[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1889},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":353,"library-sidebar-dao":1355,"library-sidebar-models":1657},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":339,"date":340,"description":341,"extension":342,"meta":343,"navigation":344,"order":345,"path":346,"seo":347,"seoDescription":341,"seoTitle":348,"slug":349,"stem":350,"__hash__":351,"_collection":352},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi.md","巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":335},"minimark",[9,13,17,24,36,39,42,45,48,51,53,55,58,61,64,67,70,73,79,86,89,92,95,98,101,108,111,114,117,120,123,130,133,136,139,142,145,148,154,157,160,167,174,181,184,191,194,197,200,203,206,209,212,215,218,221,229,232,235,241,244,247,250,255,258,261,264,267,270,273,276,279,282,285,288,295,302,304,309,312,315,318,321,324,332],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2001年巴菲特谈股市",[14,15,16],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特谈股市2001",[18,19,20],"p",{},[21,22,23],"strong",{},"2001 年12 月10 日，《财富》巴菲特7 月太阳谷演讲稿",[25,26,27,30,33],"blockquote",{},[18,28,29],{},"迎接投资者的将是什么呢？是另一轮轰轰烈烈的牛市，还是新一轮更让人倒胃口的熊市？有趣的是，这一问题的答案可能归结于三个简单的因素。在这篇报道中，全球最著名的投资者将谈到究竟是什么因素在推动着市场的运行，以及是否市场的运行规律应让你感到紧张。",[18,31,32],{},"两年前，《财富》杂志以\"巴菲特先生谈股市\"为题刊登了伯克希尔主席沃伦巴菲特于1999 年7 月艾伦公司太阳谷年会上发表的一篇演讲(1999 年11 月22 日刊)，巴菲特很少就股市话题公开发表讨论。当时他主要谈到了美国投资者所经历过的两个连续但表现迥异的时期，并表示，他相信股市回报率注定大幅下降。因道琼斯指数已经从他发表那篇演讲时的11194 点跌至如今的9900 点左右，没有人对巴菲特的观点提出质疑。对于黯淡的盈利前景、一场无经验战争以及低沉的消费者信心，股市似乎正在作出反应，我们现在该何去何从呢？还有谁能较巴菲特更适合回答这个问题呢？",[18,34,35],{},"沃伦巴菲特在2001 年7 月于同一个地点，即爱达荷州太阳谷的艾伦公司(Allen & Co)年会上为企业执行官们发表了第二篇演讲。在这次演讲中，这位著名的股神重提当年谈论过的话题，在加入新数据的同时也提出了一些新的观点。在《财富》杂志卡罗尔卢米斯的共同努力下，巴菲特将这篇演讲整理成以下文字，这为今年的投资指导开了个好头。以下是\"巴菲特先生谈股市\"的最新内容。",[18,37,38],{},"上次我谈到这一话题是在1999 年，当时我将之前的34 年分割成两个17 年，其中的一个17 年是荒年，而另外一个17 年是丰收年，这两个时期有着惊人的对称性。这里先谈第一个17 年。如你所见，在这段时期内，道琼斯指数只上涨了0.1%。",[18,40,41],{},"道琼斯工业平均指数",[18,43,44],{},"1964 年12 月31 日：874.12 点",[18,46,47],{},"1981 年12 月31 日：875.00 点",[18,49,50],{},"再看一下接下来的17 年。这段时期内的股市经历了一轮难以置信的牛市。这轮牛市在我上次谈到时已经接近尾声(尽管当时我并不知道何时结束)。",[18,52,41],{},[18,54,47],{},[18,56,57],{},"1998 年12 月31 日：9181.43 点",[18,59,60],{},"你无法用GNP 增长的差别来解释为何这两个时期内的股市表现会有如此大的差异。在第一个17 年内，虽然是在熊市时期，但GNP 的增长实际上是第二个17 年内的2 倍多。(GNP 仅国内收入，GDP 包含国外收入)",[18,62,63],{},"GNP 增长",[18,65,66],{},"1964-1981 年：373%",[18,68,69],{},"1981-1998 年：177%",[18,71,72],{},"那么该如何解释这一现象呢？我的结论是，市场之所以会有如此截然相反的走势是因为两个经济变量出现了显著的变化，且相关的心理上的力量也对市场变化最终带来了影响。",[18,74,75,76],{},"这里我需要提醒你们有关\"投资\"的定义，这一定义虽然简单但却常为人们所遗忘。",[21,77,78],{},"投资指的就是现在先投入一笔钱，然后在未来拿回更多的钱。",[18,80,81,82,85],{},"由此引出了影响",[21,83,84],{},"股价的第一个经济变量——利率","。在经济学中，利率就像是真实世界中的万有引力。在所有时候，在所有市场，在世界所有地方，利率的微小变化都会改变所有金融资产的价值。你可以从债券价格波动中明确地看到这一点。但这一规则也适用于农田、石油储量、股票以及其他任何一种金融资产。且利率变化对价值的影响可以是巨大的。如果利率为13%，未来从投资中获得的1 美元的现值，远远不及利率4%环境下1 美元的现值高。以下是这34 年中几个关键日期的利率。在前17 年中，这些利率大幅上升，这对投资者而言非常不利。",[18,87,88],{},"在第二个17 年中利率大幅下降，这对投资者是福音。",[18,90,91],{},"利率：长期政府债券",[18,93,94],{},"1964 年12 月31 日： 4.20%",[18,96,97],{},"1981 年12 月31 日：13.65%",[18,99,100],{},"1998 年12 月31 日： 5.09%",[18,102,103,104,107],{},"另外一个关键的变量就是",[21,105,106],{},"投资者期望从所投资的公司中获得多少回报","。在第一个17 年内，由于企业盈利不佳，投资者的这种预期大幅下降。到1980 年代初，美联储主席保罗·沃克尔(Paul Volcker)所采取的强力经济政策事实上把企业盈利能力推升至1930 年代以来的最高水平。",[18,109,110],{},"关键在于，在第一个周期，投资者对美国经济丧失了信心。他们展望未来，相信未来被两个负面因素困扰。首先，他们不看好企业的盈利。其次，当时的高利率让那些微薄的收益进一步打折扣。这两个因素一起导致股市在1964-1981 年间陷入了熊市。虽然那段时期内的GNP 有了很大增长。美国企业在不断成长，但是投资者对这些企业的估值却正在下降!",[18,112,113],{},"随后这两个因素发生了逆转，在GNP 增长放缓的同时，股市却出现了飙升。首先，企业盈利大幅上升；其次，利率大幅下降，这让未来的1 美元盈利的现值变得更加值钱。这两个因素都是大牛市真实而强大的推进剂。我提到的一个心理因素也恰巧起了作用：投机交易爆炸性增长，而这仅仅是因为人们看到了市场此前的表现。稍后，我们将研究病态和危险的一幕幕将再次出现在我们面前。",[18,115,116],{},"两年前，我认为有利的基本趋势已经走到了尽头。如果市场要从当时的点位继续大幅上升，那么需要长期利率进一步大幅下降(这种可能性总是存在)或者企业盈利需要大幅改善(这在当时看来似乎不大可能)。**如果你看一下 50 年来的企业税后利润与GDP 的比率，你就会发现这一比率通常在4-6.5%区间内，超过6.5%的情况非常少见(在1981 年低点时这一比率约4%)。**在盈利情况非常好的1999 年和2000 年，这一比率依然低于6%，今年可能会跌破5%。",[18,118,119],{},"你已经有了我对两段截然不同的17 年周期的解释。问题是，股票市场的过去能在多大程度上能告诉我们股市的未来？为了启发答案，我先回顾一下整个20 世纪。众所周知，这个世纪是美国的世纪。我们发明了汽车、飞机、收音机、电视机和电脑。这是一段令人难以置信的时期。确实，按美元计，美国人均产出的实际增长达到了惊人的702%(扣除通货膨胀的影响)。",[18,121,122],{},"当然，20 世纪也包括了一些艰难的年份，比如1929-1933 年的大萧条时期。但是美国的人均GNP 每隔10 年都会出现大幅增长，你会发现一个令人吃惊的现象：作为一个国家，我们在20 世纪持续取得进步。因此，你可能会认为，美国的经济价值也会以相当一致的节奏增长，至少用美国的证券市场来衡量会是如此。(在20 世纪早期美国人均GNP 的增长较慢。但是如果你把美国看作一个股票，总体而言，它应该是快速成长股。)",[18,124,125],{},[126,127],"img",{"alt":128,"src":129},"","\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_177592844729027436.png",[18,131,132],{},"但事实并非如此。我们从之前对1964-1998 年间市场走势的讨论中已经知道，经济和股市之间的相关性已经被彻底打破。整个20 世纪也是如此。例如在20 世纪初，即1900-1920 年间，美国快速崛起，对电力、汽车电话的应用出现了爆炸式的增长。然而，股市表现沉闷，年回报率仅为0.4%，跟1964-1981 年间的表现相似。",[18,134,135],{},"道琼斯工业指数：",[18,137,138],{},"1899 年12 月31 日：66.08 点",[18,140,141],{},"1920 年12 月31 日：71.95 点",[18,143,144],{},"接着我们迎来了繁荣的1920 年代，道琼斯指数在1929 年9 月触及381 点，涨幅达到430%。而在随后整整 19 年道琼斯指数跌去了一半，最低为177 点。但是1940 年代的人均GDP 增长了50%，是20 世纪增长最快的 10 年。之后美国股市最终迎来了长达17 年的牛市，股市上涨了5 倍。接下来就是在一开始时便予以讨论过的两个时期：1964-1981 年的熊市，以及随之而来的1982-1998 世纪大牛市。",[18,146,147],{},"从另外一个角度来看20 世纪，我们可以看到，美国股市经历了3 个牛市，历时44 年，期间道琼斯指数上涨了超过11000 点。而在其余的56 年内，美国股市出现了3 次熊市。在那56 年内，美国经济取得了长足的发展，但同期的道琼斯指数却下跌了292 点。",[18,149,150,151],{},"怎么会这样呢？在一个国家欣欣向荣、人人努力赚钱的的国度内，怎么会出现3 个长期而痛苦的熊市呢？不考虑股息分红，这3 个熊市会让你亏钱。答案就在于投资者反复犯的错误——即我之前提到过的一种心理因素：",[21,152,153],{},"人们习惯性的被后视镜所误导，且多数情况下只关注刚刚才发生过的事情。",[18,155,156],{},"20 世纪最初的一段历史生动地展示了这种短视行为。在20 世纪的前20 年内，股票通常比高等级债券收益率更高。这种关系在如今看来有些怪异，但在当时却像是一条公理。股票以高风险而闻名，因此，如果没有获得溢价，为什么要买股票呢？",[18,158,159],{},"一个名叫埃德加·劳伦斯·史密斯(Edgar Lawrence Smith)的人在1924 年写了一本书。这是一本薄薄的书，最初没有人知道这本书的存在，但最终它将给市场带来史无前例的影响。该书名为**《普通股的长期投资》**(Common Stocks as Long Term Investments)，史密斯在书中对截至1922 年的56 年内的股价波动进行了研究。史密斯带着如下假设开始了研究工作：在通货膨胀时期，股票表现更好；而在通缩时期，债券表现更好。这是一个完全合理的假设。但请看一下本书一开始写的一段文字：\"这本书是对一个失败的记录——事实未能支持这一预先作出的假设。\"史密斯继续写道：\"然而，所罗列的事实似乎值得进一步展开研究。如果这些事实无法像事先预期的那样证实假设，那么应该敞开胸怀跟着这些事实走，看看最终能得出怎样的结论。\"",[18,161,162,163,166],{},"史密斯是一个聪明的人，他完成了世界上难度最大的事情。查尔斯·达尔文常说：",[21,164,165],{},"无论何时，当他找到一个与他珍视的结论所相反的事情时，他有义务在30 分钟之内写下这些新的发现。否则他的大脑就会拒绝这些不一致的信息，就像身体对植入体内的器官有排斥反应一样","。人类本能的趋势就是坚守自己所相信的东西，尤其是在近期的经历强化了他们的这种信仰时——正是这一我们自身的缺陷导致了长期牛市和熊市中所发生的一切。",[18,168,169,170,173],{},"为了陈述史密斯的发现，我将在此引用一位传奇思想家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的话(John Maynard Keynes)。在 1925 年，凯恩斯对史密斯的这本书发表了一番评论，该书因而一举成名。凯恩斯在评论中写道：\"",[21,171,172],{},"也许史密斯先生最重要的观点，也是最具创新的观点就是，经营良好的工业企业通常不会将所有的利润都分配给股东。即使不是年年如此，他们也会在利润丰厚的时期留下部分利润，并将这些利润再次投入业务。如此便创造了一种复利因素(凯恩斯加注斜体)有利于稳健的工业投资。","\"",[18,175,176,177,180],{},"就是这么简单。这甚至不是什么新闻。人们当然知道企业不会拿出所有的利润。但投资者从来没有想到这意味着什么。虽然如此，史密斯说：",[21,178,179],{},"为何股票往往会打败债券呢？一个主要原因就是企业保留了利润，而这些留存利润用于再投资，从而产生了更多的利润，当然也创造了股息","。",[18,182,183],{},"这一发现引发了一轮史无前例的大牛市。史密斯这一洞见激发了投资者的热情，他们争相涌入股市，并预期双重回报：股票收益率高于债券，并且经济增长将加快。对美国公众而言，这一新理解就像古人发现了火种一样。但很快这些人便被火烧伤了。随着股票价格不断被推高，股票的收益率第一次低于债券，并最终迫使股票收益率大幅低于债券。接下来发生的事情应会让读者感到似曾相识：仅仅是股价上涨如此之快，便成为了人们冲入股市抢购的主要动力。1925 年少数人以正确的理由购买股票，1929 年多数人以错误的理由购买股票。",[18,185,186,187,190],{},"敏锐的凯恩斯在1925 年的评论中就已经预期到了这种反常情况的发生。他写到：\"",[21,188,189],{},"根据过去的经验来推断未来是危险的做法，除非能从过往的历史中找出广义的原因。","\"他指出，如果你不能做到这一点，那么你可能会掉入预期的陷阱：只有当一切条件都与过去完全相同时，期待的结果才会在未来重复出现。当然，凯恩斯脑海中的特殊情况来自于史密斯覆盖了半个世纪的研究，即股票的收益率通常高于高等级债券。",[18,192,193],{},"投资者在1920 年代时所犯的巨大错误，此后以这样或那样的形式反复出现了多次。我们已经看到，1920 年代股市狂欢对公众的影响一直持续到了1948 年。此时美国的内在价值远超过之前的20 年，股票收益率是债券收益率的2 倍多，而股价却仅为1929 年巅峰时的一半。毫无疑问产生史密斯伟大成果的条件再次出现。虽然这些情况在1940 年代末时非常显眼，但投资者被1930 年代初的痛苦经历的吓坏了，谨防自己再度遭受痛苦。",[18,195,196],{},"不要认为只有小投资者才会犯下太过关注于后视镜的错误。让我们来看看由专业人士管理的养老基金近几十年来的表现。1971 年正值\"漂亮50\"年代，对市场感觉良好的养老基金经理人，将超过90%的净现金流投入到了股市，这在当时是创纪录的投入。在随后的几年内，股市暴跌，股价变得越来越便宜。养老基金经理人随后又做了些什么呢？他们停止买入股票，因为股价变得更便宜了!",[18,198,199],{},"私人养老基金净现金流投资股票占比：",[18,201,202],{},"1971 年：91%",[18,204,205],{},"1974 年：13%",[18,207,208],{},"这是我永远也无法理解的一件事。就我个人口味而言，我打算在自己的余生一直吃汉堡。当汉堡的价格下跌时，我们会在巴菲特家高唱\"哈利路亚\"。当汉堡价格上涨时，我们则会哭泣。多数人在购买生活中的任何一样东西时都是这种心理——除了股票。当股票价格下跌，你可以用钱买入更多的时候，人们却不再喜欢它们了。",[18,210,211],{},"当养老基金经理人也做出这种行为时，这种行为尤其让人感到困惑。按理养老基金经理人应是有着最长远眼光的投资者。这些经理人无需为明天、明年或者未来10 年内的资金发愁。因此他们完全有理由坐下来放松一下。此外，因为他们不是在使用自己的资金进行投资，原始的贪婪不应扭曲他们的决策。他们应当只考虑哪些事情是最合理的。然而，他们表现的就像是业余选手，不过他们工资照拿，就好像拥有特殊的专业技能一样。",[18,213,214],{},"在1979 年当我发现市场上到处都是可以尖叫着购买的股票时，我在一篇文章中写道：\"养老基金经理人依然将眼睛盯在后视镜上，并继续做着错误的决定。这种方法在过去已经被证实将付出昂贵的代价，而这一次他们也将付出同样的代价。\"确实如此，因为\"现在的股价水平应当能产生远高于债券的长期回报\"。",[18,216,217],{},"看一下1972 年的情况，当时养老基金经理人依然在买入股票：年末道琼斯指数收于1020 点，平均账面价值相当于625 点，账面收益率为11%。6 年之后，道琼斯指数下跌了20%，账面价值却上涨了40%，账面收益率为13%。或如我当时写道的：\"1978 年养老基金经理人不愿买入股票，而现在的股价明显低于1972 年，但当时他们买入股票却创历史新高。\"当时我写这篇文章的时候，企业长期债券的收益率为9.5%左右。因此，我问了一个显而易见的问题：\"20 年以内，1999 年到期的美国主要企业发行的9.5%利率债券所带来的回报，比以账面价值购买而账面回报率可能高达13%的类似道琼斯指数的回报，更高吗？\"这个问题不言自明。",[18,219,220],{},"如果你在1979 年读了这篇文章，你可能会感到痛苦，也许会在3 年内感到非常痛苦！当时我并不擅长于预测股价短期的走势，现在依然如此。我从来都不知道股市在未来6 个月、1 年或者2 年内，会发生什么。",[18,222,223,180,226],{},[21,224,225],{},"但我认为很容易便能看到长期内将会发生的事情",[21,227,228],{},"格雷厄姆向我们讲述了其中的原因：\"短期内，市场是台投票机，但长期而言，市场却是台秤重机\"。恐惧和贪婪在投票机上扮演重要角色，但在称重机上却没有作用。",[18,230,231],{},"在我看来，在20 年的时间内，不难看到9.5%利率的债券的回报，不可能超过这种被成为道琼斯的\"伪装债券\"，这种\"伪装债券\"就是以低于票面价值(即账面价值)买入、能获得票面价值13%回报率的道琼斯股票。",[18,233,234],{},"让我来解释一下什么是\"伪装债券\"。你们多数人都知道，债券有固定的到日期，并会支付一系列的小额息票。例如，利率为6%的债券每隔半年会支付3%的息票。",[18,236,237,238],{},"而股票不同，是享有企业未来收益的金融工具，收益形式包括股息、回购股票或者在公司出售或者清算之后进行清偿。这些收益实际上就相当于\"息票\"。随着股东的更迭，获得这些\"息票\"的所有者也将发生变化。但股东作为一个整体，其总回报将取决于获得这些息票的多少和时间。",[21,239,240],{},"估算这些细节就是投资分析的全部工作。",[18,242,243],{},"然而，对于个股来说，衡量这些\"息票\"的多少非常困难。不过，对一组股票来说相对容易。正如我提到过的，在1978 年，道琼斯指数的平均账面价值为850 点，账面收益率为13%，13%的收益率只能作为一个基准，不能保证获得。如果你当时愿意在一段时间内投资股市，你实际上购买的就是一种债券，而且在1979 年，这种债券的购买价格很少超过面值，本金为891，且非常有可能获得相当于本金13%的息票。",[18,245,246],{},"如此回报怎么能不比9.5%的债券要高呢？基于这一点，股票的长期业绩一定会跑赢债券。在我职业生涯中的多数时期皆是如此。但正如凯恩斯所提醒我们的那样，股票的优势并不是必然的。只有当具备了特定的条件之后，股票才会获得这种优势。",[18,248,249],{},"让我再来谈一谈另一个关于养老基金中的从众心理——养老基金经理人的利己主义可能强化了这种心理。下表列出了4 家知名公司(这些公司是我所能选取的许多企业中的典型代表)，他们在计算每年应该为养老基金支付多少费用(或者贷记收益)时，所使用的养老基金资产的预期回报率。对养老基金的预期回报越高，企业公布的盈利就会越高。这就是养老基金会计的工作方式——为了简便起见，我希望你们能相信我。",[18,251,252],{},[126,253],{"alt":128,"src":254},"\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_-3599984423293974192.png",[18,256,257],{},"",[18,259,260],{},"如图所示，1975 年的预期是温和的：埃克森公司的预期为7%，通用电气和通用汽车的预期为6%，IBM 的预期不足5%。这些预期的怪异之处在于，按资者当时可以购买回报率为8%、能随时兑现的长期政府债券。换句话说，这些公司可以将所有的投资组合都投资于回报率为8%的无风险债券，然而却使用了更低的回报预期。到1982 年时，这些公司小幅调高了对养老基金的预期，最高的预期为7%左右。但现在你可以买到回报率为10.4%的长期政府债券。实际上你可以通过购买被称为\"STRIPS 债券\"而获得10.4%的再投资收益保证并锁定收益几十年。实际上，你的傻侄子也能管理这些退休基金，并获得高于公司所用的预期投资回报。(STRIPS 称为本息分离债券或零息债券，美国财政部1985 年为满足对零息债券的需求而设计的)",[18,262,263],{},"在政府债券回报率接近10.5%的情况下，为什么企业会假设养老基金回报率为7.5%呢？答案就是他们再次犯下了听从后视镜误导的错误：那些在1970 年代初经历过\"漂亮50\"崩盘的投资者，依然能感受到那段时期内的痛楚，他们在考虑投资回报时没能跟上市场的发展。他们无法做出必要的心理调整。",[18,265,266],{},"现在快进到2000 年，此时长期政府债券的回报率为5.4%。那么这4 家公司在2000 年的年报中对养老基金的回报作出了怎样的预期呢？他们使用了9.5%甚至10%的回报假设。",[18,268,269],{},"我喜欢打赌，并愿意同这4 家公司的任何一位CEO、精算师或者审计人员打赌，在未来15 年内，他们的平均回报率无法达到他们所假定的水平。光通过数学计算就能得出这一结论。一个基金的投资组合中，很有可能1\u002F3投资于债券，假定这是一个保守的债券组合并有一个不同的到期日，那么这些债券的投资回报率不会超过5%。那么为了获得9.5%的预期回报率，该基金2\u002F3 的股票投资组合的平均回报率必须超过11%。这是一个非常大胆的假设，尤其是基金需要支付高昂的投资费用。",[18,271,272],{},"然而，这种大胆的假设却能给公司财务报表创造奇迹。通过使用这些预期回报率，这些公司公布的盈利数据大幅高于使用低回报率假设时的盈利。那些设定这些回报率的人当然不会有所损失。在这场游戏中扮演重要角色的精算师对未来的投资回报率一无所知。然而，他们知道的是，客户希望获得高预期投资回报率。只有让客户快乐才能永远留住客户。",[18,274,275],{},"我们是在讨论大公司吗？我们来看一下通用电气，这是美国最有价值和最受崇拜的公司，我也是它的超级崇拜者。几十年来，通用电气极其出色地管理着自己的养老基金，它对养老基金的回报率预期在企业界中很具代表性。我以这家公司为例是因为这是一家杰出的企业。",[18,277,278],{},"如果我们再回到1982 年，当时通用电气认列了5.7 亿美元的养老金支出(Pension Charge)，这相当于该公司损失了20%的税前利润。去年，通用电气认列了17.4 亿美元的养老金贷记收益(Pension Credit)，相当于该公司税前利润的9%，这是电气部门6.84 亿美元利润的2.5 倍。17.4 亿美元是一大笔钱。将养老金回报假设调低至足够低的水平，你将会剔除大多数的养老金贷记收益。",[18,280,281],{},"通用电气和许多其他公司的养老金收益，都归功于1987 年美国财务会计准则委员会FASB 所颁布的一条规则，从那时开始，具备合理假设并获得所需基金业绩的公司可以将养老金贷记收益，列示在损益表上作为收益。根据高盛的统计，去年标准普尔500 中有35 家公司的养老金贷记收益在利润中的比重超过了10%，尽管在许多情况下，他们的养老金投资价值出现了缩水。",[18,283,284],{},"不幸的是，虽然养老金预期回报假设极其重要，但这一话题几乎从未在公司董事会上予以讨论(我自己是19家公司的董事会成员，但从来没有听到过有哪家公司认真讨论过这一话题)。现在对这一话题的讨论非常有必要，因为那些按照辉煌的90 年代的业绩所设定的预期回报假设，达到了极端的程度。我建议你去问问一家拥有大型固定收益养老基金的公司的首席财务官，如果将养老金预期回报率调低至6.5%，需要对公司利润作出怎样的调整。如果你希望刻薄一点的话，问问这家公司在1975 年股票和债券预期回报率均远高于当前的情况下，他们养老金期望回报假设是多少。",[18,286,287],{},"2001 年的企业年报即将发布，看看企业是否已经调低了养老金预期回报率假设将是件有趣的事情。鉴于近期的回报非常糟糕，且未来的回报也不会有所起色，我认为任何选择不调低养老金预期回报率假设的人，无论是公司CEO、审计人员还是精算师，都将冒着因误导投资者而遭到起诉的风险。作为董事会成员，如果不质疑这种乐观的假设，那他就是失职。",[18,289,290,291,294],{},"我们上个世纪的经历已经证实，",[21,292,293],{},"市场将周期性地出现极端不理性行为，这意味着那些希望取得好成绩的投资者，最好能学会如何应对下一轮非理性行为的爆发","。要想在非理性环境中保持理性，投资者需要一种解药，我认为这种解药就是定量分析法。如果你采用了定量分析，你不一定会成为卓越的投资者，但也不会陷入疯狂。",[18,296,297,298,301],{},"从宏观角度来看，定量分析法并不一定要非常复杂。下图起始于1924 年止于2001 年，显示了过去80 年",[21,299,300],{},"美国市场上所有公开交易的股票市值占美国经济GNP 的百分比","。虽然这个比率在揭示你所需知道的事情上有一定的局限性，但它可能是衡量股市任一时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。你可以看到，近两年前，这一比率上升至史无前例的水平，这应该是一个非常强烈的警示信号。",[18,303,257],{},[18,305,306],{},[126,307],{"alt":128,"src":308},"\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_-3437837597720659590.png",[18,310,311],{},"如果投资者想以快于企业增长速度的水平获得财富，那么这一比率需要不断上升。如果GNP 将以每年5%的速度增长，而你希望上市公司市值增长10%，那么你需要这一比率直线上升突破上限，而这是不可能的。",[18,313,314],{},"这张图在我看来，**如果上市公司总市值占GNP 的比率(类似于PS 市销率概念)在70-80%附近，买入股票将会很安全。如果这一比率达到200%，就像1999 年和2000 年中的一段时期内一样，那么买入股票就是在玩火。**你们可以看到，这一比率目前为133%。",[18,316,317],{},"尽管如此，与我在1999 年谈论股市时相比，这一比率已经大幅下降了。我当时预测，美国投资者在未来10年或者20 年内也许能从股市中取得7%的年回报率(包含股息，并预期通胀率为2%)，这是一个粗略的数字，尚未剔除诸如佣金及手续费等摩擦成本。我想净回报率可能会是6%。(企业利润\u002FGDP 的比率约6%)",[18,319,320],{},"今天的股市\"汉堡\"比以前更便宜了。美国经济获得了增长，而股市却在下跌，这意味着投资者的投资回报率正在上升。我现在预计长期的投资回报率将有所提高，剔除成本之后可能会达到7%左右。这是一个不错的回报率了，除非你依然根据1990 年代的回报率来推导你未来的预期。",[18,322,323],{},"沃伦·巴菲特，卡罗尔·卢米斯",[25,325,326,329],{},[18,327,328],{},"对互联网狂热持怀疑态度的亚马逊创始人兼CEO 贝索斯说：巴菲特正在传播福音。",[18,330,331],{},"沃伦巴菲特在这几页上没有提到互联网。但他确实谈到了另外两个转型行业，这两个行业长期以来未能给投资者带来回报：汽车业和航空业。只有傻瓜才会忽视他含蓄的警告：很多人将在互联网股票上损失惨重。亚马逊公司创始人兼CEO 贝索斯去年7 月在爱达荷州太阳谷参加赫伯艾伦(Herb Allen)的商业领袖聚会时，被巴菲特的演讲深深吸引，他向巴菲特询问了未能成功的汽车制造商和飞机制造商名单。贝索斯说：\"当新兴产业成为一种现象时，很多投资者都押错了宝。在谈到巴菲特那份长达70 页的汽车卡车制造商目录时，他补充说：\"我注意到，几十年前，在公司名称中使用'Motors'是一种惯例，就像今天每个人都使用'dotcom'一样。我想，这两者之间的相似之处很有趣。对于贝佐斯这样的亿万富翁来说，这一点尤其有趣，因为他曾担任对冲基金经理，对股票估值颇有研究。贝索斯还是个历史迷，他喜欢谈论大约5.5 亿年前的寒武纪生命大爆发，当时多细胞生命催生了前所未有的物种变异，随之而来的是一波物种灭绝的浪潮。贝索斯说，从这个角度来看，巴菲特关于破产企业的类比\"引起了深刻共鸣\"。现在，贝索斯正在传播巴菲特所说的福音，并敦促亚马逊员工每天都要保持警惕地奔跑。\"他说：\"我们仍有机会成为电子商务行业的一个失败者。",[333,334],"hr",{},{"title":128,"searchDepth":336,"depth":336,"links":337},2,[338],{"id":16,"depth":336,"text":16},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特在《财富》撰文分析市场运行规律，指出利率、盈利能力与投资者预期是驱动市场的三大因素。","md",{},true,38,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":5,"description":341},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi","_dusJQYdNLGo0-vq3O2iesOlaMdz_oOJ2bxLM6bVLek","buffett",[354,359,362,366,369,372,375,379,382,385,389,392,395,399,402,405,409,412,415,419,422,425,429,432,435,439,442,445,449,452,455,459,462,465,469,472,475,479,482,485,489,492,495,499,502,505,509,512,515,519,522,525,529,532,535,539,542,545,549,552,555,559,562,565,569,572,575,579,582,585,589,592,595,599,602,605,609,612,615,619,622,625,629,632,635,639,642,645,649,652,655,659,662,665,669,672,675,679,682,685,689,692,696,699,703,706,710,713,716,717,721,724,728,731,735,738,742,745,749,752,756,759,763,766,770,773,777,780,784,787,791,794,798,801,805,808,812,815,819,822,826,829,833,836,840,843,847,850,854,857,861,864,868,871,875,878,882,885,889,892,896,899,903,906,910,913,917,920,924,927,931,934,938,941,945,948,952,955,959,962,966,969,973,976,980,983,987,990,994,997,1001,1004,1008,1011,1015,1018,1022,1025,1029,1032,1036,1039,1043,1046,1050,1053,1057,1060,1064,1067,1071,1074,1078,1081,1085,1088,1092,1095,1099,1102,1106,1109,1113,1116,1120,1123,1127,1130,1134,1137,1141,1144,1148,1151,1155,1159,1163,1167,1171,1175,1179,1183,1187,1191,1195,1199,1203,1207,1211,1215,1219,1223,1227,1231,1235,1239,1243,1247,1251,1255,1259,1263,1267,1271,1275,1279,1283,1287,1291,1295,1299,1303,1307,1311,1315,1319,1323,1327,1331,1335,1339,1343,1347,1351],{"title":355,"slug":356,"category":357,"order":358},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":360,"slug":361,"category":339,"order":358},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":363,"slug":364,"category":365,"order":358},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":367,"slug":368,"category":357,"order":336},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":370,"slug":371,"category":339,"order":336},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":373,"slug":374,"category":365,"order":336},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":376,"slug":377,"category":357,"order":378},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":380,"slug":381,"category":339,"order":378},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":383,"slug":384,"category":365,"order":378},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":386,"slug":387,"category":357,"order":388},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":390,"slug":391,"category":339,"order":388},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":393,"slug":394,"category":365,"order":388},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":396,"slug":397,"category":357,"order":398},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":400,"slug":401,"category":339,"order":398},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":403,"slug":404,"category":365,"order":398},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":406,"slug":407,"category":357,"order":408},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":410,"slug":411,"category":339,"order":408},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":413,"slug":414,"category":365,"order":408},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":416,"slug":417,"category":357,"order":418},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":420,"slug":421,"category":339,"order":418},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":423,"slug":424,"category":365,"order":418},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":426,"slug":427,"category":357,"order":428},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":430,"slug":431,"category":339,"order":428},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":433,"slug":434,"category":365,"order":428},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":436,"slug":437,"category":357,"order":438},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":440,"slug":441,"category":339,"order":438},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":443,"slug":444,"category":365,"order":438},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":446,"slug":447,"category":357,"order":448},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":450,"slug":451,"category":339,"order":448},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":453,"slug":454,"category":365,"order":448},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":456,"slug":457,"category":357,"order":458},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":460,"slug":461,"category":339,"order":458},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":463,"slug":464,"category":365,"order":458},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":466,"slug":467,"category":357,"order":468},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":470,"slug":471,"category":339,"order":468},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":473,"slug":474,"category":365,"order":468},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":476,"slug":477,"category":357,"order":478},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":480,"slug":481,"category":339,"order":478},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":483,"slug":484,"category":365,"order":478},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":486,"slug":487,"category":357,"order":488},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":490,"slug":491,"category":339,"order":488},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":493,"slug":494,"category":365,"order":488},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":496,"slug":497,"category":357,"order":498},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":500,"slug":501,"category":339,"order":498},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":503,"slug":504,"category":365,"order":498},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":506,"slug":507,"category":357,"order":508},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":510,"slug":511,"category":339,"order":508},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":513,"slug":514,"category":365,"order":508},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":516,"slug":517,"category":357,"order":518},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":520,"slug":521,"category":339,"order":518},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":523,"slug":524,"category":365,"order":518},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":526,"slug":527,"category":357,"order":528},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":530,"slug":531,"category":339,"order":528},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":533,"slug":534,"category":365,"order":528},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":536,"slug":537,"category":357,"order":538},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":540,"slug":541,"category":339,"order":538},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":543,"slug":544,"category":365,"order":538},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":546,"slug":547,"category":357,"order":548},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":550,"slug":551,"category":339,"order":548},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":553,"slug":554,"category":365,"order":548},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":556,"slug":557,"category":357,"order":558},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":560,"slug":561,"category":339,"order":558},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":563,"slug":564,"category":365,"order":558},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":566,"slug":567,"category":357,"order":568},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":570,"slug":571,"category":339,"order":568},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":573,"slug":574,"category":365,"order":568},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":576,"slug":577,"category":357,"order":578},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":580,"slug":581,"category":339,"order":578},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":583,"slug":584,"category":365,"order":578},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":586,"slug":587,"category":357,"order":588},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":590,"slug":591,"category":339,"order":588},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":593,"slug":594,"category":365,"order":588},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":596,"slug":597,"category":357,"order":598},"1966年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",25,{"title":600,"slug":601,"category":339,"order":598},"巴菲特：1992年巴菲特奥马哈新闻俱乐部","ba-fei-te-1992nian-ba-fei-te-ao-ma-ha-xin-wen-ju-le-bu",{"title":603,"slug":604,"category":365,"order":598},"2018年伯克希尔股东大会","2018nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":606,"slug":607,"category":357,"order":608},"1967 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",26,{"title":610,"slug":611,"category":339,"order":608},"巴菲特：1994年内布拉斯加大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1994nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":613,"slug":614,"category":365,"order":608},"2019年伯克希尔股东大会","2019nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":616,"slug":617,"category":357,"order":618},"1967 巴菲特致股东信","1967-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",27,{"title":620,"slug":621,"category":339,"order":618},"巴菲特：1994年巴菲特谈施洛斯的信","ba-fei-te-1994nian-ba-fei-te-tan-shi-luo-si-de-xin",{"title":623,"slug":624,"category":365,"order":618},"2020年伯克希尔股东大会","2020nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":626,"slug":627,"category":357,"order":628},"1967年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",28,{"title":630,"slug":631,"category":339,"order":628},"巴菲特：1996年伯克希尔股东手册","ba-fei-te-1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-shou-ce",{"title":633,"slug":634,"category":365,"order":628},"2021年伯克希尔股东大会","2021nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":636,"slug":637,"category":357,"order":638},"1967年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",29,{"title":640,"slug":641,"category":339,"order":638},"巴菲特：1997年巴菲特谈微软的信","ba-fei-te-1997nian-ba-fei-te-tan-wei-ruan-de-xin",{"title":643,"slug":644,"category":365,"order":638},"2022年伯克希尔股东大会","2022nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":646,"slug":647,"category":357,"order":648},"1967年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1967nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",30,{"title":650,"slug":651,"category":339,"order":648},"巴菲特：1998年佛罗里达大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1998nian-fo-luo-li-da-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":653,"slug":654,"category":365,"order":648},"2023年伯克希尔股东大会","2023nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":656,"slug":657,"category":357,"order":658},"1968 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",31,{"title":660,"slug":661,"category":339,"order":658},"巴菲特：1998年华盛顿大学谈话","ba-fei-te-1998nian-hua-sheng-dun-da-xue-tan-hua",{"title":663,"slug":664,"category":365,"order":658},"2024年伯克希尔股东大会","2024nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":666,"slug":667,"category":357,"order":668},"1968 巴菲特致股东信","1968-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",32,{"title":670,"slug":671,"category":339,"order":668},"巴菲特：1999年内布拉斯加教育论坛演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-jiao-yu-lun-tan-yan-jiang",{"title":673,"slug":674,"category":365,"order":668},"2025年伯克希尔股东大会","2025nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":676,"slug":677,"category":357,"order":678},"1968年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",33,{"title":680,"slug":681,"category":339,"order":678},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特太阳谷演讲","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tai-yang-gu-yan-jiang",{"title":683,"slug":684,"category":365,"order":678},"2026年伯克希尔股东大会","2026nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":686,"slug":687,"category":357,"order":688},"1968年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1968nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",34,{"title":690,"slug":691,"category":339,"order":688},"巴菲特：1999年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-1999nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":693,"slug":694,"category":357,"order":695},"1969 巴菲特致股东信","1969-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",35,{"title":697,"slug":698,"category":339,"order":695},"巴菲特：2001年佐治亚大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2001nian-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":700,"slug":701,"category":357,"order":702},"1969年10月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":704,"slug":705,"category":339,"order":702},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":707,"slug":708,"category":357,"order":709},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":711,"slug":712,"category":339,"order":709},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":714,"slug":715,"category":357,"order":345},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":5,"slug":349,"category":339,"order":345},{"title":718,"slug":719,"category":357,"order":720},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":722,"slug":723,"category":339,"order":720},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":725,"slug":726,"category":357,"order":727},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":729,"slug":730,"category":339,"order":727},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":732,"slug":733,"category":357,"order":734},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":736,"slug":737,"category":339,"order":734},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":739,"slug":740,"category":357,"order":741},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":743,"slug":744,"category":339,"order":741},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":746,"slug":747,"category":357,"order":748},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":750,"slug":751,"category":339,"order":748},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":753,"slug":754,"category":357,"order":755},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":757,"slug":758,"category":339,"order":755},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":760,"slug":761,"category":357,"order":762},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":764,"slug":765,"category":339,"order":762},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":767,"slug":768,"category":357,"order":769},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":771,"slug":772,"category":339,"order":769},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":774,"slug":775,"category":357,"order":776},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":778,"slug":779,"category":339,"order":776},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":781,"slug":782,"category":357,"order":783},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":785,"slug":786,"category":339,"order":783},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":788,"slug":789,"category":357,"order":790},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":792,"slug":793,"category":339,"order":790},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":795,"slug":796,"category":357,"order":797},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":799,"slug":800,"category":339,"order":797},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":802,"slug":803,"category":357,"order":804},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":806,"slug":807,"category":339,"order":804},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":809,"slug":810,"category":357,"order":811},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":813,"slug":814,"category":339,"order":811},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":816,"slug":817,"category":357,"order":818},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":820,"slug":821,"category":339,"order":818},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":823,"slug":824,"category":357,"order":825},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":827,"slug":828,"category":339,"order":825},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":830,"slug":831,"category":357,"order":832},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":834,"slug":835,"category":339,"order":832},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":837,"slug":838,"category":357,"order":839},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":841,"slug":842,"category":339,"order":839},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":844,"slug":845,"category":357,"order":846},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":848,"slug":849,"category":339,"order":846},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":851,"slug":852,"category":357,"order":853},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":855,"slug":856,"category":339,"order":853},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":858,"slug":859,"category":357,"order":860},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":862,"slug":863,"category":339,"order":860},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":865,"slug":866,"category":357,"order":867},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":869,"slug":870,"category":339,"order":867},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":872,"slug":873,"category":357,"order":874},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":876,"slug":877,"category":339,"order":874},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":879,"slug":880,"category":357,"order":881},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":883,"slug":884,"category":339,"order":881},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":886,"slug":887,"category":357,"order":888},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":890,"slug":891,"category":339,"order":888},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":893,"slug":894,"category":357,"order":895},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":897,"slug":898,"category":339,"order":895},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":900,"slug":901,"category":357,"order":902},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":904,"slug":905,"category":339,"order":902},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":907,"slug":908,"category":357,"order":909},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":911,"slug":912,"category":339,"order":909},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":914,"slug":915,"category":357,"order":916},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":918,"slug":919,"category":339,"order":916},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":921,"slug":922,"category":357,"order":923},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":925,"slug":926,"category":339,"order":923},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":928,"slug":929,"category":357,"order":930},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":932,"slug":933,"category":339,"order":930},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":935,"slug":936,"category":357,"order":937},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":939,"slug":940,"category":339,"order":937},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":942,"slug":943,"category":357,"order":944},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":946,"slug":947,"category":339,"order":944},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":949,"slug":950,"category":357,"order":951},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":953,"slug":954,"category":339,"order":951},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":956,"slug":957,"category":357,"order":958},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":960,"slug":961,"category":339,"order":958},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":963,"slug":964,"category":357,"order":965},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":967,"slug":968,"category":339,"order":965},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":970,"slug":971,"category":357,"order":972},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":974,"slug":975,"category":339,"order":972},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":977,"slug":978,"category":357,"order":979},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":981,"slug":982,"category":339,"order":979},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":984,"slug":985,"category":357,"order":986},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":988,"slug":989,"category":339,"order":986},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":991,"slug":992,"category":357,"order":993},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":995,"slug":996,"category":339,"order":993},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":998,"slug":999,"category":357,"order":1000},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1002,"slug":1003,"category":339,"order":1000},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1005,"slug":1006,"category":357,"order":1007},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1009,"slug":1010,"category":339,"order":1007},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1012,"slug":1013,"category":357,"order":1014},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1016,"slug":1017,"category":339,"order":1014},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1019,"slug":1020,"category":357,"order":1021},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1023,"slug":1024,"category":339,"order":1021},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1026,"slug":1027,"category":357,"order":1028},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1030,"slug":1031,"category":339,"order":1028},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1033,"slug":1034,"category":357,"order":1035},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1037,"slug":1038,"category":339,"order":1035},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1040,"slug":1041,"category":357,"order":1042},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1044,"slug":1045,"category":339,"order":1042},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1047,"slug":1048,"category":357,"order":1049},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1051,"slug":1052,"category":339,"order":1049},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1054,"slug":1055,"category":357,"order":1056},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1058,"slug":1059,"category":339,"order":1056},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1061,"slug":1062,"category":357,"order":1063},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1065,"slug":1066,"category":339,"order":1063},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1068,"slug":1069,"category":357,"order":1070},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1072,"slug":1073,"category":339,"order":1070},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1075,"slug":1076,"category":357,"order":1077},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1079,"slug":1080,"category":339,"order":1077},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1082,"slug":1083,"category":357,"order":1084},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1086,"slug":1087,"category":339,"order":1084},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1089,"slug":1090,"category":357,"order":1091},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1093,"slug":1094,"category":339,"order":1091},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1096,"slug":1097,"category":357,"order":1098},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1100,"slug":1101,"category":339,"order":1098},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1103,"slug":1104,"category":357,"order":1105},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1107,"slug":1108,"category":339,"order":1105},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1110,"slug":1111,"category":357,"order":1112},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1114,"slug":1115,"category":339,"order":1112},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1117,"slug":1118,"category":357,"order":1119},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1121,"slug":1122,"category":339,"order":1119},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1124,"slug":1125,"category":357,"order":1126},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1128,"slug":1129,"category":339,"order":1126},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1131,"slug":1132,"category":357,"order":1133},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1135,"slug":1136,"category":339,"order":1133},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1138,"slug":1139,"category":357,"order":1140},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":1142,"slug":1143,"category":339,"order":1140},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1145,"slug":1146,"category":357,"order":1147},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":1149,"slug":1150,"category":339,"order":1147},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":1152,"slug":1153,"category":339,"order":1154},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":1156,"slug":1157,"category":339,"order":1158},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":1160,"slug":1161,"category":339,"order":1162},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":1164,"slug":1165,"category":339,"order":1166},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":1168,"slug":1169,"category":339,"order":1170},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":1172,"slug":1173,"category":339,"order":1174},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":1176,"slug":1177,"category":339,"order":1178},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":1180,"slug":1181,"category":339,"order":1182},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":1184,"slug":1185,"category":339,"order":1186},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":1188,"slug":1189,"category":339,"order":1190},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":1192,"slug":1193,"category":339,"order":1194},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":1196,"slug":1197,"category":339,"order":1198},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":1200,"slug":1201,"category":339,"order":1202},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":339,"order":1206},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2015nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",114,{"title":1208,"slug":1209,"category":339,"order":1210},"巴菲特：2015年扩大所得税抵免比提高最低工资更好","ba-fei-te-2015nian-kuo-da-suo-de-shui-di-mian-bi-ti-gao-zui-di-gong-zi-geng-hao",115,{"title":1212,"slug":1213,"category":339,"order":1214},"亚利桑那州立大学雷鸟全球领导力教授杰夫·坎宁安采访沃伦·巴菲特（2015年）","ba-fei-te-2015nian-jie-shou-ya-li-sang-na-zhou-li-da-xue-ling-dao-li-jiao-shou-jie-fu-kan-ning-an-de-zhuan-fang-shi-lu",116,{"title":1216,"slug":1217,"category":339,"order":1218},"巴菲特：2015年追忆唐基奥","ba-fei-te-2015nian-zhui-yi-tang-ji-ao",117,{"title":1220,"slug":1221,"category":339,"order":1222},"巴菲特：2015慈善承诺倡议","ba-fei-te-2015ci-shan-cheng-nuo-chang-yi",118,{"title":1224,"slug":1225,"category":339,"order":1226},"巴菲特：2016年对话八所商学院学生2016","ba-fei-te-2016nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-2016",119,{"title":1228,"slug":1229,"category":339,"order":1230},"标题：《巴菲特：2017 年哥伦比亚大学高校面谈——人生最美好的事是什么？》","ba-fei-te-2017-nian-ge-lun-bi-ya-da-xue-gao-xiao-mian-tan-ren-sheng-zui-mei-hao-de-shi-shi-shi-me",120,{"title":1232,"slug":1233,"category":339,"order":1234},"巴菲特：2017年对话北京大学学生：最好的投资是投资自己","ba-fei-te-2017nian-dui-hua-bei-jing-da-xue-xue-sheng-zui-hao-de-tou-zi-shi-tou-zi-zi-ji",121,{"title":1236,"slug":1237,"category":339,"order":1238},"巴菲特：2017年接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",122,{"title":1240,"slug":1241,"category":339,"order":1242},"巴菲特：2017年接受PBS NEWS专访","ba-fei-te-2017nian-jie-shou-pbs-newszhuan-fang",123,{"title":1244,"slug":1245,"category":339,"order":1246},"巴菲特：2017年查理·罗斯访谈：比尔·盖茨与沃伦·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2017nian-cha-li-luo-si-fang-tan-bi-er-gai-ci-yu-wo-lun-ba-fei-te",124,{"title":1248,"slug":1249,"category":339,"order":1250},"巴菲特：2017年美国的未来","ba-fei-te-2017nian-mei-guo-de-wei-lai",125,{"title":1252,"slug":1253,"category":339,"order":1254},"巴菲特：2018年再度邀请北大光华学子共进午餐问答全记录","ba-fei-te-2018nian-zai-du-yao-qing-bei-da-guang-hua-xue-zi-gong-jin-wu-can-wen-da-quan-ji-lu",126,{"title":1256,"slug":1257,"category":339,"order":1258},"巴菲特：2018年时代周刊-分享美国财富的秘密","ba-fei-te-2018nian-shi-dai-zhou-kan-fen-xiang-mei-guo-cai-fu-de-mi-mi",127,{"title":1260,"slug":1261,"category":339,"order":1262},"巴菲特：2019年5月雅虎财经专访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-5yue-ya-hu-cai-jing-zhuan-fang",128,{"title":1264,"slug":1265,"category":339,"order":1266},"巴菲特：2019年与芒格及比尔盖茨接受CNBC采访","ba-fei-te-2019nian-yu-mang-ge-ji-bi-er-gai-ci-jie-shou-cnbccai-fang",129,{"title":1268,"slug":1269,"category":339,"order":1270},"巴菲特：2020年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2020nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",130,{"title":1272,"slug":1273,"category":339,"order":1274},"巴菲特：2020年给内布拉斯加大学林肯分校2020届毕业生的建议","ba-fei-te-2020nian-gei-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-2020jie-bi-ye-sheng-de-jian-yi",131,{"title":1276,"slug":1277,"category":339,"order":1278},"巴菲特：2021年专访《成为巴菲特》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-zhuan-fang-cheng-wei-ba-fei-te",132,{"title":1280,"slug":1281,"category":339,"order":1282},"巴菲特：2021年巴菲特芒格接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2021nian-ba-fei-te-mang-ge-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",133,{"title":1284,"slug":1285,"category":339,"order":1286},"巴菲特：2021年让观众无言以对 !有史以来最鼓舞人心的演讲之一","ba-fei-te-2021nian-rang-guan-zhong-wu-yan-yi-dui-you-shi-yi-lai-zui-gu-wu-ren-xin-de-yan-jiang-zhi-yi",134,{"title":1288,"slug":1289,"category":339,"order":1290},"巴菲特：2021年采访《沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略：如何像传奇一样生活和投资（完整访谈）》","ba-fei-te-2021nian-cai-fang-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-tou-zi-ce-lue-ru-he-xiang-chuan-qi-yi-yang-sheng-huo-he-tou-zi-wan-zheng-fang-tan",135,{"title":1292,"slug":1293,"category":339,"order":1294},"巴菲特：2022年32 届年度格雷厄姆和多德早餐会","ba-fei-te-2022nian-32-jie-nian-du-ge-lei-e-mu-he-duo-de-zao-can-hui",136,{"title":1296,"slug":1297,"category":339,"order":1298},"巴菲特：2022年和查理罗斯对谈","ba-fei-te-2022nian-he-cha-li-luo-si-dui-tan",137,{"title":1300,"slug":1301,"category":339,"order":1302},"巴菲特：2023年 查理芒格：伯克希尔的总设计师","ba-fei-te-2023nian-cha-li-mang-ge-bo-ke-xi-er-de-zong-she-ji-shi",138,{"title":1304,"slug":1305,"category":339,"order":1306},"巴菲特：初学者如何投资--3 条简单的规则","ba-fei-te-2023nian-chu-xue-zhe-ru-he-tou-zi-3-tiao-jian-dan-de-gui-ze",139,{"title":1308,"slug":1309,"category":339,"order":1310},"巴菲特：2023年接受CNBC专访","ba-fei-te-2023nian-jie-shou-cnbczhuan-fang",140,{"title":1312,"slug":1313,"category":339,"order":1314},"巴菲特：每个投资者都会犯的 10 个错误","ba-fei-te-2023nian-mei-ge-tou-zi-zhe-du-hui-fan-de-10-ge-cuo-wu",141,{"title":1316,"slug":1317,"category":339,"order":1318},"巴菲特：2025年接受cbs采访","ba-fei-te-2025nian-jie-shou-cbscai-fang",142,{"title":1320,"slug":1321,"category":339,"order":1322},"2026伯克希尔股东大会 CNBC专访巴菲特（完整纯中文）","2026bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui-cnbczhuan-fang-ba-fei-te",143,{"title":1324,"slug":1325,"category":339,"order":1326},"巴菲特：2026年最新采访 CNBC《财经论谈》","ba-fei-te-2026nian-zui-xin-cai-fang-cnbc-cai-jing-lun-tan",144,{"title":1328,"slug":1329,"category":339,"order":1330},"伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来","bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai",145,{"title":1332,"slug":1333,"category":339,"order":1334},"巴菲特72条投资经典语录","ba-fei-te-72tiao-tou-zi-jing-dian-yu-lu",146,{"title":1336,"slug":1337,"category":339,"order":1338},"巴菲特：你应该了解珠宝生意","ba-fei-te-ni-ying-gai-liao-jie-zhu-bao-sheng-yi",147,{"title":1340,"slug":1341,"category":339,"order":1342},"巴菲特：如何建立能力圈","ba-fei-te-ru-he-jian-li-neng-li-quan",148,{"title":1344,"slug":1345,"category":339,"order":1346},"巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑","ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji",149,{"title":1348,"slug":1349,"category":339,"order":1350},"康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值","kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi",150,{"title":1352,"slug":1353,"category":339,"order":1354},"考夫曼：Glenair 企业文化","kao-fu-man-glenair-qi-ye-wen-hua",151,[1356,1360,1363,1366,1369,1372,1375,1378,1381,1385,1389,1392,1395,1398,1401,1404,1407,1410,1413,1416,1419,1422,1425,1428,1431,1435,1438,1441,1444,1447,1450,1453,1456,1459,1462,1466,1469,1472,1475,1478,1481,1484,1487,1491,1494,1497,1500,1503,1506,1509,1512,1515,1518,1521,1524,1527,1530,1533,1536,1539,1542,1545,1548,1551,1554,1557,1560,1563,1566,1569,1572,1577,1581,1585,1589,1593,1597,1601,1605,1609,1613,1617,1621,1625,1629,1633,1637,1641,1645,1649,1653],{"title":1357,"slug":1358,"category":1359,"order":358},"本分","benfen","核心哲学",{"title":1361,"slug":1362,"category":1359,"order":336},"平常心","pingchangxin",{"title":1364,"slug":1365,"category":1359,"order":378},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing",{"title":1367,"slug":1368,"category":1359,"order":388},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui",{"title":1370,"slug":1371,"category":1359,"order":398},"能力圈","nengliquan",{"title":1373,"slug":1374,"category":1359,"order":408},"不做什么","buzuoshenme",{"title":1376,"slug":1377,"category":1359,"order":418},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou",{"title":1379,"slug":1380,"category":1359,"order":428},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang",{"title":1382,"slug":1383,"category":1384,"order":438},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","投资理念",{"title":1386,"slug":1387,"category":1388,"order":448},"负债","fuzhai","财务指标",{"title":1390,"slug":1391,"category":1384,"order":448},"商业模式","shangyemoshi",{"title":1393,"slug":1394,"category":1384,"order":458},"护城河","huchenghe",{"title":1396,"slug":1397,"category":1388,"order":458},"净现金","jingxianjin",{"title":1399,"slug":1400,"category":1388,"order":468},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing",{"title":1402,"slug":1403,"category":1384,"order":468},"现金流","xianjinliu",{"title":1405,"slug":1406,"category":1388,"order":478},"真实利润","zhenshilirun",{"title":1408,"slug":1409,"category":1384,"order":478},"折现","zhexian",{"title":1411,"slug":1412,"category":1384,"order":488},"安全边际","anquanbianji",{"title":1414,"slug":1415,"category":1388,"order":488},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan",{"title":1417,"slug":1418,"category":1384,"order":498},"基本面","jibenmian",{"title":1420,"slug":1421,"category":1384,"order":508},"机会成本","jihuichengben",{"title":1423,"slug":1424,"category":1384,"order":518},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou",{"title":1426,"slug":1427,"category":1384,"order":528},"投机","touji",{"title":1429,"slug":1430,"category":1384,"order":538},"止损","zhisun",{"title":1432,"slug":1433,"category":1434,"order":548},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业经营",{"title":1436,"slug":1437,"category":1434,"order":558},"品牌","pinpai",{"title":1439,"slug":1440,"category":1434,"order":568},"差异化","chayihua",{"title":1442,"slug":1443,"category":1434,"order":578},"用户体验","yonghutiyan",{"title":1445,"slug":1446,"category":1434,"order":588},"渠道","qudao",{"title":1448,"slug":1449,"category":1434,"order":598},"平台","pingtai",{"title":1451,"slug":1452,"category":1434,"order":608},"生态系统","shengtaixitong",{"title":1454,"slug":1455,"category":1434,"order":618},"单一产品","danyichanpin",{"title":1457,"slug":1458,"category":1434,"order":628},"造钟人","zaozhongren",{"title":1460,"slug":1461,"category":1434,"order":638},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu",{"title":1463,"slug":1464,"category":1465,"order":648},"进取心","jinquxin","品格与心性",{"title":1467,"slug":1468,"category":1465,"order":658},"耐心","naixin",{"title":1470,"slug":1471,"category":1465,"order":668},"责任心","zerenxin",{"title":1473,"slug":1474,"category":1465,"order":678},"爱心","aixin",{"title":1476,"slug":1477,"category":1465,"order":688},"信誉","xinyu",{"title":1479,"slug":1480,"category":1465,"order":695},"正直","zhengzhi",{"title":1482,"slug":1483,"category":1465,"order":702},"理性","lixing",{"title":1485,"slug":1486,"category":1465,"order":709},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi",{"title":1488,"slug":1489,"category":1490,"order":1147},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","访谈实录",{"title":1492,"slug":1493,"category":1490,"order":1154},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua",{"title":1495,"slug":1496,"category":1490,"order":1158},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu",{"title":1498,"slug":1499,"category":1490,"order":1162},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang",{"title":1501,"slug":1502,"category":1490,"order":1166},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang",{"title":1504,"slug":1505,"category":1490,"order":1170},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing",{"title":1507,"slug":1508,"category":1490,"order":1174},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong",{"title":1510,"slug":1511,"category":1490,"order":1178},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan",{"title":1513,"slug":1514,"category":1490,"order":1182},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang",{"title":1516,"slug":1517,"category":1490,"order":1186},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou",{"title":1519,"slug":1520,"category":1490,"order":1190},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu",{"title":1522,"slug":1523,"category":1490,"order":1194},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang",{"title":1525,"slug":1526,"category":1490,"order":1198},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan",{"title":1528,"slug":1529,"category":1490,"order":1202},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu",{"title":1531,"slug":1532,"category":1490,"order":1206},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu",{"title":1534,"slug":1535,"category":1490,"order":1210},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo",{"title":1537,"slug":1538,"category":1490,"order":1214},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang",{"title":1540,"slug":1541,"category":1490,"order":1218},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan",{"title":1543,"slug":1544,"category":1490,"order":1222},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu",{"title":1546,"slug":1547,"category":1490,"order":1226},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus",{"title":1549,"slug":1550,"category":1490,"order":1230},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh",{"title":1552,"slug":1553,"category":1490,"order":1234},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj",{"title":1555,"slug":1556,"category":1490,"order":1238},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao",{"title":1558,"slug":1559,"category":1490,"order":1242},"2013年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang",{"title":1561,"slug":1562,"category":1490,"order":1246},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang",{"title":1564,"slug":1565,"category":1490,"order":1250},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban",{"title":1567,"slug":1568,"category":1490,"order":1254},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu",{"title":1570,"slug":1571,"category":1490,"order":1258},"2025年： 方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing",{"title":1573,"slug":1574,"category":1575,"order":1576},"问答录：第一章 投资大道","dadaotouziwendalu-diyizhangtouzidadao","投资问答录",200,{"title":1578,"slug":1579,"category":1575,"order":1580},"问答录：第二章 商业模式和企业文化","dadaotouziwendalu-dierzhangshangyemoshiheqiyewenhua",201,{"title":1582,"slug":1583,"category":1575,"order":1584},"问答录：第三章 公司点评","dadaotouziwendalu-disanzhanggongsidianping",202,{"title":1586,"slug":1587,"category":1575,"order":1588},"问答录：第四章 人生箴言","dadaotouziwendalu-disizhangrenshengzhenyan",203,{"title":1590,"slug":1591,"category":1575,"order":1592},"问答录：第五章 演讲与访谈","dadaotouziwendalu-diwuzhangyanjiangyufangtan",204,{"title":1594,"slug":1595,"category":1575,"order":1596},"问答录：第六章 更新","dadaotouziwendalu-diliuzhangduzhegengxin",205,{"title":1598,"slug":1599,"category":1575,"order":1600},"商业逻辑篇：第1节：伟大企业","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di1jie-weidaqiye",401,{"title":1602,"slug":1603,"category":1575,"order":1604},"商业逻辑篇：第2节：商业模式","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di2jie-shangyemoshi",402,{"title":1606,"slug":1607,"category":1575,"order":1608},"商业逻辑篇：第3节：企业文化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di3jie-qiyewenhua",403,{"title":1610,"slug":1611,"category":1575,"order":1612},"商业逻辑篇：第4节：产品、差异化与创新","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di4jie-chanpin-chayihua-yu-chuangxin",404,{"title":1614,"slug":1615,"category":1575,"order":1616},"商业逻辑篇：第5节：品牌、营销与广告","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di5jie-pinpai-yingxiao-yu-guanggao",405,{"title":1618,"slug":1619,"category":1575,"order":1620},"商业逻辑篇：第6节：收购和多元化","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di6jie-shougouheduoyuanhua",406,{"title":1622,"slug":1623,"category":1575,"order":1624},"商业逻辑篇：第7节：Stop doing list（不为清单）","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-di7jie-stop-doing-list-buweiqingdan",407,{"title":1626,"slug":1627,"category":1575,"order":1628},"投资问答录商业逻辑篇：前言：买股票就是买公司","duanyongping-shangyeluoji-qianyan-maiqushoujiiumaishangsi",408,{"title":1630,"slug":1631,"category":1575,"order":1632},"投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念","duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian",410,{"title":1634,"slug":1635,"category":1575,"order":1636},"投资逻辑篇：第2章：投资理解","duanyongping-touziluoji-di2jie-touzilijie",411,{"title":1638,"slug":1639,"category":1575,"order":1640},"投资问答录：第3章 golf和投资","duanyongping-touziluoji-di3zhang-golfhetouzi",412,{"title":1642,"slug":1643,"category":1575,"order":1644},"投资逻辑篇：第4章 财务理解","duanyongping-touziwendalu-touziluoji-di4zhang-caiwulijie",413,{"title":1646,"slug":1647,"category":1575,"order":1648},"投资逻辑篇：第5章：估值逻辑","duanyongping-touziluoji-di5zhang-guzhiluoji",414,{"title":1650,"slug":1651,"category":1575,"order":1652},"投资逻辑篇：第6章 投资方法论","duanyongping-touziluoji-di6zhang-touzifangfalun",415,{"title":1654,"slug":1655,"category":1575,"order":1656},"投资逻辑篇：第7章：案例分析","duanyongping-touziluoji-di7zhang-anlifenxi",416,[1658,1661,1664,1667,1671,1675,1678,1682,1684,1687,1690,1693,1697,1700,1703,1706,1709,1713,1716,1719,1722,1725,1729,1732,1735,1737,1740,1743,1746,1749,1752,1755,1758,1761,1764,1767,1770,1773,1776,1779,1782,1785,1788,1791,1794,1797,1800,1803,1806,1809,1812,1815,1818,1821,1824,1827,1830,1833,1836,1839,1842,1845,1848,1851,1854,1857,1861,1864,1867,1870,1873,1877,1880,1883,1886],{"title":1370,"slug":1659,"category":1660,"order":358},"ability-circle","决策与战略",{"title":1662,"slug":1663,"category":1660,"order":336},"逆向思维","inversion",{"title":1420,"slug":1665,"category":1666,"order":378},"opportunity-cost","经济学",{"title":1668,"slug":1669,"category":1670,"order":388},"复利","compound-interest","数学与概率论",{"title":1672,"slug":1673,"category":1674,"order":398},"激励机制","incentives","心理学",{"title":1676,"slug":1677,"category":1670,"order":408},"概率思维","probabilistic-thinking",{"title":1679,"slug":1680,"category":1681,"order":418},"二阶效应","second-order-effects","哲学与逻辑",{"title":1411,"slug":1683,"category":1660,"order":428},"margin-of-safety",{"title":1685,"slug":1686,"category":1674,"order":438},"心理误判","psychology-of-misjudgment",{"title":1688,"slug":1689,"category":1660,"order":448},"检查清单","checklist",{"title":1691,"slug":1692,"category":1666,"order":458},"规模优势","scale-advantage",{"title":1694,"slug":1695,"category":1696,"order":468},"冗余与容错","redundancy","工程学\u002F系统",{"title":1698,"slug":1699,"category":1670,"order":478},"排列组合","combinatorics",{"title":1701,"slug":1702,"category":1670,"order":488},"费马-帕斯卡","fermat-pascal",{"title":1704,"slug":1705,"category":1670,"order":498},"均值回归","regression-to-the-mean",{"title":1707,"slug":1708,"category":1670,"order":508},"量化分析","quantitative-analysis",{"title":1710,"slug":1711,"category":1712,"order":518},"临界点\u002F相变","critical-point-phase-transition","物理学",{"title":1714,"slug":1715,"category":1712,"order":528},"平衡态","equilibrium",{"title":1717,"slug":1718,"category":1712,"order":538},"熵增定律","entropy",{"title":1720,"slug":1721,"category":1712,"order":548},"能量守恒","conservation-of-energy",{"title":1723,"slug":1724,"category":1712,"order":558},"杠杆原理","leverage",{"title":1726,"slug":1727,"category":1728,"order":568},"自然选择","natural-selection","生物学\u002F进化论",{"title":1730,"slug":1731,"category":1728,"order":578},"物竞天择","competition-for-resources",{"title":1733,"slug":1734,"category":1728,"order":588},"进化思维","evolutionary-thinking",{"title":1451,"slug":1736,"category":1728,"order":598},"ecosystem",{"title":1738,"slug":1739,"category":1674,"order":608},"爱好倾向","liking-tendency",{"title":1741,"slug":1742,"category":1674,"order":618},"讨厌倾向","disliking-tendency",{"title":1744,"slug":1745,"category":1674,"order":628},"避免怀疑倾向","doubt-avoidance-tendency",{"title":1747,"slug":1748,"category":1674,"order":638},"一致性倾向","consistency-tendency",{"title":1750,"slug":1751,"category":1674,"order":648},"好奇心倾向","curiosity-tendency",{"title":1753,"slug":1754,"category":1674,"order":658},"康德式公平","kantian-fairness",{"title":1756,"slug":1757,"category":1674,"order":668},"艳羡\u002F妒忌倾向","envy-jealousy-tendency",{"title":1759,"slug":1760,"category":1674,"order":678},"反馈倾向","reciprocation-tendency",{"title":1762,"slug":1763,"category":1674,"order":688},"权威误导","authority-misinfluence",{"title":1765,"slug":1766,"category":1674,"order":695},"重视理由","reason-respecting-tendency",{"title":1768,"slug":1769,"category":1674,"order":702},"过度乐观","over-optimism",{"title":1771,"slug":1772,"category":1674,"order":709},"损失厌恶","loss-aversion",{"title":1774,"slug":1775,"category":1674,"order":345},"否认倾向","denial-tendency",{"title":1777,"slug":1778,"category":1674,"order":720},"过度反应","overreaction-tendency",{"title":1780,"slug":1781,"category":1674,"order":727},"社群影响","social-influence",{"title":1783,"slug":1784,"category":1674,"order":734},"压力倾向","stress-influence-tendency",{"title":1786,"slug":1787,"category":1674,"order":741},"物质主义","materialism-tendency",{"title":1789,"slug":1790,"category":1674,"order":748},"废话倾向","twaddle-tendency",{"title":1792,"slug":1793,"category":1674,"order":755},"确认偏误","confirmation-bias",{"title":1795,"slug":1796,"category":1674,"order":762},"锚定效应","anchoring-effect",{"title":1798,"slug":1799,"category":1674,"order":769},"现时偏差","present-bias",{"title":1801,"slug":1802,"category":1674,"order":776},"贪婪倾向","greed-tendency",{"title":1804,"slug":1805,"category":1666,"order":783},"边际成本\u002F收益","marginal-cost-benefit",{"title":1807,"slug":1808,"category":1666,"order":790},"供需关系","supply-and-demand",{"title":1810,"slug":1811,"category":1666,"order":797},"帕累托最优","pareto-optimality",{"title":1813,"slug":1814,"category":1666,"order":804},"竞争性毁灭","creative-destruction",{"title":1816,"slug":1817,"category":1660,"order":811},"双轨分析","two-track-analysis",{"title":1819,"slug":1820,"category":1660,"order":818},"非线性思维","nonlinear-thinking",{"title":1822,"slug":1823,"category":1660,"order":825},"极化思考","extreme-thinking",{"title":1825,"slug":1826,"category":1660,"order":832},"必要功","necessary-work",{"title":1828,"slug":1829,"category":1696,"order":839},"停机问题","halting-problem",{"title":1831,"slug":1832,"category":1696,"order":846},"闭环系统","closed-loop-system",{"title":1834,"slug":1835,"category":1696,"order":853},"故障安全","fail-safe",{"title":1837,"slug":1838,"category":1696,"order":860},"反向设计","reverse-design",{"title":1840,"slug":1841,"category":1696,"order":867},"瓶颈分析","bottleneck-analysis",{"title":1843,"slug":1844,"category":1681,"order":874},"第一性原理","first-principles",{"title":1846,"slug":1847,"category":1681,"order":881},"证伪思维","falsification",{"title":1849,"slug":1850,"category":1681,"order":888},"奥卡姆剃刀","occams-razor",{"title":1852,"slug":1853,"category":1681,"order":895},"中道思维","middle-way",{"title":1855,"slug":1856,"category":1681,"order":902},"不可知论","agnosticism",{"title":1858,"slug":1859,"category":1860,"order":909},"大数定律","law-of-large-numbers","统计学",{"title":1862,"slug":1863,"category":1860,"order":916},"样本偏差","sample-bias",{"title":1865,"slug":1866,"category":1860,"order":923},"相关性≠因果","correlation-not-causation",{"title":1868,"slug":1869,"category":1860,"order":930},"幸存者偏差","survivorship-bias",{"title":1871,"slug":1872,"category":1860,"order":937},"基本比率","base-rate",{"title":1874,"slug":1875,"category":1876,"order":944},"社会认同","social-proof","社会学",{"title":1878,"slug":1879,"category":1876,"order":951},"部落本能","tribal-instinct",{"title":1881,"slug":1882,"category":1876,"order":958},"金蛋定律","golden-egg-rule",{"title":1884,"slug":1885,"category":1876,"order":965},"互利共生","mutualism",{"title":1887,"slug":1888,"category":1876,"order":972},"激励传导","incentive-transmission",1778147266211]