[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2007},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":472,"library-sidebar-dao":1473,"library-sidebar-models":1775},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":458,"date":459,"description":460,"extension":461,"meta":462,"navigation":463,"order":464,"path":465,"seo":466,"seoDescription":460,"seoTitle":467,"slug":468,"stem":469,"__hash__":470,"_collection":471},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu.md","巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":440},"minimark",[9,13,18,22,28,31,39,42,47,50,53,56,59,62,66,69,72,75,78,81,84,87,91,99,102,105,111,116,123,126,129,132,135,139,142,145,148,151,154,157,160,164,171,174,181,184,188,202,205,208,212,223,234,237,243,249,256,261,264,267,273,278,282,293,296,303,313,320,330,336,343,347,353,359,366,370,377,380,387,390,394,397,400,403,410,413,416,419,422,425,428,431,434,437],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特对话奥奎尔俱乐部2004","巴菲特：对话奥奎尔俱乐部2004",[19,20,21],"p",{},"2004 年春",[23,24,25],"blockquote",{},[19,26,27],{},"巴菲特在内布拉斯加州奥马哈参加Oquirrh Institute 会员推广活动",[19,29,30],{},"沃伦·巴菲特：大家可能还记得，去年对内布拉斯加队来说不是个好年景，是近四年里最差的一年。情况糟糕到我们的教练Frank Solich 在面对这样一群人讲话时，请求大家帮忙。他说：\"我们真正需要的是一名全职后卫。我心目中的人选身高大概6 英尺4 英寸(约1.93m)，体重130 磅(约60KG)。这对一名全职后卫来说，要求可能有点奇怪，但只有这样的人，才能在防线打开时突破防线。\"于是，我们找到了这样的后卫。",[19,32,33,34,38],{},"内布拉斯加州有很多学生运动员，有一天我问其中一个人：\"你们头盔上那个大大的N 代表什么？\"他回答说Knowledge。他的答案很接近了。今天我来这里，就是为了回答大家的问题。我自己先问一个，那就是\"你是怎么参与到施瓦辛格的竞选活动中的？\"答案是：\"我赢了一场模仿秀比赛。萨达姆·侯赛因有替身，Arnold 觉得他也需要一个。\"州长在讲话中提到了一些内容，这让我想起人们有时会问我的一个问题：\"我该如何步入婚姻殿堂？年轻人会问我，怎样才能确保自己的婚姻长久？我该在配偶身上寻找什么特质？\"这是个很重要的问题。人们会问，是应该看重幽默感、性格、智慧还是外貌呢？我告诉他们：\"如果你真的想要一段长久的婚姻，那就找个你期望不高的人。\"我很高兴州长带着这种态度前往华盛顿。(施瓦辛格2003 年8 月任命巴菲特担任他的州长竞选班子的高级经济顾问。1968 年施瓦辛格来到加州，通过经营健身业务已经是百万富翁了，70 年代进入影视行业成为好莱坞史上片酬最高最多产的明星之一，他将收入投入商业地产、私募股权和股票",[35,36,37],"span",{},"星巴克\u002F谷歌\u002FAMC","获得巨大回报。)",[19,40,41],{},"现在，咱们聊聊大家心里在想什么吧，什么问题都可以问。我们今天的谈话不做记录，不过，实际上我看到后面有摄像机。我会尽量坦诚地回答大家的问题。",[43,44,46],"h3",{"id":45},"riordan-市长沃伦我们常谈到贫富差距问题由于种种原因美国中产阶级的人数在不断减少过去30年里中产阶级的购买力也在持续下降这会导致什么后果呢您认为10-年后美国会变成什么样子","Riordan 市长：沃伦，我们常谈到贫富差距问题。由于种种原因，美国中产阶级的人数在不断减少，过去30年里，中产阶级的购买力也在持续下降。这会导致什么后果呢？您认为10 年后美国会变成什么样子？",[19,48,49],{},"巴菲特：我想说，如果没有累进所得税制度和遗产税，复利的特性以及经济越来越专业化的趋势，会使贫富差距越来越大。回顾美国几百年前，那时我们只有400 万人口，智商90 的人能胜任国内80%的工作，不管是务农、做手艺活，还是其他工作。随着经济变得更加专业化、现代化，高收入工作与其他工作相比，回报和职业前景越来越倾向于那些具备某种天赋，或者有特殊才能的人，他们能够在超过10 万亿美元规模的经济中大展宏图。这样一来，贫富差距就会不断扩大。基本上，美国建立了一种制度，通过税收体系，以各种方式来调节市场体系所产生的财富分配。如果像多年前那样，没有任何约束，像我家这样的家庭，或者其他有一定优势的人，他们积累财富的速度会持续超过其他人。",[19,51,52],{},"这在娱乐行业体现得很明显。如今，如果你像Frank Sinatra 那样，比别人有优势，比如有能力为2.8 亿人唱歌；或者你是重量级拳王，能让2.8 亿人在电视上看到你，不管具体数字是多少，与普通劳动者的收入相比，你获得的收入要比50 年或75 年前高得多。所有的技术进步、生产力提升，以及纯粹的市场体系，都在加剧贫富分化。在过去10 年左右，特别是近5 年，美国通过累进所得税和遗产税，在一定程度上试图缓解这种不平等，但现在情况出现了逆转，我认为长此以往可能会带来一些非常不利的后果。",[19,54,55],{},"基本上，我很幸运能在这个时代出生在美国。我天生擅长资本配置，这并非我的功劳，我生来就是这样。我在这方面努力过，但在美国乃至全世界，人们都在为自己的工作努力奋斗。在庞大的资本主义经济体系中，我只是抓住一些机会，就能积累巨额财富。要是我出生在200 年前，就不会有这样的机会；要是出生在孟加拉国，更不可能做到。",[19,57,58],{},"对于那些认为一切成就都靠自己的人，我给他们提出这样一个假设：假如他们在娘胎里时是同卵双胞胎中的一个，有着相同的DNA、相同的天赋，一切都一样。这时，一个精灵出现，说你们其中一个会出生在孟加拉国，另一个会出生在美国。人的所有特质都相同，那么他们愿意拿出一生中收入的多高比例，来成为那个出生在美国的人呢？竞价肯定会很激烈。我是说，所有那些被认为能让我们走向成功的运气、勇气之类的因素，就像Horatio Alger 小说里描述的那样，在孟加拉国可不像在美国这么管用。美国社会为那些恰好具备合适天赋的人提供了巨大的机会，与世界其他地方以及100 年前相比，在这里生活的人能获得相当不错的生活。但是，如果没有税收制度，贫富差距将会进一步扩大。在我看来，这就是政府存在的意义之一。",[19,60,61],{},"美国的市场体系是一个很棒的体系。看看美国，这很有意思。1790 年，美国人口不到400 万，欧洲有1 亿人口，中国有3 亿人口。美国只是个小国，我们的智商可能与中国人、欧洲人没有差异，大家都拥有自然资源。但不知怎么的，这400 万人口创造的GDP 占到了世界的近35%，尽管我们的人口仅占世界的4%。这是怎么做到的呢？在这场持续了210 年的竞赛中，我们与其他地方同样聪明的3 亿人竞争。但不知怎么的，我们的制度带来了如此惊人的财富。我认为有两个最重要的因素，尽管它们并不完美。一是，我们拥有更多的机会平等，让合适的人能够脱颖而出。在科学、商业、医学等各个领域，最优秀的人最终能进入\"奥林匹克队伍\"，因为在这些领域，没有人为的障碍阻挡人才崭露头角。二是，市场体系，它激励人们生产和购买所需的东西，带来了许多好处，但随着时间的推移，也导致了财富分配的巨大不平等。如果没有遗产税，仅靠复利，我的孙子们最终就能拥有相当大比例的财富。我们需要一些措施来调节市场体系带来的这种结果，但又不能破坏市场体系。我们希望先让人们去创造财富，留住Andy Grove、Michael Dell 这样的人才，即使他们已经拥有了生活所需的一切，也要让他们继续工作。我们需要他们的能力和才华，因为这对每个人都有益。但同时我们也需要些措施来防止财富过度集中。",[43,63,65],{"id":64},"提问顺着该话题我听一位来自印度演讲者说过美国繁荣的原因在印度如果你的父亲是化学工程师那你很可能也会成为化学工程师而在美国受基督教和资本主义的影响人们认为自己可以追求并应该得到想要的一切我的问题是我们应该如何应对恐怖主义威胁现在有些人因为我们的财富和自由而仇恨我们","提问：顺着该话题，我听一位来自印度演讲者说过美国繁荣的原因。在印度，如果你的父亲是化学工程师，那你很可能也会成为化学工程师；而在美国，受基督教和资本主义的影响，人们认为自己可以追求并应该得到想要的一切。我的问题是，我们应该如何应对恐怖主义威胁？现在，有些人因为我们的财富和自由而仇恨我们。",[19,67,68],{},"巴菲特：这是个极其严峻的问题。1945 年之后我就有这种感觉，因为世界上总会有一些精神错乱、狂妄自大、纯粹邪恶，或是宗教狂热分子。总会有一定比例的反社会者，几千年前，他们伤害同伴的能力，不过是朝人扔块石头，后来逐渐发展到使用弓箭、枪支等武器。但在1945 年之前，这些误入歧途的人造成伤害的能力虽然在增强，但还在可容忍的范围内。从广岛原子弹爆炸那一刻起，那些精神错乱的人，不管是通过控制政府，还是其他方式，伤害他人的能力呈指数级增长。",[19,70,71],{},"实施恐怖袭击需要四个条件：意图、知识、材料和投放能力。意图在世界上一直都存在，总会有嫉妒别人的人、疯狂的人等等。知识已经传播开来，1945 年，我们垄断了核技术，谢天谢地，我们做到了。因为如果希特勒不是那么反犹，他很可能比我们先拥有核武器。但我们率先掌握了这项技术。你们大多数人可能不记得了，希特勒曾向伦敦发射V-1 和V-2 导弹，但那些导弹的弹头威力不大。要是他先拥有了核武器，世界可能就会大不相同，甚至不复存在。",[19,73,74],{},"自1945 年以来，我们曾垄断的这项惊人的核知识已经扩散。巴基斯坦、印度掌握了相关技术，甚至一些组织也有了相关能力。在核领域，获取材料更困难，但在生物领域，材料获取相对容易，造成的危害却一样严重。现在有自杀式炸弹袭击者，制造这些袭击的材料成本很低，相关知识也很容易获取。这是一个我们目前还没有完美解决方案的问题，我们所能做的，就是尽量降低有人大规模实施恐怖袭击的可能性。但这类袭击肯定会发生，在我看来，核袭击和生物袭击都会发生。未来10 年，生物袭击发生的可能性可能比核袭击更大。事实上，很多人都有能力发动袭击。我从事保险行业，深知任何可能发生的事情，最终都会发生。",[19,76,77],{},"回顾美国过去300 年的历史，你知道美国本土发生的最大地震在哪里吗？是在密苏里州的新马德里New Madrid，震级8.6 级，密西西比河倒流，远在波士顿的教堂钟声都响了起来。还有一次大地震发生在南卡罗来纳州的哥伦比亚，震级6.x，造成七八十人死亡，不过现在人们差不多都忘了这件事。随着时间的推移，各种事情都会发生。就好比从一个装有1 万个白球和4 个黑球的桶里摸球，最终总会摸到黑球。在古巴导弹危机期间，我们差点就遭遇了一场大灾难，局势十分危急。我们发出了第二条消息，之后又与美国广播公司的人取得了联系，当时运气成分很大。我认识一些当时参与决策的人，他们都不确定几周后自己的孩子是否还能活着。不过，我们最终挺了过来。基本上，我们一直很幸运，而且在这期间也采取了正确的措施，但好运不会永远相伴。生物袭击很可怕，炭疽病毒的传播并不容易，如何投放是个难题。那些少量信封里的炭疽病毒，足以杀死10 万人，但要将其扩散却很困难。多年来，武器的发展(如果这也能叫发展的话)十分惊人。",[19,79,80],{},"1960 年代末，我成立基金会时就说过，核威胁是头号问题，但我不知道如何通过资金投入来有效应对。我支持\"核威胁倡议\"组织。社会上的很多重大问题，都不是金钱能解决的，在家庭中可能也是如此。那些金钱无法解决的问题，才是真正的问题。而金钱能够解决的问题，美国总能找到办法解决。你提到的恐怖主义威胁，是最棘手的问题。世界上有人想对我们造成巨大伤害，我们比其他任何国家都更容易成为目标。他们中一些人掌握相关知识，只有少数人拥有材料，还有些人缺乏投放能力。",[19,82,83],{},"但朝鲜问题不容忽视，未来一年，朝鲜有可能发生一些状况，虽然我不知道这个概率是0.01%、0.03%还是0.005%，但确实存在这种可能性。还有其他各种潜在的威胁。几年前，如果有人说世界贸易中心会发生那样的事情，人们肯定觉得这是科幻小说。20 多个人用美工刀就能制造那样的灾难。这是全人类面临的问题，我们的任务就是尽一切可能降低这些威胁发生的概率。首要任务是阻止核武器的进一步扩散，比如印度和巴基斯坦都有核能力，多年来，两国积怨已久，还不时发生一些意外事件。",[19,85,86],{},"上周六，克林顿总统在我女儿家共进午餐，我们谈到了印度和巴基斯坦的问题。几年前，就在国情咨文演讲前夕，他曾致力于解决这个问题，但当时他也不确定是否会爆发冲突，后果实在太严重了。这是全人类面临的头号问题，我没有什么好的解决办法，但我认为，对美国总统来说，这是他的首要职责。无论需要在边境管控上采取什么措施，解决国内的核储备问题，还是与俄罗斯合作处理核材料，这都是你、你的孩子以及孙子们一生都要面对的问题。",[43,88,90],{"id":89},"提问过去几年在公司治理方面出台了大量监管措施您能谈谈对良好公司治理要点的看法吗","提问：过去几年，在公司治理方面出台了大量监管措施，您能谈谈对良好公司治理要点的看法吗？",[19,92,93,94,98],{},"巴菲特：嗯，我的观点可能有些不同。40 多年来，我在除伯克希尔公司外的19 家上市公司和企业董事会任职过，见证了许多董事会的运作。问题在于，",[95,96,97],"strong",{},"尽管董事会处于商业环境中，但在很大程度上，它们更像是社交组织","。就拿我1988 年加入可口可乐董事会来说，让董事会成员去质疑罗伯托·戈伊苏埃塔的薪酬，这是非常困难的。顺便说一句，作为董事会成员，我们甚至都不知道他的具体薪酬是多少。除非你是薪酬委员会成员，否则只能通过委托书来了解。他们从来没让我进入薪酬委员会，我加入过各种委员会，比如接待委员会、园艺委员会，甚至舞蹈委员会，但就是没进过薪酬委员会，我都不知道为什么！",[19,100,101],{},"**董事会在很大程度上是个社交组织。一般来说，除非有大股东对公司事务不满，否则真正能促使变革发生的，是董事会成员感到尴尬的时候。**因为董事会里都是些大人物，我把参加董事会会议形容为\"大象碰头\"。大家互相打量，心想\"我也得像大象一样有派头\"，这种感觉很让人安心。在董事会会议上，你不会想打嗝，同样，你也不会去质疑薪酬、收购等事宜，有些事情比打嗝更让人忌讳(这里就不细说了)。这就是社交场合的规矩，问题在于，如何打破这种局面呢？这并不容易，最难解决的是平庸的问题。",[19,103,104],{},"比如说，内布拉斯加队的教练Frank Solich，如果他的四分卫表现平庸，他就得想办法解决，否则明年可能就没法继续执教了。但对于财富500 强公司来说，如果CEO 表现平平，他可能是个好人，顾家，还是你的朋友，甚至是他选你进入董事会的，在这种情况下，你有什么动力去解雇他呢？这种事情很难发生，因为这似乎并没有太大影响。当然，薪酬委员会的情况更是荒谬，CEO 非常在意薪酬，而薪酬委员会的成员却觉得这无关紧要，我把这叫做\"玩钱游戏\"，因为这对他们来说确实没什么实际意义。",[19,106,107,108],{},"**坦率地说，这种竞争结构的不平等很难通过制定规则来解决。但我认为，理想的董事会成员应该具备商业头脑(我在年报中也讨论过这个问题)。很多董事会成员都很聪明，但对商业却一窍不通。**如果我在医院董事会任职，我对医院运营和医学一无所知。就算每次开会都有一群穿着白大褂的人，花一个小时用PPT 给我讲解，一两年后我还是不懂。他们想向我推销什么，我都会相信。如果我在加州理工学院，听他们讨论物理，也是同样的情况。这不是因为我不够聪明，连填字游戏都做不出来，而是因为我不了解这个领域。",[95,109,110],{},"美国很多公司的董事会里，有很多大名鼎鼎的人，但他们连经营一个柠檬水小摊都不会。这并不是他们的错，他们在自己擅长的领域做得很好。",[19,112,113],{},[95,114,115],{},"所以，董事会成员需要具备商业头脑(business savvy)，要有以股东利益为导向的意识(shareholder orientation)，这是很多董事所缺乏的。他们要有兴趣参与公司事务，是因为真正对公司业务感兴趣，而不是为了那点董事费。此外，还需要具备独立性(independence)，但法定定义的独立性对他们来说并不适用。",[19,117,118,119,122],{},"在伯克希尔，有很多人符合法定的独立性标准，但如果我们给他们高额报酬(实际上我们不会这么做，原因很明显，了解我的人应该都知道)，比如每年支付7.5 万美元，而他们的年收入是20 万美元，并且还希望再加入一个董事会，再赚7.5 万美元，那他们就不具备真正的独立性。",[95,120,121],{},"真正的独立性源于思想上的独立","，在伯克希尔，我们给董事的报酬基本可以忽略不计，也不购买董事和高级职员责任保险，他们也不会从中获得保险利益。在纽交所，我们几乎是唯一不买这种保险的公司。我们希望董事们自己投入大量资金购买公司股票，不是股票期权，也不是股票奖励，而是用自己的钱去购买，就像我和很多股东一样。我们希望他们对董事费不感兴趣，所以不支付高额报酬。我们希望他们为错误决策承担后果，如果选错了公司管理者，他们要和股东一样遭受损失，这样他们就会有危机感。我们有一些非常精通商业的董事，他们了解业务，每个人在公司股票上的投资至少有100 万美元，而每年只领取900 美元的董事费，这样他们的利益就与股东一致了。我可以找到10 个符合证券交易所独立性定义的人，他们都很有名望，但如果董事费对他们很重要，他们就不具备独立性，和伯克希尔拿薪水的员工没什么区别，只要董事费占他们收入的三分之一或四分之一，就谈不上独立。",[19,124,125],{},"这是个很难解决的问题。董事会实际上有两个职责：**一是选出合适的CEO，二是确保他\u002F她不会越权行事。如果能做好这两点，就足够了。**这就好比在棒球比赛中，你需要优秀的击球手，同时要确保他们不会利用职权占团队其他成员的便宜。选择合适的CEO 是个难题，如果你在董事会，现有CEO 表现尚可，但你知道还有更优秀的人选，该怎么办呢？",[19,127,128],{},"近年来，防止CEO 越权也很困难。坦率地说，人们想要评估公司情况，于是引入了顾问consultants，但这些顾问基本上是由管理层聘请的。即使不是，他们也会按照管理层的意愿行事，以便获得其他公司的推荐。这是一场一边倒、不公平的游戏。我知道伯克希尔是如何应对这个问题的，我们的方法异于传统。但我们还是得遵守规则，我必须确保我们在其他方面也符合要求。除了确保遵守法律，我不会太在意其他规定。但这不是我们选拔董事的方式。有趣的是，我在年报中提到需要增加一些董事，结果收到了大约30 个人的申请。我要求他们必须持有公司股票一段时间，这些人每个人都有几百万美元的资产，并且他们都愿意接受这份工作，对公司业务也很感兴趣。我们挑选了几位，可能还会再选一两个。",[19,130,131],{},"我认为一些公司正在取得进展。比如，通用电气的Jeff Immelt 在一定程度上引领了公司治理的变革，他致力于建立一套对通用电气股东最有利的治理体系，并且在这方面发挥了带头作用。他想做正确的事，而且还会在这个岗位上工作15-20 年，对我来说，他这样的人很有意思。你会发现，大多数首席执行官都知道这个\"游戏规则\"对他们有利，不会轻易放弃。",[19,133,134],{},"还有什么人是我忘了得罪的吗？",[43,136,138],{"id":137},"提问我对您对美国制造业的看法很感兴趣我知道您投资了蒙哥马利clayton-移动房屋公司以及shaw-工业集团据我所知这些公司大多没有像中国制造业那样广泛的业务规模我想知道在分析一家制造企业时您是否会把是否具备抗竞争风险能力作为一个绝对的考量标准呢","提问：我对您对美国制造业的看法很感兴趣。我知道您投资了蒙哥马利、Clayton 移动房屋公司以及Shaw 工业集团，据我所知，这些公司大多没有像中国制造业那样广泛的业务规模。我想知道，在分析一家制造企业时，您是否会把\"是否具备抗竞争风险能力\"作为一个绝对的考量标准呢？",[19,140,141],{},"巴菲特：伯克希尔最初是经营纺织业务，如果追溯其公司前身，能回到19 世纪。我是在1964 年进入公司，当时在New Bedford 我们有几千名员工，而在我进入之前，员工数量从12000 人锐减到了2000 人。这些员工都很不错，拿着低工资辛勤工作，但就收入而言，这份工作并不好。他们技术娴熟，大多是葡萄牙人。New Bedford 曾是个捕鲸小镇，那里的劳动力没有任何问题。但基本上，我们在纺织这个行业惨败。",[19,143,144],{},"从全球范围来看，在比较优势方面，其他地方的人愿意以更低的工资工作，对此我们毫无办法。当谈到对这些员工进行再培训时，他们大多已经55 岁了。一个繁荣的社会必须为这样的人提供保障。他们并非自身有什么过错，却在拖拉机出现时，就像马匹一样被时代淘汰，没有其他办法。55 岁或60 岁的他们，已经没有能力成为计算机专家。自由市场淘汰了他们。当然，自由市场在美国创造了很多价值，但我们也必须照顾好这些被市场淘汰的人。这种情况在纺织业发生过，现在仍在发生，它正在击垮伯灵顿工业Burlington industry、WestPoint 公司、Tultex 等企业，这些纺织公司一家接一家地破产，再也无法恢复元气。",[19,146,147],{},"我还涉足过制鞋业。美国人每年要买12 亿双鞋，简直就是Imelda Marcos 之国(菲律宾前第一夫人，以收藏大量鞋子闻名)，而我大概每10 年才买一双鞋。40 年前，除了高端鞋，几乎所有鞋子都是美国本土制造，比如马萨诸塞州的Rockford 就是重要产地。但现在，美国本土制造的鞋子可能不到4%。我们曾是美国最后一批本土制鞋商之一，在缅因州的Dexter 生产鞋子。几年前我收购了这家公司，它的鞋子款式很棒，各方面都不错，有优秀的劳动力，管理层关爱员工，员工也支持管理层，公司盈利状况良好，但最后还是亏损了。因为其他地方的人愿意以缅因州Dexter 工人十分之一的工资工作。如今，实际上美国已经没有本土制鞋业了。",[19,149,150],{},"正如Bill Child 所说，家具行业也面临同样的情况。我不知道20 年前Bill 从国外采购的比例是多少，但现在很多人都去中国采购家具了。以前人们会去北卡罗来纳州，从Drexel、Broyhill 等公司购买家具，现在我们直接去中国采购。我们规模够大，所以可以直接采购，不用通过中间商，采购后贴上自己的牌子，还要加价20%。家具行业，至少那些劳动密集型的部分正在离开美国，这完全不是工人的错，实际上是全球化采购的必然结果。",[19,152,153],{},"你提到了Shaw 工业集团，它是全球最大的地毯制造商，我们现在的销售额达到145 亿美元。劳动力成本只占地毯成本的15%，实际上，综合分析所有成本因素后，这类产业还是会流向其他地方。我们还拥有鲜果布衣公司Fruit of the Loom，其80%的生产业务已经转移到中美洲，一开始是墨西哥，现在则是危地马拉等地。",[19,155,156],{},"只要美国坚持自由贸易政策，那些劳动密集型产业必会衰败，这甚至包括软件行业，印度现在已经在这个行业占据了重要地位，微软的比尔·盖茨就与印度的合作越来越多。这对美国来说是个大问题，我不知道下一个受影响的会是哪个行业。从纺织业、鞋业到现在的家具业，涉及到数百万人，而且这些人很难找到合适的替代工作，他们不会一下子就进入各种好工作岗位。",[19,158,159],{},"美国有相当一部分人口没有生产力，这就使得有生产力的人们需要承担更多，给经济带来越来越大的压力。事实上，我们已经看到了这种情况。我在制鞋业和纺织业吃了不少苦头，也从中吸取了教训。有些时候，你无力抗争。当其他地方的劳动力成本只有这里的十分之一，甚至五分之一、四分之一时，你根本竞争不过。人们不会仅仅因为商品上写着\"美国制造\"就购买，他们会去沃尔玛购物。以我们的鲜果布衣内衣为例，先不说质量，如果价格最实惠，我们就能卖出去。但如果有人能以更低的价格，比如50 美分\u002F三件的价格出售类似产品，我们就有麻烦了。我们还算幸运，因为我们在国外有16000 名员工，在美国国内有4000 名员工。",[43,161,163],{"id":162},"提问我关注您很久了也研究过您的投资随着您涉足像利捷航空netjets-这样的业务以及最近投资中国和石油行业您的投资似乎发生了一些变化我想请您讲讲您一直不看好资本密集型行业也就是那些需要大量资本支出的行业但netjets-是如何运作的呢","提问：我关注您很久了，也研究过您的投资。随着您涉足像利捷航空NetJets 这样的业务，以及最近投资中国和石油行业，您的投资似乎发生了一些变化。我想请您讲讲，您一直不看好资本密集型行业，也就是那些需要大量资本支出的行业，但NetJets 是如何运作的呢？",[19,165,166,167,170],{},"巴菲特：嗯，我们在努力进入航空业务，这说起来有点意思。",[95,168,169],{},"飞机是非常昂贵的设备，航空业一直以来都是个巨大的资本陷阱","。回顾航空业的历史，快100 年了，但在运送乘客方面，这个行业几乎没赚过钱。想象一下，回到1903 年的Kitty Hawk，你突然看到未来飞机能搭载400 人，5 小时就能横跨美国，各种可能性都出现了，你可能会觉得这太不可思议了，人人都能靠这个发财。然而，尽管投入了大量资金，这个行业却一直在亏损。",[19,172,173],{},"如果当年在Kitty Hawk 有个资本家，他真该把那些飞机都打下来，我办公室里都该立个他的雕像，上面写着：就是这个人打下了Orville 的飞机，为我们省了一大笔钱。**航空业是个糟糕的行业，原因在于设备成本太高，运营成本也高，而且在很大程度上它属于大宗商品行业。**如果你经营XYZ 航空公司，早上翻开《今日美国》，发现竞争对手在打低价广告，你当天就得跟着降价。",[19,175,176,177,180],{},"但我们在西部卖喜诗糖果就不一样了，要是有人卖更便宜的糖果，我们可以直接告诉顾客便宜糖果吃了对身体不好。",[95,178,179],{},"如果你身处大宗商品行业，不仅需要大量资金投入，工会力量还很强大，那这个行业注定是个资本陷阱","。而NetJets 的情况是，客户购买飞机的部分所有权，相比购买整架飞机，他们能节省不少钱，而且买得越多，省得越多，大概就是这样。我在这里遇到过一些客户，他们对NetJets 非常满意，我的女儿就是用户，为了多一点NetJets 的服务，她可能连父母都能\"卖掉\"。一旦体验过NetJets 的服务，再回去坐商业航班，就像从热恋回到了牵手的阶段，完全不是人们想要的。",[19,182,183],{},"你还提到了中国石油，这是一家大型石油公司，属于资本密集型企业，我们只是持有它的股票，就像持有可口可乐的股票一样。没错，这是我们在中国持有的唯一一只股票。在中国，有很多大公司的股票可供投资，中国石油规模非常大，其石油产量几乎达到埃克森美孚的80%，这都是实打实的数据。但它也是资本密集型企业，与埃克森美孚、雪佛龙等公司相比，它的股价很低，也理应如此。在我们的年度股东大会后，有个记者问我，怎么能投资一家由一群共产主义者经营的公司的股票呢？我回答说，在见识过一些美国企业的管理之后，我反倒更倾向于投资中国石油。对我们来说，这只是一只股票而已。",[43,185,187],{"id":186},"提问我们都会变老在医疗经济方面应该由谁来管理或者说我们该如何应对呢","提问：我们都会变老，在医疗经济方面，应该由谁来管理，或者说我们该如何应对呢？",[19,189,190,191,194,195,198,199],{},"巴菲特：有本很不错的书，是Kaiser 凯撒医疗集团的负责人写的，我一时想不起书名了。这本书描述了我们已经面临和即将面临的问题。医疗支出占GDP 的比例已经达到13%或14%，而且还会继续上升，这是个惊人的比例，几乎是世界其他国家的两倍。",[95,192,193],{},"随着医学的发展，治疗费用越来越高，人们的寿命也越来越长，不管怎样，医疗资源必须进行分配(rationed)","。在医疗领域使用\"分配\"这个词很残酷，但这就是现实。多年来，这种情况一直在发生，在一些社会主义国家，可能通过排队时间来分配医疗资源；而在费用高昂的特殊治疗中，可能是通过金钱来分配。",[95,196,197],{},"但归根结底，人们对医疗的需求几乎是无限的","，而从成本和某些疾病的治疗费用来看，如果医疗支出占美国GDP 的20%，美国经济可能无法正常运转。显然，",[95,200,201],{},"大多数医疗服务的对象是不再具备生产力的老年人。",[19,203,204],{},"年轻人负担不起，老年人也负担不起。纽约市公立教育系统每个学生每年的教育成本是11000 美元，一个四子之家每年要承担44000 美元的教育费用。总得有人来支付这笔费用，这其实是对生产者的一种税收。多年来，我们有一种代际契约，年轻时你照顾我，中年时我努力工作，等我老了，你再来照顾我。社会承担起这样的责任，也应该承担起这样的责任。但随着年轻人和老年人数量的增加，这个等式变得越来越难平衡，因为21-65 岁的人需要承担起照顾所有人的重任，不仅要支撑制造业，还要为医疗等服务业提供支持。",[19,206,207],{},"我们现在又开始面临这个问题了。前些年，我们曾有过一段\"蜜月期\"，以前在产科病房，产妇生完孩子可能要住院好几天，但现在时间被缩短了。健康维护组织(HMO)出现后，通过谈判降低了医疗价格，这种情况持续了一段时间。但现在这段好日子已经过去，医疗费用开始以每年10%的速度增长。在GDP 每年增长3-4%的情况下，企业却要面临医疗费用每年10%的增长，这迟早会带来严重的问题。所以，我们将会看到一些提供更多福利的医疗体系出现，这是毫无疑问的。",[43,209,211],{"id":210},"提问当您收购一家公司时是像挑选商品一样的筛选过程还是类似投票选举的过程呢","提问：当您收购一家公司时，是像挑选商品一样的筛选过程，还是类似投票选举的过程呢？",[19,213,214,215,218,219,222],{},"巴菲特：这更像是一个筛选过程，并且会",[95,216,217],{},"考虑公司文化","，公司文化或多或少会有所演变，但筛选是第一步。在决定是否收购一家公司之前，",[95,220,221],{},"我首先会考虑的是：卖家是爱钱还是爱公司","？如果有人热爱绘画，即使卖画能赚很多钱，他们也会继续画画；如果有人热爱打高尔夫，就算能赚大钱，他们也会继续打球，就像最佳球手Jack Nicklaus 会一直活跃在常青巡回赛上。但如果有人只爱钱，他们拿到钱后，可能会承诺继续工作一段时间，但六个月后，他们自己或者配偶就会说：\"你为什么早上7 点就起床？你花了40 年建立这家公司，现在已经有花不完的钱，却还在做和以前一样的事，就为了把钱送到奥马哈？\"",[19,224,225,226,229,230,233],{},"我觉得这个问题至关重要。",[95,227,228],{},"我也会询问公司的经济特征和收购价格，但我在奥马哈没有管理团队可供派出","。我们在奥马哈只有16 个人，却管理着16.5 万名员工，根本没人能派出去管理所收购的公司，我们也没有所谓的\"救火队员\"。",[95,231,232],{},"所以，我只能依靠那些把公司卖给我的人","。比如NetJets 的Rich Santulli，他拿了数亿美元后，依然愿意早上5 点半就起床工作，在感恩节周末，大家都急需飞机的时候，去解决各种问题，比如东部的雷暴天气等。一天工作结束后，第二天他还愿意继续干。",[19,235,236],{},"坦率地说，找到这样的人并不容易。因为我们至少四分之三的经理都已经赚了足够多的钱，这些钱他们自己、孩子、孙子几辈子都花不完。他们把一辈子，甚至父母、祖父母积累的财富变现后，把公司交给了我们。现在他们有了选择，如果热爱这份事业，他们就停不下来。",[19,238,239,240],{},"我为什么工作？我太热爱我的工作了，如果可以，我愿意花很多钱来保住这份工作(当然不能让股东知道)。无论如何，我都想做这份工作。事实上，我可以做任何我想做的事，但我就是喜欢现在的工作。这与我能拿多少报酬无关，它只取决于两件事：",[95,241,242],{},"一是，我能按照自己的方式做喜欢的事，如果有人每天对我指手画脚，告诉我该做什么，我明天就会辞职。我有这么多钱，为什么还要听别人安排我该做什么、怎么做，甚至连头发向那边分、穿什么去办公室都要管？我肯定会直接走人。二是我喜欢得到认可。我很高兴我们的股东大多都很认可我，我有一群欣赏我的听众，这就是我在不需要钱的情况下还继续工作的原因。",[19,244,245,246],{},"对于我们收购的公司的管理者来说，如果他们一开始就热爱这份事业，这也可能是他们继续工作的动力。所以，我们给予他们极大的自主权，让他们自己经营自己的公司，并且毫不吝啬我们的赞扬。对他们来说，能得到我的赞扬，就相当于得到了专业人士的认可。",[95,247,248],{},"因为我懂商业，知道什么时候该赞扬，什么时候不该赞扬。而且，我会把赞扬的原因传达给股东，这样他们也能得到股东的认可。这就是让人们热爱工作的原因，他们必须热爱自己所做的事情，别无他法。如果不热爱，金钱也留不住他们。",[19,250,251,252,255],{},"自1965 年以来，我们收购了几十家公司，但从来没有一位CEO 主动离开我们去另谋高就。35 年来，除了今年有一家公司，创始人找来一位CEO 和她共同管理公司，但两人合作不太顺利，几个月后就结束了这种安排。不过他们对伯克希尔都很有感情，只是这种两人共同管理的模式不太适合那家公司。通常这种模式不太容易成功，但也有成功的案例。",[95,253,254],{},"这其中没有什么神奇的诀窍，但你必须确保他们一开始就热爱这份事业，并且让他们按照自己的方式经营公司","。这就好比我在画西斯廷教堂的壁画，我正画得投入，有人却对我说：\"你为什么不用红色多一点，而用蓝色呢？\"那我肯定不干，这是我的画，我才不管它能卖多少钱，这根本不在考虑之列。而且(伯克希尔这幅画)画画本身就是一件永远不会完成的事，这也是它的魅力所在。",[19,257,258],{},[95,259,260],{},"我喜欢听到别人说：\"哇，这幅画真好看。\"对我来说，这就是管理的意义。管理就是通过别人完成你想做的事，而实现这一目标的方法就是找到有才华的人，让他们以一种前所未有的热情投入工作。",[19,262,263],{},"我们在飞安国际(Flight Safety)就做到了这一点。Al Ueltschi 于1951 年用1 万美元创办了这家公司，他曾为传奇驾驶员Lindbergh 驾驶飞机，现在已经85 岁了。他建立了自己的事业，最后获得了价值10 亿美元的伯克希尔股票。他现在还每周工作7 天，多年前把公司卖给伯克希尔后，他反而解决了自己的一块心病。因为他花了一辈子心血建立的公司，他担心自己去世后公司会怎样。",[19,265,266],{},"我有个很简单的原则，我对他说：\"你现在可以把这幅'画'(公司)卖掉，我们会把它挂在伯克希尔的大都会艺术博物馆Metropolitan；或者你也可以卖给某个杠杆收购者，让它挂在某个董事会议室里拍卖。如果你希望自己一生的心血挂在董事会议室里，那也没问题，也许多赚点钱对你来说更重要。但我们会把它挂在大都会博物馆，还会以它的名字命名一个特别的展厅，而且你还可以继续创作。\" 这正是阿尔想要的。他把公司卖给我之后，生活变得更好了，因为他再也不用担心公司的未来。人们都会担心自己的孩子，他花了四五十年建立的公司对他来说太重要了。我当时对他说：\"别担心，如果你明天去世，很可能会有一个26 岁的家族信托经理把公司拍卖掉。\"这让他很抓狂，但人们确实会担心自己家人和公司的未来。",[19,268,269,272],{},[95,270,271],{},"这种考虑会帮我们筛选掉很多不合适的收购对象","。实际上，我们从来没有在拍卖会上收购过公司，以后也不会，我们对那种收购方式不感兴趣。拍卖会上的数据往往经过粉饰，还会有各种其他问题。但我们有自己的筛选标准，这样我不用看一千个项目才挑两个，大概看三个就能确定两个，因为在考虑之前，这些项目就已经经过筛选了。我们经常通过电话达成交易，比如从沃尔玛收购McLain 麦克莱恩公司，这家公司年销售额220 亿美元，从开始谈判到完成交易只用了29 天。沃尔玛的首席财务官来到奥马哈，我们谈了几个小时，就价格达成一致后握手成交。他问我需要做哪些尽职调查，我说：\"我已经做过尽职调查了，我已经问了你几个问题。\"29 天后，交易完成。在与沃尔玛的这笔交易之前，我们从来没有这么快完成过一笔交易。他们很满意，我们也很满意，现在有一位很棒的人在管理麦克莱恩公司。",[19,274,275],{},[95,276,277],{},"这就是我想做的事，我不想在拍卖会上收购企业，也不想到处去找那些刚毕业的MBA 来管理公司。我更愿意找到四百个热爱事业的\"耕耘者\"，让他们继续在自己的领域发光发热。",[43,279,281],{"id":280},"提问您投资过的最好的公司是哪家有没有您最喜欢的一笔交易","提问：您投资过的最好的公司是哪家？有没有您最喜欢的一笔交易？",[19,283,284,285,288,289,292],{},"巴菲特：",[95,286,287],{},"我最喜欢的交易永远是下一笔","。对我来说，明天早上的交易肯定比我工作以来的任何一天都更有趣。这就是我工作的常态。晚餐时我们还聊到过，",[95,290,291],{},"最好的生意模式是，成本一美分卖价一美元而且让人上瘾的商品","。虽然我们还没找到这样的生意，但我们经营的一些业务与之有点类似。",[19,294,295],{},"我们在美国西部售卖喜诗糖果，可惜盒装巧克力在美国并不畅销，人均年消费量大概只有1 磅。大家都喜欢吃巧克力，也乐意把它当作礼物，但却不会自己去店里买，这是个很有趣的现象。在场的各位，应该都希望在圣诞节、住院或者生日的时候收到一盒巧克力。但大家不会主动去店里购买，然而在世界其他地方，人们会这样做。所以，喜诗糖果虽是小生意，却也很重要，它是很棒的礼物，而且季节性很强。去年，我们靠它赚了5500 万美元，其中圣诞节前的三周就赚了5000 万美元。",[19,297,298,299,302],{},"我们公司见证了喜诗糖果的\"顿悟时刻\"。想象一下，情人节那天你回家，满心欢喜地拿出一盒巧克力，对爱人说\"亲爱的，情人节快乐\"，结果对方发现你买的是便宜货，这可不行。",[95,300,301],{},"价格并非购买决策的决定性因素","。当你售卖的巧克力每磅售价5 美元时，你不用担心有人以4.95 美元的价格抢走市场，很多其他商品则不是这样。",[19,304,305,308,309,312],{},[95,306,307],{},"重要的是消费者的心理认知","。如果你在初次约会时送了一盒喜诗巧克力给女孩，她还亲吻了你，那我们就知道这奏效了；要是她扇了你一巴掌，那我们就知道这巧克力没选对，以后你也不会再买我们的产品了。显然，巧克力必须得品质优良，",[95,310,311],{},"但更重要的是，每个加州人心中都对喜诗巧克力有着特殊的印记。就像全世界几乎每个人脑海里都有可口可乐的一席之地一样，它们在消费者脑海里占据着\"心智份额\"(share of mind)和\"市场份额\"(share of market)，在人们脑海里留下了印记","。",[19,314,315,316,319],{},"人们脑海里不会装下28 种类似的东西，就像可口可乐，我们希望它与快乐紧密相连。所以，我们希望在迪士尼乐园、迪士尼世界、棒球比赛现场等人们感到快乐的地方都能看到可口可乐。我们想要的就是这种关联，而且可口可乐喝起来也很棒。",[95,317,318],{},"正是人们脑海中对它的这种印记，让他们对产品感觉良好","。如果别人售卖的罐装饮料比可口可乐便宜一美分，消费者也不会轻易改变选择。要是提到RC 皇冠可乐，它已经存在75 年了，但在人们心中，它并没有什么特别的意义。",[19,321,322,325,326,329],{},[95,323,324],{},"如果你在销售消费品，你希望产品能在尽可能多的人心中留下印记，而且是积极的印记","。事实上，我可以给你10 亿美元，让你去加州尝试在盒装巧克力市场打败我们，你可能会想，我该怎么做呢？是降低价格，还是推出新的产品？但你根本无法取代我们，因为就算投入10 亿美元做广告，也无法改变人们心中既有的认知。你可以在中国建一家鞋厂，把我们挤出市场，",[95,327,328],{},"因为人们对鞋子的品牌在意程度没那么高","。还记得20 年前的Florhseim shoes 或Big Men shoes 吗？它们都消失了。人们不太在意具体是哪双鞋，只要外观好看、品牌知名就行，不会为了某个品牌多付钱，更不会去看鞋底是否写着\"美国制造\"。",[19,331,332,335],{},[95,333,334],{},"你真正应该涉足的，是那些成本不是决定因素的行业","。比如Hershey 好时巧克力棒，你走进一家药店说\"我想要一根好时巧克力棒\"，店员说\"我有一个自有品牌，和好时巧克力棒一样大，还便宜5 美分\"，你肯定会走到街对面，去别的地方买好时巧克力棒。当出现这种情况时，就说明你经营的是一门好生意，即便是价格稍低的竞品出现，人们也会坚持选择你的产品。",[19,337,338,339,342],{},"但如果你卖小麦，那就是另一回事了。我儿子经营农场亏损了，这是个艰难的行业。",[95,340,341],{},"我告诉他，如果有一天，有人走进一家店说\"请给我来一些XX 牌玉米\"，那你就知道这是门好生意；但如果他们只是说\"给我来点玉米\"，那就说明这是个糟糕的生意","。实际上，农业就是这样糟糕的行业。我读到过一个故事，内布拉斯加州有个农民中了2000 万美元的彩票，电视台的工作人员去采访他，问他\"你打算怎么花这2000 万美元？\"他回答说\"我想我会继续种地，直到把钱花光\"。这就是从事大宗商品生意的结果，你最好离它远点。",[43,344,346],{"id":345},"提问您如何看待当前的经济形势您认为应该如何调整经济政策","提问：您如何看待当前的经济形势？您认为应该如何调整经济政策？",[19,348,284,349,352],{},[95,350,351],{},"我从不关注经济预测","。抛开恐怖主义因素，从人均物质财富的角度来看，你们的孩子会比你们生活得更好，你们的孙辈也会比你们的孩子生活得更好。20 世纪美国人均实际GDP 增长了7 倍，想想看，这意味着人们可以选择减少工作时间，或者享受更多的产品，以及其他各种好处。美国经济非常出色，而且会越来越好。假设我还有20 年的时间，在这期间，经济可能会有几年表现不佳，几年表现一般，但大多数时候会表现良好，还会有几年非常出色，只是我不知道这些年份会如何排列。",[19,354,355,356],{},"这就好比我是一个优秀的高尔夫球手，来到一个从未打过的球场，我知道这里有5 杆洞和3 杆洞，平均来说，我在5 杆洞的击球数会比3 杆洞多。",[95,357,358],{},"但重要的是我要打好每一个洞，最终才能取得好成绩。在商业领域也是如此，我不能只挑选容易的事情做。我只关注如何投资那些优秀的企业，与优秀的人合作。",[19,360,361,362,365],{},"我做商业决策时，从来不会基于经济预测来决定是否扩张业务或做其他类似的决策，原因有两点：其一，经济预测不可靠；其二，它并不重要。",[95,363,364],{},"真正重要的是，未来5 年、10 年或20 年，我们国家会发展成什么样，以及我们是否会因此过得更好","。所以，我们没有专门的经济预测人员。我的合伙人查理和我从不谈论经济预测，我们只讨论如何把钱投资到那些我们愿意长期持有的企业，与值得信任的人合作。",[43,367,369],{"id":368},"提问您能谈谈对电信行业的投资以及mci-业务重组世通破产重组吗","提问：您能谈谈对电信行业的投资，以及MCI 业务重组(世通破产重组)吗？",[19,371,372,373,376],{},"巴菲特：其实我在电信行业并没有多少尝试。我对这个行业了解不多，也没什么深刻的见解。",[95,374,375],{},"在我看来，电信行业竞争激烈，属于大宗商品类型的行业，而且资本密集","。这不是我感兴趣的领域，我宁愿去卖糖果之类的产品，至少能清楚了解其竞争优势。我不喜欢变化太大的行业，比如Gillette 吉列公司，大约100 年前，它就开始生产普通刀片，如今它在全球刀片市场的占有率超过70%。每个人都知道如何制造刀片，不需要窃取技术，也不难进行销售。但吉列却能长期占据这么高的市场份额，这是一门非常出色的生意。10 年后、20 年后，它依然会占据主导地位。伯克利Berkley 肯定也会在未来10 年或20 年保持优势，可口可乐也一样。但在电信行业，谁也不知道未来会怎样。我甚至对电信行业过去的发展都不太了解，对于这个快速变化的行业，未来会发生什么，我更是毫无头绪。所以我认为，行业变化对社会有益，但对投资者来说可能非常不利。",[19,378,379],{},"**在投资领域，不变(Absence of change)才是致富之道。如果你买入的东西非常优质，而且不用担心它发生变化，某些行业就有这样的特质，而有些行业则不是。**任何涉及大量技术的行业，都可能在短时间内发生巨大变化。有人说在这些行业也能获得巨大成功，但我没有足够的能力去区分这其中的机会和风险。我也没遇到过几个真正能把握的人，偶尔有人自认为可以，但实际上很难预测。",[19,381,382,383,386],{},"看看电视行业，它改变了我们所有人的生活。如今，美国制造的电视机寥寥无几，市面上销售的2000 万台电视机，大多是在其他国家生产的。收音机也曾风靡一时，但没过多久，生产收音机的企业就赚不到钱了。",[95,384,385],{},"有很多对社会有益的行业都在不断变化","。以计算机行业为例，30 年前进入这个行业的人，如今大多处境不佳。虽然计算机行业对社会发展意义重大，但就像汽车行业一样，美国曾经成立过2000 家汽车公司，比如奥马哈汽车公司、内布拉斯加汽车公司，还有Maytag 美泰克家电公司、杜邦等企业也涉足汽车领域。但现在，只剩下两家公司(福特+通用)苦苦支撑，还有一家克莱斯勒卖给了德国人(戴姆勒集团)，基本上只是为了给退休员工发养老金而维持运营。这对美国来说，是个糟糕的商业模式，但却很有吸引力。",[19,388,389],{},"像WD-40(一种多功能润滑剂品牌)这样的小众企业，反而经营得很好。它只是一种有润滑等作用的小产品，汽车制造商生产数百万辆汽车，雇佣数十万人，却经营艰难。从这个角度看，资本主义在发展变化。你开一家成功的餐厅，第二天可能就有人模仿，还会想出新的菜品或增加停车位。**人们总是追逐成功的商业模式，这对消费者来说是好事，但对企业来说，竞争可能会非常残酷。**比如20 年前，麦当劳几乎称霸全球快餐市场，但现在情况不同了，Wendy 快餐发展得更好，Burger King 汉堡王则在苦苦挣扎，这太难了，我不喜欢这种艰难的行业。",[43,391,393],{"id":392},"提问能给我们讲讲您为什么会参与加州的事务吗","提问：能给我们讲讲您为什么会参与加州的事务吗？",[19,395,396],{},"巴菲特：关于加州：第一，除了内布拉斯加州，我在加州待的时间比其他任何州都长，我在那里有一套房子，已经住了30 年。更重要的原因是，加州规模太大，不容忽视。从GDP 来看，加州相当于法国的经济规模，它占美国经济的12%或13%左右，加州的发展对内布拉斯加州至关重要。如果加州经济一团糟，内布拉斯加州也很难发展得好。而现在，加州正面临财政困境。今年5 月，投资银行家找到我们，希望伯克希尔为加州提供帮助，因为该州需要出售110 亿美元债券的认购权证。这些认股权证原计划6 月发行，次年6 月到期，用于缓解财政赤字，但却卖不出去。加州要想卖掉这110 亿美元的认购权证，唯一的办法就是找像伯克希尔这样的公司提供担保，即在最坏的情况下，我们会以垃圾债券的价格购买这些债券。也就是说，如果在全球范围内找不到买家，我们会接手。我们提出了一个条件才愿意提供担保。",[19,398,399],{},"由美林证券和花旗银行牵头的七家银行组成的集团，收取了8400 万美元的费用。它们什么都没做，只是承诺如果到明年6 月加州还找不到买家，它们就会出手购买这110 亿美元的债券，这才帮助加州度过了6 月的危机。如果没有担保方，加州的\"债券信用\"就无法得到认可。现在，加州又面临30 亿美元的收入预期票据问题，为了获得信用证来支持这些票据，它们需要支付1%的费用，这些票据明年6 月到期。从现在到明年6 月，在金融市场上，仅仅为了获得有人会购买这些票据的担保，加州就需要支付100 个基点(1%)的费用，因为如果卖不出去，它们还会面临其他问题。",[19,401,402],{},"在我看来，加州到明年6 月这批债务到期时，还会面临更多的财政赤字。它必须在明年6 月之前，让全球金融市场相信它有能力解决自身的财政问题，因为金融市场没有义务购买加州的债券，没人能强迫它们这么做。不过，加州规模太大，不至于破产。虽然可能会出现现金短缺等严重问题，但总会有人出手相助。如果加州不能自行解决财政问题，最后出手的可能就是联邦政府。",[19,404,405,406,409],{},"问题总会得到解决，但我认为越早解决越好。",[95,407,408],{},"本杰明·富兰克林说过很多睿智的话，其中\"一盎司的预防胜过一磅的治疗\"，这不仅是伯克希尔遵循的原则，也应该是所有面临财政问题的人遵循的原则","。加州是个非常富裕的州，它不会\"沉入大海\"之类的，实际上它的经济实力很强，虽然存在财政问题，但这些问题都是可以解决的。但如果不尽快解决，就好比在午夜钟声敲响前的最后几分钟，问题只能由别人来解决，我认为这是个严重的错误。",[19,411,412],{},"加州需要有勇气提出必要的解决方案，并能够向加州民众和金融市场清晰传达这些方案的领导人。现在，在金融市场上，举证责任已经转移到加州这边，它必须证明自己的财政计划合理可行，明年不能再靠耍花招蒙混过关，因为市场会密切关注资金的来源和去向。加州有很多规定，这在税收和支出方面限制了政府的操作空间，相比其他很多州，它的灵活性更差。在一定程度上，选民制定的收入和支出规则束缚了政府的手脚，而制定这些规则的人，实际上并没有为解决实际问题负责，只是为了某些目的而推动这些规则的制定。这是个有趣的问题，但最终会得到解决。",[19,414,415],{},"好消息是，就像美国这个国家一样。**彼得·林奇说过，买股票就要买那种即使傻瓜来经营也能赚钱的公司，因为迟早会有傻瓜来经营它。**这句话很有道理。如果你投资的公司，哪怕你的傻侄子来经营都能成功，那你肯定能赚钱。你不会想要那种只有天才才能经营好的公司，那是世界上最糟糕的生意。事实上，美国足够强大，能够承受一定程度的管理不善。我们偶尔会检验这一点，但最终都能渡过难关。",[19,417,418],{},"怀着对美国这样乐观的态度，现在已经9 点了。谢谢大家。",[19,420,421],{},"Mike Leavitt 州长：谢谢你，沃伦。我觉得我们说什么都无法充分表达大家对你的感激之情。",[19,423,424],{},"还有两件事，一是宣传推广，二是拍照留念。如果你们今晚想和沃伦·巴菲特合影留念，他很乐意站过来和大家拍照。现在说说宣传推广：我希望大家了解我们奥奎尔研究所(Oquirrh Institute)正在做的事情。你们大多数人应该知道，奥奎尔研究所本质上是一群相信企业家精神，并运用企业家精神的原则来解决一些创新性公共政策问题的人组成的机构。今晚我们庆祝奥奎尔俱乐部(Oquirrh Club)的活动，这个俱乐部的成员每年聚会两次，就像我们今晚这样交流。我们会有独特的休闲时光，有学习新知识的机会，还能结识优秀的人，构建一个很棒的社交网络。今晚，你们中有些人是作为嘉宾受邀来了解奥奎尔俱乐部的。之后会有人联系你们，询问是否愿意加入，我们希望你们能加入。我们预计将成员数量增加到50 人，今年我们一直在发展会员，目前已经有34 人。达到50人后，我们就会停止招募。这是一个很棒的机构，我相信在未来几年，奥奎尔研究所会凭借独特的模式，成为美国最杰出的公共政策组织之一。非常感谢大家。",[19,426,427],{},"大家应该知道Dell Loy 非常慷慨，他捐赠了100 万美元，为奥奎尔研究所的创立和发展提供了动力。这是一幅名为《Early Light》的画。大多数人都知道\"Oquirrh\"在Goshute 印第安语中的意思是\"曙光\"。奥奎尔山脉在印第安人眼中，阳光照耀时的景色非常美丽。Dell Loy，这幅画无法完全表达我们的心意。你知道我和你的朋友们心里对你充满感激。非常感谢你。",[19,429,430],{},"Dell Loy Hansen：我可以代表自己以及我在这儿遇到的几乎所有人说，我们来到这里的原因很简单，答案只有一个，那就是Mike Leavitt。我们来到这里后，发现了很多有趣的事情，大家可以一起合作、共同进步。但我们都清楚，这个组织的发起者是Mike Leavitt，我对此深信不疑。所以，我们准备了一份礼物来表达对他的感激之情。但我们还有一件更重要的事可以为他做，那就是提醒自己，我们能给Mike Leavitt 最好的礼物，就是让奥奎尔研究所蓬勃发展，变得越来越好，这样等他再来的时候，就能看到一个规模更大、更出色的研究所，让他能继续引领研究所前行。现在，我要向大家展示这份礼物：送给奥奎尔研究所的创始人 Michael O. Leavit 州长，愿您如曙光般照亮公共政策之路。",[19,432,433],{},"Mike Leavitt 州长：非常感谢大家的友谊。就像沃伦今晚说的热爱自己的工作一样，我必须告诉大家，我也热爱我所做的事情。我会把这幅画挂在EPA 环保局，但又担心有人进来问这是不是二氧化碳排放图(此处为幽默调侃)，其实它只是一幅寓意美好的画。非常感谢大家的友谊，感谢大家为推动奥奎尔研究所发展所做的一切。",[19,435,436],{},"我相信，这个组织会为世界做出巨大的贡献。谢谢。",[438,439],"hr",{},{"title":441,"searchDepth":442,"depth":442,"links":443},"",2,[444],{"id":16,"depth":442,"text":17,"children":445},[446,448,449,450,451,452,453,454,455,456,457],{"id":45,"depth":447,"text":46},3,{"id":64,"depth":447,"text":65},{"id":89,"depth":447,"text":90},{"id":137,"depth":447,"text":138},{"id":162,"depth":447,"text":163},{"id":186,"depth":447,"text":187},{"id":210,"depth":447,"text":211},{"id":280,"depth":447,"text":281},{"id":345,"depth":447,"text":346},{"id":368,"depth":447,"text":369},{"id":392,"depth":447,"text":393},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特在内布拉斯加参加Oquirrh Institute活动，谈论足球、投资与人生，强调长期思考与耐心的重要性。","md",{},true,52,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":5,"description":460},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu","S3Fd1RNXwuDJYw8qSMWh9ZdOnE2ondJg7EisOrXQF1c","buffett",[473,478,481,485,488,491,494,497,500,503,507,510,513,517,520,523,527,530,533,537,540,543,547,550,553,557,560,563,567,570,573,577,580,583,587,590,593,597,600,603,607,610,613,617,620,623,627,630,633,637,640,643,647,650,653,657,660,663,667,670,673,677,680,683,687,690,693,697,700,703,707,710,713,717,720,723,727,730,733,737,740,743,747,750,753,757,760,763,767,770,773,777,780,783,787,790,793,797,800,803,807,810,814,817,821,824,828,831,835,838,842,845,849,852,856,859,863,866,870,873,877,880,884,887,891,894,898,901,905,908,912,915,919,922,926,929,932,933,937,940,944,947,951,954,958,961,965,968,972,975,979,982,986,989,993,996,1000,1003,1007,1010,1014,1017,1021,1024,1028,1031,1035,1038,1042,1045,1049,1052,1056,1059,1063,1066,1070,1073,1077,1080,1084,1087,1091,1094,1098,1101,1105,1108,1112,1115,1119,1122,1126,1129,1133,1136,1140,1143,1147,1150,1154,1157,1161,1164,1168,1171,1175,1178,1182,1185,1189,1192,1196,1199,1203,1206,1210,1213,1217,1220,1224,1227,1231,1234,1238,1241,1245,1248,1252,1255,1259,1262,1266,1269,1273,1277,1281,1285,1289,1293,1297,1301,1305,1309,1313,1317,1321,1325,1329,1333,1337,1341,1345,1349,1353,1357,1361,1365,1369,1373,1377,1381,1385,1389,1393,1397,1401,1405,1409,1413,1417,1421,1425,1429,1433,1437,1441,1445,1449,1453,1457,1461,1465,1469],{"title":474,"slug":475,"category":476,"order":477},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":479,"slug":480,"category":458,"order":477},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":482,"slug":483,"category":484,"order":477},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":486,"slug":487,"category":476,"order":442},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":489,"slug":490,"category":458,"order":442},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":492,"slug":493,"category":484,"order":442},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":495,"slug":496,"category":476,"order":447},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":498,"slug":499,"category":458,"order":447},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":501,"slug":502,"category":484,"order":447},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":504,"slug":505,"category":476,"order":506},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":508,"slug":509,"category":458,"order":506},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":511,"slug":512,"category":484,"order":506},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":514,"slug":515,"category":476,"order":516},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":518,"slug":519,"category":458,"order":516},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":521,"slug":522,"category":484,"order":516},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":524,"slug":525,"category":476,"order":526},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":528,"slug":529,"category":458,"order":526},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":531,"slug":532,"category":484,"order":526},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":534,"slug":535,"category":476,"order":536},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":538,"slug":539,"category":458,"order":536},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":541,"slug":542,"category":484,"order":536},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":544,"slug":545,"category":476,"order":546},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":548,"slug":549,"category":458,"order":546},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":551,"slug":552,"category":484,"order":546},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":554,"slug":555,"category":476,"order":556},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":558,"slug":559,"category":458,"order":556},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":561,"slug":562,"category":484,"order":556},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":564,"slug":565,"category":476,"order":566},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":568,"slug":569,"category":458,"order":566},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":571,"slug":572,"category":484,"order":566},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":574,"slug":575,"category":476,"order":576},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":578,"slug":579,"category":458,"order":576},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":581,"slug":582,"category":484,"order":576},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":584,"slug":585,"category":476,"order":586},"1963 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巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"slug":468,"category":458,"order":464},{"title":934,"slug":935,"category":476,"order":936},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":938,"slug":939,"category":458,"order":936},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":941,"slug":942,"category":476,"order":943},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":945,"slug":946,"category":458,"order":943},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":948,"slug":949,"category":476,"order":950},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":952,"slug":953,"category":458,"order":950},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":955,"slug":956,"category":476,"order":957},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":959,"slug":960,"category":458,"order":957},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":962,"slug":963,"category":476,"order":964},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":966,"slug":967,"category":458,"order":964},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":969,"slug":970,"category":476,"order":971},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":973,"slug":974,"category":458,"order":971},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":976,"slug":977,"category":476,"order":978},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":980,"slug":981,"category":458,"order":978},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":983,"slug":984,"category":476,"order":985},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":987,"slug":988,"category":458,"order":985},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":990,"slug":991,"category":476,"order":992},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":994,"slug":995,"category":458,"order":992},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":997,"slug":998,"category":476,"order":999},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1001,"slug":1002,"category":458,"order":999},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1004,"slug":1005,"category":476,"order":1006},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1008,"slug":1009,"category":458,"order":1006},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1011,"slug":1012,"category":476,"order":1013},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1015,"slug":1016,"category":458,"order":1013},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1018,"slug":1019,"category":476,"order":1020},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1022,"slug":1023,"category":458,"order":1020},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1025,"slug":1026,"category":476,"order":1027},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1029,"slug":1030,"category":458,"order":1027},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1032,"slug":1033,"category":476,"order":1034},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1036,"slug":1037,"category":458,"order":1034},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1039,"slug":1040,"category":476,"order":1041},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1043,"slug":1044,"category":458,"order":1041},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1046,"slug":1047,"category":476,"order":1048},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1050,"slug":1051,"category":458,"order":1048},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1053,"slug":1054,"category":476,"order":1055},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1057,"slug":1058,"category":458,"order":1055},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1060,"slug":1061,"category":476,"order":1062},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1064,"slug":1065,"category":458,"order":1062},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1067,"slug":1068,"category":476,"order":1069},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1071,"slug":1072,"category":458,"order":1069},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1074,"slug":1075,"category":476,"order":1076},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1078,"slug":1079,"category":458,"order":1076},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1081,"slug":1082,"category":476,"order":1083},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1085,"slug":1086,"category":458,"order":1083},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1088,"slug":1089,"category":476,"order":1090},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1092,"slug":1093,"category":458,"order":1090},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1095,"slug":1096,"category":476,"order":1097},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1099,"slug":1100,"category":458,"order":1097},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1102,"slug":1103,"category":476,"order":1104},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1106,"slug":1107,"category":458,"order":1104},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1109,"slug":1110,"category":476,"order":1111},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":458,"order":1111},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1116,"slug":1117,"category":476,"order":1118},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1120,"slug":1121,"category":458,"order":1118},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1123,"slug":1124,"category":476,"order":1125},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1127,"slug":1128,"category":458,"order":1125},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1130,"slug":1131,"category":476,"order":1132},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1134,"slug":1135,"category":458,"order":1132},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1137,"slug":1138,"category":476,"order":1139},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1141,"slug":1142,"category":458,"order":1139},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1144,"slug":1145,"category":476,"order":1146},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1148,"slug":1149,"category":458,"order":1146},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1151,"slug":1152,"category":476,"order":1153},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1155,"slug":1156,"category":458,"order":1153},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1158,"slug":1159,"category":476,"order":1160},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1162,"slug":1163,"category":458,"order":1160},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1165,"slug":1166,"category":476,"order":1167},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1169,"slug":1170,"category":458,"order":1167},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1172,"slug":1173,"category":476,"order":1174},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1176,"slug":1177,"category":458,"order":1174},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1179,"slug":1180,"category":476,"order":1181},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1183,"slug":1184,"category":458,"order":1181},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1186,"slug":1187,"category":476,"order":1188},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1190,"slug":1191,"category":458,"order":1188},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1193,"slug":1194,"category":476,"order":1195},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1197,"slug":1198,"category":458,"order":1195},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1200,"slug":1201,"category":476,"order":1202},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":458,"order":1202},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1207,"slug":1208,"category":476,"order":1209},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1211,"slug":1212,"category":458,"order":1209},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1214,"slug":1215,"category":476,"order":1216},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1218,"slug":1219,"category":458,"order":1216},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1221,"slug":1222,"category":476,"order":1223},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1225,"slug":1226,"category":458,"order":1223},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1228,"slug":1229,"category":476,"order":1230},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1232,"slug":1233,"category":458,"order":1230},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1235,"slug":1236,"category":476,"order":1237},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1239,"slug":1240,"category":458,"order":1237},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1242,"slug":1243,"category":476,"order":1244},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1246,"slug":1247,"category":458,"order":1244},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1249,"slug":1250,"category":476,"order":1251},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1253,"slug":1254,"category":458,"order":1251},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1256,"slug":1257,"category":476,"order":1258},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":1260,"slug":1261,"category":458,"order":1258},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1263,"slug":1264,"category":476,"order":1265},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":1267,"slug":1268,"category":458,"order":1265},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":1270,"slug":1271,"category":458,"order":1272},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":1274,"slug":1275,"category":458,"order":1276},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":1278,"slug":1279,"category":458,"order":1280},"巴菲特：2013年 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