,1401,1402],{},"当然，实行不裁员政策的企业，在景气好的时候就必须格外注意避免人员冗余。30年前，时任大都会 (Cap Cities) CEO的汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy) 用一个假想的小故事向我阐明了这一点。话说有位员工向老板申请增聘一名助手。这位员工觉得每年多花2万美元的薪水不算什么。但他的老板告诉他，考虑到加薪、福利和其他开支（人多了，厕纸也得多买），一个员工终其一生的成本至少要300万美元，应该把这当成一个300万美元的决策来看待。而且除非公司真的快撑不下去了，这个新增的人手恐怕很难被辞退，不管他对公司的贡献有多微薄。",[14,1404,1405,1406,1409],{},"要让国民保险这样运营，需要深植于企业文化中的真正魄力。翻看上面这张表，你可以一眨眼扫过1986年到1999年那些年份。但日复一日地眼看着业务缩水——而竞争对手们在大吹大擂自己的增长、赢得华尔街的掌声——这种煎熬很少有经理人能扛得住。然而，国民保险自1940年成立以来的四任CEO却",[670,1407,1408],{},"无一","屈服。（值得一提的是，这四位CEO中只有一位念过大学。经验告诉我们，非凡的商业才能大多是天生的。）",[14,1411,1412],{},"国民保险现任的管理明星——不，应该说是超级巨星——是唐·沃斯特 (Don Wurster)（没错，上大学的就是他），自1989年起执掌公司。他的长打率堪比巴里·邦兹 (Barry Bonds)（棒球巨星），因为跟巴里一样，唐宁可选择保送也不会对着烂球挥棒。目前唐已经为国民保险积累了9.5亿美元的浮存金，而且几乎可以肯定，长期来看这是负成本的浮存金。由于保费价格正在下降，唐的业务量很快将大幅下滑，而随着它的下滑，查理跟我只会越来越大声地为他喝彩。",[14,1414,1415,1416,1419],{},"再保险——卖给其他保险公司、帮助它们分散风险的保险——",[670,1417,1418],{},"不应该","是同质化的商品产品。说到底，任何保险保单不过就是一个承诺，而大家都知道，承诺的质量千差万别。",[14,1421,1422],{},"在直保层面，做出承诺的是谁往往不太紧要。以个人险种为例，各州会向经营正常的保险公司征收分摊金，用来赔付那些破产公司的保户。在商业险领域，工伤赔偿保险也有类似的安排。这类受保护的保单约占财产意外险行业保费的60%。经营稳健的保险公司对于被迫补贴那些管理不善或鲁莽经营的同行深感不满，但这个行业的规矩就是如此。",[14,1424,1425],{},"其他形式的直保商业险涉及的承诺对投保人有更大的风险。比如当信实保险 (Reliance Insurance) 和家庭保险 (Home Insurance) 被搞垮的时候，它们的承诺被证明一文不值。因此，许多持有其商业保单（工伤赔偿险除外）的客户蒙受了惨痛的损失。",[14,1427,1428],{},"但直保保单中的偿付风险，与再保险保单中潜藏的风险比起来根本不值一提。当一家再保险公司破产时，与其合作的直保公司几乎总会遭受巨额损失。这个风险绝不容小觑：GEICO在1980年代初期就曾因为选择再保险公司不当而蒙受了数千万美元的损失。",[14,1430,1431],{},"如果未来一二十年内发生一场真正的超级大灾难——这完全有可能——一些再保险公司将无法幸免。迄今为止最大的保险损失是世贸中心灾难，估计给保险业造成了350亿美元的损失。1992年的安德鲁飓风给保险业造成了约155亿美元的损失（以今天的币值计算会高出许多）。这两场灾难都震撼了整个保险和再保险世界。但如果一场特别猛烈的大地震或飓风恰好袭击了最糟糕的地方，1,000亿美元甚至更大的灾害损失并非没有可能。2004年有四场大飓风袭击了佛罗里达，合计造成了约250亿美元的保险损失。其中两场——查理 (Charley) 和伊万 (Ivan)——如果登陆地点稍有偏差，造成的损失至少会是实际的三倍。",[14,1433,1434],{},"许多保险公司认为1,000亿美元的行业损失\"不可想象\"，根本不会为此做任何准备。但在伯克希尔，我们早已未雨绸缪。我们承担的损失份额大概在3%到5%之间，而我们每年从投资和其他业务获得的收益将轻松覆盖这些损失。\"劫后余生\"那一天真的来临时，伯克希尔开出的支票照样能兑现。",[14,1436,1437],{},"虽然飓风给我们带来了12.5亿美元的损失，但我们的再保险业务去年总体表现不俗。在通用再保险 (General Re)，乔·布兰登 (Joe Brandon) 恢复了这家公司长期以来引以为豪的承保纪律文化——此前一度偏离了轨道。然而，他在2004年当年业务上取得的优异业绩，被他接手之前遗留下来的不利发展所抵消。在国民保险的再保险业务方面，阿吉特·贾恩 (Ajit Jain) 继续成功地承保其他再保险公司不愿或无力承接的巨额风险。阿吉特对伯克希尔的价值不可估量。",[14,1439,1440],{},"我们一再强调，我们每季度或每年报告的\"已实现\"资本利得，对分析而言毫无意义。我们账上有大量的未实现资本利得，至于什么时候兑现、是否兑现，完全不取决于想在某个特定时点报告多少收益。让我们报告的收益更加复杂的是，通用会计准则要求外汇合约按市值计价，这一规定导致这些持仓的未实现损益就像我们已经卖出一样流入我们公布的收益中。",[14,1442,1443],{},"尽管有上述种种问题，大家可能还是想了解我们2003年和2004年报告收益的明细。以下数据反映的是实际出售，外汇收益除外——那是出售和按市值调整的综合结果。",[25,1445,1446,1459],{},[28,1447,1448],{},[31,1449,1450,1453,1456],{},[34,1451,1452],{},"分类",[34,1454,1455],{},"2004年税前收益（百万美元）",[34,1457,1458],{},"2003年税前收益（百万美元）",[47,1460,1461,1472,1483,1494,1505,1516],{},[31,1462,1463,1466,1469],{},[52,1464,1465],{},"普通股",[52,1467,1468],{},"$ 870",[52,1470,1471],{},"$ 448",[31,1473,1474,1477,1480],{},[52,1475,1476],{},"美国联邦政府债券",[52,1478,1479],{},"104",[52,1481,1482],{},"1,485",[31,1484,1485,1488,1491],{},[52,1486,1487],{},"垃圾债券",[52,1489,1490],{},"730",[52,1492,1493],{},"1,138",[31,1495,1496,1499,1502],{},[52,1497,1498],{},"外汇合约",[52,1500,1501],{},"1,839",[52,1503,1504],{},"825",[31,1506,1507,1510,1513],{},[52,1508,1509],{},"其他",[52,1511,1512],{},"(47)",[52,1514,1515],{},"233",[31,1517,1518,1521,1524],{},[52,1519,1520],{},"合计",[52,1522,1523],{},"$ 3,496",[52,1525,1526],{},"$ 4,129",[14,1528,1529],{},"垃圾债券的利润包含一部分汇兑收益。几年前我们买入这些债券时，首先考量的当然是发行人的信用质量——它们全部是美国公司。不过，其中一些公司发行了以外币计价的债券。鉴于我们对美元走势的判断，凡有这类债券可供选择，我们都优先买入。",[14,1531,1532],{},"举例来说，我们在2001年以面值的51.7%买入了2.54亿欧元的Level 3公司债券（2008年到期，年息10.75%），并在2004年12月以面值的85%售出。这笔债券以欧元交易，我们买入时欧元对美元的汇率是0.88美元，卖出时已升至1.29美元。因此，在我们总计1.63亿美元的收益中，大约8,500万美元来自市场对Level 3信用质量的重新评估，其余7,800万美元来自欧元的升值。（此外，在持有期间我们每年还收到了相当于美元成本约25%的现金利息。）",[14,1534,1535],{},"话说回来，照例还是要提醒大家：宏观经济是个极难的游戏，包括查理和我在内，很少有人在这方面展现出真正的本事。我们在汇率上的判断很可能是错的。（事实上，如今有这么多专家跟着预测美元走弱，反而让我们感到不安。）如果我们真的错了，那可就丢人丢到公开场合了。讽刺的是，如果我们选择相反的做法——把伯克希尔所有的资产都留在美元上，即使美元的价值大幅缩水——也不会有人注意到我们的错误。",[14,1537,1538,1539,1542,1543,1546],{},"约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes) 在他的巨著《通论》(",[670,1540,1541],{},"The General Theory",") 中说过：\"普世的智慧告诉我们，循规蹈矩地失败比标新立异地成功对声誉更好。\"（或者，用不那么文雅的话说，旅鼠作为一个物种可以被嘲笑，但",[670,1544,1545],{},"单独一只","旅鼠绝不会挨骂。）从声誉的角度看，查理跟我在外汇上的做法确实承受着明显的风险。但我们坚持按照自己100%拥有伯克希尔的心态来管理它。如果真是那样的话，我们不会只把钱放在美元资产上。",[10,1548,1549],{"id":1549},"其他事项",[1551,1552,1553],"ul",{},[1554,1555,1556],"li",{},"去年我告诉大家，一群田纳西大学金融专业的学生在我们17亿美元收购克莱顿房屋 (Clayton Homes) 的过程中扮演了关键角色。此前，他们由阿尔·欧克西尔 (Al Auxier) 教授带队——每年都会带一个班来——到奥马哈参观内布拉斯加家具店 (Nebraska Furniture Mart) 和波仙珠宝 (Borsheim's)，去Gorat's吃牛排，在Kiewit总部和我来一场问答会。这些访客，如同前来参加股东年会的人一样，对这座城市和热情友好的市民留下了深刻的印象。\n之后其他大专院校也纷纷来访。这个学年，我们将接待来自芝加哥、达特茅斯（塔克商学院）、特拉华州立、佛罗里达州立、印第安纳、爱荷华、爱荷华州立、马里兰、内布拉斯加、西北拿撒勒、宾夕法尼亚（沃顿商学院）、斯坦福、田纳西、得克萨斯、得克萨斯A&M、多伦多（罗特曼商学院）、联合大学和犹他等学校的班级，每班30到100人不等。大多数学生是MBA候选人，他们的素质给我留下了深刻的印象。他们对商业和投资兴趣浓厚，但从他们提的问题可以看出，赚钱并不是他们心中唯一的事。每次与他们见面后，我的心情都很好。",[14,1558,1559],{},"在交流时，我会给新来的同学讲田纳西那群学生发现克莱顿公司的故事。我这么做的精神就像那个农夫，拿着一颗鸵鸟蛋走进鸡舍，告诫自家母鸡：\"姑娘们，我不想抱怨什么，但这只是竞争对手的一个小样本。\"到目前为止，这些新同学还没有给我们带来什么交易。不过他们的使命已经被我说得很清楚了。",[1551,1561,1562],{},[1554,1563,1564],{},"大家应当注意，有一项会计规则在以\"今天吃点苦、明天得回报\"的方式轻微扭曲了我们的财务报表。伯克希尔从那些本来准备将保单退保换取现金的个人和企业手中购买人寿保单。作为保单的新持有人，我们支付到期的保费，最终——当原持有人过世时——我们领取保单的面值。\n我们购买保单时，原持有人的健康状况通常良好。尽管如此，我们支付的价格总是远高于保单的现金退保价值（CSV）。有时原持有人已经用CSV做了抵押借款来支付保费。在这种情况下，剩余的CSV很少，而我们的收购价是原持有人自行退保所能拿到的金额的许多倍。",[14,1566,1567],{},"按照会计准则，我们在购买保单时必须立即将超出CSV的支付金额记为已实现资本损失。此外，每年我们还必须就支付的续期保费超出CSV增加额的部分追加费用。但显然，我们不认为这些会计记录代表真正的经济损失。如果我们这样认为，就不会去买这些保单了。",[14,1569,1570],{},"2004年，我们因购买保单（以及维持保单所需支付的保费）净\"亏损\"了2.07亿美元，在损益表中从已实现投资收益中扣减（列在\"其他\"项下）。未来当我们收到保险理赔金时，超出当时CSV的部分将被记为已实现投资收益。",[1551,1572,1573,1576],{},[1554,1574,1575],{},"泡沫之后的两项公司治理改革对伯克希尔特别有用，而我很后悔没有多年前就付诸实施。第一项是定期召开没有CEO出席的董事会议。我先后在19家公司担任过董事，在很多场合，这一做法本可以让一些值得商榷的方案得到更彻底的审视。在少数情况下，必要的CEO更替也本可以更快地执行。这个做法有百利而无一害。\n第二项改革是\"检举热线\"——一种让员工可以直接向我和董事会审计委员会提供信息而不用担心遭到报复的渠道。伯克希尔极端分权化的管理模式使这一制度对我和审计委员会都格外宝贵。（在一个拥有18万员工的庞大\"城市\"里——这是伯克希尔目前的雇员人数——不是每只掉下来的麻雀都能被总部注意到的。）我们收到的大多数投诉属于\"我旁边那家伙有口臭\"之类，但偶尔我也从中了解到子公司的一些重要问题，否则就会被我错过。这些问题通常不是审计能发现的类型，而是涉及人事管理和业务操作。如果几十年前我就设立了检举热线，伯克希尔今天会更有价值。",[1554,1577,1578],{},"查理跟我喜欢股东们以所有者的心态去思考和行动。有时候这需要他们主动一些。而在这方面，大型机构投资者应当身先士卒。\n然而到目前为止，机构投资者的行动可谓乏善可陈。通常他们纠结于细枝末节，却忽略了三个真正重要的问题。第一，公司的CEO是否称职？第二，他\u002F她的薪酬是否过分？第三，拟议中的收购究竟是在创造还是在毁灭每股价值？",[14,1580,1581],{},"在这些问题上，CEO的利益很可能与股东的利益大相径庭。而且董事们有时缺乏足够的见识或胆量来否决CEO。因此，大股东们聚焦于这三个问题并在必要时大声发声，就显得至关重要。",[14,1583,1584],{},"结果很多人只是按照一份\"清单\"来照本宣科地处理当前热点问题。去年我自己就成了这种做法的\"受害者\"。几位机构股东和他们的顾问认定，我作为可口可乐 (Coca-Cola) 董事缺乏\"独立性\"。一个团体想把我从董事会赶走，另一个只想把我踢出审计委员会。",[14,1586,1587],{},"我的第一反应是偷偷资助第二个团体。谁会想待在审计委员会里，这我真想不通。但既然董事总得被分配到某个委员会，而没有哪个CEO希望我待在他的薪酬委员会里，所以被派到审计委员会就常常是我的命运。结果那些反对我的机构没有成功，我还是被留在了审计委员会的岗位上。（我忍住了要求重新计票的冲动。）",[14,1589,1590],{},"有些机构质疑我的\"独立性\"，理由之一是麦克莱恩 (McLane) 和冰雪皇后 (Dairy Queen) 购买大量可口可乐产品。（他们难道想让我们改买百事可乐？）但独立性在韦氏词典中的定义是\"不受他人控制\"。我实在想不通，当天平的另一边是伯克希尔持有的80亿美元可口可乐股票时，怎么会有人得出结论说我们购买可口可乐产品会\"控制\"我的决策。假设我还算有那么一丁点理性的话，最基本的算术就应该能说明，我的心是站在可口可乐的股东这边，而不是它的管理层那边。",[14,1592,1593],{},"我忍不住要提一句，在独立性这件事上，耶稣比那些抗议的机构看得透彻得多。在《马太福音》6:21中，他说过：\"你的财宝在哪里，你的心也在那里。\"即便对机构投资者来说，80亿美元也绝对称得上\"财宝\"，远远盖过伯克希尔与可口可乐之间日常交易所能赚取的利润。",[14,1595,1596,1597,1600,1601,1604,1605,1608,1609,1612],{},"以圣经的标准衡量，伯克希尔的董事会堪称模范：（a）",[670,1598,1599],{},"每位","董事的家族都持有至少400万美元的伯克希尔股票；（b）这些股份",[670,1602,1603],{},"没有任何","是通过期权或赠与从伯克希尔获得的；（c）",[670,1606,1607],{},"没有","董事从公司领取的委员会费、顾问费或董事费占其年收入的重要比例；（d）虽然我们有标准的公司赔偿安排，但我们",[670,1610,1611],{},"不为","董事购买责任保险。",[14,1614,1615],{},"在伯克希尔，董事们与股东走在同一条路上。",[14,1617,1618],{},"查理跟我真是幸运。我们拥有自己热爱的工作，每天都有才华横溢、朝气蓬勃的同事从方方面面给予帮助。难怪我们每天都跳着踢踏舞去上班。但没有什么比和我们的股东合伙人在伯克希尔年会上相聚更令人开心的了。4月30日Qwest中心见，来参加我们一年一度的资本家伍德斯托克音乐节吧。",[14,1620,1621],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[14,1623,1624],{},"董事会主席",[14,1626,1627],{},"2005年2月28日",[1629,1630,1633,1638],"section",{"className":1631,"dataFootnotes":660},[1632],"footnotes",[21,1634,1637],{"className":1635,"id":659},[1636],"sr-only","Footnotes",[1639,1640,1641],"ol",{},[1554,1642,1644,1645],{"id":1643},"user-content-fn-*","本报告中使用的所有数字均适用于伯克希尔的A股，它是公司在1996年之前唯一流通股的继承者。B股的经济利益为A股的三十分之一。 ",[655,1646,1651],{"href":1647,"ariaLabel":1648,"className":1649,"dataFootnoteBackref":660},"#user-content-fnref-*","Back to reference 1",[1650],"data-footnote-backref","↩",{"title":660,"searchDepth":1653,"depth":1653,"links":1654},2,[1655,1656,1657,1658],{"id":23,"depth":1653,"text":23},{"id":707,"depth":1653,"text":707},{"id":917,"depth":1653,"text":917},{"id":659,"depth":1653,"text":1637},"致股东信",null,"2004年巴菲特致股东信，讨论内在价值估算、保险业务强劲表现及投资组合业绩","md",{},true,75,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1661},"2004 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","vybgwEUcKGnJmkJyDpg3zyTPk3WXWBLMvOHDRXZAklE","buffett",[1674,1678,1682,1686,1689,1692,1695,1699,1702,1705,1709,1712,1715,1719,1722,1725,1729,1732,1735,1739,1742,1745,1749,1752,1755,1759,1762,1765,1769,1772,1775,1779,1782,1785,1789,1792,1795,1799,1802,1805,1809,1812,1815,1819,1822,1825,1829,1832,1835,1839,1842,1845,1849,1852,1855,1859,1862,1865,1869,1872,1875,1879,1882,1885,1889,1892,1895,1899,1902,1905,1909,1912,1915,1919,1922,1925,1929,1932,1935,1939,1942,1945,1949,1952,1955,1959,1962,1965,1969,1972,1975,1979,1982,1985,1989,1992,1995,1999,2002,2005,2009,2012,2016,2019,2023,2026,2030,2033,2037,2040,2044,2047,2051,2054,2058,2061,2065,2068,2072,2075,2079,2082,2086,2089,2093,2096,2100,2103,2107,2110,2114,2117,2121,2124,2128,2131,2135,2138,2142,2145,2149,2152,2156,2159,2163,2166,2170,2173,2177,2180,2184,2187,2191,2194,2198,2201,2205,2208,2212,2215,2219,2222,2226,2229,2233,2236,2240,2243,2247,2250,2254,2257,2261,2264,2268,2271,2275,2278,2282,2285,2289,2292,2293,2296,2300,2303,2307,2310,2314,2317,2321,2324,2328,2331,2335,2338,2342,2345,2349,2352,2356,2359,2363,2366,2370,2373,2377,2380,2384,2387,2391,2394,2398,2401,2405,2408,2412,2415,2419,2422,2426,2429,2433,2436,2440,2443,2447,2450,2454,2457,2461,2464,2468,2471,2475,2479,2483,2487,2491,2495,2499,2503,2507,2511,2515,2519,2523,2527,2531,2535,2539,2543,2547,2551,2555,2559,2563,2567,2571,2575,2579,2583,2587,2591,2595,2599,2603,2607,2611,2615,2619,2623,2627,2631,2635,2639,2643,2647,2651,2655,2659,2663,2667,2671],{"title":1675,"slug":1676,"category":1659,"order":1677},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1679,"slug":1680,"category":1681,"order":1677},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1683,"slug":1684,"category":1685,"order":1677},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1687,"slug":1688,"category":1659,"order":1653},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1690,"slug":1691,"category":1681,"order":1653},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1693,"slug":1694,"category":1685,"order":1653},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1696,"slug":1697,"category":1659,"order":1698},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1700,"slug":1701,"category":1681,"order":1698},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1703,"slug":1704,"category":1685,"order":1698},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1706,"slug":1707,"category":1659,"order":1708},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1710,"slug":1711,"category":1681,"order":1708},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1713,"slug":1714,"category":1685,"order":1708},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1716,"slug":1717,"category":1659,"order":1718},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1720,"slug":1721,"category":1681,"order":1718},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1723,"slug":1724,"category":1685,"order":1718},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1726,"slug":1727,"category":1659,"order":1728},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1730,"slug":1731,"category":1681,"order":1728},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1733,"slug":1734,"category":1685,"order":1728},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1736,"slug":1737,"category":1659,"order":1738},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1740,"slug":1741,"category":1681,"order":1738},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1743,"slug":1744,"category":1685,"order":1738},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1746,"slug":1747,"category":1659,"order":1748},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1750,"slug":1751,"category":1681,"order":1748},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1753,"slug":1754,"category":1685,"order":1748},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1756,"slug":1757,"category":1659,"order":1758},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1760,"slug":1761,"category":1681,"order":1758},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1763,"slug":1764,"category":1685,"order":1758},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1766,"slug":1767,"category":1659,"order":1768},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1770,"slug":1771,"category":1681,"order":1768},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1773,"slug":1774,"category":1685,"order":1768},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1776,"slug":1777,"category":1659,"order":1778},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1780,"slug":1781,"category":1681,"order":1778},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1783,"slug":1784,"category":1685,"order":1778},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1786,"slug":1787,"category":1659,"order":1788},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1790,"slug":1791,"category":1681,"order":1788},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1793,"slug":1794,"category":1685,"order":1788},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1796,"slug":1797,"category":1659,"order":1798},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1800,"slug":1801,"category":1681,"order":1798},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1803,"slug":1804,"category":1685,"order":1798},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1806,"slug":1807,"category":1659,"order":1808},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1810,"slug":1811,"category":1681,"order":1808},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1813,"slug":1814,"category":1685,"order":1808},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1816,"slug":1817,"category":1659,"order":1818},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1820,"slug":1821,"category":1681,"order":1818},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1823,"slug":1824,"category":1685,"order":1818},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1826,"slug":1827,"category":1659,"order":1828},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":1830,"slug":1831,"category":1681,"order":1828},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":1833,"slug":1834,"category":1685,"order":1828},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1836,"slug":1837,"category":1659,"order":1838},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":1840,"slug":1841,"category":1681,"order":1838},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":1843,"slug":1844,"category":1685,"order":1838},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1846,"slug":1847,"category":1659,"order":1848},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":1850,"slug":1851,"category":1681,"order":1848},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":1853,"slug":1854,"category":1685,"order":1848},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1856,"slug":1857,"category":1659,"order":1858},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":1860,"slug":1861,"category":1681,"order":1858},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":1863,"slug":1864,"category":1685,"order":1858},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1866,"slug":1867,"category":1659,"order":1868},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":1870,"slug":1871,"category":1681,"order":1868},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1873,"slug":1874,"category":1685,"order":1868},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1876,"slug":1877,"category":1659,"order":1878},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":1880,"slug":1881,"category":1681,"order":1878},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1883,"slug":1884,"category":1685,"order":1878},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1886,"slug":1887,"category":1659,"order":1888},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":1890,"slug":1891,"category":1681,"order":1888},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":1893,"slug":1894,"category":1685,"order":1888},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1896,"slug":1897,"category":1659,"order":1898},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":1900,"slug":1901,"category":1681,"order":1898},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1903,"slug":1904,"category":1685,"order":1898},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1906,"slug":1907,"category":1659,"order":1908},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":1910,"slug":1911,"category":1681,"order":1908},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":1913,"slug":1914,"category":1685,"order":1908},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1916,"slug":1917,"category":1659,"order":1918},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":1920,"slug":1921,"category":1681,"order":1918},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":1923,"slug":1924,"category":1685,"order":1918},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1926,"slug":1927,"category":1659,"order":1928},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":1930,"slug":1931,"category":1681,"order":1928},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1933,"slug":1934,"category":1685,"order":1928},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1936,"slug":1937,"category":1659,"order":1938},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":1940,"slug":1941,"category":1681,"order":1938},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":1943,"slug":1944,"category":1685,"order":1938},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1946,"slug":1947,"category":1659,"order":1948},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":1950,"slug":1951,"category":1681,"order":1948},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":1953,"slug":1954,"category":1685,"order":1948},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1956,"slug":1957,"category":1659,"order":1958},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":1960,"slug":1961,"category":1681,"order":1958},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":1963,"slug":1964,"category":1685,"order":1958},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1966,"slug":1967,"category":1659,"order":1968},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":1970,"slug":1971,"category":1681,"order":1968},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":1973,"slug":1974,"category":1685,"order":1968},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1976,"slug":1977,"category":1659,"order":1978},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":1980,"slug":1981,"category":1681,"order":1978},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":1983,"slug":1984,"category":1685,"order":1978},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1986,"slug":1987,"category":1659,"order":1988},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":1990,"slug":1991,"category":1681,"order":1988},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":1993,"slug":1994,"category":1685,"order":1988},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1996,"slug":1997,"category":1659,"order":1998},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":2000,"slug":2001,"category":1681,"order":1998},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":2003,"slug":2004,"category":1685,"order":1998},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2006,"slug":2007,"category":1659,"order":2008},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":2010,"slug":2011,"category":1681,"order":2008},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2013,"slug":2014,"category":1659,"order":2015},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":2017,"slug":2018,"category":1681,"order":2015},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":2020,"slug":2021,"category":1659,"order":2022},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":2024,"slug":2025,"category":1681,"order":2022},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":2027,"slug":2028,"category":1659,"order":2029},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":2031,"slug":2032,"category":1681,"order":2029},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":2034,"slug":2035,"category":1659,"order":2036},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":2038,"slug":2039,"category":1681,"order":2036},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2041,"slug":2042,"category":1659,"order":2043},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":2045,"slug":2046,"category":1681,"order":2043},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2048,"slug":2049,"category":1659,"order":2050},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2052,"slug":2053,"category":1681,"order":2050},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2055,"slug":2056,"category":1659,"order":2057},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2059,"slug":2060,"category":1681,"order":2057},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2062,"slug":2063,"category":1659,"order":2064},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2066,"slug":2067,"category":1681,"order":2064},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2069,"slug":2070,"category":1659,"order":2071},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2073,"slug":2074,"category":1681,"order":2071},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2076,"slug":2077,"category":1659,"order":2078},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2080,"slug":2081,"category":1681,"order":2078},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2083,"slug":2084,"category":1659,"order":2085},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2087,"slug":2088,"category":1681,"order":2085},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2090,"slug":2091,"category":1659,"order":2092},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2094,"slug":2095,"category":1681,"order":2092},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2097,"slug":2098,"category":1659,"order":2099},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2101,"slug":2102,"category":1681,"order":2099},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2104,"slug":2105,"category":1659,"order":2106},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2108,"slug":2109,"category":1681,"order":2106},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2111,"slug":2112,"category":1659,"order":2113},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2115,"slug":2116,"category":1681,"order":2113},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2118,"slug":2119,"category":1659,"order":2120},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2122,"slug":2123,"category":1681,"order":2120},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2125,"slug":2126,"category":1659,"order":2127},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2129,"slug":2130,"category":1681,"order":2127},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2132,"slug":2133,"category":1659,"order":2134},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2136,"slug":2137,"category":1681,"order":2134},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2139,"slug":2140,"category":1659,"order":2141},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2143,"slug":2144,"category":1681,"order":2141},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2146,"slug":2147,"category":1659,"order":2148},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2150,"slug":2151,"category":1681,"order":2148},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2153,"slug":2154,"category":1659,"order":2155},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2157,"slug":2158,"category":1681,"order":2155},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2160,"slug":2161,"category":1659,"order":2162},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2164,"slug":2165,"category":1681,"order":2162},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2167,"slug":2168,"category":1659,"order":2169},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2171,"slug":2172,"category":1681,"order":2169},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2174,"slug":2175,"category":1659,"order":2176},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2178,"slug":2179,"category":1681,"order":2176},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2181,"slug":2182,"category":1659,"order":2183},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2185,"slug":2186,"category":1681,"order":2183},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2188,"slug":2189,"category":1659,"order":2190},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2192,"slug":2193,"category":1681,"order":2190},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2195,"slug":2196,"category":1659,"order":2197},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2199,"slug":2200,"category":1681,"order":2197},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2202,"slug":2203,"category":1659,"order":2204},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2206,"slug":2207,"category":1681,"order":2204},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2209,"slug":2210,"category":1659,"order":2211},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2213,"slug":2214,"category":1681,"order":2211},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2216,"slug":2217,"category":1659,"order":2218},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2220,"slug":2221,"category":1681,"order":2218},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2223,"slug":2224,"category":1659,"order":2225},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2227,"slug":2228,"category":1681,"order":2225},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2230,"slug":2231,"category":1659,"order":2232},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2234,"slug":2235,"category":1681,"order":2232},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2237,"slug":2238,"category":1659,"order":2239},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2241,"slug":2242,"category":1681,"order":2239},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2244,"slug":2245,"category":1659,"order":2246},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2248,"slug":2249,"category":1681,"order":2246},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2251,"slug":2252,"category":1659,"order":2253},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2255,"slug":2256,"category":1681,"order":2253},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2258,"slug":2259,"category":1659,"order":2260},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2262,"slug":2263,"category":1681,"order":2260},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2265,"slug":2266,"category":1659,"order":2267},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2269,"slug":2270,"category":1681,"order":2267},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2272,"slug":2273,"category":1659,"order":2274},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2276,"slug":2277,"category":1681,"order":2274},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2279,"slug":2280,"category":1659,"order":2281},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2283,"slug":2284,"category":1681,"order":2281},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2286,"slug":2287,"category":1659,"order":2288},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2290,"slug":2291,"category":1681,"order":2288},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":5,"slug":1669,"category":1659,"order":1665},{"title":2294,"slug":2295,"category":1681,"order":1665},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2297,"slug":2298,"category":1659,"order":2299},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2301,"slug":2302,"category":1681,"order":2299},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2304,"slug":2305,"category":1659,"order":2306},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2308,"slug":2309,"category":1681,"order":2306},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2311,"slug":2312,"category":1659,"order":2313},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2315,"slug":2316,"category":1681,"order":2313},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2318,"slug":2319,"category":1659,"order":2320},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2322,"slug":2323,"category":1681,"order":2320},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2325,"slug":2326,"category":1659,"order":2327},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2329,"slug":2330,"category":1681,"order":2327},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2332,"slug":2333,"category":1659,"order":2334},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2336,"slug":2337,"category":1681,"order":2334},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2339,"slug":2340,"category":1659,"order":2341},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2343,"slug":2344,"category":1681,"order":2341},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2346,"slug":2347,"category":1659,"order":2348},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2350,"slug":2351,"category":1681,"order":2348},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2353,"slug":2354,"category":1659,"order":2355},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2357,"slug":2358,"category":1681,"order":2355},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2360,"slug":2361,"category":1659,"order":2362},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2364,"slug":2365,"category":1681,"order":2362},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2367,"slug":2368,"category":1659,"order":2369},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2371,"slug":2372,"category":1681,"order":2369},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2374,"slug":2375,"category":1659,"order":2376},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2378,"slug":2379,"category":1681,"order":2376},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2381,"slug":2382,"category":1659,"order":2383},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2385,"slug":2386,"category":1681,"order":2383},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2388,"slug":2389,"category":1659,"order":2390},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2392,"slug":2393,"category":1681,"order":2390},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2395,"slug":2396,"category":1659,"order":2397},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2399,"slug":2400,"category":1681,"order":2397},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2402,"slug":2403,"category":1659,"order":2404},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2406,"slug":2407,"category":1681,"order":2404},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2409,"slug":2410,"category":1659,"order":2411},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2413,"slug":2414,"category":1681,"order":2411},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2416,"slug":2417,"category":1659,"order":2418},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2420,"slug":2421,"category":1681,"order":2418},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2423,"slug":2424,"category":1659,"order":2425},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2427,"slug":2428,"category":1681,"order":2425},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2430,"slug":2431,"category":1659,"order":2432},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2434,"slug":2435,"category":1681,"order":2432},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2437,"slug":2438,"category":1659,"order":2439},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2441,"slug":2442,"category":1681,"order":2439},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2444,"slug":2445,"category":1659,"order":2446},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":2448,"slug":2449,"category":1681,"order":2446},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2451,"slug":2452,"category":1659,"order":2453},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2455,"slug":2456,"category":1681,"order":2453},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2458,"slug":2459,"category":1659,"order":2460},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2462,"slug":2463,"category":1681,"order":2460},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2465,"slug":2466,"category":1659,"order":2467},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":2469,"slug":2470,"category":1681,"order":2467},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":2472,"slug":2473,"category":1681,"order":2474},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":2476,"slug":2477,"category":1681,"order":2478},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":2480,"slug":2481,"category":1681,"order":2482},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":2484,"slug":2485,"category":1681,"order":2486},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":2488,"slug":2489,"category":1681,"order":2490},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":2492,"slug":2493,"category":1681,"order":2494},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":2496,"slug":2497,"category":1681,"order":2498},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":2500,"slug":2501,"category":1681,"order":2502},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":2504,"slug":2505,"category":1681,"order":2506},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":2508,"slug":2509,"category":1681,"order":2510},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":2512,"slug":2513,"category":1681,"order":2514},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":2516,"slug":2517,"category":1681,"order":2518},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":2520,"slug":2521,"category":1681,"order":2522},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":2524,"slug":2525,"category":1681,"order":2526},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":2528,"slug":2529,"category":1681,"order":2530},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":2532,"slug":2533,"category":1681,"order":2534},"亚利桑那州立大学雷鸟全球领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安采访沃伦·巴菲特（2015年）","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":2536,"slug":2537,"category":1681,"order":2538},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":2540,"slug":2541,"category":1681,"order":2542},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":2544,"slug":2545,"category":1681,"order":2546},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":2548,"slug":2549,"category":1681,"order":2550},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 年哥伦比亚大学高校面谈——人生最美好的事是什么？》","ba-fei-te-2017-nian-ge-lun-bi-ya-da-xue-gao-xiao-mian-tan-ren-sheng-zui-mei-hao-de-shi-shi-shi-me",120,{"title":2552,"slug":2553,"category":1681,"order":2554},"巴菲特：2017年对话北京大学学生：最好的投资是投资自己","ba-fei-te-2017nian-dui-hua-bei-jing-da-xue-xue-sheng-zui-hao-de-tou-zi-shi-tou-zi-zi-ji",121,{"title":2556,"slug":2557,"category":1681,"order":2558},"巴菲特：2017年接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",122,{"title":2560,"slug":2561,"category":1681,"order":2562},"巴菲特：2017年接受PBS NEWS专访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-pbs-newszhuan-fang",123,{"title":2564,"slug":2565,"category":1681,"order":2566},"巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te",124,{"title":2568,"slug":2569,"category":1681,"order":2570},"巴菲特：2017年美国的未来","ba-fei-te-2017nian-mei-guo-de-wei-lai",125,{"title":2572,"slug":2573,"category":1681,"order":2574},"巴菲特：2018年再度邀请北大光华学子共进午餐问答全记录","ba-fei-te-2018nian-zai-du-yao-qing-bei-da-guang-hua-xue-zi-gong-jin-wu-can-wen-da-quan-ji-lu",126,{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":1681,"order":2578},"巴菲特：2018年时代周刊-分享美国财富的秘密","ba-fei-te-2018nian-shi-dai-zhou-kan-fen-xiang-mei-guo-cai-fu-de-mi-mi",127,{"title":2580,"slug":2581,"category":1681,"order":2582},"巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang",128,{"title":2584,"slug":2585,"category":1681,"order":2586},"巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",129,{"title":2588,"slug":2589,"category":1681,"order":2590},"巴菲特：2020年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2020nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",130,{"title":2592,"slug":2593,"category":1681,"order":2594},"巴菲特：2020年给内布拉斯加大学林肯分校2020届毕业生的建议","ba-fei-te-2020nian-gei-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-2020jie-bi-ye-sheng-de-jian-yi",131,{"title":2596,"slug":2597,"category":1681,"order":2598},"巴菲特：2021年专访《成为巴菲特》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-zhuan-fang-cheng-wei-ba-fei-te",132,{"title":2600,"slug":2601,"category":1681,"order":2602},"巴菲特：2021年巴菲特芒格接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2021nian-ba-fei-te-mang-ge-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",133,{"title":2604,"slug":2605,"category":1681,"order":2606},"巴菲特：2021年让观众无言以对 !有史以来最鼓舞人心的演讲之一","ba-fei-te-2021nian-rang-guan-zhong-wu-yan-yi-dui-you-shi-yi-lai-zui-gu-wu-ren-xin-de-yan-jiang-zhi-yi",134,{"title":2608,"slug":2609,"category":1681,"order":2610},"巴菲特：2021年采访《沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略：如何像传奇一样生活和投资（完整访谈）》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-cai-fang-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-tou-zi-ce-lue-ru-he-xiang-chuan-qi-yi-yang-sheng-huo-he-tou-zi-wan-zheng-fang-tan",135,{"title":2612,"slug":2613,"category":1681,"order":2614},"巴菲特：2022年32 届年度格雷厄姆和多德早餐会","ba-fei-te-2022nian-32-jie-nian-du-ge-lei-e-mu-he-duo-de-zao-can-hui",136,{"title":2616,"slug":2617,"category":1681,"order":2618},"巴菲特：2022年和查理罗斯对谈","ba-fei-te-2022nian-he-cha-li-luo-si-dui-tan",137,{"title":2620,"slug":2621,"category":1681,"order":2622},"巴菲特：2023年 查理芒格：伯克希尔的总设计师","ba-fei-te-2023nian-cha-li-mang-ge-bo-ke-xi-er-de-zong-she-ji-shi",138,{"title":2624,"slug":2625,"category":1681,"order":2626},"巴菲特：初学者如何投资--3 条简单的规则","ba-fei-te-2023nian-chu-xue-zhe-ru-he-tou-zi-3-tiao-jian-dan-de-gui-ze",139,{"title":2628,"slug":2629,"category":1681,"order":2630},"巴菲特：2023年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2023nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",140,{"title":2632,"slug":2633,"category":1681,"order":2634},"巴菲特：每个投资者都会犯的 10 个错误","ba-fei-te-2023nian-mei-ge-tou-zi-zhe-du-hui-fan-de-10-ge-cuo-wu",141,{"title":2636,"slug":2637,"category":1681,"order":2638},"巴菲特：2025年接受cbs采访","ba-fei-te-2025nian-jie-shou-cbscai-fang",142,{"title":2640,"slug":2641,"category":1681,"order":2642},"2026伯克希尔股东大会 CNBC专访巴菲特（完整纯中文）","2026bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui-cnbczhuan-fang-ba-fei-te",143,{"title":2644,"slug":2645,"category":1681,"order":2646},"巴菲特：2026年最新采访 CNBC《财经论谈》","ba-fei-te-2026nian-zui-xin-cai-fang-cnbc-cai-jing-lun-tan",144,{"title":2648,"slug":2649,"category":1681,"order":2650},"伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来","bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai",145,{"title":2652,"slug":2653,"category":1681,"order":2654},"巴菲特72条投资经典语录","ba-fei-te-72tiao-tou-zi-jing-dian-yu-lu",146,{"title":2656,"slug":2657,"category":1681,"order":2658},"巴菲特：你应该了解珠宝生意","ba-fei-te-ni-ying-gai-liao-jie-zhu-bao-sheng-yi",147,{"title":2660,"slug":2661,"category":1681,"order":2662},"巴菲特：如何建立能力圈","ba-fei-te-ru-he-jian-li-neng-li-quan",148,{"title":2664,"slug":2665,"category":1681,"order":2666},"巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑","ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji",149,{"title":2668,"slug":2669,"category":1681,"order":2670},"康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值","kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi",150,{"title":2672,"slug":2673,"category":1681,"order":2674},"考夫曼：Glenair 企业文化","kao-fu-man-glenair-qi-ye-wen-hua",151,[2676,2680,2683,2686,2689,2692,2695,2698,2701,2705,2709,2712,2715,2718,2721,2724,2727,2730,2733,2736,2739,2742,2745,2748,2751,2755,2758,2761,2764,2767,2770,2773,2776,2779,2782,2786,2789,2792,2795,2798,2801,2804,2807,2811,2814,2817,2820,2823,2826,2829,2832,2835,2838,2841,2844,2847,2850,2853,2856,2859,2862,2865,2868,2871,2874,2877,2880,2883,2886,2889,2892,2897,2901,2905,2909,2913,2917,2921,2925,2929,2933,2937,2941,2945,2949,2953,2957,2961,2965,2969,2973],{"title":2677,"slug":2678,"category":2679,"order":1677},"本分","benfen","核心哲学",{"title":2681,"slug":2682,"category":2679,"order":1653},"平常心","pingchangxin",{"title":2684,"slug":2685,"category":2679,"order":1698},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing",{"title":2687,"slug":2688,"category":2679,"order":1708},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui",{"title":2690,"slug":2691,"category":2679,"order":1718},"能力圈","nengliquan",{"title":2693,"slug":2694,"category":2679,"order":1728},"不做什么","buzuoshenme",{"title":2696,"slug":2697,"category":2679,"order":1738},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou",{"title":2699,"slug":2700,"category":2679,"order":1748},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang",{"title":2702,"slug":2703,"category":2704,"order":1758},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","投资理念",{"title":2706,"slug":2707,"category":2708,"order":1768},"负债","fuzhai","财务指标",{"title":2710,"slug":2711,"category":2704,"order":1768},"商业模式","shangyemoshi",{"title":2713,"slug":2714,"category":2704,"order":1778},"护城河","huchenghe",{"title":2716,"slug":2717,"category":2708,"order":1778},"净现金","jingxianjin",{"title":2719,"slug":2720,"category":2708,"order":1788},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing",{"title":2722,"slug":2723,"category":2704,"order":1788},"现金流","xianjinliu",{"title":2725,"slug":2726,"category":2708,"order":1798},"真实利润","zhenshilirun",{"title":2728,"slug":2729,"category":2704,"order":1798},"折现","zhexian",{"title":2731,"slug":2732,"category":2704,"order":1808},"安全边际","anquanbianji",{"title":2734,"slug":2735,"category":2708,"order":1808},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan",{"title":2737,"slug":2738,"category":2704,"order":1818},"基本面","jibenmian",{"title":2740,"slug":2741,"category":2704,"order":1828},"机会成本","jihuichengben",{"title":2743,"slug":2744,"category":2704,"order":1838},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou",{"title":2746,"slug":2747,"category":2704,"order":1848},"投机","touji",{"title":2749,"slug":2750,"category":2704,"order":1858},"止损","zhisun",{"title":2752,"slug":2753,"category":2754,"order":1868},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业经营",{"title":2756,"slug":2757,"category":2754,"order":1878},"品牌","pinpai",{"title":2759,"slug":2760,"category":2754,"order":1888},"差异化","chayihua",{"title":2762,"slug":2763,"category":2754,"order":1898},"用户体验","yonghutiyan",{"title":2765,"slug":2766,"category":2754,"order":1908},"渠道","qudao",{"title":2768,"slug":2769,"category":2754,"order":1918},"平台","pingtai",{"title":2771,"slug":2772,"category":2754,"order":1928},"生态系统","shengtaixitong",{"title":2774,"slug":2775,"category":2754,"order":1938},"单一产品","danyichanpin",{"title":2777,"slug":2778,"category":2754,"order":1948},"造钟人","zaozhongren",{"title":2780,"slug":2781,"category":2754,"order":1958},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu",{"title":2783,"slug":2784,"category":2785,"order":1968},"进取心","jinquxin","品格与心性",{"title":2787,"slug":2788,"category":2785,"order":1978},"耐心","naixin",{"title":2790,"slug":2791,"category":2785,"order":1988},"责任心","zerenxin",{"title":2793,"slug":2794,"category":2785,"order":1998},"爱心","aixin",{"title":2796,"slug":2797,"category":2785,"order":2008},"信誉","xinyu",{"title":2799,"slug":2800,"category":2785,"order":2015},"正直","zhengzhi",{"title":2802,"slug":2803,"category":2785,"order":2022},"理性","lixing",{"title":2805,"slug":2806,"category":2785,"order":2029},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi",{"title":2808,"slug":2809,"category":2810,"order":2467},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","访谈实录",{"title":2812,"slug":2813,"category":2810,"order":2474},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua",{"title":2815,"slug":2816,"category":2810,"order":2478},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu",{"title":2818,"slug":2819,"category":2810,"order":2482},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang",{"title":2821,"slug":2822,"category":2810,"order":2486},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang",{"title":2824,"slug":2825,"category":2810,"order":2490},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing",{"title":2827,"slug":2828,"category":2810,"order":2494},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong",{"title":2830,"slug":2831,"category":2810,"order":2498},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan",{"title":2833,"slug":2834,"category":2810,"order":2502},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang",{"title":2836,"slug":2837,"category":2810,"order":2506},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou",{"title":2839,"slug":2840,"category":2810,"order":2510},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu",{"title":2842,"slug":2843,"category":2810,"order":2514},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang",{"title":2845,"slug":2846,"category":2810,"order":2518},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan",{"title":2848,"slug":2849,"category":2810,"order":2522},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu",{"title":2851,"slug":2852,"category":2810,"order":2526},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu",{"title":2854,"slug":2855,"category":2810,"order":2530},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo",{"title":2857,"slug":2858,"category":2810,"order":2534},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang",{"title":2860,"slug":2861,"category":2810,"order":2538},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan",{"title":2863,"slug":2864,"category":2810,"order":2542},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu",{"title":2866,"slug":2867,"category":2810,"order":2546},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus",{"title":2869,"slug":2870,"category":2810,"order":2550},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh",{"title":2872,"slug":2873,"category":2810,"order":2554},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj",{"title":2875,"slug":2876,"category":2810,"order":2558},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao",{"title":2878,"slug":2879,"category":2810,"order":2562},"2013年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang",{"title":2881,"slug":2882,"category":2810,"order":2566},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang",{"title":2884,"slug":2885,"category":2810,"order":2570},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban",{"title":2887,"slug":2888,"category":2810,"order":2574},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu",{"title":2890,"slug":2891,"category":2810,"order":2578},"2025年： 方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing",{"title":2893,"slug":2894,"category":2895,"order":2896},"问答录：第一章 投资大道","dadaotouziwendalu-diyizhangtouzidadao","投资问答录",200,{"title":2898,"slug":2899,"category":2895,"order":2900},"问答录：第二章 商业模式和企业文化","dadaotouziwendalu-dierzhangshangyemoshiheqiyewenhua",201,{"title":2902,"slug":2903,"category":2895,"order":2904},"问答录：第三章 公司点评","dadaotouziwendalu-disanzhanggongsidianping",202,{"title":2906,"slug":2907,"category":2895,"order":2908},"问答录：第四章 人生箴言","dadaotouziwendalu-disizhangrenshengzhenyan",203,{"title":2910,"slug":2911,"category":2895,"order":2912},"问答录：第五章 演讲与访谈","dadaotouziwendalu-diwuzhangyanjiangyufangtan",204,{"title":2914,"slug":2915,"category":2895,"order":2916},"问答录：第六章 更新","dadaotouziwendalu-diliuzhangduzhegengxin",205,{"title":2918,"slug":2919,"category":2895,"order":2920},"商业逻辑篇：第1节：伟大企业","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di1jie-weidaqiye",401,{"title":2922,"slug":2923,"category":2895,"order":2924},"商业逻辑篇：第2节：商业模式","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di2jie-shangyemoshi",402,{"title":2926,"slug":2927,"category":2895,"order":2928},"商业逻辑篇：第3节：企业文化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di3jie-qiyewenhua",403,{"title":2930,"slug":2931,"category":2895,"order":2932},"商业逻辑篇：第4节：产品、差异化与创新","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di4jie-chanpin-chayihua-yu-chuangxin",404,{"title":2934,"slug":2935,"category":2895,"order":2936},"商业逻辑篇：第5节：品牌、营销与广告","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di5jie-pinpai-yingxiao-yu-guanggao",405,{"title":2938,"slug":2939,"category":2895,"order":2940},"商业逻辑篇：第6节：收购和多元化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di6jie-shougouheduoyuanhua",406,{"title":2942,"slug":2943,"category":2895,"order":2944},"商业逻辑篇：第7节：Stop doing list（不为清单）","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di7jie-stop-doing-list-buweiqingdan",407,{"title":2946,"slug":2947,"category":2895,"order":2948},"投资问答录商业逻辑篇：前言：买股票就是买公司","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-qianyan-maiqushoujiiumaishangsi",408,{"title":2950,"slug":2951,"category":2895,"order":2952},"投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念","duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian",410,{"title":2954,"slug":2955,"category":2895,"order":2956},"投资逻辑篇：第2章：投资理解","duanyongping-touziluoji-di2jie-touzilijie",411,{"title":2958,"slug":2959,"category":2895,"order":2960},"投资问答录：第3章 golf和投资","duanyongping-touziluoji-di3zhang-golfhetouzi",412,{"title":2962,"slug":2963,"category":2895,"order":2964},"投资逻辑篇：第4章 财务理解","duanyongping-touziwendalu-touziluoji-di4zhang-caiwulijie",413,{"title":2966,"slug":2967,"category":2895,"order":2968},"投资逻辑篇：第5章：估值逻辑","duanyongping-touziluoji-di5zhang-guzhiluoji",414,{"title":2970,"slug":2971,"category":2895,"order":2972},"投资逻辑篇：第6章 投资方法论","duanyongping-touziluoji-di6zhang-touzifangfalun",415,{"title":2974,"slug":2975,"category":2895,"order":2976},"投资逻辑篇：第7章：案例分析","duanyongping-touziluoji-di7zhang-anlifenxi",416,[2978,2981,2984,2987,2991,2995,2998,3002,3004,3007,3010,3013,3017,3020,3023,3026,3029,3033,3036,3039,3042,3045,3049,3052,3055,3057,3060,3063,3066,3069,3072,3075,3078,3081,3084,3087,3090,3093,3096,3099,3102,3105,3108,3111,3114,3117,3120,3123,3126,3129,3132,3135,3138,3141,3144,3147,3150,3153,3156,3159,3162,3165,3168,3171,3174,3177,3181,3184,3187,3190,3193,3197,3200,3203,3206],{"title":2690,"slug":2979,"category":2980,"order":1677},"ability-circle","决策与战略",{"title":2982,"slug":2983,"category":2980,"order":1653},"逆向思维","inversion",{"title":2740,"slug":2985,"category":2986,"order":1698},"opportunity-cost","经济学",{"title":2988,"slug":2989,"category":2990,"order":1708},"复利","compound-interest","数学与概率论",{"title":2992,"slug":2993,"category":2994,"order":1718},"激励机制","incentives","心理学",{"title":2996,"slug":2997,"category":2990,"order":1728},"概率思维","probabilistic-thinking",{"title":2999,"slug":3000,"category":3001,"order":1738},"二阶效应","second-order-effects","哲学与逻辑",{"title":2731,"slug":3003,"category":2980,"order":1748},"margin-of-safety",{"title":3005,"slug":3006,"category":2994,"order":1758},"心理误判","psychology-of-misjudgment",{"title":3008,"slug":3009,"category":2980,"order":1768},"检查清单","checklist",{"title":3011,"slug":3012,"category":2986,"order":1778},"规模优势","scale-advantage",{"title":3014,"slug":3015,"category":3016,"order":1788},"冗余与容错","redundancy","工程学\u002F系统",{"title":3018,"slug":3019,"category":2990,"order":1798},"排列组合","combinatorics",{"title":3021,"slug":3022,"category":2990,"order":1808},"费马-帕斯卡","fermat-pascal",{"title":3024,"slug":3025,"category":2990,"order":1818},"均值回归","regression-to-the-mean",{"title":3027,"slug":3028,"category":2990,"order":1828},"量化分析","quantitative-analysis",{"title":3030,"slug":3031,"category":3032,"order":1838},"临界点\u002F相变","critical-point-phase-transition","物理学",{"title":3034,"slug":3035,"category":3032,"order":1848},"平衡态","equilibrium",{"title":3037,"slug":3038,"category":3032,"order":1858},"熵增定律","entropy",{"title":3040,"slug":3041,"category":3032,"order":1868},"能量守恒","conservation-of-energy",{"title":3043,"slug":3044,"category":3032,"order":1878},"杠杆原理","leverage",{"title":3046,"slug":3047,"category":3048,"order":1888},"自然选择","natural-selection","生物学\u002F进化论",{"title":3050,"slug":3051,"category":3048,"order":1898},"物竞天择","competition-for-resources",{"title":3053,"slug":3054,"category":3048,"order":1908},"进化思维","evolutionary-thinking",{"title":2771,"slug":3056,"category":3048,"order":1918},"ecosystem",{"title":3058,"slug":3059,"category":2994,"order":1928},"爱好倾向","liking-tendency",{"title":3061,"slug":3062,"category":2994,"order":1938},"讨厌倾向","disliking-tendency",{"title":3064,"slug":3065,"category":2994,"order":1948},"避免怀疑倾向","doubt-avoidance-tendency",{"title":3067,"slug":3068,"category":2994,"order":1958},"一致性倾向","consistency-tendency",{"title":3070,"slug":3071,"category":2994,"order":1968},"好奇心倾向","curiosity-tendency",{"title":3073,"slug":3074,"category":2994,"order":1978},"康德式公平","kantian-fairness",{"title":3076,"slug":3077,"category":2994,"order":1988},"艳羡\u002F妒忌倾向","envy-jealousy-tendency",{"title":3079,"slug":3080,"category":2994,"order":1998},"反馈倾向","reciprocation-tendency",{"title":3082,"slug":3083,"category":2994,"order":2008},"权威误导","authority-misinfluence",{"title":3085,"slug":3086,"category":2994,"order":2015},"重视理由","reason-respecting-tendency",{"title":3088,"slug":3089,"category":2994,"order":2022},"过度乐观","over-optimism",{"title":3091,"slug":3092,"category":2994,"order":2029},"损失厌恶","loss-aversion",{"title":3094,"slug":3095,"category":2994,"order":2036},"否认倾向","denial-tendency",{"title":3097,"slug":3098,"category":2994,"order":2043},"过度反应","overreaction-tendency",{"title":3100,"slug":3101,"category":2994,"order":2050},"社群影响","social-influence",{"title":3103,"slug":3104,"category":2994,"order":2057},"压力倾向","stress-influence-tendency",{"title":3106,"slug":3107,"category":2994,"order":2064},"物质主义","materialism-tendency",{"title":3109,"slug":3110,"category":2994,"order":2071},"废话倾向","twaddle-tendency",{"title":3112,"slug":3113,"category":2994,"order":2078},"确认偏误","confirmation-bias",{"title":3115,"slug":3116,"category":2994,"order":2085},"锚定效应","anchoring-effect",{"title":3118,"slug":3119,"category":2994,"order":2092},"现时偏差","present-bias",{"title":3121,"slug":3122,"category":2994,"order":2099},"贪婪倾向","greed-tendency",{"title":3124,"slug":3125,"category":2986,"order":2106},"边际成本\u002F收益","marginal-cost-benefit",{"title":3127,"slug":3128,"category":2986,"order":2113},"供需关系","supply-and-demand",{"title":3130,"slug":3131,"category":2986,"order":2120},"帕累托最优","pareto-optimality",{"title":3133,"slug":3134,"category":2986,"order":2127},"竞争性毁灭","creative-destruction",{"title":3136,"slug":3137,"category":2980,"order":2134},"双轨分析","two-track-analysis",{"title":3139,"slug":3140,"category":2980,"order":2141},"非线性思维","nonlinear-thinking",{"title":3142,"slug":3143,"category":2980,"order":2148},"极化思考","extreme-thinking",{"title":3145,"slug":3146,"category":2980,"order":2155},"必要功","necessary-work",{"title":3148,"slug":3149,"category":3016,"order":2162},"停机问题","halting-problem",{"title":3151,"slug":3152,"category":3016,"order":2169},"闭环系统","closed-loop-system",{"title":3154,"slug":3155,"category":3016,"order":2176},"故障安全","fail-safe",{"title":3157,"slug":3158,"category":3016,"order":2183},"反向设计","reverse-design",{"title":3160,"slug":3161,"category":3016,"order":2190},"瓶颈分析","bottleneck-analysis",{"title":3163,"slug":3164,"category":3001,"order":2197},"第一性原理","first-principles",{"title":3166,"slug":3167,"category":3001,"order":2204},"证伪思维","falsification",{"title":3169,"slug":3170,"category":3001,"order":2211},"奥卡姆剃刀","occams-razor",{"title":3172,"slug":3173,"category":3001,"order":2218},"中道思维","middle-way",{"title":3175,"slug":3176,"category":3001,"order":2225},"不可知论","agnosticism",{"title":3178,"slug":3179,"category":3180,"order":2232},"大数定律","law-of-large-numbers","统计学",{"title":3182,"slug":3183,"category":3180,"order":2239},"样本偏差","sample-bias",{"title":3185,"slug":3186,"category":3180,"order":2246},"相关性≠因果","correlation-not-causation",{"title":3188,"slug":3189,"category":3180,"order":2253},"幸存者偏差","survivorship-bias",{"title":3191,"slug":3192,"category":3180,"order":2260},"基本比率","base-rate",{"title":3194,"slug":3195,"category":3196,"order":2267},"社会认同","social-proof","社会学",{"title":3198,"slug":3199,"category":3196,"order":2274},"部落本能","tribal-instinct",{"title":3201,"slug":3202,"category":3196,"order":2281},"金蛋定律","golden-egg-rule",{"title":3204,"slug":3205,"category":3196,"order":2288},"互利共生","mutualism",{"title":3207,"slug":3208,"category":3196,"order":1665},"激励传导","incentive-transmission",1778147264911]