[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1969},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":434,"library-sidebar-dao":1435,"library-sidebar-models":1737},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":420,"date":421,"description":422,"extension":423,"meta":424,"navigation":425,"order":426,"path":427,"seo":428,"seoDescription":422,"seoTitle":429,"slug":430,"stem":431,"__hash__":432,"_collection":433},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng.md","巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":398},"minimark",[9,13,18,22,27,30,33,41,44,54,59,64,69,73,76,82,87,92,95,98,102,105,108,114,117,121,124,127,130,133,139,145,149,152,155,159,162,165,169,172,178,184,188,191,194,197,202,206,209,214,217,220,223,228,231,236,241,247,250,254,257,260,263,268,275,280,284,287,290,293,297,300,303,306,309,314,318,321,327,330,337,341,347,350,354,357,363,368,378,381,384,395],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2004年对话沃顿商学院学生",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特对话沃顿商学院学生2004","巴菲特：对话沃顿商学院学生2004",[19,20,21],"p",{},"2004 年11 月12 日",[23,24,26],"h3",{"id":25},"_1关于投资的确定性","1，关于投资的确定性",[19,28,29],{},"听众：由于大多数行业的变化速度加快，如今是否比历史上更难找到可预测的企业？大多数行业的加速变",[19,31,32],{},"化，是否导致您重新评估您\"买入并持有\"的投资理念，特别是考虑到可口可乐和吉列等许多消费品牌已经无法实现增长？",[19,34,35,36,40],{},"巴菲特：看待变化基本上有两种方式。我们认为，变化是投资的大敌。如果不是这样，最富有的人就是图书管理员了。",[37,38,39],"strong",{},"有些业务变化发生的很快。我们正在寻找那些基本不发生变化的企业","。如果你能预测变化，那么你就能变得非常富有。航空业自小鹰号首航以来的，对股权投资者来说，净投资效益是一个巨大的负值。",[19,42,43],{},"我有一份2000 多家汽车制造公司的名单，现在剩下的最后两家，通用汽车和福特汽车，也都陷入了困境。数百家公司倒闭，许多人都不知道美泰克Maytag 和杜邦DuPont 也生产汽车。投资者的净投资效益并不多。",[19,45,46,49,50,53],{},[37,47,48],{},"我们寻找的是不会变化的确定性","。你提到了吉列。100 年过去了，吉列仍占据70%的市场份额，但其分销、产品和原材料却并不神秘。它在我们的资本主义体系中生存了下来，你知道它的产品会经常被使用。可口可乐的销量占全球碳酸饮料销量的50%：约13 亿份8 盎司饮料，高于去年和前年。我敢保证，可口可乐、箭牌和吉列将占据主导地位。",[37,51,52],{},"互联网不会改变人们喜欢什么品牌。我们在寻找那些没有发生变化的业务","。鲜果布衣和恒适(Hanes)合计占据了美国80%的男童内衣市场。我想我们会继续穿内衣。比尔盖茨欢迎没有变化的生意，只是在他的生意中没有这个特点。微软和eBay 拥有一些护城河。",[19,55,56],{},[37,57,58],{},"如果你能提前识别变化，那很棒，但风险要大得多，我们的战略失效的可能性也大得多。因此，我们要寻找那些没有变化的生意。我们不喜欢赔钱。",[19,60,61],{},[37,62,63],{},"资本主义是非常残酷的。我们寻找每个人都需要的普通产品。专利是确保需求的最糟糕方式。",[19,65,66],{},[37,67,68],{},"我们仍有很多机会找到可预测的需求。问题不在于缺乏机会，而在于价格。",[23,70,72],{"id":71},"_2关于今天的投资环境","2，关于今天的投资环境",[19,74,75],{},"听众：1969 年，您关闭了巴菲特合伙公司，部分原因在于，对那些强调定量因素的分析师来说，投资机会几乎消失殆尽。在你看来，今天的投资环境是否比1969 年更好？好在哪里？",[19,77,78,79],{},"巴菲特：1969 年投资太难做了，市场对投资者并不友好。我管理的规模也从10.5 万美元激增到了1 亿美元。我收到很多要接管合伙公司的提议。如果我有一个类似的合伙公司，在2000 年前后互联网泡沫最繁荣的时期，我会再次关闭它。2000 年3 月，纳斯达克创下历史新高，当时我们都在投资房地产投资信托基金。如果我有一个大的合伙公司，我会把它清算掉，但如果是小合伙公司就不会。",[37,80,81],{},"这既与我的感受有关，也与合伙人的感受有关。我觉得自己像个傻子，因为我无法跑赢市场，而那些真正的傻子却在哐哐赚钱。在我不理解市场发生了什么的时候，我就不会坚持去投资。拿着别人的钱去冒风险，比投资自己的钱更难。",[19,83,84],{},[37,85,86],{},"投资是世界上最棒的游戏。我曾经投资过百货公司，你必须与你的竞争对手进行残酷竞争，这是一个总是让你做出防御性决策的行业。我们想要一个无需防御性决策的生意。",[19,88,89],{},[37,90,91],{},"投资就是一个完美的例子。看着一个又一个的球飞过，你无需挥棒，你只需坐等最佳击球区的投球。当你为公众管理投资时，球迷们大喊\"挥棒呀傻子\"时，情况就更难了。",[19,93,94],{},"但我们仍然能找到投资机会。例如，我们在2002 年购买了80 亿美元的垃圾债券，如果我们有更多的购买时间的话，我们的投资额将达到220 亿美元。但我们已经尽力购买了。",[19,96,97],{},"但在你这个年纪，你可以拿着小钱到处寻找投资机会，我觉得有很多定量的投资机会可以做。",[23,99,101],{"id":100},"_3关于市场估值","3，关于市场估值",[19,103,104],{},"听众：您在财富杂志提到，未来十年的回报率约为7%。鉴于：1)企业利润率比历史平均水平高出30%，2)市值\u002FGDP 比值比历史平均水平高出至少25%，3)利率比历史平均水平低约25%。假设均值回归，难道我们不能得出结论：虽然在经济上的盈利增长加上股息可能达到7%，但我们正处于一个不可持续的估值高点吗？",[19,106,107],{},"巴菲特：我们已经接近估值区间的高点，但还没有真正达到极端。此前，过去我曾在访谈中，对市场发表过四五次评论(1969 年、1974 年、1977 年、2001 年)。你们中的大多数人都可以说，如果某个东西被高估或低估，你也能发现偶尔出现的极端情况。",[19,109,110,113],{},[37,111,112],{},"估值的区间很宽，我们的理念是确定那些极端值。当我考察一家企业时，我会寻找有激情的人。我能分辨出那些有98 分或只有6 分的人，而无法找出63 分的人。在生活和投资中，这条规则足够实用","。你提到了我2001年的文章，但回报率并没有超过7%，所以我想这个区间并不那么精确。",[19,115,116],{},"我怀疑现在的估值太高了。没有什么是便宜的，我现在也没有找到很多机会，但总有一天你会在桶里射鱼。重要的是，当时机到来，你要做好充分的准备，这意味着你不能跟众人站在一起。",[23,118,120],{"id":119},"_4关于低价买入的机会","4，关于低价买入的机会",[19,122,123],{},"听众：您过去曾说过，您宁愿以合理的价格购买一个优秀的企业，也不愿以便宜的价格购买一个普通的企业。如果价格对买卖双方都公平，而买方又没有实质性地改善企业，那么，如果价格已经反映了企业的质量，就很难看出买方如何从这种投资中获得超额回报。您显然在寻求超额回报，那么您能否解释一下，您是如何以一个既对卖方公平，又能为您留出非正常回报空间的价格进行购买的？",[19,125,126],{},"巴菲特：股票市场的定价会周期性的不理性。过去曾有一些伟大的企业以低得离谱的价格出售。与通过谈判出售企业不同，股市就像一场拍卖会，在股市上交易的股票并不被视为企业的所有权股份。",[19,128,129],{},"虽然内布拉斯加州的农田或公寓价格在平均水平附近不会有太大的变化，也几乎不会出现大的偏差，但股票价格的变化有时可能高达50-100%。因此，在股市中有机会以低价购买企业股票，我们真的试图以荒唐的价格购买优秀的企业。以华盛顿邮报公司为例，1973 年，整个公司的售价仅为8000 万美元(每股16 美元\u002F500 万股)。",[19,131,132],{},"这是一家拥有多家报纸、四家电视台和几家杂志如《新闻周刊》的企业。大多数分析师都认为，这些资产的内在价值约为4-5 亿美元。但你可以用低得多的价格买到业务的一小部分。",[134,135,136],"blockquote",{},[19,137,138],{},"(巴菲特抓住了这个机会，以1000 万美元的价格从机构投资者手中购买了约9%的股份，这些投资者认为股价会继续下跌，所以无法足够快的卖出。他们没有争辩说这家企业不值4 亿美元，只是说股价会继续下跌。随后，公司持续回购，伯克希尔的持股比例被动上升到为22%，如今该公司价值约100 亿美元。)",[19,140,141,142],{},"对于企业来说，通过谈判进行收购则是不同的。你可能会得到一个不错的结果。这些交易在一定程度上受到拍卖市场的影响。正如彼得林奇(PeterLynch)经常说的那样，",[37,143,144],{},"公司会拔掉花朵浇灌杂草。当一家公司陷入困境时，往往会出售皇冠上的宝石。",[23,146,148],{"id":147},"_5关于贴现率","5，关于贴现率",[19,150,151],{},"听众：在100%确定的情况下，您个人认为1 年后收到的1 美元的价值是多少？",[19,153,154],{},"巴菲特：这取决于1 美元在一年内的购买力有多大。您需要利用贴现率计算这1 美元的现值。这与分析公司的现金流非常相似。使用贴现率时，你需要估计有多少长期现金流？此外，您还需要了解中长期利率是否会发生很大的变化。例如，您对\"正常\"利率的预期，会影响您对一家日本公司在1990 年代中期的现金流所采用的贴现率。如果你认为利率会大幅上升，不想购买长期债券，那么你就需要考虑是否愿意购买该公司的长期现金流。如果你确实喜欢长期债券，那么资产剥离证券STRIPS 就是一项不错的投资。",[23,156,158],{"id":157},"_6关于收购ltcm-失败","6，关于收购LTCM 失败",[19,160,161],{},"听众：本周，Eric Rosenfeld(哈佛商学院的助理教授，1983 被梅里韦瑟招进所罗门，任债券交易部主管，后跟随梅里韦瑟加入LTCM 公司任COO)讲述了LTCM 最后的日子，以及您参与潜在救助LTCM 的情况。他认为，如果他们能让您回到阿拉斯加拿到手机，拯救行动就会完成：\"时至今日，我认为如果巴菲特在城里，救援就会成功。没有人愿意在没有咨询巴菲特的情况下投入40 亿美元\"。您能分享一下您对这个故事的看法吗？",[19,163,164],{},"巴菲特：Eric 星期天打电话给我，当时我正在打桥牌。从他的声音中，我可以听出有什么严重的事情正在发生。周一，我和比尔盖茨按计划一起去阿拉斯加度假，所以是用卫星电话联系，比尔就在一旁。当时，船长不停地把船靠近岸边，好让我们能看到灰熊什么的。盖茨觉得整个场面非常有趣。周二，我们去了黄石公园。我们是通过中间人高盛进行谈判的，最终在周三上午高盛提出了报价。我让高盛银行家Peter 代表我们出价。伯克希尔出价30 亿美元，AIG 出价7 亿美元，高盛出价3 亿美元。我让Peter 在那封著名的信上签上我的名字。Peter 问我是不是疯了，但我让他照办。于是，Peter 签上了我、高盛Jon Corzine 和AIG 的Maurice R. \"Hank\" Greenberg 的名字。我想，既然收购陷入困境，还不如让Hank Greenberg 加入。我不认为以前曾有人签过Hank 的名字。然后，我坐车穿过了黄石公园，此时卫星电话无法接通，按协议LTCM 将会先收到2.5 亿美元。但从周一到周三有很多事情要解决，但无法联系到我。如果我在纽约，我们就会促成收购LTCM 的交易。Eric 非常准确地再现了当时的情况。后来，纽约联储行长William McDonough 按他们该有的方式行事，14 家银行出资 36 亿美元联合拯救了LTCM 公司，我看到了老式的忠诚。我跟比尔盖茨说过很多次，所罗门曾让我们损失了很多钱。我知道他们在做什么，那笔投资都是我做的。我想如果成功收购LTCM 我们会赚几十亿美元。",[23,166,168],{"id":167},"_7关于坚持买入并持有好生意","7，关于坚持买入并持有好生意",[19,170,171],{},"听众：你和查理芒格都认为，世界上最容易欺骗的人就是你自己。你是否一直在自欺欺人地坚持某些\"买入并持有\"的信条，特别是考虑到这些好的投资很有吸引力，因为它们会为你工作，所以你可以减少工作。",[19,173,174,175],{},"巴菲特：",[37,176,177],{},"人们相信自己愿意相信的东西。每个人都会将自己的行为合理化。像查理这样的伙伴可以向我指出这一点。如果说我们有什么优势的话，那就是我们会把事情想得很透彻，而且我们拥有彼此的优势。我们不受其他人的影响。查理曾说，我们之所以成功，是因为我们是理性的，是在为自己工作。",[19,179,180,183],{},[37,181,182],{},"凯恩斯说：困难不在于接受新思想，而在于摆脱旧观念。所以，问题不在于坚持新观念，而在于摆脱旧观念。达尔文声称，他必须不断写下新的想法，因为他的大脑会争分夺秒地寻找新的想法。但如果他不在30 分钟内写下他的新想法，他的潜意识就会把新想法抹掉，重新回到旧观念中去","。",[23,185,187],{"id":186},"_8关于贸易赤字","8，关于贸易赤字",[19,189,190],{},"听众：您认为影响我国未来竞争力的首要因素是什么？",[19,192,193],{},"巴菲特：我国面临的最大问题之一就是大规模恐怖袭击问题。但对于这个问题，我们能做的并不多。",[19,195,196],{},"贸易赤字是美国面临的最大经济问题，其中经常项目赤字占90%。这个问题非常复杂，在两党辩论中没有充分阐述。社会保障和医疗保健是与贸易赤字问题相关联的两个问题。没有贸易赤字，就没有外国人对美国资产的净持有。目前，政府将美国产出的22%分配给社会保障和医疗保健。而这些问题是美国内部永恒的政治争吵，是生产者和非生产者之间的再分配问题。贸易赤字是所有权的转移或转换所有权的欠条，相对于18 亿美元流到外国。它不容易解决。如果贸易赤字在未来6-10 年内继续以目前的速度增长，那么外国人将长期获得美国3%的产出。我们负担得起吗？有可能。二战后马歇尔计划之后实施的对外援助是适当的。然而，这是一个累积的负担，需要由后代来支付，因为他们的\"父母\"不想为此买单。这可能是未来金融市场混乱的一个重要因素。\"当有人在剧院里舞台上开枪时\"，外国人持有大量资产，再加上同时发生的其他事情，贸易赤字可能成为下一次金融事件的头号问题。",[19,198,199],{},[37,200,201],{},"在医疗保健方面，当医疗保健成本越来越高时，你必须使医疗保健需求合理化。现行制度下的需求结构是不可持续的。我们需要重新规划人们的一些医疗期望，重新规划医疗保健服务的合理水平。举例来说：我们是否应该让每个人在最后的3-6 个月里都活着？人们是否应该得到最大限度的护理以保持健康？政府需要通过政策和人们的等待意愿来定量配给。",[23,203,205],{"id":204},"_9关于对管理层的影响","9，关于对管理层的影响",[19,207,208],{},"听众：您通过投资组合获得的价值是否有很大一部分来自于主动投资，比如影响管理决策？如果是这样的话，您如何看待，对管理决策影响甚微的投资经理(即被动投资者)的作用和长期成功的概率？由于你对美国一些大公司的管理层感到失望，被动投资对你是否失去了一些吸引力？如果是，这对美国有什么影响？",[19,210,211],{},[37,212,213],{},"巴菲特：简而言之，查理和我不会也不应该对我们公司的管理层产生重大影响。你会惊讶于我们对管理层的影响有多小。CEO 们都有不同的击球姿势，知道什么风格适合自己。我们没有必要告诉他们改变击球姿势，因为即使你的击球姿势与别人不同，你仍然可以成为一名优秀的击球手，我们雇用他们是因为他们是优秀的击球手。",[19,215,216],{},"就我们对上市公司CEO 的影响力而言，我们是\"无牙老虎\"。我们并不控制公司，如果我们的建议不被采纳，也从不威胁出售我们的股份，因此我们在很大程度上是\"无牙老虎\"。",[19,218,219],{},"我们是股票的长期持有者，因此不会从短期价格上涨中获利。此外，我们实际上更希望股价在短期内下跌，这样我们就可以购买更多股票，并增加我们在公司的股份。然而，信息披露规则使我们增持股份越来越难。例如，我们很少在英国投资，因为英国有3%持股的信息披露规定，所以我们无法在披露持仓前建立有意义的仓位。",[19,221,222],{},"因此，从历史上看，当披露要求不那么严格时，我们的表现要好得多，而且随着时间的推移，披露要求也在稳步提高。我们对中石油的投资就是另一个例子，披露规定让我们损失了数亿美元。我们必须在持仓达到1%时就公开我们的持仓，自此股价就一路飙升。",[19,224,225],{},[37,226,227],{},"股东应像所有者一样思考和行事。上市公司股东应关注的三件事是：你是否拥有合适的CEO？他是否会越权行事？他们是否过于专注收购或帝国建设，而不再考虑每股收益？机构投资者需要关注这三个方面。",[19,229,230],{},"**查理和我都认为，如果我们默默无闻，会赚更多的钱。**你会惊讶于我们对管理层的影响如此之小。管理层都是不同的个体，他们有自己的个性、有很多的钱、甚至有的有控制权。你会惊讶地发现，我们没有去指挥他们如何经营。我们的投资对他们几乎没有什么影响力。这并不重要，因为我们不会买也不会卖。我们不会从股价上涨中获得任何好处，来回买卖赚不到什么钱。",[19,232,233],{},[37,234,235],{},"在人们关注的公开市场投资，是一个巨大的减分项。我仍有99%的净资产在伯克希尔，但我个人账户会尝试匿名购买一些股票，这样做的效果更好。",[19,237,238],{},[37,239,240],{},"我们要求SEC 在伯克希尔某些投资方面进行保密处理，但SEC 并不经常允许我们这样做。",[19,242,243,244],{},"至于被动投资者，大机构股东应像所有者一样行事和表现。",[37,245,246],{},"最需要担心的是公司是否有合适的CEO？如果有，即使CEO 是个优秀的管理者，他是否会越权行事？唯一能阻止这种行为的是董事和所有者。只有所有者提出合理的要求，董事会才会阻止CEO。CEO 有时会为了满足原始冲动而做出一些不损害股东利益的事情。",[19,248,249],{},"我的直觉是，机构投资者的行为比10 年前要好。",[23,251,253],{"id":252},"_10关于财富","10，关于财富",[19,255,256],{},"听众：我也来自奥马哈。当我向学校里的人介绍您的节俭理财方式时，他们都惊呆了。您对财富的具体理念是什么？您认为这种纪律是如何帮助您成功经营伯克希尔的？",[19,258,259],{},"巴菲特：我很幸运出生在美国(中了卵巢彩票)。我的天赋在资本主义社会中非常有效：我天生就有资本配置的能力。是资本主义社会让我赚到了这些钱，因此这些钱最终应该回归社会。我赞成累进所得税制度。社会为我的财富做出了贡献，所以他们应该受益。",[19,261,262],{},"财富意味着我可以做任何想做的事。我可以奢侈地做出各种选择。但是，他并不想成为一名绿化工人，拥有一个20 英亩的庄园，需要花时间去整理和维护，花4 年时间建造房子也没有什么吸引力。我找不到比1958-59年就开始住的房子更开心的房子了。我对拥有一艘大游艇毫无兴趣，这更多的是一种麻烦。",[19,264,265],{},[37,266,267],{},"我更愿意用自己的财富去做自己想做的事，和自己喜欢的人一起共事。我喜欢自己现在的生活。我喜欢一起共事的人，15 年来没有人主动离开伯克希尔。我不会收购那些我不喜欢的人所拥有的企业。",[19,269,270,271,274],{},"如果有人问查理和我为什么会成功，我会回答说，这主要",[37,272,273],{},"归功于\"理性的决策\"，以及能够不依赖和专注于别人认为重要的事情","。能出生在美国这样的国家是非常幸运的。这就像中了1\u002F50 概率的彩票。这是因为，在一个需要资本配置技能并能得到高回报的大型经济体中，我天生就适合做这件事。比尔盖茨说，如果我早出生几千年，将会成为动物的午餐。",[134,276,277],{},[19,278,279],{},"至于财富的外衣，巴菲特认为自己已经过上了想要的生活。他告诫说，不要仅仅因为其他富人会这样做，就去支持他们的某些行为。例如，他不想拥有一艘大船，因为他根本无法从中获得足够的效用来证明拥有和维护一艘大船所带来的麻烦是值得的。目前的情况是，他确实从财富中受益，因为他拥有\"终极奢侈品\"，即每天做自己想做的事，而且他比大多数74 岁的老人玩得更开心。他不想盖更大的房子，而且他可以和自己喜欢的人一起工作。显然，他们也喜欢他，因为15 年来，与他一起在伯克希尔总部工作的18 个人没有一个离开过。他也不会仅仅为了钱而做交易，因为这就像一个已经非常富有的人为了钱而结婚一样反常。金钱最终赋予他的是选择的权力，因为奢侈的选择权力才是富有的真谛。他以54.95 美元观看的中量级拳击比赛PPV。他对这场比赛的花费没有多想。他谈到，在不久的过去，这场比赛仅限于麦迪逊广场花园的观众观看，而现在，由于整个社会的发展，那里的拳击手可以从数百万观众中获益。因此，他赞成累进税制，他认为拳击手也应如此。这就是说，他们之所以能够获得超常的收入，是社会的功劳，他们应该愿意为维护社会做出更大的贡献。",[23,281,283],{"id":282},"_11关于保险业务","11，关于保险业务",[19,285,286],{},"听众：很明显，你永远不会在伯克希尔采取平滑收益等措施。但你销售的保险产品确实帮助其他公司平滑了收益，或至少使他们的问题看起来不那么严重。这其中有矛盾吗？",[19,288,289],{},"巴菲特：保险的整个理念是，你每年支付一笔保费，为每20 年一次的灾难提供保障。产品的本质是平滑收益。您个人的汽车保险也是如此。你每年支付400 美元来保护自己，如果你打电话给Geico，则为350 美元！有时公司会错误地使用它，但这并不是保险产品所固有的。如果你达成了\"风险转移\"的再保险交易，你可能会被要求这么做。伯克希尔承保了两笔最大的追溯性保险交易。一次是白山保险公司(WhiteMountain)收购One Beacon，另一次是ACE 保险收购Cigna。每笔交易都支付了约15 亿美元，以减少过去的不良保单的赔付成本。伯克希尔在处理风险方面的能力远远强于ACE 保险或白山保险，这两家公司都在为过去保单支付索赔。我们所有的保单都是有赔付限额的。在美国也有一些风险转移的保单，但在过去五年中非常有限，因为审计师现在必须签字确认有足够的风险转移，而不仅仅是为了会计目的。",[19,291,292],{},"一般来说，主承保人与再承保人之间有一种默契和长期关系。如果再保险人亏损，主保险人就不能把业务转到其他地方。他们只是将这一经验纳入下一年的报价中。现在这种情况不那么普遍了，因为经纪人的引入，以客户为导向的情况少了，以交易为导向的情况多了。没有更多的客户关系开发，只有对最低价格的关注。",[23,294,296],{"id":295},"_12关于衍生品","12，关于衍生品",[19,298,299],{},"听众：在几周前举行的投资管理会议上，巴克莱全球投资公司(Barclays Global Investors)、道富银行(StateStreet)和先锋集团(Vanguard)的首席投资官CIO 参加了一个小组讨论，我们共同讨论了在现代投资组合管理中使用衍生品工具的问题。你们在过去的一次收购中处理了未知风险敞口(关闭通用再保险GenRe 的衍生品业务)，但不知道你们是否认为在这种环境下，某些有风险控制和纪律的机构，能够使用衍生工具有效降低风险。",[19,301,302],{},"巴菲特：伯克希尔也使用衍生品工具。衍生品本身并不邪恶。衍生品工具可以有效控制风险，但衍生品合同上的所有错误，都对交易商有利，而不是对我们有利。如今，普通的业务已经不赚钱了，利润空间被挤压得太厉害，所以就有人搞出了非常复杂的衍生品合同。",[19,304,305],{},"伯克希尔仍在解除许多衍生品头寸。通用再保险GenRe 三年前有2.3 万份合约，现在只剩下3000 份。衍生品的管理非常困难。在类似911 恐袭事件的情况下，由于损失规模未知，当你不知道衍生品背后是什么时，任何拥有大量股票和大量衍生品投资组合的公司都会陷入困境。随之而来的是公司评级的大幅下调，以及追加保证金等等麻烦。衍生产品的另一个问题是，撰写衍生品合约的人，其动机与公司不一致。例如，通用再保险收入最高的人之一就是撰写复杂衍生品合约的人，而这些合约不一定对公司有利。",[19,307,308],{},"最后，大型衍生品投资组合的问题在于，它们往往与公司的股票头寸直接相关。这种相互依赖性意味着，资产负债表上的数十亿美元取决于他人的业绩(其股票的价格)，而不是自己公司的业绩。",[19,310,311],{},[37,312,313],{},"衍生品就像艾滋病。不在于你和谁睡过，而在于他们和谁睡过。",[23,315,317],{"id":316},"_13关于管理层","13，关于管理层",[19,319,320],{},"听众：你经常谈到投资的最重要一点是，你只与你喜欢、信任和钦佩的人一起共事。然而，你却在刚了解一些公司没几天就收购了它们。投资前你如何评估公司所有者和管理者？",[19,322,323,324],{},"巴菲特：我实际上只通过简短的电话交谈就买下了一些公司，偶尔也会有失手，但比结婚的成功率要高。",[37,325,326],{},"投资的时间越长，你对人的判断就越准确。",[19,328,329],{},"**在评估潜在收购目标的管理层时，最关键问题是，他们是喜欢钱还是喜欢经营企业。最让人担心的是，所有者只是想把财富货币化，这可能会导致，如果他不是真心热爱经营企业，在卖给伯克希尔后就不会那么努力工作了。我会寻找那些真正热爱自己企业的企业主，我的平均打击率\"很高\"。对于这些企业主来说，他们的企业就是他们毕生的心血，这就像是一幅画，你花了毕生精力来画这幅画。你可以把它卖给我们，然后把它挂在博物馆的荣誉位置上。你也可以把它卖给杠杆收购者，然后把它挂在色情商店里。**我曾经通过电话购买了一家珠宝公司。我看得出，现任老板是那个'正确'的人。店主的曾祖父创办了这家公司，我看得出店主非常热爱这份事业。",[19,331,332,333,336],{},"我通常可以在不到一天的时间内衡量一个人。",[37,334,335],{},"在收购企业和考察管理层时，最重要的问题是：\"他们热爱这家企业吗？如果你一辈子都在画一幅画，你是愿意让这幅画在大都会艺术博物馆展出，还是愿意在出售这幅画时为了多赚5%，然后把它挂在色情商店里？","\"我在挑选公司和管理层方面的平均命中率很高。但我们不能对每个人都说三道四，并且偶尔我们也会犯错。",[23,338,340],{"id":339},"_14关于他对美元疲软的担忧","14，关于他对美元疲软的担忧",[19,342,343,344],{},"巴菲特：美元的购买力并没有被高估**。宏观经济并不是我们擅长的游戏，但如果一些经济事实向我们发出信号，我们就会抓住机会**。我们通常不买垃圾债券，但如果你仔细研究，总能发现一些投资机会。",[37,345,346],{},"我不喜欢用别人的钱和自己的钱去赌宏观走势。",[19,348,349],{},"我们与八种货币打交道。我对哪种货币对美元汇率的影响最大没有看法。我认为美元会走弱。各国都在支持本国的货币，日本希望压低本国货币，这使得美国货币相对升值。我不知道中国或香港是否会将其货币与美元脱钩。我喜欢用其他货币赚取收益，因为它们可以兑换成更多美元，不过我们的大部分现金都是美元。",[23,351,353],{"id":352},"_15关于概率思维","15，关于概率思维",[19,355,356],{},"听众：虽然我们都很想这样做，但如何区分真正的概率思维和由主观偏见引起的猜测？",[19,358,359,360,183],{},"巴菲特：当然**，我们尽量根据概率而不是猜测来做决定。这就是我喜欢保险行业和投资的原因。我们尝试仔细思考我们所面临的每一个决定。有些决定只是简单的概率问题**。我非常赞同罗伯特鲁宾(Robert Rubin)在《不确定的世界》(In An Uncertain World)一书中的观点。",[37,361,362],{},"商业都是概率问题",[19,364,365],{},[37,366,367],{},"人们自以为知道自己何时偏离了概率思维，但其实并不总能察觉。",[19,369,370,371,374,375],{},"我们也是人，概率思维并不总是可行的。",[37,372,373],{},"比如在与你爱的人打交道时，我们可能会偏离概率思维","。查理和我在这方面遇到的困难就是在解雇员工的时候。我们讨厌这样做，也尽量避免这样做。我们公司(WESCO)有一位经理患上了阿尔茨海默病。我们花了很长时间才发现，发现后又花了很长时间才采取行动。幸运的是，即使他得了阿尔茨海默病(Alzeimer)，公司的业绩依然很好，",[37,376,377],{},"因此我们在这里制定了一条新规则：只买那些好到有阿尔茨海默病的人都能管理的企业！",[19,379,380],{},"16，您在一两年前说过，美国企业利润占GDP 的比例达到6%，处于历史高位，而且很可能会下降。从那时起，该比率已经上升到接近8%。是发生了什么结构性变化，还是您确信该比率仍会回落？",[19,382,383],{},"巴菲特：我不认为8%的税率是可持续的，从长远来看，6%是一个更合理的数字。此外，很难将企业高利润率(即使是6%水平)与企业缴纳的相应联邦税率相协调，后者目前也处于非常高的水平(占GDP1.5%)。",[19,385,386,387,390,391,394],{},"在某种程度上，",[37,388,389],{},"联邦政府在每家公司都拥有一类特殊的股票","，我们称之为AA 类股票。例如，去年伯克希尔向联邦政府支付了约34 亿美元的\"股票\"税。公司对其业务的再投资越多，下一年的收益和纳税额就越高，即股息和 AA 类股票的价值就越高)。此外，",[37,392,393],{},"联邦政府可以随时改变分配给它的收益百分比(即改变税率)","。如果政府决定将伯克希尔未来税款作为股票上市，该股票将非常有吸引力。华尔街一定会喜欢的。事实上，按照35%的税率计算，该股票的价值可能与整个伯克希尔的价值相当。",[396,397],"hr",{},{"title":399,"searchDepth":400,"depth":400,"links":401},"",2,[402],{"id":16,"depth":400,"text":17,"children":403},[404,406,407,408,409,410,411,412,413,414,415,416,417,418,419],{"id":25,"depth":405,"text":26},3,{"id":71,"depth":405,"text":72},{"id":100,"depth":405,"text":101},{"id":119,"depth":405,"text":120},{"id":147,"depth":405,"text":148},{"id":157,"depth":405,"text":158},{"id":167,"depth":405,"text":168},{"id":186,"depth":405,"text":187},{"id":204,"depth":405,"text":205},{"id":252,"depth":405,"text":253},{"id":282,"depth":405,"text":283},{"id":295,"depth":405,"text":296},{"id":316,"depth":405,"text":317},{"id":339,"depth":405,"text":340},{"id":352,"depth":405,"text":353},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特与沃顿商学院学生对话，回答关于可预测企业、买入持有理念与消费品牌增长挑战的问题。","md",{},true,53,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":5,"description":422},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng","3QPHP0DQbpS5Fyjfo-tGIasHnG2aMLvP3VrXEQUaqXg","buffett",[435,440,443,447,450,453,456,459,462,465,469,472,475,479,482,485,489,492,495,499,502,505,509,512,515,519,522,525,529,532,535,539,542,545,549,552,555,559,562,565,569,572,575,579,582,585,589,592,595,599,602,605,609,612,615,619,622,625,629,632,635,639,642,645,649,652,655,659,662,665,669,672,675,679,682,685,689,692,695,699,702,705,709,712,715,719,722,725,729,732,735,739,742,745,749,752,755,759,762,765,769,772,776,779,783,786,790,793,797,800,804,807,811,814,818,821,825,828,832,835,839,842,846,849,853,856,860,863,867,870,874,877,881,884,888,891,895,898,901,902,906,909,913,916,920,923,927,930,934,937,941,944,948,951,955,958,962,965,969,972,976,979,983,986,990,993,997,1000,1004,1007,1011,1014,1018,1021,1025,1028,1032,1035,1039,1042,1046,1049,1053,1056,1060,1063,1067,1070,1074,1077,1081,1084,1088,1091,1095,1098,1102,1105,1109,1112,1116,1119,1123,1126,1130,1133,1137,1140,1144,1147,1151,1154,1158,1161,1165,1168,1172,1175,1179,1182,1186,1189,1193,1196,1200,1203,1207,1210,1214,1217,1221,1224,1228,1231,1235,1239,1243,1247,1251,1255,1259,1263,1267,1271,1275,1279,1283,1287,1291,1295,1299,1303,1307,1311,1315,1319,1323,1327,1331,1335,1339,1343,1347,1351,1355,1359,1363,1367,1371,1375,1379,1383,1387,1391,1395,1399,1403,1407,1411,1415,1419,1423,1427,1431],{"title":436,"slug":437,"category":438,"order":439},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":441,"slug":442,"category":420,"order":439},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":444,"slug":445,"category":446,"order":439},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":448,"slug":449,"category":438,"order":400},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":451,"slug":452,"category":420,"order":400},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":454,"slug":455,"category":446,"order":400},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":457,"slug":458,"category":438,"order":405},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":460,"slug":461,"category":420,"order":405},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":463,"slug":464,"category":446,"order":405},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":466,"slug":467,"category":438,"order":468},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":470,"slug":471,"category":420,"order":468},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":473,"slug":474,"category":446,"order":468},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":476,"slug":477,"category":438,"order":478},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":480,"slug":481,"category":420,"order":478},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":483,"slug":484,"category":446,"order":478},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":486,"slug":487,"category":438,"order":488},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":490,"slug":491,"category":420,"order":488},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":493,"slug":494,"category":446,"order":488},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":496,"slug":497,"category":438,"order":498},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":500,"slug":501,"category":420,"order":498},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":503,"slug":504,"category":446,"order":498},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":506,"slug":507,"category":438,"order":508},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":510,"slug":511,"category":420,"order":508},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":513,"slug":514,"category":446,"order":508},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":516,"slug":517,"category":438,"order":518},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":520,"slug":521,"category":420,"order":518},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":523,"slug":524,"category":446,"order":518},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":526,"slug":527,"category":438,"order":528},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":530,"slug":531,"category":420,"order":528},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":533,"slug":534,"category":446,"order":528},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":536,"slug":537,"category":438,"order":538},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":540,"slug":541,"category":420,"order":538},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":543,"slug":544,"category":446,"order":538},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":546,"slug":547,"category":438,"order":548},"1963 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巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":896,"slug":897,"category":420,"order":894},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":899,"slug":900,"category":438,"order":426},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"slug":430,"category":420,"order":426},{"title":903,"slug":904,"category":438,"order":905},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":907,"slug":908,"category":420,"order":905},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":910,"slug":911,"category":438,"order":912},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":914,"slug":915,"category":420,"order":912},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":917,"slug":918,"category":438,"order":919},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":921,"slug":922,"category":420,"order":919},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":924,"slug":925,"category":438,"order":926},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":928,"slug":929,"category":420,"order":926},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":931,"slug":932,"category":438,"order":933},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":935,"slug":936,"category":420,"order":933},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":938,"slug":939,"category":438,"order":940},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":942,"slug":943,"category":420,"order":940},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":945,"slug":946,"category":438,"order":947},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":949,"slug":950,"category":420,"order":947},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":952,"slug":953,"category":438,"order":954},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":956,"slug":957,"category":420,"order":954},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":959,"slug":960,"category":438,"order":961},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":963,"slug":964,"category":420,"order":961},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":966,"slug":967,"category":438,"order":968},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":970,"slug":971,"category":420,"order":968},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":973,"slug":974,"category":438,"order":975},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":977,"slug":978,"category":420,"order":975},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":980,"slug":981,"category":438,"order":982},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":984,"slug":985,"category":420,"order":982},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":987,"slug":988,"category":438,"order":989},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":991,"slug":992,"category":420,"order":989},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":994,"slug":995,"category":438,"order":996},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":998,"slug":999,"category":420,"order":996},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1001,"slug":1002,"category":438,"order":1003},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1005,"slug":1006,"category":420,"order":1003},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1008,"slug":1009,"category":438,"order":1010},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1012,"slug":1013,"category":420,"order":1010},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1015,"slug":1016,"category":438,"order":1017},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1019,"slug":1020,"category":420,"order":1017},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1022,"slug":1023,"category":438,"order":1024},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1026,"slug":1027,"category":420,"order":1024},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1029,"slug":1030,"category":438,"order":1031},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1033,"slug":1034,"category":420,"order":1031},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1036,"slug":1037,"category":438,"order":1038},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1040,"slug":1041,"category":420,"order":1038},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1043,"slug":1044,"category":438,"order":1045},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1047,"slug":1048,"category":420,"order":1045},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1050,"slug":1051,"category":438,"order":1052},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1054,"slug":1055,"category":420,"order":1052},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1057,"slug":1058,"category":438,"order":1059},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1061,"slug":1062,"category":420,"order":1059},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1064,"slug":1065,"category":438,"order":1066},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1068,"slug":1069,"category":420,"order":1066},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1071,"slug":1072,"category":438,"order":1073},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1075,"slug":1076,"category":420,"order":1073},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1078,"slug":1079,"category":438,"order":1080},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1082,"slug":1083,"category":420,"order":1080},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1085,"slug":1086,"category":438,"order":1087},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1089,"slug":1090,"category":420,"order":1087},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1092,"slug":1093,"category":438,"order":1094},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1096,"slug":1097,"category":420,"order":1094},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1099,"slug":1100,"category":438,"order":1101},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1103,"slug":1104,"category":420,"order":1101},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1106,"slug":1107,"category":438,"order":1108},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1110,"slug":1111,"category":420,"order":1108},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":438,"order":1115},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1117,"slug":1118,"category":420,"order":1115},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1120,"slug":1121,"category":438,"order":1122},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1124,"slug":1125,"category":420,"order":1122},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1127,"slug":1128,"category":438,"order":1129},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1131,"slug":1132,"category":420,"order":1129},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1134,"slug":1135,"category":438,"order":1136},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1138,"slug":1139,"category":420,"order":1136},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1141,"slug":1142,"category":438,"order":1143},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1145,"slug":1146,"category":420,"order":1143},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1148,"slug":1149,"category":438,"order":1150},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1152,"slug":1153,"category":420,"order":1150},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1155,"slug":1156,"category":438,"order":1157},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1159,"slug":1160,"category":420,"order":1157},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1162,"slug":1163,"category":438,"order":1164},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1166,"slug":1167,"category":420,"order":1164},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1169,"slug":1170,"category":438,"order":1171},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1173,"slug":1174,"category":420,"order":1171},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1176,"slug":1177,"category":438,"order":1178},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1180,"slug":1181,"category":420,"order":1178},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1183,"slug":1184,"category":438,"order":1185},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1187,"slug":1188,"category":420,"order":1185},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1190,"slug":1191,"category":438,"order":1192},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1194,"slug":1195,"category":420,"order":1192},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1197,"slug":1198,"category":438,"order":1199},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1201,"slug":1202,"category":420,"order":1199},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":438,"order":1206},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1208,"slug":1209,"category":420,"order":1206},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1211,"slug":1212,"category":438,"order":1213},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1215,"slug":1216,"category":420,"order":1213},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1218,"slug":1219,"category":438,"order":1220},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":1222,"slug":1223,"category":420,"order":1220},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1225,"slug":1226,"category":438,"order":1227},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":1229,"slug":1230,"category":420,"order":1227},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":1232,"slug":1233,"category":420,"order":1234},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":1236,"slug":1237,"category":420,"order":1238},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":1240,"slug":1241,"category":420,"order":1242},"巴菲特：2013年 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