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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":586,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":41,"date":9,"description":588,"editor":2454,"extension":2455,"meta":2456,"navigation":2457,"order":589,"path":2458,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2459,"seoDescription":588,"seoTitle":2460,"slug":587,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":976,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2461,"sourceStatus":2462,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2463,"stem":2464,"summary":588,"tags":2465,"type":435,"updatedAt":2469,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"__hash__":2470,"_collection":2471},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-maotai-03.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2446},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,840,845,848,853,860,863,882,891,894,900,906,912,921,930,936,944,950,962,971,978,987,996,1000,1003,1008,1011,1017,1022,1028,1036,1042,1050,1073,1100,1119,1137,1140,1147,1158,1161,1175,1186,1209,1224,1227,1230,1245,1257,1262,1268,1274,1283,1286,1289,1292,1295,1299,1302,1311,1316,1319,1322,1325,1328,1338,1344,1347,1350,1353,1356,1359,1362,1365,1368,1376,1379,1382,1391,1394,1399,1402,1405,1408,1413,1424,1429,1435,1438,1446,1449,1459,1465,1468,1473,1476,1479,1487,1499,1502,1507,1513,1518,1521,1526,1529,1534,1540,1545,1548,1551,1554,1557,1566,1569,1575,1578,1581,1584,1587,1590,1593,1598,1601,1606,1609,1614,1617,1620,1625,1632,1635,1638,1641,1644,1650,1653,1658,1661,1666,1669,1674,1680,1685,1691,1697,1700,1705,1708,1713,1718,1726,1729,1739,1742,1748,1751,1760,1769,1775,1780,1785,1792,1797,1802,1805,1814,1820,1829,1863,1866,1881,1884,1887,1892,1895,1898,1901,1904,1907,1910,1913,1916,1919,1922,1926,1931,1934,1937,1940,1945,1948,1953,1956,1959,1962,1967,1972,1975,1980,1983,1988,1994,2002,2008,2013,2016,2024,2027,2038,2044,2047,2050,2053,2056,2059,2065,2068,2074,2080,2086,2089,2092,2095,2100,2109,2114,2122,2125,2128,2134,2146,2149,2158,2161,2164,2167,2170,2180,2183,2192,2195,2207,2210,2218,2224,2233,2240,2246,2252,2264,2267,2270,2274,2279,2284,2287,2292,2295,2298,2301,2304,2310,2313,2316,2321,2324,2329,2332,2337,2340,2345,2354,2363,2366,2369,2390,2396,2399,2404,2410,2413,2425],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-塑化剂事件与买入契机","第一节 塑化剂事件与买入契机",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：段大哥：最近白酒含塑化剂事件累及整个板块大跌，茅台跌到13.5倍PE（动态）以下，五粮液跌到9倍以下，您对此“黑天鹅”事件如何看？是否存在巨大的投资机会？",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 虽然我不喝白酒，但觉得喝酒的人不会因为这个就不喝白酒了。（2012-12-06）",[827,838,839],{},"网友：新浪有新闻直接说段总疑似做空茅台！结果后面的评论好几个在骂段总！怨不怨啊，段总目前应该是从不做空吧。",[827,841,842,844],{},[833,843,835],{}," 很对呀，我不做空，当然不可能做空茅台。其实我是茅台多头哈，已经开始持有茅台了。（2013-01-29）",[827,846,847],{},"网友：段总，文章报道都是写你可能不怀好意，是要做空的！应该不会影响你打球的心情吧！他们都是用这种心理去读别人，所以他们永远都读不懂价值投资，我想能懂的人，真就是那种一说就通的人，而不是很多但是、这样、那样的人！你送检茅台，其实就是要搞明白公司是否在酒中加入塑化剂，看看企业讲的是否真实，仅此而已！",[827,849,850,852],{},[833,851,835],{}," 我想有些媒体是故意的吧，也许背后真是有空头在和他们一起搞？对于想买的真正的投资者而言，空头越多越好，因为最后只有空头才会不惜代价地跳进来的。（2013-01-31）",[827,854,855,856,859],{},"网友：",[833,857,858],{},"茅台","塑化剂美国送检情况",[827,861,862],{},"$贵州茅台（SH600519）$ @地面静风@大道无形我有型 一、送检始末去年11月以来白酒行业塑化剂事件使得茅台被推上了风头浪尖，一时间媒体上披露了数份不同机构出具的检测报告，但报告结果各异，大家众说纷纭。由此，一位朋友请我安排在美对从美国市场购买的53度飞天茅台进行检测，希望借助美国的两个……",[827,864,865,867,868,870,871,875,876,878,879,881],{},[833,866,835],{}," 确实是我委托朋友去送检的，那瓶30年的",[833,869,858],{},"因为检测的指标多，时间确实有点长。报告上能有的都有了，大家只要不带预设观点去看，或许能有个",[872,873,222],"a",{"href":874},"\u002Flixing","的结论？如果",[833,877,858],{},"会为了改善口感加点啥的话，那30年的",[833,880,858],{},"肯定是最有动机加的，检测结果很能说明问题。",[827,883,884,885,887,888,890],{},"个人观点一直认为",[833,886,858],{},"不可能故意加塑化剂，这次的检验结果也从侧面间接证明了这一点。我绝不可能做空任何一只股票的，当然也绝不会做空",[833,889,858],{},"，看了这次检验结果后想多买点倒是真的。这个价钱拿个5年或更长时间的回报应该会不错。",[827,892,893],{},"大致重复一下自己的观点：",[827,895,896,897,899],{},"1.",[833,898,858],{},"不可能主动加塑化剂，但由于之前工艺或环境等问题可能真的多少有点，这次的检验结果间接证明了这点；",[827,901,902,903,905],{},"2.在1的前提下，该喝",[833,904,858],{},"的还是会喝的，因为酒精的伤害要大得多，按报告结果的分析也大致可以说明这点；",[827,907,908,909,911],{},"3.禁酒令对",[833,910,858],{},"销量的影响应该不会太大，这个纯属个人看法；",[827,913,914,915,917,918,920],{},"4.",[833,916,858],{},"这个价从长期来看不贵。这里不贵的意思是现在这个价买",[833,919,858],{},"，5年以后怎么看都应该比存银行要合算得多。（2013-02-07）",[827,922,923,924,926,927,929],{},"好像当年我们就是根据这份送检报告确信",[833,925,858],{},"没问题然后开始大规模买入",[833,928,858],{},"的。（2018-08-21）",[827,931,932,933,935],{},"网友：你当时怎么发现",[833,934,858],{},"机会的？",[827,937,938,940,941,943],{},[833,939,835],{}," 早就知道",[833,942,858],{},"，但后来慢慢理解了这是一个非常值得投资的机会，塑化剂事件是契机。（2019-09-21）",[827,945,946,947,949],{},"网友：段总公开支持",[833,948,858],{},"后，一年内又再跌了一半。没有人能预估市场，但最终会涨回它应有的价值。",[827,951,952,953,955,956,958,959,961],{},"大道：你新来的不要乱讲好不好！大道公开支持",[833,954,858],{},"是塑化剂期间，大道在美国送检",[833,957,858],{},"然后在雪球上公布了化验结果，大道就是那个时候开始买",[833,960,858],{},"的。早年看我的东西的人都知道的。不过，大多看了也是白看的。（2026-04-14）",[827,963,964,965,967,968,970],{},"大道（转AI回答）：（大道随后让AI检索了“美国送检”的源头帖并转贴）时间是2013年1月28日凌晨，雪球网友“地面静风”发表博客，披露在美国送检3瓶",[833,966,858],{},"酒的检测结果：购酒地点是美国加州山景城99 Ranch Market，外加一瓶自己收藏的30年",[833,969,858],{},"；送检机构为Applied Technical Service、Exova、Impact Analytical三家实验室；结果是三瓶中两瓶未超标，一瓶53度飞天DEHP超标约60%，引发市场“美版塑化剂风波”。",[827,972,973,974,977],{},"多家媒体当时报道，市场普遍怀疑“地面静风”背后真正出资送检的是",[833,975,976],{},"段永平","本人。",[827,979,980,981,983,984,986],{},"以上是AI找到了。送检之后我认为",[833,982,858],{},"绝对没有故意加塑化剂的动机，然后开始买的",[833,985,858],{},"。大概2013年的事情。（2026-04-14）",[827,988,989,990,992,993,995],{},"大道：有个小笑话：送检的53度飞天我们一共买了两瓶，一瓶送检一瓶保留做比对样本。送检完了后我还对比着喝过，觉得我的30年的酒比刚买的新酒好喝很多。那时还不是那么了解",[833,991,858],{},"，一直觉得99大华买的",[833,994,858],{},"可能是假的。好几年后才突然醒悟到不好喝是因为那是新酒，和放了一段时间的30年的老酒真是天差地别哈。（2026-04-14）",[822,997,999],{"id":998},"第二节-生意模式与长期价值","第二节 生意模式与长期价值",[827,1001,1002],{},"网友：如果看好一个公司，某一年增长缓慢一点或者负增长（正常情况下）你会担心吗？是不是长期看好就可以了？",[827,1004,1005,1007],{},[833,1006,835],{}," 我是这样看的。如果我能看懂一家公司，认为其长期很有前途，短期的问题往往是买入的机会。（2010-04-12）",[827,1009,1010],{},"网友K：多谢段大哥的提点！我会好好思考下这句话。",[827,1012,1013,1016],{},[833,1014,1015],{},"段永平：这是投资的本质，你懂不懂他都在那里"," 。（2014-01-17）",[827,1018,1019,1021],{},[833,1020,835],{}," 芒格的建议很好。另外，看三年五年是比看十年难的，基本上可以说，看得越短越难。（2018-10-09）",[827,1023,1024,1025,1027],{},"网友：未来10年20年，你觉得",[833,1026,858],{},"增长的瓶颈是什么？",[827,1029,1030,1032,1033,1035],{},[833,1031,835],{}," 我觉得在相对于通胀而言，",[833,1034,858],{},"增长没有瓶颈，应该可以轻松打败通胀。（2019-04-06）",[827,1037,1038,1039,1041],{},"网友：用大道毛估估的算法，",[833,1040,858],{},"未来20年以上的年利润比现在只多不少。",[827,1043,1044,1046,1047,1049],{},[833,1045,835],{}," ",[833,1048,858],{},"未来利润大概率是会比现在高的，而且大概率是越来越高……（2019-04-07）",[827,1051,1052,1053,1055,1056,1059,1060,1063,1064,1066,1067,1069,1070,1072],{},"网友：有人说",[833,1054,858],{},"的",[872,1057,74],{"href":1058},"\u002Fhuchenghe","是强大的",[872,1061,141],{"href":1062},"\u002Fpinpai","价值，您说所谓",[872,1065,141],{"href":1062},"是产品在消费者心里留下的印象，没有",[872,1068,141],{"href":1062},"溢价，因为产品是不同的产品。我认同您的观点，但我就是想不明白，为什么53度飞天",[833,1071,858],{},"不能被模仿，不能被拷贝，拷贝后同样的品质卖更低的价格？很希望得到您的解答。",[827,1074,1075,1077,1078,1080,1081,1083,1084,1086,1087,1089,1090,1092,1093,1095,1096,1099],{},[833,1076,835],{}," 跟不喝",[833,1079,858],{},"也不认识喝",[833,1082,858],{},"的人们聊",[833,1085,858],{},"是不是件很怪异的事情？喝酒有害健康，年轻人不喝",[833,1088,858],{},"，禁酒令，以及你这种认为有人会喝和",[833,1091,858],{},"差不多的酒的想法都是有点那个啥的。fact is有人可以copy",[833,1094,858],{},"吗？有人可以copy",[833,1097,1098],{},"可口可乐","吗……？（2025-08-21）",[827,1101,1102,1103,1105,1106,1108,1109,1112,1113,1055,1115,1118],{},"网友：飞天",[833,1104,858],{},"可以拥有很强的提价权，而",[833,1107,1098],{},"似乎需要用低价压制住对手。是否可以认为可乐产品本质没",[872,1110,146],{"href":1111},"\u002Fchayihua","，它明白要依靠规模优势，所以长期没调价格？",[833,1114,858],{},[872,1116,70],{"href":1117},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","是否远优于可乐？",[827,1120,1121,1123,1124,1127,1128,1055,1131,1133,1134,1136],{},[833,1122,835],{}," 这是我告诉",[833,1125,1126],{},"巴菲特","先生我觉得",[833,1129,1130],{},"苹果",[872,1132,70],{"href":1117},"比",[833,1135,1098],{},"好的原因。（2025-09-08）",[827,1138,1139],{},"网友：大道这个办法听起来不难呀，可在实际操作中我们这个行业接触到的厂家没有一个工厂可以做得到，台上讲的漂漂亮亮，台下执行的一塌糊涂，都在为销售额、市场占有率、成本过高（裁减员工）、相互串货（睁一只眼闭一只眼）、线上乱价等，我觉得核心问题是台上讲的他自己不是真的信。",[827,1141,1142,1143,1146],{},"大道：人们往往都说“",[872,1144,58],{"href":1145},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","”很难，所以他们往往都选择了更难的办法。（2025-10-26）",[827,1148,855,1149,1151,1152,1154,1155,1157],{},[833,1150,858],{},"三季度利润已经零增长了，如果",[833,1153,858],{},"未来两三年开启负增长阶段，再过三年出现个位数增长，导致用了好几年才重回双位数增长状态，您会下修对",[833,1156,858],{},"的价值判断吗？",[827,1159,1160],{},"大道：不会。（2025-10-31）",[827,1162,1163,1164,1167,1168,1170,1171,1174],{},"网友：（提问",[833,1165,1166],{},"方三文","）",[833,1169,858],{},"是不是可以理解为中国版的",[833,1172,1173],{},"喜诗糖果","？",[827,1176,1177,1178,1180,1182,1183,1185],{},"目标客户对其价格不那么敏感（方便提价），",[872,1179,141],{"href":1062},[872,1181,74],{"href":1058},"深（高端白酒的第一",[872,1184,141],{"href":1062},"），产品销量暂时下滑，存货反而会越存越值钱，在考虑它的估值的时候，能不能理解为单论目前储存的基酒就能值不少钱了，所以当前的估值显得不贵？",[827,1187,1188,1190,1191,1193,1194,1196,1197,1174,1199,1201,1133,1203,1205,1206,1208],{},[833,1189,1166],{},"：",[833,1192,858],{},"就是",[833,1195,858],{},"，为什么它得是",[833,1198,1173],{},[833,1200,858],{},[872,1202,70],{"href":1117},[833,1204,1173],{},"好多了，比",[833,1207,1098],{},"也好多了。",[827,1210,1211,1212,1214,1215,1217,1218,1220,1221,1223],{},"大道：如果你送人一瓶酒，你送什么？ 如果情人节你送人一盒巧克力，你送什么（你会跟你老婆说今天有个不是喜诗的牌子巧克力打折，所以我买了一盒给你？——",[833,1213,1126],{},"）？仅仅在这点上很像！我当然知道巧克力是甜的，",[833,1216,858],{},"不是。",[833,1219,858],{},"和",[833,1222,1098],{},"的很多属性完全不像，虽然都是喝的。（2025-12-26）",[827,1225,1226],{},"网友：大道，请问您投资时会关注宏观经济形势吗？",[827,1228,1229],{},"大道：主要看公司本身。好公司虽然也会受到大环境影响，但因为好公司大多比较健康，往往受到的影响比平均要小，回来的时候也经常是更快的。",[827,1231,1232,1233,1235,1236,1238,1239,1241,1242,1244],{},"就",[833,1234,858],{},"而言，一段时间内，",[833,1237,858],{},"的销售肯定是会受到房地产行业景气，商业景气以及禁酒令的影响的，但长期来讲i",[833,1240,858],{},"很可能解决了在哪里能买到真",[833,1243,858],{},"的问题，似乎打开了普通老百姓消费的口子。这么多家庭，每年逢年过节来上一瓶的概率还是蛮大的。蚂蚁雄兵的力量是非常大的哈。",[827,1246,1247,1248,1250,1251,1253,1254,1256],{},"对于想靠着买个票马上就涨速赚一票的人来说，",[833,1249,858],{},"很可能不合适，因为没人知道",[833,1252,858],{},"最后会掉到哪里。但10年后来看，今天的",[833,1255,858],{},"是真的不贵哈。（2026-01-22）",[827,1258,1259,1260,1174],{},"网友：段总好！请问您怎么看待10年后的",[833,1261,858],{},[827,1263,1264,1265,1267],{},"大道：我对",[833,1266,858],{},"的观点10年后大概率不会有啥变化。（2026-04-10）",[827,1269,1270,1271,1273],{},"网友：大道，",[833,1272,858],{},"业绩怎么看？",[827,1275,1276,1277,1279,1280,1282],{},"大道：",[833,1278,858],{},"还是那个",[833,1281,858],{},"啊，what's your problem（问题）？（2026-04-17）",[827,1284,1285],{},"网友：段哥，最近看茅台，有一个长期困惑：茅台拥有顶级现金流和商业模式，我个人认为它现在只是在正经历一轮严肃的“库存下行周期”。想请教您，在您的视角里，像茅台这种强品牌壁垒的公司，它的“周期”与普通制造业（如周期股）的周期，本质上有什么区别？当这种极强护城河碰上周期下行时，您会如何用“生意视角”来评估它当前的买入时机？感谢指点",[827,1287,1288],{},"大道：“周期”是炒股票的人的观点。你买的时候如果真的看懂了，真的打算拿10年或更长，你会明白茅台的“周期”的。（2026-09-11）",[827,1290,1291],{},"网友：段总您好，请问长期持有贵州茅台股票，需要考虑未来可能的极端气候频发，对高粱产量影响，从而导致茅台酒产量下滑，成本提高的利空因素吗？这种气候利空因素对茅台有多大影响？投资者应该重视吗？谢谢！",[827,1293,1294],{},"大道：当然要考虑啊，同时还要考虑陨石撞地球，海平面上涨等等，这些因素之外还需要考虑人们很可能因为健康因素不再喝酒了……。话说回来， 如果茅台产量下降了真的是利空吗？（2026-09-11）",[822,1296,1298],{"id":1297},"第三节-估值方法与价格判断","第三节 估值方法与价格判断",[827,1300,1301],{},"网友：段总，比如无形资产很值钱的企业，你会不会给高点价格？像贵州茅台这种不可复制的企业，如果价格不出高点话即使在熊市也很难买到！",[827,1303,1304,1306,1307,1310],{},[833,1305,835],{}," 呵呵，市场有时挺明白的。便宜货不是随时都有，更不是看完巴菲特的书就能马上找到的。",[833,1308,1309],{},"茅台不是有过很便宜的时候吗？便宜的股票当然是很难买到的，但早晚都会出现在市场上。"," （2010-03-19）",[827,1312,1313,1315],{},[833,1314,858],{}," （2010-07-03）",[827,1317,1318],{},"谁能在评论里简单描述一下茅台的投资价值及其SWOT分析？我将挑一些转贴在此。转的帖不代表我的观点。",[827,1320,1321],{},"加忠对我的日志《茅台》评论道",[827,1323,1324],{},"投资价值：",[827,1326,1327],{},"1、茅台酒生产周期5年，现在库存酒价值：75000吨约1000亿元。",[827,1329,1330,1331,1334,1335,1167],{},"2、企业",[872,1332,88],{"href":1333},"\u002Fxianjinliu","100多亿（减",[872,1336,64],{"href":1337},"\u002Ffuzhai",[827,1339,1340,1341,1343],{},"3、未来",[872,1342,88],{"href":1333},"折现在：未来20年每年产能23000吨。约300亿，净利润120亿，按6%折现1350亿。",[827,1345,1346],{},"茅台的价值=1000+100+1350=2450亿，现在市值是1200亿。",[827,1348,1349],{},"SWOT分析：",[827,1351,1352],{},"优势：茅台生产环境不可复制，国宴用酒、历代领导摧宠形成国酒地位，1915年巴拿马金奖，酒品质是最好的，有定价权，企业文化好。",[827,1354,1355],{},"劣势：产能受地理环境限制，公司有啤酒、葡萄酒产业，未来可能搞房地产，我不看好。",[827,1357,1358],{},"机会：未来可能保持增长，现在茅台镇改造增加产能。",[827,1360,1361],{},"威胁：现在五粮液、郎酒、洋河、1573等酒崛起，竞争激烈。未来人们可以更加关注健康，少量饮酒。",[827,1363,1364],{},"网友d：老巴说过“如果你在错误的路上，奔跑也没有用”，看来我在奔跑。“如果能从历史推测未来，那么最富有的人都是图书管理员”。pe是过去和未来没有关系，而投资就是要搞懂未来。如果给茅台给20pe也就是说我看懂了20年的盈利模式，那就要做好持有20的准备，20年才能回本好漫长的路。",[827,1366,1367],{},"老巴说“经验表明，经营盈利能力最好的企业，经常是那些现在的经营方式与5年前甚至10年前几乎完全相同的企业”，有点像茅台。",[827,1369,1370,1372,1373],{},[833,1371,976],{}," ：千万不要被pe误导，因为pe是个历史数据，未必能说明未来。",[833,1374,1375],{},"我说的pe一般指的是相对于未来长期实际利润的pe，不是一般财报上的那个pe。",[827,1377,1378],{},"你愿意给多少pe完全取决于你自己的能力或者说你自己的资金的机会成本，其实和市场无关。（2011-10-01）",[827,1380,1381],{},"网友：段总：200元的茅台你认为大概是几折的内在价值？",[827,1383,1384,1386,1387,1390],{},[833,1385,835],{}," 假设茅台是一家非上市公司，现在手里有200块钱，要么放银行里，要么放茅台上，要么放别的投资，看看10年后的差异就知道折头了。所以多少折和自己的能力圈有关，如果自己能力圈内有比茅台更好的，那你买茅台在",[872,1388,115],{"href":1389},"\u002Fjihuichengben","上就不合算，谈不上折头。（2013-02-01）",[827,1392,1393],{},"网友：贵州茅台（600519）周四盘后发布年报，公司2012年实现净利润133.08亿元，同比增长51.86%。拟采取每10股派发现金股利64.19元的利润分配预案。",[827,1395,1396,1398],{},[833,1397,835],{}," 期内公司实现营业收入264.55亿元，同比增长43.76%；实现每股收益12.82元，同比增长51.86%。",[827,1400,1401],{},"2012年公司生产茅台酒及系列产品基酒42824.38吨，同比增长8.33%。",[827,1403,1404],{},"公司在年报中表示，预计2013年度公司实现营业收入同比增长20%左右。（2013-03-29）",[827,1406,1407],{},"网友：可惜买早了。（2013-04-01）",[827,1409,1410,1412],{},[833,1411,835],{}," 贵不贵要用用五年十年的眼光看，没办法绝对知道市场短期到底会怎么样的。如果没办法看懂五年十年就不应该碰，不要因为过去到过的价钱做决定。（2013-04-01）",[827,1414,855,1415,1417,1418,1420,1421,1423],{},[833,1416,858],{},"2012年有1787万应收账款，这对",[833,1419,858],{},"应该没有影响吧！不都说",[833,1422,858],{},"是先付款再发货，而且去了要排队。",[827,1425,1426,1428],{},[833,1427,835],{}," 一千多万的应收可能是某种特殊情况，但相对总的营业额而言可以忽略。（2013-04-02）",[827,1430,1431,1432,1434],{},"网友：反三公把年份酒给反没了，我很认同。很多调研的人把自己的调研结果写出来，与你判断一致（你是不是也看了这些信息并认可？），市场上还有一个大疑问：",[833,1433,858],{},"的预收款下降很厉害！我认为，预收是之前就确认完的收入，虽然下降厉害（也就是现在经销商打款不强烈），但销售依然能实现稳定，尤其是在年份酒滞销的情况下完成的。销售稳定才是基础。",[827,1436,1437],{},"其次，公司开放经销权，有利于经销的竞争，更有利于消费者买到实惠、货真的好酒！所以，从今后10年看，基本上还是可以安心睡觉的！至于收益能到多少，那是天知道的事情！",[827,1439,1440,1442,1443,1445],{},[833,1441,835],{}," 如果人们明白大部分生意实际上是没啥预收款的时候，人们会很喜欢",[833,1444,858],{},"的。下降表示还有，只是过去太难拿到货，所以很多人愿意付预收款，现在不太需要了。",[827,1447,1448],{},"网友：利润是算出来的，净利润是增长了只是预收款从50.9亿同比下降到28.6亿呵呵。",[827,1450,1451,1458],{},[833,1452,1453,1454,1457],{},"段永平：投资最重要的还是要看",[872,1455,1456],{"href":1117},"生意模式","，不然的话大家就很容易只见树木不见森林，全部盯着眼前这一个月一个季度的波动来决定买卖的行为，这样是很难做投资的。"," （2013-04-18）",[827,1460,1461,1464],{},[833,1462,1463],{},"right business + right people + right price + time = good result。虽然这个不是投资的充分公式，但好结果却是个比较大概率的事件。"," （2013-04-20）",[827,1466,1467],{},"网友：近1-2年不可能再提价了，再说茅台现在量价齐升。",[827,1469,1470,1472],{},[833,1471,835],{}," 量价齐升，所以不可能提价了？什么逻辑？如果茅台能真正解决假茅台的问题，茅台这个价绝对还可以提。很多人不太买茅台的原因绝对不是因为贵，而是不知道在哪里可以肯定买到真的。买到假的时候人们是没太多办法解决的，总不能每次买的时候先打开喝一口吧？总不能把一整箱酒全部打开各喝一口吧？",[827,1474,1475],{},"有些卖假茅台的甚至用的办法是一箱真酒里混几瓶假的，利润率立刻就大幅度上去了。我现在甚至怀疑我上次在美国送检的茅台酒里都有可能有假的。（2013-04-23）",[827,1477,1478],{},"网友：段大哥说投A股非常难，是指A股大部分时间里都非常贵吗？",[827,1480,1481,1483,1484,1486],{},[833,1482,835],{}," 便宜或贵的说法取决于对公司10年后的状况的认识，很难在A股找到能看明白10年或以上的公司。我喜欢",[833,1485,858],{},"也是基于这点。（2013-06-21）",[827,1488,1489,1490,1492,1493,1495,1496,1498],{},"长期看，在人民币不能流通的前提下，",[833,1491,858],{},"这种",[872,1494,70],{"href":1117},"我愿意给20 倍的市盈率。未来10年",[833,1497,858],{},"如果可以做到平均每年利润100亿，今天这个价钱就不贵了。如果能高些就有利润了。不要太在意季报或半年报或年报啥的吧？（2013-08-31）",[827,1500,1501],{},"网友：平均年利润100亿，现在的市值为1800亿，那不是要18年以后才收回投资，和银行的利息差不多，价值还不贵，想了一天还是不明白，请教段大哥一下。",[827,1503,1504,1506],{},[833,1505,835],{}," 如果只有100亿，那买茅台就只能保本或微利了。愿意买茅台的人不会认为茅台长期只能赚100亿的。（2013-09-01）",[827,1508,1509,1510,1512],{},"网友：让暴风雨来得更猛烈些吧！",[833,1511,858],{},"140元了。",[827,1514,1515,1517],{},[833,1516,835],{}," “茅茅雨”哈。用5年10年的眼光看，中间的起跌都不是事儿。（2013-09-17）",[827,1519,1520],{},"网友：今天，茅台合作电商酒仙网淘宝官方店53°飞天茅台停售了，也不知道是不是卖断了！茅台目前仅1400亿市值，长城汽车市值也1490亿！这两个企业应该不是一个级别的，买入茅台睡大觉不是没有道理的。",[827,1522,1523,1525],{},[833,1524,835],{}," 两个企业比价是没有逻辑的。（2013-09-27）",[827,1527,1528],{},"网友J：茅台的基酒14万吨，其中飞天的基酒10万吨，按照819的出厂价格，价值1600亿左右，毛估估三折后为480亿，加上它的现金180亿，现在年净利润在100亿多点，现在市值1400亿，是不是比较便宜了？段总方便点评下吗？",[827,1530,1531,1533],{},[833,1532,835],{}," 难道每下降一块钱你都希望有人出来点评一下心里才觉得舒服么？（2013-09-28）",[827,1535,1536,1537,1539],{},"网友H：请问为什么两个企业比价是没有逻辑呢？如果是考虑两个企业的净",[872,1538,88],{"href":1333},"贴现，比价的逻辑是否成立呢？",[827,1541,1542,1544],{},[833,1543,835],{}," 这里我说的是不能因为某个公司股价虚高就认为另一个公司低估的。（2013-09-30）",[827,1546,1547],{},"网友：1、我对目前价格的茅台很感兴趣，但至今从未持有茅台，所以基本上不存在需要人肯定，更不会存在有了肯定这个股票，我心里就舒服的概念。",[827,1549,1550],{},"2、是想请教您下，我对茅台的估值是否合理。在请教您之前，您所有关于茅台的言论，我基本上都找来看了，也转摘了部分到自己新浪的博客上了。只是在茅台这个股票上，没有看到你有类似“雅虎、苹果、特斯拉电动等”那么详细的估值，您更多是从生意模式去回答大家，所以才有“段总方便点评下吗？”一问。当然，生意模式是最重要的。",[827,1552,1553],{},"3、看到您两个“难道”的回答，我知道了，您对这个票，不方便多说或者不想多说。",[827,1555,1556],{},"4、跟踪、学习您的博客3年以上了，受益匪浅！",[827,1558,1559,1561,1562,1565],{},[833,1560,835],{}," 嗯嗯，我可能没太认真看你问的是啥或者觉得自己以前说过了。",[833,1563,1564],{},"我觉得茅台的生意模式很难得，价钱合适就可以买，未必要等到很便宜。从10年以上的角度看，130或160或200差别其实没那么大"," 。（2013-09-30）",[827,1567,1568],{},"网友K：我的毛估估是10年量一倍，价一倍，今年150亿净利润，10年后600亿净利润，茅台市值可能能上万亿。",[827,1570,1571,1574],{},[833,1572,1573],{},"段永平：只买生意，不预测股价"," 。（2014-01-16）",[827,1576,1577],{},"网友S：对茅台这份半年报说几点看法：",[827,1579,1580],{},"一、年份酒和系列酒销量下降，53度飞天销量增长（53度飞天市场占有率提升，年份酒和系列酒以后能增长那是锦上添花）",[827,1582,1583],{},"二、预收款5.4亿，去年是30.4亿，少了25亿。（其实看预收款那是以前供不应求时的茅台，可还是有人盯着不放）",[827,1585,1586],{},"三、销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金140.58亿，去年是119.59亿，增长了百分之17。",[827,1588,1589],{},"四、国外收入3.13亿，减少百分之17.92。（离袁老板的三到五年国际上销量达到30%左右又远了点）",[827,1591,1592],{},"五、茅台现金210亿，存货130亿，今年利润150亿，现在市值1800亿．（这个价钱还是很便宜）",[827,1594,1595,1597],{},[833,1596,835],{}," 还没看财报呢，不过以前的也没看过。你说的这几点很好哈，简单明了，很能说明茅台依然不贵。（2014-08-29）",[827,1599,1600],{},"网友：茅台今年出招很少，说明最困难时期已经过去了吧。广州一个经销商说卖茅台能够有10%利润应该感到满意。消费者可以在大商场买，也可以在当地经销商处买，还可以在茅台网上商城买，价格理顺了，假酒的问题也慢慢在解决。",[827,1602,1603,1605],{},[833,1604,835],{}," 茅台有过困难时期？你是指股价？稳稳当当赚那么多钱的时期我们不应该叫其困难时期吧？（2014-10-17）",[827,1607,1608],{},"网友：段总，想到一个关于估值的问题：是任何企业都应该有个合理的估值，还是某些企业根本就无法估值？",[827,1610,1611,1613],{},[833,1612,835],{}," 大部分人说的估值都是指市场应该给什么价，这个概念的估值不说也罢。如果你不是这个意义上的估值，你自然会明白的。（2014-11-14）",[827,1615,1616],{},"网友X：段总对投资、对“价值”的这个思维总是这么清晰，没半点含糊，又受启发了。可不可以这样理解：估值即是自己要买入或卖出就出个价，是自己愿意真金白银买入持有或出让股票时出的价，也是根据自己能力看明白了之后才能给出的一个价，至于万万千千自己出不了价的公司、万万千千的其他人出的价，对自己而言并没啥估值不估值的意义，对吗？",[827,1618,1619],{},"我觉得当你真看懂一家公司，就能做好段总的这种思维清晰，决策明确，行为确切。",[827,1621,1622,1624],{},[833,1623,835],{}," 卖出可能会多一个因素，就是没人出价怎么办，尤其是想卖掉自己认为买错了的东西时。买入可以等，等不到没关系。其实对自己懂的公司估值没人们说的那么难，难是难在不容易找到自己想买的公司。我对苹果的“估值”就是个例子，只有两个方面，简单起来就几句话（大概）：",[827,1626,1627,1628,1631],{},"1．3000多亿市值，1000多亿",[872,1629,79],{"href":1630},"\u002Fjingxianjin","，一年净利润400亿，未来会到500亿或更多（看不懂这个的为什么要对苹果感兴趣？）；",[827,1633,1634],{},"2．苹果会将利润以合适的方式还给股东。",[827,1636,1637],{},"第二条在A股比较难解，这也是当时博友问我会选苹果还是茅台时，我毫不犹豫选苹果的原因。记得两年前有个朋友在球场碰到我，很沮丧地说他600多买了苹果，那时苹果一路在往下掉。我当时只说了一句：也许两年后你会觉得600块很便宜哈。（2014-11-15）",[827,1639,1640],{},"网友：1、我希望股份公司对终端销售价格能够有效合理的控制在1299元，减少中间销售环节存货炒作。",[827,1642,1643],{},"2、前几年茅台一路上涨到2000前多元，后来又回落到800元左右，市场销量严重萎缩，公司只能下达指标任务给经销商，这些问题都是由于市场炒作带来的后果，不能代表真正市场的需求，如果公司不能采取对终端销售价格得到有效合理的控制，茅台的价格可能会炒的更高，这一幕将会重演。",[827,1645,1646,1649],{},[833,1647,1648],{},"段永平：价格会被炒高的内在原因是真实的需求，"," 作为股东没啥好担心的，就算价格掉下来也是会再回去的。万一这一幕重演那一天真来了，请翻到这一页，想想内在原因，然后再多买点股票以及53度飞天，就像上次那样哈。（2017-08-17）",[827,1651,1652],{},"网友：请教段总现在方便评价茅台吗？（2017-12-12）",[827,1654,1655,1657],{},[833,1656,835],{}," 茅台还是茅台，生意模式刚刚的，10年后人们还是会说10年前那个价格真不贵。（2017-12-14）",[827,1659,1660],{},"网友：大道您好！非常感谢您的分享，我受益颇多。请问您一个估值问题，您是怎么考量给予茅台20倍pe的估值？感觉拿捏得很到位。",[827,1662,1663,1665],{},[833,1664,835],{}," 长期来说，存银行很难有5%的利息，所以茅台长期的回报能到20pe或更好的，茅台就不贵了。（2019-03-15）",[827,1667,1668],{},"网友：请问您对现在万亿市值的茅台怎么看，它市值已经很大了，它的天花板在哪里，它还有多少增长空间？现价买入长期持有可否？",[827,1670,1671,1673],{},[833,1672,835],{}," 茅台的生意模式很好。哪怕你以目前的价格买入，10年后看也至少应该比你把钱放银行好。当然，你也许能发现更好的机会，所以这是个机会成本的问题。（2019-03-15）",[827,1675,1676,1677,1679],{},"网友：现在",[833,1678,858],{},"30倍左右市盈率，是否考虑过买入时机问题？怎么看待市盈率这个指标？",[827,1681,1682,1684],{},[833,1683,835],{}," 假设有个公司现在市盈率是30但未来30年每年利润的平均增长率为10%，你怎么看待？（2019-04-25）",[827,1686,1687,1688,1690],{},"对有稳定成长的公司而言，这几乎就是道简单的算术题。10%的年增长率，假设投之前的盈利是1的话，30倍市盈率就意味着投入30，第10年的回报总和就是17.5，第20年是63（如果我没算错的话）。而且，",[833,1689,858],{},"10%的平均成长很可能低估了。",[827,1692,1693,1694,1696],{},"假如你有一笔现金，长期没有使用计划，你觉得投在哪里最舒服（合算）?每个人的",[872,1695,115],{"href":1389},"都不一样，自己看着办吧。（2022-05-02）",[827,1698,1699],{},"网友w：我是最近关注你的，依据你雪球对茅台的相关回复，我大概估算出茅台未来10年平均年盈利大概1000亿，这个数值是否和你的预估差不多呢？想验证一下，谢谢。",[827,1701,1702,1704],{},[833,1703,976],{}," ：没认真算过。毛估估想，大概未来10年的某一年赚到1000亿是有可能的，平均1000亿恐怕不容易。（2019-09-03）",[827,1706,1707],{},"网友b：大道，你以前对茅台一年的利润估计好像是300多亿，现在是1000亿。我的问题是利润估计是因为什么变化的？是根据茅台的发展还是什么？以前听你投资网易好像有类似的过程。麻烦分享下。",[827,1709,1710,1712],{},[833,1711,976],{}," ：时间点不同吧，而且我的意思总是“至少”…，所以至少300和至少1000并没有本质差别？总的来说，对好的生意模式而言，时间到了就都会有了。烂公司则相反，比如那个谁谁谁啥的。（2019-09-04）",[827,1714,855,1715,1717],{},[833,1716,858],{},"未来3年净利润预测与买点……",[827,1719,1720,1722,1723,1725],{},[833,1721,835],{}," 3年的估计并没有太大的意义，但如果用这个办法去保守估计一下10年20年的净利润，再和自己的",[872,1724,115],{"href":1389},"对比一下，其实就很容易判断这笔投资是不是合适于自己了。",[827,1727,1728],{},"假设一家公司未来20年的平均加权成长（复合增长）是1%，目前利润是100亿，市值1000亿，你愿意投吗（可能也比存银行好，但你的钱可能会有更好的去处）?如果这些数据变为：20年的利润加权成长-1%，3%，5%，10%，15%（大家可以假设任何比例去得出不同结论的），目前年利润80亿，市值2000亿，你愿意投吗？所谓愿意投的意思就是20年后看回来，你把钱放在你能放的最合算的地方了。",[827,1730,1731,1732,1734,1735,1738],{},"最简单的",[872,1733,115],{"href":1389},"对比其实就是银行利息和国债利息的最高值。如果无法大致判断一个企业未来10年20年的基本利润，其实作为一个投资人就不该碰这个公司，但",[872,1736,125],{"href":1737},"\u002Ftouji","是可以的。这里基本利润指的是至少能赚多少钱。如果能判断出来一家公司未来至少能赚多少钱后，其实就是个小学算术题了。所以投资其实就是要搞懂生意，无他。",[827,1740,1741],{},"简单但不容易就是这个意思。",[827,1743,1744,1745,1747],{},"以上发言和",[833,1746,858],{},"无关。",[827,1749,1750],{},"这里最有意思的一点是：20年的角度可以抹平一些（不是全部）不确定因素，提高投资的确定性。投资有风险指的是那些一直存在的不确定因素，所以拉长时间看会容易看很多。（2024-08-13）",[827,1752,1753,1754,1756,1757,1759],{},"大道没建议过任何人买",[833,1755,858],{},"。大道的意思是，如果你有闲钱，买",[833,1758,858],{},"大概率会比存银行合算，如果你是打算拿10年以上的话。",[827,1761,1762,1763,1765,1766,1768],{},"这个不意味着",[833,1764,858],{},"不会跌，也不意味着",[833,1767,858],{},"会比别的股票涨得快。（2024-10-26）",[827,1770,1771,1772,1774],{},"网友：我看大家真的不相信大道一直说的：现在买",[833,1773,858],{},"，10年后再看肯定是便宜的。",[827,1776,1777,1779],{},[833,1778,835],{}," 你看错了？大道说的是大概率比存银行合算，不是便宜的意思。万一你买了五年前的nvda的话，你要多赚很多的，如果你买了还居然拿住了的话。（2025-07-18）",[827,1781,1270,1782,1784],{},[833,1783,858],{},"的中报出了，您怎么看？",[827,1786,1787,1046,1789,1791],{},[833,1788,835],{},[833,1790,858],{},"出财报了？有什么好看的？（2025-08-13）",[827,1793,855,1794,1796],{},[833,1795,858],{},"销售价一直下降你就不担心吗？",[827,1798,1799,1801],{},[833,1800,835],{}," 你担心什么？（2025-10-14）",[827,1803,1804],{},"网友：大道前辈，一季度报表出来后，没见您说话。我个人的感觉是不惊喜，但不失望，改革必经之路。",[827,1806,1807,1808,1810,1811,1813],{},"大道：还没看呢，我本来就不太看",[833,1809,858],{},"的财报的。",[833,1812,858],{},"都是明牌了，没啥好看的。（2026-04-26）",[827,1815,1816,1817,1819],{},"网友：（一位金融专业研究生用两种增长假设给",[833,1818,858],{},"做现金流折现，分别算出每股约1.1万和2万元人民币，请教这样估值对不对）",[827,1821,1822,1823,1825,1826,1828],{},"大道：我给个假设吧：假设",[833,1824,858],{},"未来20年的年利润都是不涨不跌的，你的闲钱是愿意存银行还是买",[833,1827,858],{},"？当然这个假设大概率会是错的，只是想抽象一个概念来帮助思考而已。（2026-05-15）",[827,1830,1831,1832,1834,1835,1837,1838,1840,1841,1843,1844,1846,1848,1849,1851,1852,1854,1855,1857,1858,1860,1861,1174],{},"网友：当",[872,1833,70],{"href":1117},"与",[872,1836,115],{"href":1389},"发生冲突的时候要怎么想？比如",[833,1839,1130],{},"一年的盈利是",[833,1842,858],{},"的10倍，我认为",[833,1845,1130],{},[872,1847,70],{"href":1117},"更好，但从未来10年看回来，当下买",[833,1850,1130],{},"的收益率要低于买",[833,1853,858],{},"的。是把",[872,1856,70],{"href":1117},"放在第一位，等",[833,1859,1130],{},"有了好价钱，还是先买",[833,1862,858],{},[827,1864,1865],{},"大道：我猜你其实是想问谁的股价能涨得更好？这个结论是很难知道的。投资衡量的应该是你投入的资金部分（比方说100万）在未来某个时段（比如10年或者20年）你在公司所占比例赚到的钱的多少。",[827,1867,1868,1220,1870,1055,1872,1874,1875,1877,1878,1880],{},[833,1869,1130],{},[833,1871,858],{},[872,1873,70],{"href":1117},"其实都很强，假设你的钱既能买",[833,1876,858],{},"也能买",[833,1879,1130],{},"的话（很多人其实做不到），你的投入所对应的公司份额谁赚的钱多谁就是更便宜了。（2026-05-17）",[827,1882,1883],{},"网友：今天满仓了茅台，用持有十年来买公司，只有茅台让人放心。",[827,1885,1886],{},"最坏来看茅台现在1300亿市值，今年赚140亿，明年降百分之二十，110亿，后年降百分之十，也就是100亿，十三倍市盈率，十年利润到300亿，市盈率给13倍，也就是3900亿，加上每年分红百分之五到六，每年有百分之三十八的回报，也许我的预期还不够悲观，那就把每年回报率再下降百分之十八，也有百分之二十，很知足了！",[827,1888,1889,1891],{},[833,1890,835],{}," 如果茅台10年内能有300亿的年利润，今天这个价当然就很便宜。",[827,1893,1894],{},"网友：贵州茅台 泡泡玛特\n段总好，我就是一个投资小白，关注您许久，了解了一点皮毛，买股票就是买公司等等。\n最近比较焦虑，我没有球友那么有钱，投资的钱只有几十万，又不甘心放银行，也想着能够十年二十年能有个10倍20倍的收益。以及长期投资带来的成就感和满足感。\n最近比较痛苦，让我痛苦困惑的地方就是，成熟期有定价权的贵州茅台为什么跑不过泡泡玛特类的新公司呢？换句话说就是想要高收益就必须要找到一个既要高增长又要有定价权的公司？\n茅台和腾讯我都拿了4年左右了，我的理想状态是不看股价，只看分红。问题是按现在的分红率和股价，贵州茅台什么时候股息率能够达到10%以上？（净利润达到2000亿以上）谢谢",[827,1896,1897],{},"大道：我对什么时候这种事情从来都不擅长的。（2026-08-24）",[827,1899,1900],{},"网友：大道您好，这个假设有点意思。现在买茅台，10年后会不会大概率也是这样。谢谢！",[827,1902,1903],{},"大道：除非经济特别火，不然未来10年再涨10倍的可能性不大，但大概率比拿着现金或者存银行要好。（2026-08-28）",[827,1905,1906],{},"网友：按现在的股价，如果长期不变，茅台完全有能力把自己从市场上“买回来”。",[827,1908,1909],{},"大道：大概13-15年？（2026-08-28）",[827,1911,1912],{},"网友：段总，茅台十年后净利润大概会到多少？能到2000亿嘛",[827,1914,1915],{},"大道：没人能回答这个问题，因为变量很多啊。（2026-08-29）",[827,1917,1918],{},"网友：之前有个网友问过您说十年后茅台利润赚到1800亿概率多大？您说赚不到的概率很低，可谓是很笃定的态度。现在您同样回答了十年能否赚到2000亿这一差不多的问题，但您现在观点是‘不好说’，这是否意味着，相较于两年前您那次回答的时候，当下您对茅台的成长性、确定性已经有所下修？",[827,1920,1921],{},"大道：我其实说啥你也不会信的。如果你认为现在年轻人都不喝茅台了，茅台早晚是会卖不动的，那你为什么会来问这个问题？如果你不同意上面那个观点，那你为什么会有这个问题？如果我说2000亿也有机会，你们下个问题就会是2100有机会吗？ 你需要懂概率是什么意思啊！其实没人能够知道的很具体的，你买哪家公司都有可能错，那你到底买哪家呢？依据什么？（2026-09-04）",[822,1923,1925],{"id":1924},"第四节-买入增持与持有","第四节 买入、增持与持有",[827,1927,1928,1930],{},[833,1929,835],{}," 进入九月份了。（注：2013-09-01）",[827,1932,1933],{},"突然想起一个武侠小说的场景：静静在一旁看着大家乱斗了一年的那个……",[827,1935,1936],{},"该出手了？我说得是苹果该出东西了，和茅台没啥关系。茅台过去一年招还出得少么？不过，能有个跌停确实不错。市场有时候是可以跌到很难相信的地步的，这也是不能用margin的原因。",[827,1938,1939],{},"网友：段总好像在good kind of business，good people，good price．基础上又加了一个good time，想问一下这里是指好的买入时机呢，还是指长久地持有，还是指其他，还请段总有空聊一下。",[827,1941,1942,1944],{},[833,1943,835],{}," 好时机可遇不可求，不要太在意。（2013-09-21）",[827,1946,1947],{},"网友：既然A股在第二条比较难解，那请问段总为什么还会买茅台？",[827,1949,1950,1952],{},[833,1951,835],{}," 博客里说过了，人民币投资里我能理解的最好标的就是茅台了。（2014-11-15）",[827,1954,1955],{},"网友：段老师：1、好像几年前季老爷子也承认普茅放够年数比茅台年份酒好喝的观点，这与段老师实践所得是相符的；2、现在茅台不但有些地方卖断货了，且单价也普遍涨到1000元以上了；3、两个月前我买了两瓶，单价是900元，且是2015年出厂的；两月前当年出厂的普茅不到900元的还能够买到。",[827,1957,1958],{},"4、段大哥及我们股东最担心的假酒问题已得到有效的解决，段总的每瓶茅台（除小瓶的外）都应有身份的想法得到完全实现，“国酒茅台防伪溯源系统”这两年已全部上线，下载即可，且打开手机的NFC功能扫一下每瓶的酒盖即出现此瓶酒的全部信息，这种保健因子值得点赞。",[827,1960,1961],{},"5、我的万科正愁着呢，本来准备拿长点的，但有人“入侵”后万科的经营及文化有可能发生变化，虽然现价也仅10倍多点的PE（未除去账上的600亿的货币资金），不贵，再涨的话卖不？我拿不住了。请老师及众同学予以解答。",[827,1963,1964,1966],{},[833,1965,835],{}," 如果这个“国酒茅台防伪溯源系统”已经成熟了的话，茅台最大的威胁就没了。对于万科，我没观点，但如果你心里不踏实的话为何不换茅台？（2016-08-07）",[827,1968,1969,1971],{},[833,1970,835],{}," A股我们主要是持有茅台，用10年的眼光看，茅台依然不贵啊，上个礼拜绿一下或者上个季度绿一下不是什么了不起的事情。（2018-09-08）",[827,1973,1974],{},"网友：现在买入茅台是比较好的选择吗？（2018-10-29）",[827,1976,1977,1979],{},[833,1978,835],{}," 比较好的意思是跟你自己的机会成本比，所以只有你自己才可能知道现在是不是比较好。个人观点，现在买入过10年看显然大概率会比存银行好。（2018-10-29）",[827,1981,1982],{},"网友：段总，您好！一般有三个卖出理由：企业经营发生恶化，高估，有更好的标的。请教一下，这三个信号没有出现的时候您是否满仓穿越牛熊？还是会根据市场状况（比如经济下行、中美摩擦等）进行部分股票部分现金的配置？",[827,1984,1985,1987],{},[833,1986,835],{}," 我一般都是满仓的。好不容易碰上的好公司不要轻易因为价钱可能高了一点点就卖掉了。比如，很多人问我，茅台700多了你怎么还不卖呢？这些人大多可能300多就已经卖掉了，其实一直后悔中呢。（2019-03-15）",[827,1989,1990,1991,1993],{},"网友：曾经在A股满仓民生银行的我，现在看着满仓的",[833,1992,858],{},"，感谢大道。",[827,1995,1996,1998,1999,2001],{},[833,1997,835],{}," 让我想起很多年前投了很多钱在民生银行的一个熟人，那时要都换成",[833,2000,858],{},"现在应该会舒服很多哈。（2023-03-15）",[827,2003,2004,2005,2007],{},"网友：如果现在",[833,2006,858],{},"涨到60倍市盈率，您是否考虑先卖出一部分？或者在什么情况下才会卖出？",[827,2009,2010,2012],{},[833,2011,835],{}," 目前还没有考虑过卖出的问题。好公司很难找，找到就先好好拿着吧。",[827,2014,2015],{},"跟眼前多少倍市盈率其实没关系，但跟未来30年的生意状况有关。（2023-05-14）",[827,2017,2018,2020,2021,2023],{},[833,2019,835],{}," 今天买了点",[833,2022,858],{},"。（2025-10-13）",[827,2025,2026],{},"网友：阿段，如果需要在A股市场矮子里面选将军的话，你会选择那几只？",[827,2028,2029,2031,2032,2034,2035,2037],{},[833,2030,835],{}," 我说过，两只啊。一只是",[833,2033,858],{},"，另一只也是",[833,2036,858],{},"。（2025-10-19）",[827,2039,2040,2041,2043],{},"网友：今天买到了跟大道成本很接近的",[833,2042,858],{},"。",[827,2045,2046],{},"大道：140？（2025-12-08）",[827,2048,2049],{},"网友：应该是大道最近一次加仓成本。",[827,2051,2052],{},"大道：这个是正解哈。（2025-12-09）",[827,2054,2055],{},"网友：你要买就买，说什么对他产生100%信任。你这么说分明就是想甩锅给他。",[827,2057,2058],{},"大道：是啊，也不想想他怎么能爬到巨人的肩膀上的，不怕摔下来么？（2026-01-15）",[827,2060,2061,2062,2064],{},"网友：最近没听到大道老师增持",[833,2063,858],{},"的声音了，甚是想念。",[827,2066,2067],{},"大道：看看我以前说的就好。（2026-01-21）",[827,2069,2070,2071,2073],{},"网友：大道昨天都加了（",[833,2072,858],{},"），今天早上梭哈了，作为大道老师的信徒，唯一能做的就是跟和梭哈了，几年后看结果。",[827,2075,2076,2077,2079],{},"大道：你着哪门子急？拿别人壮胆是没有用的。",[833,2078,858],{},"一时半会儿也许不会“反弹”，你这种梭哈心态很可能会难受很久的。（2026-01-22）",[827,2081,2082,2083,2085],{},"网友：段总你发这么多关于",[833,2084,858],{},"的帖子是想稳住股民的军心害怕踩踏，还是你急了？",[827,2087,2088],{},"大道：哈，我为什么会急？我是希望多跌一点的。你很急吗？（2026-01-22）",[827,2090,2091],{},"网友：能到1200嘛，我想买。",[827,2093,2094],{},"大道：什么都有可能的，但真到1200的时候，你大概率也是不会买的。（2026-01-22）",[827,2096,855,2097,2099],{},[833,2098,976],{},"曾说：“投资很简单，但不容易。”不容易就在于你要忍受寂寞。当你买入后下跌，周围充满嘲笑或恐慌的声音时，告诉自己：这是超额收益的来源。如果每个人都同意你的观点，这只股票就不可能便宜。",[827,2101,2102,2103,2105,2106,2108],{},"大道：“不容易”指的是看懂生意不容易，“简单”说的是只有看懂生意是重要的。别人怎么看跟你有什么关系？当股票下跌的时候，你心里充满了恐惧，那就说明你买了你不懂的公司。你目前看上去并不懂",[833,2104,858],{},"，估计",[833,2107,858],{},"再跌个10% 你可能就“坚持”不住了。（2026-01-29）",[827,2110,2111,2112,2043],{},"网友：如果可以有无限的子弹，我愿意买下整个贵州",[833,2113,858],{},[827,2115,2116,2117,2121],{},"大道：说的好像人家真愿意卖似的",[2118,2119,2120],"span",{},"大笑","。老巴当年还真问过，人家不卖哈。（2026-01-29）",[827,2123,2124],{},"网友：（分享《大道》的内容）",[827,2126,2127],{},"“就算价格掉下来也是会回去的，万一这一幕又重演，请翻到这一页，然后多买点53度飞天和股票，就像上次一样”，有多少人看到过这一页的。",[827,2129,2130,2131,2133],{},"大道：我看了后也买了点",[2118,2132,2120],{},"。（2026-01-29）",[827,2135,2136,2137,2139,2140,2143,2144,2043],{},"网友：i",[833,2138,858],{},"天天抢不上有什么担心的，真要到1200了我拿",[833,2141,2142],{},"腾讯","换",[833,2145,858],{},[827,2147,2148],{},"大道：这两天我用神华换了些。（2026-01-29）",[827,2150,2151,2152,2154,2155,2157],{},"那天卖了一些神华（港股）换了一些",[833,2153,858],{},"，没想到机会窗口那么小。其实这个交易还蛮麻烦的，要先卖了港股，再换成人民币再买",[833,2156,858],{},"。然后刚刚开始忙就收盘了。上午11:30收盘这个规矩让我很麻烦哈。（2026-02-03）",[827,2159,2160],{},"网友：今天的大涨不会是大道的账户买上去的吧。",[827,2162,2163],{},"大道：今天真没买，一看涨了很多就跑来看雪球了。（2026-01-29）",[827,2165,2166],{},"网友：当时看的时候印象深刻，我还以为以后不会碰到掉下来的情况了呢。没想到真的碰到了。",[827,2168,2169],{},"大道：以后还会有的。（2026-01-30）",[827,2171,2172,2173,2175,2176,2179],{},"网友：段总，不懂股票，看你视频半仓买了",[833,2174,858],{},"，另外一半想买",[833,2177,2178],{},"伯克希尔","，现在的价格适合全部买进吗？买了就不想操作了，就一直放着。现在买入还是等下跌再一次性买入？",[827,2181,2182],{},"大道：如果你知道有下一波跌的话，你当然等下一波跌啊，不然你傻啊？! （2026-02-02）",[827,2184,2185,2186,2188,2189,2191],{},"网友：我是一个工作稳定、28未婚的。想拿房抵押来投资",[833,2187,858],{},"，抵押银行利息三个点，留一部分用来还利息就行了，五年后还本金，",[833,2190,858],{},"股价会不会跑赢银行利息？对此阿段怎么看？",[827,2193,2194],{},"大道：你有一定机会破产，也有一定机会赚钱，你随意哈。（2026-02-02）",[827,2196,2197,2198,2200,2201,2203,2204,2206],{},"网友：买",[833,2199,858],{},"睡觉确实要安心点，但是",[833,2202,858],{},"的增长感觉没",[833,2205,2142],{},"高呢，大道能都指点一下。",[827,2208,2209],{},"大道：要钱还是找你爸妈吧，我该说的都说过了。（2026-02-04）",[827,2211,2212,2213,2215,2216,1174],{},"网友：怎么没见您买",[833,2214,858],{},"抄",[833,2217,858],{},[827,2219,2220,2221,2223],{},"大道：抄",[833,2222,858],{},"在200还是120？其实10年后1400也大概率是个好价钱。（2026-04-28）",[827,2225,855,2226,2228,2229,2232],{},[833,2227,858],{},"还没买够，但是已经涨起来一些了，",[872,2230,101],{"href":2231},"\u002Fanquanbianji","降低，但是股息率依旧高于银行利息，这时候该如何操作？",[827,2234,2235,1046,2237,2239],{},[833,2236,835],{},[833,2238,858],{},"以前还更便宜呢。尽量往远处看吧，别老想着赚点快钱。",[827,2241,2242,2243,2245],{},"其实",[833,2244,858],{},"2500元左右时我也想过卖掉的问题，最后还是放弃了。因为卖掉后真不知道拿着现金干什么，利息还那么低，人会焦虑的，不合算。",[827,2247,2248,2249,2251],{},"清仓",[833,2250,858],{},"不是问题，问题是拿着那笔钱都干嘛了。绝大部分人很可能是躲过了和尚但没躲过庙？",[827,2253,2254,2255,2257,2258,2260,2261,2263],{},"其实你卖了",[833,2256,858],{},"去换",[833,2259,2142],{},"是个过得去的决定，因为最后你也不会亏到哪里去。很多人卖了",[833,2262,858],{},"然后买了比如“假布斯”之类再也回不来的东西才是真的惨了。",[827,2265,2266],{},"网友：好吧！我可能是之一，我是2009买的茅台一直拿到现在，这一路过来确实不容易，不过我总是想是什么资产我可以放心拿一辈子，想来想去最放心的还是茅台！",[827,2268,2269],{},"大道：哈，有啥不容易的？股价掉了么？你就当买了个房子一直在收租，根本就不知道能卖多少钱就好（2026-08-28）",[822,2271,2273],{"id":2272},"第五节-分红回购与资本配置","第五节 分红、回购与资本配置",[827,2275,855,2276,2278],{},[833,2277,858],{},"拥有的现金是否存在没有被有效利用而贬值的可能？",[827,2280,2281,2283],{},[833,2282,835],{}," 如果用不好贬得更快，不如分红。（2012-04-11）",[827,2285,2286],{},"网友：有个问题想问问你，茅台有这么多现金，想问问茅台公司为什么不提高派息率？",[827,2288,2289,2291],{},[833,2290,835],{}," 那你应该问茅台才对。不过，似乎茅台在a股已经算是最好的了，如果因为这个不喜欢茅台，大概a股就不知道能投啥。（2013-05-14）",[827,2293,2294],{},"网友H：如果你对茅台公司的扩产计划有所了解，也许你就可以对茅台目前的现金留存比例有所理解了：",[827,2296,2297],{},"1．茅台刚刚公布了原产地扩大到15平方公里的认证，将周围的中华村等地也纳入到茅台酒原产地，这在以前，只有茅台镇地面上的产酒才算茅台酒，以后中华村的产酒也算了；",[827,2299,2300],{},"2．那中华村在政府的支持下，原住民整体搬迁出去，腾出地方建设茅台酒车间和酒库，这需要花一大笔钱补偿原住民，以及花一大笔钱建设新酒窖和新酒库，这都是几年前就酝酿和计划的，茅台公司需要留钱为这个项目的建设；",[827,2302,2303],{},"3．即使中华村已经建设好了，投产了，这个地方的产酒也需要库存5年才可以出厂销售，建设期加上库存期需要8年以上的时间周期，5年期的每年生产都需要购买原材料，这也需要钱，茅台公司需要留足这个8年期周转的足够钱；",[827,2305,2306,2307,2309],{},"4．退一步讲，当中华村生产的新酒8年后上市了，这个对茅台公司来说新增量的酒8年以后好卖不好卖谁也说不准，好卖当然就会赚回",[872,2308,88],{"href":1333},"了，如果不好卖呢？茅台公司多留点钱预备最坏的情况也不算不明智；",[827,2311,2312],{},"5．当茅台公司现有可以认证为原产地的地盘都开发完了，又都步入到正常的销售循环期了，那时茅台公司再留过多的现金已经没用了，才应该加大分红比例，不过我觉得应该10年以后的事了。",[827,2314,2315],{},"仅供参考。",[827,2317,2318,2320],{},[833,2319,835],{}," 合乎情理。（2013-05-15）",[827,2322,2323],{},"网友Z：送股的意义何在？",[827,2325,2326,2328],{},[833,2327,835],{}," 长期而言，送股除了能增加一点交易费用外是没有任何意义的！（2014-03-25）",[827,2330,2331],{},"网友：贵州茅台3月24日晚间发布年报。与行业整体低迷形成反差，贵州茅台2013年实现总营收309.22亿元，同比增长16.88%；净利润151.37亿元，同比增长13.74%，扣非后的净利润达到154.52亿元，同比增15.30%。公司拟每10股派送红股1股、派发现金红利43.74元（含税），共分配利润46.45亿元。",[827,2333,2334,2336],{},[833,2335,835],{}," 分红好像比去年少了？",[827,2338,2339],{},"网友L：去年120亿净利润，分6.4元一股，今年150亿净利润，分4.37元一股和10股送一股。在去年这么严峻形势下，有这样的利润相当不错了，唯一不理解留310亿现金在手里，既没有大的支出项目，又不回购。",[827,2341,2342,2344],{},[833,2343,835],{}," 嗯，有点费解，可能是打算要用点钱？不然应该多分红，然后集团增持是正道。不过，这个分红也比利息好了。（2014-03-25）",[827,2346,2347,2349,2350,2353],{},[833,2348,835],{}," 利润增加的同时减少分红又没有特别的理由是件很奇怪的事情。3%的增长倒是容易理解：就是不会下降的意思！反正谁都搞不清到底会怎么样，",[833,2351,2352],{},"茅台这个3%的预测其实是个蛮聪明的做法，这个数字可以让茅台慢慢做自己该做的事情，领导们也就不着急加任务了。"," （2014-03-28）",[827,2355,2356,2358,2359,2362],{},[833,2357,835],{}," 前面提到苹果的回购问题，最后苹果真的像我认为的那样举债回购了（由于境外的钱暂时回不来）。",[833,2360,2361],{},"好公司是知道怎么花钱的那些公司。这点上网易不算好公司，账上躺太多现金。账上的现金不用是会贬值的！茅台在这点上做得也不太好，虽然他们比下还有很多“余”。"," （2014-06-06）",[827,2364,2365],{},"网友：假设苹果和茅台都是打五杆洞职业高手：1：苹果每一杆都打得又远又到位，导致经常打出：PAR、BIRDIE、EAGLE……（这样的选手就算偶尔不到位，也知道接下来会发生什么；比如在推出大屏的时间上，您坚信苹果一定会推出大屏）；2：茅台三杆打得远落点也不差，在产品这杆上是超牛，而在某些杆上却没有苹果那么到位，结果就是…（这样的选手能不能每杆到位有点说不好？",[827,2367,2368],{},"更别说什么时候到位了？）3：对于职业赛来说，一场18个洞的结果下来，差距还是不小的；这样的情况持续的时间越久（5年、10年……）差距越大；（好像有点复利的意思？）没有打过高尔夫的人在一个经验丰富的高手面前说了这么多，感觉自己是个认真的纸上谈兵的家伙；家边上有一个不错的练习场，周末先去感受一下；没有自己打拼过企业而投资，不踏实的地方就在这里，纸上得来终觉浅。",[827,2370,2371,1046,2373,1055,2375,2377,2378,2380,2381,2383,2384,2386,2387,2389],{},[833,2372,835],{},[833,2374,858],{},[833,2376,1456],{},"不错，但对赚到的钱的处理方式不尽如人意，",[833,2379,1130],{},"在这方面则是完美的。从这两年两家公司出现回购机会时完全不同的表现就可以看出这点。",[833,2382,858],{},"甚至有些滑稽的地方是分红居然还因为股价掉了而下降了。",[833,2385,1130],{},"对分红和回购策略的阐述是非常清晰的，作为股东基本可预期，而",[833,2388,858],{},"则会受到非股东因素影响。（2015-04-09）",[827,2391,2392,2393,2395],{},"“贵州",[833,2394,858],{},"拟回购60亿，上市23年来首次。”（新闻）",[827,2397,2398],{},"网友：果然如大道所说，现金淹没脖子的感觉不好受。可是，国内没有红利税，是不是直接分红更好点？",[827,2400,2401,2403],{},[833,2402,835],{}," 回购分红并没有本质差别，都好过公司把过多的钱拿在手里浪费哈。（2024-09-21）",[827,2405,2406,2407,2409],{},"网友：大道，您觉得",[833,2408,858],{},"拆股，是对的事情吗？ 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