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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":571,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":26,"date":9,"description":573,"editor":2450,"extension":2451,"meta":2452,"navigation":2453,"order":574,"path":2454,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2455,"seoDescription":573,"seoTitle":2456,"slug":572,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":1287,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2457,"sourceStatus":2458,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2459,"stem":2460,"summary":573,"tags":2461,"type":435,"updatedAt":2465,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"__hash__":2466,"_collection":2467},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-apple-03.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2442},"minimark",[821,826,833,838,843,848,853,859,865,868,873,879,882,887,890,895,900,903,908,911,932,942,948,953,956,962,967,972,975,981,989,993,996,1001,1004,1007,1014,1019,1024,1027,1030,1033,1038,1041,1044,1047,1050,1053,1056,1061,1066,1071,1077,1080,1085,1091,1094,1097,1100,1103,1106,1112,1118,1123,1126,1131,1147,1153,1158,1161,1164,1169,1183,1191,1194,1197,1202,1205,1210,1216,1225,1231,1250,1253,1256,1259,1264,1267,1272,1275,1280,1283,1302,1313,1318,1324,1329,1334,1339,1344,1349,1354,1360,1365,1368,1371,1374,1379,1384,1394,1397,1404,1408,1411,1416,1419,1422,1425,1428,1431,1440,1449,1460,1466,1469,1477,1483,1486,1491,1497,1513,1528,1540,1543,1556,1559,1562,1565,1568,1573,1576,1579,1582,1595,1608,1611,1616,1655,1661,1667,1676,1682,1685,1703,1706,1709,1714,1717,1720,1725,1735,1745,1748,1751,1754,1760,1766,1771,1777,1780,1785,1788,1791,1796,1802,1805,1808,1811,1817,1820,1829,1832,1836,1839,1844,1847,1855,1858,1865,1868,1871,1876,1881,1884,1887,1890,1893,1899,1902,1905,1913,1916,1919,1922,1930,1939,1947,1953,1956,1961,1964,1969,1974,1994,2000,2008,2011,2026,2034,2037,2040,2047,2053,2056,2059,2068,2074,2080,2083,2086,2089,2092,2098,2101,2107,2110,2116,2121,2124,2127,2130,2135,2140,2145,2150,2155,2158,2163,2166,2171,2174,2188,2191,2195,2200,2203,2215,2230,2242,2247,2252,2258,2261,2273,2276,2282,2297,2300,2303,2308,2313,2316,2331,2340,2358,2364,2370,2376,2385,2391,2397,2403,2406,2415,2418,2421,2424,2427,2430,2433,2436,2439],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-2011年为什么买","第一节 2011年为什么买",[827,828,829],"p",{},[830,831,832],"strong",{},"乔布斯刚刚再次请病假没多久，记得当时苹果刚刚发布完earning report，自己突然悟到实际上没有乔布斯的苹果会依然继续强大。我就是这个时候开始大量买入苹果的。",[827,834,835],{},[830,836,837],{},"两年过去，没有发现当初买的理由有任何变化，所以没有过任何卖的想法。",[827,839,840],{},[830,841,842],{},"在雪球上我说过自己的观点：300多的苹果很便宜，400多的苹果也很便宜，500多的苹果依然不贵，今天再次重申一下。",[827,844,845],{},[830,846,847],{},"个人观点，巴菲特说的the right kind of business，with right people，at right price这三点在苹果上体现的非常充分，拿着能睡好觉。the right kind of business指的就是好的生意模式，好的生意模式建立在强大的企业文化上。",[827,849,850],{},[830,851,852],{},"本人喜欢苹果生意模式的很重要的一点来自于自己在消费电子20多年的体验，苹果是我一直梦寐以求但似乎难以达到的生意模式，现在居然可以就这么实现了，why not？",[827,854,855,858],{},[830,856,857],{},"有一个小小的发现：我发现多数关心苹果的投资者（无论多空）都有点太在意苹果眼前的东西了，其实一两个季度的表现没那么重要。"," （2013-01-22）",[827,860,861,864],{},[830,862,863],{},"段永平："," 今年的第一个投资的大决策就是在一月二十一号买进了苹果，把去年赚的钱都放进去了。",[827,866,867],{},"从很久以前就开始或多或少地关心苹果，但就是没认真分析过，大概是因为自己老是满仓的缘故。1.21由于股权到期日，要释放了不少资金出来，在压力下突然想明白了。",[827,869,870],{},[830,871,872],{},"买苹果的灵感其实是来自博友的提问。记得前段时间我在这用苹果举过一个什么股价叫便宜的例子：如果你觉得苹果值5000亿的话，那3000亿就是便宜，虽然他曾经只有50亿的市值。",[827,874,875,878],{},[830,876,877],{},"其实我个人认为，苹果有可能会是地球上第一家年利润过500亿美金利润的公司（过多少不敢说）。也许苹果会是第一家市值过万亿美金的公司（这个取决于市场会有多疯狂）"," 。（2011-02-08）",[827,880,881],{},"网友：现在还买入苹果，对一般投资者来说是追高，但对段老师来说，也许是达到了跳出市场，忘记市场的境界了。",[827,883,884,886],{},[830,885,863],{}," 一个公司价值多少和他曾经价值多少没有必然联系。其实苹果是比较容易看明白的（如果你能平常心认真看一看的话），只要你看看他现在的盈利、账上的现金以及未来可能的盈利就好了。话说回来，之所以像大多数人一样我一直没买苹果的理由，也是因为他已经涨了许多了，所以没认真看过。真的有点像当年的网易啊。（2011-02-09）",[827,888,889],{},"网友：前天，我和同事讲，我把苹果想明白了。春节后听您分析完，我好好的用了一段时间IPAD，也比较了IPHONE和HTC。还是要有消费体验。买了一点点苹果。呵呵。小翟。",[827,891,892,894],{},[830,893,863],{}," 最近也许是个买苹果的好机会，由于日本地震可能影响到苹果，加上etf的调整也可能会影响到。我自己最近也在慢慢加一点苹果，争取在5月2号以前用option的办法（可以降低点成本）调到20-25%。（2011-04-09）",[827,896,897,899],{},[830,898,863],{}," 1月21号那天在股权到期日将释放很多buying power的压力下突然想明白苹果，做了今年的第一个大决定，到目前为止也是今年的唯一的大决定，就是重仓买进苹果。这个礼拜五苹果真的站上400了。老巴的打卡原则好像还蛮好用的。（2011-09-18）",[827,901,902],{},"网友：想了解下段总关于买苹果的思路，回头看了好多博文和评论都没找到。小心翼翼问一下：不知道是我错过了，还是段总没说过，主要是学习为主，没有跟风的意思。因为我是一直通过琢磨段总的以前选股案例来学习和提高的。",[827,904,905,907],{},[830,906,863],{}," 因为我认为苹果依然是低pe同时高增长的公司。差别在有多少人会认为苹果还会在相当长的时间增长呢？显然巴菲特不会这么认为，就像我老是觉得人们就快要不喝可乐一样（但可口可乐的营销是绝对强的，几乎任何地方都能找到可口可乐）。（2011-04-07）",[827,909,910],{},"06．这么多手机公司，为什么苹果最成功？",[827,912,913,914,917,918,920,921,925,926,928,929,931],{},"我在2011年买",[830,915,916],{},"苹果","的时候，",[830,919,916],{},"大概3000亿美元市值(当时股价310\u002F7=44)，手里有1000亿",[922,923,79],"a",{"href":924},"\u002Fjingxianjin","，那时候利润大概不到200亿。以我对",[830,927,916],{},"的理解，我认为",[830,930,916],{},"未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，所以我就猜个500亿(去年595亿)。",[827,933,934,935,937,938,941],{},"所以当时想的东西非常简单，用2000亿左右市值买个目前赚接近200亿\u002F年、未来5年左右会赚到500亿\u002F年或以上的公司(而且往后还会继续很好)。如果有这个结论，买",[830,936,916],{},"不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的",[922,939,115],{"href":940},"\u002Fjihuichengben","就可以决定了。但得到这个结论非常不容易，对我来说至少20年功夫吧。能得到这个结论，就叫懂了。",[827,943,944,945,947],{},"不懂则千万千万别碰，我有个球友320\u002F7=46买了一些，结果一个回调，310\u002F7就卖了(现在",[830,946,916],{},"加上分红可能早就超过200了)，还跟我讲为什么要卖的道理，从此我不再跟他说投资了。(2019-05-20)",[827,949,950,952],{},[830,951,863],{}," 如果你关注生意本身，你到时就会知道的，没有一个公式可以借用。我开始买苹果时苹果市值大概310\u002F7\u002F4=11块左右（分了两次股，1：7，1：4），这些年还有不少分红。那个时候就不停地有人跟我说难道树还能长到天上去？连芒格当时也说过他们不会买苹果。我本来曾经想跟老巴聊苹果的（那时苹果大概15块左右），但看了芒格说的话之后就犹豫了。",[827,954,955],{},"这事我其实一直有点后悔，如果当时老巴要买了苹果20%的话，我会非常开心的。多年后当老巴已经买了很多苹果后，我确实曾经跟老巴当面聊过苹果。我说我其实很久以前就想跟你聊苹果的，他说，哎呀，你当时应该说的，下不为例哈。所以独立思考，关注生意本身最重要哈。（2020-10-13）",[827,957,958,959,961],{},"网友：段哥，想问一下，你当年买入",[830,960,916],{},"公司前后大概用了多久时间？",[827,963,964,966],{},[830,965,863],{}," 看起来很短实际上很长。（2025-10-19）",[827,968,969,971],{},[830,970,863],{}," 2011年的今天突然想明白并开始买苹果，那时苹果股价大概是310\u002F7=44.3加上这些年的分红。回想起来，我还是非常满意当时这个决定的。这些年大概认真买了不少苹果和茅台以及最近增加了一些腾讯和fb以及不太多的goog，如果pdd不算的话。今天又买了苹果，纪念一下8年前的决定。",[827,973,974],{},"不管怎么说，我觉得我这八年虽然没太用功，但投资的功夫似乎涨了一点！（2019-01-19）",[827,976,977,978,980],{},"网友：感觉大道从雅虎转到",[830,979,916],{},"后投资功力大涨。",[827,982,983,985,986,988],{},[830,984,863],{}," 确实，从雅虎到",[830,987,916],{},"是一个跳跃，从那以后就彻底摆脱了市场的影响了。(2023-01-19)",[822,990,992],{"id":991},"第二节-估值方法与关键指标","第二节 估值方法与关键指标",[827,994,995],{},"网友X：市值过万亿美金！很想知道段总是怎么算出来的，能不能简单说几个依据？不管怎么样，现在追高苹果都有点趋势投资的感觉。",[827,997,998,1000],{},[830,999,863],{}," 苹果现在手里有600亿现金，去年4季度的盈利已经过60亿了。如果苹果达到500亿以上的年利润，5000亿以上的市值是非常合理的。一万亿只是一个说法，要看苹果后续的发展情况。",[827,1002,1003],{},"我决定买苹果以前主要想的是他们是不是还有可能成长，有多大的空间可以成长，威胁都可能来自什么地方，等等。",[827,1005,1006],{},"我不去想他现在的股价和过去的股价，尽量用平常心去看这家企业。以我的观点看，苹果年利润有一天达到800亿或更多都是有可能的，所以觉得我买的价钱还很便宜。我不懂你说的所谓趋势投资是什么意思。",[827,1008,1009,1010,1013],{},"总而言之，我想的只有一个东西，就是未来自由",[922,1011,88],{"href":1012},"\u002Fxianjinliu","（的折现）。不过，要认为苹果能做到这一点并不容易，我自己也很遗憾为什么以前一直没花功夫去想一想。过去没想的主要原因则和你现在的想法差不多。（2011-02-14）",[827,1015,1016],{},[830,1017,1018],{},"封仓十年的选择（2011-04-29）",[827,1020,1021,1023],{},[830,1022,863],{}," 这样的利润、这样的成长、这个business model，苹果会成为世界上市值最高的公司吗？苹果会成为第一个市值到一万亿美金的公司吗？",[827,1025,1026],{},"答案将会在若干年后揭晓。",[827,1028,1029],{},"居然ipod还能卖这么多，有趣。（2011-04-21）",[827,1031,1032],{},"02．引用：苹果iPad 2今日国内上市起售价3688元",[827,1034,1035,1037],{},[830,1036,863],{}," 封仓10年是个很好的思路，选股时就该这么想。",[827,1039,1040],{},"我自己还没有过封仓10年的体验，毕竟开始投资才刚刚到第10个年头。",[827,1042,1043],{},"这位博主对苹果的看法和我类似，但我不知道我会不会持有苹果10年或以上。",[827,1045,1046],{},"实际上我买股票时还真没有想过要拿多少年。",[827,1048,1049],{},"我一般会给我买的股票定个大概的价钱，比如买GE时我就认为GE至少值20块，但我确实没想过要多少年才会到20。",[827,1051,1052],{},"苹果所处的行业确实是个变化很快的行业。",[827,1054,1055],{},"虽然我认为苹果在竞争中已经处于一个非常有利的位置，但我还是会很关切哪些变化有可能会改变苹果的地位。",[827,1057,1058],{},[830,1059,1060],{},"如果非要我给苹果定个价的话，我大概认为苹果也许某天会到600块。理由是：以我的理解，苹果的盈利在两到三年内大概就可以",[827,1062,1063],{},[830,1064,1065],{},"达到每股40-50块／年（现在的盈利能力大概在每股25-6块\u002F年），也就是说苹果的盈利能力会在两三年内接近double一下，再加上那时每股现金100多块（现在大概每股60多），给他个600的价钱应该不算太过分吧？",[827,1067,1068],{},[830,1069,1070],{},"苹果会不会到1万亿市值？那要看那时市场有多疯狂，Jobs有多健康了。",[827,1072,1073,1076],{},[830,1074,1075],{},"当然，苹果也是有可能掉回到100多块的，反正到时大家就知道了"," 。（2011-04-29）",[827,1078,1079],{},"网友N：Typical段氏毛估估大法，几句话，几个数字容易，背后滴东东就不好学咯，危险动作，小朋友们不要模仿。",[827,1081,1082,1084],{},[830,1083,863],{}," 背后的东西就是凭什么认为苹果还会增长，有这个认识确实不容易，我也没有绝对把握，所以只放了25%在里面。（2011-04-30）",[827,1086,1087,1088,1090],{},"网友：关于苹果，我也算是这个行业的人士吧，我对苹果未来利润和自由",[922,1089,88],{"href":1012},"有疑问，想请教段老师：",[827,1092,1093],{},"1．利润率是否会下滑？随着智能机市场的市场扩大，且预期iPhone的份额还会提高。销量的增长，我认为概率很大。但是价格和利润率呢？从市场占有率角度iPhone大约是全部手机市场的5%，但是利润占比应该在50%上下了。",[827,1095,1096],{},"iPhone 50%毛利水平，200美金的单台利润，能否持续？华为这样的选手，推出的1700元左右的U8800，我觉得也是不错了。Android手机确实体验不是太好。不过我觉得确实对于大多数人，是可以满足的。",[827,1098,1099],{},"2．iPad是很有潜力的产品，但是在这个价位，毛利率不高。我个人估计在30%上下。因为要替代上网本，笔记本市场，这个中等定价是必要的。Apple应该是瞄准了市场培育后的电子出版平台等市场。",[827,1101,1102],{},"3．即使未来Apple在App Store，iBook，iTunes上形成了对于应用软件，电子书，音乐的50%占有率的垄断局面，我认为3年内，这部分的营收和利润比硬件的利润还是差很多。所以商店本身不是估值重心所在。而且Android必然会形成类似的平台。",[827,1104,1105],{},"所以，能否到500亿美金／年利润，我觉得自己还是没有能力推理出来。我已经买入了部分Apple，主要是觉得3年内确实没有对手能威胁他，年200-300亿美金利润基本有保证，市场价格下降的可能很小，这部分思想坦白说比较投机了。",[827,1107,1108,1111],{},[830,1109,1110],{},"段永平：以我理解的苹果，毛利率很难下降很多，但市场占有率也不会提高的很快。什么时候我看到苹果开始通过降低毛利率来提高市场占有率的时候，我就该考虑离场了。"," （2011-05-22）",[827,1113,1114,1117],{},[830,1115,1116],{},"段永平：又是对苹果的毛估估思维：苹果现在市值4200亿，现金1000亿，今年估计赚400亿+，明年应该能赚500亿+，产品如日中天，生意模式相当强大，现在就卖有点早吧？这么高的成长和这么低的pe，找个好股票不容易啊。苹果怎么看都应该是6000亿以上的公司，也许会更多的。卖股票和持股成本无关，要理性思考。"," （2012-01-26）",[827,1119,1120,1122],{},[830,1121,863],{}," 我没细算，毛估估想来其实苹果市值按当时的股数计算已经过万亿了（加上分红因素）。开始买苹果时觉得苹果怎么看都应该是1000块钱的股票，现在算上分红则已经超过1100了。（2017-05-23）",[827,1124,1125],{},"网友：我还有一个问题，就是记得去年您提到苹果iphone的市场占有率，我想在估值的时候一定要一个大概能达到多大的市场份额吧？那要怎么样来评估呢？",[827,1127,1128,1130],{},[830,1129,863],{}," 我认为苹果最后至少会有20%+的市场份额，但超过40%可能就有点不正常了。（2012-02-03）",[827,1132,1133,1134,1136,1137,1140,1141,1143,1144,1146],{},"在我的理解里，",[830,1135,916],{},"的",[922,1138,70],{"href":1139},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","非常强大，未来的复利回报大概率是会高过长期美国国债的。我总是习惯把美国长期国债作为第一",[922,1142,115],{"href":940},"(就是最低的意思，我如果看不到公司的长期盈利是能超过长期国债的，就会直接过滤掉)，",[830,1145,916],{},"第二。",[827,1148,1149,1150,1152],{},"所以除非看到未来几十年会好过",[830,1151,916],{},"的公司，不然我不愿意换的。(2022-01-27)",[827,1154,1155,1157],{},[830,1156,863],{}," 说苹果：其实，最简单的办法是看懂这个生意，然后决定一个可以接受的价钱，然后buy to keep。比如苹果，我个人观点，这个生意是可以到每股80-100的每股年盈利，然后还可以至少维持或继续增长相当长的时间（比如5到10或更长），然后的结论就是300块很便宜，400块很便宜，其实500块也很便宜。现在600块便宜不？好像依然便宜。",[827,1159,1160],{},"但是，如果没办法得出苹果未来的盈利能力，什么价买起来都晕。（2013-01-22）",[827,1162,1163],{},"网友：段总能否把去开苹果股东大会的体会感想写出来分享一下啊？",[827,1165,1166,1168],{},[830,1167,863],{}," 体会就是我写的这几句话：好的生意模式，好的团队，好的价钱。（2013-03-01）",[827,1170,1171,1172,1175,1176,1178,1179,1182],{},"网友：免费的东西往往不便宜，贵的东西有时其实很便宜。比如，买本好书才几十块钱，收获可能远超几百倍书的价钱。再比如您请",[830,1173,1174],{},"巴菲特","吃饭，",[830,1177,1174],{},"说最重要的是",[830,1180,1181],{},"生意模式","，您说收获远超饭局的价钱。我现在也更看得懂了，既是很好的投资，又顺带做了慈善。",[827,1184,1185,1187,1188],{},[830,1186,863],{}," ",[830,1189,1190],{},"能明白贵与便宜的关系非常不容易啊，绝大部分人大概一辈子都很难明白的。(2013-03-29)",[827,1192,1193],{},"特斯拉看起来很酷，但有点贵，不是那么容易买得起。iPhone虽然相对贵不少，但绝对值差别非常小。(2013-05-14)",[827,1195,1196],{},"网友：看不懂“相对贵”和“绝对值”？",[827,1198,1199,1201],{},[830,1200,863],{}," 你两个都多用一段时间就明白了。1000块和800块的绝对值差异是200块。如果1000块的东西好用那么一点点，带来的回报会远超过200块。大多数人会觉得800块的东西便宜，实际上往往相反。(2013-05-23)",[827,1203,1204],{},"网友：任何企业都应该有个合理的估值，还是某些企业根本就无法估值？",[827,1206,1207,1209],{},[830,1208,863],{}," 大部分人说的估值都是指市场应该给什么价，这个概念的估值不说也罢。如果你不是这个意义上的估值，你自然会明白的。",[827,1211,1212,1213,1215],{},"其实对自己懂的公司估值没人们说的那么难，难是难在不容易找到自己想买的公司。我对",[830,1214,916],{},"的估值就是个例子，只有两个方面，简单来说就几句话(大概):",[827,1217,1218,1219,1221,1222,1224],{},"1.3000 多亿市值，1000多亿",[922,1220,79],{"href":924},"，一年净利润400亿，未来会到500亿或更多(看不懂这个的为什么要对",[830,1223,916],{},"感兴趣？);",[827,1226,1227,1228,1230],{},"2.",[830,1229,916],{},"会将利润以合适的方式还给股东。",[827,1232,1233,1234,1236,1237,1240,1241,1243,1244,1246,1247,1249],{},"第二条在A股比较难解，这也是当时博友问我会选",[830,1235,916],{},"还是",[830,1238,1239],{},"茅台","时，我毫不犹豫选",[830,1242,916],{},"的原因。记得两年前有个朋友在球场碰到我，很沮丧地说他600多买了",[830,1245,916],{},"，那时",[830,1248,916],{},"一路在往下掉。我当时只说了一句：",[827,1251,1252],{},"也许两年后你会觉得600很便宜哈。(2014-11-15)",[827,1254,1255],{},"网友：您曾经说过苹果的市场份额会到40%，是因为快消品超过40%都很罕见吗？这几年下来苹果确实还没到40%（日本、美国到了），我发现两个因素有没有可能让苹果最终会超过这个比例？一、由于ios和Android不同的理念和出发点，随着时间越久，ios的优点会越来越明显，Android的缺点越来越明显；6和6+推出后，身边又有几个换iphone的人；",[827,1257,1258],{},"二、ios系统下的产品越来越多；从开始的Ipod+Imac+iphone，现在是Imac+iphone+ipad+APPLEwatch，未来会有更多产品进到这个系统里；",[827,1260,1261,1263],{},[830,1262,863],{}," 40%只是毛估估的想法，理由是iPhone虽好，但Android系统要便宜很多，而且现在的Android比当年诺基亚的智能机已经好用太多了。这是个多元的世界，总有人会因为各种原因选择不同产品的。",[827,1265,1266],{},"我的40%的意思是，如果苹果能有40%的份额的话，这个投资就是极好极好的投资了，而且40%是有可能达到的，因为在很多发达国家或地区目前已经达到40%或以上了。实际上，苹果只要有25%以上的份额就足够好了。（2015-04-26）",[827,1268,1269,1271],{},[830,1270,863],{}," 苹果已经达到我几年前说的$500亿年利润的目标，本人预计五年内会到1000亿！（2015-10-28）",[827,1273,1274],{},"网友：苹果第一财季的iPhone销量很不错啊，服务营收也如期继续大幅增长。",[827,1276,1277,1279],{},[830,1278,863],{}," 看来似乎五年内到1000亿年利润的想法乐观了些，那就改10年吧。美金升值的影响比想象大。（2016-01-28）",[827,1281,1282],{},"网友：讨论雅虎的时候，会有很多数字的概念，包括账上现金、各业务营收、占阿里的股比等等，后来就不怎么听到学长说具体数字了。",[827,1284,1285,1288,1289,1298,1299,1301],{},[830,1286,1287],{},"段永平","： ",[830,1290,1291,1292,1294,1295,1297],{},"定性比定量分析重要，最重要的是",[922,1293,70],{"href":1139},"。",[922,1296,70],{"href":1139},"把绝大多数公司都过滤掉了，定量分析的重要性一下子就下降了很多","。所以这些年想通了的最重要的一点就是",[922,1300,70],{"href":1139},"。这点通了以后，投资确实就变得非常有意思了。",[827,1303,1304],{},[830,1305,1306,1307,1309,1310,1312],{},"苹果目前应该依然是现在世界上获利最高的企业，但扣掉",[922,1308,79],{"href":924},"以后的市值其实已经比google扣掉",[922,1311,79],{"href":924},"以后的市值要低了。",[827,1314,1315],{},[830,1316,1317],{},"以我理解的苹果而言，早晚苹果还会有惊世之作的。在调整期间苹果的利润尚且可以如此，怎么想苹果都不贵哈。",[827,1319,1320,1321],{},"注意到“来自iTunes、软件及服务的营收为41.14亿美元”，",[830,1322,1323],{},"比去年增长30%。",[827,1325,1326],{},[830,1327,1328],{},"很好奇10年后这一块会有多大。",[827,1330,1331],{},[830,1332,1333],{},"如果年均成长15%，10年就是4倍。",[827,1335,1336],{},[830,1337,1338],{},"如果年均20%，就是6.2倍。",[827,1340,1341],{},[830,1342,1343],{},"如果年均30%的话，那就是13.8倍哈。",[827,1345,1346],{},[830,1347,1348],{},"在苹果的生态圈里，似乎15%不难做到。",[827,1350,1351],{},[830,1352,1353],{},"上个季度icould的用户是2.5亿，这个季度已经达到3亿。2012年2月时库克宣布icould用户超过一亿（就是说icould用户在一年多一点点时间里涨了200%）。",[827,1355,1356,1359],{},[830,1357,1358],{},"备注一下：一般而言一个用户一般只有一个apple id，所以也就只有一个icould账户，不管你有多少个ios设备。ios设备越多，icould用起来就越舒服。那些拿着iphone但不知道icoud的用户要赶紧花点时间搞一个哈。"," （2013-04-24）",[827,1361,1362,1364],{},[830,1363,863],{}," 第43条：这个对苹果的评价可能是两三年前说的？现在苹果已经6000亿了，但盈利还没达到我当时的预期，估计大屏手机出来后明年就应该可以赚到500亿以上了。（2014-08-22）",[827,1366,1367],{},"$533.94亿！",[827,1369,1370],{},"2015财年全财年总营收2337.15亿美元，去年同期为1827.95亿美元；净利润533.94亿美元，去年同期为395.10亿美元。",[827,1372,1373],{},"对此，苹果CEO蒂姆·库克表示：“……2015财年是苹果最为成功的一年，总营收近2340亿美元，整体增长28%……",[827,1375,1376,1378],{},[830,1377,863],{}," 能以扣掉现金后五六倍的pe的价钱拥有这样的公司，我也感到骄傲！（2013-02-13）",[827,1380,1381],{},[830,1382,1383],{},"段永平：关于移动市场（智能手机加平板，也许手提电脑也加上）到底有多大我没有数据，但从自己从业的经验看似乎非常非常大，19年100亿台的估计可能都是过于保守的。很多人实际上每年至少都会买一个的。世界人口已经过70亿了，至少70%以上是潜在消费者吧？苹果的东西老少咸宜，有支付能力后很多人早晚都是会至少买一个的。",[827,1385,1386,1389,1390,1393],{},[830,1387,1388],{},"所以我觉得苹果如果有一天达到一年赚1000亿美金也不是太惊奇的事情。也许3-5年就见到了"," 。",[830,1391,1392],{},"10年100亿台的估计可能都是过于保守的。"," （2013-03-04）",[827,1395,1396],{},"网友：有些人基础财务分析都不懂，只是根据定性战略分析大致把握住模糊的正确，长期看也能持续稳定地获得超额收益。",[827,1398,1399,1187,1401],{},[830,1400,863],{},[830,1402,1403],{},"投资到目前为止我还真没看过财报，也许确实有点看不懂(其实就是因为懒)，也许真的觉得没必要。我见过太多很懂财务分析的人对投资可真是一头雾水哈。(2023-01-20)",[822,1405,1407],{"id":1406},"第三节-长期持有与大跌加仓","第三节 长期持有与大跌加仓",[827,1409,1410],{},"网友：知道段总一直都喜欢满仓，斗胆问一下：段总在1月份左右买的苹果，25%的仓位动用的是未投资现金？还是卖了其他股票再买的？",[827,1412,1413,1415],{},[830,1414,863],{}," 卖了很多ge。买的时候认为ge会到20以上，现在还会到多少就不知道了。其实我也不光卖ge，别的想卖的不好卖。我的uhal卖了这么多年还卖不完，挂个5000股的卖单经常一个月都没人理。不过，5块钱买的东西，能卖100块已经是很高兴的事情了。除非你是大资金，如果是小资金的话也许还有别的可以有更好的回报。（2011-05-03）",[827,1417,1418],{},"引用：苹果股价再创新高，巴菲特索罗斯双双减持苹果股票",[827,1420,1421],{},"网友：在这个时候再来回顾段总买苹果的过程，真是绝妙的一课。一年前段总在3000亿美金市值的时候，重手建仓苹果，给我深刻印象，和很多人讨论过，基本说法都是，不能迷信段永平。呵呵，和不能迷信巴菲特一个意思。刚才看了一下这个帖子里面的讨论，也是差不多这个意思。",[827,1423,1424],{},"现在来看，真正理解和懂一个公司才能有这种心态和行动，所谓看得懂变化可以赚大钱就是这个意思了。（2012-01-26）",[827,1426,1427],{},"这个案例真的是活生生的展示在我们的面前，有多少心得和体会就看各自造化了。",[827,1429,1430],{},"网友：我当时就纳闷怎么老巴买了苹果，虽然老巴否认了，不过就算苹果现在是250，老巴还是不会买的。",[827,1432,1433,1435,1436,1439],{},[830,1434,863],{}," 老巴说他希望他买过。索罗斯可能正在揪自己头发呢。",[830,1437,1438],{},"如果老巴给我30分钟时间，我也许能把苹果的生意模式给老巴讲清楚"," 。（2012-03-03）",[827,1441,1442,1443,1445,1446,1448],{},"网友：持有容易吗？阿段2011年买了",[830,1444,916],{},"公司后，2012-2013年出现了55%的下跌；2015——2016年出现了36%的下跌；2018年出现了40%的下跌；2020年出现了36%的下跌。美股，几乎单仓一只。甚至阿段身边的朋友知道阿段还持有",[830,1447,916],{},"的情况下，都忍不住卖掉。",[827,1450,1451,1453,1454,1456,1457,1459],{},[830,1452,863],{}," 是啊，",[830,1455,916],{},"每次大跌的时候我都会加码，每一次！想到10年后的时候，自己喜欢的股票大跌怎么会心情不好呢？不过确实绝大部分早年跟我买",[830,1458,916],{},"的都早卖掉了。(2020-11-06)",[827,1461,1462,1463,1465],{},"前些年一直有人在说，树不会长到天上去的。他们是对的，树确实不会长到天上去，但这不会影响",[830,1464,916],{},"的成长。(2021-12-08)",[827,1467,1468],{},"网友：段大哥，苹果跌的时候一直买，现在价值回归了，估值您认为现在算是合理了吗？以前400-500美金的时候，我是能看出便宜，现在近1000美金了，有点含糊了。",[827,1470,1471,1473,1474],{},[830,1472,863],{}," 现在其实也不算贵，只是没有以前便宜了。",[830,1475,1476],{},"就我自己而言，拿着苹果的选择如下：1．继续持有，享受苹果的成长和成就。现在拿着苹果，在可预见的未来的复合回报应该还可以有8%或以上的（这里指的是企业获利）2，找到比苹果更好回报的投资。我目前还没有任何目标，主要是自己能搞懂的生意太少。3．卖了拿着现金吃利息？这个显然不是太靠谱。",[827,1478,1479,1482],{},[830,1480,1481],{},"当然，有人会说现在卖了等回调再买回来，这么说的人如果有过苹果的话应该早就等得胡子都白了吧？"," （2015-02-27）",[827,1484,1485],{},"网友：段大哥对苹果的投资确实是一个经典的价值投资战例．好奇的想问一下，段大哥如果遇到像08年那样的系统性风险，会卖掉一部分苹果吗？",[827,1487,1488,1490],{},[830,1489,863],{}," 不懂什么叫系统风险，好公司便宜的时候应该尽量多买点，岂有卖掉之理呢？（2018-09-11）",[827,1492,1493,1494,1496],{},"网友：现在持有现金不急于买入",[830,1495,916],{},"是怎么样的思考角度？",[827,1498,1499,1187,1501,1174,1504,916,1507],{},[830,1500,863],{},[830,1502,1503],{},"这个问题",[830,1505,1506],{},"其实也没完全说清楚过。我是这么想的：我手里的",[830,1508,1509,1510,1512],{},"如果卖掉的话，买什么呢？目前看来只能买短期债券。我的现金目前买什么呢？",[830,1511,916],{},"还是短期债券？当然，如果你有其他更好的投资标的就没有这个问题。",[827,1514,1515,1518,1519,916,1522,1518,1525],{},[830,1516,1517],{},"我今天其实买了10万股","苹果，",[830,1520,1521],{},"价格是176美元多一点，钱已经付了，但要一年后交货(就是按现价买了",[830,1523,1524],{},"同时卖了一个一年后到期的200的看涨期权，收了21美元。最高收益是赚25美元\u002F股)。今天我有很多期权到期，我把赚到的钱的一部分买了",[830,1526,1527],{},"但这并不是这么花钱的理由。",[827,1529,1530,916,1533],{},[830,1531,1532],{},"我想得最多的是176美元的",[830,1534,1535,1536,1539],{},"便宜吗？按这个价钱你愿意买下这个公司吗？其实对阿里我也是在想同样的问题，1800亿你愿意买下这个公司吗？",[830,1537,1538],{},"腾讯","我想的也是这个问题。很多问题不是马上能够得到结论的，好在我们有时间。需要考虑什么因素？当然是所有因素啦。(2023-12-16)",[827,1541,1542],{},"山也还是那座山，梁也还是那道梁！",[827,1544,1545,1546,1548,1549,1552,1553,1555],{},"今天开始买了一些(或者卖put)",[830,1547,916],{},"、英伟达、",[830,1550,1551],{},"谷歌","、台积电，一会儿再卖点",[830,1554,1538],{},"的put。",[827,1557,1558],{},"感觉起码要折腾一阵子，卖点put来回一起折腾也许是个好玩的游戏。还是老话，千万别用margin。如果put进来的价格从10年后看回来是便宜的价格，那这个投资就值得做，长短皆宜。(2025-04-08)",[827,1560,1561],{},"网友：段总对苹果的顿悟，说明了经历在对公司理解上会变成财富，哈哈。段总无论是早年的小霸王时期，还是步步高时期，或者最近的OPPO手机时期，其实从事的工作和苹果公司没有本质的区别，都是消费类电子，都是了解消费者需求做精品，对产品的追求和理解是一致的，所以段总很快就能看到苹果的“厉害”之处，这个和大部分投资人通过财报、预测所理解的公司前景是不太一样的。",[827,1563,1564],{},"所以段总说的买股票就是买公司，对于公司理解的“度”上，把自己放到经营者的位置去思考，有些时候不得不说是需要一些“机缘”的。看段总苹果的仓位貌似提高不少，是因为最近一段时间看苹果看得更加明白的原因？",[827,1566,1567],{},"看《乔布斯传》最大的体会，乔布斯是一个非常厉害的产品经理，除了做出优秀的产品，还搭建了优秀的平台，失去乔布斯的苹果，在单品的设计能力和惊艳程度上是否会衰退，我不是很能理解？段总对于苹果的判断，是因为乔布斯所搭建产品平台优异的巨大惯性延续，还是其他？",[827,1569,1570,1572],{},[830,1571,863],{}," 绝大多数是去年初和中间有个时期买的，一月21号option到期后出来不少钱（主要是put卖出过期了），本来想买bac的，结果近期bac涨了很多，就都放aapl了。在没有其他目标的前提下，今天的苹果依然便宜，但没以前便宜了。",[827,1574,1575],{},"有些东西进步到一定程度后其实后面的变化就不大了，比如汽车发动机30-40年代和现在其实没本质差别。有些国家（虽然我们很多人很看不上）40年代就能造航空母舰，我们现在依然不行，说明由于某些原因，时间有时候帮不上大忙。",[827,1577,1578],{},"苹果最厉害的是现在这个平台以及生意模式，以我的水平我看不出谁能打破他。当然有很多以为水平比我高的人非说别人可以，当然也有自己说自己可以打败苹果的，你看看他们像吗？",[827,1580,1581],{},"也许，能打败苹果的人快出生了，也许正在某个地方徘徊，但怎么看都不是现在大家知道的这些，这是个大家可以看很多年的故事。（2012-01-29）",[827,1583,1584,1585,1587,1588,1591,1592,1594],{},"网友：",[830,1586,1174],{},"卖",[830,1589,1590],{},"IBM","，买入",[830,1593,916],{},"，到底是看到了什么本质？",[827,1596,1597,1187,1599,1601,1602,1604,1605,1607],{},[830,1598,863],{},[922,1600,88],{"href":1012},"，现在的",[922,1603,88],{"href":1012},"和未来的",[922,1606,88],{"href":1012},"。(2018-03-04)",[827,1609,1610],{},"网友：在什么情况下，你会考虑卖出苹果？",[827,1612,1613,1615],{},[830,1614,863],{}," 如果苹果开始为了生意而不是用户体验时，就该考虑离开了。",[827,1617,1618,1619,1621,1622,1624,1625,1627,1628,1631,1632,1635,1636,1638,1639,1642,1643,1645,1646,1136,1648,1650,1651,1654],{},"网友：刷到这个视频，我突然想到为何",[830,1620,1174],{},"前段时间在210到240之间要卖掉那么多",[830,1623,916],{},"股票了，而非仅仅因为税务问题：这个采访视频应该是老巴买入",[830,1626,916],{},"之前的，对于老巴来说手机是",[830,1629,1630],{},"三星","也好其它牌子也好并不重要，那是淘汰率非常高的“科技产品”，拉开时间长度没有",[922,1633,146],{"href":1634},"\u002Fchayihua","，他害怕",[830,1637,916],{},"也像",[830,1640,1641],{},"诺基亚","一样，但是又纠结还保留着很多",[830,1644,916],{},"股份并没清仓，所以段总说的",[830,1647,916],{},[922,1649,70],{"href":1139},"比",[830,1652,1653],{},"可口可乐","要好，也是触动老巴的哈。",[827,1656,1657,1658,1660],{},"（视频中",[830,1659,1174],{},"的手机已经非常破旧）",[827,1662,1663,1664,1666],{},"大道：其实老巴比绝大多数人懂",[830,1665,916],{},"，不然他不会买了那么多的。当然，我要更懂一点点，所以投的比例也更高。（2025-11-01）",[827,1668,1669,1670,1672,1673,1675],{},"网友：想请教个问题：既然“买入=持有”是个fact，为什么在有闲钱的时候不一定对持仓股票进行加仓呢？比如持有270的",[830,1671,916],{},"，但不会再加仓这个价位的",[830,1674,916],{},"，这个是什么原因呢？",[827,1677,1678,1679,1681],{},"大道：就拿",[830,1680,916],{},"为例：这个价位不便宜，我确实不想买，但卖了又不知道买啥更好，这也是我在不停卖call的原因。（2025-12-16）",[827,1683,1684],{},"大道：你有病吧？！我买苹果的时候是什么价？现在是什么价？人家要求的就是不变穷，我这个办法大概率会让他不变穷的。（2026-08-20）",[827,1686,1687,1688,1690,1691,1693,1694,1696,1697,1699,1700,1702],{},"网友：大道您好，您在接受方丈的采访时说您是满仓主义者，当",[830,1689,1239],{},"股价涨到两千六七的时候非常想卖，但想到卖了",[830,1692,1239],{},"却不知道再把钱投资于哪一家，所以一直持有。我突然想到您重仓持有",[830,1695,916],{},"，最近您也觉得",[830,1698,916],{},"股价有点贵了，但是您也并不急着卖，随缘被call，是不是也是因为卖掉",[830,1701,916],{},"之后不知道再投资哪一家公司？",[827,1704,1705],{},"大道：哈，今天就开始面临这个问题了。277.5今天居然被call走了，该买啥呢？！（2025-11-29）",[827,1707,1708],{},"网友：大道觉得苹果除了目前的动量，下一次有可能的爆发点会在哪？",[827,1710,1711,1713],{},[830,1712,863],{}," 应该是礼拜一到礼拜五中的某一天。所谓“动能”不过是基本面的反映而已，该来的早晚会来的，而且也是在礼拜一到礼拜五中的某一天。（2012-03-09）",[827,1715,1716],{},"网友：想向您请教一下仓位的问题。像现在的苹果，440多了，您还有没有留钱继续投呢？到多少的时候您会毅然all-in呢？还是说永远留出几成的钱等待比股灾还股灾的情况出现？",[827,1718,1719],{},"我联想到德州扑克，有时候手里拿两个A别人又all-in，如果你带着轻蔑和坏笑跟他all-in，常常输光，但是不all-in又觉得好亏。",[827,1721,1722,1724],{},[830,1723,863],{}," 记得在桌面9个人的情况下，两个A就all in的赢面好像只有40%左右。",[827,1726,1727,1730,1731,1734],{},[830,1728,1729],{},"投资里最难的就是没有具有“充分条件”的投资，只能从概率的角度考虑。越了解的公司，决策的把握越大，但从来没有100%的赢面。所以仓位只能根据自己的理解来决定。"," 我个人一般对有",[922,1732,64],{"href":1733},"\u002Ffuzhai","的公司不太愿意重仓，另外就是无论多有把握也绝对不要用margin。",[827,1736,1737,1740,1741,1744],{},[830,1738,1739],{},"我个人很喜欢苹果，觉得这是我目前能找到的最好的公司了，这个价位我放到90-95%也是愿意的"," 。当然也许和我前面买的价钱比较便宜也有点关系，但这个只是心理影响而已。理性讲，",[830,1742,1743],{},"4000亿的苹果其实只有2700亿（扣掉现金）左右的市值，大概5-6年就赚回来了"," 。只要苹果能把现金回馈这块再处理的好一点（我非常信任库克会这么做）。",[827,1746,1747],{},"投资苹果对我来讲是个能睡得安稳的投资。如果我错了怎么办？呵呵，那大概就是该轮到我也亏点钱了？看个3-5年吧，我觉得我的赢面在90%以上，而且就算亏也不会亏光的，而且省了几年到处找股票的时间，多好？!",[827,1749,1750],{},"不过，如果不了解苹果的人最好还是不要碰苹果，我一直就不太赞成小额投资者投苹果，尤其是那些希望今天买明天就涨很多的人们，会睡不好的。（2013-03-01）",[827,1752,1753],{},"网友：1.怎么看待自己买入的公司犯错？比如库克3年没有做大屏。如果自己判断这个公司犯错了，什么情况下会您选择持有或者观察，什么情况下会选择果断放弃呢？2.听您谈了很多买入的逻辑，对于如何卖出您可否分享一下经验，除了有更好的标的外，还有其他场景会考虑卖出吗？",[827,1755,1756,1757,1759],{},"比如核心看",[922,1758,88],{"href":1012},"和现在公司的市值关系，亦或者说公司文化经营方向发生改变之时？",[827,1761,1762,1763,1765],{},"大道：1.我很喜欢看到我喜欢的好公司犯错误，因为他们的文化最终会让他们纠正错误，但错误会让我有机会再多买一些。我的",[830,1764,916],{},"80%以上都是不出大屏的那三年买的。 2.卖出我不擅长，所以总是想尽量找到那些不需要卖的公司。（2025-11-13）",[827,1767,1768,1770],{},[830,1769,1287],{}," ：其实也没啥可说的，买的理由一条也没变过，该说的也都说过了，目标价也没啥变化。",[827,1772,1773,1776],{},[830,1774,1775],{},"right business + right people + right price + time = good result。虽然这个不是投资的充分公式，但好结果却是个比较大概率的事件。"," （2013-04-20）",[827,1778,1779],{},"网友：在苹果身上赚到了投资以来最大的一笔钱。",[827,1781,1782,1784],{},[830,1783,863],{}," 苹果也是我自己投资上赚钱最多的公司（不算实业的情况下）。（2015-02-28）",[827,1786,1787],{},"网友：老巴现在大谈苹果，比段大哥晚了好几年啊。幸运2010年开始在这个平台结识了前辈，无私地给大家分享价值投资。从茅台和苹果，期间股市的涨涨跌跌，尤其茅台遭遇限制三公消费和塑化剂大幅下挫，同期A股2013到2014年的中小创满天飞，股灾后茅台走出独立行情一骑绝尘，很多小票打回原形。",[827,1789,1790],{},"结合自己这些年做股票的犯过的错误，当初没有把段大哥的话认真领悟，现在终于对价值投资有那么一点体会了。感恩，感谢，谢谢段大哥这些年的无私奉献，谢谢这个交流的平台。路漫漫其修远兮，吾将上下而求索。",[827,1792,1793,1795],{},[830,1794,1287],{}," ：你这一说，投资变得好像是件很痛苦的事情啊？还是好好看看老巴吧，跳着踢踏舞去上班，一点上下而求索的感觉都没有。老巴绝对是能够找到事物本质的人，苹果这事是个非常好的例子。革命不分先后哈。（2018-02-28）",[827,1797,1798,1799,1801],{},"网友：不少的call如果被call走了，资金会被分配到哪里？",[830,1800,1239],{},"还是拼多多？",[827,1803,1804],{},"大道：目前我大概率会买BRK\u002FB，那是个躲牛市的好地方。（2025-11-01）",[827,1806,1807],{},"网友：大道卖call不是看跌的意思吗？大道不是不做空吗？",[827,1809,1810],{},"大道：难道你问一个问题以前不能搞明白你自己到底想问什么吗？（2025-11-01）",[827,1812,1813,1814,1816],{},"网友：老巴比绝大多数人懂",[830,1815,916],{},"，但这绝大多数人不包括阿段！",[827,1818,1819],{},"大道：这个很可能是真的，但原因是因为我能搞懂的公司太少（2025-11-01）",[827,1821,1822,1823,1826,1827,1294],{},"网友：一直在想阿段买AAPL是不是有一小部分“对冲”的概念在里面(对冲",[830,1824,1825],{},"OPPO","和VIVO)，当然最主要的还是足够懂",[830,1828,916],{},[827,1830,1831],{},"大道：0%！（2025-11-13）",[822,1833,1835],{"id":1834},"第四节-分红回购与现金","第四节 分红、回购与现金",[827,1837,1838],{},"网友I：“任何股票都只有一个真正的买家，那就是公司自己。”我觉得这句话绝不是说只有公司自己才是价值投资者。而是指公司以外的任何人购买都不会增加每股的价值，只不过是从张三转让给李四而已，和公司没啥关系；而公司回购并注销长期来看才会增加每股的含金量，这才是唯一真正的买家。",[827,1840,1841,1776],{},[830,1842,1843],{},"段永平：其实只要把公司想象成非上市公司，而且只有一个股东，大概就能容易明白了。",[827,1845,1846],{},"网友J：这里说到的东西值得反复琢磨，很精炼。我是用非上市公司来帮助理解这里说到的一些概念的，比如说是三个人共同持有一家非上市公司的情况，觉得理解起来有可能容易些。看这个博客，一个慢字，对我来说越慢好像常常越快。有时候就停止不动了，静静地想，会有帮助。",[827,1848,1849,1851,1852,1776],{},[830,1850,863],{}," 用非上市公司的办法非常好，不然容易忽略本质的东西。",[830,1853,1854],{},"只要抽象到只有一个股东的时候就明白了。",[827,1856,1857],{},"网友：您觉得回购股票好还是分红好？",[827,1859,1860,1187,1862],{},[830,1861,863],{},[830,1863,1864],{},"我觉得分红简单且透明。回购则总是和价格有关，公司需要花时间去判断股价是否够便宜，有点难。(2012-02-24)",[827,1866,1867],{},"03．苹果每股派息2.65美元回购100亿美元股票",[827,1869,1870],{},"苹果今日宣布，将利用手中的巨额现金向股东派息。苹果称，将在截至9月底的2012财年第四季度进行季度派息，每股派息2.65美元。此外，在始于下一财年的未来三年内，苹果将回购价值100亿美元的股票……",[827,1872,1873,1875],{},[830,1874,863],{}," 这个花钱法只会越花越多嘛。分红也许该再多些才好，不过由于海外钱回美国要打很多税，这样可能也有道理。总的来讲，开始下毛毛雨了。（2012-03-19）",[827,1877,1878,1880],{},[830,1879,863],{}," 分红和增长其实没有必然联系，把这两种联系在一起的逻辑不通。现在的苹果更理性，现金太多没用很可能会用于派息，但回购要麻烦些，因为需要判断股价高低。（2012-03-19）",[827,1882,1883],{},"网友：前些日子和一位朋友讨论到苹果，朋友提出了一个有趣的观点，部分观点与“seeking bargains”的比较接近。苹果业绩从高增长转向向低增长，在这个过程中难免会有不少对回报率要求比较高的对冲基金和科技股投资者离场。即使假设这批人会沽出的总量只有发行量的20%，这个也是一个巨大的绝对金额。",[827,1885,1886],{},"苹果股票面对的不是有没有投资价值的问题，而是最简单的“谁是买家？”这个老掉牙的问题。",[827,1888,1889],{},"以前苹果的主要投资者是对冲基金与科技股投资者，这些投资者看中的是高增长，对股息并不太在乎，现在苹果已经转为“价值股”了，没有既定的派息政策，确实会令对股息有一定要求，价值股的主要投资者退休基金却步。如果连老巴也不投资苹果，谁来接货是一个与价值无关但与价值回归所需要的时间有关的现实问题。",[827,1891,1892],{},"我个人也是认为苹果如果能够落实股息政策对股价有帮助。不知道段总怎么看这个问题呢？",[827,1894,1895,1898],{},[830,1896,1897],{},"段永平：其实所有的股票都只有一个真正的买家会最终影响到股价，其他人对股价的影响都是浮云。这个真正的买家就是公司自己，买股票的钱来自于盈利。"," 苹果不存在“如果”落实股息政策的问题，只有“怎么”的问题。（2013-03-02）",[827,1900,1901],{},"网友：假如苹果只宣布提高分红（每股多50美分或1美元），而不大量回购股票（一年至少200亿美元以上，去年宣布的三年回购100亿美元含金量较低因为它是用来neutralizing the impact of dilution），是否可以判断苹果对自己的前景不乐观？",[827,1903,1904],{},"另外，最为iphone的忠实用户，虽然我不会把我的iphone 5换成三星的，但是我觉得iphone的竞争优势相对于不在是四五年前那么强大了，它的innovation速度慢了，护城河变窄了。",[827,1906,1907,1909,1910,1389],{},[830,1908,863],{}," 感觉像是你相信人们会把自己的欧洲车换成韩国车？虽然你自己不想换。",[830,1911,1912],{},"其实任何股票都只有一个真正的买家，那就是公司自己",[827,1914,1915],{},"苹果现在拥有远多于运营需要的现金，所以苹果一定会用他们认为合适的办法还给股东，这是人们在投资苹果时应该认定的，不然就是投机。之所以认为这是个好机会回购的理由，因为这个价位以上套住的人很多，股价很可能不会反弹得太快，所以苹果有机会买到好价钱。我如果是苹果，现阶段宁愿贷款也要回购，因为分红都比利息高了。等将来有窗口时再将海外的钱汇回来就行。",[827,1917,1918],{},"（2013-04-19）",[827,1920,1921],{},"网友H：“其实任何股票都只有一个真正的买家，那就是公司自己。”突然想明白这句话了，如拨云见日，茅塞顿开！",[827,1923,1924,1926,1927,1929],{},[830,1925,863],{}," 未来净",[922,1928,88],{"href":1012},"就是这个意思啊。（2013-04-19）",[827,1931,1932,1933,1935,1936,1938],{},"网友：这么好的公司，也许",[830,1934,1174],{},"正在买入",[830,1937,916],{},"股票，很快会到500美元的。",[827,1940,1941,1943,1944,1946],{},[830,1942,863],{}," 我不希望",[830,1945,916],{},"股票涨。最好是几年都不涨，这样回购价钱就可以低一些。(2013-04-28)",[827,1948,1949,1950,1952],{},"去年这时总股数是59.648亿，现在是56.735亿，少了2.9亿多股。这样下去20年后",[830,1951,916],{},"公司就是我的了。",[827,1954,1955],{},"网友：再回购下去，段总想要低调就很难了，要进各种财富排行榜了。？",[827,1957,1958,1960],{},[830,1959,863],{}," 20年就可以了。（2015-10-29）",[827,1962,1963],{},"网友：以后可不能把它给私有化了啊！相信有很多博友跟我同样的想法。",[827,1965,1966,1968],{},[830,1967,863],{}," 如果目前这个价格能够持续10年的话，想不私有化也难啊。（2015-10-29）",[827,1970,1584,1971,1973],{},[830,1972,916],{},"刚宣布增大回购，市场就提供低价机会，感觉特配合。",[827,1975,1976,1978,1979,1981,1982,1984,1985,1987,1988,1990,1991,1993],{},[830,1977,863],{}," 反正每年",[830,1980,916],{},"都是要宣布回购的。和有些企业宣布不一样的地方是，",[830,1983,916],{},"是来真的。希望",[830,1986,916],{},"的股价继续掉，",[922,1989,88],{"href":1012},"继续强悍，回购当然也是会继续的，10年8年后我可能就真是",[830,1992,916],{},"大股东了哈？(2016-04-28)",[827,1995,1996,1999],{},[830,1997,1998],{},"补充：（买股票就是买公司）"," 网友：有个问题一直困扰着我，如果好公司主流资金不买它，它也不会涨。毕竟市场涨跌是由主流资金把控的，价值投资是赚企业自身盈利的钱。如果主流资金本身就是随大流，那价值投资这个逻辑还成立吗？或者说价值规律在股市中能体现吗？",[827,2001,2002,2004,2005,2007],{},[830,2003,863],{}," 其实大概没多少人比我更高兴看到苹果股价掉下来了，因为这样苹果的回购价就会更低，回购的数量就会更多，未来我们持有的比例就会自然上升。最关键的是，苹果未来的净",[922,2006,88],{"href":1012},"是不是还会这么厉害？",[827,2009,2010],{},"我个人理解苹果的好日子还远远没有到头呢，现在一年净利润已经接近$600亿了，未来$800亿或者$1000亿／年都是有可能的，只要10年内能到$1000亿，目前这个价钱就是很便宜的价钱！（2018-11-15）",[827,2012,2013,2014,2016,2017,2019,2020,2022,2023,2025],{},"网友：查了下资料：",[830,2015,916],{},"公司目前已完成回购1000亿美元计划的30%，从2012年到2018年，",[830,2018,916],{},"已通过股票回购和派息，向股东返现了2750亿美元，其中股票回购就达到了2000亿美元。再加上这1000亿，回购高达3000亿！我觉得这传递了两个信号：",[830,2021,916],{},"认为自己股价不贵；",[830,2024,916],{},"想更多地回馈股东。",[827,2027,2028,2030,2031,2033],{},[830,2029,863],{}," 没完全看出你说的信号，但至少可以看到一个事实，就是如果加上已经返还和回购的部分，现在的",[830,2032,916],{},"市值确实早就到了1万亿了。(2018-11-20)",[827,2035,2036],{},"网友：刚刚看到库克对于现金的一些评论，我必须说我爱上了库克了。舒普问及库克为什么在利用现金储备时依旧“十分谨慎”时，库克对此措辞表现地不以为然。库克表示：“的确，我们的现金储备很充足。但是我想表达的是，我们会明智地进行开销。我会把每一笔花出去的钱都当作是我们兜里的最后一分钱。我认为股东会希望我们这样做。我不认为他们希望我们挥霍摆阔。",[827,2038,2039],{},"同时我们也从来没有觉得自己是阔佬。”他进一步指出：“我并不是死抱着这笔钱不放，我们会在董事会上对这些自己的使用展开积极的讨论，我们不会把这些钱拿来随便开个派对或者做些古怪的事情。大家也不必担心我们会感到钱多到烧包。”当舒普询问库克，如果有人认为现金储备“没有有效地发挥效能”怎么办。库克承认苹果现在的现金储备已经远远超过了运营业务所需的数量。",[827,2041,2042,2043,2046],{},"但是他还是表示：“希望大家再多一点点",[922,2044,197],{"href":2045},"\u002Fnaixin","。”",[827,2048,2049,2052],{},[830,2050,2051],{},"段永平：（微笑）"," （2012-02-14）",[827,2054,2055],{},"绿光iPrefs详解：降低资本成本，最大化企业价值_苹果（AAPL）_i美股http：\u002F\u002Fnews.imeigu.com\u002Fa\u002F1361608898048.html",[827,2057,2058],{},"这个东西有点意思，好像不像一眼看过去那么无聊。虽然我不认为这个方案会增加苹果的价值，但好像用这个办法可以避免公司少乱花钱。",[827,2060,2061,2062,2064,2065,2067],{},"“绿光资本称iPrefs当然不会增加学术意义上的内在价值，因为内在价值已经假设企业",[922,2063,88],{"href":1012},"是按最优资本结构进行融资，即最小化公司资本成本，也就是假设公司可以接触所有的融资方式-股权、债务或其他。总之最小化资本成本，从而最大化企业",[922,2066,88],{"href":1012},"价值。",[827,2069,2070,2071,2073],{},"现实中大多数公众公司市场价值与内在价值相差不大，这种iPrefs方式对他们的作用有限。但苹果不同，苹果并没有采用合适的资本结构，也就是讲苹果没有最小化资本成本，这也就是为什么苹果远远低于其内在价值。苹果现在已经建立起现象级企业形象，巨大的持续性盈利",[922,2072,88],{"href":1012},"，固定收益市场融资对于苹果来说非常容易接触。",[827,2075,2076,2077,2079],{},"”这段话个人理解其实就是把未来",[922,2078,88],{"href":1012},"折现的损失减小，或者说让股东自己决定现金的用途。",[827,2081,2082],{},"不过，苹果不像会乱花钱的公司，只是当现金使用效率低的时候，确实应该将一部分现金用于回购或返还股东。我期望苹果能将多余现金多用于回购，因为分红要交税。无论如何，现金太多的问题总比现金不够要好。",[827,2084,2085],{},"1．苹果会开始加大回购量；苹果已经拥有远多于运营需要的现金，库克也多次提到过。那么处理这些现金的最好办法大概就是在便宜的时候回购。当然，派息也是一个办法，但派息的问题是收到股息的股东要付税。苹果目前有一个3年100亿的回购计划，估计应该已经花得差不多了，所以近期应该就可以出新的回购计划。",[827,2087,2088],{},"对大的回购计划的最大障碍实际上是苹果海外现金如何回到美国的问题，这是个几乎所有有大量现金的美国公司都有的问题。有很多美国公司实际上是用发债的形式先借钱做想做的事情，等待政府的窗口把钱汇回来。由于债券的利息是如此之低，发债其实是个很好的低成本的办法。",[827,2090,2091],{},"网友B：谈谈对于段总这段话的理解：",[827,2093,2094,2095,2097],{},"1）这段话的实质，是注释了“买股票，就是买公司。买公司，就是买公司的未来",[922,2096,88],{"href":1012},"折现。”",[827,2099,2100],{},"2）任何一个公司，都是由拥有股票的群体拥有的。而这个群体，是公司的拥有者。所以苹果账上的现金，就是这个群体的。如果不是认为自己就是公司的拥有者之一，还去买股票，就是投机了。",[827,2102,2103,2104,2106],{},"3）对于苹果账上的现金，如果超过了今后业务发展的需要，在现在公司股价低估的情况下，分红不如公司股票回购。因为分红要上税，而回购不用。公司回购的股票，注销了。意味着股东手里的股票内含价值提高了，即未来的",[922,2105,88],{"href":1012},"提高了。",[827,2108,2109],{},"4）因为现在美国的银行利率很低，低于苹果的分红率。所以在这种情况下，即使从银行贷款，回购股票，对于苹果的股东也是合算的。等以后，时机合适的时候，再归还银行贷款。",[827,2111,2112,2113,2115],{},"5）大概是因为不少人没有真正的拥有过公司，中国股市的参与者，也比较少地享受股东的待遇，所以还不习惯站在股东的立场上看问题。换句话说，还没有进入，“买股票就是买公司，就是买未来",[922,2114,88],{"href":1012},"”的思维。",[827,2117,2118,2120],{},[830,2119,1287],{}," ：4）是的，现在苹果的贷款利率肯定是低于分红率的，而且远低于获利率。但苹果需要借钱的原因是因为苹果（很多美国大公司都有这个问题）这种跨国大公司在美国以外的获利如果汇回美国的话，公司需要再纳一笔税，而这些盈利都是在海外纳过一次税的了，所以这些美国大公司和政府都对这事很是纠结。",[827,2122,2123],{},"一般，共和党好像是主张应该允许这些公司把钱汇回来时课以轻税的（比如5-10%），民主党似乎认为不应该。我自己没认真研究过，但知道布什当政时开过一次窗口，在一定时期内允许美国公司把海外盈利在5%-10%（具体多少没查过）的税率下汇回美国。很多美国大公司发债其实可能都是这个原因（google也有）。现在应该轮到苹果做这事了。",[827,2125,2126],{},"如果乔布斯在这事也许要难办些，库克应该会做的，只是不知道什么时候和什么速度（阶段规模）。（2013-04-20）",[827,2128,2129],{},"网友：如果管理层能用好现金最好是少分红不分红，和收购无关，和收购是否遵循商业基本原理相关，分红还要交税的，如果管理层无法应用好现金，那就应该分红。",[827,2131,2132,2134],{},[830,2133,863],{}," 苹果的文化不会乱用现金的，就这么简单。（2012-01-27）",[827,2136,2137],{},[830,2138,2139],{},"这次苹果终于启动了真正的回购计划，第二点已经不需要担心了。希望股价能够在这个价位或以下维持一段时间，越长回购的股票",[827,2141,2142],{},[830,2143,2144],{},"就会越多，每股内在价值也会相应提高。",[827,2146,2147],{},[830,2148,2149],{},"至于第一点，苹果能长期获利吗？如果一开始不是这么认为的人就不应该投资苹果（投机不在此范围）。",[827,2151,2152],{},[830,2153,2154],{},"苹果暂时不肯推大屏的理由库克已经说得很清楚了，喜欢的股东自然会留下，不喜欢的可以赶紧把股票卖回给公司，不然以后就可能没这个价钱了哈（可能会更低或更高的）。",[827,2156,2157],{},"网友：上面段哥说了，今天的苹果依然便宜。那么苹果的超额现金是否应该优先回购自家股票呢？当然确实没有以前便宜了。",[827,2159,2160,2162],{},[830,2161,863],{}," 对于管理层而言，回购的问题是需要判断股价是否便宜，但派息则更简单。我估计苹果在留够现金后会有个派息和回购的计划，回购只是在一定情况下实施。如果我是苹果的CEO，就简单宣布以后每年的获利拿40%出来回购，40%派息，20%留下。（2012-02-07）",[827,2164,2165],{},"网友：段总觉得苹果的下一个“惊世之作”会是什么啊？手表？电视？还是其他什么东西？蛮期待的。苹果那么多现金，您要是库克您会怎么花啊？记得段总原来说过开始了解新能源方面的东西，有没有什么体会啊？现在国外的技术达到商业化程度没啊？",[827,2167,2168,2170],{},[830,2169,863],{}," “惊世之作”五年能有一个就灰常好啦，到时你就会知道的。如果我是库克，用现金的办法和他一样，就是留够需要的尽量用来回购。这次的回购在15年底以前结束，相信后面还会有很多类似的回购的。最好股价别动，然后别人都把股票卖给苹果了，按这个速度，10年内我就是苹果唯一股东啦，然后我会决定下市的。（2013-04-26）",[827,2172,2173],{},"网友X：段总这一解释，让我一下子明白了什么叫回购，同时对库克有了更深理解；坚定看好苹果，到时候我们跟着段总一起下市。（2013-05-03）",[827,2175,2176,2178,2179,2181,2182,2184,2185,2187],{},[830,2177,916],{},"的策略非常清晰，就是维持现金中性，大致意思就是留够运营需要的资金后，多出来的钱都通过派息或者回购返还给股东。",[830,2180,916],{},"应该是没有实质性债务的，但海外赚的钱回美国税比较高，所以",[830,2183,916],{},"可以用美国海外的钱(或可流动资产)做抵押在美国发债。前几年利息低的时候",[830,2186,916],{},"发了很多长债，然后用这些钱的一部分回购了股份，股东们赚大了哈。",[827,2189,2190],{},"不过，海外的钱最后怎么回到公司我还没搞明白过，但看到过某些年政府会开个小口子让钱以比较优惠的汇率回美国。我没看过财报，有时间的人可以去研究，我就简单相信库克说的逻辑就好了。(2024-04-30)",[822,2192,2194],{"id":2193},"第五节-成熟期的苹果与今天的估值","第五节 成熟期的苹果与今天的估值",[827,2196,2197,2199],{},[830,2198,863],{}," 苹果似乎又到了不贵的价钱了。（2018-12-08）",[827,2201,2202],{},"AI iPhone大概率会导致一波换机潮，主要是因为iPhone太耐用，平均换机周期比较长，很多人都没啥换机的动力。AI iPhone会给大家一个很好的换机理由。不过，换完一轮后大概又会进入相同的换机周期甚至更长的换机周期。估计未来十年内iPhone至少能卖个25亿台或者接近30亿，活跃用户估计也会从13-14亿增加到接近20亿。",[827,2204,2205,2206,2208,2209,916,2212],{},"未来10年里iPhone 这个产品大概率会给",[830,2207,916],{},"带来一万亿以上的利润。",[830,2210,2211],{},"毛估估乱猜",[830,2213,2214],{},"10年后的年利润可能会接近或达到2000亿美元。(2024-07-22)",[827,2216,2217,2218,2220,2221,2223,2224,2226,2227,2229],{},"前段时间我就说过",[830,2219,916],{},"确实不便宜，",[830,2222,1174],{},"换点到石油是非常容易理解的事情。但目前我也没有太强的意愿拿",[830,2225,916],{},"去换别的公司，主要是我能理解的公司太少。不过，我最近确实花了一点时间去想西方石油(OXY)和雪佛龙这两个石油公司。从占有资源的角度看，这两家公司似乎确实是蛮有价值的。所以我卖了不少",[830,2228,916],{},"的call，同时也卖了不少OXY 的 put。",[827,2231,2232,2233,2235,2236,2238,2239,2241],{},"一般来说，",[830,2234,1174],{},"开始减持的公司是会继续减持的。我不会卖",[830,2237,916],{},"，但很乐意看到",[830,2240,1174],{},"先生减持一些或更多。(2024-02-15)",[827,2243,1584,2244,2246],{},[830,2245,916],{},"受关税影响挺大的。",[827,2248,2249,2251],{},[830,2250,863],{}," 10年后看也许没那么大。(2025-04-09)",[827,2253,2254,2255,2257],{},"网友：10月31日，",[830,2256,916],{},"CFO称，正在大幅增加对人工智能的投资，预计12月当季的毛利率将在47%至48%之间。",[827,2259,2260],{},"大道：哈，这是要变AI股了吗？$4万亿市值，40倍的pe，有点看不懂了。（2025-10-31）",[827,2262,2263,2264,2266,2267,2269,2270,2272],{},"网友：“在我想明白之后，我们斥巨资买入",[830,2265,916],{},"。我不是故作神秘，也没什么不能说的，但确实很难表达出来。就是在长期观察积累的基础上，一下子豁然开朗。”昨天又重温",[830,2268,1174],{},"关于",[830,2271,916],{},"的看法，也是豁然开朗的感觉。",[827,2274,2275],{},"大道：估计巴老目前也有点想不明白了。前面他卖在230-240的区间，现在手里还剩下的不知道会不会继续卖？我卖了不少明天到期的280的call，要是call走就call走吧。（2025-11-01）",[827,2277,2278,2279,2281],{},"网友：怎么毛估估一个伟大公司是否贵了，比如",[830,2280,916],{},"，为什么PE40就算是贵了呢？",[827,2283,2284,2285,2287,2288,2290,2291,2293,2294,2296],{},"大道：其实很难知道一个伟大公司是不是贵了，老巴也说他也没完全搞懂。",[830,2286,1174],{},"说过伟大的公司最好别卖，但他有时候也会忍不住卖掉的。",[830,2289,916],{},"现在40倍PE，就算每年复合成长10%，也要7年多才能翻倍哈。这个",[922,2292,115],{"href":940},"不低但也无法就因此认为",[830,2295,916],{},"已经贵了。不过，40倍PE确实不便宜。（2025-11-01）",[827,2298,2299],{},"网友：换个角度看苹果，为啥很多公司市值超过5000亿美元之后就会增长缓慢或走向衰落，苹果是不是也是一样，长大到一定规模，食物就会匮乏，内部和外部的攻击就会累计更多，管理机构庞大后公司文化就会变异，最后走向死亡。苹果已经是地球最大公司，还能再扩大一倍还是十倍。不论他现在的基因多么优秀，最终会因庞大而死亡。",[827,2301,2302],{},"如果我从生物学来估值，这个公司已经没有增长空间了，除非地球经济飞速增长，否则无法支持这样的市值了。",[827,2304,2305,2307],{},[830,2306,863],{}," 科技类活不长指的是微软吗？即使今天来看，如果从某一时点用同样代价让你就可以拥有1%的微软或可乐的股份，哪个会让你觉得更开心呢？",[827,2309,2310],{},[830,2311,2312],{},"现在很多“科技类”的公司走下坡路实际上都是同一个原因，你懂的。",[827,2314,2315],{},"还有就是，消费类的公司就一定活得长吗？只要看看可口可乐这么多年的同行还有多少活下来就明白了。（2012-04-29）",[827,2317,2318,2319,2321,2322,2324,2325,2327,2328,2330],{},"网友：（补充大道的回答）树不会长到天上去。这个问题我很早就想过了，也早预料到",[830,2320,1239],{},"会有停止增长的一天，关键是这并不影响",[922,2323,88],{"href":1012},"，也就不影响",[830,2326,1239],{},"的价值。另外，我并不认同此时",[830,2329,1239],{},"的利润已经到了最高点。",[827,2332,2333,2334,2336,2337,2339],{},"大道：很多年前当我们讨论到",[830,2335,916],{},"的时候，就有个很著名的大佬跟我讲“树不会长到天上去的”，我说我对树了解不多，但",[830,2338,916],{},"未来肯定会比现在厉害很多。（2025-10-31）",[827,2341,2342,2343,2345,2346,2348,2349,2351,2352,2354,2355,2357],{},"网友：段总您好，想向您请教一个投资决策的问题。当前",[830,2344,916],{},"公司市盈率（PE）已达 40 倍，同时我感知到当前的",[922,2347,115],{"href":940},"相对较高，这种情况下，是否需要考虑清仓",[830,2350,916],{},"股票，转而配置",[830,2353,1538],{},"、",[830,2356,1551],{},"这类看似性价比更高的标的呢？",[827,2359,2360,2361,2363],{},"大道：问题是你有",[830,2362,916],{},"股票吗？（2025-11-01）",[827,2365,2366,2367,2369],{},"网友：段总，",[830,2368,1239],{},"年报出来了，破天荒的今年没像往年一样公布年度营收目标！",[827,2371,2372,2373,2375],{},"大道：出预测是件很奇怪的事情，更奇怪的是居然有这么多人在做。",[830,2374,916],{},"居然也是给指引的，很奇怪。（2026-04-17）",[827,2377,2378,2379,2381,2382,2384],{},"网友：段总，你在2011年的时候曾经说过，你认为",[830,2380,916],{},"处于成长的早期阶段。现在是2026年，您认为",[830,2383,916],{},"目前处于成长期还是成熟期呢？",[827,2386,2387,2388,2390],{},"大道：",[830,2389,916],{},"很成熟，但依然还会增长。不过目前股价不便宜了。虽然不是很舍得卖（适当卖点call应该还是可以接受的），但也不太会在这个价位下手买了，哪怕是put也不太敢卖了。（2026-05-15）",[827,2392,2393,2394,2396],{},"网友：AI都夸你的估法比",[830,2395,1174],{},"的还简洁，大道化繁为简。",[827,2398,2399,2400,2402],{},"大道：哈，话虽这么说，但看懂",[830,2401,916],{},"未来的利润可不是三脚猫的功夫能做到的哈。（2026-05-27）",[827,2404,2405],{},"网友：（新闻：英伟达拟发行200亿美元债券。有网友讨论现金充裕的公司为什么还要发债）",[827,2407,2408,2409,2411,2412,2414],{},"大道：这个也是我的猜测之一。",[830,2410,916],{},"也发债，尤其是在利息很便宜的时候，",[830,2413,916],{},"发了很多债。（2026-06-17）",[827,2416,2417],{},"大道：存储这次涨价估计一两年下不来，电子消费品这段时间可能要过苦日子了。（2026-06-26）",[827,2419,2420],{},"网友：好奇一下：李录曾经买过不少 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