[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3300},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1764,"library-sidebar-dao":2766,"library-sidebar-models":3068},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1750,"date":1751,"description":1752,"extension":1753,"meta":1754,"navigation":1755,"order":1756,"path":1757,"seo":1758,"seoDescription":1752,"seoTitle":1759,"slug":1760,"stem":1761,"__hash__":1762,"_collection":1763},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2008 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1746},"minimark",[9,13,20,671,677,680,691,695,700,720,723,726,729,732,735,738,745,748,751,754,757,760,763,766,769,776,779,782,785,788,791,794,797,800,803,806,809,812,815,818,821,824,827,1008,1011,1014,1017,1020,1023,1026,1029,1032,1035,1038,1041,1048,1051,1134,1137,1140,1143,1146,1149,1152,1159,1170,1177,1184,1191,1194,1201,1208,1211,1218,1221,1224,1227,1230,1233,1238,1527,1530,1533,1536,1539,1542,1549,1552,1555,1558,1561,1564,1567,1570,1577,1580,1587,1590,1593,1600,1611,1618,1625,1628,1636,1639,1646,1649,1652,1655,1660,1663,1668,1671,1676,1679,1682,1685,1703,1706,1709,1712,1715,1718,1721],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2008-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[30,37,38],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[30,40,41],{},"相对表现 (1)-(2)",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,226,240,253,267,281,295,308,322,336,348,361,374,388,402,416,428,442,456,469,483,497,511,525,539,553,566,579,592,605,619,630,644,658],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"10.0",[48,58,59],{},"13.8",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(11.7)",[48,72,73],{},"32.0",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"30.9",[48,86,87],{},"(19.9)",[27,89,90,93,96,98],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,81],{},[48,99,100],{},"8.0",[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"(8.4)",[48,113,114],{},"24.6",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"3.9",[48,127,128],{},"8.1",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"14.6",[48,141,142],{},"1.8",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"18.9",[48,155,156],{},"2.8",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(14.8)",[48,169,170],{},"19.5",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(26.4)",[48,183,184],{},"31.9",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"37.2",[48,197,198],{},"(15.3)",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"23.6",[48,211,212],{},"35.7",[27,214,215,218,220,223],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,184],{},[48,221,222],{},"(7.4)",[48,224,225],{},"39.3",[27,227,228,231,234,237],{},[48,229,230],{},"1978",[48,232,233],{},"24.0",[48,235,236],{},"6.4",[48,238,239],{},"17.6",[27,241,242,245,247,250],{},[48,243,244],{},"1979",[48,246,212],{},[48,248,249],{},"18.2",[48,251,252],{},"17.5",[27,254,255,258,261,264],{},[48,256,257],{},"1980",[48,259,260],{},"19.3",[48,262,263],{},"32.3",[48,265,266],{},"(13.0)",[27,268,269,272,275,278],{},[48,270,271],{},"1981",[48,273,274],{},"31.4",[48,276,277],{},"(5.0)",[48,279,280],{},"36.4",[27,282,283,286,289,292],{},[48,284,285],{},"1982",[48,287,288],{},"40.0",[48,290,291],{},"21.4",[48,293,294],{},"18.6",[27,296,297,300,302,305],{},[48,298,299],{},"1983",[48,301,263],{},[48,303,304],{},"22.4",[48,306,307],{},"9.9",[27,309,310,313,316,319],{},[48,311,312],{},"1984",[48,314,315],{},"13.6",[48,317,318],{},"6.1",[48,320,321],{},"7.5",[27,323,324,327,330,333],{},[48,325,326],{},"1985",[48,328,329],{},"48.2",[48,331,332],{},"31.6",[48,334,335],{},"16.6",[27,337,338,341,344,346],{},[48,339,340],{},"1986",[48,342,343],{},"26.1",[48,345,294],{},[48,347,321],{},[27,349,350,353,355,358],{},[48,351,352],{},"1987",[48,354,170],{},[48,356,357],{},"5.1",[48,359,360],{},"14.4",[27,362,363,366,369,371],{},[48,364,365],{},"1988",[48,367,368],{},"20.1",[48,370,335],{},[48,372,373],{},"3.5",[27,375,376,379,382,385],{},[48,377,378],{},"1989",[48,380,381],{},"44.4",[48,383,384],{},"31.7",[48,386,387],{},"12.7",[27,389,390,393,396,399],{},[48,391,392],{},"1990",[48,394,395],{},"7.4",[48,397,398],{},"(3.1)",[48,400,401],{},"10.5",[27,403,404,407,410,413],{},[48,405,406],{},"1991",[48,408,409],{},"39.6",[48,411,412],{},"30.5",[48,414,415],{},"9.1",[27,417,418,421,423,426],{},[48,419,420],{},"1992",[48,422,67],{},[48,424,425],{},"7.6",[48,427,387],{},[27,429,430,433,436,439],{},[48,431,432],{},"1993",[48,434,435],{},"14.3",[48,437,438],{},"10.1",[48,440,441],{},"4.2",[27,443,444,447,450,453],{},[48,445,446],{},"1994",[48,448,449],{},"13.9",[48,451,452],{},"1.3",[48,454,455],{},"12.6",[27,457,458,461,464,467],{},[48,459,460],{},"1995",[48,462,463],{},"43.1",[48,465,466],{},"37.6",[48,468,178],{},[27,470,471,474,477,480],{},[48,472,473],{},"1996",[48,475,476],{},"31.8",[48,478,479],{},"23.0",[48,481,482],{},"8.8",[27,484,485,488,491,494],{},[48,486,487],{},"1997",[48,489,490],{},"34.1",[48,492,493],{},"33.4",[48,495,496],{},".7",[27,498,499,502,505,508],{},[48,500,501],{},"1998",[48,503,504],{},"48.3",[48,506,507],{},"28.6",[48,509,510],{},"19.7",[27,512,513,516,519,522],{},[48,514,515],{},"1999",[48,517,518],{},".5",[48,520,521],{},"21.0",[48,523,524],{},"(20.5)",[27,526,527,530,533,536],{},[48,528,529],{},"2000",[48,531,532],{},"6.5",[48,534,535],{},"(9.1)",[48,537,538],{},"15.6",[27,540,541,544,547,550],{},[48,542,543],{},"2001",[48,545,546],{},"(6.2)",[48,548,549],{},"(11.9)",[48,551,552],{},"5.7",[27,554,555,558,560,563],{},[48,556,557],{},"2002",[48,559,56],{},[48,561,562],{},"(22.1)",[48,564,565],{},"32.1",[27,567,568,571,573,576],{},[48,569,570],{},"2003",[48,572,521],{},[48,574,575],{},"28.7",[48,577,578],{},"(7.7)",[27,580,581,584,586,589],{},[48,582,583],{},"2004",[48,585,401],{},[48,587,588],{},"10.9",[48,590,591],{},"(.4)",[27,593,594,597,599,602],{},[48,595,596],{},"2005",[48,598,236],{},[48,600,601],{},"4.9",[48,603,604],{},"1.5",[27,606,607,610,613,616],{},[48,608,609],{},"2006",[48,611,612],{},"18.4",[48,614,615],{},"15.8",[48,617,618],{},"2.6",[27,620,621,624,626,628],{},[48,622,623],{},"2007",[48,625,81],{},[48,627,178],{},[48,629,178],{},[27,631,632,635,638,641],{},[48,633,634],{},"2008",[48,636,637],{},"(9.6)",[48,639,640],{},"(37.0)",[48,642,643],{},"27.4",[27,645,646,649,652,655],{},[48,647,648],{},"年复合增长率 -- 1965-2008",[48,650,651],{},"20.3%",[48,653,654],{},"8.9%",[48,656,657],{},"11.4",[27,659,660,663,666,669],{},[48,661,662],{},"累计总收益 -- 1964-2008",[48,664,665],{},"362,319%",[48,667,668],{},"4,276%",[48,670],{},[14,672,673,676],{},[17,674,675],{},"注释："," 数据为日历年度数据，以下例外：1965年和1966年为截至9月30日的年度；1967年为截至12月31日的15个月。",[14,678,679],{},"自1979年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市价而非此前的成本与市价孰低法计量权益类证券。本表中，伯克希尔1978年及以前的数据已按新规则进行了追溯调整。其他方面的数据均采用当初的原始报告数字。",[14,681,682,683,686,687,690],{},"标普500指数的数字为",[17,684,685],{},"税前","数据，而伯克希尔的数字为",[17,688,689],{},"税后","数据。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司仅仅持有标普500指数并计提相应税金，在指数上涨的年份其表现将落后于标普500，而在指数下跌的年份则会优于标普500。长期来看，税收成本会使累计差距相当显著。",[10,692,694],{"id":693},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,696,697],{},[17,698,699],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 (Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) 所有股东：",[14,701,702,703,707,708],{},"2008年，公司净资产",[704,705,706],"em",{},"减少","了115亿美元，A股和B股的每股账面价值下降了9.6%。自现任管理层接手的44年以来，每股账面价值由当初的19美元增长到目前的70,530美元，年复合增长率约为20.3%。",[709,710,711],"sup",{},[712,713,719],"a",{"href":714,"ariaDescribedBy":715,"dataFootnoteRef":717,"id":718},"#user-content-fn-*",[716],"footnote-label","","user-content-fnref-*","1",[14,721,722],{},"上表记录了伯克希尔账面价值和标普500指数过去44年的表现，可以看到2008年对两者都是表现最差的年份。这一时期对于企业债券和市政债券、房地产和大宗商品来说同样是灾难性的。截至年底，各种类型的投资者晕头转向且伤痕累累，仿佛一群误入羽毛球赛场的小鸟。",[14,724,725],{},"这一年中，世界上许多大型金融机构的致命问题接连暴露。这使得原本功能紊乱的信贷市场在许多关键领域彻底停摆。我年幼时在一家餐馆墙壁上看到的标语，成为当下全国上下的座右铭：\"我们只相信上帝，其余人请付现金。\"",[14,727,728],{},"到了第四季度，信贷危机加上房价和股市的暴跌，制造出一种令人瘫痪的恐惧，席卷了整个国家。随之而来的是商业活动的自由落体，而且加速之快，我前所未见。美国——以及世界大部分地区——都陷入了恶性的负反馈循环。恐惧导致商业萎缩，商业萎缩又引发了更大的恐惧。",[14,730,731],{},"这种令人窒息的螺旋式下坠迫使政府采取大规模行动。用扑克牌局的术语说，财政部和美联储已经全押 ALL IN。此前经济药方都是论杯开的，最近则是论桶灌。这些曾经不可想象的剂量几乎必然带来不良的后遗症。其确切后果谁也说不准，不过一个很可能的后果就是通货膨胀来势汹汹。此外，多个主要行业已经依赖上了联邦援助，紧随其后的是各市各州提出的各种天文数字般的请求。让这些机构从公共财政的乳头上断奶，将会是一场政治角力。他们才不会自愿松嘴。",[14,733,734],{},"不管负面后果有多大，去年政府采取强有力的紧急行动是完全必要的，否则金融系统将面临全面崩溃。一旦发生，经济的各个领域都将遭受灾难性的后果。不管你喜不喜欢，华尔街、主街和美国各条街上的居民，现在都在同一条船上。",[14,736,737],{},"尽管坏消息不断，但千万不要忘记，我们的国家过去曾经面对过比这更严峻的考验。仅在20世纪，我们就经历了两场大战（其中有一次我们一度看起来要输掉了）；十多次恐慌和衰退；1980年恶性通货膨胀导致基准利率飙升至21.5%；以及1930年代的大萧条——失业率在15%到25%之间徘徊了好多年。美国可从来不缺挑战。",[14,739,740,741,744],{},"然而，我们每一次都成功地挺了过来。面对这些障碍——以及其他许多障碍——美国人的实际生活水准在20世纪提高了将近",[704,742,743],{},"七","倍，道琼斯工业指数从66点上升到11,497点。把这段记录与之前数十个世纪中人类生活的微小改善——如果有的话——做个比较，差距惊人。尽管前进之路并不平坦，但长远来看，我们的经济体系运转得异常出色。没有其他体系能像它那样释放出人类的潜能，而且它还将继续如此。美国最好的日子还在前头。",[14,746,747],{},"再看看第二页那张44年的表格。在75%的年份里，标普500指数都录得正收益。我猜测，未来44年中大约也会有类似比例的好年景。但无论是我管理伯克希尔的合伙人查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger)，还是我，都无法提前预知哪些年份赚钱、哪些年份亏钱。（以我们一贯固执己见的看法，我们也不认为其他任何人能做到。）比如，我们可以确定2009年全年的经济状况会很惨淡——而且很可能会持续相当长时间——但这个结论并不能告诉我们股市是涨还是跌。",[14,749,750],{},"无论年景好坏，查理和我都简单地专注于以下四个目标：",[14,752,753],{},"(1) 保持伯克希尔直布罗陀般坚固的财务状况，这意味着充裕的流动性、适度的短期债务，以及数十个收入和现金来源；",[14,755,756],{},"(2) 拓宽保护我们经营业务的\"护城河\"，使其拥有持久的竞争优势；",[14,758,759],{},"(3) 收购和拓展新的、多元化的利润来源；",[14,761,762],{},"(4) 扩大和培养优秀的管理团队——多年来，正是他们为伯克希尔创造了非凡的业绩。",[10,764,765],{"id":765},"伯克希尔的2008年",[14,767,768],{},"伯克希尔旗下大多数受经济环境显著影响的业务，去年的盈利都低于其潜在水平，2009年也会如此。我们的零售业务受到的打击尤其严重，与住宅建设相关的业务也不例外。不过，总体而言，我们的制造业、服务业和零售业赚取了可观的利润，其中大多数——尤其是规模较大的业务——继续巩固着各自的竞争地位。更值得庆幸的是，伯克希尔最重要的两大业务——保险集团和公用事业集团——其盈利与整体经济的相关性不大。这两项业务在2008年都取得了出色的业绩，前景同样非常光明。",[14,770,771,772,775],{},"正如去年报告中预测的那样，我们保险业务在2007年取得的出色承保利润，2008年没有重现。不过，保险集团还是连续第六年实现了承保盈利。这意味着我们585亿美元的保险\"浮存金\"——这些钱不属于我们，但由我们持有并为自己的利益进行投资——其成本低于零。事实上，2008年持有这笔浮存金反而",[704,773,774],{},"给","我们带来了28亿美元的收入。查理和我觉得这买卖可真划算。",[14,777,778],{},"长期以来，大多数保险公司都经历着严重的承保损失，这使得他们的经济状况与我们截然不同。当然，某些年份我们也会遭遇承保损失。但我们拥有保险行业最优秀的管理团队，而且在大多数情况下，他们管理着根基深厚、价值非凡的特许经营权。凭借这些优势，我相信我们长期而言将持续实现承保盈利，我们的浮存金因此不会产生任何成本。保险业务是伯克希尔的核心，是我们经济上的发动机。",[14,780,781],{},"查理和我对公用事业业务同样兴致勃勃。该业务去年创出了盈利新高，而且蓄势待发。管理这一业务的戴夫·索科尔 (Dave Sokol) 和格雷格·阿贝尔 (Greg Abel) 取得了公用事业行业中无人能及的成绩。每当他们提出新的项目，我都会欢呼雀跃，因为在这个资本密集型行业中，新项目的投资规模往往很大。这类项目让伯克希尔有机会将大笔资金投入到回报率不错的地方。",[14,783,784],{},"去年我们在资本配置上也做得不错。伯克希尔始终是企业和证券的买家，市场的混乱给我们的购买送来了顺风。投资的时候，悲观是你的朋友，狂热是你的敌人。",[14,786,787],{},"在保险投资组合中，我们完成了三项在正常市场环境下不可能实现的重大投资。这些投资预计每年将为伯克希尔增加约15亿美元的税前收益，并且还有获取资本利得的可能。我们也完成了对马蒙集团 (Marmon) 的收购（目前拥有64%的股权，并将在未来6年内购买剩余股份）。此外，我们的一些子公司进行了补强收购，以加强其竞争地位和盈利能力。",[14,789,790],{},"好消息到此为止。还有一些不太让人愉快的事实：2008年我做了一些愚蠢的投资。我至少犯了一个严重的主动性错误，还有好几个较小的错误也造成了损失。稍后我会详细说明。此外，我还犯了一些不作为的错误——当新情况出现时，我本应重新审视自己的判断并迅速采取行动，结果却只知道吮着大拇指发呆。",[14,792,793],{},"另外，我们继续持有的债券和股票的市值随大盘一起大幅下跌。这并不让查理和我感到烦恼。事实上，当我们手头有资金可以增加仓位时，我们反而很享受这样的价格下跌。很久以前，本杰明·格雷厄姆 (Ben Graham) 教给我一句话：\"价格是你所支付的，价值是你所得到的。\"不管我们谈论的是袜子还是股票，我总是喜欢在打折的时候买好货。",[10,795,796],{"id":796},"业绩衡量",[14,798,799],{},"伯克希尔的价值主要来自两个领域。第一个是投资：股票、债券和现金等价物。年底时这部分资产的总价值为1,220亿美元（不包括我们金融业务和公用事业业务所持有的投资，这些被划入第二个价值领域）。其中约585亿美元的资金来源于浮存金。",[14,801,802],{},"伯克希尔的第二个价值领域是投资和保险业务之外的利润来源。这部分收益来自我们旗下67家非保险公司。我们之所以将保险业务的盈利排除在外，是因为保险业务的价值体现在它产生的可投资资金上，而这一因素已经计入了第一个领域。",[14,804,805],{},"2008年，我们的投资（扣除少数股东权益后）从伯克希尔每股90,343美元下降到77,793美元，这一下降是由市场价格的下跌造成的，而非净卖出股票或债券所致。第二个价值领域的每股税前收益（同样扣除少数股东权益后）从4,093美元下降到3,921美元。",[14,807,808],{},"两个领域的表现都不令人满意。要让伯克希尔的内在价值以可接受的速度增长，我们需要在这两个领域都取得不错的进展。不过，我们今后的重心将放在盈利这一领域上，正如过去几十年来我们一直所做的那样。我们喜欢买入价格低于价值的证券，但更喜欢以合理价格收购经营良好的企业。",[14,810,811],{},"现在让我们来看看伯克希尔的四大运营板块。每个板块的资产负债表和收入特征都截然不同。因此，像标准财务报表那样把它们混在一起，只会妨碍分析。所以我们把它们当作四项独立的业务来呈现——查理和我看待它们的方式就是如此。",[10,813,814],{"id":814},"受监管的公用事业业务",[14,816,817],{},"伯克希尔持有中美能源控股公司 (MidAmerican Energy Holdings) 87.4%的股权（完全摊薄后），该公司旗下经营着多种公用事业业务。其中最大的几项包括：(1) 约克郡电力与北方电力公司 (Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric)，拥有380万终端用户，是英国第三大电力配送商；(2) 中美能源 (MidAmerican Energy)，主要在爱荷华州服务72.3万电力用户；(3) 太平洋电力和洛基山电力公司 (Pacific Power and Rocky Mountain Power)，在美国西部6个州服务约170万电力用户；(4) 科恩河和北方天然管道公司 (Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines)，输送量约占全美天然气消费量的9%。",[14,819,820],{},"我们在中美能源的合伙人包括两位出色的管理者戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔，以及我的老朋友沃尔特·斯科特 (Walter Scott)。每个人有多少投票权并不重要；我们只有在一致认为某项举措明智时才会付诸行动。与戴夫、格雷格和沃尔特共事9年的经历不断印证着我最初的判断：伯克希尔找不到比他们更好的合伙人了。",[14,822,823],{},"有些不太搭界的是，中美能源还拥有全美第二大房地产经纪公司——美国家庭服务公司 (HomeServices of America)。该公司通过21个本地品牌运营，拥有16,000名经纪人。去年是房屋销售的惨淡之年，2009年看起来也好不到哪儿去。不过，当优质经纪公司以合理价格出售时，我们仍会继续收购。",[14,825,826],{},"中美能源公司关键运营数据：",[21,828,829,841],{},[24,830,831],{},[27,832,833,835,838],{},[30,834],{},[30,836,837],{},"2008年收益（百万美元）",[30,839,840],{},"2007年收益（百万美元）",[43,842,843,854,865,876,887,898,909,920,931,942,953,964,975,986,997],{},[27,844,845,848,851],{},[48,846,847],{},"英国电力",[48,849,850],{},"$ 339",[48,852,853],{},"$ 337",[27,855,856,859,862],{},[48,857,858],{},"爱荷华电力",[48,860,861],{},"425",[48,863,864],{},"412",[27,866,867,870,873],{},[48,868,869],{},"西部电力",[48,871,872],{},"703",[48,874,875],{},"692",[27,877,878,881,884],{},[48,879,880],{},"管道运输业务",[48,882,883],{},"595",[48,885,886],{},"473",[27,888,889,892,895],{},[48,890,891],{},"家庭服务",[48,893,894],{},"(45)",[48,896,897],{},"42",[27,899,900,903,906],{},[48,901,902],{},"其他（净值）",[48,904,905],{},"186",[48,907,908],{},"130",[27,910,911,914,917],{},[48,912,913],{},"息税前经营收益",[48,915,916],{},"2,203",[48,918,919],{},"2,086",[27,921,922,925,928],{},[48,923,924],{},"星座能源投资收益*",[48,926,927],{},"1,092",[48,929,930],{},"--",[27,932,933,936,939],{},[48,934,935],{},"利息支出——其他企业债务",[48,937,938],{},"(332)",[48,940,941],{},"(312)",[27,943,944,947,950],{},[48,945,946],{},"利息支出——伯克希尔次级债券",[48,948,949],{},"(111)",[48,951,952],{},"(108)",[27,954,955,958,961],{},[48,956,957],{},"所得税",[48,959,960],{},"(1,002)",[48,962,963],{},"(477)",[27,965,966,969,972],{},[48,967,968],{},"净收益",[48,970,971],{},"$ 1,850",[48,973,974],{},"$ 1,189",[27,976,977,980,983],{},[48,978,979],{},"归属于伯克希尔的净收益**",[48,981,982],{},"$ 1,704",[48,984,985],{},"$ 1,114",[27,987,988,991,994],{},[48,989,990],{},"应付其他企业债务",[48,992,993],{},"19,145",[48,995,996],{},"19,002",[27,998,999,1002,1005],{},[48,1000,1001],{},"应付伯克希尔债务",[48,1003,1004],{},"1,087",[48,1006,1007],{},"821",[14,1009,1010],{},"* 包括1.75亿美元分手费和9.17亿美元投资利润。",[14,1012,1013],{},"** 包括伯克希尔赚取的利息收入（扣除相关所得税后），2008年为7,200万美元，2007年为7,000万美元。",[14,1015,1016],{},"中美能源在经营受监管的电力事业和天然气管道方面的记录确实非常出色。下面是一些有力的佐证。",[14,1018,1019],{},"科恩河和北方天然两条管道都是在2002年收购的。一家名为Mastio的公司定期对管道公司进行客户满意度排名。在受评的44家公司中，科恩河在我们收购时排名第9，北方天然排名第39。我们还有很多工作要做。",[14,1021,1022],{},"在Mastio 2009年的报告中，科恩河升至第1名，北方天然升至第3名。查理和我对这样的成绩感到无比自豪。这一切的实现，要归功于两家管道公司数百名员工全心全意地投入到一种全新的企业文化中，并切切实实地兑现了他们的承诺。",[14,1024,1025],{},"我们在电力事业上的成就同样令人瞩目。1995年，中美能源成为爱荷华州的主要电力供应商。通过审慎的规划和对效率的不懈追求，自我们收购以来，该公司一直保持电价不变，而且承诺将维持价格稳定到2013年。",[14,1027,1028],{},"中美能源在保持这种超常的价格稳定的同时，还让爱荷华州在风力发电容量占比方面跃居全美各州之首。自收购以来，中美能源的风电设施从零发展到了占总装机容量近20%。",[14,1030,1031],{},"同样地，2006年我们收购太平洋电力公司 (PacifiCorp) 之后，便积极扩张风力发电。当时风电装机容量仅为33兆瓦，现在已达794兆瓦，而且还在增长。（进入太平洋电力后，我们发现了另一种\"风\"气：该公司以前有98个经常开会的委员会。现在只剩28个。与此同时，我们的发电量和输电量都大幅增加，员工却减少了2%。）",[14,1033,1034],{},"仅2008年一年，中美能源就在旗下两家运营公司投入了18亿美元用于风力发电，如今在受监管公用事业中，我们的风电装机容量全美第一。顺便做个比较：太平洋电力（表中列为\"西部电力\"）和爱荷华电力的税前收益合计为11亿美元，而我们在风电上的投入就达18亿美元。在公用事业领域，我们把赚到的每一分钱都投入进去，甚至还不够，只为满足服务区域的需求。事实上，自2000年初伯克希尔入股以来，中美能源从未支付过一分钱股息。所有利润都被再投资，用于建设我们客户所需要也应当享有的公用事业系统。作为回报，我们被允许在巨额投入上获取合理的回报。这对所有相关方来说都是一次伟大的合作。",[14,1036,1037],{},"克莱顿的贷款业务虽然没有因借款人的表现而受损，但仍然受到信贷危机某个因素的威胁。那些能获得某种形式政府担保的资金方——拥有联邦存款保险公司 (FDIC) 保险存款的银行、拥有目前由美联储支持的商业票据的大型机构，以及其他通过富有想象力的方法（或游说技巧）挤入政府保护伞下的人——其资金成本微乎其微。相反，像伯克希尔这样信用评级极高的公司，其借贷成本与国债利率之比已达到历史最高水平。而且，政府担保的借款人资金充裕，而其他人则往往资金匮乏，无论其信用多么优良。",[14,1039,1040],{},"这种史无前例的资金成本\"利差\"，使得任何不享有政府担保资金的贷款人根本无法与那些享有特权地位的竞争者抗衡。政府在决定谁是\"富人\"、谁是\"穷人\"。这就是为什么各家公司争先恐后地转型为银行控股公司——而这条路对伯克希尔来说并不可行。",[14,1042,1043,1044,1047],{},"尽管伯克希尔的信用堪称完美无瑕——我们是全美仅有的七家AAA级公司之一——但我们目前的借贷成本却",[704,1045,1046],{},"远高于","那些资产负债表摇摇欲坠、但有政府撑腰的竞争者。在当下这个时刻，做一个有政府担保的财务残废，远好过做一个没有政府担保的直布罗陀。",[14,1049,1050],{},"目前的极端状况应该很快就会结束。在最坏的情况下，我们相信至少能找到部分解决方案，使克莱顿的贷款业务得以继续运营。但如果我们被迫长期与政府扶持的贷款机构竞争，克莱顿的收益肯定会受到影响。",[21,1052,1053,1066],{},[24,1054,1055],{},[27,1056,1057,1060,1063],{},[30,1058,1059],{},"（百万美元）",[30,1061,1062],{},"2008年税前收益",[30,1064,1065],{},"2007年税前收益",[43,1067,1068,1079,1090,1101,1112,1123],{},[27,1069,1070,1073,1076],{},[48,1071,1072],{},"投资净收益",[48,1074,1075],{},"$ 330",[48,1077,1078],{},"$ 272",[27,1080,1081,1084,1087],{},[48,1082,1083],{},"人寿年金业务",[48,1085,1086],{},"23",[48,1088,1089],{},"(60)",[27,1091,1092,1095,1098],{},[48,1093,1094],{},"租赁业务",[48,1096,1097],{},"87",[48,1099,1100],{},"111",[27,1102,1103,1106,1109],{},[48,1104,1105],{},"克莱顿住宅金融",[48,1107,1108],{},"206",[48,1110,1111],{},"526",[27,1113,1114,1117,1120],{},[48,1115,1116],{},"其他*",[48,1118,1119],{},"141",[48,1121,1122],{},"157",[27,1124,1125,1128,1131],{},[48,1126,1127],{},"投资和衍生品损益前收入",[48,1129,1130],{},"$ 787",[48,1132,1133],{},"$ 1,006",[14,1135,1136],{},"* 其中包括伯克希尔向克莱顿收取的使用伯克希尔信用额度的费用，2008年为9,200万美元，2007年为8,500万美元。",[10,1138,1139],{"id":1139},"免税债券保险",[14,1141,1142],{},"2008年初，我们设立了伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险公司（BHAC），专门承保由各州、城市和其他地方实体发行的免税债券。BHAC在债券首次向公众发售（一级交易）和债券已由投资者持有之后（二级交易）两种情形下，都为发行人提供保险。",[14,1144,1145],{},"到2007年底，这个领域中大约六家主要公司全都陷入了大麻烦。关于它们出问题的原因，好莱坞影星梅·韦斯特 (Mae West) 很久以前就精辟地概括过了：\"我本来是白雪公主，但我渐渐跑偏了。\"",[14,1147,1148],{},"单一险种保险公司（债券保险公司的别称）最初只承保低风险的免税债券。但随着年头渐长，这块业务的竞争日益激烈，费率不断走低。面对收益停滞或下滑的前景，单一险种的管理者们开始转向风险越来越高的项目。其中一些涉及住宅抵押贷款的承保。当房价暴跌时，整个单一险种行业迅速变得病入膏肓。",[14,1150,1151],{},"年初，伯克希尔提出承接三家最大的单一险种保险公司账上所有免税债券保险。这些公司当时都已命悬一线（尽管它们嘴上不承认）。我们将以1.5%的费率接管约8,220亿美元债券的担保。如果我们的报价被接受，我们将承担持有这些债券的投资者的所有损失——在某些情况下，这一担保长达40年。我们的提议绝非儿戏：出于后文将要详述的原因，这对伯克希尔意味着重大风险。",[14,1153,1154,1155,1158],{},"那几家单一险种保险公司断然拒绝了我们的报价，其中有的还捎带一两句侮辱。然而，他们的拒绝最终证明对我们来说是",[704,1156,1157],{},"很好","的消息，因为事实越来越清楚地表明，我当初严重低估了我们报价的价值。",[14,1160,1161,1162,1165,1166,1169],{},"此后，我们在二级市场承保了约156亿美元的保险。重点来了：其中约77%的业务所涉及的债券",[704,1163,1164],{},"已经","投过保，主要就是由前面提到的三家单一险种公司承保的。在这些协议中，我们",[704,1167,1168],{},"只有","在原始承保人财务上无力赔付时才需要付款。",[14,1171,1172,1173,1176],{},"我们承保这些\"第二顺位支付\"保险的平均费率为3.3%。没错——我们作为第二支付者收到的费率，远远高于我们之前作为第一支付者愿意收取的1.5%。在一个极端案例中，我们实际上同意成为",[704,1174,1175],{},"第四","支付者，却收取了第一支付者所收1%保费的大约三倍。换句话说，前面三家单一险种保险公司都得先破产，我们才需要掏出第一张支票。",[14,1178,1179,1180,1183],{},"最初我们提出批量报价的三家单一险种保险公司中，有两家后来筹集了大量资本。这当然直接",[704,1181,1182],{},"有利于","我们，因为这降低了这两家公司倒闭从而触发我们作为第二支付者进行赔付的可能性，至少短期内如此。除二级业务外，我们还承保了37亿美元的一级业务，保费为9,600万美元。在一级业务中，如果发行人出了问题，我们当然是第一支付者。",[14,1185,1186,1187,1190],{},"在我们承保的保险背后，我们拥有的资本倍数比任何一家单一险种保险公司都多得多。因此，我们的担保比它们的担保有价值得多。这解释了为什么许多老练的投资者即使已经买了另一家单一险种公司的保险，仍然从我们这里购买第二顺位支付保险。BHAC不仅成为了首选承保人，而且在很多情况下成为债券持有人",[704,1188,1189],{},"唯一","能接受的承保人。",[14,1192,1193],{},"尽管如此，我们对承保的业务仍然非常谨慎，并且认为这项保险最终能否为我们盈利远非板上钉钉的事。原因很简单，尽管我从未见过任何一位金融分析师、评级机构或单一险种保险公司CEO哪怕顺嘴提过一句。",[14,1195,1196,1197,1200],{},"为免税债券收取极低保费的逻辑依据是：历史上违约极少。但这个记录主要反映的是发行",[704,1198,1199],{},"未投保","债券的那些机构的经验。免税债券保险在1971年之前根本不存在，即使之后大多数债券仍然没有投保。",[14,1202,1203,1204,1207],{},"一个全部被保险覆盖的免税债券市场，其损失经验必然与一组未投保但其他方面类似的债券有所不同——唯一的问题是",[704,1205,1206],{},"差多少","。要理解原因，让我们回到1975年纽约市濒临破产的那段历史。当时纽约市的债券——几乎全部没有保险——大量由该市的富裕居民以及纽约的银行和其他机构持有。这些本地债券持有人迫切希望解决城市的财政问题。于是不久之后，来自各方利益相关者的让步与合作催生了一个解决方案。如果没有这个方案，所有人都很清楚，纽约市民和企业将因持有这些债券而遭受广泛而严重的经济损失。",[14,1209,1210],{},"现在，想象一下如果纽约市的所有债券都由伯克希尔承保。类似的勒紧裤腰带、增税、工会让步等等措施还会出台吗？当然不会。至少，伯克希尔会被要求\"分担\"必要的牺牲。而考虑到我们雄厚的财力，被要求的贡献金额一定相当可观。",[14,1212,1213,1214,1217],{},"未来，地方政府面临的财政问题将比目前",[704,1215,1216],{},"严峻得多","。我在去年报告中谈到的养老金负债将是这些困境的主要推手。许多城市和州在查看其2008年末的资金状况时，一定吓出了一身冷汗。资产与用精算方法合理估算的当前负债之间的缺口，简直令人瞠目。",[14,1219,1220],{},"当面临巨额收入缺口时，所有债券都有保险覆盖的地方政府，比那些债券由本地银行和居民持有但没有投保的地方政府，更容易想出对债券持有人不利的\"解决方案\"。而且，免税债券领域的损失一旦出现，很可能在各发行人之间高度相关。如果少数几个地方赖了债务并且安然无恙，其他人效仿的可能性就会大增。换你是市长或市议会，你会怎么选？是通过大幅加税让当地市民承受痛苦，还是把痛苦丢给远在天边的债券保险公司？",[14,1222,1223],{},"因此，承保免税债券在今天看来是一项危险的生意——事实上与承保自然灾害有相似之处。在这两种情况下，多年无损失的好光景过后，可能紧接着就是一次毁灭性的打击，足以抵消此前全部利润还有余。因此，我们会在这项业务中格外谨慎，许多其他单一险种保险公司习以为常的债券类别，我们都会避开。",[14,1225,1226],{},"关于BHAC的最后一点附言：你也许想知道，谁在运营这家公司？虽然我帮忙制定政策，但所有繁重的工作都是阿吉特和他的团队完成的。没错，他们已经管理着240亿美元的浮存金，每年还创造数亿美元的承保利润。但这些活能让一个31人的团队忙多大会儿呢？查理和我觉得该让他们开始做满全天的工了。",[10,1228,1229],{"id":1229},"投资业务",[14,1231,1232],{},"由于会计规则的原因，今年我们把持有的大量普通股分成了两类。下表列出了第一类，详细列出了在我们资产负债表中按市值计量、且年末市值超过5亿美元的投资。",[14,1234,1235],{},[17,1236,1237],{},"2008年12月31日",[21,1239,1240,1259],{},[24,1241,1242],{},[27,1243,1244,1247,1250,1253,1256],{},[30,1245,1246],{},"股份数量",[30,1248,1249],{},"公司名称",[30,1251,1252],{},"持股比例",[30,1254,1255],{},"成本*（百万美元）",[30,1257,1258],{},"市值（百万美元）",[43,1260,1261,1278,1295,1311,1328,1345,1362,1379,1396,1413,1430,1447,1464,1480,1497,1512],{},[27,1262,1263,1266,1269,1272,1275],{},[48,1264,1265],{},"151,610,700",[48,1267,1268],{},"美国运通 (American Express)",[48,1270,1271],{},"13.1",[48,1273,1274],{},"$ 1,287",[48,1276,1277],{},"$ 2,812",[27,1279,1280,1283,1286,1289,1292],{},[48,1281,1282],{},"200,000,000",[48,1284,1285],{},"可口可乐 (The Coca-Cola Company)",[48,1287,1288],{},"8.6",[48,1290,1291],{},"1,299",[48,1293,1294],{},"9,054",[27,1296,1297,1300,1303,1305,1308],{},[48,1298,1299],{},"84,896,273",[48,1301,1302],{},"康菲石油 (ConocoPhillips)",[48,1304,552],{},[48,1306,1307],{},"7,008",[48,1309,1310],{},"4,398",[27,1312,1313,1316,1319,1322,1325],{},[48,1314,1315],{},"30,009,591",[48,1317,1318],{},"强生 (Johnson & Johnson)",[48,1320,1321],{},"1.1",[48,1323,1324],{},"1,847",[48,1326,1327],{},"1,795",[27,1329,1330,1333,1336,1339,1342],{},[48,1331,1332],{},"130,272,500",[48,1334,1335],{},"卡夫食品 (Kraft Foods Inc.)",[48,1337,1338],{},"8.9",[48,1340,1341],{},"4,330",[48,1343,1344],{},"3,498",[27,1346,1347,1350,1353,1356,1359],{},[48,1348,1349],{},"3,947,554",[48,1351,1352],{},"浦项钢铁 (POSCO)",[48,1354,1355],{},"5.2",[48,1357,1358],{},"768",[48,1360,1361],{},"1,191",[27,1363,1364,1367,1370,1373,1376],{},[48,1365,1366],{},"91,941,010",[48,1368,1369],{},"宝洁 (The Procter & Gamble Company)",[48,1371,1372],{},"3.1",[48,1374,1375],{},"643",[48,1377,1378],{},"5,684",[27,1380,1381,1384,1387,1390,1393],{},[48,1382,1383],{},"22,111,966",[48,1385,1386],{},"赛诺菲-安万特 (Sanofi-Aventis)",[48,1388,1389],{},"1.7",[48,1391,1392],{},"1,827",[48,1394,1395],{},"1,404",[27,1397,1398,1401,1404,1407,1410],{},[48,1399,1400],{},"11,262,000",[48,1402,1403],{},"瑞士再保险 (Swiss Re)",[48,1405,1406],{},"3.2",[48,1408,1409],{},"773",[48,1411,1412],{},"530",[27,1414,1415,1418,1421,1424,1427],{},[48,1416,1417],{},"227,307,000",[48,1419,1420],{},"乐购 (Tesco plc)",[48,1422,1423],{},"2.9",[48,1425,1426],{},"1,326",[48,1428,1429],{},"1,193",[27,1431,1432,1435,1438,1441,1444],{},[48,1433,1434],{},"75,145,426",[48,1436,1437],{},"美国合众银行 (U.S. Bancorp)",[48,1439,1440],{},"4.3",[48,1442,1443],{},"2,337",[48,1445,1446],{},"1,879",[27,1448,1449,1452,1455,1458,1461],{},[48,1450,1451],{},"19,944,300",[48,1453,1454],{},"沃尔玛 (Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.)",[48,1456,1457],{},"0.5",[48,1459,1460],{},"942",[48,1462,1463],{},"1,118",[27,1465,1466,1469,1472,1474,1477],{},[48,1467,1468],{},"1,727,765",[48,1470,1471],{},"华盛顿邮报 (The Washington Post Company)",[48,1473,612],{},[48,1475,1476],{},"11",[48,1478,1479],{},"674",[27,1481,1482,1485,1488,1491,1494],{},[48,1483,1484],{},"304,392,068",[48,1486,1487],{},"富国银行 (Wells Fargo & Company)",[48,1489,1490],{},"7.2",[48,1492,1493],{},"6,702",[48,1495,1496],{},"8,973",[27,1498,1499,1501,1504,1506,1509],{},[48,1500],{},[48,1502,1503],{},"其他",[48,1505],{},[48,1507,1508],{},"6,035",[48,1510,1511],{},"4,870",[27,1513,1514,1516,1519,1521,1524],{},[48,1515],{},[48,1517,1518],{},"按市值计量的普通股合计",[48,1520],{},[48,1522,1523],{},"$ 37,135",[48,1525,1526],{},"$ 49,073",[14,1528,1529],{},"* 这是我们的实际购买价格，也是我们的计税基础；在少数情况下，由于需要进行增值或减值调整，通用会计准则 (GAAP) 认定的\"成本\"与此有所不同。",[14,1531,1532],{},"此外，我们还持有穆迪 (Moody's) 和伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路 (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) 的股份，目前按\"权益法\"核算——即我们的成本加上自购买以来的留存收益份额，减去如果这些收益作为股息支付时应缴纳的税款。当持有被投资公司的所有权达到20%时，通常需要采用这种会计处理方式。",[14,1534,1535],{},"我们几年前买入了穆迪15%的股份，此后再没买过一股。不过穆迪一直在回购自己的股票，到2008年底，其流通股数量已减少到使我们的持股比例超过了20%。伯灵顿北方铁路也回购了股票，但我们持股比例升至20%主要是因为我们在持续买入这只股票。",[14,1537,1538],{},"除非事实或规则发生变化，你将看到这些持仓以\"权益法\"的价值体现在我们的资产负债表中，无论其市场价格如何。你也将看到我们应占的收益份额（扣除相关税款后）定期出现在我们的季度和年度利润中。",[14,1540,1541],{},"在这封信的前面部分我曾说过，去年我犯了一个严重的主动性错误（也许还有更多，只是这个最扎眼）。完全不是查理或其他任何人的建议，我在石油和天然气价格接近峰值时买入了大量康菲石油 (ConocoPhillips) 的股票。我完全没有预料到下半年能源价格会出现如此剧烈的暴跌。我仍然认为未来油价远高于目前40至50美元的可能性很大。但到目前为止我大错特错。而且即使油价回升，我糟糕的买入时机已经让伯克希尔损失了数十亿美元。",[14,1543,1544,1545,1548],{},"我还犯了一些其他已经显而易见的错误。它们规模较小，但不幸的是也没",[704,1546,1547],{},"那么","小。2008年我花了2.44亿美元买了两家在我看来很便宜的爱尔兰银行的股票。到年底，我们将这些持仓减记至市价：2,700万美元，亏损89%。自那以后，这两只股票还在继续下跌。网球场上的人会管我这种失误叫\"非受迫性失误\"。",[14,1550,1551],{},"好的方面是，去年我们在箭牌 (Wrigley)、高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 和通用电气 (General Electric) 发行的固定收益证券上总共投入了145亿美元。我们非常喜欢这些投资安排——它们本身就有很高的当期收益率，足以使这些投资相当令人满意。而且在这三笔交易中，我们每笔都额外获得了可观的股权参与作为附赠。为了筹集这些大额投资的资金，我不得不卖掉一些我本来更愿意继续持有的仓位（主要是强生、宝洁和康菲石油）。然而，我已经向你们、向评级机构、也向我自己承诺过——我将始终以充足的现金来运营伯克希尔。我们绝不愿意依赖陌生人的善意来履行明天的义务。当被迫做出选择时，我不会为了多赚一点利润而牺牲哪怕一晚的安睡。",[14,1553,1554],{},"投资界已经从低估风险走到了高估风险。这不是什么小幅摆动——钟摆划出了一道极其夸张的弧线。就在几年前，这样的景象还不可想象：无风险的政府短期债券收益率接近于零，长期债券也好不了多少，但高等级的市政债券和企业债券居然能提供如此丰厚的收益率。当未来有人书写这个十年的金融史时，肯定会提到1990年代末的互联网泡沫和21世纪初的房地产泡沫。但2008年末的美国国债泡沫可能会被视为几乎同样非同寻常。",[14,1556,1557],{},"在当前收益率水平下长期持有现金等价物或长期政府债券，几乎可以肯定是一种糟糕的策略。当然，随着金融动荡的加剧，持有这些资产的人反而越来越自我感觉良好——事实上近乎沾沾自喜。当他们听到评论员宣称\"现金为王\"时，更觉得自己英明无比——全然不顾这些\"为王\"的现金几乎毫无收益，而且购买力随着时间的推移必将不断缩水。",[14,1559,1560],{},"然而，获得赞许并不是投资的目的。事实上，赞许往往适得其反，因为它麻痹了大脑，使其不愿接受新事实，也不愿重新审视此前形成的结论。谨防那些赢得掌声的投资行为；那些真正伟大的举动，通常只会换来一声哈欠。",[10,1562,1563],{"id":1563},"衍生品",[14,1565,1566],{},"衍生品很危险。它们大幅增加了金融系统中的杠杆和风险。它们使得投资者几乎不可能看懂和分析我们最大的商业银行和投资银行。它们让房利美 (Fannie Mae) 和房地美 (Freddie Mac) 多年来大规模虚报收益。房地美和房利美复杂到连它们的联邦监管机构——联邦住房企业监管办公室 (OFHEO)——也完全看不明白账目。该机构100多名员工除了监管这两家机构之外别无他事，却依然对它们的账目造假毫无察觉。",[14,1568,1569],{},"事实上，最近发生的事件表明，某些大型金融机构的知名CEO（或前CEO）根本没有能力管理一个庞大而复杂的衍生品账簿。查理和我也在这个倒霉鬼名单里：1998年伯克希尔收购通用再保险时，我们知道自己搞不定它与884个交易对手签订的23,218份衍生品合约（其中许多对手方我们听都没听说过）。于是我们决定关门大吉。尽管我们退出时没有面临任何压力，市场环境也算温和，但我们还是花了五年时间、亏了4亿多美元才基本完成这项任务。离场之际，我们对这门生意的感受正如一首乡村歌曲里唱的：\"在还没那么了解你之前，我更喜欢你一些。\"",[14,1571,1572,1573,1576],{},"提高\"透明度\"——政治家、评论员和金融监管者最热衷的防止未来灾难的药方——并不能治愈衍生品造成的问题。据我所知，没有任何报告机制能够接近于描述和衡量一个庞大复杂的衍生品组合所蕴含的风险。审计师审计不了这些合约，监管者也监管不了它们。当我阅读那些深陷衍生品泥潭的公司10-K年报中动辄数页的\"信息披露\"时，我最后唯一知道的就是我对它们的投资组合",[704,1574,1575],{},"一无所知","（然后我得吃几片阿司匹林来缓解头痛）。",[14,1578,1579],{},"作为一个监管有效性的案例研究，让我们再仔细看看房地美和房利美的例子。这两个庞然大物由国会创立，国会对它们保持着控制权，规定什么可以做、什么不可以做。为了加强监管，国会在1992年设立了OFHEO，叮嘱它确保这两头巨兽循规蹈矩。以投入监管任务的人力来衡量，这一举措使房利美和房地美成为我所知的监管最严密的公司。",[14,1581,1582,1583,1586],{},"2003年6月15日，OFHEO（其年报可在网上查阅）将2002年度报告递交国会——具体来说是递交给参众两院中它的四位上司，其中赫然包括大名鼎鼎的萨班斯和奥克斯利两位先生（Sarbanes、Oxley）。这份127页的报告封面上写着一句自我表彰的口号：\"庆祝卓越的十年\"。然而，这份公文和报告是在房地美的CEO和CFO因丑闻辞职、COO被解雇",[704,1584,1585],{},"九天之后","才送出的。信中对他们的离去只字未提，而报告的结论一如既往：\"两家企业财务状况良好，管理得当。\"",[14,1588,1589],{},"实际上，这两家机构已经进行了相当长时间的大规模会计造假。终于，在2006年，OFHEO发布了一份长达340页的报告，措辞严厉地记述了房利美的种种罪行，并将这场失败或多或少地归咎于每一个相关方——除了，你猜得没错，国会和OFHEO自己。",[14,1591,1592],{},"贝尔斯登 (Bear Stearns) 的崩溃凸显了衍生品交易中内含的对手方风险问题——这颗定时炸弹我在伯克希尔2002年的报告中就首次讨论过。2008年4月3日，时任纽约联储主席的蒂姆·盖特纳 (Tim Geithner) 解释了救援的必要性：\"贝尔斯登的衍生品交易对手突然发现，他们为保护自身免受金融风险而建立的重要金融头寸已经失效，这将触发市场进一步的重大混乱。这将促使贝尔斯登的交易对手争相抛售它们持有的抵押品，并试图在本已极其脆弱的市场中复制那些头寸。\"翻译成大白话就是：\"我们介入是为了避免一场规模不可预测的金融连锁反应。\"在我看来，美联储的做法是正确的。",[14,1594,1595,1596,1599],{},"正常的股票或债券交易在几天之内就能完成，一方拿到现金，另一方拿到证券。对手方风险因此迅速消失，信用问题不会累积。这种快速结算流程是维护市场完整性的关键。事实上，这正是纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在1995年将结算周期从五天",[704,1597,1598],{},"缩短","到三天的原因。",[14,1601,1602,1603,1606,1607,1610],{},"相比之下，衍生品合约常常数年甚至数十年都不结算，交易对手之间累积起巨额的相互索赔。难以量化的\"纸面\"资产和负债成为财务报表的重要组成部分，尽管这些数字在多年之后才会得到验证。此外，大型金融机构之间形成了一张令人胆寒的相互依存之网。数十亿美元的应收款和应付款集中在少数几个大型交易商手中，而这些交易商在其他方面往往也是高度杠杆化的。试图躲避麻烦的参与者面临的问题，和试图避免性病的人一样：重要的不只是",[704,1604,1605],{},"你","和谁上床，还有",[704,1608,1609],{},"他们","在和谁上床。",[14,1612,1613,1614,1617],{},"延续我们的比喻——和周围所有人\"发生关系\"，对大型衍生品交易商来说其实还挺有用的，因为这保证了它们一旦出事就能得到政府的救助。换句话说，只有那些问题严重到可能感染整个社区的公司——我就不点名了——才肯定会成为政府关注的对象（我遗憾地说，这种结果是恰当的）。这个恼人的现实催生了一条",[704,1615,1616],{},"企业生存第一定律","，适用于那些野心勃勃、热衷加杠杆、经营着庞大而深不可测的衍生品账簿的CEO们：小打小闹的无能可不够看；你得搞出那种让人叹为观止的超级大烂摊子才行。",[14,1619,1620,1621,1624],{},"看了我描绘的这幅毁灭性画面，你也许会纳闷，为什么伯克希尔自己也是251份衍生品合约的当事方（不包括中美能源出于运营目的使用的合约，以及通用再保险遗留下来的少量合约）。答案很简单：我相信我们持有的每一份合约在签订之初都存在定价偏差，有些偏差还相当惊人。这些头寸是我亲自建立的，也由我亲自监控——这与我的一贯信念完全一致：任何大型金融机构的CEO同时",[704,1622,1623],{},"必须","是首席风险官。如果我们在衍生品上亏了钱，那就是我的错。",[14,1626,1627],{},"我们的衍生品交易要求对手方在合约签订时就向我们付款。因此，资金始终掌握在伯克希尔手中，我们基本不承担有意义的对手方风险。截至年底，我们收到的付款减去已支付的损失——可以称之为我们衍生品的\"浮存金\"——总计81亿美元。这笔浮存金类似于浮存金：如果我们在基础交易上打个平手，就等于长期免费使用了这笔钱。虽然远非确定无疑，但我们的预期是会比打平做得更好，而且我们用这些资金赚取的大量投资收益将是锦上添花。",[14,1629,1630,1631,1635],{},"只有一小部分合约要求我们在市场走势不利时提供抵押品。即使在去年第四季度那样的混乱条件下，我们也只需提供不到1%的证券组合作为抵押。（当我们提供抵押品时，我们将其存放在第三方，同时保留所存证券的投资收益。）在2002年的年度报告中，我们就曾警告过抵押品追加要求可能带来的致命威胁，去年我们在多家金融机构亲眼目睹了这一幕的真实上演（不仅如此，星座能源 ",[1632,1633,1634],"span",{},"Constellation Energy"," 在中美能源赶到施以援手时，距离破产只有数小时之遥）。",[14,1637,1638],{},"我们的合约分为四大类。对金融工具不太感兴趣的朋友，我先说声抱歉，因为我将非常详细地逐一解释。",[1640,1641,1642],"ul",{},[1643,1644,1645],"li",{},"我在去年报告中描述的\"股票看跌期权\"组合今年又适度扩大了。我们的一些合约15年后到期，另一些则是20年。如果在到期日，与看跌期权挂钩的参考指数低于合约签订时的水平，我们就必须向交易对手付款。任何一方都不能选择提前结算；重要的只是最后一天的价格。\n举个例子：假设我们在标普500指数为1,300点时卖出一份价值10亿美元、期限15年的看跌期权。如果到期日指数为1,170——下跌了10%——我们需要支付1亿美元。如果指数高于1,300，我们分文不欠。要让我们亏掉全部10亿美元，指数必须跌到零。与此同时，卖出这份看跌期权将为我们带来一笔保费收入——大约1亿到1.5亿美元——我们可以自由地将其投资于任何地方。",[14,1647,1648],{},"我们的看跌期权合约总金额为371亿美元（按当前汇率计算），分布于四个主要指数：美国的标普500指数、英国的富时100指数、欧洲的欧洲斯托克50指数和日本的日经225指数。第一份合约于2019年9月9日到期，最后一份于2028年1月24日到期。我们已经收到了49亿美元的保费，这些钱已被我们用于投资。与此同时，我们无需支付任何款项，因为所有到期日都在遥远的将来。尽管如此，我们采用了布莱克-斯科尔斯 (Black-Scholes) 估值方法记录了100亿美元的年末负债，这个数字在每个报告日都会变动。这两项财务数据——100亿美元的预计损失减去49亿美元的已收保费——意味着到目前为止，我们在这些合约上按市值计价已录得了51亿美元的损失。",[14,1650,1651],{},"我们支持按市值计价的会计方法。不过稍后我会解释，为什么我认为布莱克-斯科尔斯公式——尽管它是确定期权金额负债的行业标准——在对长期品种进行估值时会产生奇怪的结果。",[14,1653,1654],{},"关于我们的合约有一点有时容易被误解：要让我们面临的全部371亿美元风险都变成损失，四个指数中所有股票都必须在各自的到期日跌到零。如果——举个例子——所有指数都从各自合约签订时的水平下跌25%，而汇率保持在今天的水平，那么我们大约需要在2019年至2028年间支付约90亿美元。在合约签订到到期的这段时间里，我们手中持有49亿美元的保费，并从中赚取投资收益。",[1640,1656,1657],{},[1643,1658,1659],{},"我在去年报告中描述的第二类衍生品，要求我们在高收益指数中所含公司发生信用损失时进行赔付。我们的标准合约覆盖5年期限，涉及100家公司。去年我们适度扩大了这一类别的头寸。但当然，2007年底账面上的合约离到期又近了一年。总体而言，我们的合约现在平均剩余期限约为2又1\u002F3年，第一份将于2009年9月20日到期，最后一份于2013年12月20日到期。\n到年底，我们从这些合约收到了34亿美元的保费，并支付了5.42亿美元的损失。按照按市值计价的原则，我们还为未来损失计提了30亿美元的负债准备。因此，我们到目前为止合计录得约1亿美元的损失——即35亿美元的已付和预计未来损失减去收到的34亿美元保费。然而，在我们的季度报告中，盈亏金额波动剧烈，从2008年第二季度的3.27亿美元利润到2008年第四季度的6.93亿美元亏损。",[14,1661,1662],{},"令人惊讶的是，去年我们为这些合约实际只支付了9,700万美元的赔付，远低于我当初决定签订这些合约时的预估。然而，随着大型破产案例的急剧增加，今年损失将加速增长。在去年的信中，我告诉你们我预期这些合约到期时将实现盈利。现在，随着经济衰退急速加深，最终亏损的可能性增大了。无论结果如何，我都会随时向你们通报。",[1640,1664,1665],{},[1643,1666,1667],{},"2008年我们开始对单个公司签写\"信用违约互换\" (credit default swaps)。这只是信用保险的一种，与我们在BHAC承做的类似，只不过这里我们承担的是公司的信用风险，而不是免税债券发行人的信用风险。\n比方说，XYZ公司破产了，而我们签了一份1亿美元的合约，那我们就有义务支付一个反映XYZ公司同等金额债务缩水程度的赔偿。（例如，如果该公司的债券在违约后以30美分的价格交易，我们就欠7,000万美元。）对于一份典型的合约，我们在5年内按季度收取保费，之后保险到期。",[14,1669,1670],{},"到年底，我们为42家公司签写了总计40亿美元的合约，年保费收入约9,300万美元。这是我们承做的唯一具有交易对手风险的衍生品业务——向我们购买合约的一方必须在未来五年内有能力按季度支付保费。我们不太可能大幅扩大这项业务，因为这类保险的大多数买家现在都坚持要求卖方提供抵押品，而我们不会签订这类安排。",[1640,1672,1673],{},[1643,1674,1675],{},"应客户要求，我们签写了少量免税债券保险合约，与BHAC承做的类似，但结构上归类为衍生品。两种合约之间唯一有实质意义的区别是：衍生品需要按市值计价，而BHAC则采用标准的权责发生制会计。\n但这一区别可能产生奇特的结果。这些衍生品覆盖——实际上就是承保——的债券大多是各州的一般义务债券，我们对这些债券感觉良好。然而到年底，按市值计价的会计要求我们对这些衍生品合约记录了6.31亿美元的损失。假如我们改为在BHAC以相同的价格为同一批债券投保，并采用保险公司要求的权责发生制会计，我们当年反而会录得小幅利润。这两种保险方式最终会产生相同的会计结果。但在短期内，报告利润的差异可能相当大。",[14,1677,1678],{},"之前我已经告诉过你们，我们的衍生品合约——由于适用按市值计价的会计方法——在我们报告的利润中将产生剧烈的波动。这些起起落落既不会让查理和我欢呼，也不会让我们烦恼。事实上，\"下降\"还可能是有益的，因为它给了我们以有利条件扩大头寸的机会。我希望这番关于我们交易的解释能让你们也形成同样的看法。",[14,1680,1681],{},"今年我们将在处理会议问答环节的方式上做出重大改变。近几年来，我们收到的直接与伯克希尔及其运营相关的问题寥寥无几。去年几乎一个都没有。所以我们需要把讨论引导回伯克希尔的业务上来。",[14,1683,1684],{},"还有一个相关的问题：每天早上7点开门时，总会出现一阵疯狂的冲刺，因为人们想抢到12个提问麦克风前的第一个位置。从安全角度来说这不可取，而且我们也不认为短跑速度应该成为决定谁能提问的标准。（在78岁这一年，我得出结论：脚下的速度是一种被荒唐高估的天赋。）总之，新的程序是必要的。",[14,1686,1687,1688,1694,1695,1698,1699,1702],{},"第一个变化：来自报纸、杂志和电视媒体的几位财经记者将参与问答环节，向查理和我提出股东们通过电子邮件提交的问题。这些记者及其邮箱分别是：《财富》(Fortune) 杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯 (Carol Loomis)，邮箱 ",[712,1689,1693],{"href":1690,"rel":1691},"https:\u002F\u002Flearnbuffett.com\u002Fcdn-cgi\u002Fl\u002Femail-protection",[1692],"nofollow","[email protected]","；CNBC的贝基·奎克 (Becky Quick)，邮箱 ",[712,1696,1693],{"href":1690,"rel":1697},[1692],"；《纽约时报》(The New York Times) 的安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金 (Andrew Ross Sorkin)，邮箱 ",[712,1700,1693],{"href":1690,"rel":1701},[1692],"。每位记者将从收到的问题中挑选出他或她认为最有趣、最重要的十几个问题。（在你的邮件中，如果你希望被选中时记者能提到你的名字，请予以说明。）",[14,1704,1705],{},"查理和我事先不会得到关于所提问题的任何暗示。我们知道记者们会挑一些尖锐的问题——这正合我们意。",[14,1707,1708],{},"第二个变化：早上8点15分，我们将在每个麦克风处为希望亲自提问的股东进行抽签。在会议上，我将交替回答记者提出的问题和中签股东的问题。因此，至少一半的问题——那些由记者从你们提交的问题中筛选出来的——肯定是与伯克希尔相关的。与此同时，我们也会继续从在场观众那里得到一些好问题——也许还有些饶有趣味的问题。",[14,1710,1711],{},"所以，来参加我们这场资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节吧，也告诉我们你对新形式的看法。查理和我期待与大家见面。",[14,1713,1714],{},"2009年2月27日",[14,1716,1717],{},"沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren E. Buffett)",[14,1719,1720],{},"董事会主席",[1722,1723,1726,1732],"section",{"className":1724,"dataFootnotes":717},[1725],"footnotes",[1727,1728,1731],"h2",{"className":1729,"id":716},[1730],"sr-only","Footnotes",[1733,1734,1735],"ol",{},[1643,1736,1738,1739],{"id":1737},"user-content-fn-*","本报告中使用的所有每股数字均适用于伯克希尔A股。B股数据为A股的三十分之一。 ",[712,1740,1745],{"href":1741,"ariaLabel":1742,"className":1743,"dataFootnoteBackref":717},"#user-content-fnref-*","Back to reference 1",[1744],"data-footnote-backref","↩",{"title":717,"searchDepth":1747,"depth":1747,"links":1748},2,[1749],{"id":716,"depth":1747,"text":1731},"致股东信",null,"2008年巴菲特致股东信，分析金融危机冲击、投资策略调整、收购靴匠及邮报公司","md",{},true,79,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1752},"2008 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","npPlMD3t18fZXcBXXDgXHBNWXg3eJ9_SC2u4DRAc6dk","buffett",[1765,1769,1773,1777,1780,1783,1786,1790,1793,1796,1800,1803,1806,1810,1813,1816,1820,1823,1826,1830,1833,1836,1840,1843,1846,1850,1853,1856,1860,1863,1866,1870,1873,1876,1880,1883,1886,1890,1893,1896,1900,1903,1906,1910,1913,1916,1920,1923,1926,1930,1933,1936,1940,1943,1946,1950,1953,1956,1960,1963,1966,1970,1973,1976,1980,1983,1986,1990,1993,1996,2000,2003,2006,2010,2013,2016,2020,2023,2026,2030,2033,2036,2040,2043,2046,2050,2053,2056,2060,2063,2066,2070,2073,2076,2080,2083,2086,2090,2093,2096,2100,2103,2107,2110,2114,2117,2121,2124,2128,2131,2135,2138,2142,2145,2149,2152,2156,2159,2163,2166,2170,2173,2177,2180,2184,2187,2191,2194,2198,2201,2205,2208,2212,2215,2219,2222,2226,2229,2233,2236,2240,2243,2247,2250,2254,2257,2261,2264,2268,2271,2275,2278,2282,2285,2289,2292,2296,2299,2303,2306,2310,2313,2317,2320,2324,2327,2331,2334,2338,2341,2345,2348,2352,2355,2359,2362,2366,2369,2373,2376,2380,2383,2387,2390,2394,2397,2401,2404,2408,2411,2412,2415,2419,2422,2426,2429,2433,2436,2440,2443,2447,2450,2454,2457,2461,2464,2468,2471,2475,2478,2482,2485,2489,2492,2496,2499,2503,2506,2510,2513,2517,2520,2524,2527,2531,2534,2538,2541,2545,2548,2552,2555,2559,2562,2566,2570,2574,2578,2582,2586,2590,2594,2598,2602,2606,2610,2614,2618,2622,2626,2630,2634,2638,2642,2646,2650,2654,2658,2662,2666,2670,2674,2678,2682,2686,2690,2694,2698,2702,2706,2710,2714,2718,2722,2726,2730,2734,2738,2742,2746,2750,2754,2758,2762],{"title":1766,"slug":1767,"category":1750,"order":1768},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1770,"slug":1771,"category":1772,"order":1768},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1774,"slug":1775,"category":1776,"order":1768},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1778,"slug":1779,"category":1750,"order":1747},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1781,"slug":1782,"category":1772,"order":1747},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1784,"slug":1785,"category":1776,"order":1747},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1787,"slug":1788,"category":1750,"order":1789},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1791,"slug":1792,"category":1772,"order":1789},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1794,"slug":1795,"category":1776,"order":1789},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1797,"slug":1798,"category":1750,"order":1799},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1801,"slug":1802,"category":1772,"order":1799},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1804,"slug":1805,"category":1776,"order":1799},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1807,"slug":1808,"category":1750,"order":1809},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1811,"slug":1812,"category":1772,"order":1809},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1814,"slug":1815,"category":1776,"order":1809},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1817,"slug":1818,"category":1750,"order":1819},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":1821,"slug":1822,"category":1772,"order":1819},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":1824,"slug":1825,"category":1776,"order":1819},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1827,"slug":1828,"category":1750,"order":1829},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":1831,"slug":1832,"category":1772,"order":1829},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":1834,"slug":1835,"category":1776,"order":1829},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1837,"slug":1838,"category":1750,"order":1839},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":1841,"slug":1842,"category":1772,"order":1839},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1844,"slug":1845,"category":1776,"order":1839},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1847,"slug":1848,"category":1750,"order":1849},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":1851,"slug":1852,"category":1772,"order":1849},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":1854,"slug":1855,"category":1776,"order":1849},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1857,"slug":1858,"category":1750,"order":1859},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":1861,"slug":1862,"category":1772,"order":1859},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1864,"slug":1865,"category":1776,"order":1859},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1867,"slug":1868,"category":1750,"order":1869},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":1871,"slug":1872,"category":1772,"order":1869},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":1874,"slug":1875,"category":1776,"order":1869},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1877,"slug":1878,"category":1750,"order":1879},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":1881,"slug":1882,"category":1772,"order":1879},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":1884,"slug":1885,"category":1776,"order":1879},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1887,"slug":1888,"category":1750,"order":1889},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":1891,"slug":1892,"category":1772,"order":1889},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":1894,"slug":1895,"category":1776,"order":1889},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1897,"slug":1898,"category":1750,"order":1899},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":1901,"slug":1902,"category":1772,"order":1899},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1904,"slug":1905,"category":1776,"order":1899},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1907,"slug":1908,"category":1750,"order":1909},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":1911,"slug":1912,"category":1772,"order":1909},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":1914,"slug":1915,"category":1776,"order":1909},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1917,"slug":1918,"category":1750,"order":1919},"1964 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巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2213,"slug":2214,"category":1772,"order":2211},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2216,"slug":2217,"category":1750,"order":2218},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2220,"slug":2221,"category":1772,"order":2218},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2223,"slug":2224,"category":1750,"order":2225},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2227,"slug":2228,"category":1772,"order":2225},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2230,"slug":2231,"category":1750,"order":2232},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2234,"slug":2235,"category":1772,"order":2232},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2237,"slug":2238,"category":1750,"order":2239},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2241,"slug":2242,"category":1772,"order":2239},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2244,"slug":2245,"category":1750,"order":2246},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2248,"slug":2249,"category":1772,"order":2246},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2251,"slug":2252,"category":1750,"order":2253},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2255,"slug":2256,"category":1772,"order":2253},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2258,"slug":2259,"category":1750,"order":2260},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2262,"slug":2263,"category":1772,"order":2260},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2265,"slug":2266,"category":1750,"order":2267},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2269,"slug":2270,"category":1772,"order":2267},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2272,"slug":2273,"category":1750,"order":2274},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2276,"slug":2277,"category":1772,"order":2274},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2279,"slug":2280,"category":1750,"order":2281},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2283,"slug":2284,"category":1772,"order":2281},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2286,"slug":2287,"category":1750,"order":2288},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2290,"slug":2291,"category":1772,"order":2288},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2293,"slug":2294,"category":1750,"order":2295},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2297,"slug":2298,"category":1772,"order":2295},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2300,"slug":2301,"category":1750,"order":2302},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2304,"slug":2305,"category":1772,"order":2302},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2307,"slug":2308,"category":1750,"order":2309},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2311,"slug":2312,"category":1772,"order":2309},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2314,"slug":2315,"category":1750,"order":2316},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2318,"slug":2319,"category":1772,"order":2316},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2321,"slug":2322,"category":1750,"order":2323},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2325,"slug":2326,"category":1772,"order":2323},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2328,"slug":2329,"category":1750,"order":2330},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2332,"slug":2333,"category":1772,"order":2330},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2335,"slug":2336,"category":1750,"order":2337},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2339,"slug":2340,"category":1772,"order":2337},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2342,"slug":2343,"category":1750,"order":2344},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2346,"slug":2347,"category":1772,"order":2344},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2349,"slug":2350,"category":1750,"order":2351},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2353,"slug":2354,"category":1772,"order":2351},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2356,"slug":2357,"category":1750,"order":2358},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2360,"slug":2361,"category":1772,"order":2358},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2363,"slug":2364,"category":1750,"order":2365},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2367,"slug":2368,"category":1772,"order":2365},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2370,"slug":2371,"category":1750,"order":2372},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2374,"slug":2375,"category":1772,"order":2372},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2377,"slug":2378,"category":1750,"order":2379},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2381,"slug":2382,"category":1772,"order":2379},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2384,"slug":2385,"category":1750,"order":2386},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2388,"slug":2389,"category":1772,"order":2386},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2391,"slug":2392,"category":1750,"order":2393},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2395,"slug":2396,"category":1772,"order":2393},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2398,"slug":2399,"category":1750,"order":2400},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2402,"slug":2403,"category":1772,"order":2400},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2405,"slug":2406,"category":1750,"order":2407},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2409,"slug":2410,"category":1772,"order":2407},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":5,"slug":1760,"category":1750,"order":1756},{"title":2413,"slug":2414,"category":1772,"order":1756},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2416,"slug":2417,"category":1750,"order":2418},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2420,"slug":2421,"category":1772,"order":2418},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2423,"slug":2424,"category":1750,"order":2425},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2427,"slug":2428,"category":1772,"order":2425},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2430,"slug":2431,"category":1750,"order":2432},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2434,"slug":2435,"category":1772,"order":2432},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2437,"slug":2438,"category":1750,"order":2439},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2441,"slug":2442,"category":1772,"order":2439},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2444,"slug":2445,"category":1750,"order":2446},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2448,"slug":2449,"category":1772,"order":2446},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2451,"slug":2452,"category":1750,"order":2453},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2455,"slug":2456,"category":1772,"order":2453},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2458,"slug":2459,"category":1750,"order":2460},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2462,"slug":2463,"category":1772,"order":2460},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2465,"slug":2466,"category":1750,"order":2467},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2469,"slug":2470,"category":1772,"order":2467},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2472,"slug":2473,"category":1750,"order":2474},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":2476,"slug":2477,"category":1772,"order":2474},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":2479,"slug":2480,"category":1750,"order":2481},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":2483,"slug":2484,"category":1772,"order":2481},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2486,"slug":2487,"category":1750,"order":2488},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":2490,"slug":2491,"category":1772,"order":2488},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":2493,"slug":2494,"category":1750,"order":2495},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":2497,"slug":2498,"category":1772,"order":2495},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":2500,"slug":2501,"category":1750,"order":2502},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":2504,"slug":2505,"category":1772,"order":2502},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2507,"slug":2508,"category":1750,"order":2509},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":2511,"slug":2512,"category":1772,"order":2509},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":2514,"slug":2515,"category":1750,"order":2516},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":2518,"slug":2519,"category":1772,"order":2516},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2521,"slug":2522,"category":1750,"order":2523},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":2525,"slug":2526,"category":1772,"order":2523},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":2528,"slug":2529,"category":1750,"order":2530},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":2532,"slug":2533,"category":1772,"order":2530},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":2535,"slug":2536,"category":1750,"order":2537},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":2539,"slug":2540,"category":1772,"order":2537},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2542,"slug":2543,"category":1750,"order":2544},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":2546,"slug":2547,"category":1772,"order":2544},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2549,"slug":2550,"category":1750,"order":2551},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":2553,"slug":2554,"category":1772,"order":2551},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2556,"slug":2557,"category":1750,"order":2558},"2026 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