[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2297},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":761,"library-sidebar-dao":1763,"library-sidebar-models":2065},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":747,"date":748,"description":749,"extension":750,"meta":751,"navigation":752,"order":753,"path":754,"seo":755,"seoDescription":749,"seoTitle":756,"slug":757,"stem":758,"__hash__":759,"_collection":760},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fbo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai.md","伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":743},"minimark",[9,13,17,20,23,26,29,32,35,38,41,44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68,72,75,78,81,84,87,90,93,100,103,106,113,116,123,126,129,136,142,145,148,151,154,157,160,163,166,169,172,175,178,181,188,191,197,200,203,206,209,212,215,218,225,232,238,249,252,259,266,269,272,275,278,281,284,287,290,304,307,313,316,319,336,339,343,346,349,355,358,361,364,371,374,377,380,383,386,389,392,395,402,408,414,417,420,423,426,433,443,446,449,452,459,465,472,475,485,492,495,498,501,504,507,510,513,518,521,524,527,530,534,537,540,543,546,549,552,555,558,561,564,567,570,573,576,579,582,585,588,591,594,597,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,624,627,630,633,636,639,642,647,652,657,662,667,670,673,676,679,686,689,692,695,698,701,704,707,710,713,716,719,722,725,728,731,734,737,740],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"伯克希尔50-周年过去现在和未来",[14,15,16],"p",{},"缘起",[14,18,19],{},"1964 年5 月6 日，当时一个叫做西伯利·斯坦顿(SeaburyStanton)的人经营伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司，他向股东发了一封信，提出以11.375 元\u002F股的价格回购22.5 万股股票。我本来期待着那封信，但却惊讶于这个价格。",[14,21,22],{},"伯克希尔当时有1,583,680 股的流通股，其中大约7%的股份由巴菲特合伙公司持有(BPL)，这是一家由我管理的投资公司，我的所有净资产几乎都在这里。在那个投标书寄给我前不久，Stanton 问我，BPL 将以什么价格出售其所持股份。我回答说11.5 美元。他说：\"好吧，我们成交\"。而后，在伯克希尔的来信件中，价格少了 0.125 美元(即11.375)。我对Stanton 的行为感到愤怒，所以没有同意。",[14,24,25],{},"这是个极其愚蠢的决定。",[14,27,28],{},"伯克希尔当时是一家陷入困境的北方的纺织品制造商。这个行业正在向南方转移，不论是隐喻的，还是实际上的。由于种种原因，伯克希尔无法做出相应改变。",[14,30,31],{},"这是事实，尽管行业的问题早已被广泛地理解。伯克希尔在1954 年7 月29 日的董事会会议记录中，记录了惨淡的事实：\"新英格兰地区的纺织业在40 年前就开始倒闭。在战争期间，这个趋势暂时停止了。然而，这个趋势势必会持续到供需平衡为止。\"大约在那次董事会议后一年，两家成立于19 世纪的公司，伯克希尔精纺公司(Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates)和哈撒韦制造公司(Hathaway Manufacturing)合并在一起，改为我们现在用的名字。合并后的公司拥有14 个工厂和1 万名员工，成为新英格兰地区的纺织巨头。然而，两家公司管理层所认为的合并协议很快演变为自杀式契约。在合并后的七年间，伯克希尔的经营整体亏损，账面价值缩水37%。与此同时，公司关闭了九个工厂，有时候会用清算所得去回购股票，这个模式引起了我的注意。",[14,33,34],{},"1962 年12 月，我通过BPL 购买了第一批伯克希尔股票，我预计会有更多的关闭工厂和回购行为。当时股价是7.5 美元，相比于10.25 美元的运营资本和20.2 美元的账面价值有很大的折扣。在这个价格购买股票，就像是捡起别人抛弃的只剩一口的雪茄烟蒂。尽管烟蒂可能又脏又湿，但这口烟却是免费的。然而，一旦享受了这种短暂的愉悦，就再也没有什么值得期待的了。",[14,36,37],{},"随后伯克希尔正如预想的那样：很快又关闭了另外2 家工厂，并在1964 年用清算所得回购股票。Stanton 提出的报价比我们原始的买入成本高出50%。我免费吸烟蒂的机会正等着我，之后我就可以去别处继续寻找那些被抛弃的烟蒂。相反，由于恼火于Stanton 的欺骗，我无视了他的回购报价，并开始大举买入更多的股票。",[14,39,40],{},"到1965 年4 月，BPL 已拥有392,633 股(当时已发行1,017,547 股)，在5 月初的董事会上，我们正式地接管了公司。通过Seabury 和我的幼稚的行为(毕竟，0.125 美元，对于我或者他而言，算得了什么？)他丢掉了他的工作，而我发现自己把BPL 超过25%的资本投资在一项知之甚少的糟糕生意上。我变成了一只追逐汽车的狗。",[14,42,43],{},"由于伯克希尔的经营亏损和股票回购，1964 财年末的净资产，已从1955 年合并时的5500 万美元降到了2200 万美元。2200 万美元全部都投在纺织业务上：公司没有多余的现金，并且欠银行250 万美元。",[14,45,46],{},"有段时间我很幸运：伯克希尔很快就享受了两年良好的运营状况。更好的是，它在那几年的收益是不需要缴交所得税的，因为它前几年的灾难性运营结果，累积了大量的亏损结转。",[14,48,49],{},"然后蜜月很快就结束了。在1966 年之后的18 年里，我们在纺织业里艰难挣扎，但却一无所获。但是固执(愚蠢？)是有限度的。1985 年，我终于认输了，结束了纺织业的运营。",[14,51,52],{},"我第一个错误是将BPL 大部分资本投入到一个濒临倒闭的企业中，但这并未阻止我继续犯错，我快速地加剧了这个错误。事实上，我的第二个错误，要远远比第一个严重，最终成为我职业生涯中代价最高的一个。",[14,54,55],{},"1967 年初，我通过伯克希尔支付860 万美元收购了国民保险公司(NICO)，这是一家位于奥马哈的小型但有前途的保险公司(一个小的姐妹公司也包括在这笔交易中)。保险行业是我的最佳选择：我理解并喜欢这个行业。",[14,57,58],{},"NICO 的拥有者JackRingwalt，是我的老朋友，他想把公司卖给我个人。他提出的报价决不是给伯克希尔公司的。所以，为什么我为伯克希尔而不是BPL 收购了NICO 呢？我有48 年时间去思考这个问题，但我始终没想到好的答案。我只是犯了一个天大的错误。",[14,60,61],{},"如果BPL 是NICO 的收购方，我的合伙人和我将会100%拥有一个好生意，这注定会形成构造现今伯克希尔的基础。此外，在将近二十年时间里，我们的成长将不会受到纺织业中禁锢的非生产性资本的阻碍。最后，我们之后的并购将会由我的合伙人和我完全拥有，而不是还被伯克希尔遗留的股东拥有39%的股份，我们对他们没有义务。尽管这些事实摆在我面前，我还是选择将一家100%好生意(NICO)与一家我拥有61%股份的烂生意(BRK)合并在一起，这个决定最终将约1000 亿美元资本从BPL 合伙人那儿转移给了一大堆陌生人。",[14,63,64],{},"再来一次忏悔，而后我会进入到更让人开心的话题：你能相信我在1975 年又收购了另外一家新英格兰地区的纺织企业WaumbecMills 公司吗？当然，基于我们获得的资产，以及与伯克希尔现有的纺织业务的预期协同效应，这次收购的价格是个\"便宜货\"的价格。然而——意外地，意外地——Waumbec 是一场灾难，因为几年后工厂就不得不关闭了。",[14,66,67],{},"现在有一些好消息了：北方的纺织业终于灭绝了。如果又听到我在英格兰地区闲逛，你就不必再惊慌了。",[69,70,71],"h4",{"id":71},"查理理顺了我的思路",[14,73,74],{},"当我管理小规模资金的时候，我的烟蒂策略非常的有效。事实上，我1950 年代所获得的几十次免费烟蒂，使得那10 年成为我人生迄今为止，不管是相对还是绝对投资表现都是最美好的10 年。",[14,76,77],{},"然而，纵使是在当时，我也有一些非烟蒂类型的投资，其中最重要的是GEICO 保险。多亏了1951 年我和",[14,79,80],{},"Lorimer Davidson 的谈话，他是一个很好的人，后来成为了该公司的CEO。从谈话中我得知，GEICO 是家极好的公司，并迅速将我9800 美元净资产的65%投入到它的股票中。不过，我早年的大部分收益来自于，投资低价交易的平庸公司。本杰明·格雷厄姆教给我这项技能，而且非常奏效。但这个方法的一个主要缺点逐渐显现出来：烟蒂投资法只能在一定程度上扩大规模。对于大规模资金，它可能永远不会有效。",[14,82,83],{},"另外，尽管用便宜的价格购买边缘化的生意，作为短期投资可能很有吸引力，但它们是构造庞大而且持久的企业的错误基础。相比于约会，选择婚姻伴侣显然需要更苛刻的条件(需要指出的是，伯克希尔本来可能是一个非常令人满意的\"约会\"：如果我们接受了SeaburyStanton 提出的11.375 美元报价，BPL 对伯克希尔投资的加权年化回报率将高达40%。)",[14,85,86],{},"上天派来查理·芒格打破了我的烟蒂投资习惯，并为建立一家规模巨大且利润丰厚的企业指明了方向。查理在距离我现在所住的地方大约几百英尺的地方长大，年轻时和我一样，在我祖父的杂货店里工作过。然而，直到1959 年我才见到查理，那时他早已经离开奥马哈定居洛杉矶了。当时我28 岁，他是35。介绍我们认识的奥马哈医生预测我们会一见如故，我们确实如此。",[14,88,89],{},"如果你参加过我们的年会，就会知道查理才华横溢，记忆力惊人，观点坚定。我并不真的是思路不清，而且我们有时意见也不一致。然而56 年来，我们从未争吵过。当我们意见分歧，查理往往用这句话结束我们的对话：\"沃伦，再仔细想想，你会赞成我的观点，因为你很聪明，而我是对的。\"",[14,91,92],{},"你们大多数人所不知道的是，建筑是查理的爱好之一。尽管查理的职业生涯始于执业律师(那时候时薪为15美元\u002F小时)，但他在30 多岁时通过设计并且建造了洛杉矶附近的5 个公寓楼项目，赚到了第一桶金。同时，他设计了现在已经居住了55 年的房子。(和我一样，如果他对周围环境感到满意，他就不愿意搬家。)在最近几年，查理设计了斯坦福和密歇根大学的大型宿舍楼，如今91 岁高龄的他，正在进行另一个重大项目。",[14,94,95,96],{},"然而在我看来，查理最重要的建筑成就就是设计了今天的伯克希尔。他给我的蓝图很简单：",[97,98,99],"strong",{},"忘记你所知道的以极低的价格买入普通生意；相反地，要以合理的价格买入伟大的生意。",[14,101,102],{},"改变我的行为不是一件容易的事(问问我的家人)。没有查理的参与，我已经获得了相当大的成功，所以我为什么应该去听一个从未在商学院呆过一天的律师的话呢？(而我待过三个：宾法沃顿商学院，内布拉斯加商学院，哥伦比亚商学院)。但是查理不厌其烦地对我重复他的商业和投资的箴言，他的逻辑是不可反驳的。因此，伯克希尔是依据查理的蓝图建立的。我的角色是总承建商，而伯克希尔子公司CEO 们，则作为分包商做着实际工作。",[14,104,105],{},"1972 年是伯克希尔的一个转折年(尽管我偶尔还是会出现滑坡——还记得我1975 年收购Waumbec 的交易吗)。那时我们有机会为蓝筹印花公司购买喜诗糖果，查理，我和伯克希尔拥有大量蓝筹印花股票，后来并入了伯克希尔。",[14,107,108,109,112],{},"喜诗糖果是西海岸一家传奇的巧克力制造商和零售商，当时税前利润约400 万美元，而净有形资产仅有800万美元。另外，公司拥有一项资产负债表上从未曾体现的巨大资产：",[97,110,111],{},"广泛的而持久的竞争优势，赋予它巨大的定价权","。**这个优势长期几乎肯定会给喜诗糖果带来重大增量收益。更好的是，只需要少量的增量投资，这些增量收益就会实现。**换句话说，喜诗糖果有望在未来几十年里，涌现出巨大的现金流。",[14,114,115],{},"控制喜诗糖果的家族希望要价3000 万美元，查理正确地指出它值这个价钱。但我并不想支付超过2500 万美元，甚至对2500 万美元我也不没有多少热情(三倍于有形资产的价格让我相当为难)。我的错误的谨慎，差一点毁了这桩极好的收购。但是，幸运的是，卖家决定接受我们2500 万美元的报价。",[14,117,118,119,122],{},"迄今为止，喜诗糖果累积税前利润为19 亿美元，而它的成长，仅仅需要4000 万美元的额外投资。因此喜诗可以分派巨额资金，帮助伯克希尔去购买其他生意，而这些生意本身又产生了巨额可分配利润(像兔子繁殖一样)。另外，通过观察喜诗的交易，",[97,120,121],{},"我获得了有关强大品牌价值的商业教育","，开拓了我的眼光，让我看到了许多其他有利可图的投资机会。",[14,124,125],{},"纵使有了查理的蓝图，自错误收购Waumbec 以来，我还是犯了很多错误。最可怕的是收购Dexter 鞋业。当我们于1993 年收购这家公司时，它有着出色的记录，在我看来全然不像烟蒂股。然而，由于外国的激烈竞争，它的竞争优势很快蒸发了。而我根本没有想到这一点。",[14,127,128],{},"因此，伯克希尔为Dexter 支付的4.33 亿美元很快便归零了。然而，GAAP 会计核算却没有很好地反映出我错误的程度。事实是我支付给Dexter 卖家的不是现金，而是伯克希尔股票。我用于收购的那部分股票，现在价值大约57 亿美元。作为一场金融灾难，理应写进吉尼斯世界纪录。",[14,130,131,132,135],{},"我随后犯下的几个错误，还",[97,133,134],{},"包括使用伯克希尔的股票去购买那些利润注定会衰退的企业","。这类错误是致命的。用优秀企业的股票(伯克希尔必然是)去交换普通企业的所有权，会不可挽回地毁灭价值。",[14,137,138,139],{},"当伯克希尔持股的公司犯下这种错误的时候，我们同样会遭受财务上的损失(有时这些错误还发生在我担任董事期间)。CEO 们往往对对一个基本现实视而不见：",[97,140,141],{},"你在并购中所付出的股份的内在价值，不能高于你所获得的公司股份的内在价值。",[14,143,144],{},"我至今没有看到一位投资银行家，在向潜在收购方董事会提交换股收购时，量化这个重要的数学依据。相反地，这些银行家的专注点将放在描述，为收购支付的市场价格的\"惯常\"溢价上，这是评估收购吸引力的一种绝对愚蠢的方式，或者这个交易是否将会增加收购方的每股收益(它本身应该远非决定性因素)。在努力实现预期的每股收益数字的过程中，气喘吁吁的CEO 和他的\"顾问们\"，常常会想象出一种美妙的\"协同效应\"。(多年来，作为19 家公司的董事，我从未听说过\"不协同效应\"，虽然我在交易结束后目睹了许多这样的情况)。在美国企业的董事会里，很少会有收购的事后剖析复盘，相反，这一过程应该是标准做法。",[14,146,147],{},"我可以向你保证，在我离开后很长一段时间内，伯克希尔的CEO 和董事会，在任何发行股票的收购之前，都会仔细地做好内在价值的计算。你不可能用一张100 美元的钞票去交换8 张10 美元的钞票而致富。(即使你的顾问帮你出具了昂贵的\"公平交易\"的意见来为这种交换背书)。",[14,149,150],{},"总的来说，伯克希尔的收购进展顺利，在一些大型收购中做得非常不错。我们对有价证券的投资也是如此。后者在我们的财报上总是以市值计算，所以任何的收益(包括那些尚未实现的投资收益)都会立即反映在我们的资产净值中。但是那些我们完全买断的公司，在我们的资产负债表上从未向上重新估值，即使我们可以以高出账面价值数十亿美元的价格出售它们。伯克希尔子公司中未记录的价值增值已经变得非常巨大，在过去的十年里增速特别快。听查理的话得到了回报。",[69,152,153],{"id":153},"今天的伯克希尔",[14,155,156],{},"伯克希尔现在是个庞大的企业集团(conglomerate)，并且试图进一步扩张。",[14,158,159],{},"应当承认，企业集团在投资者中名声不佳。这是它们应得的。让我们先解释一下，为什么它们受到冷落，然后我将继续描述，为什么企业集团的形式会给伯克希尔带来巨大且持久的优势。",[14,161,162],{},"自从我进入商界以来，企业集团已经经受了几段非常受欢迎的时期，其中最为愚蠢的一段发生在1960 年代末期。那时企业集团CEO 的把戏非常的简单：依靠人格魅力，依靠推广宣传，或者依靠可疑的会计操作——经常是三者并用，这些管理者把一个新组建的企业集团股价推升到20 倍市盈率，然后迅速发行股票，以10 倍左右的市盈率收购另一家公司。它们立即将\"权益合并法\"(pooling)会计应用于收购，在被收购公司业务没有任何的变化的情况下，但其每股收益却自动地增加了，并将其作为自己管理天才的体现。他们接着对投资者解释说，这种才能证明了，维持甚至提高收购方公司市盈率倍数的的合理性。最后，他们许诺会无尽地重复这一过程，从而创造不断增长的每股收益。",[14,164,165],{},"随着60 年代的过去，华尔街对这种把戏的喜爱与日俱增。当这些可疑的策略被用于制造不断上升的每股收益时，华尔街的居民们总是愿意放弃对其暂时的怀疑，特别是当这些把戏产生的企业合并，能为投资银行家们带来巨额费用的时候。会计师们乐于在企业集团的会计报表上泼洒他们的圣水，有时甚至就如何进一步提高这些数字提出建议。对许多人来说，源源不断轻松赚来的钱冲刷掉了他们道德的敏感性。",[14,167,168],{},"正是由于不断扩张的企业集团，其每股收益的增加来自于利用市盈率的差异，因此它的CEO 不得不寻找低市盈率的公司。当然，这些都是典型的平庸生意，长期前景不佳。在这在糟糕生意中捕鱼的动机，往往使得企业集团的基础业务变得越来越糟糕。这对投资者来说无关紧要：他们希望通过并购速度和合并法会计来增加收益。",[14,170,171],{},"由此引发的并购风暴被盲目崇拜的媒体煽动起来。诸如国际电话电信(ITT)，利顿工业(Litton Industies)，海湾和西方集团(Gulf & Western)和LTV 防务集团(Ling-Temco-Vought)等公司受到了追捧，它们的CEO 也成了名人。(这些曾经出名的企业集团如今早已不复存在。就像Yogi Berra 说的，\"每个拿破仑都会遇到他的水门(相对于凯旋门，代指失败)。\")",[14,173,174],{},"当时，各种各样的会计诡计(其中许多诡计透明的离谱)都被原谅或者忽视了。事实上，让一位会计造假专家执掌一家不断扩张的企业集团，竟被视为一个巨大的优势：在那种情况下，股东可以确信的是，不管企业运营的实际状况变得多么糟糕，报告的收益都不会让人失望。",[14,176,177],{},"在1960 年代末期，我参加了一个会议，会议上一位偏爱收购的CEO 吹嘘自己\"大胆且富有想象力的会计手法\"。大多数的分析师听着他的话，都频频点头表示赞赏，认为自己找到了一个无论业务经营结果如何，其预期一定会实现的经理人。",[14,179,180],{},"然而，最终十二点的时钟敲响了，一切变成了南瓜和老鼠，再一次地证明，基于一系列的高价股票连续发行的商业模式(就像连锁信模式一样)，最可能的是财富的重新分配，但绝不会创造财富。然而，这两种现象在我们国家周期性的出现(它们是每个倡导者的梦想)，虽然它们往往以精心伪装的骗局出现。结局总是相同的：金钱从轻信者流向行骗者。与连锁信骗局不同，从股票中劫持的金额是惊人的。",[14,182,183,184,187],{},"在BPL 和伯克希尔公司，",[97,185,186],{},"我们从未投资过那些一心想要发行股票的公司","。这种行为是以下情况的最可靠的指标之一：一个注重推销的管理层，糟糕的会计原则，高估的股价，以及往往全然地不诚实。",[14,189,190],{},"那么，查理和我为什么会认为伯克希尔的企业集团结构如此有吸引力呢？简单地说：如果明智地使用企业集团形式，它是实现最大化长期资金增长的理想形式。",[14,192,193,196],{},[97,194,195],{},"资本主义的一个显著的优点就是能有效地配置资金","。因为市场将资金引向有前途的生意中，而拒绝那些注定要倒闭的生意。这是真的：尽管存在过度的行为，但市场驱动的资金配置往往远胜过其他的选择。",[14,198,199],{},"然而，资本的合理流动往往存在障碍。正如1954 年伯克希尔会议记录所清晰体现的那样，由于自私的管理层空虚的期盼，在纺织业中本应及早的资本撤出却被推迟了数十年。事实上，我自己也拖延了很久才放弃了我们过时的纺织厂。",[14,201,202],{},"当CEO 在一个衰退产业中投入了资本，他很少会选择将资本大规模地重新配置到不相关的业务中。因为这样的行为，往往需要解雇长期的合作伙伴并承认自己的错误。此外，CEO 也不太可能就是你希望承担重新配置工作的经理人，即使这个CEO 想要承担这项工作。",[14,204,205],{},"在股东的层面，当个人投资者试图在企业和行业之间重新分配资本时，税收和摩擦成本会给他们带来沉重的负担。即使免税的机构投资者在转换资本时也面临比较大的成本，因为他们通常需要中介机构去完成这个工作。",[14,207,208],{},"此时，无数张昂贵的嘴需要被养活——其中包括投资银行家，会计师，咨询师，律师以及资本配置运营商比如杠杆收购者。资本的重新洗牌可一点也不便宜。",[14,210,211],{},"相比之下，像伯克希尔这样的企业集团完全有能力以最低的成本，合理地配置资本。当然，企业形式本身并不能保证会成功：我们犯了无数错误，并且还会犯更多。然而，我们的结构性优势是非常强大的。",[14,213,214],{},"在伯克希尔，**我们能够在不产生税负或者其他成本的情况下，将巨额资本，从增量投资机会有限的业务中，转移到其他有更大前景的业务中。**另外，我们不会因与特定行业的终身联系而产生历史偏见，也不会遭受维护现状符合其既得利益的同伴的压力。这一点很重要：如果马儿控制了投资决策，那么就不会有汽车行业了。",[14,216,217],{},"我们拥有的另一个主要优势是，购买好生意的一部分(普通股)的能力。这不是大多数管理层可以采取的活动。在我们的历史中，这种策略选择已被证明是非常有益的；广泛的选择总是使得决策更加明智。股票市场每天给予我们的企业报价(当然只是一小部分)，往往比我们整体收购的报价更具吸引力。此外，我们从股市上实现的收益，帮助我们进行了许多大型收购，否则这些收购将会超出我们的财务能力。",[14,219,220,221,224],{},"实际上世界是属于伯克希尔的——这个世界提供给我们范围广泛的机会，远远超出大多数企业实际面临的机会。当然，",[97,222,223],{},"我们仅限于那些我们能够评估其经济前景的企业","。这是一个重要的限制：很多企业查理和我都不知道十年后将会如何。但是这种限制远远小于，一位经验仅限于单一领域的高管所承受的限制。除此之外，我们可以有利可图的持续扩大规模，远远超过许多企业，这些企业普遍受到其所在单一行业潜力有限的制约。",[14,226,227,228,231],{},"我前面提到，相比于它适度的资本需求，喜诗糖果产出了大量现金收益。当然，我们很乐意明智地使用那些资本，去扩大我们的糖果业务。但是我们多次扩张的尝试基本上都是徒劳的。所以，在不产生无效税负或摩擦成本的情况下，我们将喜诗糖果产出的多余资金用于收购其他业务。",[97,229,230],{},"如果喜诗糖果仍然是一家独立的公司，它的巨额收益将不得不分配给投资者以重新配置，有时在巨额税收以后，几乎总是被巨大的摩擦和代理人成本耗尽","。",[14,233,234,235,231],{},"伯克希尔还有一个近年来变得越来越重要的优势：",[97,236,237],{},"我们现在是很多杰出企业拥有者和管理者的首选之地",[14,239,240,241,244,245,248],{},"拥有成功企业的家族，在考虑出售时有多种选择。",[97,242,243],{},"通常最好的选择是什么都不做","。生活中有许多比拥有一个自己非常了解且繁荣的企业更加糟糕的事情，但华尔街很少建议人们呆坐不动(",[97,246,247],{},"不要问理发师你是否需要理发",")。",[14,250,251],{},"当一个家庭部分成员想要出售，而另一部分想要继续经营的时候，公开发行股票通常会变得合理。但是，当所有者想要完全地出售，他们通常考虑以下两个途径之一。",[14,253,254,255,258],{},"第一个选择是，",[97,256,257],{},"出售给竞争对手","。他们对两家公司的合并可能产生的\"协同效应\"正垂涎三尺。这类收购者总是考虑解雇出售方的大量员工，也就是那些帮助所有者建立起这个业务的人。然而，一个体贴的所有者(有很多这样的人)，往往不想让他的长期伙伴悲伤地唱古老的乡村歌曲：\"她得到了金矿，我得到了竖井(不公平对待)\"。",[14,260,261,262,265],{},"第二种选择是，",[97,263,264],{},"出售给华尔街买家","。多年来，确切的说这种收购方自称为\"杠杆收购公司\"。当这词汇在1990年代获得了恶名，还记得RJR 收购案和门口的野蛮人吗？这些买家匆忙地将自己改称为\"私募股权\"。名字可能已经改变，但本质不变：几乎所有的私募股权收购案中，股权比例大幅减少，债务大幅提高。实际上，私募股权购买方向卖方提供的报价，部分取决于买方对被收购公司所能承受的债务上限的评估。接着，如果事情进展顺利(债务下降)，股权比例开始回升，杠杆收购机构往往会寻求利用新的借贷来进行再杠杆化。然后他们通常会将部分收益用于支付巨额的债务利息，使得股东权益大幅度减少，有时甚至是负值。事实上，对于许多私募股权买方来说，\"股权\"是一个讨厌的词汇；他们喜爱的是债务。而且因为目前债务成本如此低廉，这些买方往往愿意支付最高价。接着公司将被转售，通常是卖给另外一个杠杠收购方。实际上公司变成了一件可交易的商品。",[14,267,268],{},"伯克希尔提供了希望出售业务的所有者第三种选择：**一个永久的家，公司的员工和文化将被保留其中(尽管偶尔也需要更换管理层)。**除此之外，我们收购的任何业务，都会大大增强其财务实力和增长能力。它与银行和华尔街分析师打交道的日子也永远地结束了。有些卖家并不关心这些问题。但卖家关心的时候，伯克希尔并没有太多的竞争对手。",[14,270,271],{},"有时评论员提议伯克希尔剥离部分业务。这些建议毫无道理。作为伯克希尔的一部分，我们的子公司比作为独立的实体要更有价值。其中一个原因是，我们能够立即免税地在企业之间转移资本或投入新的公司。此外，如果业务分开，某些成本会全部或者部分地重复。这里有个最明显的例",[14,273,274],{},"子：伯克希尔单一的董事会只花费了微不足道的成本；如果我们几十家子公司被拆分，董事会成本将大幅增加。监管和管理成本也是如此。",[14,276,277],{},"最后，子公司A 有时会因为我们拥有子公司B，而产生重要的税负效率。例如，我们的公用事业公司目前获得了一些税收抵免，仅仅是因为伯克希尔其他公司的运营中产生了巨额的应税收入。这给予了伯克希尔能源公司在开发风能和太阳能项目方面，比大多数公用事业公司具有重大优势。",[14,279,280],{},"投资银行家不断地催促着收购方为上升公司支付高于市场价20-50%的溢价，他们获得的薪酬与这些活动直接相关。银行家们告诉收购方，溢价是合理的，因为获得了\"控制价值\"，以及一旦收购方CEO 接管好的事情就会发生。(哪一个渴望收购的经理人会对这一说法提出质疑？)几年以后，银行家们绷着脸再次出现，同样热切地催促分拆之前收购的公司，以\"释放股东价值\"。当然，分拆会剥离母公司所谓的\"控制价值\"，而且不会支付任何赔偿。银行家解释说，分拆后的公司将会蓬勃发展，因为它的管理层将会更具企业家精神，摆脱了母公司令人窒息的官僚作风。(我们早前见到的那位才华横溢的CEO 就这么点本事。)如果这家剥离后的公司日后希望重新收购分拆的业务，银行家可能会再次催促，其为这一特权支付巨额\"控制\"溢价。(银行界的这类心理上的\"灵活性\"促使人们认为，费用往往会导致交易，而不是交易导致了费用。)",[14,282,283],{},"当然，可能有一天监管机构会要求伯克希尔进行分拆或者出售。伯克希尔于1979 年实施了这种分拆，当时针对银行控股公司的新规，迫使我们剥离位于Illinois 州Rockford 市的一家银行。",[14,285,286],{},"然而，自愿分拆对我们而言毫无意义。我们将损失控制价值，资本配置的灵活性，在一些情况下，还好失去重要的税收优势。考虑到源于伯克希尔所有权所带来的运营和财务优势，那些管理我们子公司的出色CEO 们，将很难在运营分拆后的业务时发挥同样的作用。另外，母公司和分拆后的公司一旦分离，将可能产生比合并时更高的成本。",[14,288,289],{},"在我离开分拆话题以前，让我们先来看一个从前面提到的LTV 企业集团中学到的教训。我将在这儿做总结，但那些喜好金融故事的人应当阅读在1982 年10 月D-Magazine 上发表的有关JimmyLing 的文章(网址如下：",[14,291,292,299,300,303],{},[293,294,298],"a",{"href":295,"rel":296},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.dmagazine.com\u002Fpublications\u002Fd-magazine\u002F1982\u002Foctober\u002Fjim-ling\u002F)%E3%80%82%E7%BB%8F%E8%BF%87%E4%B8%80%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E7%9C%BC%E8%8A%B1%E7%BC%AD%E4%B9%B1%E7%9A%84%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E8%BF%90%E4%BD%9C%EF%BC%8CLing",[297],"nofollow","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.dmagazine.com\u002Fpublications\u002Fd-magazine\u002F1982\u002Foctober\u002Fjim-ling\u002F)。经过一系列眼花缭乱的公司运作，Ling"," 将LTV 公司从1965 年仅仅3600 万美元销售额，提升到了两年后的世界500 强第14 名。应该指出的是，Ling 从未表现出任何的管理技能。但是查理很久以前告诉我说，",[97,301,302],{},"永远不要低估那些高估自己的人","。Ling在这方面是无人能比的。Ling 的策略，他称之为\"项目重新部署\"(Project Touchdown)，也就是买入一家大公司，然后部分分拆其各个部门。在LTV 的1966 年度报告，他解释了接下来将要发生的魔法：\"最重要的是，收购一定要满足2＋2＝5(或6)的公式检验\"。媒体，公众和华尔街喜欢这类的讲话。",[14,305,306],{},"在1967 年，Ling 收购了一家大型肉类加工企业威尔逊公司(Wilson&Co.)，这家公司也有高尔夫设备和药业业务。很快地，他将母公司拆分为三家公司，Wilson 肉加工公司(Wilson&Co.),Wilson 体育用品公司(Wilson Sporting Goods)和Wilson 制药公司(Wilson Pharmaceuticals)，这三家公司都将被部分地分拆独立。这些公司很快被华尔街称为肉球Meatball，高尔夫球Golfball，傻球Goofball。不久后，很清楚的是，就像希腊神话的 Icarus 一样，Ling 飞得太靠近太阳了。在1970 年代初期，Ling 的帝国开始瓦解，他自己也被从LTV 中分拆出来，也就是被解雇了。",[308,309,310],"blockquote",{},[14,311,312],{},"(伊卡洛斯Icarus 是希腊神话中代达罗斯的儿子，与代达罗斯使用蜡和羽毛造的翼逃离克里特岛时，他因飞得太高双翼上的蜡遭太阳融化跌落水中丧生。为了纪念伊卡洛斯，埋葬他的海岛命名为伊卡利亚岛。)",[14,314,315],{},"金融市场会周期性的脱离现实，你大可以相信这一点。更多的JimmyLing 们将会出现。他们看起来和听起来都很权威。媒体将紧盯着他们说的每一个字。银行家们将为他们的生意而战。他们近期说的话将\"发挥作用\"。他们早期的跟随着将会觉得自己非常明智。我们的建议是：不论他们说什么，永远不要忘记2＋2 永远等于4。当有人告诉你这个数学公式如何落伍时，拉上钱包拉链去度假，几年后回来以便宜的价格购买股票。",[14,317,318],{},"今天的伯克希尔拥有：",[308,320,321,324,327,330,333],{},[14,322,323],{},"1，一个无与伦比的公司组合，其中大多数都有着良好的经济前景。",[14,325,326],{},"2，一批优秀的经理人，他们几无例外地异常专注于他们所经营的子公司和伯克希尔母公司。",[14,328,329],{},"3，非凡的收益多元化来源，卓越的财务实力，和大量的流动资金，我们将在任何情况下保持。",[14,331,332],{},"4，对于许多的所有者和管理者来说，在考虑出售他们的生意的时候，我们公司是他们的第一选择。",[14,334,335],{},"5，在与上一项有关的方面，一种在许多方面和大多数的大公司不同的文化，我们公司已经努力了50 年去发展公司文化，现在已经坚如磐石。",[14,337,338],{},"以上这些优势为我们的未来发展奠定了一个美妙的基础。",[69,340,342],{"id":341},"未来50-年的伯克希尔","未来50 年的伯克希尔",[14,344,345],{},"现在让我们看看前方的道路。请记住，如果我在五十年前试图预测将来发生的事，我的某些预测将会大大偏离目标。有了这个告诫之后，我将会告诉你们，如果今天我的家人问我伯克希尔的未来，我会对他们说些什么。",[14,347,348],{},"1，首先，也是最为重要的一点，我相信，对于耐心的伯克希尔投资者而言，永久性的资本损失的机率，是单一公司投资中最低的。这是因为我们的每股内在商业价值，随着时间推移几乎确定会增加。",[14,350,351,352],{},"然而，这个乐观的预言伴随着一个重要的警告：如果伯克希尔投资者的买入点异常高，比如价格接近账面价值的两倍，伯克希尔股票偶尔会达到这个水平，那么投资者可能需要很多年才能实现盈利。",[97,353,354],{},"换句话说，一项明智的投资，如果以高价买入，也可能演变成一种鲁莽的投机行为，伯克希尔也不例外。",[14,356,357],{},"然而，投资者以略高于公司回购股份的价格水平购买伯克希尔的股票，应当会在一个合理的时期内产生收益。伯克希尔的董事们只会在股价远低于他们认为的内在价值时授权回购。(在我们的观念中，这是回购的基本标准，这个标准经常被其他管理者忽视。)",[14,359,360],{},"对于那些打算在买入后一两年内出售股票的投资者，无论买入价格如何，我都不能保证。在如此短的时间内，股市的走势变动对于你投资结果的影响，可能比伯克希尔内在价值的变化的影响更重要。就像本杰明格雷厄姆几十年前说的：\"短期而言，市场是台投票机；长期而言，市场是台称重机\"。有时投资者(业余人士和专业人士)的投票决定都近似于神经病。",[14,362,363],{},"由于我不知道如何可靠地预测市场走势，因此我建议，只有你打算持有伯克希尔股票至少五年的情况下，你才应该购买，那些谋求短期利润的人应当到别处看看。",[14,365,366,367,370],{},"另一个警告是：",[97,368,369],{},"不应当借钱购买伯克希尔的股票","。自从1965 年以来，我们的股价是从高点下跌约50%的情况有过三次。将来某天，这类下跌会再次发生，但没人知道是什么时候。对投资者来说，伯克希尔几乎肯定是一个令人满意的持有标的。但对于使用杠杆的投机者来说，它同样可能是一个灾难性的选择。",[14,372,373],{},"2，我认为，任何事件导致伯克希尔遭遇财务问题的可能性基本为零。我们将永远为千年的洪水做好准备；事实上，如果它发生了，我们将把救生衣卖给那些没有准备的人。在2008-2009 的金融危机中，伯克希尔作为\"第一反应者\"发挥了重要作用，从那以后，我们的资产负债表强度和盈利能力增加了一倍多。贵公司是美国商业的直布罗陀并将继续如此。",[14,375,376],{},"财务持久力要求一家公司在任何情况下保持三个优势：**1)庞大且可靠的收入流；(2)大量的流动资产；(3)近期没有重大的现金需求。**忽视了最后一条的必要性，常常导致公司遇到意想不到的问题：太多时候，盈利的公司的 CEO 们感觉他们总是能够偿还到期债务，不论债务规模多大。在2008-2009 年，许多管理层认识到这种思维方式有多么危险。",[14,378,379],{},"以下是我们无论如何将始终坚持的三个原则：首先，我们的收益流是巨大的，并且来自各种各样的业务。我们的股东现在拥有许多具备持续竞争优势的大型公司，我们将在未来收购更多这样的公司。我们的多元化确保了伯克希尔持续的盈利能力，即使一个大灾难导致的保险损失远远超越过去任何一次。",[14,381,382],{},"接下来是现金。在一个健康的企业中，现金有时候被认为是需要最小化的东西，作为非生产性资产，会拖累股本回报率等指标。然而，现金对于企业而言，就像氧气对于人一样：当它存在的时候从来不会想它，但当它不存在的时候，脑海中唯一想的就是现金。",[14,384,385],{},"美国企业在2008 年提供了一个研究案例。那年9 月，许多长期繁荣的公司突然想知道，它们的支票在未来几天是否会被拒付。一夜之间，它们的财务氧气消失了。",[14,387,388],{},"在伯克希尔，我们的\"呼吸\"不受干扰。事实上，在9 月末、10 月初的三个周内，我们为美国企业提供了156亿美元的新资金。我们能够做到这点，因为我们始终保持至少200 亿美元的现金等价物，而且通常远多于此。这里我们指的是美国国债，而不是其他声称可以提供流动性，但只有真的被需要的时候才能实际提供流动性的现金替代物。当债务到期，只有现金才是法定货币。没有它寸步难行。",[14,390,391],{},"最后是我们的第三点，我们永远不会参与可能导致突然需要大额资金的运营或投资活动。这意味着我们不会让伯克希尔暴露在短期债务到期的风险中，也不会签订衍生品合约，或者其他可能需要大量抵押物的业务安排。",[14,393,394],{},"几年以前，我们参与了某些衍生品合约，我们认为这些合约定价严重错误，并且只有很少的抵押品要求。这些已经被证明相当地有利可图。然而，最近新签订的衍生品合约要求提供充分的抵押物。这终结了我们对于衍生品的兴趣，不论它们可能提供何种的盈利潜力。我们已经好几年没有签订这类合约了，除了少数我们的公用事业运营需要的合同。",[14,396,397,398,401],{},"此外，我们将不会签订那些客户可以选择取出现金的保险合约。",[97,399,400],{},"许多人寿保险产品都包含赎回功能，这使得它们在极端恐慌的时期很容易遭到\"挤兑\"","。然而，在我们所经营的财产意外险世界中，这类合同并不存在。如果我们的保费数量下降，我们的浮存金将会减少，但是速度会非常缓慢。",[14,403,404,405],{},"我们这种保守主义可能会给一些人留下极端的印象，其原因是，人们偶尔地会恐慌，但何时会恐慌则是完全无法预测的。尽管几乎所有的日子都相对无事，但明天总是不确定的。(在1941 年12 月6 日或2001 年9 月11日，我没有感到特别恐惧)。",[97,406,407],{},"如果你不能预测明天会发生什么，你必须为无论发生什么做好准备。",[14,409,410,411],{},"一位64 岁且计划65 岁退休的CEO，在评估1 年内发生几率极小的风险时，可能有他自己的特殊计算。事实上，他可能99%的时间都是\"正确\"的。然而，那些赔率对我们没有吸引力。我们将永远不会用你们托付给我们的资金，玩财务的俄罗斯轮盘，即使这把隐喻的枪有100 个枪膛且仅有一发子弹。",[97,412,413],{},"在我们看来，冒着失去你所需要的东西的风险，去追求你仅仅渴望得到的东西，是愚蠢的。",[14,415,416],{},"3，尽管我们保守，但我认为我们每年都能继续增加伯克希尔潜在的每股盈利能力。这并不意味着经营收益每年都会增长，事实远非如此。美国经济将起起伏伏，尽管主要是上涨，当经济衰退的时候，我们当前的盈利也会减少。但是我们将继续取得逐步的收益增长，进行补强型收购，并不断进入新的领域。所以，我相信伯克希尔每年都会增加它的潜在盈利能力。",[14,418,419],{},"在某些年份，收益将会是巨大的，而在其他时候，收益将很少。市场，竞争和机会将会决定何时机会出现在我们面前。总而言之，伯克希尔将由我们现在拥有的一系列坚实的业务，以及我们将收购新业务的推动下继续保持前进。此外，在多数年份里，美国经济将为企业提供强烈的助力。",[14,421,422],{},"上帝保佑，我们有幸有美国作为主场。",[14,424,425],{},"4，坏消息是，伯克希尔的长期回报率不会很大(以百分比而非美元衡量)，也不会接近在过去50 年里取得的水平。规模数字已经变得过于庞大。我想伯克希尔将超越美国普通公司的平均表现，但我们的优势不会太大(如果有的话)。最终，可能从现在起10-20 年的时间，伯克希尔的收益和资本资源将到达一个水平，将使得管理层无法明智地将公司所有收益进行再投资。在那时，我们的董事会将需要决定，分配超额收益最好的方式是通过派发股息，股份回购，还是二者皆有。如果伯克希尔的股份是低于内在商业价值的价格出售，大规模的回购几乎肯定是最佳选择。你可以放心，你的董事会将会做出正确的决定。",[14,427,428,429,432],{},"5，",[97,430,431],{},"没有哪家公司比伯克希尔更加注重股东利益","。30 多年来，我们每年都会重申我们的股东原则，并总是以此开头：虽然我们的形式是公司制，但我们的态度是合伙制。这个与你们之间的承诺是刻在石头上的。",[14,434,435,436,439,440],{},"我们有一个",[97,437,438],{},"知识渊博、以商业为导向的董事会","，随时准备履行合伙制的承诺。没有人为了金钱而接受这份工作：在其他地方几乎不存在这种安排，我们的董事仅仅得到象征性的薪酬。",[97,441,442],{},"相反，他们通过持有伯克希尔股份，以及成为一家重要企业的优秀管理者而获得的满足感，来作为回报。",[14,444,445],{},"他们和他们的家族所拥有的股份(在很多情况下价值巨大)是从市场中购买的，而不是通过他们的期权或者补助实现的。另外，与几乎所有其他大型上市公司不同，我们没有董事和高管责任险。在伯克希尔，董事们站在你的立场看问题。",[14,447,448],{},"为了进一步确保我们文化的延续性，我建议我的儿子Howard 接替我担任公司的非执行主席。我希望如此的唯一原因是，如果聘用了错误的CEO，并且需要懂事长强制解聘他，改变起来会更加简单。我可以对你们保证，这个问题在伯克希尔出现概率非常低，可能跟任何上市公司一样低。然而，在我为19 家上市公司的董事会服务的过程中，我曾见过如果一个平庸的CEO 同时还是董事长，要换掉他是多么的困难。(换人通常会完成，但几乎总是非常晚。)",[14,450,451],{},"如果Howard 当选，除了所有董事必须做的工作外，他将不会得到任何报酬，也不会再工作上花费任何时间。如果任何董事对CEO 感到担忧，并希望知道其他董事是否也同样表示出疑虑，那么任何董事都可以去找他，他将仅仅成为一个安全阀。如果多个董事表示担忧，霍华德的主席地位将使得此事得到快速和合理地解决。",[14,453,454,455,458],{},"6，",[97,456,457],{},"选择正确的CEO 至关重要","，这也是伯克希尔董事会中需要花费很多时间的问题。管理伯克希尔主要是一项资本配置的工作，同时还要选择和留住出色的管理人员，来领导我们的运营子公司。显然，这项工作还需要再需要的时候更换子公司的CEO。这些职责要求伯克希尔的CEO 是个理性，冷静和果断的人，对商业有着广泛的理解，对人类行为有着深刻的洞察力。同样重要的是，他知道自己的局限性。正如IBM 的创始人Tom Watson 所说，我不是天才，但我在某些领域很聪明，我会一直留在那些领域。)",[14,460,461,464],{},[97,462,463],{},"品格是至关重要的","：伯克希尔的CEO 必须为了公司\"全力以赴\"，而不是他自己。(我使用男性代词是为了避免笨拙的措辞，但性别不应当决定谁成为CEO。)他情不自禁地为公司赚取远超任何可能需要的金钱。但重要的是，无论是自负还是贪婪，都不能激励他去追求与那些薪酬最丰厚的同龄人相当的薪酬，纵使他的成就远远超过他们。CEO 的行为对经理人有着巨大的影响：如果他们清楚知道，对CEO 而言股东的利益是至高无上的，他们也会毫无例外地接受这种思维方式。",[14,466,467,468,471],{},"我的继任者还需要具备一个特别的优势：",[97,469,470],{},"有能力摆脱企业衰退的基本因素，即傲慢，官僚主义和自满","。当这些企业癌症扩散，即使是最强大的公司也会摇摇欲坠。能够证明这个观点的例子非常多，但为了保持友谊，我将仅仅从那些遥远的过去寻找案例。",[14,473,474],{},"在巅峰时期，IBM，通用汽车(GM)，西尔斯(Sears Roebuck)和美国钢铁(U.S.Steel)位居各自行业榜首。它们的实力看上去无懈可击。但是我上文所谴责的破坏性行为，最终导致它们每一个都陷入了其CEO 和董事在不久前还认为不可能的境地。事实证明，它们曾经的财务实力和历史上的盈利能力都毫无保护作用。",[14,476,477,478,481,482],{},"随着伯克希尔规模越来越大，只有一位警惕而坚定的CEO 才能够抵御这种削弱的力量。他必须永远不忘查理的请求：\"",[97,479,480],{},"告诉我我会死在哪里，这样我将永远不会去那儿","\"。如果我们丧失了非经济价值(企业文化)，伯克希尔大部分的经济价值也将崩塌。",[97,483,484],{},"\"高层基调\"将是保持伯克希尔特殊文化的关键。",[14,486,487,488,491],{},"幸运的是，我们未来的CEO 们成功所需要的结构已经稳固到位。目前伯克希尔存在的非同寻常的权力下放，是官僚主义的理想解药。",[97,489,490],{},"从运营的角度看，伯克希尔不是一家大公司，而是一个大公司群","。在总部我们从未设立委员会，也从未要求我们子公司提交预算(虽然许多公司将其作为重要的内部工具)。我们没有其他公司认为理所当然的法律办公室或各种：人力关系，公共关系，投资者关系，战略，并购，但凡你想得起来的部门。",[14,493,494],{},"当然，我们确实有一个积极的审计职能；没道理成为一个积累问题的傻瓜。然而，在不同寻常的程度上，我们相信我们的经理们会以敏锐的管理意识来管理他们的运营。毕竟，在我们收购他们企业之前，他们就是这么做的。此外，除了偶尔的例外，我们的信任产生的结果，相比于一连串的指令，无尽的检查，层层的官僚机构所取得的成绩更好。如果位置颠倒的话，查理和我尝试以我们所希望的被对待的方式，和我们的经理们互动。",[14,496,497],{},"7，我们的董事认为，我们未来的CEO 们应该来自伯克希尔董事会已经逐步熟悉的内部候选人。我们的董事还认为，新任的CEO 应当相对年轻，所以他或她才能够长期工作。如果伯克希尔的CEO 们平均领导的时间超过十年，那么伯克希尔将运营的最好。(很难教会一只新狗老把戏。)并且他们也不可能在65 岁退休(或者你已经注意到了什么吗？) 在伯克希尔企业并购和为伯克希尔量身定制的大型投资行动中，重要的一点是，我们的交易对手都必须熟悉伯克希尔的CEO，并对其感到满意。建立这种信任并且巩固关系需要时间。然而，回报可能是巨大的。",[14,499,500],{},"董事会和我都相信，我们现在有合适的人选来接替我担任CEO，一位准备在我死后或者辞职第二天就接手这份工作的继任者。在某些重要的方面，这个人将做得比我现在做的还要好。",[14,502,503],{},"8，对伯克希尔而言，投资总是非常重要的，将由多位专家处理。他们将对CEO 报告，因为他们的投资决策，在很大程度上需要和伯克希尔的运营和收购计划相协调。不过，总体而言，我们的投资经理将享有很大的自主权。在这方面，我们未来几十年将处于良好的状态。ToddCombs 和TedWeschler，他们都在伯克希尔的投资团队工作了多年，在所有方面都是一流的，在评估收购方面能够给予CEO 特别的帮助。",[14,505,506],{},"总之，在查理和我离开舞台之后，伯克希尔将被完美地安置。我们有正确的人选，正确的董事们，经理人们以及这些经理人们潜在的继任者。另外，我们的文化深深地根植于他们队伍之中。我们的系统也是可再生的。在很大程度上，好和坏的文化都是自我选择使自己永存。出于很好的理由，那些拥有与我们类似价值观的企业所有者和运营经理人，将继续被伯克希尔作为独一无二的和永远的家所吸引。",[14,508,509],{},"9，如果我没有向另一个让伯克希尔与众不同的关键支持者们致敬，那我就是失职的，他们就是我们的股东。",[14,511,512],{},"伯克希尔的确拥有一个不同于任何其他大型企业的所有者基础。这个事实在去年年会上得到了充分的证实，当时股东们收到一项代理决议：",[308,514,515],{},[14,516,517],{},"决议：鉴于公司拥有的资金超过其所需，并且因为股东们不像巴菲特那样是亿万富翁，董事会应当考虑支付有意义的年度股息。",[14,519,520],{},"该决议的发起股东从未出席会议，所以他的动议没有被正式地提出。尽管如此，代理决议投票已经被统计完毕，并且富有启发性。由相对少数股东持有，每个股东都有很大的经济利益的A 股股东，在分红问题上不出意外地投了\"反对票\"，比例约89 比1。引人注目的投票是我们B 股股东的投票。他们的数量多达数十万，甚至可能超过100 万，他们投的反对票数是660,759,855 票，赞成票是13,927,026，比例约47 比1。",[14,522,523],{},"我们的董事们建议投反对票，但公司没有通过其他方式试图影响股东。尽管如此，98%的有投票权的股份实际上投票说，\"不要给我们红利，而是将所有收益再投资\"。让我们大大小小的股东跟我们的管理哲学保持一致，这既是了不起的，也是非常有益的。",[14,525,526],{},"有你们做合伙人，我真是个幸运的家伙。",[14,528,529],{},"沃伦·巴菲特",[69,531,533],{"id":532},"副董事长的思考过去和未来","副董事长的思考：过去和未来",[14,535,536],{},"致伯克希尔·哈撒韦所有股东：",[14,538,539],{},"我近距离地观察了伯克希尔过去50 年在沃伦·巴菲特领导下不同寻常的成功。现在看上去是合适的时候，让我独立地补充，不论他本人会做出何种的纪念性评论。我将尝试着做5 件事情：",[14,541,542],{},"1，描述其管理体系和政策，使得一家注定失败的小型纺织品企业，转变成现在强大的伯克希尔。",[14,544,545],{},"2，解释管理体系和政策是如何形成。",[14,547,548],{},"3，在某种程度上解释为什么伯克希尔做得如此之好。",[14,550,551],{},"4，如果巴菲特很快卸任，预测不同寻常的好结果是否会保持。",[14,553,554],{},"5，思考伯克希尔过去50 年取得的巨大成就是否对其他地方有所启示。",[14,556,557],{},"巴菲特领导下的伯克希尔的管理体系和政策(这里统称为\"伯克希尔体系\")很早就固定下来，描述如下：",[14,559,560],{},"1，伯克希尔将是一个多元化的企业集团，它仅会拒绝那些无法做出令人满意预测的业务类型。",[14,562,563],{},"2，母公司几乎所有的业务，都将通过独立子公司运营，这些子公司CEO 们将会拥有极大自主权。",[14,565,566],{},"3，企业集团的总部几乎没有任何东西，只有一个小办公室套间，一位董事长，一位CFO 以及数位助手，他们主要帮助CFO 进行审计，内部控制等工作。",[14,568,569],{},"4，伯克希尔子公司总是把财产意外险公司放在显著地位置上。这些保险子公司作为一个集团，预计将适时产生可靠的承保收益，同时产生大量的\"浮存金\"(来自未支付的保险负债)用于投资。",[14,571,572],{},"5，不会有显著的系统性的人事制度，股票期权制度，其他激励制度，退休制度等，因为子公司将有他们自己的制度，而各个子公司之间的制度通常是不同的。",[14,574,575],{},"6，伯克希尔的董事长只会为自己保留很少的工作：",[14,577,578],{},"ⅰ，他将管理几乎所有的证券投资，这些投资通常放在伯克希尔的保险子公司中。",[14,580,581],{},"ⅱ，他将任命所有重要子公司的CEO，并确定他们的报酬标准，并从每个人那里获得继任者的私人推荐人选，以防突然需要继任者。",[14,583,584],{},"ⅲ，在子公司增强其竞争优势之后，他将配置子公司富余的大部分现金，理想的配置是使用这些现金去收购新的子公司。",[14,586,587],{},"ⅳ，如果子公司CEO 有任何需要，他将立即能够被直接联络到，几乎不需要额外的渠道。",[14,589,590],{},"ⅴ，他将在他的年度报告中撰写长篇的，有逻辑的，有用的信件。如果他只是一个被动持有的股东，他会希望这封信是什么样子。并且他将能花几小时的时间，在年度股东大会上回答股东的问题。",[14,592,593],{},"ⅵ，他将努力成为一种文化的典范。这种文化将在很长一段时间为客户、股东和其他在职者提供良好的服务，无论在他卸任前后都是如此。",[14,595,596],{},"ⅶ，他的首要任务将是预留大量时间安静地阅读和思考，特别是那些可能提高他的决策的学习，不论他变得多老。",[14,598,599],{},"ⅷ，他将花费许多时间热情地欣赏他人所取得的成就。",[14,601,602],{},"7，新的子公司将通常用现金收购，而不是新发行的股票。",[14,604,605],{},"8，只要每一美元的留存收益能够为股东创造多于一美元的市场价值，伯克希尔就不会支付股息。",[14,607,608],{},"9，在收购新子公司时，伯克希尔将寻求以合理的价格购买一家董事长能够完全理解的好生意。伯克希尔还希望被收购公司拥有一位优秀的CEO，他有望长期留任，并能在不需要总部帮助的情况下，很好地管理公司。",[14,610,611],{},"10，在选择子公司的CEO 时，伯克希尔将努力确保其有诚信，有才能，有活力并热爱其所在企业和环境。",[14,613,614],{},"11，作为重要的优先行为，伯克希尔将几乎永远不会出售子公司。",[14,616,617],{},"12，伯克希尔几乎不会将子公司的CEO 调配到其他不相关子公司任职。",[14,619,620],{},"13，伯克希尔永远不会仅仅因为年龄问题就迫使子公司的CEO 退休。",[14,622,623],{},"14，伯克希尔将几乎没有未清偿债务，因为它试图保持：(i)在任何状况下几乎完美的信誉；(ii)当出现不同寻常的机会的时候，容易获得可以调配的现金和信贷。",[14,625,626],{},"15，伯克希尔总是对潜在的大公司的卖家很友好。提供这样的业务将快速获得伯克希尔的报价。如果此报价没有促成交易的话，除了董事长和伯克希尔的一两个人，没人会知道这个提议。并且他们将永远不会将此事告诉局外人。",[14,628,629],{},"伯克希尔体系的要素和它们聚集的规模都是如此不同寻常。据我所知，没有任何一家大型企业具备这种要素的一半。伯克希尔是如何恰好拥有一个如此与众不同的企业性格的呢？",[14,631,632],{},"嗯，巴菲特，即使当年仅有34 岁就控制了伯克希尔约45%的股份，并且完全被其他大股东所信任。他能够建立任何他所想要的系统。并且他也做到了，他创造了伯克希尔体系。",[14,634,635],{},"几乎每个要素的选择，都是因为巴菲特相信，在他的领导下，它将有助于伯克希尔成就的最大化。他并没有试图为其他的企业创造一个都适用的系统。事实上，伯克希尔的子公司们并不需要在自己的运营中使用伯克希尔的系统。而且即使采用不同的系统，一些公司也很繁盛。",[14,637,638],{},"巴菲特设计伯克希尔体系的时候的目标是什么？",[14,640,641],{},"嗯，这些年来我总结出几个重要的因素：",[14,643,644],{},[97,645,646],{},"1，他特别希望从他自己开始，不断最大限度地发挥体系中最重要人员的理性，技能和奉献精神。",[14,648,649],{},[97,650,651],{},"2，他希望在任何地方都能取得双赢的结果，比如说，用忠诚待人的方式来获得忠诚。",[14,653,654],{},[97,655,656],{},"3，他希望做出最大化长期结果的决策，通常从任职时间足够长并承担决策后果的决策者那里寻求答案。",[14,658,659],{},[97,660,661],{},"4，他希望尽最大限度地减少来自总部庞大官僚机构几乎不可避免的负面影响。",[14,663,664],{},[97,665,666],{},"5，他希望像本杰明格雷厄姆教授那样，亲自为传播智慧做出贡献。",[14,668,669],{},"当巴菲特开发伯克希尔体系的时候，他是否预见到了所有后来发生的好处？并没有。巴菲特通过不断实践的进化，偶然获得了一些好处。但是，当他看到有用的结果时，他强化了它们的成因。",[14,671,672],{},"为什么伯克希尔在巴菲特的领导下表现得如此出色？",[14,674,675],{},"我只想到四大因素：1，巴菲特自身的建设性特质。2，伯克希尔体系的建设性特质。3，好运气。4，一些股东和其他崇拜者(包括一些媒体人士)，异常强烈且富有传染性的忠诚。我相信这四个因素都存在且都有帮助。但是沉重的负担是由建设性的特质，不寻常的忠诚，和他们的互动关系所承载的。",[14,677,678],{},"特别是巴菲特决定将他的业务类型限定于少数几类，并最大限度地专注于这些业务，并坚持这样做了50 年，这是一个lollapalooza 效应的结果。巴菲特的成功和Roger Federer 成为网球高手的原因是一样的。",[14,680,681,682,685],{},"事实上，巴菲特使用了著名篮球教练JohnWooden 的赢球方法。",[97,683,684],{},"Wooden 在学会将所有的上场时间分配给他最好的七名球员之后，经常获胜","。采用这种方式，对手总是面对他最好的球员，而不是次好的。并且，随着额外的上场时间，最好的球员比正常情况下提升更多。",[14,687,688],{},"而巴菲特的情况远远超越了Wooden，因为在他的情况下，技能的练习集中于一个人而不是七个，50 年来随着年龄的增长，他的技能不断提升，而不是像篮球运动员那样不断退化。",[14,690,691],{},"此外，通过将如此多才华和权力集中在重要子公司长期任职的CEO 身上，巴菲特也创造了强大的Wooden式效应。并且此类效应提高了CEO 的技能和子公司的业绩。然后，随着伯克希尔体系授予更多子公司及其CEO所渴望的自主权，以及伯克希尔变得成功且著名，这些结果吸引更多更好的子公司和更好的CEO，加入到伯克希尔大家庭。而更好的子公司和CEO 需要总部更少的关注，这创造了一个通常被称为\"良性循环\"的局面。",[14,693,694],{},"伯克希尔将财产意外险公司作为重要的子公司的结果有多好？不可思议地好。伯克希尔的雄心是无比强烈，即使如此，它依然得偿所愿。财产意外险公司通常投资于价值与股东权益相当的普通股，伯克希尔保险子公司皆是如此。在过去50 年里，标普500 指数每年提供约10%的税前收益，创造了重要的推力。",[14,696,697],{},"并且，在巴菲特时代早期的几十年里，伯克希尔保险子公司内的普通股表现大幅地超越指数，正如巴菲特所期待的那样。后来，当伯克希尔庞大的持股规模和税收考虑，导致超越指数部分的回报变得不再重要时(或许不是永远如此)，其他更好的优势出现了。阿吉特·贾因从零开始创造了一个庞大的再保险公司，产生了巨量的\"浮存金\"和大量的承保收益。整个GEICO 保险并入了伯克希尔，随后GEICO 的市场份额提高为原来的四倍。还有，其他的伯克希尔保险业务也大幅度地提高，这主要得益于企业的声誉优势，承保纪律，寻找并留在良好的利基市场，并招募和留住优秀的人才。",[14,699,700],{},"后来，随着伯克希尔几乎独特且相当可靠的企业个性和庞大的规模，变得广为人知，它的保险子公司获得并抓住了许多其他公司无法获得的有吸引力的机会，去购买非公开发行的有价证券。这些有价证券的大多数具有固定的到期期限，并产生良好的投资回报。",[14,702,703],{},"伯克希尔在保险领域取得的惊人成绩并非天生的。通常情况下，即使管理得当，意外险业务也会取得平庸的业绩。这样的业绩几乎没有什么助益。伯克希尔的更好业绩是如此惊人地巨大，以至于我认为，如果巴菲特现在回到一个小公司重新开始，都难以再次创造它，纵使巴菲特保持他的智慧并且恢复年轻。",[14,705,706],{},"伯克希尔因为成为多元化的企业集团而遭遇困境了吗？没有，更广泛的业务范围，有效的扩大了它的投资机会。并且，巴菲特的技能避免了其他地方常见的负面影响。",[14,708,709],{},"为什么伯克希尔倾向于用现金购买公司，而不是自己的股票？嗯，很难用任何其他东西来换取伯克希尔的股票，这些东西的价值无法和放弃的伯克希尔股票一样高。",[14,711,712],{},"为什么伯克希尔收购的非保险业务对伯克希尔的股东来说效果非常好，而通常此类收购对于其他收购方的股东而言却不利？嗯，从收购设计上来说，伯克希尔有方法论上的优势，以补充它更好的机会。它从未在像\"收购部门\"那样在压力下进行收购。并且它从不依赖于\"顾问\"的建议，那些建议肯定会对交易产生偏见。而且巴菲特从不盲目自信，正如他过度低估了自己的专业知识，而他比大多数公司高管更清楚什么在商业中有效，什么无效，这得益于他作为一个被动投资者的长期经验。最后，即使伯克希尔获得了比其他公司更好的机会，巴菲特也经常表现出异于常人的耐心等待，很少购买。举例说来，在控制伯克希尔的前十年里，他看着一个公司(纺织)走向死亡，两家新公司进入，净增一家公司。",[14,714,715],{},"在巴菲特的领导下，伯克希尔犯了哪些重大错误？嗯，虽然主动犯下的错误很常见，但几乎所有巨大的错误都是没有购买，包括没有购买沃尔玛的股票，而这笔投资肯定会非常成功。错过的错误非常重要的。如果伯克希尔抓住几次机会，其账面价值至少会多出500 亿美元，但它还不足够聪明，无法将其视为几乎确定的事情。",[14,717,718],{},"在我清单上倒数第二项任务是：预测如果巴菲特很快离开，伯克希尔是否会继续取得不同寻常的好业绩。答案是肯定的。伯克希尔在其子公司中拥有许多基于长期竞争优势的商业势头。另外，其铁路和公用事业子公司在新的固定资产投资上提供大量令人满意的机会。而且其旗下许多子公司正在进行明智的\"补强型收购\"。",[14,720,721],{},"如果大部分的伯克希尔体系仍保持原样，那么现在所展现的势头和机会是如此巨大，以至于即使(1)巴菲特明天离开；(2)他的继任者都是能力平庸的人；(3)伯克希尔不再收购大型企业，伯克希尔也将几乎肯定会在很长一段时间内优于一般的企业。",[14,723,724],{},"但是，在这个巴菲特很快离开的假设之下，他的继任者不会是\"仅有平庸能力\"的人。例如，Ajit Jain 和Greg Abel 是已经证明他们表现的人，他们的表现可能将会被低估的描述为\"世界级\"。如果让我选择描述，我会用\"世界领先\"。在一些重要的方面，他们中每一个都是比巴菲特更好的企业管理者。并且我相信Jain 和Abel 都不会(1)离开伯克希尔，不论其他人开价如何；(2)希望伯克希尔体系大幅改变。",[14,726,727],{},"我也不认为，对新企业的理想收购将会随着巴菲特的离开而结束。鉴于伯克希尔规模如此庞大，以及激进投资主义时代到来，我认为一些理想的收购机会将会来到，并且伯克希尔的600 亿美元现金将有益地减少。",[14,729,730],{},"我最后的一项任务是思考，伯克希尔过去50 年取得的巨大成绩是否对其他方面有所助益。",[14,732,733],{},"答案显然是肯定的。在巴菲特的早期，伯克希尔面临一个艰巨的任务：将一个小笔资金变成一个巨大而有用的企业。它通过避免官僚主义和长期依赖一位深思熟虑的领导人的方式，解决了这个问题，因为他不断改进，并且吸引了更多像他一样的人。相比之下，典型的大公司体系中，总部有很多官僚机构，CEO 在大约59 岁入职，此后很少停下来安静思考，且很快因固定的退休年龄而被迫离职。",[14,735,736],{},"我相信，伯克希尔体系的版本应该被其他地方更频繁地尝试，官僚主义最糟糕特征应该更频繁地被像癌症般对待。George Marshall 创造了一个修正官僚主义的好例子，当时他从国会获得了无视资历选择将军的权力，从而帮助赢得了二战。",[14,738,739],{},"谨此陈辞 查理·芒格",[741,742],"hr",{},{"title":744,"searchDepth":745,"depth":745,"links":746},"",2,[],"访谈与文章",null,"巴菲特回顾伯克希尔50周年历程，从1964年与Seabury Stanton的恩怨开始，阐述长期主义经营哲学与未来展望。","md",{},true,145,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fbo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai",{"title":5,"description":749},"伯克希尔50 周年：过去、现在和未来｜巴菲特","bo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fbo-ke-xi-er-50-zhou-nian-guo-qu-xian-zai-he-wei-lai","c0kzYeU_fy1it7sSMAlwninLI11FEcWdzpBu4_8e-F4","buffett",[762,767,770,774,777,780,783,787,790,793,797,800,803,807,810,813,817,820,823,827,830,833,837,840,843,847,850,853,857,860,863,867,870,873,877,880,883,887,890,893,897,900,903,907,910,913,917,920,923,927,930,933,937,940,943,947,950,953,957,960,963,967,970,973,977,980,983,987,990,993,997,1000,1003,1007,1010,1013,1017,1020,1023,1027,1030,1033,1037,1040,1043,1047,1050,1053,1057,1060,1063,1067,1070,1073,1077,1080,1083,1087,1090,1093,1097,1100,1104,1107,1111,1114,1118,1121,1125,1128,1132,1135,1139,1142,1146,1149,1153,1156,1160,1163,1167,1170,1174,1177,1181,1184,1188,1191,1195,1198,1202,1205,1209,1212,1216,1219,1223,1226,1230,1233,1237,1240,1244,1247,1251,1254,1258,1261,1265,1268,1272,1275,1279,1282,1286,1289,1293,1296,1300,1303,1307,1310,1314,1317,1321,1324,1328,1331,1335,1338,1342,1345,1349,1352,1356,1359,1363,1366,1370,1373,1377,1380,1384,1387,1391,1394,1398,1401,1405,1408,1412,1415,1419,1422,1426,1429,1433,1436,1440,1443,1447,1450,1454,1457,1461,1464,1468,1471,1475,1478,1482,1485,1489,1492,1496,1499,1503,1506,1510,1513,1517,1520,1524,1527,1531,1534,1538,1541,1545,1548,1552,1555,1559,1562,1566,1570,1574,1578,1582,1586,1590,1594,1598,1602,1606,1610,1614,1618,1622,1626,1630,1634,1638,1642,1646,1650,1654,1658,1662,1666,1670,1674,1678,1682,1686,1690,1694,1698,1702,1706,1710,1714,1718,1722,1726,1730,1734,1738,1739,1743,1747,1751,1755,1759],{"title":763,"slug":764,"category":765,"order":766},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":768,"slug":769,"category":747,"order":766},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":771,"slug":772,"category":773,"order":766},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":775,"slug":776,"category":765,"order":745},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":778,"slug":779,"category":747,"order":745},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":781,"slug":782,"category":773,"order":745},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":784,"slug":785,"category":765,"order":786},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":788,"slug":789,"category":747,"order":786},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":791,"slug":792,"category":773,"order":786},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":794,"slug":795,"category":765,"order":796},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":798,"slug":799,"category":747,"order":796},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":801,"slug":802,"category":773,"order":796},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":804,"slug":805,"category":765,"order":806},"1960 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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":1140,"slug":1141,"category":747,"order":1138},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":1143,"slug":1144,"category":765,"order":1145},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":1147,"slug":1148,"category":747,"order":1145},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":1150,"slug":1151,"category":765,"order":1152},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":1154,"slug":1155,"category":747,"order":1152},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":1157,"slug":1158,"category":765,"order":1159},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":1161,"slug":1162,"category":747,"order":1159},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":1164,"slug":1165,"category":765,"order":1166},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":1168,"slug":1169,"category":747,"order":1166},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":1171,"slug":1172,"category":765,"order":1173},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":1175,"slug":1176,"category":747,"order":1173},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1178,"slug":1179,"category":765,"order":1180},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":1182,"slug":1183,"category":747,"order":1180},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1185,"slug":1186,"category":765,"order":1187},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":1189,"slug":1190,"category":747,"order":1187},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":1192,"slug":1193,"category":765,"order":1194},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":1196,"slug":1197,"category":747,"order":1194},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":1199,"slug":1200,"category":765,"order":1201},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":1203,"slug":1204,"category":747,"order":1201},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":1206,"slug":1207,"category":765,"order":1208},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":1210,"slug":1211,"category":747,"order":1208},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1213,"slug":1214,"category":765,"order":1215},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":1217,"slug":1218,"category":747,"order":1215},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":1220,"slug":1221,"category":765,"order":1222},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":1224,"slug":1225,"category":747,"order":1222},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":1227,"slug":1228,"category":765,"order":1229},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":1231,"slug":1232,"category":747,"order":1229},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1234,"slug":1235,"category":765,"order":1236},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":1238,"slug":1239,"category":747,"order":1236},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":1241,"slug":1242,"category":765,"order":1243},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":1245,"slug":1246,"category":747,"order":1243},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":1248,"slug":1249,"category":765,"order":1250},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":1252,"slug":1253,"category":747,"order":1250},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":1255,"slug":1256,"category":765,"order":1257},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":1259,"slug":1260,"category":747,"order":1257},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":1262,"slug":1263,"category":765,"order":1264},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":1266,"slug":1267,"category":747,"order":1264},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1269,"slug":1270,"category":765,"order":1271},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":1273,"slug":1274,"category":747,"order":1271},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1276,"slug":1277,"category":765,"order":1278},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":1280,"slug":1281,"category":747,"order":1278},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1283,"slug":1284,"category":765,"order":1285},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1287,"slug":1288,"category":747,"order":1285},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1290,"slug":1291,"category":765,"order":1292},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1294,"slug":1295,"category":747,"order":1292},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1297,"slug":1298,"category":765,"order":1299},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1301,"slug":1302,"category":747,"order":1299},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1304,"slug":1305,"category":765,"order":1306},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1308,"slug":1309,"category":747,"order":1306},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1311,"slug":1312,"category":765,"order":1313},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1315,"slug":1316,"category":747,"order":1313},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1318,"slug":1319,"category":765,"order":1320},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1322,"slug":1323,"category":747,"order":1320},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1325,"slug":1326,"category":765,"order":1327},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1329,"slug":1330,"category":747,"order":1327},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1332,"slug":1333,"category":765,"order":1334},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1336,"slug":1337,"category":747,"order":1334},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1339,"slug":1340,"category":765,"order":1341},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1343,"slug":1344,"category":747,"order":1341},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1346,"slug":1347,"category":765,"order":1348},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1350,"slug":1351,"category":747,"order":1348},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1353,"slug":1354,"category":765,"order":1355},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1357,"slug":1358,"category":747,"order":1355},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1360,"slug":1361,"category":765,"order":1362},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1364,"slug":1365,"category":747,"order":1362},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1367,"slug":1368,"category":765,"order":1369},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1371,"slug":1372,"category":747,"order":1369},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1374,"slug":1375,"category":765,"order":1376},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1378,"slug":1379,"category":747,"order":1376},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1381,"slug":1382,"category":765,"order":1383},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1385,"slug":1386,"category":747,"order":1383},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1388,"slug":1389,"category":765,"order":1390},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1392,"slug":1393,"category":747,"order":1390},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1395,"slug":1396,"category":765,"order":1397},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1399,"slug":1400,"category":747,"order":1397},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1402,"slug":1403,"category":765,"order":1404},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1406,"slug":1407,"category":747,"order":1404},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1409,"slug":1410,"category":765,"order":1411},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1413,"slug":1414,"category":747,"order":1411},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1416,"slug":1417,"category":765,"order":1418},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1420,"slug":1421,"category":747,"order":1418},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1423,"slug":1424,"category":765,"order":1425},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1427,"slug":1428,"category":747,"order":1425},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1430,"slug":1431,"category":765,"order":1432},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1434,"slug":1435,"category":747,"order":1432},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1437,"slug":1438,"category":765,"order":1439},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1441,"slug":1442,"category":747,"order":1439},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1444,"slug":1445,"category":765,"order":1446},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1448,"slug":1449,"category":747,"order":1446},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1451,"slug":1452,"category":765,"order":1453},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1455,"slug":1456,"category":747,"order":1453},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1458,"slug":1459,"category":765,"order":1460},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1462,"slug":1463,"category":747,"order":1460},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1465,"slug":1466,"category":765,"order":1467},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1469,"slug":1470,"category":747,"order":1467},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1472,"slug":1473,"category":765,"order":1474},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1476,"slug":1477,"category":747,"order":1474},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1479,"slug":1480,"category":765,"order":1481},"2016 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