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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":606,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":68,"date":9,"description":608,"editor":2881,"extension":2882,"meta":2883,"navigation":2884,"order":609,"path":2885,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2886,"seoDescription":608,"seoTitle":2887,"slug":607,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":843,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2888,"sourceStatus":2889,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2890,"stem":2891,"summary":608,"tags":2892,"type":435,"updatedAt":2895,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"__hash__":2896,"_collection":2897},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-pop-mart.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2872},"minimark",[821,826,835,838,845,848,855,858,874,884,887,890,898,901,904,914,921,924,927,930,933,942,948,951,954,966,969,972,975,978,981,984,987,990,993,996,1003,1013,1016,1023,1026,1029,1032,1035,1039,1042,1045,1048,1054,1057,1060,1067,1070,1073,1080,1095,1098,1104,1107,1110,1113,1116,1119,1122,1125,1128,1131,1134,1137,1140,1143,1146,1155,1158,1161,1167,1170,1173,1176,1179,1182,1185,1188,1191,1194,1197,1200,1203,1206,1209,1212,1215,1218,1221,1224,1227,1230,1233,1236,1239,1242,1245,1249,1252,1255,1258,1283,1286,1289,1295,1298,1304,1307,1310,1313,1320,1323,1326,1329,1332,1335,1344,1347,1350,1357,1372,1375,1378,1381,1384,1387,1390,1396,1399,1402,1405,1408,1411,1417,1420,1429,1432,1442,1445,1448,1451,1454,1457,1460,1463,1466,1469,1472,1475,1478,1481,1484,1490,1496,1499,1505,1508,1511,1514,1517,1520,1523,1526,1529,1532,1535,1538,1541,1544,1550,1553,1556,1562,1571,1574,1577,1580,1583,1589,1592,1597,1603,1606,1609,1612,1615,1618,1621,1624,1627,1630,1637,1649,1654,1667,1671,1682,1686,1704,1707,1710,1713,1716,1719,1722,1725,1728,1731,1734,1737,1740,1743,1746,1749,1752,1755,1758,1761,1764,1767,1770,1773,1776,1779,1782,1785,1788,1792,1803,1806,1809,1812,1821,1824,1827,1830,1833,1839,1842,1845,1851,1854,1857,1860,1866,1869,1872,1879,1882,1885,1888,1894,1897,1900,1906,1909,1912,1915,1918,1924,1927,1930,1933,1936,1939,1942,1945,1948,1951,1958,1961,1976,1979,1982,1985,1988,1994,1997,2003,2009,2012,2015,2018,2021,2024,2027,2030,2033,2036,2039,2042,2045,2048,2051,2055,2058,2061,2064,2067,2070,2073,2076,2079,2082,2085,2088,2091,2094,2097,2100,2103,2106,2112,2118,2121,2124,2127,2130,2133,2136,2139,2147,2150,2153,2156,2159,2162,2165,2168,2176,2179,2182,2185,2188,2191,2194,2199,2244,2249,2260,2263,2266,2269,2272,2275,2278,2281,2284,2287,2290,2293,2296,2299,2302,2305,2308,2311,2314,2317,2320,2323,2326,2329,2332,2335,2340,2348,2353,2374,2377,2380,2383,2386,2389,2392,2395,2398,2401,2404,2407,2410,2413,2416,2419,2422,2425,2428,2431,2434,2437,2440,2443,2446,2449,2452,2455,2458,2461,2464,2467,2470,2473,2476,2479,2482,2485,2488,2492,2495,2498,2501,2504,2507,2513,2520,2523,2531,2539,2542,2545,2548,2551,2563,2566,2572,2578,2584,2590,2593,2596,2599,2602,2605,2608,2611,2614,2617,2620,2623,2626,2629,2632,2635,2638,2644,2650,2656,2662,2669,2672,2675,2678,2681,2690,2693,2696,269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从“看不懂”到收回说法",[827,828,829,830,834],"p",{},"网友：大道老师是否能看懂泡泡玛特这个新消费，它被称为泡泡",[831,832,833],"strong",{},"茅台","。",[827,836,837],{},"大道：泡泡玛特这家公司的产品确实很有意思，founder也是个很有意思的人，他们能做到今天这样很了不起，但我看不懂10年后公司会怎样。（2025-08-23）",[827,839,840,841,844],{},"网友：好文，解读了",[831,842,843],{},"段永平","不是不看好泡泡玛特而是现阶段不买泡泡玛特，就是说观察我以后会买。打破了市场上的各种解读。",[827,846,847],{},"大道：我没看过！我只是觉得王宁绝不是靠运气走到今天的，但不意味着我能看懂人们为什么喜欢泡泡玛特。我也许已经过了能够理解这个产品的年纪了吧。人生很忙，看不懂的东西我是可以skip的。（2025-12-14）",[827,849,850,851,854],{},"网友：",[831,852,853],{},"小天才","手表也是潮玩。",[827,856,857],{},"大道：真的吗？有意思！我了解一下。（2025-12-14）",[827,859,860,861,865,866,869,870,873],{},"网友：能否请教您一个问题！泡泡玛特的",[862,863,70],"a",{"href":864},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","感觉也非常好啊！99（块）一个的毛绒大家都想要，而其他地方类似的东西19（块）都没人要。这是不是有点当年",[831,867,868],{},"苹果","与安卓的感觉？泡泡玛特2025年半年报的资产负债表也这么干净，几乎没有任何与经营无关的长期",[862,871,64],{"href":872},"\u002Ffuzhai","。公司没有研发费用，IP也不会跳槽或要求涨薪。",[827,875,876,877,880,881,883],{},"泡泡玛特的核心是传递美好，既包括挑选时的小心翼翼，又有开盒的惊喜。其他公司目前没见到什么能与其竞争的。此外，王宁的采访中所表达的想法几乎和《基业长青》非常相似，您也说他很厉害。泡泡玛特的欧洲业务也还没完全展开，难道它不能长期维持每年200亿港币的利润吗？请教一下您觉得泡泡玛特有什么地方看不懂呢？感觉有什么风险吗？（除了",[862,878,141],{"href":879},"\u002Fpinpai","切换成本和",[862,882,141],{"href":879},"粘性可能稍微差一点）",[827,885,886],{},"大道：如果你有足够多的钱，你愿意按市值把这家公司买下来吗？当你这么想的时候，你会比较容易想长远。我大致看过泡泡玛特，觉得他们确实蛮厉害的。不过，我依然无法理解人们为什么会需要这个东西，万一过两年大家都不要了呢？如果你能认为人们会一直需要，他们的业务会一直成长，那对你来说这当然是个还不错的投资。（2026-01-12）",[827,888,889],{},"雪球资讯：《主动降速、股价巨震，泡泡玛特的叙事到头了吗？》",[827,891,892,893],{},"链接： ",[862,894,895],{"href":895,"rel":896},"https:\u002F\u002Fxueqiu.com\u002FS\u002F09992\u002F381695181?scene=1036&share_uid=9908639148",[897],"nofollow",[827,899,900],{},"大道：经济学的“速度”实际上是物理里面的“加速度”。 投资买的是未来的总量，是物理里面的“速度”x“时间”得到的“总长度”，当然有点“加速度”会在单位时间里跑得更远。这两天花时间再看了看泡泡玛特，决定收回对方丈说的我不投资泡泡玛特的说法。（2026-3-30）",[827,902,903],{},"网友：真诚向您推荐2024年基于王宁的深度访谈书籍《因为独特》，推荐理由如下：",[827,905,906,907,910,911,913],{},"1.",[831,908,909],{},"巴菲特","和您聊",[831,912,868],{},"，“下次早点告诉我”。",[827,915,916,917,920],{},"2.王宁和您一样，一直在很努力做对的事，也在很努力",[862,918,28],{"href":919},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","；同事描述他不惮于否定自己；他深刻理解“欲速则不达”；他像您和马云一样，能够吸引身边的人才。",[827,922,923],{},"3.他和黄峥一样擅于看到本质，不过在“做一个好学生”上没有花太多时间。",[827,925,926],{},"大道：他现在的年纪已经很接近我退休时候的年龄了，我觉得他已经很明白了。不过我和他将来也许可以成为很好的朋友，因为我很欣赏他哈。不过我暂时还不想太接近他，我得先买够量再说。（2026-04-03）",[827,928,929],{},"大道：今天大致看完了《因为独特》，上午和下午还分别去看了Weltfield的泡泡玛特门店。门店只有大概60平米，生意确实很好，绝大部分是大人，而且老中比例很小，大概10%的样子。我怎么觉得泡泡玛特才是中国产品国际化的先驱呢？别的企业似乎还都没到这个水准。Right business, right people! Right price很重要也不常见但似乎又见到了。(2026-04-04)",[827,931,932],{},"网友：周末看到偶像买了泡泡玛特，有几个问题请教：",[827,934,935,936,938,939,941],{},"1.泡泡玛特",[862,937,70],{"href":864},"真的算是顶尖么，泡泡玛特产品本质不是消耗品，",[831,940,833],{},"喝一瓶少一瓶，labubu买一个放在那，一直也就在那了。",[827,943,944,945,947],{},"2.按成长股线性外推业绩容易产生致命失误，现在估值虽然不算贵，但真的搞不清楚未来两三年的增速在哪里，目前看主要增速在海外，但",[862,946,141],{"href":879},"认可度还有待考察。",[827,949,950],{},"3.泡泡玛特定价体系如果走奢侈品路线，应该控量提价，但之前不断的补货导致现在好像没什么特别高溢价的系列。",[827,952,953],{},"大道：我只是说我收回不投资泡泡玛特的说法，没说我已经买了呀，当然这也不意味着我没买。",[827,955,956,957,959,960,962,963,965],{},"我说的是王宁对商业的理解是顶级的，从没说过他们的",[862,958,70],{"href":864},"是顶级的，虽然我认为他们已经跑通了他们的",[862,961,70],{"href":864},"，长期看他们的",[862,964,70],{"href":864},"也还不错。王宁是一个勤于且善于思考并注重细节的企业家。",[827,967,968],{},"他比我强，因为我不太关注细节，很难成为一个好的CEO，所以早早退位给更能干的CEO们了。",[827,970,971],{},"我很欣赏王宁和他的team，不是很在意他们短期的成长，但我觉得他们未来会比现在好很多，it's still the beginning!",[827,973,974],{},"你先好好看看《因为独特》这本书吧，不要再提那些乱七八糟的意见了。至少我觉得目前我还没资格提任何建议，也许认真看个两三年后会有点啥想法也说不定。（2026-04-06）",[827,976,977],{},"网友：你没买泡泡呀，但是网上已经传开了，最近泡泡还在跌，好事，等个好价格。",[827,979,980],{},"大道：我没说我没买呀，我也没说我买了。（2026-04-06）",[827,982,983],{},"大道：打算买够不等于已经买了，但也不意味着还没开始买。后面不再回复关于泡泡玛特的事情了，该说的都说了。（2026-04-07）",[827,985,986],{},"大道：我也是看到这期财报后才真的认真研究了一下泡泡玛特，以前只是零星地看到一些王宁的只言片语和一些短视频。以前对王宁的印象就很好，但一直觉得这个生意离我太远，不容易理解，不知道可持续性会如何。我以前见过很多风靡一时的玩具，比如电子宠物，呼啦圈，魔方等等，一开始直觉觉得这个有点像那些东西，而且去年前年的PE还非常非常高。",[827,988,989],{},"我很好奇我对游戏的理解会不会在泡泡玛特这里再次得到回报。简而言之，我的泡泡玛特保险公司正式开张了。（2026-04-09）",[827,991,992],{},"网友：大道大概率比我们想得“清”。",[827,994,995],{},"大道：其实是因为大多数人根本就不愿意去想或者去学习。比如说，有几个在这里对泡泡玛特发表各种观点的人们是看过所有能找到的泡泡玛特的资料的？我发现如果看完所有你能找到的王宁的采访（包括视频），你对泡泡玛特的了解会比你以前知道的多得多。（2026-04-09）",[827,997,998,999,1002],{},"网友：段总，泡泡玛特出现您视线的时点是爆火后吗？还是您一直在观察中？另外具有投资价值是爆火后具备？还是一直缓慢增长的价值？我片面地看到泡泡玛特的话题大量爆发是在拉布布爆火和股价大涨后。其实我想问的是泡泡玛特的",[862,1000,58],{"href":1001},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","在哪一刻看出来的，难道必须是爆发后看到？谢谢段总回复。",[827,1004,1005,1006,1009,1010,1012],{},"大道：前两年就看了一眼，觉得这是家蛮有意思的公司，创始人年轻且极为明白，",[862,1007,135],{"href":1008},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","也很好，但当时有点贵，也不知道盈利到底会怎么样。最近这次财报有点厉害，居然真的可以有这么好的盈利。我现在已经不需要想这个",[862,1011,70],{"href":864},"是不是可以行得通的问题了，也已经想通了可持续性的问题。",[827,1014,1015],{},"当然，成长的过程都会有波折的，我会在未来慢慢地或者不慢地收集我想要的份额，除非我改变想法了。（2026-04-11）",[827,1017,850,1018,1022],{},[862,1019,1020],{"href":1020,"rel":1021},"https:\u002F\u002Fxueqiu.com\u002F6415253590\u002F383486286",[897]," （整理了大道关于泡泡玛特的发言）",[827,1024,1025],{},"大道：这个时间线是对的。这期财报的盈利激发了我的好奇心，连续花了好几天去理解这家公司，很久没有过这种兴奋感了。（2026-04-11）",[827,1027,1028],{},"大道：《因为独特》是我大学毕业后第一本读完了的书，这个评价怎么样？（2026-04-11）",[827,1030,1031],{},"网友：大道，你最初关注到泡泡玛特，是否跟李诞有关系？",[827,1033,1034],{},"大道：是因为三月的财报才开始认真关注的，和李诞无关。但王宁的微信真是李诞给我的。我买泡泡玛特这事李诞可能是最高兴的人之一，因为他事后告诉我，他一直认为我早晚会“入坑”的。（2026-09-12）",[822,1036,1038],{"id":1037},"第二节-情绪价值与潮玩需求","第二节 情绪价值与潮玩需求",[827,1040,1041],{},"网友：我特意问了老婆为啥买包，她说：1.因为不是人人都可以拥有它（物以稀为贵），类似男人爱表；2.用多年还可以保值，例如用了五年之后二手出还可以卖个好价钱。",[827,1043,1044],{},"大道：1.我就不爱表，所以不能理解。2. 过去二手价好所以未来也会好有可能是假象。（2026-01-12）",[827,1046,1047],{},"网友：段总，泡泡玛特的盲盒是有赌博属性的，这个不知道您有没有了解过。想买到自己喜欢的那个，需要在12个里面一直买。",[827,1049,1050,1051,1053],{},"大道：盲盒这种办法也不是什么产品都可以用的，谁能来个盲盒iPhone？来瓶盲盒",[831,1052,833],{},"？别的ip用盲盒也未必就能行得通？（2026-01-12）",[827,1055,1056],{},"网友：我觉得这是和游戏或者女士包包类似的另一种情绪需求，我是从我老婆身上观测到的，因为我去年买了一些泡泡的股票，所以也买了一些Labubu给 9 岁的女儿，但女儿的反应平平，反倒是我老婆喜欢上了。前两天马年新品发售，她提前蹲直播间抢购，也让我帮她抢，结果最后没买到，然后一整个晚上都不开心了，那种不开心就像答应给小朋友买的东西结果没买小朋友很难过是一样的。",[827,1058,1059],{},"我认为需求是会持续存在的，就像女士永远会需买包包一样。泡泡玛特的主要消费群体也是年轻女士。",[827,1061,1062,1063,1066],{},"大道：问题是我也不理解为什么女生们会买那么多没用的包包。我也不懂为什么那些“名画”可以卖到那么贵的价钱……这个世界有好多东西我搞不懂，也没打算搞懂所有东西哈，好在自己",[862,1064,33],{"href":1065},"\u002Fnengliquan","里也偶尔会有些机会。（2026-01-12）",[827,1068,1069],{},"大道：不知道为什么，看了财报后我突然想到了梦幻里面那些完全不加任何值（攻、防，速……）的衣服可以卖得那么贵还那么抢手，情绪价值这个东西真的有点意思。（2026-3-31）",[827,1071,1072],{},"大道：情绪价值上，他们显然是可以的啊！（2026-04-01）",[827,1074,1075,1076,1079],{},"大道：",[831,1077,1078],{},"小霸王","是有功能的，虽然玩游戏确实能提供情绪价值。要这么说，那所有东西归根到底都是在提供情绪价值了？我不知道该怎么具体分类，但功能性很强的产品也许不该归到提供情绪价值的类别里面吧？感觉泡泡玛特应该算是提供情绪价值的，艺术类的应该也算吧。感觉生活必需品以外的产品被归类到这类产品的机会比较大一些。（2026-04-02）",[827,1081,1082,1083,1086,1087,1090,1091,1094],{},"网友：大道我一直看你的书和",[831,1084,1085],{},"伯克希尔","问答录，也关注你对泡泡玛特的发言，我持有泡泡玛特已有四年，我有个问题想请教下，您近期对泡泡玛特看法的改变，是基于他的",[862,1088,101],{"href":1089},"\u002Fanquanbianji","呢？还是更底层的逻辑如认同投射可能是更持久的情绪？能看到十年后的样子？或是目前他的",[862,1092,115],{"href":1093},"\u002Fjihuichengben","最好？",[827,1096,1097],{},"大道：其实很简单，我突然想到梦幻了。我玩了大概7-8年梦幻，我觉得我是能理解的。人们喜欢就是喜欢，不需要不喜欢的人理解的，别人也理解不了。就像我喜欢打golf，不喜欢的人怎么想都是不能理解的。（2026-04-02）",[827,1099,1100,1101,1103],{},"网友：（认为大道对泡泡玛特",[862,1102,70],{"href":864},"的分析有偏差，应该是“艺术”而非“情绪价值”，艺术是人类永恒的需求，情绪价值是其结果）",[827,1105,1106],{},"大道：艺术难道不是提供情绪价值么？我怎么觉得所有艺术都是在提供情绪价值呢？ 电影音乐字画……，可惜我对艺术一无所知，小时候很可能错过了接受的窗口了。（2026-04-02）",[827,1108,1109],{},"网友：我有个没有想明白的点，LV的包能否借用盲盒形式售卖呢 ？",[827,1111,1112],{},"大道：卖几十块的话也许可以试试，但谁有兴趣买呢？ 功能性强的东西大概是不能用盲盒的，贵的东西应该也不行。泡泡玛特厉害的原因不是因为盲盒。市场上那么多卖盲盒的，有几个火的？想象一下你去苹果店，买个iPhone盲盒，先付5000块，有1%的概率开到iPhone18，其他的是iPhone17-iPhone6.这样的话，消费者会气疯的。你想不明白可能跟你对生意没有理解有关系。（2026-08-15）",[827,1114,1115],{},"网友：对我来说，泡泡玛特的业务没茅台简单，但比腾讯要简单些，业务简单些更容易理解。这三家都是好公司，只是对个人来说哪个更懂一些，哪个才敢重仓。",[827,1117,1118],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的生意其实是非常难理解的。我能突然get到这个点和我30多年前就开始玩游戏有很大关系。我觉得大多数人是很难理解这个生意的，但这不影响该喜欢泡泡玛特产品的人们继续喜欢他们的产品。（2026-08-15）",[827,1120,1121],{},"网友：哈哈，要不要搞一个电器盲盒，999块买一个电器，但具体是啥电器，得收到之后拆盲盒才知道。",[827,1123,1124],{},"大道：这个不太可能。电器是有功能的，你想买手机结果开了个剃须刀你还不得疯掉？（2026-04-16）",[827,1126,1127],{},"网友：之前看过王宁一段采访，他说：假如你是世界首富，家里的水龙头忘记关，白白流了一整天的水，你是会心疼的；但酒店门口的喷泉一直开着，你却不觉得浪费，因为它提供了情绪价值。",[827,1129,1130],{},"大道：我觉得水龙头和喷泉这个例子其实没那么合适，虽然他想说的道理可能是对的。我会关水龙头的原因一般是两个：一是怕浪费水，二是怕水漫金山。喷泉一般是循环水，确实只是个成本问题。（2026-06-01）",[827,1132,1133],{},"网友：大家在涂抹洗手液的间歇一般会关掉水龙头，主要是怕浪费。但是家里小朋友在水池边玩水的时候浪费的水其实挺多的，但是不心疼，因为小朋友玩水很开心，觉得这时候的水是有情绪价值的，所以不觉得浪费。",[827,1135,1136],{},"大道：这个例子可能更贴切？（2026-06-06）",[827,1138,1139],{},"网友：王宁访谈后面讲，在Molly头上装U盘会导致销量下滑，这一段听得很明白，道理一下子就清晰了。",[827,1141,1142],{},"大道：U盘这个例子很好。（2026-06-06）",[827,1144,1145],{},"网友：（问段是否已是泡泡玛特的用户，看不懂的东西怎么下手）",[827,1147,1148,1149,1151,1152,1154],{},"大道：我不喝",[831,1150,833],{},"不影响我买",[831,1153,833],{},"啊，我能看到别人是不是喜欢的。泡泡玛特也许要更难看懂一点点，毕竟我是习惯了做有功能产品的。不过，我确实觉得自己大致看懂了。（2026-06-23）",[827,1156,1157],{},"网友：泡泡玛特这些东西以后会不会像那种收藏品一样，时间越长越有价值？",[827,1159,1160],{},"大道：喜欢就是价值啊。（2026-07-06）",[827,1162,1163,1164,1166],{},"网友：很多评论说“泡泡玛特就是个毛绒玩具，没有什么值得好玩的，就是哄哄女人和小孩子”，有人回复“在女人和孩子面前，",[831,1165,833],{},"也没有什么好玩的”。",[827,1168,1169],{},"大道：“毛绒玩具”其实也是蛮讲究的。我一个朋友告诉我他为什么会买泡泡玛特的玩具。他说以前给小孩买玩具是有点提心吊胆的，因为不知道玩具的材料都是什么做的，现在可以很放心地买泡泡玛特的东西，堆满了小孩的卧室也不担心。（2026-07-13）",[827,1171,1172],{},"网友：泡泡玛特的好 就是它出了个月饼 让我觉得其他月饼都很土",[827,1174,1175],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的产品是有这个特点的。喜欢的人们超喜欢，不懂的人们很难看懂。（2026-08-13）",[827,1177,1178],{},"网友：大道，记得你曾说vision pro不是个need to have的产品，但是个nice to have的产品。突然想到，泡泡玛特的潮玩、网络游戏的皮肤，也可以用nice to have来描述？不同的是这些产品的单价比vision pro低多了\n您对这类生意，有比大多数人理解更深入的地方吧？",[827,1180,1181],{},"大道：对于真的喜欢的人们来说，泡泡玛特的产品绝对是must to have的。没有什么东西是所有人都must to have的，连iPhone都不是，我在硅谷是见过几个不用iPhone的有钱人的。很难理解一些不打golf的人们老是觉得别人不该打golf。我不钓鱼，但我可以理解那些喜欢钓鱼的朋友们的乐趣。（2026-08-18）",[827,1183,1184],{},"网友：段哥，不知道你有没有一种感觉，越看越会有一种情绪的共鸣。",[827,1186,1187],{},"大道：确实看着喜欢的。我还不能体会人们愿意花多少钱去买，但我觉得对价格敏感度不高且对产品有感觉的人群而言，泡泡玛特的产品确实值得买点儿。（2026-08-20）",[827,1189,1190],{},"大道：泡泡玛特\n刚刚试了一下价格，看来泡泡保险公司的生意也不好做了哈。（2026-08-27）",[827,1192,1193],{},"网友：段哥，你觉得拉布布labubu授权到期后会有风险吗？",[827,1195,1196],{},"大道：你觉得到期后的风险是什么？艺术家不肯续签了？（2026-08-27）",[827,1198,1199],{},"网友：是的，同行竟争导致续签费用太高或丢掉续签，毕竟此一时彼一时",[827,1201,1202],{},"大道：我觉得不续签是小概率事件。（2026-08-27）",[827,1204,1205],{},"大道：我查了一下， labubu版权已经属于泡泡玛特了，根本不存在续签问题。 现在的大多数IP都是版权归属公司， 作者还保留分成权，后期他们不参与创作了分成比例也会降低 。不好意思，我想当然了。（2026-08-27）",[827,1207,1208],{},"网友：段哥，我发现一个泡泡玛特小问题 :  在深圳刚好前几天，需要买两款产品送礼，提前跟最近距离店铺联系，怎么都联系不上，找了商场问号码停机。\n在泡泡玛特微信公众号查询了店铺和电话，打过去也是停机、关机。联系了其他门店泡泡玛特告知无法联系其他区域门店。\n泡泡玛特的微信公众号，寻找店铺这个环节不太好找，太隐蔽了。想把这个小问题反应给段总方便日后大家更方便找到店铺伙伴。谢谢段总",[827,1210,1211],{},"大道：大概率他们是不会提供电话的，不然还要安排人接。泡泡玛特店是需要客户来逛的，我支持不设电话哈。（2026-08-27）",[827,1213,1214],{},"网友：发现一个问题或者说现象，泡泡玛特基本没有广告，它的影响力和知名度基本是依靠自身不断辐射和扩大的，与传统产品的口碑效应也不一样，您是怎么理解的。",[827,1216,1217],{},"大道：他们确实广告很少。他们一贯如此，也确实行之有效。话说回来，他们广告也很难做的，太多品种了吧。据我所知，网红们喜欢晒的潮玩都是自愿的，喜欢才晒啊。你没见李诞还晒labubu吗？（2026-08-27）",[827,1219,1220],{},"网友：段哥，泡泡海外线上体验听说一般，是指物流还是缺货？线上的盲盒机也是阉割版本吗？",[827,1222,1223],{},"大道：物流还不错，可能指的是缺货吧。线上盲盒我没搞懂，我要买就买整盒的。（2026-08-31）",[827,1225,1226],{},"大道：人们对游戏的误解其实是延伸到了泡泡玛特这类产品上的吧？好多人以为这是小孩子喜欢的东西，其实大多数玩家也是大人，像游戏一样。人生其实就是在用时间换快乐（如果能够的话），网络游戏和泡泡玛特能够提供的情绪价值其实可能是最便宜的那种了。（2026-09-02）",[827,1228,1229],{},"网友：段总，线上抽盒机的快递速度很慢。\n然后要满一定金额才包邮，这个不是很友好。希望能反馈。",[827,1231,1232],{},"大道：邮寄费很贵吧？我在美国都是自付邮费，好像一盒就要15块美金。泡泡玛特的产品是轻抛货，体积很大，单位运费很高，这个很可能会影响线上销售的，除非买家对成本不敏感。（2026-09-03）",[827,1234,1235],{},"网友：一下子对大道说的具象化了\n高尔夫+labubu",[827,1237,1238],{},"大道：我的球包上就挂着一个拉布布一个Dimoo. 看着真的会开心一点的。（2026-09-12）",[827,1240,1241],{},"网友：泡泡的娃咋感觉要取代的是宠物呢？年轻人未来不生孩子要养泡泡的娃了嘛",[827,1243,1244],{},"大道：我其实就有点这个感觉。我觉得这个Dimoo像个1-2岁的萌娃，永远展示的是萌萌的样子，看着确实开心的。（2026-09-22）",[822,1246,1248],{"id":1247},"第三节-商业模式壁垒与持续性","第三节 商业模式、壁垒与持续性",[827,1250,1251],{},"网友：（询问大道如何看待泡泡玛特最近与一些家电公司合作生产家电产品）",[827,1253,1254],{},"大道：我还没有足够的时间去理解这件事情，但也没觉得这有什么特别不对的地方。我猜他们并不是要做小家电，他们只是让喜欢泡泡玛特产品的用户可以在小家电上也见到自己喜欢的东西？我猜他们大概只是找一些好的小家电放上自己的IP，原来的牌子应该会保留的吧？不管如何，过段时间就能明白了。（2026-04-02）",[827,1256,1257],{},"网友：（评论他人有关泡泡玛特帖子）你把Labubu去掉，再看看泡泡呢？",[827,1259,1260,1261,1263,1264,1266,1267,1266,1269,1271,1272,1275,1276,1266,1278,1266,1280,1282],{},"大道：假设",[831,1262,833],{},"53度飞天没人喝了？其实Labubu只占到小于40%，比飞天比例小很多了吧？如果把我投资的前几名去掉（没有",[831,1265,596],{},"，",[831,1268,868],{},[831,1270,833],{},"），那我就是个笑话（",[831,1273,1274],{},"芒格","说的）。但是，我能找到",[831,1277,596],{},[831,1279,868],{},[831,1281,833],{},"这样的公司，我就有能力还会有机会找到别的，只是没人知道是什么时候而已。",[827,1284,1285],{},"我要能像王宁那么努力的话，我相信我能更快地找到更多（不是很多的意思）好公司的。王宁很努力，绝对是个难得的好CEO，就算没有拉布布，他也会把这家公司做好的。（2026-04-07）",[827,1287,1288],{},"网友：泡泡玛特的商业价值，25年底的时候我就有了一些感悟，感觉到是有其内在逻辑的。当时是逛街看到女儿和夫人喜欢去逛这种店，每到一处总要停留总要多少买一点，里面的人几乎都是女性，小女生很多，就感觉到这个应该是有很强的情绪价值的。但是内心里面还是看不懂有什么壁垒，一个工业品的东西，可以无限复制和无限供应，这点始终琢磨不透。",[827,1290,1291,1292,1294],{},"可能和奢侈品一样，可以通过",[862,1293,141],{"href":879},"或者经典产品在脸面上带来情绪价值吧。",[827,1296,1297],{},"真的深究起来，很多东西都是这样，类如我家姑娘就很喜欢玩密室和剧本杀，她就不喜欢玩游戏，这应该是满足一类人的一类需求的价值。泡泡玛特的价值我的理解是情绪价值领域的经典生意，但是情绪是一个很难稳定的东西，可能起伏会很大，给带来的估值估计起伏也会很大。",[827,1299,1300,1301,1303],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的壁垒目前看上去有几个（排名不分先后，还没想清楚重要性的排序）：已经建立起来的用户关注度（",[862,1302,141],{"href":879},"），艺术家的签约壁垒，全球各地的门店，强大的王宁和他的team（包括生产，物流，品质以及一切及其他）。这些壁垒不能保证潮玩可以一直有人喜欢，但可以让喜欢潮玩的人们一直关注泡泡玛特。",[827,1305,1306],{},"泡泡玛特的壁垒远比想象中强大，只要潮玩会有持续性，泡泡玛特就是非常好的生意了。不过，在持续性上的争议会持续很久的，所以他们可能还需要一直证明下去（他们自己其实不需要证明什么，他们只要继续做他们该做的事情就好）。大家可以先看个五年十年吧。（2026-04-09）",[827,1308,1309],{},"网友：想请教一下，泡泡玛特十年后会是怎么样？",[827,1311,1312],{},"大道：会比现在被更多人认识和喜欢。（2026-04-09）",[827,1314,1315,1316,1319],{},"网友：Labubu大火后关注到了泡泡玛特，也看了您最近的帖子，受益匪浅且十分认同。只有一个问题，公司的",[862,1317,74],{"href":1318},"\u002Fhuchenghe","。王宁本人及团队各方面无可厚非，你认为，如果找另一批优秀团队和设计师去设计另一批娃娃和玩偶，并给予一定的资金，他们能不能复制出另一个泡泡玛特？",[827,1321,1322],{},"大道：哈，“十分认同”然后问这么个问题？（2026-04-09）",[827,1324,1325],{},"网友：我来回答一下泡泡玛特的问题，不是能不能，而是已经有很多人这么做了，砸了很多钱，非常努力，而且没少下功夫，显然差距还非常巨大。花费了泡泡玛特同样的资本金，没有达到泡泡玛特十分之一的市场效果。",[827,1327,1328],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的壁垒已经建起来了，大家要顾虑的其实是持续性的问题。作为做游戏出身的人，我的直觉是这个需求是可以持续的，但很难说清楚。（2026-04-10）",[827,1330,1331],{},"网友：大道，今天的泡泡玛特像不像曾经某一刻的Netflix。",[827,1333,1334],{},"大道：不像，因为这是世界的泡泡玛特。（2026-04-10）",[827,1336,1337,1338,1340,1341,1343],{},"网友：作为34岁的男性，也是泡泡玛特的老用户，我逛街时会逛各类潮玩店、玩具店甚至书店，到处都能看到各式各样的盲盒。但看多了总会有些厌烦——毕竟花了钱，但为什么不能买到我要买的产品呢？奇怪的是，我唯独对泡泡玛特的盲盒没有这种抵触情绪。这让我很好奇，这算不算就是",[862,1339,141],{"href":879},"的“",[862,1342,74],{"href":1318},"”？",[827,1345,1346],{},"我自己也反思过，答案应该是泡泡玛特的产品是最精致，最有“神韵”的，哪怕没抽中最心仪的那一款，但是抽中别的也不会很差。就像是在“最好”和“好”之间抽奖，而不是在“好”和“差”之间碰运气。",[827,1348,1349],{},"大道：我要慢慢体会这点。（2026-04-10）",[827,1351,1352,1353,1356],{},"网友：泡泡玛特就像是卖酒的",[862,1354,166],{"href":1355},"\u002Fpingtai","，而且都是优质品类，只要有人喝酒，就来这儿买。",[827,1358,1359,1360,1362,1363,1365,1366,1368,1369,1371],{},"大道：比卖酒",[862,1361,166],{"href":1355},"可强多了啊。卖酒的",[862,1364,166],{"href":1355},"上面的酒不是",[862,1367,166],{"href":1355},"的产品，只是",[862,1370,166],{"href":1355},"的商品而已。（2026-04-11）",[827,1373,1374],{},"网友：对，它（泡泡玛特）并不是一个完美的企业，只是接近完美而已。",[827,1376,1377],{},"大道：哈，你举个完美的企业的例子？（2026-04-11）",[827,1379,1380],{},"网友：是的，就是可持续性的问题。现在已经开始建造乐园以及动画片了。但是专注于IP的打造，要使其形成如迪士尼的IP以及势能，感觉确实需要一段时间的。阿段关于可持续性是怎么想的呢？想请教一下。",[827,1382,1383],{},"大道：你把我这些年说过的所有东西都看几遍也许能明白。（2026-04-11）",[827,1385,1386],{},"网友：大道说过，如果国际化指的是学到世界上的好东西的意思就没问题，如果是指的拼命到别的国家去做生意的话，对中国绝大多数公司而言还是蛮危险的。",[827,1388,1389],{},"大道：我觉得泡泡玛特已经过了这一关了。（2026-04-12）",[827,1391,1392,1393,1395],{},"网友：大道您好！当年您买",[831,1394,868],{},"的时候分享了很多关于买入时候的估值思路，现在可以分享一下现在泡泡玛特的估算思路吗？谢谢！",[827,1397,1398],{},"大道：不是说了去看《因为独特》么？（2026-04-13）",[827,1400,1401],{},"网友：2025年泡泡玛特营收371.2亿元、同比增长184.7%，经调整净利润130.8亿元、同比增长284.5%，但财报发布当日股价大跌22.51%——这是一家“看不懂”的公司。",[827,1403,1404],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的生意模式没有茅台那么稳定，但未来增长空间可能大一些，是个非常有意思的企业。（2026-07-24）",[827,1406,1407],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的生意模式（没有茅台那么稳定，但）未来增长空间（可能）大（一些，是个非常有意思的企业。） 我的意思是把括号里的那些东西去掉。（2026-07-28）",[827,1409,1410],{},"网友：（问从未来十年的角度，茅台和泡泡玛特怎么比较）",[827,1412,1413,1414,1416],{},"大道：从未来十年的角度看，",[831,1415,833],{},"更稳，泡泡升值空间更大（波动可能也更大，意味着有可能短期亏钱，也可能长期也亏，如果……）（2026-07-10）",[827,1418,1419],{},"网友：段老师，近期看到泡泡玛特和新宝合作做了IP的小家电，您认为这对泡泡玛特是属于加分项么？",[827,1421,1422,1423,1425,1426,1428],{},"大道：我不太关心他们具体做什么，这是王宁要考虑的事情。我在意的是",[862,1424,70],{"href":864},"和",[862,1427,135],{"href":1008},"。（2026-04-16）",[827,1430,1431],{},"网友：请问大道对泡泡玛特涉足小家电领域的第一款产品以及产品的价格如何看，您觉得这是对的吗？",[827,1433,1434,1435,1438,1439,1441],{},"大道：对企业而言，“对的事情”就是满足用户需求。如果泡泡玛特发现了这个需求，推出相应产品就算是",[862,1436,23],{"href":1437},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","。至于这件事情到底是不是用户的需求，不试试是不知道的。如果以后一直好卖的话，就是“",[862,1440,28],{"href":919},"了”。",[827,1443,1444],{},"其实我觉得小家电这个事情还蛮有意思的。泡泡玛特其实蛮有创造力的，我很好奇他们会推哪些产品出来，最后到底有哪类产品能够火起来。泡泡玛特目前的状态是完全有实力去尝试一些新东西的。（2026-04-25）",[827,1446,1447],{},"网友：泡泡玛特的IP主角集中在毛绒公仔，而迪士尼宣传视频的主角在于人，毛绒公仔是配角。这可能就是泡泡玛特与迪士尼的区别。",[827,1449,1450],{},"大道：你确定你知道泡泡玛特是干什么的吗？（2026-06-12）",[827,1452,1453],{},"网友：泡泡玛特世界杯这波官方战略联名血赚。",[827,1455,1456],{},"大道：血赚谈不上吧？就是正常赚而已。（2026-06-13）",[827,1458,1459],{},"网友：泡泡玛特最近在阿那亚开了甜品店，北京朝阳公园有主题乐园，之前的手游因为亏损砍掉了。不断做IP的延伸、不断试错，成本是不是也会比较高，也比较消耗IP？",[827,1461,1462],{},"大道（转AI回答）：Gemini的回答，仅供参考。王宁其实一直面临着市场关于“专注度”和“盲盒退潮”的质疑，他用几个核心逻辑回答过这些问题。",[827,1464,1465],{},"关于“专注”与边界，王宁曾明确表示过：“盲盒在泡泡玛特从来都不是核心，IP才是。”在外部看来，泡泡玛特一会儿做乐园、一会儿做珠宝、一会儿做烘焙，显得很乱，但在他眼里主线只有一个——围绕IP做全产业链的创意和快乐售卖。任何能承载IP、扩大IP二次消费的业态，都是主业的延伸。",[827,1467,1468],{},"关于“没有故事”怎么做乐园，王宁的回答是“Hello Kitty是没有故事的”。有些形象是从故事里走出来的，而有些形象注定不需要故事，它是一种纯粹的审美和精神寄托。北京朝阳公园的乐园只有4万平方米，属于“轻资产、重体验”的尝试。",[827,1470,1471],{},"关于节奏，乐园是先开一期，发现非家庭用户和外地游客占比能到60%、收入超预期之后，才在2026年开始扩建。手游踩了跨行业的坑，付了1.2亿的学费，及时收手了。（2026-07-01）",[827,1473,1474],{},"网友：不懂大道所说的不懂，能举几个不懂的点吗？正如你之前所说：好生意一句话就能说明白。",[827,1476,1477],{},"大道：懂的意思是你大致能知道10年后是什么样子。（2026-04-09）",[827,1479,1480],{},"网友：大道，泡泡玛特10年后的利润能赚到迪士尼现在的利润120亿美金的概率有多大？",[827,1482,1483],{},"大道：51.9%（2026-04-19）",[827,1485,1486,1487,1489],{},"网友：看了一下",[831,1488,833],{},"今年的利润刚好也是120亿美金，真巧！大道的回复让人难以琢磨。",[827,1491,1492,1493,1495],{},"大道：51.9%是随意写的，意思是超过50%的机会，和",[831,1494,833],{},"没关系。（2026-04-21）",[827,1497,1498],{},"大道：没有大不了多少的意思。其实就是想表达大于50%的意思，我总不能说95%吧？话说回来，我觉得10年后95%的概率也可能是一个合理的猜测。（2026-04-21）",[827,1500,1501,1502,1504],{},"网友：想问一下大道，您认为泡泡玛特的",[862,1503,70],{"href":864},"加王宁的带领下，在五年内公司能走到一个什么样的高度？",[827,1506,1507],{},"大道：大概率比现在高，5年也许50%？这个没人知道的，但我直觉一定会比现在更厉害。（2026-04-22）",[827,1509,1510],{},"网友：王宁似乎觉得泡泡的国际化战略已经很成功了，这跟很多人对美国店铺的探店体感有差距？大道是否担心？",[827,1512,1513],{},"大道：没必要比王宁对泡泡玛特理解的更深刻，但比别人更理解王宁和泡泡玛特很可能是很重要的。（2026-05-06）",[827,1515,1516],{},"网友：（有网友用自由现金流折现给泡泡玛特估值，得出市场正在按“企业不再成长且没有Labubu”定价的结论）",[827,1518,1519],{},"大道：本来那是一片森林，你离某棵树太近了？越是迷惘的时刻越是要往远处看的。（2026-05-29）",[827,1521,1522],{},"网友：离奇的是市场正在这样假设。",[827,1524,1525],{},"大道：假装懂市场对你没好处。市场不过是个乌合之众而已，有时候对有时候不对。看看老巴对旅鼠的描述？（2026-05-29）",[827,1527,1528],{},"网友：按10%折现算下来，感觉当前市值已经反映了很多年的增长。",[827,1530,1531],{},"大道：不懂生意的人们就是这么想市场的？如果明天这家公司就下市十年，你会怎么想？（2026-05-25）",[827,1533,1534],{},"网友：请问大道，泡泡玛特您是从哪几个方面判断这家公司能长期持续赚到钱，十年二十年后大家还会像现在一样热衷于它？",[827,1536,1537],{},"大道：你把《因为独特》和王宁的所有采访视频至少看两遍后，也许你能明白。如果还不能明白的话，谁说你都不会明白的。（2026-05-25）",[827,1539,1540],{},"网友：段哥，你觉得20年以后泡泡玛特利润超过迪士尼的概率有多大？",[827,1542,1543],{},"大道：我真的觉得会超过50%。（2026-06-02）",[827,1545,1546,1547,1549],{},"网友：大道，请问如果有机会，您会向",[831,1548,909],{},"先生介绍泡泡玛特吗？",[827,1551,1552],{},"大道：除非他问我，不然大概率不会的。我自己慢慢买不香吗？（2026-06-24）",[827,1554,1555],{},"网友：这是一个蛋糕，不够分的。",[827,1557,1558,1559,1561],{},"大道：目前是个很小的蛋糕，不像",[831,1560,868],{},"。（2026-06-24）",[827,1563,1564,1565,1567,1568,1570],{},"大道：我对泡泡玛特的基本理解：泡泡玛特目前是个2000亿港币市值左右的公司，去年已经赚到130亿人民币的利润，",[862,1566,70],{"href":864},"已经跑通，",[862,1569,135],{"href":1008},"很好，未来10年20年的平均年利润大概率不会低于现在。这里假设了人们确实会持续有这种情绪价值的需求（我觉得我自己就有）。只要这个假设没问题（但这个假设是有可能错的），我的投资逻辑就是成立的。",[827,1572,1573],{},"我不在乎别人怎么看，我也不在乎短期盈利的波动，我只是努力去想10年20年后会怎么样。我的假设完全来自于我自己的经历以及我自己对这个世界的理解，不保证对的。（2026-07-10）",[827,1575,1576],{},"网友：今天看了段哥在北大的演讲，里面说了一个“足够的最小发展速度”，立马想起了泡泡玛特：主动减速，将发展的质量放在发展的速度与规模之前。",[827,1578,1579],{},"大道：是的，安全第一。（2026-07-10）",[827,1581,1582],{},"大道：这里“足够”两个字很重要。（2026-07-11）",[827,1584,1585,1586,1588],{},"网友：您在《共同说》专访中提到",[831,1587,833],{},"“特别像喜诗糖果”。那么您觉得泡泡玛特更接近喜诗糖果还是可口可乐？",[827,1590,1591],{},"大道：你哪只眼睛看到我这么说过？（2026-07-12）",[827,1593,850,1594,1596],{},[831,1595,833],{},"像喜诗糖果，像是大道的观点。",[827,1598,1599,1600,1602],{},"大道：是的，我说的就是觉得",[831,1601,833],{},"像喜诗糖果，没提过泡泡玛特。（2026-07-12）",[827,1604,1605],{},"网友：段总您好，最近我在济南两家泡泡玛特店门口蹲守了几天，详细记录了进店人数和购买数量。按照这边门店的销售情况计算，与2025年国内直营门店销售100亿左右差距很大。我这样计算哪里有问题？",[827,1607,1608],{},"大道：点估计就得出结论说明你逻辑系统有问题。（2026-07-14）",[827,1610,1611],{},"网友：段总的意思是 只要潮玩行业一直存在 并且受大家喜欢 那么泡泡玛特好的概率就很大了",[827,1613,1614],{},"大道：哈，难道不是吗？ 反正我觉得如果我想抢这个生意是不知道如何下手的。（2026-08-03）",[827,1616,1617],{},"网友：人们永远都会需要有情绪价值的产品，但是未必需要的是泡泡玛特",[827,1619,1620],{},"大道：人们确实也不一定喝茅台，也不一定要iPhone，甚至也不一定需要nvda，也可以不用Google！但你需要理解概率是什么意思以及背后的原因啊。（2026-08-03）",[827,1622,1623],{},"网友：会不会有一天很多人就不喜欢labubu了（这里的labubu可以换成任何其他ip）？“长期受到消费者喜爱的ip”真的能运营出来，而不是可遇不可求吗？",[827,1625,1626],{},"大道：你确定你想了吗？你想了多久？商业模式+企业文化这两个过滤器你要想明白了的话，你自己就能明白的。 当然，你如果认为人们突然有一天就不再需要这种能给予人们情绪价值的产品的话，你的担心是有道理的。（2026-08-03）",[827,1628,1629],{},"大道（转AI回答）：Gemini：\n阿里和腾讯都早已深度切入潮玩赛道。 不过与泡泡玛特这类“从IP孵化、产品设计到终端门店”全产业链自营的传统潮玩巨头不同，阿里和腾讯的玩法更加符合互联网大厂的底层逻辑——用各自最擅长的“电商渠道\u002F流量”和“内容IP\u002F文娱生态”来进行升维布局。\n以下是两大巨头在潮玩赛道的具体布局和现状：\n阿里巴巴：从线上电商平台，走向“IP+AI+线下体验店”\n阿里在潮玩领域的探索经历了从“平台服务”到“亲身下场”的转变：",[1631,1632,1633],"ol",{},[1634,1635,1636],"li",{},"业务布局",[1638,1639,1640,1643,1646],"ul",{},[1634,1641,1642],{},"早期的内容IP潮玩（锦鲤拿趣）： 阿里影业旗下的潮玩品牌“锦鲤拿趣”（KOITAKE）通过结合阿里生态内的影视、剧集、综艺IP（如《乡村爱情》《琉璃》等），推出了诸多爆款盲盒与衍生手办。",[1634,1644,1645],{},"线下实体店试水（好运连得）： 阿里通过旗下的虎鲸文娱（原阿里大文娱）在首都北京（Box朝外年轻力中心）及上海低调落地了首家线下潮玩集合店 “好运连得 LUCKY LOOP”。不仅售卖市面热门IP（如TNT等），还同步展示与推广了阿里自有的潮玩IP（如“Nooobit”）。",[1634,1647,1648],{},"技术赋能（AI+捏娃）： 阿里内测了“妙呀AI”等平台，尝试结合生成式AI让用户个性化定制\u002F生成潮玩造型，探索技术与潮玩结合的跨界新模式。",[1631,1650,1651],{"start":21},[1634,1652,1653],{},"现状与定位",[1638,1655,1656],{},[1634,1657,1658,1659,1662,1663,1666],{},"阿里本质上依然发挥着“",[831,1660,1661],{},"全国最大潮玩销售与消费平台","”（淘天生态）的优势，既是泡泡玛特、52TOYS等大牌的关键销售阵地，也在通过自身大文娱的影视IP进行线下消费闭环的尝试。\n腾讯：发挥游戏与网文IP长板，“谷子”与潮玩双轮驱动\n腾讯在潮玩赛道的策略是“",[831,1664,1665],{},"不重度做重资产开店，重点挖掘庞大的IP池","”，将潮玩、衍生品与“谷圈（Anime Peripheral Goods）”深度结合。",[1631,1668,1669],{},[1634,1670,1636],{},[1638,1672,1673,1676,1679],{},[1634,1674,1675],{},"阅文集团（腾讯系文娱主力）： 腾讯旗下的阅文集团是潮玩与衍生品的重度参与者。阅文利用《全职高手》《斗罗大陆》《庆余年》《道诡异仙》等顶级网文\u002F动漫IP，大规模开发盲盒、手办、卡牌和各类衍生“谷子”。通过控股艺画开天（《灵笼》制作方），进一步加强了顶级IP手办与潮玩的控制权。",[1634,1677,1678],{},"腾讯游戏及自家企鹅IP： 依托《王者荣耀》《英雄联盟》《和平精英》等头部游戏，腾讯推出了大量的游戏角色雕像、盲盒及周边；腾讯ISUX团队也在持续将经典的“腾讯企鹅”形象衍生出各种艺术潮玩玩具。",[1634,1680,1681],{},"资本与渠道赋能： 腾讯过去曾投资过多家泛娱乐与潮玩相关链条公司，并充分利用微信小程序生态，为各大潮玩品牌（包括盲盒抽盒机等模式）提供私域流量入口。",[1631,1683,1684],{"start":21},[1634,1685,1653],{},[1638,1687,1688,1695,1698,1701],{},[1634,1689,1690,1691,1694],{},"腾讯并没有开出像泡泡玛特那样遍布全国的自有品牌线下连锁盲盒店，而是选择做“",[831,1692,1693],{},"上游超级IP供给商与衍生品运营者","”。靠着强劲的社交与游戏\u002F动漫内容，在二次元和潮玩消费市场稳稳拿走IP变现的利润。\n行业现状与大厂介入后的变化\n当前整体的潮玩市场展现出以下几大趋势：",[1634,1696,1697],{},"IP形态由单一向综合拓展： 传统潮玩（无背景故事的艺术盲盒IP）与“内容IP\u002F二次元谷子”的界限正在变模糊。腾讯和阿里凭手里的影视、网文、游戏IP，在“有背景故事的潮玩\u002F手办”领域占有极大优势。",[1634,1699,1700],{},"出海成为新增量： 包括泡泡玛特、52TOYS以及腾讯系阅文的潮玩衍生品，都在加速布局海外市场，潮玩已经成长为重要的中国文化出海载体之一。",[1634,1702,1703],{},"分工愈发明确： 泡泡玛特、名创优品旗下的TOP TOY等玩家深耕线下零售体验与潮流艺术IP挖掘；而阿里、腾讯等大厂则更多以IP授权、平台流量、线下旗舰试点以及AI技术注入的方式参与这场狂欢（2026-08-11）",[827,1705,1706],{},"网友：世界上没有哪个公司的商业模式和企业文化是不能复制的吧？但市场不会在原地等你——你就算做出一样精美的IP、一样的企业文化，甚至挖几个高管过来，年轻人就会去你店里吗？",[827,1708,1709],{},"大道：那你觉得花多少钱可以复制茅台，苹果？要能复制早就有人复制了啊！moat越宽，复制越难，这就是商业模式的意义。 你再看看有多少企业想加入潮玩，复制泡泡玛特的？即便强如阿里，腾讯，都找不到北啊。（2026-08-11）",[827,1711,1712],{},"大道：突然想到，复制茅台其实也是有办法的。目前复制茅台的代价是1.68万亿人民币，复制苹果是4.45万亿美金，复制泡泡玛特是2033亿港币。（2026-08-12）",[827,1714,1715],{},"网友：大道，10年周期，大概率泡泡玛特跑赢茅台。",[827,1717,1718],{},"大道：大概率泡泡的盈利成长会高一些，但茅台的盈利能力也会变得比以前更强一些的。（2026-08-14）",[827,1720,1721],{},"网友：22年泡泡盈利因为疫情影响下滑了很多，泡泡的风险在于线下渠道主导，不管是门店，还是乐园，假如遇到不可抗力的疫情，泡泡将面临巨大风险。泡泡玛特，想问问大道像线下这种，有什么方法可以更健壮，抗风险能力更强",[827,1723,1724],{},"大道：现在网上买实际上非常方便。疫情来了谁也躲不过，但最后真的躲不过的的也不多啊。（2026-08-14）",[827,1726,1727],{},"网友：段老师，您是怎么理解泡泡玛特未来现金流会越来越多的？我理解泡泡玛特是给不同的人提供一种稀缺的个性化情绪出口，但这种情绪消费是一阵一阵的、替代性很强，不像刚需产品那么好预测，作为投资我不太明白它未来十年二十年是否一直能给不同的人带来快乐。",[827,1729,1730],{},"大道：我就是根据我自己游戏从业的经验，感觉潮玩这类有情绪价值的产品是可以很长久的。泡泡玛特的企业文化和运营能力会在这个行业里非常突出，所以他们会一直很厉害且会越来越厉害的。如果不认同第一点，第二点成为投资的理由是不够的。（2026-08-16）",[827,1732,1733],{},"网友：答对有红包吗？哈哈。砸钱买暴雪，王者荣耀，元神，之类的游戏公司玩偶版权，照搬泡泡的运营模式，先稳定平台的流量和热度，然后收集潜力ip，撑过10年，培养出几个爆款ip，差不多能和泡泡打擂台了。不过王宁的观念有优势，很难再有一个类似王宁眼光和运营思路的老板了。",[827,1735,1736],{},"大道：砸钱？为什么？生意的前提是要赚钱的，不是为了打败谁。砸钱的例子不是没有，你看看golf就知道。那个砸钱的人可是真有钱啊，也真砸了。（2026-08-19）",[827,1738,1739],{},"网友：就像酷迪打瑞幸，麦当劳打肯德基那样，狗皮膏药一样贴在PPMT的店旁边开店，你开在哪我也开在哪",[827,1741,1742],{},"大道：你去看看泡泡玛特店旁边那些潮玩店，你就知道你有多不了解这个行业了吧。（2026-08-19）",[827,1744,1745],{},"大道：我是在很认真地问大家，如果一个有足够资金的公司，想抢泡泡玛特的生意，他能够做什么？（2026-08-19）",[827,1747,1748],{},"网友：大道说泡泡玛特的商业模式不是线性增长的，是什么原因呢？我能想到的是：IP之间的接续不一定平稳、品类拓展会产生周期、潮玩本身也有情绪周期（2025年LABUBU卖爆形成高基数）。以上理解对吗？",[827,1750,1751],{},"大道：其实每个公司都不是线性增长的，泡泡玛特规模还不够大，所以比较容易看出来而已。nvda也不是线性增长的啊，苹果也不是的。绝大部分公司都很难有10年以上线性增长的经历。我在小霸王的时候，我们每年100%+增长，但到第7年也断了。（2026-08-20）",[827,1753,1754],{},"网友：短短两句话醍醐灌顶。大道这样理解可以吗？泡泡玛特是个很长久的生意，王宁团队会做的很好。",[827,1756,1757],{},"大道：潮玩是个很长久的生意，泡泡玛特会做的很好。（2026-08-16）",[827,1759,1760],{},"网友：就是名创优品，到处疯狂开店。",[827,1762,1763],{},"大道：你对比一下这两家公司的单店营业额和总营业额，利润各项指标看看？有空你也可以看看两家公司门店的区别？（2026-08-20）",[827,1765,1766],{},"网友：安踏的产品有很强的实用功能。 这个实用功能有两面性，一方面是需示更加稳定，另一方面是供应链要复杂得多。",[827,1768,1769],{},"大道：供应链是否复杂和产品是不是有很强的实用功能是没有关系的吧？（2026-08-27）",[827,1771,1772],{},"网友：我个人感觉泡泡玛特供应链的难点在于第一，精准的排产与补货，如何不频繁断货又不导致存货周期过长。第二就是研发一个新系列，留给供应链的时间不够，把产品生产出来，运到美国，报关清关，在运输到各个城市上架，这一套下来国内这边都卖了好几轮了。安踏的供应链难度在于供应商管理，他没有那么大的下游供应链压力，他的很多材料和配件应该都是供应商提供的",[827,1774,1775],{},"大道：我知道泡泡的供应链其实也蛮复杂的，但不了解安踏。（2026-08-27）",[827,1777,1778],{},"网友：段哥，现在买泡泡玛特，10年后涨10倍的概率大吗？",[827,1780,1781],{},"大道：你要想生意而不是股价有没有可能。股价是别人的事情，生意才是自己的。泡泡生意后面十年再涨10倍，那大概就是一年要赚150-180亿美金？看上去也不是没可能，有机会但不容易。（2026-08-28）",[827,1783,1784],{},"网友：泡泡玛特  段哥，您好，想请教个问题：商业模式上，像茅台这种因它好喝，品控严格且长期供不应求的特点，从它的产量容易毛估未来的5年，10年现金流大概率会比过去要多。对于泡泡玛特，虽然王宁是我极其喜欢的创始人，也喜欢它的企业文化和产品，请问您从10年的角度看，判断未来现金流的关键点是什么呢？谢谢！",[827,1786,1787],{},"大道：关键在于未来用户还会不会继续买，为什么？ 哪怕是茅台，也有一个年轻人不喝茅台的问题。年轻人不喝茅台的问题已经存在好几十年了，一直都没解决，那你怎么敢买了茅台呢？（2026-09-23）",[822,1789,1791],{"id":1790},"第四节-王宁与企业文化","第四节 王宁与企业文化",[827,1793,1794,1795,1797,1798,1266,1800,1802],{},"网友：李翔问王宁关于领导力的问题，王宁说：领导力就是",[862,1796,23],{"href":1437},"，其他的比如同理心、能鼓舞士气、分工明确等都是方法。这和大道说的“",[862,1799,23],{"href":1437},[862,1801,28],{"href":919},"”是一模一样的啊。",[827,1804,1805],{},"不知道王宁是否受到了大道的影响，还是自己琢磨出来的，也许真正牛的人思路都是类似的？",[827,1807,1808],{},"大道：王宁这个说法我很喜欢！我觉得他也是自己琢磨出来的。（2025-12-15）",[827,1810,1811],{},"大道：如果我是泡泡玛特管理层，我大概率会做：",[827,1813,1814,1815,1817,1818,1820],{},"1.永远不给预测，因为没有任何意义但早晚会有代价。",[831,1816,909],{},"的BRK就不给预测的（甚至没有每个季度conference call），",[831,1819,596],{},"也不给业绩指引（有我的影响），拼多多好像也不给下个季度或年度的业绩指引的，但不知道有没有我的影响在里面。",[827,1822,1823],{},"2.目前还没想到。（2026-03-31）",[827,1825,1826],{},"网友：大道，要不要深入了解下泡泡玛特内部会做假账吗？",[827,1828,1829],{},"大道：我不认为他们会做假账。你看看王宁的讲话你大概就能明白的。（2026-04-03）",[827,1831,1832],{},"网友专栏（泡泡玛特价值几何）",[827,1834,892,1835],{},[862,1836,1837],{"href":1837,"rel":1838},"https:\u002F\u002Fxueqiu.com\u002F1233302473\u002F382911125?scene=1036&share_uid=9908639148",[897],[827,1840,1841],{},"大道：王宁“要做世界的泡泡玛特”这一说法，出现在他在接受新华社、《人民日报》等媒体采访时，对公司长期目标的最新表述中，大致是从“做中国的迪士尼”升级为“做世界的泡泡玛特”。比较权威、成体系的一版原话出自2025年夏天新华社\u002F《人民日报》联合的访谈口径，核心表述是（问答体里多次出现，措辞高度一致）：",[827,1843,1844],{},"•“2020年的时候，我说5年以后如果中国有一家企业最像迪士尼，那一定是泡泡玛特。去年开始，我们希望不是成为中国的迪士尼，而是成为世界的泡泡玛特。”",[827,1846,1847,1848,1850],{},"• 同一段里他接着解释这一目标的含义：“之前的目标是成为中国的迪士尼，现在想成为世界的泡泡玛特，成为新一代世界级的中国消费",[862,1849,141],{"href":879},"。”",[827,1852,1853],{},"时间点上，可以这样理解：",[827,1855,1856],{},"• 他回顾说“2020年的时候”曾提出“如果中国有一家企业最像迪士尼，那一定是泡泡玛特”的说法，这是第一阶段的目标。",[827,1858,1859],{},"•“去年开始，我们希望不是成为中国的迪士尼，而是成为世界的泡泡玛特”，说明“世界的泡泡玛特”这一提法是他在2024年前后于内部和公开场合开始使用、并在2025年多家主流媒体专访中形成统一对外表述的版本。",[827,1861,1862,1863,1865],{},"如果你是要在材料或PPT里引用，一般可以用精简版引用为：“之前的目标是成为中国的迪士尼，现在想成为世界的泡泡玛特，成为新一代世界级的中国消费",[862,1864,141],{"href":879},"。”（2026-04-09）",[827,1867,1868],{},"网友：推荐大道看下泡泡玛特创业十周年的纪录片，当时看的真的热泪盈眶，相信每一个创业或者白手起家的创业者看到这个视频都会很感动。",[827,1870,1871],{},"“一个属于泡泡玛特的成长故事，从2010到2020，我们不忘初心，始终仰望星辰。”",[827,1873,1874,1875],{},"链接：",[862,1876,1877],{"href":1877,"rel":1878},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.douyin.com\u002Fvideo\u002F6906421909039156495",[897],[827,1880,1881],{},"大道：10年15年的都看过了，很好！（2026-04-10）",[827,1883,1884],{},"网友：大道看到王宁和泡泡玛特后，是不是想起了当年自己和小伙伴们奋斗的岁月。",[827,1886,1887],{},"大道：是的，而且很感动也很理解。（2026-04-10）",[827,1889,1890,1891,1893],{},"网友：《因为独特》第216页原文：我也很认同",[831,1892,843],{},"说过的一句话，库克说过，当我们付出努力，为了让盲人也可以使用我们的设备时，我是不会考虑该死的 ROI（投资回报率）的。做企业也是一样，有些事情是对的，就应该坚持去做，不能什么都用短期ROI来衡量。",[827,1895,1896],{},"大道：我说过很多话，被王宁认同几句也是有可能的。话说回来，我也认同王宁说过的很多话，所以我也是他的粉丝哈。（2026-04-12）",[827,1898,1899],{},"网友：老段，您爱上王宁了。",[827,1901,1902,1903,1905],{},"大道：不奇怪，我现在确实是王宁的粉丝。我也是老虎的粉丝哈，我其实也粉Tony，沈炜，黄峥，Pony，库里，库克，",[831,1904,909],{},"，Collin……（2026-04-12）",[827,1907,1908],{},"网友：《因为独特》这本书挺好看，很实在，里面有段关于团队很有见地的论述，还提到了步步高。",[827,1910,1911],{},"大道：是的，他对商业的理解是顶级的，比我好，大概因为他花的时间比我多。不过，我能理解他说的东西。（2026-04-05）",[827,1913,1914],{},"网友：继《因为独特》后，李翔再次深度访谈王宁，暴露了问题，解释了误解，谈到了未来，整个访谈展现了真诚。",[827,1916,1917],{},"大道：没觉得有啥新东西，不改变我的看法。（2026-05-06）",[827,1919,1920,1921,1923],{},"网友：大道对于夫妻店绝对控股怎么看？这是个让人担心的点，它不像",[831,1922,868],{},"那样董事会主导战略和强力监督。",[827,1925,1926],{},"大道：你得有多大毛病才会去投资一家让你焦虑的公司啊？（2026-05-07）",[827,1928,1929],{},"网友：您有丰富的实业经验，也有多次成功的投资经验，尤其是有成功投资游戏的经验可以迁移过来，理解泡泡挺容易的。",[827,1931,1932],{},"大道：我理解王宁不是因为我的投资，而是因为我曾经是个“企业家”，我能看懂他有多厉害。他还那么年轻，他还能至少好好干25年以上吧。这个复利是吓人的。（2026-05-07）",[827,1934,1935],{},"网友：请教一下，您说能看懂王宁多厉害。有时间的话可以帮忙大致说说，看企业家的能力该怎么看？",[827,1937,1938],{},"大道：你先做20年企业再说？（2026-05-07）",[827,1940,1941],{},"网友：泡泡玛特以后不会再有业绩指引，该怎样就怎样咯。",[827,1943,1944],{},"大道：比如20年后回头看，每个季度或者每年的业绩指引都是要花不少时间的，但对业绩成长却没有一丝一毫的作用。业绩指引的副作用是：万一（早晚会发生的）有一次出现达不到导致的股价大跌，还会引来官司。（2026-05-13）",[827,1946,1947],{},"网友：王宁说“我们更想做的是做iOS生态，而不是安卓”，这个地方理解起来有点难度，大道方便谈谈王宁以iOS生态做比喻的理解吗？",[827,1949,1950],{},"大道：这是明摆着的嘛，你哪里看不懂了？你要是个也做IP的公司，你大概率秒懂的。（2026-05-14）",[827,1952,1953,1954,1957],{},"网友：大道怎么看王宁，他是像乔布斯一样，既是报时人又是",[862,1955,181],{"href":1956},"\u002Fzaozhongren","吗？",[827,1959,1960],{},"大道：我觉得王宁对自己产品的理解以及追求和Jobs是一个级别的，至少未来会是的。王宁对商业的理解好像比Jobs还要强一点点。（2026-05-26）",[827,1962,1963,1964,1966,1967,1969,1970,1972,1973,1975],{},"大道：很多人对这句话可能是有误解的，因为乔布斯是神啊！其实乔布斯对生意的理解是没那么顶级的，不然不会一直拿着那么多现金而不回购，哪怕是在",[831,1965,909],{},"建议他后。不过，乔布斯对产品的追求是绝对顶级的，他建立的这种",[862,1968,135],{"href":1008},"也确实成就了现在的",[831,1971,868],{},"。不过，绝大多数人可能忽略了乔布斯对",[831,1974,868],{},"最大的贡献是什么，那就是选了库克做他的继任CEO！（2026-05-27）",[827,1977,1978],{},"网友：大道您好！泡泡玛特王宁这么年轻，资历尚浅，您不怕他犯大的错误吗？",[827,1980,1981],{},"大道：你怕一辈子了吧？感觉如何？王宁这种人才难得一见，你怕什么？（2026-06-02）",[827,1983,1984],{},"网友：大学毕业的王宁对团队说过“要么我们一起上电视，要么你们看我上电视”这样的话。",[827,1986,1987],{},"大道：这句话有点牛！我在研究生毕业的时候也说过类似的话：那时（1988）还不知道怎么留联络方法，我当时说以后找我很容易的，下火车一问就知道了（当时的想象力还局限在火车阶段）。（2026-07-01）",[827,1989,1990,1991,1993],{},"网友：段哥，您认为王宁身上具备",[862,1992,181],{"href":1956},"的潜质吗？",[827,1995,1996],{},"大道：他就是啊！（2026-07-11）",[827,1998,1999,2000,2002],{},"网友：（新闻：2026年7月14日，泡泡玛特创始人王宁率核心高管团队探访",[831,2001,868],{},"总部Apple Park，与现任CEO库克、即将上任的新任CEO John Ternus等会面）",[827,2004,2005,2006,2008],{},"大道：哈，真巧，我今天去",[831,2007,868],{},"见了John。刚好错过了。（2026-07-16）",[827,2010,2011],{},"网友：看来John不知段先生买了泡泡玛特股票，不知道段先生与王先生惺惺相惜。",[827,2013,2014],{},"大道：John确实不知道，我也不知道昨天发生的事情，不然就多了一个话题哈。（2026-07-16）",[827,2016,2017],{},"大道：John是个非常有亲和力的人，我跟他聊了一个小时，很开心。我觉得他会是个合格合适的CEO的。（2026-07-16）",[827,2019,2020],{},"大道：另外，你说的这四点其实归纳为 商业模式和企业文化会更好理解一些。（2026-07-26）",[827,2022,2023],{},"网友：王宁：“大家要尊重时间，尊重经营。我最近关注的事情一定比你想象的要小：购物袋、物流箱，我会亲自盯它们的设计。万箭齐发是在比蠢，真想干掉对方可能一箭就OK了，为什么要射一万发箭？购物袋这些里子的东西，才应该多放资源。”",[827,2025,2026],{},"大道：这个说的是“焦点法则”， 那Gemini那个解释就是乱讲的了。（2026-08-10）",[827,2028,2029],{},"网友：大道，您接触完王宁后对他本人有没有什么印象，可以分享下吗？我很好奇他怎么做到这么有魅力，让身边的人从大学创业开始就一直愿意追随他。",[827,2031,2032],{},"大道：哈，他很腼腆，也很帅，很多美女找他合影，我需要赶紧跑远一点。（2026-08-20）",[827,2034,2035],{},"网友：王宁自己说的，领导力来自于做正确的事。王宁带着泡泡玛特做得这么好，已经证明了他的领导力了。",[827,2037,2038],{},"大道：王宁对领导力的这句描述是非常王宁的，比我强。（2026-08-20）",[827,2040,2041],{},"（谈 Molly 艺术家 Kenny 与王宁的合作）",[827,2043,2044],{},"大道：Kenny是个很有艺术气质的艺术家，他跟我讲了当年差一点就拒绝了王宁的故事。还好最后冥冥中还是接受了。这个结果成就了Kenny，其实也对泡泡玛特有很大的促进。（2026-09-28）",[827,2046,2047],{},"网友：阿段，你好，请教一个问题，你决定投资泡泡玛特时，是否有考虑到王宁2026年3月25日在2025年度电话会议里原话：“今年我们希望努力做到不低于20%的成长速度”（指2026年营收增长）\n想知道对于管理层这种类型的发言，在你的决策体系里是占多大比重？",[827,2049,2050],{},"大道：人都有犯错的时候，属于减分项目。（2026-09-30）",[822,2052,2054],{"id":2053},"第五节-门店乐园与用户体验","第五节 门店、乐园与用户体验",[827,2056,2057],{},"网友：买了泡泡玛特的股票之后，没过几天就对他家的小玩偶很上头了，大道有这种感觉吗？",[827,2059,2060],{},"大道：我还没有上头，胡乱买了几个还没开呢。（2026-04-11）",[827,2062,2063],{},"大道：泡泡玛特大阪旗舰店",[827,2065,2066],{},"网友：从阿那亚甜品店这么受欢迎的情况来看，甜品车状况也很不错，感觉从他生态的这一环来看，甜品这一块的量很快就是一个好利来，段哥您觉得呢",[827,2068,2069],{},"大道：甜品车应该是乐园的衍生品，就是在经营乐园的过程中产生的想法？（2026-07-26）",[827,2071,2072],{},"大道：我觉得甜品店不会是个大生意，但对建立泡泡玛特的生态圈有帮助。（2026-07-27）",[827,2074,2075],{},"网友：王宁在23\u002F24年的时候给乐园打分是3-4分， 期望的是2年后能做到7分。 不知道在他心里有没有实现。",[827,2077,2078],{},"大道：开始时是1.0版本，现在是1.5版本。既然是 1.5，那两三年后也许还会有2.0版本。虽说是慢工出细活，这个迭代速度也是非常好了。（2026-08-11）",[827,2080,2081],{},"网友：近两个月很明显感觉一个变化，就是Labubu的产品可以买到了，这在半年前是基本不可能的。",[827,2083,2084],{},"大道：那你是希望能买到呢还是希望买不到呢。对可以大规模生产的产品而言，天下没有一家公司会让自己的产品长期极度缺货的。（2026-04-26）",[827,2086,2087],{},"网友：看头像，段总的女儿没少开泡泡玛特的盲盒，孩子喜欢，有点意思了。",[827,2089,2090],{},"大道：是的，女儿非常开心！建议有女儿的爸爸们可以带女儿周末去泡泡玛特多少买几个，很难得的bonding机会。（2026-04-29）",[827,2092,2093],{},"网友：带孩子买泡泡玛特确实是很好的bonding机会，但买多了之后的放不下、停不下来也是实实在在的烦恼。您会给孩子设定一个消费的边界吗？",[827,2095,2096],{},"大道：哈，我拿个袋子，告诉女儿说as many as you want，只要这个袋子能装下。小朋友其实蛮节制的，差不多就好了。我以前从来没找到过这么好的bonding机会，不能错过哈。（2026-04-29）",[827,2098,2099],{},"大道：他们的东西好精致，我都喜欢，真的很可爱！不过我目前还不会上头哈。（2026-04-29）",[827,2101,2102],{},"大道：有女儿的父母可以试试给女儿买几个拉布布或其他泡泡玛特的产品，看看小孩什么反应？我女儿每次都开心的不行，又搂又抱又亲的，还会尖叫一下，从来没试过。我现在都是买一堆先放在我自己房间里，每个礼拜拿一件出来给女儿。（2026-05-31）",[827,2104,2105],{},"网友：我对王宁采访中提起过的门店Celebrate氛围感有点好奇，您在泡泡玛特实体店里面会有这种感受吗？",[827,2107,2108,2109,2111],{},"大道：就像我不是",[831,2110,833],{},"的用户一样，我也还不是泡泡玛特的用户，但我确实能看到别人的快乐。他们在国外的实体店似乎都不大，设计的都很紧凑，可能跟成本有关系吧（好地方估计也很难找到大面积，而且很贵吧？）。不过店里的氛围看着似乎都还蛮快乐的。（2026-06-12）",[827,2113,2114,2115,2117],{},"大道：拿店能力也是",[862,2116,74],{"href":1318},"的，但好店面还是需要等的。未来五年应该会有更多的好店面的。（2026-06-12）",[827,2119,2120],{},"网友：很好奇段先生会入坑吗？能让段先生入坑的IP会是什么？",[827,2122,2123],{},"大道：我不是很确定入坑是什么意思。到目前为止我已经巡过不少店了，香港，大阪，东京，洛杉矶3家店，San José……下一站去纽约（看决赛）！我主要是想看看各地顾客的感觉，泡泡玛特店确实能看到几乎绝大多数消费者脸上都是洋溢着快乐的。（2026-06-23）",[827,2125,2126],{},"网友：据我的观察，入坑就是买了还买，根本停不下来！抽不到自己喜欢的，继续抽；抽到自己喜欢的还想抽别的！",[827,2128,2129],{},"大道：哈，这个解释我能理解。我目前确实看到泡泡玛特的用户的这种情况了。（2026-06-24）",[827,2131,2132],{},"网友：作为高尔夫爱好者兼泡泡股东，总觉得泡泡的IP不出一款高尔夫球杆套实在太可惜了。",[827,2134,2135],{},"大道：这个太小众了。另外，我的球杆是不带球杆套的，不然每次用都要花时间拿下来还带上去。我的球包上是有拉布布挂件的，喜欢的人可以挂几个挂件哈。（2026-06-28）",[827,2137,2138],{},"网友：最近刚去了秦皇岛阿那亚的泡泡玛特和POP BAKERY，感受是泡泡玛特的确有拓展品类的能力。而且泡泡玛特的试错都是在可控范围内的，尝试成本基本限定在1-2亿元，对比其可以动用的财务资源不会伤筋动骨，但一旦做成了有可能会创造十几亿甚至几十亿的营收。",[827,2140,2141,2142,2146],{},"大道：我其实觉得泡泡玛特的甜品是有机会的。泡泡玛特有很多喜欢泡泡玛特产品的粉丝，他们会愿意花多一点点钱去买泡泡玛特的甜品感受（尝试）一下。这也意味着泡泡玛特的甜品可以卖高一点的价钱，而且量也会比一般甜品的要大很多。所以他们更有机会做出更好吃的甜品，然后会让更多人从中得到快乐。我觉得王宁是个有",[862,2143,2145],{"href":2144},"\u002Flirunzhishangdezhuiqiu","利益之上追求","的人，他确实是在做他喜欢的事情。（2026-07-01）",[827,2148,2149],{},"网友：乐园确实感觉没有内容赋值",[827,2151,2152],{},"大道：你想要什么内容？大概因为你不是粉丝吧？我知道的去过乐园的粉丝们好像都很开心啊。（2026-08-06）",[827,2154,2155],{},"网友：不说都年轻人吗？图上怎么这么油腻",[827,2157,2158],{},"大道：我觉得，这个“年轻”主要指的是心理上年轻的人群。我已经见到很多50-60岁的铁粉人群了，有点意思的。（2026-08-11）",[827,2160,2161],{},"网友：六个一起买叫端盒差不多端五到六个盒，会稳定出隐藏款",[827,2163,2164],{},"大道：没那么高概率的。",[827,2166,2167],{},"大道（转AI回答）：Gemini\n如果单次尝试的成功率是独立且恒定的（即隐藏款出现的概率是 1\u002F144），那么尝试 36 次的结果大致如下：",[1638,2169,2170,2173],{},[1634,2171,2172],{},"独立重复事件（如抽卡、概率触发）：36 次里至少出 1 个的概率约为 22.24%。",[1634,2174,2175],{},"固定池不放回抽取（如一共 144 个签，里面有 1 个中奖签，抽 36 个）：概率是线性的，36\u002F144 = 25%。（2026-08-24）",[827,2177,2178],{},"网友：段总是买的全套吧，没有重复的",[827,2180,2181],{},"大道：哈，我网上买，有时候会买重，因为没注意之前已经买了。这个东西买重了没啥关系的，送人就好。经常有人送我，我也刚好可以回礼哈。（2026-08-24）",[827,2183,2184],{},"网友：不是老了，是因为你是男人。现在三四十岁买泡泡玛特玩偶的女人有很多人。",[827,2186,2187],{},"大道：我在纽约看Labubu十年展的时候就看到一个大概40多岁的男生（白人）找王宁合影的。他是个企业家，也住在硅谷。他说他买了好多好多拉布布，去过世界上很多泡泡玛特店。现场男粉丝还不少呢，当然女生更多。（2026-07-24）",[827,2189,2190],{},"网友：空手离开的概率不低，看到没啥想买的就走了。但是，路过进去逛逛的概率非常非常高。这两相乘，对于商场人流的take rate其实比其他店铺要高太多太多",[827,2192,2193],{},"大道（转AI回答）：去逛泡泡玛特（POP MART）实体门店的顾客中，空手离开（即只逛不买）的比例大约在 60% 至 70% 之间，也就是说，门店的实际进店购买转化率约为 30% ~ 40%。\n虽然泡泡玛特官方在财报中通常只披露整体会员复购率（如核心注册会员复购率达 50% 以上）和单店销售额，但综合线下零售行业普遍规律以及相关市场调研，可以从以下几方面理解这一数据：",[1631,2195,2196],{},[1634,2197,2198],{},"进店转化率与空手离开率的拆解",[2200,2201,2202,2218],"table",{},[2203,2204,2205],"thead",{},[2206,2207,2208,2212,2215],"tr",{},[2209,2210,2211],"th",{},"指标",[2209,2213,2214],{},"估算数据\u002F比例",[2209,2216,2217],{},"驱动因素与客群特征",[2219,2220,2221,2233],"tbody",{},[2206,2222,2223,2227,2230],{},[2224,2225,2226],"td",{},"空手离开比例",[2224,2228,2229],{},"60% - 70%",[2224,2231,2232],{},"打卡观赏型：将门店当作体验馆\u002F展厅，逛店拍照但未找到心仪IP；观望试探型：受社交媒体（如热门IP爆款）吸引进店，但因抽盒确定性低或价格考虑未下订单。",[2206,2234,2235,2238,2241],{},[2224,2236,2237],{},"进店购买比例",[2224,2239,2240],{},"30% - 40%",[2224,2242,2243],{},"目的明确型：盲盒重度玩家、冲着特定系列抽盒\u002F补齐全套；即时冲动型：被新上架盲盒、手办或衍生品吸引，产生即兴消费。",[1631,2245,2246],{"start":21},[1634,2247,2248],{},"为什么空手离开的比例依然不算高？\n在传统线下潮玩或百货零售中，20%~30% 的转化率就已经属于优秀水平。泡泡玛特能够维持高达 30%~40% 的成交转化率（即空手率低于一般休闲零售店），主要依靠以下几个商业逻辑：",[1638,2250,2251,2254,2257],{},[1634,2252,2253],{},"体验式与低单价门槛：常规盲盒单价通常在 59~79 元，消费门槛较低，容易促成即时决策与“顺手一买”。",[1634,2255,2256],{},"“抽盒”的心理博弈与互动感：摇盒、摸盒等线下物理交互体验增加了购买趣味性，许多原本只打算逛逛的顾客在体验互动后会产生尝试心理。",[1634,2258,2259],{},"高粘性粉丝与高复购率：泡泡玛特拥有庞大的核心忠实粉群体，许多顾客进店本身就带有明确的购买或“补盒”目标。（2026-08-10）",[827,2261,2262],{},"网友：这是开在成都太古里的西南首家旗舰店，好像是最近才开的，周日下午一点左右去的，人还是很多，因为面积很大，逛起来很舒服。",[827,2264,2265],{},"大道：我感觉人们逛泡泡玛特店和逛苹果店时的目的性似乎差别还蛮大的。去苹果店的人们我猜多数是有明确目的的，而逛泡泡玛特店的人们主要是去逛，看到啥合适的就买点，随机购买的概率要高很多，而且空手离开的概率不高。（2026-08-10）",[827,2267,2268],{},"网友：情绪价值满满呀，送给老婆的礼物，老婆高兴了一下午，泡泡玛特的东西确实很便宜泡泡玛特",[827,2270,2271],{},"大道（转AI回答）：图片中的这款水杯是泡泡玛特（POP MART）推出的 星星人随心配系列-随行杯盲盒（图中出盒款式为“香芋奶昔”\u002FTaro Milkshake，包装盒上展示的为“小熊蜜蜂”\u002FBear Honey）。\n国内门店官方原价：￥149 \u002F 盒（盲盒形式，单盒随机装一款，容量 710ml）。\n整盒（端盒 6 盒）：￥894。",[827,2273,2274],{},"大道：不便宜了？不过跟你买到的东西比确实划算的。（2026-08-10）",[827,2276,2277],{},"大道：到现在为止还没拆到过隐藏款，但和女儿一起拆盲盒也是一种乐趣哈。巡店归来先跟女儿一起拆了两大盒，另外一盒是cry baby。（2026-08-23）",[827,2279,2280],{},"网友：大道您好！建议泡泡玛特考虑广大青年科研工作者这个人群的需求，他们购买力强、也很需要情绪价值。比如可以围绕 Nature、Science、Cell 这些日常讨论频次极高的顶级期刊做一个系列。",[827,2282,2283],{},"大道：哈，这个脑洞比较大，希望艺术家们能看到并有啥神奇的idea。（2026-08-24）",[827,2285,2286],{},"网友：molly mega可以出些中国古风系列设计吗，类似汉风唐风的，中国古典花纹也好看，出一批这种mega估计外国佬也喜欢",[827,2288,2289],{},"大道：我这次在新加坡还见到了Molly的艺术家Kenny，知道了Molly的来龙去脉。Kenny是个蛮有意思的艺术家，现在依然很投入在Molly上。相信Molly未来还会有不少很好的作品的。（2026-08-24）",[827,2291,2292],{},"网友：治愈系DIMOO",[827,2294,2295],{},"大道：Dimoo很可爱，确实治愈。我去新加坡看了潮玩展，对潮玩的理解多了一些。潮玩很多，但能打动人的到底是哪点事先其实很难知道。潮玩这个行业蛮有意思的！（2026-08-24）",[827,2297,2298],{},"网友：原先以为“端盒”（整套购买）就不包含隐藏款的，后来上网查了才知道隐藏款会替代某个常规款出现，所以端盒如果端到了隐藏款，还要另外把那个缺了的常规款补齐才是完全凑齐了一套 我拆到过一次隐藏款，是帮我妈妈拆一个亲戚送给她的Dimoo挂件盲盒",[827,2300,2301],{},"大道：一个大箱，144个盲盒里有一个隐藏款，完全随机的。我看我女儿其实也不是很在乎，也没说一定要隐藏款，但每次拆盲盒或者我拿一个大的Labubu或者Dimoo或者Molly她都是很开心的。（2026-08-24）",[827,2303,2304],{},"网友：在多伦多买个泡泡玛特要开车一个多小时才能买到，怎么就海外天花板到了？",[827,2306,2307],{},"大道：门店布局需要很长时间的。泡泡玛特对门店的位置要求很高，这种好位置往往很抢手，很多地方需要等很长的时间。我觉得他们的门店在未来5-10年还会多不少。（2026-05-30）",[827,2309,2310],{},"网友：我觉得除了批评也需要表扬，同事也需要正反馈。正反馈才能引导至正确的事。",[827,2312,2313],{},"大道：这里不那么需要表扬的？他们已经做得非常好了，我们只是想让他们做得更好而已。（2026-08-23）",[827,2315,2316],{},"网友：店多了货多好考验补货系统，他们有借助ai吗",[827,2318,2319],{},"大道：我估计还的有个两三年才能比较完善一些。海外可能更难，因为运输是个大问题。（2026-08-19）",[827,2321,2322],{},"网友：大道，我不太理解的是，泡泡线下店铺的新品总是缺货，超过4-5次了吧，不同的店铺，兴致勃勃去买，但都没有现货，消耗了热情，时间一久，即使到货，也不想买了。我很奇怪他们生产这么困难吗？至少得把客户购买新款这波热情❤️接住啊。",[827,2324,2325],{},"大道：可能去年上的太快，存货多了，今年矫枉过正了？ 会慢慢调整好的。水多了加面，面多了加水，但需要时间。（2026-08-19）",[827,2327,2328],{},"网友：泡泡玛特北京乐园最近人气大幅上升，而且是在提价的基础上，去过的都说好玩、挺值。这种地点亲民、有强品牌和人气IP支撑的小中型乐园，如果在全国铺开，增长空间感觉无可限量，段哥您觉得如何呢",[827,2330,2331],{},"大道：成景点了！其实也可能是最大的泡泡玛特门店？不过这种门店可不敢开太多的。",[827,2333,2334],{},"大道（转AI回答）：Gemini：关于泡泡玛特第二座城市乐园的规划，根据泡泡玛特官方在2026年股东大会及业绩会上的最新表态，相关选址意向与时间节奏已初见端倪：\n📍 可能开在哪里？",[1631,2336,2337],{},[1634,2338,2339],{},"国内首选地区：上海",[1638,2341,2342,2345],{},[1634,2343,2344],{},"官方意向：泡泡玛特创始人兼 CEO 王宁在股东大会上明确表示，上海是第二座泡泡玛特城市乐园的国内首选城市，目前团队正积极与当地进行对接与规划。",[1634,2346,2347],{},"辟谣澄清：此前网传“第二座乐园落地上海浦江郊野公园”，已被官方辟谣，确切的具体板块和选址仍在协商与规划阶段，尚未正式官宣。",[1631,2349,2350],{"start":21},[1634,2351,2352],{},"潜在拓展方向：海外热门市场（东南亚等）",[1638,2354,2355,2358,2365,2368,2371],{},[1634,2356,2357],{},"考虑到近年来 LABUBU 等 IP 在东南亚（特别是泰国）掀起现象级热潮，以及泡泡玛特加快“出海”和落地海外主题店\u002F体验空间的战略，市场也普遍推测未来不排除在东南亚核心城市（如曼谷）探索沉浸式大型体验空间的可能。\n📅 大概什么时候开？\n对于第二座乐园的落地落地，预计不会在短期内快速推进，具体时间节点受以下两个关键因素影响：",[1634,2359,2360,2361,2364],{},"运营策略优先级（稳扎稳打）：\n官方强调对乐园业务“",[831,2362,2363],{},"不以数量为目标","”，现阶段重点是积累重资产乐园的运营能力。因此不会像零售门店那样进行快速复制。",[1634,2366,2367],{},"北京一期乐园的扩建节奏：",[1634,2369,2370],{},"2026年7月底：北京朝阳公园的乐园一期完成升级（1.5期焕新开放）。",[1634,2372,2373],{},"2027年：北京乐园将启动二期工程建设（规划新增 SKULLPANDA 和星星人主题场景）。\n综合推断：第二座乐园（如上海项目）目前尚处于选址谈判和前期规划阶段。从大型主题公园的前期审批、设计到建设周期的常规规律来看，预计至少要到 2027 年及以后才有可能进入实质性的建设阶段。（2026-08-10）",[827,2375,2376],{},"网友：泡泡玛特必成，这装修跟苹果店一样，太有质感了，很高级。",[827,2378,2379],{},"大道：国外的门店可能还需要几年才能慢慢赶上国内的水平。拿到合适的好位置经常需要很久的，装修也需要时间。（2026-08-10）",[827,2381,2382],{},"网友：大道您好，我经常在小红书上刷到泡泡玛特的粉丝们对于店内常驻黄牛的吐槽（我自己去逛的时候也总能碰到），您认为这是需要被解决的事情吗？",[827,2384,2385],{},"大道：难道应该改成“红牛”？泡泡玛特的产品不是功能性产品，非常难预测需求，没人敢100%满足市场需求的，所以很多时候很难避免有点“黄牛”的。这个和茅台或者苹果不一样，我觉得茅台和苹果的产品长期有黄牛是不应该的。苹果已经解决了这个问题，茅台似乎也快要解决这个问题了？（2026-08-11）",[827,2387,2388],{},"网友：上一篇文章《泡泡玛特未来千亿美元市值，只是起点》，我拿 GDP 当尺子，量了一遍这门生意在全球有多大空间。\n文章发出来，后台留言不少。\n问得最多的一个问题是：国际化哪有那么容易？中国消费品出海这么多年，真正做成的品牌没几个，凭什么泡泡玛特可以？\n这个问题问得不算错。但在回...",[827,2390,2391],{},"大道：我觉得网上买很方便，我有空就会上去看看新品。不过美国网上似乎很缺货，新品不容易买到，只能等。（2026-08-17）",[827,2393,2394],{},"网友：大道，新加坡圣淘沙新开业的泡泡玛特旗舰店，很多货品灯光处理不好，显得暗淡，色温也该研究下；广州的店灯光就不错很显质感。作为重要景区的旗舰店，这样的细节是很大问题，有机会请帮忙转达！",[827,2396,2397],{},"大道：我对灯光不懂，但我知道他们是很注意灯光的。也许是你不喜欢柔性的灯光？但如果很多用户不喜欢，他们一定会调整的。等几天再看看？（2026-08-18）",[827,2399,2400],{},"网友：别人写的文章内容：原先我考虑美国在2025年底只有50多家店，2026年要开到100家，想当然地认为美国2026年业绩增长空间还很大。但现在才明白，泡泡开店数量和整体业绩增长并不是强绑定的，泡泡的增长是IP驱动，而非渠道驱动。\n我现在对开店数量祛魅了",[827,2402,2403],{},"大道：泡泡玛特开店是非常慎重的，每一家店都很小心。泡泡的产品我觉得有一定的随机消费性，店的合适密度也很重要。（2026-08-18）",[827,2405,2406],{},"网友：大温哥华最大的商场里popmart的选址我觉得还可以更好，目前在3楼的边角。不容易找到",[827,2408,2409],{},"大道：需要时间的，好的位置一般都有人了。但当商场发现你的生意很好的时候，应该会第一时间把机会留给你的。泡泡玛特可能还要三五年才能把大部分店头都放到比较好的位置吧。当然，有很多位置也是要试的吧？（2026-08-19）",[827,2411,2412],{},"网友：我个人经历每次都是开心或者庆祝的日子才会去线下商场吃饭，吃完带娃逛商场的时候，因为呢天心情好总想着消费，但是线下实体买衣服动不动就大几百上千，所以就买个盲盒玩玩，久而久之，现在每次带娃路过，娃都会要抽个盲盒开心一下\n所以选址确实重要，线下对于我们这种非ip粉有吸引力，庆祝的场景叠加人来疯效应",[827,2414,2415],{},"大道：泡泡的选址能力（barging power)是越来越强的，这也是泡泡护城河里面的一条很大的鳄鱼。（2026-08-19）",[827,2417,2418],{},"网友：前不久，我也在这儿巡过店，太会选址了",[827,2420,2421],{},"大道：哈，这个不叫会“选”址，这个地方给谁谁不想要啊？这个应该叫地主会选人，这个也是moat。（2026-08-22）",[827,2423,2424],{},"网友：王宁需要加强供应链管理，向库存克星库克学习！",[827,2426,2427],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的货值比较低（和苹果产品比），运费会比较高，所以库存一定是比苹果高很多的，除非也全部用空运（那个不现实）。（2026-08-20）",[827,2429,2430],{},"网友：1.成都宽窄巷子店：现场人很多，非常不喜欢结账的时候店员说的不退不换的提示（感觉语气很傲慢）\n2.成都大悦城店：逛的时候有个男店员会隔两分钟吼一句：欢迎光临，请随意挑选。声音很难听，向那种鸭子。",[827,2432,2433],{},"大道：不退不换是因为盲盒，语气如果有问题就确实要注意的。我也不喜欢店员一直在喊“欢迎光临”， 我喜欢在日本逛商店的感觉，小姐姐都是用很轻的声音说“欢迎光临”的。（2026-08-22）",[827,2435,2436],{},"大道：这次巡店我发现虽然门店生意极好，但似乎还是有改善用户体验的空间的。各地尤其是海外球友粉丝们逛店的时候有啥发现可以尽量简单明了地说说哈，希望能帮助公司更快地发现问题。（2026-08-22）",[827,2438,2439],{},"网友：段哥，提个泡泡玛特建议：线下门店不接受退货、退货要保证包装袋完整，这些期望能提示得更明显些。我买的冰箱贴摔坏了去店里退换，店员直接说门店不接受，还要包装袋完整，袋子我早扔了，感觉怪怪的；最后是店长耐心教我用小程序才换成的。",[827,2441,2442],{},"大道：如果是因为盲盒的原因不能退换我是能够理解的，如果是品质问题则不一样的哈。（2026-08-23）",[827,2444,2445],{},"网友：不知道这么多的评论王宁真的会看到并且转发给工作人员吗？ 新加坡圣淘沙甜品店预约只能约到一周之后，但是现在过去发现入座率一半都不到。不排除很多人预约了然后没去，建议改成如果预约超过15分钟不到属于放弃，把座位留给现场的人。",[827,2447,2448],{},"大道：甜品店要预约的呀？我去的时候确实是很满的，没看到有空座位。甜品味道中规中矩，ip对喜欢的人来说可能是有意思的。我吃了半个星星人冰激凌，味道还不错。（2026-08-23）",[827,2450,2451],{},"网友：城市乐园什么时候能开到更多的城市呢？珠三角或者长三角地区，以及成都之类的地方会考虑吗？感觉消费者们还是有很大的乐园需求，毕竟中国14亿人，大型的乐园真的好少。",[827,2453,2454],{},"大道：乐园不太可能开太多的。整个中国开两到三个应该就满了吧？现在北京有一个了，未来上海可能会有一个。再下一个还真不知道会是哪里，也许西南？（2026-08-24）",[827,2456,2457],{},"网友：8月22日出差到美国达拉斯，在北德州最大的奥特莱斯 Grapevine Mills 偶遇了一家泡泡玛特。相对于这个商场的大小和人流量，这家店只能说过于小了，估计40平米左右，建议阔店。问店员有没有美国元素的玩偶，也没有。",[827,2459,2460],{},"大道：哈，找个好门店不容易，需要很久时间的。先要找到好位置（得有人让出来），然后要谈判各种条件，然后要装修，然后还……。我觉得泡泡官方是肯定想找到足够大的门店的，但实在找不到的情况下，先开个小一点的也没关系，至少能让地主知道你的生意很好，那样的话，他们会很努力帮你找大点儿位置更好的地方的。（2026-08-24）",[827,2462,2463],{},"网友：APP\u002F精灵小屋每天体验都很差：\n1.亲密度没有进度条，根本不知道今天增长的数量，还要拿计算器算，算出来有150第二天又没有150，根本不知道问题出现在哪里。\n2.买经验值要点25次，每次要两三秒，像疯了一样戳屏幕，不能直接一次性买？\n3.互动真就得等一个完整动画结束，每天等好几个，浪费时间。\n不是做过几年游戏吗，为什么这么简单的小屋都做不好细节，发布前没有人体验一下吗？",[827,2465,2466],{},"大道：会不会游戏的基因不够强大？（2026-08-28）",[827,2468,2469],{},"网友：第一次线上抽盲盒，喜欢星星人美味时刻系列。第一个抽到了不喜欢的咖啡牛奶浴，然后又抽了一次，还是咖啡牛奶浴，心态直接崩了。我在想连续抽中自己不喜欢的概率是1\u002F144。我不相信概率这么低的事情被我碰到。这里面一定在算法上搞了鬼。这样没有传递快乐，反而传递了焦虑。",[827,2471,2472],{},"大道：抽中隐藏款的概率是1\u002F144，你对概率的理解可能有点误会？（2026-08-28）",[827,2474,2475],{},"网友：大道，您好！我关注泡泡玛特是从它的盲盒和拉布布爆火开始的，跟大多数人一样，但是考虑买入是看到您从不懂到懂一点到快速完成近8%的持仓占比，而绝对出手是看到其乐园和面包店的开业，推测其二次三次增长曲线的强大想象力，不知道您怎么看待泡泡玛特的乐园业务，以及其他新兴业务，如面包店，电影等",[827,2477,2478],{},"大道：乐园和其他都是生态，利润上不要指望太多的。（2026-09-21）",[827,2480,2481],{},"网友（原帖节录）：泡泡玛特 2026 年半年报里，国内零售店的表现很值得单独拎出来说：收入同比增长 38.2%，但门店数量同比只增加了 2.7%（多了 12 家）。收入涨了近四成，店却几乎没多开。这个反差背后的答案，或许就藏在泡泡玛特一向的“克制”哲学里。【原帖后文在抓取数据中截断】",[827,2483,2484],{},"大道：不是克制，是理性？（2026-09-29）",[827,2486,2487],{},"大道：想了想，克制其实就是理性地表现。（2026-09-29）",[822,2489,2491],{"id":2490},"第六节-建仓期权与市场声音","第六节 建仓、期权与市场声音",[827,2493,2494],{},"网友：财主说泡泡玛特线上销量掉得厉害，这个还是要小心。",[827,2496,2497],{},"大道：怎么小心，先卖了吗？经常看到人们提醒别人要小心这个小心那个，但怎么小心却不告诉你。（2026-04-09）",[827,2499,2500],{},"网友：最近把能找到关于泡泡玛特以及王宁的书籍和视频基本上全部看完了，再小结一下：",[827,2502,2503],{},"1.泡泡玛特还很年轻，真正做到全球化，从规模和影响力还有很长、很远的路，有足够大的梦想空间。",[827,2505,2506],{},"2.“拉布布”爆款玩偶绝不是昙花一现，只要IP正确的持续经营和投入，“拉布布”现象就会一直持续，当然也可能是别的“拉布布”。",[827,2508,2509,2510,2512],{},"3.泡泡玛特的",[862,2511,70],{"href":864},"还远未打磨到最理想的状态，延展可能性非常多，还在不断摸索的路上，这个也不必着急，王宁讲的“减宽加深”就是做对的事，慢慢来，“尊重时间、尊重经营”。",[827,2514,2515,2516,2519],{},"4.发展得太快不一定是好事，可贵的是王宁和他的团队对发展速度有着很",[862,2517,222],{"href":2518},"\u002Flixing","的认知。",[827,2521,2522],{},"5.看过《因为独特》和相关视频，解决了我两个核心的疑虑，人们为什么买泡泡玛特？会持续买吗？",[827,2524,2525,2526,1425,2528,834],{},"6.我会继续买入泡泡玛特的股票，这是我想加仓的第三只股票，已持有",[831,2527,833],{},[831,2529,2530],{},"腾讯",[827,2532,2533,2534,1425,2536,2538],{},"7.折磨自己的一点是，拿目前的",[831,2535,833],{},[831,2537,2530],{},"换泡泡玛特又很纠结，都不贵，都想买。哎！",[827,2540,2541],{},"不知道大道有没有拿别的股票换一些泡泡玛特的想法？还是等闲钱来了，慢慢地开您的泡泡玛特保险公司？",[827,2543,2544],{},"大道：慢慢调集资金吧，不然就先收点保费就好。（2026-04-10）",[827,2546,2547],{},"网友：您的公开关注对（泡泡玛特的）股价应该会有向上的影响，那这样还能在合适的价格买够么……",[827,2549,2550],{},"大道：你觉得我在乎吗？（2026-04-12）",[827,2552,2553,2554,2556,2557,2559,2560,2562],{},"网友：大道，目前",[831,2555,833],{},"占我40%仓位，有点想卖点",[831,2558,833],{},"换泡泡玛特的冲动了。感觉泡泡玛特未来十年的国际化集团化的成长空间更高点，现在的价格也更便宜点，好像从",[862,2561,115],{"href":1093},"来讲更划算？有点纠结，请教一下大道。",[827,2564,2565],{},"大道：也许你可以考虑其他的60%部分？（2026-04-11）",[827,2567,2568,2569,2571],{},"网友：（有网友分析",[831,2570,843],{},"卖出泡泡玛特认沽期权的用意：一是以更低成本建仓，先收一笔权利金把实际成本降下来；二是若股价跌到行权价以下就顺势接货）",[827,2573,2574,2575,2577],{},"大道：真实的原因是：我是个满仓主义者，绝大部分钱都已经在其他的投资上了。尽管如此，我可以先卖些put，同时考虑用哪些投资去换（",[862,2576,115],{"href":1093},"）。我不在乎股价因此就涨上去了，我少赚点就当做公益哈，反正我赚到钱也是拿来做公益的。如果put不进来，我还是能赚到premium的，如果put进来，我觉得我会赚到更多哈。（2026-04-14）",[827,2579,2580,2581,2583],{},"网友：本质还是不够看好？",[831,2582,868],{},"当时是怎么买入的？",[827,2585,2586,2587,2589],{},"大道：我的",[831,2588,868],{},"绝大部分都是put进来的，至少90%以上吧。（2026-04-14）",[827,2591,2592],{},"网友：您这十万张put已经把香港的高盛搞傻了，股价上蹿下跳。",[827,2594,2595],{},"大道：卖put其实也是会受到限制的，我已经被限制了，只能等到期后才能卖新的了。我的卖put的上限是225000张，已经满了。（2026-04-14）",[827,2597,2598],{},"网友：融券有200亿空单，占总股本10%，这个做空比例在港股也是相当高了。空头可能本来以为大道几十亿卖put筑底，要被吓死了。",[827,2600,2601],{},"大道：空头不需要操心我的，我大概率不会超过5%，不想烦这类事情哈。（2026-04-14）",[827,2603,2604],{},"网友：（有网友指出，港股泡泡玛特的期权一张合约对应200股而非100股，这意味着实际卖出的put对应的股数是原以为的两倍）",[827,2606,2607],{},"大道：确实是的，一直没注意到这个。还好卖的是put，不然就麻烦了。（2026-04-14）",[827,2609,2610],{},"大道：前些天因为有球友提醒我泡泡玛特的option一个contract是200股，刚刚看到时以为是乱讲的，就屏蔽掉了，不好意思（一般来说，给我提各种建议的我都会屏蔽的，但这次说的是个fact，我误会了）。如果看到这条可以告诉我，我解除屏蔽哈。（2026-04-29）",[827,2612,2613],{},"网友：老段的put四月底到期，我看老段能put买进多少？空头颤抖吧，我在看戏，越来越精彩。",[827,2615,2616],{},"大道：瞎激动啥？买put的很多都是多头，他们买个保险而已。这次买股票同时买put的人大概是赚的吧。（2026-04-15）",[827,2618,2619],{},"网友：想问大道，假如泡泡短期不再下跌，您赚到了卖put的权利金，却没能行权持有股票，而您判断泡泡是有长期投资价值的票，您不觉得遗憾吗？",[827,2621,2622],{},"大道：那肯定没你遗憾吧？（2026-04-20）",[827,2624,2625],{},"网友：我在您卖出的当天或是第二天买入了的，向您报告。",[827,2627,2628],{},"大道：那掉下来你就遗憾了吧？干嘛把人生搞得那么纠结？put expired了我还可以卖下个月的吗？你以后日子不过了？日拱一卒也还不错嘛。（2026-04-20）",[827,2630,2631],{},"网友：（有网友继续追问段永平后续会在泡泡玛特上如何操作）",[827,2633,2634],{},"大道：我不会再公布以后会在泡泡玛特上做什么。（2026-04-29）",[827,2636,2637],{},"大道：我把我的神华都换了泡泡玛特了。我觉得神华是家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过了！将来有机会我还会再回来的。I'll be back!（2026-05-07）",[827,2639,2640,2641,2643],{},"网友：段老师您好，我目前已经全仓",[831,2642,833],{},"半年了，我在想要不要调一部分仓位给泡泡玛特，望赐教。",[827,2645,2646,2647,2649],{},"大道：我今天还买了",[831,2648,833],{},"啊，你会凌乱吗？（2026-05-07）",[827,2651,2652,2653,2655],{},"网友：神华是备胎，2012年遇到",[831,2654,833],{},"被甩一次，2026年遇到泡泡玛特又被甩一次。",[827,2657,2658,2659,2661],{},"大道：还真是，买",[831,2660,833],{},"的时候确实卖掉了当时手里的神华。（2026-05-08）",[827,2663,2664,2665,2668],{},"网友：想请教您，如果您投资的一家公司",[862,2666,110],{"href":2667},"\u002Fjibenmian","没有变，只是股价涨了很多，您卖出会考虑PE的绝对值还是PE的历史分位数？例如神华，如果没有像泡泡玛特这样的投资机会，您还会卖出吗？",[827,2670,2671],{},"大道：我觉得神华是可以长期拿着的，我卖的原因是卖神华可以用卖的港币直接买泡泡哈。（2026-05-16）",[827,2673,2674],{},"网友：段哥，泡泡玛特能算您20个孔中的其中一个吗？",[827,2676,2677],{},"大道：应该算了。（2026-07-02）",[827,2679,2680],{},"网友：（有网友估算段永平的泡泡玛特“保险公司”每个月的权利金收入在2亿港币上下）",[827,2682,2683,2684,2686,2687,2689],{},"大道：泡泡玛特的",[862,2685,70],{"href":864},"不是那种直线向上的模式，但在其很好的",[862,2688,135],{"href":1008},"下，长期是看好的。用点Option慢慢积累股份可能是个比较好的办法。（2026-07-04）",[827,2691,2692],{},"大道：苹果\n持有=买入， 这个价格拿住也不容易哈。我要多卖点call了。收的钱买点泡泡玛特。（2026-07-19）",[827,2694,2695],{},"网友：阿段不会要减点泡泡玛特仓位去买马斯克的SPACE X吧？算是下一个孔吧？",[827,2697,2698],{},"大道：泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。（2026-07-23）",[827,2700,2701],{},"大道：其实主要是put到期影响比较大，另外有部分当时买的时候就直接卖了call了。可能未来在一定的价格区间我会一直这么做。从一开始我就说过了，泡泡玛特保险公司开张了。很多人看不懂这句话！（2026-08-05）",[827,2703,2704],{},"网友：段哥，这种开保险公司方法，在像泡泡玛特近期的震荡市可能非常有效。但在波动向上的时期，比如泡泡玛特去年的大部分时间，或者单边波动向下时期，可能不如持有正股收益高。我的理解不知道对不对？",[827,2706,2707],{},"大道：做option最关键的是，长期看这个交易是不是对的！比如，我如果觉得从10年后回头看，泡泡玛特目前价格肯定不贵，那我卖个put就不会是赔本买卖。少赚不是问题，毕竟也是年化50%的机会啊。那些嫌我赚少了的人们肯定都是高手吧？长期看合不合适是最关键的，不能以premium高低来决定可不可以做。（2026-08-06）",[827,2709,2710],{},"大道：港交所这个规定和美股不一样，美股Option好像是不用报备的。卖put算“好仓”还真是不太习惯，因为put没有投票权，没有分红权的。（2026-08-06）",[827,2712,2713],{},"大道：泡泡玛特\n今年一月到期的那天，我是看涨还是看空还是减持？7个月赚了20%+，满意否？一切实际上在下单的时候就已经决定了！（2026-08-06）",[827,2715,2716],{},"网友：股价涨破行权价时，他本可以买入平仓（Buy to Close）把股票保住，却让这2,793万股被call走，说明他对这个行权价格落袋为安是接受且满意的。",[827,2718,2719],{},"大道：我是不会买Option的， 除非有税务考量或者需要roll。我继续卖put就可以了啊。（2026-08-06）",[827,2721,2722],{},"网友：阿段老师的泡泡玛特看跌期权是140元吗？",[827,2724,2725],{},"大道：都有啊。140多到160多都有。我其实不那么在乎什么价钱，只要在心理价位以下我都可以卖put的。（2026-08-07）",[827,2727,2728],{},"网友：其实港交所的个股期权持仓限制是按照市场方向（好仓，淡仓）合并计算的\n这个方法恐怕并不能规避\n泡泡玛特 个股期权持仓上限应该是25万张，大概等于5000万股。\n另外大道似乎还在低调搜集12月的DIM Call, 也是近万张的级别",[827,2730,2731],{},"大道：我不买option！港交所上限是25万张，我的broker给的上限是22.5万张，一旦超过就直接锁账号了，所以我是不敢卖到上限的，差不多就停了因为有时候不下心就过了。我已经被锁过两次了，都是红酒惹的祸。（2026-08-13）",[827,2733,2734],{},"网友：一周之内，段永平在泡泡玛特上“减持”又“增持”，持仓从7.65%降到5.55%，一周后又回到7.70%。\n市场上两种声音吵翻了天：\n一种说“刚说完10年不卖就跑路，言行不一”；\n另一种更狠：“段永平在唱票收割散户。”\n两种都错了。错得离谱。\n今天不站队，...",[827,2736,2737],{},"大道：我实际上从来就没有直接卖过一股泡泡玛特，但有一部分股票是买完后就直接卖call了的，这个和直接卖put是完全一样的交易。卖put有上限，所以接近上限的时候我就会采用买股+卖call的方式。到期了被call走和put到期expired是完全一样的结果。确实有很多人不懂乱讲，但未来相当长的时间里我可能都会采用类似的策略，大家多看看就明白了。目前option交易差不多有5%\u002F月上下的premium。目前泡泡玛特的价位长期看我认为是不贵的，短期不知道，这也是我这么做的内在逻辑。这种做法有可能会让我少赚钱，但也是个比较保守的方法。当然，如果premium掉下来了后我可能会改变策略的。我确实没有什么时候什么价位要卖出的打算，也许很长的时间里都不会有。卖put只是一个策略而已，我在其他投资上也是一直如此的。我之前说过，我的苹果可能80-90%都是put进来的。（2026-08-13）",[827,2739,2740],{},"网友：内地的朋友现在只能通过港股通买泡泡玛特了，不能学习段老师卖put，就一直拿着呗，段老师有没有什么建议？",[827,2742,2743],{},"大道：一直拿着很可能是最好的策略，除非你像我这么闲。（2026-08-13）",[827,2745,2746,2747,2749],{},"网友：（2026年4月，",[831,2748,843],{},"通过卖出认沽期权建仓泡泡玛特，触及期权持仓上限，网友们各种解读）",[827,2751,2752],{},"大道：乱解释！225000 contracts是针对某个股的，目的是为了限制有人偷偷买够5%。这次一个contract是200股吓了我一跳，还好离触及5%还有点空间。业余就是业余，居然没注意这个东西。我卖的put是4\u002F29到期的，过期了就可以继续买股或者卖put。（2026-04-15）",[827,2754,2755,2756,1425,2758,2760],{},"大道：SEC这个规矩比较笼统，可能是为了方便好执行吧。香港交易所采用了类似的标准。我在",[831,2757,2530],{},[831,2759,868],{},"上都遇到过这类问题，也都是225000的限制，call和put都是。（2026-04-15）",[827,2762,2763],{},"网友：（问为什么不直接买正股）",[827,2765,2766],{},"大道：是因为我需要一点时间去考虑用什么股来换，所以先卖个put再说。价钱是不是便宜每个人看法不一样哈。（2026-04-15）",[827,2768,2769],{},"网友：有没有这么一种情况：大道确定的买入只是次要因素，主力可能已经知道了一季度的营收利润。",[827,2771,2772],{},"大道：哪有什么主力哈，都是一堆短线炒家而已。（2026-04-14）",[827,2774,2775],{},"网友：亲爱的段总，接盘泡泡玛特是我见过最糟糕的操盘，这将是你投资生涯的最大失误，泡泡玛特只会腰斩再腰斩，没有前途的！",[827,2777,2778],{},"大道：哈，好多像你这样的人过去30多年都这么说来着。（2026-04-28）",[827,2780,2781],{},"网友：有人质疑你真的看好泡泡、准备长期拿的话，为什么以卖put形式买入，而不是买正股？",[827,2783,2784],{},"大道：这个世界自以为比我聪明的人很多，我喜欢慢慢来。（2026-04-28）",[827,2786,2787],{},"网友：空头最近的意思，就是打到接近150的行权价，让大道有点紧张感，腾出资金准备行权；然后又迅速拉起来，最终行不了权。",[827,2789,2790],{},"大道：哈哈，紧张？你以为别人都跟你一样在炒股票么？（2026-04-29）",[827,2792,2793],{},"网友：很显然对于段来说150的行权价就是合理价格，这点都看不明白吗？",[827,2795,2796],{},"大道：你才不明白的吧？Any price at this level will be a good price!（2026-04-29）",[827,2798,2799],{},"网友：没有跟进您的泡泡玛特，会不会是我这辈子最后悔的一件事情。",[827,2801,2802],{},"大道：希望是的吧，难道你希望有更多其他后悔的事情？（2026-05-31）",[827,2804,2805],{},"网友：本来我也看不懂泡泡，段总改变主意后，我也放下傲气，认真的去了解了，并全仓买入了。",[827,2807,2808],{},"大道：我买一点点你就全仓了，是赌吗？（2026-06-27）",[827,2810,2811,2812,2814],{},"网友：看到你说投了泡泡玛特后，我去用AI工具查资料、看书、去店里实际感受，研究下来也买入了，走出了以前一边说要做",[862,2813,58],{"href":1001},"一边忍不住盯盘投机的分裂状态。",[827,2816,2817],{},"大道：希望掉个30%后你还能这么想哈。（2026-07-07）",[827,2819,2820],{},"网友：港股跌30%小意思，分分钟的事，波动太大了。",[827,2822,2823,2824,2826],{},"大道：我买了",[831,2825,868],{},"之后，掉30%也不是一次两次啊。（2026-07-07）",[827,2828,2829],{},"网友：完蛋，媒体解读：段大佬说泡泡还要跌30%。",[827,2831,2832],{},"大道：完什么蛋？不是该高兴吗？（2026-07-07）",[827,2834,2835],{},"网友：（网友分享在深圳门店蹲点观察人群、买单和客流情况后对泡泡玛特的理解，请大道点拨）",[827,2837,2838],{},"大道：关键是你需要有自己的独立思考能力，别人怎么看不重要，不管他是谁。（2026-07-12）",[827,2840,2841],{},"网友：大道老师你好，泡泡玛特中报业绩增长不及大众预期。主要原因是美洲、亚太、欧洲线上销售拉胯(同比减半)，拖累整体业绩。想知道您是怎么想的？国外线上销售业绩恢复难度有多大？",[827,2843,2844],{},"大道：我不关心大众预期，只关心公司未来会怎么样，不然我凭什么赚钱？（2026-08-20）",[827,2846,2847],{},"网友：泡泡玛特这次中报利润率下降、海外收入负增长、库存周转变慢，管理层也说今年大概率完不成20%的增长目标。对一个准备长期持有的投资者来说，什么样的事实会让您重新评估最初的买入逻辑？您判断“看错了”的标准是什么？",[827,2849,2850],{},"大道：从你的问题看，你显然不是一个打算长期持有的股东，你远离就好啊。（2026-08-21）",[827,2852,2853,2854,2856],{},"网友：段总好，以您对王宁的欣赏，如果在泡泡玛特startup阶段就认识王宁，您会不会也像当年支持黄峥一样，给泡泡玛特一笔天使投资呢？",[862,2855,58],{"href":1001},"是right 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