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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":469,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":21,"date":9,"description":471,"editor":1933,"extension":1934,"meta":1935,"navigation":1936,"order":472,"path":1937,"publishedAt":9,"seo":1938,"seoDescription":471,"seoTitle":1939,"slug":470,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":856,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":1940,"sourceStatus":1941,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":1942,"stem":1943,"summary":471,"tags":1944,"type":435,"updatedAt":1947,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"__hash__":1948,"_collection":1949},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-business-02.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":1926},"minimark",[821,826,834,837,840,843,846,849,852,870,873,878,885,894,900,905,908,913,928,933,936,942,945,948,951,961,966,969,978,981,986,989,994,1001,1009,1016,1024,1030,1054,1066,1071,1075,1078,1087,1090,1110,1124,1132,1135,1138,1143,1149,1152,1161,1164,1169,1172,1177,1188,1204,1215,1227,1240,1248,1254,1257,1262,1268,1275,1278,1281,1284,1287,1292,1298,1318,1337,1349,1358,1369,1379,1385,1396,1414,1426,1429,1434,1437,1445,1448,1451,1455,1462,1470,1482,1485,1490,1495,1498,1504,1510,1521,1541,1549,1555,1570,1578,1582,1587,1590,1595,1604,1609,1612,1619,1622,1625,1630,1633,1636,1639,1644,1646,1652,1655,1662,1665,1668,1671,1679,1684,1691,1696,1699,1702,1705,1708,1711,1714,1717,1720,1723,1728,1731,1734,1743,1749,1760,1766,1771,1774,1777,1787,1792,1801,1806,1815,1821,1827,1832,1835,1838,1845,1850,1865,1873,1879,1885,1893,1896,1901,1907,1912,1918,1921],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-什么是生意模式","第一节 什么是生意模式",[827,828,829,833],"p",{},[830,831,832],"strong",{},"段永平："," 老巴童鞋说生意模式最重要。我自己大概对这句话想了好几年了，还在继续想，但确实越来越感觉到老巴这个说法有道理。和老巴吃顿饭没白吃，这句话就已经值个100顿饭了吧（其实远远不止哈）？",[827,835,836],{},"什么是生意模式？我也说不清楚，也许大学里的教授能给个文点的定义吧。但是，我觉得我大致知道那到底是什么意思。",[827,838,839],{},"如果你还不明白什么叫生意模式的话，那就看看老巴的那几篇在几个大学的演讲。",[827,841,842],{},"还没懂？那看看喜诗糖果，看看可口可乐、看看比亚迪、看看苹果、看看航空公司、看看那些做太阳能晶片的“光伏企业”……",[827,844,845],{},"还没懂？那重头来，接着再看。10-20年之内看不懂都可以用这个办法，就是“重头来，接着再看”。",[827,847,848],{},"20年以后还是看不懂怎么办？那20年以后再说了。（2012-06-24）",[827,850,851],{},"网友：你说过巴菲特告诉你看公司首先要看生意模式，能否说一下你对“生意模式”的定义（好像你从来没详细说过），或者说重点关注生意模式的哪几方面。谢谢！",[827,853,854,857,858,862,863,869],{},[830,855,856],{},"段永平"," ：怎么会有这么多人问什么叫“生意模式”的？生意模式就是生意的模式，就是产生净",[859,860,88],"a",{"href":861},"\u002Fxianjinliu","的模式。",[830,864,865,866,868],{},"好的生意模式就是能长期产生很多净",[859,867,88],{"href":861},"的模式"," 。（2012-04-08）",[827,871,872],{},"网友B：网友都是学院派，凡事都要定义一下。",[827,874,875,877],{},[830,876,856],{}," ：凡事要知道定义没什么错，老巴也没告诉我什么叫生意模式，我也确实一下找不到特别好的词来说明，想来想去，生意模式最好的定义就是---生意模式。（2012-04-08）",[827,879,880,881,884],{},"网友：",[859,882,70],{"href":883},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","好的企业为什么会有好的投资回报，因为可持续发展吗？",[827,886,887,889,890,893],{},[830,888,856],{}," ：你需要先理解",[830,891,892],{},"商业模式的定义。简单讲商业模式好的意思就是企业能够持续赚很多钱"," 。（2019-05-05）",[827,895,896,897,899],{},"网友：请问大道“看懂生意模式”是不是可以这样理解：用自己的一套方式把它解化，理解（抓住）其本质，明白其核心竞争力（差异性），然后看懂其十年（更远）的趋势或变化。也就能看懂未来",[859,898,88],{"href":861},"了？",[827,901,902,904],{},[830,903,832],{}," 差不多吧。没想到一个简单描述的方式。（2012-06-26）",[827,906,907],{},"网友S：right business是指好的商业模式，不能等同于企业未来的获利能力。好的商业模式有可能长期获利平平，right business既非企业获利能力的必要条件，也不是充分条件。",[827,909,910,912],{},[830,911,856],{},"：好的商业模式不应该长期获利平平，但短期有可能。我认为“好的商业模式”的定义就包含未来获利能力强，不然就不是“好的商业模式”（不然那是什么意思？）。未来指的是企业的整个生命周期。",[827,914,915,916,918,919,921,922,924,925,927],{},"网友J：顺便说一下，您说的“净",[859,917,88],{"href":861},"”换作“自由",[859,920,88],{"href":861},"”可能对大多数人来说更好理解一些。自由",[859,923,88],{"href":861},"=经营",[859,926,88],{"href":861},"-资本支出。",[827,929,930,932],{},[830,931,856],{}," ：其实不明白的人你换哪个说法都是一样的。（2012-04-09）",[827,934,935],{},"【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华（2012-02-17）",[827,937,938,941],{},[830,939,940],{},"除非是经历销售量的巨幅成长，否则一家好的企业定义上应该是指那些可以产生大量现金的公司"," ，（1984）",[827,943,944],{},"【引用】博文：《巴菲特自述：我的城堡和我投资的5+12+8+2法则》（2010-05-28）",[827,946,947],{},"我怎么选股：重心是“什么”上面，而不是“何时”",[827,949,950],{},"可口可乐公司于1919年上市，那时的价格是40美元左右。一年后，股价降了50%，只有19美元。看起来那是一场灾难。瓶装问题，糖料涨价，你总能发现这样那样的原因让你觉得那不是一个合适的买入时机。一些年之后，又发生了大萧条，第二次世界大战，核武器竞赛等。总是有原因（让你不买）。",[827,952,953,954,957,958,957],{},"如果你在一开始40块钱买了一股，然后你把派发的红利进行再投资（买入可口可乐的股票），一直到现在，那股可乐股票的价值是500万。",[830,955,956],{},"这个事实压倒了一切"," 。",[830,959,960],{},"如果你看对了生意模式，你就会赚很多钱",[827,962,963,965],{},[830,964,832],{}," 我们公司的商业模式过去确实没那么好，直到做了智能手机。（2019-05-05）",[827,967,968],{},"网友：听你说过“OPPO，vivo以前生意模式不好，现在挺好”，我想问你的观点是什么？",[827,970,971,973,974,977],{},[830,972,856],{}," ：现在是互联网入口，是个",[859,975,166],{"href":976},"\u002Fpingtai","。（2019-08-01）",[827,979,980],{},"网友：“好的生意模式”的建立过程，是否也有点可遇不可求？因为有太多好产品由于没有好经营模式而消失了。",[827,982,983,985],{},[830,984,856],{}," ：特别好的生意模式非常少见。（2013-04-23）",[827,987,988],{},"网友：请教大道：什么是商业模式和企业文化？",[827,990,991,993],{},[830,992,832],{}," 商业模式简单讲就是公司赚钱的模式。好的商业模式是有护城河的，举个极端的例子就是海关（虽然这不是通常意义的商业模式）。企业文化就是企业里这帮人的使命，愿景和核心价值观的东西。（2019-3-14）",[827,995,996,997,1000],{},"网友：“好",[830,998,999],{},"生意模式","”的建立是否也有点可遇不可求？",[827,1002,1003,1005,1006,1008],{},[830,1004,832],{}," 特别好的",[830,1007,999],{},"非常少见。(2013-04-23)",[827,1010,1011,1012,1015],{},"网友：盖可保险(",[830,1013,1014],{},"GE","ICO)不就是成本优势吗？而且很长久了。",[827,1017,1018,1020,1021,1023],{},[830,1019,832],{}," 盖可和开市客都是好的",[859,1022,70],{"href":883},"，但我们这里说的是制造业哈。(2020-11-24)",[827,1025,1026,1027,1029],{},"网友：是不是能躺赢的",[859,1028,70],{"href":883},"就是好模式？",[827,1031,1032,1034,1035,1038,1039,1042,1043,1045,1046,1049,1050,1053],{},[830,1033,832],{}," 可以这么说，如果大家对躺赢的定义是一样的话。躺赢的典型其实是贵州",[830,1036,1037],{},"茅台","和",[830,1040,1041],{},"喜诗糖果","。不过好的",[859,1044,70],{"href":883},"不限于此，比如",[830,1047,1048],{},"苹果","、",[830,1051,1052],{},"谷歌","…(2022-01-04)",[827,1055,1056,1057,1049,1059,1061,1062,1065],{},"网友：您同时作为投资人（看",[830,1058,1048],{},[830,1060,1037],{},"）和企业家（做",[830,1063,1064],{},"步步高","），在评估一个“好生意”时，两者视角最大的差异是什么？ 您作为企业家的经历，让您在投资中看到了哪些别人看不到的东西？",[827,1067,1068,1070],{},[830,1069,832],{}," 这类问题是很奇怪的，别人是谁？“好生意”就是好生意，它是由生意本身决定的，和视角无关。不过，对于不懂生意的人来说，我也不知道他们的视角。（2025-10-19）",[822,1072,1074],{"id":1073},"第二节-好模式的判断标准","第二节 好模式的判断标准",[827,1076,1077],{},"网友：大道您好！好的生意模式有哪些方面的特征呢？",[827,1079,1080,1086],{},[830,1081,1082,1083,1085],{},"段永平：好的商业模式的很简单，就是利润和净",[859,1084,88],{"href":861},"一直都是杠杠的，而且竞争对手哪怕很长的时间里也很难抢。你可以自己想想谁的生意是很难抢的？然后再想想为什么？"," （2020-10-11）",[827,1088,1089],{},"网友：段总，单纯从生意模式上讲，海天味业，片仔癀，农夫山泉这三家哪家的生意模式更强呢？有点想不清楚这个问题。",[827,1091,1092,1094,1095,1109],{},[830,1093,832],{}," 我也不了解这三家公司。一般来说，",[830,1096,1097,1098,1101,1102,1105,1106,1108],{},"商业模式经常要看的东西不外是",[859,1099,74],{"href":1100},"\u002Fhuchenghe","是否长期坚固（产品的",[859,1103,146],{"href":1104},"\u002Fchayihua","的持续性，包括企业文化），长期的毛利率是否合理（产品的可替代性），长期的净",[859,1107,88],{"href":861},"（长期而言其实就是净利润）是否满意…"," 。（2020-11-06）",[827,1111,1112,1113,1049,1115,1049,1117,1120,1121,1123],{},"网友：您持有的",[830,1114,1048],{},[830,1116,1037],{},[830,1118,1119],{},"腾讯","都是净利润率特别高的公司，高净利率的公司是否就比低净利率的公司",[859,1122,70],{"href":883},"好？",[827,1125,1126,1128,1129],{},[830,1127,832],{}," ",[830,1130,1131],{},"好像我喜欢的公司都有高毛利的特征，但没归纳过。",[827,1133,1134],{},"高毛利肯定不是充分条件，比如餐饮业都是高毛利，但投资价值不高。(2019-03-19)",[827,1136,1137],{},"网友：大道，我从2014年看你的网易博客，一路跟你到雪球，收获很多。买股票就是买企业，我懂。但怎么辨别好企业似懂非懂，巴菲特说过，喜诗是好生意，飞行安全公司是一般生意，航空公司是糟糕的生意。我理解的是资本支出大的行业不容易出现好企业。不知道对不对，请大道指点一下。",[827,1139,1140,1142],{},[830,1141,832],{}," “资本支出大的行业不容易出现好企业”，我同意这个观点。（2019-03-16）",[827,1144,1145,1146,1148],{},"网友：（DeepSeek总结什么是大道眼里好的",[859,1147,70],{"href":883},"）",[827,1150,1151],{},"deepseek总结什么是段总眼里好的商业模式：\n段永平先生非常看重商业模式，他将其视为投资中最重要的考量因素。他认为，好的商业模式本质上是“能够长期赚大钱且竞争对手难以复制的生意”。\n为了让你快速把握段永平眼中好商业模式的核心标准，我整理了下表：\n核心标准 段永平的关键论述\n🔄 长期盈利能力 能长期持续获得丰厚利润，且具有稳定的净现金流。他常形容为“利润和净现金流一直都是杠杠的”。\n🛡️ 强大的护城河 具备难以复制的竞争优势，通常表现为产品或服务的独特差异化。 “没有差异化产品的商业模式基本不是好的商业模式”。\n⏳ 长久生存周期 能在10年、20年甚至更长时间内持续满足需求，且需求不会因外部冲击而消失。\n💡 轻资产与高效率 不过度依赖重资产投入，资本开支低，且能高效利用资源。他倾向于避开“辛苦的生意”。\n🌟 利润之上的追求 超越单纯利润导向，关注用户需求和社会价值。这能让企业更不容易受到短期诱惑而偏离方向。\n🔍 深入理解商业模式\n除了以上核心标准，段永平还对商业模式的几个关键方面有过精辟的阐述：\n· 商业模式的定义：在他看来，商业模式就是公司赚钱的模式。他特别强调，定性分析比定量分析更重要，一旦理解了商业模式，投资就会变得非常有意思。\n· 护城河与差异化：他明确指出，“能长期维持的差异化”才是真正的护城河。这种差异化指的是产品能满足用户的、而别人满足不了的需求。因此，他会尽量避开产品很难长期做出差异化的公司，比如航空公司和太阳能组件公司。\n· 与企业文化的关系：段永平将商业模式和企业文化视为好公司最重要的两个条件。他曾用一个生动的比喻说明两者的关系：商业模式像马，企业文化像骑师。好的骑师（企业文化）虽然重要，但如果马（商业模式）本身很差，同样难以取得好成绩。\n💡 如何应用这些理念\n· 学会筛选与放弃：段永平提到，商业模式可以作为一个强大的过滤器，帮他省下大量时间。他用刮彩票形象地比喻：“看到商业模式不好，就像刮奖刮到一个‘谢’字，还要继续往下刮吗？” 这意味着，一旦发现商业模式不好，就应该果断放弃，不必再浪费精力深究。\n· 关注长期现金流：他看重的是公司在整个生命周期内产生自由现金流的能力。买股票就是买公司，就是买其未来现金流折现。\n· 珍视好的商业模式：段永平认为，真正特别好的生意模式非常少见。一个具备强大产品差异化的生意，遇到了要好好珍惜，并且要和巴菲特学到的一样——遇到好公司后要“一直拿着”。\n希望这份总结能帮助你更好地理解段永平的投资智慧。如果你对其中“企业文化”或“如何构建能力圈”等具体话题感兴趣，我很乐意为你提供进一步的介绍。",[827,1153,1154,1155,1157,1158,1160],{},"大道：DeepSeek总结得很好，不过对于“轻资产与高效率不过度依赖重资产投入，资本开支低，且能高效利用资源。他倾向于避开‘辛苦的生意’”，大道倾向于避开苦生意是对的，但重资产和好生意并不是绝对对立的，TSMC就是个好的例子。",[859,1156,70],{"href":883},"最重要的还是看未来的",[859,1159,88],{"href":861},"。（2025-10-29）",[827,1162,1163],{},"网友：你对恒生电子怎么看？",[827,1165,1166,1168],{},[830,1167,832],{}," 对不起，不知道这家公司。不过，一般来讲，大部分“电子公司”可能都不值得投资，因为生意模式一般都不会太好。（2019-09-09）",[827,1170,1171],{},"网友：我想请问垄断的生意，如自来水公司等，算不算好的生意模式呢？如果算，好像没发现有伟大的自来水公司？是不是垄断容易产生不思进取、管理混乱等因素？",[827,1173,1174,1176],{},[830,1175,856],{}," ：自来水公司的“垄断”是在很多限制条件下的垄断，多有关民生，属于公共事业，不被允许赚大钱。（2015-04-11）",[827,1178,880,1179,1049,1181,1184,1185,1187],{},[859,1180,70],{"href":883},[859,1182,135],{"href":1183},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","、未来",[859,1186,88],{"href":861},"三条铁律，感觉任意一项都能卡掉大部分公司。",[827,1189,1190,1191,1193,1194,1196,1197,1199,1200,1203],{},"尤其",[859,1192,135],{"href":1183},"这一条最重要，",[859,1195,135],{"href":1183},"是地基，只要",[859,1198,135],{"href":1183},"没有足够简单",[859,1201,12],{"href":1202},"\u002Fbenfen","，就不可能成为伟大的公司。",[827,1205,1206,1208,1209,1211,1212,1214],{},[859,1207,135],{"href":1183},"足够强大以后，才有可能成就好的",[859,1210,70],{"href":883},"和未来",[859,1213,88],{"href":861},"，这样理解对吗？",[827,1216,1217,1218,1220,1221,1223,1224,1226],{},"大道：",[859,1219,70],{"href":883},"里面包括未来",[859,1222,88],{"href":861},"了，不然好的",[859,1225,70],{"href":883},"是什么意思？（2026-1-05）",[827,1228,1229,1230,1232,1233,1235,1236,1239],{},"好的",[859,1231,70],{"href":883},"很简单，就是利润和净",[859,1234,88],{"href":861},"一直都是杠杠的，而且竞争对手哪怕用很长的时间也很难抢。",[830,1237,1238],{},"你可以自己想想：谁的生意是很难抢的？然后再想想为什么？","(2020-10-11)",[827,1241,1229,1242,1244,1245,1247],{},[859,1243,70],{"href":883},"就是能够长期获得很好利润的",[859,1246,70],{"href":883},"，一般都是通过提供很好的产品或服务而来的。(2020-12-03)",[827,1249,1250,1251,1253],{},"网友：有一个关于Good business（好的生意）的问题想请教，比如房地产行业，房地产行业的企业普遍负债率高，不是很让人喜欢，不算是好的生意模式，可是房地产行业应该还是一个有",[859,1252,146],{"href":1104},"的行业，比如段总买过的万科，应该算是一个房地产行业的好企业，从是否有好的生意模式的角度来看，似乎就把万科这样的企业排除掉了，万科这样一个处在房地产行业的企业能不能拥有一个好的生意模式，怎样来判断一个企业是否有好的生意模式？",[827,1255,1256],{},"对于判断是否是好的生意模式有没有充要条件？",[827,1258,1259,1261],{},[830,1260,832],{}," 负债率高并不一定就是商业模式不好吧？银行的负债率就很高啊，但有的银行就不错。房地产行业这个说法太泛了，就像说电子消费品这个行业生意模式好不好一样，没办法得出结论的。电子消费品行业竞争非常激烈，但苹果就做出了一个非常好的商业模式，而其他的企业就非常不容易。投资很难找到充要条件的，不然就有公式可用了？",[827,1263,1264,1267],{},[830,1265,1266],{},"好的商业模式，好的企业文化是我喜欢的投资目标，如果再有好的价钱就完美了。"," 市场有时候可以非常疯狂（很贵或很便宜），有机会（很便宜）时，对商业模式不是那么好的公司的投资在一定时期内是有可能有不错的回报的。",[827,1269,1270,1271,1274],{},"但是，",[830,1272,1273],{},"长期而言（10年20年或以上）坚持只投好的商业模式，好的企业文化的公司大概率上是会有比较好的回报的，而且这种投资方法让人很愉快，不需要整天瞎操心。简言之，投资人每次做投资决定时如果想的是10年20年的事情，最后的结果很难不好，不然就难说了。要找到自己能想清楚10年20年的公司是非常不容易的，一生有那么10个8个机会就非常非常好了。","（2015-04-11）",[827,1276,1277],{},"网友：上次大道问好的生意模式，我说一个：晨光文具。",[827,1279,1280],{},"行业：1）中小学生对文具的要求越来越高，品种越来越多。学生对价格不敏感，家长愿意在学生文具上花钱。购买文具的每一次花销并不大，家长和学生容易做出购买决定。但是，使用和损坏的消耗却很快。2）国内的品牌商加强研发，从中档价格切入，有利于替代进口品牌。3）基本刚需，基本不受宏观经济低迷的影响。",[827,1282,1283],{},"公司：1）学校周边7万家终端店，而且从事的是低值易耗品，产品的消费量及其背后的品牌广告价值都极其可观。2）其推出“快速消费品大流通模式+直销模式”渠道分销模式，各层级之间形成了一种紧密的利益关系，是一个利益共同体。这样，加盟商不容易转投竞争对手。有类似于肯德基的模式。3）占据了80%的学校周边市场，只要它保证文具品质和创新性，其品牌将在学生心中生根。",[827,1285,1286],{},"一个不好的地方，就是产品的品种太多（这是由这个行业特性决定的），管理上会比较麻烦。晨光好的企业文化，弥补了产品品种多、品牌多的弊端。",[827,1288,1289,1291],{},[830,1290,832],{}," 这种生意，能活下来就不错了，和苹果茅台这种生意模式不能相提并论的。（2019-05-29）",[827,1293,1294,1295,1297],{},"网友：如何才能看懂",[859,1296,70],{"href":883},"呢？",[827,1299,1300,1302,1303,1305,1306,1308,1309,1311,1312,1314,1315,1317],{},[830,1301,832],{}," 一般来说，",[859,1304,70],{"href":883},"经常要看的东西不外是",[859,1307,74],{"href":1100},"是否长期坚固(产品",[859,1310,146],{"href":1104},"的持续性，",[859,1313,135],{"href":1183},")，长期的毛利率是否合理(产品的可替代性)，长期的净",[859,1316,88],{"href":861},"(长期而言其实就是净利润)是否让人满意…(2020-11-06)",[827,1319,880,1320,1322,1323,1325,1326,1328,1329,1331,1332,1038,1334,1336],{},[830,1321,999],{},"一般、",[859,1324,135],{"href":1183},"好的企业能不能投？比如早期的",[830,1327,1064],{},"，记得大道说过一个供应商没把货款转成股份，头发后来都掉光了。《基业长青》(Built To Last)中举例的伟大企业的",[830,1330,999],{},"，相对",[830,1333,1037],{},[830,1335,1048],{},"，似乎看起来也一般。",[827,1338,1339,1341,1342,1345,1346,1348],{},[830,1340,832],{}," 这是个",[859,1343,115],{"href":1344},"\u002Fjihuichengben","问题，你总是挑你自己能看懂的公司里面",[859,1347,70],{"href":883},"最好的投。",[827,1350,1351,1352,1354,1355,1357],{},"如果你觉得",[859,1353,70],{"href":883},"一般的潜台词就是你知道有更好的，那你为什么要放着更好的不投而去投一般的呢？从10年20年的角度看，投",[859,1356,70],{"href":883},"好的公司总是舒服的。(2021-10-24)",[827,1359,880,1360,1362,1363,1365,1366,1368],{},[859,1361,70],{"href":883},"好坏的比较是指同行业不同公司(比如",[830,1364,1037],{},"和五粮液)之间的比较，还是不同行业随便两家公司(比如",[830,1367,1037],{},"和分众)都可以比较？",[827,1370,1371,1128,1373],{},[830,1372,832],{},[830,1374,1375,1376,1378],{},"比较的是净",[859,1377,88],{"href":861},"，和行业无关。(2020-10-28)",[827,1380,1381,1382,1384],{},"网友：用行业状元衡量好的",[859,1383,70],{"href":883},"是否可行？",[827,1386,1387,1389,1390,1392,1393,1395],{},[830,1388,832],{}," 这个世界可能有几十几百个甚至更多的行业和行业状元，但",[859,1391,70],{"href":883},"好的凤毛麟角。用找行业状元的办法就会很容易去投那些",[859,1394,70],{"href":883},"不好的行业状元，那些状元很可能只是昙花一现的辉煌而已。(2023-07-01)",[827,1397,1398,1399,1401,1402,1404,1405,1407,1408,1410,1411,1413],{},"碰上一个好的",[859,1400,70],{"href":883},"感觉是要有非常好的运气的，但运气背后有很厚的",[859,1403,135],{"href":1183},"背景。搜索最后变成",[830,1406,1052],{},"的好",[859,1409,70],{"href":883},"，但肯定不能简单地说搜索是个好的",[859,1412,70],{"href":883},"。",[827,1415,1416,1417,1419,1420,1422,1423,1425],{},"手机在",[830,1418,1048],{},"手里就是个极好的",[859,1421,70],{"href":883},"，在我们手里也是，但很多做手机的公司都倒下了或者根本做不起来。酒也是个典型的例子，",[830,1424,1037],{},"厉害不等于酒都厉害。说到最后，你觉得到底啥重要？(2019-05-30)",[827,1427,1428],{},"网友：四大国有银行10年后还会存在，所以银行是一门好生意吗？",[827,1430,1431,1433],{},[830,1432,832],{}," 日本甚至有存在了上千年的生意，你可能完全没听说过，但你可以肯定那不是什么好生意。生存时间长和是不是好生意没有必然联系。(2024-03-14)",[827,1435,1436],{},"网友：现在游戏还是不是个好生意，好赛道？",[827,1438,1439,1441,1442,1444],{},[830,1440,832],{}," 对",[830,1443,1119],{},"肯定是啊，对你就不知道了。（2025-10-19）",[827,1446,1447],{},"网友：大道说赚钱越多的公司商业模式越好，那喜诗糖果算商业模式好的公司吗？喜诗糖果好像没有一些光伏企业赚得多？还是说赚得多只是商业模式好的条件之一？差异化和护城河也是？",[827,1449,1450],{},"大道：商业模式和投入产出比有关。很好奇哪些家光伏企业在过去或者未来20年能比这个卖糖果的公司赚得多。（2026-09-09）",[822,1452,1454],{"id":1453},"第三节-商业模式与投资确定性","第三节 商业模式与投资确定性",[827,1456,1457,1458,1461],{},"网友：段大哥很多次谈到生意模式的重要性。那么生意模式和投资的确定性是怎么样一个关系呢？大哥怎么理解",[859,1459,58],{"href":1460},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","中有风险，风险投资中有价值？价值投资和风险投资都要考量生意模式，那么价值投资和风险投资的本质区别是什么？投资的确定性是什么？",[827,1463,1464,1466,1467],{},[830,1465,856],{}," ：1. ",[830,1468,1469],{},"生意模式越好，投资的确定性越高或者叫风险越低；",[1471,1472,1473,1477,1479],"ol",{"start":21},[1474,1475,1476],"li",{},"见第一条；",[1474,1478,1476],{},[1474,1480,1481],{},"见第一条。（2013-04-03）",[827,1483,1484],{},"网友：请教一下段哥，于小资金的投资者而言，对生意模式的挑选是不是可以不那么严苛？",[827,1486,1487,1489],{},[830,1488,832],{}," 你的想法其实也是维持小资金的比较有效的办法。（2017-08-27）",[827,1491,1492,1494],{},[830,1493,832],{}," 呵呵，国内的就不举了，不太好。记得很多年以前，有一次看资料，发现WMT的纯利大概只有5%左右，而Kmart的成本比Wmart大约高5%。我一想，这Kmart早晚要完蛋，只是不知道多久而已。结果3年后Kmart就倒了。有人说我是乌鸦嘴，说谁倒谁最后就倒了。其实，没那么邪乎，但确实我说要出大麻烦的公司好像大多数最后都出了。",[827,1496,1497],{},"投资里很重要的一点就是要避免大麻烦。巴菲特讲的不想拿10年的企业你就不应该投。（2010-05-17）",[827,1499,1500,1501,1503],{},"没把",[859,1502,70],{"href":883},"放在第一位那就基本上还不太懂生意，投资会蛮煎熬的。(2023-05-11)",[827,1505,1506,1507,1509],{},"看到",[859,1508,70],{"href":883},"不好，就像刮奖刮到一个谢字，还要继续往下刮吗？(2021-10-19)",[827,1511,880,1512,1515,1516,1038,1518,1520],{},[830,1513,1514],{},"巴菲特","说喜欢不变的公司，看懂变化能赚大钱。请问",[830,1517,1048],{},[830,1519,1037],{},"属于哪种？",[827,1522,1523,1525,1526,1528,1529,1531,1532,1534,1535,1537,1538,1540],{},[830,1524,832],{}," 这里的变化应该指的是产品，显然",[830,1527,1048],{},"属于要变的公司，",[830,1530,1037],{},"属于不变的公司。我喜欢",[830,1533,1048],{},"，也喜欢",[830,1536,1037],{},"，因为他们的",[830,1539,999],{},"都很好。(2019-07-24)",[827,1542,1038,1543,1545,1546,1548],{},[830,1544,1514],{},"聊一聊，给了我非常大的帮助，至少给我带来了几千倍于午饭的价值。以前我对",[859,1547,70],{"href":883},"是没有那么重视的，只是众多考虑之一。",[827,1550,1551,1554],{},[830,1552,1553],{},"认识巴菲特以后，我买的苹果、茅台，包括腾讯，都有巴菲特的影响在里面，尤其是“一直拿着”这点，和巴菲特绝对密不可分。另外，从那以后，市场对我的影响逐年下降到几乎没有。如果能够重来一次的话，那我肯定会更早地去赢取那个机会。","(2020-10-15)",[827,1556,1557,1558,1560,1561,1563,1564,1566,1567,1569],{},"网友：好的",[859,1559,135],{"href":1183},"只能让",[830,1562,999],{},"出现问题的企业减缓下降的速度而不能逆转下降的趋势，比如书店、胶卷生产商、报纸、汽车、航空公司、百货公司。持续的竞争优势的基础是好的",[830,1565,999],{},"。另外，连续几年营收和利润高速增长并不意味着就拥有好的",[830,1568,999],{},"，比如苏宁和携程，我曾经以为它们很厉害，而且能继续厉害下去。",[827,1571,1572,1574,1575,1577],{},[830,1573,832],{}," 这个理解很好，说明",[830,1576,999],{},"很重要。(2013-03-31)",[822,1579,1581],{"id":1580},"第四节-苦生意与烂模式的特征","第四节 苦生意与烂模式的特征",[827,1583,1584,1586],{},[830,1585,832],{}," 不好的生意模式也是有机会在一段时间里赚钱的，但赚起来累，效率差，持久性不好。需要用很多人（相对营业额和利润而言）是不好的模式的一个特征。另外，短期内增加很多人往往也是很危险的（比如一年内在一万多人的基础上增加两万多人），当然有些公司可能会是例外，虽然我还没见过例外。（2011-12-29）",[827,1588,1589],{},"网友：据了解，2010年京东商城营业额预计108亿元，现已完成超过80亿元。分析称开放平台可为其带来较高毛利率，为上市做准备。",[827,1591,1592,1594],{},[830,1593,832],{}," 不赚钱的生意多少营业额都是没用的。（2010-09-16）",[827,1596,1597,1598,1600,1601,1603],{},"据市场调研公司Canalys发布的报告显示，惠普公司今年第一季度的PC出货量反超",[830,1599,1048],{},"，重新夺回市场霸主的地位。Canalys的统计是将平板电脑计入了PC的出货量，而iPad去年第四季度的出货量达到创纪录的1500万台，使得",[830,1602,1048],{},"当季超越惠普，成为……",[827,1605,1606,1608],{},[830,1607,856],{}," ：呵呵，当个不那么赚钱的霸主味道不太好哦。（2012-05-10）",[827,1610,1611],{},"网友：请教段总生产电子产品零配件的公司（如塑胶、五金、电子零件）如何进行价值分析：该类公司都有几个特点：",[827,1613,1614,1615,1618],{},"一是有大量的应收款，目前国内电子行业普通都是三个月（90天）的结款周期（当然少数独家供应，不能替代的",[859,1616,141],{"href":1617},"\u002Fpinpai","零件除外）。客户是类似NOKIA（诺基亚），三星、LG及国内品牌等终端品牌客户。电子行业是充分竞争的行业，一旦客户中倒下一个，都会造成大量的款项无法收回。想想几年前夏新、波导的倒下，其大量的供应商一定很受伤。",[827,1620,1621],{},"二是公司业绩不稳定，易怱上怱下。当傍上像NOKIA、APPLE这样的超级大客户，业绩会快速飙涨。一旦合作出现问题，业绩也会一落千丈。当然如能超级大客户前介入，则是巨大的机会。",[827,1623,1624],{},"三是进入门槛比较低。基本很少有技术壁垒。",[827,1626,1627,1629],{},[830,1628,856],{}," ：呵呵，你要是想忙一天的话，就请朋友来家里吃饭。",[827,1631,1632],{},"你要是想忙一年的话，就装修你的房子。",[827,1634,1635],{},"你要是想忙一辈子的话，就多买几个这样的企业。（2011-01-05）",[827,1637,1638],{},"网友：您现在是否依然坚持这个观点？您怎么看拼多多依然没有盈利这个问题？",[827,1640,1641,1643],{},[830,1642,832],{}," “不赚钱的生意多少营业额都是没用的。”这个观点有啥问题吗？如果你打算买下整个公司你就会明白的。当然，这里指的是公司的整个生命周期，和某个公司没有关系。比如，如果拼多多最后无法盈利，那这个公司的价值最后就会是零。(2020-10-17)",[827,1645,935],{},[827,1647,1648,1649],{},"在一个没有管制的商品标准化产业，一家公司不是降低成本增加竞争力，就是被迫倒闭关门。（1994）\n",[830,1650,1651],{},"零售业的经营相当不易，在我个人的投资生涯中，我看过许多零售业曾经拥有极高的成长率与股东权益报酬率，但是到最后，突然间表现急速下滑，很多甚至被迫以倒闭关门收场。",[827,1653,1654],{},"比起一般制造业或服务业，这种剎那间的永恒在零售业屡见不鲜，部分原因是这些零售业者必须时时保持聪明警戒，因为你的竞争对手随时准备复制你的做法，然后超越你，同时消费者绝对不会吝于给予新加入业者尝试的机会。零售业一旦业绩下滑，注定就会失败。",[827,1656,1657,1658,1661],{},"相对于这种必须时时保持警戒的产业，还有一种我称之为只要聪明一时的产业，举个例子来说，如果你在很早以前就懂得睿智地买下一家地方电视台，你甚至可以把它交给懒惰又差劲的亲人来经营，而这项事业却仍然可以好好地经营个几十年，当然若是你懂得将Tom Murphy（汤姆·墨菲）摆在正确的位置之上，你所获得的将会更惊人，",[830,1659,1660],{},"但是对零售业来说，要是用人不当的话，就等于买了一张准备倒闭关门的门票。","（1995）",[827,1663,1664],{},"网友：当一个不会被淘汰的行业，在产能过剩时期，要经历一场异常惨烈的淘汰赛，只有把那些本不该从事该行业的弱者淘汰出局！行业才能恢复正常。以大起大落的航运为例：当一艘日成本为2万美元的大船，在船舶紧缺时代，日租能达到23万美元，会吸引大量投资者投资船舶，造成船舶过剩！当日租金跌到0.2万美金的时候，船舶每日都处于严重亏损状态。",[827,1666,1667],{},"弱者无力支撑，就会破产倒闭或贱卖船舶，因为船舶维护成本很高，很多还能使用的船舶也会被拆解！当旧船被拆解到一定数量后，就会逐步平衡或紧缺，进入下一轮牛市（因为造大船需要2年的时间，一旦船舶紧缺，两年内很难填补缺口，就会进入牛市！",[827,1669,1670],{},"）无论如何，行业里都会有一部分实力雄厚，早早做好准备的船东不仅活下来，还在熊市里低价买入大量价廉物美的资产，成为下一轮牛市的赢家，重点是找到这种公司。",[827,1672,1673,1675,1676,1678],{},[830,1674,832],{}," 很烂的生意模式。花了很长时间，守着一个生意模式很烂的公司，",[859,1677,115],{"href":1344},"很高，心情也不好吧？花掉的时间也是机会成本。我也有过两个小时赚20多倍的记录，但不知道如何才能重复（200块到5000块）。（2015-09-09）",[827,1680,1681,1683],{},[830,1682,832],{}," 老巴的intel就卖了？买通用汽车有点费解，生意模式可不太好啊，感觉像个雪茄烟蒂。不过通用汽车的财务数据倒是不错。",[827,1685,1686,1687,1690],{},"网友：（提问",[830,1688,1689],{},"方三文","）方总你好，你觉得快递行业是好生意吗？",[827,1692,1693,1695],{},[830,1694,1689],{},"：可能对王卫来说，是好生意。对我来说，是很不好的生意，送一个快递公司给我经营，我也不敢接啊，没有那个能力把它经营好。",[827,1697,1698],{},"大道：我也觉得快递是个苦生意，同质化程度高。不过苦生意也是生意，好过没生意哈。（2025-10-24）",[827,1700,1701],{},"网友：段哥，现在的物流行业怎么看？",[827,1703,1704],{},"大道：物流行业应该同质化程度很高，是个苦生意。（2025-11-12）",[827,1706,1707],{},"网友：段哥，想问你外卖是好生意吗？",[827,1709,1710],{},"大道：直觉很卷，但我完全不懂。我们要感谢他们给人们提供的方便哈。（2025-11-12）",[827,1712,1713],{},"网友：来雪球就为了关注大道，股票投资较少，只买了自己看得懂的快递、商超和银行，又基本属于苦生意，挺尴尬的，哈哈。",[827,1715,1716],{},"大道：看懂了是苦生意应该避开啊？（2025-11-25）",[827,1718,1719],{},"网友：我说的这家公司是一家船舶（大型船舶）出租公司。在整个行业陷入泥潭时，她却与大多同行反其道而行，在过去高峰期储备现金，称现在船价低迷时，适度买入优质低价的船舶。除非出现颠覆现代的造船技术或不可预知的灾难，否则行业一旦复苏，公司的收益增长是可以确定的！公司这两年的业绩肯定下滑是从公司和客户签订的出租合同上看到租金是在下调的，确定性非常高。",[827,1721,1722],{},"纠结的地方就是：公司的股价已经是净资产的5折了，而且公司仍然在行业低谷期稳步低成本发展，但公司今明两年的业绩肯定下滑。",[827,1724,1725,1727],{},[830,1726,832],{}," 建议你用更长的时间看。感觉你在等别人把价格抬起来以后你再买，对不？不过，我对在个行业不了解，直觉觉得这个行业的生意模式不是我喜欢的那种，要借很多钱（意味着风险大），而且产品没差异化（意味着很难有长期的好利润）。（2012-06-03）",[827,1729,1730],{},"网友：去年开始一直在思考苹果、三星的生意，说下个人的不成熟的观点，三星的优势，三星在过去10年，在中国手机市场一直排名靠前。三星的研发、学习能力，芯片设计、显示屏技术等。三星在智能机上给我的感觉是迟到者，但是追赶速度极快。不知道是诺基亚、摩托罗拉等弱了点，还是三星强了点（我很疑惑的一点之一）？劣势：中高低端全线作战，利润率低，购物体验不好。",[827,1732,1733],{},"更像一个卖硬件的，一次性收入。安卓机竞争者越来越多。负债率比较高、固定投资比较大。",[827,1735,1736,1738,1739,1742],{},[830,1737,856],{}," ：三星的生意模式其实不太好，属于疲于奔命的那种，不然不会要求员工6点半上班哈（也许是谣传）。",[830,1740,1741],{},"三星的问题在于其实没有产品追求，是生意导向的公司，焦点太发散，时间长了大概率会出问题。"," 不过韩国企业非常努力，会把危机延长到比较大才出来，这点和日本企业比较像。",[827,1744,1745,1746,1748],{},"网友：我在宠物食品行业，产品不像VCD，能在短期内看到质量差异，所以该行业虚标非常严重，不虚标又容易被消费者忽视，企业也因此坚持不下去，可虚标又违反诚信和",[859,1747,12],{"href":1202},"的价值观。请您指点一下。",[827,1750,1751,1753,1754,1756,1757,1759],{},[830,1752,832],{}," 你的问题简单讲就是一个很烂的",[859,1755,70],{"href":883},"赚的钱如何能像一个好的",[859,1758,70],{"href":883},"一样多吗？（2025-06-03）",[827,1761,1762,1763,1765],{},"网友：运输行业虽然苦，但是大概率可以永续存在，物流运输业的",[859,1764,70],{"href":883},"建立在可靠稳定的需求上。",[827,1767,1768,1770],{},[830,1769,832],{}," 这话说的！餐饮行业肯定是永远存在的，但大部分餐厅大概率干不了几年就换人了。(2024-08-20)",[827,1772,1773],{},"餐饮行业确实难的，起点低，管理复杂，难以保持产品的一致性……(2020-10-10)",[827,1775,1776],{},"餐饮几乎都是苦生意，高标准化的可能还不错，比如麦当劳啥的。(2024-09-02)",[827,1778,1779,1780,1783,1784,1786],{},"网友：如果自己要做生意，在",[859,1781,33],{"href":1782},"\u002Fnengliquan","以内选择项目是不是也按照这个方法去考虑？选择产品利润大、市场比较大、长期有稳定",[859,1785,74],{"href":1100},"的生意项目呢？",[827,1788,1789,1791],{},[830,1790,832],{}," 这个思路是对的，是经营企业的方向。但是，这种企业的门槛一般巨高，相当不容易。(2020-10-13)",[827,1793,1794,1795,1797,1798,1800],{},"比较苦的生意的特点往往是进入门槛比较低，产品",[859,1796,146],{"href":1104},"小，经常需要靠产品价格竞争。比较一下",[830,1799,1037],{},"就明白了。(2020-12-07)",[827,1802,1803],{},[830,1804,1805],{},"产品同质化程度越高，苦生意的概率越大。(2023-01-19)",[827,1807,1808,1809,1811,1812,1814],{},"话说回来，大部分生意其实都是苦生意(赚钱不容易)。苦生意大致可以分为：很苦，非常苦，相当苦以及苦苦挣扎等(这里排名不分先后，纯属玩笑)。正因为大部分生意都属于苦生意，所以好的",[859,1810,70],{"href":883},"的生意才非常难得，需要好好珍惜。",[859,1813,135],{"href":1183},"强大的苦生意其实也是可以做得蛮不错的。(2024-08-23)",[827,1816,1817,1818,1820],{},"一般而言，产品",[859,1819,146],{"href":1104},"比较小的生意都有可能是苦生意。苦生意也是生意，做好了小日子也能过得去的，就像小区的那些小杂货店一样。(2024-10-21)",[827,1822,1823,1824,1826],{},"网友：有些公司因所在行业的特性决定了项目投资比较大，如化工类。由于资金大、技术要求高，导致一般的企业难以进入，可以认为这是企业的",[859,1825,74],{"href":1100},"。这类重资产公司，您会考虑投资吗？",[827,1828,1829,1831],{},[830,1830,832],{}," 一般不会。(2019-05-31)",[827,1833,1834],{},"网友：我想问一下关于好的商业模式的问题。如果有一个公司，其行业特性决定了其项目投资比较大，如化工类，由于公司管理好，净资产收益率也比较高（大概能达到30%左右）。公司企业文化比较好，很注重在研发方面的投入。技术力量雄厚，管理也很好。其主打产品可以做到把成本控制在全行业最低，在包括国际大公司在内全行业亏损的情况下他们还可以有微利。",[827,1836,1837],{},"公司号称别人亏本我们微利，别人微利我们赚大钱。由于技术和管理水平比较高，投资同样一个项目可以比别的公司少花很多钱。由于其投资的项目都是资金大技术要求高，导致一般的企业难以进入，可以认为这是企业的护城河。公司每上一个新项目投资都会比较大，新项目的投资主要是公司利润和银行贷款。",[827,1839,1840,1841,1844],{},"我记得你说过不喜欢有",[859,1842,64],{"href":1843},"\u002Ffuzhai","的公司，那么这样的重资产类公司，你认为是不是好的生意模式呢？你会考虑投资这样的公司吗？",[827,1846,1847,1849],{},[830,1848,832],{}," 一般不会。（2019-05-31）",[827,1851,1852,1853,1855,1856,1858,1859,1861,1862,1864],{},"网友：过了两年回头看，Zoom的",[830,1854,999],{},"确实没什么",[859,1857,74],{"href":1100},"，长期看产品很难有",[859,1860,146],{"href":1104},"，感觉是个越来越难的生意。和顺丰的",[830,1863,999],{},"比起来，Zoom未来似乎更难一些。",[827,1866,1867,1869,1870,1872],{},[830,1868,832],{}," 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