[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":3822},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":2307,"library-sidebar-dao":3313,"library-sidebar-models":3590},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":2293,"date":2294,"description":2295,"extension":2296,"meta":2297,"navigation":2298,"order":2299,"path":2300,"seo":2301,"seoDescription":2295,"seoTitle":2302,"slug":2303,"stem":2304,"__hash__":2305,"_collection":2306},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Finvestment-logic\u002Fduanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian.md","投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":2285},"minimark",[9,14,35,40,43,49,52,55,63,69,72,75,78,81,84,98,104,115,118,121,127,130,133,136,144,147,150,153,156,159,164,167,172,175,180,183,191,194,199,214,221,224,229,245,248,253,256,259,264,268,273,282,288,296,306,309,314,316,319,324,336,344,350,362,364,369,371,373,378,388,391,398,404,413,420,423,426,432,435,438,441,444,452,461,464,467,470,473,476,479,482,485,493,496,499,501,505,508,514,517,523,526,535,539,542,547,550,553,556,564,569,572,581,587,589,593,602,612,615,624,627,636,639,644,647,652,655,663,666,671,677,683,686,692,705,710,713,718,721,726,732,737,740,743,751,756,761,764,767,773,776,784,790,793,798,801,814,817,822,825,828,833,836,841,846,849,852,855,858,861,870,873,878,881,884,889,892,897,900,905,908,913,916,919,924,927,930,935,938,943,946,951,954,959,962,971,974,984,987,992,995,998,1003,1006,1011,1014,1019,1027,1036,1039,1042,1047,1050,1055,1058,1063,1066,1070,1073,1078,1081,1086,1089,1094,1097,1102,1105,1110,1113,1116,1119,1122,1127,1130,1135,1138,1148,1151,1156,1164,1169,1172,1177,1180,1185,1188,1196,1199,1204,1207,1210,1213,1216,1221,1230,1233,1236,1239,1242,1245,1248,1251,1254,1257,1260,1270,1273,1276,1281,1284,1287,1290,1295,1298,1303,1309,1314,1317,1320,1326,1331,1334,1337,1342,1345,1350,1353,1358,1361,1370,1373,1376,1387,1390,1395,1398,1403,1406,1409,1414,1417,1422,1425,1430,1436,1441,1444,1447,1452,1457,1460,1463,1466,1471,1474,1479,1482,1490,1493,1498,1501,1504,1509,1512,1517,1520,1525,1528,1533,1536,1543,1549,1552,1555,1560,1563,1566,1575,1581,1586,1589,1597,1600,1605,1608,1611,1616,1622,1625,1630,1635,1638,1641,1646,1651,1659,1667,1670,1678,1684,1687,1695,1702,1705,1710,1715,1718,1723,1726,1734,1737,1740,1745,1748,1753,1756,1759,1765,1768,1776,1779,1793,1796,1801,1806,1813,1816,1823,1828,1833,1839,1844,1850,1855,1858,1863,1868,1873,1879,1884,1890,1893,1898,1901,1907,1910,1915,1918,1927,1930,1938,1941,1950,1953,1958,1961,1966,1969,1975,1978,1981,1989,1992,1995,2000,2003,2009,2012,2017,2022,2027,2030,2035,2038,2043,2046,2049,2052,2057,2060,2069,2072,2075,2080,2085,2088,2097,2100,2105,2108,2113,2116,2121,2126,2129,2135,2145,2150,2157,2168,2177,2188,2196,2199,2204,2207,2213,2216,2219,2224,2227,2232,2240,2243,2246,2251,2254,2257,2262,2269,2274,2277,2280],[10,11,13],"h1",{"id":12},"第一章-投资理念","第一章 投资理念",[15,16,17,21,22],"p",{},[18,19,20],"strong",{},"段永平："," 我理解的投资归纳起来就是：",[18,23,24,25,30,34],{},"买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买公司的未来",[26,27,29],"a",{"href":28},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fxianjinliu","现金流",[26,31,33],{"href":32},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fzhexian","折现","，句号！",[36,37,39],"h2",{"id":38},"第1节-投资的信仰","第1节 投资的信仰",[15,41,42],{},"这里说的信仰不是形而上的东西。",[15,44,45,46,48],{},"我理解的投资归纳起来就是：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买公司的未来",[26,47,29],{"href":28},"折现，句号！",[15,50,51],{},"这就是我说的所谓的信仰的意思，或者说我是从骨子里相信，不会因为任何影响而动摇。",[15,53,54],{},"很多人一讲到投资就会马上冒出很多大家都似懂非懂的术语，大概原因就是因为没有这个信仰。",[15,56,57,58,62],{},"其实投资就是",[26,59,61],{"href":60},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fjiazhitouzi","价值投资","的意思，不然投资投的是啥？",[15,64,65,66,68],{},"公司价值是什么？就是公司未来",[26,67,29],{"href":28},"的折现啊。",[15,70,71],{},"未来是多久？就是直到永远的意思。",[15,73,74],{},"永远是多久？就是到公司结束为止。",[15,76,77],{},"公司结束是什么意思？就是包括卖掉在内的所有可能。",[15,79,80],{},"记得马克思说过：价格围绕价值上下波动。买股票花的是价格，买的是价值。",[15,82,83],{},"其实我对投资的理解就这些，其他都是这几句话衍生出来的。",[15,85,86,87,89,90,94,95,97],{},"简单不？对，简单但绝不容易！不懂企业的人绝对没办法看懂未来",[26,88,29],{"href":28},"。所谓懂的人往往也只能看懂自己",[26,91,93],{"href":92},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fnengliquan","能力圈","内的很少很少企业的未来",[26,96,29],{"href":28},"折现，而且还一定是毛估估滴。",[15,99,100],{},[101,102,103],"em",{},"学会简单其实就不简单--微博里看到的一句话，和我的简单但绝不容易的意思差不多。",[15,105,106,107,109,110],{},"未来",[26,108,29],{"href":28},"折现的公式？ ",[101,111,106,112,114],{},[26,113,29],{"href":28},"折现只是一种思维方式，只有在自己能力圈范围内的公司，投资人才能毛估估看明白。没人真用公式的，至少剩者都是不用公式的。（说自己有公式还有参数的都是不懂甚至可能是骗人的，别理他们）",[15,116,117],{},"很难吗？还好吧。我自己从事企业经营只有10多年，之后开始投资到现在也差不多10年。在这10年里在有兴趣的企业里我大致看懂了不到10家企业（被排除的不算，投错的不算）重手投了5家，差不多两年一家，没想象的那么难吧？",[15,119,120],{},"什么，你投的企业比我多多了？那你要小心了，一般而言，超出一定量以后，投的企业越多赚的越少。",[15,122,123,124,126],{},"怎么才能看懂企业或者叫看懂企业的未来",[26,125,29],{"href":28},"？",[15,128,129],{},"有句话叫八仙过海，各显神通。不过我喜欢巴菲特说的那个办法，从来没看过别人的，也没有兴趣看。我觉得真看懂了老巴的东西的人大概是不会对别的人的投资办法感兴趣的，觉得我武断的人请先看懂巴菲特的东西哈。",[15,131,132],{},"说自己一半巴菲特一半索罗斯的意思实际上是说自己既不懂巴菲特也不懂索罗斯。（这句话和老巴说的多少费雪多少格拉汉姆的意思不同）",[15,134,135],{},"投钱（我觉得这里不叫投资的好）的办法有很多，一般而言，知道的越多，赚的越少。不然大学教这个的就应该赚的最多。",[15,137,138,139,143],{},"老巴童鞋说",[26,140,142],{"href":141},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fshangyemoshi","生意模式","最重要。我自己大概对这句话想了好几年了，还在继续想，但确实越来越感觉到老巴这个说法有道理。和老巴吃顿饭没白吃，这句话就已经值个100顿饭了吧（其实远远不止哈）？",[15,145,146],{},"什么是生意模式？我也说不清楚，也许大学里的教授能给个文点的定义吧。但是，我觉得我大致知道那到底是什么意思。",[15,148,149],{},"如果你还不明白什么叫生意模式的话，那就看看老巴的那几篇在几个大学的演讲。",[15,151,152],{},"还没懂？那看看喜诗糖果，看看可口可乐、看看比亚迪、看看苹果、看看航空公司、看看那些做太阳能晶片的“光伏企业”......",[15,154,155],{},"还没懂？那重头来，接着再看。10-20年之内看不懂都可以用这个办法，就是“重头来，接着再看”。",[15,157,158],{},"20年以后还是看不懂怎么办？那20年以后再说了。（2012-06-24）",[15,160,161],{},[18,162,163],{},"问答：",[15,165,166],{},"01．网友：段大哥自己是不是无神论者？",[15,168,169,171],{},[18,170,20],{}," 我不迷信但我有信仰。（2016-12-02）",[15,173,174],{},"网友：投资是否有信仰？",[15,176,177,179],{},[18,178,20],{}," 投资的信仰指的是：相信长期而言股市是称重机，对没有信仰的人而言，股市永远是投票器。（2013-05-17）",[15,181,182],{},"网友X：有时间能开一篇您对迷信和信仰的个人经验和故事？特别想听听您的这些小故事。",[15,184,185,187,188,190],{},[18,186,20],{}," 我说的信仰就是你骨子里真的相信的东西，是不会被某些事情动摇的。比如长期利润及净",[26,189,29],{"href":28},"好的公司股价早晚会跟上来等等。（2017-02-27）",[15,192,193],{},"02．网友：比尔盖茨说巴菲特有很强烈的宗教信仰感，这让我挺意外的，我记得有个访谈里，您说您对宗教的态度和巴菲特差不多，您了解的巴菲特对于宗教是怎样的呢？",[15,195,196,198],{},[18,197,20],{}," 我理解“宗教”大概就是信仰的意思，就是说心里有些“must believe”的东西。我的宗教态度确实和老巴一样，我们都信仰巴菲特对投资的理解---“买股票就是买公司”。“买股票就是买公司”这句话会说的人非常多，但我几乎没见过真的骨子里真的理解并相信这句话的--我知道的人里面大概不超过5个（包括巴菲特和芒格在内）--当然，这是因为我知道的人很少的缘故。（2013-04-11）",[15,200,201,203,204,208,209,213],{},[18,202,20],{}," 其实每个人都有一颗",[26,205,207],{"href":206},"\u002Flibrary\u002Ftouji","投机","的心，所以才需要信仰。我对信仰的理解就是“",[26,210,212],{"href":211},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","做对的事情","”，或者说知道是“不对的事情”就别做了。人们热爱做“不对的事情”是因为这类事情往往有短期诱惑。（2013-02-01）",[15,215,216,217,220],{},"如果说宗教情怀指的是信仰，信仰指的是要“做对的事情”，“做对的事情”就是明知错的事情就不做的话，我同意这个说法。巴菲特之所以能够如此厉害，最重要的一点就是他能坚持不做他认为不对的事情。要坚持这点其实非常不容易，因为往往“不对的事情”往往是有短期诱惑的。（",[18,218,219],{},"2013-02-02"," ）",[15,222,223],{},"03．网友：我没有信仰，更糟糕的是我不在如何改变。",[15,225,226,228],{},[18,227,20],{}," You must believe. ---乌龟大师",[15,230,231,232,236,237,241,242,220],{},"要相信的是：做对的事情最后会有好结果，或者说做错的事情最后会有大麻烦。至于",[26,233,235],{"href":234},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","把事情做对","则是个过程，有时候快有时候慢，需要投资者",[26,238,240],{"href":239},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fnaixin","耐心","等待。（",[18,243,244],{},"2012-05-20",[15,246,247],{},"04．网友：个人觉得说不定大哥的某些看法和观点也会慢慢有变化，就像十年前你也许还不怎么信巴菲特，现在就比较相信，不知将来会怎样？",[15,249,250,252],{},[18,251,20],{}," 我从看到“巴菲特”第一分钟就开始相信巴菲特了，从来没动摇过。心中没有“巴菲特”的人是很难相信“巴菲特”的，而且谁说都没用。（2010-07-04）",[15,254,255],{},"05．网友：当我第一次看到您讲的“买股票就是买公司”的话时，我的内心就有一种被震撼的感觉，真的是这样。当悟到这个道理后，内心的喜悦比得到多少钱还高兴。我曾经试着把这个理念讲给我的几个朋友，但是我发现很难，怎么讲他们都觉得这不可能，还给我讲了很多什么大资金怎么样了，散户又怎么样了，行情又怎么样了，这一波过去又怎么样了，......等等之类的“炒”的概念。",[15,257,258],{},"我最近突然有个感悟：投资这个东西，可能是天生的，这个东西可能是学不会的，正如您说，懂的人一说就懂了，不懂的人怎么说都不懂。其实也没有什么要问，就是感觉我们是同类，不说一下不舒服。顺便感谢一下大道，各方面的受益都很好，非常感谢！",[15,260,261,263],{},[18,262,20],{}," 道的东西确实难教，必须要靠自己悟。心中无道的人你怎么说也是没用的。大多数人都是不容易open的，很难接受跟自己以前认识不同的东西。我有时候感觉很奇怪的是，如果是个已经很成功的人，不太接受新东西我也能理解，因为人家已经有了足够成功的经历和理解了。现实中我看到的情况刚好相反，那些不open的人常常就是那些不太成功的人。举个例子，炒了30年股票（也许10年，20年）都不赚钱的人，当我说老巴时，人家居然会说……布拉布拉的。（2019-04-11）",[36,265,267],{"id":266},"第2节-投资是什么","第2节 投资是什么？",[15,269,270],{},[18,271,272],{},"做对的事情，把事情做对！",[15,274,275,278,279],{},[18,276,277],{},"基本版"," ：",[18,280,281],{},"《投资是什么》",[15,283,284,285,287],{},"投资就是买未来",[26,286,29],{"href":28},"。",[15,289,290,291,293,294,220],{},"所谓能看懂公司就是能看懂其未来",[26,292,29],{"href":28},"。（",[18,295,212],{},[15,297,298,299,301,302,305],{},"所有所谓有关投资的说法实际上都是在讨论如何看懂",[26,300,29],{"href":28},"的问题。（",[18,303,304],{},"如何把事情做对"," ）（2012-04-05）",[307,308],"hr",{},[15,310,311],{},[18,312,313],{},"说明版：《投资是什么》",[15,315,272],{},[15,317,318],{},"投资是什么？",[15,320,321],{},[18,322,323],{},"说明版：",[15,325,326,327,329,330,332,333,335],{},"买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来",[26,328,29],{"href":28},"。这里",[26,331,29],{"href":28},"指的是净",[26,334,29],{"href":28},"，未来指的是公司的整个生命周期。",[15,337,338,339,343],{},"折现率实际上是相对于投资人的",[26,340,342],{"href":341},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fjihuichengben","机会成本","而言的。最低的机会成本就是无风险回报率，比如美国国债的利率。",[15,345,290,346,293,348,220],{},[26,347,29],{"href":28},[18,349,212],{},[15,351,298,352,301,354,356,357,361],{},[26,353,29],{"href":28},[18,355,304],{}," ），比如生意模式、",[26,358,360],{"href":359},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fhuchenghe","护城河","、能力圈、等等。（2012-04-05）",[307,363],{},[15,365,366],{},[18,367,368],{},"啰嗦版：《投资是什么》",[15,370,272],{},[15,372,318],{},[15,374,375],{},[18,376,377],{},"啰嗦版：",[15,379,326,380,382,383,332,385,387],{},[26,381,29],{"href":28},"（的折现）。这里",[26,384,29],{"href":28},[26,386,29],{"href":28},"，未来指的是公司的整个生命周期，不是3年，也不是5年。",[15,389,390],{},"折现率实际上是相对于投资人的机会成本而言的。最低的机会成本就是无风险回报率，比如美国国债的利率。有些人把自己生意中有限的资金投到股市里实际上往往是不合算的，因为其自己的生意获利往往比股市里的平均回报高。当然，多余资金投入无可非议（听说国内某网络公司买了很多苹果的股票，这属于无可非议型的）。可我确实看到不少公司贷着款还要买股票，看不懂啊。",[15,392,290,393,395,396,220],{},[26,394,29],{"href":28},"（的折现）。（",[18,397,212],{},[15,399,400,401,403],{},"所谓未来",[26,402,29],{"href":28},"（的折现）只是个思维方式，千万不要去套公式，因为没人可以真的确定公式中的变量，所有假设可能都是不靠谱的。",[15,405,406,407,409,410,412],{},"个人观点：其实区分所谓是不是‘价值投资’的最重要，也许是唯一的点就是在‘投资者’是不是在买未来",[26,408,29],{"href":28},"（的折现）。事实上我的确见到很多人买股票时的理由很多时候都和未来",[26,411,29],{"href":28},"无关，但却和别的东西有关，比如市场怎么看，比如打新股一定赚钱，比如重组的概念，比如呵呵，电视里那些个分析员天天在讲的那些东西。我有时会面带微笑看看cnbc的节目，那些主持人经常说着满嘴的专业名词，但不知道为什么说了这么多年也不知道他们自己在说啥。",[15,414,298,415,301,417,419],{},[26,416,29],{"href":28},[18,418,304],{}," ），比如生意模式、护城河、能力圈、等等。",[15,421,422],{},"在巴菲特这里我学到的最重要的东西就是生意模式。以前虽然也知道生意模式重要，但往往是和其他很多重要的东西混在一起看的。当年老巴特别提醒我，应该首先看生意模式，这几年下来慢慢觉得确实应该如此。",[15,424,425],{},"护城河实际上我觉得是生意模式中的一部分，好的生意模式往往具有很宽的护城河。",[15,427,428,429,431],{},"好的生意模式往往是好的未来",[26,430,29],{"href":28},"的保障。",[15,433,434],{},"知道自己的能力圈有多大往往比自己能力圈有多大要重要的多！",[15,436,437],{},"我觉得margin of safety实际上应该指的是能力圈而不仅仅是价格。",[15,439,440],{},"在自己能力圈内的生意自己往往容易懂的多，对别人的不确定性往往对自己是很确定的。比如当年我投网易时，市场不看好的原因是很多人觉得游戏这个市场不是很大。而我自己由于在这个行业里时间很长，所以很确定这个市场非常大（但也不知道到底有多大，事实上最后的结果比我看到的还要大）。",[15,442,443],{},"不要轻易去‘扩大’自己的能力圈。搞懂一个生意往往是需要很多年的，不要因为看到一两个概念就轻易跳进自己不熟悉的领域或地方，不然早晚会栽的。比如有的朋友跳进印度市场，有的朋友跳进日本市场。",[15,445,446,447,451],{},"我总是假设市场绝大多数情况下是非常聪明的，除非我发现市场确实错了。（这句话是针对‘逆向操作’说的。逆向思维很重要，但逆向操作和随波逐流都是不可取的。最重要的是",[26,448,450],{"href":449},"\u002Flibrary\u002Flixing","理性","的独立思考能力）",[15,453,454,455,457,458,460],{},"很多人说很难看懂未来",[26,456,29],{"href":28},"。其实绝大多数公司的未来",[26,459,29],{"href":28},"我也是看不懂的。看不懂的就不碰。一年两年或许更久的时间里总会有目标出现的。有些公司的生意模式很好，但股价有时候太贵，那就只能等了。好在这些年来一直如此，每隔些年就来个股灾，往往那时好公司也会跟着稀里哗啦的。",[15,462,463],{},"对于大多数不太了解生意的人而言，千万不要以为股市是个可以赚快钱的地方。长期来讲，股市上亏钱的人总是多过赚钱的人的。想赌运气的人还不如去买彩票，起码自己知道中的机会小，不会下重注。",[15,465,466],{},"也有人说股场就是赌场。事实上，对把股场当赌场的人们而言，股场确实就是赌场，常赌必输！",[15,468,469],{},"用我这个办法投资一生可能会失去无数机会，但犯大错的机会也很少（但依然没办法避免犯错）。",[15,471,472],{},"我经常听见有人在讲哪只哪只股票赚了几倍的故事，可他们就是不说总的成绩，你懂的。",[15,474,475],{},"顺便感谢一下自助餐先生。凡是觉得我写的这点东西有帮助的人都应该多看看他老人家的东西，我能讲的他都讲过好多次了。",[15,477,478],{},"想到哪写到哪，主要是为了能随时提醒自己。",[15,480,481],{},"有人问如何避免以为看懂实际又错了的问题，个人观点：错误是不可避免的，但呆在能力圈内以及专注和用功可以大幅度减少犯错的机会。（2012-04-06）",[15,483,484],{},"博文：《再更正》（2012-04-11）",[15,486,487,489,490,492],{},[18,488,20],{}," 上篇啰嗦版里忘了在未来",[26,491,29],{"href":28},"后面加折现了。折现是非常重要的概念，不懂不行。",[15,494,495],{},"有些公司拿着很多现金却无法有效利用的话，实际上这些现金是在贬值的。最好的状况是在不用分红的前提下可以维持资产回报率。",[15,497,498],{},"“另外上一篇我说的最小机会成本是无风险国债回报，后来想了想，觉得也有问题。实际的最小机会成本应该是通胀率。也就是说，如果手里的钱的回报率赶不上通胀率的话，实际上是在亏钱。”这一段改成下面的意思了：通胀率其实不是机会成本而应该是“基本回报率”，在投资时其实无法考虑通胀率，但可以比较利率。也就是说，最小机会成本还是无风险国债回报。",[307,500],{},[15,502,503],{},[18,504,163],{},[15,506,507],{},"01．网友：看来，我要把啰嗦版多看看。",[15,509,510,513],{},[18,511,512],{},"段永平：啥时候当你觉得简单版就足够了的时候，你大概就可以了"," 。（2012-04-06）",[15,515,516],{},"02．网友：今天忽然明白了“做对的事情＋把事情做对”=复利，也理解了复利的伟大和艰难，其实这就是段兄说的投资或价值投资的意思，长期投资的含义也在里边了。",[15,518,519,522],{},[18,520,521],{},"段永平"," ：艰难的说法比较怪，其实这是最不艰难的办法。（2014-04-28）",[15,524,525],{},"03．网友：我认为大部分价值投资者，根本不具备任何行业的能力圈……",[15,527,528,530,531,534],{},[18,529,20],{}," 也许你没看我写的是什么。",[18,532,533],{},"我这里有一点很重要的就是认为大多数人其实不碰股票就是最好的投资，除非你认为自己确实有自己了解的好公司处在便宜的价钱。"," （2012-04-09）",[36,536,538],{"id":537},"第3节-做对的事情把事情做对","第3节 做对的事情，把事情做对",[15,540,541],{},"想起一个小故事。很多年前，我和华以刚下过一盘围棋，有一块我感觉非常不舒服，复盘的时候我问他为什么我怎么下都觉得不对，然后他告诉我其实你这里怎么下都一样的，因为你前面下错了。（2013-04-28）",[15,543,544],{},[18,545,546],{},"什么是“做对的事情”？",[15,548,549],{},"难道还有人明知是错的事情还会做的吗？看看周边有多少人抽烟你就明白了。为什么人们会明知是错的事情还会去做呢？那是因为错的事情往往有短期的诱惑。",[15,551,552],{},"其实，人们往往知道什么是错的事情，只要把错的事情停止做了，就离“做对的事情”更近了一步。所以，“做对的事情”其实就是发现是错的事情的时候要马上停止，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价。",[15,554,555],{},"人们常说的“坚持到底”，指的是坚持“做对的事情”而不是坚持做错的事情！",[15,557,558,559,563],{},"很多人都希望知道把公司做好的秘诀是什么，其实“秘诀”不是做了什么而是",[26,560,562],{"href":561},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fbuzuoshenme","不做什么","。好的公司都一定是有一个长长的“Stop doing list”，就是“不做的事情”。",[15,565,566],{},[18,567,568],{},"什么是“把事情做对”？",[15,570,571],{},"这个可能比较容易理解一点点，但其实也没有看上去那么容易。把事情做对是一个学习的过程，中间会犯很多的错误。如何坚持做对的事情，付出为了把事情做对的过程当中所需要付出的代价，其实是非常不容易的。在把事情做对的过程当中，其实是没有办法避免犯错误的，比如打高尔夫的人，是没有办法避免偶尔把球打下水的，能做的仅仅是如何能降低犯错误的概率。（2016-10-12）",[15,573,574,575,580],{},"从做对的事情和把事情做对的角度讲，",[18,576,577,578,33],{},"投资里做对的事情就是买股票就是买公司，就是买公司的生意，就是买公司未来的净",[26,579,29],{"href":28}," ，这点其实不用看书，懂了就懂了，不懂看啥书帮助都不会太大。",[15,582,583,586],{},[18,584,585],{},"从把事情做对的角度看，投资就是要看懂公司的生意，"," 有些书也许是可以帮助你看懂一些生意的。老巴的股东信是涵盖了两者的，如果反复看还是没帮助的话，别的书估计帮助也不大。我本人是没看过啥书的，但做过企业对理解企业有很大帮助。（2018-10-08）",[307,588],{},[15,590,591],{},[18,592,163],{},[15,594,595,597,598,601],{},[18,596,20],{}," 什么是对的事情，这是个很容易困惑人的问题。我的理解是",[18,599,600],{},"对的事情一般来讲是指原则性的东西，而且往往是用什么是不对的事情来表述的。"," 比如，骗人是不对的等等。",[15,603,604,605,608,609,220],{},"所以说，",[18,606,607],{},"做对的事情在实际中往往就变成不对的事情不要做"," 。比如，不做自己不懂的东西等等。（",[18,610,611],{},"2010-03-16",[15,613,614],{},"01．网友：问题是开始怎么知道是对的事情呢？",[15,616,617,619,620,623],{},[18,618,20],{}," 但你肯定知道有些事情是错的。",[18,621,622],{},"做对的事情的意思是，如果错了就改，马上改的代价最小"," 。很多人是明知是错还要做的，但错的事情往往有眼前利益，有诱惑。比如：骗人的生意、抽烟、赌博（小赌不算，因为小赌怡情）等等。（2010-05-25）",[15,625,626],{},"02．网友：请问段老师，怎么才能知道什么事，是做对了还是做错了呢，有些事只能事后知道，",[15,628,629,631,632,635],{},[18,630,20],{}," 呵呵，非常好的问题。",[18,633,634],{},"我对做对的事情的看法是：发现错了马上改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价。"," 其实这个世界上有很多人（包括我在内），经常会明知不对，但由于各种原因而不肯改，结果错误变得更大，呵呵，我肯定犯过这种错误。没人不犯错，但知道这个原则的人犯错概率低，改得快，最后哪个啥了......。（2010-03-14）",[15,637,638],{},"网友X：什么是做对了还是做错了，比如说做股票，做短线就是错的事情（玩玩而已那可以理解），做真正的价值投资那就是对的事情。当然偶尔犯错也是可以理解的，但不要犯原则性错误。不知道是否这样认为？",[15,640,641,643],{},[18,642,20],{}," 恩，你的解释很对。（2010-03-14）",[15,645,646],{},"03．网友：段先生以下这段场景是否如实？",[15,648,649],{},[101,650,651],{},"段永平接着解释为什么“中国巴菲特”是可为的呢，他说，研究巴菲特其实就一件事：不懂不做，只要你这么做，就叫价值投资。",[15,653,654],{},"我个人悟的也是这样：不懂不做，当懂一些特定的事物时其它东西自然云开雾散。",[15,656,657,659,660],{},[18,658,20],{}," 呵呵，",[18,661,662],{},"一般人学习理解是总是觉得做什么是最重要的，其实最重要的是不做什么。巴菲特能有今天最重要的是“不做什么”。",[15,664,665],{},"网友：巴菲特能有今天最重要的是“不做什么”。段总的这个理解，确实是很深刻的！闭上眼睛冥思一下。",[15,667,668,670],{},[18,669,20],{}," 其实每个人都多少知道自己能做什么，但往往不知道自己不该做什么。如果每个人把自己干过的不应该干的事情不干的话，结果的差异会大大超出一般人的想象。可以看看芒格讲的如何赚20000亿美金的例子。（2010-06-07）",[15,672,673,676],{},[18,674,675],{},"段永平：学巴菲特最重要和人们能够学的东西其实是他不做什么！绝大多数人学的是相反的东西，就是他在做什么，那是没办法学的，因为每个人的能力圈不同。巴菲特说知道自己能力圈有多大比能力圈有多大要重要的多。当然，能力圈的大小也是可以学的，但那是每个人自己的经历包括学历等，巴菲特不教这个。"," （2011-10-23）",[15,678,679,682],{},[18,680,681],{},"段永平：我是不教人做什么的，因为不可能教得会，所以我总是教人不要做什么。"," 所以凡是说照我说的去做的说法大概都是没看明白的吧。我不知道别人是不是可以模仿我的做法，比如我7-8岁就上山砍过柴、养过猪，你怎么模仿？",[15,684,685],{},"更何况我自己都不知道我的“做法”是什么。",[15,687,688,691],{},[18,689,690],{},"我这里讲的最重要的就是什么不能做，至于什么能做是每个人自己的造化，别人帮不了忙的"," 。（2011-06-02）",[15,693,694,695,699,700,704],{},"04．网友：其实你怎么做对我来讲还是很重要的。因为你在我心目中第一次确立了一个形象，一个价值观：以前我觉得商业怎么都是欺诈（可能和受到的教育和接触的一些不那么",[26,696,698],{"href":697},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fbenfen","本分","的商人有关），从你那里我第一次知道本分、诚信这些是可行的。而顺着你的一些讲话和报道，接连看到了冯仑、王石、马云等这样一批本分、诚信和",[26,701,703],{"href":702},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fzhengzhi","正直","的商人或者说企业家，令我觉得所有这些都是最宝贵的东西。",[15,706,707,709],{},[18,708,20],{}," 所以说最重要的是我不做什么，巴菲特不做什么。你想学人怎么做是不可能的，因为每个人的能力圈不同，但什么不做才是成功的关键因素。比如说欺诈的事不能做，投资不能用margin等。（2011-10-04）",[15,711,712],{},"网友D：很多年后，才明白了这个道理。才体会到知道“不干啥”的重要意义。",[15,714,715,717],{},[18,716,20],{}," 我想大概所有人都是很多年以后才明白的，能真正明白就是福气或者叫造化。（2011-06-04）",[15,719,720],{},"05．网友：我的本意是，大家要学习你做事的方式和精髓，而不能完全从表面上模仿你来做投资。",[15,722,723,725],{},[18,724,20],{}," 我总是觉得很多时候人们太注意所谓成功人士都干了啥，但就是不注意他们不干啥，而往往不干什么是决定成功的最重要因素（当然是在也干点什么的前提下）。（2011-06-03）",[15,727,728,729],{},"06．",[18,730,731],{},"做对的事情和把事情做对",[15,733,734,736],{},[18,735,20],{}," 以下这段引自博友，我觉得是个很好的问题，故说说自己的看法。",[15,738,739],{},"网友：《怎样看待犯错》今天重新看了一遍赢在中国，听到了马云的一句话很矛盾，他说如果不犯错将是最大的错，而巴菲特先生的原则却是不要犯错，这要怎么理解怎么把握呢？",[15,741,742],{},"网友L：段先生，我有一个问题搞不懂。巴菲特先生的原则是不要犯错误，而马云先生又强调不要怕犯错误，不犯错误将会是最大的错误。听起来都觉得很理解，可一到具体又晕了。究竟有可能会犯错的尝试要不要做呢？",[15,744,745,747,748],{},[18,746,20],{}," 我不知道这里所提巴菲特的原话是什么，我只记得巴菲特说过大概这样的话：第一，不要亏钱，第二，不要忘记第一条。我个人理解他老人家在这里讲的是投资安全的问题。如果一个人投资到他不懂的东西里就有可能亏钱，所以要避免。这里并不意味着巴菲特就不会亏钱，事实上他亏过的钱的总额比我们谁都多，因为他也有犯错误的时候。呵呵，光是他投在康菲石油上亏的钱就有几十个亿美金啊。我一直没看明白他为什么要投康菲石油，也许他也犯了以为看懂却实际没看懂的错误？但是，",[18,749,750],{},"巴菲特有今天，我个人觉得最重要的就是他很少犯“原则性错误”，也就是说，他认为他能力以外的事他坚决不碰。几十年下来，他犯的错远远少于同行，仅此而已。",[15,752,753],{},[18,754,755],{},"巴菲特之所以是“巴菲特”，最重要的就是他能坚持做正确的事，也就是原则性错误的事不做。比如：他认为他“不懂的事就坚决不做”。我从巴菲特那里学到的“最重要的东西”也就是这个。",[15,757,758],{},[18,759,760],{},"马云讲的是另外的一面，就是如何把事情做对的问题。无论是谁，在把事情做对的过程当中都是有可能犯错的，好像也没听说哪个所谓成功人士没犯过错。把事情做对的过程往往是一个学习的过程，犯错往往是不可避免的。不犯错的办法只有一个，那就是什么都不做。什么都不做有时可能就是最大的错。",[15,762,763],{},"呵呵，不知道这么解释是否能明白？有时想想中文真是很有意思。一会儿说“慈不带兵”，一会儿说“爱兵如子”；一会说要“三思而后行”，一会又说要“当机立断”。呵呵，好像并不矛盾啊。他们说的都是事物的不同面而已吧？（2010-03-14）",[15,765,766],{},"07．网友：最早来段总这里，很急着想要学“术”，看他对具体实例的分析和点评。后来慢慢体会到，每个人的能力圈是不同的，很多东西他比我们理解得深，同样地，我们也会有一些东西比他了解得清楚。所以学“术”不如学“道”。",[15,768,769,772],{},[18,770,771],{},"段永平：道可学，术要练。道指的就是“做对的事情”或者说“不做不对的事情”或者说“发现错了马上改--不管多大的代价都是最小的代价”。“术”指的是技术，对每个人来说都是需要学同时也需要练习的，非一朝一夕之功。"," （2013-03-24）",[15,774,775],{},"网友：请教您个关于价值投资‘术’方面的经验，您对‘术’这个层面怎么看？",[15,777,778,780,781,783],{},[18,779,20],{}," 我个人以为价值投资的“术”就是如何研究企业未来",[26,782,29],{"href":28},"（折现）的问题。老巴的“护城河”、好的管理团队等都属于“术”的范畴。其实这个“术”是很难从书本上学到的，学校里一般也没人可以教，大概只能自己慢慢悟了。（2 011-01-05）",[15,785,786,789],{},[18,787,788],{},"段永平：先有道然后术才有用哈，不然就是瞎忙。"," （2015-01-16）",[15,791,792],{},"08．网友：最想学的就是您的把事情做对，并坚持下去，这句对我太重要了，我最害怕的事，就是自己做事做错，更怕自己知道错了，还不及时改正，甚至找借口，或者妄望有什么。愿智者段师，多多讲讲您是怎么样把事情做对，并坚持下去，以及发现错及时改的事例。",[15,794,795,797],{},[18,796,20],{}," 把事情做对是要靠学习的，在实践中学习，在犯错误中学习。不做永远都不犯错，但永远学不会。（2010-03-27）",[15,799,800],{},"09．网友：作为一个优秀的投资人很好奇你有没有犯过错？",[15,802,803,805,806,809,810,813],{},[18,804,20],{}," 我投资也犯过错，以后也还会犯。",[18,807,808],{},"以前犯错可能是因为做了错的事情，也可能是在做对的事情过程中犯的错"," 。",[18,811,812],{},"以后我犯的错的大概绝大多数会是把事情做对的能力上的问题"," 。（2019-03-14）",[15,815,816],{},"10．网友：你有一句话“做对的事情，把事情做对”，我体会很难。",[15,818,819,821],{},[18,820,20],{}," 做到这句话当然难，不然为什么所谓成功人士总是少数呢？（2010-05-24）",[15,823,824],{},"11．网友：我在2016年看到师兄的一句话“犯了错误立刻改正，再大的代价都是最小的代价”，于是我坚决的把一个明知是错但还犹豫的股票卖掉了，当时亏了20%，放到现在则是亏60%，借这个机会感谢一下师兄啊。经过前些天在师兄博客的讨论，关于便宜股票，我的理解是“再便宜也不能减少对公司的理解（想清楚10年以后的样子）和降低对公司的要求（所有的筛子还是要过）。”",[15,826,827],{},"网友l：做到这一点确实不容易。",[15,829,830,832],{},[18,831,20],{}," 不这么做会更不容易的！",[15,834,835],{},"网友d：不这么做不但损失惨重，而且还会错失好的机会，时间越长这一正一负的差额越大，损失越大。",[15,837,838,840],{},[18,839,20],{}," 对，就是机会成本的意思。（2018-01-23）",[15,842,843,845],{},[18,844,20],{}," 做正确的事情实际上是通过不做不正确的事情来实现的，也就是说，一旦发现是不正确的事情，就要马上停止，不管多大的代价往往都会是最小的代价。举个简单的投资里的例子，发现买错了股票或公司就应该赶紧离开，不然越到后面损失会越大，但大部分人往往会希望等到回本再说。",[15,847,848],{},"同时，正确的事情就要坚持，比如买了个好公司。举个我们自己的小例子，大概五六年前我们公司让我负责一笔人民币闲钱的投资，开始我们买的时候可能了解不够，没能完全看明白，后来觉得是买错了，最后亏了点小钱卖掉了，全部换成了茅台。如果当时不及时改正错误，可能到今天还亏着钱呢。亏钱卖股票不容易，但如果懂沉入成本以及机会成本的概念的话就会容易很多。",[15,850,851],{},"是否在用正确的方法做事情属于如何把事情做对的范畴，这个我不擅长，所以早早就退休了。不过，我知道一个很重要的东西，就是在把事情做对的过程当中是一定会犯很多错误的，所以在做对的事情过程当中所犯的错误和因为做错的事情而带来的结果要严格区分开来。（2018-7）",[15,853,854],{},"12．引用：聪明和智慧的区别",[15,856,857],{},"【转载】天才抵不过天时：一群金融天才的两次灭顶之灾",[15,859,860],{},"本文复盘了世界顶尖金融学家黄奇辅等一群金融天才、两位诺贝尔奖获得者组成的梦幻团队（长期资本管理公司）在使用杠杆的情况下的两次失败经历。",[15,862,863,865,866,869],{},[18,864,20],{}," 一般来讲，",[18,867,868],{},"聪明人知道如何把事情做对，但有智慧指的是要做对的事情"," 。投机投的是零和游戏，投资投的是企业带来的利润。所以投资不需要那么聪明就可以了，而投机者就算很聪明早晚还是会掉坑里的。（2015-08-14）",[15,871,872],{},"网友：这样说来，聪明只能代表做事的能力了。如果把错事做完成了，便迟早会产生负面的效果，便应验了聪明反被聪明误。智慧则是先有个辨别是非对错的能力和品格为前提基础，再加上聪明的行动或不行动。",[15,874,875,877],{},[18,876,20],{}," 不然智慧和聪明有啥区别？（2015-08-17）",[15,879,880],{},"13．引用：点评芒格主义",[15,882,883],{},"36，我们长期努力保持不做傻事，所以我们的收获比那些努力做聪明事的人要多得多。",[15,885,886,888],{},[18,887,20],{}," 小聪明和大智慧的差别，也是坚持不做不对的事情的意思。（2012-06-26）",[15,890,891],{},"网友：记得您说过不要轻易扩大自己的能力圈，能力圈的培养是需要很多年的，这里面勤奋和天赋哪个更重要？",[15,893,894,896],{},[18,895,521],{}," ：勤奋和天赋其实都没那么重要，做对的事情最重要。",[15,898,899],{},"网友：不太明白啊，如果勤奋和天赋都不够，那怎么搞明白什么是对的事",[15,901,902,904],{},[18,903,521],{}," ：如果我说勤奋重要你会变得更勤奋吗？如果我说天赋重要你会变得更有天赋？但是，做对的事情是可以选择的。人们大概都知道骗人是不对的，也大概知道抽烟是不对的吧，也大概知道酗酒是不对的吧？看看周围有多少人在选择做对的事情你大概就明白了。（2019-09-10）",[15,906,907],{},"网友k：想起了李想的一句话，选择比努力重要。",[15,909,910,912],{},[18,911,521],{}," ：这话很对。人其实是很难变得更努力的。我自己小时候就是个常立志的人，但无论怎么努力都没能变得更努力。（2019-09-10）",[15,914,915],{},"引用：点评芒格主义（2012-06-26）",[15,917,918],{},"22，聪明人也不免遭受过度自信带来的灾难。他们认为自己有更强的能力和更好的方法，所以往往他们就在更艰难的道路上疲于奔命。",[15,920,921,923],{},[18,922,20],{}," 最简单的例子就是一个很会开车的人开了一辆很好的车但上高速时上反了入口哈。",[15,925,926],{},"指的是聪明反被聪明误的那种？其实就是做对的事情（坚持不做错的事情），然后把事情做对。聪明往往指的是把事情做对的能力比较强，但知道坚持不做错的事情的人最后才会成大器，比如巴菲特。",[15,928,929],{},"大家一定要分清做错的事情和在把事情做对的过程中所犯的错误的本质区别。在把事情做对的过程当中任何人都是会犯错的，包括巴菲特，但由于其坚持不做错的事情，所以犯大错的概率低，很多年以后的结果就完全不一样了。如果还不明白的话，就请看看那些一直很聪明但老是不如意的人们这些年都在忙啥就明白了。（2012-06-26）",[15,931,932,934],{},[18,933,20],{}," 往回看个几十年，你会看到很多很“聪明”的“聪明人”成就很小，原因可能在他们大概没把聪明放在做对的事情上。（2015-04-06）",[15,936,937],{},"58，我经常见到一些并不聪明的人成功，他们甚至也并不十分勤奋。但是他们都是一些热爱学习的“学习机器”；他们每天晚上睡觉的时候都比那天早上起床的时候稍微多了那么一点点智慧。伙计，如果你前面有很长的路要走的话，这可是大有裨益的啊。",[15,939,940,942],{},[18,941,20],{}," 在坚持做对的事情的前提下，把事情做对的能力是可以学习的，只要每天进步一点就行。（2012-06-26）",[15,944,945],{},"14．网友：理解复利的强大和难于达成是理解很多事情的精髓。您对于芒格这句话是怎么理解的，跟我们大家伙说说。",[15,947,948,950],{},[18,949,20],{}," 不做不对的事情，从而少犯错。对于具有把事情做对的能力的人而言，时间长了就明白什么是复利了。（2013-06-04）",[15,952,953],{},"15．网友：如果让我们能保持自己只做对的事情，我们是不是有必要建设一个明晰的，正确的投資文化作为基础？",[15,955,956,958],{},[18,957,20],{}," 没人可以保证自己只做对的事情，所以需要建立stop doing list。（2015-08-12）",[15,960,961],{},"网友：大道，您好，记得在步步高十周年记的视频里，您曾说过一句话：“我们能走到今天，并不是因为我们有多优秀，我们有多了不起，而是我们犯的错误比我们的对手更少”。我想问问，在投资上是否也如此，想要在投资这条路上走的更远，做的更好，就需要尽可能的降低自己的犯错次数（犯错概率）",[15,963,964,966,967,970],{},[18,965,20],{}," 是的，",[18,968,969],{},"经营企业和投资一样，少犯错很重要。"," 但所谓少犯错不是通过什么都不敢做实现的，那叫裹足不前。少犯错是通过坚持做对的事情来实现。而所谓坚持做对的事情是通过发现是错的事情就马上停止，不管多大的代价都会是最小的代价。stop doing list也很重要。（2020-10-14）",[15,972,973],{},"16．网友：感觉“做对的事”比“把事做对”要更难。我理解“对的事”可以理解为“符合长期商业逻辑的事情”，希望听听您的意见，您如何判断什么是“对的事”？",[15,975,976,979,980,983],{},[18,977,978],{},"段永平：对的事情往往和能长久有关系"," ，投资上尤其如此。所谓不对的事情其实并不总是很容易判断的。有些事情相对比较容易判别，比如不骗人。有些不那么容易，比如是不是该早睡早起。有很多觉得不对的事情都是通过长期的思考和别人以及自己的经验教训得来的，比如我们公司不为别的公司代工。",[18,981,982],{},"所谓要做对的事情实际上是通过不做不对的事情来实现的，这就是为什么要有stop doing list，意思就是“不做不对的事情”或者是立刻停止做那些不对的事情。也许每个人或公司都应该要积累自己的stop doing list。如果能尽量不做不对的事情，同时又努力地把事情做对，长时间（10年20年）后的区别是巨大的"," 。（2019-04-02）",[15,985,986],{},"17．网友：最近两年到一个新公司里，做了很多扑腾，遇到了不少挫折，走到了感觉很困惑的地带，想听听学长的指点。",[15,988,989,991],{},[18,990,20],{}," 我觉得你也许应该再看看tim cook去年给毕业生的那个讲话，努力去找到你自己的北斗星？我还想起老巴说过的，明知是坑就别再往下挖了。千万别拿时间不当成本，我见过太多聪明人忙碌一辈子也忙不明白的，原因大概就是没有自己的北斗星，凡事决策时都是从眼前利益着想，30年后的差异是巨大的。（2016-05-31）",[15,993,994],{},"网友O：“我见过太多聪明人忙碌一辈子也忙不明白的”，段总的这句话，让我想起身边的一些人，特别能折腾，过程好像很隆重，结果是无声息。",[15,996,997],{},"网友G：寻找自己北斗星，也是对我的提醒.",[15,999,1000,1002],{},[18,1001,20],{}," 北斗星指的是价值观，就是要有stop doing list. 30年后可以看到巨大的差异。（2016-06-31）",[15,1004,1005],{},"网友：段总的“北斗星”，应该是指“事物的本质”吧？",[15,1007,1008,1010],{},[18,1009,20],{}," 对的事情。（2019-05-31）",[15,1012,1013],{},"李开复：人生就是一串困难的选择，是一个不断选择的过程。当我们走过人生的路途，身后留下的就是我们选择的结果。",[15,1015,1016,1018],{},[18,1017,20],{}," 最重要的要选择做对的事情，也就是发现错了的事情要改，不管多大的代价可能都是最小的代价。（2013-04-15）",[15,1020,1021,1022,1026],{},"网友：感谢大道，让我看到一个普通人（其实不普通，普通指没有特殊的权贵家庭背景）也能有这样值得大家尊敬的成就（企业，投资，慈善），让我更有信心，其次默默反复读了大道的博客和雪球的问答式交流，让我很受启发（本分，有所为，有所不为，十年的时间维度，自我学习能力，对自己诚实知与不知，利益之上的追求，",[26,1023,1025],{"href":1024},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fganweitianxiahou","敢为天下后","等等），修正了我的思维，和启示，特表示感谢。",[15,1028,1029,1031,1032,1035],{},[18,1030,20],{}," 你说得非常对，",[18,1033,1034],{},"普通人坚持做对的事情的结果是可以很不普通的"," ！（2019-05-08）",[15,1037,1038],{},"网友：虽然这一年来创业失败，欠了一些债务。身体也很差，情绪经常很压抑。但是很幸运的就是能够遇到您的文字。未来的日子里会时时刻刻的思考什么是对的事情，什么是不对的事情。抱着本分和常识去面对生活，事业和投资。我相信十年后我不会太差。",[15,1040,1041],{},"“普通人通过坚持做对的事情可以变得很不普通。”这句话我希望能用一生去践行。想说的很多，总之谢谢大道！",[15,1043,1044,1046],{},[18,1045,521],{}," ： 2019-05-24",[15,1048,1049],{},"18．网友：怎么发现对／不对的事情？",[15,1051,1052,1054],{},[18,1053,20],{}," 要有时间想。可能会想很久，有一天突然灵光一现，想明白是错的／对的。很多人一天到晚忙，根本没时间想，可能永远都不会明白。（2018-9-30）",[15,1056,1057],{},"19．网友：怎么理解“Stop Doing List”？",[15,1059,1060,1062],{},[18,1061,20],{}," 主要讲的是做对的事情。它不是一个skill（技巧）或者formula（公式），而是思维方式：如果发现错了，就立刻停止，因为这个时候成本是最小的。我不能告诉你对错，怎么判断对错，要自己积累。",[15,1064,1065],{},"“Stop Doing List”没有shortcut（捷径），要靠自己去积累，去攒，去体悟。stop doing就是发现错，就要停，时间长了就效果很明显。很多人放不下眼前的诱惑，30年后还在那儿。错了一定要停，要抵抗住短期的诱惑。（2018-09-30）",[36,1067,1069],{"id":1068},"第4节-stop-doing-list不为清单","第4节 Stop doing list（不为清单）",[15,1071,1072],{},"网友：段总应该也有弱点吧，你是怎么解决的呢？",[15,1074,1075,1077],{},[18,1076,20],{}," 呵呵--当我知道自己会死在哪里时，就永远不去那儿--芒格（大意啊，原话不记得）。（2010-10-22）",[15,1079,1080],{},"查理·芒格原话：“我只想知道我将来会死在什么地方这样我就永远不去那儿了”",[15,1082,1083],{},[18,1084,1085],{},"1．不做空",[15,1087,1088],{},"01．网友：“做空有无限风险，一次错误就可能致命”文章是这么写，其实没那么可怕。",[15,1090,1091,1093],{},[18,1092,521],{}," ：呵呵，我以前也那么认为来着（2010-03-31）",[15,1095,1096],{},"02．网友：阿段..您真有做空过百度？",[15,1098,1099,1101],{},[18,1100,521],{}," ：你不相信我却在这里干什么？（2010-10-22）",[15,1103,1104],{},"03．网友：呵呵Mr段是否可以分享一下自己认为的最差的一次投资？也好让我这样的追随者有点信心。",[15,1106,1107,1109],{},[18,1108,521],{}," ：呵呵，亏钱的投资有好几次了，多数都可以原谅，但有一次属于极度愚蠢，就是跑去short百度。之前投资表现非常好，有点飘飘然，真以为自己很厉害。开始还是想小玩玩，后来又不服输，最后被夹空而投降，所有账号加起来亏了很多钱，大概有1.5-2亿美金，其中有个账号到现在都翻不了身。",[15,1111,1112],{},"最可惜的是，这次错误把我们的现金储备全部消耗掉了，机会成本巨大，不然这次金融危机我就可以帮大家赚更多钱了。而且最遗憾的是，这个错误是发生在巴菲特叫我不要做空之后。现在知道什么叫不听老人言的后果了吧？值得欣慰的是，这3年总的表现还不错。真有点感谢金融危机给了我逆转的机会。",[15,1114,1115],{},"老巴的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！",[15,1117,1118],{},"不过，这其实不算我最差的投资，因为这根本就是彻头彻尾的投机。以后不会再有这种例子了。",[15,1120,1121],{},"网友G：最可惜的是，这次错误把现金储备全部消耗掉了，机会成本巨大。是不是指现金用完了，真正好的投资标的来时，却没钱买了。",[15,1123,1124,1126],{},[18,1125,521],{}," ：是的，机会成本大，亏点钱是小事。（2010-05-10）",[15,1128,1129],{},"04．网友：请问段总当时卖空百度的理由是什么？当时是怎么想的才做出这决定？从中我们应该学到什么？",[15,1131,1132,1134],{},[18,1133,20],{}," 首先，卖空行为是错的。当时确实看到了一些百度不对的东西，事实上百度后来也因为这个东西掉得很低（如果我能一直空到那时实际上可以赚大钱），但我也确实忽略了一些对百度有利的重要条件，比如政策环境等。总而言之，卖空行为是投机行为，吾不该为之。（2010-09-14）",[15,1136,1137],{},"网友B：大道当时为啥空百度呢",[15,1139,1140,1142,1143,1147],{},[18,1141,521],{}," ：当时不知道哪根神经起了主导作用，属于失去",[26,1144,1146],{"href":1145},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fpingchangxin","平常心","的愚蠢行为。（2012-03-14）",[15,1149,1150],{},"网友：大道，你是不是可以反思下当年short百度的最致命原因是哪个？",[15,1152,1153,1155],{},[18,1154,521],{}," ：我早就不再做空了。（2012-03-26）",[15,1157,1158,1159,1163],{},"05．网友：对于优秀公司的多头操作，理解度就基本等同于",[26,1160,1162],{"href":1161},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fanquanbianji","安全边际","，这个对我非常有启发，先谢谢大道．但我私下认为：对于劣质公司的空头操作，安全边际要包含更多的内容．",[15,1165,1166,1168],{},[18,1167,521],{}," ：做空是愚蠢的！（2013-03-04）",[15,1170,1171],{},"06．网友：我手上空头COVEREDBOUGHT BACK SOME YHOO",[15,1173,1174,1176],{},[18,1175,521],{}," ：长期而言，靠做空成功的人极少，这么难的路还是不走的好。",[15,1178,1179],{},"网友：谢了！极少人做的东西才能赚钱，也是逆向思维。",[15,1181,1182,1184],{},[18,1183,521],{}," ：不是极少数人做，而是绝大多数做的人都中招了。（2010-07-04）",[15,1186,1187],{},"07．网友：如果腾讯涨到200港元以上，您经过调研又发现腾讯的游戏业务增长接近极限。您会考虑融券卖空腾讯的股份吗？巴菲特好像做空过美元吧？",[15,1189,1190,278,1192,1195],{},[18,1191,521],{},[18,1193,1194],{},"我以后不会做空任何股票"," 。我不觉得腾讯到200块就贵的离谱，做空要小心。为什么要找这种让自己睡不好觉的事干呢？巴菲特也许其实是想对冲他的美元资产。对他做空美金的事我没搞懂，总觉得他不应该做。他可能是好玩吧？（2010-03-29）",[15,1197,1198],{},"08．网友：雅虎要跌吗？感觉没人能挽救雅虎了．如果这些传说中的收购都是浮云的话，是不是可以空一把？",[15,1200,1201,1203],{},[18,1202,521],{}," ：任何时候，只要你还想着要空一把谁，那就表示你还是个投机分子（以为自己比市场聪明）。早点收起做空头的念头吧，老老实实去找那些可以让你睡得好觉的deal！",[15,1205,1206],{},"不过，投机是件非常好玩的事情，就像偶尔去下赌场一样，如果你做好输钱的准备的话（赌点小钱？）",[15,1208,1209],{},"我们老中好像天生好赌，真有很多人是到赌场去赌身家的，让人难以理解。",[15,1211,1212],{},"顺便讲个赌场小故事：n年前，我们还处在VCD的年代的时候，有一年拉斯维加斯CES期间，酒店赌场里见到很多同行朋友在贵宾厅玩。经常看到小铲子一铲就是几万美金，一晚上下来怎么着都是几十万美金的出入了。我那时想，这帮哥们可真是喜欢刺激啊。过了两天，当我回中国时，在机场居然发现这帮哥们居然坐的是华航经停台北的经济舱。我那时就想，这帮哥们这是想不开啊。不过据说那次以后，这班哥们开始不那么亏待自己了，起码也搞个商务舱吧。（2011-10-29）",[15,1214,1215],{},"09．网友：我今天只是Covered一些空头，我手上只有空头&Cash，明天看看Market可能去买一些，不急慢慢来买，因为Margin Call的l还没出手...",[15,1217,1218,1220],{},[18,1219,521],{}," ：希望你有一天能理解老巴为什么讲不要做空时，你的投资就会再进一步。（2010-05-22）",[15,1222,1223,1226,1227,220],{},[18,1224,1225],{},"10．引用巴菲特、芒格谈做空"," （",[18,1228,1229],{},"2015-01-18",[15,1231,1232],{},"巴菲特：“查理和我对做空都不陌生，我们两个都失败了。”芒格对做空则表示：“我们不喜欢以痛苦地交易来换金钱。”（2013年）",[15,1234,1235],{},"查理和我过去在上百只股票上有过做空的想法，如果我们实施了，我们可能已经变成了穷光蛋。泡沫的演化基于人性，没有人知道什么时候它会破裂，或在破裂之前它会膨胀到多大。（2002年）",[15,1237,1238],{},"这是个有趣的值得探讨的问题，许多人被做空毁灭，做空会让你破产。",[15,1240,1241],{},"你会看到许多股票的价格远远超过其内在价值，股价是内在价值5-10倍的现象很普遍，但很少看到股价是内在价值10-20%的情况。所以，你可能认为做空很容易，但实际上不是。",[15,1243,1244],{},"股票之所以常常价格高估，是因为背后有推动的力量。他们常常可以利用高估的股价来提升价值。例如，股票内在价值为10美元，但交易价格是100美元，他们可能会把内在价值提升到50美元，然后，华尔街会说：“看，我们创造了价值！”这个游戏会继续下去，在这个游戏终结之前，作为做空者，你可能已经把钱耗光了。",[15,1246,1247],{},"长期做多更容易赚钱，你不可能通过做空赚大钱，因为巨大损失的风险意味着你不能下重注。我们会永不做空，因为我们太大了。",[15,1249,1250],{},"芒格：做空并看着推动者把股价拉升是非常刺激的，但不值得去体验这种刺激。不做空、不融资，想死就变得较难了。（2001年）",[15,1252,1253],{},"11．引用：段永平：点评芒格主义",[15,1255,1256],{},"（49）“It’s dangerous to short stocks.”",[15,1258,1259],{},"译文：（49）做空行为是很危险的。",[15,1261,1262,1264,1265,1269],{},[18,1263,521],{}," ：确实是非常危险的。不该做空的理由：做空时不光要面对",[26,1266,1268],{"href":1267},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fjibenmian","基本面","，还要面对市场的疯狂。任何人都可能会犯错，但做空犯错可能会会对无限风险，看看前几年做空大众汽车的那个案例就明白了。（2012-06-26）",[15,1271,1272],{},"（50）“Being short and seeing a promoter take the stock up is very irritating. It’s not worth it to have that much irritation in your life.”",[15,1274,1275],{},"译文：（50）坐在空头位置，又看到股价遇到利好大涨，这是一件特别让人气愤的事情。人生苦短，遭受这种气愤太不值当了。",[15,1277,1278,1280],{},[18,1279,521],{}," ：这大概是芒格年轻时的体会，很不幸我也体会过了。（2012-06-26）",[15,1282,1283],{},"（51）“It would be one of the most irritating experiences in the world to do a lot of work to uncover a fraud and then at have it go from X to 3X and and have the crooks happily partying with your money while you’re meeting margin calls. Why would you want to go within hailing distance of that？”",[15,1285,1286],{},"译文：（51）世界上最郁闷的事情之一，就是你费尽力气发现了一个骗局（并且做空这个公司），但是眼睁睁地看着股价继续疯涨三倍，而且这些骗子们拿着你的钱弹冠相庆，而且你还要收到证券行的保证金追加通知。像这种郁闷的事情你哪能去碰呢？",[15,1288,1289],{},"12．网友：好像有个德国老头就是做空了大众而卧轨了去年我看到这“贵族老头”自杀的详细报道我都掉泪了。想起来了这个德国老头叫阿道夫·默克勒，还真是德国的富豪，做空大众就自杀了，一个成功的人以这样极端的方式了结生命，也是相当勇气。",[15,1291,1292,1294],{},[18,1293,521],{}," ：他要是明白老巴讲什么就不会到这个地步。（2010-04-01）",[15,1296,1297],{},"13．网友：做空挺累，入市以来唯一挣钱的是苹果，老乔逝世后，从350涨到了560，涨了60%但我整个盘子现在只盈利8%，盈利都被做空侵蚀了。从A股过来的人，总是免不了要经历这一阶段，小孩玩火，越禁忌越玩。烧痛了手，也就罢手了。",[15,1299,1300,1302],{},[18,1301,521],{}," ：老调重弹：不做空、不margin，不做不懂的东西。什么时候明白都不晚，不过真的明白恐怕都是在付出大代价之后。（2012-03-14）",[15,1304,1305,1306],{},"14．",[18,1307,1308],{},"小案例：跟谁学（GSX）",[15,1310,1311,1313],{},[18,1312,20],{}," 我有个邻居（没那么熟），是专门做做空生意的（我搞不懂怎么做哈），前段时间突然问我是否知道这家公司，因为好几个做空公司在做空这家公司，因为这家公司做假账，理由是因为他们的成长太快了。我真的让我们教育电子的同事去了解了一下，得出的结论是：这个成长在这个环境下看不出任何明显不符合逻辑的地方。于是我告诫邻居，中国很大，这点营业额的成长比例其实不是不可能的。那时候股价好像是30-40之间。前两三个礼拜打球又碰到邻居，问起他是否还空着呢？他说是的，他们的成长太不可思议了，肯定是做假账。我看了一眼股价，那天大概80左右。",[15,1315,1316],{},"我完全不了解跟谁学这家公司，这里我想说的是：最好别做空哈！这个世界有很多你不懂的事情，为什么要跟自己过不去？",[15,1318,1319],{},"我其实就是想告诉那些和我的邻居有同样想法的人们，做空是很危险的，时间很可能不站在你这边。我看到这家公司从30多涨到130多的时候，我真的有点替邻居担心哈，我觉得他恐怕很难睡好觉，何苦呢？！",[15,1321,1322,1325],{},[18,1323,1324],{},"不喜欢的公司避开就好了，千万不要去做空，因为看错一次会让你难受很久甚至一辈子的，"," 尤其是那些已经是有钱的人们。没人希望自己需要富两次的。（2020-08-11）",[15,1327,1328],{},[18,1329,1330],{},"2．不用margin（融资，保证金杠杆交易）",[15,1332,1333],{},"钟达奇： @董宝珍先生的否极泰基金9月底净值已经公布了，净值0.4704，8月30日至今的一个月下跌了34.85%，而此期间贵州茅台股价下跌幅度为20.57%，简单计算杠杆率约为1.7，基本是券商融资限度的极致。耳旁响起那句话，不要借钱！",[15,1335,1336],{},"——-来自雪球",[15,1338,1339,1341],{},[18,1340,20],{}," 包括自己在内，人都有愚蠢的时候。看到别人的错误后会引以为戒的人们犯蠢的机会会大大降低！用margin就是件错事。做对的事情最重要，然后才是如何把事情做对。（2013-09-28）",[15,1343,1344],{},"01．网友：真是不吃亏记不牢，去年10月份时我融资买兴业银行时段总就教导过：“人们愿意做错的事情的原因是因为错的事情往往有诱惑。如果你这次赌对了，那将会更惨烈地倒在下一个错的事情上。”",[15,1346,1347,1349],{},[18,1348,521],{}," ：估计他以前肯定在上面赚过便宜哈，这次只是还债而已。（2013-09-30）",[15,1351,1352],{},"网友：虽然裸奔的宝珍离李录最近，感觉他对用杠杆的理解还是有问题，芒格说有百分之百的确定性就可以用杠杆，结果他其他文章发表说茅台用杠杆对的，3倍PE的民生用杠杆对的。理性、平常心的修炼是不容易的！",[15,1354,1355,1357],{},[18,1356,521],{}," ：都裸奔了还是不明白杠杆的坏处，这也真是执着的人哈。（2018-08-17）",[15,1359,1360],{},"网友：要拥有像芒格那样的心理素质，确实不容易，可能还是要在对于企业本身的关注上下功夫……",[15,1362,1363,1365,1366,1369],{},[18,1364,521],{}," ：投资要心理素质干什么？又不是玩命。",[18,1367,1368],{},"芒格也许真的心理素质好，传说曾经因为用margin两年内亏掉大部分身价（大概70年代的时候）。所以有了只需要富一次的说法。芒格大概可以算富过一次半的人了"," 。（2010-07-09）",[15,1371,1372],{},"网友s：是不是真的？芒格的传记中没有这一段，也从没听他提到过这件事。",[15,1374,1375],{},"只知道芒格管理的合伙基金73年亏31.9%，74年又31.5%，两年亏损超过一半，把一个最大的投资人吓跑了。史玉柱是少有的富过两次的人，富了第一次后胆大包天，富了第二次之后变得胆小如鼠（他的原话）。",[15,1377,1378,1379,1382,1383,1386],{},"网友补充：",[18,1380,1381],{},"巴菲特："," （谈长期资金管理基金破产）",[18,1384,1385],{},"如果我要写本书的话，书名就是“为什么聪明人净干蠢事”。我的合伙人说那本书就是他的自传（笑）"," （注：这里合伙人指的是芒格。芒格曾经因为用margin出过很大问题。他们现在还经常拿这个开玩笑。）这真的是一个完美的演示。（1998年佛罗里达大学演讲）",[15,1388,1389],{},"02．网友：段总，能否具体解释一下一生只富一次的含义，富了之后不再冒大的风险能理解，如果在没有富之前，是不是可以大胆一些，比如遇到好机会借钱投入。是否可以这样理解？",[15,1391,1392,1394],{},[18,1393,521],{}," ：就是不应该冒冒不起的风险。和富没富起来前后没关系。如果没富起来前出问题了你打算赖账？（2011-10-18）",[15,1396,1397],{},"03．网友：给博主发一个芒格思维的东东“聪明的飞行员不会忘了使用他的检查清单，无论他拥有何等突出的天赋或者丰富的经历。”——芒格",[15,1399,1400,1402],{},[18,1401,20],{}," 呵呵，我想大多数人可能看不懂。在美国，美国飞行员起飞前都抱着一本大手册看啊看的，坐飞机的可能心里会发毛，觉得今天是不是碰上个新手了？",[15,1404,1405],{},"其实芒格自己在70年代就犯过很大错误，差点就出局了。他就是忘了看那本手册。",[15,1407,1408],{},"网友：芒格说那一段经历对他帮助非常大，这个怎么看？",[15,1410,1411,1413],{},[18,1412,20],{}," 当然。我也是从自己的错误中学到的东西最多。（2010-03-29）",[15,1415,1416],{},"04．网友：芒格说“只要知道自己会死在哪里，然后就永远不去那个地方”，这话的普世哲理可以理解，但是运用到投资中，您认为他所指的主要是什么？",[15,1418,1419,1421],{},[18,1420,521],{}," ：比如：芒格知道做空会出大问题，所以就不做空。知道用margin会破产就不用margin。巴菲特说过，他有很多很厉害的朋友最后都破产了，原因就是因为用了margin，所以不能用margin等等。（2011-01-14）",[15,1423,1424],{},"05．网友：经常有些股票明显很贵，像巴菲特说的，股价是内在价值的5-10倍，偶尔想是不是可以做空。想想巴菲特和段总的话，就放弃这个念头，但是借钱的想法经常都有，当然主要是想加快赚钱的速度，比如比较小比例的借贷如20%，（当然知道这是不对的，如段总说的，如果你懂投资，你不需要借钱，如果你不懂投资，你不应该借钱）巴菲特还说：“毫无疑问，有些人通过借钱投资成为巨富，但此类操作同样可能使你一贫如洗。杠杆操作成功的时候，你的收益成倍放大，配偶觉得你很聪明，邻居也艳羡不已。但它会使人上瘾，一旦你从中获益，就很难回到谨慎行事的老路上去。”知道这些道理，但做起来还是会有点纠结。",[15,1426,1427,1429],{},[18,1428,521],{}," ：想办法吃个一两次大亏后大概就没机会再纠结了？（2015-01-19）",[15,1431,1432,1433,809],{},"06．网友：A股发生了大动荡，现在多庆幸自己没融资，压力小多了。觉得上证50ETF够便宜了，卖了PUT，结果还是大跌，觉得价值值了，还是会跌很多，",[18,1434,1435],{},"真到了危机时刻，才会发现段总曾经说的东西是多么的珍贵",[15,1437,1438,1440],{},[18,1439,521],{}," ：把事情做对的能力只有在做对的事情时才能让时间站在自己的一边，不然早晚会出事的。（2015-08-10）",[15,1442,1443],{},"07．网友：巴老文章里关于BETA的华盛顿邮报案例说，“我从来都不明白，为什么以4千万来购买一个价值4亿元的资产，风险会比用8千万购买来的高。”非常认同。困惑的是，当我遇到这样的机会时，万一它还跌到了2千万，此时我是否可以采用margin？",[15,1445,1446],{},"请教段老师，巴老的警言“No Margin”，是属于道德规范还是技术范畴的？",[15,1448,1449,1451],{},[18,1450,20],{}," No margin是安全范畴。出来混总是要还的，用margin赚的钱大多最后都还回去了。要命的是很多人还得时候连本都没留住。（2010-04-03）",[15,1453,1454,1456],{},[18,1455,521],{}," ：我有个朋友两万块起家赚到20亿美金但始终觉得自己像个穷人，因为总是用着200%的margin。据说现在好了，不再用margin了。不过margin有点像毒瘾，戒掉不容易。（2015-02-28）",[15,1458,1459],{},"网友：这个朋友就是最早提醒您不要用margin的吧？记得您之前有谈到过，印象非常深刻。感叹内心深处的力量。",[15,1461,1462],{},"网友d：您这位朋友也是投资股票的吗？",[15,1464,1465],{},"网友i：冒昧问句：您这朋友多大年纪，做投资多少年了？他这是一直用MARGIN就没断过吧，不然他怎么可能将2万块翻了10万倍，才能赚到20亿美金啊！这时间肯定不会短，居然一直没被清出场，做MARGIN到这步也算幸运了！",[15,1467,1468,1470],{},[18,1469,521],{}," ：他做了30年，非常有天赋，非常看基本面，非常努力，绝不轻易出手，有过好多次经典的投资，也有过几次死里逃生的经历。08\u002F09年那次在崩盘前一天汗流浃背地挥泪斩仓也是极端经典的，晚一天就彻底回到解放前了。即便如此，他已经富过超过一次了。人的行为有时候确实不容易理解。现在他的日子开心多了，颇有放下屠刀，立地成佛的感觉。（2015-03-05）",[15,1472,1473],{},"08．网友：段总不断的提醒！今天，A股暴跌8%，融资的应该损失不少！1月16日证监会规定不得向证券资产低于50万元的客户进行融资融券。",[15,1475,1476,1478],{},[18,1477,521],{}," ：很多人是可以不管熊市还是牛市都让自己难受的。（2015-01-21）",[15,1480,1481],{},"09．网友：想问段总一个问题，就是关于借钱投资的问题，如果发现一个很好的投资标的的时候，是否应该去借钱投资？段总以前说过不要借钱去投资，我也觉得很有道理。但是如果不借钱投资，机会可能就会失去了，所谓的时光不等人。所以有的时候还是感觉在借不借钱投资上比较迷惘。",[15,1483,1484,278,1486,1489],{},[18,1485,521],{},[18,1487,1488],{},"反正你借不借钱一生当中都会失去无穷机会的，但借钱可能会让你再也没机会了"," 。（2010-04-09）",[15,1491,1492],{},"10．网友：假设这个借款期限可以拉长到8年或者10年，年利率还是6.2%，您觉得这样的借款去投资是否可行。",[15,1494,1495,1497],{},[18,1496,20],{}," ［吃惊］从此开始睡不好觉，可能少活10%，而且是有经验的后面那10%，那得少赚好多钱哈。",[15,1499,1500],{},"如果你懂投资的话，你不需要借钱，因为你早晚会有钱的，着什么急？如果你不懂投资的话，你千万别借钱。那你到底是想懂还是不想懂啊？（2013-01-17）",[15,1502,1503],{},"11．网友：段总想问您个问题啊，巴菲特说过不要借钱买股票，可您曾经说过如果已经满仓的股票继续大跌，您就会再去借些钱再买入，您是不是跟巴菲特的做法不一样了呢？",[15,1505,1506,1508],{},[18,1507,521],{}," ：我有这么说过，我一直的观点都是满仓的情况下就和我无关了。借钱是危险的，没人知道市场到底有多疯狂（向下或向上）。（2010-03-16）",[15,1510,1511],{},"网友N：在某次访谈中，你那时候说网易还掉的话，你就会再借点钱或融资去买，可惜他没有再掉下来了。呵呵。",[15,1513,1514,1516],{},[18,1515,521],{}," ：呵呵，好像是说过一次类似的话。当时心里想的借钱大概是有抵押的借钱吧。巴菲特说的不借钱主要指的的是不用融券的方式借钱，否则市场一大掉就麻烦了。如果有人不太明白，那记住不借钱就对了。（2010-03-16）",[15,1518,1519],{},"网友：老巴教导，投资不用margin，不借款，而大道当时投资网易的时候，是有借款的。当时是怎么考虑的？是越跌越买，买到后来没有钱了，又借的？还是别的原因？",[15,1521,1522,1524],{},[18,1523,521],{}," ：我当时的借款只是为了图方便，需要时可以马上调钱还的。（2011-11-16）",[15,1526,1527],{},"12．网友：老巴说：“不像大部分的公司，柏克夏并不会为了一些特定的短期资金需求而去融资，反而，我们借钱是认为在一定时期内（约略短于融资期限）将有许多好的投资机会出现。最佳的投资机会大多是出现在市场银根最紧的时候，那时候你一定希望拥有庞大的火力。”记得师兄说过是不借钱的，老巴会去借钱吗？特别是在有好机会的情况下，该不该借钱？",[15,1529,1530,1532],{},[18,1531,20],{}," 这个要特别小心，老巴借的钱借期可达15到20年，不用抵押，利息极低，中间不需要还。作为有能力的人，这种钱还是可以借一点的。（2013-02-19）",[15,1534,1535],{},"13．网友：前段时间也一直想用margin，后来想想连段哥这样能量的人都吃亏了就不敢用了。仔细琢磨琢磨觉得margin的风险的确很大。如果融资失败了，消耗本金的速度会很快，不容易翻身；如果融资成功了，会把胆子练肥，为下一次掉进更大的坑里埋下“习惯”的伏笔。",[15,1537,1538,278,1540],{},[18,1539,521],{},[18,1541,1542],{},"如果你懂，你不该用margin，因为你不需要他也终究会赚钱，如果你不懂，更不应该用margin，因为早晚会因此亏大钱的。",[15,1544,1545,1548],{},[18,1546,1547],{},"不过，人们总是在吃了大亏以后才会真明白的"," 。（2013-03-22）",[15,1550,1551],{},"14．网友：请教大家，按揭买房（自住或非自住）算借钱投资？",[15,1553,1554],{},"网友l：房价下跌没人会逼你平仓。",[15,1556,1557,1559],{},[18,1558,521],{}," ：这个是关键！（2013-09-29）",[15,1561,1562],{},"网友d：我觉得话应该分两头说。",[15,1564,1565],{},"首先银行一般不会在房价下跌的时候让你补差额（即所谓的平仓），因为如果银行这么做会引起更大的恐慌情绪，这样一来银行手头上的所有房贷都更加危险。",[15,1567,1568,1569,1571,1572,1574],{},"另一方面，由于这是个公开的秘密，大多数人都知道这个逻辑，因此这个逻辑所带来的实际好处被大大削弱，甚至消失。当房价涨的时候，人们很高兴的算计着自己由于杠杆化的缘故而账面上赚了不少钱，因此很容易增加日常消费或者增加其他类型的投资，当房价下跌的时候，人们选择相信银行不可能让自己补差额，当大家都这样做的时候也许始料不及的麻烦就出现了。麻烦不一定出现在银行让业主补差额这件事情上，麻烦可能出现在人们的其他投资项目上，也可能表现为人们失去工作等等。麻烦带来的直接结果就是减少人们的",[26,1570,29],{"href":28},"（无论投资失利还是失业还是之前消费过度），当人们的",[26,1573,29],{"href":28},"不足以还按揭款项以及利息时，银行就不得不逼人们平仓了。",[15,1576,1577,1578,1580],{},"所以，",[26,1579,29],{"href":28},"就是一切的底线。",[15,1582,1583,1585],{},[18,1584,521],{}," ：如果你有栋房子，每年租金纯收入为10万且没有其他任何任何支出，这个时候如果你借10万块，告诉别人一年以后还，这种类型的借钱我觉得可以接受。（2013-10-01）",[15,1587,1588],{},"网友w：如果用杠杆炒房，房价下跌房子出不了手（多数人是涨买跌不买的），时间长了就没有足够的资金去还贷款，银行还是会逼你平仓的！",[15,1590,1591,278,1593,1596],{},[18,1592,521],{},[18,1594,1595],{},"用杠杆炒房和用margin没有本质差别，但问题来的时候要更惨，因为房子的流通性一定会差些"," 。（2013-10-09）",[15,1598,1599],{},"15．网友：今天跟一个朋友聊天，他今年炒房亏了大半身家，我问他是不是很不爽呀，他说：我20多年前来深圳只有1000块钱，现在我有老婆儿子，还有个赚钱的企业，除了这1000以外的钱，我认为我赚了几千倍了。我没啥不满足的。这个心态确实好。其实相对几十年前，大多数人都应该满足。",[15,1601,1602,1604],{},[18,1603,521],{}," ：希望这是他的真实心态。我见过一些人碰到同样的情况，说的是同样的话，但头发却突然白了许多。",[15,1606,1607],{},"不用margin，不碰不懂的东西也许就能真有这种心态了。（2011-11-19）",[15,1609,1610],{},"16．网友：段总好！借钱（银行贷款）买房与借钱买股票是不是一个道理？",[15,1612,1613,1615],{},[18,1614,521],{}," ：不一样。多数人是在有未来支付能力的情况下买房的。不过，借钱炒房和炒股票是一样的，结局一般也相同。（2014-09）",[15,1617,1618,1621],{},[18,1619,1620],{},"段永平：我不做长期有息贷款。这样在经济危机中才有最大的生存机会，我买房子都不贷款。"," （2018-09-30）",[15,1623,1624],{},"17．网友：留意到伯克希尔公司的资产负债率这几年在55%-60%间，属于负债率不算高的企业。大部分实实在在的企业视行业性质也是有一定的负债率的。一个房地产公司或者一个人按揭买房子，也是天经地义的借钱，只要不要超过太高的杠杆。为什么常常听到“不要借钱炒股”这种说法？也留意到段老师上篇博客（购买GE）里忍住不采用margin工具。请问段老师，这和上述例子的一定杠杆的使用，在哲学上有什么原则性的不同？困惑ing。",[15,1626,1627,1629],{},[18,1628,521],{}," ：借钱和margin是有区别的。用margin就是融券，如果碰上大跌随时可能会被平仓。（2010-03-30）",[15,1631,1632,1634],{},[18,1633,521],{}," ：借钱做生意一般而言是有还款期的，而且借款人对要做的生意一般了解度高，但也还是有很多人因为借钱做生意而陷入一生的麻烦。",[15,1636,1637],{},"借钱（margin）做股票是用你的其他股票抵押的，完全由broker控制，但市场大跌时他们会随时要求你卖股票还钱。股票市场有时会疯狂到无法想象，用margin的人一生也许只需要碰上一次市场向下的疯狂就可能会被wiped out。芒格这么聪明的人就曾经（70年代）因为margin而陷入大麻烦。巴菲特厉害的地方是其投资一生中从来就没有过致命的大麻烦。巴菲特讲过，即使只有1%的机会破产的机会你也不应该干。懂投资的人不需要margin，不懂投资的人更不应该用margin。（2011-09-08）",[15,1639,1640],{},"18．网友：我非常认同不用margin．只是我到现在还是不太明白Soros的玩法。他一直是大尺寸的margin。就我的认识而言Soros一定是价值投资。更多的是价值观的层面上。",[15,1642,1643,1645],{},[18,1644,521],{}," ：我没关心过Soros怎么做，但我可以肯定的是，用margin的人老的快，投资总年头短，整个投资生命周期里赚钱少很多。（2011-09-08）",[15,1647,1648],{},[18,1649,1650],{},"3．不做不懂的东西",[15,1652,1653,278,1655,1658],{},[18,1654,521],{},[18,1656,1657],{},"不做自己不懂的东西！投资的基本原则就是不懂不投！"," （2011-03-02）",[15,1660,1661,278,1663,1666],{},[18,1662,521],{},[18,1664,1665],{},"所谓懂投资的真正含义，我个人的理解其实是懂得不投不懂的东西。"," （2012-08-22）",[15,1668,1669],{},"01．网友：您能谈谈亏损的经历吗？大家都很想知道您投资失败的案例。",[15,1671,1672,1674,1675,1677],{},[18,1673,521],{}," ：我买过一只航空股，叫FRNT，亏了很多钱（之前有过一只航空股赚过很多钱）。这家公司",[26,1676,29],{"href":28},"很好，就是有点太小，结果08年被信用卡公司突然要全额现金（因为有4家别的小航空公司突然破产）。当时如果CEO想办法给对方现金的话（当时可以卖些飞机和其他资产的），其实也能过关。结果这个CEO突然宣布进破产法庭，最后该给人的钱还是给了，把公司真搞破产了。当时买这家公司时，主要是觉得石油太贵了，一定会掉下了。石油一掉，航空公司最先受益。结果都对了，油也确实掉下来了，这家公司也确实后来赚了很多钱，但我们却亏掉了。",[15,1679,1680,1683],{},[18,1681,1682],{},"我这里犯的还是做了自己其实不明白的事。"," 比较遗憾的是，之前巴菲特已经告诉我小心航空公司。这家公司破产后我真正想通了巴菲特是什么意思。所以以后不会再轻易碰航空公司了。（2010-03-27）",[15,1685,1686],{},"02．网友：请问在你的投资过程中，都犯过哪些错误呢？你是怎样发现，并纠正的呢？谢谢！",[15,1688,1689,1691,1692,809],{},[18,1690,521],{}," ：前面说过一些了，这里补充一个没说过的。去年买过一只etf，叫UNG，是和天然气挂钩的指数。我买的时候天然气的价格只有3块左右，而天然气的长期成本要大约6块以上。我认为没什么东西价格可以长期在成本价以下，就跑去买了一大堆UNG。后来经过认真研究，发现UNG并不能和天然气线性相关，而且时间损耗还很大，就觉得自己错了。但还有点不舍得卖，",[18,1693,1694],{},"因为已经亏钱了。再后来想起知错就改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价的原则，最后还是下决心亏钱了结了",[15,1696,1697,1698,1701],{},"呵呵，这单我管的所有账号加起来亏了超过xx万，但如果当时没下决心卖的话，到目前为止要多亏大概接近4倍原来的亏损。而天然气现在的价格比我买UNG时要高50%。",[18,1699,1700],{},"这个错误主要是因为对投资标的的了解不够就下手了"," （当时整体获利情况很好，手里有很多现金）。以后一定不能大意啊。（2010-03-22）",[15,1703,1704],{},"网友：呵，还是没有做到像巴菲特说的非常了解，投资应该是宁愿不做也不能犯错，什么都不做才是最困难的事情呢！",[15,1706,1707,1709],{},[18,1708,521],{}," ：说得很对，我的火候还很不够啊。（2010-03-23）",[15,1711,1712],{},[18,1713,1714],{},"03．引用：财经会客厅视频（博文时间：2010-03-22）",[15,1716,1717],{},"旁白：段永平与巴菲特共进午餐面对面交流会有怎样的收获？他为何最关心巴菲特犯过哪些错误？段永平又有哪些失败的投资经历。",[15,1719,1720,1722],{},[18,1721,20],{}," 挺关心他是怎么犯错误的，因为他也犯很多错误，像我也犯很多错误对吧？我就想哪些错我们是可以避免的，就明知是错的，你不要去做。我们做企业也是一样，叫做对的事情，然后把事情做对。那么做对的事情指的是一些原则的东西，那么他会教给我一些，比方说：你不要做不懂的东西、不要做空、不要借钱，在如何把事情做对这种地方，永远都是会犯错误的。你比方说我看个股票，我觉得还不错，结果你可能看漏了一个东西，或者说他这个管理人员突然...，举个例子，我买过一家公司，我觉得其实这家公司",[15,1724,1725],{},"主持人：是做快餐那家公司吗？",[15,1727,1728,1730,1731,1733],{},[18,1729,20],{}," 快餐那个还不算，因为那个我投的钱非常少，虽然大家有提那个，那个很少的，那个总共的投资才一百多万美金嘛，对于我这种投资规模来讲，一百多万美金，你说亏也好赚也好，根本就没有特别大的影响，包括我举这个例子也是比较典型的，当时我买的时候，这家公司每股一年的",[26,1732,29],{"href":28},"都有一块钱，它股价才一块多钱，这样说的话，我怎么买它只要两年时间把本钱赚回来了。但是这家公司，第一，就想多扩张，就多开一些店，结果多开了店，花了钱又赚不到钱，也没有营业额；第二，它又给自己的食品涨价，最后一下就不行了。",[15,1735,1736],{},"教训也谈不上，就是看错了，对它了解不够深，就跳进去了。这里面给我的教训其实不算特别大，我当时也只是试一试，因为我主要是想去做他们的董事，看看美国的上市公司它是怎么运作的。我觉得每一家公司，你要真的把它彻底搞懂并不是件容易的事情。有时候经常看起来似是而非，你觉得懂了，实际上有些东西还没有搞懂。就是说我们叫做we do not know what we do not know，就是我们不知道我们不知道什么，以为自己知道了，其实呢还不知道，所以等到发现的时候已经有点晚了。（2010-03-22）",[15,1738,1739],{},"04．网友：你和巴菲特吃饭的初衷是什么？",[15,1741,1742,1744],{},[18,1743,20],{}," 投资时，每个人都要面临无穷选择。到底啥最重要？啥不该做？巴菲特说买公司首先看生意模式、不懂不碰。从见巴菲特以后，我犯错误的机会明显下降（不懂不做），决定重仓苹果也得益于巴菲特的教诲（生意模式强大）。巴菲特讲的这两个东西，我认为至少值20%的身价（对看懂的每个人的一生而言）。",[15,1746,1747],{},"如何“懂”是必须自己学的，比想象难。对于旁人来说，如何识别“不懂”，是一个学问。（2012-07-11）",[15,1749,1750,1752],{},[18,1751,521],{}," ：即使是号称很有企业经验的本人也是在经受很多挫折之后才觉得自己对投资的理解比较好了。我问过巴菲特，在投资中不可以做的事情是什么，他告诉我说：不做空，不借钱，最重要的是不要做不懂的东西。",[15,1754,1755],{},"这些年，我在投资里亏掉的美金数以亿计，每一笔都是违背老巴教导的情况下亏的，而赚到的大钱也都是在自己真正懂的地方赚的。（2010-02-04）",[15,1757,1758],{},"05．网友：不到两周的时间，很多讲故事的公司已经跌去50%以上的幅度了……借钱做不懂的，就如同开车加速去撞墙……（2015-06-26）",[15,1760,1761,1764],{},[18,1762,1763],{},"段永平：买自己不懂的东西是为什么85%的人可以在牛市熊市都亏钱的原因"," 。没有比因为股票涨了很多而买入更荒唐的理由了。（2015-06-26）",[15,1766,1767],{},"06．网友：前段时间那个东南融通，顶级投行做的ipo，四大审计的，居然资产表的现金都可能是假的。虽然自己没撞到，但心真是凉了，有点不敢出门了，有什么招法可以避开这种地雷啊？",[15,1769,1770,278,1772,1775],{},[18,1771,521],{},[18,1773,1774],{},"不做自己不懂的东西！如果你觉得自己到最后确实没有什么企业能搞懂，就什么都不碰，那你的投资表现就可以在全世界排在前10-15%。不过如果你非要买自己不懂的东西，至少早晚可以得到些教训，也许对你人生是好事。"," （2011-09-21）",[15,1777,1778],{},"07．网友：想请段总把您自己在投资中的stop doing list分享出来",[15,1780,1781,1783,1784,1787,1788,1792],{},[18,1782,20],{}," 我的投资中的stop doing list很简单，就是不懂不碰。主要集中在两个方面：",[26,1785,1786],{"href":141},"商业模式","和",[26,1789,1791],{"href":1790},"\u002Flibrary\u002Fqiyewenhua","企业文化","。投资中的stop（2020-10-10）",[15,1794,1795],{},"08．网友：谢谢段总指教，不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西，实际上就是不冒风险，小心驶得万年船。",[15,1797,1798,1800],{},[18,1799,20],{}," 我也这么理解的。（2010-03-16）",[15,1802,1803],{},[18,1804,1805],{},"4．不要走捷径（fast is slow快即是慢）",[15,1807,1808,278,1810],{},[18,1809,521],{},[18,1811,1812],{},"其实价值投资是所谓投资的唯一一条路，不然你投的是什么？",[15,1814,1815],{},"不要走捷径，不要相信弯道超车。弯道超车是不开车和不坐车的人说的，总会被反超的。（2018-09-30）",[15,1817,1818,1819,1822],{},"01．网友：段总关于您的留言的回复让我想了好一会。“",[18,1820,1821],{},"条条道路都可能通罗马，这里是一条未必最好但肯定能到的。"," ”。（2013-04-03）",[15,1824,1825],{},[18,1826,1827],{},"段永平：其实这句话的意思和丘吉尔那句话差不多。可惜很多人都是非要试过别的路才会醒悟过来的，当然，大部分人会一直寻找捷径的。",[15,1829,1830,1832],{},[18,1831,20],{}," 你能记住这句话说明你有悟性，有悟性不去悟就可惜了。其实那句话的意思是投资只有价值投资一条路。",[15,1834,1835,1836,809],{},"网友：",[18,1837,1838],{},"个人理解：段总借丘吉尔的这句名言来释投资之道。投资就是价值投资，价值投资就是做正确的事情。这句话用在投资上也可以改说成“除了我们已经尝试过的其他投资方法之外，价值投资是最坏的了。”意思是说，价值投资是在试了各种其它投资办法之后不得不接受的最不差的一个，这和段总博客的标题“条条道路都可能通罗马，这里是一条未必最好但肯定能到的”的思想是一致的",[15,1840,1841,1843],{},[18,1842,20],{}," 我想说的是：条条道路通罗马，这条未必是最好但是肯定能到的一条。未必是最好的说法借鉴了丘吉尔的说法。（2013-02-02）",[15,1845,1846,1847,1849],{},"网友：我怎么觉得就只有一条且是最好的路了。投资的本质或者说信仰：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来自由",[26,1848,29],{"href":28},"折现。其他路没了。",[15,1851,1852,1854],{},[18,1853,20],{}," 我说这句话的潜台词就是我认为其他的路没人可以证明肯定能到，反过来看其实就只有这条路了。（2015-09-08）",[15,1856,1857],{},"03．网友：我们许多人（包括我自己）学价值投资的次序是错了，而又不自知，所以进步很慢，或者半途而废。差不多近两年来，慢慢地认识到价值投资的妙处，才逐步抛弃其他思路……事实上，我已经走了很多弯路。",[15,1859,1860,1862],{},[18,1861,20],{}," 呵呵，其实你没走弯路，因为那根本就不是路。（2012-01-31）",[15,1864,1865,1867],{},[18,1866,20],{}," 不存在什么捷径。不存在什么窍门。如果你想走轻松的路，我保证：它比艰难的路更长更痛苦。（2019-07-30）",[15,1869,1870],{},[18,1871,1872],{},"5．不盲目扩大自己的能力圈",[15,1874,1875,1878],{},[18,1876,1877],{},"段永平：不要轻易去“扩大”自己的能力圈。搞懂一个生意往往是需要很多年的，不要因为看到一两个概念就轻易跳进自己不熟悉的领域或地方，不然早晚会栽的。"," （2012-04-06）",[15,1880,1881,1883],{},[18,1882,20],{}," 不要盲目地扩充自己的能力圈。人能做的事有限，人说啥、能说啥不重要，重要的是你做啥、能做啥。（2018-9-30）",[15,1885,1886,1889],{},[18,1887,1888],{},"段永平：股市上那些长期亏钱的大多属于不知道自己能力圈有多大的人"," 。（2012-07-28）",[15,1891,1892],{},"01．网友D：请教：股票投资人，怎样才能逐渐增大自己的能力圈？",[15,1894,1895,1897],{},[18,1896,20],{}," 大小不重要，知道边界在哪儿才重要。",[15,1899,1900],{},"网友D：你说得挺有道理，巴菲特也说“能力范围的大小并不重要，要紧的是你要很清楚自己的能力范围”；而我想了解，投资人通过怎样才能逐渐稍增个人的能力圈？（烦请段总指点一下）",[15,1902,1903,1906],{},[18,1904,1905],{},"段永平：你确定你明白老巴这句话？会打golf的人大概都知道，凡是想打远点儿的时候都是最容易犯错的时候"," 。（2013-10-20）",[15,1908,1909],{},"02．网友：两年来本人只买了一个A股股票。感觉不错。港股也投了一个，目前需要做的是多看书，多学习，不断扩大自己的能力圈。",[15,1911,1912,1914],{},[18,1913,20],{}," 其实能力圈很难扩大的，至少靠读书不行。不过，多读点书能告诉自己能力圈有多大。（2012-07-16）",[15,1916,1917],{},"03．网友：所有拓展投资者视野，增加投资者知识的书都可算作投资书籍，欢迎大家讨论所有能建立正确投资理念，拓展能力圈的书。",[15,1919,1920,1922,1923,1926],{},[18,1921,20],{}," 我只是表示我本人没兴趣而已。我只是个业余投资者，自己那3板斧够用就行了，不想跟自己过不去。",[18,1924,1925],{},"老巴也说过，知道自己能力圈多大比能力圈有多大要重要的多。扩大自己的能力圈未必是明智的（这话一般可能看不懂哈）"," 。不过老巴喜欢看书，我喜欢看点别的东西而已。（2011-10-13）",[15,1928,1929],{},"04．网友：段大哥，你好，你在回复网友提问时曾提到“扩大自己的能力圈未必是明智的”，这个能不能解释一下？是不是能力圈更多跟经历有关，而且是随着人生发展逐步积累的？努力去扩展不一定能扩大的意思？因为这句话比较难懂，想请你解释一下，谢谢了！",[15,1931,1932,278,1934,1937],{},[18,1933,521],{},[18,1935,1936],{},"扩大能力圈本身没什么不对，但确实很难，你试试就明白了"," 。（2012-02-05）",[15,1939,1940],{},"网友L：哈哈，大道太谦虚，看看跟贴里这些悲催的人们吧。当然我们都太初段。",[15,1942,1943,1945,1946,1949],{},[18,1944,20],{}," 不要以赚钱喜，不要为亏钱悲哈，关键在过程。要时刻记住的就那么几条：不要用margin，不要sell short，不要做自己不懂的东西。尤其是最后这条比较难，因为比较难界定自己的能力圈。",[18,1947,1948],{},"我经常看到有人跑到自己的能力圈以外去做事情，回头安慰自己的话就是“扩大能力圈”是要付学费的。其实，对****大多数有能力投资的人而言，自己的能力圈里能做的事情实际上往往是足够多的，实在是没必要冒太大的风险跑到一个未知的地方去。"," 当然，如果是拿别人的钱或许可以试试？（玩笑哈）（2011-12-31）",[15,1951,1952],{},"网友L：不过难道人不需要拓展自己的能力圈吗？还是说不要刻意地去拓展，那又要在什么情况下才能拓展呢？人也在成长，20岁和40岁的认识应该会有很大的变化，能力圈总是会拓展的吧？",[15,1954,1955,1957],{},[18,1956,20],{}," 我大概回答不了这个问题，因为我老觉得没有一定的能力圈就不应该开始投资。芒格讲没见过40岁以下的价值投资者或许就是这个意思？（2011-12-31）",[15,1959,1960],{},"网友L：谢谢大道，部分解答了我对这个问题的疑问。对于能力圈再拓展的问题，大概是通过某种方式，这个还没想明白，比如在某个行业中摸爬滚打，或通过阅读积累了足够多的知识，或两者结合，达到真正了解它的程度，才算是能力圈有所拓展？",[15,1962,1963,1965],{},[18,1964,20],{}," 说一个肯定会有例外的看法：我觉得一个人的能力圈在40岁以前大概就定了，之后恐怕很难扩展。好像打golf也有点类似的东西。我有个球友，球一直打得不错（很稳定），个子还比我高大概7-8cm，就是开球距离比较短（大概比我短50码），所以和我打球时总是要输5-6杆给我。5年多以前在我的一再鼓励下，他下决心一定要把距离提上去。当时我跟他的教练聊过，我说一定要帮他把距离提高个20-30码啊。教练说，这个很难。我说，10码也好啊。教练说，这个也很难。这么多年过去了，我一直不是很相信教练的话。我的球友也确实很勤学苦练。5年多过去了，现在一开球，我的距离一般还是要比他远50码。有时候觉得这个东西很神奇，有时候又觉得很离奇，但就是搞不懂为什么。（2 011-12-31）",[15,1967,1968],{},"网友：有点困惑了。芒格说没见过40岁以下的价值投资。而你说40岁能力圈已经很确定了。感觉您说的能力圈不包含对行业和企业的了解，更侧重于对行业和企业的理解，对商业模式的理解。更强调思维模式。虽然没怎么打过golf，也不理解你朋友5年了开球没有提高，还是还和你差那么多？5年的提高也应该算是能力圈的提高啊？",[15,1970,1971,1974],{},[18,1972,1973],{},"段永平：对行业和企业的了解（和理解有一点点不一样）总是可以提高的，但人的思维方式和世界观非常难改变。"," 比如说有人认为股市就是赌场，那他们就会一直这么认为下去，怎么说都是很难改的；又比如习惯了看图看线的人们，怎么说都会时不时看一下的。以我这10年投资的经历来看，我还真没有见过谁真的变了。（2011-12-31）",[15,1976,1977],{},"网友X：想问一下如何清醒客观的认识到自己的能力圈边界呢？没有能力圈确实是不该投资，不做不懂的事。可是有时候误认为自己懂了，难道都要亏钱后才确认自己其实没真懂么。40岁前基本定型，不过20几到40之间应该有一个逐渐清晰明朗的过程，或者不一定是边界扩展，而更像是圈内从混沌到清晰的过程？",[15,1979,1980],{},"您有实业经历，又善于聚焦。我们这种非实业经历甚至非企业经历，但是对某些领域感兴趣又长期跟踪的，总是处于知识学习过程，因此会有自己能力圈越来越大，或者越来越清晰的幻觉？",[15,1982,1983,278,1985,1988],{},[18,1984,521],{},[18,1986,1987],{},"大概是要亏钱以后才会明白吧。别人不知道，我自己一般是要亏钱以后才会真正明白的。多看看老巴的东西确实有些帮助。"," 无论如何，我们每个人都有个或大或小的能力圈，而且不管发生什么，一般最后大家都会回到自己的能力圈内的。我只是觉得主动在里面呆着比被打回来要好很多而已。",[15,1990,1991],{},"另外，你说的善于聚焦大概是源于习惯。凡事喜欢想明白所以然的习惯其实是可以学的，至少40岁以前可以学哈，也许养成坏习惯后就不容易改了。（2011-12-31）",[15,1993,1994],{},"05．网友：现在的感觉就是越学习越胆小，反而越不感出手，感觉真正理解一个行业和一个企业真的很难。",[15,1996,1997,1999],{},[18,1998,20],{}," 能够胆小就是进步。理解和搞懂一个企业确实是很难的。我做企业这么多年，开始投资以来觉得自己大致搞得蛮懂的企业不超过10家（排除的不算），下重手的不超过5家，大概平均两年一家而已。（2012-06-26）",[15,2001,2002],{},"06．任俊杰：买股票就是买生意对你来说也许很简单，但对大多数人来说（我个人观察）几乎就是一个传说（大多言行不一）。一个有趣的问题。对有些人，是不懂生意；对有些人，大概似乎好像也不尽然。",[15,2004,2005,2008],{},[18,2006,2007],{},"段永平：我懂的生意非常少，和很多人的差别在于我承认我懂的少，所以就变简单了"," 。（2018-08-10）",[15,2010,2011],{},"07．网友：请问段老师，您对例如新基制药、百济神州、信达生物等创新药企业关注过吗？您对例如美国CVS等垄断的医药医药销售企业关注吗？在您看来，关注和不关注制药业的缘由是什么呢？",[15,2013,2014,2016],{},[18,2015,521],{}," ：我从来没接触过制药行业，也不打算再花时间去搞懂了。我懂的东西虽然不多，但小日子应该能过了，有时间要干些自己喜欢的事情。（2019-04-10）",[15,2018,2019],{},[18,2020,2021],{},"6．不频繁决策（less is more少即是多）",[15,2023,2024,2026],{},[18,2025,20],{}," 不要一年做20个决策。1年做20个决策，肯定会出错，那不是价值投资。一辈子做20个投资决策就够了。（2018-09-30）",[15,2028,2029],{},"01．网友：请教个问题。作为一个普通而不是专业的投资人，能力圈肯定是比较小的，能看懂的行业和企业肯定范围很小。能在低价买进的机会更少，对于我们来说价值投资就是等待，不知对不？",[15,2031,2032,2034],{},[18,2033,20],{}," 任何人都不是每天都有机会的。好像巴菲特说过，一个人一生当中能有4-5次机会就很不错了。关键是，当机会出现时你是否能抓住。你说的等待也是很好的理解。每个人总是会懂点什么东西的，什么都不懂的人真的不多。（2010-03-27）",[15,2036,2037],{},"02．网友：段大哥：您说：有很多人，一辈子都不懂，所以一辈子都不碰股票，他们也是最好的价值投资者。这样的人很难找呀。我们有时候手里有好多现金的时候心里难受啊。您同意价值投资者的最高境界是非常有耐心？宁可不做，不要做错？",[15,2039,2040,2042],{},[18,2041,20],{}," 是啊，尽管我也很难做到。按巴菲特和芒格的意思，一年出手一次就算很多了。仔细想起来，我过去如果能做到这一点，可能会多赚很多钱。总的来讲，看准了出手就要狠。似懂非懂很难下手狠。耐心等待总是有机会的。（2010-06-02）",[15,2044,2045],{},"03．引用巴菲特语录",[15,2047,2048],{},"What we learn from history is that people don't learn from history.",[15,2050,2051],{},"我在历史中学到的唯一东西就是：大众从未从历史中汲取教训。",[15,2053,2054,2056],{},[18,2055,20],{}," 所以投资总是有机会的。（2012-07-28）",[15,2058,2059],{},"04．网友：段总，比如无形资产很值钱的企业，你会不会给高点价格？像贵州茅台这种不可复制的企业，如果价格不出高点话即使在熊市也很难买到！",[15,2061,2062,2064,2065,2068],{},[18,2063,20],{}," 呵呵，市场有时挺明白的。便宜货不是随时都有，更不是看完巴菲特的书就能马上找到的。",[18,2066,2067],{},"茅台不是有过很便宜的时候吗？便宜的股票当然是很难买到的，但早晚都会出现在市场上。"," （2010-03-19）",[15,2070,2071],{},"05．引用：段永平点评芒格主义",[15,2073,2074],{},"如果你把我们15个最好的决策剔除，我们的业绩将会非常平庸（游戏的重点）。你需要的不是大量的行动，而是极大的耐心。你必须坚持原则，等到机会来临，你就用力去抓住它们。",[15,2076,2077,2079],{},[18,2078,20],{}," 平均两年做一个大的投资决策的效果肯定比一年做两个更好。（2012-06-26）",[15,2081,2082,2084],{},[18,2083,521],{}," ：我自己从事企业经营只有10多年，之后开始投资到现在也差不多10年。在这10年里在有兴趣的企业里我大致看懂了不到10家企业（被排除的不算，投错的不算）重手投了5家，差不多两年一家，没想象的那么难吧？",[15,2086,2087],{},"什么，你投的企业比我多多了？那你要小心了，一般而言，超出一定量以后，投的企业越多赚的越少。（2012-06-24）",[15,2089,2090,2092,2093,2096],{},[18,2091,20],{}," 大道这4年里只真正出手了一次，就是苹果，上一次出手是GE，大概这是其会成为极少数人的原因？",[18,2094,2095],{},"如果大道只敢平均两年出手一次，凭什么“散户”可以出手更多？"," （2012-07-17）",[15,2098,2099],{},"网友：反思！",[15,2101,2102,2104],{},[18,2103,20],{}," 突然觉得自己像个无招的剑客。开始得意不是什么好事，突然又想起会飞的猪。（2012-07-17）",[15,2106,2107],{},"06．网友：段哥，大量买入网易和UHAL似乎都发生在2002、2003年左右，最近三五年有没有比较经典的大手笔投资的案例（除了苹果）？",[15,2109,2110,2112],{},[18,2111,20],{}," 最好把网易也除掉，我就快成笑话了。（芒格语）2012-02-02",[15,2114,2115],{},"网友补充：芒格说过“伯克希尔·哈撒韦除去10个投资就是个笑话”，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司成立57年了。",[15,2117,2118],{},[18,2119,2120],{},"7．不做短期的投机",[15,2122,2123,2125],{},[18,2124,20],{}," 不做短期的投机。有人说这件事我不指望赚钱，就当消费玩玩，一次一次这样就不聚焦了。常在河边走，难免会湿鞋，湿一回鞋子就会湿一辈子。（2018-09-30）",[15,2127,2128],{},"网友：判断高低涨跌这些东西太复杂了，这是自己能力圈之外的东西，也是害人的东西，它让我们只见树木不见森林，只拣芝麻不抱西瓜。",[15,2130,2131,2134],{},[18,2132,2133],{},"段永平：变现容易，进出方便，是绝大多数人投资亏损的首因"," 。（2011-12-13）",[15,2136,2137],{},[18,2138,2139,2140,2144],{},"8．对有",[26,2141,2143],{"href":2142},"\u002Flibrary\u002Ffuzhai","负债","的公司不太愿意重仓",[15,2146,2147,2149],{},[18,2148,20],{}," 更健康更长久我们已经提了很多年了。我们认为，要做到更健康更长久，除了应该知道我们该做什么外，更重要的是需要知道什么不该做。",[15,2151,2152,2153,2156],{},"我们是有个不短的stop doing list的，今天举个小例子：芒格说如果知道自己会死在哪里就坚决不去那里。",[18,2154,2155],{},"多数企业最后都是死在资金链断裂上（实际上绝大多数情况下这只是表象而不是原因）"," 。我们公司是基本没有贷款的，虽然很久以前银行就给了我们不少额度。投资也一样，不用margin！（2016-11-10）",[15,2158,2159,278,2161,2167],{},[18,2160,521],{},[18,2162,2163,2164,2166],{},"我个人一般对有",[26,2165,2143],{"href":2142},"的公司不太愿意重仓，另外就是无论多有把握也绝对不要用margin。"," （2013-02-19）",[15,2169,2170,2171,2173,2174,2176],{},"01．网友：当然还要看看段老师提到的负债率，我个人偏爱低",[26,2172,2143],{"href":2142},"、零",[26,2175,2143],{"href":2142},"的公司。还要看看资本开支，有不少公司是资本黑洞，利润只是纸上富贵。有些公司多年以来全部利润再投入都不够，还要增发或举债，我会避开此类公司，哪怕利润表很漂亮：）",[15,2178,2179,2181,2182,2184,2185,2187],{},[18,2180,521],{}," ：我也尽量避开。GE对我来讲是个例外，但GE的",[26,2183,2143],{"href":2142},"有点像银行的",[26,2186,2143],{"href":2142},"。（2010-04-04）",[15,2189,2190,2192,2193,2195],{},[18,2191,521],{}," ：反正一般",[26,2194,2143],{"href":2142},"多的公司我也不买，ge例外了一次。（2010-04-23）",[15,2197,2198],{},"02．网友：想到一个问题：如果投了一个负债率很高的企业，对于投资者而言，这属于使用Margin吗？",[15,2200,2201,2203],{},[18,2202,521],{}," ：似乎不属于直接用margin，不会导致你需要富两次。但是，我是不太喜欢买负债率高的企业的，除非我能特别懂。（2016-11-12）",[15,2205,2206],{},"03．网友：股市里常说不借钱投资。那在自己公司经营过程中，要不要借钱来经营呢？这个问题很蠢",[15,2208,2209,2212],{},[18,2210,2211],{},"段永平：经营中借钱和买股票用margin没啥本质区别，常用最后大概率都会倒在上面的"," 。（2020-10-20）",[15,2214,2215],{},"04．引用：巴菲特1990年给伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东的信：",[15,2217,2218],{},"“我们被告知，大量的债务会让经营管理者比以往更加努力专注，就像在汽车的方向盘上装上一把匕首会让驾驶员异常小心的驾驶。我们承认，这种让人集中注意力的方式会造就一个非常警惕的驾驶员。但另外一个肯定的后果则是，一旦汽车碰上即使是最小的小坑或者一点冰，将导致一场致命而且不必要的事故。（2012-01-12）",[15,2220,2221],{},[18,2222,2223],{},"总结：",[15,2225,2226],{},"01．网友：在10年投资中都犯过哪些错误？",[15,2228,2229,2231],{},[18,2230,521],{}," ：这些年犯得错误就那几个：做了自己其实不懂的东西，借过钱，做过空。所有的错误都和这些有关。以后不会再做空和借钱，但可能还会有机会做以为自己懂了其实还是没搞懂的东西。所以犯错率大幅度下降了。（2010-03-06）",[15,2233,2234,278,2236,2239],{},[18,2235,521],{},[18,2237,2238],{},"其实我最大的财富就是我犯过的这些错误，巴菲特也是"," 。（2010-05-05）",[15,2241,2242],{},"02．引用：段永平点评芒格主义",[15,2244,2245],{},"如果想提高你的认知能力，忘记过去犯过的错误是坚决不行的。",[15,2247,2248,2250],{},[18,2249,521],{}," ：想起小偷被抓以后，满脑子都是如何改进偷技的想法的那个故事。",[15,2252,2253],{},"所以这里的错误有两种性质的：1．做了错的事情---以后不能再做---放上stop doing list。2．在把事情做对上犯了错误--这个不可避免，但可以通过学习改进。那个小偷犯的是第一个错，但用的是第二个的改进办法，会更糟的。（2012-06-26）",[15,2255,2256],{},"03．引用：段永平点评芒格主义",[15,2258,2259],{},[18,2260,2261],{},"最好是从别人的悲惨经历中学到深刻教训，而不是自己的。我们有些成功是早就预言的，有些是意外获得的。",[15,2263,2264,278,2266],{},[18,2265,521],{},[18,2267,2268],{},"不听老人言，吃苦在眼前和眼后。看了这句话以后，其实大多数人们还是不会听的。",[15,2270,2271],{},[18,2272,2273],{},"能从自己的错误里吸取教训就已经很了不起了，能从别人的错误里吸取教训的那都是天才。",[15,2275,2276],{},"坚持犯自己犯过的错误的人也不用太不高兴啊，至少股市上85%以上的人是这样的。有人陪总是一件不错的事情。（2012-06-26）",[15,2278,2279],{},"网友：大道老师，我昨晚思考成功路上有对的事，也有错的事在等着。不为清单，是把错的事标记起来。走的时候可以提醒自己，或者避开。这样前进的时候顺利一些，安全一些。不然经常掉下去，再爬起来，浪费了时间，还会损失后退。我这样理解不为清单行吗？请大道指导纠正。",[15,2281,2282,2284],{},[18,2283,20],{}," 我觉得可以这样理解。（2019-09-15）",{"title":2286,"searchDepth":2287,"depth":2287,"links":2288},"",2,[2289,2290,2291,2292],{"id":38,"depth":2287,"text":39},{"id":266,"depth":2287,"text":267},{"id":537,"depth":2287,"text":538},{"id":1068,"depth":2287,"text":1069},"投资问答录",null,"段永平投资理念核心：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买未来现金流折现，强调能力圈、生意模式与理性思考。","md",{},true,410,"\u002Fdao\u002Finvestment-logic\u002Fduanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian",{"title":5,"description":2295},"投资逻辑篇：第1章：投资理念｜大道总纲","duanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian","dao\u002Finvestment-logic\u002Fduanyongping-touziluoji-di1zhang-touzilinian","VPZiZOhwZixHfv-8hwbnjzQSIFhbAjoIotfsYPXv8eY","dao",[2308,2313,2317,2321,2324,2327,2330,2334,2337,2340,2344,2347,2350,2354,2357,2360,2364,2367,2370,2374,2377,2380,2384,2387,2390,2394,2397,2400,2404,2407,2410,2414,2417,2420,2424,2427,2430,2434,2437,2440,2444,2447,2450,2454,2457,2460,2464,2467,2470,2474,2477,2480,2484,2487,2490,2494,2497,2500,2504,2507,2510,2514,2517,2520,2524,2527,2530,2534,2537,2540,2544,2547,2550,2554,2557,2560,2564,2567,2570,2574,2577,2580,2584,2587,2590,2594,2597,2600,2604,2607,2610,2614,2617,2620,2624,2627,2630,2634,2637,2640,2644,2647,2651,2654,2658,2661,2665,2668,2672,2675,2679,2682,2686,2689,2693,2696,2700,2703,2707,2710,2714,2717,2721,2724,2728,2731,2735,2738,2742,2745,2749,2752,2756,2759,2763,2766,2770,2773,2777,2780,2784,2787,2791,2794,2798,2801,2805,2808,2812,2815,2819,2822,2826,2829,2833,2836,2840,2843,2847,2850,2854,2857,2861,2864,2868,2871,2875,2878,2882,2885,2889,2892,2896,2899,2903,2906,2910,2913,2917,2920,2924,2927,2931,2934,2938,2941,2945,2948,2952,2955,2959,2962,2966,2969,2973,2976,2980,2983,2987,2990,2994,2997,3001,3004,3008,3011,3015,3018,3022,3025,3029,3032,3036,3039,3043,3046,3050,3053,3057,3060,3064,3067,3071,3074,3078,3081,3085,3088,3092,3095,3099,3102,3106,3109,3113,3117,3121,3125,3129,3133,3137,3141,3145,3149,3153,3157,3161,3165,3169,3173,3177,3181,3185,3189,3193,3197,3201,3205,3209,3213,3217,3221,3225,3229,3233,3237,3241,3245,3249,3253,3257,3261,3265,3269,3273,3277,3281,3285,3289,3293,3297,3301,3305,3309],{"title":2309,"slug":2310,"category":2311,"order":2312},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":2314,"slug":2315,"category":2316,"order":2312},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian","访谈与文章",{"title":2318,"slug":2319,"category":2320,"order":2312},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":2322,"slug":2323,"category":2311,"order":2287},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":2325,"slug":2326,"category":2316,"order":2287},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":2328,"slug":2329,"category":2320,"order":2287},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2331,"slug":2332,"category":2311,"order":2333},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",3,{"title":2335,"slug":2336,"category":2316,"order":2333},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":2338,"slug":2339,"category":2320,"order":2333},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2341,"slug":2342,"category":2311,"order":2343},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":2345,"slug":2346,"category":2316,"order":2343},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":2348,"slug":2349,"category":2320,"order":2343},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2351,"slug":2352,"category":2311,"order":2353},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":2355,"slug":2356,"category":2316,"order":2353},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":2358,"slug":2359,"category":2320,"order":2353},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2361,"slug":2362,"category":2311,"order":2363},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":2365,"slug":2366,"category":2316,"order":2363},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":2368,"slug":2369,"category":2320,"order":2363},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2371,"slug":2372,"category":2311,"order":2373},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":2375,"slug":2376,"category":2316,"order":2373},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":2378,"slug":2379,"category":2320,"order":2373},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2381,"slug":2382,"category":2311,"order":2383},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":2385,"slug":2386,"category":2316,"order":2383},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2388,"slug":2389,"category":2320,"order":2383},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2391,"slug":2392,"category":2311,"order":2393},"1962年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",9,{"title":2395,"slug":2396,"category":2316,"order":2393},"巴菲特：1977年谈通货膨胀","ba-fei-te-1977nian-tan-tong-huo-peng-zhang",{"title":2398,"slug":2399,"category":2320,"order":2393},"2002年伯克希尔股东大会","2002nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2401,"slug":2402,"category":2311,"order":2403},"1962年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",10,{"title":2405,"slug":2406,"category":2316,"order":2403},"巴菲特：1979年谈股市","ba-fei-te-1979nian-tan-gu-shi",{"title":2408,"slug":2409,"category":2320,"order":2403},"2003年伯克希尔股东大会","2003nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2411,"slug":2412,"category":2311,"order":2413},"1962年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",11,{"title":2415,"slug":2416,"category":2316,"order":2413},"巴菲特：1982年谈指数期货","ba-fei-te-1982nian-tan-zhi-shu-qi-huo",{"title":2418,"slug":2419,"category":2320,"order":2413},"2004年伯克希尔股东大会","2004nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2421,"slug":2422,"category":2311,"order":2423},"1963 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",12,{"title":2425,"slug":2426,"category":2316,"order":2423},"巴菲特：1983年写给Louie Blumkin的信（内布拉斯加州家具百货","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xie-gei-louie-blumkinde-xin-nei-bu-la-si-jia-zhou-jia-ju-bai-huo",{"title":2428,"slug":2429,"category":2320,"order":2423},"2005年伯克希尔股东大会","2005nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2431,"slug":2432,"category":2311,"order":2433},"1963年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",13,{"title":2435,"slug":2436,"category":2316,"order":2433},"巴菲特：1983年向Rose Blumkin 发出的正式意向收购书","ba-fei-te-1983nian-xiang-rose-blumkin-fa-chu-de-zheng-shi-yi-xiang-shou-gou-shu",{"title":2438,"slug":2439,"category":2320,"order":2433},"2006年伯克希尔股东大会","2006nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2441,"slug":2442,"category":2311,"order":2443},"1963年12月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-12yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",14,{"title":2445,"slug":2446,"category":2316,"order":2443},"巴菲特：1984年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1984nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2448,"slug":2449,"category":2320,"order":2443},"2007年伯克希尔股东大会","2007nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2451,"slug":2452,"category":2311,"order":2453},"1963年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1963nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",15,{"title":2455,"slug":2456,"category":2316,"order":2453},"巴菲特：1985年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1985nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":2458,"slug":2459,"category":2320,"order":2453},"2008年伯克希尔股东大会","2008nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2461,"slug":2462,"category":2311,"order":2463},"1964 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",16,{"title":2465,"slug":2466,"category":2316,"order":2463},"巴菲特：1986年《如何驯服“赌场社会”》","ba-fei-te-1986nian-ru-he-xun-fu-du-chang-she-hui",{"title":2468,"slug":2469,"category":2320,"order":2463},"2009年伯克希尔股东大会","2009nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2471,"slug":2472,"category":2311,"order":2473},"1964年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1964nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",17,{"title":2475,"slug":2476,"category":2316,"order":2473},"巴菲特：1986年在《华尔街日报》刊登的收购广告","ba-fei-te-1986nian-zai-hua-er-jie-ri-bao-kan-deng-de-shou-gou-guang-gao",{"title":2478,"slug":2479,"category":2320,"order":2473},"2010年伯克希尔股东大会","2010nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2481,"slug":2482,"category":2311,"order":2483},"1965 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",18,{"title":2485,"slug":2486,"category":2316,"order":2483},"巴菲特：1987年-关于股票指数期货的早期担忧","ba-fei-te-1987nian-guan-yu-gu-piao-zhi-shu-qi-huo-de-zao-qi-dan-you",{"title":2488,"slug":2489,"category":2320,"order":2483},"2011年伯克希尔股东大会","2011nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2491,"slug":2492,"category":2311,"order":2493},"1965 巴菲特致股东信","1965-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",19,{"title":2495,"slug":2496,"category":2316,"order":2493},"巴菲特：1987年-我们可以从费雪（Phil Fisher）身上学到什么","ba-fei-te-1987nian-wo-men-ke-yi-cong-fei-xue-phil-fisher-shen-shang-xue-dao-shi-me",{"title":2498,"slug":2499,"category":2320,"order":2493},"2012年伯克希尔股东大会","2012nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2501,"slug":2502,"category":2311,"order":2503},"1965年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",20,{"title":2505,"slug":2506,"category":2316,"order":2503},"巴菲特：1988年谈投资","ba-fei-te-1988nian-tan-tou-zi",{"title":2508,"slug":2509,"category":2320,"order":2503},"2013年伯克希尔股东大会","2013nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2511,"slug":2512,"category":2311,"order":2513},"1965年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1965nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",21,{"title":2515,"slug":2516,"category":2316,"order":2513},"巴菲特：1990年斯坦福法学院演讲","ba-fei-te-1990nian-si-tan-fu-fa-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2518,"slug":2519,"category":2320,"order":2513},"2014年伯克希尔股东大会","2014nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2521,"slug":2522,"category":2311,"order":2523},"1966 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",22,{"title":2525,"slug":2526,"category":2316,"order":2523},"巴菲特：1991年 年喜诗糖果70 周年纪念","ba-fei-te-1991nian-nian-xi-shi-tang-guo-70-zhou-nian-ji-nian",{"title":2528,"slug":2529,"category":2320,"order":2523},"2015年伯克希尔股东大会","2015nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2531,"slug":2532,"category":2311,"order":2533},"1966 巴菲特致股东信","1966-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",23,{"title":2535,"slug":2536,"category":2316,"order":2533},"巴菲特：1991年圣母大学演讲","ba-fei-te-1991nian-sheng-mu-da-xue-yan-jiang",{"title":2538,"slug":2539,"category":2320,"order":2533},"2016年伯克希尔股东大会","2016nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2541,"slug":2542,"category":2311,"order":2543},"1966年11月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1966nian-11yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",24,{"title":2545,"slug":2546,"category":2316,"order":2543},"巴菲特：1991年巴菲特致所罗门股东信","ba-fei-te-1991nian-ba-fei-te-zhi-suo-luo-men-gu-dong-xin",{"title":2548,"slug":2549,"category":2320,"order":2543},"2017年伯克希尔股东大会","2017nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":2551,"slug":2552,"category":2311,"order":2553},"1966年中 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巴菲特致股东信","1970-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",40,{"title":2687,"slug":2688,"category":2316,"order":2685},"巴菲特：2002年哥大商学院演讲","ba-fei-te-2002nian-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-yan-jiang",{"title":2690,"slug":2691,"category":2311,"order":2692},"1970年2月 巴菲特致合伙人信","1970nian-2yue-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",41,{"title":2694,"slug":2695,"category":2316,"order":2692},"巴菲特：2002年股票期权与常识","ba-fei-te-2002nian-gu-piao-qi-quan-yu-chang-shi",{"title":2697,"slug":2698,"category":2311,"order":2699},"1971 巴菲特致股东信","1971-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",42,{"title":2701,"slug":2702,"category":2316,"order":2699},"巴菲特：2002年谁是真正的账房先生","ba-fei-te-2002nian-shui-shi-zhen-zheng-de-zhang-fang-xian-sheng",{"title":2704,"slug":2705,"category":2311,"order":2706},"1972 巴菲特致股东信","1972-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",43,{"title":2708,"slug":2709,"category":2316,"order":2706},"巴菲特：2003年《美国正滑向贸易赤字的危险边缘》","ba-fei-te-2003nian-mei-guo-zheng-hua-xiang-mao-yi-chi-zi-de-wei-xian-bian-yuan",{"title":2711,"slug":2712,"category":2311,"order":2713},"1973 巴菲特致股东信","1973-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",44,{"title":2715,"slug":2716,"category":2316,"order":2713},"巴菲特：2003年内布拉斯加大学 林肯分校--领导力课程演讲","ba-fei-te-2003nian-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-lin-ken-fen-xiao-ling-dao-li-ke-cheng-yan-jiang",{"title":2718,"slug":2719,"category":2311,"order":2720},"1974 巴菲特致股东信","1974-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",45,{"title":2722,"slug":2723,"category":2316,"order":2720},"巴菲特：2003年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2725,"slug":2726,"category":2311,"order":2727},"1975 巴菲特致股东信","1975-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",46,{"title":2729,"slug":2730,"category":2316,"order":2727},"巴菲特：2003年对话田纳西大学学生","ba-fei-te-2003nian-dui-hua-tian-na-xi-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2732,"slug":2733,"category":2311,"order":2734},"1976 巴菲特致股东信","1976-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",47,{"title":2736,"slug":2737,"category":2316,"order":2734},"巴菲特：2003年我为什么不看好美元","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-wei-shi-me-bu-kan-hao-mei-yuan",{"title":2739,"slug":2740,"category":2311,"order":2741},"1977 巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":2743,"slug":2744,"category":2316,"order":2741},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":2746,"slug":2747,"category":2311,"order":2748},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":2750,"slug":2751,"category":2316,"order":2748},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":2753,"slug":2754,"category":2311,"order":2755},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":2757,"slug":2758,"category":2316,"order":2755},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2760,"slug":2761,"category":2311,"order":2762},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":2764,"slug":2765,"category":2316,"order":2762},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":2767,"slug":2768,"category":2311,"order":2769},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":2771,"slug":2772,"category":2316,"order":2769},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":2774,"slug":2775,"category":2311,"order":2776},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":2778,"slug":2779,"category":2316,"order":2776},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2781,"slug":2782,"category":2311,"order":2783},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":2785,"slug":2786,"category":2316,"order":2783},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":2788,"slug":2789,"category":2311,"order":2790},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":2792,"slug":2793,"category":2316,"order":2790},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":2795,"slug":2796,"category":2311,"order":2797},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":2799,"slug":2800,"category":2316,"order":2797},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":2802,"slug":2803,"category":2311,"order":2804},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":2806,"slug":2807,"category":2316,"order":2804},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":2809,"slug":2810,"category":2311,"order":2811},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":2813,"slug":2814,"category":2316,"order":2811},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2816,"slug":2817,"category":2311,"order":2818},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":2820,"slug":2821,"category":2316,"order":2818},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2823,"slug":2824,"category":2311,"order":2825},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":2827,"slug":2828,"category":2316,"order":2825},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2830,"slug":2831,"category":2311,"order":2832},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":2834,"slug":2835,"category":2316,"order":2832},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":2837,"slug":2838,"category":2311,"order":2839},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":2841,"slug":2842,"category":2316,"order":2839},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":2844,"slug":2845,"category":2311,"order":2846},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":2848,"slug":2849,"category":2316,"order":2846},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":2851,"slug":2852,"category":2311,"order":2853},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":2855,"slug":2856,"category":2316,"order":2853},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":2858,"slug":2859,"category":2311,"order":2860},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":2862,"slug":2863,"category":2316,"order":2860},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":2865,"slug":2866,"category":2311,"order":2867},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":2869,"slug":2870,"category":2316,"order":2867},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":2872,"slug":2873,"category":2311,"order":2874},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":2876,"slug":2877,"category":2316,"order":2874},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":2879,"slug":2880,"category":2311,"order":2881},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":2883,"slug":2884,"category":2316,"order":2881},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":2886,"slug":2887,"category":2311,"order":2888},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":2890,"slug":2891,"category":2316,"order":2888},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":2893,"slug":2894,"category":2311,"order":2895},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":2897,"slug":2898,"category":2316,"order":2895},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":2900,"slug":2901,"category":2311,"order":2902},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":2904,"slug":2905,"category":2316,"order":2902},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":2907,"slug":2908,"category":2311,"order":2909},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":2911,"slug":2912,"category":2316,"order":2909},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":2914,"slug":2915,"category":2311,"order":2916},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":2918,"slug":2919,"category":2316,"order":2916},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":2921,"slug":2922,"category":2311,"order":2923},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":2925,"slug":2926,"category":2316,"order":2923},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2928,"slug":2929,"category":2311,"order":2930},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":2932,"slug":2933,"category":2316,"order":2930},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2935,"slug":2936,"category":2311,"order":2937},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":2939,"slug":2940,"category":2316,"order":2937},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":2942,"slug":2943,"category":2311,"order":2944},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":2946,"slug":2947,"category":2316,"order":2944},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":2949,"slug":2950,"category":2311,"order":2951},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":2953,"slug":2954,"category":2316,"order":2951},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":2956,"slug":2957,"category":2311,"order":2958},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":2960,"slug":2961,"category":2316,"order":2958},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":2963,"slug":2964,"category":2311,"order":2965},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":2967,"slug":2968,"category":2316,"order":2965},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":2970,"slug":2971,"category":2311,"order":2972},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":2974,"slug":2975,"category":2316,"order":2972},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":2977,"slug":2978,"category":2311,"order":2979},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":2981,"slug":2982,"category":2316,"order":2979},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2984,"slug":2985,"category":2311,"order":2986},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":2988,"slug":2989,"category":2316,"order":2986},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":2991,"slug":2992,"category":2311,"order":2993},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":2995,"slug":2996,"category":2316,"order":2993},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":2998,"slug":2999,"category":2311,"order":3000},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":3002,"slug":3003,"category":2316,"order":3000},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":3005,"slug":3006,"category":2311,"order":3007},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":3009,"slug":3010,"category":2316,"order":3007},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":3012,"slug":3013,"category":2311,"order":3014},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":3016,"slug":3017,"category":2316,"order":3014},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":3019,"slug":3020,"category":2311,"order":3021},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":3023,"slug":3024,"category":2316,"order":3021},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":3026,"slug":3027,"category":2311,"order":3028},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":3030,"slug":3031,"category":2316,"order":3028},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3033,"slug":3034,"category":2311,"order":3035},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":3037,"slug":3038,"category":2316,"order":3035},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":3040,"slug":3041,"category":2311,"order":3042},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":3044,"slug":3045,"category":2316,"order":3042},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":3047,"slug":3048,"category":2311,"order":3049},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":3051,"slug":3052,"category":2316,"order":3049},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3054,"slug":3055,"category":2311,"order":3056},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":3058,"slug":3059,"category":2316,"order":3056},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":3061,"slug":3062,"category":2311,"order":3063},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":3065,"slug":3066,"category":2316,"order":3063},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":3068,"slug":3069,"category":2311,"order":3070},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":3072,"slug":3073,"category":2316,"order":3070},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":3075,"slug":3076,"category":2311,"order":3077},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":3079,"slug":3080,"category":2316,"order":3077},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":3082,"slug":3083,"category":2311,"order":3084},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":3086,"slug":3087,"category":2316,"order":3084},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":3089,"slug":3090,"category":2311,"order":3091},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":3093,"slug":3094,"category":2316,"order":3091},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":3096,"slug":3097,"category":2311,"order":3098},"2025 感恩节致辞","2025-gan-en-jie-zhi-ci",99,{"title":3100,"slug":3101,"category":2316,"order":3098},"巴菲特：2011年查理·罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":3103,"slug":3104,"category":2311,"order":3105},"2026 阿贝尔致股东信","2026-a-bei-er-zhi-gu-dong-xin",100,{"title":3107,"slug":3108,"category":2316,"order":3105},"巴菲特：为何股票能跑赢黄金与债券","ba-fei-te-2012nian-wei-he-gu-piao-neng-pao-ying-huang-jin-yu-zhai-quan",{"title":3110,"slug":3111,"category":2316,"order":3112},"巴菲特：2012年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2012nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",101,{"title":3114,"slug":3115,"category":2316,"order":3116},"巴菲特：2012年跳着踢踏舞去上班","ba-fei-te-2012nian-tiao-zhao-ti-ta-wu-qu-shang-ban",102,{"title":3118,"slug":3119,"category":2316,"order":3120},"巴菲特：2013年 《沃伦·巴菲特的办公时间访谈》","ba-fei-te-2013nian-wo-lun-ba-fei-te-de-ban-gong-shi-jian-fang-tan",103,{"title":3122,"slug":3123,"category":2316,"order":3124},"巴菲特：2013年乔治城大学演讲","ba-fei-te-2013nian-qiao-zhi-cheng-da-xue-yan-jiang",104,{"title":3126,"slug":3127,"category":2316,"order":3128},"巴菲特：2013年如何教孩子理财","ba-fei-te-2013nian-ru-he-jiao-hai-zi-li-cai",105,{"title":3130,"slug":3131,"category":2316,"order":3132},"巴菲特：2013年家族三代谈慈善","ba-fei-te-2013nian-jia-zu-san-dai-tan-ci-shan",106,{"title":3134,"slug":3135,"category":2316,"order":3136},"巴菲特：2013年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2013nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",107,{"title":3138,"slug":3139,"category":2316,"order":3140},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年3月3日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-3yue-3ri",108,{"title":3142,"slug":3143,"category":2316,"order":3144},"巴菲特：2014年CNBC 专访2014年5月5日","ba-fei-te-2014nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang-2014nian-5yue-5ri",109,{"title":3146,"slug":3147,"category":2316,"order":3148},"巴菲特：2014年与ivey商学院MBA学生会面纪要","ba-fei-te-2014nian-yu-iveyshang-xue-yuan-mbaxue-sheng-hui-mian-ji-yao",110,{"title":3150,"slug":3151,"category":2316,"order":3152},"巴菲特：2014年关于游牧者基金","ba-fei-te-2014nian-guan-yu-you-mu-zhe-ji-jin",111,{"title":3154,"slug":3155,"category":2316,"order":3156},"巴菲特：2014年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2014nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",112,{"title":3158,"slug":3159,"category":2316,"order":3160},"巴菲特：2014年谈可口可乐薪酬方案","ba-fei-te-2014nian-tan-ke-kou-ke-le-xin-chou-fang-an",113,{"title":3162,"slug":3163,"category":2316,"order":3164},"巴菲特：2015年对话IVEY 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