[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1990},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":455,"library-sidebar-dao":1456,"library-sidebar-models":1758},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":441,"date":442,"description":443,"extension":444,"meta":445,"navigation":446,"order":447,"path":448,"seo":449,"seoDescription":443,"seoTitle":450,"slug":451,"stem":452,"__hash__":453,"_collection":454},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng.md","巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":428},"minimark",[9,13,18,22,28,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,73,79,84,89,94,98,101,104,108,111,114,117,123,128,131,134,138,143,148,153,156,161,166,171,176,181,186,190,193,196,199,203,206,209,212,216,219,226,229,233,236,239,242,245,248,252,255,258,261,264,267,271,276,279,283,286,289,292,296,299,303,313,316,319,323,326,329,333,336,346,350,353,356,360,363,366,369,372,376,379,382,385,388,392,395,398,401,404,408,411,415,418,422,425],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特对话范德比尔特大学学生2005","巴菲特：对话范德比尔特大学学生2005",[19,20,21],"p",{},"2005 年1 月25 日",[23,24,25],"blockquote",{},[19,26,27],{},"上周，我在奥马哈与沃伦巴菲特共度了6 个小时。当我走进会议室时，我惊喜地发现巴菲特穿得更像一个吝啬的大二化学学生，而不是有史以来最伟大的投资者。在大约3 个小时的时间里，巴菲特与我和一些同事进行了开放式问答。参加会议之前，我以为自己会得到很多关于投资和如何计算内在价值的建议。我想他会告诉我们关于\"市场先生\"的一切，以及他最喜欢的持有期是多长时间。然后，我想我们会聊到他对欧元的押注，或者他认为市场是非理性和低效的。或者，世界第二富豪也行会谈谈金钱？但谈论上述任何内容的谈论时间都是零。让我们来看看他都谈了些什么。作为顶级富豪榜的忠实粉丝，我整理了当天我从巴菲特身上学到的\"五大\"内容：",[29,30,31],"h3",{"id":31},"心怀感恩",[19,33,34],{},"世界上大约有60 亿人。想象一下世界上最大的彩票，这60 亿人中的每个人都要抽一张彩票。每张彩票上都印有他们余生必须生活的环境。每张彩票上都印有以下项目：性别，竞赛，出生地，政府类型，父母姓名、收入水平和职业，智商(正态分布，智商为100 的概率为66%，标准差为20)，身体特征：体重、身高、眼睛颜色、头发颜色等，个性特征：气质、机智、幽默感等，健康风险。",[19,36,37],{},"如果你现在正在阅读这篇博客，我猜你出生时抽到的彩票应该不会太差。你抽到一张拥有你现在所处的有利环境的彩票的概率小得令人难以置信(比如说，60 亿分之一)。在美国，你以自己喜欢的性别出生，智商一般，身体健康，父母支持你的概率微乎其微。沃伦用了大约一个小时的时间讲述了我们应该如何感激自己的出生环境，以及生活中为我们提供的优厚门票。他说，我们不应该认为这是理所当然的，也不应该认为这是我们所做的事情的产物，我们只是抽到了一张幸运的彩票。他还指出，如果他出生在孟加拉国的贫困家庭，那么他的\"资本配置\"技能将毫无用处。",[29,39,40],{"id":40},"道德与公平",[19,42,43],{},"继续上面的类比，考虑以下场景：想象一下，你从60 亿人中脱颖而出，成为创建世界体系的唯一人选。这包括政府类型、社会计划、税收制度、军事系统、就业市场、法律法规等。唯一的问题是在你被允许看你的彩票之前，你必须想出一个你认为公平，并且你愿意去生活的系统。沃伦谈到这一点时，让我重新考虑了道德行为的定义，如果你不知道自己抽到的是什么彩票，你会创建什么样的系统？如果你所处的环境不同，你会对你支持或反对的某些项目，采取不同的立场吗？",[29,45,46],{"id":46},"值得信赖",[19,48,49],{},"这也许是巴菲特想表达的一个次要观点，但他讲的一个简单故事对我影响很大。他讲述了内布拉斯加家具商场创始人的故事，她来自俄国一个贫穷的犹太家庭，不会读写或说英语。她在大屠杀中幸存下来，花了16 年的时间把家人带到美国(每人50 美元)，并把家具商场从最初的500 美元投资发展到，在奥马哈一个地区每年赚取3.5亿美元。有一次，她告诉沃伦，她评价人的方法很简单：她只问自己：他们会把我藏起来吗？这真是一个判断自己是否信任别人的直觉的好方法。",[29,51,52],{"id":52},"在能力圈内投资",[19,54,55],{},"沃伦详细谈到了要在自己的能力圈内进行投资。这既适用于创业，也适用于投资公开的证券。有一件事一直让我感到惊讶，那就是沃伦是多么自律，他从不让自己对一笔他不理解的交易感到兴奋。他了解自己的弱点、局限性以及他所接触的企业类型。他说，至关重要的是，人们要清楚地认识到自己不了解什么，并把努力和精力都放在商业和职业道路上，以便让他们能在自己所了解的事情上下大的赌注。他说，\"能力圈有多大并不重要，重要的是你要知道能力圈的边界在哪里，以及什么时候你处在能力圈外\"。",[29,57,58],{"id":58},"做自己喜欢的事",[19,60,61],{},"也许我们已经听过无数次这句话，原因是它是对的。沃伦详细讲述了他每天早上醒来能做自己喜欢的事情是多么兴奋。他谈到，在生活中拥有选择的自由，并以自己喜欢的方式涂画自己的画布是多么重要。他说，很多人都在谈论自己，将如何\"暂时\"从事一份高薪工作，然后再去做自己喜欢的事情。他把这等同于\"为老年储蓄性生活\"。他说，\"永远不要做那些让你感到不兴奋或不喜欢的事情\"。",[19,63,64],{},"这些难道不是你期望身价超过400 亿美元的人给出的建议吗？我只希望，当我在职业生涯中获得成功时，我能像巴菲特那样谦逊、慈善、智慧、乐观和正义。",[29,66,67],{"id":67},"会议纪要",[69,70,72],"h4",{"id":71},"_1沃伦是如何度过一天的","1，沃伦是如何度过一天的",[19,74,75],{},[76,77,78],"strong",{},"6:45 起床，在家看报纸，经常在开市后才到办公室。总是把读物带回家。",[19,80,81],{},[76,82,83],{},"没有固定的时间表，他不喜欢排满日程表。",[19,85,86],{},[76,87,88],{},"每天80%的时间用来阅读，20%的时间用来打电话(他后来说可能是90\u002F10)，电话交谈通常很短。",[19,90,91],{},[76,92,93],{},"每周花1-2 小时打桥牌4-5 次。",[69,95,97],{"id":96},"_2沃伦读了些什么","2，沃伦读了些什么？",[19,99,100],{},"大部分阅读内容包括10-K、10-Q，每日5 份报纸。",[19,102,103],{},"格雷厄姆与菲利普费雪的书就够了。",[69,105,107],{"id":106},"_3投资过程","3，投资过程",[19,109,110],{},"曾经有些东西便宜到他可以在一天内做出投资决定(在某种程度上与公司以2-3 倍市盈率出售的时期有关)。",[19,112,113],{},"对于旁观者来说，投资决定应该是显而易见的。您应该能够用一句话解释清楚为什么要买某个东西。",[19,115,116],{},"我不做DCF 计算，他说他在脑海中做了一个粗略的近似估计。",[19,118,119,122],{},[76,120,121],{},"寻找好点子是知识日积月累的结果。有些东西就这样自然而然地出现了","。他在这里似乎暗示，他的阅读并不是专门为了寻找好点子，而是在大量阅读后，好点子自然而然地跳了出来。",[19,124,125],{},[76,126,127],{},"通常是特殊事件投资，比如一个优秀的管理团队搞砸了，这就创造了投资机会。",[19,129,130],{},"你必须有耐心。好点子往往集中在一起出现，而且可能很长时间没有出现。当你一段时间找不到任何东西时，可能会很恼火。",[19,132,133],{},"他不会因为错过自己能力圈范围之外的东西而烦恼。但错过能力圈内的东西会让人精神痛苦，比如沃尔玛、房利美。",[69,135,137],{"id":136},"_4给新投资者的建议","4，给新投资者的建议",[19,139,140],{},[76,141,142],{},"不要过于担心自己犯错，不要成为马克吐温笔下被烫后再也不敢坐到炉子上的猫。",[19,144,145],{},[76,146,147],{},"要从别人的错误中吸取教训，尽量不要从自己的错误中吸取教训。永远不要玩\"致命\"的游戏。",[19,149,150],{},[76,151,152],{},"不要将社会进步与赚钱机会混为一谈，看看航空和汽车行业吧。",[19,154,155],{},"例如，学会像律师一样思考是一种宝贵的特质。法律学位并非必要条件，但如果您认为该学位对您的特定职业有帮助，那就再好不过了。",[19,157,158],{},[76,159,160],{},"比如他花更多时间阅读。阅读大量的10-K 和10-Q 报告，没有什么能够替代这些工作。阅读每一页。",[19,162,163],{},[76,164,165],{},"始终阅读原始数据，而不是二手数据。",[19,167,168],{},[76,169,170],{},"向企业管理层提出以下问题：如果你可以购买竞争对手的股票，你会购买哪一家？如果可以做空，你会做空哪一家？",[19,172,173],{},[76,174,175],{},"如果你对一家公司感兴趣，就去了解竞争对手的报告。你必须像真的要进入该行业一样，如果你真的要进",[19,177,178],{},[76,179,180],{},"入，你就会想知道你的竞争对手在做什么。",[19,182,183],{},[76,184,185],{},"今天从零开始创建一个基金：可能会跟从前一样开始。",[69,187,189],{"id":188},"_4给非专业投资者的建议","4，给非专业投资者的建议",[19,191,192],{},"如果你喜欢每周花6-8 小时进行投资，那就去做吧。",[19,194,195],{},"如果没有，那就用平均成本法投资指数基金。这样可以实现资产和时间的多样化，这两点非常重要。",[19,197,198],{},"'一无所知'的投资者意识到这一点并没有错。问题在于，当你是一个'一无所知'的投资者，但你却认为自己知道些什么。",[69,200,202],{"id":201},"_5为什么更多的人不听从他的建议","5，为什么更多的人不听从他的建议？",[19,204,205],{},"建议的反馈不够，因为它不是一个\"快速致富\"的计划，而这正是许多其他理念所承诺的。",[19,207,208],{},"他提到，在他年轻的时候，他就开始使用技术分析进行投资，但他发现自己始终无法利用技术分析赚到钱。",[19,210,211],{},"当我把图表颠倒过来，却没有得到不同的答案时，我意识到技术分析不起作用。在看到制表法行不通之后，他改用了格雷厄姆的方法。这样既合理又有效。",[69,213,215],{"id":214},"_6人类误判心理学","6，人类误判心理学",[19,217,218],{},"投资与智商无关。他曾多次说过，不需要125 以上的智商就能做到这一点。事实上，超过这个数字的智商几乎都是浪费。",[19,220,221,222,225],{},"保持在能力圈范围内是最重要的。当你在能力圈内时，请记住这些事情：",[76,223,224],{},"不要着急","。你最好不要与他人交",[19,227,228],{},"谈。不要放弃继续寻找机会，直到找到为止。好点子总是扎堆出现，按时间、行业、资产类别划分。",[69,230,232],{"id":231},"_7估值使用的贴现率","7，估值使用的贴现率：",[19,234,235],{},"使用长期标准国债利率，如6%。不要对不同的业务使用不同的贴现率。只要你对未来的现金流保持理智、诚实和保守，使用什么贴现率并不重要。",[19,237,238],{},"为了评估投资的可行性，只需要比较一个变量：价格\u002F价值。",[19,240,241],{},"如果我们允许贴现率发生变化，就会产生不止一个变量。",[19,243,244],{},"他对公司风险的评估已纳入公司未来现金流情况的概率中。",[19,246,247],{},"我不知道企业真正的资本成本是多少，除非我们拥有它。",[69,249,251],{"id":250},"_8管理伯克希尔","8，管理伯克希尔",[19,253,254],{},"随着时间的推移，专注于创造一家他喜欢的公司，以他喜欢的工作方式建立公司。",[19,256,257],{},"讨厌会议、管理员工，公司惯例。",[19,259,260],{},"公司总部没有总法律顾问或投资者关系部，只有17 名员工。",[19,262,263],{},"董事每年只亲自会面一次。",[19,265,266],{},"我不给企业经理打电话，而是他们给我打电话。",[69,268,270],{"id":269},"_9购买企业","9，购买企业",[19,272,273],{},[76,274,275],{},"我问的第一个问题是：老板是爱生意还是爱钱？这很容易区分。",[19,277,278],{},"能够为许多企业提供一个好的归宿，我感到非常自豪。这就像为一幅画找一个归宿。想要出售的企业主可以把企业卖给伯克希尔，就像把画放在大都会艺术博物馆一样，或者卖给杠杆收购者，他们会把企业拆分，把会计打扮一下，然后再次转卖，就像把画卖给色情商店一样。",[69,280,282],{"id":281},"_10为什么他有大量现金头寸","10，为什么他有大量现金头寸",[19,284,285],{},"找不到要买的东西。",[19,287,288],{},"伯克希尔投资几十亿资金购买一只股票，但如果无法控股，他也不会感到困扰。",[19,290,291],{},"投资有时就像在桶里射鱼，有时甚至像在没水的桶里射鱼。现在不是这样，但将来还会有这样的时候。",[69,293,295],{"id":294},"_11次级抵押贷款行业","11，次级抵押贷款行业",[19,297,298],{},"次级抵押贷款与商品房融资有相似之处。对次级抵押贷款行业来说，最重要的因素是经济的健康状况，而近期的经济状况良好。证券化使最终贷款人远离借款人，这就是问题所在。除非我们看到长期利率大幅上升200-300 个基点，否则冲击可能不会发生。只要该行业的参与者收取的利率足够高，以覆盖固有的信贷风险，就应该没问题。就房价而言，在抵押物价值低于贷款价值之前不会有问题。我们还没有涉足这个领域，但我们确实拥有H&R Block 公司，该公司也提供一些此类贷款，不过他们并不保留贷款。次贷行业的房地产投资信托结构未必是坏事。经济本身将比金融工具所使用的结构重要得多。",[69,300,302],{"id":301},"_12银行业的竞争优势和业务模式","12，银行业的竞争优势和业务模式",[19,304,305,308,309,312],{},[76,306,307],{},"银行业是一门好生意，许多银行的有形资产回报率很高","。查理和我对银行的盈利能力感到惊讶，因为这似乎是一种普通商品业务。",[76,310,311],{},"他们低估了客户的粘性，很大程度不了解银行收费能力","。富国银行每股有形股权为15 美元，而每股税后收益为4 美元。",[19,314,315],{},"银行投资回报率与规模的相关性不高。如果你有一家经营良好的银行，你不需要成为一个地区的第一大银行。购买银行可能需要支付3 倍的有形资产。",[19,317,318],{},"银行唯一的问题是，有时他们会变得疯狂，做出蠢事。1991 年就是一个很好的例子。如果银行不在资产方面做蠢事，就能赚大钱.",[69,320,322],{"id":321},"_12汽车行业前景","12，汽车行业前景",[19,324,325],{},"通用汽车债券目前以B 级利差出售。",[19,327,328],{},"汽车行业是一个非常艰难的行业。1960 年代，通用汽车占据了美国汽车市场50%以上的份额，人们认为他们坚不可摧。通用汽车进行了愚蠢的劳资交易，而会计核算不要求计入应计成本。通用汽车现在是一家糟糕的人寿健康福利公司，附带汽车业务。汽车业务管理良好，但劳工问题是致命伤。在亨利·福特之后成立了2000 家汽车公司，现在美国只剩下3 家。长期以来汽车行业没有真正赚到钱。",[69,330,332],{"id":331},"_13关于可乐的思考","13，关于可乐的思考",[19,334,335],{},"可口可乐未来不再是碳酸饮料行业领导者的可能性很小。糖果店在其市场上根深蒂固，很难被取代，但它们很难进入新市场，而可口可乐顺利地进入了新市场。",[19,337,338,341,342,345],{},[76,339,340],{},"可乐作为一种消费品，最重要的一点是可乐没有\"味道记忆\"","。换句话说**，可乐的味道不会在你的口中累积**。因此，有些人很容易每天喝5 罐以上的可乐。因为没有味道残留，所以百喝不厌。橘子或葡萄汽水的味道会累积起来，让你感到厌烦。巧克力也是一样。",[76,343,344],{},"可乐的口味边际效用不会递减","。巴菲特从没见过类似现象的论述。",[69,347,349],{"id":348},"_14押注货币对冲","14，押注货币对冲",[19,351,352],{},"目前拥有200 多亿美元外币。对哪种货币对美元最有利尚无定论。利率上升也会加重外国人的偿债负担。美国每天的消费比我们的生产多5%。美国就像一个拥有庞大农场的巨富家庭，我们不断将越来越大的农场抵押给外国人。外国人净持有3 万亿美元的美国证券，每天增加20 亿美元。这并不是对美国的\"悲观\"的押注，美国仍然是一个拥有一流基础设施的伟大国家。11 月份与中国的贸易逆差为160 亿美元，年度1900 亿美元。",[19,354,355],{},"这不是短期赌注，不知道美元明年会怎么走，这是五年赌注。典型的投资者不应该做同样的赌注，除非他发现了一只有吸引力的外国股票，可以买入股票，而不必对冲货币风险。他在购买外国证券时从不对冲货币风险，因为他喜欢这种额外的分散性。",[69,357,359],{"id":358},"_15其它市场","15，其它市场",[19,361,362],{},"如果人民币汇率重估10-20%，可能也不会产生实质性影响，因为中国和美国的劳动力成本差距太大了。中国不太可能取消挂钩美元的汇率政策。",[19,364,365],{},"沃尔玛在中国大举扩张。",[19,367,368],{},"我不认为新兴经济体会对美国的影响有什么戏剧性的变化。",[19,370,371],{},"欧元虽然会有压力，但从长远来看应该没问题。这对欧洲和世界都是一件好事。",[69,373,375],{"id":374},"_16关于通货膨胀","16，关于通货膨胀",[19,377,378],{},"消费物价指数CPI 在衡量通货膨胀方面存在缺陷。普通人的CPI 与用于计算通货膨胀的加权CPI 的构成截然不同。CPI 低估了人类消费。",[19,380,381],{},"企业的合同期限通常为3-12 个月，因此通货膨胀会大幅滞后。较高的原材料成本最终会转嫁给消费者。",[19,383,384],{},"医疗保健占消费物价指数的6%，但占GDP 的14%。",[19,386,387],{},"20 年前，住房所有权已从CPI 中剔除，取而代之的是估算的租金金额，自那以后，租金没有上涨，但房价却上涨了。幸运的是，房价上涨所带来的负担暂时被较低的利率所抵消。",[69,389,391],{"id":390},"_17关于石油天然气和铝业","17，关于石油天然气和铝业",[19,393,394],{},"每个人都认为石油价格上涨很多，您必须考虑到美元的疲软。如果您看一下以欧元计价的石油价格，它的涨幅并不大。黄金的情况也是一样。我们已经看到许多原材料的实际价格上涨，煤炭就是一个很好的例子；现在非常稀缺。我们不经常玩石油或大宗商品价格下注的游戏。",[19,396,397],{},"中美能源正在考虑在阿拉斯加州铺设输油管道。阿拉斯加拥有80-90 万亿立方英尺的天然气。阿拉斯加的问题：每立方米2 美元的运输成本。建立管道需要6-7 年时间，在未来价格前景不确定的情况下，很难做出6-7 年的承诺。与液化天然气终端建设问题相同。 大多数大宗商品公司都不信任当前的价格能得以维持，因为他们已经巨幅波动多次。",[19,399,400],{},"美国石油勘探困难重重。如今，我们的陆上产量为每天600 万桶。我们曾经在石油生产方面自给自足，以至于不得不定期停产，因为我们生产的石油太多了。美国是世界上石油勘探最多的国家，美国下48 个州已有30-40年未发现真正的大油田了。伯克希尔并不打算在石油勘探业务中进行任何实质性押注。",[19,402,403],{},"对铝业没有真正的看法。原材料企业的问题在于没有品牌识别，没有人会说：我只想喝装在美国铝业铝罐里的可乐。铝在很大程度上只是储存起来的电力，因为电力是其生产成本的重要组成部分。",[69,405,407],{"id":406},"_18关于公共政策","18，关于公共政策",[19,409,410],{},"我们必须牢记，社保不是为你我准备的。1-2 千万人年老时将无法养活自己。像美国这样的富裕社会应该为其公民提供这种支持。在一个人有所作为之前，社会应该提供良好的学校，在一个人有所作为之后，社会应该提供财政支持。不要认为让能力较差的投资者自己去做是件好事，他们需要帮助，他们没有成为优秀投资者的\"天赋\"，我们有责任帮助他们获得尽可能高的社保基础。私有化计划将降低基数，并要求您投资以弥补差额。",[69,412,414],{"id":413},"_19关于慈善","19，关于慈善",[19,416,417],{},"慈善工作与投资恰恰相反。在慈善工作中，我们寻找的是最难解决、成功概率最低的问题去做。巴菲特正向受托人提供指导方针，但他并没有明确指定要捐给哪里。他意识到，在他离开后的遥远未来，他不知道将会出现什么大的问题，需要受托人自己决定。",[69,419,421],{"id":420},"_20沃伦的成功","20，沃伦的成功",[19,423,424],{},"我生来就能很好地配置资本。如果我出生在孟加拉国，走在大街上说：\"我善于配置资本\"，镇上的人会说\"去找份工作吧\"。比尔盖茨说，如果我出生在一千年前，我将无法生存，因为我跑的速度不够快，也不够强壮。我可能会成为狮子的午餐。",[426,427],"hr",{},{"title":429,"searchDepth":430,"depth":430,"links":431},"",2,[432],{"id":16,"depth":430,"text":17,"children":433},[434,436,437,438,439,440],{"id":31,"depth":435,"text":31},3,{"id":40,"depth":435,"text":40},{"id":46,"depth":435,"text":46},{"id":52,"depth":435,"text":52},{"id":58,"depth":435,"text":58},{"id":67,"depth":435,"text":67},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特接待范德比尔特大学学生访问，分享投资理念与职业建议，强调培养技能、投资自己与长期思考。","md",{},true,60,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":5,"description":443},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng","IlTJkLyqbgMgJ6L9hjhr68j_ZXc4YjDPDx2P3WWVUX8","buffett",[456,461,464,468,471,474,477,480,483,486,490,493,496,500,503,506,510,513,516,520,523,526,530,533,536,540,543,546,550,553,556,560,563,566,570,573,576,580,583,586,590,593,596,600,603,606,610,613,616,620,623,626,630,633,636,640,643,646,650,653,656,660,663,666,670,673,676,680,683,686,690,693,696,700,703,706,710,713,716,720,723,726,730,733,736,740,743,746,750,753,756,760,763,766,770,773,776,780,783,786,790,793,797,800,804,807,811,814,818,821,825,828,832,835,839,842,846,849,853,856,860,863,867,870,874,877,881,884,888,891,895,898,902,905,909,912,916,919,923,926,930,933,937,940,944,947,951,954,958,961,965,968,971,972,976,979,983,986,990,993,997,1000,1004,1007,1011,1014,1018,1021,1025,1028,1032,1035,1039,1042,1046,1049,1053,1056,1060,1063,1067,1070,1074,1077,1081,1084,1088,1091,1095,1098,1102,1105,1109,1112,1116,1119,1123,1126,1130,1133,1137,1140,1144,1147,1151,1154,1158,1161,1165,1168,1172,1175,1179,1182,1186,1189,1193,1196,1200,1203,1207,1210,1214,1217,1221,1224,1228,1231,1235,1238,1242,1245,1249,1252,1256,1260,1264,1268,1272,1276,1280,1284,1288,1292,1296,1300,1304,1308,1312,1316,1320,1324,1328,1332,1336,1340,1344,1348,1352,1356,1360,1364,1368,1372,1376,1380,1384,1388,1392,1396,1400,1404,1408,1412,1416,1420,1424,1428,1432,1436,1440,1444,1448,1452],{"title":457,"slug":458,"category":459,"order":460},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":462,"slug":463,"category":441,"order":460},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":465,"slug":466,"category":467,"order":460},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":469,"slug":470,"category":459,"order":430},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":472,"slug":473,"category":441,"order":430},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":475,"slug":476,"category":467,"order":430},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":478,"slug":479,"category":459,"order":435},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":481,"slug":482,"category":441,"order":435},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":484,"slug":485,"category":467,"order":435},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":487,"slug":488,"category":459,"order":489},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":491,"slug":492,"category":441,"order":489},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":494,"slug":495,"category":467,"order":489},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":497,"slug":498,"category":459,"order":499},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":501,"slug":502,"category":441,"order":499},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":504,"slug":505,"category":467,"order":499},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":507,"slug":508,"category":459,"order":509},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":511,"slug":512,"category":441,"order":509},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":514,"slug":515,"category":467,"order":509},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":517,"slug":518,"category":459,"order":519},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":521,"slug":522,"category":441,"order":519},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":524,"slug":525,"category":467,"order":519},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":527,"slug":528,"category":459,"order":529},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":531,"slug":532,"category":441,"order":529},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":534,"slug":535,"category":467,"order":529},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":537,"slug":538,"category":459,"order":539},"1962年11月 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巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":889,"slug":890,"category":441,"order":887},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":892,"slug":893,"category":459,"order":894},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":896,"slug":897,"category":441,"order":894},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":899,"slug":900,"category":459,"order":901},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":903,"slug":904,"category":441,"order":901},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":906,"slug":907,"category":459,"order":908},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":910,"slug":911,"category":441,"order":908},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":913,"slug":914,"category":459,"order":915},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":917,"slug":918,"category":441,"order":915},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":920,"slug":921,"category":459,"order":922},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":924,"slug":925,"category":441,"order":922},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":927,"slug":928,"category":459,"order":929},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":931,"slug":932,"category":441,"order":929},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":934,"slug":935,"category":459,"order":936},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":938,"slug":939,"category":441,"order":936},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":941,"slug":942,"category":459,"order":943},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":945,"slug":946,"category":441,"order":943},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":948,"slug":949,"category":459,"order":950},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":952,"slug":953,"category":441,"order":950},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":955,"slug":956,"category":459,"order":957},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":959,"slug":960,"category":441,"order":957},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":962,"slug":963,"category":459,"order":964},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":966,"slug":967,"category":441,"order":964},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":969,"slug":970,"category":459,"order":447},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"slug":451,"category":441,"order":447},{"title":973,"slug":974,"category":459,"order":975},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":977,"slug":978,"category":441,"order":975},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":980,"slug":981,"category":459,"order":982},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":984,"slug":985,"category":441,"order":982},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":987,"slug":988,"category":459,"order":989},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":991,"slug":992,"category":441,"order":989},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":994,"slug":995,"category":459,"order":996},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":998,"slug":999,"category":441,"order":996},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1001,"slug":1002,"category":459,"order":1003},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1005,"slug":1006,"category":441,"order":1003},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1008,"slug":1009,"category":459,"order":1010},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1012,"slug":1013,"category":441,"order":1010},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1015,"slug":1016,"category":459,"order":1017},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1019,"slug":1020,"category":441,"order":1017},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1022,"slug":1023,"category":459,"order":1024},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1026,"slug":1027,"category":441,"order":1024},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1029,"slug":1030,"category":459,"order":1031},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1033,"slug":1034,"category":441,"order":1031},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1036,"slug":1037,"category":459,"order":1038},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1040,"slug":1041,"category":441,"order":1038},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1043,"slug":1044,"category":459,"order":1045},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1047,"slug":1048,"category":441,"order":1045},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1050,"slug":1051,"category":459,"order":1052},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1054,"slug":1055,"category":441,"order":1052},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1057,"slug":1058,"category":459,"order":1059},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1061,"slug":1062,"category":441,"order":1059},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1064,"slug":1065,"category":459,"order":1066},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1068,"slug":1069,"category":441,"order":1066},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1071,"slug":1072,"category":459,"order":1073},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1075,"slug":1076,"category":441,"order":1073},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1078,"slug":1079,"category":459,"order":1080},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1082,"slug":1083,"category":441,"order":1080},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1085,"slug":1086,"category":459,"order":1087},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1089,"slug":1090,"category":441,"order":1087},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1092,"slug":1093,"category":459,"order":1094},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1096,"slug":1097,"category":441,"order":1094},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1099,"slug":1100,"category":459,"order":1101},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1103,"slug":1104,"category":441,"order":1101},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1106,"slug":1107,"category":459,"order":1108},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1110,"slug":1111,"category":441,"order":1108},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1113,"slug":1114,"category":459,"order":1115},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1117,"slug":1118,"category":441,"order":1115},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1120,"slug":1121,"category":459,"order":1122},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1124,"slug":1125,"category":441,"order":1122},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1127,"slug":1128,"category":459,"order":1129},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1131,"slug":1132,"category":441,"order":1129},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1134,"slug":1135,"category":459,"order":1136},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1138,"slug":1139,"category":441,"order":1136},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1141,"slug":1142,"category":459,"order":1143},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1145,"slug":1146,"category":441,"order":1143},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1148,"slug":1149,"category":459,"order":1150},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1152,"slug":1153,"category":441,"order":1150},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1155,"slug":1156,"category":459,"order":1157},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1159,"slug":1160,"category":441,"order":1157},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1162,"slug":1163,"category":459,"order":1164},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1166,"slug":1167,"category":441,"order":1164},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1169,"slug":1170,"category":459,"order":1171},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1173,"slug":1174,"category":441,"order":1171},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1176,"slug":1177,"category":459,"order":1178},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1180,"slug":1181,"category":441,"order":1178},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1183,"slug":1184,"category":459,"order":1185},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1187,"slug":1188,"category":441,"order":1185},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1190,"slug":1191,"category":459,"order":1192},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1194,"slug":1195,"category":441,"order":1192},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1197,"slug":1198,"category":459,"order":1199},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1201,"slug":1202,"category":441,"order":1199},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1204,"slug":1205,"category":459,"order":1206},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1208,"slug":1209,"category":441,"order":1206},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1211,"slug":1212,"category":459,"order":1213},"2022 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