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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":560,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":16,"date":9,"description":562,"editor":3067,"extension":3068,"meta":3069,"navigation":3070,"order":563,"path":3071,"publishedAt":9,"seo":3072,"seoDescription":562,"seoTitle":3073,"slug":561,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":1715,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":3074,"sourceStatus":3075,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":3076,"stem":3077,"summary":562,"tags":3078,"type":435,"updatedAt":3081,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"__hash__":3082,"_collection":3083},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-apple-01.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":3059},"minimark",[821,826,834,837,844,862,880,896,906,915,925,931,937,940,943,949,952,957,960,963,975,990,1003,1012,1024,1030,1033,1053,1056,1066,1077,1086,1089,1092,1095,1098,1101,1104,1108,1114,1120,1129,1144,1162,1171,1182,1185,1190,1193,1198,1203,1206,1211,1214,1219,1222,1225,1233,1236,1239,1242,1248,1251,1256,1262,1267,1272,1277,1282,1287,1292,1301,1312,1315,1326,1335,1343,1350,1355,1358,1361,1364,1367,1370,1373,1379,1387,1395,1400,1403,1408,1411,1414,1417,1422,1427,1430,1433,1436,1439,1442,1445,1450,1453,1456,1461,1474,1483,1490,1493,1496,1499,1502,1505,1508,1511,1514,1517,1520,1523,1526,1531,1539,1546,1552,1557,1560,1563,1566,1572,1575,1582,1585,1591,1594,1600,1603,1608,1611,1614,1617,1620,1623,1628,1632,1637,1640,1643,1646,1651,1657,1660,1665,1668,1673,1678,1681,1684,1689,1692,1695,1700,1703,1708,1711,1717,1720,1735,1740,1752,1763,1766,1771,1777,1787,1790,1795,1798,1801,1806,1809,1814,1820,1835,1838,1843,1849,1854,1860,1865,1878,1881,1886,1889,1892,1895,1898,1901,1904,1907,1910,1913,1916,1921,1924,1927,1930,1933,1936,1939,1942,1945,1948,1951,1962,1967,1976,1988,2000,2014,2022,2025,2028,2031,2034,2037,2040,2043,2046,2052,2061,2064,2069,2072,2081,2084,2090,2096,2102,2107,2113,2121,2127,2130,2135,2141,2144,2149,2152,2155,2159,2162,2182,2188,2197,2200,2209,2217,2246,2263,2268,2274,2280,2283,2286,2289,2294,2297,2302,2305,2310,2313,2318,2323,2326,2331,2334,2337,2342,2347,2350,2355,2363,2369,2376,2381,2386,2389,2394,2397,2402,2408,2422,2444,2458,2476,2487,2493,2501,2509,2515,2521,2529,2536,2549,2552,2558,2561,2570,2573,2577,2580,2585,2588,2594,2597,2602,2607,2612,2618,2626,2631,2634,2641,2644,2652,2657,2660,2665,2668,2671,2680,2685,2688,2693,2696,2701,2704,2709,2716,2728,2737,2746,2757,2760,2765,2786,2808,2821,2826,2829,2834,2837,2842,2845,2850,2853,2858,2861,2864,2867,2872,2875,2878,2900,2903,2906,2909,2918,2924,2927,2930,2935,2938,2952,2972,2975,2980,2986,2992,3000,3008,3011,3017,3020,3026,3029,3034,3037,3042,3045,3048,3051,3054],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-我为什么开始喜欢苹果","第一节 我为什么开始喜欢苹果",[827,828,829,833],"p",{},[830,831,832],"strong",{},"博文："," one apple a day keeps the doctor away（2011-01-22）",[827,835,836],{},"今天是option到期日，呵呵，又是一年。我有很多长option到期。在每天用着iphone和ipad的这些日子里，突然开始喜欢苹果了。也许看完《阿甘正传》就应该认真关注一下这家水果公司的，实在是有点太懒。看起来似乎现在也还不太晚。",[827,838,839,840,843],{},"说说我喜欢",[830,841,842],{},"苹果","的一些理由。这不是论文，想到就说，没有重点和先后次序。",[827,845,846,847,849,850,854,855,858,859,861],{},"1.",[830,848,842],{},"的产品确实把",[851,852,156],"a",{"href":853},"\u002Fyonghutiyan","或",[851,856,53],{"href":857},"\u002Fxiaofeizhedaoxiang","做到极致了，对手在相当长的时间里难以超越甚至接近(对喜欢",[830,860,842],{},"的用户而言)。",[827,863,864,865,867,868,871,872,875,876,879],{},"2.",[830,866,842],{},"的",[851,869,166],{"href":870},"\u002Fpingtai","建立起来了，或者说",[830,873,874],{},"生意模式","或者说",[851,877,74],{"href":878},"\u002Fhuchenghe","已经形成了(光软件一年都几十亿的收入了)。",[827,881,882,883,885,888,889,892,893,895],{},"3.",[830,884,842],{},[851,886,176],{"href":887},"\u002Fdanyichanpin","的模式实际上是我们这个行业里的最高境界，以前我大概只见到",[830,890,891],{},"任天堂","做到过(索尼的游戏产品类似)。",[851,894,176],{"href":887},"的模式有非常多的好处：",[827,897,898,899,902,903,905],{},"(1)可以集中人力物力将产品做得更好。比较一下iPhone系列和",[830,900,901],{},"诺基亚","系列(今年要推出40个品种)。",[830,904,842],{},"产品的单位开发成本是非常低的，但单个产品的开发费却是最高的。",[827,907,908,909,911,912,914],{},"(2)材料成本低且质量好，大规模带来的效益。",[830,910,842],{},"的成本控制也是做到极致的，同样功能的硬件恐怕没人能达到",[830,913,842],{},"的成本。",[827,916,917,918,921,922,924],{},"(3)",[851,919,161],{"href":920},"\u002Fqudao","成本低。呵呵，不是同行的不一定能明白这话到底有什么分量(同行也未必明白)，我是20年前从",[830,923,891],{},"那里学会的。那时很多做游戏机的都喜欢做很多品种，最后下场都不太好。",[827,926,927,928,930],{},"4.",[830,929,842],{},"的营销也是做到极致了，连广告费都比同行低很多，卖的价钱却往往很好。",[827,932,933,934,936],{},"5.",[830,935,842],{},"的产品处在一个巨大并还有巨大成长的市场里。",[827,938,939],{},"(1)智能手机市场有多大？你懂的！",[827,941,942],{},"(2)平板市场有多大？你也会懂的。",[827,944,945,946,948],{},"总而言之，我认为",[830,947,842],{},"现在其实还处在其成长的早期，应该还有很大的空间。(2011-01-22)",[827,950,951],{},"扣掉现金的话，苹果的今年的未来pe只有12-13倍啊，明年可能要到10以下了。当然，以上我说的这些点中的任何一点的改变都可能或多或少地改变苹果，如果有苹果的股票的话，就要留心这些变化了。我认为Jobs如果真请长假的话，在相当长的时间里对苹果的业务不会有大影响。（2011-01-22）",[827,953,954,956],{},[830,955,842],{},"把用户导向真正做到了极致，它绝对是我们制造业学习的榜样。(2011-01-08)",[827,958,959],{},"实际上，排名不是我们要追求的东西。能做出用户喜欢的产品才是我们的追求。也许真有哪一天我们也能做出个伟大的产品，希望50年内。(2010-06-08)",[827,961,962],{},"不在乎排名的意思是我们只在乎用户的感受，排名只是结果而已，不是追求的目标。(2010-06-09)",[827,964,965,966,968,969,971,972,974],{},"上面两句话是在买",[830,967,842],{},"之前说的。",[830,970,842],{},"确实做到了我想做的事情，2011年1月的时候我就是想通了这点才开始买",[830,973,842],{},"的。(2024-09-12)",[827,976,977,842,980],{},[830,978,979],{},"说一点我特别喜欢",[830,981,982,983,985,986,989],{},"的地方：",[830,984,842],{},"是非常难见到的能够长期聚焦在",[851,987,23],{"href":988},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","上的企业。",[827,991,992,993,996,997,999,1000,1002],{},"多数人在投资时很习惯去看有没有",[851,994,28],{"href":995},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","这点，从而会很容易掉进短期表现当中。即使是伟大的企业，在",[851,998,23],{"href":988},"的过程当中，也是可能会犯错的，因为",[851,1001,28],{"href":995},"往往需要一个过程。",[827,1004,1005,1006,1008,1009,1011],{},"所谓长期投资，从某种角度上说，就是要能够相信坚持",[851,1007,23],{"href":988},"的、有能力的公司，最后会",[851,1010,28],{"href":995},"。(2013-02-13)",[827,1013,1014,1017,1018,1020,1021,1023],{},[830,1015,1016],{},"OPPO"," 和",[830,1019,842],{},"其实有很多相同的基因，这也是我最后能看懂",[830,1022,842],{},"的原因之一。(2011-08-07)",[827,1025,1026,1029],{},[830,1027,1028],{},"段永平："," 我可是下决心去花时间用了一会儿android的东西，觉得确实不如苹果的好用，而且差距还不小。我以前其实很抵触苹果的，不然不会到上个月才想起来要买苹果。用了一段iphone和iphone后（前面还用过ipod），确实很服气。（2011-02-12）",[827,1031,1032],{},"博文：说说iPhone（4）和iPad（2）",[827,1034,1035,1036,1039,1040,1043,1044,1046,1047,1049,1050,1052],{},"我不是所谓的“果粉”、像我这个年纪和这么",[851,1037,222],{"href":1038},"\u002Flixing","的人，不大会是任何人或东西的粉丝，我甚至不是",[830,1041,1042],{},"巴菲特","的粉丝。实际上我以前一直多少有点不太喜欢",[830,1045,842],{},"，毕竟用了PC和",[830,1048,901],{},"这么多年，但iPhone和iPad 的出现确实彻底改变了我对",[830,1051,842],{},"的认识。",[827,1054,1055],{},"作为一个普通人，我没能力从技术上去说这些产品，所以只说说我都用iPhone和iPad 干什么。",[827,1057,1058,1059,1062,1063,1065],{},"1.首先，",[830,1060,1061],{},"iPhone和iPad都非常容易上手","。早年用摩托罗拉的时候，心里那个烦啊，用户界面太难用了。后来用",[830,1064,901],{},"的智能手机时又找到了当年用摩托罗拉的感觉。以我个人的水平而言，安卓的界面水平还远远比不上iPhone(也许我们自己的出来后会改变一点这个局面？期待中)。",[827,1067,1068,1069,1072,1073,1076],{},"上个月我曾经想买个安卓手机试试的，在商店里转了半个多小时，店员给我介绍了10来分钟，在3个牌子(",[830,1070,1071],{},"HTC","、",[830,1074,1075],{},"三星","、摩托罗拉)间挑来挑去，晕晕乎乎中最后还是决定不给自己添麻烦了。",[827,1078,1079,1080,1082,1083,1085],{},"iPhone ?呵呵，我几乎拿到手里时就会用了。店员只是告诉我开关在哪里，那些图标是什么，前后花了大概15秒钟。当",[830,1081,842],{},"的销售员可真容易啊，我自己前段时间在",[830,1084,842],{},"店里只花了几分钟就推销了一台iPad 2。",[827,1087,1088],{},"2.我用 iPhone 干什么？我的iPhone上下载的软件其实比大多数人都少，毕竟不太花时间玩这个东西。电话、短信、E-mail、上网、世界时间、天气、图片、地图、记事本、YouTube、相机、录音、录像、字典、相册、图书馆、iPod、FaceTime、电影、电视、股票查询及交易、报纸、指南针、日历(记事本)、游戏，等等，不太注意但特别常用的是手电筒。",[827,1090,1091],{},"这些功能可能只是iPhone的沧海一粟。其实我想说的不是iPhone有多少功能，最重要的是所有这些功能都非常容易上手。一学就会，无师自通！",[827,1093,1094],{},"3.很多人说iPad其实就是个大号的iPhone。在用iPad之前我同意这个说法，但用了一段时间后觉得这个大确实大得非常有道理。我现在基本上已经不太用我的手提电脑了，旅行的时候带上iPad就绝对够了，iPhone有时候还是觉得有点小。对我而言，iPad2最强大的地方就是网络功能很强大，上网非常快，又没有手提电脑开机的麻烦，用起来真是很爽，携带起来又轻便。",[827,1096,1097],{},"还有一个特别强大的功能就是图片，包括上网看图片。我的iPad2里有大概1万张照片，记录着我们生活中的很多瞬间，没事看看真的觉得生活很美好，这个玩意儿该值多少钱呢？FaceTime也是一个很好的功能，在有Wi-Fi的前提下用起来那个叫方便，比打电话还容易。",[827,1099,1100],{},"我给我妈妈也买了个iPad 2，最近能让人带回去，里面也装上我们的照片。以后视频通话就非常方便了(以前曾经想过用电脑视频，实在是有点麻烦)，没事老人家还可以翻翻照片，真是好啊。",[827,1102,1103],{},"别的就不说了，有机会大家自己体会吧。总的来讲，如果经济上不是个太大的负担的话，iPhone和iPad2是绝对值得拥有的产品，生活确实因此变得不同了。(2011-03-31)",[822,1105,1107],{"id":1106},"第二节-单一产品与极致体验","第二节 单一产品与极致体验",[827,1109,1110,1111,1113],{},"iPhone 4s发售第一天我就跑去排队买了一台，出来时碰上国内某著名公司的一个朋友，然后去他们公司看了一眼，回车上时居然把iPhone的面给摔裂了。今天有空去",[830,1112,842],{},"店换了一台，本来还想给太太也买一台的，发现iPhone 4s已经卖空了。现在要买的人必须晚上9点上网订。第二天去拿，稍微晚点恐怕就要再等第二天了。",[827,1115,1116,1117,1119],{},"有意思的是，我先说要买一台，",[830,1118,842],{},"店的人告诉我今天没了，然后我说换一台行不，结果换一台有货。iPhone 4s这个卖法，这个季度的财报要创纪录了。(2011-10-20)",[827,1121,1122,1123,1125,1126,1128],{},"结果今天晚上去网上买，9点pm准时开始登陆，选palo alto（帕洛阿尔托）的",[830,1124,842],{},"店，9:15才进去。白的64G的AT&T的已经没了，到大概9:40pm，所有的都卖光，还想买的只能等明天晚上上网订了。真猛啊！",[830,1127,842],{},"的销售系统一直在改进中，现在至少不用去排队了。",[827,1130,1131,1132,1134,1135,1137,1138,1140,1141,1143],{},"网友：",[830,1133,842],{},"和Windows的",[851,1136,156],{"href":853},"很不一样，我和朋友们的归纳就是两者都很强大(当然还有UNIX系统也很强大)，但是",[830,1139,842],{},"让人用近乎白痴的方式使用强大的功能，而Windows让人用近乎专业人士的方式使用强大的功能(UNIX",[851,1142,166],{"href":870},"的系统是让人用近乎天才的方式使用强大的功能)。",[827,1145,1146,1148,1149,842,1152,1158,1159],{},[830,1147,1028],{}," ",[830,1150,1151],{},"你这个形容很形象，这正是",[830,1153,1154,1155,1157],{},"厉害的地方。",[830,1156,842],{},"还有不少特别厉害的地方，比如品种单一，所以效率高、质量一致性好、成本低、库存好管理等等。我从做","小霸王",[830,1160,1161],{},"时就追求品种单一，特别知道单一的好处和难度，这个行业里明白这一点并有意识去做的不多，我们现在也根本做不到这一点。",[827,1163,1164,1167,1168],{},[830,1165,1166],{},"比较一下","诺基亚，",[830,1169,1170],{},"你就马上能明白品种单一的好处和难度了。",[827,1172,1173,1175,1176,1178,1179,1181],{},[830,1174,901],{},"需要用很多品种才能做到",[851,1177,53],{"href":857},"，而",[830,1180,842],{},"用一个品种就做到了，这里面功夫差很多啊。(2011-01-22)",[827,1183,1184],{},"网友B：我想问一下段大哥Iphone4手机和其他品牌手机的差异化在哪里？我感觉它们的功能都差不多，没有什么差别．人们喜欢Iphone4最主要是因为它的质量好和高档次的品位？",[827,1186,1187,1189],{},[830,1188,1028],{}," 我不是产品专家，不知道怎么说，你只有用过才知道。我经常见到用过别的手机的人换到iphone的，还没见过用iphone的换到其他手机的。（2011-01-23）",[827,1191,1192],{},"网友：我先是入Iphone，然后2010用IPAD，后来看着DELL的台式机越看越烦，怎么PC工业发展这么多年，机器还是这么难看：电线缠绕，风扇嘈杂，怒了！于是PC也改成IMAC了，现在觉得MACOS还真是不错，流畅简洁，美观大方。",[827,1194,1195,1197],{},[830,1196,1028],{}," 是啊，越来越多的PC的支持者开始倒向苹果，这在PC年代是不可思议的事情。（2011-01-23）",[827,1199,1200,1202],{},[830,1201,1028],{}," 今天去了一趟verizon，想买个cdma的iphone，结果说要每天一大早去排队才有机会，只好在网上买了一个（不知道什么时候可以寄来）。32g的非合同价799美金，两年合同价299美金。我买了个两年合同价的，结果是每个月的月费要165美金。",[827,1204,1205],{},"本来还想买个gphone的，在店里看了半个多小时，htc、3星和moto的都试了一下，实在是不习惯用，最后决定暂时还是不买了，等我们自己的出来再说吧。（2011-02-10）",[827,1207,1208,1210],{},[830,1209,1028],{}," 我也觉得苹果把开放和封闭的好处都做到极致了。我刚刚买了一台Mac book，去上了一个小时的一对一的课，突然发现原来苹果的电脑也很好用。如果10年前我想起来去上个这个课的话，我就发达了。这是我用电脑以来消费感受最好的一次。（2011-03-01）",[827,1212,1213],{},"博文：当了一回销售员（2011-03-23）",[827,1215,1216,1218],{},[830,1217,1028],{}," 今天去了一趟苹果专卖店，在玩ipad2时旁边有一对同胞母子想买ipad2带回中国去，于是自告奋勇地当了一回销售员，从功能介绍到如何付款介绍了一遍，直到他们点了最后的成交键才算完事。似乎卖个苹果的产品还挺容易的。",[827,1220,1221],{},"我的ipad2还没消息呢，3月11号网上订的，说要2-3礼拜才到。现在订要4-5个礼拜了。",[827,1223,1224],{},"昨天在网上又买了一台ipad2，准备带给妈妈用。以后视频就方便了，还可以存很多照片在里面。（2011-03-23）",[827,1226,1227],{},[830,1228,1229,1230,1232],{},"单一比较容易聚焦，这意味着",[851,1231,28],{"href":995},"的概率高同时犯错误的概率低。",[827,1234,1235],{},"要做到单一是非常难的一件事，因为市场的需求是多样化的。iPad和iPhone 有一样神奇的东西，那就是不管什么年龄段的用户都觉得这是个专门为自己设计的产品。",[827,1237,1238],{},"我那个“著名”朋友李录是个孝子，给70多的老爸买了个iPad，结果老爸一天到晚地捧着iPad，还跟李录说：这东东简直就是专门为我设计的嘛。(2011-04-09)",[827,1240,1241],{},"网友：这个有点儿不明白，为什么要买的需要等一天，要换的却有货呢？是因为要优先保证退换的人可以及时拿到吗？看来我是被“教育”得很“好”的消费者，如果我要去换，人家告诉我和买的人享受同等待遇而不是要等货源宽松再给我，我就谢天谢地了，如果说我还有优先权，那真是惊喜啊！",[827,1243,1244,1247],{},[830,1245,1246],{},"段永平：你不明白没关系，反正大多数人或公司也不明白，说明你很正常哦。"," （2011-10-23）",[827,1249,1250],{},"网友：您当年是怎么控制库存的？",[827,1252,1253,1255],{},[830,1254,1028],{}," 安全第一的原则。小步快跑，宁愿少赚些，不要出大问题。(2011-12-15)",[827,1257,1258,1259,1261],{},"“iPhone 4s再出问题，有用户反映耳机出现间歇性故障，向外打电话时无法听见声音。据",[830,1260,842],{},"官网显示，关于耳机失灵的讨论已经多达近30页，不少用户表示这次故障能够通过重新开机或者拔掉耳机后恢复，但是这仅是暂时解决问题。”(新闻)",[827,1263,1264],{},[830,1265,1266],{},"品种少的好处之一，有问题反应快，解决也快。",[827,1268,1269,1271],{},[830,1270,1028],{}," 如果按这篇文章的说法，ipad的单台成本同比提高了大约60多块，但有些可能因为量上来后的成本减低不含在内。ipad的平均售价大概在550到600的样子，新ipad出来后ipad的销量提升可以很轻易消化单台成本的提高。不过，别的pad确实就不好搞了。（2012-03-19）",[827,1273,1274,1276],{},[830,1275,1028],{}," 我用新ipad的感觉：和ipad2比较 1．确实快了很多，下载居然比在pc上还快不少，很爽。2.录像清晰度很震撼，没事录点小朋友的活动真好，看起来也方便。3．看电影和看照片非常好。别的还没时间玩，这几点就很值了。其实ipad2就很好用了，要想省钱的话，买个ipad2也不错。（2012-03-30）",[827,1278,1279,1281],{},[830,1280,1028],{}," “在全球范围内，新iPad的供应都非常紧张。新iPad的销售速度几乎与生产速度处于同一水平。”（2012-04-28）",[827,1283,1284,1286],{},[830,1285,1028],{}," 越来越多的公司会开始用ipad干这类事，mini ipad更适合这类市场。也许以后家里的各种遥控用的也都是mini ipad。（2012-05-12）",[827,1288,1289,1291],{},[830,1290,1028],{}," iOS6实在是强大啊，现在iPad也可以用Siri（语音录入）了。iPhone 5的试用体验非常好，还没有iPhone的可以试试吧。（2012-09-23）",[827,1293,1294,1295,1297,1298,1300],{},"网友：为什么",[851,1296,176],{"href":887},"模式可以降低",[851,1299,161],{"href":920},"成本？",[827,1302,1303,1305,1306,1308,1309,1311],{},[830,1304,1028],{}," 你倒过来想也许就明白了。举个例子，20多年前我们卖",[830,1307,1158],{},"游戏机(还没到学习机)时，",[830,1310,1158],{},"游戏机只有两款：红白机和蓝白机(有点像iPhone 的黑色和白色)，对手们经常都是有好几十款的。当时我们的销售部门被质疑最多的问题就是款式太少。好像最后款式多的那些对手绝大多数都消失了，原因大概就是品种太多最后导致的问题(其实是表象)。",[827,1313,1314],{},"(2013-02-16)",[827,1316,1317],{},[830,1318,1319,1320,1322,1323,1325],{},"这里说的",[851,1321,161],{"href":920},"成本的意思就是品种越多，占用的",[851,1324,161],{"href":920},"库存越大，是几何级数的关系。(2011-04-09)",[827,1327,1328],{},[830,1329,1330,1331,1334],{},"一般来说，因为技术进步非常快，电子产品一旦一定时间内卖不出去贬值就会非常高。同一",[851,1332,141],{"href":1333},"\u002Fpinpai","的产品的品类在超过一定数量后，库存会比较难管理，处理成本会非常高。(2020-10-29)",[827,1336,1131,1337,1339,1340,1342],{},[830,1338,842],{},"是",[851,1341,53],{"href":857},"的典范。",[827,1344,1345,1148,1347,1349],{},[830,1346,1028],{},[830,1348,842],{},"确实特别在意消费者体验。(2013-04-08)",[827,1351,1352,1354],{},[830,1353,1028],{}," 配上指纹识别的iPhone5s以后连小偷都没兴趣了，也不会有专业抢劫的抢了。",[827,1356,1357],{},"居然很少有人注意这点，非常惊讶。",[827,1359,1360],{},"特别强调一下：说5s安全不是说指纹识别，而是说iOS7！指纹识别只是保证了这点而已。",[827,1362,1363],{},"看来知道iOS7的还不够多，需要安全的最好看看iOS7。",[827,1365,1366],{},"想像一下三年后，当iPhone6，iPhone7出来的时候（也许iPhone6就有大屏了），iPhone5c，5s的威力就彻底显现出来了。",[827,1368,1369],{},"接下来的iwatch，itv，iPad，iPad mini都是值得期盼的产品。",[827,1371,1372],{},"不过，美国以外的发布会确实有点匪夷所思，没看懂。（2013-09-11）",[827,1374,1375,1376,1378],{},"网友：今天看到",[830,1377,842],{},"官方出售二手iPhone的消息，包括各型号的回收价与售价对比，段总怎么看？",[827,1380,1381,1383,1384,1386],{},[830,1382,1028],{}," 我的看法是，只有",[830,1385,842],{},"能够做这件事情，别人其实做不了。(2015-04-14)",[827,1388,1389,1391,1392,1394],{},[830,1390,842],{},"产品的残值高也说明",[830,1393,842],{},"的东西确实好。(2013-12-13)",[827,1396,1397,1399],{},[830,1398,1028],{}," 表到了！就一个字：苹果又颠覆了一个行业！用了三天，觉得以后离不开苹果表了。",[827,1401,1402],{},"个人观点：运动型表的表带设计的不够好，戴上的时候不够方便。（2015-04-24）",[827,1404,1405,1407],{},[830,1406,1028],{}," 已经用了苹果表2几天了，感觉非常好。现在每天戴着游泳，轻松知道多少个来回，平均速度，平均心跳，消耗了多少卡路里。（2016-09-29）",[827,1409,1410],{},"01．雪球访谈：专访牵牛星李剑",[827,1412,1413],{},"我不太擅长研究公司的治理和策略。我主张研究公司最重要的是研究公司的产品，因为公司的其他一切都围绕着公司的产品和服务来进行和得到体现……",[827,1415,1416],{},"不明真相的群众：这个有点意思。",[827,1418,1419,1421],{},[830,1420,1028],{}," 给妈妈带了个ipad2回去，现在终于可以facetime，也就是可以视频通话了。以前尝试用过电脑上的视频通话，怎么都搞不掂。ipad2确实方便啊。",[827,1423,1424,1426],{},[830,1425,1028],{}," apple watch我最常用的是督促自己运动，到目前为止连续完成每天运动任务的天数已经超过10天。第二常用的功能是imessage，主要是收到时可以看一眼，需要时也可以用siri回。接下来用的比较多的就是每天的行程的提醒，天气，偶尔接个电话或打个电话。从来没有过想用手表回Email的想法。偶尔用来测下心跳。当然，手表的功能就不说了。",[827,1428,1429],{},"总而言之，有戴表习惯的有足够理由买一个（其实我想说的是没理由不买一个），不戴表的只能自己去衡量了。（2015-05-14）",[827,1431,1432],{},"网友：请问大道 ，iPhone 右边有个照相键您使用感受如何，反正我一次也没用过，而且经常不小心误触就打开了，很影响使用体验，索性就给关掉了。算画蛇添足吗，将来会不会取消这个键呢？",[827,1434,1435],{},"大道：哈，我现在倒是经常用，但确实觉得有点多余。（2025-11-14）",[827,1437,1438],{},"网友：我儿子10岁了，从6岁开始用小天才现在准备给他换苹果手表了。因为价格是一样的，但是功能比小天才多。",[827,1440,1441],{},"大道：哈，你要先问下你儿子。苹果表功能确实多很多的，但你儿子需要的功能未必就多。（2026-08-14）",[827,1443,1444],{},"网友X：这句话我也留意到了，当时没太明白disappear消失，后来想想确实在iphone上这个扫指纹的动作是disappear消失的，因为它和用户们早已习惯的长按home键动作一样（甚至更少了按下去的动作）。",[827,1446,1447,1449],{},[830,1448,1028],{}," 关于新技术的应用，我以前就猜想新的iphone会不会应用像bose耳机的主动降噪技术，把周围噪音的反向信号加到听筒里来改善噪音环境下接电话的情形（第一次试用bose耳机时印象太深刻所以有这个想法），上网一查才发现自己手里的手机早就用上这个技术了！而我之前是不知道的，再一回想，用5以来还真是没遇过听不清楚的情况。",[827,1451,1452],{},"技术真正disappear消失到无形。我看到镜头边上的小mic孔觉得很感动，特别赞同Siri对于我的问题的回答。“世界最好的手机是什么？” “你手里拿着的这一个。”可惜很快就不是了，因为有了5s。",[827,1454,1455],{},"网友：我的观察，买苹果的人大部分不是因为性价比高。价值有多少或性价比有多高，一般用户怎么计算得清楚呢？人们用苹果主要是因为好用、放心用、有面子。性价比其次。当然，有很多人因为售价高而不舍得买的。但这部分人也不是因为性价比不够高而不买的。总的来说，苹果因品质高而受欢迎，因价格高而不可能太普及了。",[827,1457,1458,1460],{},[830,1459,1028],{}," 我同意苹果产品是高性价比的。高性价比的东西不等于便宜，该知道的人最后都会知道的。好的车往往也是性价比高的车，而且这些车往往比较贵，想通这个就明白苹果的性价比问题了。当然，对于那些整天换手机，最后换到iphone的人们而言，这个问题就不是问题。（2014-08-28）",[827,1462,1463,1464,1466,1467,1470,1471,1473],{},"网友：我觉得",[830,1465,842],{},"也挺有",[851,1468,48],{"href":1469},"\u002Fganweitianxiahou","的意味，指纹识别早在很多电子产品上都用过，一直都不成功，我自己的笔记本上也有指纹识别，从来没用过。但是发布会上的",[830,1472,842],{},"指纹识别，非常令人期待。此前4s推出Siri 的时候也是把别人用不好的语音控制功能用到出彩。",[827,1475,1476,1478,1479,1482],{},[830,1477,1028],{}," 乔纳森·伊夫在Touch ID指纹功能的视频中说：We believe that technology is at it's very best, at its most empowering, when it simply disappears(我们认为，",[830,1480,1481],{},"当科技完全融入生活而让人几乎意识不到它的存在时，科技就达到了最佳状态，也最具赋能作用",")。(2013-09-11)",[827,1484,1485,1486,1489],{},"我对伊夫这句话的理解是：",[830,1487,1488],{},"最牛的技术就是用户看不到的技术(技术消失的时候)","。想想大家以前见过的PC上那个巨丑的指纹识别器就明白这是啥意思了。(2013-09-15)",[827,1491,1492],{},"网友Ｌ：我理解的苹果就是一家高度聚焦的公司：用科技和艺术的结合为世界提供完美产品！",[827,1494,1495],{},"不管是IOS系统、iphone、iPad，还是未来的iWatch、iCar……都在这一焦点指导下。",[827,1497,1498],{},"用了几年的苹果产品，说三点最深的体会：",[827,1500,1501],{},"1：安全、好用、实用、耐用",[827,1503,1504],{},"在IOS足够安全，简洁的系统里，再也不用浪费时间去升级了（简直就是一个解脱）；不用再担心父母使用困难（又一个解脱）；把iWork、iLife统统存iCloud上，用任意同样流畅的终端调用………",[827,1506,1507],{},"2：爱不释手",[827,1509,1510],{},"一个好的设计既要简约又要有内涵，同时还要有质感，这或许就是艺术的部分吧（我也表达不完全）；就是不管拿在手里，还是使用各种app（应用软件），怎么用都不觉得腻。",[827,1512,1513],{},"3：性价比超高",[827,1515,1516],{},"其他衣、食、住、行，如果要达到苹果这样的高度和水准，基本上都贵得让一般人承受不起。",[827,1518,1519],{},"我使用过的产品不外乎或好用、或迷人、或不好还不迷人、也有好用又迷人同时非常贵的……直到苹果的出现，它同时实现了好用又迷人还不贵。",[827,1521,1522],{},"IWacth推出会让我们重新使用手表，传统手表除了装饰和收藏外，已经没有使用价值了；而汽车也已经到了可以实现颠覆性产品的时代了。（其实我也不知道苹果会不会做汽车，特斯拉的问题虽然很多，但电动车的驾驶体验相对于传统汽车还是很震撼的，如果苹果找到了解决技术的人才，加之本身的设计能力，相信大概率能重塑这个行业）。",[827,1524,1525],{},"每次写苹果，都觉得生活美好，有盼头！",[827,1527,1528,1530],{},[830,1529,1028],{}," 你确实是明白的果粉。只有真正的果粉才能明白苹果产品的性价比多数情况下是比别人高很多的。（2015-02-16）",[827,1532,1131,1533,1535,1536,1538],{},[830,1534,842],{},"5代出来了，配置不好。",[830,1537,842],{},"说他们不拼硬件，那他们拼软件吗？",[827,1540,1541,1148,1543],{},[830,1542,1028],{},[830,1544,1545],{},"体验。(2012-09-16)",[827,1547,1548,1549,1551],{},"网友：好像每年",[830,1550,842],{},"出新款，大道都会换新机，我以为大道今年会换成17 Pro Max。",[827,1553,1554,1556],{},[830,1555,1028],{}," 明天才能换啊！（2025-09-12）开始用17 Pro Max了，确实更丝滑。（2025-10-14）",[827,1558,1559],{},"网友：大道，有没有发现17pro Max品控问题很大，我特意从天津山姆买了一款也有此问题，很是奇怪。列举了一些通病，不知你在美国买的手机是否有这些问题。",[827,1561,1562],{},"大道：我的17 pro max 也摔裂了，从不到半米的地方，而且直接就开不了机。主要原因是我没买保护套。我不知道统计数据，无法比较。（2026-01-18）",[827,1564,1565],{},"不知道大家有没有丢电话的经历？丢了以后怎么办？",[827,1567,1568,1569,1571],{},"前段时间我在旅行中丢了一件行李(iPad在里面)，当时以为是丢在机场了，后来突然想起",[830,1570,842],{},"的Find my iPhone的功能，结果用iPhone一查(可以用任何别的IOS设备)，发现我的iPad还在酒店里。(值钱吧？)马上打电话给酒店告诉了他们，结果几天后酒店就把行李寄回来了。",[827,1573,1574],{},"还有一次把iPhone掉在沙发的缝里了，一时半会找不到，结果还是靠Findmy iPhone找到的。(这个功能你愿意付多少？)",[827,1576,1577,1578,1581],{},"当然，就算找到在哪里，万一捡到的人不肯归还怎么办？Find myiPhone 上还有一个功能，那就是可以立刻消除你丢失的iPhone或iPad上的所有资料。另外就是，在补一个新的iPhone或iPad时，只要用自己的",[830,1579,1580],{},"Apple"," ID，几乎所有的资料就又都回来了。(这个功能值多少钱？)",[827,1583,1584],{},"有个朋友前几天说丢了电话所以丢了所有电话号码，对于iPhone使用者来说，这个事情不会再发生了。(这个值钱不？)",[827,1586,1587,1588,1590],{},"好像只要记得自己的",[830,1589,1580],{},"ID就可以用这个办法找到自己的iPhone或iPad，只要开始用的时候把ID开通了就行。(这个其实也很有价值，因为人们往往是丢了以后才知道这个功能的。)",[827,1592,1593],{},"都说iPhone贵，想想丢电话时自己愿意付多少钱把丢掉的资料找回来并且不失密吧。如果觉得这个重要的话，那就……",[827,1595,1596,1597,1599],{},"iCloud 确实强大，不然",[830,1598,1075],{},"的人不会回家后用iPhone和iPad 的。(2012-12-13)",[827,1601,1602],{},"网友：成为街机的iPhone的热度会持续多久？已经无法成为身份象征的 iPhone 是否还会得到富裕人群的青睐？",[827,1604,1605,1607],{},[830,1606,1028],{}," 一个季度3700万富人买iPhone?买iPhone只是因为iPhone好用，只有不用iPhone的人才可能认为iPhone是身份象征。(2012-01-31)",[827,1609,1610],{},"每个人都是会看性价比的，但每个人对价格的敏感度不同。还有就是每个人对钱的看法不一样。比如有人会为了便宜去买不安全的车，等等。(2013-02-27)",[827,1612,1613],{},"我一直觉得iPhone很可能是最便宜的手机，因为单位时间里(比如10年20年)需要花在买手机上的钱的总额很可能是最少的，如果你想省钱的话。(2023-11-03)",[827,1615,1616],{},"07．引用：【new iPad成本提高，Apple毛率恐大幅下滑】",[827,1618,1619],{},"在新iPad内部零件确认后，iSuppli根据每个零件的市场成本进行分析，售价不变的第三代iPad，每个机型成本比iPad 2多出约30%，代表未来Apple的毛利率势必会向下修正……",[827,1621,1622],{},"网友：大道有用过macbook吗？能评论一下这款产品的优势吗？",[827,1624,1625,1627],{},[830,1626,1028],{}," 刚刚买了台27吋的iMac，官价1999，左加右加居然加到5000多了（苹果产品对价格敏感度低的人很有办法哈）。以前用过macbook，用ipad以后基本不用手提电脑了。（2013-02-17）",[822,1629,1631],{"id":1630},"第三节-生态系统与商业模式","第三节 生态系统与商业模式",[827,1633,1634,1636],{},[830,1635,1028],{}," 这个价让其他的pad怎么混啊。手提电脑的销量也会受到冲击的，我估计至少是30%左右的影响。",[827,1638,1639],{},"我估计ipad2（或以后版本）在中国一年至少会卖到500万台以上，如果有人告诉我这个数字是一千万台我也不会惊奇。",[827,1641,1642],{},"估计光礼品市场一年就得几百万台，至少是百万量级的。",[827,1644,1645],{},"A lot of times，people don't know what they want until you show it to them.--大多数人还没用过苹果的东西呢。",[827,1647,1648],{},[830,1649,1650],{},"iphone到目前为止的“市场占有率”只有5%，这就是为什么我认为苹果的产品还有很大上升空间的一个很重要的佐证。",[827,1652,1653,1656],{},[830,1654,1655],{},"另外，5%也从另一个侧面说明苹果的用户群在哪里，这些用户群别人是很难抢到的。"," （2011-05-07）",[827,1658,1659],{},"网友：段总，您让为手机和平板会代替台式电脑和笔记本吗？",[827,1661,1662,1664],{},[830,1663,1028],{}," 完全取代大概不会，至少在相当长时间里不会，但使用的频率会发生很大的变化，尤其是笔记本电脑。由于有了ipad，人们用笔记本电脑的机会大幅度下降，更换的时间也会大幅度的增加，所以做笔记本电脑生意为主的公司的日子会很难过，而且可能会越来越难过。（2012-01-30）",[827,1666,1667],{},"引用：【平板真的打倒游戏机？2月美国零售电玩销额年减20%】",[827,1669,1670,1672],{},[830,1671,1028],{}," 不研究产品难道还有别的办法？（2012-02-04）",[827,1674,1675,1677],{},[830,1676,1028],{}," ipad对游戏的影响是慢慢但巨大的。想通这个道理后，我把我原来有的game stop都卖了。（2012-03-10）",[827,1679,1680],{},"网友F：2011年第二财季iPhone销售额占总销售额的比例约为50%，而2012年第二财季占比约为58%。",[827,1682,1683],{},"因此，我觉得毛利率提高6%的主要因素不是来自成本的下降，而是高毛利率产品的销售占比提高带来的？!",[827,1685,1686,1688],{},[830,1687,1028],{}," “苹果第二财季毛利率为47.4%，高于去年同期的41.4%”．说明成本下降了很多。（2012-04-28）",[827,1690,1691],{},"网友：去年一年换了3个安卓手机，包括华为两个、oppo finder，最终，选择了iphone5。最近越来越体会到阿段所说的苹果系统的黏性和强大。苹果的东西，很方便。如：imessage，用qq通讯录可以实现同样的功能。苹果的照片流，用网易云相册也可以实现同样的功能。但苹果的厉害之处就在于，它总会做得更好一点，简单一点，更方便一点。",[827,1693,1694],{},"如：imessage直接在短信里面输入即可，照片流跟照片在同一个图标里面。而在安卓上实现这些功能，需要再点击一下app应用才行。最惊喜的是照片流在不同设备上的同步。当打开ipad，突然看见在iphone上拍摄的照片自动能在ipad上看到的时候，一下子觉得特别惊喜。而这种跨设备的整合，是其他对手所欠缺的。用了苹果，觉得更简洁、方便。",[827,1696,1697,1699],{},[830,1698,1028],{}," （微笑表情）（2013-02-17）",[827,1701,1702],{},"网友：想请教您10年或者5年后的苹果除了卖手机、ipad、笔记本和台式机以及相应的苹果商店及服务，也就是目前所有的这些其份额的提升，还能不能在移动互联网上分一杯羹有其他营利模式的出现，比如广告收入或者其他？",[827,1704,1705,1707],{},[830,1706,1028],{}," 现在apple id大概两个多亿，去年的软收入已经有好像120亿了。估计10年后apple id怎么着都有15到20亿了，10年后光这块一年也得300-500亿吧？这里面不知道有没有包括广告收入，但看过一个资料，说苹果产品的广告流量的有效性是移动设备里最高的，大概是安卓的3倍左右，但没看到进一步的详细东西。",[827,1709,1710],{},"估计10年后apple id怎么着都有15到20亿了。苹果未来会推什么不是我能想出来的，但itv是个很靠谱的产品，只是不知道还要多久。iwatch看起来也有点意思，不像是空穴来风。",[827,1712,1713,1716],{},[830,1714,1715],{},"段永平"," ：定性总是比定量分析重要，学长早就说过了，对吧？在今年早些时候的D11大会上，苹果CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）说过这样一段话：“数量对苹果来说从来都不是最重要的。我的理由是，苹果生产最好的PC，但我们不是生产最多的商家。我们生产最好的音乐播放器，但我们并不追求数量最多。我们生产最好的手机，但我们并不是最大的生产厂商。",[827,1718,1719],{},"iPad的消费者满意度超过任何平板电脑。在JD Powers排行版上，iphone已经连续九次荣膺榜首。因此，这就是我们的目标。我们做出最棒的产品以丰富消费者的生活，数量并不是我们的目标。”我用苹果用得很开心，别人不关注很可能是他们的损失。难道每个礼拜都要我判断一次苹果会不会推廉价手机？（2013-09-17）",[827,1721,1722,1723,1725,1726,1728,1729,1731,1732,1734],{},"网友：在中国买",[830,1724,842],{},"的人，都把",[830,1727,842],{},"当成一个标配的时尚品罢了。这和当年一部手机上万元，中国却买者甚众，是相同的道理。",[830,1730,842],{},"最后会发现低估了国人对",[830,1733,842],{},"手机的购买能力。",[827,1736,1737,1739],{},[830,1738,1028],{}," 任何产品开始时跟风买的都是大部分，但最初懂的那20%-25%的人最关键。(2012-04-26)",[827,1741,1742,1743,1745,1746,1748,1749,1751],{},"网友：我的",[830,1744,842],{},"电脑有一次不小心掉到浴缸的水里。马上拿起来用电吹风吹吹真的还能开机接着用，跟几个朋友说过这事，有些人还不太相信，总说我在推销",[830,1747,842],{},"，我说难道",[830,1750,842],{},"是靠推销的？",[827,1753,1754,1148,1756,842,1759,1762],{},[830,1755,1028],{},[830,1757,1758],{},"我和“厨师”聊天时，“厨师”特别提到",[830,1760,1761],{},"是不搞推销的","。(2014-08-20)",[827,1764,1765],{},"网友：好观点！",[827,1767,1768,1770],{},[830,1769,1028],{}," It's not an opinion. It is a fact.(这不是一个观点，而是一个事实。)(2011-11-07)",[827,1772,1773,1774,1776],{},"我十多年前就明白这个道理，从",[830,1775,891],{},"那里学的。这些年来很惊奇地发现，很少有人能看懂。(2011-11-08)",[827,1778,1779,1782,1783,1786],{},[830,1780,1781],{},"段永平：你可以想象一下，如果你是苹果的同行，你能用什么办法像苹果一样让用户拥有如此高的黏度，盈利能力还如此好。靠卖低价的都不是一个级别的哈，"," 苹果产品的实际成本比任何同行都低不少，主要低在除材料成本以外的地方。",[830,1784,1785],{},"如果你觉得你能找到一个办法，那就说明苹果其实不厉害。"," （2012-02-06）",[827,1788,1789],{},"网友：大道可以简单说说苹果的模式吗？",[827,1791,1792,1794],{},[830,1793,1028],{}," 有空在我博客上再写几句吧。",[827,1796,1797],{},"想了想又不想费这个事了。能写的我绝大部分都已经写了，明白的早就明白了，不明白的依然不明白，说不定还有一堆人会跳出来说‘我不同意你的观点’。呵呵，我佛只度有缘人，就这样吧。（2012-03-05）",[827,1799,1800],{},"网友：MAC的销售也会在中国爆发。",[827,1802,1803,1805],{},[830,1804,1028],{}," 那要看怎么定义爆发。也许用成长会更贴切。ipad或许可以用爆发，但ipad可能会爆发很久滴。（2012-04-28）",[827,1807,1808],{},"网友：偶有种感觉：苹果企业目前正在从爆发性增长阶段，逐步进入到稳健性高收益阶段。请教大道兄，从企业发展角度看，这个看法是否合理呢？",[827,1810,1811,1813],{},[830,1812,1028],{}," 苹果这种商业模式是可能会在某段时间里不那么稳健的，尤其是在产品过渡期。但从10年一阶段来看，苹果应该是满稳健的。（2013-07-01）",[827,1815,1816,1817,1819],{},"网友：国内支持",[830,1818,1580],{}," Pay的地方不多，不过也不用带信用卡，零钱也不用带，微信支付能覆盖所有场景。",[827,1821,1822,1824,1825,1828,1829,1831,1832,1834],{},[830,1823,1028],{}," 我有微信支付，也知道微信支付确实很成功，不然我这",[830,1826,1827],{},"腾讯","股东就白当了。不过，",[830,1830,1580],{}," Pay在很多国家里已经慢慢普及开了，国内慢慢也会有越来越多人用的，但因为有徽信支付等的原因，估计要慢很多，但10年后也许也会很普及的。我想说的是，",[830,1833,842],{},"系统未来在很多国家和地方会在金融体系里起到很大作用，当然这个长时间内不会在国内体现的。",[827,1836,1837],{},"网友：挺明显的，之前地铁很多人拿着psp玩，现在还能见到几个？",[827,1839,1840,1842],{},[830,1841,1028],{}," 我本来就不多，一年前就卖了换了苹果。原来觉得gme的生意模式还不错，但未来aapl的影响把gme的成长降低了（客气的说法哈）。想想苹果影响的行业吧，真是有趣。",[827,1844,1845,1846],{},"14．博文：",[830,1847,1848],{},"苹果40年（2016-04-02）",[827,1850,1851,1853],{},[830,1852,1028],{}," 40年前的4月1号苹果成立，40年的坚持成就了今天的苹果。",[827,1855,1856,1857],{},"01．博文：",[830,1858,1859],{},"苹果第二季度净利润59.9亿美元创历史新高",[827,1861,1862],{},[830,1863,1864],{},"段永平：两年过去了，这个季度苹果的净利润是95.47亿，年均成长率超过26%。如果当初是“buy to keep”的人们会觉得很不满意吗？",[827,1866,1867,1868,1870,1871,1874,1875,1877],{},"网友：大佬对晚辈企业（影石）的看法。原来是在布局下一个",[830,1869,842],{},"啊。\n大道：他们的",[851,1872,70],{"href":1873},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","看上去很难匹敌",[830,1876,842],{},"的。（2025-11-17）",[827,1879,1880],{},"01．博文：说说苹果（2013-02-24）",[827,1882,1883,1885],{},[830,1884,1028],{}," 有空慢慢把我对苹果的一些理解零零星星写下来，供自己思考。",[827,1887,1888],{},"顺便说下，今天想起一个从大面上了解都有谁在用苹果产品的办法：新浪微博会把每天的top100的微博单列出来，没事可以数一下用iOS和用android的比例。能够上top100的大概都算意见领袖了，应该有相当的代表性。",[827,1890,1891],{},"关于市场份额：好像很多人太在意市场份额这个其实没太多意义的指标。其实要提高市场份额不难，但保持有意义的份额不容易。诺基亚当年就是太在意市场份额才把自己推到绝境的。",[827,1893,1894],{},"李开复：多年前，当苹果饱受质疑时，记者问乔布斯：你如何看待苹果电脑只有5%的市场份额？乔布斯：“我们的市场份额比宝马或奔驰在汽车行业内份额还要高。然而，没有人会因为宝马或奔驰的份额而质疑他们。事实上，它们都是非常令人向往的产品和品牌。”",[827,1896,1897],{},"昨天去苹果的股东大会，听到库克讲了类似的话，大意是：虽然我们可以有个按钮，可以随时做最多的产品，但我们的文化是做最好的产品而不是最多的。不过，他也顺便提了一下，认为要建立一个强大的生态系统，必须要有一定的量。所以苹果是会兼顾最好的产品和足够的份额的关系的。",[827,1899,1900],{},"另外，库克也提到量的概念其实不仅仅是卖了多少，而是人们买了以后用多少。有兴趣的可以查下新浪上微博的活跃用户都在用啥，也许大家会发现用苹果的人的比例其实远远超过印象中的“市场占有率”。",[827,1902,1903],{},"参考的统计办法：可以看热门微博top100里发帖人是用什么发的帖，还可以看评论人用什么写的评论，也可以看微话题下面评论人是用什么评论的。",[827,1905,1906],{},"有人说ipad的“市场份额”在平板电脑中一直在下降，这其实是个很有趣的说法：",[827,1908,1909],{},"首先，ipad包括ipad mini的销量其实一直在高增长中；",[827,1911,1912],{},"第二，平板电脑的定义实际上根本就没有。安卓平板6吋的成本现在应该可以到$50上下了，很多人买这种平板其实就是相当于给孩子买个游戏机，和ipad的用途根本就不是一类。",[827,1914,1915],{},"记得库克还说：我们最重要的是聚焦在做最好的产品上，利润会随之而来的。关于大屏手机的猜想：还不是很理解为什么苹果还没有推大屏手机，但知道苹果已经认真考虑过了。猜想是：苹果可能有一个更好的方案，或者苹果推的时候再说？也许苹果还没有找到大屏是伟大产品的感觉？当然，只要苹果能出个大屏或比大屏更好的产品，早点晚点都不会影响苹果的价值的。",[827,1917,1918],{},[830,1919,1920],{},"关于苹果的几点猜想：（2013.03.04）",[827,1922,1923],{},"今天苹果股价掉到一年新低了，在苹果没有“任何”好消息之前再多掉些也非常可能。虽然理性上自己不觉得有啥，但居然也会觉得多少有点不舒服。我不认为苹果会为了股价而做些什么，而且苹果股价掉这么多百分比也不是第一次，大概也不会是最后一次。",[827,1925,1926],{},"我相信苹果会一如既往地聚焦在做最好的产品上，其他的早晚会随之而来的。我相信有些事情在未来早晚会发生的，只是不知道什么时候。要知道什么时候会发生比知道什么会发生要难太多了。",[827,1928,1929],{},"2．热销的iphone再现；其实目前iphone卖得依然很好，但大家升级的欲望似乎没有原来想象的那么强，虽然升级的用户满意度其实非常高。由于iphone用户的粘度以及苹果产品的生态环境，只要新的iphone能给出足够的理由，升级的比例应该会比5高不少的。",[827,1931,1932],{},"这个热销iphone可能是iphone5s，或者是iphone6，也可能再晚一点？反正早晚会来的。这其实就是“you must believe”的东西，不然就不应该投资苹果。",[827,1934,1935],{},"3．ipad会继续很久很久；ipad mini实际上已经把ipad的需求推上了一个新的台阶，一切都只是刚刚开始而已。只要看看有多少人在等待ipad mini的新版就知道mini会有多厉害了。至于其他的平板电脑对ipad的影响，我认为无论多大的影响其实都是未必是负面的，因为越多的人开始用平板电脑，未来ipad的市场就会越大。",[827,1937,1938],{},"4．其他的产品；mac部分就不说了，显然mac现在的日子比没有ipod以前要好过多了。随着ipod、iphone、ipad的出现，选择mac的比例明显提高了很多，包括我这种习惯用pc的人也开始用mac了。",[827,1940,1941],{},"关于苹果的其他产品的传说很多，我觉得iwatch和itv是真的会来的。个人觉得自己确实需要有个itv，但不知道什么时候苹果可以像itunes那样搞好itv。和内容供应商的谈判可能确实需要很久很久。iwatch到底是个什么东西还不太清楚，但传说的东西似乎很靠谱。",[827,1943,1944],{},"也许iwatch同时也是解决大屏手机的方案之一也说不定----在出大屏手机的同时出iwatch以解决大屏可能带来的不方便？",[827,1946,1947],{},"近期可能出现的变化可能是中国移动和日本的docomo的协议的签订，可能会随着iphone5s或iphone6的上市而开始。（2013-03-04）",[827,1949,1950],{},"网友：刚才数了一下，Top100微博：来自iPhone20个；来自iPad5个；来自Android3个；来自“其他手机”1个；其他的是显示来自微博，或某个应用某个网站之类。",[827,1952,1953,1955,1956,1958,1959,1961],{},[830,1954,1028],{}," 看一下娱乐版的会更有趣些。这个比例说明",[830,1957,842],{},"产品的使用率明显高于其他产品，好像没有别的指标可以更好地鉴别一个产品的好坏了。在微话题下，",[830,1960,842],{},"的使用量大概接近50%，其他的所有移动设备占到50%多一点，这些都是普通上网者。",[827,1963,1964],{},[830,1965,1966],{},"记得库克还说：我们最重要的是聚焦在做最好的产品上，利润会随之而来的。(2013-02-23)",[827,1968,1969,1970,1972,1973,1975],{},"网友：用习惯iPhone的人，一般改用安卓系统会不习惯的。",[830,1971,842],{},"只要一输入ID，程序、音乐、通讯录等等都会出现，通过",[830,1974,1580],{},"TV，可以把其他设备上的图像、视频、音乐随时显示出来。通过查找iPhone随时可以知道在外地的亲人在哪，然后通过FaceTime免费视频。",[827,1977,1978,1979,1981,1982,1984,1985,1987],{},"当iMac电脑的图像一键显示到投影上，当随时在中国用iPhone启动在美国家中的电脑并打开摄像头查看自己的宠物有没有捣乱，你就会感觉到科技的力量。",[830,1980,842],{},"成为世界第一大公司是理所当然的！还有",[830,1983,842],{},"绝对是",[851,1986,53],{"href":857},"的，你想要的功能它基本都已经实现了。",[827,1989,1990,1991,1993,1994,1996,1997,1999],{},"安卓系统这些功能可能借助其他应用也可以实现，但感觉一切都乱，设备互联性太差。",[830,1992,842],{},"是个大系统，音乐、视频、游戏、软件、相机、电脑等的钱它全赚了，关键你买的音乐、视频、程序等，一辈子都是你的，但必须在它的设备上才可以用。谁还会轻易换设备？",[830,1995,1580],{},"TV一定要买，它可以把所有",[830,1998,842],{},"的设备都联起来。",[827,2001,2002,1148,2004],{},[830,2003,1028],{},[830,2005,2006,2007,2010,2011,2013],{},"你说得很清楚，这个就叫",[851,2008,171],{"href":2009},"\u002Fshengtaixitong","。安卓的问题是现在卖得越多，将来可能就越乱，慢慢跑到苹果",[851,2012,171],{"href":2009},"里的人就会越多。",[827,2015,2016,842,2019],{},[830,2017,2018],{},"还有一个重要的东西，就是",[830,2020,2021],{},"的安全性。那么多企业要用iPhone和iPad 是有道理的。美国500强里95%开始用iPhone和iPad系统，世界500强里85%开始用一库克在股东大会上讲的。",[827,2023,2024],{},"听说目前好像只有iPhone不能被装窃听器，其他的手机绝大部分好像都可以，怕被人窃听的要小心了。(2013-03-04)",[827,2026,2027],{},"引用 苹果CEO库克接受《财富》杂志专访：我们从来没想要成为先行者，只想做最好的产品",[827,2029,2030],{},"《财富》：今年一财季，尽管销售了7400万台iphone，利润达到180亿美元，可是由于业绩同比基本持平，苹果遭受了许多的批评。你对此有何看法？",[827,2032,2033],{},"库克：我擅长于屏蔽噪音。我会回到核心问题：我们在做正确的事情吗？仍然记得自己的方向吗？我们是否专注于制造最好的设备，从而通过某种方式让人们的生活变得更丰富？人们真正喜欢我们的产品，客户很高兴：这才是我们的动力所在，随着时间的推移，我相信其他一切都会接踵而来。",[827,2035,2036],{},"《财富》：曾经有一段时间Mac（苹果电脑）占了营收的75%，今天却是iphone（苹果手机）占了大部分营收。怎样才能让产品营收比例变得更理想，你对此有何看法？",[827,2038,2039],{},"库克：在过去，Mac曾经占了100%的营收，随后iPod来了，营收组合出现了变化。我是这样看待这个问题的：专注于制造最好的产品。只有最好的产品才会带来其他的一切，最终我们的激活设备数量达到了10亿。我们不断增加客户想要的服务，上个季度服务业务的营收接近90亿美元。",[827,2041,2042],{},"《财富》：我换个方式来问吧，一直以来人们都认为苹果首先看重的还是销售设备，提供服务主要是为销售设备服务的，是这么一回事吗？",[827,2044,2045],{},"库克：已经不是这样了。我们的目光已经聚焦在开发好产品上。至于服务，在我们看来服务本身就是产品。不论是Apple Pay还是Apple Music，或者是App Store中的海量APP，推动这些服务发展的正是庞大的设备装机量。正因如此，投资服务才能带来很好的增长机会。2016-02-23",[827,2047,2048,2049,2051],{},"网友：段总：能否讲和总结一下：近5年来苹果是非常难见到的能够长期focus聚焦在“",[851,2050,23],{"href":988},"”的是指哪些？",[827,2053,2054,2056,2057,2060],{},[830,2055,1028],{}," 近五年来这句话是怎么出来的？这一改意思就完全变了。",[830,2058,2059],{},"苹果一直聚焦的就是“用户体验”，所以这样的公司才能出伟大的产品"," 。居然有些人会站在死胡同里说苹果的路会越走越窄，呵呵，有趣。（2013-02-18）",[827,2062,2063],{},"网友：苹果的股东大会说要发布震撼人心的产品，苹果又要爆发了。",[827,2065,2066,2068],{},[830,2067,1028],{}," 我去股东大会了，人家没说过，只说会聚焦在做最好的产品上，难道这还不够吗？（2013-03-02）",[827,2070,2071],{},"这么多手机公司，为什么苹果最成功？",[827,2073,2074,2076,2077,2080],{},[830,2075,1028],{}," 苹果很难得，focus（聚焦）在自己做的事情上。苹果有",[851,2078,186],{"href":2079},"\u002Flirunzhishangdezhuiqiu","，就是做最好的产品。苹果文化的强度很强，有严格的“Stop Doing List”，一定要满足用户，一定做最好的产品。我们不和苹果比，因为1000个功能里面，有一些比苹果强，说明不了什么。",[827,2082,2083],{},"就像CBA篮球打不过NBA，说我们会功夫，不是扯嘛。（2018-09-30）",[827,2085,2086],{},[2087,2088,2089],"em",{},"问：对预付费用户来说，iphone的价格过高。你对创造一种出色的用户体验是怎么想的？",[827,2091,2092,2093],{},"库克：这是一个经常都会被问及的问题。",[830,2094,2095],{},"伟大的产品是我们的“北极星”。在所有员工每天上班时，他们都会以此为目标。我们不会去做任何自认为不够伟大的产品；有些公司会这样做，但我们不会。",[827,2097,2098,2099,2101],{},"网友：在“做对的事，并",[851,2100,28],{"href":995},"”这方面，乔帮主和库克为苹果创造并实现的是：做最对的事，并把事情做到最对！",[827,2103,2104,2106],{},[830,2105,1715],{}," ：难道还有不太对的对的事情吗？你这是我们没对错的文化的一种体现吧？其实苹果就是一直坚持了“做对的事情”，其一直聚焦在“把对的事情做对”的长期结果就把事情做到了极致。（2015-03-23）",[827,2108,2109,2110,2112],{},"新浪财经：（转发环球市场播报《",[830,2111,842],{},"Q4营收利润双创新高 盘后一度涨超3%》）",[827,2114,2115,2116],{},"链接：",[851,2117,2118],{"href":2118,"rel":2119},"https:\u002F\u002Fxueqiu.com\u002F3338215700\u002F373897575",[2120],"nofollow",[827,2122,2123,2124,2126],{},"大道：",[830,2125,842],{},"厉害！（2026-1-30）",[827,2128,2129],{},"网友：最近一直在想苹果这个生意，如果某次发布的新产品失败了（市场反响不好），这对苹果的影响应该很大，这种生意还是好生意吗？虽然苹果现在的客户粘性很大，但是我想也经不起连续2年的新产品失败吧，而且谷歌这个对手也不是吃素的。",[827,2131,2132,2134],{},[830,2133,1028],{}," 不知道你一直在想什么。你见过在别的同行不停推新品的同时能够按兵不动一年营业额依然不掉的公司么？而且这还是在上个产品不那么轰动的前提下。如果这还不叫模式好，那什么叫模式好？现在轮到苹果出招了。顺便补充一下，凡是认为iphone5是失败产品的人都应该问一下在人类历史上有过几个单一产品比iphone5成功的？（2013-09-04）",[827,2136,1131,2137,2140],{},[830,2138,2139],{},"苹果不追求市场份额，cook（库克）关注的是使用量和满意度，对我很有启发的一点是cook经常用IOS使用者的使用流量、电子商务成交量来判断iphone和ipad的受欢迎程度，"," 这些指标苹果都远超安卓。总体上我感觉安卓用户用便宜的价格买了个“贵”产品而苹果的用户用更高的价格买了个“便宜”的产品。",[827,2142,2143],{},"现在智能手机处于从无到有的普及阶段，所以价格较低的安卓市场份额越来越大很正常，苹果会不断“蚕食”安卓的市场份额的，最终肯定不止15%，因为会有越来越多的安卓用户发现苹果的产品是最“便宜”的。",[827,2145,2146,2148],{},[830,2147,1028],{}," 随便说几个自己观察到的现象或事实：1，iphone的总量一直都是在上升；2，由于各种环境比较好，iphone在美国和日本的市场份额实际上是非常高的，大概在40%上下；3，消费能力强的地方明显iphone的使用比例高，中国也如此；",[827,2150,2151],{},"4，iphone使用者的忠诚度远高于Android，但比初期有所下降，大屏iphone出来后非常可能会让很多Android用户加入或回到iphone阵营；5，Android的使用流量的份额这几年实际上是上升的，一方面是因为Android确实改善了很多--看看我们的手机的制造工艺和有多好用就明白了，另一方面iphone没有大屏也可能是很重要的原因之一。",[827,2153,2154],{},"另外，日本韩国车这几十年也是在不断改善的，有多少习惯用欧洲车的人改用日本或韩国或者国产车了？有多少一开始用日本车或韩国车或国产车的人一旦有条件就改用欧洲车的？（2014-08-24）",[822,2156,2158],{"id":2157},"第四节-做什么与不做什么","第四节 做什么与不做什么",[827,2160,2161],{},"网友：哪位朋友能谈谈iWatch ?",[827,2163,2164,2166,2167,2169,2170,2172,2173,2175,2176,2178,2179,2181],{},[830,2165,1028],{}," 那还是一个传说，从何谈起？不过，关于",[830,2168,842],{},"的传说最搞笑的就是廉价Phone。有了这个传说后，接着就有了",[830,2171,842],{},"该不该这样做的争论。其实讨论",[830,2174,842],{},"该不该卖廉价iPhone的人大概都是不太懂",[830,2177,842],{},"的，因为",[830,2180,842],{},"的文化里根本就不会有这个争论。(2013-02-15)",[827,2183,2184,2185,2187],{},"同友：关于",[830,2186,842],{},"AR眼镜和汽车有什么可以分享的么？",[827,2189,2190,2191,2193,2194,2196],{},"我不知道",[830,2192,842],{},"在搞什么，但确实相信",[830,2195,842],{},"产品最终都会是精品。(2020-12-06)Vision Pro对喜欢它的用户而言是个“nice to have”的产品，而iPhone 则是“need have”。Vision Pro要上升到“need have”我猜可能需要10年。",[827,2198,2199],{},"我说10年的意思是需要很长的时间，就是短时间里概率很低的意思。(2024-06-29)",[827,2201,2202,2203,2205,2206,2208],{},"网友：Think different的理念是不是影响了",[830,2204,842],{},"更好地做到",[851,2207,53],{"href":857},"?",[827,2210,2211,2213,2214,2216],{},[830,2212,1028],{}," Think different其实非常了不起，长期而言力量是巨大的。Think different 其实是内含",[851,2215,53],{"href":857},"的，因为那是前提。(2020-11-27)",[827,2218,2219,2221,2222,2224,2225,2227,2228,2230,2231,2233,2234,2236,2237,2239,2240,2242,2243,2245],{},[830,2220,842],{},"进入一个产品的时机往往不是因为",[830,2223,842],{},"在择时，而是因为",[830,2226,842],{},"在这之前还没准备好或者说",[830,2229,842],{},"还不满意自己的产品。",[830,2232,842],{},"推出产品的最重要的基点是“我到底能为用户做什么”。很多年前，网上疯传",[830,2235,842],{},"会推",[830,2238,842],{},"电视，我说那么大一台电视，",[830,2241,842],{},"能做什么？结果",[830,2244,842],{},"确实没推。(2023-06-13)",[827,2247,2248,2250,2251,2253,2254,2256,2257,2259,2260,2262],{},[830,2249,842],{},"的角度一般是看能不能给消费者带来点什么，而不是生意上能不能成功。根据这个观点，我推断出",[830,2252,842],{},"不会推",[830,2255,842],{},"电视机，前些年我还认为",[830,2258,842],{},"车大概率不会在近些年见到，除非技术条件达到了",[830,2261,842],{},"的要求。(2024-02-05)",[827,2264,2265,2267],{},[830,2266,842],{},"果然取消了电动车项目！(2024-02-28)",[827,2269,2270,2271,2273],{},"网友：大道老师，您觉得",[830,2272,842],{},"会出折叠屏吗？",[827,2275,2276,2277,2279],{},"大道：我觉得有可能的。",[830,2278,842],{},"的iPhone air也许是在为这个做准备吧。（2025-11-21）",[827,2281,2282],{},"网友X：这个疑问的发端其实是最近大家针对5c不便宜讨论得挺多。很多人的质问是：“说好的廉价手机呢？”不少媒体评论说5c未能达到争取低价位市场的目的，导致这几天股价下跌。",[827,2284,2285],{},"至于我自己，从第一次听到传言说苹果推廉价手机的时候就觉得哪里不对。没有具体的原因分析说它不对，只是朦朦胧胧觉得这个策略是个大俗手。所以最后看到5c的价格反倒是松了一口气。",[827,2287,2288],{},"但朦胧的感觉总要转化成比较扎实的分析才好，所以还是想听听学长您的判断：如果苹果前几天推的就是一款2000出头的手机，对于整个公司会有哪些方面的影响？",[827,2290,2291,2293],{},[830,2292,1715],{}," ：听着像如果苹果不是苹果，苹果将会是什么。（2013-09-17）",[827,2295,2296],{},"网友：如果苹果现在出个大屏手机，我会毫不犹豫的冲去买一部。下个月会有点儿钱到位，根据以前的经验是到位之前股价会起来，买完之后再下跌，看看这次灵不灵。",[827,2298,2299,2301],{},[830,2300,1028],{}," 我们看到大屏的同时苹果也早就看到了。技术上，做个大屏手机对苹果而言是完全没难度的。所以我猜想苹果可能有什么东西是他们认为可以超越大屏的。至于会是什么，等一等就会知道了。（2013-03-05）",[827,2303,2304],{},"网友：估计出个4-5寸的大屏IPHONE，就4，5，6字头了。",[827,2306,2307,2309],{},[830,2308,1028],{}," 个人现在的感觉是苹果大概不会出一个大家想象的那种大屏了，因为如果苹果想出大屏的话，应该早就出了。苹果大概会有一个不一样的解决方案，但可以满足想用大屏的人的真实需求。（2013-04-20）",[827,2311,2312],{},"网友：好像很多投资者和消费者，都对苹果的大屏有很高的期待，投资者的期望可不予理会，消费者显而易见的期望为啥千呼万唤不出来？请教大道解读背后的逻辑。",[827,2314,2315,2317],{},[830,2316,1028],{}," 大概苹果对自己的大屏还不够满意吧。估计下一代iphone里一定会有大屏的，大概一年内？估计以后iphone会同时推若干个尺寸的。（2013-09-11）",[827,2319,2320,2322],{},[830,2321,1028],{}," 苹果一定会推大屏的，大概明年出吧。（2013-09-14）",[827,2324,2325],{},"网友J：苹果出大屏幕我就会换掉5。其实国人喜欢花哨，喜欢炫耀，偏偏苹果在这方面不知道是不屑于做还是没来得及做，总之还有很大很大的空间。美国人做事太实在了，做那些技术含量高的费事不怎么讨巧的东西，比如国内360做的引擎，那么花哨，实际还是建立在微软的引擎上边，讨了那么大的巧。",[827,2327,2328,2330],{},[830,2329,1028],{}," 如果你用10年的角度看，也许你会容易理解苹果的做法。（2013-09-14）",[827,2332,2333],{},"网友：在腾讯上看到的：",[827,2335,2336],{},"库克说：“乔布斯知道苹果应该进入那些只有我们的技术能够控制的领域。”",[827,2338,2339],{},[830,2340,2341],{},"库克解释了为何在三星和其他手机制造商推出大屏智能手机多年以后，苹果却等待如此长时间才推出类似产品的理由。主持人罗斯问库克，苹果推出iphone6是否为应对三星挑战。库克给出否定回答，并说：“坦白说……我们从多年以前就开始研制大屏手机。我们只是从未制造过大屏iphone。我们集中全力，争取推出一款更好的手机。”",[827,2343,2344],{},[830,2345,2346],{},"库克说，苹果在出售大屏手机前，需要确保为更大屏手机开发适合的显示器、电池以及软件。比如，苹果已经为大屏手机开发出单手模式，即屏幕顶部的用户界面可下滑至位于用户大拇指范围内，以便实现单手操作。",[827,2348,2349],{},"库克的回答与其2012年参加AllThingsD大会时，被问及苹果为何不推出更大iphone的回答如出一辙。当时，苹果最好的手机是iphone4S，只有相对较小的3.5寸屏。库克说，苹果认为，对于iphone用户来说，能够单手使用手机非常重要。他还说，未推出大屏手机还有电池寿命等因素考虑。",[827,2351,2352,2354],{},[830,2353,1028],{}," 现在终于明白为什么别人一问大屏库克就说单手使用很重要，别的当时他也不能说。（2014-09-14）",[827,2356,2357,2359,2360,2362],{},[830,2358,1028],{}," 虽然iphone早就有了无线充电，但AirPower出不来还是有点可惜。终于见到",[830,2361,842],{},"掉一次链子了，不过这比强行推出来好。（2019-03-30）",[827,2364,2365,2366,2368],{},"网友：Macbook Pro真是让人失望啊，",[830,2367,842],{},"的文化貌似在笔记本上一直是停滞的。",[827,2370,2371,1148,2373],{},[830,2372,1028],{},[830,2374,2375],{},"产品最重要的是有些人喜欢而不是所有人都喜欢的。(2016-10-30)",[827,2377,1131,2378,2380],{},[830,2379,842],{},"分拆，是否更利于旗下的子产品部发展壮大？",[827,2382,2383,2385],{},[830,2384,1028],{}," 不知道你是不是觉得汽车的4个轮子拆开来跑，车会跑得更快？(2013-02-21)",[827,2387,2388],{},"网友：请教段大哥从苹果的哪些做法中能看出下一年中推大屏的可能性很大？沒推出廉价版苹果验证了苹果的企业文化，但是否想推大屏自己看不出来。",[827,2390,2391,2393],{},[830,2392,1028],{}," 我知道大屏市场有多大，苹果当然也知道！只要在苹果的原则范围内和能力圈内，苹果没道理不推。不过，我可能快两年前就说过苹果必推大屏，没想到等了这么久。5s出来后，苹果大概就可以抽出手来推大屏了，所以我认为苹果一年内就会推的。（2013-09-16）",[827,2395,2396],{},"网友：我这样理解苹果，现在苹果已经不是靠一种新产品就可以打败的了，良好的企业文化（用户体验）、生态链（app应用商店、电脑和手机、平板共享平台）等等，这些都决定了苹果的增长在很长的时间都是有很大的确定性的，对苹果没有信心，是还不够不了解苹果，当然也有可能会有意外，科技界本来就奇迹很多。",[827,2398,2399,2401],{},[830,2400,1028],{}," 其实革命性的产品并不会贴个标签在上面。ipad mini绝对是个革命性的产品，大家会看到的。另外，苹果的产品是非常细致的。三星最近据说要推8吋的平板，比苹果7.9吋的大一点。别的不说，有一点可能就会很有趣。ipad mini我是可以放进裤子口袋的，但只是刚刚好放进去，个人觉得ipad mini可能是测过的。8吋的很可能放不下（2013-03-01）",[827,2403,1131,2404,2407],{},[830,2405,2406],{},"乔布斯","说的Think different是什么意思？",[827,2409,2410,2412,2413,2415,2416,2418,2419,2421],{},[830,2411,1028],{}," Think different是不从众的意思。这个说法并不完全对。正确的说法是",[851,2414,53],{"href":857},"。当年",[830,2417,842],{},"一直不出大屏手机就是个例子。消费者需要大屏，但",[830,2420,842],{},"Think different，结果晚了3年多。(2020-11-26)",[827,2423,2424,2425,2427,2428,2430,2431,2433,2434,2437,2438,2440,2441,2443],{},"其实大屏手机也从另外一个角度说明了",[830,2426,842],{},"厉害的地方。可能因为",[830,2429,2406],{},"说过不要大屏，所以",[830,2432,842],{},"犹豫了一下，但消费者的需求摆在那里，所以最后他们还是用不同的办法想通了。我和",[830,2435,2436],{},"方三文","曾经打过一个小赌(没赌任何东西)。",[830,2439,2436],{},"问：你觉得",[830,2442,842],{},"一定会出大屏手机吗？我说：他们一定会的！果然3年后他们就出了。",[827,2445,2446,2448,2449,2451,2452,2454,2455,2457],{},[830,2447,842],{},"大屏手机出得晚给了我很多时间去思考",[830,2450,842],{},"和买",[830,2453,842],{},"，不然我可能要少买很多",[830,2456,842],{},"哈。(2020-11-27)",[827,2459,2460,2461,2463,2464,2466,2467,2469,2470,2472,2473,2475],{},"网友：记得一开始传",[830,2462,842],{},"要做电动车的时候，大道说过：“",[830,2465,842],{},"不太可能做电动车。”",[830,2468,842],{},"花了那么多时间、人力、物力研究电动车，最终还是放弃了。",[830,2471,842],{},"真是",[851,2474,222],{"href":1038},"啊。大道说的，“长远看不合适的东西最合适的办法就是现在就停下来！”",[827,2477,2478,2480,2481,2483,2484,2486],{},[830,2479,1028],{}," 10多年前曾经盛传",[830,2482,842],{},"要推电视机，有业内资深人士甚至告诉我他已经看到样机了。我说，你可能不太了解",[830,2485,842],{},"，样机不说明任何问题。同理，差不多的时期，有人问我iPhone会不会出大屏，我说一定会的。尽管后来还是等了3年。(2024-03-02)",[827,2488,2489,2490,2492],{},"网友：您对安卓的前景怎么看呢？安卓做高端有前途吗？另外您觉得",[830,2491,842],{},"会不会着力占领廉价手机市场？这样做的话对他们好处多还是坏处多？",[827,2494,2495,2497,2498,2500],{},[830,2496,1028],{}," 在相当长的时间里，安卓的量依然会是大的。不能说安卓做高端如何，但某个",[851,2499,141],{"href":1333},"用安卓做个很贵的手机出来是很可能的，会买的人当然要叫那个高端了。另外，在安卓里也有高低端之分。",[827,2502,2503,2505,2506,2508],{},[830,2504,842],{},"大概永远都不会专门做所谓的廉价手机市场，对你提出这个问题感到有点意外，说明你对企业的理解已经和大众很接近了。",[830,2507,842],{},"的策略一直都在那里摆着呢，做最好的产品，让前面的产品做入门级以及提高级的产品。大约3年内，当iPhone7出来的时候，iPhone5c就会变成入门级的产品，大概会卖到2000出头，那个时候会有点好看哈。",[827,2510,2511,2512,2514],{},"另外，iPhone5s绝对是划时代的，不知道为什么那么多人会视而不见？我可以肯定的是，",[830,2513,1075],{},"里很多人要开始“熬夜多压力大”了。(2013-09-15)",[827,2516,2517,2518,2520],{},"网友：大道如何看",[830,2519,842],{},"6000亿美元投资这步棋？",[827,2522,2523,2525,2526,2528],{},[830,2524,1028],{}," AI……（2025-08-08）（",[830,2527,842],{},"）耳机可以同声翻译非常酷，驴友们有福了。手表可以看到血压变化也很好！（2025-09-10）",[827,2530,2531,2532,2535],{},"网友：做AI，有点偏离大道所说的本份了。\n大道：你对",[851,2533,12],{"href":2534},"\u002Fbenfen","误解太大了吧？！做AI才是该做的事情啊。再不做好AI，就会被AI淘汰的。每个人都可能需要认真了解和学习AI的。（2025-10-31）",[827,2537,2538,2539,2541,2542,2545,2546,2548],{},"网友：大道先生怎么看",[830,2540,1580],{},"可能采用",[830,2543,2544],{},"Google","的Gemini大模型驱动siri，并私有化部署在",[830,2547,842],{},"那边。我感觉很厉害的样子。",[827,2550,2551],{},"大道：Gemini确实更好用一些。（2025-11-04）",[827,2553,2554,2555,2557],{},"网友：段老师您好，您看好",[830,2556,842],{},"的折叠屏手机吗？",[827,2559,2560],{},"大道：还没看到如何知道？（2025-11-25）",[827,2562,2563,2564,2566,2567,2569],{},"网友：老段，当年你预测",[830,2565,842],{},"会做大屏，现在",[830,2568,842],{},"会不会做折叠屏，从体验来看，效果也可以。",[827,2571,2572],{},"大道：如果能让消费者明显改善体验，他们是很可能会做的。大屏看起来似乎接近成熟了。（2026-02-09）",[822,2574,2576],{"id":2575},"第五节-与安卓三星的竞争","第五节 与安卓、三星的竞争",[827,2578,2579],{},"网友：当年做PC时，封闭的苹果输给开放的微软+IBM，今天的苹果一样封闭，难道它一定能赢谷歌＋三星（等等）吗？",[827,2581,2582,2584],{},[830,2583,1028],{}," 我觉得不一样。你用一用产品就明白了，不是一回事。（2011-01-23）",[827,2586,2587],{},"网友q：想明白了。他们是真正把消费者放在第一位的了。苹果这种强大，是一种持续性的竞争能力吗？",[827,2589,2590,2593],{},[830,2591,2592],{},"段永平：难道不是吗？"," （2011-10-21）",[827,2595,2596],{},"网友：GALAXY NOTE吧，屏幕很大啊。的确，iphone是领先很多年的产品，做得很极致，男女都适合用。唯一的问题是，苹果还能不能继续给我们惊喜？",[827,2598,2599,2601],{},[830,2600,1028],{}," 是的，大得有点恐怖，但用段时间后就觉得大得不是那么有必要。（2012-03-03）",[827,2603,1131,2604,2606],{},[830,2605,842],{},"是否会盛极而衰？",[827,2608,2609,2611],{},[830,2610,1028],{}," 多年来人们一直这么说，可他们就是不明白。(2012-03-29)",[827,2613,2614,2615,2617],{},"网友：您评估",[830,2616,842],{},"的时候，有没有担心有一天会有新的颠覆性的技术出现，取代现有的东西？",[827,2619,2620,2622,2623,2625],{},[830,2621,1028],{}," 没有天上掉下来的技术。如果真的有重大的技术变革，我相信我是能够看得见的，而且我认为这种变化会大概率地来自",[830,2624,842],{},"。(2014-02-06)",[827,2627,2628,2630],{},[830,2629,1028],{}," 瑞士手表业确实躺枪了。fitbit这类产品估计也难过了。我的意思是以后人们大概不太会再买瑞士的那种表了，冲击很大啊。（2014-09-10）",[827,2632,2633],{},"网友：以后会不会有新技术代替手机？",[827,2635,2636,1148,2638],{},[830,2637,1028],{},[830,2639,2640],{},"一定会的，但不会很快。你需要想明白的是谁，什么时候，等等。(2015-11-10)",[827,2642,2643],{},"网友：大道怎么看Meta Orion，会是手机之后的下一代爆品吗？",[827,2645,2646,2648,2649,2651],{},[830,2647,1028],{}," 他们完全不是",[830,2650,842],{},"的对手。我用过他们以前的产品，确实不是一个级别的。(2024-09-28)",[827,2653,2654,2656],{},[830,2655,1028],{}," 我前几天去买了个三星的最大屏的手机，认真用了几天，实在是不习惯。虽然也有些东西还不错，但整体体验和iphone还是有相当差距滴。很难想象用惯iphone的人会转到android。所以库克讲的“蚕食”还是很有道理的。（2012-03-03）",[827,2658,2659],{},"网友：三星各个尺寸该出的都出完了，现在该轮到三星的新机被人说没有创意了。难道以后要出五边形、然后各个尺寸再轮一遍？",[827,2661,2662,2664],{},[830,2663,1028],{}," 好像该轮到苹果出招了。（2013-03-15）",[827,2666,2667],{},"引用：【三星 Galaxy S4智能手机销售不及投资者预期】",[827,2669,2670],{},"三星遭遇黑色六月。三星股价整月下跌12.31%，市值蒸发253亿美元，相当于索尼市值。Galaxy S4智能手机销售不及投资者预期。分析师表示，“消费者找不到更好的理由购买S4，因为它与前代产品没太大的区别。",[827,2672,2673,2675,2676,2679],{},[830,2674,1028],{}," 其实说喜欢什么很难，但说不喜欢什么要容易得多。我经常会用几种安卓手机，虽然大屏看起来似乎应该实用些，但我自己的体验总是想赶紧换回iphone去。",[830,2677,2678],{},"前段时间刚刚试了一下S4，真是开始对这家公司佩服起来，尤其是那个眼睛移动功能，这么不成熟的东西也敢拿出来卖，以后不干了吗？"," （2013-07-03）",[827,2681,2682,2684],{},[830,2683,1028],{}," 我怎么看着像是一群小孩在某个地方互殴，老大则在另一个地方忙着自己的事。（2012-03-01）",[827,2686,2687],{},"网友A：段总：关于手机行业向您请教。“对于一群互殴的小孩”（您的原话），应是指应用安卓系统或微软系统的绝大多数手机厂商吧。他们已经沦为装配厂商，拼拼硬件配置和渠道。问题是这种没有太大差异化的产品（包括外观），最终厂家能生存下来靠什么呢？",[827,2689,2690,2692],{},[830,2691,1028],{}," 除苹果以外的卖智能手机的最后的结局可能会有点卖pc的，多数大概都生存不下来。（2012-03-08）",[827,2694,2695],{},"网友C：大道，看到你在博客中说“除苹果以外的卖智能手机的最后的结局可能会有点卖pc的，多数大概都生存不下来”，那你对你自己的公司怎么定位？",[827,2697,2698,2700],{},[830,2699,1028],{}," 有一天我们也有可能在这个行业生存不下去的，gphone的差异化未来会越来越难。当然，我们也有可能会成为生存下来的不多的几家之一。（2012-03-10）",[827,2702,2703],{},"网友L：现在华为也大举推广智能机了，是不是会挤压其他厂商？",[827,2705,2706,2708],{},[830,2707,1028],{}," 彼此挤压吧。这也是导致最后大多数人都没钱赚的原因之一。（2012-03-10）",[827,2710,2711,2712,867,2714,2208],{},"网友：您如何看",[830,2713,1075],{},[830,2715,874],{},[827,2717,2718,1148,2720,867,2722,2724,2725,2727],{},[830,2719,1028],{},[830,2721,1075],{},[830,2723,874],{},"其实不太好，属于疲于奔命的那种。",[830,2726,1075],{},"的问题在于其实没有产品追求，是生意导向的公司，焦点太发散，时间长了大概率会出问题。不过韩国企业非常努力，会把危机延长到比较大才出来，这点和日本企业比较像。",[827,2729,2730,2731,2733,2734,2736],{},"看",[830,2732,1075],{},"和",[830,2735,842],{},"有点像看篮球里美国队对其他队的比赛，场面上很激烈，其实差距很大。(2013-02-13)",[827,2738,2739,2740,2742,2743,2745],{},"网友：目前智能机市场，一种模式是类似",[830,2741,1075],{},"这种“多机型”模式，另外一种是类似",[830,2744,842],{},"的“精品”模式。哪一种模式更好，为什么？",[827,2747,2748,2750,2751,2753,2754,2756],{},[830,2749,1028],{}," 有本事做成",[830,2752,842],{},"的会愿意做",[830,2755,1075],{},"吗？(2013-08-02)",[827,2758,2759],{},"网友A：这一点不太明白，我对于苹果最担心的就是安卓的竞争。虽然进入IOS系统的用户不太关心安卓的变化。但是安卓的进步对于新进入IOS的用户数量有很大影响，并且安卓进步很快，那么口碑会好，而口碑对于新用户甚至老用户，影响会很大，是这样吗？",[827,2761,2762,2764],{},[830,2763,1028],{}," 再过几年你就明白了。",[827,2766,2767,2769,2770,2772,2773,1075,2776,2779,2780,2782,2783,2785],{},[830,2768,1028],{}," 这只是个时间问题，同时也让",[830,2771,1075],{},"很难受，",[830,2774,2775],{},"因为这会逼着",[830,2777,2778],{},"不停地追加投资在设备上，最后赚一堆过时的设备"," 。也许不用10年，",[830,2781,1075],{},"的日子就会比现在那些日本的老牌家电公司难受。一直没搞懂为什么日元那么强，哪天日元突然疲软的话，",[830,2784,1075],{},"可能马上就难过了。（2012-08-31）",[827,2787,2788,2789,2792,2793,2795,2796,2798,2799,2801,2802,2804,2805,2807],{},"网友H：",[830,2790,2791],{},"谷歌","的安卓和",[830,2794,842],{},"iPhone的竞争关系就像大众和宝马奔驰的竞争一样，虽然都是做手机，用户群不一样。用了",[830,2797,842],{},"的东西，再用安卓的，感觉就是糙，细节很粗糙。",[830,2800,2791],{},"发布了Chrome浏览器的移动版本，竟然率先在",[830,2803,842],{},"的平板iPad和手机iPhone上发布，安卓平台上竟然没有。这事挺有意思的，难道",[830,2806,2791],{},"的人也知道哪个平台的用户价值更大？",[827,2809,2810,1148,2812,2814,2815,2817,2818,2820],{},[830,2811,1028],{},[830,2813,842],{},"倒是像卖车的，一年出一款。",[830,2816,1075],{},"像",[830,2819,901],{},"，结局可能也像，不信过10-15年再看。（2012-06-30）",[827,2822,2823,2825],{},[830,2824,1028],{}," 今天有事去costco，顺便（下决心）买了个htc的android phone。回家花了一个小时鼓捣这玩意儿。用过iphone以后觉得android phone用起来真是觉得有点痛苦，不过有些功能还可以。（2011-04-18）",[827,2827,2828],{},"网友：android手机会是苹果的一个比较大的威胁，现在的android的手机已经不比苹果的差多少了。苹果的强大在于有一个统一的平台，这是android所没有的。",[827,2830,2831,2833],{},[830,2832,1028],{}," 说明你还是不明白谁是谁的威胁。（2012-01-25）",[827,2835,2836],{},"网友：大道会不会变成拿锤子的人？什么消息都能解读成苹果的利好",[827,2838,2839,2841],{},[830,2840,1028],{}," 我比较客观。我说的这个东西是我们在这行多年的体会，以后你就明白了。（2012-03-19）",[827,2843,2844],{},"网友K：get close，maybe it is now.（更近了，可能就是现在）",[827,2846,2847,2849],{},[830,2848,1028],{}," people have kept saying that for years，they just don't get it.（2012-03-29）",[827,2851,2852],{},"网友W：有可能是苹果也不出奇。",[827,2854,2855,2857],{},[830,2856,1028],{}," 以前我们做VCD时，有人向我挑战说DVD将来会取代VCD，我说你觉得将来卖DVD的会是谁？（2015-11-11）",[827,2859,2860],{},"04．引用：（OPPO）（2018-08-14）",[827,2862,2863],{},"三星手机平均售价跌至全球第五被中国品牌超越",[827,2865,2866],{},"市场研究机构Counterpoint Research周二发布的数据显示，今年二季度全球手机品牌平均零售价（ASP）排名三星跌至第5，被华为、OPPO等中国品牌赶超……",[827,2868,2869,2871],{},[830,2870,1028],{}," 想起今年五月底偶遇老巴，听他讲起他小时候曾经喝百事可乐的故事。老巴说以前百事可乐卖的价钱只有可口可乐的一半，所以当然选百事可乐啊。我接着说，那苹果的moat可比可口可乐宽啊，android卖iPhone一半以下的价钱，但该买iPhone的人还是会照买的。老巴似乎很同意我的说法哈。",[827,2873,2874],{},"这条新闻里android主流品牌的平均价目前只有iPhone的1\u002F3左右了。",[827,2876,2877],{},"我本人是两种手机都用的，全中文环境下，我们手机有不少地方似乎确实好用一些，看来iPhone目前中国的本土化工作应该还是有蛮大的改善空间的。（2018-08-14）",[827,2879,2880,2882,2883,2885,2886,2888,2889,2891,2892,867,2894,2896,2897,2899],{},[830,2881,842],{},"厉害的不仅仅是硬件，这是所有其他竞争对手没辙的地方。",[830,2884,1075],{},"顶多不过是新的",[830,2887,901],{},"而已，对",[830,2890,842],{},"没有威胁。",[830,2893,842],{},[830,2895,874],{},"实在是强大，其他的“对手”已经难以撼动",[830,2898,842],{},"了。(2012-02-05)",[827,2901,2902],{},"网友：苹果表现为一个摇滚巨星，在外在光环的背后，其实有一个强大的实力，这是容易被人忽视的地方。1）它在专业领域中关于价格、物料成本控制具有强有力的优势，在产品上足可以发动一个价格战争。貌似高端的形象之上，IPAD 3的产品价格其实是相当便宜的，与对手的产品价格相当，苹果有能力真正打一个价格战。",[827,2904,2905],{},"2）苹果产品除外表时尚，而且功能吸引人，品牌卓越这些优势下，容易被人忽视的是设计、制造和供应链管理。举例说，一般让山寨厂商把iphone零件全买下来，它的成本就和iphone成品价格相当，iPad成本比这低得多，仍然能保证获得巨额利润。iphone一代到四代价格不变，却能越来越大规模的零件升级这一点极具优势，那么相信iPad3有一个光明的前景。",[827,2907,2908],{},"只要iPad 3不出现重大纰漏，类似当年的iphone4死亡易握，它的销售前景极好。苹果公司继续保持领先优势。",[827,2910,2911,2913,2914,2917],{},[830,2912,1028],{}," 其实苹果的强大实力是不容易也不应该被忽视的，除非你有意去忽视，但鸵鸟的办法不会有任何帮助。",[830,2915,2916],{},"任何一个被苹果直接或间接、现在或未来影响到的行业里的企业大概早晚都要面对苹果的强大实力的"," 。",[827,2919,2920,2923],{},[830,2921,2922],{},"随便举几个已经受到影响的行业或产品吧：手机、电脑、手提电脑、游戏（包括网游）、游戏机、中低端相机和录像机、音乐、电影、书、电视、网络、运营商、所有相关产品的零售、几乎所有的电子消费品……欢迎补充"," 。找到在苹果生态系统里生存的方式也许比挑战苹果要来的更现实一些。能够避开苹果也许是另一个办法。（2012-03-12）",[827,2925,2926],{},"13．引用：众强围攻，iPad3遭遇下马威",[827,2928,2929],{},"正因于此，iPad才能成为平板电脑行业的神话。当iPad成为一个神话后，引来了不少围剿者，三星、摩托罗拉、华为和联想等纷纷推出平板电脑，而联想更是喊出将iPad拉下神坛的豪言壮语。在MWC上，三星发布了又一款10.1英寸平板电脑……",[827,2931,2932,2934],{},[830,2933,1028],{}," 如果真有的话，那就不是蚕食了。（2012-05-13）",[827,2936,2937],{},"网友：为什么安卓的体验总是差强人意？",[827,2939,2940,2942,2943,2945,2946,2948,2949,2951],{},[830,2941,1028],{}," 安卓本身占用资源大，比如如果都是两核或四核的手机，表现就要差不少，加上大家看到的",[830,2944,842],{},"的东西是几十年积累下来的，安卓要全面达到恐怕不太可能。但是，安卓的表现其实已经很不错了，已经比当年",[830,2947,901],{},"智能机的感觉强了许多倍，某些使用方面和",[830,2950,842],{},"相比各有特色也是一定会有的，而且价钱还可以便宜很多。",[827,2953,2954,2955,2958,2959,2961,2962,867,2964,2966,2967,2733,2969,2971],{},"未来安卓手机之间的",[851,2956,146],{"href":2957},"\u002Fchayihua","会越来越小，",[830,2960,1075],{},"的价钱要挺住不容易。",[830,2963,842],{},[851,2965,171],{"href":2009},"会保住特别喜欢或习惯的用户，所以受安卓的影响不会像想象的那么大。不过，有",[830,2968,842],{},[830,2970,1075],{},"在上面顶着价格，其他卖安卓智能机的企业应该还有一段不错的小日子。(2013-01-23)",[827,2973,2974],{},"网友：我是果粉，家里用苹果和其他品牌的产品。现在，苹果的竞争对手们在产品本身上都向苹果学习，无论从有形的技术和无形的苹果灵魂，就产品而言，无论技术、外观、感觉和吸引的手段，苹果打100分，其他品牌如安卓、WP7打85分。但是，苹果公司在品牌上有很强的优势，很高的忠诚度，这些是其他品牌难以追赶的。",[827,2976,2977,2979],{},[830,2978,1028],{}," 对于价格不那么敏感的用户而言，谁愿意买85分的东西而不是100分的东西，尤其是每天都要拿在手上用的手机呢？（2012-02-03）",[827,2981,2982,2983,2985],{},"网友：请问大道如何看待马斯克在Joe Rogan访谈里提到的手机可能在5年后消失，对",[830,2984,842],{},"的看法会有改变吗？",[827,2987,2988,2989,2991],{},"大道：如果这个事情真的发生了，你很可能会发现你手里拿的还是",[830,2990,842],{},"的东西。（2025-11-02）",[827,2993,2994,2995,2997,2998],{},"网友：oppo的",[851,2996,12],{"href":2534},"文化，看能不能超越",[830,2999,842],{},[827,3001,2123,3002,3004,3005,3007],{},[830,3003,842],{},"也很",[851,3006,12],{"href":2534},"的。（2025-11-03）",[827,3009,3010],{},"网友：大道您好，请问AI能不能制造出超越iOS的系统？或者颠覆iOS系统？",[827,3012,3013,3014,3016],{},"大道：我觉得AI有可能会降低iOS生态的重要性。比如对那些主要只用微信的人们而言，微信实际上就降低了",[830,3015,842],{},"生态的重要性，因为在Android上用微信和在iPhone上用微信的差异不是非常大。（2025-11-24）",[827,3018,3019],{},"网友：dram和nand的涨价对安卓机的影响怎么看，特别是非旗舰机？",[827,3021,3022,3023,3025],{},"大道：应该是really bad，成本会涨很多，还可能拿不到货。对",[830,3024,842],{},"也会有影响，但可能小一点。（2026-01-28）",[827,3027,3028],{},"网友：在雪球网看到您说过“顺便说下，我们公司是卖andriod手机的，我想我真的能理解andriod的生命力在哪里。” 可否详细说说您对安卓生命力的理解？",[827,3030,3031,3033],{},[830,3032,1028],{}," 移动市场这么大，没买苹果的怎么着先的买个安卓吧？长期来讲，苹果产品很难超过30%的，余下70%基本上就是安卓。未来10年移动设备至少能卖个50亿（我觉得能到100亿以上）以上吧。（2013-03-03）",[827,3035,3036],{},"网友：苹果的威力——“十年生死两茫茫，安卓兴，联发亡。低端市场，处处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，诺记死，苹果王。摩托三星忽还乡，拼低端，实在忙。中兴亲，华为新，魅族创新强。HTC出机皇，日日换大梁。手机业，已无常，全都忙转行，山寨泪千行…… ”将来会怎样呢？",[827,3038,3039,3041],{},[830,3040,1715],{}," ：呵呵，受到苹果影响的远远不止你提到的这些手机公司。比如所有卖电脑尤其是手提电脑的公司受到的影响巨大。甚至连网游公司都间接受到很大影响。仔细想想会觉得很有趣的。（2012-02-25）",[827,3043,3044],{},"引用：苹果正在想尽一切办法摆脱对三星零部件供应的依赖",[827,3046,3047],{},"尽管苹果与三星在法庭上打得不可开交，但事实上，法庭之外，苹果现在每年却不得不要支付给三星的零部件采购费用超过70亿美元。苹果是三星的最大客户，在其2011年总额1090亿美元的收入中占比达7.6%。这势必让苹果非常不甘心。在库克领导下，苹果正在竭力摆…….",[827,3049,3050],{},"引用：为什么手机厂商开发布会都喜欢硬怼苹果？",[827,3052,3053],{},"苹果在全球智能手机出货量当中并非排名第一，但在高端智能手机市场上，苹果却是毋庸置疑的NO.1，当然，有些手机在售价上确实高于苹果，比如8848、motoZ等，其售价都高于苹果，可市场地位远远弱于苹果，苹果就像一座丰碑一样，矗立在众多手机厂商的面前……",[827,3055,3056,3058],{},[830,3057,1028],{}," 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