[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1774},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":238,"library-sidebar-dao":1240,"library-sidebar-models":1542},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":224,"date":225,"description":226,"extension":227,"meta":228,"navigation":229,"order":230,"path":231,"seo":232,"seoDescription":226,"seoTitle":233,"slug":234,"stem":235,"__hash__":236,"_collection":237},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji.md","巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":219},"minimark",[9,13,17,21,24,27,30,33,36,39,42,45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66,69,72,75,78,81,84,87,90,93,96,99,102,105,108,111,114,117,120,123,126,129,132,135,138,141,144,147,150,153,156,159,162,165,168,171,174,177,180,183,186,189,192,195,198,201,204,207,210,213,216],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"巴菲特巴菲特估值逻辑",[14,15,16],"h2",{"id":16},"巴菲特估值逻辑",[18,19,20],"p",{},"1，内在价值很简单，就是未来现金流的折现值之和",[18,22,23],{},"股东：关于内在价值，你说了很多，也写了很多，你还说你会提供股东们所需的信息以便他们能自己计算出伯克希尔的内在价值。你能不能对此展开谈谈。在计算内在价值方面，在你年报中使用的工具或者你考察的其他工具中，你认为最重要的工具是什么？第二个问题，在使用这些工具的时候，你采取的规则、原理或者标准是什么？最后，在评估公司价值的时候，使用工具以及应用原理的这个过程如何与你刚才所说的筛选标准相结合？",[18,25,26],{},"巴菲特：如果我们能够洞悉任何企业的未来，比方说，100 年或者企业灭亡时在企业和股东之间的现金流入以及现金流出，然后以适当的利率，这个我等会再谈，将其折现到现在，我们就会得到内在价值的数值。",[18,28,29],{},"这和计算一张贴着许多息票、100 年后到期的债券的价值很相似。如果你知道息票有多少，就能通过以适当的风险利率折现来计算它的内在价值，或者你可以将息票率为5%的债券与息票率为7%的债券进行比较。每张债券的价值都不一样，因为它们的息票率不同。其实企业也有息票，这些息票未来会发生变化，只不过没有印在股票上。因此，企业未来的息票要由投资者自己来估计。内在价值完全与未来的现金流有关，投资者的工作就是弄明白未来的现金流是什么样的。",[18,31,32],{},"就像我们以前所说的那样，像高科技企业类公司，我们一点都不知道其未来的息票是多少。但是当我们找到一家我们认为自己相当懂的企业时，我们就会努力考察它的未来，并计算它未来的息票是多少。事实上，我们可以说是试图现在就把这些未来的息票打印出来，这就是我们判断一家企业10 年或20 年后的价值所采取的方法。",[18,34,35],{},"当我们于1972 年买下喜诗糖果的时候，我们当时不得不在以下方面得出结论：我们能否弄明白经营的竞争环境、喜诗糖果的优势以及劣势、今后10 年、20 年或30 年这家企业的情况会如何。如果你试着评估内在价值，就会发现全都与现金流有关。当前在任何一个投资对象中投入现金的唯一原因是你期待将来可以取出现金，不是通过将投资卖给他人(因为这是一种十足的狗咬狗游戏who beats who)，而是通过你投资的资产的产出。购买一座农场是这样，买一套公寓也是这样，购买一家企业同样如此。",[18,37,38],{},"你提到了我们的筛选标准，我们不知道有些企业10 年或20 年后价值几何，甚至连一个有把握的猜测也提供不了。显然，我们不认为我们对企业价值的估算能够精确到小数点后第二位或者第三位。不过，对于某些企业，我们还是十拿九稳的。我们设计筛选标准的目的就是为了确保我们投对企业(确定性)。",[18,40,41],{},"我们基本上使用无风险的、期限较长的政府债券的利率作为折现率。投资就是今天投出去钱，为了在将来收获更多，不是通过将投资的资产卖给其他人，而是通过资产自身的产出。如果你是投资者，就会关注你所投资的资产(对我们而言是企业)未来的表现。如果你是投机者，主要关注的是资产的价格未来将会怎样，而不管资产自身的未来表现。投机不是我们的游戏。我们知道，如果我们对企业的判断是正确的，将会赚很多钱，如果判断是错误的，就不会有任何希望——我们不指望能赚钱。",[18,43,44],{},"说到评估伯克希尔的价值，我们试着告诉你们尽可能多的关于我们企业的信息，所有关键的因素。我们在年报中介绍我们企业所使用的方法和指标，与查理和我在考察其他企业时所用的一样。所以，如果查理和伯克希尔一点关系都没有，但他在看了我们的财报之后，得到的内在价值肯定和他在伯克希尔待了这么多年得出的结果差不多一样，至少我是这么认为的。在评估伯克希尔内在价值方面，该有的信息都有了，我们给你们的信息也是我们想从你们那里得到的信息(假如我们的位置调换的话)。",[18,46,47],{},"像可口可乐、吉列以及迪士尼这样的企业，你所需的信息在年报中也是应有尽有。你需要了解它们的业务，在日常生活中就可以获得这方面的知识。这一点在一些高科技企业中是做不到的，但在有些企业中你可以做到。",[18,49,50],{},"然后，你就可以坐下来，描绘这些企业的未来蓝图。",[18,52,53],{},"芒格：我认为，投资筛选标准是机会成本，是一个简单的理念，如果你已经有了一个可以大笔下注的投资机会，且与你看到的其他98%的机会相比，你更喜欢这个机会，你就可以把其余98%的机会剔掉，因为你已经知道更好的机会了。因此，有很多机会可供投资的人获得的投资通常比机会较少的人好，使用机会成本这个理念来筛选可以做出更好的投资决策。持有这种态度，你会得到一个集中度非常高的投资组合——这个我们不介意。",[18,55,56],{},"我们的做法如此之简单，可是效仿我们的人却很少，我不明白这是为什么。伯克希尔的股东倒是普遍效法我们，他们全都学会了这一点。但它不是投资管理行业的标准做法，甚至连一些伟大的大学和聪明的机构也不这么做。这就引出了一个非常有趣的问题：如果我们是对的，为什么大错特错的著名企业是如此之多？",[18,58,59],{},"巴菲特：关于这个问题，有几个可能的答案。(笑)",[18,61,62],{},"芒格：是的。",[18,64,65],{},"巴菲特：态度很重要，我的意思是，如果有人向我们推销一家企业，我们脑子里想到的第一件事是：\"我们更愿意买入这家企业，还是更愿意增持可口可乐？我们更愿意购买这家企业，还是更愿意增持吉列？\"不拿这些未知的新企业与你非常确定的企业进行比较是疯狂的，你能找到的、未来前景和可口可乐一样确定的公司极少。因此，我们想购买那些确定程度接近可口可乐的公司，然后，我们想弄清楚购买新企业是否比增持我们已经持有的公司更好。如果每一个管理者都这样做，在收购他们从来没有听说过不相关行业的企业之前，就问自己：\"收购这家企业会比回购我们自己的股票更好吗？比购买可口可乐的股票更好吗？\"如果他们这样做的话，兼并收购交易将会少很多很多。但不知是什么原因，他们似乎没有这么做。我们会这么做，会将新的企业与我们认为我们能够得到的、近乎完美的企业进行对比。",[18,67,68],{},"芒格：过去，内在价值这个概念使用起来要比现在容易得多，因为有许多许多股票的售价在清算价值的50%以下。的确，在伯克希尔的历史上，我们购买的有些证券的价格只有清算价值的20%。过去，本·格雷厄姆的追随者只要用盖革计数器对美国的公司进行计算，就能找到一些让他们心动的证券。只要你对企业的整体市场价格稍微懂一点，就能很容易地发现你的买入价相对于内在价值打了很大的折扣。不管管理团队有多糟糕，如果你的买价只有资产价值的50%甚或30%，你依然可以赚很多钱。但是随着投资者逐渐聪明起来，且股票的表现如此之好，股价通常会越来越高，以前那种投资方法越来越难赚到钱了。如今为了找到价格相对于内在价值出现折扣的证券，这些简单的投资方法一般来说不管用了。",[18,70,71],{},"如果你从良好的普通教育中掌握了几个基本的思想，你就能很好地预测一些企业的未来表现。我在南加州大学商学院演讲中说的就是这个意思。换句话说，根据几个简单的基本因素来抽丝剥茧地进行分析，我们会发现可口可乐是一家很简单的公司。你必须要了解人类的行为。有一些基本的模型，这些模型很简单，比量子力学容易掌握多了。你必须得懂一些东西，要真的懂。",[18,73,74],{},"巴菲特：当查理说清算价值的时候，他的意思不是关掉企业清盘后得到的价值，而是其他人为了得到现金流愿意支付的价格。",[18,76,77],{},"芒格：对。",[18,79,80],{},"巴菲特：举例来说，你可以看看1974 年首府广播购买的一些电视台，这些电视台的价值是它们售价的好几",[18,82,83],{},"倍，这并不是因为你关闭电视台可以得到这么多价值，而是因为它们的收入流值这么多钱，这完全是因为股市一片低迷。就像我所说的那样，如果协商的话，你可以以几倍于股价的价格出售公司的资产，还免费获得了一支优秀的管理团队。",[18,85,86],{},"巴菲特：但投资和计算内在价值还有一个部分是，当你计算完一项资产的内在价值之后，计算结果告诉你\"不要买\"，这时你不能仅仅因为其他人认为这项资产的价格会上涨或者因为你的朋友最近轻松发了一笔横财等与此类似的理由而买入。你必须丢掉没有通过筛选的投资机会。最近能够赚钱的想法少之又少，你必须得做好准备，不碰任何你不懂的投资，我认为这是一个很大的障碍。",[18,88,89],{},"芒格：沃伦，如今投资变得更难了，你应该同意我的看法吧，对吗？",[18,91,92],{},"巴菲特：对。不过我也认为过去40 年来几乎任何时候，在这个舞台上，我们都可以说投资变得更难了。但如今投资更难赚钱，难得多了。",[18,94,95],{},"现在更难赚钱的部分原因是我们管理的资金量，如果我们管理的资金只有10 万美元，且我们真的需要钱，我们的回报前景将比现在好多了。道理很简单，如果我们管理的资金量较小，潜在的投资范围就大多了。",[18,97,98],{},"现在，我们考察的很多投资机会也受到了其他很多人的关注，而在以前，很多时候我们关注的机会，其他人几乎看都不看。不过过去也有过例外，当我们考察一些投资的时候，全世界对待这些投资就像疯了一样，这对我们来说肯定是一大帮助。",[18,100,101],{},"2，两个简单的筛选标准可以迅速排除掉98%的考察对象。",[18,103,104],{},"股东问：你能否详细谈谈在考察潜在的投资时，你们使用的筛选标准是什么？",[18,106,107],{},"芒格：这个问题我们已经说了很多了。就像我提到的那样，机会成本是生活中一个基本的筛选标准，如果你有两个疯狂追求你的求婚者，其中一个比另一个好千万倍，你就不用在另一个身上花费时间了(巴菲特大笑)。我们筛选投资机会时也是这么做的。我们使用的筛选标准是最基本的想法，它们是如此之简单，以至于人们不断问我们这些标准的背后有什么玄机。",[18,109,110],{},"巴菲特：我们使用的第一个筛选标准可能是：我们是否认为自己很懂这家摆在我们面前的企业？这一点我们能立即知道。如果这家企业通过了第一道筛选，接下来我们要问：这家企业是否具有可持续的竞争优势？这两个标准可以把绝大部分考察对象筛选掉。很多潜在的卖家肯定会认为查理和我非常武断，因为通常的情况是，对方第一句话刚讲到一半，我们就会说：\"谢谢你的来电，但我们对你的企业不感兴趣。\"他们觉得如果他们向我们详细解释他们的企业(我们一直都能收到这种信件)，我们就会看到他们企业的优点，或许就会买下来。不过，我们通常真的能通过前半句话就可以看出这家企业是否具有这两个因素。如果我们不懂这家企业，根本不会收购它。如果我们不懂，就无法判断它是否具有竞争优势。如果我们懂这家企业，我们可以得出结论——这家企业不具备竞争优势。所以，在98%的情况下，潜在的卖家只说半句话，我们就能结束谈话，我们的这种做法当然很成功。",[18,112,113],{},"另外，有时候，当我们和一些人就整体收购企业交谈的时候，我们通过与我们打交道的人来判断这起交易能不能做成。如果卖家将这家企业拍卖出售(参考KKR 并购RJR)，我们就没有谈的兴趣，这样的话，交易不可能做成。如果有人想通过拍卖出售他们的企业，不管拍卖进展得如何，他们都想坐下来和我们就一切条款重新谈判。",[18,115,116],{},"因此，在我们购买这家企业之前，要谈好几次。你可以看到有些将要发生的事情。另一方面，我们和与我们有关系的人有非常美妙的合作经历，他们给我们的交易绝大多数情况下都能做成。我们可不想整天听人讲故事，也不看经纪人报告等任何类似的文件。我们还想用自己的时间来干些别的事情呢。查理？",[18,118,119],{},"芒格：没错。沃伦暗示的另外一个筛选标准是君子(quality person 高素质的绅士)这个概念。当然，大多数人对君子的界定是和他们相近的人。但是世界上有很多君子，也有很多小人，这两类人经常都有一些迹象，就像旗帜一样，尤其是小人。一般来说，我们得避开这些人。避开和小人打交道可以让你免遭大不幸，和君子结识可以让你获得巨大的幸福。",[18,121,122],{},"你只要环顾四周就可以发现，在这个房间里有很多君子，他们创造了一些伟大的企业。他们的客户可以信任他们，他们的员工可以信任他们，就连遇到问题，都可以信任他们会正确对待并予以合理解决。这就是我们想打交道的人(我们要寻找的人：能被所有人信任的人)。这些人信守诺言。",[18,124,125],{},"最近我和一家这样的公司打过交道，某些产品上印有这家公司的品牌，同一领域里有人发明了一个更好的产品。于是，他们就把他们的品牌从这些产品上拿了下来，因为如果他们的产品不是最好的，他们就不想让自己的品牌出现在产品上。这样想的人通常在商业上都做得非常成功，君子的大旗也会在他们的头上飞扬……另一方面，如果某人身上闪现的是\"混蛋\"标志，要避开他们。",[18,127,128],{},"巴菲特：小人的胸前好像有一个标志，写的是\"混蛋、混蛋、混蛋\"，你要避开这些人，你真的以为你买下他们的企业，他们就不再是混蛋了吗？永远不要期望和坏人做成一笔好生意。",[18,130,131],{},"3，投资的一个美妙之处是：你不必每天都从头开始，评估企业价值的一个优点是它是累积性的。",[18,133,134],{},"股东问：信息对我们中的许多人来说都是一个障碍，在应对信息泛滥这个问题上，你是否使用了组织模型？",[18,136,137],{},"利用这个模型你可以聪明合理地组织信息，从而得到最大的收获，同时不会分散你的注意力。你如何持续追踪所有的企业？",[18,139,140],{},"巴菲特：我们并不持续追踪所有的企业。不过，从某种程度上说，评估企业价值(特别是大企业)的美妙之处是它是累积性的，如果你40 多年前就开始评估各大企业的价值，现在你就积累了许多企业的估值知识。开始的时候你不需要掌握很多行业的估值知识，可以从了解一些重要的行业开始入手，总共大概也就只有75 个重要行业，你可以逐步了解这些行业是如何运作的。你不必每天都重新开始，不用咨询电脑，你什么都不用咨询。所以，评估企业价值可以享受知识日积月累的优势。",[18,142,143],{},"你掌握的企业估值知识会随着时间的进展而一点一点地增加。为什么我们决定在1988 年购买可口可乐的股",[18,145,146],{},"票？这可能是知识一点点积累的结果。经过几十年的积累，这些点滴的知识汇成了大河，让我们能看到可口可乐的价值。可口可乐是一家伟大的企业，这也是我们为什么喜欢不会发生太大变化的企业的原因之一，因为对这些企业而言，过去的历史是有用的。查理？",[18,148,149],{},"芒格：我没什么可补充的。",[18,151,152],{},"4，安全边际非常重要，但最重要的是待在你的能力圈之内",[18,154,155],{},"股东问：在你1992 年的致股东信中，你写道，你努力以两种方法来解决未来盈利的问题：通过坚持投资你懂的企业以及通过建立安全边际。你说这两者同等重要。但是，如果不能兼得，你觉得哪一个更重要？",[18,157,158],{},"巴菲特：我想，有一个更加权威的人曾经告诉过我们哪一个更重要。它们是联系在一起的，如果你很懂一家企业，并且能洞察它的未来，你需要的安全边际显然就很小。相反，一家公司越脆弱或者它变化的可能性越大，如果你依然想投资这家企业，你需要的安全边际就越大。我记得在第一版的《证券分析》中，格雷厄姆使用JICASE 的例子告诉我们说，\"这家企业的价值在30 美元到110 美元之间。\"他说，\"这个结果听起来并不好。这个信息能给你带来什么好处呢？如果该公司的股价低于30 美元或者高于110 美元的话，这个信息或许还能给你带来一些好处。\"如果你驾驶着载有9,800 磅货物的卡车，通过一座载重量为1 万吨的桥，且这座桥距离地面只有6 英尺的话，你可能会觉得没事。但是，如果这座桥坐落在大峡谷之上，你可能就想得到大一些的安全边际，因此，你可能只会驾着4,000 磅重的货物通过这座桥。所以说，安全边际多大取决于潜在的风险。不过，我们现在获得的安全边际没有1973-1974 年期间那么大。",[18,160,161],{},"你要做的最重要的事情是弄懂你所投的企业。如果你懂得一家企业，且你投的企业在本质上不会发生意外的变化，你就能获得不错的回报。我们认为，我们投资的企业大多是这种类型。",[18,163,164],{},"相比从你自己的错误中汲取教训，最好从其他人的错误中学习。就像佩顿过去说过的那样：\"为国牺牲是一种荣誉，不过这种荣誉还是让别人获得吧。\"我们的方法其实就是试着间接学习。不过，我们重复犯过很多错误。我犯过的最大的错误或者说错误类型是，当我发现某企业是伟大的企业时，我不肯支付较高的价格，或者在它的股价涨得较高的时候，我没能继续买入。这一错误的代价是几十亿美元。我可能还会继续犯这种错。",[18,166,167],{},"当我遇到比尔·盖茨的时候，我没有购买微软的股票，对于像这样的事情，我一点也不在乎，因为这完全不在我的能力圈之内。但是当我发现了一家我懂的企业，且它的价格也很有吸引力的时候，如果我没有采取行动，这就完全是另外一回事了。遇到想都不用想的绝佳投资机会，你一定得抓住，如果没有，那就是疯了。错过能力圈外的投资机会是一回事，错过圈内的是另外一回事。",[18,169,170],{},"芒格：对。我想，大部分人遇到我称之为想都不用想的绝佳机会的几率都非常小，这些机会的吸引力如此明显，以至于投资它们肯定能赚钱。因为这些机会少之又少，并且几十年才出现一次，因此我认为，人们必须学会当这些稀有的机会出现的时候，要有勇气和智慧以重金下注这些机会。",[18,172,173],{},"巴菲特：没错。你一定得豪赌一把，如果你不这样做，就是疯了。当这些机会出现的时候，如果你投入的资金量很少，也是疯了。",[18,175,176],{},"5，无风险利率就是我们在比较不同的投资机会时所使用的基准",[18,178,179],{},"股东问：当你们预测一个潜在投资——一家公司的现金流的时候，为什么使用无风险国库券的当前利率作为折现率？你们为什么不用刚才查理说的机会成本的概念来选取折现率呢？比如你提到的美国公司股权收益率的历史均值12%，或者你的回报率目标15%，或者参考可口可乐的股权收益率。我想你肯定知道，使用不同的折现率将显著改变你评估的公司的价值。你们为什么使用无风险利率？",[18,181,182],{},"巴菲特：我们使用无风险利率仅仅是为了对不同的投资对象进行相互比较，换句话说，我们寻找的是最有吸引力的投资对象。为了计算投资对象的现值，我们都需要使用折现率，由于我们永远都能购买国库券，所以，国库券的利率就成了基准利率。这并不意味着我们想购买政府债券，这也不意味着，如果我们得到的最好的投资对象的现值表明，该投资每年的收益率只比国库券高0.5%，我们就会购买国库券。但是我们认为，这是一个合适的基准利率，我们只是使用这个利率来比较所有的投资机会——企业、油井、农场等等。",[18,184,185],{},"使用无风险利率作为折现率还与确定程度的高低有关，这是一个基准利率。在整个估值过程中，它相当于一个常数。查理？",[18,187,188],{},"芒格：是的。你想买期限多久的政府债券显然都可以买到，所以投资股票的一个机会成本就是将股票和债券进行对比，你可能会发现，美国有一半的公司股票，你要么不了解它们，要么很担心这些股票的情况或者极度不看好它们，以至于你宁可购买政府债券。因此，从机会成本这个角度看，这些股票就被这个筛选标准给排除了。",[18,190,191],{},"接下来你开始寻找那些你喜欢的股票，你对这些股票的喜欢程度远胜于政府债券，所以你会对这些股票逐一进行比较。如果你找到了一个你认为最好的投资机会——这个机会你很懂——你就有购买对象了。这个思考非常简单，除了最基本的经济学知识和博弈论之外，什么都用不到。估值的思维过程连小孩子都能想到。",[18,193,194],{},"6，机会成本很重要",[18,196,197],{},"股东：巴菲特先生，芒格先生，再次感谢你们每年都如此慷慨地与我们共度时光。我想接着来自澳大利亚和慕尼黑的先生关于估值的问题继续问。这位来自澳大利亚的先生问到安全边际，而您回答说，卓越的业务可能不需要那么大的安全边际。我的后续问题是，这是否表明，未来优质企业的市场回报率会更高？然后在来自慕尼黑现实的问题中，你引用了一个关于贴现现金流的农场例子，我很好奇你是如何得出你的贴现率的，以及你如何根据不同的业务调整贴现率。你可能想讨论一下可口可乐、强生或你过去投资的折现率？",[18,199,200],{},"巴菲特：是的。我们没有正式的折现率。每次我开始谈论这些东西的时候，查理都会提醒我，我从来没有准备过电子表格。但是，实际上，在我心里我很清楚。但我们显然希望获得比政府债券高得多的回报，也就现金产出相对于我们现在为企业付出的金额而言。我的意思是，我们需要一个基础的准绳，以及在此基础上，我们还想要多高的回报？如果政府债券利率是2%，我们不会去买一家在未来几年预期收益为3%或3.5%的企业。我们只是不想以这种方式投入资金。我们宁愿坐着等一会儿。如果他们是4.75%，你知道，随着时间的推移，我们希望得到什么？好吧，我们仍然想得到更多。",[18,202,203],{},"但我不会说，我们每天早上坐下来，我打电话给在洛杉矶的查理说，\"我们今天的最低预期收益率是多少？\"我们从来没有用过这个词。我们想要足够的回报率，这样我们就会感到很舒服，如果股票市场关闭了几年，或者如果利率再上升100 或200 个基点，我们仍然对我们买的东西感到满意。这听起来有点模糊，但这确实是模糊的。",[18,205,206],{},"查理？",[18,208,209],{},"芒格：是的。最低预期回报率的概念完全说得通，然而谈论最低预期回报率的人却犯了很多可怕的错误。仅仅因为你可以测量和猜测某个东西，并不意味着它就是你在这个混乱的世界中所处理的事情的控制变量。我不认为有什么单一的指标可以代替对大量的投资选择的思考。或者思考为什么一个比另一个更好，以及每一个的可能回报是什么，等等等等。",[18,211,212],{},"而最低预期回报率概念的问题是，在某种意义上它不如一个比较系统那样有效。这不是说我们没有最低预期回报率。换句话说，如果我有一些东西，我认为肯定会给我8%的回报，并且我可以买够所有我想要的，那么即使你有一个非常好的投资，而我认为它只会赚7%，那我不就不需要浪费5 分钟与你讨论这个投资机会。",[18,214,215],{},"所以这个机会成本的概念，在投资中很少被教授。他们在所有主要大学的大一新生经济学课程中教授它，但当你进入公司财务部门等部门时，机会成本的概念并不适合他们想要使用的那种数学知识，所以他们忽略了这个概念。但在现实世界中，你的机会成本就是你想要做出决定的依据。",[18,217,218],{},"巴菲特：是的。即使你有一些你非常熟悉的东西，并且非常确定能够获得8%的回报，那么实际上，如果有人告诉你有一个可能8.5%回报率的投资机会，那也不会吸引你。正如我提到的，我已经在19 家公司的董事会任职。我想说的是，在我看过很多的项目路演中，每一个都有内部回报率的计算，如果他们把它们都烧掉，董事会的情况会更好。我的意思是，有这么多的废话提出是因为，路演者基本上都知道什么是听众想要听到的，以及为了完成CEO 想做的事情董事会需要什么，你得到只会是废话数字。而且，你知道，我们可能也会得到毫无意义的数字。(笑) 芒格：让我给你举个例子。我有一位年轻的朋友，他向投资者出售私募合伙公司份额。而且他身处的是一个非常艰难的领域，很难获得像样的回报。我说，\"你告诉他们你的目标回报率是多少\"？他说，\"20%\"。我说，\"你是怎么选这个数字的\"？他说：\"如果我选择更低的数字，他们就不会给我钱\"。 (笑声) 巴菲特：我们认为世界上没有人能用大笔的钱赚到20%。我的意思是，任何人做出这样的承诺，基本上，我们都会立即把他筛选掉。让我感到惊讶的是，在某种意义上，大的投资者是多么容易上当受骗，比如养老基金等等，因为他们让人们来到他们身边，然后这些人向他们承诺\"圣杯\"。他们是如此的渴望，以至于他们愿意相信那些只是胡说八道的事情。",{"title":220,"searchDepth":221,"depth":221,"links":222},"",2,[223],{"id":16,"depth":221,"text":16},"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特详细阐述内在价值的计算方法：未来现金流的折现值之和，强调为股东提供足够信息以便他们能自己计算伯克希尔的内在价值。","md",{},true,149,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji",{"title":5,"description":226},"巴菲特：巴菲特估值逻辑｜巴菲特","ba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fba-fei-te-ba-fei-te-gu-zhi-luo-ji","tQncEOKRk6foZ95aRmuwJpeyfo5fkmwF8fdwZLYC8AQ","buffett",[239,244,247,251,254,257,260,264,267,270,274,277,280,284,287,290,294,297,300,304,307,310,314,317,320,324,327,330,334,337,340,344,347,350,354,357,360,364,367,370,374,377,380,384,387,390,394,397,400,404,407,410,414,417,420,424,427,430,434,437,440,444,447,450,454,457,460,464,467,470,474,477,480,484,487,490,494,497,500,504,507,510,514,517,520,524,527,530,534,537,540,544,547,550,554,557,560,564,567,570,574,577,581,584,588,591,595,598,602,605,609,612,616,619,623,626,630,633,637,640,644,647,651,654,658,661,665,668,672,675,679,682,686,689,693,696,700,703,707,710,714,717,721,724,728,731,735,738,742,745,749,752,756,759,763,766,770,773,777,780,784,787,791,794,798,801,805,808,812,815,819,822,826,829,833,836,840,843,847,850,854,857,861,864,868,871,875,878,882,885,889,892,896,899,903,906,910,913,917,920,924,927,931,934,938,941,945,948,952,955,959,962,966,969,973,976,980,983,987,990,994,997,1001,1004,1008,1011,1015,1018,1022,1025,1029,1032,1036,1039,1043,1047,1051,1055,1059,1063,1067,1071,1075,1079,1083,1087,1091,1095,1099,1103,1107,1111,1115,1119,1123,1127,1131,1135,1139,1143,1147,1151,1155,1159,1163,1167,1171,1175,1179,1183,1187,1191,1195,1199,1203,1207,1211,1215,1219,1223,1227,1231,1232,1236],{"title":240,"slug":241,"category":242,"order":243},"1956 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巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":645,"slug":646,"category":224,"order":643},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":648,"slug":649,"category":242,"order":650},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":652,"slug":653,"category":224,"order":650},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":655,"slug":656,"category":242,"order":657},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":659,"slug":660,"category":224,"order":657},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":662,"slug":663,"category":242,"order":664},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":666,"slug":667,"category":224,"order":664},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":669,"slug":670,"category":242,"order":671},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":673,"slug":674,"category":224,"order":671},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":676,"slug":677,"category":242,"order":678},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":680,"slug":681,"category":224,"order":678},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":683,"slug":684,"category":242,"order":685},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":687,"slug":688,"category":224,"order":685},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":690,"slug":691,"category":242,"order":692},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":694,"slug":695,"category":224,"order":692},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":697,"slug":698,"category":242,"order":699},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":701,"slug":702,"category":224,"order":699},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":704,"slug":705,"category":242,"order":706},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":708,"slug":709,"category":224,"order":706},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":711,"slug":712,"category":242,"order":713},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":715,"slug":716,"category":224,"order":713},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":718,"slug":719,"category":242,"order":720},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":722,"slug":723,"category":224,"order":720},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":725,"slug":726,"category":242,"order":727},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":729,"slug":730,"category":224,"order":727},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":732,"slug":733,"category":242,"order":734},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":736,"slug":737,"category":224,"order":734},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":739,"slug":740,"category":242,"order":741},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":743,"slug":744,"category":224,"order":741},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":746,"slug":747,"category":242,"order":748},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":750,"slug":751,"category":224,"order":748},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":753,"slug":754,"category":242,"order":755},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":757,"slug":758,"category":224,"order":755},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":760,"slug":761,"category":242,"order":762},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":764,"slug":765,"category":224,"order":762},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":767,"slug":768,"category":242,"order":769},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":771,"slug":772,"category":224,"order":769},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":774,"slug":775,"category":242,"order":776},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":778,"slug":779,"category":224,"order":776},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":781,"slug":782,"category":242,"order":783},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":785,"slug":786,"category":224,"order":783},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":788,"slug":789,"category":242,"order":790},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":792,"slug":793,"category":224,"order":790},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":795,"slug":796,"category":242,"order":797},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":799,"slug":800,"category":224,"order":797},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":802,"slug":803,"category":242,"order":804},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":806,"slug":807,"category":224,"order":804},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":809,"slug":810,"category":242,"order":811},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":813,"slug":814,"category":224,"order":811},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":816,"slug":817,"category":242,"order":818},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":820,"slug":821,"category":224,"order":818},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":823,"slug":824,"category":242,"order":825},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":827,"slug":828,"category":224,"order":825},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":830,"slug":831,"category":242,"order":832},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":834,"slug":835,"category":224,"order":832},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":837,"slug":838,"category":242,"order":839},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":841,"slug":842,"category":224,"order":839},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":844,"slug":845,"category":242,"order":846},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":848,"slug":849,"category":224,"order":846},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":851,"slug":852,"category":242,"order":853},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":855,"slug":856,"category":224,"order":853},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":858,"slug":859,"category":242,"order":860},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":862,"slug":863,"category":224,"order":860},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":865,"slug":866,"category":242,"order":867},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":869,"slug":870,"category":224,"order":867},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":872,"slug":873,"category":242,"order":874},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":876,"slug":877,"category":224,"order":874},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":879,"slug":880,"category":242,"order":881},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":883,"slug":884,"category":224,"order":881},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":886,"slug":887,"category":242,"order":888},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":890,"slug":891,"category":224,"order":888},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":893,"slug":894,"category":242,"order":895},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":897,"slug":898,"category":224,"order":895},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":900,"slug":901,"category":242,"order":902},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":904,"slug":905,"category":224,"order":902},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":907,"slug":908,"category":242,"order":909},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":911,"slug":912,"category":224,"order":909},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":914,"slug":915,"category":242,"order":916},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":918,"slug":919,"category":224,"order":916},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":921,"slug":922,"category":242,"order":923},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":925,"slug":926,"category":224,"order":923},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":928,"slug":929,"category":242,"order":930},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":932,"slug":933,"category":224,"order":930},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":935,"slug":936,"category":242,"order":937},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":939,"slug":940,"category":224,"order":937},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":942,"slug":943,"category":242,"order":944},"2014 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