[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1631},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":95,"library-sidebar-dao":1097,"library-sidebar-models":1399},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":81,"date":82,"description":83,"extension":84,"meta":85,"navigation":86,"order":87,"path":88,"seo":89,"seoDescription":83,"seoTitle":90,"slug":91,"stem":92,"__hash__":93,"_collection":94},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si.md","巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":78},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,39,42,45,48,51,54,57,60,65,68,71],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特1957年最看好的股票油气资产管理公司",[14,15,16],"p",{},"",[14,18,19],{},"油气资产管理公司(O&G, Oil and Gas Property Management,Inc.)",[14,21,22],{},"我选择的一个更合适的标题是\"我最喜欢的通货膨胀对冲\"。如果通货膨胀持续高涨，O&G 很可能成为一种投资工具，为投资者带来与1940 年代初高杠杆化的信托投资和权证一样的超强表现。",[14,24,25],{},"O&G 由EmpireTrust 公司的附属集团于1953 年成立，旨在购买和管理油气相关资产。O&G 的管理水平是最高的，Empire 在石油业务方面的声誉和经验无疑具有相当大的价值。收购石油资产需要用大笔石油销售款支付，早年收入的很大一部分用于支付这些款项。这种收购方法类似于使用抵押贷款来支持购买大额房产，租金收入除去运营开支所需的部分，都用于偿付抵押贷款。税法允许将所有付款作为成本直接从收入中扣除，从而极大地促进了这种方法在石油领域的应用。从会计角度看，其结果是，在资产净值大幅增长的同时，总收益却非常少。因此，财务报表并不能准确显示O&G 公司的经营状况，有兴趣的读者应该研究公司的年度报告。",[14,27,28],{},"O&G 公司的资本金最初是通过出售附带30 万股股票的1000 万收益债券筹集的。这次发行在华尔街的房地产投资信托基金等机构的大宗交易中表现出色。发行的承销费约为0.25%。另外还有8 万股普通股出售给了承销集团，据说EmpireTrust 在一家子公司拥有5 万多股。认股权证和期权的大额发行明显缺失管理。",[14,30,31],{},"O&G 公司的资本金已于1954 年底投入。因此，与目前较高的地下石油价格相比，该公司以更合理的方式收购了其石油财产。下表显示了公司的可观储量，并说明了即使石油和天然气价格不上涨，少量普通股发行的动态可能性。这些数字是基于1955 年的年度报告，据我们了解，自那时以来几乎没有变化。",[14,33,34],{},[35,36],"img",{"alt":37,"src":38},"","\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_-6206772111762194560.png",[14,40,41],{},"支付股票和债券的净收入，反映了总收入中用来的清偿石油收购款和贷款的金额。债券是收益债券(income bonds)，预计在大部分石油收购款清偿之前不会支付利息，但利息将累计。因此，可能需要大约1500 万美元来偿还债券及其利息。当然，经营费用必须从表中最后一栏的总价值中扣除，在石油设备占石油储量一半的情况下，运营费用将超过平均水平。在扣除3500 万美元的运营费用和可能的税费后，仍有可能产生4000 万美元的普通股价值。未来的收购可能会使这一数字进一步增加。",[14,43,44],{},"而38 万股普通股的总市值仅为约500 万美元，这使得计算结果令人着迷。石油价格每桶上涨15 美分或天然气价格每MCF 上涨1 美分，就相当于普通股的全部市值。如果石油价格在未来几年内每桶上涨50 美分，其价值收益几乎相当于当前普通股总市值的400%。",[14,46,47],{},"1955 年底，公司在38 万股普通股分红之前，需要支付约4900 万美元的石油付款和约1700 万美元的贷款",[14,49,50],{},"和债券。然而，3300 多万美元的付款投资于一项资产，必须指出的是，该付款只是特定资产的支付义务，而不是公司的义务。其余付款不到1600 万美元，仅1955 年就减少了400 万美元。目前，这些付款的平均支付期可能不到三年。",[14,52,53],{},"将O&G 与其更知名的同类公司ProducingProperties,Inc.进行比较是非常有趣的。尽管该公司直到1955 年初才开始运营，但也是以大约1000 万资本金起家的。最近，PP 公司的日产量约为2200 桶，而O&G 公司的日产量超过7000 桶，其净储量也不到O&G 公司的1\u002F3。另一方面，他们只投资了大约50%的资本金，这并不意味着他们的投资工作做得较差，只是他们起步较晚而已。然而，PP 公司普通股的市值约为1400 万美元，我们认为其价值和潜力低于以500 万美元市值的O&G 公司。如果O&G 的估值与之相同，则意味着每股价格将超过35 美元。",[14,55,56],{},"O&G 公司还拥有也门开发公司50%股份，该公司在也门4 万平方英里特许经营权的土地上拥有2\u002F3 权益，其中包括一大片含油盆地。尽管苏伊士动乱无疑会推迟对该地区的勘探，但地质报告是有利的。O&G 公司最大的资产卷入了天然气价格诉讼案，从而抵消了这一潜在的利好因素。O&G 的立场一直未得到FPC 的支持：然而此事现已提交法院审理。",[14,58,59],{},"O&G 普通股在场外交易市场上的价格约为14 美元。如果通胀持续并且目前的石油价格得以维持，该股的表现应该会很好。在扣除6500 万美元的债务后，这些石油和天然气总估计价值为1.5 亿美元的情况下(5 亿方天然气价值0.5 亿+0.38 亿桶石油价值1 亿)，500 万美元的普通股市值似乎提供了比损失更高的盈利机会。对O&G 的小额投资，应该能够达到对无杠杆化的石油控股企业数倍投资所能达到的回报效果，而投资者所面临的最大损失概率则要小得多。",[14,61,62],{},[35,63],{"alt":37,"src":64},"\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_-5840460802653110579.png",[14,66,67],{},"1952年巴菲特完成卡耐基课程认证",[14,69,70],{},"该课程包括高效演讲，领导力训练，赢得朋友和影响他人的艺术，它锻炼了巴菲特的沟通能力。",[14,72,73,74],{},"巴菲特：",[75,76,77],"strong",{},"我们会做出种种疯狂的事情来跳出舒适区，所以我们会站在桌子上做各种事情。如果我没有完成该课程，我的人生会完全不同。所以在我的办公室看不到本科和硕士学位证书，但会看到我在卡内基课程中获得的小小证书。",{"title":37,"searchDepth":79,"depth":79,"links":80},2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特推荐油气资产管理公司，将其作为通胀对冲工具，分析其高杠杆资产收购模式与油价上涨的收益潜力。","md",{},true,4,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":5,"description":83},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si","R2P1QOkGfulhGwatFtecSuQ9UNBBMW1IQg2YojAJdkM","buffett",[96,101,104,108,111,114,117,121,124,127,130,131,134,138,141,144,148,151,154,158,161,164,168,171,174,178,181,184,188,191,194,198,201,204,208,211,214,218,221,224,228,231,234,238,241,244,248,251,254,258,261,264,268,271,274,278,281,284,288,291,294,298,301,304,308,311,314,318,321,324,328,331,334,338,341,344,348,351,354,358,361,364,368,371,374,378,381,384,388,391,394,398,401,404,408,411,414,418,421,424,428,431,435,438,442,445,449,452,456,459,463,466,470,473,477,480,484,487,491,494,498,501,505,508,512,515,519,522,526,529,533,536,540,543,547,550,554,557,561,564,568,571,575,578,582,585,589,592,596,599,603,606,610,613,617,620,624,627,631,634,638,641,645,648,652,655,659,662,666,669,673,676,680,683,687,690,694,697,701,704,708,711,715,718,722,725,729,732,736,739,743,746,750,753,757,760,764,767,771,774,778,781,785,788,792,795,799,802,806,809,813,816,820,823,827,830,834,837,841,844,848,851,855,858,862,865,869,872,876,879,883,886,890,893,897,901,905,909,913,917,921,925,929,933,937,941,945,949,953,957,961,965,969,973,977,981,985,989,993,997,1001,1005,1009,1013,1017,1021,1025,1029,1033,1037,1041,1045,1049,1053,1057,1061,1065,1069,1073,1077,1081,1085,1089,1093],{"title":97,"slug":98,"category":99,"order":100},"1956 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":149,"slug":150,"category":81,"order":147},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":152,"slug":153,"category":107,"order":147},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":155,"slug":156,"category":99,"order":157},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":159,"slug":160,"category":81,"order":157},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":162,"slug":163,"category":107,"order":157},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":165,"slug":166,"category":99,"order":167},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":169,"slug":170,"category":81,"order":167},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":172,"slug":173,"category":107,"order":167},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":175,"slug":176,"category":99,"order":177},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":179,"slug":180,"category":81,"order":177},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":182,"slug":183,"category":107,"order":177},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":185,"slug":186,"category":99,"order":187},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":189,"slug":190,"category":81,"order":187},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":192,"slug":193,"category":107,"order":187},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":195,"slug":196,"category":99,"order":197},"1962年中 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发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":222,"slug":223,"category":107,"order":217},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":225,"slug":226,"category":99,"order":227},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":229,"slug":230,"category":81,"order":227},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":232,"slug":233,"category":107,"order":227},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":235,"slug":236,"category":99,"order":237},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":239,"slug":240,"category":81,"order":237},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":242,"slug":243,"category":107,"order":237},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":245,"slug":246,"category":99,"order":247},"1964 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巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":660,"slug":661,"category":81,"order":658},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":663,"slug":664,"category":99,"order":665},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":667,"slug":668,"category":81,"order":665},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":670,"slug":671,"category":99,"order":672},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":674,"slug":675,"category":81,"order":672},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":677,"slug":678,"category":99,"order":679},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":681,"slug":682,"category":81,"order":679},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":684,"slug":685,"category":99,"order":686},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":688,"slug":689,"category":81,"order":686},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":691,"slug":692,"category":99,"order":693},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":695,"slug":696,"category":81,"order":693},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":698,"slug":699,"category":99,"order":700},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":702,"slug":703,"category":81,"order":700},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":705,"slug":706,"category":99,"order":707},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":709,"slug":710,"category":81,"order":707},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":712,"slug":713,"category":99,"order":714},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":716,"slug":717,"category":81,"order":714},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":719,"slug":720,"category":99,"order":721},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":723,"slug":724,"category":81,"order":721},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":726,"slug":727,"category":99,"order":728},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":730,"slug":731,"category":81,"order":728},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":733,"slug":734,"category":99,"order":735},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":737,"slug":738,"category":81,"order":735},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":740,"slug":741,"category":99,"order":742},"2008 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巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":800,"slug":801,"category":81,"order":798},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":803,"slug":804,"category":99,"order":805},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":807,"slug":808,"category":81,"order":805},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":810,"slug":811,"category":99,"order":812},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":814,"slug":815,"category":81,"order":812},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":817,"slug":818,"category":99,"order":819},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":821,"slug":822,"category":81,"order":819},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":824,"slug":825,"category":99,"order":826},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":828,"slug":829,"category":81,"order":826},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":831,"slug":832,"category":99,"order":833},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":835,"slug":836,"category":81,"order":833},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":838,"slug":839,"category":99,"order":840},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":842,"slug":843,"category":81,"order":840},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":845,"slug":846,"category":99,"order":847},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":849,"slug":850,"category":81,"order":847},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":852,"slug":853,"category":99,"order":854},"2022 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