[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1935},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":399,"library-sidebar-dao":1401,"library-sidebar-models":1703},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":385,"date":386,"description":387,"extension":388,"meta":389,"navigation":390,"order":391,"path":392,"seo":393,"seoDescription":387,"seoTitle":394,"slug":395,"stem":396,"__hash__":397,"_collection":398},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang.md","巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":381},"minimark",[9,13,17,23,26,33,38,41,44,49,52,57,72,75,78,92,97,100,105,112,117,120,131,138,143,146,149,155,161,164,169,172,177,180,183,188,191,201,206,209,212,217,220,223,228,239,244,250,257,263,268,271,276,283,286,289,294,297,300,307,314,319,322,329,332,337,340,343,346,349,354,357,360,363,368,371,374],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特1990年斯坦福法学院演讲",[14,15,16],"p",{},"1990 年3 月23 日",[18,19,20],"blockquote",{},[14,21,22],{},"斯坦福大学法学院开设了一门名为\"律师需要了解的企业经营知识\"的课程，这是巴菲特的长期合伙人芒格的创意，大概是全美法学院里惟一纯商业的课程。1990 年巴菲特在此做了一次嘉宾演讲，以下为演讲摘要。",[14,24,25],{},"经营与投资：一个整体中两个相互关联的部分",[14,27,28,29],{},"很多人认为经营和投资是两类完全不同的事情。实际上，经营和投资是相互关联的，有很多共通之处。",[30,31,32],"strong",{},"如果你了解了投资的基本原理，你就会成为一个更优秀的企业家；如果你了解了经营的基本原理，你将会成为一个更成功的投资者。(我是个好投资家，因为我是一个企业家。我是个好企业家，因为我是投资家。这使我在商业和投资领域都能从容地做出正确决策。)",[14,34,35],{},[30,36,37],{},"投资不是量子力学，保持简单",[14,39,40],{},"投资看起来非常简单，事实确实如此，只不过是人们往往人为地把它复杂化了。要成为一个优秀的投资者，不必具备中级甚至高级数学知识，也不必对技术有深入地了解，你只需有能力理解一些相当简单的事情，如为什么人们喜欢喝可口可乐，他们是否会一直喜欢喝；又如过去一百年已经发生了什么事情，未来一百个月内会发生什么事情。这些都不算非常复杂的问题。",[14,42,43],{},"你不必为了成为优秀的投资者而去读商学院，其实成功的投资者甚至可能连大学都不用去上……",[14,45,46],{},[30,47,48],{},"行业成就经理人",[14,50,51],{},"如果身处顺风顺水的行业，经理人很容易看起来像天才一样；但如果身处困难的行业，经理人大多数时候看起来就像笨蛋。因此，可以说，很多时候是行业成就了经理人。正是意识到了这一点，我在挣扎了差不多二十三四年后，终于离开了纺织业。(消费，医疗，金融)",[14,53,54],{},[30,55,56],{},"想要致富？请坚持在桶里射鱼",[14,58,59,60,63,64,67,68,71],{},"我认为，",[30,61,62],{},"积累财富的秘密在于坚持做自己能力圈范围内的事","。几乎99%的经理人都认为，如果自己在某一领域表现非常出色，在其他领域一定也能同样表现出色。",[30,65,66],{},"实际上，他们就像是池塘里的鸭子：下雨时，随着池塘水面的上涨，鸭子也浮了起来，但鸭子居然认为是自己的能力，而不是上帝让自己上浮","。于是，它们来到不下雨的地方，一屁股坐在地上，试图使身体浮起来，结果是可想而知的。美国的经理人在面临这种窘境时，通常会解雇自己的副手或者聘请专家获得咨询。然而，他们根本没有意识到，",[30,69,70],{},"超出自己的能力圈行事才是失败的根源","。",[14,73,74],{},"我们曾经聘请95 岁高龄的Blumkin 夫人帮助管理公司的家具业务，今年96 岁高龄的她离开了我们的公司，建立了新的企业并开始和我们竞争。她非常顽强，每天她都开着高尔夫球车经营业务，简直太出色了。",[14,76,77],{},"Blumkin 夫人有自己独特的优势，她年轻时从俄罗斯移民美国。刚到西雅图时，她几乎不会说英语，脖子上还挂着写有自己信息的标签。现在她已经在美国生活了77 年，可还是不能讲流利的英语。但她总是到处做广告，游说大家来她这里买便宜货。由于她讲不好英语，交易时常常需要通过纸和笔来交谈，但这并没有影响她的成功，真是不可思议！52 年前，Blumkin 夫人以500 美元起家，开办了内布拉斯家具超市，现在这家超市每年的税前利润已达1700 万美元。她认识数字，但是不会读，也写不出来。她也不知道什么是权责发生制，因为她根本没有任何会计知识。但是，如果你告诉她房间的结构大小，即使你的房子不是中规中矩的正方形或矩形，她也能准确判断你应该买多大的地毯。",[14,79,80,81,84,85,88,89],{},"很明显，Blumkin 夫人非常聪明，但更重要的是，",[30,82,83],{},"她一直做自己最擅长的事情","。她非常善于交易，而且非常强硬。她可以一直与你讨价还价，直到你不得不马上动身去赶飞机，最终让步的往往是你。她非常清楚自己能做什么、自己在做什么、什么价格是可以接受的，所以她不会犯错，至少她不会在房地产交易上犯错，也不会在客户信用审查上犯错。",[30,86,87],{},"但是，如果一项业务超出了她的能力圈，哪怕只是超出那么一点点，她也不会从事这项业务","。举例来说，假如你试图跟她讨论股票，她无论如何也不会投钱到股市中，连10 美分也不会投。她知道自己不懂这些，而且",[30,90,91],{},"她非常清楚自己的能力圈范围。",[14,93,94],{},[30,95,96],{},"工作中的彼得法则：每位员工都或将被升迁至不能胜任为止",[14,98,99],{},"实际上，知道自己的能力圈范围不是一件容易的事情。美国大公司的CEO 们大部分都不知道自己的能力圈范围，这也是他们进行了众多愚蠢的企业并购的原因之一。他们之所以能爬到企业的高层，可能是因为他们是成功的推销员，或者是出色的制造工人，或者在其他职位上做出了成绩，然后就非常突然地被安排成企业的最高层，负责运作上百亿美元的业务，从此之后他们的工作变成了如何配置资源、如何并购企业。可笑的是，在此之前，他们从来没有从事过任何并购业务，甚至不知道并购究竟是什么。",[14,101,102],{},[30,103,104],{},"有很多我们不懂的事情，那又如何？",[14,106,107,108,111],{},"**我们不会去做那些自己不了解的事情。**也许这样做我们会错过一些机会，但我们不会做自己不熟悉的事情，即使麦肯锡咨询公司告诉我们这是一个前景美好的项目并为我们进行了详尽的分析，但由于我们对项目不完全了解，因此无法做出决定，我们绝不会参与这样的项目。我们因为无法评估而完全自愿地放弃了90%的项目，但是这又怎么样呢？",[30,109,110],{},"我们的能力圈范围并没有随时间的推移而大幅扩展，因此我们只有等待，等待好的项目、等待机会","，一年甚至五年都不是问题。",[14,113,114],{},[30,115,116],{},"确定并严格限定自己的能力圈边界",[14,118,119],{},"如果我们不了解一项业务，就不会投资。例如，我不了解个人电脑PC 是什么，根本不能判断哪家公司的PC做得最好。即使这些我都了解，我也不清楚三年后哪家公司的PC 业务最好，但我知道三年后哪家巧克力店的生意会最好。你也许知道三年后哪家公司的PC 业务最好，但无论你怎样试图告诉我你的预测，我对PC 的了解都不会达到对巧克力的了解程度，也就没有信心做出决策。",[14,121,122,123,126,127,130],{},"投资的关键是，",[30,124,125],{},"确定自己的能力圈范围并注意保留一定的误差范围，只在确定性的能力圈内行事","。而且必须承认，有些事情我们是无法准确预测的。",[30,128,129],{},"你不可能玩任何游戏都赢","，因为很多事情是你无法确定的，在这种情况下，我宁可等待那些有把握的机会出现。然而，当你没有100%的把握时，各种机会却会不断地在你面前闪现。我们的一个问题在于规模较大，现在我们不会像原来只有1000 万美元甚至1 亿美元时去抓住每个闪现的投资机会。但是，一些有投资价值的机会也会不断地出现。",[14,132,133,134,137],{},"在商学院，我告诉那些学生，如果他们毕业时有人给他们一张打了20 个孔的卡，",[30,135,136],{},"代表他们一生中只有20 次投资机会","，每当他们做出一项投资决策，孔就会少一个，这样他们会更加珍惜每一个投资机会，并努力做出正确的投资决策，他们也会因此而更加富裕。但是，现实是，投资者可以买卖上市的任何一只股票，你可以随意地做出投资决定，然后赌它能挣钱。但是，我们不会这样。我们在等待那些明显能赚钱的机会，但华尔街的机制却不断怂恿人们买入卖出。如果交易所能定期关闭，人们的境况将会比现在好很多。",[14,139,140],{},[30,141,142],{},"我们无意控制某个公司，管理工作让别人去做",[14,144,145],{},"与其他的经理人相比，我们的优势在于只想购买某个公司的部分股权，而大多数经理却想买下整个公司，或一些他们能亲自管理的业务，这样他们的投资范围就被限定在待出售的整个公司或是可以进行恶意收购的公司。",[14,147,148],{},"我们拥有可口可乐公司7%的股权，这意味着伯克希尔公司占有了全球软饮料市场3%的份额，恐怕还没有人会以这样的角度思考投资问题。可口可乐也许是世界上最好的公司，但大多数经理却没想过要购买它的股权，这是为什么昵？因为这样的投资并不能给他们个人带来什么利益：不会有更多的人向他们报告、他们的办公室不会变得更大、一切跟以前相比没什么变化。因此，即使他们认为可口可乐公司不错，也不会投资它。",[14,150,151,154],{},[30,152,153],{},"如果提出恶意收购，目标公司就相当于进入了拍卖市场","，竞争对手会蜂拥而至。在这种情况下，他们只能付出高昂的代价，这怎么可能是一笔非常划算的交易呢？ 我的结论是，他们不会买到最好的公司。而我们总是投资于世界上最好的公司，虽然我们不能投资每一家好公司，但这没有什么区别。",[14,156,157,160],{},[30,158,159],{},"我宁可让其他人来做具体的经营管理工作","。我的意思是，任何一个让95 岁的老太太为他一周工作七天的男人都毫无羞耻之心。我非常愿意让Roberto 和唐·基奥走出去，在全世界推销可口可乐。他们每天卖出6 亿份8 盎司的软饮料如果我们拥有7%的股份，那就意味着我们每天卖出4200 万份。如果它们均匀分布在世界各地….当我睡觉的时候，至少有1400 万人在喝我们的产品。",[14,162,163],{},"可口可乐基本上没有替代品，在美国百事可乐跟可口可乐有时可以相互替代，这和它们在美国声势浩大的价格战相关。但从全球范围看并非如此，在155 个国家中，可口可乐是最受欢迎的，市场份额在不断增加。人们不会因为价格便宜而改喝另一种饮料，因此百事可乐战胜可口可乐的事是不会发生的。我们可以拥有可口可乐公司的部分股权，但我们不可能控制这家公司。我宁可以合理的价格部分拥有一家伟大的公司，也不愿意以极高的价格从竞争激烈的拍卖市场购买另一家公司的全部股权。这是我们非常大的优势。",[14,165,166],{},[30,167,168],{},"伯克希尔是我们的首选投资",[14,170,171],{},"在这个国家，很少有人真正把自己大量的钱投入任何企业。有很多人是用别人的钱在投资。但是对于查理和我来说，与你在美国看到的几乎任何一个个人投资者相比，我们两人都在伯克希尔投入了大笔的资金。除了那些人们参与自己的业务以外，很难想象一家其它的公司，人们在公司中拥有类似的股份，并在一段时间内坐在那里而不去试图控制企业。他们找到了一个有钱人来管理企业，这个人关心企业的长期成功，他不会被过去的决定所影响，也不会执着于他们经营的业务版图的规模。这可能有点价值。在某种意义上，如果他们正确地雇佣我们，他们就会得到我与查理芒格合作所得到的东西。查理并不总是很活跃。但是查理是我能找到的最聪明的人。他在伯克希尔有重大利益。即使他有或者没有重大利益其实也并不会有什么不同，他会准确地告诉我，他对我的任何想法的想法。我的大多数想法他都不喜欢。但我们俩对企业很有用，对某些企业更有用。",[14,173,174],{},[30,175,176],{},"我们的优先股投资对其普通股股东最有利",[14,178,179],{},"基本上，我们的优先股平均税前收益率约9%。税后略低于8%。如果伯克希尔的税后资本收益率仅仅为",[14,181,182],{},"8%，这将不是一笔很好的投资。因此，这些投资的普通股一定有很大上涨的可能性才行得通。我们确实有收益率的优势，而且我们确实有在十年左右后强制赎回的优势。因此，有一段时间我们可以以自己的资本成本退出。但除此之外，我们没有得到任何类似控制权的东西。我们在所有这些头寸上的投资都不会增加，我们无法买入控股权。我们不能控制这些公司，我们也不想这么做。如果普通股不上涨，我们会获得一些额外的收益。如果普通股上涨，我们无法像普通股股东一样赚的那么多，因为可转换债券无法这样。如果我们转股并在普通股中赚到钱，普通股股东会赚更多的钱。然而，如果我拥有一家公司1%的股份，而查理与我没有关联。我希望他拥有我们类似的优先股仓位，因为他会投入自己很多钱，他会有很大的投票权。如果我拥有普通股，而他拥有优先股，我会从普通股中赚更多的钱。从好的方面来看，我会比他赚得更多。从坏的方面来说，他会得到更大的保护。",[14,184,185],{},[30,186,187],{},"时代变了",[14,189,190],{},"我只是在这里插入另一个故事。它来自于1957 年首府广播(CapitalCities)上市时。我不是100%肯定，因为我还没有核实它。但据我所知，这是首府广播公司唯一的一次公开募股。就是他们公开筹集初始资金的时候。他们一度从Lowell Thomas 和一些人那里获得了一些资金，在与美国广播公司(ABC)合并时，也从我们这里获得了一些资金。但我认为这是唯一的公开发行。真正有趣的是，两家承销商共同完成了这笔29.9 万美元的发行:Harold C. Shore 我确信是一个家喻户晓的名字，以及北卡罗来纳州Durham 的第一证券公司(FirstSecurities)。这几乎令人难以置信：两家公司的承销佣金总额只有6500 美元。尽管你听说过华尔街和贪婪的投资银行家，但至少在1957 年CapCities 的发行中没有占尽上风。我回顾了1957 年CapCities 上市时的情况，比较了哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)和CapCities。你会看到CBS 的发行额接近4 亿美元，而CapCities 的发行额不到100 万美元。你会看到CapCities 银行里有10.2 万美元，CBS 银行里有4600 万美元。CBS 有一个电视网络，所有这些电视台和CapCities 在Albany 的第一个电视台曾经是退休修女的住处。他们把祈祷的地方作为他们的工作室。这个地方简直就是一个垃圾场，导演们有一次坚持让汤姆·墨菲把墙粉刷一下。于是他在接下来的一个月，只粉刷了面向公路的那一面墙。那里只有一辆新闻车，但是上面贴着6 号车之类的标签。",[14,192,193,194,197,198],{},"电视注定是一项了不起的业务。长期以来，只有三家电视网络。任何人想要与美国公众或其中相当部分人进行集体对话，只有三个渠道。那是一段美好的时光。现在不是很好，但当时很棒。",[30,195,196],{},"这完全是一个分销渠道。分销渠道可以发财，也可以不发财，这取决于有多少渠道在参与竞争","。如果只有一条渠道，你就可以发财。这就是你面临的情况，例如，以一份日报为例，如果有一大堆日报，你任何事情都做不了。这是一个非常有趣的行业。但不管怎样，有两家公司的生意非常好，CBS 拥有所有的资源，而CapCities 只有一个叫汤姆·墨菲的家伙。就像两个人从伦敦出发前往纽约，其中一个人乘坐一艘漏水的小船，另一个人乘坐豪华的伊丽莎白2 号。几年后，他们都抵达了纽约。基本上，那个划着小船的家伙第一个到达那里，而且船上的货物比豪华邮轮上的家伙还多。这很有趣。",[30,199,200],{},"你在这个世界上再也找不到比汤姆·墨菲更好的经理人了。他是一级棒的经理人，他的生意做得很好，他完成了一笔大并购。",[14,202,203],{},[30,204,205],{},"价格战的局限",[14,207,208],{},"1972 年，喜诗糖果每磅卖2 美元，现在每磅卖到8 美元。假如你在情人节那天回到家中对爱人说：\"亲爱",[14,210,211],{},"的，这是送给你的糖。价钱很便宜，是我在后面的小巷里买的，每磅只卖2.85 美元，吃之前你最好把它们洗一下。\"结果会是什么呢？",[14,213,214],{},[30,215,216],{},"因此，从本质上来说，试图通过低价来抢占市场是不可能的，尤其是在礼品市场。",[14,218,219],{},"我会到商店购买那些虽然比Hershey 巧克棒便宜但没有商标的巧克力吗？不会，我不会购买那些普通的巧克力。如果这家商店没有好时巧克力Hershey，我会到其他店里找。这并不是分销上的问题，我也可以推出巴菲特糖果，但没人会来买。我没有办法抢占Hershey 的市场份额，因为它在20 年前几乎就是最好的糖果棒了。",[14,221,222],{},"虽然玛氏Mars 试图打败Hershey，当然Hershey 也在想如何对付Mars，而吉百利Cadbury 也进入了美国，试图抢占它们的市场。并不是竞争对手不想打败它们，只是无法打败它们。",[14,224,225],{},[30,226,227],{},"需要的资产越少，公司的价值就越高",[14,229,230,231,234,235,238],{},"《每日赛马》《电视指南》和《十七岁》杂志在大约一年半前以30 亿美元的价格出售。他们几乎没有任何有形资产。但是他们有一个小城堡是《赛马表》，被一条巨大的护城河包围着，还有一个非常大的城堡是《电视指南》，被一条巨大的护城河包围着。",[30,232,233],{},"城堡的大小和护城河的宽度和深度，决定了它的价值","。它与科学、超级碗或其他任何事情都没有关系。奇怪的是，这是真正矛盾的地方。在其他条件都相同的情况下，",[30,236,237],{},"如果某家公司创造的盈利是固定的，这家公司的资产越少，它的价值就越大","。你不会在任何会计账本上看到这一点。真正令人向往的业务是不需要投入任何资金来经营的业务，因为事实已经证明，仅靠资金不会让任何人在市场的竞争中获得一席之地，这些生意才是伟大的生意。在这种伟大的生意中，无论做得多么出色，你都用不着投钱。",[14,240,241],{},[30,242,243],{},"风险套利：评估可能性和预期结果",[14,245,246,247,71],{},"40 年来，我一直在做风险套利。在我之前，我的老板格雷厄姆已经做了30 年的风险套利。只要同一产品存在两个市场，就存在套利的可能性。如果奥马哈和芝加哥各有一个小麦市场，当两者价格不一致时，就可以进行套利，这是纯粹的套利交易，",[30,248,249],{},"纯粹套利的对象是货币和商品",[14,251,252,253,256],{},"针对已经公开的一些公司事件，也可以进行",[30,254,255],{},"风险套利交易","。今天早上，我接到了一两个关于我们正在做的套利交易的电话，这些交易都涉及已经宣布的事件。我的工作就是评估这些事件发生的可能性以及预计的盈利或损失。如果一件事情发生的可能性有90%，预计顺利能获利3 美元，事情不发生的可能性有10%，不顺利会损失9美元，那么该事件的数学期望值就是2.7 美元减去0.9 美元，即1.8 美元。接下来需要考虑的就是时间因素。",[14,258,259,262],{},[30,260,261],{},"这些都涉及到了数学，但真正的困难在于估算发生的可能性以及预计的盈利和损失","。这是一个投资型函数，但它不像古典的投资型函数那样需要计算每项资产在未来10 年到20 年的价值，而是根据公司的消息及其现在的价格估算它在很短时间内价值的变化。按照我们现在的规模，我一年只关注10-15 个这样的交易，以前我一年关注的交易可能有100 个。(伯克希尔刚披露的13-D 文件显示RorerGroup 投资可能是套利交易)",[14,264,265],{},[30,266,267],{},"投资波仙珠宝Borsheim's",[14,269,270],{},"我的妻子苏茜可以向你解释波仙珠宝的投资。她认为这是我们拥有的最好的东西。波仙珠宝不需要花费我任何时间。我之所以花时间在那里卖珠宝，是因为我喜欢它。它根本不需要我，就像内布拉斯加州足球队在周六下午的比赛不需要我一样。它不会分散我做其他的事情的注意力。它也不会从可口可乐身上拿走我的钱或时间。",[14,272,273],{},[30,274,275],{},"规模和关注度对投资不利",[14,277,278,279,282],{},"在可口可乐项目上的限制因素是，在价格诱人的那段时期我们能够投入多少钱；也就是说，我们是否能够在股价抬升之前买入足够多的股份，我们试图在某种程度上控制买入时间。一般来说，在我们必须披露买入之前，我们要尽可能多的买入。结果表明，我们买到的股份与预想的差不多。",[30,280,281],{},"如果在那个价格上可以购买更多，我想自己一定会这么做的，但没有太多的股份卖给我们","。我们在6 月份时开始购买，在次年3 月完成买入。购买这家与众不同公司7%的股权花了我们八九个月的时间。当时，可口可乐本身也在回购自己的股份，很明显我们跟可口可乐公司的做法是不一致的。在那段时期，可口可乐和我们一共买了12%的股份。",[14,284,285],{},"规模和关注度确实对投资有负面影响，但总的来说，这些因素的影响并不是那么重要。它们没有弄乱我的私人生活，只是让投资机会被更多地分享。但是，投资游戏总是变得更难了，规模是一个较大的问题。",[14,287,288],{},"我们这里有一个家伙，我不想指出他，他会写我提到的任何一家公司的报告，然后再把信息卖给别人。他是应邀而来的。如果你对投资感兴趣，我建议你订阅他的刊物。(巴菲特说的刊物是OID)",[14,290,291],{},[30,292,293],{},"很难比你最蠢的竞争对手更聪明",[14,295,296],{},"伯克希尔花在公务机上的开支年年增长，卖掉飞机100%是因为我的品味改变了，而不是因为飞机升值了。我们花了85 万买的那架飞机卖了100 万。这反映了飞机市场的狂热。这也是我放纵自己能力的另一个指标。",[14,298,299],{},"航空运输业是个糟糕的行业，在25 年前，在航空运输业和CouncilBluffs、Iowa 州和其他小城市的一堆报纸报纸业之间，如果有人问你未来什么行业会有较大的发展，你肯定会选择航空业。就单位销售额而言，航空运输业的发展非常迅猛，但是实际上这是你能想到的最糟糕的生意。",[14,301,302,303,306],{},"环球航空公司(TWA)是美国资格最为古老的航空公司之一，但这40 年来几乎没有赚一分钱，泛美航空(PanAm)和东方航空也没有挣到钱，这并不是因为它们支出过高，而是因为航空运输是一个非常难做的行业，",[30,304,305],{},"它的特点是资本密集、劳动力密集和提供大宗商品性产品，没有比这更糟糕的描述了","。你所做的工作就是花钱，你根本没有机会停下喘息(赚钱)。不幸的是，这就是该行业的本质。",[14,308,309,310,313],{},"这个行业中的价格战非常激烈，如果某家公司推出旅客优惠活动，其他十几家公司第二天就会提供同样的优惠。如果某家公司开始给出双倍优惠，其他公司马上会效仿。在这样一个竞争激烈的行业，你必须与竞争对手保持同步，无论这样做是多么的愚蠢。这就像过去街边的加油站，如果一个人降价，其他人在五分钟后必须降价。",[30,311,312],{},"在大宗商品行业，你很难比最愚蠢的竞争对手更聪明","。我是在很久以前从商学院学到这个道理的，这是商学院能教给学生的为数不多的正确理论之一。",[14,315,316],{},[30,317,318],{},"在确定潜在目标非常值得时，一定要尽可能多地投资",[14,320,321],{},"当我真的想进行某项投资时，我通常想把我所有的财产都投入其中，这就是我正常的感受。当你这样做时，你可以获得很好的收益，这些理念已经经受了长时间的考验。以投资规模和我们花费的精力作为标准，过去40 年我们大机会和另一些较小机会之间的回报差别非常之大。我们的大机会获得了更好的收益，这也就是为什么你们的投资卡片上应该只有20 个孔。总是有人问我，他们是否应该在这种或那种情况下采取行动，我从来没有回答过这类问题，答案是，如果你自己都不知道，那就不要去做。",[14,323,324,325,328],{},"投资者应该只去做那些你认为值得投入大量金钱的事情，",[30,326,327],{},"如果你不想投入很多钱的话，那它就不是一个好机会，那么就不要去做","。除了某些套利交易，如果我不打算投入我全部财产的10%，就不会投入哪怕一分钱。因为如果我连10%都不愿投入，就说明那不是一个好机会。",[14,330,331],{},"如果你说，你想花50 美分去买1 美元，你可能会问，为什么不在80 美分时就多买一些呢？答案是，你知道你有机会在50 美分买到更多的东西，不管是那张1 美元的钞票还是别的什么东西。因此，你要设定非常大的安全边际。这些安全边际并不适用于当你不得不卖出的一些东西，但安全边际确实适用于你要投入新资金的时候。此外，我们这样做还有其它原因，但这些都是经济原因。你无法非常确定，如果你能以50 美分买到价值1 美元的东西，就应该以51 美分卖掉，然后以50 美分以上的价格买下其它东西。除非你在比较不同的政府债券或类似的东西，否则这不是一个价格可以精确微调的游戏。有很大的价格区间，你进入仍感觉舒适，因为你知道你所拥有的东西的价格仍低于它的价值，并且你认为它的价值在上升，所以你进入了一个你仍然感到舒适的广阔的价格区域。但它没有那种吸引人的折扣，让你不得不掏空口袋，往里面投入新的资金。",[14,333,334],{},[30,335,336],{},"现代投资组合理论",[14,338,339],{},"我和查理认为现代投资组合理论毫无意义，那都是胡说八道。我们从不认为自己在冒险，而现代投资组合理论的基础是用股票价格的波动性来衡量投资风险。",[14,341,342],{},"我们在1974 年购买了《华盛顿邮报》公司的股票，当时市场估值大约为8000 万美元，那时整个公司可以随时以4 亿美元的价格非常容易地出售。如果要套现，公司的大股东可以立刻把这个公司出售给5 个人。在我们购买这家公司时，如果你去问100 个分析师这个公司值多少钱，没有人会怀疑它值4 亿美元，但分析师们认为《华盛顿邮报》公司的股票在下周或者下个月都不会再上涨，因此他们卖出了股票。我们却在一两个月的时间里以8000 万估值买了这家公司约10%的股票。",[14,344,345],{},"按照贝塔理论和现代投资组合理论，即使它值4 亿美元，我们以4000 万美元买入的风险比以8000 万美元买入的风险还大，原因就是公司股票的波动性变得更大了，正因如此这些人才看不懂我为什么要买入。当然存在风险与收益等同的情况，但当你购买便宜货的时候，它们的价格往往变的更便宜，如果价格进一步下跌，我并不在意价格下跌的速度或者其他情况，这只能进一步降低购买风险。以8000 万美元买《华盛顿邮报》公司的股票比花 1.2 亿美元购买的风险更小，当然，只花4000 万美元买下的风险更小。",[14,347,348],{},"**但这是假设你知道自己在做什么。**整个现代投资组合理论的假设就是，你根本不知道自己在做什么。这个理论告诉你，你什么都不知道，所以就应该按照这个理论来做。",[14,350,351],{},[30,352,353],{},"我们不喜欢竞争",[14,355,356],{},"**一般来说，我不喜欢投资于有很多国外竞争者的公司，原因跟我之前告诉过你们的一样，我也不喜欢投资于有很多本国竞争者的公司。**如果一家公司面临世界范围的竞争，它的经营会很艰难，这就是为什么很多公司把工厂设到中国台湾或者其他一些地方的原因，这样做可以获得长期的结构优势，而且美国高额的诉讼费用增加了生产成本。从长期来看，各种相对成本差异都可能会影响投资。",[14,358,359],{},"我喜欢美国本土的公司，因为我不知道其他国家一夜之间会发生什么。我和苏茜1955 年买过一家公司的股",[14,361,362],{},"票，现在我们还各持有1 股。任何时候看起来它都是很安全的，是只不错的股票。只有一个问题，该公司的资产位于古巴首都哈瓦那，卡斯特罗查封了它。我们的股权已没有任何意义，只能放着。我们曾提出抗议，但毫无用处。我一直保留着这只股票，就是为了让它提醒我会发生什么，某些国家的法律可能在一夜之间改变。",[14,364,365],{},[30,366,367],{},"我们不进行恶意收购，我们选择协商",[14,369,370],{},"我们只去那些欢迎我们的地方，当我购买一些公司的股票时，会不止一次地告诉这些公司，我希望买到他们乐意让我们持有的股份。以《华盛顿邮报》公司为例，当我们持有公司9%的股份时，当时的董事长凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆就不太满意了。于是我说，好的，我不再买入你们的股票。就这么简单。",[14,372,373],{},"我不希望管理层因为我们购买公司的股票而不舒服，因为如果他们不满意，会做很多蠢事，比如发行更多价格低廉的股票。我希望他们做明智的事情。因此，如果他们感到不满意，我们就不会再继续购买。我希望在上限范围内尽可能地买入，我会与公司管理层讨论购买的上限。",[14,375,376,377,380],{},"我们的谈判与其他人很不一样，我们只花了一小时就购买了喜诗糖果。我们购买的每家公司通常是一个电话就决定了，购买波仙珠宝时，我顺路到公司当时的总裁艾克·弗里德曼的家里待了半个小时，他给我看了一些用铅笔写在纸上未经审计的数据，之后我们就决定了。",[30,378,379],{},"如果我需要律师和会计师组成的团队为我的交易服务，那就不是一笔好的交易","。我们从没有因为任何原因把谈判的范围扩大，那不是我们的风格。如果一笔交易需要那样做，我情愿不做，因为那样迟早会毁了我。因此，我们只按照自己的方式做。",{"title":382,"searchDepth":383,"depth":383,"links":384},"",2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特在斯坦福法学院演讲，阐述经营与投资的共通之处，强调理解商业原理对法律从业者的价值。","md",{},true,21,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":5,"description":387},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang","QWvHaS8D_jVZ-4T8QHgIZ1j2bQ5pj-hlJcLUZhUn33E","buffett",[400,405,408,412,415,418,421,425,428,431,435,438,441,445,448,451,455,458,461,465,468,471,475,478,481,485,488,491,495,498,501,505,508,511,515,518,521,525,528,531,535,538,541,545,548,551,555,558,561,565,568,571,575,578,581,585,588,591,595,598,601,604,605,608,612,615,618,622,625,628,632,635,638,642,645,648,652,655,658,662,665,668,672,675,678,682,685,688,692,695,698,702,705,708,712,715,718,722,725,728,732,735,739,742,746,749,753,756,760,763,767,770,774,777,781,784,788,791,795,798,802,805,809,812,816,819,823,826,830,833,837,840,844,847,851,854,858,861,865,868,872,875,879,882,886,889,893,896,900,903,907,910,914,917,921,924,928,931,935,938,942,945,949,952,956,959,963,966,970,973,977,980,984,987,991,994,998,1001,1005,1008,1012,1015,1019,1022,1026,1029,1033,1036,1040,1043,1047,1050,1054,1057,1061,1064,1068,1071,1075,1078,1082,1085,1089,1092,1096,1099,1103,1106,1110,1113,1117,1120,1124,1127,1131,1134,1138,1141,1145,1148,1152,1155,1159,1162,1166,1169,1173,1176,1180,1183,1187,1190,1194,1197,1201,1205,1209,1213,1217,1221,1225,1229,1233,1237,1241,1245,1249,1253,1257,1261,1265,1269,1273,1277,1281,1285,1289,1293,1297,1301,1305,1309,1313,1317,1321,1325,1329,1333,1337,1341,1345,1349,1353,1357,1361,1365,1369,1373,1377,1381,1385,1389,1393,1397],{"title":401,"slug":402,"category":403,"order":404},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":406,"slug":407,"category":385,"order":404},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":409,"slug":410,"category":411,"order":404},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":413,"slug":414,"category":403,"order":383},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":416,"slug":417,"category":385,"order":383},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":419,"slug":420,"category":411,"order":383},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":422,"slug":423,"category":403,"order":424},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":426,"slug":427,"category":385,"order":424},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":429,"slug":430,"category":411,"order":424},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":432,"slug":433,"category":403,"order":434},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":436,"slug":437,"category":385,"order":434},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":439,"slug":440,"category":411,"order":434},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":442,"slug":443,"category":403,"order":444},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":446,"slug":447,"category":385,"order":444},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":449,"slug":450,"category":411,"order":444},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":452,"slug":453,"category":403,"order":454},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":456,"slug":457,"category":385,"order":454},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":459,"slug":460,"category":411,"order":454},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":462,"slug":463,"category":403,"order":464},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":466,"slug":467,"category":385,"order":464},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":469,"slug":470,"category":411,"order":464},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":472,"slug":473,"category":403,"order":474},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":476,"slug":477,"category":385,"order":474},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":479,"slug":480,"category":411,"order":474},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":482,"slug":483,"category":403,"order":484},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":486,"slug":487,"category":385,"order":484},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":489,"slug":490,"category":411,"order":484},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":492,"slug":493,"category":403,"order":494},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":496,"slug":497,"category":385,"order":494},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":499,"slug":500,"category":411,"order":494},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":502,"slug":503,"category":403,"order":504},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":506,"slug":507,"category":385,"order":504},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":509,"slug":510,"category":411,"order":504},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":512,"slug":513,"category":403,"order":514},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":516,"slug":517,"category":385,"order":514},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":519,"slug":520,"category":411,"order":514},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":522,"slug":523,"category":403,"order":524},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":526,"slug":527,"category":385,"order":524},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":529,"slug":530,"category":411,"order":524},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":532,"slug":533,"category":403,"order":534},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":536,"slug":537,"category":385,"order":534},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":539,"slug":540,"category":411,"order":534},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":542,"slug":543,"category":403,"order":544},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":546,"slug":547,"category":385,"order":544},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":549,"slug":550,"category":411,"order":544},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":552,"slug":553,"category":403,"order":554},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":556,"slug":557,"category":385,"order":554},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":559,"slug":560,"category":411,"order":554},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":562,"slug":563,"category":403,"order":564},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":566,"slug":567,"category":385,"order":564},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":569,"slug":570,"category":411,"order":564},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":572,"slug":573,"category":403,"order":574},"1965 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巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":908,"slug":909,"category":385,"order":906},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":911,"slug":912,"category":403,"order":913},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":915,"slug":916,"category":385,"order":913},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":918,"slug":919,"category":403,"order":920},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":922,"slug":923,"category":385,"order":920},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":925,"slug":926,"category":403,"order":927},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":929,"slug":930,"category":385,"order":927},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":932,"slug":933,"category":403,"order":934},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":936,"slug":937,"category":385,"order":934},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":939,"slug":940,"category":403,"order":941},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":943,"slug":944,"category":385,"order":941},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":946,"slug":947,"category":403,"order":948},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":950,"slug":951,"category":385,"order":948},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":953,"slug":954,"category":403,"order":955},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":957,"slug":958,"category":385,"order":955},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":960,"slug":961,"category":403,"order":962},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":964,"slug":965,"category":385,"order":962},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":967,"slug":968,"category":403,"order":969},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":971,"slug":972,"category":385,"order":969},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":974,"slug":975,"category":403,"order":976},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":978,"slug":979,"category":385,"order":976},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":981,"slug":982,"category":403,"order":983},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":985,"slug":986,"category":385,"order":983},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":988,"slug":989,"category":403,"order":990},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":992,"slug":993,"category":385,"order":990},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":995,"slug":996,"category":403,"order":997},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":999,"slug":1000,"category":385,"order":997},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1002,"slug":1003,"category":403,"order":1004},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1006,"slug":1007,"category":385,"order":1004},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1009,"slug":1010,"category":403,"order":1011},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1013,"slug":1014,"category":385,"order":1011},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1016,"slug":1017,"category":403,"order":1018},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1020,"slug":1021,"category":385,"order":1018},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1023,"slug":1024,"category":403,"order":1025},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1027,"slug":1028,"category":385,"order":1025},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1030,"slug":1031,"category":403,"order":1032},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1034,"slug":1035,"category":385,"order":1032},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1037,"slug":1038,"category":403,"order":1039},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1041,"slug":1042,"category":385,"order":1039},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1044,"slug":1045,"category":403,"order":1046},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1048,"slug":1049,"category":385,"order":1046},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1051,"slug":1052,"category":403,"order":1053},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1055,"slug":1056,"category":385,"order":1053},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1058,"slug":1059,"category":403,"order":1060},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1062,"slug":1063,"category":385,"order":1060},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1065,"slug":1066,"category":403,"order":1067},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1069,"slug":1070,"category":385,"order":1067},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1072,"slug":1073,"category":403,"order":1074},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1076,"slug":1077,"category":385,"order":1074},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1079,"slug":1080,"category":403,"order":1081},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1083,"slug":1084,"category":385,"order":1081},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1086,"slug":1087,"category":403,"order":1088},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1090,"slug":1091,"category":385,"order":1088},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1093,"slug":1094,"category":403,"order":1095},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1097,"slug":1098,"category":385,"order":1095},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1100,"slug":1101,"category":403,"order":1102},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1104,"slug":1105,"category":385,"order":1102},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1107,"slug":1108,"category":403,"order":1109},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1111,"slug":1112,"category":385,"order":1109},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1114,"slug":1115,"category":403,"order":1116},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1118,"slug":1119,"category":385,"order":1116},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1121,"slug":1122,"category":403,"order":1123},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1125,"slug":1126,"category":385,"order":1123},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1128,"slug":1129,"category":403,"order":1130},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1132,"slug":1133,"category":385,"order":1130},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1135,"slug":1136,"category":403,"order":1137},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1139,"slug":1140,"category":385,"order":1137},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1142,"slug":1143,"category":403,"order":1144},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1146,"slug":1147,"category":385,"order":1144},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1149,"slug":1150,"category":403,"order":1151},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1153,"slug":1154,"category":385,"order":1151},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1156,"slug":1157,"category":403,"order":1158},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1160,"slug":1161,"category":385,"order":1158},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1163,"slug":1164,"category":403,"order":1165},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1167,"slug":1168,"category":385,"order":1165},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1170,"slug":1171,"category":403,"order":1172},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1174,"slug":1175,"category":385,"order":1172},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1177,"slug":1178,"category":403,"order":1179},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1181,"slug":1182,"category":385,"order":1179},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1184,"slug":1185,"category":403,"order":1186},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":1188,"slug":1189,"category":385,"order":1186},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1191,"slug":1192,"category":403,"order":1193},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":1195,"slug":1196,"category":385,"order":1193},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":1198,"slug":1199,"category":385,"order":1200},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":1202,"slug":1203,"category":385,"order":1204},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":1206,"slug":1207,"category":385,"order":1208},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":1210,"slug":1211,"category":385,"order":1212},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":1214,"slug":1215,"category":385,"order":1216},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":1218,"slug":1219,"category":385,"order":1220},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":1222,"slug":1223,"category":385,"order":1224},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":1226,"slug":1227,"category":385,"order":1228},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":1230,"slug":1231,"category":385,"order":1232},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 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