[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1664},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":128,"library-sidebar-dao":1130,"library-sidebar-models":1432},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":114,"date":115,"description":116,"extension":117,"meta":118,"navigation":119,"order":120,"path":121,"seo":122,"seoDescription":116,"seoTitle":123,"slug":124,"stem":125,"__hash__":126,"_collection":127},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi.md","巴菲特：1979年谈股市",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":110},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,31,41,47,54,61,64,67,78,81,84,91,98,101,107],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特1979年谈股市",[14,15,16],"p",{},"1979 年8 月6 日 《福布斯》",[14,18,19],{},"《当市场一片欢腾时，你将付出高昂的价格》",[14,21,22],{},"养老金经理人在作投资决策的时候依然紧盯着后视镜，这种\"战至最后一兵一卒\"的方法已经被证明将付出昂贵的代价，这次也不会例外。当前价位的股票的长期回报率应会大幅超过债券。然而，养老基金经理人对债券的投资比例却正创出新高。他们通常从企业赞助商的管理层那里获得资金支持，因而必然会取悦于这些企业支持者(吃人的嘴短拿人的手软)。",[14,24,25,26,30],{},"与此同时，他们对股票的购买却少得可怜。著名的《帕金森法则》的作者帕金森可能会得出这样的结论，即",[27,28,29],"strong",{},"专业人士对投资股票的热情，会随着近期源于持有股票的乐趣的增减而出现相应的变化","。这也是普通大众一贯的行为方式。普通人似乎遭受着同样的折磨。以下是具体记录。",[14,32,33,34,37,38],{},"1972 年，道琼斯指数的账面价值相当于607 点，利润为67.11 点，利润率相当于11%(市盈率PE=9)，当年该指数收于1020 点(市盈率15)，而养老金经理人来不及购买股票。1972 年，对股票的",[27,35,36],{},"购买量","为净可用资金(如卖出债券后所得资金)的105%，前一年更是达到了122%。这两年股票投资的快速增加令所有养老金资产的股票投资比例从61%升至74%(股债比2.8：1)——这创出了记录新高，并与道琼斯指数创出新高几乎实现了完美的同步。",[27,39,40],{},"基金经理在购买股票时支付的价格越高，他们对股市的感觉就越好。",[42,43,44],"blockquote",{},[14,45,46],{},"(在1972 年12 月行情顶点时，\"漂亮50\"公司的市盈率达到了41.9 倍，而同期美股的平均市盈率只有19.3倍，\"漂亮50\"公司中市盈率最高的是宝丽来公司，市盈率达到了95 倍。)",[14,48,49,50,53],{},"然后股市在1973-1974 年内螺旋式下跌。尽管道琼斯指数在1974 年的利润为99.04 美元，即相当于690 美元账面价值的14%，但该指数当年收于616 点(市盈率6)。捡到便宜货了？可惜，这样便宜的价格非但没有引起购买兴趣，反而引发了恐慌。那一年基金经理仅有",[27,51,52],{},"21%的净可用资金投资了股市","，为25 年来的最低水平。未参加保险的私人养老金对股票的投资比例降至净资产的54%(股债比1.2：1)，较道琼斯指数1000 多点时所认为的合适比例跌了整整20 个百分点。",[14,55,56,57,60],{},"至1976 年，随着股票价格的上涨，养老金经理人的勇气也开始日益增加，",[27,58,59],{},"56%的可用资金被用于股票投资","。这一年道琼斯指数的平均价格接近于1000 点，较当时的账面价值高了25%左右。1978 年，股票的估值更趋合理，道琼斯指数多数时候都处在账面价值之下。然而，那一年投资于股票的净资金创出了新低，仅为9%，1979年第一季度时依然维持在这一水平附近。",[14,62,63],{},"在这些数据不断创出新低的情况下，养老金经理人却在赞成购买债券，当时的债券利息率为9%-10%，并反对以账面价值1PB 或者更低的价格购买美国股票。但这些养老金经理人可能会承认，这些美国股票长期的总回报率可能会达到账面价值的13%(这是近年来的平均水平ROE=13%)，企业赞助商的管理层也非常认同这一点。",[14,65,66],{},"实际上许多企业的管理层在对待股票时表现出了些许的精神分裂症状。虽然他们认为自家的股票具有非常大的吸引力，但他们却通常会限制其养老金去购买普通股。在进行收购时，企业管理层会蔑视以账面价值1PB 对类似企业所进行的股票投资，但却乐意用2 倍于账面价值2PB 的价格去购买一家企业，并认为美国商业圆桌协会(The Business Roundtable)中那些以账面价值1PB 购买股票的企业是在进行不明智的养老金投资，他们的才智足以为他们的行为提供支持吗？",[14,68,69,70,73,74,77],{},"一个简单的巴甫洛夫式反应可能是造成这一困惑行为的主要原因。过去十年来股市给企业以及他们所雇佣的投资经理人都带来了痛楚。这两个群体都不愿回首往事。但",[27,71,72],{},"这种痛楚的产生并不是因为企业表现糟糕，而是因为股票表现弱于企业业绩","。这种不佳的表现不会无限期地维持下去，也不会较之前股票表现超过企业业绩时维持更长的时间，",[27,75,76],{},"正是这种超越企业业绩的股票表现，诱使养老金经理人在当时以高昂的价格买入股票","。",[14,79,80],{},"1999 年到期、利率9.5%、美国主要企业的债券在20 年内的回报率，能够超过以账面价值购买的、总回报率能达13%的道琼斯指数下的股票吗？这种概率看起来非常小。只有当股票回报率持续出现大跌，或者市盈率估值在20 年期限中的末期极其低时，股票投资才会成为次要投资。如果市盈率在未来20 年内上升，且平均股本回报率达到13%，现在以账面价值购买的股票的年回报率将高于13%。利率为9.5%的债券怎能比得上这些股票呢？",[14,82,83],{},"考虑一下道琼斯指数的账面价值，并将其看成是一种债券的票面价值或者本金值。并将相当于账面价值13%的收益率或者其他平均收益率看成是这种债券的可变息票——就像美国储蓄债券的利息一样，这些息票将保留下来，并加入到票面价值中。目前我们能以巨大的打折价买到\"道琼斯债券\"(道琼斯指数的账面价值，即本金为940点，而价格为840 点)，在我看来，同传统20 年期、利率为9.5%、并以账面价值购买到的债券相比，平均息票率为13%、价格大幅打折的\"道琼斯债券\"似乎能在长期内取得高得多的回报，即使13%的息票率会随着企业状况的变化而有所波动。当然，无法保证未来的平均息票一定能达到13%。也许一些养老金经理人因预期股票回报率会在接下来的十年内大幅下跌而避开股票。然而，我并不认为这将成为一种普遍的观点。",[14,85,86,87,90],{},"然而，投资经理人通常列出两大理由来反对这种观点，并认为股票并不是优于债券的选择。他们当中的一些经理人称，当前的盈利被夸大了，经过",[27,88,89],{},"重置价值折旧之后的实际盈利大幅低于公布的数据","。因此，他们认为实际回报率无法达到13%的水平。但这一观点忽视了人寿保险业、银行业、火险业、金融公司、服务性企业等投资领域中的证据。在这些行业中，使用重置价值法所得出的会计数据与采用传统会计方法所得出的结果事实上完全一致。投资者可以在这些领域中以基本相当于账面价值的价格购买一揽子大企业的股票，并获得相当于账面价值13%或者更高的回报率。此外，没有证据表明企业中的经理人没有因为出于重置价值会计法所得出的数据而在做出收购决定时放弃13%的收益。",[14,92,93,94,97],{},"他们的第二个理由是，",[27,95,96],{},"短期前景存在很大的不确定性","，等情况明朗之后再作决定不是更好吗？你们知道有一篇题为《保持购买力，直至近期的不确定性消除》(Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved)的散文。在以此篇散文作为依据之前，你需要认识到两个让人不快的事实：**未来永远也不会一目了然，以及当市场一片欢腾时，你将付出高昂的价格。**不确定性实际上是长期价值投资者的朋友。",[14,99,100],{},"如果有谁能在作出投资决策时保持这种长远的眼光，那就非养老基金经理人莫属了。当企业管理层经常通过举债来溢价收购企业时，多数养老金几乎不会遇到资金问题。如果他们希望进行长期投资，就像他们现在热衷于购买20-30 年期债券一样，他们肯定可以做到。他们能够以长期投资者的立场和预期来购买股票，他们也应当这么做。",[14,102,103,106],{},[27,104,105],{},"通过作出简单、传统或者随大流的决定，企业管理层躲避了对养老金的管理职责，他们正犯下代价昂贵的错误","。养老金资产总额大约为行业净资产的1\u002F3 左右，当然，这一规模远远超过一些特定的工业企业。因此，对这些资产的管理不善经常意味着对企业中最大部门的管理非常糟糕。养老金获利越高，企业赞助商所获得的利润也就越多，同时也将加强给受益人支付养老金的能力。",[14,108,109],{},"目前选择降低股票投资比例的基金经理要么非常看淡美国企业的前景，要么认为自己能在更低的价位买入股票。在不久的将来，金融市场很可能受到打击，并将出现更多的可供购买的股票，这种可能性一直存在。但可以肯定，在这种时候，未来看起来既不明确也不令人惬意。那些如今正等待出现\"更好\"的股票买入点的人很有可能继续保持观望，直到下一轮牛市运行了很长一段时间。",{"title":111,"searchDepth":112,"depth":112,"links":113},"",2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特在《福布斯》撰文，批评养老基金经理追涨杀跌的非理性行为，强调股票长期回报率将超债券。","md",{},true,10,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":5,"description":116},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi","RiMvyvnjgI57gv2GzV9y2x8qPATTKRbA9c6rKCixZk4","buffett",[129,134,137,141,144,147,150,154,157,160,164,167,170,174,177,180,184,187,190,194,197,200,204,207,210,214,217,220,223,224,227,231,234,237,241,244,247,251,254,257,261,264,267,271,274,277,281,284,287,291,294,297,301,304,307,311,314,317,321,324,327,331,334,337,341,344,347,351,354,357,361,364,367,371,374,377,381,384,387,391,394,397,401,404,407,411,414,417,421,424,427,431,434,437,441,444,447,451,454,457,461,464,468,471,475,478,482,485,489,492,496,499,503,506,510,513,517,520,524,527,531,534,538,541,545,548,552,555,559,562,566,569,573,576,580,583,587,590,594,597,601,604,608,611,615,618,622,625,629,632,636,639,643,646,650,653,657,660,664,667,671,674,678,681,685,688,692,695,699,702,706,709,713,716,720,723,727,730,734,737,741,744,748,751,755,758,762,765,769,772,776,779,783,786,790,793,797,800,804,807,811,814,818,821,825,828,832,835,839,842,846,849,853,856,860,863,867,870,874,877,881,884,888,891,895,898,902,905,909,912,916,919,923,926,930,934,938,942,946,950,954,958,962,966,970,974,978,982,986,990,994,998,1002,1006,1010,1014,1018,1022,1026,1030,1034,1038,1042,1046,1050,1054,1058,1062,1066,1070,1074,1078,1082,1086,1090,1094,1098,1102,1106,1110,1114,1118,1122,1126],{"title":130,"slug":131,"category":132,"order":133},"1956 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":155,"slug":156,"category":114,"order":153},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":158,"slug":159,"category":140,"order":153},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":161,"slug":162,"category":132,"order":163},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":165,"slug":166,"category":114,"order":163},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":168,"slug":169,"category":140,"order":163},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":171,"slug":172,"category":132,"order":173},"1960 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2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":612,"slug":613,"category":132,"order":614},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":616,"slug":617,"category":114,"order":614},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":619,"slug":620,"category":132,"order":621},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":623,"slug":624,"category":114,"order":621},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":626,"slug":627,"category":132,"order":628},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":630,"slug":631,"category":114,"order":628},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":633,"slug":634,"category":132,"order":635},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":637,"slug":638,"category":114,"order":635},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":640,"slug":641,"category":132,"order":642},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":644,"slug":645,"category":114,"order":642},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":647,"slug":648,"category":132,"order":649},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":651,"slug":652,"category":114,"order":649},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":654,"slug":655,"category":132,"order":656},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":658,"slug":659,"category":114,"order":656},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":661,"slug":662,"category":132,"order":663},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":665,"slug":666,"category":114,"order":663},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":668,"slug":669,"category":132,"order":670},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":672,"slug":673,"category":114,"order":670},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":675,"slug":676,"category":132,"order":677},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":679,"slug":680,"category":114,"order":677},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":682,"slug":683,"category":132,"order":684},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":686,"slug":687,"category":114,"order":684},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":689,"slug":690,"category":132,"order":691},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":693,"slug":694,"category":114,"order":691},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":696,"slug":697,"category":132,"order":698},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":700,"slug":701,"category":114,"order":698},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":703,"slug":704,"category":132,"order":705},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":707,"slug":708,"category":114,"order":705},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":710,"slug":711,"category":132,"order":712},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":714,"slug":715,"category":114,"order":712},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":717,"slug":718,"category":132,"order":719},"2000 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