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404。",[14,18,19],{},"你不是不知道要检查这些。你只是当时忘了。",[10,21,22],{"id":22},"这个模型到底在说什么",[14,24,25],{},"检查清单就是把容易忘的关键问题提前写下来，让你在压力下也能按顺序检查。",[14,27,28],{},"它不是为了显得专业。它是承认人的记忆不可靠，尤其在紧张、赶时间、很自信的时候。",[10,30,31],{"id":31},"换个比喻",[14,33,34],{},"检查清单像出门前摸口袋：钥匙、手机、钱包。",[14,36,37],{},"你当然知道这些东西重要。但知道不等于每次都会带。清单的作用，就是防止你在普通问题上摔倒。",[10,39,40],{"id":40},"它为什么重要",[14,42,43],{},"越重要的事，越不能只靠临场聪明。聪明会疲劳，注意力会转移，情绪会干扰判断。",[14,45,46],{},"检查清单把一些关键动作从“我记得”变成“我必须确认”。这不是降低水平，而是把水平稳定下来。",[10,48,49],{"id":49},"芒格会怎么用它",[14,51,52],{},"芒格式检查清单不会只问一个维度。它会同时看能力圈、激励、机会成本、安全边际、心理误判和二阶效应。",[14,54,55],{},"它像一组过滤器。一个想法通过了故事检验，还要通过风险检验；通过了收益检验，还要通过激励检验。",[10,57,59],{"id":58},"一个反例什么时候它会被误用","一个反例：什么时候它会被误用",[14,61,62],{},"检查清单不是越长越好。",[14,64,65],{},"如果一张清单长到没人愿意用，它就变成装饰品。真正好的清单很短，抓住那些最容易漏、后果最严重、重复出现的问题。",[10,67,68],{"id":68},"你是不是真的懂了",[70,71,72,76,79,82],"ul",{},[73,74,75],"li",{},"我能不能说出自己最常重复的三个错误？",[73,77,78],{},"哪些问题每次重要决策前都应该被问一遍？",[73,80,81],{},"这张清单短到我愿意真的使用吗？",[73,83,84],{},"我能不能说明检查清单和心理误判有什么关系？",[10,86,87],{"id":87},"今天可以怎么用",[14,89,90],{},"为一个重复任务写一张 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分钟",[235,236],"margin-of-safety","opportunity-cost",{"title":133,"description":229},"用普通读者能理解的方式解释能力圈：什么是真懂，为什么边界比聪明更重要，以及如何避免跨出能力圈。","能力圈｜思维模型","ability-circle",[127,242],"Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder 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分钟",[125,346],"second-order-effects",{"title":247,"description":341},"解释芒格常用的逆向思维：从失败路径反推行动边界，帮助普通读者减少重大错误。","逆向思维｜思维模型",[127],"models\u002Finversion","J31zIF4jtdD2GXhpV9h88oRQArDU0BYVu3kVRaXaGUg",{"id":354,"title":355,"body":356,"category":448,"description":449,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":450,"navigation":115,"order":451,"path":452,"readingTime":344,"related":453,"seo":455,"seoDescription":456,"seoTitle":457,"slug":236,"sources":458,"stem":459,"__hash__":460},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fopportunity-cost.md","机会成本",{"type":7,"value":357,"toc":438},[358,360,363,366,368,371,374,376,379,382,384,387,390,392,395,398,400,403,406,408,422,424,427],[10,359,12],{"id":12},[14,361,362],{},"你周末有一天空闲。朋友约你聚会，另一个朋友让你帮忙做项目，你自己也想读一本书。聚会不用花多少钱，所以你觉得它“成本很低”。",[14,364,365],{},"但真正的问题不是它花了多少钱。真正的问题是：你选它，就不能选另外两个。",[10,367,22],{"id":22},[14,369,370],{},"机会成本就是：你做一个选择时，放弃的那个最好选择。",[14,372,373],{},"成本不只是钱。时间、注意力、信用、精力、位置，都是成本。只看账单上的价格，就像只看冰山露出水面的那一点。",[10,375,31],{"id":31},[14,377,378],{},"机会成本像一张只有一个座位的椅子。一个人坐下了，其他人就坐不了。",[14,380,381],{},"你的时间和注意力也是这样。它们看起来不像钱包里的现金，但比现金更难补回来。",[10,383,40],{"id":40},[14,385,386],{},"人们常说“这个也不错”。可是“不错”不是判断标准。真正的问题是：和你能选的其他东西相比，它还好吗？",[14,388,389],{},"没有比较对象的划算，常常只是感觉。机会成本让你把每个选择都放到替代方案旁边看。",[10,391,49],{"id":49},[14,393,394],{},"芒格看一笔投资，不会只问它能不能赚钱。他会问：如果把同样的钱、时间和注意力放到另一个机会里，会不会更好？",[14,396,397],{},"一个机会看起来有回报，但如果它占用了你本可以投入到更好机会里的资源，它就很贵。",[10,399,59],{"id":58},[14,401,402],{},"机会成本不是让你每分钟都计算最优解。",[14,404,405],{},"如果你把吃饭、散步、陪家人都算成“错过更高收益”，你不是变聪明了，你只是把生活变成了焦虑机器。机会成本最适合用在重要、不可轻易撤回、资源占用大的选择上。",[10,407,68],{"id":68},[70,409,410,413,416,419],{},[73,411,412],{},"我能不能说出这个选择放弃的最佳替代方案？",[73,414,415],{},"我能不能区分钱的成本和注意力的成本？",[73,417,418],{},"我有没有用“都不错”逃避真正比较？",[73,420,421],{},"我能不能说明机会成本和复利有什么关系？",[10,423,87],{"id":87},[14,425,426],{},"选一个你最近答应的事情，写下：",[70,428,429,432,435],{},[73,430,431],{},"它占用我什么资源？",[73,433,434],{},"如果不做它，我最值得做什么？",[73,436,437],{},"两者相比，我还愿意选它吗？",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":439},[440,441,442,443,444,445,446,447],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"经济学","真正的成本不是花了多少钱，而是放弃了什么更好的选择。",{},3,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fopportunity-cost",[240,454],"compound-interest",{"title":355,"description":449},"解释机会成本如何帮助判断选择、投资和时间分配：每个选择都要和可替代方案比较。","机会成本｜思维模型",[127,242],"models\u002Fopportunity-cost","ZGQrV3NrfBd_qZwhBVYsiU9H5i1iQKFVHj_hzE2Y5I4",{"id":462,"title":463,"body":464,"category":559,"description":560,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":561,"navigation":115,"order":562,"path":563,"readingTime":344,"related":564,"seo":566,"seoDescription":567,"seoTitle":568,"slug":454,"sources":569,"stem":570,"__hash__":571},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fcompound-interest.md","复利",{"type":7,"value":465,"toc":549},[466,468,471,474,476,479,482,484,487,490,492,495,498,500,503,506,508,511,514,516,530,532,535,546],[10,467,12],{"id":12},[14,469,470],{},"你每天读十页书。第一天没什么变化，第一周也没什么变化。旁边的人刷短视频，你读书，看起来你只是少了一点娱乐。",[14,472,473],{},"一年后，你多读了十几本书。更重要的是，你理解新东西更快，表达更清楚，判断问题时能调用更多例子。变化不是一天发生的，是一层叠一层长出来的。",[10,475,22],{"id":22},[14,477,478],{},"复利就是：已经产生的成果，继续帮你产生新的成果。",[14,480,481],{},"钱会复利，知识也会复利。信任、声誉、健康、写作能力、判断能力，都会因为前面的积累而让后面的积累更容易。",[10,483,31],{"id":31},[14,485,486],{},"复利像滚雪球。刚开始雪球很小，滚半天也不显眼。但只要雪地够长、雪球不散、方向没错，它会越滚越大。",[14,488,489],{},"关键不是“滚”这个动作多激动人心。关键是别中断，别滚到泥地里，别让雪球碎掉。",[10,491,40],{"id":40},[14,493,494],{},"人类直觉很难感受复利。我们喜欢立刻看见结果，所以低估长期积累，高估短期爆发。",[14,496,497],{},"复利提醒你：真正厉害的系统，常常不是每天都很刺激，而是每天都让下一天变得更容易。",[10,499,49],{"id":49},[14,501,502],{},"芒格重视长期积累，也重视避免毁灭性损失。因为复利最怕的不是慢，而是中途归零。",[14,504,505],{},"一个人、公司或投资组合，只要方向正确、能持续、少犯致命错误，时间就会变成朋友。",[10,507,59],{"id":58},[14,509,510],{},"复利不是“坚持就一定成功”。",[14,512,513],{},"如果方向错了，复利会把错误也放大。坏习惯会复利，债务会复利，坏名声也会复利。你不能只问“我有没有坚持”，还要问“我坚持的东西会不会越积越有用”。",[10,515,68],{"id":68},[70,517,518,521,524,527],{},[73,519,520],{},"我能不能举出一个非金钱复利的例子？",[73,522,523],{},"我能不能说出复利需要哪些条件？",[73,525,526],{},"我有没有把复利误解成简单坚持？",[73,528,529],{},"我能不能说明复利和机会成本有什么关系？",[10,531,87],{"id":87},[14,533,534],{},"选一个你愿意持续一年的小动作，必须小到今天就能开始：",[70,536,537,540,543],{},[73,538,539],{},"每天读十页。",[73,541,542],{},"每天写一百字。",[73,544,545],{},"每天走二十分钟。",[14,547,548],{},"然后问：这个动作会不会让明天的我更容易做好下一步？",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":550},[551,552,553,554,555,556,557,558],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"数学与概率论","长期稳定积累的力量，来自收益继续产生收益，也来自错误持续减少。",{},4,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fcompound-interest",[236,565],"incentives",{"title":463,"description":560},"从财富、知识和习惯三个角度解释复利，理解为什么长期稳定比短期爆发更重要。","复利｜思维模型",[242],"models\u002Fcompound-interest","BVi5SuZ5hEUJwkl-89Sap6xNuZKuo4ra6orfW5vx4UU",{"id":573,"title":574,"body":575,"category":667,"description":668,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"m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Psychology of Human Misjudgment","models\u002Fincentives","Pp94qx9IrHYTE3qcx4oUsJ1FeoV92HHa2WnHokl-1hk",{"id":681,"title":682,"body":683,"category":559,"description":781,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":783,"navigation":115,"order":784,"path":785,"readingTime":233,"related":786,"seo":787,"seoDescription":788,"seoTitle":789,"slug":790,"sources":791,"stem":792,"__hash__":793},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fprobabilistic-thinking.md","概率思维",{"type":7,"value":684,"toc":771},[685,687,690,693,696,698,701,704,706,709,712,714,717,720,722,725,728,730,733,736,738,752,754,757,768],[10,686,12],{"id":12},[14,688,689],{},"你掷一枚硬币，猜正面。结果是反面。你猜错了。",[14,691,692],{},"这能证明你做了一个坏决策吗？不能。因为在掷之前，正面和反面的机会差不多。一次结果不能告诉你整个判断质量。",[14,694,695],{},"很多人生决策也是这样。坏结果不一定说明决策坏，好结果也不一定说明决策好。",[10,697,22],{"id":22},[14,699,700],{},"概率思维就是承认世界不确定，然后估计不同结果出现的可能性。",[14,702,703],{},"它不问“这件事一定会怎样”。它问“各种结果大概有多可能？如果我错了，会付出什么代价？”",[10,705,31],{"id":31},[14,707,708],{},"概率思维像天气预报。天气预报说有 70% 概率下雨，不是说一定下雨。没下雨也不代表预报必然错了。",[14,710,711],{},"你要看的不是一次结果，而是这种判断长期下来准不准。",[10,713,40],{"id":40},[14,715,716],{},"人容易被结果骗。赚了钱就觉得自己聪明，亏了钱就觉得自己愚蠢。其实一次结果里混着运气、环境和判断。",[14,718,719],{},"概率思维把你从“结果崇拜”里拉出来。它让你关心过程：胜率、赔率、失败代价、能不能重复。",[10,721,49],{"id":49},[14,723,724],{},"芒格不会追求绝对确定。他会在自己能理解的范围里寻找高胜率、好赔率、低毁灭风险的机会。",[14,726,727],{},"如果一个机会看起来回报很高，但失败一次就会出局，那它未必值得。概率思维不是只看赢面，也看输的时候会不会死。",[10,729,59],{"id":58},[14,731,732],{},"概率思维不是把所有事情都假装精确成数字。",[14,734,735],{},"很多概率只是估计，不是物理常数。你不能随手写个 83% 就显得科学。真正重要的是承认不确定，比较大概可能性，并检查最坏结果能不能承受。",[10,737,68],{"id":68},[70,739,740,743,746,749],{},[73,741,742],{},"我能不能区分好决策和好结果？",[73,744,745],{},"我估计的概率来自事实、经验，还是愿望？",[73,747,748],{},"如果我错了，后果是否可承受？",[73,750,751],{},"我能不能说明概率思维和安全边际有什么关系？",[10,753,87],{"id":87},[14,755,756],{},"找一个你正在纠结的决定，写下三个结果：",[70,758,759,762,765],{},[73,760,761],{},"最可能发生什么？",[73,763,764],{},"最好会怎样？",[73,766,767],{},"最坏会怎样？",[14,769,770],{},"然后问：如果最坏结果出现，我还能继续玩吗？",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":772},[773,774,775,776,777,778,779,780],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"好判断不是追求确定答案，而是在不确定中提高胜率和赔率。","进阶",{},6,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fprobabilistic-thinking",[235,346],{"title":682,"description":781},"解释概率思维如何帮助普通读者在不确定中做判断，区分胜率、赔率和结果偏差。","概率思维｜思维模型","probabilistic-thinking",[127],"models\u002Fprobabilistic-thinking","8HuH_hQsrz-0Ni6CLZ67y-4SPKdEwcQldMa2gr9u20Q",{"id":795,"title":796,"body":797,"category":895,"description":896,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":897,"navigation":115,"order":898,"path":899,"readingTime":344,"related":900,"seo":902,"seoDescription":903,"seoTitle":904,"slug":346,"sources":905,"stem":906,"__hash__":907},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fsecond-order-effects.md","二阶效应",{"type":7,"value":798,"toc":885},[799,801,804,807,810,813,815,818,821,823,826,829,831,834,837,839,842,845,847,850,853,855,869,871,874,882],[10,800,12],{"id":12},[14,802,803],{},"你管理一个团队，发现进度慢，于是规定所有人每天加班两小时。第一周，产出确实变多了。",[14,805,806],{},"这是一阶结果。",[14,808,809],{},"一个月后，大家开始疲惫，错误变多，优秀的人开始投简历，团队不再信任管理层。",[14,811,812],{},"这就是二阶效应。",[10,814,22],{"id":22},[14,816,817],{},"二阶效应就是：一个行动带来的后续影响，尤其是第一层结果之后被连锁触发的变化。",[14,819,820],{},"第一阶问题是“这样做马上会得到什么”。第二阶问题是“得到之后，系统会怎样反应”。",[10,822,31],{"id":31},[14,824,825],{},"二阶效应像推多米诺骨牌。你推倒第一块很容易，但真正重要的是后面会倒向哪里。",[14,827,828],{},"只看第一块，就是短视。",[10,830,40],{"id":40},[14,832,833],{},"很多糟糕决策在第一阶看起来都很合理。降价能提高销量，催促能提高速度，重奖能提高指标，借钱能扩大规模。",[14,835,836],{},"问题是，人和系统会反应。客户会改变预期，员工会改变行为，竞争者会跟进，风险会积累。",[10,838,49],{"id":49},[14,840,841],{},"芒格会追问后续反应。他不会只看一个动作带来的直接收益，还会看这个动作是否透支信任、破坏激励、增加脆弱性。",[14,843,844],{},"如果一个决策短期好看、长期损坏系统，那它不是真的好。",[10,846,59],{"id":58},[14,848,849],{},"二阶效应不是无限脑补。",[14,851,852],{},"如果你从一个小动作推演出十七层灾难，那不是系统思考，是想象力失控。真正有用的是关注最可能、最重要、最难逆转的后续影响。",[10,854,68],{"id":68},[70,856,857,860,863,866],{},[73,858,859],{},"我能不能区分一阶结果和二阶结果？",[73,861,862],{},"如果大家都按这个规则行动，系统会变成什么样？",[73,864,865],{},"哪个后果会延迟出现？",[73,867,868],{},"我能不能说明二阶效应和激励机制有什么关系？",[10,870,87],{"id":87},[14,872,873],{},"拿一个你准备做的决定，写两行：",[70,875,876,879],{},[73,877,878],{},"立刻会发生什么？",[73,880,881],{},"一个月或一年后，别人会因此怎样改变行为？",[14,883,884],{},"第二行才是你真正要认真看的地方。",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":886},[887,888,889,890,891,892,893,894],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"哲学与逻辑","第一层结果之后，还会发生什么，往往才决定一个决策的真实质量。",{},7,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fsecond-order-effects",[565,901],"redundancy",{"title":796,"description":896},"解释二阶效应如何帮助判断政策、商业和个人选择，避免只看眼前结果。","二阶效应｜思维模型",[127],"models\u002Fsecond-order-effects","CGfRsdu9NOMgMc6io9SI6aG_G58DwQYnRla30-SAp0I",{"id":909,"title":910,"body":911,"category":110,"description":995,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":996,"navigation":115,"order":997,"path":998,"readingTime":344,"related":999,"seo":1000,"seoDescription":1001,"seoTitle":1002,"slug":235,"sources":1003,"stem":1004,"__hash__":1005},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fmargin-of-safety.md","安全边际",{"type":7,"value":912,"toc":985},[913,915,918,921,923,926,929,931,934,937,939,942,945,947,950,953,955,958,961,963,977,979,982],[10,914,12],{"id":12},[14,916,917],{},"你要赶飞机。地图显示去机场需要 50 分钟，于是你提前 55 分钟出门。路上稍微堵一下，你就开始焦虑；安检排队长一点，你就可能误机。",[14,919,920],{},"你的计划不是坏在计算错了 50 分钟，而是坏在只给了 5 分钟缓冲。",[10,922,22],{"id":22},[14,924,925],{},"安全边际就是承认自己会估错，所以提前留下缓冲。",[14,927,928],{},"它不是预测灾难。它只是说：世界不会完全按你的表格运行。时间会超，成本会涨，人会犯错，环境会变。",[10,930,31],{"id":31},[14,932,933],{},"安全边际像桥梁的承重设计。桥不会只按“刚好能承受日常车辆”来建，它要能承受更大的压力，因为工程师知道现实里会有意外。",[14,935,936],{},"生活和投资也是工程问题。没有缓冲的系统，看起来效率高，其实很脆。",[10,938,40],{"id":40},[14,940,941],{},"人喜欢把计划写得刚刚好。刚好够钱，刚好够时间，刚好能完成，刚好不出错。",[14,943,944],{},"可现实从来不尊重“刚刚好”。安全边际让你在估计错了的时候，不至于一次错误就出局。",[10,946,49],{"id":49},[14,948,949],{},"芒格会避免把自己放在非赢不可的位置。在投资中，安全边际意味着即使估值偏乐观、行业变差、经营出问题，也不至于造成不可承受的损失。",[14,951,952],{},"他关心的不是每次都对，而是错的时候不要死。",[10,954,59],{"id":58},[14,956,957],{},"安全边际不是懒散。",[14,959,960],{},"如果你给所有事情都留巨大缓冲，结果什么也不做，那不是安全，是停滞。安全边际最该用在后果严重、估计容易错、难以补救的事情上。",[10,962,68],{"id":68},[70,964,965,968,971,974],{},[73,966,967],{},"我的计划是否建立在一切顺利之上？",[73,969,970],{},"哪个假设错了会导致最大损失？",[73,972,973],{},"我留下的缓冲能覆盖普通意外吗？",[73,975,976],{},"我能不能说明安全边际和概率思维有什么关系？",[10,978,87],{"id":87},[14,980,981],{},"选一个近期计划，把你原来的预算、时间或精力估计乘以 1.3。",[14,983,984],{},"然后问：如果这样安排后计划才变得安全，说明我原来是不是太乐观了？",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":986},[987,988,989,990,991,992,993,994],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"在判断可能出错时，给自己留下足够缓冲，避免一次错误造成毁灭性后果。",{},8,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fmargin-of-safety",[240,790],{"title":910,"description":995},"解释安全边际在投资、工作和生活中的作用：承认估计会错，所以给系统留下缓冲。","安全边际｜思维模型",[242],"models\u002Fmargin-of-safety","SiF-3ukvUsSZHalH8B2fvOaliGjpG-hj8ZjNDIbMPqw",{"id":1007,"title":1008,"body":1009,"category":667,"description":1104,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":1105,"navigation":115,"order":1106,"path":1107,"readingTime":1108,"related":1109,"seo":1110,"seoDescription":1111,"seoTitle":1112,"slug":121,"sources":1113,"stem":1114,"__hash__":1115},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fpsychology-of-misjudgment.md","心理误判",{"type":7,"value":1010,"toc":1094},[1011,1013,1016,1019,1021,1024,1027,1029,1032,1035,1037,1040,1043,1045,1048,1051,1053,1056,1059,1061,1075,1077,1080,1091],[10,1012,12],{"id":12},[14,1014,1015],{},"你买了一门很贵的课程。上了几节以后发现质量一般，但你还是继续听，还劝自己“后面可能会有用”。你不是因为证据变好了才坚持，而是因为已经花了钱，承认买错会让你难受。",[14,1017,1018],{},"这不是智商问题。这是心理误判。",[10,1020,22],{"id":22},[14,1022,1023],{},"心理误判就是大脑在利益、面子、恐惧、群体和情绪影响下，反复犯的判断错误。",[14,1025,1026],{},"我们不是纯粹理性机器。我们会保护自尊，会讨厌损失，会跟随群体，会给自己找理由。",[10,1028,31],{"id":31},[14,1030,1031],{},"心理误判像眼镜上的污渍。你以为自己在看世界，其实你也在看污渍。",[14,1033,1034],{},"更麻烦的是，污渍在你自己的眼镜上，所以你最不容易发现。",[10,1036,40],{"id":40},[14,1038,1039],{},"很多错误不是因为信息不够，而是信息已经摆在那里，人却不愿意看。",[14,1041,1042],{},"项目已经失败，负责人不想承认；股票逻辑变了，持有人继续寻找好消息；群体都在兴奋，个人就把热闹当成证据。心理误判最危险的地方，是它会让你觉得自己很理性。",[10,1044,49],{"id":49},[14,1046,1047],{},"芒格会把心理误判当成一张危险清单。他不会只问“我是不是聪明”，而会问：我是不是受激励影响？是不是在保护面子？是不是因为投入太多不愿退出？是不是被群体情绪带走？",[14,1049,1050],{},"聪明不能自动抵消偏差。有时聪明人只是更擅长为错误找漂亮理由。",[10,1052,59],{"id":58},[14,1054,1055],{},"知道偏差名称，不等于避免偏差。",[14,1057,1058],{},"如果你能背出“确认偏误”“损失厌恶”“社会认同”，但关键时刻还是只看支持自己的证据，那你只是记住了名字。费曼会说：别被术语骗了。看行为。",[10,1060,68],{"id":68},[70,1062,1063,1066,1069,1072],{},[73,1064,1065],{},"我最近有没有因为已经投入太多而不愿退出？",[73,1067,1068],{},"我有没有把群体热情当成证据？",[73,1070,1071],{},"我有没有主动寻找能推翻自己的信息？",[73,1073,1074],{},"我能不能说明心理误判和检查清单有什么关系？",[10,1076,87],{"id":87},[14,1078,1079],{},"找一个你很想相信的判断，写下：",[70,1081,1082,1085,1088],{},[73,1083,1084],{},"支持它的证据。",[73,1086,1087],{},"反对它的证据。",[73,1089,1090],{},"如果我是错的，最可能错在哪里？",[14,1092,1093],{},"第三项最难写，也最有价值。",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1095},[1096,1097,1098,1099,1100,1101,1102,1103],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"人的判断会被过度自信、社会认同、损失厌恶和激励等心理倾向系统性扭曲。",{},9,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fpsychology-of-misjudgment","7 分钟",[565,125],{"title":1008,"description":1104},"介绍芒格关于人类误判心理的核心观点，帮助识别常见认知偏差和行为陷阱。","心理误判｜思维模型",[677,127],"models\u002Fpsychology-of-misjudgment","At2GFadjNNvlR7EwsN-LO-gMh09mbajdUZz1h0qqfAE",{"id":4,"title":5,"body":1117,"category":110,"description":111,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":1185,"navigation":115,"order":116,"path":117,"readingTime":118,"related":1186,"seo":1187,"seoDescription":123,"seoTitle":124,"slug":125,"sources":1188,"stem":128,"__hash__":129},{"type":7,"value":1118,"toc":1175},[1119,1121,1123,1125,1127,1129,1131,1133,1135,1137,1139,1141,1143,1145,1147,1149,1151,1153,1155,1157,1167,1169,1171],[10,1120,12],{"id":12},[14,1122,16],{},[14,1124,19],{},[10,1126,22],{"id":22},[14,1128,25],{},[14,1130,28],{},[10,1132,31],{"id":31},[14,1134,34],{},[14,1136,37],{},[10,1138,40],{"id":40},[14,1140,43],{},[14,1142,46],{},[10,1144,49],{"id":49},[14,1146,52],{},[14,1148,55],{},[10,1150,59],{"id":58},[14,1152,62],{},[14,1154,65],{},[10,1156,68],{"id":68},[70,1158,1159,1161,1163,1165],{},[73,1160,75],{},[73,1162,78],{},[73,1164,81],{},[73,1166,84],{},[10,1168,87],{"id":87},[14,1170,90],{},[14,1172,93,1173,97],{},[95,1174],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1176},[1177,1178,1179,1180,1181,1182,1183,1184],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},{},[120,121],{"title":5,"description":111},[127],{"id":1190,"title":1191,"body":1192,"category":448,"description":1287,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":1288,"navigation":115,"order":1289,"path":1290,"readingTime":344,"related":1291,"seo":1292,"seoDescription":1293,"seoTitle":1294,"slug":1295,"sources":1296,"stem":1297,"__hash__":1298},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fscale-advantage.md","规模优势",{"type":7,"value":1193,"toc":1277},[1194,1196,1199,1202,1205,1207,1210,1213,1215,1218,1221,1223,1226,1229,1231,1234,1237,1239,1242,1245,1247,1261,1263,1266],[10,1195,12],{"id":12},[14,1197,1198],{},"小店进一箱货，大超市一次进一万箱。供应商给大超市更低价格，大超市还能把物流、广告和仓储成本摊到更多商品上。",[14,1200,1201],{},"于是大超市可以更便宜，也更容易被顾客记住。",[14,1203,1204],{},"这就是规模可能带来的优势。",[10,1206,22],{"id":22},[14,1208,1209],{},"规模优势就是：一个组织变大以后，获得了小组织没有的成本、品牌、渠道、数据或网络效应。",[14,1211,1212],{},"注意，是“可能”。变大本身不是优势。变大后能把某些事情做得更便宜、更快、更可信、更难被复制，才是优势。",[10,1214,31],{"id":31},[14,1216,1217],{},"规模像一台更大的机器。它可以生产更多东西，摊薄成本，也可能因为太大而转弯困难。",[14,1219,1220],{},"大不是答案。大以后发生了什么，才是答案。",[10,1222,40],{"id":40},[14,1224,1225],{},"很多人看到大公司，就自动以为它有护城河。但有些规模只是体量，不是优势。",[14,1227,1228],{},"真正要问的是：规模有没有降低单位成本？有没有增强品牌信任？有没有让用户越多越有用？有没有让后来者更难追？",[10,1230,49],{"id":49},[14,1232,1233],{},"芒格会看规模能不能转化成持久竞争优势。比如更低成本、更强分销、更高客户习惯、更强品牌记忆。",[14,1235,1236],{},"如果规模只是让组织层级更多、决策更慢、官僚更多，那它不是护城河，而是负担。",[10,1238,59],{"id":58},[14,1240,1241],{},"规模不是天然优势。",[14,1243,1244],{},"一家亏损的平台可以很大，一个低效组织也可以很大。没有效率、信任、网络效应或成本结构支撑的规模，只是更大的复杂性。",[10,1246,68],{"id":68},[70,1248,1249,1252,1255,1258],{},[73,1250,1251],{},"规模带来的具体好处是什么？",[73,1253,1254],{},"这种好处会随规模继续增强，还是已经到顶？",[73,1256,1257],{},"竞争者能不能用钱快速复制？",[73,1259,1260],{},"我能不能说明规模优势和二阶效应有什么关系？",[10,1262,87],{"id":87},[14,1264,1265],{},"选一个你熟悉的大公司，写下：",[70,1267,1268,1271,1274],{},[73,1269,1270],{},"它的大，具体带来了什么好处？",[73,1272,1273],{},"这个好处给了客户，还是只给了公司？",[73,1275,1276],{},"规模有没有同时带来迟钝和官僚？",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1278},[1279,1280,1281,1282,1283,1284,1285,1286],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"规模会降低成本、增强分销和品牌，但也可能带来迟钝、官僚和错误放大。",{},11,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fscale-advantage",[565,346],{"title":1191,"description":1287},"解释规模优势如何影响企业竞争力，以及为什么规模既可能是护城河，也可能制造迟钝。","规模优势｜思维模型","scale-advantage",[127,242],"models\u002Fscale-advantage","yABiiH1G59i0Wp9khlfki6YPTSn85siNOZMjZnFeUB0",{"id":1300,"title":1301,"body":1302,"category":1397,"description":1398,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":1399,"navigation":115,"order":1400,"path":1401,"readingTime":344,"related":1402,"seo":1403,"seoDescription":1404,"seoTitle":1405,"slug":901,"sources":1406,"stem":1407,"__hash__":1408},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fredundancy.md","冗余与容错",{"type":7,"value":1303,"toc":1387},[1304,1306,1309,1312,1314,1317,1320,1322,1325,1328,1330,1333,1336,1338,1341,1344,1346,1349,1352,1354,1368,1370,1373,1384],[10,1305,12],{"id":12},[14,1307,1308],{},"你的电脑里只有一份毕业论文，存在本机桌面。你觉得这样最简单、最高效。直到某天硬盘坏了。",[14,1310,1311],{},"备份平时看起来没用。出事的时候，它就是全部。",[10,1313,22],{"id":22},[14,1315,1316],{},"冗余与容错就是在系统里保留备份和缓冲，让一个地方失败时，整个系统不会跟着崩。",[14,1318,1319],{},"冗余看起来像多余，但它是在给现实世界的意外留位置。",[10,1321,31],{"id":31},[14,1323,1324],{},"冗余像飞机上的多个发动机和备用系统。平时你希望它们永远用不上，但如果一个系统坏了，备用系统能让飞机继续安全运行。",[14,1326,1327],{},"真正重要的系统，不能只追求刚好能跑。",[10,1329,40],{"id":40},[14,1331,1332],{},"极限效率很迷人。没有库存、没有备用人、没有现金、没有时间缓冲、没有备份，看起来都很轻。",[14,1334,1335],{},"但这样的系统很脆。只要一个环节出错，局部故障就会变成整体灾难。",[10,1337,49],{"id":49},[14,1339,1340],{},"芒格重视避免毁灭性错误。无论是财务杠杆、企业运营，还是个人生活，把系统推到极限都很危险。",[14,1342,1343],{},"留有余地，表面上降低了效率，实际上提高了生存概率。",[10,1345,59],{"id":58},[14,1347,1348],{},"冗余不是浪费的借口。",[14,1350,1351],{},"如果一个团队用“我们需要冗余”来保留没人负责的流程、重复审批和低效岗位，那不是容错，是懒惰。关键是区分：这个备份是否保护了关键系统？",[10,1353,68],{"id":68},[70,1355,1356,1359,1362,1365],{},[73,1357,1358],{},"哪个环节失败会拖垮整个系统？",[73,1360,1361],{},"我是否为了表面效率删除了必要缓冲？",[73,1363,1364],{},"失败发生后，系统能不能降级运行？",[73,1366,1367],{},"我能不能说明冗余和安全边际有什么关系？",[10,1369,87],{"id":87},[14,1371,1372],{},"检查一个你不能承受丢失的东西：",[70,1374,1375,1378,1381],{},[73,1376,1377],{},"重要文件有没有备份？",[73,1379,1380],{},"现金流有没有缓冲？",[73,1382,1383],{},"项目有没有替代负责人？",[14,1385,1386],{},"如果答案是否定的，你不是高效，你只是运气还不错。",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1388},[1389,1390,1391,1392,1393,1394,1395,1396],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"工程学\u002F系统","重要系统不能只追求极限效率，还需要备份、缓冲和失败后的恢复能力。",{},12,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fredundancy",[235,346],{"title":1301,"description":1398},"解释冗余与容错为什么是系统稳定性的基础，帮助普通读者理解效率和韧性的权衡。","冗余与容错｜思维模型",[127],"models\u002Fredundancy","kviqHcC_tgpdZS9hx4SXx12jDugW8mKJSCICNqoFn_I",{"id":1410,"title":1411,"body":1412,"category":559,"description":1496,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":1497,"navigation":115,"order":1498,"path":1499,"readingTime":118,"related":1500,"seo":1501,"seoDescription":1502,"seoTitle":1503,"slug":1504,"sources":1505,"stem":1507,"__hash__":1508},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fcombinatorics.md","排列组合",{"type":7,"value":1413,"toc":1486},[1414,1416,1419,1422,1424,1427,1430,1432,1435,1438,1440,1443,1446,1448,1451,1454,1456,1459,1462,1464,1478,1480,1483],[10,1415,12],{"id":12},[14,1417,1418],{},"你在设计一个套餐，价格、渠道、用户和时间都能变化。单看每个因素都简单，组合起来就很多。",[14,1420,1421],{},"先别急着给它贴术语。真正要看的是：这里有什么力量在起作用？如果把名字拿掉，你还能不能解释它？",[10,1423,22],{"id":22},[14,1425,1426],{},"可能性不是凭感觉猜出来的，而是由几个变量组合出来的。",[14,1428,1429],{},"用费曼式说法，理解一个模型不是会背名字，而是能用普通话说清：它提醒我看见什么，避免我被什么骗。",[10,1431,31],{"id":31},[14,1433,1434],{},"乐高积木，同样几块积木，换一种组合就变成不同形状。",[14,1436,1437],{},"这个比喻的重点不在形象，而在结构：一个看似复杂的问题，背后通常有更简单的机制。",[10,1439,40],{"id":40},[14,1441,1442],{},"用它穷举方案、找遗漏、估计复杂度。",[14,1444,1445],{},"很多错误不是因为信息完全没有，而是因为我们看错了重点。这个模型的作用，就是把注意力拉回真正起作用的地方。",[10,1447,49],{"id":49},[14,1449,1450],{},"芒格会把它放进多元思维格栅里，而不是单独崇拜一个概念。他会继续问：这里有没有激励问题？有没有心理误判？有没有二阶效应？如果判断错了，安全边际够不够？",[14,1452,1453],{},"换句话说，这个模型不是答案本身，而是一副更清楚的眼镜。",[10,1455,59],{"id":58},[14,1457,1458],{},"不要把排列组合变成机械穷举；变量太多时要先抓关键变量。",[14,1460,1461],{},"模型最常见的误用，是把名字当成理解。能说出术语并不代表你会用它；能在真实情境里看见它，才算真正开始理解。",[10,1463,68],{"id":68},[70,1465,1466,1469,1472,1475],{},[73,1467,1468],{},"我能不能不用术语解释这个模型？",[73,1470,1471],{},"我能不能举出一个生活或工作中的例子？",[73,1473,1474],{},"这个模型最容易被我误用在哪里？",[73,1476,1477],{},"它和能力圈、激励机制或安全边际有什么关系？",[10,1479,87],{"id":87},[14,1481,1482],{},"把一个选择拆成三个变量，每个变量列出两三个选项，再看会组合出多少种结果。",[14,1484,1485],{},"不要追求一次把模型用得很漂亮。先把它用在一个小判断上，看它是否真的让你少一点自欺，多一点清楚。",{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1487},[1488,1489,1490,1491,1492,1493,1494,1495],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"把复杂结果拆成若干元素和组合方式，先数清可能性，再谈判断。",{},13,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fcombinatorics",[790,454],{"title":1411,"description":1496},"用费曼教学法解释排列组合：把复杂结果拆成若干元素和组合方式，先数清可能性，再谈判断。","排列组合｜思维模型","combinatorics",[127,1506],"ayaseeri.com 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{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1749},[1750,1751,1752,1753,1754,1755,1756,1757],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"把模糊判断尽量转成数字，让争论从感觉回到证据。",{},16,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fquantitative-analysis",[790,454],{"title":1685,"description":1758},"用费曼教学法解释量化分析：把模糊判断尽量转成数字，让争论从感觉回到证据。","量化分析｜思维模型","quantitative-analysis",[127,1506],"models\u002Fquantitative-analysis","huNnSeYocVDgZE1tSgbD46pcXAF68He_NJvtDaHwr_c",{"id":1771,"title":1772,"body":1773,"category":1845,"description":1846,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":1847,"navigation":115,"order":1848,"path":1849,"readingTime":344,"related":1850,"seo":1851,"seoDescription":1852,"seoTitle":1853,"slug":1854,"sources":1855,"stem":1856,"__hash__":1857},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fcritical-point-phase-transition.md","临界点\u002F相变",{"type":7,"value":1774,"toc":1835},[1775,1777,1780,1782,1784,1787,1789,1791,1794,1796,1798,1801,1803,1805,1807,1809,1811,1814,1816,1818,1828,1830,1833],[10,1776,12],{"id":12},[14,1778,1779],{},"水慢慢加热时还是水，但到沸点后状态突然改变。企业、舆论和习惯也可能这样。",[14,1781,1421],{},[10,1783,22],{"id":22},[14,1785,1786],{},"很多变化不是线性的，关键在阈值。",[14,1788,1429],{},[10,1790,31],{"id":31},[14,1792,1793],{},"烧水，99 度和 100 度只差一点，但状态不同。",[14,1795,1437],{},[10,1797,40],{"id":40},[14,1799,1800],{},"用它寻找拐点，也警惕风险积累后的突然爆发。",[14,1802,1445],{},[10,1804,49],{"id":49},[14,1806,1450],{},[14,1808,1453],{},[10,1810,59],{"id":58},[14,1812,1813],{},"不要事后把所有变化都解释成临界点。",[14,1815,1461],{},[10,1817,68],{"id":68},[70,1819,1820,1822,1824,1826],{},[73,1821,1468],{},[73,1823,1471],{},[73,1825,1474],{},[73,1827,1477],{},[10,1829,87],{"id":87},[14,1831,1832],{},"问一个系统现在离关键阈值有多远。",[14,1834,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1836},[1837,1838,1839,1840,1841,1842,1843,1844],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"物理学","系统积累到某个阈值后，会从量变突然进入质变。",{},17,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fcritical-point-phase-transition",[346,235],{"title":1772,"description":1846},"用费曼教学法解释临界点\u002F相变：系统积累到某个阈值后，会从量变突然进入质变。","临界点\u002F相变｜思维模型","critical-point-phase-transition",[127,1506],"models\u002Fcritical-point-phase-transition","PJLgrzstLtAvO2P87jJN6ePsDltq4tnudId0M2xz1AQ",{"id":1859,"title":1860,"body":1861,"category":1845,"description":1933,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":1934,"navigation":115,"order":1935,"path":1936,"readingTime":118,"related":1937,"seo":1938,"seoDescription":1939,"seoTitle":1940,"slug":1941,"sources":1942,"stem":1943,"__hash__":1944},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fequilibrium.md","平衡态",{"type":7,"value":1862,"toc":1923},[1863,1865,1868,1870,1872,1875,1877,1879,1882,1884,1886,1889,1891,1893,1895,1897,1899,1902,1904,1906,1916,1918,1921],[10,1864,12],{"id":12},[14,1866,1867],{},"价格太高，买的人少；价格太低，卖的人不愿卖。市场会在拉扯中找平衡。",[14,1869,1421],{},[10,1871,22],{"id":22},[14,1873,1874],{},"稳定不是没有力量，而是力量暂时互相抵消。",[14,1876,1429],{},[10,1878,31],{"id":31},[14,1880,1881],{},"拔河，绳子不动不代表没人用力。",[14,1883,1437],{},[10,1885,40],{"id":40},[14,1887,1888],{},"用它理解市场、组织和关系为什么会卡在某个状态。",[14,1890,1445],{},[10,1892,49],{"id":49},[14,1894,1450],{},[14,1896,1453],{},[10,1898,59],{"id":58},[14,1900,1901],{},"不要以为平衡永远稳定，外力变化会打破它。",[14,1903,1461],{},[10,1905,68],{"id":68},[70,1907,1908,1910,1912,1914],{},[73,1909,1468],{},[73,1911,1471],{},[73,1913,1474],{},[73,1915,1477],{},[10,1917,87],{"id":87},[14,1919,1920],{},"找一个停滞局面，列出维持它的两股力量。",[14,1922,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":1924},[1925,1926,1927,1928,1929,1930,1931,1932],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"系统里的力量会相互拉扯，最后形成某种相对稳定状态。",{},18,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fequilibrium",[346,235],{"title":1860,"description":1933},"用费曼教学法解释平衡态：系统里的力量会相互拉扯，最后形成某种相对稳定状态。","平衡态｜思维模型","equilibrium",[127,1506],"models\u002Fequilibrium","iZJKF2yJ4G-hNUFT0oWGQGWA088rrDDm7EHmwFWnJRM",{"id":1946,"title":1947,"body":1948,"category":1845,"description":2020,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":2021,"navigation":115,"order":2022,"path":2023,"readingTime":118,"related":2024,"seo":2025,"seoDescription":2026,"seoTitle":2027,"slug":2028,"sources":2029,"stem":2030,"__hash__":2031},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fentropy.md","熵增定律",{"type":7,"value":1949,"toc":2010},[1950,1952,1955,1957,1959,1962,1964,1966,1969,1971,1973,1976,1978,1980,1982,1984,1986,1989,1991,1993,2003,2005,2008],[10,1951,12],{"id":12},[14,1953,1954],{},"房间几天不收拾就变乱，项目没人维护就堆满临时方案。",[14,1956,1421],{},[10,1958,22],{"id":22},[14,1960,1961],{},"秩序需要持续付出，混乱不需要。",[14,1963,1429],{},[10,1965,31],{"id":31},[14,1967,1968],{},"花园，不打理就会长满杂草。",[14,1970,1437],{},[10,1972,40],{"id":40},[14,1974,1975],{},"用它理解维护、复盘、流程和文化建设的必要性。",[14,1977,1445],{},[10,1979,49],{"id":49},[14,1981,1450],{},[14,1983,1453],{},[10,1985,59],{"id":58},[14,1987,1988],{},"不要把熵增当成放弃管理的借口。",[14,1990,1461],{},[10,1992,68],{"id":68},[70,1994,1995,1997,1999,2001],{},[73,1996,1468],{},[73,1998,1471],{},[73,2000,1474],{},[73,2002,1477],{},[10,2004,87],{"id":87},[14,2006,2007],{},"找一个正在变乱的系统，设计一个低成本维护动作。",[14,2009,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":2011},[2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"如果不投入能量，系统会自然走向混乱和无序。",{},19,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fentropy",[346,235],{"title":1947,"description":2020},"用费曼教学法解释熵增定律：如果不投入能量，系统会自然走向混乱和无序。","熵增定律｜思维模型","entropy",[127,1506],"models\u002Fentropy","BEwLIdDXiqDwO_naXBM0khWTSmeh8qX8Eb90Icq7_rw",{"id":2033,"title":2034,"body":2035,"category":1845,"description":2107,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":2108,"navigation":115,"order":2109,"path":2110,"readingTime":118,"related":2111,"seo":2112,"seoDescription":2113,"seoTitle":2114,"slug":2115,"sources":2116,"stem":2117,"__hash__":2118},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fconservation-of-energy.md","能量守恒",{"type":7,"value":2036,"toc":2097},[2037,2039,2042,2044,2046,2049,2051,2053,2056,2058,2060,2063,2065,2067,2069,2071,2073,2076,2078,2080,2090,2092,2095],[10,2038,12],{"id":12},[14,2040,2041],{},"你想同时提高质量、降低成本、缩短时间，却没有增加人力或工具。最后压力只会转移到团队身上。",[14,2043,1421],{},[10,2045,22],{"id":22},[14,2047,2048],{},"没有免费的产出，只有被隐藏的成本。",[14,2050,1429],{},[10,2052,31],{"id":31},[14,2054,2055],{},"跷跷板，一边抬高，另一边往往要付出代价。",[14,2057,1437],{},[10,2059,40],{"id":40},[14,2061,2062],{},"用它追问资源从哪里来、成本转移到哪里去。",[14,2064,1445],{},[10,2066,49],{"id":49},[14,2068,1450],{},[14,2070,1453],{},[10,2072,59],{"id":58},[14,2074,2075],{},"不要机械套用物理定律到所有社会现象。",[14,2077,1461],{},[10,2079,68],{"id":68},[70,2081,2082,2084,2086,2088],{},[73,2083,1468],{},[73,2085,1471],{},[73,2087,1474],{},[73,2089,1477],{},[10,2091,87],{"id":87},[14,2093,2094],{},"问一个计划需要的时间、钱、注意力分别从哪里来。",[14,2096,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":2098},[2099,2100,2101,2102,2103,2104,2105,2106],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"资源不会凭空出现，投入、转化和损耗都要被看见。",{},20,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fconservation-of-energy",[346,235],{"title":2034,"description":2107},"用费曼教学法解释能量守恒：资源不会凭空出现，投入、转化和损耗都要被看见。","能量守恒｜思维模型","conservation-of-energy",[127,1506],"models\u002Fconservation-of-energy","es_KUGN4bv-HfMNkKtBp6S7PY--Ps5nC0b1IwrBCkVI",{"id":2120,"title":2121,"body":2122,"category":1845,"description":2194,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":2195,"navigation":115,"order":2196,"path":2197,"readingTime":118,"related":2198,"seo":2199,"seoDescription":2200,"seoTitle":2201,"slug":2202,"sources":2203,"stem":2204,"__hash__":2205},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fleverage.md","杠杆原理",{"type":7,"value":2123,"toc":2184},[2124,2126,2129,2131,2133,2136,2138,2140,2143,2145,2147,2150,2152,2154,2156,2158,2160,2163,2165,2167,2177,2179,2182],[10,2125,12],{"id":12},[14,2127,2128],{},"一个模板、一个渠道、一个标准流程，可能让同样的人做出更多成果。",[14,2130,1421],{},[10,2132,22],{"id":22},[14,2134,2135],{},"杠杆不是蛮力，而是让力量作用在关键位置。",[14,2137,1429],{},[10,2139,31],{"id":31},[14,2141,2142],{},"撬棍，关键不是人更强，而是支点放得对。",[14,2144,1437],{},[10,2146,40],{"id":40},[14,2148,2149],{},"用它寻找能放大能力的工具、流程、品牌、资本和分销。",[14,2151,1445],{},[10,2153,49],{"id":49},[14,2155,1450],{},[14,2157,1453],{},[10,2159,59],{"id":58},[14,2161,2162],{},"不要把高杠杆误解成高风险借债。",[14,2164,1461],{},[10,2166,68],{"id":68},[70,2168,2169,2171,2173,2175],{},[73,2170,1468],{},[73,2172,1471],{},[73,2174,1474],{},[73,2176,1477],{},[10,2178,87],{"id":87},[14,2180,2181],{},"列出你工作里能重复放大的一个动作。",[14,2183,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":2185},[2186,2187,2188,2189,2190,2191,2192,2193],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"找到支点后，小力量也能撬动大结果。",{},21,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fleverage",[346,235],{"title":2121,"description":2194},"用费曼教学法解释杠杆原理：找到支点后，小力量也能撬动大结果。","杠杆原理｜思维模型","leverage",[127,1506],"models\u002Fleverage","IHjhbNufKVyGX-t81x2h2lLs5wfPfOWI-kP16eNBeWY",{"id":2207,"title":2208,"body":2209,"category":2281,"description":2282,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":2283,"navigation":115,"order":2284,"path":2285,"readingTime":118,"related":2286,"seo":2287,"seoDescription":2288,"seoTitle":2289,"slug":2290,"sources":2291,"stem":2292,"__hash__":2293},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fnatural-selection.md","自然选择",{"type":7,"value":2210,"toc":2271},[2211,2213,2216,2218,2220,2223,2225,2227,2230,2232,2234,2237,2239,2241,2243,2245,2247,2250,2252,2254,2264,2266,2269],[10,2212,12],{"id":12},[14,2214,2215],{},"一个产品功能很多，但用户只持续使用其中两个。市场像环境，会留下真正适应需求的部分。",[14,2217,1421],{},[10,2219,22],{"id":22},[14,2221,2222],{},"适应比漂亮更重要。",[14,2224,1429],{},[10,2226,31],{"id":31},[14,2228,2229],{},"筛子，留下来的不是你喜欢的，而是能通过筛选条件的。",[14,2231,1437],{},[10,2233,40],{"id":40},[14,2235,2236],{},"用它理解竞争、产品迭代和组织生存。",[14,2238,1445],{},[10,2240,49],{"id":49},[14,2242,1450],{},[14,2244,1453],{},[10,2246,59],{"id":58},[14,2248,2249],{},"不要把“留下来”误解成“道德上更好”。",[14,2251,1461],{},[10,2253,68],{"id":68},[70,2255,2256,2258,2260,2262],{},[73,2257,1468],{},[73,2259,1471],{},[73,2261,1474],{},[73,2263,1477],{},[10,2265,87],{"id":87},[14,2267,2268],{},"问你的方案适应的是哪个真实环境。",[14,2270,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":2272},[2273,2274,2275,2276,2277,2278,2279,2280],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"生物学\u002F进化论","环境会筛选更适应的特征，能留下来的不一定最强，而是更适合。",{},22,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fnatural-selection",[901,1295],{"title":2208,"description":2282},"用费曼教学法解释自然选择：环境会筛选更适应的特征，能留下来的不一定最强，而是更适合。","自然选择｜思维模型","natural-selection",[127,1506],"models\u002Fnatural-selection","QIc0SrP-qlyBBtw5ec-6MuXgYsnaLFukyURawIpq8sY",{"id":2295,"title":2296,"body":2297,"category":2281,"description":2369,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":2370,"navigation":115,"order":2371,"path":2372,"readingTime":118,"related":2373,"seo":2374,"seoDescription":2375,"seoTitle":2376,"slug":2377,"sources":2378,"stem":2379,"__hash__":2380},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fcompetition-for-resources.md","物竞天择",{"type":7,"value":2298,"toc":2359},[2299,2301,2304,2306,2308,2311,2313,2315,2318,2320,2322,2325,2327,2329,2331,2333,2335,2338,2340,2342,2352,2354,2357],[10,2300,12],{"id":12},[14,2302,2303],{},"同一条街开了太多咖啡店，客流、租金和注意力都成了竞争对象。",[14,2305,1421],{},[10,2307,22],{"id":22},[14,2309,2310],{},"竞争常常不是口号，而是对稀缺资源的争夺。",[14,2312,1429],{},[10,2314,31],{"id":31},[14,2316,2317],{},"一片阳光有限的森林，树会争夺光照。",[14,2319,1437],{},[10,2321,40],{"id":40},[14,2323,2324],{},"用它识别真正稀缺的资源。",[14,2326,1445],{},[10,2328,49],{"id":49},[14,2330,1450],{},[14,2332,1453],{},[10,2334,59],{"id":58},[14,2336,2337],{},"不要把所有关系都看成零和竞争。",[14,2339,1461],{},[10,2341,68],{"id":68},[70,2343,2344,2346,2348,2350],{},[73,2345,1468],{},[73,2347,1471],{},[73,2349,1474],{},[73,2351,1477],{},[10,2353,87],{"id":87},[14,2355,2356],{},"写下你所在系统里最稀缺的三种资源。",[14,2358,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":2360},[2361,2362,2363,2364,2365,2366,2367,2368],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"资源有限时，个体和组织会围绕关键资源竞争。",{},23,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fcompetition-for-resources",[901,1295],{"title":2296,"description":2369},"用费曼教学法解释物竞天择：资源有限时，个体和组织会围绕关键资源竞争。","物竞天择｜思维模型","competition-for-resources",[127,1506],"models\u002Fcompetition-for-resources","U362JyAK9KoWvM0FZrnIoYt3oDVXAcFe7eImGsgX0yQ",{"id":2382,"title":2383,"body":2384,"category":2281,"description":2456,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":2457,"navigation":115,"order":2458,"path":2459,"readingTime":118,"related":2460,"seo":2461,"seoDescription":2462,"seoTitle":2463,"slug":2464,"sources":2465,"stem":2466,"__hash__":2467},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fevolutionary-thinking.md","进化思维",{"type":7,"value":2385,"toc":2446},[2386,2388,2391,2393,2395,2398,2400,2402,2405,2407,2409,2412,2414,2416,2418,2420,2422,2425,2427,2429,2439,2441,2444],[10,2387,12],{"id":12},[14,2389,2390],{},"一个产品第一版很粗糙，但每周根据真实反馈改一点，半年后反而更贴合用户。",[14,2392,1421],{},[10,2394,22],{"id":22},[14,2396,2397],{},"进化不是计划少，而是让反馈参与计划。",[14,2399,1429],{},[10,2401,31],{"id":31},[14,2403,2404],{},"育种，保留更好的性状，淘汰不适应的变化。",[14,2406,1437],{},[10,2408,40],{"id":40},[14,2410,2411],{},"用它设计小实验和快速迭代。",[14,2413,1445],{},[10,2415,49],{"id":49},[14,2417,1450],{},[14,2419,1453],{},[10,2421,59],{"id":58},[14,2423,2424],{},"不要用进化思维掩盖没有方向的乱试。",[14,2426,1461],{},[10,2428,68],{"id":68},[70,2430,2431,2433,2435,2437],{},[73,2432,1468],{},[73,2434,1471],{},[73,2436,1474],{},[73,2438,1477],{},[10,2440,87],{"id":87},[14,2442,2443],{},"把一个大目标拆成一个本周可验证的小实验。",[14,2445,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":2447},[2448,2449,2450,2451,2452,2453,2454,2455],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"复杂系统通常靠小步试错、保留有效变化，而不是一次设计完美。",{},24,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fevolutionary-thinking",[901,1295],{"title":2383,"description":2456},"用费曼教学法解释进化思维：复杂系统通常靠小步试错、保留有效变化，而不是一次设计完美。","进化思维｜思维模型","evolutionary-thinking",[127,1506],"models\u002Fevolutionary-thinking","8svxpJGl6oMx1dJ6CTuW0YB_EJ-PJ_hS2Lhfo5xmfZs",{"id":2469,"title":2470,"body":2471,"category":2281,"description":2543,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":2544,"navigation":115,"order":2545,"path":2546,"readingTime":344,"related":2547,"seo":2548,"seoDescription":2549,"seoTitle":2550,"slug":2551,"sources":2552,"stem":2553,"__hash__":2554},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fecosystem.md","生态系统",{"type":7,"value":2472,"toc":2533},[2473,2475,2478,2480,2482,2485,2487,2489,2492,2494,2496,2499,2501,2503,2505,2507,2509,2512,2514,2516,2526,2528,2531],[10,2474,12],{"id":12},[14,2476,2477],{},"平台改变规则，商家、用户、服务商和广告主都会跟着改变行为。",[14,2479,1421],{},[10,2481,22],{"id":22},[14,2483,2484],{},"你面对的不是单点对象，而是一组关系。",[14,2486,1429],{},[10,2488,31],{"id":31},[14,2490,2491],{},"池塘，鱼、水草、阳光和微生物彼此影响。",[14,2493,1437],{},[10,2495,40],{"id":40},[14,2497,2498],{},"用它理解平台、行业和组织网络。",[14,2500,1445],{},[10,2502,49],{"id":49},[14,2504,1450],{},[14,2506,1453],{},[10,2508,59],{"id":58},[14,2510,2511],{},"不要把生态系统当成漂亮词，必须说清各角色如何交换价值。",[14,2513,1461],{},[10,2515,68],{"id":68},[70,2517,2518,2520,2522,2524],{},[73,2519,1468],{},[73,2521,1471],{},[73,2523,1474],{},[73,2525,1477],{},[10,2527,87],{"id":87},[14,2529,2530],{},"画出一个业务的五个参与者和它们之间的利益流动。",[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秒，看似很小，却可能显著降低转化。",[14,4915,1421],{},[10,4917,22],{"id":22},[14,4919,4920],{},"世界里有阈值、网络效应和反馈回路。",[14,4922,1429],{},[10,4924,31],{"id":31},[14,4926,4927],{},"雪崩，一片雪花也可能触发巨大变化。",[14,4929,1437],{},[10,4931,40],{"id":40},[14,4933,4934],{},"用它寻找关键节点和放大效应。",[14,4936,1445],{},[10,4938,49],{"id":49},[14,4940,1450],{},[14,4942,1453],{},[10,4944,59],{"id":58},[14,4946,4947],{},"不要把所有不确定都叫非线性。",[14,4949,1461],{},[10,4951,68],{"id":68},[70,4953,4954,4956,4958,4960],{},[73,4955,1468],{},[73,4957,1471],{},[73,4959,1474],{},[73,4961,1477],{},[10,4963,87],{"id":87},[14,4965,4966],{},"找一个小改动可能带来大影响的地方。",[14,4968,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":4970},[4971,4972,4973,4974,4975,4976,4977,4978],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"投入和结果不总是等比例变化，小变化可能带来大后果。",{},53,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fnonlinear-thinking",[120,235],{"title":4906,"description":4979},"用费曼教学法解释非线性思维：投入和结果不总是等比例变化，小变化可能带来大后果。","非线性思维｜思维模型","nonlinear-thinking",[127,1506],"models\u002Fnonlinear-thinking","tmoIO7HYy41PWYlhkE8fp2m11jX7s4M6XDGLLnABdu8",{"id":4992,"title":4993,"body":4994,"category":110,"description":5066,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":5067,"navigation":115,"order":5068,"path":5069,"readingTime":118,"related":5070,"seo":5071,"seoDescription":5072,"seoTitle":5073,"slug":5074,"sources":5075,"stem":5076,"__hash__":5077},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fextreme-thinking.md","极化思考",{"type":7,"value":4995,"toc":5056},[4996,4998,5001,5003,5005,5008,5010,5012,5015,5017,5019,5022,5024,5026,5028,5030,5032,5035,5037,5039,5049,5051,5054],[10,4997,12],{"id":12},[14,4999,5000],{},"如果预算只有十分之一，你会先砍什么？如果用户增长十倍，哪里先崩？",[14,5002,1421],{},[10,5004,22],{"id":22},[14,5006,5007],{},"极端问题能暴露核心变量。",[14,5009,1429],{},[10,5011,31],{"id":31},[14,5013,5014],{},"压力测试，把桥放到更大载荷下看哪里先出问题。",[14,5016,1437],{},[10,5018,40],{"id":40},[14,5020,5021],{},"用它做风险检查和优先级排序。",[14,5023,1445],{},[10,5025,49],{"id":49},[14,5027,1450],{},[14,5029,1453],{},[10,5031,59],{"id":58},[14,5033,5034],{},"不要真的按极端方案行动，它是思考工具。",[14,5036,1461],{},[10,5038,68],{"id":68},[70,5040,5041,5043,5045,5047],{},[73,5042,1468],{},[73,5044,1471],{},[73,5046,1474],{},[73,5048,1477],{},[10,5050,87],{"id":87},[14,5052,5053],{},"问：如果资源减半，什么必须保留？",[14,5055,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":5057},[5058,5059,5060,5061,5062,5063,5064,5065],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"把问题推到极端情形，看清真正约束。",{},54,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fextreme-thinking",[120,235],{"title":4993,"description":5066},"用费曼教学法解释极化思考：把问题推到极端情形，看清真正约束。","极化思考｜思维模型","extreme-thinking",[127,1506],"models\u002Fextreme-thinking","lPrJkJVSckdtxy4djFIXFtwlguWqa_JuxdDjB1riQ4Y",{"id":5079,"title":5080,"body":5081,"category":110,"description":5153,"difficulty":112,"extension":113,"meta":5154,"navigation":115,"order":5155,"path":5156,"readingTime":118,"related":5157,"seo":5158,"seoDescription":5159,"seoTitle":5160,"slug":5161,"sources":5162,"stem":5163,"__hash__":5164},"models\u002Fmodels\u002Fnecessary-work.md","必要功",{"type":7,"value":5082,"toc":5143},[5083,5085,5088,5090,5092,5095,5097,5099,5102,5104,5106,5109,5111,5113,5115,5117,5119,5122,5124,5126,5136,5138,5141],[10,5084,12],{"id":12},[14,5086,5087],{},"你说要做内容网站，但没有稳定选题、写作、校对和发布节奏，愿景就只是愿景。",[14,5089,1421],{},[10,5091,22],{"id":22},[14,5093,5094],{},"目标不会因为你喜欢它就自动实现。",[14,5096,1429],{},[10,5098,31],{"id":31},[14,5100,5101],{},"登山，山顶很美，但路程和补给不能省。",[14,5103,1437],{},[10,5105,40],{"id":40},[14,5107,5108],{},"用它把愿望拆成必要条件。",[14,5110,1445],{},[10,5112,49],{"id":49},[14,5114,1450],{},[14,5116,1453],{},[10,5118,59],{"id":58},[14,5120,5121],{},"不要把必要功写成无限待办。",[14,5123,1461],{},[10,5125,68],{"id":68},[70,5127,5128,5130,5132,5134],{},[73,5129,1468],{},[73,5131,1471],{},[73,5133,1474],{},[73,5135,1477],{},[10,5137,87],{"id":87},[14,5139,5140],{},"为一个目标列出三个不做就一定失败的动作。",[14,5142,1485],{},{"title":99,"searchDepth":100,"depth":100,"links":5144},[5145,5146,5147,5148,5149,5150,5151,5152],{"id":12,"depth":100,"text":12},{"id":22,"depth":100,"text":22},{"id":31,"depth":100,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":100,"text":40},{"id":49,"depth":100,"text":49},{"id":58,"depth":100,"text":59},{"id":68,"depth":100,"text":68},{"id":87,"depth":100,"text":87},"判断一件事真正做成需要完成哪些不可省略的工作。",{},55,"\u002Fmodels\u002Fnecessary-work",[120,235],{"title":5080,"description":5153},"用费曼教学法解释必要功：判断一件事真正做成需要完成哪些不可省略的工作。","必要功｜思维模型","necessary-work",[127,1506],"models\u002Fnecessary-work","I70cUJompYY-ZO3DQpm6GMi3q0SItLGIttnigjCnonk",{"id":5166,"title":5167,"body":5168,"category":1397,"description":5240,"difficulty":782,"extension":113,"meta":5241,"navigation":115,"order":5242,"path":5243,"readingTime":344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