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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":576,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":31,"date":9,"description":578,"editor":1981,"extension":1982,"meta":1983,"navigation":1984,"order":579,"path":1985,"publishedAt":9,"seo":1986,"seoDescription":578,"seoTitle":1987,"slug":577,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":1988,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":1989,"sourceStatus":1990,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":1991,"stem":1992,"summary":578,"tags":1993,"type":435,"updatedAt":1996,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"__hash__":1997,"_collection":1998},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-maotai-01.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":1974},"minimark",[821,826,844,847,852,855,861,867,870,875,878,886,891,894,899,902,907,910,913,918,921,924,927,932,938,952,972,975,978,981,984,987,990,997,1021,1026,1038,1047,1055,1061,1064,1069,1075,1086,1095,1103,1106,1111,1115,1118,1126,1135,1143,1157,1160,1168,1185,1191,1197,1200,1205,1208,1213,1219,1245,1248,1251,1260,1266,1274,1280,1292,1295,1300,1309,1320,1326,1332,1335,1338,1341,1344,1353,1362,1371,1374,1380,1383,1386,1389,1393,1409,1412,1417,1420,1425,1428,1436,1449,1452,1457,1460,1463,1468,1471,1474,1479,1482,1485,1490,1493,1496,1499,1502,1505,1508,1511,1514,1517,1520,1523,1526,1531,1534,1537,1542,1552,1574,1579,1584,1589,1606,1612,1615,1630,1636,1641,1650,1655,1667,1673,1678,1684,1693,1698,1701,1704,1715,1725,1728,1733,1737,1762,1775,1793,1796,1801,1804,1807,1810,1813,1816,1819,1822,1825,1828,1831,1840,1851,1863,1872,1875,1889,1897,1904,1919,1930,1936,1939,1951,1971],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-产品与品质","第一节 产品与品质",[827,828,829,833,834,837,838,840,841,843],"p",{},[830,831,832],"strong",{},"段永平："," 最近有机会品尝（抿了抿）了几次",[830,835,836],{},"茅台","，有30年的和50年的。由于自己不喝白酒，所以还是体会不深，但能体会喜欢",[830,839,836],{},"的人对",[830,842,836],{},"的感觉，确实不一样。（2010-07-05）",[827,845,846],{},"网友：有个问题来了，赤水河环境污染问题是不是一个令我们头痛的事呢。真想亲自去看看那个地方的环境情况。最近会抽时间去看看，是报纸炒作还是确有其事，影响是否大，是否已经从长远考虑在整改。",[827,848,849,851],{},[830,850,832],{}," 我看到报纸上的那个照片了，看上去像是记者带着观点找地方拍的。在国内，哪条河回水的地方不会浮点东西？（2013-03-04）",[827,853,854],{},"网友：酒这个东西对人体好像只有诸多坏的影响甚至造成损害，没多少有益因素，造酒是否是在做正确的事？",[827,856,857,860],{},[830,858,859],{},"段永平：呵呵，难道你觉得所有人都应该出家？酒给人们带来快乐，如果你的字典里有快乐，你会明白的","。（2013-03-19）",[827,862,863,866],{},[830,864,865],{},"段永平：我发现真茅台确实非常好喝，连我这种不喝白酒的人都会想喝哈"," 。（2013-04-23）",[827,868,869],{},"网友：喝茅台酒是不是真的对肝有好处？段总有没有做过测验？",[827,871,872,874],{},[830,873,832],{}," 那是老季说的，大概意思是喝茅台对肝的坏处比别的酒要少得多，所以就是有好处了？我不太相信喝酒会对肝有好处，喝多了肯定不太好吧？也许适量的情况下没啥大坏处？另外，茅台的制作（酿制）工艺去掉了很多不好的元素，所以才会“不上头”，在喝多的情况下对身体的伤害会相对小很多。但无论如何，什么东西多了都可能不好的。（2013-04-24）",[827,876,877],{},"网友：经常喝一种酒会不会喝腻？我不喝酒，身边朋友有的说会腻，有的说不仅不会反而会形成依赖。",[827,879,880,882,883,885],{},[830,881,832],{}," 有些酒是有可能喝腻的，比如假酒。喝惯了",[830,884,836],{},"大概会有一点点依赖。（2013-07-24）",[827,887,888,890],{},[830,889,832],{}," 我们那么多人买了茅台酒，居然没一瓶年份酒，说明年份酒确实不是老百姓喝的。不过，如果茅台能学会加州或法国酒庄推红酒的办法，以后酒出来全部打上年份，50年后就会有很多人喜欢年份酒了。现在大家基本都知道所谓年份酒是勾兑出来的，自己掏钱喝的都不太想花这个钱。（2013-08-31）",[827,892,893],{},"网友：自2012年下半年起，茅台酒的标签上都有了很明显的年份标识（如2012年，2013年字样，都是单行字），另外封口处还有黑体字的批号和具体生产日期时间的标识。对判断年份已经很明确了。",[827,895,896,898],{},[830,897,832],{}," 那个东西早就有，但感觉好像有点不太一样。（2013-09-05）",[827,900,901],{},"网友：现在每天喝点茅台有没有感觉身体越来越好。",[827,903,904,906],{},[830,905,832],{}," 偶尔喝点儿而已，哪能天天喝呀？酒喝多了总觉得不那么好吧？虽然老季那么说，但有些人茅台喝多了一样不好的，比如许世友。（2013-11-03）",[827,908,909],{},"网友：今年第一次喝到茅台对酒有了一点新认识，打开盖子和别的酒香味不同，是“酱”香，不俗的那种。入口竟然是甘甜，我特意去查“甘”是什么意思。感觉很醇厚入喉热气升腾但不烧，口齿留香，过后也不臭。整个过程很醇，特意喝了别的酒对比。老爸不觉比平常喝多了一倍哈。我想度数高的要保持口感应该更加不容易。",[827,911,912],{},"其实之前我是一直排斥白酒的，因为碰到要喝的时候都是拼酒的时候，也吃过亏。喝一点感觉很好！",[827,914,915,917],{},[830,916,832],{}," 如果你真的能从10年的角度看茅台，你的感觉会很不一样的。（2014-02-02）",[827,919,920],{},"网友：袁仁国坚信「茅台酒目前在国内市场没有挑战者」，在他看来，中国人消费白酒的传统风俗习惯，并未因洋酒大举来华而有所改变；相反，白酒仍然是中国人偏爱的消费品。尽管中国白酒市场的白热化竞争已经持续多年，茅台在市场上的销量也时有起落，一方面受产能局限，另一方面，袁仁国认为，是他们始终恪守一个民族酿酒品牌的底线，「崇本守道，坚守工艺，储足陈酿，不卖新酒」。",[827,922,923],{},"据介绍，茅台的生产工艺分制曲、制酒、储存、勾兑、检验及包装六个环节。袁仁国表示，整个生产周期为一年，「端午踩曲，重阳投料，酿造期间九次蒸煮，八次发酵，七次取酒，分型储存，勾兑窖藏，五年后包装出厂」。换言之，茅台从生产到消费者手上，至少需要5年。",[827,925,926],{},"他透露，几年前茅台供应很紧张，市场出现短缺，价格被炒高，一瓶普通茅台酒市场零售价被炒到2000至3000元，当时库存有十多万吨，但为了确保质量，坚决「不到时间、决不出厂」。",[827,928,929,931],{},[830,930,832],{}," 茅台应该学学法国红酒的做法，让每一瓶酒都成为年份酒——每一瓶酒上都写明出厂年份。以后大家喝53度茅台前会说今天喝的是哪年哪年的茅台，而不仅仅是茅台哈。现在的年份在酒瓶上实在是不起眼。（2015-01-28）",[827,933,934,935,937],{},"网友：今年你们有没有人买",[830,936,836],{},"年份酒呢？",[827,939,940,942,943,945,946,948,949,951],{},[830,941,832],{}," 好像没有。我前几年买了些2003年出的30年",[830,944,836],{},"，前些天开过一瓶，和去年出的50年",[830,947,836],{},"比较了一下，大家都认为十来年前出的30年",[830,950,836],{},"明显比今年出的50年的要好喝。所以，买普茅放够年头后会比年份酒好。（2016-07-31）",[827,953,954,956,957,959,960,962,963,965,966,968,969,971],{},[830,955,832],{}," 前两天有朋友自远方来，开了这两瓶酒和不错的威士忌以及不错的红酒品一下。这两瓶",[830,958,836],{},"一个是三十年的，一个是五十年的（蓝茅）。三十年的",[830,961,836],{},"是我在塑化剂事件期间买的，也有十几年了。品完后大家一致认为，这瓶买了十几年的30年的",[830,964,836],{},"确实比50年的",[830,967,836],{},"好喝。另外当时买的一升装的",[830,970,836],{},"现在也非常不错了。（2025-09-07）",[827,973,974],{},"网友：存酒的话两斤装的和一斤装的哪种更好啊？",[827,976,977],{},"大道：两斤装的好像放久了确实要好很多，不知道是不是心理作用。（2026-01-29）",[827,979,980],{},"网友：年份酒的价格是飞天两倍以上，我们老百姓宁愿自己买来放几年再喝也不太愿意高价买更好喝的年份，所谓延迟满足！等人均月收入过2万买年份应该就没什么困难了。",[827,982,983],{},"大道：可以理解的。（2026-01-29）",[827,985,986],{},"网友：与酱香酒生产工艺有关。不可能只生产飞天。就是同一批酒，不同时段取的酒，品质不一样，印象中飞天的产酒率只占了30%的样子，这也是从工艺上决定了酱香型酒的稀缺性（其他香型的产酒率要高得多）。相当于泡茶一样，如果只喝最好的那一泡，其他几泡就浪费掉了。所以根据品质各个定价，这样就合理了。",[827,988,989],{},"大道（转AI回答）：Gemini：（ai有时候可能乱讲的）\n茅台系列酒是53度飞天的副产品吗？\n不是。茅台系列酒绝对不是生产飞天茅台（53度飞天茅台酒）的“副产品”或下脚料。\n民间常有一种误解，认为系列酒（如茅台王子酒、迎宾酒、汉酱、茅台1935等）是用生产飞天茅台剩下的废弃酒醅（丢糟）二次发酵酿造的（即所谓的“翻沙”或“串沙”工艺），但从酿造工艺、生产主体和商业战略来看，事实完全不同：",[991,992,993],"ol",{},[994,995,996],"li",{},"工艺与原料上的本质区别\n茅台酒（飞天\u002F五星）与系列酒属于不同的产品线和工艺路线，各有独立的酿造车间与投料计划：",[998,999,1000,1003,1006,1009,1012,1015,1018],"ul",{},[994,1001,1002],{},"飞天茅台（大曲坤沙工艺）：",[994,1004,1005],{},"原料严格采用贵州当地的红缨子糯高粱（整粒破碎率小于20%）。",[994,1007,1008],{},"遵循标准的“12987”工艺（1年生产周期、2次投料、9次蒸煮、8次发酵、7次取酒），基酒需陈化窖藏至少3年以上，再经勾调陈酿，出厂周期至少5年。",[994,1010,1011],{},"主要系列酒（以独立投料工艺为主）：",[994,1013,1014],{},"茅台1935 \u002F 汉酱 \u002F 仁酒等中高端系列： 同样采用正宗的大曲坤沙工艺或专属柔和酱香工艺，拥有独立的投粮配额和生产车间，并非副产物。",[994,1016,1017],{},"茅台王子酒： 采用碎沙工艺（将高粱完全粉碎后酿造）结合部分坤沙基酒勾调，生产周期短于飞天，出酒率更高，主打大众高性价比。",[994,1019,1020],{},"茅台迎宾酒： 早期历史上曾部分使用过飞天取酒后的酒醅加新粮进行发酵（即“翻沙工艺”），但随着茅台技术改造和品质升级，早已转为严格按标准投料生产的碎沙\u002F翻沙工艺配方，同样有独立的原料配额和质量控制体系。",[991,1022,1023],{"start":21},[994,1024,1025],{},"勾调与品质分级（“等级”而非“副产物”）\n酱香白酒的生产遵循“多轮次取酒”和“按质分级”的严苛体系：",[998,1027,1028,1035],{},[994,1029,1030,1031,1034],{},"飞天茅台的基酒主要来源于",[830,1032,1033],{},"第3、4、5轮次（核心大回酒","）中品质最顶尖的部分。",[994,1036,1037],{},"在同批次发酵中，如果某些轮次或某些甑锅取出的基酒达不到飞天茅台的勾调等级，会被降级作为其他产品的基酒储备或调味酒，但这属于质量分级（Grading）与品类调配，绝非工业意义上的“副产品（By-product）”。",[991,1039,1040],{"start":26},[994,1041,1042,1043,1046],{},"商业定位：独立的战略支柱\n在茅台集团的战略中，系列酒（以“茅台1935”、“茅台王子酒”为核心）被称为“",[830,1044,1045],{},"双轮驱动”的另一主力轮","：",[998,1048,1049,1052],{},[994,1050,1051],{},"茅台拥有独立的贵州茅台酱香酒营销有限公司进行专业化运作。",[994,1053,1054],{},"茅台在习水县等地投资建设了庞大的3万吨酱香系列酒技改工程及配套设施，系列酒拥有专属的厂房、发酵池和勾储中心，产能与飞天茅台完全独立平行运行。",[1056,1057,1058],"blockquote",{},[827,1059,1060],{},"核心结论：\n飞天茅台与茅台系列酒是茅台集团针对不同价格带、采用不同原料配比与酿造轮次工艺、独立投料生产的不同等级产品，绝非生产飞天过程中的副产品。（2026-08-18）",[827,1062,1063],{},"网友：几千和几万一瓶的红酒喝起来的口感到底有啥不一样呢？",[827,1065,1066,1068],{},[830,1067,832],{}," 没啥不一样，就是“钱多人傻”呗。",[827,1070,1071,1072,1074],{},"网友：",[830,1073,836],{},"好喝，但大道很少喝，是因为红酒还是比白酒对身体好一些？",[827,1076,1077,1079,1080,1082,1083,1085],{},[830,1078,832],{}," 分类不是这么分的。红酒每瓶的价格可以从2美元起到几千几万美元。白酒有",[830,1081,836],{},"以及比",[830,1084,836],{},"便宜很多的酒。当然，肯花那么多钱去买那么贵的酒的人肯定都是很“傻”的。",[827,1087,1088,1089,1091,1092,1094],{},"网友：连大道都不怎么喝",[830,1090,836],{},"，这",[830,1093,836],{},"业绩还能增长吗？",[827,1096,1097,1099,1100,1102],{},[830,1098,832],{}," 大道喝的酒单位酒精量比",[830,1101,836],{},"贵很多……",[827,1104,1105],{},"网友：段总，冒昧问一下：今年你们公司团购茅台吗？去年团购的茅台消耗得怎样？有沒有团购茅台年份酒？",[827,1107,1108,1110],{},[830,1109,832],{}," 消耗得差不多了。今年好像依然没人买年份酒，但很多人买了两升装的。不过，几年前我在美国买了一些30年的年份酒，前几天朋友来开了一瓶，味道确实好啊。其实相对于好的红酒而言，年份酒茅台根本就不贵。",[822,1112,1114],{"id":1113},"第二节-品牌与消费者心智","第二节 品牌与消费者心智",[827,1116,1117],{},"网友：以前我周围的朋友喝酒都很喜欢五粮液，不太喜欢茅台，说是浓香和酱香的区别．但现在茅台酒在市场上的势头明显更高一些，且大部分基金投资人在谈的时候也是谈茅台酒多一些．请教大道兄，除却价格因素和阶段财务报表的差异，这两个企业有什么差异呢？或者说为什么某一个比另一个要卓越一点点？",[827,1119,1120,1122,1123,1125],{},[830,1121,832],{}," 多认识些喜欢喝",[830,1124,836],{},"的人也许会对你有帮助的。（2013-02-23）",[827,1127,1128,1129,1131,1132,1134],{},"我只关注",[830,1130,836],{},"，不关注其他的。我现在偶尔喝点",[830,1133,836],{},"，不喝别的白酒。（2013-05-11）",[827,1136,1137,1138,1142],{},"网友：我个人感觉一家白酒企业能不能成功，长远的来看在于“好不好喝”，其他的都不重要。至于贵不贵，假设一切都风平浪静了。能有多大的销量，多少利润。然后倒推。中性的看待未来，",[1139,1140,197],"a",{"href":1141},"\u002Fnaixin","等待。",[827,1144,1145,1147,1148,1150,1151,1153,1154,1156],{},[830,1146,832],{}," 是啊，好不好喝是关键。",[830,1149,836],{},"已经“好喝”这么多年了。居然有人非说人们买",[830,1152,836],{},"是因为",[830,1155,836],{},"贵，有趣，有点像说iPhone的用户都是为了显摆一样。消费者的眼睛是雪亮雪亮的，只要时间足够长，啥事都能明白。（2013-04-02）",[827,1158,1159],{},"网友：现在喝白酒的人应该是在递减的，原来我也能喝二三两白酒，现在一年最多也就喝个一两次，基本都是朋友小聚或者应酬的时候喝一点，好像身边会喝白酒的朋友也差不多是这种情况，现在喝的量是之前的十分之一。不知道白酒以后会不会成为小众化的商品？",[827,1161,1162,1164,1165,1167],{},[830,1163,832],{}," 多年前我就以为喝白酒的人会递减的，结果好像和我想象的不太一样。即使递减，喝",[830,1166,836],{},"的人也很难减，因为人们会倾向少喝酒和喝好酒。（2013-04-05）",[827,1169,1170,1172,1173,1175,1176,1178,1179,1181,1182,1184],{},[830,1171,836],{},"酒量非常小，你说的这些东西不会影响喝",[830,1174,836],{},"酒的人。我认识的很多喝白酒的朋友都是除了",[830,1177,836],{},"什么白酒都不喝的人。试想想，大家聚会时说：“我们今天不喝",[830,1180,836],{},"喝xx酒。”估计很多人会马上说今天不想喝白酒……社会发展带来的结果是经济条件好的人越来越多，所以",[830,1183,836],{},"的成长应该也是大概率的。（2019-09-12）",[827,1186,1187,1188,1190],{},"听说吗？知道到底是啥意思不？在加州这种产红酒的地方还到处都是卖烈酒的店呢。",[830,1189,836],{},"在中国白酒里的份额极小。对一个份额只有千分之一的好酒你到底着得是哪门子急？（2013-10-28）",[827,1192,1193,1194,1196],{},"我很怀疑年轻人不喝酒的说法。这几天正好有机会跟几个年轻人吃晚餐、每次我拿酒出来大家都是很想喝的，好酒是很难抗拒的(对不起不是",[830,1195,836],{},")。其实喝酒的害处喝酒的人都知道，我说的是好酒很难抗拒。有些人会有喝得起的那一天的。（2023-11-23）",[827,1198,1199],{},"网友：阿段，看到一个说法：喝过其他品牌白酒的人，都有可能转去喝茅台，但是，喝了茅台后就很难转去喝其他品牌的酒。您认可这句话吗？要是认可能不能说下为什么会这样。",[827,1201,1202,1204],{},[830,1203,832],{}," 确实见到有些人会这样。你自己试试吧，我自己试过后好像觉得有点道理，但不是特别确认，毕竟我不喝白酒。（2013-07-24）",[827,1206,1207],{},"网友：茅台经常在央视做新闻联播前的报时广告，不知道效果怎么样，或许改为苹果这种广告效果会更好，把产品融入到家庭节日聚餐或其他喜庆动人的生活场景，融入到亲情、欢乐的气氛中，这样更能传递产品的价值。",[827,1209,1210,1212],{},[830,1211,832],{}," 个人感觉报时广告对茅台似乎不太合适，但想不出合适的是什么。不过，对茅台而言，做点广告比一点不做好。只要茅台持续做，他们会找到更合适的广告的。（2014-09-05）",[827,1214,1215,1216,1218],{},"网友：有报道说现在年轻人不太喝白酒，您觉得",[830,1217,836],{},"需要逐步地调整酒的口味来适应未来的年轻人吗？",[827,1220,1221,1223,1224,1226,1227,1229,1230,1232,1233,1235,1236,1238,1239,1241,1242,1244],{},[830,1222,832],{}," 你是说让",[830,1225,836],{},"改成红酒的口味么？跟不喝",[830,1228,836],{},"的人说",[830,1231,836],{},"就像跟鱼说岸上行走的感觉一样，或者跟不会打高尔夫的人说打高尔夫的乐趣一样。",[830,1234,836],{},"之所以是",[830,1237,836],{},"就因为它是",[830,1240,836],{},"，改了就玩完了！",[830,1243,836],{},"酒的销量在酒的总销量里比例非常小，没啥好担心的。（2015-06-13）",[827,1246,1247],{},"网友：刚从浙江喝喜酒回来，浙东南特好客，连喝三天。发现一个有趣现象：上茅台的时候，大家都喝茅台，一点儿不剩。上五粮液的时候，大家都说不胜酒力改喝红酒或啤酒。喝完茅台睡觉不难受，第二天头不疼，都是真实体验。以前我跟博客的朋友们说过，同龄人已经多数喝红酒不喝白酒了，现在看来并非如此。",[827,1249,1250],{},"现在茅台的消费群体已经不是政府接待类了，终端消费者很清晰，酒的价格断崖式下跌，估计是要出现质量丑闻、环境事故才会发生。这也是我最大的担忧（最大也没多大）。",[827,1252,1253,1255,1256,1259],{},[830,1254,832],{}," 好红酒上来的时候，喜欢喝红酒的人往往会先喝红酒。不过，好的红酒实在太贵（单位酒精量的单价），远不如茅台来的实惠。",[830,1257,1258],{},"茅台的质量文化不错，这也是茅台能走到今天的原因，季克良功不可没。"," （2017-08-19）",[827,1261,1262,1263,1265],{},"网友：请教",[830,1264,836],{},"核心价值的源头在哪里？",[827,1267,1268,1270,1271,1273],{},[830,1269,832],{}," 好喝！对喜欢喝",[830,1272,836],{},"的人来说。（2020-11-30）",[827,1275,1276,1277,1279],{},"网友：如何看待",[830,1278,836],{},"国际化？",[827,1281,1282,1284,1285,1287,1288,1291],{},[830,1283,832],{}," 国际化其实也就是给出国的中国人一个方便，没必要搞得像“我们也能赚外国人钱”的样子。培养口味是个很难很难的事情(我试过给不少老外喝",[830,1286,836],{},"酒，没啥下文)，先好好满足国内用户的需求就好。一二十年内能先把假酒和销售",[1139,1289,161],{"href":1290},"\u002Fqudao","解决好就是件非常了不起的事情了！（2022-12-03）",[827,1293,1294],{},"网友：对于我来说喝酒不如喝杯奶茶开心。",[827,1296,1297,1299],{},[830,1298,832],{}," We don't know what we don't know.(我们不知道我们不知道的东西。)（2024-06-29）",[827,1301,1302,1303,1305,1306,1308],{},"网友：近期",[830,1304,836],{},"宣布2035实现",[830,1307,836],{},"国际化，投入资源做国际化是正确的事吗？",[827,1310,1311,1313,1314,1316,1317,1319],{},[830,1312,832],{}," 国际化的定义是什么？现在喝",[830,1315,836],{},"的老中满世界乱蹿，",[830,1318,836],{},"酒的售点跟上就是国际化了。（2024-12-04）",[827,1321,1322,1323,1325],{},"网友：Costco（美国）又有",[830,1324,836],{},"卖啦。",[827,1327,1328,1329,1331],{},"大道：",[830,1330,836],{},"“国际化”的标志哈。（2025-12-02）",[827,1333,1334],{},"网友：据说基本卖给的是华人，外国人也有，但非常少。",[827,1336,1337],{},"大道：99%以上吧，我猜。（2025-12-03）",[827,1339,1340],{},"网友：我是普通老百姓，每次聚在一起都是喝酒聊天，只有喝酒了才觉得其实人与人相处真的是很快乐。",[827,1342,1343],{},"大道：我能理解，我正在喝红酒，哈哈。（2026-01-21）",[827,1345,1346,1347,1349,1350,1352],{},"网友：国内顶级白酒只有",[830,1348,836],{},"和其他，相信不久",[830,1351,836],{},"就能走向世界，受到绝大多数人的认可和购买，对标世界名酒拉菲、康帝。",[827,1354,1355,1356,1358,1359,1361],{},"大道：拉菲和康帝就不是一个级别的酒。",[830,1357,836],{},"早就走向世界了，因为",[830,1360,836],{},"的客户走向世界了。（2026-01-26）",[827,1363,1364,1365,1367,1368,1370],{},"网友：段叔您好 您觉得",[830,1366,836],{},"有没有必要做一些i",[830,1369,836],{},"的公仔出来 搭配酒里送给顾客 这样大家摆放家里或者送小朋友 在生活中对年轻客户也形成一种持续推广 因为那公仔形象还是挺可爱的。",[827,1372,1373],{},"大道：小朋友，喝酒的这些都是大人，谁能挂个拉布布在酒瓶上面？我猜，大部分喝酒的人都不是那么希望他们的小朋友对酒感兴趣的。（2026-02-03）",[827,1375,1376,1377,1379],{},"网友：纠结年轻人喝不喝白酒的，大概率不会买",[830,1378,836],{},"；担忧泡泡玛特能否持续制造爆款IP的，也大概不会买泡泡玛特，因为两者都不是本质问题。",[827,1381,1382],{},"大道：年轻人一直都不喝白酒的，overall。（2026-04-04）",[827,1384,1385],{},"网友：总结来说，好红酒价格几万且没有品牌共识；茅台价格几千但很强的品牌共识。",[827,1387,1388],{},"大道：是的，好点的红酒都是过万或更贵的，而且不会喝的人们还没那么欣赏，甚至真假都很难分辨。我在国内就喝到过假拉菲。茅台确实是“性价比”最高的。（2026-08-31）",[822,1390,1392],{"id":1391},"第三节-生意模式与护城河","第三节 生意模式与护城河",[827,1394,1395,1397,1398,1401,1402,1408],{},[830,1396,832],{}," 价格战一般在产品",[1139,1399,146],{"href":1400},"\u002Fchayihua","很小时容易发生。",[830,1403,1404,1405,1407],{},"酒是有很大",[1139,1406,146],{"href":1400},"的东西，至少感觉如此","。（2011-01-14）",[827,1410,1411],{},"网友：不明白白酒市场还能再大多少。",[827,1413,1414,1416],{},[830,1415,832],{}," 对茅台而言，不需要更大。对别的白酒而言，我不知道。（2013-02-01）",[827,1418,1419],{},"网友：您曾经说过国家如果认真反腐，茅台会怎么样？现今从各种方面看这次反腐应该是动真格的。您怎么看？",[827,1421,1422,1424],{},[830,1423,832],{}," 难道你认为我们以前的都不是动真格的？茅台和腐败没有直接关系，但减少公款消费确实会减少很多浪费，短期内应该也会影响到茅台以及很多东西的销量。但公款消费应该不是茅台的大头。茅台之被很多人喜欢是因为茅台是很特别的好酒，喜欢喝的人依然会喜欢喝的，只是以后用公款喝的机会少了而已。茅台如果短期销量下降些，那年份酒的产量就可以提高了？",[827,1426,1427],{},"还真是很少见不怕有库存的生意模式。（2013-02-13）",[827,1429,1071,1430,1432,1433,1435],{},[830,1431,836],{},"的优点太多了，不怕库存、追加固定资产较少、好产品、国内的面子送礼文化。当我们普通人有能力消费时，肯定会首选",[830,1434,836],{},"，如同现在的中华烟。（2013-02-18）",[827,1437,1438,1440,1441,1444,1445,1448],{},[830,1439,832],{}," ",[830,1442,1443],{},"酒这个行业确实不错，毛利高但新牌子少","。(其实很久没见过新牌子了，哪怕有些很有实力想建新",[1139,1446,141],{"href":1447},"\u002Fpinpai","的公司好像也没啥办法。)（2019-04-11）",[827,1450,1451],{},"网友：如何估算出茅台未来的销量？",[827,1453,1454,1456],{},[830,1455,832],{}," 我认为从长期来看，茅台销量出现大幅度下滑的可能性很小。（2013-03-13）",[827,1458,1459],{},"网友：找到一个让自己放心的算法，中国15岁以上人口约11.5亿，2011年人均消费酒精6升位于世界中下水平。",[827,1461,1462],{},"假设11.5人口中只5%有能力消费茅台约6000万人，再假设这些人酒精消费量只有人均值的一半3L，其中50%是白酒1.5升，其中茅台占0.5升，则这群人一年消费纯酒精3万吨，换算成白酒约6万吨，现在茅台年产量不到4万吨，则至少可以增长50%，每年通胀2%，则10年为20%茅台有提价能力。所以10年业绩至少可以翻一倍吧，10%+。",[827,1464,1465,1467],{},[830,1466,832],{}," 我没算过，但认为茅台只要能解决假酒问题，销量还会上升，而且价钱也会至少赶上通胀。（2013-03-19）",[827,1469,1470],{},"网友：2005年茅台酒产量12400吨，2010年茅台酒及系列产品32611.75吨，茅台酒产量26000吨，总营收116.3亿，茅台高度酒98.4亿（出厂价563元），低度酒10.1亿，其他7.8亿，茅台高度酒销售量约为0.87万吨，2010年全国白酒产量890.8万千升（850万吨），市场占比千分之一。",[827,1472,1473],{},"2006年茅台酒产量14900吨，2011年茅台酒及系列酒39532.62吨，茅台酒产量30026吨，总营收184亿，茅台高度酒营收157.3亿（出厂价619元），低度酒12.2亿，其他系列14.5亿，茅台高度酒销售量约为1.27万吨，2011年全国白酒产量1025.6万千升（978万吨），占比千分之一点三。",[827,1475,1476,1478],{},[830,1477,832],{}," 一、茅台酒酿制技艺需五年后包装出厂，即2003年生产的茅台酒要到2008年卖。二、茅台年报没有公布高度酒的销售量，下面茅台高度酒销售量为大概（含有年份酒）。三、茅台酒的市场占比是指茅台高度酒（53度）按当年全国白酒产量计算，会有误差。四、茅台酒每年都有提价，今年会不会例外呢？",[827,1480,1481],{},"五、以下是2008年到2012年五年的一些数据：2003年茅台酒产量10000吨，2008年生产茅台酒及系列产品25077.96吨，茅台酒产量20400吨，总营收82.4亿，茅台高度酒66.9亿（出厂价439元），低度酒10.7亿，其他系列酒4.7亿，茅台高度酒销售量约为0.76吨，2008年全国白酒产量为569.3（2014-02-17）",[827,1483,1484],{},"网友：【网易财经1月18日讯茅台集团董事长袁仁国今日在贵阳透露，2013年茅台集团实现销售收入402亿元，同比增长13.77%；实现利润总额222亿元，同比增长12.75%；上交税金140亿元，同比增长21.59%。“2014年茅台集团增长率定为12.5%，销售收入目标将突破450个亿”。",[827,1486,1487,1489],{},[830,1488,832],{}," 茅台的市场占有率不止千分之一吧？但记得好像是千分之二或三的样子？（2014-02-17）",[827,1491,1492],{},"网友：53°茅台出厂价上涨时间表：",[827,1494,1495],{},"1986年，零售价为8元加120张侨汇券",[827,1497,1498],{},"1987年，零售价120元",[827,1500,1501],{},"1988年，零售价140元",[827,1503,1504],{},"2001年8月，出厂价提高至218元",[827,1506,1507],{},"2003年10月，出厂价提高至268元",[827,1509,1510],{},"2006年2月10日，出厂价提高至308元",[827,1512,1513],{},"2007年3月1日，出厂价提高至358元",[827,1515,1516],{},"2008年1月11日，出厂价提高至439元",[827,1518,1519],{},"2010年1月1日，出厂价提高至499元",[827,1521,1522],{},"2010年12月16日，出厂价提高至619元",[827,1524,1525],{},"2012年9月1日，出厂价提高至819元",[827,1527,1528,1530],{},[830,1529,832],{}," 看上去这个提价速度有点赶不上通胀率啊。茅台的提价似乎不太有章法，其实每年小幅提两到三次价钱可能会好很多吧？每个季度涨1-2%大家都没啥感觉，存酒的人也觉得很舒服，管理上解决起来似乎也没那么难的，一方之言而已，不知道公司具体情况。（2014-04-19）",[827,1532,1533],{},"网友：正好有关于白酒想请教下，就是大概5年前也看过茅台，当时感觉就是单价上涨有限制，只能从销量上看，但销量又受制于产量，看了几篇文章都说是很难复制生产环境，这样就把它放入低增长的类别了。现在往前看，16年之前产量和销量都还平稳，不知怎么到了16年产量大幅增长，看组成估计是其他系列酒的大幅增长（没有15年对比），17年上半年产量增长更为迅猛。",[827,1535,1536],{},"想请教段总的就是飞天茅台每年产量现在能大幅增长呢？如果是的话，飞天茅台可以复制环境呢？如果不是，那茅台销售额的增长中，除了其他系列酒销售额增长外，那飞天茅台的销量增长主要是多销售了五年前的存货呢？因为只喝过一次茅台，也没去过茅台镇，确实感觉看不懂。",[827,1538,1539,1541],{},[830,1540,832],{}," 茅台的生意模式好，别的你自己慢慢看吧。（2017-11-24）",[827,1543,1544,1545,1548,1549,1551],{},"网友：在你看来",[830,1546,1547],{},"苹果","和",[830,1550,836],{},"有哪些共性？",[827,1553,1554,1556,1557,1560,1561,1564,1565,1567,1568,1570,1571,1573],{},[830,1555,832],{}," 产品文化和",[830,1558,1559],{},"生意模式","都很好。整个",[1139,1562,135],{"href":1563},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","方面，",[830,1566,836],{},"由于某些原因不如",[830,1569,1547],{},"，但",[830,1572,1559],{},"的强大能弥补一些。（2019-06-19）",[827,1575,1071,1576,1578],{},[830,1577,836],{},"提价的本质是什么？",[827,1580,1581,1583],{},[830,1582,832],{}," 需求。（2019-08-21）",[827,1585,1071,1586,1588],{},[830,1587,836],{},"是不是有金融属性？",[827,1590,1591,1593,1594,1596,1597,1599,1600,1602,1603,1605],{},[830,1592,832],{}," 我不懂什么叫金融属性。",[830,1595,836],{},"确实具有存储增值属性。我猜绝大多数存",[830,1598,836],{},"的人都不是为了增值的，但大家确实会体会到要想买到以前存的那些年份的酒，价钱会比原来贵不少。塑化剂事件的时候，我买了一些两斤装的和30年的",[830,1601,836],{},"(现在两斤装的也已经自然存了10多年了)，因为自己不太喝",[830,1604,836],{},"，所以大部分还存着。",[827,1607,1608,1609,1611],{},"偶尔有喝",[830,1610,836],{},"的朋友来喝都喜欢得不行。如果想要再买这些酒，假设能找到的话，价格应该会贵不少了，大概率比拿着黄金合算。（2024-06-16）",[827,1613,1614],{},"“金融属性”就是伪概念！（2024-06-17）",[827,1616,1617,1618,1620,1621,1623,1624,1626,1627,1629],{},"网友：大道，我对",[830,1619,836],{},"消费量进行毛估估后有个疑问：",[830,1622,836],{},"2024年营收1700亿元，每瓶飞天出厂成本价约1500元，对应",[830,1625,836],{},"销量约1亿瓶（忽略其他系列酒影响），若平均到全国，每14个人应消费1瓶（假设均摊，不考虑重复消费和青少年人群）。但是以我自身观察，",[830,1628,836],{},"消费群体占社会总人数的比例少于1\u002F100。",[827,1631,1632,1633,1635],{},"我对1\u002F14和1\u002F100之间差距过大存在矛盾和疑问：是",[1139,1634,161],{"href":1290},"库存大，群体复购量大，还是我的推导依据有问题？",[827,1637,1638,1640],{},[830,1639,832],{}," 感觉像是逻辑有问题？（2025-08-11）",[827,1642,1643,1644,1646,1647,1649],{},"网友：段总，关于",[830,1645,836],{},"有一种说法：库存的",[830,1648,836],{},"量太大，消化库存需要很长时间，有“堰塞湖”效应。请问您怎么看？",[827,1651,1652,1654],{},[830,1653,832],{}," 你看看我的说法，别拿这些不着调的东西来打扰我。（2025-08-14）",[827,1656,1657,1658,1660,1661,1663,1664,1666],{},"网友：我了解到",[830,1659,836],{},"酒过去这么年，喝掉的都是比出厂的少，那长此以往社会上堆积的",[830,1662,836],{},"酒会越来越多，增速会大幅超过社会消费和财富的增速，有个大致的估算，如果",[830,1665,836],{},"不减产，即便按比较乐观消费需求计算，十年以后，社会库存会超过10亿瓶。您怎么看这个社会库存无限增长，以致最终超出库存的最大承载力的问题呢？",[827,1668,1669,1670,1672],{},"大道：我不知道世界名酒里哪个酒不是销量大于消费量的。不用担心",[830,1671,836],{},"是不是会减产的问题，该减时他们自然会减的。（2025-11-05）",[827,1674,1071,1675,1677],{},[830,1676,836],{},"销量和人口数量弱相关，和财富总量强相关。大道是否认同这一点？",[827,1679,1680,1681,1683],{},"大道：只和想喝",[830,1682,836],{},"的人直接或间接相关，短期有很多干扰因素，相关系数不明。（2026-01-21）",[827,1685,1071,1686,1688,1689,1692],{},[830,1687,836],{},"和喜诗一样可以提价，",[830,1690,1691],{},"可口可乐","靠的是销量，不好提价。",[827,1694,1328,1695,1697],{},[830,1696,1691],{},"以前是5分钱一罐。（2026-01-26）",[827,1699,1700],{},"网友：不太想分析二季报，因为对我来说看财报还是个麻烦事儿。我还是那个逻辑：人们不会缺少对美好生活的向往，适量的酒精一定会给到人情绪价值，中国条件好的一些人一定会有兴趣尝一尝茅台。所以茅台利润不涨或者微降，甚至可以很多年不涨，对我来说都是可以接受的。",[827,1702,1703],{},"大道：其实就是53度飞天量价齐升。其他酒量价齐跌？以前是靠53度飞天去拉升其他酒，现在回归本源了。以后的销量和价钱都会原来越真实了。（2026-08-18）",[827,1705,1071,1706,1708,1709,1711,1712,1714],{},[830,1707,836],{},"召开媒体见面会时透露了一个数据，说：“",[830,1710,836],{},"酒应该说前几年一直非常紧张，但是",[830,1713,836],{},"的库房现在有120多栋，每栋库存有6层楼，我们储存了接近14万吨基酒。”14万吨酒按500元\u002F斤算就是1400亿，现在的价怎么算也不亏。",[827,1716,1717,1440,1719,1721,1722,1724],{},[830,1718,832],{},[830,1720,836],{},"这个生意和我们的消费电子比较起来，最大的差别可能就在库存上。我们这个行业的库存几乎就是垃圾，",[830,1723,836],{},"几乎就是个宝。",[827,1726,1727],{},"网友：高度酒没有保质期，可以长期存放，茅台这个生意模式还有个极大的好处是不需要售后服务。",[827,1729,1730,1732],{},[830,1731,832],{}," 酒都如此。",[822,1734,1736],{"id":1735},"第四节-产品文化与企业文化","第四节 产品文化与企业文化",[827,1738,1739,1740,1548,1742,1744,1745,1747,1748,1750,1751,1753,1754,1757,1758,1761],{},"网友：请教段先生，您对那些",[830,1741,1559],{},[1139,1743,135],{"href":1563},"能力二缺一的企业怎么看呢。一是比如",[830,1746,836],{},"这样的，",[830,1749,1559],{},"让人叫好，",[1139,1752,135],{"href":1563},"和能力实在是太蹩脚了；二是像",[830,1755,1756],{},"步步高","这样的，文化和能力一流，生存的行业竞争激烈。从长期来看，缺失文化和能力的生意模式",[1139,1759,74],{"href":1760},"\u002Fhuchenghe","会逐渐变窄。企业文化和能力应该是最核心最坚固的护城河吧。",[827,1763,1764,1766,1767,1769,1770,1772,1774],{},[830,1765,832],{}," 虽然我不是很了解",[830,1768,836],{},"，但不是很同意你说的",[830,1771,836],{},[1139,1773,135],{"href":1563},"和能力很蹩脚的说法，但可能不是你想象的那种完美文化吧。",[827,1776,1777,1778,1780,1781,1783,1784,1786,1787,1789,1790,1792],{},"很难想象一个没能力和没",[1139,1779,135],{"href":1563},"的公司能够建立一个好的",[830,1782,1559],{},"。如果",[830,1785,836],{},"没有",[1139,1788,135],{"href":1563},"，",[830,1791,836],{},"的产量早就上去了，用不了等这么多年。（2011-05-09）",[827,1794,1795],{},"网友：茅台企业文化理念",[827,1797,1798,1800],{},[830,1799,832],{}," 使命：酿造高品位的生活",[827,1802,1803],{},"愿景：健康永远 国酒永恒",[827,1805,1806],{},"企业精神：爱我茅台为国争光",[827,1808,1809],{},"核心竞争力：品质 品牌 工艺 环境 文化",[827,1811,1812],{},"领导理念：务本兴业 正德树人",[827,1814,1815],{},"人才理念：以才兴企 人企共进",[827,1817,1818],{},"经营理念：稳健经营 持续成长 光大民族品牌",[827,1820,1821],{},"质量理念：崇本守道 坚守工艺 贮足陈酿 不卖新酒",[827,1823,1824],{},"营销理念：坚持八个营销 追求和谐共赢",[827,1826,1827],{},"服务理念：行动换取心动 超值体现价值",[827,1829,1830],{},"核心价值观：以人为本 以质求存 恪守诚信 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