[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2215},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":679,"library-sidebar-dao":1681,"library-sidebar-models":1983},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":665,"date":666,"description":667,"extension":668,"meta":669,"navigation":670,"order":671,"path":672,"seo":673,"seoDescription":667,"seoTitle":674,"slug":675,"stem":676,"__hash__":677,"_collection":678},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji.md","巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":660},"minimark",[9,13,18,22,28,31,34,37,40,43,46,49,52,55,58,66,69,72,75,78,81,84,87,94,97,100,103,106,109,112,115,118,121,124,127,130,133,136,139,142,145,148,151,154,157,160,163,166,169,172,177,180,183,186,189,192,195,198,204,207,210,213,216,222,229,232,235,238,245,248,251,253,256,259,265,268,271,274,277,280,283,286,289,292,295,298,304,307,310,313,319,322,325,328,331,334,337,340,343,346,349,352,355,358,361,364,367,370,373,376,379,382,385,388,391,394,397,400,403,406,409,412,415,418,421,424,427,430,433,439,442,445,448,451,454,457,460,463,466,469,472,475,478,481,484,487,490,497,500,507,510,516,519,525,531,534,537,540,543,546,549,552,555,558,561,564,571,574,577,580,583,586,589,592,595,598,601,604,607,610,613,616,619,622,625,628,633,636,639,642,648,651,654,657],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特2008年解析经济危机",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特解析经济危机2008","巴菲特：解析经济危机2008",[19,20,21],"p",{},"2008 年10 月1 日",[23,24,25],"blockquote",{},[19,26,27],{},"查理罗斯：接下来的一小时，我们将对话沃伦巴菲特。今天下午，我们在加州圣地亚哥与他进行交流。他是国会领导人、政府和美联储都渴望交流的对象。他是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司传奇的董事长兼首席执行官，该公司的成功让他成为世界首富。长期以来，他的投资成果备受赞誉，他的常识以及多年来在年度致股东信中对一些导致美国和全球经济危机因素的预警，让人们对他信赖有加。基于这些原因，我们来到圣地亚哥与他会面，他正在这里参加《财富》杂志举办的最具影响力女性峰会。稍后，《财富》杂志记者、他的多年好友卡罗尔卢米斯将在会议上对他进行采访。今晚，我们在圣地亚哥的公共电视台KPBS 的演播室进行录制。",[19,29,30],{},"罗斯：感谢我的朋友沃伦·巴菲特在百忙之中抽出时间与我们交谈。",[19,32,33],{},"巴菲特：我很荣幸，查理。",[19,35,36],{},"罗斯：今天新闻你宣布以与投资高盛类似的条款，向通用电气投资30 亿美元。为什么选择通用电气？",[19,38,39],{},"巴菲特：条款几乎完全一样。今天早上，我在高盛的一位朋友打电话给我，说通用电气可能对这样的投资感兴趣。我对通用电气很熟悉，也了解其管理层。我认识现任管理层，在Jeff Immelt 杰夫·伊梅尔特之前，我就认识Jack Welsh 杰克·韦尔奇，我们相识数十年了。所以我了解他们的业务。通用电气在道琼斯工业平均指数中历史悠久，我想它还会存续100 年。希望那时我也还在。这是一项很有吸引力的投资。过去几年我们手握大量资金，现在看到了一些不错的投资机会。",[19,41,42],{},"罗斯：你还在关注其他项目吗？",[19,44,45],{},"巴菲特：我关注所有的项目，查理。这是我的工作。我每天都在思考各种事情，真的是所有事情。",[19,47,48],{},"罗斯：现在都说现金为王。你手头持有大量现金，是不是意味着现在正是伯克希尔和你仔细寻找投资机会的时候？",[19,50,51],{},"巴菲特：我们想用现金进行投资。两年前我们没动用现金，是因为没发现有足够吸引力的项目。",[19,53,54],{},"**人们说现金为王，如果现金一直闲置，那它就不是王。**有时候现金的购买力更强，现在就是这样的时期，现金能买到更多东西，所以我们要利用好它。",[19,56,57],{},"罗斯：有积累现金的时候，也有使用现金的时候。",[19,59,60,61,65],{},"巴菲特：没错。",[62,63,64],"strong",{},"别人恐惧时你要贪婪，别人贪婪时你要恐惧。就是这么简单","。",[19,67,68],{},"罗斯：那现在人们处于什么状态？",[19,70,71],{},"巴菲特：他们非常恐惧。事实上，在我成年后的记忆里，我从未见过人们像现在这样对经济状况如此担忧。",[19,73,74],{},"罗斯：你觉得原因是什么？",[19,76,77],{},"巴菲特：因为他们看到信贷市场冻结，开始担忧货币市场基金，尽管政府最近的提案应该能解决这个问题。他们还看到，在过去几周内，美国8%的银行存款被巧妙地从几个月前还认为可靠的机构转移到了其他机构。他们的担忧并非毫无道理。",[19,79,80],{},"罗斯：就像人们常说的，这种影响在普通民众中有所体现吗？",[19,82,83],{},"巴菲特：我今天听说了汽车销售的情况。如果你是汽车经销商，肯定能感受到冲击。像我们旗下经营家具零售的公司，也能明显感觉到。珠宝零售商也是如此。我对这些行业有所了解，因为我们涉足其中。这种影响已经显现，但如果我们不采取措施，影响会更大。",[19,85,86],{},"罗斯：参议院今晚将进行投票。你对救援计划满意吗？",[19,88,89,90,93],{},"巴菲特：我认为这个计划并不完美，但我也不确定自己能否制定出完美的方案。我宁愿大致正确，也不愿精确错误。拒绝这个计划肯定是错误的。",[62,91,92],{},"我们的经济很棒，就像一位优秀的运动员突然心脏骤停倒在地上，急救人员已经赶","到。他们不应该纠结于把复苏设备放偏了四分之一英寸，也不应该指责病人之前没做血压检查之类的。他们应该立刻采取必要措施，我认为他们会的。我觉得国会会做出正确的决定。虽然他们陷入了争论，开始互相指责，还出现了一些煽动性言论，但最终，面对如此重要的事情，他们会做出正确选择。这真的是一场经济上的珍珠港事件。听起来可能有些夸张，但我以前从未这么说过，这次真的是。",[19,95,96],{},"罗斯：除了信贷冻结、无人放贷、银行停止拆借、国债收益率走低这些情况，还有什么原因让你这么认为？",[19,98,99],{},"巴菲特：上周，美国发行了400 亿美元的7 天期国债，收益率仅为0.05%，这意味着美国很多人几乎到了把钱藏在床垫下的地步。因为把钱存银行和藏在床垫下的收益只差0.05%。但我们不希望3 亿美国人都把钱藏起来。没有信贷和信任作为经济的润滑剂，经济就无法正常运转，而现在这些都缺失了，这是个大问题。目前全球主要金融机构都想去杠杆，减少资产和负债。一年前还很容易借到钱，现在这些债务对他们来说就像毒药。所以他们都在努力去杠杆。而全球只有美国财政部有能力通过加杠杆来对抗这种趋势。",[19,101,102],{},"罗斯：从Bear Stearns 贝尔斯登、Lehman Brothers 雷曼兄弟、AIG 美国国际集团、Freddie 房地美和Fannie Mae 房利美，到你对高盛及其他公司的投资，对于导致当前局面的一系列事件，你怎么看？",[19,104,105],{},"巴菲特：我认为基本上采取的措施是正确的，但没人能完全预见到这场海啸般的危机。贝尔斯登出现问题时，人们觉得如果能在那时阻止危机蔓延，就不用担心后续影响。我认为美联储当时的做法是正确的。我原本以为这能阻止其他主要机构遭遇挤兑，但事实并非如此。危机一波接着一波。不可否认，应对措施在一定程度上是临时拼凑的，但有应对总比没有好。我觉得财政部几个月前根本不可能向国会详细说明发生的情况，让国会相信并授予必要的权力。只有这样的危机发生，才有可能推动这些措施。",[19,107,108],{},"罗斯：还有他们要求的权力和资金规模。",[19,110,111],{},"巴菲特：几个月前他们肯定得不到这些。到目前为止，这就像一场悲剧。但此刻，我认为大多数国会议员都已经清楚，美国民众也会逐渐明白，在金融机构每天都在抛售金融工具、信贷枯竭的情况下，只有美国财政部有能力扭转局面。",[19,113,114],{},"罗斯：与此同时，国会议员们表示，全国各地都有抵制情绪，因为大家认为这是在救助华尔街，而他们自己面临经济困境时，却没人站出来说\"我们是政府，来帮助你们了\"。",[19,116,117],{},"巴菲特：但躺在地上心脏骤停的\"病人\"不是华尔街，而是美国经济。",[19,119,120],{},"罗斯：你觉得他们明白这一点吗？",[19,122,123],{},"巴菲特：我觉得他们可能还不明白。只要一提到\"救助华尔街\"之类的说法，人们就会反感。我也不喜欢华尔街的一些做法，比如高管薪酬问题。但现在不是指责的时候，美国经济就像心脏病发作的病人，我想先让它恢复运转。实际上，如果你是贝尔斯登的股东，你会损失90-95%的资本金，很多人还会失业，失去原本优渥的生活。雷曼兄弟的股东也是如此，AIG 的股东也遭受重创。这些股东不只是华尔街的大亨，还有养老金基金和全国各地的投资者。我觉得不用太担心这个。正义也许无法完美实现，你可能会对那些拿着巨额离职补偿金离开的人感到愤怒，但这不是最重要的。就像珍珠港事件发生时，你可以指责军方之前的规划有误，或者说战舰不应该停在港口，但这些都无济于事。这就是珍珠港事件，你不能花几周时间去追究责任，或者制定一个全面的战争计划，让委员会来决定战舰该驶向何方。你应该让最得力的人迅速采取行动。",[19,125,126],{},"罗斯：你这辈子都没见过这样的情况吗？",[19,128,129],{},"巴菲特：是的，从未见过。",[19,131,132],{},"罗斯：人们认为我们正走向衰退，甚至担心出现大萧条。如果这个救助计划不起作用，会发生这种情况吗？",[19,134,135],{},"巴菲特：确实有这种担忧。我们现在的失业率约为6.1%。从常识判断，我们已经处于衰退之中，因为美国民众拥有约20 万亿美元的住宅资产，还有大约20 万亿美元的股票，这是美国家庭的两大主要资产。不同家庭的这两项资产都大幅缩水。至少95%的人，其住宅和股票财富相比一年前或两年前都减少了。这种情况正影响到实体经济，汽车、珠宝和家具等行业的销售都受到冲击，而这波影响才刚刚开始。如果信贷市场持续瘫痪，每个公司都只想缩减资产负债表、出售资产，那后果不堪设想。失业率肯定会上升，6.1%的失业率还会更高。但最终失业率是停留在7%，还是会升至10%、11%或12%，这取决于国会的决策，以及后续执行计划的智慧。",[19,137,138],{},"罗斯：你强烈主张参议院和众议院通过这个计划，你认为这个计划是目前唯一的选择，虽然没有更好的方案，但对恢复国家和金融体系的信心至关重要，对吗？",[19,140,141],{},"巴菲特：是的。我只是担心这个计划力度是否足够。",[19,143,144],{},"罗斯：担心哪方面的力度不够？",[19,146,147],{},"巴菲特：时间非常关键。如果在珍珠港事件发生后的一两周甚至三周内都不做出反应，你在这场战争中就会处于劣势。本周，美国国会必须展现出采取必要行动的决心，大部分议员都要付诸行动。虽然不可能获得全体一致同意，但必须有所行动。",[19,149,150],{},"罗斯：你为什么相信这个计划会奏效？",[19,152,153],{},"巴菲特：我认为汉克·保尔森是非常出色的财政部长。他在这个艰难时刻上任，或许他本不该接受这个职位，他是我的朋友。但他了解市场，知道企业的运作方式，也懂金融，而且一心为国家利益着想。还有FDIC 主席Sheila Bair，她在过去两周内，成功将美国8%的银行存款转移到可靠的机构，这些机构也因此获得了更多资金。她的工作非常出色，涉及美国数千万储户的存款转移，却没人听说过她，她也不会得到巨额离职补偿金或遣散费。我们有很多优秀的公职人员，我认为现在参与应对危机的人员很合适，只是他们需要更多手段。",[19,155,156],{},"罗斯：除了这个计划中的措施，他们还需要什么手段？",[19,158,159],{},"巴菲特：他们需要大量资金，而且在执行这个计划时需要足够的灵活性。在我看来，他们还需要密切关注市场价格。查理，我之前说过，如果财政部以当前市场价格购买MBS 抵押贷款相关证券或抵押贷款，随着时间推移，他们会盈利。因为美国政府有强大的财力，借贷成本也低。如果我能拿出700 亿美元中的1%，与他们共担盈亏，他们按市场价格购买这些资产，我肯定能赚不少钱。对冲基金等机构购买这些资产，期望获得15-20%的收益，他们就是那些想抛售资产的人的买家。美国财政部的借贷成本很低，几乎可以无限量借贷，还能长期持有这些资产。随着时间推移，这些资产的价值会上升。比如，美林证券一个月前以22 美分的价格出售价值1 美元的抵押贷款相关资产，买家肯定能赚钱，如果买家是美国政府这样借贷成本极低的机构，赚得会更多。",[19,161,162],{},"罗斯：所以对于那些担心700 亿美元去向的纳税人，你是说，购买和出售这些证券后，他们很有可能拿回大部分甚至全部资金，甚至还有盈利？",[19,164,165],{},"巴菲特：我敢打赌会这样。如果有机会参与这个项目，哪怕只占1%的份额，我都愿意赌一把。今天伯克希尔向通用电气投资30 亿美元，这不是花钱，而是投资。联邦政府购买抵押贷款也是投资，虽然投资的是不良资产，但如果按市场价格购买，就是低价买入。这是我喜欢做的投资，只是我没有700 亿美元。或许我们可以合作，用你的钱加上我的智慧，说不定能大获成功。",[19,167,168],{},"罗斯：行啊，不管怎样，我都参与。不过，有人提出，美国为什么不像伯克希尔那样进行投资呢？这对美国来说难道不是更好的选择吗？",[19,170,171],{},"巴菲特：我觉得效仿1932 年成立、1933 年在杰西·琼斯领导下实际运作的复兴金融公司(Reconstruction Finance Corp.)设立一个机构，也不失为一个办法。复兴金融公司最初主要投资银行和优先股等。金融体系目前需要解决两个问题，最迫切的是流动性问题。当人们都在去杠杆时，必须有人来购买资产，不一定要高价购买，但得有人买。此外，一些机构还存在资本问题。我们最近为几家机构提供了资金，1930 年代联邦政府通过复兴金融公司也做过类似的事，我认为政府在这方面可以发挥适当的作用。",[23,173,174],{},[19,175,176],{},"(美国国会1932 年1 月16 日立法通过成立RFC 复兴金融公司，胡佛1 月22 日签署生效，提供5 亿美元后增至33 亿美元资金用以挽救银行、铁路、建筑、贷款公司等金融机构。)",[19,178,179],{},"罗斯：现在采用这种方式会更好吗？",[19,181,182],{},"巴菲特：现在采用这种方式规模不够大。如果现在设立复兴金融公司，给它1000 亿美元用于投资，申请流程会非常繁琐。现在资产每天都在被抛售，商业票据也无法展期。商业票据市场一旦干涸，就像给美国经济放血，而这种情况正在发生。所以设立类似复兴金融公司的机构或许有意义，我自己可能也会这么做，但我不认为现在把这种方式和现有措施结合起来是好办法，目前最需要的是流动性。",[19,184,185],{},"罗斯：有人认为，美国一直对巴菲特很好，现在是他响应政府号召的时候了。除了管理好伯克希尔，你还准备做些什么？",[19,187,188],{},"巴菲特：管理好公司就是我的本职工作。任何时候，只要能为政府提供建议，我都很乐意，实际上我也提过一些建议，只是在关键时刻这些建议能否被采纳就不一定了。今晚我来谈论这些，也是出于这个原因。这对伯克希尔不一定有直接好处，但也不完全是。任何能让美国经济恢复正常运转的事，都对我们有益。我们的工厂和两年前一样，房子也还在，美国民众的生产效率比以往任何时候都高，我们有着优秀的经济发展模式。但现在，经济发展因当前的去杠杆化导致信贷危机，经济发展陷入停滞。",[19,190,191],{},"罗斯：我在介绍你时提到，如果你读过你每年写给股东的信就会发现，你曾谈到过衍生品。衍生品在一定程度上是这次危机的核心问题。",[19,193,194],{},"巴菲特：如果AIG 集团从未涉足衍生品业务，它今天肯定发展得很好。它曾是美国市值排名前十的公司，市值超过2000 亿美元，是全球最受尊敬的保险公司。如果没有衍生品，员工们每天正常上班，公司也不会有任何问题。**但衍生品业务操作简单，在小纸片上写下数字就能记录利润，而且没有限制，也没有资本金要求。我曾说过，衍生品可能是大规模杀伤性金融武器，事实证明的确如此。**它摧毁了AIG 集团，也在一定程度上导致了贝尔斯登和雷曼兄弟的倒闭，尽管雷曼兄弟还有其他问题。",[19,196,197],{},"罗斯：我对这个问题很感兴趣，因为人们问我，这些人是不是在这当中逃脱了惩罚？有没有人钻制度的空子，获取巨额利润，导致一系列过度行为，最终引发了这场危机？",[19,199,200,201],{},"巴菲特：这些情况都存在。",[62,202,203],{},"但我认为最大的单一原因是美国房地产市场出现了严重的泡沫。就像400 年前荷兰的郁金香泡沫，人们在恐惧和贪婪的驱使下，行为会导致泡沫产生。曾经还有1980 年代初美国中西部的农场泡沫，1990 年代末互联网泡沫，其中农场泡沫还引发了一系列悲剧。",[19,205,206],{},"3 亿美国人、他们的贷款机构、政府和媒体，都认为房价会持续上涨。这种预期被融入到价值20 万亿美元的住宅市场中，贷款也是基于此发放的。每个人都做了很多蠢事。对于那些欺诈行为，日后自会有人去追究责任。但这并非我们当前面临的核心问题，不过这确实是危机的根源。我们过度借贷，20 万亿美元的资产价值下跌20%，就意味着损失4 万亿美元。当这4 万亿美元的损失在经济体系中蔓延，就会让整个经济陷入困境。",[19,208,209],{},"罗斯：房地产市场的问题还在持续。有人认为，从美国经济的长期复苏角度来看，我们必须对此采取措施。",[19,211,212],{},"巴菲特：没错，问题还在持续。毫无疑问，我们的房地产库存过剩。但好的一面是，美国有新家庭组建。我不知道每年新增多少家庭，可能超过100 万户。所以我们可以消化一部分库存。目前库存太多，很多地方房价也曾不合理地飙升，融资方式愚蠢，贷款还存在欺诈行为，各种乱象丛生。这就是我们陷入当前困境的最大原因。",[19,214,215],{},"罗斯：明智的人难道不应该更有先见之明吗？",[19,217,218,219],{},"巴菲特：",[62,220,221],{},"人们本就应该更理智。但在贪婪面前，人很难保持理智。",[19,223,224,225,228],{},"看到邻居变得富有，你会难以忍受。你觉得自己比他聪明，他做那些事能发财，而你的配偶因为你没这么做而对你不满。很快，你也会跟着做。**这就是我所说的\"自然演进\"，有创新者、模仿者，最后是愚蠢的跟风者。**大家都随波逐流，如果你不这么做，反而显得格格不入。1990 年代末，互联网公司的估值高得离谱，但市场似乎证明了其合理性，第二天股价比前一天还高。人们都说，不参与就太傻了。这是人之常情。而房地产的情况更严重，因为大多数人都渴望拥有自己的房子。如果你真的认为房价明年、后年还会涨，就会觉得今年不买，明年就得花更多钱。买互联网股票不会有这种感觉，但买房会。而且当有人告诉你买房不用付太多钱，或者可以虚报一点收入，甚至能提供100%的贷款时，你就会心动，因为之前买房的人都赚了。",[62,226,227],{},"这就是所谓的\"社会认同\"","。如果你不买，就会觉得自己像个傻瓜。结果第二年，房价真的涨了。",[19,230,231],{},"罗斯：就好像捡到钱一样。",[19,233,234],{},"巴菲特：确实感觉像捡到钱。",[19,236,237],{},"罗斯：所以，当你审视现状时，至少在我看来，有两个明显的问题：风险和杠杆。我们完全忽视了合理的风险和杠杆水平。",[19,239,240,241,244],{},"巴菲特：人们还会这么做，因为短期内似乎有利可图。",[62,242,243],{},"过度使用杠杆是聪明人破产的常见原因","。如果你负债累累却无法偿还，即使你做了很多明智的决策，最终可能也无法致富。**使用杠杆做明智的事，只要出一点差错，就可能倾家荡产，任何数乘以0 都得零。**当周围的人都通过这种方式成功时，你也会受到影响。",[19,246,247],{},"这就像灰姑娘参加舞会，你知道午夜钟声敲响时，一切都会变回原样。但随着夜晚的推进，舞会上的男士看起来越来越英俊，音乐也越来越动听，钱也越赚越多。你会想，为什么要在11 点45 分离开呢？我11 点58 分再走就行。但问题是，墙上没有时钟，每个人都以为自己能在11 点58 分离开。",[19,249,250],{},"罗斯：而且你当时玩得很开心。",[19,252,60],{},[19,254,255],{},"罗斯：那么，如果这个计划实施，你希望它能起到什么作用？缓解信贷紧张？阻止经济下滑和恐慌？让人们重拾信心？",[19,257,258],{},"巴菲特：信心是关键。如果我让你把钱交给我，你得相信我会还给你才会这么做。现在，7 天期国债收益率只有0.05%，人们买国债不是为了那点收益，而是因为相信财政部下周会还钱。我手头有65 亿美元，10 月6 日要用于完成交易。在这之前，我必须谨慎选择存放这笔钱的地方，因为大家都等着我按时付款。但我对很多机构都失去了信心，很多机构都让我不放心。这样一来，资金就无法正常流转，整个经济就会陷入停滞。",[19,260,261,264],{},[62,262,263],{},"市场和机构的信心就像氧气，拥有的时候你不会在意，它却不可或缺","。你可能多年都不会想到它，但一旦失去5 分钟，它就会成为你唯一关注的事情。信贷市场和信心的\"氧气\"已经被抽干，必须想办法重新注入。",[19,266,267],{},"罗斯：这就是这个计划的目的吗？",[19,269,270],{},"巴菲特：这是我希望看到的结果。",[19,272,273],{},"罗斯：如果计划失败呢？",[19,275,276],{},"巴菲特：就像打开水龙头却没水流出。我和一些参议员、众议员讨论过，他们不能行动太慢、力度太小。在我看来，他们现在的行动已经有点晚了。不过，还好吧。珍珠港事件后，我们也争论了几周，讨论是不是日本发动的袭击，要不要派出几艘战舰。但力度太小可能是个错误，这件事必须要做好。",[19,278,279],{},"罗斯：力度太小，是指采取的措施不够激进，还是投入的资金不够多？",[19,281,282],{},"巴菲特：关键在于人们最终是否觉得力度不够。毕竟700 亿美元是一大笔钱，能买到很多不良资产。如果价格合适，可能买到面值2 万亿美元的资产。但有一点很重要，无论卖家之前花了多少钱，资产的账面价值是多少，都要按市场价格购买。一种可行的方法是，如果某个机构想卖给你价值10 亿美元的抵押贷款，它可能要先在市场上卖出1 亿美元，然后你再以相同条件买下剩下的9 亿美元。希望这个计划得到批准后，能在一定程度上稳定市场，这当然很好。但不能支付虚高的价格。",[19,284,285],{},"罗斯：你认为哪些方面可能永远不会回到从前了？",[19,287,288],{},"巴菲特：我觉得信心会恢复。我可以告诉你，10 年后美国民众的生活会比现在更好，20 年后会比10 年后更好。美国能成为世界奇迹，有其内在因素。20 世纪美国人均生活水平提高了7 倍。期间经历了大萧条、两次世界大战、流感大流行、石油危机等诸多磨难，但美国的制度激发了人们的潜力，让生活水平不断提高。在过去的几个世纪里，生活水平能有1%的提高就已经很不错了。我们有很棒的制度，现在的生产能力比以往任何时候都强，美国工人的生产效率也越来越高，劳动力也更加充足，未来一片光明。只是现在美国经济这个\"超级运动员\"倒下了。",[19,290,291],{},"罗斯：美国经济陷入困境，对全球有什么影响？",[19,293,294],{},"巴菲特：影响很大。我们已经有所体会，全球很多地方也受到了类似的冲击。欧洲的银行和美国的银行做着同样的事情。",[19,296,297],{},"罗斯：现在它们也陷入了困境。",[19,299,300,301],{},"巴菲特：他们从奥马哈的老百姓那里获得抵押贷款，然后进行多次证券化。",[62,302,303],{},"华尔街的那些人拿着高等学位，看起来学识渊博，带着各种复杂的公式。我只想说，要小心那些拿着公式的\"极客\"。",[19,305,306],{},"罗斯：在经济影响方面，我们有没有从这次危机中学到关于\"脱钩\"，或者美国经济影响力的一些东西？比如你有投资且非常了解的中国。",[19,308,309],{},"巴菲特：有。我前几天刚在中国做了一项新投资。一家叫BYD 比亚迪的汽车公司。",[19,311,312],{},"罗斯：除了基于价值、管理层、投资规模和前景、价格这些因素来投资，你的投资有没有什么特别的逻辑？",[19,314,315,316],{},"巴菲特：现在投资的项目规模要足够大，才能对我们产生影响。**我们会寻找规模较大的投资机会，投资我能理解的项目。**很多业务我都不了解，比如有人知道怎么在可可豆生意上赚钱，但我不懂，那我就不会涉足。",[62,317,318],{},"投资的项目必须是我能理解的，要有良好的经济基本面，管理层要让我欣赏、信任，价格也要合理。",[19,320,321],{},"罗斯：价格合理很重要。",[19,323,324],{},"巴菲特：现在价格比以前合理多了。我对我们的投资毫不担心。美国人均GDP 有4.6 万或4.7 万美元，我们一直发展得不错，未来会更好。我不担心美国的未来，只是担心任何阻碍美国发展潜力的因素，而现在这种阻碍因素很多。",[19,326,327],{},"罗斯：好的，我们实施了这个紧急救援计划。明年1 月，新总统上任，新的财政部长履职，新的立法机构产生。他们的当务之急是什么？他们面临的挑战是什么？毕竟他们可以从更长远的角度考虑问题。也许经济开始复苏，但还需要加快步伐。",[19,329,330],{},"巴菲特：我觉得一旦信贷恢复流动，经济就会加速复苏。不过，经济衰退还会持续一段时间。查理，我不想给大家不切实际的希望，以为几个月内情况就会好转，这是不可能的。误导民众是个大错误。情况肯定会好转，但我不知道是6 个月还是2 年。",[19,332,333],{},"罗斯：更有可能是2 年，而不是6 个月。",[19,335,336],{},"巴菲特：我也不确定，无论如何都不会是1 个月或2 个月。",[19,338,339],{},"罗斯：你觉得6 个月后，情况有可能开始好转吗？",[19,341,342],{},"巴菲特：这是最理想的情况。",[19,344,345],{},"罗斯：那最糟糕的情况呢？",[19,347,348],{},"巴菲特：经济低迷会持续很长时间。",[19,350,351],{},"罗斯：5 年吗？",[19,353,354],{},"巴菲特：如果我们不采取正确的措施，可能会持续5 年。",[19,356,357],{},"罗斯：除了目前的情况，还有哪些方面需要注意？",[19,359,360],{},"巴菲特：我想说，如果最新的法案只先拿出350 亿美元，之后再追加，这是不够的。我们要加大投入。就像我之前说的，这不是在花钱，而是投资。如果美国财政部明智地购买这些资产，是能盈利的。财政部借钱的成本每年只有几个百分点，而这些资产的收益会更高。",[19,362,363],{},"罗斯：但这是个很大的\"如果\"。",[19,365,366],{},"巴菲特：这取决于财政部长。",[19,368,369],{},"罗斯：这确实是关键问题，也就是我们能否明智地购买这些资产。",[19,371,372],{},"巴菲特：我觉得财政部长的人选比副总统的人选更重要。如果要辩论，我更想听听两位潜在财政部长候选人的辩论，而不是副总统候选人的辩论。",[19,374,375],{},"罗斯：总统候选人要是能告诉你他们会听取谁的建议，谁可能成为潜在的财政部长，那就太好了。",[19,377,378],{},"巴菲特：总统候选人都会说他们会听取你的建议。",[19,380,381],{},"罗斯：我猜他们肯定也这么跟你说了，对吧？",[19,383,384],{},"巴菲特：他们不会轻易透露候选人选。最近很多人打电话问我各种问题，你也从朋友和美联储的人那里听到了很多消息。你也经历过很多危机，见过很多事情发生。",[19,386,387],{},"罗斯：那些负责解决问题的聪明人找到你，会问些什么？他们想知道什么？",[19,389,390],{},"巴菲特：最近他们常问这个计划是否可行。",[19,392,393],{},"罗斯：你向他们保证，如果实施这个计划，就会有效吗？",[19,395,396],{},"巴菲特：我不知道下一任财政部长会是谁。但我想说，虽然华盛顿的人不喜欢我这个说法，但我会给像汉",[19,398,399],{},"克·保尔森这样的人一张近乎空白的支票。",[19,401,402],{},"罗斯：真的吗？给他700 亿美元的空白支票，让他随便花？",[19,404,405],{},"巴菲特：是的，让他去投资。让他自己也投入一些资金。我可能会让汉克和我一起投资。但通过535 个人(指国会议员)来做投资决策太难了，所以我会给他更多自主权。当然，这很难实现。",[19,407,408],{},"罗斯：不能在监督下进行吗？国会的意思是，在监督下进行，不要独自做决策。",[19,410,411],{},"巴菲特：监督当然重要。但监督应该主要关注投资是否按市场价格进行。换句话说，要确保政府投资不是盲目进行的，但不要去管资金流向哪个国会选区，或者哪些银行得到了优待。",[19,413,414],{},"罗斯：那我们如何判断投资是否明智呢？这是个大问题。",[19,416,417],{},"巴菲特：对资金的投资方式进行严格审查很重要。就像复兴金融公司……",[19,419,420],{},"罗斯：RFC 复兴金融公司和RTC 解决信托公司(Resolution Trust Company)有什么不同？他们现在讨论的是证券，而不是房地产。",[19,422,423],{},"巴菲特：RTC 公司是为了清算政府因储蓄贷款协会破产而接手的大量资产而设立的。储蓄贷款协会破产后，政府介入偿还储户的存款，然后就有了这些资产需要出售。而我们现在讨论的不是出售资产，而是明智地购买资产。RTC 公司要卖的是那些储蓄贷款协会经营者留下的资产，这些经营者很多都做了蠢事。RTC 公司的任务就是清算资产，他们也完成了任务。但现在的情况完全不同。",[19,425,426],{},"罗斯：你之前跟我说过，资本主义不是完美的制度。它可能比其他制度都好，但也存在缺陷。你也谈过它的一些不足之处。现在人们看着这场危机说，资本主义存在过度行为，市场也会失灵。一些国家的人指责我们说：\"看吧，我们就说市场不会一直让你们受益。\"",[19,428,429],{},"巴菲特：**只要有市场，就会有过度行为。人们为郁金香球茎疯狂过，为南海泡沫疯狂过，为互联网股票疯狂过，我刚开始投资的时候，人们还为铀矿股票疯狂过。人性很难改变，人也不会变得更理智。**虽然有各种制度来约束，但银行总能找到漏洞。他们设立各种机制来获取更多杠杆。当杠杆有效时，人们都喜欢加杠杆，从别人那里借钱太容易了……但如果你投资收益不够高，无法偿还债务，就会陷入困境。",[19,431,432],{},"罗斯：还有会计制度。你对会计制度和按市值计价有自己的看法。跟我讲讲你在这个问题上的立场。",[19,434,218,435,438],{},[62,436,437],{},"很多人不同意我的观点。但我支持按市值计价","。查理，1974 年或1975 年的时候，伯克希尔持有大量普通股。我告诉股东这些股票的市值，并以此为依据。我说，我认为这些股票的价值远高于市值，未来我们会赚很多钱。但这就是它们当下的市值。我觉得在这类事情上说实话不会有坏处。一旦开始用非市场价格来衡量资产，天知道会给金融带来什么麻烦……",[19,440,441],{},"罗斯：反对你的人会说，资产的实际价值远高于市值，所以按市值计价不能反映真实情况。",[19,443,444],{},"巴菲特：**市值就是现实，而且这些资产卖给财政部时，也是按市值计价的。如果给资产价值虚构数字，会带来很多麻烦。**你可以解释说当前价格是受市场低迷影响，你认为这些资产未来价值会更高，在某些情况下确实可以这么说。但如果突然说1 美元的现金价值2 美元，这是不对的，现在它就值1 美元。我认为一旦在财务报表中使用虚假数字，就会陷入大麻烦。过去20 年，这样的例子太多了。",[19,446,447],{},"罗斯：这种情况有恶化的趋势吗？",[19,449,450],{},"巴菲特：我不这么认为，是人们想把情况说得更糟。",[19,452,453],{},"罗斯：在会计制度方面，你认为应该如何改革？你会保留按市值计价吗？",[19,455,456],{},"巴菲特：相关规则变得极其复杂，执行起来简直是一场噩梦。但我想对伯克希尔的股东们坦诚相告，只要我们持有有价证券或存在市场定价的资产，哪怕市场情况不佳，我都会如实告知。事实上，我已经为明年的年报撰写了一部分内容，解释为什么我认为在某一情况下，我们资产负债表上按常规计算得出的数据是错误的。但这是行业通行的做法，是既定规则，美国SEC 希望我们这么做。",[19,458,459],{},"罗斯：展望美国的未来，有人认为，尽管美国很强大，但如今世界格局已经改变，一些书籍指出，美国的霸主地位和主导权必须与人共享。也许美国在全球经济蛋糕中的占比不会变，但其他国家的份额会大幅增加。",[19,461,462],{},"巴菲特：这没什么不好。我希望美国这块\"蛋糕\"能不断做大，但如果其他国家的\"蛋糕\"增长得更快一些，那也很棒。从长远来看，这对我们有好处。世界上有65 亿人口，3 亿美国人能持续享受越来越多的繁荣当然很好，但如果其他国家的人也能如此，那就更好了。我觉得如果他们能从美国的制度中学到东西，学会如何激发本国公民的潜力，生产出更多本国公民和我们都需要的商品与服务，那再好不过了。我认为，生活在一个周围国家，尤其是那些拥有核弹的国家，生活水平也在不断提高的世界里，会更加安全。",[19,464,465],{},"罗斯：看看如今的中国和一些亚洲国家，它们持有大量美国债务。在当前经济形势下，你对此有多担忧？它们会因此对美国失去信心吗？这会给美国带来大麻烦吗？",[19,467,468],{},"巴菲特：有人以0.05%的收益率购买美国国债。美国每天消费的商品和服务比生产的多出约20 亿美元。换句话说，世界其他国家每天向美国净出口约20 亿美元的商品。我们必须有所回报，所以就给他们国债。要是他们把国债都藏在床垫下倒还好，但他们得用这些钱买东西。有时，他们会购买美国国债；有时，他们会设立主权财富基金。他们有很多选择，甚至可以收购美国公司。只要美国的消费持续高于生产，每天用国家资产进行交换，其他国家就会持有美国资产。另一方面，他们也无法完全摆脱美国资产。只要他们继续向美国出售商品，每天持有的美国资产就会增加约20 亿美元。",[19,470,471],{},"罗斯：我们每天要借20 亿美元？",[19,473,474],{},"巴菲特：是的，而他们也想把商品卖给我们。",[19,476,477],{},"罗斯：你认为这不好，你觉得不断扩大的经常账户赤字是个问题。",[19,479,480],{},"巴菲特：我确实这么认为。",[19,482,483],{},"罗斯：这反映出美国的消费观念，而非储蓄观念。但这种情况要如何改变呢？",[19,485,486],{},"巴菲特：几年前，我提出过一个复杂的计划，其实我自己也不太满意，但总比维持现状要好。美国的出口表现其实还不错，目前出口额约占国内生产总值的12%，多年前国内生产总值较低时，这一比例仅为5%。世界其他国家很喜欢美国的产品，只是我们购买的外国产品太多了。我觉得这个问题需要解决，但目前它并非最紧迫的问题。美国一直用国家资产来支撑过度消费，长期来看，这不是好事。不过，美国的生产能力增长强劲，即便如此，我们的生活水平仍会提高，只是如果没有这种过度消费，我们会过得更好。",[19,488,489],{},"罗斯：这一切会对美元价格产生什么影响？",[19,491,492,493,496],{},"巴菲特：美元可能会面临很大压力。",[62,494,495],{},"通货膨胀很可能是当前一系列事件的后果","。实际上，我们在一定程度上是在未来的通货膨胀和经济复苏之间做选择。为应对当前局势采取的措施，很可能会导致未来通货膨胀加剧。",[19,498,499],{},"罗斯：你支持的奥巴马参议员提出了另一项经济刺激计划。在当前情况下，这有必要吗？",[19,501,502,503,506],{},"巴菲特：我认为目前最关键的是理顺信贷市场。我们可能还需要其他刺激措施。如果要实施，应该向中低收入人群倾斜。说实话，",[62,504,505],{},"我的纳税税率现在处于一生中最低水平，这很不合理","。看看《福布斯》富豪400 强榜单，算上薪资税，我们的平均税率比办公室里的秘书还要低。所以我觉得像我这样的人应该多缴税，而其他美国人应该少缴税。奥巴马提到的95%的美国人都应受益，甚至可以涵盖更多人。经济刺激计划应该真正惠及民众。美国有2400 万户家庭，占美国家庭总数的五分之一，这些家庭每年收入在2.1 万美元及以下，平均每户约有3-4 人，可能实际是2.5 人左右。查理，想象一下，一年靠2.1 万美元或2.2 万美元生活是什么样的。美国20%的人口都是如此。他们无需为我这样的人操心。应该增强这些人的购买力，给每人发放1000 美元，他们肯定会花掉这笔钱，而且他们确实需要这笔钱。这些钱在一定程度上应该由像我这样的人来出。",[19,508,509],{},"罗斯：那资本利得税呢？",[19,511,218,512,515],{},[62,513,514],{},"现在资本利得税税率是15%","。我坐在办公室里，通过资本利得赚了很多钱，只缴纳15%的税，而且无需缴纳薪资税。但来清理垃圾桶的女工，仅薪资税就要缴纳15.3%左右。我的税收负担太轻了。",[19,517,518],{},"罗斯：所以你认为资本利得税税率应该提高到18%、20%、25%或30%吗？",[19,520,218,521,524],{},[62,522,523],{},"我觉得投资收益的税率远低于劳动所得的税率，这很不合理","。美国政府每年支出约3.1 万亿美元，但税收收入只有约2.6 万亿美元。政府总得从某些人那里获得收入，那应该向谁征税呢？是向你我这样的人，还是向送我来这里的出租车司机？总得有人承担税负。每个人都不想自己多缴税，我也一样。但如果希望政府提供民众所需的服务，就必须有人为此买单。在过去六到八年里，像我这样的人税负越来越轻。",[19,526,527,530],{},[62,528,529],{},"大家总说最富有的1%人群缴纳了多少所得税，但所得税收入是1.3 万亿美元，其中薪资税却超过9000 亿美元","。这9000 亿美元不是我缴纳的，我只在最初的10 万美元收入里缴纳薪资税。这些钱是我办公室里的员工缴纳的。但在讨论1%人群的纳税情况时，没人提及薪资税。大家总说我这样的人有多\"痛苦\"，因为1%的富人缴纳了所得税总额的25%。但这不是个人纳税总额的25%，只是所得税的25%。薪资税占联邦政府财政收入的三分之一以上，资本利得和股息都不用缴纳薪资税，这些税负都落在了清理垃圾桶的女工身上。",[19,532,533],{},"罗斯：你提到了通货膨胀的可能性，那你对利率有什么看法？美联储在利率方面应该怎么做？",[19,535,536],{},"巴菲特：目前，我觉得可以先把利率问题放一放，等经济开始复苏再考虑。不过这很有意思，我们现在采取的措施会带来通货膨胀的后果，但目前利率，包括长期利率，都处于很低的水平。",[19,538,539],{},"罗斯：今天我们进行这场对话时，参议院今晚将进行投票，众议院可能也会投票。和我交流过的人都认为法案会通过。不管是因为对计划进行了调整，还是上次投票失败让人们意识到不采取行动的危险，总之人们改变了想法。那么，我们如何衡量这个计划是否有效呢？",[19,541,542],{},"巴菲特：这很难判断，因为经济在一段时间内还会继续恶化。如果法案不通过，经济可能会急剧下滑，但如果通过了，人们也无法立刻看到成效。这就像抢救一个倒下的人，你不能指望他马上跳起来。所以对于立法者来说，这很难。他们投票通过这项支出计划，人们却会说：\"你们花了这么多钱，却什么都没改变，钱都白花了，你们什么都没为我做。\"他们会面临这些质疑，这确实很棘手。真正需要的是有领导力的人，他们要清楚整个局势，并能向民众解释清楚。",[19,544,545],{},"罗斯：但这种能解释清楚局势的领导力似乎一直缺失，不是吗？",[19,547,548],{},"巴菲特：确实如此。",[19,550,551],{},"罗斯：这就是你来到这里，我想和你进行这场交流的原因，因为一些信息没有传达给民众。",[19,553,554],{},"巴菲特：当美国总统早上8 点出来讲话，而他所在的政党在众议院以2 比1 的票数反对他时，就说明信息没有有效传达。这需要真正的领导力。富兰克林·罗斯福上台时，并没有大量印钞(或许有少量印钞)，他也不是世界上最厉害的经济学教授，但他恢复了民众的信心。他们做了很多努力，而这正是当时所需要的，需要有人推动经济复苏。这花了很长时间，1933 年和1934 年世界并没有立刻发生改变，但他们建立了联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)。",[19,556,557],{},"我认为FDIC 公司是美国经济的伟大创举之一。",[19,559,560],{},"罗斯：在这次的法案里，他们也对FDIC 公司的相关规定进行了调整，对吧？",[19,562,563],{},"巴菲特：是的，他们的方向是正确的。",[19,565,566,567,570],{},"罗斯：罗斯福还说过：",[62,568,569],{},"我们唯一恐惧的就是恐惧本身","。显然，现在美国民众充满了恐惧。在过去三周，或者说过去一个月里发生的所有事情中，你什么时候最担心？有没有某个时刻让你觉得：天哪，我从没想到会发展到这种地步？",[19,572,573],{},"巴菲特：从某种程度上说，我并不太担心，因为我对美国有信心。我知道美国的体制运转良好，前提是它没有陷入困境。我也相信国会会做出正确的决策。当看到众议院上次投票否决法案时，我并不害怕，因为我觉得最终还是会有法案通过。但我们确实正处于非常艰难的时期。我从未想过有一天美国国际集团的支票会无法兑现。",[19,575,576],{},"罗斯：如果AIG 集团倒闭会怎样？",[19,578,579],{},"巴菲特：查理，所有人都会受到影响，无一幸免。",[19,581,582],{},"罗斯：当时为什么会有人质疑是否要救助美国国际集团呢？",[19,584,585],{},"巴菲特：我想那些了解情况的人，可能希望私营部门来救助。换做是我，如果我是财政部长或美联储主席，我也会先吓唬一下私营部门，告诉他们：你们最好把它救下来，否则你们也会跟着遭殃。你们自己想办法。我会尽可能等私营部门出手。如果他们不救，我再介入。",[19,587,588],{},"罗斯：在这次危机中，财政部长有没有这么做，比如说\"你们最好救它，不然大家都得完蛋。赶紧拿出钱来\"？",[19,590,591],{},"巴菲特：他们确实希望私营部门介入。私营部门也尝试过，但当他们看到问题的严重性后就退缩了。那个周末，有人以为自己能解决问题，但问题却越来越严重。突然之间，大家发现200 亿美元不够，300 亿美元也不够，400 亿美元还是不够。问题严重到短时间内没人能解决。",[19,593,594],{},"罗斯：是政府没有足够的资金吗？",[19,596,597],{},"巴菲特：情况很复杂。**AIG 集团有一个金融产品部门，除了知道它曾是盈利大户，没人真正了解它。在那里可以操控盈利数据，做各种违规操作。我敢说，就连公司的高层管理人员都搞不清楚状况。**1988 年我收购了GenRe 通用再保险公司，它也有类似但规模小得多的业务，有2.3 万份合约。我当时就决定必须摆脱这项业务，在市场环境还不错的情况下，这花了我4 亿多美元清算该业务。但AIG 集团面临的情况可比这糟糕多了。",[19,599,600],{},"罗斯：如果AIG 集团试图清算衍生品业务会怎样？",[19,602,603],{},"巴菲特：没有足够的私营资本来接手。",[19,605,606],{},"罗斯：连伯克希尔也不行吗？",[19,608,609],{},"巴菲特：伯克希尔也无能为力。如果我觉得投入50 亿或100 亿美元能解决问题，我肯定会出手。",[19,611,612],{},"罗斯：100 亿美元我们还能承受，但850 亿美元就超出能力范围了。",[19,614,615],{},"巴菲特：美联储对救助AIG 集团的方案设计得非常精妙。他们的做法很可能让政府收回资金，甚至还有盈",[19,617,618],{},"利。政府获得了80%的股权，谈判条件也很苛刻。我都想聘请负责这笔交易的人，他肯定适合在伯克希尔工作。",[19,620,621],{},"罗斯：很多人拿你对高盛和通用电气的投资说事。",[19,623,624],{},"罗斯：财长蒂姆·盖特纳Tim Geithner 在应对金融危机这件事上做得更好。",[19,626,627],{},"罗斯：我们的对话接近尾声了。你一直在提醒我们注意一些问题。从这次对话中我也了解到，这个救助计划至关重要，否则我们将陷入极其困难的境地。每拖延一周不采取行动，情况就会变得更糟，甚至可能无法挽回。",[19,629,218,630],{},[62,631,632],{},"没错。俗语说\"一盎司的预防胜过一磅的治疗\"，但我觉得这还不够。如果一磅的治疗再推迟6 个月，之后可能就需要一吨的治疗了。不采取行动是不明智的。",[19,634,635],{},"不过，这个计划不会立刻让经济形势大幅好转，人们必须明白这一点。失业率会继续上升，很多企业的收益会很差。会有更多人失去工作。查理，如果失业率最终稳定在7%，而不是9%，那就意味着少了300 万人失业。",[19,637,638],{},"在我看来，如果决策失误，这300 万人就会不必要地失业。我从未失业过，但也没有一直满负荷工作过。想想那些背着房贷、要养育孩子的人失业后会怎样。我父亲在1930 年代初就经历过失业。我们不能再让300 万人不必要地陷入这种困境。但我也知道，从现在的情况来看，失业率肯定会上升。我不想让观众误以为国会有什么神奇的办法能立刻解决问题。他们还会听到更多坏消息。但如果实施这个计划，我们就是在做正确的事。美国的经济体系最终会恢复正常运转，我们有很好的经济体系。",[19,640,641],{},"罗斯：最后我们来谈谈这个问题。除了应对当前的紧急情况，明年1 月之后，我们是否需要对经济体系进行改革？大家都在讨论监管问题，寻找合适的平衡点。也在讨论政府是否应该更多地介入经济，重新审视里根总统时期的政策理念。",[19,643,218,644,647],{},[62,645,646],{},"等经济这个\"运动员\"恢复元气后，我们可以建议他调整一下饮食、多锻炼","。我们可以做很多类似的事情。如果我有好的想法，或者自认为不错的想法，我很乐意分享。不过，经济体系可能会自行调整一些方面。民主制度的特点就是，当人们对某些事情深恶痛绝时，就会采取各种措施防止类似情况再次发生。所以我们可能会采取一些不太合理的方式来解决问题，但这就是国会和顾问们的职责所在。我完全支持让最有智慧的人来研究这些问题，虽然可能无法做到尽善尽美，但也许最终我们的经济体系会变得更好。一直以来，我们的经济体系都很不错。只是当房地产市场疯狂时，一系列连锁反应就开始了，多米诺骨牌纷纷倒下。",[19,649,650],{},"罗斯：感谢你前来参加节目。",[19,652,653],{},"巴菲特：谢谢你，查理。我很享受这次交流。",[19,655,656],{},"罗斯：很高兴见到你，沃伦。我们在圣地亚哥进行了这场对话。感谢KPBS 的工作人员。这次对话探讨了我们共同面临的危机，也聆听了很多人都渴望听到其见解的巴菲特的看法。很高兴能与他交流。感谢大家收看。",[658,659],"hr",{},{"title":661,"searchDepth":662,"depth":662,"links":663},"",2,[664],{"id":16,"depth":662,"text":17},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特接受查理·罗斯专访，解析2008年经济危机根源，强调信贷危机、贝尔斯登事件与系统性风险的关联性。","md",{},true,79,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":5,"description":667},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji","YyCgLn1HBuh234qZpPAwszTOuOSqkaZOSGIT7qcr_M8","buffett",[680,685,688,692,695,698,701,705,708,711,715,718,721,725,728,731,735,738,741,745,748,751,755,758,761,765,768,771,775,778,781,785,788,791,795,798,801,805,808,811,815,818,821,825,828,831,835,838,841,845,848,851,855,858,861,865,868,871,875,878,881,885,888,891,895,898,901,905,908,911,915,918,921,925,928,931,935,938,941,945,948,951,955,958,961,965,968,971,975,978,981,985,988,991,995,998,1001,1005,1008,1011,1015,1018,1022,1025,1029,1032,1036,1039,1043,1046,1050,1053,1057,1060,1064,1067,1071,1074,1078,1081,1085,1088,1092,1095,1099,1102,1106,1109,1113,1116,1120,1123,1127,1130,1134,1137,1141,1144,1148,1151,1155,1158,1162,1165,1169,1172,1176,1179,1183,1186,1190,1193,1197,1200,1204,1207,1211,1214,1218,1221,1225,1228,1232,1235,1239,1242,1246,1249,1253,1256,1260,1263,1267,1270,1274,1277,1281,1284,1288,1291,1295,1298,1302,1305,1309,1312,1316,1319,1323,1326,1329,1330,1334,1337,1341,1344,1348,1351,1355,1358,1362,1365,1369,1372,1376,1379,1383,1386,1390,1393,1397,1400,1404,1407,1411,1414,1418,1421,1425,1428,1432,1435,1439,1442,1446,1449,1453,1456,1460,1463,1467,1470,1474,1477,1481,1485,1489,1493,1497,1501,1505,1509,1513,1517,1521,1525,1529,1533,1537,1541,1545,1549,1553,1557,1561,1565,1569,1573,1577,1581,1585,1589,1593,1597,1601,1605,1609,1613,1617,1621,1625,1629,1633,1637,1641,1645,1649,1653,1657,1661,1665,1669,1673,1677],{"title":681,"slug":682,"category":683,"order":684},"1956 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巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-10yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",36,{"title":1030,"slug":1031,"category":665,"order":1028},"巴菲特：2001年保险业的FDIC","ba-fei-te-2001nian-bao-xian-ye-de-fdic",{"title":1033,"slug":1034,"category":683,"order":1035},"1969年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",37,{"title":1037,"slug":1038,"category":665,"order":1035},"巴菲特：2001年对话内大商学院","ba-fei-te-2001nian-dui-hua-nei-da-shang-xue-yuan",{"title":1040,"slug":1041,"category":683,"order":1042},"1969年12月26日 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-12yue-26ri-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",38,{"title":1044,"slug":1045,"category":665,"order":1042},"巴菲特：2001年巴菲特谈股市","ba-fei-te-2001nian-ba-fei-te-tan-gu-shi",{"title":1047,"slug":1048,"category":683,"order":1049},"1969年5月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1969nian-5yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",39,{"title":1051,"slug":1052,"category":665,"order":1049},"巴菲特：2001年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2001nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1054,"slug":1055,"category":683,"order":1056},"1970 巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1058,"slug":1059,"category":665,"order":1056},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1061,"slug":1062,"category":683,"order":1063},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1065,"slug":1066,"category":665,"order":1063},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1068,"slug":1069,"category":683,"order":1070},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1072,"slug":1073,"category":665,"order":1070},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1075,"slug":1076,"category":683,"order":1077},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1079,"slug":1080,"category":665,"order":1077},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1082,"slug":1083,"category":683,"order":1084},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1086,"slug":1087,"category":665,"order":1084},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1089,"slug":1090,"category":683,"order":1091},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1093,"slug":1094,"category":665,"order":1091},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1096,"slug":1097,"category":683,"order":1098},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1100,"slug":1101,"category":665,"order":1098},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1103,"slug":1104,"category":683,"order":1105},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1107,"slug":1108,"category":665,"order":1105},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1110,"slug":1111,"category":683,"order":1112},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1114,"slug":1115,"category":665,"order":1112},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1117,"slug":1118,"category":683,"order":1119},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1121,"slug":1122,"category":665,"order":1119},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1124,"slug":1125,"category":683,"order":1126},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1128,"slug":1129,"category":665,"order":1126},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1131,"slug":1132,"category":683,"order":1133},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1135,"slug":1136,"category":665,"order":1133},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1138,"slug":1139,"category":683,"order":1140},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1142,"slug":1143,"category":665,"order":1140},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1145,"slug":1146,"category":683,"order":1147},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1149,"slug":1150,"category":665,"order":1147},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1152,"slug":1153,"category":683,"order":1154},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1156,"slug":1157,"category":665,"order":1154},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1159,"slug":1160,"category":683,"order":1161},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1163,"slug":1164,"category":665,"order":1161},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1166,"slug":1167,"category":683,"order":1168},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1170,"slug":1171,"category":665,"order":1168},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1173,"slug":1174,"category":683,"order":1175},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1177,"slug":1178,"category":665,"order":1175},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1180,"slug":1181,"category":683,"order":1182},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1184,"slug":1185,"category":665,"order":1182},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1187,"slug":1188,"category":683,"order":1189},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1191,"slug":1192,"category":665,"order":1189},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1194,"slug":1195,"category":683,"order":1196},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1198,"slug":1199,"category":665,"order":1196},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1201,"slug":1202,"category":683,"order":1203},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1205,"slug":1206,"category":665,"order":1203},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1208,"slug":1209,"category":683,"order":1210},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1212,"slug":1213,"category":665,"order":1210},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1215,"slug":1216,"category":683,"order":1217},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1219,"slug":1220,"category":665,"order":1217},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1222,"slug":1223,"category":683,"order":1224},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1226,"slug":1227,"category":665,"order":1224},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1229,"slug":1230,"category":683,"order":1231},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1233,"slug":1234,"category":665,"order":1231},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1236,"slug":1237,"category":683,"order":1238},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1240,"slug":1241,"category":665,"order":1238},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1243,"slug":1244,"category":683,"order":1245},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1247,"slug":1248,"category":665,"order":1245},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1250,"slug":1251,"category":683,"order":1252},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1254,"slug":1255,"category":665,"order":1252},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1257,"slug":1258,"category":683,"order":1259},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1261,"slug":1262,"category":665,"order":1259},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1264,"slug":1265,"category":683,"order":1266},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1268,"slug":1269,"category":665,"order":1266},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1271,"slug":1272,"category":683,"order":1273},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1275,"slug":1276,"category":665,"order":1273},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1278,"slug":1279,"category":683,"order":1280},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1282,"slug":1283,"category":665,"order":1280},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1285,"slug":1286,"category":683,"order":1287},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1289,"slug":1290,"category":665,"order":1287},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1292,"slug":1293,"category":683,"order":1294},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1296,"slug":1297,"category":665,"order":1294},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1299,"slug":1300,"category":683,"order":1301},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1303,"slug":1304,"category":665,"order":1301},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1306,"slug":1307,"category":683,"order":1308},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1310,"slug":1311,"category":665,"order":1308},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1313,"slug":1314,"category":683,"order":1315},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1317,"slug":1318,"category":665,"order":1315},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1320,"slug":1321,"category":683,"order":1322},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1324,"slug":1325,"category":665,"order":1322},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1327,"slug":1328,"category":683,"order":671},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",{"title":5,"slug":675,"category":665,"order":671},{"title":1331,"slug":1332,"category":683,"order":1333},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1335,"slug":1336,"category":665,"order":1333},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1338,"slug":1339,"category":683,"order":1340},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1342,"slug":1343,"category":665,"order":1340},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 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