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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":622,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":26,"date":9,"description":624,"editor":2887,"extension":2888,"meta":2889,"navigation":2890,"order":625,"path":2891,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2892,"seoDescription":624,"seoTitle":2893,"slug":623,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":1365,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2894,"sourceStatus":2895,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2896,"stem":2897,"summary":624,"tags":2898,"type":435,"updatedAt":2902,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"__hash__":2903,"_collection":2904},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-tech-platforms.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2868},"minimark",[821,826,830,841,850,853,856,861,867,876,897,908,914,919,928,934,939,945,961,964,969,995,1007,1017,1023,1029,1048,1063,1082,1088,1099,1105,1122,1128,1145,1154,1159,1165,1188,1191,1200,1203,1212,1221,1234,1240,1245,1252,1257,1263,1268,1274,1282,1290,1296,1301,1307,1315,1323,1329,1335,1345,1348,1354,1360,1370,1382,1385,1388,1391,1394,1397,1400,1405,1408,1415,1420,1426,1429,1434,1437,1442,1445,1450,1453,1458,1464,1469,1472,1481,1486,1489,1494,1497,1500,1503,1508,1514,1521,1532,1535,1540,1546,1553,1556,1562,1567,1570,1575,1581,1586,1592,1597,1600,1603,1606,1609,1614,1619,1624,1627,1632,1638,1641,1646,1649,1657,1660,1665,1668,1673,1687,1699,1702,1707,1710,1713,1716,1726,1733,1743,1748,1754,1768,1774,1777,1782,1785,1795,1801,1807,1813,1816,1825,1831,1836,1839,1844,1850,1859,1862,1865,1871,1877,1880,1883,1886,1889,1892,1895,1898,1901,1904,1907,1912,1915,1924,1929,1932,1942,1956,1968,1987,2009,2012,2021,2027,2033,2036,2039,2042,2045,2048,2052,2061,2068,2071,2076,2079,2084,2091,2098,2101,2104,2107,2110,2115,2124,2129,2135,2138,2144,2149,2155,2164,2167,2170,2173,2178,2182,2186,2189,2194,2200,2203,2209,2212,2215,2223,2229,2235,2238,2241,2244,2247,2250,2253,2256,2259,2262,2265,2268,2271,2274,2286,2289,2294,2297,2300,2303,2306,2313,2316,2324,2327,2333,2339,2342,2347,2357,2366,2369,2372,2383,2386,2398,2410,2420,2423,2428,2434,2448,2460,2463,2466,2469,2475,2478,2481,2484,2487,2490,2493,2496,2499,2502,2505,2508,2511,2514,2517,2520,2525,2528,2533,2536,2541,2544,2547,2550,2553,2556,2559,2562,2565,2568,2571,2574,2577,2580,2583,2586,2589,2599,2602,2605,2608,2614,2617,2623,2626,2629,2632,2635,2638,2641,2644,2647,2650,2653,2656,2659,2662,2665,2668,2671,2674,2677,2680,2683,2686,2689,2692,2695,2698,2701,2704,2711,2720,2725,2733,2741,2744,2747,2750,2753,2756,2759,2762,2766,2769,2775,2778,2781,2784,2787,2790,2794,2799,2810,2816,2819,2824,2827,2832,2835,2840,2843,2846,2852,2857,2860,2865],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-互联网平台","第一节 互联网平台",[827,828,829],"h3",{"id":829},"腾讯",[831,832,833,834,837,838,840],"p",{},"网友：我觉得",[835,836,829],"strong",{},"是一家卑鄙无耻的公司，在网上很多人都骂",[835,839,829],{},"。",[831,842,843,846,847],{},[835,844,845],{},"段永平："," ",[835,848,849],{},"有人骂不一定是坏事，最不好的其实是没人骂。(2010-03-28)",[831,851,852],{},"网友：今天安装了一个鲁班大师在补丁更新的时候360竟然提示会导致系统崩溃！感觉太霸道了。我就真不信！结果系统好好的速度还更快了。想想QQ群和好友那些天天都要用360的话我还有卡巴斯基呢。尽管他以前帮我杀了些卡巴斯基不能杀的恶意程序。我还是把他给卸载了。卸载360杀毒的时候竟然让我填问题回答感觉有些小孩了。像诺亚传说防外挂一样呵呵！",[831,854,855],{},"依次卸了360杀毒 360安全卫士 360保镖。这下电脑清净了！企业的事情搞不懂 不过本身提供服务的企业太霸道了我是接受不了！",[831,857,858,860],{},[835,859,845],{}," 能真的卸载就不错了。以前装过一个叫3721的东西，装完就发现不对，马上想卸载却无论如何找不到卸载的办法，最后只好重新装了一次机，腾讯要厚道些，我装过3次QQ，都是一装就发现被加了很多东西，然后我就卸载了，不过好像有一次也有点什么卸不干净的，但没认真查。以前装过一次迅雷，也是一装就被强行装上了很多东西，非常不舒服，不过卸载很方便。",[831,862,863,866],{},[835,864,865],{},"我也不太明白为什么我们这么多企业对自己那么没信心，非要做那么短视的事情。"," （2010-11-06）",[831,868,833,869,871,872,875],{},[835,870,829],{},"的模式比",[835,873,874],{},"苹果","还牛。",[831,877,878,880,881,883,884,886,887,889,890,893,894,896],{},[835,879,845],{}," 让",[835,882,829],{},"上6000亿美元试试？",[835,885,829],{},"确实是不错的公司，但要成为",[835,888,874],{},"还需要很多东西，包括大环境的变化。顺便说一下什么叫",[835,891,892],{},"生意模式",":",[835,895,892],{},"就是赚钱的模式，最后赚得越多的模式就应该越好。",[831,898,899,901,902,904,905,907],{},[835,900,874],{},"现在一年的利润比中国所有互联网公司(包括",[835,903,829],{},")从开办以来赚的利润的总和都要多，你说",[835,906,829],{},"的模式更好的逻辑是啥？(2013-03-04)",[831,909,910,911,913],{},"网友：每次你分析公司总能直达本质，一针见血。估摸着大道要出手",[835,912,829],{},"了。",[831,915,916,918],{},[835,917,845],{}," 长长的坡，厚厚的雪！(2018-10-15)",[831,920,921,922,924,925,927],{},"最近确实已经投了一些了，但比例还很小。用",[835,923,874],{},"换似乎有点不舍得，我似乎更懂",[835,926,874],{},"些。要再仔细想想。(2018-10-16)",[831,929,930,931,933],{},"网友：段总好，假如有一天FB(脸书)进入中国后会对",[835,932,829],{},"有很大的影响吗，特别是现在的年轻人基于好奇和好玩的心理。",[831,935,936,938],{},[835,937,845],{}," 那时候现在的年轻人可能都已经很老了。(2018-10-17)",[831,940,941,942,944],{},"网友：未来10到15年，您认为",[835,943,829],{},"能到的市值是多少？",[831,946,947,949,950,952,953,955,956,960],{},[835,948,845],{}," 市值是别人愿意出多少钱买这家公司的意思。我不知道别人愿意出多少钱买这家公司，所以我不知道",[835,951,829],{},"能到多少市值。不过，我认为",[835,954,829],{},"这家公司大概率10到15年内一年可以赚2000-3000亿人民币，愿意出多少钱买这家公司完全取决于你自己的",[957,958,115],"a",{"href":959},"\u002Fjihuichengben","。(2019-03-14)",[831,962,963],{},"网友：您之前说买腾讯是因为您看到未来十年他可能会创造2000-3000亿的年利润，请问这个数字是怎么样的出来的呢？看了您以前的文章您几乎都能提前五六年预测苹果和茅台的收入和利润而且他们俩还真做到了！请问您是根据什么来做出这些神预测？",[831,965,966,968],{},[835,967,845],{}," 其实都是瞎猜的。生意模式好，企业文化好，基本上你就可以简单地希望他们会正常增长，所以给个五年十年的，有增长不奇怪啊。关键是要看懂生意和商业模式。（2019-03-17）",[831,970,971,972,974,975,924,977,979,980,982,983,985,986,988,989,991,992,994],{},"网友：大道您好，关于",[835,973,829],{},"您在2018年10月份说过“最近确实已经投了一些了，但比例还很小。用",[835,976,874],{},[835,978,874],{},"些。要再仔细想想。”，能从您自己的",[957,981,115],{"href":959},"讲讲卖了些",[835,984,874],{},"买",[835,987,829],{},"的原因么。您也讲过不要为了调仓而调仓，两家都是好公司，",[835,990,829],{},"的PE(市盈率)要比",[835,993,874],{},"高不少。",[831,996,997,998,1000,1001,1003,1004,1006],{},"另外您是在中国香港买的",[835,999,829],{},"么，在美国用美元买",[835,1002,829],{},"ADR(美国存托凭证)和在中国香港买",[835,1005,829],{},"股票有啥区别么？我人在美国。",[831,1008,1009,1011,1012,985,1014,1016],{},[835,1010,845],{}," 我们没有卖",[835,1013,874],{},[835,1015,829],{},"，所以ADR买的不多。用人民币买了不少港股。ADR每年要交管理费，不如在中国香港买。(2019-03-15)",[831,1018,1019,1020,1022],{},"我觉得10年后回过头来看，",[835,1021,829],{},"赚的钱(我买的份额占的比例)应该比我存银行的利息要多。(2019-03-16)",[831,1024,1025,1026,1028],{},"网友：您去年建仓",[835,1027,829],{},"肯定是基于多年的观察，您投资前有做过什么功课吗？",[831,1030,1031,1033,1034,1037,1038,1041,1042,1044,1045,1047],{},[835,1032,845],{}," 我投资的标准很简单：",[957,1035,70],{"href":1036},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","，",[957,1039,135],{"href":1040},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","，合理价钱。所以当",[957,1043,70],{"href":1036},"和",[957,1046,135],{"href":1040},"不错的公司价钱也不错时，我就会有兴趣。(2019-03-17)",[831,1049,1050,1051,1053,1054,1056,1057,1059,1060,1062],{},"网友：你对",[835,1052,874],{},"说得多，对",[835,1055,829],{},"很少提，你如何看",[835,1058,829],{},"的",[957,1061,135],{"href":1040},"?",[831,1064,1065,1067,1068,1070,1071,1073,1074,1076,1078,1079,1081],{},[835,1066,845],{}," 我对",[835,1069,874],{},"了解比较多，对",[835,1072,829],{},"了解相对少。直觉上觉得",[835,1075,829],{},[957,1077,70],{"href":1036},"非常不错，",[957,1080,135],{"href":1040},"也还可以哈。(2019-04-11)",[831,1083,1084,1085,1087],{},"网友：大道您好，请问您最认可",[835,1086,829],{},"这家企业哪些方面，什么本质层面竞争优势，能让您下决心持有10年以上？",[831,1089,1090,846,1092,1095,1096,1098],{},[835,1091,845],{},[835,1093,1094],{},"马化腾","人不错，而且年轻，微信及微信支付的影响非常大且深远。我们确实买了一点",[835,1097,829],{},"，但比例很小。(2019-10-15)",[831,1100,1101,1102,1104],{},"网友：您觉得",[835,1103,829],{},"10年后会怎样？能看到50年吗？",[831,1106,1107,1109,1110,1112,1113,1115,1116,1118,1119,1121],{},[835,1108,845],{}," 简单讲，",[835,1111,829],{},"就是通过建立社交媒体，将流量货币化了。感觉10年后",[835,1114,829],{},"应该依然强大，但50年就不好说了。我对",[835,1117,829],{},"的理解度远不如",[835,1120,874],{},"，所以投的比例也小很多。(2020-10-09)",[831,1123,1124,1125,1127],{},"网友：大道评价一下阿里跟",[835,1126,829],{},"吧？",[831,1129,1130,1132,1133,1136,1137,1139,1140,1059,1142,1144],{},[835,1131,845],{}," 我觉得阿里的",[957,1134,74],{"href":1135},"\u002Fhuchenghe","没有",[835,1138,829],{},"的宽，但今日的出现让人觉得",[835,1141,829],{},[957,1143,74],{"href":1135},"也没那么宽了。投资确实很难哈。(2022-03-09)",[831,1146,1147,1148,1150,1151,1153],{},"网友：感觉大道在",[835,1149,829],{},"的买入上还是要保守些，相对",[835,1152,874],{},"来说。",[831,1155,1156,1158],{},[835,1157,845],{}," 是的，目前还不到1%，还不算实质性投入。还在想……(2022-08-02)",[831,1160,1161,1162,1164],{},"网友：确定的好是第一位的，从长期来看只有确定的好才可能是便宜的，或许",[835,1163,874],{},"便宜些。",[831,1166,1167,1169,1170,1172,1173,1175,1176,1178,1179,1181,1182,1184,1185,1187],{},[835,1168,845],{}," 是的，",[835,1171,829],{},"对我来说确定性确实比",[835,1174,874],{},"小不少，这也是现阶段一直下不了大决心多买的原因。",[835,1177,874],{},"下来的时候我完全不用下决心就能下买单哈。不过，",[835,1180,829],{},"对我而言依然是非卖品，找到一个",[957,1183,70],{"href":1036},"好的公司不容易。我猜未来几年内我还会有机会进一步加仓",[835,1186,829],{},"的，目前确实还是有些事情没想清楚。",[831,1189,1190],{},"(2022-08-07)",[831,1192,1193,1194,1196,1197,1199],{},"我对",[835,1195,874],{},"确实完全不操心，掉多少都不往心里去。",[835,1198,829],{},"总是觉得懂得不透，下不了重手。",[831,1201,1202],{},"网友：最疑虑的点是哪些？",[831,1204,1205,1207,1208,1211],{},[835,1206,845],{}," 未来",[957,1209,88],{"href":1210},"\u002Fxianjinliu","看不透。(2022-10-05)",[831,1213,1214,1215,1044,1218,1220],{},"网友：大道唯独对",[835,1216,1217],{},"茅台",[835,1219,874],{},"买入的价格没那么敏感，基本是有钱就买。",[831,1222,1223,1169,1225,1227,1228,1230,1231,1233],{},[835,1224,845],{},[835,1226,874],{},"跌得多的时候我一定会买的，",[835,1229,1217],{},"经常会，",[835,1232,829],{},"有时候也会买一点。(2022-10-30)",[831,1235,1236,1237,1239],{},"网友：请教下你如何看",[835,1238,829],{},"的企业愿景？",[831,1241,1242,1244],{},[835,1243,845],{}," 以前是“做一家受人尊敬的互联网公司”，现在是“用户为本，科技向善”。我非常喜欢新的愿景！太牛了！八个字，该有的都有了！老的那个我很久以前就说过，不是很喜欢。",[831,1246,1247,1248,1251],{},"网友：“应该有的都有了”，指的应该是",[957,1249,53],{"href":1250},"\u002Fxiaofeizhedaoxiang","和利润之上的追求这两条。同样很喜欢，现在的愿景，英文是Value for Users, Tech for Good。",[831,1253,1254,1256],{},[835,1255,845],{}," 我喜欢你的解释！(2023-12-12)",[831,1258,1259,1260,1262],{},"网友：这或许就是大道一直不重仓",[835,1261,829],{},"的缘由吧？",[831,1264,1265,1267],{},[835,1266,845],{}," 原因之一吧。我们买的到底是什么很重要。(2023-12-26)",[831,1269,1270,1271,1273],{},"我一直在投资",[835,1272,829],{},"啊，只是投得比较少而已。有些顾虑挥之不去，只好慢慢来了。(2023-12-28)",[831,1275,1276,1277,1279,1280,1062],{},"网友：老段这个算法怎么回事？",[835,1278,829],{},"投资部分公允5000多亿，账面价值3000多亿，看利润用的是哪个，扣非净利润，自由",[957,1281,88],{"href":1210},[831,1283,1284,1286,1287,1289],{},[835,1285,845],{}," 我没算过，但你可以假设",[835,1288,829],{},"把投资都卖掉，把钱还完债务后全部用来回购，完了你再算P\u002FE就比较真实了。这是假设，没必要但可以这么做。(2024-08-17)",[831,1291,1292,1293,1295],{},"如果考虑",[835,1294,829],{},"的投资部分，P\u002FE实际上已经低过20了。(2024-08-15)",[831,1297,1298,1300],{},[835,1299,829],{},"早晚会再上6000亿的。(2024-10-19)",[831,1302,1303,1304,1306],{},"拼多多还是一家初创公司，未来变数还很多。",[835,1305,829],{},"相比之下要更成熟。该说的都说过了哈。(2024-10-28)",[831,1308,1309,1311,1312,1314],{},[835,1310,829],{},"目前的股数比2016年还多，所以这些年的回购实际上全部都变成了员工股？",[835,1313,874],{},"过去10年的股数已经减少了40%左右了。",[831,1316,1317,1319,1320,1322],{},[835,1318,874],{},"在过去10年里每一年的股票都是减少的。",[835,1321,829],{},"除了2023年比2022年股数略有减少外，其他年都是增加的，而且2023年的股数居然比2016年还多。这种回购实际上就是在给员工发奖金哈。",[831,1324,1325,1326,1328],{},"网友：（有网友批评",[835,1327,829],{},"的股权激励稀释股东）",[831,1330,1331,1332,1334],{},"大道：",[835,1333,829],{},"总股数大概90亿出头，如果5年只是发了两个亿的股的期权，那叫多吗？如果你是老板，5年稀释2%多一点都不舍得，你是不是太孤寒了？（2026-05-27）",[831,1336,1337,1338,1340,1341,1344],{},"网友：大道老师您好，近期网上传言",[835,1339,829],{},"可能入股",[835,1342,1343],{},"万科","的讨论，您如何看待这个说法的可信度？或者说是否有必要在靴子落地之前对此类消息进行关注和反应？",[831,1346,1347],{},"大道：啊？！我不太相信！除非……（2025-11-20）",[831,1349,1350,1351,1353],{},"网友：大道你好，目前",[835,1352,829],{},"的估值贵吗？",[831,1355,1356,1357,1359],{},"大道：想想10年后",[835,1358,829],{},"能赚多少钱吧。（2026-02-04）",[831,1361,1362,1363,1366,1367,1369],{},"网友：（有网友称",[835,1364,1365],{},"段永平","曾减持",[835,1368,829],{},"并“退网”）",[831,1371,1372,1373,1375,1376,1378,1379,1381],{},"大道：你要再瞎解释我就拉黑了！我什么时候说过我减持",[835,1374,829],{},"了？我卖",[835,1377,829],{},"的put都被限制过了哈。",[835,1380,829],{},"是很好的公司，要惜卖。（2026-04-15）",[827,1383,1384],{"id":1384},"拼多多",[831,1386,1387],{},"“拼多多要上市了。很多人都感觉震惊。一个成立不足3年的‘初生儿’，居然就要上市了？而且是以高达300亿美元的估值上市。”(新闻)",[831,1389,1390],{},"我计划再一次买点Pre-IPO(上市前股权融资)。也许10年后人们会发现拿着望远镜也找不到对手的年代已经过去了。(2018-07-10)",[831,1392,1393],{},"网友k：近段时间，我一直在看拼多多资料和APP，在上面购了几次物，也在思考拼多多，说一点个人看法，不一定对。1、黄峥在段总的影响下，逐渐建立的本分文化，消费者导向，差异化竞争。2、持续增长的大行业（社会消费品零售业），持续增长的子行业（网络零售业）。网络购物人数也在持续增长。",[831,1395,1396],{},"3、目前的核心用户是以前很少被接触到的下沉互联网消费者（他们不认识多少品牌，也没有到靠品牌来辨识产品的时候），未曾深耕的差异化行业。4、去搜索化购物APP，机器算法推送、游戏化、乐趣化。将来对供应链的赋能。5、没有购物车、免密支付等细节做得很好，转化率很高。6、拼多多团队牛，在发展中解决问题，包括假货和次品等问题。竞争对手想打压拼多多，现在都不知道怎么出拳。",[831,1398,1399],{},"当然，罗马不是一天建成的。黄峥说过“我想建一座迪士尼，目前只有两个旋转木马”“低价是阶段性获取用户的手段之一”（目前是IPO公司上市静默期，我也少说一点比较好）",[831,1401,1402,1404],{},[835,1403,845],{}," 我还没用过拼多多但我对黄峥有很高的信任度！给他10年时间，大家会看到他们厉害的地方的。",[831,1406,1407],{},"拼多多才成立不到三年，有些毛病很正常。我觉得10年后他们会非常厉害，如果能够有10年的话。（2018-07-22）",[831,1409,1410,1411,1414],{},"网友j：我不知道拼多多的优势在哪里？打开app，噱头大过实际，为了便宜，好多东西都是貌似品牌，这点让人非常不爽。感觉app呈现的和",[835,1412,1413],{},"黄峥","说的不一样，让我很迷茫。",[831,1416,1417,1419],{},[835,1418,845],{}," 如果你真的认真看的话，总有一天你会看明白的。(2018-07-24)",[831,1421,1422,1423,1425],{},"看看",[835,1424,1413],{},"讲的东西，去想想10年后的拼多多吧。(2018-07-26)",[831,1427,1428],{},"网友：拼多多用了一段时间了，体验还不错，确实有的东西比较次，但价格真便宜，渠道上他们一定做了优化。就看你买什么东西了，确实就像黄铮说的，不要光听什么消费升级的概念，有的东西就不用升级呀，比如厨房里的用纸。总之：拼多多好不好，谁用谁知道。",[831,1430,1431,1433],{},[835,1432,845],{}," 质量的定义其实是一致性。（2018-07-27）",[831,1435,1436],{},"网友：我觉得拼多多有点像线上Costco(好市多)。",[831,1438,1439,1441],{},[835,1440,845],{}," 这确实是拼多多想做到的事情。(2018-07-28)",[831,1443,1444],{},"网友：在看了非常多的有关拼多多、黄峥的资料后，昨天买入了拼多多的股票，能和段总成为同一家公司的股东，开心。",[831,1446,1447,1449],{},[835,1448,845],{}," 我今天（7.28）也买了些拼多多。虽然我已经有不少了，而且价格便宜很多，但我还是想再多买些。我已经好些年没有买公司的欲望了，但我觉得有机会的话，我会多买些拼多多。我相信企业文化的力量！拼多多股票10年内是我是不会考虑卖的，但有机会我会继续买。（2018-07-28）",[831,1451,1452],{},"网友：拼多多动了很多竞争对手的奶酪，现在各种造谣恐吓的软文出了不少。",[831,1454,1455,1457],{},[835,1456,845],{}," 上市就是为了被监督，现在监督来了，虽然不一定是预期的形式，但长远来说，对拼多多的改进是非常有好处的。希望拼多多能以开放的心态接受哈。亡羊补牢，会有机会的。(2018-07-30)",[831,1459,1460,1461,1463],{},"网友：现在买拼多多会不会有点当年买",[835,1462,596],{},"的感觉？",[831,1465,1466,1468],{},[835,1467,845],{}," 我的说法不构成投资建议。目前拼多多受到的攻击非常猛烈，没人知道会是什么影响，虽然我不认为会对业务造成任何影响。我看到很多文章都像是有组织写的，大家对比一下那些写我的文章，基本都是拼的感觉，就明白我的意思了。",[831,1470,1471],{},"如果拼多多能渡过它的难关的话，未来拼多多这个流量，怎么着一年200-300亿(人民币)的利润似乎不应该是问题吧？至于应该以什么价买这家公司，不是我可以回答得了的。(2018-07-31)",[831,1473,1474,1475,1477,1478,1480],{},"网友：您觉得现在拼多多的股价相对于公司价值有多便宜？",[957,1476,115],{"href":959},"而言，现在的拼多多股票跟",[835,1479,874],{},"股票相比，是不是更有吸引力一些？",[831,1482,1483,1485],{},[835,1484,845],{}," 从10年的角度看，拼多多显然机会大些但风险也大些哈。绝对不构成投资建议。我认为某一天跌破发行价是很有可能的，10年后大家觉得今天这个价钱真便宜也是大概率事件。所以我在等破发了再说，哈哈。(2018-07-31)",[831,1487,1488],{},"网友：研究了一段时间，还是没搞明白拼多多和阿里、京东等传统电商比竞争优势在哪。能否指点迷津？",[831,1490,1491,1493],{},[835,1492,845],{}," 再过几年就明白了。(2018-08-03)",[831,1495,1496],{},"网友：最近对拼多多一直在关注，也下载了拼多多的App，做了些用户体验，自己有一些粗浅的看法，还望段大哥和诸位球友指正。拼多多现在主要是通过拼团+社交+营销来吸引买家，未来想做到costco+disney（好市多+迪士尼），做到C2M。那它的生意模式有多大的护城河呢？拼团现在巴巴和京东已经开始模仿，并实施了，但基于微信的社交电商，巴巴和京东应该学不了。",[831,1498,1499],{},"而未来，costco+disney，C2M，大家都可以学，但谁做得更好，就要看企业文化和企业领导人了。黄峥是段大哥的徒弟，坚守本分和以消费者为导向的经营理念。我看好。学段大哥，我对拼多多未来的股价也做了个粗略的毛估估。拼多多现在有3.44亿活跃买家，未来十年，到5亿活跃买家应该问题不大。拼多多现在年GMV是2600亿，未来十年到2万亿应该是大概事件。",[831,1501,1502],{},"如果给个2% 货币化率，那么营收是400亿。给个50% 的成本支出，那么净利润是200亿（相当从每人身上一年挣40 人民币，），约等于30亿美元。现在拼多多有11亿总股数，阿里巴巴的P\u002FE=47，亚马逊的P\u002FE=384，京东P\u002FE=271。如果我们取保守P\u002FE=20，那么拼多多未来的股价=（$30\u002F11）*20=$55。",[831,1504,1505,1507],{},[835,1506,845],{}," 你厉害，但不是学我的。我不是这么算的，这种情况我根本就不会算！目前这种情况，根本还无从算起。唯一我觉得可以做风投的理由就是，在目前这种成长情况下，我相信他们的好文化最终会有不错的概率会带来好结果。（2018-08-31）",[831,1509,1510,1511,1513],{},"网友：当年投",[835,1512,596],{},"也是风投了一把吗？",[831,1515,1516,846,1518,1520],{},[835,1517,845],{},[835,1519,596],{},"不同，我非常懂游戏，当时非常确定他们将来会赚很多钱，不知道的只是到底能赚多少。对拼多多来说，我目前的水平依然不知道他们未来能不能赚到符合目前市值的利润。3年前我投拼多多时就不知道最终他们能不能赚钱，现在看了一下数据后依然还是不知道，但显然他们的影响力已经大了非常非常多了。我现在觉得他们能做出来的机会比3年前大了许多。(2018-09-01)",[831,1522,1523,1524,1527,1528,1531],{},"这里风投的意思是：",[835,1525,1526],{},"这么一帮人，这样一种文化，这样一个","生意模式，",[835,1529,1530],{},"如果一直这么发展下去，10年后跟淘宝平分天下还是有可能的吧？如果他们做到了，股东回报自然高。风险的部分在哪里呢？我要知道就不是风投了。","(2018-09-02)",[831,1533,1534],{},"网友B：有些生意可以想象出它怎么赚钱，比如“拼多多”；有些生意很难想象出来它怎么能挣钱，比如“共享单车”。段总的“猜”，是在“懂”的前提下的“猜”。",[831,1536,1537,1539],{},[835,1538,845],{}," 我懂得不多，但知道流量经常是很值钱的。他们流量很大，而且都来源于看得见的生意，所以变现不是问题。我相信他们本分的文化会让他们找到非急功近利的办法的。（2018-09-05）",[831,1541,1542,1543,1545],{},"网友：",[835,1544,1413],{},"说拼多多是撞上了好运。",[831,1547,1548,846,1550,1552],{},[835,1549,845],{},[835,1551,1413],{},"是实在人，拼多多起来也确实有运气成分，但绝对不只是运气哈。(2018-09)",[831,1554,1555],{},"网友：黄峥的投资理念 1。像创业一样投资（Invest like an entrepreneur）投资是买公司的长期的份额。像创业一样，在找到好的生意模式的同时，你需要找到好的企业家\u002FCEO作为合伙人。你需要长期愿意……",[831,1557,1558,1561],{},[835,1559,1560],{},"段永平：最早黄峥还在Google时是有过打算想和我一起做投资的想法的。但后来他总是觉得自己没有经营过企业，老是觉得自己在某个地方差点啥，最后就坚决滴回去了。"," 当时给了我一个无懈可击的理由：美国的中餐不好吃。我当时觉得作为独子的他内心真实的理由可能是因为他其实就是个孝子，不想离爸爸妈妈太远而已。（2018-09-15）",[831,1563,1564],{},[835,1565,1566],{},"（新闻）入驻拼多多参加3年庆，品牌商家遭遇“二选一”",[831,1568,1569],{},"10月10日前后，拼多多平台3年庆主会场几乎所有品牌商家遭遇“强制二选一”新闻被商家陆续爆出，该行为导致拼多多“3周年活动”中的大批品牌商家被迫提出退出活动、下架商品，甚至要求关闭旗舰店。",[831,1571,1572,1574],{},[835,1573,845],{}," 企业成长的过程当中会有很多磨难的，这个不算什么。（2018-10-11）",[831,1576,1577,1578,840],{},"网友：每次听黄峥的访谈，都感受到他有段大哥常常提到的那种利润之上的追求，那份",[957,1579,18],{"href":1580},"\u002Fpingchangxin",[831,1582,1583,1585],{},[835,1584,845],{}," 他确实有。(2018-11-10)",[831,1587,1588,1589,1591],{},"网友：1、拼多多现在只适合以风投的眼光看；2、买进拼多多相当于押注于",[835,1590,1413],{},"的进化。",[831,1593,1594,1596],{},[835,1595,845],{}," 这确实是我目前的观点，所以一直不建议大比例投入。(2018-11-15)",[831,1598,1599],{},"《财经》：你认为作为CEO的本分是什么？",[831,1601,1602],{},"黄峥：我不是一个典型意义的CEO，我一负责给公司输入价值观和文化，以及为员工树立人生理想。二是我管那些突然冒出来以前没遇到过，也不知道分配给谁的问题。",[831,1604,1605],{},"《财经》：你的员工说你说过的话、做过的决定说一不二，你是不是觉得多数人都很蠢？自己的决策和判断要明显优于其他人。",[831,1607,1608],{},"黄峥：这和我对自己的认知是很不一样的。在我的脑子里，绝大多数人在绝大多数方面都是比我强的，我只在很少的方面比很少的人强。",[831,1610,1611,1613],{},[835,1612,845],{}," 这个像黄峥说的！（2019-02-14）",[831,1615,1616,1617,1062],{},"网友：您怎么看拼多多的",[957,1618,70],{"href":1036},[831,1620,1621,1623],{},[835,1622,845],{}," 我还没认真看过拼多多，但过年回国时体验了一下，感觉蛮好的。这么多人用可能是有道理的。(2019-03-15)",[831,1625,1626],{},"引用：经济观察网 记者 任晓宁 4月24日晚，拼多多创始人、董事长兼CEO黄峥，发布了公司上市以来的首封股东信。黄峥在信中指出，近期拼多多遇到了“二选一”。他认为，拼多多的出现初步打破了既有电商格局，自然会让其他平台有所……",[831,1628,1629,1631],{},[835,1630,845],{}," 该说的黄峥都说了！（2019-04-25）",[831,1633,1634,1637],{},[835,1635,1636],{},"开市客+迪士尼","，这个定义有点意思，也很难找到更好的定义了。(2019-04-25)",[831,1639,1640],{},"网友：大道认识黄峥超过十年了，请问：黄峥是否具备把事情做对的能力和学习能力？黄峥是否也具备品行端正，本分，不占别人便宜，专注本业和聚焦，稳健求发展（慢就是快），结果导向，消费者导向，为社会创造价值（这些在李嘉诚身上可以找到）这些你身上也具备的特征？",[831,1642,1643,1645],{},[835,1644,845],{}," 黄峥的学习能力和把事情做对的能力显然是比我强的。黄峥对什么是对的事情也有很清醒的认识。（2019-04-27）",[831,1647,1648],{},"网友：看了拼多多的财务数据，从资产来看，虽然亏了100多，但是净资产多了将近200，还是非常优秀，最近跌得比较多，准备买入，10年后看有没有机会财务自由。",[831,1650,1651,1653,1654,1656],{},[835,1652,845],{}," 我没看过财报，但看过新闻。净资产多出来的应该主要是融资产生的，但经营",[957,1655,88],{"href":1210},"确实好像是正的，说明他们还是蛮保守的。(2019-04-28)",[831,1658,1659],{},"网友：没什么问题，7年电商老兵，10年纬度，坚定看好拼多多，有闲钱就补一些，知道大道也是股东，内心更坚信了这一点。",[831,1661,1662,1664],{},[835,1663,845],{}," 我觉得你对的概率很大。(2019-05-15)",[831,1666,1667],{},"网友：能否演示下拼多多10年后是什么样？",[831,1669,1670,1672],{},[835,1671,845],{}," 如果他们能活下来的话，肯定会比现在厉害很多。我认为他们能活下来的机会很大。(2019-05-17)",[831,1674,1675,1676,1679,1680,1683,1684,1686],{},"网友：关于拼多多，大家对平台的差货、劣货、假货吐槽很多，周围很多消费者在心里面对拼多多的",[957,1677,141],{"href":1678},"\u002Fpinpai","认知就是假、差、劣，想问下师兄：你认为这样的",[957,1681,166],{"href":1682},"\u002Fpingtai","如果不补贴，还能做大？或者说是有生存的价值吗？还是仅仅只是因为喜欢",[835,1685,1413],{},"就投拼多多？谢谢。",[831,1688,1689,1691,1692,1694,1695,1698],{},[835,1690,845],{}," 我投拼多多确实是因为喜欢",[835,1693,1413],{},"，但你这么看拼多多表示你大概是个人云亦云的人，没有",[957,1696,222],{"href":1697},"\u002Flixing","看待问题的态度。我今年春节回国专门买过接近100单拼多多上的东西，你肯定没有试过。拼多多有这么多用户，绝对是有道理的。不过，我从来没推荐过大家投资拼多多，目前也不会推荐，因为我不清楚拼多多到底最后会如何，所以觉得顶多只能按风投的标准去看拼多多。(2019-05-28)",[831,1700,1701],{},"网友：哈哈，不要轻易对我下结论嘛！我就想知道下师兄对于拼多多的态度和逻辑而已。我买了几单，有些东西确实不理想。可能用拼多多的都是沉默的大多数吧。",[831,1703,1704,1706],{},[835,1705,845],{}," 我买的大多数都是农产品，大多数都还不错哈。有时候会让人觉得便宜没好货也不总是对的。（2019-05-28）",[831,1708,1709],{},"引用：原标题：从“无脑黑”到拼多多“真香”",[831,1711,1712],{},"来源：《金融投资报》个准00后大学生的网购心路转变历程“我妈在拼多多上买的攀枝花凯特芒果，出乎寻常地好吃，还有她在拼多多上给我买的8块钱坐垫，貌美又好用，还有上次...",[831,1714,1715],{},"前段时间回国时在拼多多上买了些东西，没经历不好的体验。举个例子，这次回去忘了带冲鼻子的瓶子和盐(对付过敏用的)，去商店也没找到，在拼多多和另一家电商上找到了，拼多多只要两天就到货，还稍微便宜些，就买了，东西和我原来用的是一样一样的。我还没空去自己体验过迪士尼的感觉，但Costco的感觉有了。(2019-08-23)",[831,1717,1718,1719,1722,1723,1725],{},"网友：相比于您在股票投资领域的成功，我更佩服你的识人能力。我想问下，您当年和",[835,1720,1721],{},"巴菲特","吃饭，带着26岁的",[835,1724,1413],{},"的原因是什么，或者说看中了他身上的哪个特性？",[831,1727,1728,846,1730,1732],{},[835,1729,845],{},[835,1731,1413],{},"是特别难得一见的一直关注事物本质的人，有悟性，又聪明，未来有任何成就我都不意外。(2019-09-09)",[831,1734,1542,1735,1738,1739,1742],{},[835,1736,1737],{},"京东","没有赚到钱，",[835,1740,1741],{},"亚马逊","没有赚到钱，淘宝赚到钱了，拼多多？",[831,1744,1745,1747],{},[835,1746,845],{}," 从财报看，拼多多要赚钱似乎不难，只是没必要急着赚钱而已吧？",[831,1749,1750,1751,1753],{},"网友：您说没看懂拼多多的",[957,1752,70],{"href":1036},"指的是什么？",[831,1755,1756,1758,1759,1761,1762,1764,1765,1767],{},[835,1757,845],{}," 我不懂",[957,1760,70],{"href":1036},"的意思是不知道公司未来是不是能长期有好的利润，",[957,1763,74],{"href":1135},"是什么。大多数公司的",[957,1766,70],{"href":1036},"不容易看明白，或者看上去未来很难有好的利润。(2021-05-13)",[831,1769,1770,1771,1773],{},"我说我不懂这个",[957,1772,70],{"href":1036},"不是不知道他们做的是什么样的生意，而是说我没办法看懂10年后这个公司会是什么样子。很早我就说过，我觉得拼多多赚到100-200亿人民币应该是有机会的，但未来到底会怎么样我看不懂。电商不是一个容易看懂的行业，很难知道10年后谁会是最后的赢家。",[831,1775,1776],{},"网友B：段大哥曾经预测拼多多未来每年可以挣200-300亿人民币。以拼多多的团队，企业文化，和生意模式，我相信这一目标是水到渠成的事。",[831,1778,1779,1781],{},[835,1780,845],{}," 是猜测不是预测，把握性不一样。",[831,1783,1784],{},"网友：如何理解没看懂未来10年？",[831,1786,1787,846,1789],{},[835,1788,845],{},[835,1790,1791,1792,1794],{},"两个方面：是否能赚到钱(匹配价格的利润);如果能赚到钱，是否有",[957,1793,74],{"href":1135},"。(2022-03-24)",[831,1796,1797,1798,1800],{},"我依然不是太懂拼多多的",[957,1799,70],{"href":1036},"，所以加不加仓和目前的价格没啥关系，毕竟已经有很多在手了。不过，我依然觉得给他们10年，也许大家真能看到点啥。现在距离我说“给他10年”的时间应该已经过去两三年了吧？那就再看个7到8年，看看我这个风投结果到底是什么。(2022-10-30)",[831,1802,1803,1804,1806],{},"抖音抢了很多市场，但好像对",[835,1805,596],{},"影响很小，对拼多多影响也很小。(2023-12-11)",[831,1808,1809,1810,1812],{},"开始卖点put。虽然对拼多多的",[957,1811,70],{"href":1036},"还不是完全懂，但这些年看来看去还是觉得蛮有意思的。(2024-08-27)",[831,1814,1815],{},"网友：段先生当初是怎么发现黄峥的，怎么判断一个人能成气候？",[831,1817,1818,1820,1821,1824],{},[835,1819,845],{}," 我不知道如何判断一个人能否“成气候”，没有成气候的充分条件。黄峥是",[835,1822,1823],{},"丁磊","介绍给我的。我很喜欢跟黄峥聊天，他的逻辑性非常强，非常关注事物的本质，而且学习能力也非常强。我当时确实觉得他最后能做出什么成就来我都不意外。(2024-10-09)",[831,1826,1542,1827,1830],{},[835,1828,1829],{},"OPPO","的深圳总部大楼超漂亮，拼多多这么多钱也要在上海建个有艺术性的大楼。",[831,1832,1833,1835],{},[835,1834,845],{}," 我觉得他们都对！（2025-07-18）",[831,1837,1838],{},"网友：拼多多的报表令人震惊，我没见过这么干净的报表，总资产有5300亿，固定资产只有8亿，办公楼是租的，办公桌也是租的，服务器也是租的……员工电脑应该是自有的吧！经营性应收预付100亿左右，一个20亿左右LP的投资，其他都基本可以算是现金……",[831,1840,1841,1843],{},[835,1842,845],{}," 租办公楼这点让我惊讶！租办公室绝对省老钱了，尤其是现在！",[831,1845,1846,1847,1849],{},"网友：您认为Costco有",[957,1848,74],{"href":1135},"吗？如果有的话，拼多多是否同理？",[831,1851,1852,1854,1855,1858],{},[835,1853,845],{}," “They're still a god-damn retailer.”",[835,1856,1857],{},"芒格","讲的哈。",[831,1860,1861],{},"网友：大道要是考察拼多多，一个电话就可以让黄铮过来面聊唠嗑了，重新看看文字版是温故而知新吗？还是多方对比一下黄铮团队知行合一？",[831,1863,1864],{},"大道：我从来没跟黄峥聊过拼多多，所以一直搞不太懂。AI真是厉害，居然可以这么看视频，省了好多时间，一下子就能大致明白。（2025-12-04）",[831,1866,1867,1868,1870],{},"网友：大道觉得拼多多上1399的",[835,1869,1217],{},"，可信度有多少？",[831,1872,1873,1874,1876],{},"大道：那么大的量，怎么可能是假的？！如果是假的，",[835,1875,1217],{},"早就冲过去了！我看不懂为什么能卖这个价钱，估计是他们补贴的吧，就当广告费了？（2025-12-04）",[831,1878,1879],{},"网友：拼多多 十年真的好快，我记得那会拼多多账上现金只有16亿，10年过去了，账上现金4500亿，赚钱能力也变成了快1000亿一年",[831,1881,1882],{},"大道：他们比我最初想象的要厉害很多。（2026-08-25）",[831,1884,1885],{},"网友（问题节录）：我在美国使用 Temu，抽奖促销很花时间，最后也没有拿到优惠，因此转到 Amazon 购买。我考虑投资拼多多，所以一直尝试购买 Temu 商品；质量比以前好了，但价格也涨了。这样的促销方式让我觉得不诚信，希望阿段能答疑解惑。",[831,1887,1888],{},"大道：我也用TEMU，但都是直接买东西，从来没去点过那些折扣的东西，确实便宜很多的。我的阅读眼镜都是在上面买的，一次买了几十个，才几块钱一个，东西和Walgreens的一样，价钱只有1\u002F3. 我有些健身用的小工具也是在上面买的。TEMU的邮寄速度好像很慢，但amazon承诺的时间也是经常不准的。（2026-09-27）",[831,1890,1891],{},"网友：@不明真相的群众  方丈，段叔，我在重温您26年方略访谈，\n方丈问:上面提到您人生中投资20个孔，\n您说:拼多多可以算，是因为风投，但是不是自己看懂了，拼多多严格意义上来说也不算\n随着您26年的加大仓位，是因为看懂了拼多多，还是由于一些其他原因?",[831,1893,1894],{},"大道：其实就是因为实在是太便宜了，现金流摆在那里的啊！（2026-09-28）",[827,1896,1897],{"id":1897},"谷歌",[831,1899,1900],{},"网友：段大哥的Google我实在是看不懂，我菜鸟吧。YAHOO、百度、Google都难以估值。我找遍了《评估原理》也找不到一种标尺。",[831,1902,1903],{},"我谈谈我的看法（错了别骂）：搜索引擎是核心之一，网民的偏好、CEO的水平决定了它们的价值的大部。这3点变化太快了。",[831,1905,1906],{},"谁敢说自己的引擎领先100年，网民要的是便利快捷，其他无所谓（看看360的例子）。CEO的年龄会不断的和年轻人有代沟。给网站估值太难了，能估出来的可能还没出生。个人观点，乱说的（别骂）。",[831,1908,1909,1911],{},[835,1910,845],{}," 你讲的很有道理。我喜欢阿里巴巴和Google主要是觉得他们的文化很好。好的文化在变化快的世界里往往会有优势。",[831,1913,1914],{},"另外，我Google很少，试试水。（2010-05-16）",[831,1916,1917,1918,1920,1921,1923],{},"引用：“",[835,1919,1897],{},"关闭10项边缘业务，覆盖社交搜索、桌面软件和网页安全等多个领域。自从今年1月",[835,1922,1897],{},"联合创始人拉里·佩奇……”",[831,1925,1926,1928],{},[835,1927,845],{}," 看来拉里·佩奇像个不错的CEO。(2011-09-03)",[831,1930,1931],{},"拉里·佩奇上台后马上就砍掉了不少没用的产品，果然厉害！(2011-10-23)",[831,1933,1934,1935,1938,1939,1941],{},"网友：段总怎么看",[835,1936,1937],{},"GOOGLE","(谷歌)呢？你说看不懂那个自动驾驶汽车。google这两天发布好多新东东。1、那个眼镜也有点怪怪的，有点偏；2、google Nexus Q有点意思哦；3、Nexus 7不错，可惜没有后置摄像头，kindle fire麻烦了；4、安卓4.1也在进步，系统一直在完善啊，假以时日，能逼近IOS(",[835,1940,874],{},"系统)么？",[831,1943,1944,1946,1947,1949,1950,1952,1953,1955],{},[835,1945,845],{}," 我一直喜欢google，觉得google是好公司，但只是明白其部分的生意模式而已。所以前段时间把手里的一部分google换成",[835,1948,874],{},"了，当时差90几块哈。也许哪天我还会换回来，看谁涨（或掉哈）得快了。至于会不会逼近IOS的问题，作为",[835,1951,874],{},"的用户，我其实根本就不知道也不关心，除非哪天我自己觉得",[835,1954,874],{},"的用户体验不好了。",[831,1957,1958,1959,1059,1961,1964,1965,1967],{},"一旦进入",[835,1960,874],{},[957,1962,171],{"href":1963},"\u002Fshengtaixitong","的用户实际上不太关心安卓的变化，所以我其实一直不认为安卓是在和",[835,1966,874],{},"竞争。(2012-06-28)",[831,1969,971,1970,1973,1974,1977,1978,1980,1981,1983,1984,1986],{},[835,1971,1972],{},"伯克希尔","建仓",[835,1975,1976],{},"Google","，是",[835,1979,1721],{},"看懂了呢，还是",[835,1982,1972],{},"接班人的操作呢，建仓",[835,1985,1976],{},"证明在AI龙头并没存在泡沫吗？感谢您的解答。",[831,1988,1331,1989,985,1991,1993,1994,1996,1997,1999,2000,2002,2003,2005,2006,2008],{},[835,1990,1721],{},[835,1992,1976],{},"了？你先搞明白Brk的结构再说吧？我猜",[835,1995,1976],{},"不是老巴自己买的。不过，老巴确实是对",[835,1998,1976],{},"很感兴趣的，三年前我跟一个曾经在",[835,2001,1976],{},"工作过的朋友去见老巴，老巴问了很多关于",[835,2004,1976],{},"的问题。我之前说过，",[835,2007,1721],{},"对所谓科技股的理解是远超很多以为自己很懂高科技的股民的。",[831,2010,2011],{},"（2025-11-22）",[831,2013,2014,2015,2017,2018,2020],{},"网友：看着",[835,2016,1897],{},"不久后要越过ChatGPT了，",[957,2019,171],{"href":1963},"的盈利模式将远超任何一家人工智能公司了，非常厉害。",[831,2022,2023,2024,2026],{},"大道：之前我说过，过些年，做大模型的可能没几个能活下来的，但",[835,2025,1976],{},"大概率可以。（2025-11-25）",[831,2028,2029,2030,2032],{},"网友：大道您好，从您的利润之上的东西这一观点，针对",[835,2031,1897],{},"从“不作恶”到做正确的事”这种价值观的改变。您有什么看法？",[831,2034,2035],{},"大道：不作恶是什么意思？你连这个都没想过？（2026-02-04）",[831,2037,2038],{},"网友：95岁的巴菲特最近又接受了一次专访：他说市场太投机了，到处都是赌徒；买谷歌是他自己拍板的，不是接班人阿贝尔，而且承认买晚了；苹果还是最大持仓，但他说“至少有四五家我们持有的公司，在我心中的优先级都高于苹果”。",[831,2040,2041],{},"大道：巴菲特在Google上纠结了很久，几年前我带一个曾经在Google工作过的朋友去看他，巴菲特还抓着我朋友问了很多Google的问题。所以他最终出手Google对我来说也没那么意外。（2026-07-19）",[831,2043,2044],{},"网友：阿段怎么看？这老巴也没想到吧。\n据说， DeepMind创始人Hassabis 也考虑离开谷歌，因谷歌管理层担忧股价暴跌暂缓离职。\n谷歌C",[831,2046,2047],{},"大道：我也没想到，感觉上是Google文化有点问题了，留不住大神。（2026-08-09）",[827,2049,2051],{"id":2050},"脸书facebook","脸书（Facebook）",[831,2053,2054,2055,2057,2058,2060],{},"网友：脸书的",[957,2056,70],{"href":1036},"，我个人理解是在链接人的同时，通过用户数据分析了解人，并据此通过广告等形式商业化。如果个人数据的运用权更多地交给用户选择，那么基于信息流推送的",[957,2059,70],{"href":1036},"是否还可以成立？",[831,2062,2063,846,2065],{},[835,2064,845],{},[835,2066,2067],{},"个人认为脸书(FB)还是一样厉害。用户没有别的选择。(2018-05-01)",[831,2069,2070],{},"网友：您怎么看FB(脸书)，高管的不断离职会不会对公司产生致命打击？现价可以买入做长期投资吗？",[831,2072,2073,2075],{},[835,2074,1365],{}," ：我不推荐人买股票，我觉得如果你需要问人该不该买的时候那就还没到你能买的时候。我个人觉得FB也是家不错的公司，生意模式和文化都不错，扎克伯格年轻有为，还能好好干很多年。公司有人离职很正常。(2019-03-20)",[831,2077,2078],{},"网友：您投资FB，应该是大概率觉得它未来5-10年净利润达到500亿美金左右，请问能分享下这其中的逻辑吗？",[831,2080,2081,2083],{},[835,2082,1365],{}," ：大概就是觉得生意模式很好，企业文化也很好，扎克伯克还那么年轻，所以这个公司还会有不错的成长空间。（2019-03-23）",[831,2085,2086,2087,2090],{},"网友：您常说",[957,2088,12],{"href":2089},"\u002Fbenfen","的重要性，FB近几个月频繁爆出隐私泄露的问题，您怎么看？",[831,2092,2093,846,2095],{},[835,2094,845],{},[835,2096,2097],{},"FB原来的使命是“连接世界”，但没有注意隐私。现在使命不变，但注重隐私已经是前提了。好公司犯错误时往往是买入的机会。(2019-03-28)",[831,2099,2100],{},"隐私是头等事，扩张是正经事。(2019-05-01)",[831,2102,2103],{},"脸书准备卖掉了，有些不舒服的东西。(2020-07-31)",[831,2105,2106],{},"今天清空了FB，算是赚了不少。由于自己不用FB的任何产品，所以对FB的理解一直没达到很透彻的地步。最近一段时间，抖音就把它吓成这个样子，说明它可能还是有弱点的。我的卖出也符合“对自己不够了解的公司，涨了也想卖跌了也想卖”的情况。(2020-08-04)",[831,2108,2109],{},"网友：为什么处理掉呢？",[831,2111,2112,2114],{},[835,2113,845],{}," 为什么？就是觉得不太喜欢了呗。看到扎克伯格在国会作证时说的话后，我就“粉转路”了。(2022-02-03)",[831,2116,2117,2118,2120,2121,2123],{},"网友：我查到了这一段，时间也跟大道表态准备卖掉FB的时间相吻合-“到了2020年扎克伯格的假面具摔得更彻底，七月时扎克伯格在美国国会举行听证会向中国企业‘泼脏水’，声称‘中国从美国科技公司’窃取技术‘证据确凿’。而对于这一问题，",[835,2119,874],{},"总裁、",[835,2122,1897],{},"总裁、亚马逊总裁的回答均为‘没有发生过此类事件’。”",[831,2125,2126,2128],{},[835,2127,845],{}," 就是这个事情后就决定卖了。(2022-02-10)",[831,2130,2131,2132,2134],{},"FB真的是我糊里糊涂买、糊里糊涂赚，但很清楚卖掉的公司之一吧。我还记得当时看到“小扎”在国会质询回答问题时，我突然感觉到FB的",[957,2133,74],{"href":1135},"其实很浅，面对抖音他们完全没有招架能力，连阴招都上了。看完第二天就基本清仓了，只有几万股是留到年底卖掉的。话说回来，FB本来买得也不太多，所有管的账号大概能有2%，卖光了也没啥不开心的。",[831,2136,2137],{},"(2022-10-09)",[831,2139,2140,2141,2143],{},"网友：为什么大道认为看不太懂FB的",[957,2142,70],{"href":1036},"呢？",[831,2145,2146,2148],{},[835,2147,845],{}," 看不懂需要理由吗？我还以为看懂才需要理由呢。我个人完全不用FB以及FB的任何产品。",[831,2150,2151,2152,2154],{},"网友：因为",[957,2153,135],{"href":1040},"不好？",[831,2156,2157,846,2159],{},[835,2158,845],{},[835,2160,2161,2162,840],{},"是的，我有点不太喜欢他们的",[957,2163,135],{"href":1040},[827,2165,2166],{"id":2166},"搜狐",[831,2168,2169],{},"网友：3月8日49元进的搜狐（SOHU），认为18亿多的市值被低估了。这两个月来的行情好几次都突破55元，都有超过10%的获利，以往的习惯会选择落袋为安，这两个月为了践行“价值投资”，认为SOHU的合理估值在25亿-28亿美元美元左右，坚持持有（愿意持有多年）。目前股价已经低于我的成本了，我是否错过了之前的获利卖出机会呢？想听听过来人帮我分析分析。",[831,2171,2172],{},"巴克星：搜狐的最大看点是搜狗和分拆，我认为搜狐的确是被低估了。但是什么时候它的价值体现就说不好了，我觉得你应该借鉴大道无形我有型在雅虎上的处理。",[831,2174,2175,2177],{},[835,2176,845],{}," 对我而言，感觉上搜狐的最大不确定性在其对视频的不断的大力投入。视频是个差异化很小的产品，一堆有钱的公司拼在一起，结局恐怕不太好。（2012-05-04）",[822,2179,2181],{"id":2180},"第二节-科技与新产业","第二节 科技与新产业",[827,2183,2185],{"id":2184},"ai与大模型","AI与大模型",[831,2187,2188],{},"网友：能不能谈谈这波AI热潮能持续到什么时候？会不会出现2000年那种情况，什么条件下会发生大幅回撤？",[831,2190,2191,2193],{},[835,2192,845],{}," AI是个不可回避的话题！简单讲，AI其实“没啥特别”的，AI就是我们原来说的计算机应用。但是，AI是在算力大大大幅度提高后了的产物，哲学意义上就是“量变产生质变”了！我不知道AI最后会带来什么样的变化，但大概率会比互联网带来的变化还要大，也大概率比工业革命带来的变化大。我还在想这些变化落到实处到底会是什么！",[831,2195,2196,2197,2199],{},"很多地方效率显然是大幅度提高了，但那到底意味着什么呢？哪些企业会得益，哪些企业会遇到麻烦？我觉得每个",[957,2198,222],{"href":1697},"的人都不应该忽略AI，要认真看待AI，至少要从学会使用元宝开始吧。（2025-07-16）",[831,2201,2202],{},"现在市场上的大模型很多，10年后能活下来的大概率不会超过10%，所以这是个九死一生的游戏（这是我猜的）。",[831,2204,2205,2206,2208],{},"大家可以猜猜10年后大家还在用的主流大模型会是什么？我会猜Gemini，因为背后的",[835,2207,1976],{},"很强大，而且已经醒了。（2025-09-12）",[831,2210,2211],{},"AI很有意思！很多问题需要时可以问下AI，除了买什么股票能赚钱这类问题外。（2025-07-16）",[831,2213,2214],{},"网友：大道，您怎么看目前热议的人工智能泡沫？您觉得目前是不是已经存在很高的泡沫了？",[831,2216,2217,2219,2220,2222],{},[835,2218,845],{}," 你的泡沫的定义是什么？nvda是泡沫还是ChatGPT是泡沫？现在跟AI粘上一点关系的东西都乱涨一气，这些公司很可能90%最后都会完蛋的。但是，那些没完蛋的很可能就是下一个",[835,2221,1976],{},"，amazon……。AI在改变世界是不争的事实，对吧？！that’s a fact!（2025-10-18）",[831,2224,2225,2226,2228],{},"网友：大道老师，您怎么看",[835,2227,1972],{},"这两年持有这么多现金？",[831,2230,2231,2232,2234],{},"大道：从AI的回答看，似乎泡沫也不是很大。我不知道",[835,2233,1721],{},"为什么会囤那么多现金。",[831,2236,2237],{},"也许这个是原因？（2025-11-02）",[831,2239,2240],{},"买股票就是买公司。如果把美国当成一家公司，你需要用整个市值去把美股买下来，那参考这个就很有用。这种东西对个股并没有意义，因为好的公司是可以比整体成长快很多的。所以，如果Gemini的这个回答是属实的，那S&P500可能确实有点偏高了。如果美国经济能在Ai带领下大幅度提高GDP的成长，那偏高一点也不是没有道理。我觉得等两年就可以知道Ai到底能带来什么了。",[831,2242,2243],{},"（2025-11-03）",[831,2245,2246],{},"网友：请问大道是否看好OpenAI或Anthropic这类公司的未来呢？",[831,2248,2249],{},"大道：我现在主要就用Gemini了，有时用一下perplexity。现在Gemini 3很好用，不太需要别的了。大模型的竞争其实是非常厉害的，大部分大模型应该抗不了几年。（2025-12-05）",[831,2251,2252],{},"网友：AI未来可能赢家通吃，但是赢家是哪个，我一直看不明白，请问大道心理有答案么？",[831,2254,2255],{},"大道：ai的受益者可能很多，以后不会用ai的人们和企业可能会有大麻烦。用得好的大赚，用的过得去的也会是赚的。某些行业赢家通吃确实有可能，看不出来就先努力看着，顺便卖点put赚点小钱。（2026-08-17）",[831,2257,2258],{},"网友：早晨资本市场被《后西游记》直接给干沸腾了，很多散户还没搞明白这到底是个啥，就看见一堆股票齐刷刷往上涨。\n说实在的，这玩意儿可不是普通网剧，国内第一部完完全全AI生成、直接上湖南卫视黄金档的长剧，没有真人演员，边做、边审、边播，这是政策放开之后第一个落地的样板项目。以前AI做视...",[831,2260,2261],{},"大道：也许ai版的复仇者联盟也会出来的，电影界可能真要变天了。（2026-08-31）",[831,2263,2264],{},"网友：《反正也没时间活》抖音AI短片，上亿播放量了，推荐大道有时间可以看看，AI在短剧方面机会很大。",[831,2266,2267],{},"大道：哈，我有时间，但不卖。这个片子和ai没太大关系啊，虽然确实是ai做的。（2026-09-01）",[827,2269,2270],{"id":2270},"英伟达",[831,2272,2273],{},"网友：英伟达在AI行业处于上游，感觉很难做出差异。",[831,2275,2276,2278,2279,2282,2283,2285],{},[835,2277,845],{}," 英伟达(NVDA)非常厉害，产品其实有很大的",[957,2280,146],{"href":2281},"\u002Fchayihua","，堪称芯片界的",[835,2284,874],{},"!英伟达涨成这个样子是有道理的，继续涨也非常有可能。这也是不能空一个好公司的一个例子。(2024-03-10)",[831,2287,2288],{},"网友：时间长了，别家会不会也能抄出功能效果一样的芯片呢？",[831,2290,2291,2293],{},[835,2292,845],{}," 目前看，一时半会儿好像很难。可能需要10年？",[831,2295,2296],{},"科技公司非常难看懂。",[831,2298,2299],{},"我看不懂，也没时间看，就只能错过了。(2024-03-11)",[831,2301,2302],{},"我还真跟老黄吃过饭，但那是十来年前的事情了。当时参加了一个朋友的饭局，老黄就坐在我旁边。不记得当时都说过啥了，但感觉这个人蛮有点意思的。(2024-03-12)",[831,2304,2305],{},"简单讲，我对老黄没有任何负面的印象，觉得这是一个很真诚的人，似乎浑身充满了能量。可惜他中文似乎说得不多，当时的场合也是英文为主，所以我们的交流不是很多。不然当时买他1%就好了，哈哈。(此处注明一下：这是幽默。)",[831,2307,2308,2309,2312],{},"科技公司很难看懂的原因是他们的产品不是消费品，我没办法直接感受他们的产品。英伟达是一个，",[835,2310,2311],{},"微软","也是一个……我在打高尔夫的过程当中错失了不少这类公司了，我在乎吗？我一个满仓主义者，其实我啥都没错过，对吧？",[831,2314,2315],{},"网友：其实感受英伟达的产品不难，自己买一台DXGStation训练几个模型就行。",[831,2317,2318,2320,2321,2323],{},[835,2319,845],{}," 买",[835,2322,874],{},"也不难啊，你试试？(2024-03-13)",[831,2325,2326],{},"看懂一家公司确实很难。以前没看懂，现在再看也还是没懂。搞不清楚这家公司10年后会是更好还是不如现在。",[831,2328,2329,2332],{},[835,2330,2331],{},"苹果我可以肯定10年后大概率还是这么厉害。其实在这里我想表达的是：我对英伟达感兴趣。英伟达确实厉害的，而且目前似乎看不到谁能对英伟达有威胁。目前我没能明白的东西是：他们的这种垄断到底能持续多久？对英伟达芯片的需求到底能持续多久","？如果整不明白就很难下重手。下不了重手说啥都没啥意义。(2024-04-20)",[831,2334,2335,2336,2338],{},"英伟达很难看懂的并不是短期的增长，而是长期的",[957,2337,74],{"href":1135},"到底是什么。10年后的英伟达肯定还在，但还是目前的市场地位吗？(2025-02-24)",[831,2340,2341],{},"网友：是会有更强的竞争对手比如AMD，国产GPU?还是说以后核显越来越强，私人家用足以分走一部分独显市场？还是说DS(DeepSeek)出现，显卡算力市场并不需要那么大？",[831,2343,2344,2346],{},[835,2345,845],{}," 我没啥可解释的。我说的是我看不懂。未来算力的需求肯定是会继续增长的，算力的供应包括DS这种效率提高也大概率是会继续增长的。英伟达目前的毛利率巨高，因为各大厂都不敢不买算力。同时，各有钱的大厂肯定是不甘心一直这么高的价钱去买算力的。",[831,2348,2349,2350,2352,2353,2356],{},"这么多有钱的企业搞个三五年难道还不能搞出点名堂来？总感觉英伟达的",[957,2351,74],{"href":1135},"不是那么牢不可破，但这确实不是我",[957,2354,33],{"href":2355},"\u002Fnengliquan","内的东西。(2025-02-25)",[831,2358,2359,2360,2362,2363,2365],{},"我知道目前英伟达的",[957,2361,74],{"href":1135},"是CUDA，也知道CUDA的生态有点像",[835,2364,874],{},"。我也早就看到黄仁勋说的目前别的芯片白给都比英伟达提供的方案贵，也看到他说的10年后算力会是百万倍的增长。",[831,2367,2368],{},"但10年后就不能有别的替代方案吗？特别说明一下，我在这里不是表示质疑英伟达，而是表示对英伟达有兴趣，想努力看看能不能看懂英伟达，到底是不是可以成为我的投资标的。我其实跟很多业内人士聊过，甚至当面还听苏姐说过几句，但到目前为止依然一头雾水。看不懂10年真的很难下手。",[831,2370,2371],{},"网友：“英伟达之所以成功，并非因为它的电路更出众，而是因为它的软件更优秀。”",[831,2373,2374,2376,2377,2379,2380,2382],{},[835,2375,845],{}," 这句话我看到过，也知道CUDA有点像",[835,2378,874],{},"的生态圈，但就是没办法理解这个",[957,2381,74],{"href":1135},"到底有多宽。大家说的都是眼前的事情，这也是英伟达芯片能够卖得这么贵的原因。另外，英伟达的自动驾驶的芯片似乎也很厉害，而且进步也很快。不管如何，我卖了点put，开始保持近距离关注，对别人没有任何指导意义。",[831,2384,2385],{},"AI是非常值得关注的现象，最后未必一定要老“听”在英伟达上。(2025-02-28)",[831,2387,2388,2389,2391,2392,2394,2395,2397],{},"如果",[957,2390,74],{"href":1135},"够宽的话，",[957,2393,70],{"href":1036},"不错。他们的",[957,2396,135],{"href":1040},"也不错，可以放点短期put，年化premium比较好。看懂确实不容易，但关注一下是需要的。",[831,2399,1542,2400,2402,2403,1037,2405,1059,2407,2409],{},[835,2401,874],{},"价格有掉下来，估计大道还是会选择",[835,2404,874],{},[835,2406,874],{},[957,2408,74],{"href":1135},"比英伟达宽吧？",[831,2411,2412,846,2414,2416,2417,2419],{},[835,2413,845],{},[835,2415,874],{},"价钱好我当然会选择",[835,2418,874],{},"，毕竟我更理解。(2025-03-04)",[831,2421,2422],{},"网友：在这波 AI 浪潮下，现在的英伟达是不是还是一个好的投资标的呢？",[831,2424,2425,2427],{},[835,2426,845],{}," 我确实多少投了点nvda……（2025-10-06）",[831,2429,2430,2431,2433],{},"网友：段总减了4成英伟达和",[835,2432,874],{},"部分买老巴股加5成，就是减仓了，老巴股算现金呀。大道：你说啥？！我不觉得nvda是泡沫，我会一直卖put的。我很开心那些大空头成了我的客户，我会很乐意收他们的保费的。我确实说过我要在Brk里面躲一会儿牛市，现在似乎可以出来了哈。（2025-11-22）",[831,2435,2436,2437,1044,2439,2441,2442,2444,2445,2447],{},"网友：段总，最近读您过去对",[835,2438,874],{},[835,2440,829],{},"的分析，强调",[957,2443,74],{"href":1135},"与未来",[957,2446,88],{"href":1210},"的可预测性。对于英伟达，市场现在把它视为AI时代“卖铲子的垄断者”，但您曾提过“火到烫手的地方要小心”。",[831,2449,2450,2451,2453,2456,2457,2459],{},"如果从10年后的",[957,2452,88],{"href":1210},[957,2454,97],{"href":2455},"\u002Fzhexian","视角看，您会如何评估它的",[957,2458,74],{"href":1135},"深度？",[831,2461,2462],{},"比如：1. 其硬件迭代速度和生态依赖（如CUDA）是否可能像当年的英特尔或思科一样，面临技术颠覆或客户自研风险？2. 在估值已反映极大乐观预期的状态下，您会用什么“简单标准”判断它是否属于“能懂”的生意？还是说这类高变化行业本质上不符合“持有等于拥有公司”的前提？",[831,2464,2465],{},"大道：NVDA供不应求的情况应该还会持续一段时间，看上去几年内似乎还没有真的替代品。但在所有巨头的冲击下，会不会被人突破可不好说。当然，TPU这种隐性替代已经开始了，只是威胁不大而已。AI能带来的变化真的可能非常大，现在也许只是刚刚开始而已。（2025-12-05）",[831,2467,2468],{},"网友：英伟达开始赊账卖芯片了，先把芯片赊给小公司，小公司靠收入还芯片钱，大道怎么看？",[831,2470,2471,2472,2474],{},"大道（转AI回答）：严格来说，英伟达并不是在简单地“给客户记账、赊销芯片”，而是推出了一种更复杂的“收入分成+信用支持”的新型",[957,2473,70],{"href":1036},"。2026年7月初，英伟达CFO正式官宣了这一机制，甚至被一些业内人士戏称为英伟达变身成了“AI中央银行”。",[831,2476,2477],{},"它的核心逻辑：一是信用支持，英伟达为中小型云服务商提供信用背书，协助它们通过金融机构获得贷款或融资来购买芯片；二是收入分成，芯片卖过去之后，当这些云服务商把GPU算力租给下游AI企业时，英伟达要从中再抽取一定比例的“流水分成”。",[831,2479,2480],{},"乐观派认为这是在巨头扫货高峰过后为长尾市场造血，把更多客户锁定在CUDA生态里，顺便赚取长期的持续性收入；悲观派则将其与当年思科的买方信贷对比——如果AI泡沫降温、下游初创公司大量倒闭，英伟达将同时承受硬件销售下滑和信用减值的双重风险。——Gemini（2026-07-08）",[831,2482,2483],{},"网友：CUDA被破，大道会继续持有英伟达吗？",[831,2485,2486],{},"大道：那其实是个比较局部的事情。我本来也没打算增加，目前也不会打算减少。（2026-07-23）",[827,2488,2489],{"id":2489},"存储与半导体",[831,2491,2492],{},"网友：请问大道如何看待近期存储紧张的问题，这会是AI时代的常态么？现在由于存储供应链像sndk，mu这些公司的target price都大幅度提高了，您认为这是内在价值提升的体现么？谢谢",[831,2494,2495],{},"大道：说明AI确实起来的太快了，估计至少两到三年内还会是这样子，如果AI的成长速度依然如此的话，可能时间会更长，但不会一直如此的。一旦产量能超过销量，价格会马上下来的。（2025-02-09）",[831,2497,2498],{},"网友：请教大道，您是如何判断消费电子存储缓解快慢的。感谢",[831,2500,2501],{},"大道：电子产品的存储一般主要是指Flash memory和Dram（统称标准内存），而ai用的HBM则是DRAM的叠加。HBM目前世界上只有三家能做，而电子消费品的标准内存还有其他人可以做。这次标准内存短缺大概就是因为做HBM这三家的产能被HBM占有了。我的大致理解就是这样，你应该可以问ai的。（2026-07-24）",[831,2503,2504],{},"网友：段哥，您是否看到了存储的长期主要使用者从传统消费电子产品逐渐过渡到AI产业链？毕竟假如存储是个周期性很强（即AI对其占用不会长期可持续）的生意，您应该不会选择介入。",[831,2506,2507],{},"大道：看上去存储紧缺的问题短期内不容易缓解，先收点保费了解着。HBM看上去是有差异化的，而且进入门槛不低。我目前就是先卖点put逼自己多关注一下。其实去年我就已经卖了一些MU的put，但涨的太快了，所以过期后就没再卖了。上个礼拜苹果被call走了一些，这个价位又不想买回来，所以手里有钱是会有压力的。另外，消费电子的存储问题缓解的时间可能会短很多。（2026-07-24）",[831,2509,2510],{},"网友：段总，存储类高毛利不可能长期维持啊",[831,2512,2513],{},"大道：如果供给缓解了价格肯定是要下来的，但可能需要两三年，也可能甚至三五年都缓解不了。（2026-07-26）",[831,2515,2516],{},"大道：存储不可能一直这样，但2-3年这样是非常有可能的。现在需求的需求远大于供应的能力，两三年之内似乎缓解不了。（2026-08-08）",[827,2518,2519],{"id":2519},"特斯拉与马斯克",[831,2521,2522,2524],{},[835,2523,1857],{},"对马斯克的评价非常中肯，他说马斯克是个被证明了( certificated )的天才，他的智商可能有190，但他自己以为自己是250。现在看来他干的事情有时候真是250啊。马斯克的天赋有时候可以让他做一个不错的报时人，但他太享受报时了。(2018-09-28)",[831,2526,2527],{},"网友：特斯拉现在如何？",[831,2529,2530,2532],{},[835,2531,845],{}," 电动车的同质化太严重，激烈的价格战是无法避免的。如果说他是做AI的，那还真不如就投资英伟达呢，反正都是赌他们的未来。关键是，我不想是赌才有的今天。(2024-04-21)",[831,2534,2535],{},"网友：《马斯克传》那本书里，他身边的几乎所有工作人员都说他的缺点，说跟他无法相处……",[831,2537,2538,2540],{},[835,2539,845],{}," 我也认识几个曾经在他身边工作过的人，私底下大家会非常含蓄地说点啥。(2024-10-14)",[831,2542,2543],{},"网友：对于musk的人品，大道有新看法吗？",[831,2545,2546],{},"大道：他是个有意思的人，我没啥新看法。（2025-11-15）",[831,2548,2549],{},"网友：我是真的相信特斯拉的智驾即使现在还比人类驾驶差一些，但每天都在进步，达到人类的水平也指日可待。不会疲劳走神就可以避免很多不必要的事故了。",[831,2551,2552],{},"大道：我同意马斯克关于自动驾驶会更安全的观点，因为那是个统计的观点，说的是概率。（2025-11-16）",[831,2554,2555],{},"网友：大道，刚看完您在雪球的直播采访。您说不怎么喜欢马斯克的品行，给钱也不想和他做朋友，可以具体说说为什么吗？还有您说买了特斯拉之后他们的服务您有好多没那么满意的东西，也可以展开说说吗？",[831,2557,2558],{},"大道：好吧，最近终于再多花了点时间看了很多马斯克的东西。面对他的那么多厉害的产品我上个礼拜和这个礼拜已经开始投点在特斯拉上了，满意了吧？最近几年确实感受到马斯克的厉害，而且他的第一性原理我是很好理解的。不做朋友但还是可以投资的嘛，反正他也不打球。就当风投吧，我觉得10年后回头看，这个投资也许是对的。（2025-11-20）",[831,2560,2561],{},"网友：大道，开始尝试汽车行业了，接受新的产业也好，上星期我还问大道为什么错过新能源产业。",[831,2563,2564],{},"大道：我对汽车行业还没有兴趣，但马斯克的产品不是那个意思。（2025-11-20）",[831,2566,2567],{},"网友：这个是认真的，还是开玩笑啊？你们这都分不清吗？",[831,2569,2570],{},"大道：嗯，不是玩笑，是认真的。（2025-11-20）",[831,2572,2573],{},"网友：认真归认真，可能总投入也就一点点，你别当真就行。",[831,2575,2576],{},"大道：大概10000个contracts而已。It's possible just a beginning.（2025-11-20）",[831,2578,2579],{},"网友：大道买特斯拉，和我是同是智能电车投资者了。",[831,2581,2582],{},"大道：你误会了。（2025-11-20）",[831,2584,2585],{},"网友：段总，直接购买的股票吗？我刚看了下，卖put的收益也很好啊。以2026-9-18、行权价400的期权为例，权利金72.7，这段时间的收益率22%，年化收益率27%。这还没有计算备付金购买国债的收益。",[831,2587,2588],{},"大道：我卖put了，我很可能会一直卖，除非我又又又改变想法了。目前以卖短期的put为主，因为年化比较高（我觉得也许不至于就一飞冲天了吧）。我卖put的时候最重要的就是想一点：这个价钱卖给我10年后回头看是个便宜的价钱吗？如果答案是不便宜，那这个put就不可以卖。（2025-11-20）",[831,2590,2591,2592,2595,2596,2598],{},"网友：大道，目前我认为马斯克是一位厉害的“报时人”，但不确定是否是一位厉害的“",[957,2593,181],{"href":2594},"\u002Fzaozhongren","”。大道现在开始投资特斯拉是看到马斯克也是一位“",[957,2597,181],{"href":2594},"”吗？",[831,2600,2601],{},"大道：马斯克很可能不是人，厉害的地方确实厉害。（2025-11-24）",[831,2603,2604],{},"网友：电动车，可回收火箭，星链，脑际接口，XAI，自动驾驶，人形机器人……他都在创造一个个非凡奇迹，从未有任何一个伟大人物在如此众多的创新领域创造出如此惊人的成就。——罗恩巴伦",[831,2606,2607],{},"大道：是啊，他真的可能就是个机器人或者外星人。（2025-11-25）",[831,2609,2610,2611,2613],{},"网友：马斯克曾经处于破产边缘，相反",[835,2612,1721],{},"从未有过危险时刻。",[831,2615,2616],{},"大道：他处于破产边缘不是一次了，所以这叫风投啊。（2025-11-25）",[831,2618,2619,2620,2622],{},"说他“不是人”是跟在“报时人”和“",[957,2621,181],{"href":2594},"”后面的，有点调侃但也是想说他确实很不一样。我确实不喜欢马斯克的某些东西，但他的产品和预见很多都很厉害的。承认别人厉害的地方没什么不好意思的。（2025-11-26）",[831,2624,2625],{},"网友：段总，您体验过FSD了吗，想知道无人驾驶的体验感怎么样，网上众说纷纭，想听听您的看法。",[831,2627,2628],{},"大道：非常棒！（2025-12-14）",[831,2630,2631],{},"连续走路打了7天球，确实有点累了。今天打完球在回家的路上25分钟路程开着自动驾驶不小心睡着了两次。一次带着墨镜，自己醒来的，然后把墨镜摘了，结果被警报惊醒。虽然经历的时间都应该很短，大概一两分钟，但还是有点吓人的。FSD确实蛮好的，我现在每次开特斯拉都是不干预的。不过，最后到达的地址很难绝对精确，所以到了目的地之后每次都需要人工干预了。",[831,2633,2634],{},"我还不能完全理解自动驾驶出租车最后会是什么样子，最后精确的地址是什么？需要人工干预的时候怎么办？谁来搬行李……。 感觉FSD已经足够好了，不知道啥时候他们能够让司机开着车可以发短信和下单啥的？（2026-01-10）",[831,2636,2637],{},"我很喜欢FSD，但我觉得这个离完全自动驾驶可能还有很长的一段路要走。这段时间我接管自动驾驶已经很多次了，几乎都是在最后那1%的路程当中。（2026-01-15）",[831,2639,2640],{},"网友：用过特斯拉的产品之后，想问一下大道现在有没有改变对特斯拉和马斯克的看法？",[831,2642,2643],{},"大道：对马斯克本人看法没啥大改变，不喜欢的东西依然不喜欢。不过，他的产品确实很了不起，FSD，Starlinks，火箭回收.......很多东西刚开始说的时候觉得像是蒙人的，结果10来年后真的做出来了。我觉得我可以放下一些东西，试试他的产品，投资也可以做点风投啥的，万一成了呢？“投资”特斯拉基本看的是“市梦率”，完全靠蒙，大家好自为之吧。",[831,2645,2646],{},"（2026-02-04）",[831,2648,2649],{},"网友：特斯拉现在市盈率390，怎么理解市场这种定价错误（过度悲观过度乐观）？",[831,2651,2652],{},"大道：如果他说的这些个事情真的实现了，这个定价怎么会是错误呢？有意思的是，他过去说过的很多事情真的都做到了，虽然时间上没有达到他自己的预期。我自己做过企业，能够理解时间上到不到预期是非常正常的事情，但最后还是能够到非常重要。所以，他说他在做的事情大概率他是真的在做，而且过去很多次都真的做成了，所以有人“风投”一下也是有道理的。（2026-02-04）",[831,2654,2655],{},"网友：大道的意思是马斯克的人格保留看法，产品创新表示赞赏。",[831,2657,2658],{},"大道：是啊，最近那个小岛事件也是个旁证，可以看到马斯克可能不靠谱的地方。（2026-02-05）",[831,2660,2661],{},"网友：段老师您好，请问您坐的特斯拉是哪款？",[831,2663,2664],{},"大道：Model Y。（2026-02-05）",[831,2666,2667],{},"网友：（网友晒出特斯拉Model Y）确实漂亮，难怪大道也喜欢。",[831,2669,2670],{},"大道：自从开了特斯拉Model Y后，已经很久没开过劳斯莱斯SUV了。（2026-05-02）",[831,2672,2673],{},"网友：（网友讨论特斯拉FSD的付费用户数与渗透率）",[831,2675,2676],{},"大道：除非真不舍得花那点钱，不然真想不出不用FSD的道理。安全很多的，而且是全天候的，至少比我自己开车要好很多。一旦开始用了后就再也放不下来了。我去别的地方租车开的时候，真的非常希望能租到有FSD的特斯拉，目前好像还没有。（2026-05-03）",[831,2678,2679],{},"网友：（跟单大道卖特斯拉的put）照抄啦",[831,2681,2682],{},"大道：下完单就去打球去了。刚查了一下，23.26成交了。5个月23.26\u002F91.74=25.35%，年化60%了，利润率蛮好的。starlinks 和fsd实在是太好用了，一定要支持一下哈。（2026-07-24）",[831,2684,2685],{},"网友：段总，对于马斯克最新预测，全人类到2036年，将不再为物质再工作，钱也不再被人类需要，您怎么看法？",[831,2687,2688],{},"大道：2036年似乎太快了，还没完全理解这句话。不过，开了特斯拉model Y后确实觉得在车上的贫富差距已经被彻底抹平了。（2026-07-25）",[831,2690,2691],{},"网友：段老师，冒昧的请教您，您觉得人形机器人未来会像冰箱，彩电，汽车一样成为一种新的家用电器么？似乎近些年来，人类科技的发展更加迅猛了呢。",[831,2693,2694],{},"大道：哪些年不是呢？ 科技进步一直都是迅猛的啊！？当年蒙古骑兵横扫欧洲其实就是因为发明了马鞍，那就是最先进的科技啊！我还没看懂人形机器人，不知道为什么非要人形，这个听着像是营销。（2026-08-29）",[831,2696,2697],{},"网友：马鞍可不是蒙古人发明的。",[831,2699,2700],{},"大道：你是对的。",[831,2702,2703],{},"大道（转AI回答）：Gemini：不是因为马鞍。 欧洲在数百年前就已经普及了高桥马鞍与马镫（这也是欧洲重装骑士能够持枪冲锋的基础）。\n蒙古西征能够席卷东欧与中欧，本质上是一场组织体系、战略机动与复合战术对欧洲封建领主武装的降维打击。",[2705,2706,2707],"ol",{},[2708,2709,2710],"li",{},"降维的战术与机动性（轻重骑兵协同）",[2712,2713,2714,2717],"ul",{},[2708,2715,2716],{},"风筝拉扯战术（曼古歹）： 蒙古军队约 60% 为轻骑兵、40% 为重骑兵。面对欧洲笨重且缺乏纪律的封建骑士，轻骑兵利用复合反曲弓远距离倾泻箭雨，并在假装败退（诱敌）数日后，将脱节的欧洲骑士引入包围圈，再由重骑兵完成合围冲垮。",[2708,2718,2719],{},"一人多马： 蒙古骑兵每人配备 3 到 5 匹蒙古马轮换骑行，日行军可达 80–100 公里，远超欧洲军队认知，往往在对方完成兵力集结前就已兵临城下。",[2705,2721,2722],{"start":21},[2708,2723,2724],{},"严密的组织度与情报网络",[2712,2726,2727,2730],{},[2708,2728,2729],{},"十进制军事编制： 蒙古军队实行十夫长、百夫长、千夫长、万夫长的严格层级，军令如山，且通过箭信、旗语和烟火实现高度协同。",[2708,2731,2732],{},"侦察与分进合击： 1241 年的列格尼卡战役与蒂萨河之战中，拔都与速不台在数百公里宽的战线上同时向波兰和匈牙利发起多路进攻，利用情报网络切断联军各部联系，逐个击破。",[2705,2734,2735,2738],{"start":26},[2708,2736,2737],{},"技术整合与攻城能力\n蒙古在征服中原与中亚过程中吸收了汉地与伊斯兰世界的工程技术，军中配有专门的工兵团、回回炮（巨型投石机）、弩炮以及火器。欧洲原以为可以依靠石头城堡防守，但在蒙古的系统化围攻与火器压制下迅速沦陷。",[2708,2739,2740],{},"欧洲内部的严重分裂\n当时的欧洲处于高度碎片化的封建割据状态，神圣罗马帝国皇帝与教皇内斗，波兰四分五裂，匈牙利国王与贵族互不信任，缺乏统一高效的战区指挥官，各领地武装基本上是一盘散沙。（2026-08-29）",[831,2742,2743],{},"网友：人形最大的作用应该是亲近人类，比如情感、情趣、服务类机器人？",[831,2745,2746],{},"大道：扫地僧不需要像人类的吧？现在好多golf球场都有扫地僧。（2026-08-29）",[831,2748,2749],{},"网友：人形机器人做成人形不是营销噱头，是因为我们这个社会所有的基础设施都是为人设计的，比如楼梯，工厂，学校布置等等。总不能改变整个社会的基础设施吧。我以前也不理解为啥机器人要做成人形。马斯克，华为天才少年稚晖君，现在出来做人形机器人了。这些干机器人得行家都说过类似观点。",[831,2751,2752],{},"大道：我不是很理解这点。现有基础设施上的机器人为什么不可以有三条腿甚至四条腿，为什么不能有更多手？我只是好奇，不是挑战的意思。我并不是觉得那是噱头，但确实不是很理解。也许我太实用主义了，也许人形会有很大的情绪价值的。（2026-08-30）",[831,2754,2755],{},"网友：大道，未来Robotaxi有没有可能会替代掉所有私家车，彻底改变人们对汽车的认知。大幅节省空间和能源（相对于人手一台的私家车，Robotaxi或者说robotcar能够更好的使用空间并通过最佳路径以及所需动力的计算来节省能源）\n（网友 @桃李3mo 接话：“坐飞机的人也控制不了，而且在天上。”）",[831,2757,2758],{},"大道：所以cybercab需要时间建立信任，消除恐惧感。我猜cybercab可能会需要比想象长一点的时间去推广。不过，10年后，大概率满大街跑的都是这类车了，就像科幻片里看到的那样。（2026-09-05）",[831,2760,2761],{},"大道：人的视觉能解决的问题，理论上ai最后都能解决，而且会解决的更好。这是个时间问题。 我现在能接受马斯克的逻辑了。（2026-09-08）",[827,2763,2765],{"id":2764},"spacex与星链","SpaceX与星链",[831,2767,2768],{},"网友：前两天段哥就说了下一步SpaceX很快会发股融资，刚过去一两天，它就宣布发一笔至少200亿美元的债券。请问段哥是如何提前预判到这一步的呢？",[831,2770,2771,2772,2774],{},"大道：“钱多人傻快来”是句玩笑哈。space x确实非常了不起的，但该给什么价我不知道。我目前还没有投资愿望，需要先看懂未来",[957,2773,88],{"href":1210},"再说。",[831,2776,2777],{},"至于融资也是可以理解的，他们未来会需要很多钱发展，近几年大概率还需要很多投入，所以近几年肯定是不会回购和分红的，虽然他们已经是个24年历史的公司了。他们的融资大概率还会继续有的，这是他们上市的目的。不过，如果马斯克想做到的事情真的能做到的话，这个市值并不是难以理解的。（2026-06-20）",[831,2779,2780],{},"网友：我记得大道雪球上表达过不喜欢马斯克，但是现在却对SpaceX心动了。。。会不会有点矛盾。或者是不喜欢他的人生态度和处事方式，但是觉得他可以为你打工赚钱也就忍了",[831,2782,2783],{},"大道：FSD和starlinks实在是太好用了！能把火箭发射成本这么大幅度将下来也是非常了不起的。虽然我确实不喜欢马斯克的有些东西，但他确实有很厉害的方面。（2026-07-24）",[831,2785,2786],{},"网友：我理解他是想请教大道space X等静态市盈率极高，怎么用未来现金流折现来估值，这个put行权价是怎么算出来的？",[831,2788,2789],{},"大道：其实就是按照马斯克的想法，未来space X的业务是能够赚到超过目前市值的现金流（折线）的。你要认同你就可以投点，不认同就远离。（2026-07-25）",[827,2791,2793],{"id":2792},"波音英特尔与台积电","波音、英特尔与台积电",[831,2795,1542,2796,2798],{},[835,2797,1721],{},"清仓台积电！",[831,2800,2801,2803,2804,2806,2807,2809],{},[835,2802,845],{}," 我不意外",[835,2805,1721],{},"会卖掉台积电。虽然台积电非常了不起，但",[957,2808,70],{"href":1036},"有点累，实在是太重了。大概30年前我就跟联电(UMC)的人说，将来台积电会很厉害，因为他们很专注。台积电一直非常专注在他们做的事情上，结果也确实非常了不起。",[831,2811,2812,2813,2815],{},"但投资是全方位比较的，我会更倾向于",[957,2814,70],{"href":1036},"更好一点的公司。(2023-05-16)",[831,2817,2818],{},"网友：能点评下现在的波音吗？",[831,2820,2821,2823],{},[835,2822,845],{}," 卖飞机的，合并了麦道之后干了些很奇怪的事情，以后麻烦比较大。",[831,2825,2826],{},"网友：能否点评下现在的英特尔？",[831,2828,2829,2831],{},[835,2830,845],{}," 不容易。",[831,2833,2834],{},"网友：能讲一下目前加关税情况下的台积电吗？",[831,2836,2837,2839],{},[835,2838,845],{}," 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