[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3485},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":1949,"library-sidebar-dao":2951,"library-sidebar-models":3253},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":1935,"date":1936,"description":1937,"extension":1938,"meta":1939,"navigation":1940,"order":1941,"path":1942,"seo":1943,"seoDescription":1937,"seoTitle":1944,"slug":1945,"stem":1946,"__hash__":1947,"_collection":1948},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin.md","2010 巴菲特致股东信",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":1931},"minimark",[9,13,20,699,705,708,719,723,728,743,746,749,757,760,767,774,781,784,787,790,793,796,803,810,813,820,823,826,831,1388,1393,1396,1400,1403,1406,1409,1412,1415,1498,1501,1504,1580,1583,1586,1589,1592,1595,1598,1601,1649,1660,1663,1670,1673,1680,1683,1686,1693,1696,1699,1702,1705,1708,1715,1718,1721,1728,1731,1734,1737,1740,1743,1746,1749,1752,1755,1758,1761,1764,1767,1770,1773,1776,1779,1782,1786,1789,1796,1815,1822,1825,1828,1831,1834,1837,1840,1843,1846,1849,1852,1858,1864,1870,1876,1879,1886,1893,1896,1899,1902,1905],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"_2010-巴菲特致股东信",[14,15,16],"p",{},[17,18,19],"strong",{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数业绩对比",[21,22,23,42],"table",{},[24,25,26],"thead",{},[27,28,29,33,36,39],"tr",{},[30,31,32],"th",{},"年份",[30,34,35],{},"伯克希尔每股账面价值年度变动百分比 (1)",[30,37,38],{},"含股息标普500指数年度变动百分比 (2)",[30,40,41],{},"相对结果 (1)-(2)",[43,44,45,60,74,88,101,115,129,143,157,171,185,199,213,226,240,253,267,281,295,308,322,336,348,361,374,388,402,416,428,442,456,469,483,497,511,525,539,553,566,579,592,605,619,630,644,658,672,686],"tbody",{},[27,46,47,51,54,57],{},[48,49,50],"td",{},"1965",[48,52,53],{},"23.8",[48,55,56],{},"10.0",[48,58,59],{},"13.8",[27,61,62,65,68,71],{},[48,63,64],{},"1966",[48,66,67],{},"20.3",[48,69,70],{},"(11.7)",[48,72,73],{},"32.0",[27,75,76,79,82,85],{},[48,77,78],{},"1967",[48,80,81],{},"11.0",[48,83,84],{},"30.9",[48,86,87],{},"(19.9)",[27,89,90,93,96,98],{},[48,91,92],{},"1968",[48,94,95],{},"19.0",[48,97,81],{},[48,99,100],{},"8.0",[27,102,103,106,109,112],{},[48,104,105],{},"1969",[48,107,108],{},"16.2",[48,110,111],{},"(8.4)",[48,113,114],{},"24.6",[27,116,117,120,123,126],{},[48,118,119],{},"1970",[48,121,122],{},"12.0",[48,124,125],{},"3.9",[48,127,128],{},"8.1",[27,130,131,134,137,140],{},[48,132,133],{},"1971",[48,135,136],{},"16.4",[48,138,139],{},"14.6",[48,141,142],{},"1.8",[27,144,145,148,151,154],{},[48,146,147],{},"1972",[48,149,150],{},"21.7",[48,152,153],{},"18.9",[48,155,156],{},"2.8",[27,158,159,162,165,168],{},[48,160,161],{},"1973",[48,163,164],{},"4.7",[48,166,167],{},"(14.8)",[48,169,170],{},"19.5",[27,172,173,176,179,182],{},[48,174,175],{},"1974",[48,177,178],{},"5.5",[48,180,181],{},"(26.4)",[48,183,184],{},"31.9",[27,186,187,190,193,196],{},[48,188,189],{},"1975",[48,191,192],{},"21.9",[48,194,195],{},"37.2",[48,197,198],{},"(15.3)",[27,200,201,204,207,210],{},[48,202,203],{},"1976",[48,205,206],{},"59.3",[48,208,209],{},"23.6",[48,211,212],{},"35.7",[27,214,215,218,220,223],{},[48,216,217],{},"1977",[48,219,184],{},[48,221,222],{},"(7.4)",[48,224,225],{},"39.3",[27,227,228,231,234,237],{},[48,229,230],{},"1978",[48,232,233],{},"24.0",[48,235,236],{},"6.4",[48,238,239],{},"17.6",[27,241,242,245,247,250],{},[48,243,244],{},"1979",[48,246,212],{},[48,248,249],{},"18.2",[48,251,252],{},"17.5",[27,254,255,258,261,264],{},[48,256,257],{},"1980",[48,259,260],{},"19.3",[48,262,263],{},"32.3",[48,265,266],{},"(13.0)",[27,268,269,272,275,278],{},[48,270,271],{},"1981",[48,273,274],{},"31.4",[48,276,277],{},"(5.0)",[48,279,280],{},"36.4",[27,282,283,286,289,292],{},[48,284,285],{},"1982",[48,287,288],{},"40.0",[48,290,291],{},"21.4",[48,293,294],{},"18.6",[27,296,297,300,302,305],{},[48,298,299],{},"1983",[48,301,263],{},[48,303,304],{},"22.4",[48,306,307],{},"9.9",[27,309,310,313,316,319],{},[48,311,312],{},"1984",[48,314,315],{},"13.6",[48,317,318],{},"6.1",[48,320,321],{},"7.5",[27,323,324,327,330,333],{},[48,325,326],{},"1985",[48,328,329],{},"48.2",[48,331,332],{},"31.6",[48,334,335],{},"16.6",[27,337,338,341,344,346],{},[48,339,340],{},"1986",[48,342,343],{},"26.1",[48,345,294],{},[48,347,321],{},[27,349,350,353,355,358],{},[48,351,352],{},"1987",[48,354,170],{},[48,356,357],{},"5.1",[48,359,360],{},"14.4",[27,362,363,366,369,371],{},[48,364,365],{},"1988",[48,367,368],{},"20.1",[48,370,335],{},[48,372,373],{},"3.5",[27,375,376,379,382,385],{},[48,377,378],{},"1989",[48,380,381],{},"44.4",[48,383,384],{},"31.7",[48,386,387],{},"12.7",[27,389,390,393,396,399],{},[48,391,392],{},"1990",[48,394,395],{},"7.4",[48,397,398],{},"(3.1)",[48,400,401],{},"10.5",[27,403,404,407,410,413],{},[48,405,406],{},"1991",[48,408,409],{},"39.6",[48,411,412],{},"30.5",[48,414,415],{},"9.1",[27,417,418,421,423,426],{},[48,419,420],{},"1992",[48,422,67],{},[48,424,425],{},"7.6",[48,427,387],{},[27,429,430,433,436,439],{},[48,431,432],{},"1993",[48,434,435],{},"14.3",[48,437,438],{},"10.1",[48,440,441],{},"4.2",[27,443,444,447,450,453],{},[48,445,446],{},"1994",[48,448,449],{},"13.9",[48,451,452],{},"1.3",[48,454,455],{},"12.6",[27,457,458,461,464,467],{},[48,459,460],{},"1995",[48,462,463],{},"43.1",[48,465,466],{},"37.6",[48,468,178],{},[27,470,471,474,477,480],{},[48,472,473],{},"1996",[48,475,476],{},"31.8",[48,478,479],{},"23.0",[48,481,482],{},"8.8",[27,484,485,488,491,494],{},[48,486,487],{},"1997",[48,489,490],{},"34.1",[48,492,493],{},"33.4",[48,495,496],{},".7",[27,498,499,502,505,508],{},[48,500,501],{},"1998",[48,503,504],{},"48.3",[48,506,507],{},"28.6",[48,509,510],{},"19.7",[27,512,513,516,519,522],{},[48,514,515],{},"1999",[48,517,518],{},".5",[48,520,521],{},"21.0",[48,523,524],{},"(20.5)",[27,526,527,530,533,536],{},[48,528,529],{},"2000",[48,531,532],{},"6.5",[48,534,535],{},"(9.1)",[48,537,538],{},"15.6",[27,540,541,544,547,550],{},[48,542,543],{},"2001",[48,545,546],{},"(6.2)",[48,548,549],{},"(11.9)",[48,551,552],{},"5.7",[27,554,555,558,560,563],{},[48,556,557],{},"2002",[48,559,56],{},[48,561,562],{},"(22.1)",[48,564,565],{},"32.1",[27,567,568,571,573,576],{},[48,569,570],{},"2003",[48,572,521],{},[48,574,575],{},"28.7",[48,577,578],{},"(7.7)",[27,580,581,584,586,589],{},[48,582,583],{},"2004",[48,585,401],{},[48,587,588],{},"10.9",[48,590,591],{},"(.4)",[27,593,594,597,599,602],{},[48,595,596],{},"2005",[48,598,236],{},[48,600,601],{},"4.9",[48,603,604],{},"1.5",[27,606,607,610,613,616],{},[48,608,609],{},"2006",[48,611,612],{},"18.4",[48,614,615],{},"15.8",[48,617,618],{},"2.6",[27,620,621,624,626,628],{},[48,622,623],{},"2007",[48,625,81],{},[48,627,178],{},[48,629,178],{},[27,631,632,635,638,641],{},[48,633,634],{},"2008",[48,636,637],{},"(9.6)",[48,639,640],{},"(37.0)",[48,642,643],{},"27.4",[27,645,646,649,652,655],{},[48,647,648],{},"2009",[48,650,651],{},"19.8",[48,653,654],{},"26.5",[48,656,657],{},"(6.7)",[27,659,660,663,666,669],{},[48,661,662],{},"2010",[48,664,665],{},"13.0",[48,667,668],{},"15.1",[48,670,671],{},"(2.1)",[27,673,674,677,680,683],{},[48,675,676],{},"年复合增长率 -- 1965-2010",[48,678,679],{},"20.2%",[48,681,682],{},"9.4%",[48,684,685],{},"10.8",[27,687,688,691,694,697],{},[48,689,690],{},"累计总收益 -- 1964-2010",[48,692,693],{},"490,409%",[48,695,696],{},"6,262%",[48,698],{},[14,700,701,704],{},[17,702,703],{},"注："," 数据为日历年数据，但以下情况除外：1965 年和 1966 年为截至 9 月 30 日的年度；1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。",[14,706,707],{},"自 1979 年起，会计准则要求保险公司按市场价值（而非此前的成本与市价孰低法）对其持有的权益证券进行估值。在本表中，伯克希尔 1978 年及之前的业绩已按新准则进行了重述。其他方面的数据均按最初报告的数字计算。",[14,709,710,711,714,715,718],{},"标普 500 指数的数字是",[17,712,713],{},"税前","的，而伯克希尔的数字是",[17,716,717],{},"税后","的。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司只是持有标普 500 指数并缴纳相应税款，那么在指数取得正收益的年份，其业绩会落后于标普 500；而在指数取得负收益的年份，其业绩则会超过标普 500。长年累月下来，税收成本会造成相当大的累计落后幅度。",[10,720,722],{"id":721},"伯克希尔哈撒韦公司","伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司",[14,724,725],{},[17,726,727],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：",[14,729,730,731],{},"2010 年，伯克希尔 A\u002FB 股每股账面价值增长了 13%。自现任管理层接手的 46 年以来，每股账面价值由当初的 19 美元成长到目前的 95,453 美元，年复合增长率约为 20.2%。",[732,733,734],"sup",{},[735,736,742],"a",{"href":737,"ariaDescribedBy":738,"dataFootnoteRef":740,"id":741},"#user-content-fn-*",[739],"footnote-label","","user-content-fnref-*","1",[14,744,745],{},"2010 年的亮点是我们收购了伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路（Burlington Northern Santa Fe），这笔交易的效果比我预期的还要好。现在看来，拥有这条铁路将使伯克希尔的\"常规\"盈利能力税前增长近 40%，税后增长远超 30%。这笔收购使我们的股份总数增加了 6%，动用了 220 亿美元现金。由于我们很快就补充了现金，这笔交易的经济效益非常出色。",[14,747,748],{},"当然，\"常规年份\"这个概念，无论是伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格（Charlie Munger），还是我本人，都很难精确定义。但为了估算我们当前的盈利能力，我们设想了这样一个年份：保险业务没有遭遇超级巨灾，整体经济环境好于 2010 年但弱于 2005 年或 2006 年。基于这些假设，以及我将在\"投资\"部分阐述的其他几个假设，我估计我们当前所拥有资产的常规盈利能力大约是税前 170 亿美元、税后 120 亿美元，不包括任何资本利得或损失。查理和我每天都在琢磨怎么在这个基础上更上一层楼。",[14,750,751,752,756],{},"我们两个人都对 BNSF 铁路的前景非常乐观，因为与其主要竞争对手——卡车运输相比，铁路在成本和环保方面都有巨大优势。去年，BNSF 铁路每运输一吨货物，一加仑柴油就能跑 500 英里，创下了新纪录。这比卡车运输的燃油效率高出",[753,754,755],"em",{},"三","倍，意味着我们的铁路在运营成本上拥有重要优势。与此同时，温室气体排放减少、进口石油需求降低，我们的国家也从中受益。货物走铁路，整个社会都受益。",[14,758,759],{},"随着时间推移，美国境内的货物运输量将持续增长，BNSF 铁路将从中获得应有的份额。为了实现这种增长，铁路需要进行大规模投资，而没有谁比伯克希尔更适合提供所需资金。不管经济多么低迷，市场多么混乱，我们开出的支票照样兑现。",[14,761,762,763,766],{},"去年——在人们对美国经济普遍悲观的情况下——我们用实际行动展示了伯克希尔对资本投资的热情，在不动产和设备上花了 60 亿美元。其中 54 亿美元——占总额的 90%——投在了美国境内。当然，我们的业务将来会向海外扩张，但绝大部分未来投资仍将留在国内。2011 年，我们将创下 80 亿美元资本支出的新纪录，增加的 20 亿美元将",[753,764,765],{},"全部","投在美国。",[14,768,769,770,773],{},"资本总是流向机会，而美国遍地是机会。如今的评论员动不动就说\"巨大的不确定性\"。但回想一下 1941 年 12 月 6 日、1987 年 10 月 18 日和 2001 年 9 月 10 日吧。无论今天看起来多么风平浪静，明天",[753,771,772],{},"总是","充满不确定性。",[14,775,776,777,780],{},"别被这个现实吓住。在我这一辈子里，政客和学者们一直在抱怨美国面临的种种可怕问题。然而，与我出生时相比，美国人的生活水平惊人地提高了六倍。那些末日预言家忽视了一个至关重要的、",[753,778,779],{},"确定无疑","的因素：人类的潜能远未耗尽，而释放这种潜能的美国制度——两百多年来尽管屡次被衰退甚至内战打断，却依然奇迹般运转的制度——至今仍然充满活力、行之有效。",[14,782,783],{},"我们并不比建国时的先辈更聪明，也不比他们更勤劳。但看看你四周，这个世界已经远远超出了殖民时代任何一位公民的梦想。如今，正如 1776 年、1861 年、1932 年和 1941 年一样，美国最好的日子还在前头。",[10,785,786],{"id":786},"业绩",[14,788,789],{},"查理和我认为，那些受人之托管理资金的人，应该在开始受托之初就确立绩效目标。没有这种标准，管理层就会倾向于先射出业绩之箭，然后再围着箭头画靶心。",[14,791,792],{},"就伯克希尔而言，我们很早就告诉过大家，我们的工作是让每股内在价值的增长超过标普 500 指数（含股息）的涨幅。有些年份我们做到了，有些年份没做到。但是，如果长期下来我们无法实现这一目标，那我们对投资者就毫无贡献——他们完全可以通过购买指数基金获得同等甚至更好的回报。",[14,794,795],{},"当然，如何计算内在价值本身就是个挑战。把这道题分别交给查理和我，你会得到两个不同的答案。精确是不可能的。",[14,797,798,799,802],{},"为了消除主观性，我们在衡量业绩时，采用了一个",[753,800,801],{},"偏低","的内在价值替代指标——账面价值。可以确定的是，我们有些业务的价值远远超过其账面价值。（在本报告后面，我们会展示一个案例。）但由于内在价值相对于账面价值的溢价很少在年度之间大幅波动，账面价值可以作为追踪我们表现的合理工具。",[14,804,805,806,809],{},"首页的业绩对比表显示了我们 46 年来相对于标普 500 指数的表现——早年的成绩相当出色，如今只能说令人满意。我们要强调的是，那些丰收的年份再也回不来了。我们目前管理的巨额资本消除了取得非凡业绩的",[753,807,808],{},"任何","可能。不过，我们将努力争取超越平均水平，你们要求我们达到这个标准也是公平的。",[14,811,812],{},"需要注意的是，年度数据既不应该被忽视，也不应该被过度看重。地球绕太阳公转的节奏，和投资理念或经营决策开花结果所需的时间并不同步。比如在盖可保险（GEICO），我们去年热情洋溢地花了 9 亿美元打广告来吸引保户，但这些客户并不会立刻为我们带来利润。如果我们能有效地把广告投入翻一番，我们会乐意这么做，即使短期业绩会因此进一步承压。我们在铁路和公用事业业务上的许多大额投资，同样着眼于长远的回报。",[14,814,815,816,819],{},"为了让你们对业绩有更长远的视角，我们将首页的年度数据重新整理成一系列五年期数据。总共有 42 期，它们讲述了一个有趣的故事。从相对表现来看，我们最好的年份出现在 1980 年代初。然而，接下来的 17 年才是",[753,817,818],{},"市场","的黄金时期——尽管我们的相对优势缩小了，伯克希尔仍然取得了惊人的绝对回报。",[14,821,822],{},"1999 年之后，市场陷入停滞（你们有没有注意到？）。因此，从那时起伯克希尔相对于标普 500 指数的令人满意的表现，也只带来了温和的绝对收益。",[14,824,825],{},"展望未来，我们希望平均每年能比标普 500 指数高出几个百分点——当然，这远非确定的事。如果能实现这个目标，我们几乎可以肯定会在股市低迷的年份取得较好的相对业绩，而在股市强劲的年份则表现逊色。",[14,827,828],{},[17,829,830],{},"伯克希尔与标普500指数五年期业绩对比",[21,832,833,847],{},[24,834,835],{},[27,836,837,840,842,844],{},[30,838,839],{},"五年期",[30,841,35],{},[30,843,38],{},[30,845,846],{},"结果 (1)-(2)",[43,848,849,863,875,887,900,914,928,941,954,967,980,993,1004,1017,1030,1042,1055,1068,1081,1092,1106,1118,1131,1144,1156,1168,1180,1192,1205,1219,1232,1246,1259,1271,1284,1297,1310,1322,1335,1349,1361,1375],{},[27,850,851,854,857,860],{},[48,852,853],{},"1965-1969",[48,855,856],{},"17.2",[48,858,859],{},"5.0",[48,861,862],{},"12.2",[27,864,865,868,871,873],{},[48,866,867],{},"1966-1970",[48,869,870],{},"14.7",[48,872,125],{},[48,874,685],{},[27,876,877,880,882,885],{},[48,878,879],{},"1967-1971",[48,881,449],{},[48,883,884],{},"9.2",[48,886,164],{},[27,888,889,892,895,897],{},[48,890,891],{},"1968-1972",[48,893,894],{},"16.8",[48,896,321],{},[48,898,899],{},"9.3",[27,901,902,905,908,911],{},[48,903,904],{},"1969-1973",[48,906,907],{},"17.7",[48,909,910],{},"2.0",[48,912,913],{},"15.7",[27,915,916,919,922,925],{},[48,917,918],{},"1970-1974",[48,920,921],{},"15.0",[48,923,924],{},"(2.4)",[48,926,927],{},"17.4",[27,929,930,933,935,938],{},[48,931,932],{},"1971-1975",[48,934,449],{},[48,936,937],{},"3.2",[48,939,940],{},"10.7",[27,942,943,946,949,951],{},[48,944,945],{},"1972-1976",[48,947,948],{},"20.8",[48,950,601],{},[48,952,953],{},"15.9",[27,955,956,959,962,965],{},[48,957,958],{},"1973-1977",[48,960,961],{},"23.4",[48,963,964],{},"(0.2)",[48,966,209],{},[27,968,969,972,975,978],{},[48,970,971],{},"1974-1978",[48,973,974],{},"24.4",[48,976,977],{},"4.3",[48,979,368],{},[27,981,982,985,988,990],{},[48,983,984],{},"1975-1979",[48,986,987],{},"30.1",[48,989,870],{},[48,991,992],{},"15.4",[27,994,995,998,1000,1002],{},[48,996,997],{},"1976-1980",[48,999,493],{},[48,1001,449],{},[48,1003,170],{},[27,1005,1006,1009,1012,1014],{},[48,1007,1008],{},"1977-1981",[48,1010,1011],{},"29.0",[48,1013,128],{},[48,1015,1016],{},"20.9",[27,1018,1019,1022,1025,1028],{},[48,1020,1021],{},"1978-1982",[48,1023,1024],{},"29.9",[48,1026,1027],{},"14.1",[48,1029,615],{},[27,1031,1032,1035,1037,1040],{},[48,1033,1034],{},"1979-1983",[48,1036,332],{},[48,1038,1039],{},"17.3",[48,1041,435],{},[27,1043,1044,1047,1050,1053],{},[48,1045,1046],{},"1980-1984",[48,1048,1049],{},"27.0",[48,1051,1052],{},"14.8",[48,1054,862],{},[27,1056,1057,1060,1063,1065],{},[48,1058,1059],{},"1981-1985",[48,1061,1062],{},"32.6",[48,1064,139],{},[48,1066,1067],{},"18.0",[27,1069,1070,1073,1076,1078],{},[48,1071,1072],{},"1982-1986",[48,1074,1075],{},"31.5",[48,1077,651],{},[48,1079,1080],{},"11.7",[27,1082,1083,1086,1088,1090],{},[48,1084,1085],{},"1983-1987",[48,1087,643],{},[48,1089,136],{},[48,1091,81],{},[27,1093,1094,1097,1100,1103],{},[48,1095,1096],{},"1984-1988",[48,1098,1099],{},"25.0",[48,1101,1102],{},"15.2",[48,1104,1105],{},"9.8",[27,1107,1108,1111,1114,1116],{},[48,1109,1110],{},"1985-1989",[48,1112,1113],{},"31.1",[48,1115,67],{},[48,1117,685],{},[27,1119,1120,1123,1126,1129],{},[48,1121,1122],{},"1986-1990",[48,1124,1125],{},"22.9",[48,1127,1128],{},"13.1",[48,1130,1105],{},[27,1132,1133,1136,1139,1142],{},[48,1134,1135],{},"1987-1991",[48,1137,1138],{},"25.4",[48,1140,1141],{},"15.3",[48,1143,438],{},[27,1145,1146,1149,1152,1154],{},[48,1147,1148],{},"1988-1992",[48,1150,1151],{},"25.6",[48,1153,615],{},[48,1155,1105],{},[27,1157,1158,1161,1163,1166],{},[48,1159,1160],{},"1989-1993",[48,1162,974],{},[48,1164,1165],{},"14.5",[48,1167,307],{},[27,1169,1170,1173,1175,1178],{},[48,1171,1172],{},"1990-1994",[48,1174,294],{},[48,1176,1177],{},"8.7",[48,1179,307],{},[27,1181,1182,1185,1187,1190],{},[48,1183,1184],{},"1991-1995",[48,1186,1151],{},[48,1188,1189],{},"16.5",[48,1191,415],{},[27,1193,1194,1197,1200,1202],{},[48,1195,1196],{},"1992-1996",[48,1198,1199],{},"24.2",[48,1201,1102],{},[48,1203,1204],{},"9.0",[27,1206,1207,1210,1213,1216],{},[48,1208,1209],{},"1993-1997",[48,1211,1212],{},"26.9",[48,1214,1215],{},"20.2",[48,1217,1218],{},"6.7",[27,1220,1221,1224,1227,1229],{},[48,1222,1223],{},"1994-1998",[48,1225,1226],{},"33.7",[48,1228,233],{},[48,1230,1231],{},"9.7",[27,1233,1234,1237,1240,1243],{},[48,1235,1236],{},"1995-1999",[48,1238,1239],{},"30.4",[48,1241,1242],{},"28.5",[48,1244,1245],{},"1.9",[27,1247,1248,1251,1253,1256],{},[48,1249,1250],{},"1996-2000",[48,1252,1125],{},[48,1254,1255],{},"18.3",[48,1257,1258],{},"4.6",[27,1260,1261,1264,1266,1268],{},[48,1262,1263],{},"1997-2001",[48,1265,1052],{},[48,1267,940],{},[48,1269,1270],{},"4.1",[27,1272,1273,1276,1279,1282],{},[48,1274,1275],{},"1998-2002",[48,1277,1278],{},"10.4",[48,1280,1281],{},"(0.6)",[48,1283,81],{},[27,1285,1286,1289,1292,1294],{},[48,1287,1288],{},"1999-2003",[48,1290,1291],{},"6.0",[48,1293,1281],{},[48,1295,1296],{},"6.6",[27,1298,1299,1302,1304,1307],{},[48,1300,1301],{},"2000-2004",[48,1303,100],{},[48,1305,1306],{},"(2.3)",[48,1308,1309],{},"10.3",[27,1311,1312,1315,1317,1320],{},[48,1313,1314],{},"2001-2005",[48,1316,100],{},[48,1318,1319],{},"0.6",[48,1321,395],{},[27,1323,1324,1327,1329,1332],{},[48,1325,1326],{},"2002-2006",[48,1328,1128],{},[48,1330,1331],{},"6.2",[48,1333,1334],{},"6.9",[27,1336,1337,1340,1343,1346],{},[48,1338,1339],{},"2003-2007",[48,1341,1342],{},"13.3",[48,1344,1345],{},"12.8",[48,1347,1348],{},"0.5",[27,1350,1351,1354,1356,1359],{},[48,1352,1353],{},"2004-2008",[48,1355,1334],{},[48,1357,1358],{},"(2.2)",[48,1360,415],{},[27,1362,1363,1366,1369,1372],{},[48,1364,1365],{},"2005-2009",[48,1367,1368],{},"8.6",[48,1370,1371],{},"0.4",[48,1373,1374],{},"8.2",[27,1376,1377,1380,1382,1385],{},[48,1378,1379],{},"2006-2010",[48,1381,56],{},[48,1383,1384],{},"2.3",[48,1386,1387],{},"7.7",[14,1389,1390,1392],{},[17,1391,703],{}," 前两期涵盖始于前一年 9 月 30 日的五年。第三期涵盖 1966 年 9 月 30 日至 1971 年 12 月 31 日的 63 个月。其他所有期间均为日历年。",[14,1394,1395],{},"第 2 页的其他注释同样适用于本表。",[10,1397,1399],{"id":1398},"内在价值今天和明天","内在价值——今天和明天",[14,1401,1402],{},"尽管伯克希尔的内在价值无法精确计算，但其三大关键支柱中有两个是可以衡量的。查理和我在估算伯克希尔价值时，非常倚重这些数据。",[14,1404,1405],{},"内在价值的第一个组成部分是我们的投资：股票、债券和现金等价物。年末，这些投资的市场价值合计 1,580 亿美元。",[14,1407,1408],{},"保险浮存金——我们在保险业务中临时持有的、并不属于我们的资金——为我们的投资提供了 660 亿美元的资金来源。只要保险承保能够盈亏平衡——也就是说，我们收取的保费等于我们发生的赔付损失和费用——这些钱就是\"免费\"的。当然，承保结果变化无常，在盈利和亏损之间不规则地摆动。然而，纵观伯克希尔的全部历史，我们的承保一直保持着可观的盈利，我也预期未来平均而言能够维持盈亏平衡或更好的成绩。如果做到了这一点，我们所有的投资——无论是由浮存金还是留存收益提供资金的——都可以视为伯克希尔股东价值的组成部分。",[14,1410,1411],{},"内在价值的第二个组成部分是来自投资和保险承保之外的收益。这些收益来自我们的 68 家非保险公司，详细列表见第 106 页。伯克希尔早年专注于投资这一面。但在过去二十年间，我们越来越重视拓展来自非保险业务的收益，这一做法将持续下去。",[14,1413,1414],{},"下面的表格展示了这种转变。第一张表从 1970 年开始（即我们进入保险业三年后），每隔十年列出了每股投资金额。表中不包括归属于少数股东权益的投资。",[21,1416,1417,1433],{},[24,1418,1419],{},[27,1420,1421,1424,1427,1430],{},[30,1422,1423],{},"年末",[30,1425,1426],{},"每股投资额",[30,1428,1429],{},"期间",[30,1431,1432],{},"每股投资额年复合增长率",[43,1434,1435,1446,1459,1472,1485],{},[27,1436,1437,1439,1442,1444],{},[48,1438,119],{},[48,1440,1441],{},"$ 66",[48,1443],{},[48,1445],{},[27,1447,1448,1450,1453,1456],{},[48,1449,257],{},[48,1451,1452],{},"754",[48,1454,1455],{},"1970-1980",[48,1457,1458],{},"27.5%",[27,1460,1461,1463,1466,1469],{},[48,1462,392],{},[48,1464,1465],{},"7,798",[48,1467,1468],{},"1980-1990",[48,1470,1471],{},"26.3%",[27,1473,1474,1476,1479,1482],{},[48,1475,529],{},[48,1477,1478],{},"50,229",[48,1480,1481],{},"1990-2000",[48,1483,1484],{},"20.5%",[27,1486,1487,1489,1492,1495],{},[48,1488,662],{},[48,1490,1491],{},"94,730",[48,1493,1494],{},"2000-2010",[48,1496,1497],{},"6.6%",[14,1499,1500],{},"尽管 40 年间我们每股投资的年复合增长率高达 19.9%，但由于我们将重心转向用资金收购经营性企业，增长速度已经明显放缓。",[14,1502,1503],{},"这种转变的回报体现在下表中，它展示了我们非保险业务的收益是如何增长的，同样以每股为基础，并扣除了归属于少数股东权益的部分。",[21,1505,1506,1520],{},[24,1507,1508],{},[27,1509,1510,1512,1515,1517],{},[30,1511,32],{},[30,1513,1514],{},"每股税前收益",[30,1516,1429],{},[30,1518,1519],{},"每股税前收益年复合增长率",[43,1521,1522,1533,1545,1557,1569],{},[27,1523,1524,1526,1529,1531],{},[48,1525,119],{},[48,1527,1528],{},"$ 2.87",[48,1530],{},[48,1532],{},[27,1534,1535,1537,1540,1542],{},[48,1536,257],{},[48,1538,1539],{},"19.01",[48,1541,1455],{},[48,1543,1544],{},"20.8%",[27,1546,1547,1549,1552,1554],{},[48,1548,392],{},[48,1550,1551],{},"102.58",[48,1553,1468],{},[48,1555,1556],{},"18.4%",[27,1558,1559,1561,1564,1566],{},[48,1560,529],{},[48,1562,1563],{},"918.66",[48,1565,1481],{},[48,1567,1568],{},"24.5%",[27,1570,1571,1573,1576,1578],{},[48,1572,662],{},[48,1574,1575],{},"5,926.04",[48,1577,1494],{},[48,1579,1484],{},[14,1581,1582],{},"40 年来，我们非保险业务每股税前收益的年复合增长率为 21.0%。同期，伯克希尔的股价年复合增长率为 22.1%。随着时间推移，你会发现我们的股价走势与伯克希尔的投资和收益变动大致同步。市场价格和内在价值走的往往是截然不同的路——有时候会岔开很长一段时间——但最终它们会汇合。",[14,1584,1585],{},"内在价值的计算还涉及第三个更主观的因素，它可能是正面的，也可能是负面的：未来留存收益的使用效率。我们和许多其他企业一样，未来十年留存的收益很可能等于甚至超过我们目前投入的资本。有些公司会把留存的每一美元变成五毛钱，而另一些公司则能把它变成两美元。",[14,1587,1588],{},"要合理估计一家公司的内在价值，就必须把\"他们将拿这些钱做什么\"这个因素，和前面\"我们现在拥有什么\"的计算一起评估——无论是我们还是任何人都如此。这是因为当管理层将外部投资者在公司收益中所占的份额进行再投资时，外部投资者只能干瞪眼。如果预期 CEO 能把再投资这件事做好，再投资前景就会给公司的当前价值加分；如果 CEO 的能力或动机令人起疑，当前价值就得打折扣。这种差异可能是天壤之别。1960 年代末，交到西尔斯百货（Sears Roebuck）或蒙哥马利沃德（Montgomery Ward）CEO 手里的每一美元，与交给山姆·沃尔顿（Sam Walton）手里的每一美元，命运截然不同。",[14,1590,1591],{},"现在，让我们来审视伯克希尔的四大板块。每个板块的资产负债表和收益特征彼此迥然不同，把它们混在一起会妨碍分析。因此，我们将它们作为四项独立业务来呈现，查理和我也正是这么看待它们的。",[14,1593,1594],{},"我们先来看保险业务，这是伯克希尔的核心业务，也是多年来推动公司扩张的发动机。",[10,1596,1597],{"id":1597},"保险业务",[14,1599,1600],{},"财产意外险保险公司预先收取保费，事后支付理赔。在极端情况下，例如某些工伤事故引发的索赔，赔付可以延续数十年。这种\"先收钱、后付款\"的模式使我们持有大量资金——我们称之为\"浮存金\"——这些钱最终要归还给别人。在此期间，我们可以用这些浮存金为伯克希尔进行投资。尽管个别保单和理赔来来去去，但我们持有的浮存金相对于保费收入保持着惊人的稳定。因此，随着业务增长，浮存金也水涨船高。我们是怎么增长的，请看下表：",[21,1602,1603,1612],{},[24,1604,1605],{},[27,1606,1607,1609],{},[30,1608,1423],{},[30,1610,1611],{},"浮存金（百万美元）",[43,1613,1614,1621,1628,1635,1642],{},[27,1615,1616,1618],{},[48,1617,119],{},[48,1619,1620],{},"$ 39",[27,1622,1623,1625],{},[48,1624,257],{},[48,1626,1627],{},"237",[27,1629,1630,1632],{},[48,1631,392],{},[48,1633,1634],{},"1,632",[27,1636,1637,1639],{},[48,1638,529],{},[48,1640,1641],{},"27,871",[27,1643,1644,1646],{},[48,1645,662],{},[48,1647,1648],{},"65,832",[14,1650,1651,1652,1655,1656,1659],{},"如果我们收取的保费超过了运营费用和最终赔付损失的总和，我们就录得承保利润，这笔利润会加到浮存金带来的投资收益之上。当这种情况发生时，我们不仅能免费使用这笔资金，更妙的是，还因为持有它而",[753,1653,1654],{},"获得","报酬。可惜，所有保险公司都渴望实现这个美好结果，导致了激烈的竞争。在大多数年份，竞争激烈到整个财产意外险行业整体出现严重的承保",[753,1657,1658],{},"亏损","。这笔亏损实际上就是行业为持有浮存金所付出的代价。例如，州立农业保险（State Farm）是目前全美最大的保险公司，经营管理也很出色，但在过去十年中有七年出现了承保亏损，累计承保损失超过 200 亿美元。",[14,1661,1662],{},"在伯克希尔，我们已经连续八年实现承保盈利，这一时期的承保利润合计 170 亿美元。我相信，在未来大多数年份——虽然肯定不是每一年——我们都将继续保持承保盈利。如果做到了这一点，我们的浮存金将比免费还好。好比有人把 660 亿美元存在我们这里，还付给我们一笔费用请我们保管，然后让我们拿这笔钱去投资赚钱，我们自然获益匪浅。",[14,1664,1665,1666,1669],{},"我要再次强调，零成本的浮存金并",[753,1667,1668],{},"不是","整个财产意外险行业能够预期的结果。在大多数年份，行业保费不足以覆盖理赔加费用。因此，几十年来保险业有形资本的回报率远远落后于美国全行业的平均水平，这种令人遗憾的表现几乎可以肯定会延续下去。伯克希尔之所以拥有出色的经济效益，只是因为我们有一些卓越的管理者在经营一些非同寻常的业务。GEICO 的故事我们已经讲过了，但我们还有另外两家非常大的保险公司，以及一批规模较小的公司，每一家都以自己的方式闪闪发光。",[14,1671,1672],{},"我们还有另一家保险业的强者——通用再保险（General Re），由泰德·蒙特罗斯（Tad Montross）执掌。",[14,1674,1675,1676,1679],{},"从根本上说，健全的保险经营需要遵循四条准则：(1) 了解可能导致保单产生赔付的",[753,1677,1678],{},"所有","风险；(2) 保守地评估任何风险实际造成损失的概率以及一旦发生的可能成本；(3) 设定的保费水平在覆盖预期赔付成本和运营费用后，平均而言能够产生利润；(4) 如果拿不到合理的保费就愿意放弃这笔生意。",[14,1681,1682],{},"许多保险公司前三条都能通过考验，却在第四条上栽了跟头。华尔街的催逼、代理机构和经纪人的压力，或者仅仅是一位睾酮驱动的 CEO 不甘接受保费规模缩水——这些因素导致太多保险公司以不合理的低价承保。\"别人都在做，我们也得跟上\"——这种想法在任何行业都是祸根，但在保险业尤为致命。",[14,1684,1685],{},"泰德始终恪守这四条准则，他的业绩就是明证。在他的领导下，通用再保险的巨额浮存金不仅是免费的，还有承保利润。我们预计平均而言这种状态将继续保持。",[14,1687,1688,1689,1692],{},"此前在估算伯克希尔的常规盈利能力时，我们对未来的投资收益做了三项调整（但",[753,1690,1691],{},"没有","包括我刚才说的未分配收益因素）。",[14,1694,1695],{},"第一项调整是明确负面的。去年我们讨论过五笔大额固定收益投资，它们对我们的报告收益贡献了可观的金额。其中之一——我们的瑞士再保险（Swiss Re）票据——已于 2011 年初被赎回；另外两笔——我们持有的高盛（Goldman Sachs）和通用电气（General Electric）优先股——很可能在年底前被赎回。通用电气有权在 10 月份赎回我们的优先股，并已表明了这一意向。高盛有权在提前 30 天通知后赎回我们的优先股，但一直被美联储拦着（感恩哪！），不过美联储恐怕不久后就会给高盛放行了。",[14,1697,1698],{},"这三家公司赎回时都必须向我们支付溢价——合计约 14 亿美元——但所有这些赎回仍然是不受欢迎的。赎回完成后，我们的盈利能力将大幅下降。这是坏消息。",[14,1700,1701],{},"好消息有两个，可以部分抵消。年底时我们持有 380 亿美元的现金等价物，它们在整个 2010 年只赚了微不足道的利息。但总有一天利率会回升。这将为我们的投资收益至少增加 5 亿美元——也许还远不止。货币市场收益率的这种提升不太可能很快到来，但把利率提高纳入\"常规\"盈利能力的估算中是合理的。甚至在利率回升之前，我们也可能碰上好运，找到机会用手中的一部分现金获取不错的回报。那一天对我来说永远不嫌早。套用伊索的话来说：坐在敞篷车里的一个女孩，抵得上电话簿里的五个。",[14,1703,1704],{},"此外，我们目前持有的普通股的股利几乎肯定会增加。最大的增长很可能来自富国银行（Wells Fargo）。美联储——在高盛这件事上帮了我们的忙——过去两年无论银行强弱，一律冻结了主要银行的股利水平。富国银行虽然在整个经济衰退最严重的时期都持续保持繁荣，目前更是拥有强大的财务实力和盈利能力，却被迫维持着人为压低的分红水平。（我们不怪美联储：出于多种原因，在危机期间及其余波中实施全面冻结是合情合理的。）",[14,1706,1707],{},"美联储的限制很可能不久就会解除。届时富国银行就能恢复其股东应得的合理股利政策。到那时，我们预计仅从这一只股票获得的年度股利就将增加好几亿美元。",[14,1709,1710,1711,1714],{},"我们持有的其他公司也很可能会提高股利。1995 年——也就是我们完成可口可乐（Coca-Cola）建仓的次年——可口可乐向我们支付了 8,800 万美元股利。此后每年可口可乐都在提高股息。2011 年我们几乎肯定会从可口可乐收到 3.76 亿美元，比去年增加 2,400 万美元。我预计十年内这 3.76 亿美元将会翻番。到那时，如果我们在可口可乐",[753,1712,1713],{},"年度","收益中所占的份额超过我们当初 13 亿美元投资成本的 100%，我也不会感到惊讶。时间是好生意的朋友。",[14,1716,1717],{},"总的来说，我认为我们的\"常规\"投资收入至少将与 2010 年持平，尽管前面提到的赎回会减少我们 2011 年、也许还有 2012 年的收益。",[14,1719,1720],{},"四年前，我告诉过你们，我们需要增加一位或几位年轻的投资经理，以便在查理、路易和我不在之后接班。当时我们有多位出色的候选人可以立即接任我的 CEO 职务（现在也是如此），但在投资领域还没有合适的后备人选。",[14,1722,1723,1724,1727],{},"很容易找到许多近期业绩出色的投资经理。但过去的业绩虽然重要，在评判未来表现时却不够充分。业绩是",[753,1725,1726],{},"怎样","取得的至关重要，经理人对风险的理解和敏感度也同样关键（风险绝不应该用贝塔系数来衡量，尽管太多学者偏爱这种做法）。在风险评估这个标准上，我们在找一种难以衡量的能力：预判以前从未出现过的经济情景的影响。最后，我们希望找到一个把为伯克希尔工作看得远不只是一份工作的人。",[14,1729,1730],{},"当查理和我见到托德·库姆斯（Todd Combs）时，我们就知道他符合我们的全部要求。托德的薪酬安排与路易相同——一份基本工资加上根据其业绩相对于标普 500 指数的表现而定的奖金。我们已经安排了收入延期和结转机制，以防止忽上忽下的表现获得不当的报酬。对冲基金业曾上演过一些令人发指的行径：普通合伙人（GP）在行情好的时候拿走巨额报酬，而当业绩变差时，拍拍屁股走人，自己赚得盆满钵满，有限合伙人（LP）则把之前的收益全吐了回去。有时候这些 GP 紧接着又迅速发起一只新基金，好让自己马上就能参与未来的利润分成，而不必先弥补过去的亏损。把钱托付给这种人的投资者，该叫\"冤大头\"，而不是\"合伙人\"。",[14,1732,1733],{},"只要我还担任 CEO，我就会继续管理伯克希尔绝大部分的持仓，包括债券和股票。托德初期将管理 10 亿到 30 亿美元的资金，这个规模他每年可以重新调整。他的重点是股票，但不限于此。（基金顾问喜欢要求按\"做多做空\"、\"宏观\"、\"国际股票\"之类的风格框来分类。在伯克希尔，我们只有一个风格框——\"聪明\"。）",[14,1735,1736],{},"随着时间推移，如果找到了合适的人选，我们可能会再增加一两位投资经理。如果这样做的话，每位经理人的绩效薪酬大概 80% 取决于自己管理的投资组合，20% 取决于其他经理人的组合。我们希望建立一种薪酬体系，既能为个人的卓越成果提供丰厚回报，同时也能促进合作而非竞争。",[14,1738,1739],{},"等查理和我不在之后，我们的投资经理将按照 CEO 和董事会规定的方式对整个投资组合负责。因为出色的投资者能为企业收购带来有益的视角，我们希望就可能的收购是否明智征询他们的意见——但不给他们投票权。当然，最终由董事会就任何重大收购做出决策。",[14,1741,1742],{},"一个小注脚：当我们发布托德加盟的新闻稿时，不少评论员指出他是个\"无名之辈\"，并对我们没有找一个\"大牌\"表示困惑。我很好奇，他们中有多少人在 1979 年听说过路易·辛普森？在 1985 年认识阿吉特·贾恩？或者在 1959 年听说过查理·芒格？我们的目标是找到一匹两岁的\"秘书处\"（Secretariat，传奇赛马），而不是一匹十岁的\"海洋饼干\"（Seabiscuit）。（哎呀——对一个 80 岁的 CEO 来说，这个比喻可能不太明智。）",[10,1744,1745],{"id":1745},"金融衍生品",[14,1747,1748],{},"两年前在 2008 年年报中，我告诉你们伯克希尔持有 251 份衍生品合约（不包括子公司运营中使用的合约，如中美能源的，以及通用再保险遗留的少数合约）。如今这个数字是 203 份，变化反映了我们组合中新增了几份合约，以及部分合约被解除或到期。",[14,1750,1751],{},"我们持有的这些头寸——全部由我本人负责——主要分为两大类。我们把这两类头寸都视为类保险活动：我们收取保费，承担别人想要转移的风险。事实上，我们在这些衍生品交易中运用的思维方式和保险业务完全一样。你们还应该了解，我们在签订合约时就预先收到了费用，因此不存在交易对手风险。这一点很重要。",[14,1753,1754],{},"第一类衍生品包括 2004-2008 年间签订的一批合约，约定如果某些高收益率指数中的成份公司发生债券违约，我们需要进行赔付。除极少数例外，我们面临这些风险的期限为五年，每份合约涵盖 100 家公司。",[14,1756,1757],{},"这些合约我们总共收取了 34 亿美元保费。2007 年年报中我第一次向你们介绍这些合约时，我说预计它们将为我们带来\"承保利润\"，即我们的赔付将低于收取的保费。此外，我说我们还将从使用浮存金中获益。",[14,1759,1760],{},"后来的事你们也知道了，我们遭遇了金融恐慌和严重的经济衰退。高收益率指数中有不少公司破产了，我们因此赔付了 25 亿美元。不过，现在我们面临的风险基本已经过去，因为大多数高风险合约已经到期。因此，我们几乎可以确定将像当初预期的那样获得承保利润。此外，在合约存续期间，我们还使用了平均约 20 亿美元的无息浮存金。简而言之，我们收取的保费金额是恰当的，这在三年前经济环境急剧恶化时保护了我们。",[14,1762,1763],{},"我们的另一大类衍生品头寸——合约名称叫\"股票看跌期权\"——是我们为希望对冲美国、英国、欧洲和日本股票价格下跌风险的投资者承保的保险。这些合约与各种股票指数挂钩，如美国的标普 500 指数和英国的富时 100 指数。2004-2008 年间，我们签订了 47 份此类合约，收取了 48 亿美元保费，大多数合约期限为 15 年。对于这些合约，只有到期日当天的指数价格才算数：在此之前无需进行任何赔付。",[14,1765,1766],{},"先更新一下这些合约的最新情况。2010 年下半年，在交易对手的提议下，我们解除了 8 份合约，它们原定于 2021 至 2028 年间到期。我们最初收取的保费为 6.47 亿美元，解约时支付了 4.25 亿美元。因此，我们实现了 2.22 亿美元的收益，而且在大约三年的时间里无息、无限制地使用了那 6.47 亿美元。",[14,1768,1769],{},"2010 年底这些交易之后，我们账上还剩下 39 份股票看跌期权合约。这些合约签订之初，我们总共收到了 42 亿美元保费。",[14,1771,1772],{},"这些合约的未来当然充满不确定性。但这里提供一个观察角度。如果相关指数在合约到期日的价格与 2010 年 12 月 31 日相同——并且汇率不变——我们在 2018 至 2026 年间到期时将需赔付 38 亿美元。你们可以把这个金额称为\"结算价值\"。",[14,1774,1775],{},"然而在我们年末的资产负债表上，这些剩余看跌期权的负债记为 67 亿美元。换句话说，如果相关指数的价格从那天起保持不变，未来几年我们将录得 29 亿美元的收益——即 67 亿美元的负债与 38 亿美元结算价值之间的差额。我相信股票价格很可能会上涨，我们的负债从现在到结算日之间将大幅下降。如果是这样，从当前算起我们的收益将更大。当然，这远非确定的事。",[14,1777,1778],{},"可以确定的是，我们将在平均约 10 年的时间里继续使用剩余的 42 亿美元\"浮存金\"。（这部分浮存金以及高收益合约产生的浮存金都不包含在 660 亿美元的浮存金数字中。）由于资金是可替代的，不妨把其中一部分看作是用来收购 BNSF 铁路的。",[14,1780,1781],{},"正如我以前告诉过你们的，我们几乎所有的衍生品合约都没有提供抵押品的义务——这一事实降低了我们本来能收取的保费。但也正是这一点让我们在金融危机期间感到从容，使我们在那些日子里得以承诺进行一些有利可图的购买。事后看来，放弃一些额外的衍生品保费是完全值得的。",[10,1783,1785],{"id":1784},"报告与误报重要的数字和不重要的数字","报告与误报：重要的数字和不重要的数字",[14,1787,1788],{},"在这封信的前面部分，我列出了查理和我认为对评估伯克希尔价值和衡量其进展有用的一些数字。",[14,1790,1791,1792,1795],{},"下面我们来重点谈谈一个被我们省略的数字，但却是媒体最热衷报道的：净利润。这个数字在大多数公司可能很重要，但在伯克希尔几乎",[753,1793,1794],{},"毫无意义","。不管我们的业务经营得如何，查理和我都可以——完全合法地——让任何一个时期的净利润变成几乎任何我们想要的数字。",[14,1797,1798,1799,1802,1803,1806,1807,1810,1811,1814],{},"我们之所以有这种灵活性，是因为",[753,1800,1801],{},"已实现","的投资损益被纳入了净利润数字，而",[753,1804,1805],{},"未实现","的利得（以及大多数情况下的损失）则被排除在外。比方说，假设伯克希尔某年有 100 亿美元的未实现投资利得增长，同时发生了 10 亿美元的已实现投资损失。我们的净利润——只计入那笔亏损——报出来会",[753,1808,1809],{},"低于","我们的经营收益。如果我们同时在",[753,1812,1813],{},"上一年","有已实现利得，新闻标题可能会宣称我们的收益下降了 X%，而实际上我们的业务可能大大改善了。",[14,1816,1817,1818,1821],{},"如果我们真觉得净利润这个数字重要的话，我们可以定期将已实现利得注入其中——因为我们有大量的未实现利得可供使用，这太容易了。不过请放心，查理和我",[753,1819,1820],{},"从未","因为卖出某只证券会影响我们即将公布的净利润数字而去卖出它。我们都对\"玩数字游戏\"深恶痛绝——这种行为在 1990 年代的美国企业界泛滥成灾，如今虽有所收敛，但并未根绝。",[14,1823,1824],{},"尽管存在一些不足，经营收益总体而言是衡量我们业务状况的合理指标。请忽略我们的净利润数字。法规要求我们向你们报告这个数字。但如果你看到媒体记者揪住它不放，那说明的是他们的水平，而不是我们的表现。",[14,1826,1827],{},"已实现和未实现的损益都完全反映在我们账面价值的计算中。关注账面价值的变化和我们的经营收益走势，你就走对了路。",[14,1829,1830],{},"出于充分的理由，我经常赞扬我们运营经理人取得的成就。然而同样重要的是在总部跟我一起工作的 20 位男女同事（全部在同一个楼层——我们有意保持这一点！）。",[14,1832,1833],{},"这个团队高效地处理大量 SEC 及其他监管要求，整理多达 14,097 页的联邦所得税申报表以及各州和海外税表，回复无数的股东和媒体咨询，编制年度报告，筹备全美最大的年度股东大会，协调董事会活动——还有很多很多。",[14,1835,1836],{},"他们以令人难以置信的效率和愉快的态度处理所有这些事务，让我的日子轻松而快乐。他们的工作远不止与伯克希尔业务直接相关的事项：他们要跟 48 所大学（从 200 所申请者中选出）打交道，安排这些大学本学年选送学生来奥马哈跟我共度一天；他们还要处理我收到的各种各样的请求、安排我的差旅、甚至帮我买午餐的汉堡包。没有哪位 CEO 比我更有福气了。",[14,1838,1839],{},"我衷心感谢这支总部团队，他们也值得你们的感谢。4 月 30 日来参加我们的\"资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节\"，当面告诉他们吧。",[14,1841,1842],{},"沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,1844,1845],{},"董事长",[14,1847,1848],{},"2011 年 2 月 26 日",[10,1850,1851],{"id":1851},"致经理人备忘录",[14,1853,1854,1857],{},[17,1855,1856],{},"收件人："," 伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下经理人（\"全明星\"团队）",[14,1859,1860,1863],{},[17,1861,1862],{},"抄送："," 伯克希尔董事会",[14,1865,1866,1869],{},[17,1867,1868],{},"发件人："," 沃伦·E·巴菲特",[14,1871,1872,1875],{},[17,1873,1874],{},"日期："," 2010 年 7 月 26 日",[14,1877,1878],{},"这是我每两年写一次的信，再次强调伯克希尔的首要原则，并请各位在继任规划方面给予帮助（是你们的继任，不是我的！）。",[14,1880,1881,1882,1885],{},"当务之急是，我们所有人都要继续不遗余力地维护伯克希尔的声誉。我们做不到完美，但我们可以尽力而为。正如我 25 年多来在这些备忘录中反复说的：\"我们可以承受亏损——甚至是巨额亏损。但我们不能失去声誉——哪怕是一丝一毫的声誉。\"我们",[753,1883,1884],{},"必须","以更高的标准衡量每一个行为：不仅要看它是否合法，还要看它是否经得起一位不友好但聪明的记者在全国性报纸头版上的审视。",[14,1887,1888,1889,1892],{},"有时你的同事会说\"别人都在这么做\"。如果这是一项商业行为的主要理由，那几乎总是一个糟糕的理由。在评估道德决策时，它更是完全不可接受的。每当有人抛出这句话当理由，他们实际上是在说自己想不出一个",[753,1890,1891],{},"好","理由。如果有人给出这样的解释，告诉他们去试试在记者或法官面前用这套说辞，看看能走多远。",[14,1894,1895],{},"如果你看到什么事情的合理性或合法性让你犹豫不决，请务必给我打个电话。不过话说回来，如果某个行动引发了这种犹豫，那它很可能已经太接近底线了，应该放弃。球场中央有的是钱可赚。如果某个行动是否接近底线存在疑问，就直接当它在底线之外，然后忘掉它。",[14,1897,1898],{},"同理，如果有任何重大坏消息，请立即告诉我。我能处理坏消息，但我不喜欢在它发酵了一阵子之后再来处理。正是因为不愿立即面对坏消息，所罗门公司（Salomon）的一个原本很容易化解的问题，才演变成了几乎让一家拥有 8,000 名员工的公司倒闭的大祸。",[14,1900,1901],{},"今天在伯克希尔，肯定有人在做一些如果你我知道了会不高兴的事。这是不可避免的：我们现在有 25 万多名员工，这么多人一天之中不发生任何不良行为的可能性为零。但是，只要一发现哪怕最轻微的不妥苗头就立即跳出来处理，我们就能极大地减少此类行为。你在这些问题上的态度——通过言行来传达的——将是你的企业文化如何发展的最重要因素。文化比规章制度更能决定一个组织的行为方式。",[14,1903,1904],{},"在其他方面，想跟我聊什么、聊多少，完全随你。你们每个人都用自己独特的风格把业务经营得一流，不需要我来帮忙。你们唯一需要我批准的事项是：退休后福利的任何变更，以及任何异常巨大的资本支出或收购。",[1906,1907,1910,1916],"section",{"className":1908,"dataFootnotes":740},[1909],"footnotes",[1911,1912,1915],"h2",{"className":1913,"id":739},[1914],"sr-only","Footnotes",[1917,1918,1919],"ol",{},[1920,1921,1923,1924],"li",{"id":1922},"user-content-fn-*","本报告中所有每股数据均指伯克希尔 A 股。B 股的数据为 A 股的 1\u002F1500。 ",[735,1925,1930],{"href":1926,"ariaLabel":1927,"className":1928,"dataFootnoteBackref":740},"#user-content-fnref-*","Back to reference 1",[1929],"data-footnote-backref","↩",{"title":740,"searchDepth":1932,"depth":1932,"links":1933},2,[1934],{"id":739,"depth":1932,"text":1915},"致股东信",null,"2010年巴菲特致股东信，讨论经济复苏、并购交易、股票投资组合表现及美国经济前景","md",{},true,81,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"description":1937},"2010 巴菲特致股东信｜巴菲特","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","buffett\u002Fberkshire\u002F2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin","28s67VMmF1guM9K0U13pjqBAL2CR46-jupIxcO7HAko","buffett",[1950,1954,1958,1962,1965,1968,1971,1975,1978,1981,1985,1988,1991,1995,1998,2001,2005,2008,2011,2015,2018,2021,2025,2028,2031,2035,2038,2041,2045,2048,2051,2055,2058,2061,2065,2068,2071,2075,2078,2081,2085,2088,2091,2095,2098,2101,2105,2108,2111,2115,2118,2121,2125,2128,2131,2135,2138,2141,2145,2148,2151,2155,2158,2161,2165,2168,2171,2175,2178,2181,2185,2188,2191,2195,2198,2201,2205,2208,2211,2215,2218,2221,2225,2228,2231,2235,2238,2241,2245,2248,2251,2255,2258,2261,2265,2268,2271,2275,2278,2281,2285,2288,2292,2295,2299,2302,2306,2309,2313,2316,2320,2323,2327,2330,2334,2337,2341,2344,2348,2351,2355,2358,2362,2365,2369,2372,2376,2379,2383,2386,2390,2393,2397,2400,2404,2407,2411,2414,2418,2421,2425,2428,2432,2435,2439,2442,2446,2449,2453,2456,2460,2463,2467,2470,2474,2477,2481,2484,2488,2491,2495,2498,2502,2505,2509,2512,2516,2519,2523,2526,2530,2533,2537,2540,2544,2547,2551,2554,2558,2561,2565,2568,2572,2575,2579,2582,2586,2589,2593,2596,2600,2603,2607,2610,2611,2614,2618,2621,2625,2628,2632,2635,2639,2642,2646,2649,2653,2656,2660,2663,2667,2670,2674,2677,2681,2684,2688,2691,2695,2698,2702,2705,2709,2712,2716,2719,2723,2726,2730,2733,2737,2740,2744,2747,2751,2755,2759,2763,2767,2771,2775,2779,2783,2787,2791,2795,2799,2803,2807,2811,2815,2819,2823,2827,2831,2835,2839,2843,2847,2851,2855,2859,2863,2867,2871,2875,2879,2883,2887,2891,2895,2899,2903,2907,2911,2915,2919,2923,2927,2931,2935,2939,2943,2947],{"title":1951,"slug":1952,"category":1935,"order":1953},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi",1,{"title":1955,"slug":1956,"category":1957,"order":1953},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":1959,"slug":1960,"category":1961,"order":1953},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":1963,"slug":1964,"category":1935,"order":1932},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":1966,"slug":1967,"category":1957,"order":1932},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":1969,"slug":1970,"category":1961,"order":1932},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1972,"slug":1973,"category":1935,"order":1974},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":1976,"slug":1977,"category":1957,"order":1974},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":1979,"slug":1980,"category":1961,"order":1974},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1982,"slug":1983,"category":1935,"order":1984},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":1986,"slug":1987,"category":1957,"order":1984},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":1989,"slug":1990,"category":1961,"order":1984},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":1992,"slug":1993,"category":1935,"order":1994},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":1996,"slug":1997,"category":1957,"order":1994},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":1999,"slug":2000,"category":1961,"order":1994},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2002,"slug":2003,"category":1935,"order":2004},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":2006,"slug":2007,"category":1957,"order":2004},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":2009,"slug":2010,"category":1961,"order":2004},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2012,"slug":2013,"category":1935,"order":2014},"1961年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2328,"slug":2329,"category":1957,"order":2326},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2331,"slug":2332,"category":1935,"order":2333},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2335,"slug":2336,"category":1957,"order":2333},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2338,"slug":2339,"category":1935,"order":2340},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2342,"slug":2343,"category":1957,"order":2340},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2345,"slug":2346,"category":1935,"order":2347},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2349,"slug":2350,"category":1957,"order":2347},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2352,"slug":2353,"category":1935,"order":2354},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2356,"slug":2357,"category":1957,"order":2354},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2359,"slug":2360,"category":1935,"order":2361},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2363,"slug":2364,"category":1957,"order":2361},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2366,"slug":2367,"category":1935,"order":2368},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2370,"slug":2371,"category":1957,"order":2368},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2373,"slug":2374,"category":1935,"order":2375},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2377,"slug":2378,"category":1957,"order":2375},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2380,"slug":2381,"category":1935,"order":2382},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2384,"slug":2385,"category":1957,"order":2382},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2387,"slug":2388,"category":1935,"order":2389},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2391,"slug":2392,"category":1957,"order":2389},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2394,"slug":2395,"category":1935,"order":2396},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2398,"slug":2399,"category":1957,"order":2396},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2401,"slug":2402,"category":1935,"order":2403},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2405,"slug":2406,"category":1957,"order":2403},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2408,"slug":2409,"category":1935,"order":2410},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2412,"slug":2413,"category":1957,"order":2410},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2415,"slug":2416,"category":1935,"order":2417},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2419,"slug":2420,"category":1957,"order":2417},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2422,"slug":2423,"category":1935,"order":2424},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2426,"slug":2427,"category":1957,"order":2424},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2429,"slug":2430,"category":1935,"order":2431},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2433,"slug":2434,"category":1957,"order":2431},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2436,"slug":2437,"category":1935,"order":2438},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2440,"slug":2441,"category":1957,"order":2438},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2443,"slug":2444,"category":1935,"order":2445},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2447,"slug":2448,"category":1957,"order":2445},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2450,"slug":2451,"category":1935,"order":2452},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2454,"slug":2455,"category":1957,"order":2452},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2457,"slug":2458,"category":1935,"order":2459},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2461,"slug":2462,"category":1957,"order":2459},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2464,"slug":2465,"category":1935,"order":2466},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2468,"slug":2469,"category":1957,"order":2466},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2471,"slug":2472,"category":1935,"order":2473},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2475,"slug":2476,"category":1957,"order":2473},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2478,"slug":2479,"category":1935,"order":2480},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2482,"slug":2483,"category":1957,"order":2480},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2485,"slug":2486,"category":1935,"order":2487},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2489,"slug":2490,"category":1957,"order":2487},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2492,"slug":2493,"category":1935,"order":2494},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2496,"slug":2497,"category":1957,"order":2494},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2499,"slug":2500,"category":1935,"order":2501},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2503,"slug":2504,"category":1957,"order":2501},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2506,"slug":2507,"category":1935,"order":2508},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2510,"slug":2511,"category":1957,"order":2508},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2513,"slug":2514,"category":1935,"order":2515},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2517,"slug":2518,"category":1957,"order":2515},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2520,"slug":2521,"category":1935,"order":2522},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2524,"slug":2525,"category":1957,"order":2522},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2527,"slug":2528,"category":1935,"order":2529},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2531,"slug":2532,"category":1957,"order":2529},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2534,"slug":2535,"category":1935,"order":2536},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2538,"slug":2539,"category":1957,"order":2536},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2541,"slug":2542,"category":1935,"order":2543},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2545,"slug":2546,"category":1957,"order":2543},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2548,"slug":2549,"category":1935,"order":2550},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2552,"slug":2553,"category":1957,"order":2550},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2555,"slug":2556,"category":1935,"order":2557},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2559,"slug":2560,"category":1957,"order":2557},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2562,"slug":2563,"category":1935,"order":2564},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2566,"slug":2567,"category":1957,"order":2564},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2569,"slug":2570,"category":1935,"order":2571},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2573,"slug":2574,"category":1957,"order":2571},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2576,"slug":2577,"category":1935,"order":2578},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2580,"slug":2581,"category":1957,"order":2578},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2583,"slug":2584,"category":1935,"order":2585},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2587,"slug":2588,"category":1957,"order":2585},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2590,"slug":2591,"category":1935,"order":2592},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2594,"slug":2595,"category":1957,"order":2592},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2597,"slug":2598,"category":1935,"order":2599},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2601,"slug":2602,"category":1957,"order":2599},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2604,"slug":2605,"category":1935,"order":2606},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2608,"slug":2609,"category":1957,"order":2606},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":5,"slug":1945,"category":1935,"order":1941},{"title":2612,"slug":2613,"category":1957,"order":1941},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2615,"slug":2616,"category":1935,"order":2617},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2619,"slug":2620,"category":1957,"order":2617},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2622,"slug":2623,"category":1935,"order":2624},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2626,"slug":2627,"category":1957,"order":2624},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2629,"slug":2630,"category":1935,"order":2631},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2633,"slug":2634,"category":1957,"order":2631},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2636,"slug":2637,"category":1935,"order":2638},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":2640,"slug":2641,"category":1957,"order":2638},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":2643,"slug":2644,"category":1935,"order":2645},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":2647,"slug":2648,"category":1957,"order":2645},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":2650,"slug":2651,"category":1935,"order":2652},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":2654,"slug":2655,"category":1957,"order":2652},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":2657,"slug":2658,"category":1935,"order":2659},"2015 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