[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1647},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":111,"library-sidebar-dao":1113,"library-sidebar-models":1415},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":97,"date":98,"description":99,"extension":100,"meta":101,"navigation":102,"order":103,"path":104,"seo":105,"seoDescription":99,"seoTitle":106,"slug":107,"stem":108,"__hash__":109,"_collection":110},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico.md","巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":93},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,48,51,54,57,60,63,69,72,75,78,81,84,87,90],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特1976年巴菲特谈geico",[14,15,16],"p",{},"1976 年7 月22 日",[14,18,19],{},"致：Mr.George D.Young 地址：National Indemnity Co., 3024 Harney Street, Omaha，Nebraska 68131.",[14,21,22],{},"Dear George：",[14,24,25],{},"非常感谢您7 月19 日关于GEICO 保险的备忘录，该备忘录很好地总结了我们正在讨论的特定财产险合约的相关问题，以及与GEICO 任何类型的再保险相关的一般问题。",[14,27,28],{},"我仍然愿意进一步探讨GEICO 的财产险合约，如果他们随后决定该合约符合他们的需求，今天我向JackByrne 承诺，我们将从他们的全部保单中分保1%的配额份额。从0.8%提高到1%的配额是根据他的要求，以帮助他在明天的股东大会上达到25%的目标。",[14,30,31],{},"我认为整体配额份额保险是一项可以接受但并不令人兴奋的业务。显然，在正常情况下，我们不会接受1%这样的再保险份额，因为这将使其成为我们账簿上迄今为止最大的再保险合约，并且涉及巨大的风险以及有限的盈利前景。我也不喜欢将我们所持资金的利息收入向GEICO 提供贷款。实际上，我们正在使该合同成为再保险部门规模最大的合同，而合同条款却使其吸引力远低于我们的大多数其他保险合同。",[14,33,34],{},"然而，我有三个理由接受配额份额保险安排这一不同寻常的巨大份额合约，这些理由同样适用于我在财产险合约中的利益。",[14,36,37],{},"1，我希望这不是一个支配因素，但我确实有一些感情上的原因希望GEICO 保险能够生存下去，GEICO 已经列举了所有的刚性理由，如国家财政担保基金等等。我刚刚从我桌子最下面的抽屉里拿出了一份1951 年底我21岁时的净资产报表。我的净资产为19737 美元，其中13125 美元是GEICO 的股票，那是我第一年开始销售证券，我告诉每个愿意听我话的人，他们应该把能凑到的每一分钱都投入GEICO。许多朋友和亲戚都这样做了，他们的财务状况也因此发生了重大变化。这为我自己的少量积蓄带来了第一笔巨款，同时也为我在奥马哈投资界的声誉带来了更为重要的提升。在早年，当我跟踪该公司的时候，公司的相关人员都非常好。LeoGoodwin 当时在管理公司，他非常乐于助人。Lorimor A.Davidson 更是如此。他亲自鼓励我，并主动提供有关业务的信息，这使我产生了一种深厚的信念，从那以后，我很少再对任何证券问题有这种感觉。",[14,39,40],{},"2，当时我觉得GEICO 在一个将继续增长的庞大的行业中拥有非凡的商业优势。从那时起，他们就再也没有失去过这种优势，在给公司带来利润的同时，还能比国内任何其他汽车保险公司提供给投保人在承担损失带来更大比例的保费折扣。",[14,42,43,47],{},[44,45,46],"strong",{},"我一直对任何行业中的低成本经营者情有独钟，如果你能找到这样一种组合：(1)极其庞大的业务，(2)大致同质化的产品，(3)低成本经营者与行业中所有其他公司在运营成本上的差距巨大时，那么你就找到了真正具有吸引力的投资标的","。25 年前，当我第一次对该公司感兴趣时，这种情况就已经存在，现在依然如此。",[14,49,50],{},"该公司通过糟糕的损失准备金提列，不充分地确认损失成本，成功地使这一竞争优势化为乌有，甚至超过了这一程度。这导致产品定价不当，使本可盈利的产品亏本销售。但需要注意的一点是，该公司并没有失去低成本运营商的地位。",[14,52,53],{},"他们只是对亏损信息管理不善，导致产品定价不当。我相信13%的销售成本率的优势一如既往地重要。我还相信，未来几乎没有其他公司能够实现接近这一数字的成本率。因此。如果管理得当，GEICO 能够把自己从财务悬崖上拉回来，那么管理得当的GEICO 必然会重新繁荣起来。",[14,55,56],{},"我非常喜欢JackByrne 关于减少现行保单的说法。在我看来，这种有纪律的承保方法，而不是一味地去追求规模的增长，很有可能重新构建一种新的局面，即他们可以给投保人返还异常高比例的保险费用，而自己仍能获得丰厚的利润。",[14,58,59],{},"3，因此，关键因素就变成了他们能否度过目前的财务困境。许多媒体包括上周的《时代》周刊都认为他们做不到。直到最近，我才清楚的认识到他们在这方面的可能性。如果他们在提高费率或坚持承保纪律方面有任何闪失，我不认为他们会成功。然而，他们提高费率的幅度，以及他们公布的4 月和5 月的承保结果使我相信，他们的综合比率将在相当短的时间内下降到可以承受的限度。",[14,61,62],{},"如果MarxWallach 先生(哥伦比亚地区保险监管官)因为保险同行不愿意接受他提出的40%再保险计划，而倾向于让公司进入破产管理，即使达到这样好的结果也是不够的。当他在6 月23 日的最后期限之后没有采取任何行动时，这让我相信，他不会贸然终止一个基本经济逻辑仍然决定其拥有光明未来的企业。**当他没有因为未达到40%的再保险认购计划而点头进入破产程序时，我相信公司的未来就有了保障。**我当时决定购买股票，这是我可以向您提供的我对公司生存机会评估的最具体证据。",[64,65,66],"blockquote",{},[14,67,68],{},"(保险公司不但要照顾自己还要照顾同行，如果保险公司破产，同行将承接其保单。而监管官要求GEICO 将其40%保单找到同行为其再保险，但同行宁愿GEICO 破产减少一个竞争对手而承担损失，也不愿出手救助。焦头烂额的JackByrne 成功说服所罗门公司为其承销7000 万美元的可转换优先股，同时巴菲特的购买为公司提振信心，27家再保险公司承担了监管要求的再保险保单，GEICO 股价从2 美元大幅上涨至8 美元。JackByrne 砍掉40%业务，卖掉了人寿业务，大幅提高了保费，仅仅保留7 个州和华盛顿特区的业务，GEICO 开始起死回生。)",[14,70,71],{},"因此，George，我将承担决定GEICO 作为一个商业实体生存下去的责任。你应该根据自己的意愿做出任何承保判断，如果我对GEICO 的生存判断错误，那将是我的错，而不是你的错。我不想因为感情用事而失去理智，但我肯定希望我们尽一切努力，提出对我们有商业意义且对他们有用的建议。",[14,73,74],{},"我不想要更多的配额份额，因为我认为从各方面考虑，这些条款对再保险人都太不利了。但是，如果可以签订一份财产合约，其收益前景足以平衡损失风险，那我们就继续干吧。",[14,76,77],{},"真诚的",[14,79,80],{},"沃伦巴菲特",[14,82,83],{},"",[14,85,86],{},"用经济城堡(Economic Castle)描述公司",[14,88,89],{},"用诚实的领主(Honest Lord)描述其管理层",[14,91,92],{},"用宽阔且持久的护城河(Wide & Long-lasting Moat)描述其竞争优势",{"title":94,"searchDepth":95,"depth":95,"links":96},"",2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特致信National Indemnity公司，讨论与GEICO的再保险合作，展示其对保险业务的深度理解与战略布局。","md",{},true,7,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":5,"description":99},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico","8mSa1gjPAoEbruaKL6nU0hPs1DGwrXWMT1AiWTihnu8","buffett",[112,117,120,124,127,130,133,137,140,143,147,150,153,157,160,163,167,170,173,176,177,180,184,187,190,194,197,200,204,207,210,214,217,220,224,227,230,234,237,240,244,247,250,254,257,260,264,267,270,274,277,280,284,287,290,294,297,300,304,307,310,314,317,320,324,327,330,334,337,340,344,347,350,354,357,360,364,367,370,374,377,380,384,387,390,394,397,400,404,407,410,414,417,420,424,427,430,434,437,440,444,447,451,454,458,461,465,468,472,475,479,482,486,489,493,496,500,503,507,510,514,517,521,524,528,531,535,538,542,545,549,552,556,559,563,566,570,573,577,580,584,587,591,594,598,601,605,608,612,615,619,622,626,629,633,636,640,643,647,650,654,657,661,664,668,671,675,678,682,685,689,692,696,699,703,706,710,713,717,720,724,727,731,734,738,741,745,748,752,755,759,762,766,769,773,776,780,783,787,790,794,797,801,804,808,811,815,818,822,825,829,832,836,839,843,846,850,853,857,860,864,867,871,874,878,881,885,888,892,895,899,902,906,909,913,917,921,925,929,933,937,941,945,949,953,957,961,965,969,973,977,981,985,989,993,997,1001,1005,1009,1013,1017,1021,1025,1029,1033,1037,1041,1045,1049,1053,1057,1061,1065,1069,1073,1077,1081,1085,1089,1093,1097,1101,1105,1109],{"title":113,"slug":114,"category":115,"order":116},"1956 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":138,"slug":139,"category":97,"order":136},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":141,"slug":142,"category":123,"order":136},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":144,"slug":145,"category":115,"order":146},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":148,"slug":149,"category":97,"order":146},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":151,"slug":152,"category":123,"order":146},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":154,"slug":155,"category":115,"order":156},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":158,"slug":159,"category":97,"order":156},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":161,"slug":162,"category":123,"order":156},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":164,"slug":165,"category":115,"order":166},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":168,"slug":169,"category":97,"order":166},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":171,"slug":172,"category":123,"order":166},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":174,"slug":175,"category":115,"order":103},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"slug":107,"category":97,"order":103},{"title":178,"slug":179,"category":123,"order":103},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":181,"slug":182,"category":115,"order":183},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":185,"slug":186,"category":97,"order":183},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":188,"slug":189,"category":123,"order":183},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":191,"slug":192,"category":115,"order":193},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":195,"slug":196,"category":97,"order":193},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":198,"slug":199,"category":123,"order":193},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":201,"slug":202,"category":115,"order":203},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":205,"slug":206,"category":97,"order":203},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":208,"slug":209,"category":123,"order":203},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":211,"slug":212,"category":115,"order":213},"1962年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":648,"slug":649,"category":97,"order":646},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":651,"slug":652,"category":115,"order":653},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":655,"slug":656,"category":97,"order":653},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":658,"slug":659,"category":115,"order":660},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":662,"slug":663,"category":97,"order":660},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":665,"slug":666,"category":115,"order":667},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":669,"slug":670,"category":97,"order":667},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":672,"slug":673,"category":115,"order":674},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":676,"slug":677,"category":97,"order":674},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":679,"slug":680,"category":115,"order":681},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":683,"slug":684,"category":97,"order":681},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":686,"slug":687,"category":115,"order":688},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":690,"slug":691,"category":97,"order":688},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":693,"slug":694,"category":115,"order":695},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":697,"slug":698,"category":97,"order":695},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":700,"slug":701,"category":115,"order":702},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":704,"slug":705,"category":97,"order":702},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":707,"slug":708,"category":115,"order":709},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":711,"slug":712,"category":97,"order":709},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":714,"slug":715,"category":115,"order":716},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":718,"slug":719,"category":97,"order":716},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":721,"slug":722,"category":115,"order":723},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":725,"slug":726,"category":97,"order":723},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":728,"slug":729,"category":115,"order":730},"2004 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