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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":637,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":41,"date":9,"description":639,"editor":1942,"extension":1943,"meta":1944,"navigation":1945,"order":640,"path":1946,"publishedAt":9,"seo":1947,"seoDescription":639,"seoTitle":1948,"slug":638,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":838,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":1949,"sourceStatus":1950,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":1951,"stem":1952,"summary":639,"tags":1953,"type":435,"updatedAt":1955,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"__hash__":1956,"_collection":1957},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-company-traditional-industries.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":1914},"minimark",[821,826,830,833,840,843,846,849,852,855,858,861,864,870,874,878,881,886,889,894,897,902,905,910,913,918,921,926,929,934,937,940,943,946,949,952,957,960,965,968,971,980,983,989,992,997,1006,1009,1014,1017,1020,1025,1028,1031,1034,1037,1042,1045,1048,1053,1060,1063,1068,1072,1075,1078,1083,1086,1089,1092,1097,1108,1115,1118,1121,1124,1129,1132,1135,1140,1143,1148,1152,1155,1158,1163,1168,1171,1180,1183,1188,1195,1207,1210,1215,1224,1239,1242,1247,1250,1255,1262,1267,1270,1276,1286,1292,1295,1298,1303,1306,1309,1314,1319,1322,1327,1330,1335,1338,1343,1346,1349,1354,1357,1360,1365,1368,1371,1376,1379,1384,1387,1392,1395,1400,1406,1415,1421,1428,1434,1454,1465,1469,1472,1477,1480,1483,1486,1491,1494,1502,1509,1512,1515,1518,1521,1527,1530,1533,1536,1539,1542,1545,1548,1551,1554,1557,1562,1566,1568,1571,1574,1579,1582,1587,1590,1595,1598,1603,1606,1611,1617,1622,1628,1631,1636,1639,1644,1647,1652,1655,1660,1663,1668,1674,1679,1696,1699,1702,1707,1710,1715,1718,1723,1726,1731,1734,1739,1742,1747,1750,1753,1758,1761,1770,1773,1776,1782,1788,1792,1795,1798,1803,1808,1811,1818,1821,1824,1827,1830,1833,1836,1841,1844,1849,1852,1857,1860,1863,1868,1871,1874,1877,1880,1883,1886,1889,1892,1895,1903,1906,1909],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-体制机制与国企","第一节 体制、机制与国企",[827,828,829],"p",{},"但斌：凭什么就一定说广药不行？",[827,831,832],{},"许多朋友和我聊起广药，多认为国企做不好快消品做不好王老吉，而加多宝的某些人也认为广药是“扶不起的阿斗”。可行不行，国共还打了三大战役才分出胜负，不打几次商战凭什么就一定说广药不行。如果选择，广州市政府拿百亿发展汽车工业不如……",[827,834,835,839],{},[836,837,838],"strong",{},"段永平"," ：不是很了解广药的治理结构和文化。但如果机制不对，即使像塔山这样的东西也会不行的。国营企业如果碰上类似格力董姐这种还是可以好一段时间的，但没有持续的好办法。（2012-07-06）",[827,841,842],{},"网友：看了段老师的许多以中国大陆地区为主要市场的投资对象和观察对象，包括：投资过的：YAHOO（雅虎）背后的阿里巴巴，网易，创维，万科，游戏股：巨人，完美，畅游等；您看好而没有投资过的：腾讯，格力等；大体上按照通俗的所有者和所有制分类，都是民营企业。",[827,844,845],{},"在您对于创维的评价中，您说：由于体制的因素，我个人一直认为创维是中国彩电行业里最健康的企业了。",[827,847,848],{},"您也说过当时美国某家渠道公司也来找了步步高，一听说要开无法撤销信用证掉头就走。而这家渠道公司造成了当时最大的一家国内彩电企业多年后一次性巨量撇账，这家彩电企业是国企，当家者也是当年红极一时的企业家。",[827,850,851],{},"印象里，还有一次，是您谈到海尔的时候，原文我没有找到，也有些记不住了，我个人理解的意思是：您欣赏张先生这位老大哥，但是老大哥式的企业由于体制的原因或者其他原因而影响了发展。",[827,853,854],{},"而您看好而没有买入的格力，除了或有的价格因素之外，您说：印象中格力空调好像也还不错，就是不知道现在的高层还能干多久。",[827,856,857],{},"我个人理解这其中其实也包含了体制问题。60岁年龄，Bartz（巴茨）可以继续干，董明珠这样优秀的企业家就要退下来。",[827,859,860],{},"我个人看了王石的“道路与梦想”，也讲到了他曾特意去探望当年红塔集团的褚老先生，看得出这位无畏的硬汉心中也有不小的感慨。当然王石先生很早就认识到了这个问题，通过持续而不断的努力，终于将万科的所有制结构股权结构改造的更加合理，管理层有比较大的工作空间。",[827,862,863],{},"正正反反的例子，加上投资者投资就是买入企业和企业未来的出发点，想请教段老师：体制因素和其带来的对于企业经营以及企业文化的考虑，是否是我们这些更多投资于国内企业的投资者应该多注意的呢。",[827,865,866,869],{},[836,867,868],{},"段永平："," 可能我在体制内的企业呆过，所以比较敏感，知道有些什么区别。这种区别不是随时都在，也不是哪里都能显现出来，但往往关键的时候就会发挥一些看不见的作用。（2010-08-14）",[822,871,873],{"id":872},"第二节-家电格力美的与彩电企业","第二节 家电：格力、美的与彩电企业",[875,876,877],"h3",{"id":877},"格力",[827,879,880],{},"网友：请教博主认为格力公司如何？",[827,882,883,885],{},[836,884,868],{}," 格力是好公司（2010-03-30）",[827,887,888],{},"网友：格力听说是先收款再发货的，甚至是预付，牛。",[827,890,891,893],{},[836,892,868],{}," 呵呵，难道还有别的办法可以活下来的？（2010-03-30）",[827,895,896],{},"网友H：日本的电器公司目前处于成熟期，成长空间不大，那段总觉得中国电器公司格力、美的等目前是好的投资机会吗？不要告诉我你又不了解这个行业哈。",[827,898,899,901],{},[836,900,868],{}," 呵呵，我有点了解这类公司，但不能评价，尤其是不对个股评价。（2010-04-04）",[827,903,904],{},"网友：担心董明珠退休后接班人的问题。",[827,906,907,909],{},[836,908,868],{}," 这正是我担心的地方，不然现在这价就不贵哦。（2010-07-07）",[827,911,912],{},"网友：我也认为它是一家好公司，虽然生意模式不是太好，但其他几个方面（管理能力，产品技术，品牌等都很好），只要董明珠还在任上，我也会一直持有。",[827,914,915,917],{},[836,916,838],{}," ：董姐确实是非常非常难得的了不起。只是没办法知道哪天她退休后这个机制下如何能够保持他们现在的文化。（2013-02-14）",[827,919,920],{},"网友：您对国内家电产业有什么看法么？感觉这个行业受国外品牌的冲击在减少？",[827,922,923,925],{},[836,924,868],{}," 很难找到好的投资标的。（2013-08-31）",[827,927,928],{},"网友S：格力不错，也不贵，去年赚70亿，董姐说今年能赚100亿，现在市值才700多亿。最大的问题是董姐退休后能不能保持现在的文化。",[827,930,931,933],{},[836,932,868],{}," 10年后会怎么样？（2013-08-31）",[827,935,936],{},"网友S：空调是耐用品，一般人会认为质量很重要，同级别的产品格力的质量要好一点，这一点用户是知道的，随着收入的提高越来越多的人愿意多花点钱买台质量好一点的空调，这是格力的市场占有率多年来不断提高的根本原因，同时格力每台空调还能比其他空调卖贵一点，在每台空调上多赚点钱，格力每年卖几千万台空调，每台多卖个100元就能多收几十亿。",[827,938,939],{},"格力很专注，空调市场很大：国内市场普及率的提高、国外市场的蚕食、中央空调、上游配套，未来10年格力的空间还很大。",[827,941,942],{},"10年后格力卖出的空调会比现在多得多，由于产品的更新换代，格力在每台空调上赚的钱也会比现在多一点，10年后每年应该能赚200亿以上？格力的价值在3000亿左右。",[827,944,945],{},"空调不算个重资产行业，每年需要的资本开支不大，按现在的分红比例和趋势，未来十年内应该能分个500亿，好点的话分个700-800亿，则以现在价位买入的股东的成本完全收回。",[827,947,948],{},"格力有自己独立的销售渠道，大零售商销售格力的产品比例不高。",[827,950,951],{},"最近两三年已经没有听说谁想投资做空调了，除非有革命性的技术突破，否则这个行业不会有什么新的进入者。",[827,953,954,956],{},[836,955,868],{}," 你这么看确实有看10年的意思，具体看法对不对是属于如何把事情做对的范畴。我对格力不那么了解，觉得过去他们确实做得不错，但对朱江洪的离开方式很困惑，也不知道10年后的企业文化会变成什么样子。（2013-09-03）",[827,958,959],{},"网友S：是的，我也感觉到格力的服务还有很多需要改进的地方，一到旺季经常出很多问题。",[827,961,962,964],{},[836,963,868],{}," 21天有点过分啊，是个案吗？大夏天的杭州21天没空调，不容易！（2013-09-05）",[827,966,967],{},"网友S：应该不是个案，因为工作的关系，最近几年多次找格力的售后维修空调，需要更换的零件稍微大一点的比如电路板、压缩机都没有现成的，要向公司申请调货，有时候两三天能到，有时候要等一个星期，几年前这样，现在还是这样，一直搞不懂为什么这个环节一直没改进，空调坏的时候一般是大热天，维修速度对用户来说非常重要。",[827,969,970],{},"另外我接触过的格力专卖店的专业化程度、服务水平都很一般，基本上都是很“个体户”的感觉，同样是经销商开的加盟店，远比不上卖梳子的谭木匠。",[827,972,973,975,976,979],{},[836,974,868],{}," 没做过这种大件，不好评价太多。",[836,977,978],{},"当年曾经想过空调的生意，就是想不通怎么才能做好安装和售后才放弃的。我当年提的售后服务条款里有一条，叫“立等可取”，当时修不好的可以临时给一台先用着，大件这么做可能有点困难？以前我在这里说过一个例子，我去苹果店，说买新机没有，但坏了可以换个新的。空调似乎更应该如此啊，大热天要命的。"," （2013-09-06）",[827,981,982],{},"网友S：品类很少才有可能做到苹果那样的吧，你们公司的产品品类不少，售后不可能做到“立等可取”吧？作为用户来说，“立等可取”听起来很舒服啊。",[827,984,985,988],{},[836,986,987],{},"段永平：“"," 立等可取”的意思就是尽量减少顾客的不方便，包括提供一个暂时替代的产品，并不是所有东西都能马上好的意思。（2013-09-07）",[827,990,991],{},"网友：我认为格力没有好的文化传承。如果董明珠退休了，格力还能有这份坚持吗？",[827,993,994,996],{},[836,995,868],{}," 那是你买的时候要考虑的东西。(2014-08-21)",[827,998,999,1000,1005],{},"（董明珠“给员工涨薪10亿”那条引用，以及段永平“加薪不是恩赐”的回应，见",[1001,1002,1004],"a",{"href":1003},"\u002Fwenda-business-10#%E7%AC%AC%E5%85%AD%E8%8A%82-%E6%BF%80%E5%8A%B1%E5%85%AC%E5%B9%B3%E4%B8%8E%E8%A7%84%E7%9F%A9","激励、公平与规矩","。）",[827,1007,1008],{},"网友：格力在技术研发上，格力电器从不设上线，需要多少投入多少，仅2010年格力的科研投入就超过30亿元，而净利润只有40多个亿。请教大道的看法。",[827,1010,1011,1013],{},[836,1012,868],{}," 该花的钱当然要花，你问什么？怎么判断是否该花是能力圈问题？（2011-12-06）",[875,1015,1016],{"id":1016},"美的",[827,1018,1019],{},"网友：美的、九阳紫砂锅被爆虚假宣传，内胆原料泥竟是田土。这么知名的企业也会犯这么低级的错误？！也许是文化的问题，文化不是挂在嘴边说给别人听的，而是烙在自己心里，表现在行动上！",[827,1021,1022,1024],{},[836,1023,868],{}," 我也不知该说啥，反正我们不会允许这种事。（2010-05-24）",[827,1026,1027],{},"网友：锰会在高温条件下（通常是900-1300度，陶瓷的烧制温度）被固定在晶格的结构中，不可能被稀释出来。锰的毒害性在这种情况下可以被忽略（一个是因为其成分少，一个是因为其被囚禁在晶格中，再个做饭时不会使用强酸）。",[827,1029,1030],{},"我们知道铅的毒性，但是铅在最严格的欧洲环保法规ROHS指令里面在电子陶瓷里面的禁用也是被豁免的，也就是说欧盟法规认为铅在电子陶瓷中的应用是无害的，其原因也是陶瓷中被高温烧结的铅，是被“囚禁”固定在晶格中，无法逸出害人。",[827,1032,1033],{},"因为我有间工厂专门做软磁材料与产品（麦格磁电），所以对该产品了解得较细致，以上供大家参考。希望上述解释对大家有用。",[827,1035,1036],{},"对美的的这个危机而言，最彻底的做法是做对比化学分析，所谓“不怕不识货，就怕货比货”。但是剑是双刃的，如果对比结果一样，皆大欢喜；不一样哪，客人估计不会买账了。如果不一样，那么美的真的太山寨了就。",[827,1038,1039,1041],{},[836,1040,868],{}," 其实最不好的是把合成紫砂说成天然紫砂，后面的只能够安抚一下用过的人，但后果已成，只能慢慢消化。所谓病来如山倒非一日之寒，病去如抽丝非一日之功啊。我看到他们处理这事还是挺诚恳和迅速的，这个态度能补救很多。",[827,1043,1044],{},"希望所有人引以为戒，我们实在是有太多太聪明的人了。（2010-05-27）",[827,1046,1047],{},"网友：诊断美的曾几何时，美的集团在中国家电市场攻城略地，将整个家电江湖搅得血雨腥风，营业额高歌猛进，似乎不把海尔从头把交椅拉下誓不罢休。如今，大裁员的背后折射出其经营管理的困顿。这背后，是营销驱动的粗放式扩张，以至于渠道模式翻来覆……",[827,1049,1050,1052],{},[836,1051,868],{}," 这个结局是由其生意模式决定的，早晚都会来的。作为投资者要尽量避开这种生意模式。（2012-02-19）",[827,1054,1055,1056,1059],{},"网友：",[836,1057,1058],{},"步步高","的生活电器我也注意到了，但好像销售力度不大呀，至少我在北京的家乐福超市没怎么注意到过，比如说豆浆机。生活家电，我觉着美的的相当不错，因为家里用的电饭煲、微波炉都是它的，豆浆机也倾向去它。",[827,1061,1062],{},"还有，我很看好美的电器这家国内公司，但它的股价相对于价值，投资的安全边界不够大，也许是我水平低吧，没搞懂它。您觉着这家公司怎么样呢，投资价值大不大呢？同处一个行业，应该更了解吧。",[827,1064,1065,1067],{},[836,1066,868],{}," 美的是我们尊重的竞争对手(也叫竞合伙伴)。美的能够在市场上这么多年一直不错，一定有它的道理。投资角度上我没有研究评估过，你可能要自己认真看了。我们进入生活电器这个领域一定是因为看到了某种机会，我们需要一些时间去证明。(2010-03-23)",[875,1069,1071],{"id":1070},"创维长虹与彩电同行","创维、长虹与彩电同行",[827,1073,1074],{},"网友：理解巴菲特和段总的投资思想，投资企业要看三个方面：一是看财务报表；二是看管理层；三是看对产品理解和把握。段总投资万科是对王石的信任，而投资创维又是为什么呢……再谈谈产品：我是做电子产品研发的，一直比较喜欢从分析产品质量的角度去分析公司的好坏。对中国电子行业的状况还算比较了解。",[827,1076,1077],{},"对创维、TCL、康佳等等的产品质量确实不敢恭维。段总对电子产品和游戏的理解非常人所能及，能否指点一下您怎么看明白了创维，而敢于出手。学习中。",[827,1079,1080,1082],{},[836,1081,868],{}," 不知道你平时都恭维谁的产品质量。我们买创维时创维的市值只有十多个亿港币，他们那栋大楼都快有那个价了。创维在电视机行业里算是最健康的企业了，不太会乱来，长期而言，如果他们都无法生存，那这个行业就将不复存在了，句号。",[827,1084,1085],{},"我不同意你说的投资企业要看哪几个方面的说法。我一直认为这里没有公式。投资看的是资产（真实净资产），或者说折现到今天的资产（同上），所有的因素都可能会有影响，影响最大的往往是最坏的因素。",[827,1087,1088],{},"关于企业什么东西重要的说法你可以参考下麦肯锡的7S，我喜欢用这个工具去看企业。（2010-03-15）",[827,1090,1091],{},"网友：比方说创维，当时如何大概能看出来他们的企业文化还是不错的，还是健康的呢？",[827,1093,1094,1096],{},[836,1095,868],{}," 创维相对于同行而言是较为健康的。好的企业文化会大大提高沟通的效率。（2010-10-15）",[827,1098,1099,1100,1103,1104,1005],{},"（以下三段出自段永平讲",[836,1101,1102],{},"GE","的长文《一直说有机会讲几个我自己的例子》结尾，见",[1001,1105,1107],{"href":1106},"\u002Fwenda-company-energy-industrial#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E8%8A%82-ge%E9%80%9A%E7%94%A8%E7%94%B5%E6%B0%94","GE（通用电气）",[827,1109,1110,1111,1114],{},"其实当年我买",[836,1112,1113],{},"万科","和创维好像也有类似的感觉。顺便提提创维，因为有博友问起我为什么买创维。创维和我们算是同行了，他们这个公司到底怎么样我们多少还是了解的。由于体制的因素，我个人一直认为创维是中国彩电行业里最健康的企业。虽然当时出了些事，但公司最基本的东西并没有因此改变。",[827,1116,1117],{},"我们买创维时创维的市值好像还不到20亿元(我不太记得了，也有说20出头的)，我怎么想都觉得便宜，就买了。我们是买到差一万股到5%的时候停的，因为再买就要公告了，所以很想在公告前和黄宏生沟通一下，怕人家以为我要去抢人家那一亩三分地，呵呵。结果当时由于不太方便，最后我们就没有再买。一直到前两个礼拜才和黄老板通了个电话，道个谢，问个好啥的。",[827,1119,1120],{},"对创维而言，我并没有一个很清楚的到底值多少钱的概念，对他们现在的业务情况了解得也不细，所以涨上来以后就一直在陆陆续续减持，现在可能还剩不到最高持有量的 20%了。我觉得现在买的人可能比我更清楚创维的价值，后面的钱应该是他们才能赚到的。(2010-03-29)",[827,1122,1123],{},"网友：请问您觉得是什么因素导致有些民营企业，特别是制造业，异地发展效益低下？",[827,1125,1126,1128],{},[836,1127,868],{}," 这和民营企业没啥关系。其实制造业在不同地方开设分厂的情况非常罕见，除非是很重的产品比如水或者啤酒类，不然怎么着也是愿意靠近供应链的。感觉你对生意还不太有概念哈。没人能够知道为什么有些公司或工厂效益低下的原因的，因为原因可能会有一万种。(2019-09-07)",[827,1130,1131],{},"关于靠近供应链的事情，我想起早年长虹电视很火的那段时间，有次我跟一个朋友说，长虹离供应链那么远，成本会远高于竞争对手的，长期而言他们肯定不行。(2023-02-22)",[827,1133,1134],{},"网友：真是小常识里有大道理。",[827,1136,1137,1139],{},[836,1138,868],{}," 这个不是简单的“常识”。30年前我们给各地发货，最难的就是那一带，成本也是最高的。所谓蜀道难可不是随便说说的。(2023-02-23)",[827,1141,1142],{},"网友：同样的管理体系下，分散各个不同地方的组织，有些组织已经盈利，但有些亏损，能否认为一段时间后亏损的也应该会盈利呢？",[827,1144,1145,1147],{},[836,1146,868],{}," 同样的“管理体系”在不同的地方不能保证盈利。“同样的”东西不一定是同样的。（2010-10-15）",[822,1149,1151],{"id":1150},"第三节-汽车比亚迪丰田与通用汽车","第三节 汽车：比亚迪、丰田与通用汽车",[875,1153,1154],{"id":1154},"比亚迪",[827,1156,1157],{},"网友：好多新闻说到比亚迪的车不行的。在品质方面比亚迪的车可能还是要有很大的改进的。",[827,1159,1160,1162],{},[836,1161,838],{}," ：希望开所有车的所有人安全驾驶。（2010-04-13）",[827,1164,1165,1167],{},[836,1166,868],{}," 我认为BYD就是没有“护城河”的企业，事实上，BYD是刚刚越过了别人的护城河，但对老巴而言，依然是个非常好的投资。（2010-05-22）",[827,1169,1170],{},"网友：你以前说过这样一句话：如果中石油回到当年巴菲特买的价钱，我会毫不犹豫跳进去，因为我后来看懂了。如果比亚迪回到当年巴菲特买的价钱，我还是不会买，因为还是不懂。段总，你能说明一下为什么你看懂了中石油，而没有看懂比亚迪吗？",[827,1172,1173,1175,1176,1179],{},[836,1174,838],{}," ：我现在觉得有点明白芒格为什么投比亚迪了。如果我能有当时一样的条件，我也可以投。大概就是个未来",[1001,1177,88],{"href":1178},"\u002Fxianjinliu","折现的问题。芒格投20亿（的1\u002F10）在40出头的王传福身上，认为他未来20年（或更长）肯定可以给出多倍回报。这么看王传福的话，当时那个价确实便宜。（2010-06-21）",[827,1181,1182],{},"网友S：关于入股比亚迪，巴菲特在前晚举行的晚宴上回忆说：“51年前我认识了查理·芒格。他这些年给我一共打过三次电话，讲过三个自己的主意。两年前他打电话给我说有一个主意是他长这么大最好的一个主意，这个好主意就是比亚迪。而且查理·芒格跟我说，我要是不买比亚迪的股份，他将永远离开我。”",[827,1184,1185,1187],{},[836,1186,868],{}," 不会的。巴菲特说的是他自己的观点。我相信现在他确实就是这么认为的。（2010-09-29）",[827,1189,1190,1191,1194],{},"网友：不明白",[836,1192,1193],{},"芒格","为何如此看好比亚迪。",[827,1196,1197,1199,1200,1203,1204,1206],{},[836,1198,868],{}," 我也一直认为买比亚迪不是",[836,1201,1202],{},"巴菲特","的风格。无论如何，",[836,1205,1193],{},"的面子是要给的，结果也很好。(2010-09-29)",[827,1208,1209],{},"网友：比亚迪现在的车有小毛病不碍事吧。我觉得它的新能源车是很宽的护城河。",[827,1211,1212,1214],{},[836,1213,838],{}," ：没兴趣。幸福的家庭都是相似的，不幸的家庭各有各的不幸。（2010-10-11）",[827,1216,1217,1218,1220,1221,1223],{},"网友：对",[836,1219,1202],{},"买比亚迪是买王传福未来几十年",[1001,1222,88],{"href":1178},"能理解一些了，以前单纯看比亚迪年报看不出什么，结合着比亚迪几十年的发展史来看，那个价格买王传福优秀卓越的经营能力确实不贵。",[827,1225,1226,1228,1229],{},[836,1227,868],{}," ",[836,1230,1231,1232,1234,1235,1238],{},"呵呵，我想巴菲特买的也是王传福的未来",[1001,1233,88],{"href":1178},"(的",[1001,1236,97],{"href":1237},"\u002Fzhexian",")。(2011-01-09)",[827,1240,1241],{},"网友：最近有一些报道主要关于是比亚迪的问题方面的！我想，也许是比亚迪的车开的速度太快了，所以也出问题了！其三季度利润下降非常大（99%），从这样看，比亚迪不仅仅是在把事情做对上的错误，而是过于追求大，追求利润！如果真是那样，王传福就犯大错误了！巴菲特投资比亚迪，应该是看好王传福！这次巴老是否错了呢？你如何看！",[827,1243,1244,1246],{},[836,1245,868],{}," 每个活人都会犯错。你要想投个不犯错的公司的唯一办法就是不投。关键是看人犯的是什么错和是否有机会改。从投资的角度讲，巴菲特投比亚迪可还是赚大钱的啊，你为什么认为他错了呢？这些在发生的事可能早已经在他的预见范围里了。（2011-02-26）",[827,1248,1249],{},"网友：真正的一时风头无两，最重要的是全球范围啊！不知道比亚迪汽车过几年会不会有这样的奇迹",[827,1251,1252,1254],{},[836,1253,838],{}," ：我估计我们打败苹果的奇迹会先发生。（2011-05-07）",[827,1256,1257,1258,1261],{},"网友：比亚迪回归A股，是A股",[1001,1259,58],{"href":1260},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者的一次机会吗？",[827,1263,1264,1266],{},[836,1265,868],{}," 你问的是什么机会？",[827,1268,1269],{},"到目前为止我还是没完全搞懂比亚迪。我觉得王传福是个对商业机会很敏感且非常用功的人，但不是很明白为什么他们现在还在四面出击，同时还要借那么多钱。",[827,1271,1272,1273,1275],{},"这次在",[836,1274,1202],{},"那里还和王传福一起吃了个饭并聊了一会，但时间有限，没能了解太深，有待进一步了解。如果比亚迪的储能柜真的能做成的话，那可是大事，因为目前利用太阳能最大的问题就是还不能有效储存能量。可是，比亚迪现在的业务很散，给我的感觉好像是没足够信心集中精力在能源产品上的样子。",[827,1277,1278,1279,1282,1283,1285],{},"另外，我不太喜欢他们的中国第一和世界第一的那些个目标，那些个东西消费者其实不关心。你看看",[836,1280,1281],{},"苹果","什么时候说过要提高市场占有率了？",[836,1284,1281],{},"总是说且只说要做最好的产品(消费者最喜欢的产品)。",[827,1287,1288,1289,1291],{},"为了达到第一的目标(实际上是数量上的第一)，企业一定会做些很奇怪的事情，比如价格战，比如因为过于急于上量而导致的质量问题等。当我看到他们说把2015年成为第一的目标推迟到2018年的时候，我就觉得他们还没有明白过去在哪里出了问题。当然，如果王传福真是像",[836,1290,1193],{},"说的那样，是个爱迪生和韦尔奇的合体超人(超人是我加的)，那可能一切就都是对的。",[827,1293,1294],{},"但这些超出了我的理解能力范围，所以我自己不会去抓这个机会。(2011-05-11)",[827,1296,1297],{},"网友：巴菲特投比亚迪确实让人看不懂，@大道无形我有型 能否解惑下。",[827,1299,1300,1302],{},[836,1301,868],{}," 巴菲特投比亚迪吗？1.巴菲特一直说他开始是不愿投的，是芒格一再“逼”他投的。2.他只投了他管的钱的千分之一，大家还是不要太当回事的好。他只不过是想试试。我觉得他真正的错误是说了些不该说的话而已。（2011-10-24）",[827,1304,1305],{},"网友：任何一种前瞻技术投入面临的风险都是不小的，市场能不能起来只是时间问题，最怕的就是选错了方向。我一直认为王传福是一个务实的人，比亚迪很早就开始切入电动汽车的研发，我相信他们还是很认真的。只不过在后期市场比预期相差太远，所以给人的感觉他们是在利用电动汽车来赚眼球。当然也不排除他们尝到甜头后顺势而为。高速扩张过程中面对诱惑，迷失方向是常事。",[827,1307,1308],{},"不过，比亚迪的问题比我预想的要严重得多，它的安全问题被曝光后让很多人大跌眼镜。",[827,1310,1311,1313],{},[836,1312,868],{}," “很多人大跌眼镜”让我的眼镜也找不到了。（2012-01-31）",[827,1315,1316,1318],{},[836,1317,868],{}," 呵呵，他说的这几条都有道理，但其实老巴唯一错的地方是对byd说得有点太多。老巴“投”byd其实只是花小钱给芒格一个面子，或者说是个犯错误的机会。老巴实际上一直不太情愿投，但芒格可能是受别人影响，对byd感觉太好。实际上从某个时间以后，老巴就再也不提byd了，你懂的。（2012-02-13）",[827,1320,1321],{},"网友Q：巴菲特投资比亚迪失败了吗？以他们购买的价格计算好像不是吧！我觉得不要过早下结论。",[827,1323,1324,1326],{},[836,1325,868],{}," 现在应该还有200-300%的利润吧？但老巴说了他不会卖的，10年以后就不好说了（2012-02-13）",[827,1328,1329],{},"网友D：是人都会犯错，不要真把他当作神了，更没必要帮他掩饰错误。",[827,1331,1332,1334],{},[836,1333,868],{}," 那么说我买的那点新浪也算犯错误了？本人是很理性看待这个问题的。记得当年刚刚知道老巴买了比亚迪时很是纠结了一阵要不要给他发个email说说我的看法，但后来想通了这其实不是他的典型投资，所以从来没对他说过啥。（2012-02-14）",[827,1336,1337],{},"网友：想请教段总对比亚迪的看法，比亚迪今年有3款重磅车型要发布，如果新车配置参数真实的话，我想比亚迪新车型会大卖，盈利会大涨，加上电动车概念，混合动力技术，想象空间应该很大。纠结的是现在的市盈率40倍左右，股价已经不低，还有害怕王传福是吹牛。想请教段总，像比亚迪这类PE很高，业绩有高增长预期的公司，是否值得投资？",[827,1339,1340,1342],{},[836,1341,868],{}," 想象一下拿10年的感觉吧。（2013-02-28）",[827,1344,1345],{},"引用：比亚迪半导体再引资8亿人民币 比亚迪持股摊薄至72.3%",[827,1347,1348],{},"比亚迪股份（01211.HK）公布，控股子公司比亚迪半导体与30位投资者签订第二轮增资协议，拟向比亚迪半导体合计增资约8亿人民币，取得约7.843%股权。完成后，公司于比亚迪半导体持股将摊薄至约72.301%。",[827,1350,1351,1353],{},[836,1352,868],{}," 比亚迪半导体？比亚迪口罩？看来汽车不太赚钱，商业模式不是那么好？（2020-06-16）",[875,1355,1356],{"id":1356},"丰田",[827,1358,1359],{},"网友：丰田汽车怎么了？（2010-02-09）",[827,1361,1362,1364],{},[836,1363,868],{}," 丰田汽车最近的大规模召回可能会对丰田品牌造成长期致命的伤害。如果不召回呢？那将彻底摧毁丰田。那丰田该咋办？没办法，因为错在前面。不知道到现在为止丰田的同学们找到原因没有？我猜的理由忒简单，就是跑得太快了。经过很多很多年的努力，优秀的丰田在销量上终于成为了世界第一。在成为世界第一的过程当中，丰田经历了一轮又一轮不停且快速的扩张。",[827,1366,1367],{},"谁开得太快都危险，丰田也不例外。也不例外的同学还有：花旗，雷曼兄弟，AIG，蒙牛......我这键盘怎么没有顿号呢？一路逗号打得好难受。本来就没学过怎么用标点符号，好不容易有个会用的还找不到。例子不多举了，以后大家开车慢点，一定要打安全带哦。",[827,1369,1370],{},"网友S：企业为什么这样，段总肯定比一般人更清楚啦。",[827,1372,1373,1375],{},[836,1374,868],{}," 丰田今天道歉时就是说他们的问题是发展太快造成的，呵呵，和我说的一样。知错就改的就是好同志，丰田是家好公司啊，可惜股价没怎么掉，不然说不定也是个好机会。（2010-03-01）",[827,1377,1378],{},"网友O：我觉得丰田的精益生产还是有生命力的，不因为出了事就否定了整个丰田和丰田对制造生产的贡献。",[827,1380,1381,1383],{},[836,1382,868],{}," 丰田股价根本就没掉什么。（2010-03-01）",[827,1385,1386],{},"网友：丰田一定会没事的，它的企业文化本来就强，正如段总看到GE道歉转而产生信心一样，阳光会在风雨后，越跌应该越买。",[827,1388,1389,1391],{},[836,1390,868],{}," 我也挺喜欢丰田。本以为这次会有机会，结果到现在为止丰田就没怎么掉（2010-03-29）",[875,1393,1394],{"id":1394},"通用汽车",[827,1396,1055,1397,1399],{},[836,1398,1202],{},"说过要回避轮子上的公司，这里应该是指汽车行业。欧美走过的路表明，GDP每增长1个百分点，汽车行业就增长3个百分点。1916年的时候美国有500多家汽车厂，现在只剩下3家，中国可能会走同样的路。从上面两点来看，一方面行业的蛋糕越来越大，另一方面行业集中度越来越高。",[827,1401,1402,1403,1405],{},"对于这个行业里的优势企业来说，应该是有机会的，为什么",[836,1404,1202],{},"选择回避呢？",[827,1407,1408,1410,1411,1414],{},[836,1409,868],{}," 这类企业的产品很难有",[1001,1412,146],{"href":1413},"\u002Fchayihua","，所以长期而言很难赚钱。(2011-03-22)",[827,1416,1417,1418,1420],{},"“",[836,1419,1202],{},"一季度买入1000万股通用汽车。”(新闻)",[827,1422,1423,1424,1427],{},"买通用汽车有点费解，",[836,1425,1426],{},"生意模式","可不太好啊，感觉像个雪茄烟蒂。不过通用汽车的财务数据倒是不错。",[827,1429,1430,1431,1433],{},"网友：为什么不太好？因为汽车是",[1001,1432,146],{"href":1413},"不大的产品？",[827,1435,1436,1228,1438,1440,1441,1443,1444,1446,1447,1449,1450,1453],{},[836,1437,868],{},[1001,1439,146],{"href":1413},"小是个重要方面。还有就是工会也是个麻烦，成本下不来，可能10来年后又要破产一次。如果不打算拿10年的企业为何要拿10天？非常可能这个不是",[836,1442,1202],{},"的决策，那可以看出",[836,1445,1202],{},"很宽容，但也看出",[836,1448,1202],{},"之后",[836,1451,1452],{},"伯克希尔","的能力确实会下降。(2012-05-18)",[827,1455,1456,1457,1461,1462,1464],{},"（以上两条问答在",[1001,1458,1460],{"href":1459},"\u002Fwenda-business-03#%E7%AC%AC%E5%9B%9B%E8%8A%82-%E9%9A%BE%E4%BB%A5%E5%B7%AE%E5%BC%82%E5%8C%96%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%84%8F","难以差异化的生意","里另有一个转录版本；段永平谈电动车减碳、动力电池与储能的",[1001,1463,146],{"href":1413},"，也在那一节。）",[822,1466,1468],{"id":1467},"第四节-食品与消费品制造双汇瑞贝卡","第四节 食品与消费品制造：双汇、瑞贝卡",[875,1470,1471],{"id":1471},"双汇",[827,1473,1474,1476],{},[836,1475,868],{}," 补充一点：买的时候避开的意思就是不懂不做，事前想清楚。",[827,1478,1479],{},"去年有个朋友想投双汇，问我的看法。我说我不懂，你好像也不比我懂，但我觉得中国食品行业风险大，不知道啥时候就会出点啥问题，结果不幸而言中了。（2011-03-30）",[827,1481,1482],{},"网友：3月31日上午，双汇“万人大会”上的标语。当日上午，双汇集团在河南省漯河市体育馆召开万人职工大会，参加会议的有双汇集团中层以上代表，供应商、销售商代表，漯河当地的工商、卫生、畜牧等相关单位的主管负责人，双汇集团的30多家投资代表，30多家国内媒体记者，还有建行、中行、汇丰等国内外的23家银行的相关人士，但无消费者代表出席。",[827,1484,1485],{},"我们国家的食品安全到了不容忽视的地步。应该用严峻的法规加以制止，真希望双汇不是作秀。结果（现场背景牌上的“双汇”拼音被印错）确实不应该，双汇万岁可以，至于万岁是不是有点过了。什么年代。感觉双汇企业文化是有问题。",[827,1487,1488,1490],{},[836,1489,868],{}," 感觉他们关心企业生存多过关心消费者健康，还感觉大家多少有点委屈，总之感觉有点怪。（2011-04-02）",[827,1492,1493],{},"网友：目前双汇的“瘦肉精”事件，到底如何判断目前的危机是危险还是机会呢？",[827,1495,1496,1498,1499,1501],{},[836,1497,868],{}," 这种时候关键看你对公司及其文化有多了解。比如，",[836,1500,1102],{},"的杰夫·伊梅尔特出来说公司没问题时，我是相信他确实认为自己公司没问题，所以我就敢下手买。",[827,1503,1504,1505,1508],{},"如果",[836,1506,1507],{},"王石","碰到类似问题时出来说话我也会相信的。",[827,1510,1511],{},"但如果是雷曼或美国国际集团(American International Group,AIG)的 CEO 当时出来说，我是无法相信的，因为不了解。",[827,1513,1514],{},"你如果了解双汇并绝对相信他们的话，那就会是个机会，不然还是离远一点好。",[827,1516,1517],{},"阿里的供应商欺诈问题反映了当时管理层的心态已经出问题了，但马云后来的处理还是很给力的，如果股价因此大掉的话，我觉得会是个机会。不过，实际情况好像掉得也很少，看不出有大油水。",[827,1519,1520],{},"我个人认为，一般情况下，急跌的股票还是不要碰的好。资本市场大多数情况下都很聪明，但偶尔的错判往往会是机会。",[827,1522,1523,1526],{},[836,1524,1525],{},"投资不要怕错失机会，最重要的是不要犯大错。没听说过这种事有规律可循的。","（2011-03-24）",[875,1528,1529],{"id":1529},"瑞贝卡",[827,1531,1532],{},"网友Y：对瑞贝卡的几点反思：",[827,1534,1535],{},"1）定位的问题。瑞贝卡品牌的主力价格在5000左右，算是奢侈品了，但同时它在美国市场上哪怕是高端的产品价格也就几十美金$，是不折不扣的大众品。这两边的差异实在有点大，不知未来会以什么样的方式协调起来。另外，在瑞贝卡的影响下，各个洋品牌和假洋品牌都来中国市场觅食，而且一家比一家卖得贵，瑞贝卡相当于把整个行业都定义成奢侈品了，我很怀疑这能不能有利于行业发展？",[827,1537,1538],{},"另外，奢侈品在经济不景气的时期，通常也是比较郁闷的，更何况是这种还不太有品牌底蕴的。",[827,1540,1541],{},"2）瑞贝卡的产品体验（产品设计与佩戴的舒适自然度）相对竞争对手是有优势的，国内品牌推广做的也尚可，但渠道建设还是欠些火候。一是广告到了店还没开，二是这几年重加盟轻自营，加盟商又是重短期利益轻品牌建设，长久下来未必是好事。",[827,1543,1544],{},"3）就像研究框架里说的，我们需要考察公司的管理人是否德才兼备。就瑞贝卡而言，郑有全“才”是有的，但从股东角度来看“德”就差一些。这些年经营所得的现金估计有不少是花在诸如给许昌修路建桥呀，做做房地产呀，收收矿呀之类的项目上了，很漠视股东利益的。",[827,1546,1547],{},"4）原有产品的基数太大，国内市场做得再好，可能也就是从10到20的过程了，1到10那一段已经过去了。",[827,1549,1550],{},"总的来说，公司的不确定性确实高了点，弹性也未必那么的大。确定性高的公司弹性可以差点，但确定性差的公司弹性必须要高，当然，在确定性和弹性两者之间选择，为了少犯错，还是要选确定性高的。",[827,1552,1553],{},"非常惭愧，我在去年10块多买了一点，8块多亏着卖了。买它是为了套利，逻辑是在12.2的价格上定增之后管理层能顾及到参与定增5家机构投资者的利益，我们也跟着沾点光。其实，这个逻辑真的是很一厢情愿的，何况2011年郑总可能也遭遇了无米之炊呢。",[827,1555,1556],{},"当然，瑞贝卡未来可能还是有机会的，但更大的机会是建立在公司经营的切实提升上的，而公司是否能做到这一点，我们还需要予以更多的观察和验证。",[827,1558,1559,1561],{},[836,1560,868],{}," 不知道这个公司，但从文中叙述的情况看不值得花时间。（2012-04-07）",[822,1563,1565],{"id":1564},"第五节-地产与园林万科华侨城星河湾与东方园林","第五节 地产与园林：万科、华侨城、星河湾与东方园林",[875,1567,1113],{"id":1113},[827,1569,1570],{},"网友S：段总，各位，刚听了《财经会客厅》王石的访谈。",[827,1572,1573],{},"王石说万科的目标定位是健康丰盛，不是最大、第一，讲到了目标和结果，从急着登顶到坦然的体验过程，讲到了社会浮躁心态——恨不得把三十年的、几代人的事只争朝夕的干完看见，怎么都听过啊？段总说过：健康长久、敢为天下后、五十年后的任何消息都行、未必最好蛋肯定能到罗马、快即慢、平常心等等，不是一个理吗？",[827,1575,1576,1578],{},[836,1577,868],{}," 能够长久经营企业的人对企业的体会实际上都差不多，不信你把马云的东西拿来比较下，你会发现有很多东西其实也挺像的。不过，“不幸的家庭则各有各的不幸”。（2011-01-27）",[827,1580,1581],{},"网友：段总投资网易和万科都非常的经典，23日万科开股东大会时，有人问王总说段永平在买万科前是否和王总吃过一次饭，王总说是有这个事，我想请问段总：如果您没有和王石饭过这次饭，您会买万科吗？一般的散户是没有这样的机会的。",[827,1583,1584,1586],{},[836,1585,868],{}," 呵呵，约到王石也不容易，他整天在荒山野岭里跑啊跑的。我当时找王石就是想问问他知不知道有谁想卖法人股的，结果很失望，他说应该不会有的其实吃饭前我们已经买万科了，就是想看看还有没有更便宜的机会，贪心啊。当时万科的b股比a股贵，不然我们会多买很多的觉得安心的是，当时要多买的话，我非得卖网易不可。呵呵，后来网易也涨了不少。（2010-03-30）",[827,1588,1589],{},"网友：请问万科吸引您的地方在哪里？",[827,1591,1592,1594],{},[836,1593,868],{}," 呵呵，比较“青涩”。（2010-04-25）",[827,1596,1597],{},"网友：你的这个“青涩“是什么意思啊，我看到几处用到。应该不是字典里解释的那样吧！",[827,1599,1600,1602],{},[836,1601,868],{}," 万科的典故。（2010-04-26）",[827,1604,1605],{},"网友：网上找的..哈哈！谢谢段总！“我虽然快60岁了，但对于大事情的处理，还是显得很青涩。”王石昨天在股东大会上表示",[827,1607,1608,1610],{},[836,1609,868],{}," 呵呵，说明王石实在我的理解“青涩”表示不“圆滑”。（2010-04-26）",[827,1612,1613,1614,1616],{},"网友：您和",[836,1615,1507],{},"接触过吗？",[827,1618,1619,1621],{},[836,1620,868],{}," 没有很深入打交道的机会，有过几次聊天或吃饭的机会。对他印象还不错，有点“青涩”的味道。(2010-05-17)",[827,1623,1624,1625,1627],{},"那个对",[836,1626,1507],{},"的评语不是我说的，是他自己说的。不过我觉得“青涩”很难得，现代人普遍太圆滑了。(2010-06-06)",[827,1629,1630],{},"网友：能说说您对郁亮的看法吗？如果王石10分，那么郁亮你能打几分？",[827,1632,1633,1635],{},[836,1634,868],{}," 对郁亮不了解，但他能和王石共事那么久，不应该会差到哪里去的。（2010-07-10）",[827,1637,1638],{},"网友：您如果只根据对王石一人的了解，就重仓万科，似乎理由不足够？",[827,1640,1641,1643],{},[836,1642,868],{}," 不是仅仅因为王石就重仓，是因为当时所有的条件再加上王石这一条。王石最大的作用是让我相信我看到的万科的数据是真实的。有很多公司的数据短期看起来可能比万科还好，但不敢下手啊。（2010-07-24）",[827,1645,1646],{},"网友：王石是我最敬重的企业家。我认为万科是中国最伟大的企业。当然阿里巴巴也同样伟大。",[827,1648,1649,1651],{},[836,1650,868],{}," 我也很喜欢马云，觉得他应该算是中国最了不起的企业家了。我觉得王石是条汉子，也是我尊重的企业家。（2013-02-24）",[827,1653,1654],{},"网友：看看段总2005年买的万科，成本2快多，大牛逼呀！万科有几个企业能摸仿呀！2快多涨到50多元不含权，我的30W这样早就700W了。段总不了解中国的房价，他在中国的话他不会15元跑了会在25元跑，牛呀！比我这菜鸟强多了！",[827,1656,1657,1659],{},[836,1658,868],{}," 那时买的人都牛A，可留住的人不多，重仓的就更少了吧？（2010-08-10）",[827,1661,1662],{},"网友：知道您在04年买过万科，对于今天的万科您怎么看，最重要的是十年后的万科您怎么看？",[827,1664,1665,1667],{},[836,1666,868],{}," 我本身对房地产不熟，很久没看过万科和房地产这个行业了。目前中国人口老龄化问题似乎在加重中，不知道对房地产未来有什么影响。（2019-03-14）",[827,1669,1670,1671,1673],{},"网友：您认为一线城市的房地产符合",[836,1672,1202],{},"所说的“长坡厚雪”吗？",[827,1675,1676,1678],{},[836,1677,868],{}," 我不懂房地产，对这个行业普遍高举债感到困惑。(2019-04-22)",[827,1680,1681,1682,1685,1686,1689,1690,1692,1693,1695],{},"我现在更关注",[1001,1683,70],{"href":1684},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","和",[1001,1687,135],{"href":1688},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","。如果时光能够倒流，我大概不会买创维或者",[836,1691,1113],{},"，我觉得它们的",[1001,1694,70],{"href":1684},"都不够好。(2021-12-30)",[875,1697,1698],{"id":1698},"华侨城",[827,1700,1701],{},"网友：你了解华侨城这家公司吗？",[827,1703,1704,1706],{},[836,1705,838],{}," ：知道。住过东部华侨城，印象不太好。其他好像还行。整体管理水平有待提高。（2010-09-14）",[827,1708,1709],{},"网友：段总在哪说要研究华侨城的企业文化了？",[827,1711,1712,1714],{},[836,1713,838],{}," ：我说过。我觉得华侨城的business model还行，我只是想了解对这家公司长期而言，其企业文化会产生哪些影响。2011-03-05",[827,1716,1717],{},"网友：您认为东部华侨城的那个事故是在“把正确的事做对”的过程中犯的错？方便谈谈您对那个事故的想法吗？",[827,1719,1720,1722],{},[836,1721,838],{}," ：听说是为了省钱而犯的致命错误。从他们事后的处理看，应该是知道错在哪里了。我住过一次东部华侨城，就觉得那里的管理有大问题，比洲际酒店差一大截，没想到最后还会出这么大的问题。不过，我倒是在那以后才开始对这只股票有兴趣的。（2011-03-23）",[827,1724,1725],{},"网友：这两天上海和北京欢乐谷的项目都相继出现故障，还好没有人员伤亡。两起都是机械故障，不知道迪士尼相类似的故障几率是多少，还是华侨城管理水平不够？",[827,1727,1728,1730],{},[836,1729,838],{}," ：又出事故了？（2011-04-30）",[827,1732,1733],{},"网友M：身处一个连关系民生的猪肉牛奶都出问题的大环境，欢乐谷出一些事故是很难避免的，可以予以一定的理解吧。",[827,1735,1736,1738],{},[836,1737,838],{}," ：怎么理解？你坐飞机的时候也这么想？（2011-05-02）",[827,1740,1741],{},"网友：我记得您以前投资过华侨城，和10年前相比，华侨城的净利润增长了10倍，而且未来三年的20%以上的增长也非常确定，连续17年ROE不低于15%，从财务上看，是非常优秀的企业，可是股价还是和10年前差不多，是公司真的被低估还是所谓的投资陷阱呢？",[827,1743,1744,1746],{},[836,1745,838],{}," ：我很久以前确实买过，但后来觉得看不懂就退出来了，没有再跟踪过。如果按你的数据，那这个公司似乎确实不贵，但我还不太了解其商业模式，企业文化和公司治理结构。有空时可以再看看。（2019-04-21）",[875,1748,1749],{"id":1749},"星河湾",[827,1751,1752],{},"网友：【上海星河湾大幅降价 补偿老业主超6个亿！】据传，浦东、上海星河湾将以8-85折或更大优惠进行降价，并对老业主进行超6亿元的差价补偿。星河湾地产副总裁表示，本次礼献三节主要是为了回馈业主，补差价是对于业主是极其负责任的做法。",[827,1754,1755,1757],{},[836,1756,868],{}," 如果卖的时候有承诺就应该这么做。对房地产这么做是啥意思不太明白。如果是表示以后也会这么做就很好，不然就是噱头。噱头的东西未来都是要吃苦头的。（2011-12-17）",[827,1759,1760],{},"网友：没有承诺。星河湾是中国最高端的房地产品牌，擅长在普通的地段打造最高等级的产品，价格比附近的楼盘贵一倍以上都很常见。大道的意思是现在这么做实际上就对未来的业主隐含了承诺，如果仅仅当噱头未来会遭到更加强烈的反抗？假如你是这家企业的高管你会选择补偿过去的业主吗？",[827,1762,1763,1765,1766,1769],{},[836,1764,868],{}," 我会不会这么做取决于是否这么承诺过。在地产这个行当我没概念，直觉觉得不应该承诺，因为不应该把自己的",[1001,1767,212],{"href":1768},"\u002Fxinyu","压在无法控制的事情上。这个做法有一天会信誉破产的。当然，很多人并不在乎“有一天”这种事。（2011-12-17）",[875,1771,1772],{"id":1772},"东方园林",[827,1774,1775],{},"网友：在雪球找了一下，关注东方园林的有三人，且都只关注东方园林。现价70元，2011年市盈率20倍左右，2012年12倍左右。2010年通过的高管股权激励价65元，近期高管增持价85元，拟推的定向增发价76元。股本1.5亿，市值106亿，董事长最近说五年做到1000亿。",[827,1777,1778,1779,1781],{},"市场的担忧大概是两点，其一是市政园林工程的回款不如预期，地方政府无钱，只能拿土地来支付，公司被动进军地产，按地产股在估值；其二是定向增发有失败的可能，令本就难看的",[1001,1780,88],{"href":1178},"雪上加霜。上述担忧很有道理，但也许都已体现在股价走势中了。",[827,1783,1784,1787],{},[836,1785,1786],{},"段永平：凡是说要把市值做到多少钱的我都不碰。"," （2012-02-01）",[822,1789,1791],{"id":1790},"第六节-银行业与招商银行","第六节 银行业与招商银行",[875,1793,1794],{"id":1794},"银行业",[827,1796,1797],{},"网友：银行是很好挣钱的行业。如果给我个人牌照，我能很轻松地开一家银行分店，比这条街所有的店铺都好挣钱。",[827,1799,1800,1802],{},[836,1801,868],{}," 在中国的银行看起来好赚钱是因为牌照不是随便就能拿到的(如果真的最后能赚钱的话)，不然就会像美国一样，每隔十年八年就要倒掉一大批。(2011-01-19)",[827,1804,1805],{},[836,1806,1807],{},"我不懂银行。对我而言，即使是让我开银行我也不愿开的。怎么看银行都是靠借别人的钱做生意，而且生意也是借钱给别人，这两件事我都不知道该怎么做，所以不懂。(2012-07-29)",[827,1809,1810],{},"对银行业没啥新想法，依然觉得移动互联网会对传统银行造成冲击。也许再有10年就能看到变化了。(2019-08-17)",[827,1812,1813,1814,1005],{},"（段永平“银行是用margin的生意，任何时候我都不会重仓”的完整语境在他谈美国银行(BAC)的那段回答里，见",[1001,1815,1817],{"href":1816},"\u002Fwenda-invest-03#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%83%E8%8A%82-%E4%B8%8D%E6%87%82%E5%B0%B1%E6%94%BE%E5%BC%83%E6%88%91%E7%9C%8B%E4%B8%8D%E6%87%82%E7%9A%84%E9%82%A3%E4%BA%9B%E7%94%9F%E6%84%8F","不懂就放弃：我看不懂的那些生意",[875,1819,1820],{"id":1820},"招商银行",[827,1822,1823],{},"网友：我昨天买招行了。",[827,1825,1826],{},"理由：",[827,1828,1829],{},"1、价格低于我的持股成本了，有了机会补仓，为啥不买。",[827,1831,1832],{},"2、和大众的投资思维逆向操作，大家抛弃它，我看着不错，偏要买。",[827,1834,1835],{},"3、总股本215亿，净利润180亿，每股收益0.83元，昨天股价14.45，市盈率17.4，我觉得可以接受。请段大哥点拨一下。",[827,1837,1838,1840],{},[836,1839,868],{}," 不敢乱讲。3100亿市值。如果你有这么多钱，你愿意把招行买下来，那就说明你看明白了。其实我也想为我们国内的慈善基金会（有些钱暂时不花的）买点A股，一直还没下手呢。（2010-04-20）",[827,1842,1843],{},"网友：能否说说你眼中的招商银行？",[827,1845,1846,1848],{},[836,1847,868],{}," 不太了解。觉得打交道的招行的人都挺敬业的，但没有更多的了解。(2010-04-27)",[827,1850,1851],{},"网友：哪里不了解？",[827,1853,1854,1856],{},[836,1855,868],{}," 就是如何保证回本的问题。如果回不了本，利息是什么？事实上，有很多银行是因为做得大才活下来的，因为国家会救(一部分)。每十年八年一定来一次，确实不好懂。(2010-06-01)",[827,1858,1859],{},"网友：我是招行客户，也喜欢用招行。原本特别反感电话推销保险，07年招行的电话打过来，卖招商信诺的保险，我居然也接受了，招行的营销能力确实强，强在细节管理，因为回想起来，招行卖保险的MM，“话术”了得，环环相扣，这种客户心理捕捉的优势，可能也和信诺这家公司的传统有关。",[827,1861,1862],{},"但是我想如果从市值看，招行和腾讯同样是2000亿左右市值，哪个更有可能将市值翻到6000甚至1万亿？",[827,1864,1865,1867],{},[836,1866,868],{}," 我觉得腾讯可能性更大些。（2010-07-08）",[827,1869,1870],{},"网友：段兄，你如何看待招行的这个做法，是不是有点利润导向的味道？",[827,1872,1873],{},"东方早报：未来招行的利润增长点是什么？",[827,1875,1876],{},"马蔚华：招行将集中力量发展零售银行、中小企业贷款和非利息收入这三块业务，推进以低资本消耗的方式来发展业务，扩大低资本风险、高收益业务的规模，并且提高贷款的定价能力和非利息收入的比重。",[827,1878,1879],{},"零售业务目前占比约30%，未来还要提高；批发业务，最主要的是中小企业，目前占比约为50%，之后这个比重还要提高；中间收入，现状是该业务受到很多制约，收费业务增长还是非常艰难的过程。",[827,1881,1882],{},"所以，我觉得目前体制下，未来一段时期，5-10年，银行利差收入仍是银行业的主要利润来源。",[827,1884,1885],{},"东方早报：贷款必然要消耗资本，如今资本约束越来越严，银行结构如何调整？",[827,1887,1888],{},"马蔚华：调结构就需要不断的资本优化，比如招行零售业务，去年（房贷）按揭打7折，我们就减少这种贷款，增加经营性贷款，微小企业贷款。",[827,1890,1891],{},"批发业务中加大对中小企业的贷款，因为中小企业起码不会下浮利率。在非利差收入，我们会千方百计发展私人银行、财富管理业务等。",[827,1893,1894],{},"宗旨是在降低资本消耗前提下，取得资本效率最大化，必须在收益和风险间取得最佳平衡。",[827,1896,1897,1899,1900,1902],{},[836,1898,868],{}," 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