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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":431,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":16,"date":9,"description":433,"editor":1839,"extension":1840,"meta":1841,"navigation":1842,"order":434,"path":1843,"publishedAt":9,"seo":1844,"seoDescription":433,"seoTitle":1845,"slug":432,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":835,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":1846,"sourceStatus":1847,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":1848,"stem":1849,"summary":433,"tags":1850,"type":435,"updatedAt":1852,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"__hash__":1853,"_collection":1854},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-01.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":1830},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,847,857,862,865,876,882,888,891,897,900,906,909,914,917,926,936,941,944,947,956,959,964,967,971,974,979,982,987,990,995,998,1007,1010,1015,1018,1027,1030,1040,1043,1046,1053,1056,1061,1064,1070,1074,1077,1082,1085,1088,1095,1100,1103,1128,1131,1140,1148,1155,1158,1163,1172,1175,1184,1187,1192,1197,1200,1205,1208,1211,1214,1219,1222,1225,1228,1231,1236,1239,1244,1248,1257,1262,1267,1270,1275,1278,1283,1286,1291,1294,1299,1304,1313,1319,1331,1341,1346,1352,1357,1360,1365,1371,1376,1383,1388,1395,1400,1404,1407,1412,1415,1420,1426,1433,1436,1449,1452,1464,1479,1493,1499,1506,1509,1520,1523,1528,1531,1536,1550,1553,1559,1563,1566,1569,1582,1585,1600,1609,1623,1635,1640,1643,1648,1651,1656,1659,1664,1667,1670,1675,1684,1689,1692,1697,1700,1705,1711,1714,1719,1722,1725,1733,1736,1739,1742,1745,1748,1757,1766,1769,1772,1775,1778,1784,1787,1790,1793,1796,1799,1805,1821,1824,1827],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-买股票就是买公司","第一节 买股票就是买公司",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：投资大师的一句话也许就改变了我们小散户的一生，希望段总不吝赐教，感激不尽。",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平"," ：如果有这么一句话，可能就是“买股票就是买公司”。我曾对老巴讲我从他那里学到的最重要的一句话，然后他说，这正是他从格拉汉姆哪儿学到的最重要的一句话。（2010-05-23）",[827,838,839,841,842,846],{},[833,840,835],{}," ：对投资而言，很重要的一点是你能把上市公司看成非上市公司，然后",[843,844,222],"a",{"href":845},"\u002Flixing","地去想应该怎么做。（2012-11-11）",[827,848,849,852,853,856],{},[833,850,851],{},"段永平："," ",[833,854,855],{},"“买股票就是买公司”这句话会说的人非常多，但我几乎没见过真的骨子里真的理解并相信这句话的--我知道的人里面大概不超过5个（包括巴菲特和芒格在内）--当然，这是因为我知道的人很少的缘故。"," （2013-04-11）",[827,858,859,861],{},[833,860,851],{}," 其实老巴这么多年讲来讲去就是那一句话，买股票就是买公司（2014-03-03）",[827,863,864],{},"网友：段兄的这句话，我琢磨了一天，大家都在说茅台现在处于困难时期，我也这样认为，但经段兄这么一说，我才认真考虑茅台现在困难吗？茅台现在只是没有了加速度，但速度并没有变慢，仍在大把的赚钱而且手里有大把地现金，护城河没有变窄，这算困难吗？世界上没有如何一个事物可以一直有加速度。",[827,866,867,868,871,872,875],{},"老巴与段兄多次说过要站在企业所有人和",[843,869,88],{"href":870},"\u002Fxianjinliu","的角度考虑问题，我完全认可，但能否完全融到骨髓里，则不一定，当我笼统的认为茅台困难的时候，实际上我潜意识里还是用",[843,873,125],{"href":874},"\u002Ftouji","的思维惯性考虑这个问题。",[827,877,878,881],{},[833,879,880],{},"段永平：从企业所有人的角度考虑是关键！"," （2014-10-20）",[827,883,884,887],{},[833,885,886],{},"段永平：巴菲特自己说，在遇到格雷汉姆之前，他也和很多人一样，关注的是价钱、成交量等等。当我告诉他我从他那里学到的最重要的东西是“买股票就是买公司”时，他非常兴奋地说这正是我从我老师那学到的东西"," （“That's exact what I learnt from Graham.”）。",[827,889,890],{},"网友：什么样的人是价值投资者？",[827,892,893,896],{},[833,894,895],{},"段永平：我从一开始就是个价值投资者。我买股票时总是假设如果我有足够多的钱的话我是否会把整个公司买下来。"," （2010-03-27）",[827,898,899],{},"网友：价值投资者应当着重关注所投资公司的经营业绩和分享它的经营成果吗？但公司的经营成果与别人对公司股价产生的泡沫相比，往往有很大的差距。应如何取舍？",[827,901,902,905],{},[833,903,904],{},"段永平：投资最简单的定义就是如果你有足够的钱你就想在这个价钱买下整个公司，然后把他下市。"," 但只有很少钱的话就只能买一小部分了。你先想想这是啥意思。（2010-03-26）",[827,907,908],{},"网友C：难怪BBK不急着上市了。每个人每个时期都有不同的需求。将上了市的公司下市的目的是什么？有这样的先例吗？",[827,910,911,913],{},[833,912,851],{}," 呵呵，倒不是真的要下市。意思是如果这不是一家上市公司，这个价你买吗？如果你说不买，那就不是价值投资。（2010-03-26）",[827,915,916],{},"网友：那股票如何定价？假设当你全买下来的时候，你不去卖就不会有交易，没有交易股价怎么体现呢？所以证监法规要求上市公司必须是股份制是有道理的。交易就为了体现市场价格。",[827,918,919,921,922,925],{},[833,920,835],{}," ：不上市的公司有价值吗？",[833,923,924],{},"应该回到投资的最基本定义，就是：买股票就是买公司，和上不上市无关。"," （2010-04-26）",[827,927,928,931,932,935],{},[833,929,930],{},"段永平：你们只要把这公司想象成一家非上市公司，没有股价的变化就明白了。不过，绝大多数人大概做不到这点。客观讲，没办法将一家公司看成非上市公司来投资的话，最后多数是会亏钱的。"," （",[833,933,934],{},"2012-04-13"," ）",[827,937,938,940],{},[833,939,851],{}," 我开始做投资时已经40岁了，而且经营企业很多年，所以瞬间就明白了买股票就是买公司的道理。you must believe指的就是这个道理。有趣的是，我认识的人里面，我觉得骨子里绝对认同这一点的人我就见过两个--巴菲特和芒格。其他所有人（包括我本人在内）或多或少都受市场影响。（2012-04-27）",[827,942,943],{},"网友：格雷厄姆：以经营企业的态度做投资（读书笔记）",[827,945,946],{},"若以经营企业的态度看待投资，则投资是需要高度智慧的。许多精明的企业家在华尔街大显身手，完全漠视所谓的稳健投资原则，而这些却是使他们经营事业成功的原则，看到这种情形的确令人惊讶。然而，公司每一种有价证券最好先被视为特定企业的所有权或债权，如果有人试图通过证券的买卖获利，他便是...",[827,948,949,951,952,955],{},[833,950,851],{}," 买股票就是买公司指的就是这个意思。做过企业家的人本来可以有一个优势，那就是更容易看懂公司，更容易知道自己的能力圈在哪里。但我发现我认识的很多企业家对股市并没有任何认识，和普通人无异，同时大多数人是不碰股市的（因为他们认为自己不懂）。",[833,953,954],{},"不懂不碰的就是好的投资者，哪怕一点都不碰也是。"," （2011-09-07）",[827,957,958],{},"网友T：公司上不上市本质上有区别吗？倒是不上市很难买到他的股份。",[827,960,961,963],{},[833,962,851],{}," 就是因为本没有区别，哪来的市场恐惧呢？比如欧洲金融危机和我住的房子是没关系的，当然如果你是借钱买的可能就有关系了。（2011-10-25）",[827,965,966],{},"任俊杰：买股票就是买生意对你来说也许很简单，但对大多数人来说（我个人观察）几乎就是一个传说（大多言行不一）。一个有趣的问题。对有些人，是不懂生意；对有些人，大概似乎好像也不尽然。",[822,968,970],{"id":969},"第二节-投资和做企业没有区别","第二节 投资和做企业没有区别",[827,972,973],{},"网友：您在经历上与巴菲特有相似之处，有条件将公司的管理经验运用到实际的投资当中去。那么，您在完成这种跨越的时候有什么经验吗？",[827,975,976,978],{},[833,977,851],{}," 没觉得有什么本质区别。（2010-10-26）",[827,980,981],{},"网友：这里有个问题想请教下段大哥：从根本上来说，我是喜欢投资的，但也积累点企业运营经验，对于企业的发展还是可以贡献点微薄力量的，我从一个小投资者转变为所投企业的管理者，这二者应该不矛盾吧？毕竟，现今我对于该企业的发展及经营情况，了解得更透彻、更深入了。我这样做对于投资来说，有问题吗？",[827,983,984,986],{},[833,985,851],{}," 你去看看老巴是怎么说的就明白了。（2011-08-20）",[827,988,989],{},"网友：请教大道，巴菲特说过：我是个好投资家，因为我是一个企业家。我是个好企业家，因为我是投资家。我也问过方丈，企业家与投资家的区别，他说：“企业家成功一次就够了，而投资家需要成功多次。请教大道，您认为投资跟经营在具体方法论层面有啥区别没有？",[827,991,992,994],{},[833,993,851],{}," 没觉得投资和自己经营企业有什么大区别。不同的地方是投资时是你认同的人在经营。（2019-04-06）",[827,996,997],{},"网友：大道你已经财富自由了，推动你持续做投资的动力是什么？",[827,999,1000,1002,1003,1006],{},[833,1001,851],{}," 投资很有意思，是个非常好玩的游戏，我很喜欢(享受\u002Fenjoy)一-很多年前我问过",[833,1004,1005],{},"巴菲特","先生这个问题，这是他当时的回答(大致意思)。",[827,1008,1009],{},"网友：做投资是相对被动的事业，做实业相对主动。您放弃事业选择投资，是否后悔过？",[827,1011,1012,1014],{},[833,1013,851],{}," 我啥时候有过放弃事业选择投资的事情？我只是因为弟兄们比我能干而退休得比较早而已(不在一线了)。投资是个好玩的游戏，虽然我花的时间不多。(2019-03-16)",[827,1016,1017],{},"网友：投资是要对企业了解，但现实中许多企业家并不懂得投资股票，难道他们还不了解企业吗？",[827,1019,1020,1022,1023,1026],{},[833,1021,851],{}," 一般来讲，好的企业家都很容易变成好的",[843,1024,58],{"href":1025},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者，只要他们能悟到买股票就是买公司，悟到这一点非常不简单。",[827,1028,1029],{},"问：我们看到很多在资本市场做得非常好的操盘手，他们有时也会做实业，但是几乎都没有做成功。所以，很多人认为做资本赚钱太快，再去做实业的时候心态会很浮躁，他们更愿意在办公室里搞资本运作，而不愿意查看生产线。",[827,1031,1032,1035,1036,1039],{},[833,1033,1034],{},"段永平：所谓资本市场赚钱不会比做企业更快"," ，",[833,1037,1038],{},"这是个很简单的统计"," ，你不能用某一个人在资本市场上赚到钱了去跟所有的实业平均比例来计算，这肯定是不对的。就像你去赌场，虽然看见一些人眉飞色舞出来了，一辆大巴上坐50个人，只有1个人赚钱，但是剩下的人都不吭声的，不吭声的只是赔钱，赚钱的人肯定比亏的平均的钱多。",[827,1041,1042],{},"股市不是赌场，不会像赌场亏那么多，去赌场肯定是要亏的，不然就不会开赌场。我做投资和做实业不认为有什么本质的差别，本质是一样的。（2006-07-07）",[827,1044,1045],{},"网友：为什么您后面选择了做投资？我理解更多的金钱对您的意义已经不大，而且您说过企业要有利润之上的追求，我相信您在投资中应该也有利润之上的追求。做投资是单纯因为乐趣吗？",[827,1047,1048,852,1050],{},[833,1049,851],{},[833,1051,1052],{},"我怎么觉得我一直都是在做投资的呢？做投资和做企业其实没啥区别，差别只是在不在一线而已。投资的利润之上的追求可能体现在寻找那些有利润之上追求的企业上面。(2019-06-21)",[827,1054,1055],{},"问：现在很多人都谈你投资方面的成就，但是很少人知道你以前是做实业的，而且做实业也是非常成功的。你早期做实业这种经验对你现在或将来的投资会带来什么样非常大的帮助呢？",[827,1057,1058,1060],{},[833,1059,851],{}," 我个人认为，你要投资跟做一个企业是一样的。对它的帮助非常巨大的地方是，因为我是做企业出身的，有很多做企业的经验，比较容易判断一个企业是不是一个不好的企业。如果有一个公司做一些违背企业常理的事情，如果这个企业不讲信用，这个公司就不是一个好公司，这种公司我就不会做长线，不会投资它。（2006-07-07）",[827,1062,1063],{},"网友：段总当年您创立步步高初时，花那么多钱做广告迅速开拓市场，我感觉有些冒险，但也觉得当时可能是最好的选择，您能讲讲当年成败得失吗？",[827,1065,1066,1069],{},[833,1067,1068],{},"段永平：我们做自己懂的东西，为什么你说是冒险呢？"," 和我买网易或者苹果没区别，可不知道为什么老是有人追着问为什么要冒那个险。用一块钱去买两块钱的东西不叫冒险，叫理性，只要记得不用margin就行。（2012-02-02）",[822,1071,1073],{"id":1072},"第三节-价值投资的定义与源流","第三节 价值投资的定义与源流",[827,1075,1076],{},"巴菲特在格雷厄姆的基础上形成了自己更简单的投资策略，只有一句话：“我们的投资理念非常简单，真正伟大的投资理念常常用简单的一句话就能概括。我们寻找的是一个具有持续竞争优势并且由一群既能干又全心全意为股东服务的人来管理的企业。当发现具备这些特征的企业而且我们又能以合理的价格购买时，我们几乎不可能出错。”",[827,1078,1079,1081],{},[833,1080,851],{}," 其实，他这一句概括的还是格雷厄姆的三点：好业务、好管理、好价格。就是用相对于内在价值来说相当便宜的价格买入业务一流而且管理一流的优秀上市公司的股票。",[827,1083,1084],{},"公司好坏，比较容易分析，好人往往是大家公认的，好公司也往往是大家公认的。但你买入时支付的股价是便宜还是太贵，分析起来就难多了。",[827,1086,1087],{},"这么简单，为什么大部分人不做价值投资呢？",[827,1089,1090,1091,1094],{},"芒格主义：",[833,1092,1093],{},"最重要的，是要把股票看作对于企业的一小片所有权，以企业的竞争优势来判断内在的价值。要寻找未来折现的现金利润比你支付的股价高的机会。这是很基础的，你得明白概率，只有当你赢的概率更大的时候才去下赌注。","（2012-06-26）",[827,1096,1097,1099],{},[833,1098,851],{}," 很稀饭这句。（2012-06-26）",[827,1101,1102],{},"博文：《引用巴菲特：格雷厄姆的投资理念非常量化更适合小规模投资》（2015-01-18）",[827,1104,1105,1107,1108,1111,1112,1115,1116,1118,1119,1121,1122,1124,1125,1127],{},[833,1106,1005],{},"曾说过，他的投资理念85%来自",[833,1109,1110],{},"格雷厄姆","，15%来自",[833,1113,1114],{},"费雪","。",[833,1117,1005],{},"被问及现在是否如此，他表示：",[833,1120,1110],{},"的投资理念非常量化，教你如何寻找廉价股票，依然适用于当前市场，但是它更适合小规模投资。随着",[833,1123,1005],{},"掌管资金的增加，他越来越多地采用",[833,1126,1114],{},"的投资理念：寻找优质企业，而不是一味地追求廉价企业。",[827,1129,1130],{},"比如投资伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路（Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad）。",[827,1132,1133,1134,1136,1137,1139],{},"网友：",[833,1135,1005],{},"的方法是很好，我觉得他比较适合大资金操作，如果是一般人买个几万块钱的股票，应该很难等上几年时间，好像意义也不大。我想这就是大部分人虽然认同",[833,1138,1005],{},"的方法，但是却做不到的原因。",[827,1141,1142,1144,1145,1147],{},[833,1143,851],{}," 其实",[833,1146,1005],{},"的东西更适合小投资者。你先看看再下结论。大概先看一年，也许一天就够（2010-03-27）",[827,1149,1150,1151,1154],{},"网友：这两天看又了一下巴菲特1984年为《证券分析》出版15年写的文章。",[833,1152,1153],{},"他说从来没见过一个人花10年的时间转到价值投资这条路上来。懂了就是立刻懂了。"," 我觉得真明白了的人无论有什么条件限制都会立刻开始动手做了。他后面给了9个例子非常好，但仔细读表里内容你会发现除了个退休基金时间较短，只有巴菲特自己在很长的时间里从来没亏过钱！这真的太厉害了！",[827,1156,1157],{},"从他的文笔和他准备这个短文花的心思你就能感到巴菲特真的多么出色，多么值得好好向他学习。",[827,1159,1160,1162],{},[833,1161,851],{}," 呵呵，老巴的东西就是好。（2010-03-27）",[827,1164,1165,1167,1168,1171],{},[833,1166,835],{}," ：",[833,1169,1170],{},"如果有谁还不太理解什么叫价值投资，看看巴菲特1984年写的这篇东西或许会很有帮助。哈哈，发现有人给翻译过来了，真是非常谢谢啊。"," （2010-04-02）",[827,1173,1174],{},"网友：愿透过这篇文章，能明白点什么叫价值投资。",[827,1176,1177,1179,1180,1183],{},[833,1178,835],{}," ：这篇文章讲的实际上是个概率事件，工科出身的人可能容易懂。我理解的大意就是，",[833,1181,1182],{},"长期来看价值投资者赚到钱其实不是运气！"," （2010-04-03）",[827,1185,1186],{},"网友：这篇文章我看了好几遍，发现有点矛盾．巴菲特说股票的市价是不合理的，和实际的价值是有偏差的．那么这里的不合理是短期还是长期的，如果是长期的话，无论它的价值是好还是坏，那么一个公司的实际价值不是永远没办法在股市上得到体现？那我们这些投资者怎么能从股市上获利呢？",[827,1188,1189,1191],{},[833,1190,835],{}," ：我觉得巴菲特说的是时点问题。就是说在某个时点，股价总是不合理的，可能高了，也可能低了。有点像马克思说的“价格总是围绕价值上下波动”。我比较喜欢马克思说的这句话。",[827,1193,1194,1183],{},[833,1195,1196],{},"你如果能想想一个非上市公司是否有价值（或价值是否能体现）可能就能明白你想问的问题。",[827,1198,1199],{},"网友：段总认为巴菲特的个人投资理念有什么独到之处，虽然价值投资的理念很简单，世界上也有很多人在做价值投资，但是能做到巴菲特这样的成就不多，巴菲特肯定有其过人之处吧？您是接触过他的，分享一下吧。",[827,1201,1202,1204],{},[833,1203,835],{}," ：我觉得他就是坚持的好。（2010-04-06）",[827,1206,1207],{},"网友：一直以来，大家都感觉华尔街很神秘，以为这里是点石成金的地方，其实说穿了，我们和普通的作坊是一样的，也是通过采购产品，并增加其附加值来谋取利益的。托尼打开了话匣子。“从大的方面讲，我们分两块业务，我们有专人去收购被价值低估或者具有成长性的资产，然后通过重组，资产证券化等包装手段卖给投资人，并从中获取高额利润。",[827,1209,1210],{},"”“当然这说的很简单，具体操作起来还有很多细分，比如有专门负责投资管理和资产管理的人去评估被价值低估或具有高增长潜力的业务。现在很流行的PE（Private Equity私人股权投资）就是属于这个范畴。PE通过投资有潜力的公司并最终通过公司上市、卖给其他投资者等手段实现退出，投资人也能从中获得非常高的收益。",[827,1212,1213],{},"当然收益率取决于PE介入的阶段，越早介入，风险越大，收益也越高。”",[827,1215,1216,1218],{},[833,1217,835],{}," ：个人观点：只有当你不再觉得“华尔街”神秘的时候，你才可能成为一个价值投资者。（2010-05-15）",[827,1220,1221],{},"网友：做价值投资赚的是那些非理性赌徒的钱，不知这个理解是否对？",[827,1223,1224],{},"大道：投资赚的本来只是企业成长的钱（如果企业不上市的话），但因为股市里有很多赌徒，所以赚的是企业成长的钱+赌徒的钱。（2026-08-18）",[827,1226,1227],{},"right business + right people +right price + time = good result (对的生意+对的人+对的价格+时间=好结果)。虽然这个不是投资的充分公式，但好结果却是个比较大概率的事件。(2013-04-19)",[827,1229,1230],{},"网友：即某个人因为在抛硬币比赛中大获全胜而著书立说并在全国各地做巡回演讲，向人们讲授其在抛硬币大赛中获胜的秘诀！而媒体也会从各个超乎人们想象的貌似相关联的事物中寻找导致其获胜的蛛丝马迹。",[827,1232,1233,1235],{},[833,1234,835],{}," ：你好像没看懂巴菲特讲的神马吧？老巴讲的是如果全美国的人都来参加一个抛硬币比赛，每一次淘汰50%的人，结果发现最后剩下的40个赢家里有20多个人来自于同一个村庄，那这个村庄的人一定是有点办法的或者说这个抛硬币其实不是随机的。",[827,1237,1238],{},"因为老有人说老巴投资做得好不过是因为运气好而已（现在好像还有人这么说），于是老巴就编了这个故事来说明一下：在这个市场里价值投资者只是占了很小的一个比例，但最后的赢家却占了大比例，这肯定不是因为运气。（2011-04-01）\n网友：请教段大哥一个问题：股票价值投资者对社会整体创造财富有帮助吗？或者说，对比投机者，股票投资者对社会的贡献更大一些？",[827,1240,1241,1243],{},[833,1242,851],{}," 如果没有股市，很多好企业就根本无法开始。没有价值投资者，就根本没有股市。（2010-08-14）",[822,1245,1247],{"id":1246},"第四节-只有这一条路没有捷径","第四节 只有这一条路：没有捷径",[827,1249,1250,1256],{},[833,1251,1252,1253,1255],{},"其实",[843,1254,58],{"href":1025},"是所谓投资的唯一一条路，不存在什么捷径。不存在什么窍门。如果你想走轻松的路，我保证：它比艰难的路更长更痛苦"," 。（2019-07-30）",[827,1258,1259,1260,1115],{},"网友：现在有一个比较好玩的说法是，A股不适合",[843,1261,58],{"href":1025},[827,1263,1264,1266],{},[833,1265,851],{}," 这个说法一直都有啊，A股是历史比较短的说法了。突然想起来其实美国很多很多年前也有很多特异功能的事。（2011-09-06）",[827,1268,1269],{},"网友：记得你做客波士堂的时候曾经表示：中国没有巴菲特。而在最近的访谈中你谈到：中国已经有了一些价值投资者。哪些事情使你对中国的股民有了新的认识呢？",[827,1271,1272,1274],{},[833,1273,835],{}," ：我还是认为现在的中国没有巴菲特。我一直认为中国有很多价值投资者的。其实大部分投资者或多或少都是价值投资者来着，至少很多人是这么说也是很想这么做的。（2010-03-30）",[827,1276,1277],{},"网友：您认为索罗斯是不是投资？希望你不要回答，我只懂巴菲特，不知道索罗斯，他们玩的不是一个游戏没有可比性。",[827,1279,1280,1282],{},[833,1281,835],{}," ：呵呵，其实我知道的东西少的可怜。我就知道巴菲特这条路很好，肯定可以到罗马，可老是有一堆朋友问我索罗斯那条怎么样，还不许我说我不知道。我是真的不知道。（2010-03-31）",[827,1284,1285],{},"网友：股票市场是否遵循丛林法则？残酷的优胜劣败，请段总谈谈好吗？",[827,1287,1288,1290],{},[833,1289,851],{}," 不懂。懂价值投资就会立于不败之地。（2010-05-13）",[827,1292,1293],{},"网友S：我不赞同，老巴也没有自己创立过做实业的公司，限定自己投资的范围，用常识来判断，用思考来定义就可以了。",[827,1295,1296,1298],{},[833,1297,851],{}," 你不认为那是最好的办法的意思是什么？难道还有更好的办法？（2012-05-11）",[827,1300,1133,1301,1303],{},[833,1302,1005],{},"理论在A股最无用。",[827,1305,1306,1308,1309,1312],{},[833,1307,851],{}," 一直重仓拿着",[833,1310,1311],{},"茅台","的人们可不这么认为。（2019-06-16）",[827,1314,1315,1316,1318],{},"认为A股只是博傻的想法是大错特错的。其实在A股中真正最后赚到大钱的还是那些",[843,1317,58],{"href":1025},"者，和别的任何市场一样。不要被表面的那些东西所迷惑，长期而言没价值的股票是不被“填权”的，填了也会回归本原。A股和美股的差别可能是系统风险大一些而已。",[827,1320,1321,1322,1324,1325,1327,1328,1330],{},"华人和其他人里面100%真正做",[843,1323,58],{"href":1025},"的人本来就不多。但其实大多数投资人或多或少都是",[843,1326,58],{"href":1025},"者，经常能看到深一脚浅一脚的",[843,1329,58],{"href":1025},"者，可能包括我自己在内。",[827,1332,1333,1334,1337,1338,1115],{},"网友：我做到了，持有",[833,1335,1336],{},"苹果","10年。在这过程中，越来越理解",[843,1339,12],{"href":1340},"\u002Fbenfen",[827,1342,1343,1345],{},[833,1344,851],{}," 哈，见过大道不走小路。",[827,1347,1348,1349,1351],{},"网友：我怎么觉得就只有一条且是最好的路了。投资的本质或者说信仰：买股票就是买公司，买公司就是买其未来自由",[843,1350,88],{"href":870},"折现。其他路没了。",[827,1353,1354,1356],{},[833,1355,851],{}," 我说这句话的潜台词就是我认为其他的路没人可以证明肯定能到，反过来看其实就只有这条路了。（2015-09-08）",[827,1358,1359],{},"网友：我们许多人（包括我自己）学价值投资的次序是错了，而又不自知，所以进步很慢，或者半途而废。差不多近两年来，慢慢地认识到价值投资的妙处，才逐步抛弃其他思路……事实上，我已经走了很多弯路。",[827,1361,1362,1364],{},[833,1363,851],{}," 呵呵，其实你没走弯路，因为那根本就不是路。（2012-01-31）",[827,1366,1133,1367,1370],{},[833,1368,1369],{},"个人理解：段总借丘吉尔的这句名言来释投资之道。投资就是价值投资，价值投资就是做正确的事情。这句话用在投资上也可以改说成“除了我们已经尝试过的其他投资方法之外，价值投资是最坏的了。”意思是说，价值投资是在试了各种其它投资办法之后不得不接受的最不差的一个，这和段总博客的标题“条条道路都可能通罗马，这里是一条未必最好但肯定能到的”的思想是一致的"," 。",[827,1372,1373,1375],{},[833,1374,851],{}," 我想说的是：条条道路通罗马，这条未必是最好但是肯定能到的一条。未必是最好的说法借鉴了丘吉尔的说法。（2013-02-02）",[827,1377,1378,1379,1382],{},"网友：段总关于您的留言的回复让我想了好一会。“",[833,1380,1381],{},"条条道路都可能通罗马，这里是一条未必最好但肯定能到的。"," ”。（2013-04-03）",[827,1384,1385],{},[833,1386,1387],{},"段永平：其实这句话的意思和丘吉尔那句话差不多。可惜很多人都是非要试过别的路才会醒悟过来的，当然，大部分人会一直寻找捷径的。",[827,1389,1390,1167,1392],{},[833,1391,835],{},[833,1393,1394],{},"其实价值投资是所谓投资的唯一一条路，不然你投的是什么？",[827,1396,1397,1399],{},[833,1398,851],{}," 你能记住这句话说明你有悟性，有悟性不去悟就可惜了。其实那句话的意思是投资只有价值投资一条路。",[822,1401,1403],{"id":1402},"第五节-信仰常识与-must-believe","第五节 信仰、常识与 must believe",[827,1405,1406],{},"网友：大道，您有信仰吗？",[827,1408,1409,1411],{},[833,1410,851],{}," 当然有信仰，比如买股票就是买公司。",[827,1413,1414],{},"网友：我指的是宗教之类的。",[827,1416,1417,1419],{},[833,1418,851],{}," 我明白你说的是什么，现在轮到你来明白我说啥了哈。",[827,1421,1422,1423,1115],{},"网友：大道的“宗教”信仰就是",[843,1424,23],{"href":1425},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing",[827,1427,1428,1430,1431,1115],{},[833,1429,851],{}," 是的，所谓信仰就是要",[843,1432,23],{"href":1425},[827,1434,1435],{},"网友：段总讲的有大道理！巴菲特的价值投资根本就是一种信仰：一种要实现价值投资信念（又称理念）的持久行动的过程！",[827,1437,1438,1440,1441,1444,1445,1448],{},[833,1439,851],{}," 价值投资根本就不是信仰的问题！当你想全部买下一个你想买的公司时，难道会是由信仰决定的？",[833,1442,1443],{},"买股票就是买公司"," ，不是信仰的问题。",[833,1446,1447],{},"这一关不过，千万别说自己是价值投资者"," 。（2011-05-09）",[827,1450,1451],{},"网友：您有支持您人生的信仰吗？",[827,1453,1454,1456,1457,1460,1461,1115],{},[833,1455,851],{}," 我是有信仰的，但我没有宗教，我相信有道理的东西。以投资为例，我只要知道一个公司长远能赚钱，它的股价一定能跟上，所以就能忽略市场短期的波动。如果你没有这种信仰，就可能每天都去看今天有什么消息，股票会涨还是会掉。但如果你懂了一个公司，不管怎么涨跌，它还是那家公司。所以需要理解它的",[843,1458,135],{"href":1459},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","和",[833,1462,1463],{},"生意模式",[827,1465,1133,1466,1469,1470,1472,1473,1475,1476,1478],{},[833,1467,1468],{},"比尔·盖茨","说",[833,1471,1005],{},"有很强烈的宗教信仰感，这让我挺意外的。我记得您说您对宗教的态度和",[833,1474,1005],{},"差不多，您了解的",[833,1477,1005],{},"是怎样的？",[827,1480,1481,1483,1484,1486,1487,1460,1489,1492],{},[833,1482,851],{}," 我理解的“宗教”大概就是信仰的意思，就是说心里有些“必须相信”的东西。我的宗教态度确实和",[833,1485,1005],{},"一样，我们都信仰他对投资的理解一-买股票就是买公司。买股票就是买公司这句话会说的人非常多，但我几乎没见过骨子里真的理解并相信这句话的-我知道的人里面大概不超过5个(包括",[833,1488,1005],{},[833,1490,1491],{},"芒格","在内)一当然，这是因为我知道的人很少的缘故。",[827,1494,1495,1496,1498],{},"网友：我特别想知道",[833,1497,1005],{},"给大道说的悄悄话是什么内容？",[827,1500,1501,852,1503],{},[833,1502,851],{},[833,1504,1505],{},"就是《功夫熊猫》里面那句话，阿宝老爸的秘方。",[827,1507,1508],{},"网友：都说尊重常识，请举个常识的例子？",[827,1510,1511,1513,1514,1115],{},[833,1512,851],{}," 我应该没这么说过，因为常识的定义不是很清楚，是你的常识、我的常识，还是大家的共识？",[833,1515,1516,1519],{},[843,1517,70],{"href":1518},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","好的企业股价最终会上来，这是我的常识，但同意的人可能连10%都不到，不然不会那么多人在投资上赚不到钱的",[827,1521,1522],{},"网友：投资是否有信仰？",[827,1524,1525,1527],{},[833,1526,851],{}," 投资的信仰指的是：相信长期而言股市是称重机，对没有信仰的人而言，股市永远是投票器。（2013-05-17）",[827,1529,1530],{},"网友：我没有信仰，更糟糕的是我不知道如何改变。",[827,1532,1533,1535],{},[833,1534,851],{}," 你必须相信。(You must believe.)---乌龟大师",[827,1537,1538,1539,1542,1543,1546,1547,935],{},"要相信的是：做对的事情最后会有好结果，或者说做错的事情最后会有大麻烦。至于",[843,1540,28],{"href":1541},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","则是个过程，有时候快有时候慢，需要投资者",[843,1544,197],{"href":1545},"\u002Fnaixin","等待。（",[833,1548,1549],{},"2012-05-20",[827,1551,1552],{},"网友：您怎么看“常识”在价投中的重要性？感觉常识是您常常说的“道”当中很重要的一部分，该怎么提高“常识”？",[827,1554,1555,1556,1558],{},"大道：投资中的“常识”就是“公司其实只有一个买家，那就是公司自己”。也可以说，“买股票就是买公司，就是买公司的未来",[843,1557,88],{"href":870},"折现”。（2026-06-24）",[822,1560,1562],{"id":1561},"第六节-好公司比好价格重要与满仓主义","第六节 好公司比好价格重要与满仓主义",[827,1564,1565],{},"就投资而言，好公司最重要。(2015-11-01)",[827,1567,1568],{},"网友：您说“这些年花在投资上的时间不多，但投资水平有很大长进”，具体是什么意思？",[827,1570,1571,852,1573,1463,1576],{},[833,1572,851],{},[833,1574,1575],{},"就是不再受市场影响，更加坚信要买那些有好的",[833,1577,1578,1579,1581],{},"和好的",[843,1580,135],{"href":1459},"的好公司。(2019-07-28)",[827,1583,1584],{},"网友：感觉实体企业的寒冬真的来了！",[827,1586,1587,1589,1590,1592,1593,1595,1596,1599],{},[833,1588,851],{}," 谁的冬天？关于冬天的说法，",[833,1591,1311],{},"肯定是不同意的，我们也不太同意，有类似观点的应该还有很多家企业，比如",[833,1594,1336],{},"、",[833,1597,1598],{},"谷歌","…(2016-02-23)",[827,1601,1602,1603,1605,1606,1608],{},"网友：你说过好公司价格不太重要，过得去就行，时间到了什么都会有的。请问背后的逻辑是什么？能以",[833,1604,1336],{},"或",[833,1607,1311],{},"为例子讲讲吗？",[827,1610,1611,1613,1614,1616,1617,1619,1620,1622],{},[833,1612,851],{}," 用10年看就明白了。今天你看",[833,1615,1311],{},"，你觉得120元买的和180元买的有多大区别？当然，你如果知道",[833,1618,1311],{},"会到120元则不一样。很久以前我说过，",[833,1621,1336],{},"400美元很便宜，500美元也很便宜，到600美元时我依然说还是很便宜(在1\u002F7之前)，现在看是不是就容易明白了？(2019-09-12)",[827,1624,1625,1626,1628,1629,1631,1632,1634],{},"网友：大道老师好，我现在重仓",[833,1627,1311],{},"，觉得",[833,1630,1311],{},"未来10年涨个1-2倍应该是大概率的事情，但有时候又会想如果买其他市值相对小点的公司，可能未来10年涨个5-10倍会更容易，毕竟",[833,1633,1311],{},"的市值大基数大，涨起来没那么容易，我这是心浮气躁了吗，是不是违背了您说的慢即是快的道理？请指点一二，谢谢。",[827,1636,1637,1639],{},[833,1638,851],{}," 看看你过去的业绩你就明白了？（2025-10-06）",[827,1641,1642],{},"网友：“坚守”好像是在说抱着印钞机感觉很难受的样子。",[827,1644,1645,1647],{},[833,1646,851],{}," 那么重，确实会难受的。其实每个公司最后都会成为那个它本该成为的公司，股价也是。没有长期的莫名其妙的股价，但短期会有。",[827,1649,1650],{},"网友：想想东方甄选自营品10年20年后的样子……是不是很有可能成为中国的线上山姆、开市客？",[827,1652,1653,1655],{},[833,1654,851],{}," 想象力丰富一般不是坏事，但对投资而言则未必是好事。(2024-03-14)",[827,1657,1658],{},"好公司不怕萧条，大萧条来的时候好公司的额外优势更大，公司价值所代表的实际购买力反而会相对上升。所以，投资要聚焦在找好公司上面。(2019-09-19)",[827,1660,1661],{},[833,1662,1663],{},"我喜欢孙正义说过的一句话：越是迷惘的时候，越是要往远处看。任何时候好公司都是值得买的，尤其是大环境那个啥的时候。(2024-10-16)",[827,1665,1666],{},"从投资的角度讲，找到好公司比啥都重要。在大家有“危机”的时候，好公司往往能将“危机”简化为“机”的。(2018-09-05)",[827,1668,1669],{},"网友：不要亏钱啊！确定性是做投资最难得的东西，我觉得大道这一句话就给你点透了，剩下的就看你能不能get了。",[827,1671,1672,1674],{},[833,1673,851],{}," 你会成为你本该成为的那个人的。（2025-07-20）",[827,1676,1677,1678,1680,1681,1683],{},"网友：前期已经投入70万买",[833,1679,1311],{},"，现在再把50万理财保险拿出来买",[833,1682,1311],{},"，您觉得怎么样？",[827,1685,1686,1688],{},[833,1687,851],{}," 你都买了保险，你肯定比我懂保险，你自己决定吧。我只买国家要求必须买的保险（比如车险、医疗保险等等），绝对不会去为了理财买保险。固定收入的东西长期是一定输给通胀的。（2025-09-12）",[827,1690,1691],{},"网友：从投资的角度讲，发生的概率小，就不会投入。所以段总不会买房子保险。",[827,1693,1694,1696],{},[833,1695,851],{}," 至少会买umbrella 保险。保险有时候有个很重要的功能，就是有事的时候是保险公司出面帮你处理，不然时间成本太高。（2025-9-14）",[827,1698,1699],{},"网友：10年思维不契合大多数人从小形成的思维习惯、经验习惯、心理习惯。绝大多数人都是贪婪和短视的吧。",[827,1701,1702,1704],{},[833,1703,851],{}," 每个人最后都会成为他本该成为的那个人的，这里当然包括“绝大多数人”。",[827,1706,1707,1708,1710],{},"网友：面对经济危机或者股票估值过高，您是选择像",[833,1709,1005],{},"一样持有大量现金，还是依然选择好公司满仓？",[827,1712,1713],{},"大道：股价严重高估的时候我会想拿着现金的，虽然我是个满仓主义者。（2026-04-03）",[827,1715,1133,1716,1718],{},[833,1717,1005],{},"曾经说过不要总是挥棒，请问您是怎么做到克制住自己挥棒欲望的？",[827,1720,1721],{},"大道：我是个满仓主义者。顺便再解释一下什么是满仓主义。满仓主义就是骨子里明白闲钱存银行是一定会输给通胀的，所以要学会投资，要找到好公司拿着。（2026-04-21）",[827,1723,1724],{},"网友：阿段，你说现在已经不追求好价格了，是因为什么？蛮好奇这个看法的本质是什么。",[827,1726,1727,1728,1460,1730,1732],{},"大道：我什么时候说过不追求好价格了？我说的大概是不太强调好价格了，因为要更强调",[843,1729,70],{"href":1518},[843,1731,135],{"href":1459},"。价格合适就好。这不是你追高的理由哈，合适的价格永远都是重要的。（2026-06-24）",[827,1734,1735],{},"网友：大道，您好！我有一个问题，想请教一下您，我现在没有钱买标普500，我现在在读研，可是我会担心两年后，就不是投资的好时期了，标普500是值得长期投资的东西吗？",[827,1737,1738],{},"大道：没钱的时候着急有用吗？那叫干着急啊！投资机会一直都在，陷阱也都在，看你到时愿意选哪个了。（2026-08-08）",[827,1740,1741],{},"大道：没有金额的比例是没有意义的。我到中山时全副身家只有5块钱，那我的这些年复合增长率谁能敌？（2026-08-15）",[827,1743,1744],{},"网友：段永平在2013年5月份讲了一番话：“记得很久以前在学校碰到一个老师问，自己不懂投资但需要管理自己的小小财富怎么办。我说你就都交给巴菲特吧，全部买上巴菲特的股票，怎么着都会比自己管好的，还不用操心。”13年的时间过去了，如果当初那位老师照着做，现在会是什么情况？",[827,1746,1747],{},"大道（转AI回答）：2013年伯克希尔·哈撒韦 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