[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2014},["ShallowReactive",2],{"library-kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi":3,"library-sidebar-buffett":479,"library-sidebar-dao":1480,"library-sidebar-models":1782},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":465,"date":466,"description":467,"extension":468,"meta":469,"navigation":470,"order":471,"path":472,"seo":473,"seoDescription":467,"seoTitle":474,"slug":475,"stem":476,"__hash__":477,"_collection":478},"buffett\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fkang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi.md","康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":454},"minimark",[9,13,17,21,24,36,40,43,53,56,67,70,74,80,86,90,93,129,146,156,166,169,172,175,182,185,188,195,200,205,209,216,223,230,233,236,239,254,257,261,267,271,282,286,289,292,298,301,304,310,313,317,327,330,333,336,339,345,348,351,354,361,364,370,373,403,410,413,416,423,427,434,437,447],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"康布斯在普通股中寻找价值",[14,15,5],"h2",{"id":16},"康布斯在普通股中寻找价值-1",[18,19,20],"p",{},"《证券分析》第七版 Todd Combs",[18,22,23],{},"在格雷厄姆和多德的《证券分析》首次出版90 多年后，它所阐述的许多原则(如果不是大多数)仍然适用。当然，对潜在投资标的进行全面分析的必要性和下跌保护的重要性，现在与我多年前第一次阅读《证券分析》时产生的共鸣一样强烈。鉴于作者在写作时正是1929 年大崩溃之后，而且正值大萧条时期，他们的投资方法是完全可以理解的。格雷厄姆和多德认为，投资可以被视为一门\"保守的艺术\"，更多的是关注下跌的保护而不是去追求上涨。当做好了这一点，投资还需要学习如何处理信息，以确定什么时候赔率对你有利；其目标是根据事实而非故事做出有依据的赌注。在投资和生活中，你无法选择结果，但你可以选择可能使你得到你想要的结果的决定。凭借这样永恒的智慧，《证券分析》保持了它的实用性。事实上，它一直是我职业生涯中的一个宝贵支柱。",[18,25,26,27,35],{},"《证券分析》出版于工业革命的后期，",[28,29,30,31,34],"strong",{},"当时的伟大企业都是大规模的资本密集型企业。维护工厂和机器设备需要大量的资本支出，而扩大业务则需要投入更多的资本。",[28,32,33],{},"与今天的大型企业相比，最终结果是投入资本回报率很低。在过去的一个世纪里，商业和投资的世界已经发生了很大的变化，当今许多最大的公司在有形资产上的投资规模有限，但却有着非凡的现金产出能力。在许多情况下，他们的","主要资产是人才、知识产权和品牌","；没有装配生产线或炼钢高炉，没有机车或蒸汽挖掘机。这类企业的利润率远远高于过去几代典型的重资产公司。因此，当今公司的价值与其实物资产的价值关联较少。这可能需要我们调整分析的方法以适应今天的商业现实，但格雷厄姆和多德提出的原始概念仍保持不变：(1)通过仔细评估和分析企业的盈利能力，可以不精确但相对合理准确的确定企业的内在价值；(2)以低于这些内在价值的价格去购买股票，可以获得投资的机会。但是，现在要怎样才能确定一家公司的内在价值呢？我们将努力找出答案。",[37,38,39],"h3",{"id":39},"经验教训",[18,41,42],{},"投资股票被描述为简单但不容易。诸如\"不要支付过高的价格\"、\"选择优秀的管理团队\"、\"避免投机\"、\"要有耐心\"、\"核实财务报表的准确性\"、\"市场是投票机而不是称重机\"、\"关注企业定性和定量方面\"等概念都是广为流传的，但这些概念在理论原则上比实践中更容易被引用。",[18,44,45,46,49,50],{},"我在尝试对公司进行估值的职业生涯过程中，我逐渐认识到，",[28,47,48],{},"一个好的分析师和一个伟大的分析师之间的区别在于，是否有能力把事情简化，并确定什么是最重要的","。人们误解了这一点，以为投资者只需要把研究保持在表面水平。事实上，矛盾的是，",[28,51,52],{},"保持简单需要极大的深度。分析师的工作是拆解一项投资，以了解其基本要素。一个优秀的证券分析师愿意把一家公司拆成零件，并在重新组装之前了解其每一部分。在分析师不断吸收的海量信息中，总有某一个部分比其他的部分更加重要。找到这块碎片就是其保持简单的意义所在。",[18,54,55],{},"在我脑海中印象最深刻的一个例子可以追溯到2002 年。当时我是一个年轻的分析师，正在参加一个\"支付行业\"会议，我第一次看到了万事达卡Mastercard。虽然它仍然是一家私营公司，但管理层仍介绍了该公司的情况，这引起了我的兴趣。也许是因为它是私人公司，因此没有一个明确的投资方式或从研究中获利的方式，所以我们只有少数人出席了推介会。我持续密切的关注该公司，直到2006 年春天它上市时，我感觉我已经很了解它了。该公司上市是为了募资一大笔法律和解金。万事达卡上市时，华尔街认为该公司没有定价权。毫无疑问，银行间的合并注定会挤压其利润率。但我们的看法不同。在我对万事达卡的分析中，有几个关键的定性考虑因素。例如，由于是银行从更高的手续费收入中获益(interchange revenues, 每笔信用卡交易商户都需要支付一笔Interchange Fee)，它们的激励机制实际上与万事达的激励机制是一致的，长期的定价能力可能会保持强劲。我们相信，**随着信用卡继续取代现金，增长将持续很长一段时间。**而且，股票公开上市交易(而不是由银行私有)有利于为管理层创造一个激励结构，(就像过去许多保险公司以及其他由客户拥有的公司从互助形式转向股份化一样)，使其严格管理。此外，许多明显的风险也似乎被夸大了。银行业的整合远不能确定会继续有增无减。此外，该公司面临的法律风险似乎有可能在没有重大损害的情况下得到解决。",[18,57,58,59,62,63,66],{},"投资者必须永远记住，",[28,60,61],{},"无论报表多么好看，都不是商业现实","。报表中列出的数字讲述的是一个精准的故事，但有时它并不是正确的事实。例如，",[28,64,65],{},"过度强调定量因素可能导致忽视定性因素，反之亦然","。最后，对两者同时进行评估可能是非常有价值的。",[18,68,69],{},"因为寻找简单原则的过程可能很复杂，所以我把我的分析过程分成三个因子，**即寻找到一个好生意，拥有良好管理层，以及便宜的估值。**你不需要或期望在每项投资中这三个因子都能达到相同的水准；你可以有一个可适度调低调高的浮动标准，但这这三个因子都必须存在。你可以把它看作是一个连乘公式，其中任何一个因子为零都会产生一个零的结果，无论其他因子的评价有多高。",[37,71,73],{"id":72},"保持简单原则之一-寻找好生意","保持简单原则之一 寻找好生意",[18,75,76,77],{},"我最常被问到的问题是，究竟什么才是一个好生意？简而言之，首先是拥有竞争优势，或者沃伦·巴菲特所说的\"护城河\"。",[28,78,79],{},"护城河越宽越好。再加上低资本密集度、定价能力、(持续稳定的)经常性收入、持续性和长期增长的可能性等特征，你就有了一个伟大的企业。在确定一个企业是否伟大时，我喜欢从定量方面入手：我专注于资产负债表、会计实践和单位经济学，然后转向考察现金流的生成。同时，定性方面涉及相关调查(reference calls)以评估管理层的质量，以及渠道检查(channel check)以揭示公司产品的实时销售情况。",[81,82,83],"blockquote",{},[18,84,85],{},"(channel check 渠道检查是使用独立来源而不是依赖于该公司提供的信息来调查该公司的过程。这种方法可以确定公司的真实财务状况，并确定这种状况对公司证券的未来影响)。",[87,88,89],"h4",{"id":89},"资产负债表和会计政策",[18,91,92],{},"**虽然大部分的分析重点将放在利润表上，但对资产负债表和公司的会计政策进行适当和彻底的分析，就像在一个建筑项目中打下一个坚实的基础一样。**对于一个粗心的观察者来说，它们很容易被忽视或被视为理所当然，而且它们可能在某一个时间段内非常重要。但当它们非常重要时，就像获得了氧气一样。这才是最重要的。",[18,94,95,96,108,109,120,121,124,125,128],{},"在试图确定内在价值时，",[28,97,98,99,103,104,107],{},"我喜欢从由内而外",[100,101,102],"span",{},"Inside-Out","或者由外而内",[100,105,106],{},"Outside-In","的思维方式开始(Inside-Out 方法是，基于企业内部优势和能力将创造一个可持续的优势。Outside-In 方法是，外部客户价值创造是成功的关键)","。",[28,110,111,112,115,116,119],{},"从事实",[100,113,114],{},"facts","而不是观点",[100,117,118],{},"opinions","开始","。如果你从观点开始，即使这些流行的说法与事实相悖，你也很容易坚持这些观点而固执己见。**从披露的SEC 文件、年度报告和贸易杂志文章开始，而不是从管理层或朋友的叙述或卖方的报告开始。**分析师在研究的初始阶段可能犯的最大错误是通过看收益(或者更糟糕的是，管理层对调整后收益的表述)开始进行评估。当你看这些报告的数字时，请记住，你看的不是完全客观的事实，而是管理团队对它们的看法。利润表是最近发生的事情的一个快照，而这个快照很可能是经过PS 美化过的。我想关注的是其过程",[100,122,123],{},"process","，而不是结果",[100,126,127],{},"outcomes","，所以从利润表开始是本末倒置的。",[18,130,131,145],{},[28,132,133,134,144],{},"当我们从现金流量表和资产负债表入手时，我们关注的是过程，并了解企业运行所需的资源流。",[28,135,136,137,108,140,143],{},"我不仅喜欢从广义的角度上去思考这项业务，而且喜欢从单位经济模型的角度去思考业务",[100,138,139],{},"unit economics",[28,141,142],{},"想想业务中流入企业的每一美元收入，它先通过现金流量表，然后进入资产负债表，最后是利润表","。这就是我们最终获得一个企业投入资本回报的方式，而这通常是业务质量的可靠速记。不同时间点的财务快照是必要的，但并不充分。我","喜欢回顾过去10 年的情况，并检查留存收益、债务水平和整体资本密集程度，与企业自身的最高增长时期相比较，发生了哪些变化。我通常会用杜邦分析法来总结这10 年来的情况，这是一个由杜邦公司推广的基本业绩分析框架","。该技术被用来分解股本回报率(ROE)的不同驱动因素，按年度分解利润率、资本周转率和资产回报率。",[18,147,148,149,152,153],{},"正是通过这种分析，人们可以看到",[28,150,151],{},"盈利能力随时间的变化","。当公司或行业获得超额回报时，就会引来竞争。对这种竞争的反应，通常可以从一个公司的资产负债表中看到。如果一家公司在过去10 年内创造了100 亿美元的收益，但它的留存收益水平保持不变(分红率固定)，而债务却大幅增加，那么其收益可能会增长，",[28,154,155],{},"但资产负债表上不断增长的杠杆表明，该公司仅仅是为了维持现状，可能都需要更加努力地去运营。",[18,157,158,161,162,165],{},[28,159,160],{},"资产负债表在识别资金来源和收益质量方面也非常实用","。例如，我们可能会发现，一家公司拥有短期可变利率的融资，而不是长期固定利率的负债。在这种情况下，利润表可能会报告被人为夸大的收益，这是因为高风险的融资决策，使公司极易受到利率上升的影响。一个高风险的资产负债表，加上激进的会计政策，可能成为灾难的根源。我发现，拿两家非常相似的公司，去对比他们的会计政策非常有趣。当我比较它们的资本支出的费用化与资本化、收益来自销售账户与长期持有抵押证券账户、购买法会计实践、以及资产负债表差异等因素时，我常常对其中的差异感到吃惊。问题是，收益是管理层做出的许多假设和选择的副产品。准备金的提列",[28,163,164],{},"处","理、对条件价值评估法(CVM, 基于调查的评估非市场化物品和服务价值的方式)的贴现率的选择、假定的养老金回报率，以及融资方法等等，其导致的账面收益可能被大大高估或低估。",[18,167,168],{},"这里面可以玩的会计游戏数量几乎是无限的。这些激进的措施继续影响着美国公司的盈利质量，即使是聪明的投资者也往往没有发现。千万不要把任何事情认为是理所当然的；如果它看起来好得难以置信，它可能就不是真的。激进的资产负债表和会计政策，通常与保守的管理团队或为家族后代打下基业的团队无关。它们通常与透支未来收益有关。证实和探索这一点是我们进行定性分析的基础。",[87,170,171],{"id":171},"单位经济学",[18,173,174],{},"对资产负债表机制的全面透彻的理解，将使我们随后能够识别资产负债表里的关键科目，并在微观层面上对其进行深入研究，以了解企业的单位经济模型等属性。就像你可以通过现金流量表和资产负债表减少一美元的收入或成本一样，你也可以通过复制公司单位经济模型做同样的研究。",[18,176,177,178,181],{},"例如Costco 公司，检查利润表是一回事，检查资产负债表又是另一回事，但了解单店的单位经济模型，要比去检查两张表都重要得多。虽然公司没有公开披露单店的单位经济模型，但就Costco 而言，",[28,179,180],{},"我们可以利用公司披露的信息，对建立一家商店的平均成本进行三角分析。然后，通过估算得出单店达到销售和毛利运行率的大致时间，我们可以估算出单店的投资回报率ROI","。(财务指标Revenue Run-Rate，将公司某个时期的收入转换为年度收入以获得全年等效数字，通常用于快速增长的公司，以当前数字预测未来业绩)",[18,183,184],{},"这种计算本应该充分揭示整体商业经济的信息，但往往却没有，通常有两个原因。第一个原因是，管理层通常会给出尽可能好的表述，例如，只包括可变成本和少报维持性资本支出。当投资者排除了重要的固定成本，并夸大了增长性资本支出，以使企业看起来比实际情况更好时，项目或单位经济内部收益率IRR 几乎总是被夸大。",[18,186,187],{},"与格雷厄姆对\"所有者收益\"的关注相比，这直接类似于依赖要求不高的指标EBITDA。",[18,189,190,191,194],{},"第二个原因是，",[28,192,193],{},"会计反映的前置费用(front-loaded)，往往未能与达到正常化经营状态所需的时间相匹配","。手机基站业务、一些\"剃须刀片\"业务，以及某些零售和软件业务就属于这种情况。当美国电塔公司(American Tower)平均每个手机基站有两个租户时，它是一个收支平衡的业务，但增加第三个租户后，每个基站的单位经济模型就会极其诱人，整体投资回报率也令人瞩目。同样，沃尔玛在快速增长的十多年里，没有产生收益或现金流，但看一下门店的单位经济模型就会发现真实情况，并预示着未来的情况会如何。",[18,196,197],{},[28,198,199],{},"我们的目标是通过过去的管理层讨论或分析报告来深入了解企业，就像你是老板一样。也只有这样，你才能开始把这些点联系起来。",[81,201,202],{},[18,203,204],{},"(American Tower Corporation 于1995 年创建，最初是American Radio Systems 的子公司，后于1998 年被分拆独立上市。公司总部在马萨诸塞州的波士顿，分支机构遍及美国、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、德国、加纳、印度、墨西哥、秘鲁、南非和乌干达等国家和地区。公司是一家领先的无线和广播通讯站点独立开发运营商，主要业务是向无线服务提供商、广播电视公司、无线数据和数据提供商、政府机构和市政当局及其他行业提供空间通信站点租赁业务，也提供顶棚通信站点和室外分布式天线系统(DAS)网络租赁管理和服务。)",[37,206,208],{"id":207},"保持简单原则之二-寻找优秀的管理层","保持简单原则之二 寻找优秀的管理层",[18,210,211,212,215],{},"良好管理的重要性几乎普遍被低估，然而它却是公司内在价值最关键的决定因素之一。正如格雷厄姆和多德所说：\"",[28,213,214],{},"你不能在容忍一个不择手段的管理层的情况下，去做一个定量的分析推导；处理这种情况的唯一方法是避开它们。","\"我们必须认识到，企业是由个人组成的，他们的决策和判断决定了整个企业的新陈代谢。许多分析师似乎倾向于根据传统的市场讲故事来评估管理层的质量。人们必须更深入地了解管理层。",[18,217,218,219,222],{},"评估管理层业绩记录的方法，",[28,220,221],{},"是去检查他们的激励机制，了解他们如何安排时间的，并进行一些闲聊调查","。请注意，我没有提到去听投资者日的路演或去拜见管理层。检查一个管理团队的业绩记录需要一个全面、详细和细致入微的视角。",[18,224,225,226,229],{},"企业转型成功或走向衰败可能需要很长的时间。3 年、5 年、甚至10 年前做出的决定，很可能仍然影响着今天的收益。",[28,227,228],{},"一个今天看起来做得很好的经理人，实际上可能是受益于多年前播种下的种子","。与此同时，公司运营所处的经济环境复杂多变，有时甚至是巨大的变化。正如一个不断上涨的市场，会让任何投资砖家看起来比自己更聪明一样。持续的经济顺风，也可以使公司管理团队比实际的他们看起来更聪明。今天的优势可能成为明天的劣势，要么是因为自身根深蒂固的脆弱性，要么仅仅是因为竞争态势已经发生了根本变化。例如，外包模式可以使一个公司的利润率持续增加数十年，直到这个模式明显地走得太远，公司的基本竞争能力已经被完全掏空。",[18,231,232],{},"良好的资本配置能力是至关重要的；一家出色的业务和一个才华横溢的CEO 都不足以抵消糟糕的资本配置。太多的公司以高于内在价值的价格回购股票，去追求破坏价值的并购，或者未能根据不断变化的经济环境或突发投资机会而去调整其资本配置。资本配置是潜在投资者必须考察的业绩记录中最重要的部分之一。",[87,234,235],{"id":235},"检查激励措施",[18,237,238],{},"有人说，检查激励措施就能解释业绩结果。虽然我们知道，在经营企业的过程中，长期视角至关重要，但往往存在一些糟糕的激励导致过于短期化。一家伟大企业的私人所有者，并不会担心季度收益报告，而去满足市场预期，向销售渠道压货，追求积极的会计处理，或排斥长期投资以改善当期报告的短期业绩。",[18,240,241,242,245,246,249,250,253],{},"为了更好地了解管理层的激励机制，我从投票权委托书开始，寻找每年的变化。管理层薪酬和股票期权激励的依据是否合理？",[28,243,244],{},"他们是以长期的业绩来衡量，还是以有利的短期股价波动来衡量","，而这种股价的波动可能纯粹是运气甚至是操纵的结果？",[28,247,248],{},"他们的激励是依据实际的资本回报，还是仅仅无利可图的收入增长？他们是否为CEO创造不对称的好处而承担了超额风险","？CEO 是出于\"个人原因\"定期出售其股份？",[28,251,252],{},"或者他们是否表现得像一个真正的所有者和受托人那样行事","？如果公司是私有的，CEO 的报酬和激励结构会有多大不同？",[18,255,256],{},"市场专家可能会过度关注管理层薪酬的绝对水平，而不是为实现该薪酬所需的具体激励措辞。当激励是为了奖励实现苛刻的目标和交付特殊的结果时，高额的绝对报酬是非常必要的。",[87,258,260],{"id":259},"了解ceo-们如何安排他们的时间","了解CEO 们如何安排他们的时间",[18,262,263,264],{},"时间管理也很重要。我从来没有见过一个完全沉浸在公司细节中的CEO，还能一年出差数百天，去会见投资者，推销自己或公司的股票。问问自己，如果这是你的家族企业，你难道不希望你的CEO 一心一意地专注于经营企业吗？",[28,265,266],{},"我想支持那些专注于公司实质细节的CEO，而不是追逐潮流的CEO。",[87,268,270],{"id":269},"对ceo-们进行闲聊调研","对CEO 们进行闲聊调研",[18,272,273,274,277,278,281],{},"最后，我喜欢与现任和前任高管交谈，他们曾向或者正考虑向CEO 提交个人报告。这提供了一个很好的视角来交叉验证信息的真实性。",[28,275,276],{},"我想深入了解一个人的个性，以获得背景信息。例如，一个强调高效率、高强度的高管，可能会在某些时候成为企业文化的毒药，他会让员工感到恐惧，公司会变得脆弱，团队变得不够坦诚，企业也无法应对变化","。在一个管理团队中，**知识上的诚实intellectual-honesty 也是至关重要的。**正如美国理论物理学家理查德费曼(Richard Feynman)所说：\"",[28,279,280],{},"你不能愚弄自己，而你是最容易被愚弄的人","\"。",[37,283,285],{"id":284},"保持简单原则之三-寻找合理的价格","保持简单原则之三 寻找\"合理\"的价格",[18,287,288],{},"关于定价，传奇投资者兼作家菲利普费雪说：\"衡量一只股票是'便宜'还是'贵'的唯一真正标准，不是它目前的价格相对于以前某个价格的关系，无论我们对以前的价格有多习惯，而是该公司的基本面，是否比目前金融界对该股票的评估明显更好或更差。\"投资者必须深入了解股票价格背后的公司。",[87,290,291],{"id":291},"研究过程",[18,293,294,295],{},"闲聊调查法(Scuttlebutt research)是菲利普费雪使用的一个术语，它建议投资者扮演一个调查记者的角色，试图尽可能地接近真相。我见过很多投资者，他们在开始研究一个潜在的持股公司时，通常先是听到一个故事，打电话给一些朋友来核实这个故事，然后再去听一些电话会议，读一些研究报告，并开始形成一个投资的观点。",[28,296,297],{},"这个过程的危险之处在于，它往往导致投资结论是基于他人的观点和分析，而不是你自己的观点。",[18,299,300],{},"相反，**我从该公司的年度股东信、年度报告、10K 和10Q 报告，以及其他美国SEC 的文件，以及过去10 年的贸易杂志文章和新闻稿开始。**该公司是否承诺很少但交付很多，或者反之亦然？然后去看财报电话会议，再次努力核实该公司是否言出必行说到做到。**一旦有了这种基于事实而不是故事所构建的公司画像，那么我会就像一个调查记者一样，开始描绘出一个真实的画像。**但许多问题仍然有待回答，这时候应该去做渠道检查了。",[87,302,303],{"id":303},"评估护城河",[18,305,306,307],{},"投资者应该如何真实地去评估商业护城河的深度和广度？公司的竞争优势究竟是什么，它有多么无懈可击？当然，",[28,308,309],{},"高投入资本回报率(ROIC)的长期记录，似乎是确定这一点的一个快速和简单的方法。",[18,311,312],{},"但是，资本主义的墓地里到处都是这样的公司，事实上，它们在过去很长一段时期内，确实赚取了很高的ROIC，但最终却被竞争打败，要么是直接来自更精明的竞争对手，要么是来自不断变化的经济形势。投资者必须深入杂乱的信息中，进行闲聊调研，以确定企业周围的护城河是强大坚固的还是脆弱松散的。",[87,314,316],{"id":315},"渠道检查channel-checks","渠道检查Channel Checks",[18,318,319,320,323,324],{},"渠道检查相当于传说中的侦探调查。他们需要与客户、供应商和前雇员交谈。我总是问自己，如果我正在考虑将我100%的净资产地投入这家企业，我想知道些什么？",[28,321,322],{},"管理层一直是在为未来打基础，还是在透支未来？公司拥有什么样的定价权？公司是否已经采取措施将其最大化，或者说系统中是否存在值得改进的地方，暗示有进一步的提升空间","？商业护城河并不是固定的，它有着不同的表现形式：",[28,325,326],{},"强大的品牌、低成本运营、客户便利性以及网络效应都构成了真实但非常不同的护城河。",[18,328,329],{},"这种深入且细致的由内而外的研究有多种目的。",[18,331,332],{},"首先，它帮助我们深入了解业务的实际运作方式，以及护城河的质量。",[18,334,335],{},"第二，它帮助我们通过底层了解业务的发展趋势，这可以帮助我们了解护城河是在缩小还是在扩大。",[18,337,338],{},"第三，它帮助我们基于事实而不是观点去进行冷静的分析。这有助于消除个人情绪因素，而情绪是理性决策的敌人。经过如此广泛的分析，如果我们的证券在购买后价格下跌，我们可能会更愿意买入更多。",[18,340,341,342],{},"第四，它帮助我们理解企业的脆弱性或\"反脆弱性\"的本质(anti-fragile)。这是作家塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)创造的术语，意思是在别人的脆弱性使他们崩溃的情况下，让自己变得更加强大。",[28,343,344],{},"最好的企业是反脆弱的；也就是说，在逆境和动荡的时期，它们会继续茁壮成长，甚至加深它们的护城河，比如当竞争对手陷入困境，它们最好的客户和员工可能会被夺走。",[18,346,347],{},"第五，**它帮助我们在许多企业和行业之上建立了一个基础理解框架，这使我们能够随着时间的推移对我们的知识进行交叉验证和形成复利效应。**这项工作可以帮助我们创建一个期望和进展的里程碑，随着时间的推移，我们可以对这个框架进行复盘比较，并在必要时进行调整。",[18,349,350],{},"第六，在培养客观判断力方面，采用多元思维的方法具有巨大的力量。利用外部知识和视角来进行这项研究，并通过这些检查与行业知识相结合，可以成为一种判断力的倍增器。",[18,352,353],{},"通过案头研究和渠道检查进行这种详细的研究，可以使你在理解业务的过程中获得舒适感。做彻底的研究工作可以使投资者能够自信地回答一些真正重要的问题：**该企业是否有一个可持续的竞争优势，或不断扩大的护城河？未来五年中最薄弱的环节是什么？是否存在隐藏的路径依赖关系？企业是否具有定价权，它是如何行使定价权的？该业务有多(反)脆弱，它在下一次行业衰退中是否会加速成长？潜在竞争者要复制这项业务需要做些什么？**五年后，该业务是否会处于更有利的竞争位置，护城河是否会更宽阔？",[18,355,356,357,360],{},"如果你能自信地回答这些问题，你就能清楚地了解真正重要的事情，并在准确评估内在价值的道路上走得更远。请记住，",[28,358,359],{},"投资中简单通常意味着更好(Simple is usually better)；投资中并没有额外的难度分","。你能够找到具有强大的、可持续的护城河和特许经营权的简单易懂的企业(Straightforward businesses)，同时避免\"当一个强大的管理团队遇到一个糟糕的业务时，通常糟糕的业务会占据上风\"这一公理(When a strong management team meets a bad business, the business wins.)。所有这些都不能保证有好的投资结果，但肯定会有所帮助。",[87,362,363],{"id":363},"确定内在价值",[18,365,366,367],{},"正如沃伦巴菲特在1989 年致伯克希尔股东信中所写：\"",[28,368,369],{},"以合理的价格购买一家美妙的公司，比以美妙的价格购买一家普通的公司要好得多\"。(It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.)",[18,371,372],{},"一家企业的价值是其永续现金流贴现之和。这个概念听起来很简单，但在这个计算中涉及几个关键的变量：要使用的贴现率和对这些永续现金流的评估。估算未来的现金流需要确定一个公司的资本支出的密集程度、利润增长率和管理层的分红目标。有几个例子可以说明这些估算的力量。",[18,374,375,376,379,380,383,384,379,387,389,390,379,393,396,397,379,400,402],{},"假设10%的贴现率不变，一家收益每年增长15%且不需要任何额外资本投入的企业，其价值约为当前收益的 26 倍(PE=26，前10 年每年增长15%",[100,377,378],{},"折现11.3","，之后永续增长0%",[100,381,382],{},"折现14.9",")，而同样一家企业收益每年增长15%，但需要将大部分或全部收益再投资以实现这一增长，其价值仅为当前收益的16 倍(PE=16，前10 年每年增长15%并再投资",[100,385,386],{},"折现1.5",[100,388,382],{},")。一家收益每年增长5%且不需要任何额外资本投入的企业，其价值约为当前收益的14 倍(PE=14，前10 年每年增长5%",[100,391,392],{},"折现7.2",[100,394,395],{},"折现6.6",")，而同样的企业但需要将其所有收益再投资，其价值约为当前收益的7 倍(PE=7，前10 年每年增长5%并再投资",[100,398,399],{},"折现0.7",[100,401,395],{},")。回报以15%复合增长30 年，其价值将是初始投入的87 倍以上，而以5%复合增长30 年，其价值略低于4.5 倍。在这个例子中，复合收益率增长三倍(从5%到15%)，导致回报几乎增加了20倍（87倍VS4.5倍）",[18,404,405],{},[406,407],"img",{"alt":408,"src":409},"","\u002Fcontent\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fimages\u002Fimage_1385820675530127474.png",[18,411,412],{},"**这个例子说明了寻找能够长期增长的轻资产业务的力量。相反，最糟糕的业务实际上是为了维持增长消耗越来越多的资本，而回报率未能超过其资本成本。**当然，也有一些业务需要资本投入才能增长，如铁路、金融机构，或像沃尔玛或亚马逊这样的零售商，新投入资本的回报是完全可以接受的；这种增长性资本投入将随着时间的推移产生经济价值。但价格是决定回报的首要因素。这是格雷厄姆和多德的伟大洞见。伟大的企业在错误的价格下可能是可怕的投资，而普通的企业在合适的价格下可能是优秀的投资。快速增长的企业可能具有吸引力，但前提是价格合适。近年来，在长期的低利率时期，许多投资者根据简单而有缺陷的收益率加增长率的公式，不惜一切代价涌向增长(格雷厄姆增长公式V=E(8.5+2G))。由于价格是关键因素，因此还必须通过比较今天的价格和公司的内在价值来调整增长率。增长的价值被大幅削弱，因为你已经为它预先付出了巨大的代价。",[18,414,415],{},"从历史来看，股市市盈率约为15 倍，相当于6.7%的收益率。如果你能以低于这个市盈率倍数的价格，找到一个管理水平和业绩均高于平均水平的企业，那么它很可能是一个好的开始。格雷厄姆和多德称这为安全边际。",[18,417,418,419,422],{},"还有另外两个注意事项。一是要确保是基于所有者收益(Owner earnings)，而不是EBITDA，甚至是更有害的调整后EBITDA。",[28,420,421],{},"所有者收益的定义是，未经调整的报告收益，加上折旧、摊销和某些其它非现金支出，减去为完全保持其竞争地位所需的平均年度维持性资本支出","。另一个是需要审视整个公司的资本结构。高杠杆企业可能会经历估值的巨大变化，而其所有者收益仅有最轻微的变化。如果投资者看一只股票时没有思考其完整的资本结构，可能会忽略一个关键因素，因为股权价值是或有的，而债务是永恒的。",[37,424,426],{"id":425},"最终结论-重要的是什么","最终结论 重要的是什么",[18,428,429,430,433],{},"人类不断地处理有关世界的复杂信息，并将其简化并纳入模型以便于理解，以使我们能够做出决定。我早上出门看到我的车，一个由金属零件和功能组成的错综复杂的网络，但我只是把这些信息处理为一个叫做\"车\"的东西，然后开车去上班。很简单，对吗？",[28,431,432],{},"但不管出于什么原因，投资者往往会倾向于将一个概念复杂化","。就我自己而言，我相信遵循我所描述的研究过程，可以让我更接近眼前的事实，而内在价值和安全边际的事实在投资中至关重要。例如，我问自己，这家公司到底在做什么业务？决定其成功的关键驱动因素是什么？",[18,435,436],{},"我现在处于一个独特的位置，担任两个角色：既是GEICO 的CEO，又在伯克希尔肩负管理大量投资组合的责任。这些角色中的每一个都影响着另一个。我的CEO 角色使我更清楚地意识到CEO 所面临的关键挑战，即在短期的紧迫性和长期的必要性之间不断进行平衡。作为一名CEO，我强烈意识到财报报表中固有的过度简化的危险性。但作为一名投资者，我始终关注风险和回报。CEO 可能会迷失在日常工作的细枝末节中；而戴上投资的帽子，就会始终强调投资回报。",[18,438,439,440,443,444],{},"沃伦巴菲特有句名言：",[28,441,442],{},"\"我是一名更好的投资者，因为我是一名企业家，我也是一名更好的企业家，因为我是一名投资者","。\"投资者试图了解公司运营幕后的真实状况，但他们往往意识到自己实际上知之甚少。从这个有利的角度看，人们可以理解，即使是广泛的研究，也只能揭示出人们对企业可能了解的一小部分。",[28,445,446],{},"投资者必须找到一种方法来应对不确定性和随机性。",[18,448,449,450,453],{},"这些运营决策每天都在做，甚至有些决策是几十年前做出的，但这些决策仍然影响着今天每个业务和行业的结果。存在错综复杂的路径依赖关系，即使对于非常熟练的高层管理者来说也往往过于复杂，无法完全理解所涉及的权衡。",[28,451,452],{},"完美的信息并不存在，这里只存在一个置信区间","。当然，这也是安全边际在投资中如此重要的核心所在。如果你从一个人们只知道这么多信息的前提下开始投资，你当然需要一个犯错的回旋余地。你知道的越少，需要的安全边际就越大。",{"title":408,"searchDepth":455,"depth":455,"links":456},2,[457],{"id":16,"depth":455,"text":5,"children":458},[459,461,462,463,464],{"id":39,"depth":460,"text":39},3,{"id":72,"depth":460,"text":73},{"id":207,"depth":460,"text":208},{"id":284,"depth":460,"text":285},{"id":425,"depth":460,"text":426},"访谈与文章",null,"伯克希尔投资经理托德·康布斯为《证券分析》第七版撰文，强调对潜在投资标的进行全面分析的必要性，以及下跌保护的重要性。","md",{},true,150,"\u002Fbuffett\u002Finterview\u002Fkang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi",{"title":5,"description":467},"康布斯：在普通股中寻找价值｜巴菲特","kang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi","buffett\u002Finterview\u002Fkang-bu-si-zai-pu-tong-gu-zhong-xun-zhao-jie-zhi","mtBFe4fXAykulXpWdxTy3uWxou8qiFiod25QzWJ5SqM","buffett",[480,485,488,492,495,498,501,504,507,510,514,517,520,524,527,530,534,537,540,544,547,550,554,557,560,564,567,570,574,577,580,584,587,590,594,597,600,604,607,610,614,617,620,624,627,630,634,637,640,644,647,650,654,657,660,664,667,670,674,677,680,684,687,690,694,697,700,704,707,710,714,717,720,724,727,730,734,737,740,744,747,750,754,757,760,764,767,770,774,777,780,784,787,790,794,797,800,804,807,810,814,817,821,824,828,831,835,838,842,845,849,852,856,859,863,866,870,873,877,880,884,887,891,894,898,901,905,908,912,915,919,922,926,929,933,936,940,943,947,950,954,957,961,964,968,971,975,978,982,985,989,992,996,999,1003,1006,1010,1013,1017,1020,1024,1027,1031,1034,1038,1041,1045,1048,1052,1055,1059,1062,1066,1069,1073,1076,1080,1083,1087,1090,1094,1097,1101,1104,1108,1111,1115,1118,1122,1125,1129,1132,1136,1139,1143,1146,1150,1153,1157,1160,1164,1167,1171,1174,1178,1181,1185,1188,1192,1195,1199,1202,1206,1209,1213,1216,1220,1223,1227,1230,1234,1237,1241,1244,1248,1251,1255,1258,1262,1265,1269,1272,1276,1279,1283,1287,1291,1295,1299,1303,1307,1311,1315,1319,1323,1327,1331,1335,1339,1343,1347,1351,1355,1359,1363,1367,1371,1375,1379,1383,1387,1391,1395,1399,1403,1407,1411,1415,1419,1423,1427,1431,1435,1439,1443,1447,1451,1455,1459,1463,1467,1471,1475,1476],{"title":481,"slug":482,"category":483,"order":484},"1956 有限合伙协议","1956-you-xian-he-huo-xie-yi","致股东信",1,{"title":486,"slug":487,"category":465,"order":484},"巴菲特：1951年最看好的股票：GEICO 保险","ba-fei-te-1951nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-geico-bao-xian",{"title":489,"slug":490,"category":491,"order":484},"1994年伯克希尔股东大会","1994nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui","股东大会",{"title":493,"slug":494,"category":483,"order":455},"1957 巴菲特致合伙人信","1957-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":496,"slug":497,"category":465,"order":455},"巴菲特：1953年我最看好的股票：西部保险","ba-fei-te-1953nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-xi-bu-bao-xian",{"title":499,"slug":500,"category":491,"order":455},"1995年伯克希尔股东大会","1995nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":502,"slug":503,"category":483,"order":460},"1958 巴菲特致合伙人信","1958-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",{"title":505,"slug":506,"category":465,"order":460},"巴菲特：1957年我最看好的股票：人寿保险","ba-fei-te-1957nian-wo-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-ren-shou-bao-xian",{"title":508,"slug":509,"category":491,"order":460},"1996年伯克希尔股东大会","1996nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":511,"slug":512,"category":483,"order":513},"1959 巴菲特致合伙人信","1959-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",4,{"title":515,"slug":516,"category":465,"order":513},"巴菲特：1957年最看好的股票：油气资产管理公司","ba-fei-te-1957nian-zui-kan-hao-de-gu-piao-you-qi-zi-chan-guan-li-gong-si",{"title":518,"slug":519,"category":491,"order":513},"1997年伯克希尔股东大会","1997nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":521,"slug":522,"category":483,"order":523},"1960 巴菲特致合伙人信","1960-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",5,{"title":525,"slug":526,"category":465,"order":523},"巴菲特：1972年巴菲特谈喜诗糖果","ba-fei-te-1972nian-ba-fei-te-tan-xi-shi-tang-guo",{"title":528,"slug":529,"category":491,"order":523},"1998年伯克希尔股东大会","1998nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":531,"slug":532,"category":483,"order":533},"1961 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",6,{"title":535,"slug":536,"category":465,"order":533},"巴菲特：1974年击球啊,你这个笨蛋","ba-fei-te-1974nian-ji-qiu-a-ni-zhe-ge-ben-dan",{"title":538,"slug":539,"category":491,"order":533},"1999年伯克希尔股东大会","1999nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":541,"slug":542,"category":483,"order":543},"1961年中 巴菲特致合伙人信","1961nian-zhong-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",7,{"title":545,"slug":546,"category":465,"order":543},"巴菲特：1976年巴菲特谈GEICO","ba-fei-te-1976nian-ba-fei-te-tan-geico",{"title":548,"slug":549,"category":491,"order":543},"2000年伯克希尔股东大会","2000nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":551,"slug":552,"category":483,"order":553},"1962 巴菲特致合伙人信","1962-ba-fei-te-zhi-he-huo-ren-xin",8,{"title":555,"slug":556,"category":465,"order":553},"巴菲特：1976年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-1976nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":558,"slug":559,"category":491,"order":553},"2001年伯克希尔股东大会","2001nian-bo-ke-xi-er-gu-dong-da-hui",{"title":561,"slug":562,"category":483,"order":563},"1962年11月 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巴菲特致股东信","1977-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",48,{"title":913,"slug":914,"category":465,"order":911},"巴菲特：2003年沃伦在担心什么","ba-fei-te-2003nian-wo-lun-zai-dan-xin-shi-me",{"title":916,"slug":917,"category":483,"order":918},"1978 巴菲特致股东信","1978-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",49,{"title":920,"slug":921,"category":465,"order":918},"巴菲特：2003年股息巫术","ba-fei-te-2003nian-gu-xi-wu-shu",{"title":923,"slug":924,"category":483,"order":925},"1979 巴菲特致股东信","1979-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",50,{"title":927,"slug":928,"category":465,"order":925},"2004年：《巴菲特：2004年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2004nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":930,"slug":931,"category":483,"order":932},"1980 巴菲特致股东信","1980-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",51,{"title":934,"slug":935,"category":465,"order":932},"巴菲特：2004年专访苏珊·巴菲特","ba-fei-te-2004nian-zhuan-fang-su-shan-ba-fei-te",{"title":937,"slug":938,"category":483,"order":939},"1981 巴菲特致股东信","1981-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",52,{"title":941,"slug":942,"category":465,"order":939},"巴菲特：2004年对话奥奎尔俱乐部","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-ao-kui-er-ju-le-bu",{"title":944,"slug":945,"category":483,"order":946},"1982 巴菲特致股东信","1982-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",53,{"title":948,"slug":949,"category":465,"order":946},"巴菲特：2004年对话沃顿商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2004nian-dui-hua-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":951,"slug":952,"category":483,"order":953},"1983 巴菲特致股东信","1983-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",54,{"title":955,"slug":956,"category":465,"order":953},"巴菲特：2004年模糊数学与股票期权","ba-fei-te-2004nian-mo-hu-shu-xue-yu-gu-piao-qi-quan",{"title":958,"slug":959,"category":483,"order":960},"1984 巴菲特致股东信","1984-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",55,{"title":962,"slug":963,"category":465,"order":960},"与沃伦·巴菲特的问答纪要 2005年","ba-fei-te-2005nian-jia-zhou-da-xue-luo-shan-ji-fen-xiao-an-de-sen-guan-li-xue-yuan-nan-jia-zhou-da-xue-ma-xie-er-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-ji-yao",{"title":965,"slug":966,"category":483,"order":967},"1985 巴菲特致股东信","1985-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",56,{"title":969,"slug":970,"category":465,"order":967},"2005年：《巴菲特：2005年与塔克商学院学生对谈》","ba-fei-te-2005nian-yu-ta-ke-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-dui-tan",{"title":972,"slug":973,"category":483,"order":974},"1986 巴菲特致股东信","1986-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",57,{"title":976,"slug":977,"category":465,"order":974},"巴菲特：2005年回忆进入证券行业","ba-fei-te-2005nian-hui-yi-jin-ru-zheng-quan-xing-ye",{"title":979,"slug":980,"category":483,"order":981},"1987 巴菲特致股东信","1987-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",58,{"title":983,"slug":984,"category":465,"order":981},"巴菲特：2005年对话内布拉斯加大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-nei-bu-la-si-jia-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":986,"slug":987,"category":483,"order":988},"1988 巴菲特致股东信","1988-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",59,{"title":990,"slug":991,"category":465,"order":988},"巴菲特：2005年对话堪萨斯大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-kan-sa-si-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":993,"slug":994,"category":483,"order":995},"1989 巴菲特致股东信","1989-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",60,{"title":997,"slug":998,"category":465,"order":995},"巴菲特：2005年对话范德比尔特大学学生","ba-fei-te-2005nian-dui-hua-fan-de-bi-er-te-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1000,"slug":1001,"category":483,"order":1002},"1990 巴菲特致股东信","1990-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",61,{"title":1004,"slug":1005,"category":465,"order":1002},"巴菲特：2006年与沃顿商学院学生问答","ba-fei-te-2006nian-yu-wo-dun-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng-wen-da",{"title":1007,"slug":1008,"category":483,"order":1009},"1991 巴菲特致股东信","1991-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",62,{"title":1011,"slug":1012,"category":465,"order":1009},"巴菲特：2006年巴菲特慈善捐赠专访","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ba-fei-te-ci-shan-juan-zeng-zhuan-fang",{"title":1014,"slug":1015,"category":483,"order":1016},"1992 巴菲特致股东信","1992-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",63,{"title":1018,"slug":1019,"category":465,"order":1016},"巴菲特：2006年慈善捐赠承诺","ba-fei-te-2006nian-ci-shan-juan-zeng-cheng-nuo",{"title":1021,"slug":1022,"category":483,"order":1023},"1993 巴菲特致股东信","1993-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",64,{"title":1025,"slug":1026,"category":465,"order":1023},"巴菲特：2006年我为什么慷慨解囊","ba-fei-te-2006nian-wo-wei-shi-me-kang-kai-jie-nang",{"title":1028,"slug":1029,"category":483,"order":1030},"1994 巴菲特致股东信","1994-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",65,{"title":1032,"slug":1033,"category":465,"order":1030},"巴菲特：2006年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2006nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1035,"slug":1036,"category":483,"order":1037},"1995 巴菲特致股东信","1995-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",66,{"title":1039,"slug":1040,"category":465,"order":1037},"巴菲特：2007年11月和比尔·盖茨、大学生对话实录（节目《富豪面对面》）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-11yue-he-bi-er-gai-ci-da-xue-sheng-dui-hua-shi-lu-jie-mu-fu-hao-mian-dui-mian",{"title":1042,"slug":1043,"category":483,"order":1044},"1996 巴菲特致股东信","1996-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",67,{"title":1046,"slug":1047,"category":465,"order":1044},"巴菲特：2007年对话佐治亚大学学生","ba-fei-te-2007nian-dui-hua-zuo-zhi-ya-da-xue-xue-sheng",{"title":1049,"slug":1050,"category":483,"order":1051},"1997 巴菲特致股东信","1997-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",68,{"title":1053,"slug":1054,"category":465,"order":1051},"巴菲特：2007年巴菲特接见Dardashti","ba-fei-te-2007nian-ba-fei-te-jie-jian-dardashti",{"title":1056,"slug":1057,"category":483,"order":1058},"1998 巴菲特致股东信","1998-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",69,{"title":1060,"slug":1061,"category":465,"order":1058},"巴菲特：2007年接受央视专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-yang-shi-zhuan-fang",{"title":1063,"slug":1064,"category":483,"order":1065},"1999 巴菲特致股东信","1999-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",70,{"title":1067,"slug":1068,"category":465,"order":1065},"巴菲特：2007年接受欧洲MBA学生专访（珍贵精彩实录）","ba-fei-te-2007nian-jie-shou-ou-zhou-mbaxue-sheng-zhuan-fang-zhen-gui-jing-cai-shi-lu",{"title":1070,"slug":1071,"category":483,"order":1072},"2000 巴菲特致股东信","2000-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",71,{"title":1074,"slug":1075,"category":465,"order":1072},"巴菲特：2007年查理罗斯专访","ba-fei-te-2007nian-cha-li-luo-si-zhuan-fang",{"title":1077,"slug":1078,"category":483,"order":1079},"2001 巴菲特致股东信","2001-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",72,{"title":1081,"slug":1082,"category":465,"order":1079},"巴菲特：2008年21 世纪经济领导者采访","ba-fei-te-2008nian-21-shi-ji-jing-ji-ling-dao-zhe-cai-fang",{"title":1084,"slug":1085,"category":483,"order":1086},"2002 巴菲特致股东信","2002-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",73,{"title":1088,"slug":1089,"category":465,"order":1086},"巴菲特：2008年买入美国正当时","ba-fei-te-2008nian-mai-ru-mei-guo-zheng-dang-shi",{"title":1091,"slug":1092,"category":483,"order":1093},"2003 巴菲特致股东信","2003-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",74,{"title":1095,"slug":1096,"category":465,"order":1093},"巴菲特：2008年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1098,"slug":1099,"category":483,"order":1100},"2004 巴菲特致股东信","2004-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",75,{"title":1102,"slug":1103,"category":465,"order":1100},"巴菲特：2008年对话商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1105,"slug":1106,"category":483,"order":1107},"2005 巴菲特致股东信","2005-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",76,{"title":1109,"slug":1110,"category":465,"order":1107},"巴菲特：2008年对话瑞士洛桑国际管理学院","ba-fei-te-2008nian-dui-hua-rui-shi-luo-sang-guo-ji-guan-li-xue-yuan",{"title":1112,"slug":1113,"category":483,"order":1114},"2006 巴菲特致股东信","2006-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",77,{"title":1116,"slug":1117,"category":465,"order":1114},"巴菲特：2008年怀念恩师格雷厄姆","ba-fei-te-2008nian-huai-nian-en-shi-ge-lei-e-mu",{"title":1119,"slug":1120,"category":483,"order":1121},"2007 巴菲特致股东信","2007-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",78,{"title":1123,"slug":1124,"category":465,"order":1121},"巴菲特：2008年给保尔森的信","ba-fei-te-2008nian-gei-bao-er-sen-de-xin",{"title":1126,"slug":1127,"category":483,"order":1128},"2008 巴菲特致股东信","2008-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",79,{"title":1130,"slug":1131,"category":465,"order":1128},"巴菲特：2008年解析经济危机","ba-fei-te-2008nian-jie-xi-jing-ji-wei-ji",{"title":1133,"slug":1134,"category":483,"order":1135},"2009 巴菲特致股东信","2009-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",80,{"title":1137,"slug":1138,"category":465,"order":1135},"巴菲特：2008年财富杂志：沃伦之思","ba-fei-te-2008nian-cai-fu-za-zhi-wo-lun-zhi-si",{"title":1140,"slug":1141,"category":483,"order":1142},"2010 巴菲特致股东信","2010-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",81,{"title":1144,"slug":1145,"category":465,"order":1142},"巴菲特：2009年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2009nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1147,"slug":1148,"category":483,"order":1149},"2011 巴菲特致股东信","2011-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",82,{"title":1151,"slug":1152,"category":465,"order":1149},"巴菲特：2009年对话六所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-liu-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1154,"slug":1155,"category":483,"order":1156},"2012 巴菲特致股东信","2012-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",83,{"title":1158,"slug":1159,"category":465,"order":1156},"巴菲特：2009年对话哥大商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2009nian-dui-hua-ge-da-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1161,"slug":1162,"category":483,"order":1163},"2013 巴菲特致股东信","2013-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",84,{"title":1165,"slug":1166,"category":465,"order":1163},"巴菲特：2009年恐慌是会传染的，我们必须做点什么","ba-fei-te-2009nian-kong-huang-shi-hui-chuan-ran-de-wo-men-bi-xu-zuo-dian-shi-me",{"title":1168,"slug":1169,"category":483,"order":1170},"2014 伯克希尔的过去现在与未来","2014-bo-ke-xi-er-de-guo-qu-xian-zai-yu-wei-lai",85,{"title":1172,"slug":1173,"category":465,"order":1170},"巴菲特：2009年收购BNSF 铁路","ba-fei-te-2009nian-shou-gou-bnsf-tie-lu",{"title":1175,"slug":1176,"category":483,"order":1177},"2014 副董事长的思考","2014-fu-dong-shi-chang-de-si-kao",86,{"title":1179,"slug":1180,"category":465,"order":1177},"巴菲特：2009年美元效应","ba-fei-te-2009nian-mei-yuan-xiao-ying",{"title":1182,"slug":1183,"category":483,"order":1184},"2014 巴菲特致股东信","2014-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",87,{"title":1186,"slug":1187,"category":465,"order":1184},"教学方法期刊","ba-fei-te-2009nian-a-ke-lun-da-xue-shang-xue-yuan-wen-da-shi-lu",{"title":1189,"slug":1190,"category":483,"order":1191},"2015 巴菲特致股东信","2015-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",88,{"title":1193,"slug":1194,"category":465,"order":1191},"巴菲特：2010年\"捐赠誓言\"计划","ba-fei-te-2010nian-juan-zeng-shi-yan-ji-hua",{"title":1196,"slug":1197,"category":483,"order":1198},"2016 巴菲特致股东信","2016-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",89,{"title":1200,"slug":1201,"category":465,"order":1198},"巴菲特：2010年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1203,"slug":1204,"category":483,"order":1205},"2017 巴菲特致股东信","2017-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",90,{"title":1207,"slug":1208,"category":465,"order":1205},"巴菲特：2010年与罗克国度创始人、福布斯主编对谈","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yu-luo-ke-guo-du-chuang-shi-ren-fu-bu-si-zhu-bian-dui-tan",{"title":1210,"slug":1211,"category":483,"order":1212},"2018 巴菲特致股东信","2018-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",91,{"title":1214,"slug":1215,"category":465,"order":1212},"巴菲特：2010年央视财经采访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-yang-shi-cai-jing-cai-fang",{"title":1217,"slug":1218,"category":483,"order":1219},"2019 巴菲特致股东信","2019-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",92,{"title":1221,"slug":1222,"category":465,"order":1219},"巴菲特：2010年对话IVEY 商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2010nian-dui-hua-ivey-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1224,"slug":1225,"category":483,"order":1226},"2020 巴菲特致股东信","2020-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",93,{"title":1228,"slug":1229,"category":465,"order":1226},"巴菲特：2010年慈善中国行","ba-fei-te-2010nian-ci-shan-zhong-guo-xing",{"title":1231,"slug":1232,"category":483,"order":1233},"2021 巴菲特致股东信","2021-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",94,{"title":1235,"slug":1236,"category":465,"order":1233},"巴菲特：2010年给全体经理人备忘录","ba-fei-te-2010nian-gei-quan-ti-jing-li-ren-bei-wang-lu",{"title":1238,"slug":1239,"category":483,"order":1240},"2022 巴菲特致股东信","2022-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",95,{"title":1242,"slug":1243,"category":465,"order":1240},"巴菲特：2010年金融危机调查委员会专访","ba-fei-te-2010nian-jin-rong-wei-ji-diao-cha-wei-yuan-hui-zhuan-fang",{"title":1245,"slug":1246,"category":483,"order":1247},"2023 巴菲特致股东信","2023-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",96,{"title":1249,"slug":1250,"category":465,"order":1247},"巴菲特：2011年500 亿美元的决定","ba-fei-te-2011nian-500-yi-mei-yuan-de-jue-ding",{"title":1252,"slug":1253,"category":483,"order":1254},"2024 巴菲特致股东信","2024-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",97,{"title":1256,"slug":1257,"category":465,"order":1254},"巴菲特：2011年CNBC 专访","ba-fei-te-2011nian-cnbc-zhuan-fang",{"title":1259,"slug":1260,"category":483,"order":1261},"2025 巴菲特致股东信","2025-ba-fei-te-zhi-gu-dong-xin",98,{"title":1263,"slug":1264,"category":465,"order":1261},"巴菲特：2011年对话八所商学院学生","ba-fei-te-2011nian-dui-hua-ba-suo-shang-xue-yuan-xue-sheng",{"title":1266,"slug":1267,"category":483,"order":1268},"2025 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