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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":438,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":21,"date":9,"description":440,"editor":2666,"extension":2667,"meta":2668,"navigation":2669,"order":441,"path":2670,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2671,"seoDescription":440,"seoTitle":2672,"slug":439,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":855,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2673,"sourceStatus":2674,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2675,"stem":2676,"summary":440,"tags":2677,"type":435,"updatedAt":2681,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"__hash__":2682,"_collection":2683},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-02.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2656},"minimark",[821,826,830,848,851,861,864,867,870,873,876,882,885,891,894,899,907,913,919,922,925,935,941,944,947,950,953,956,959,962,967,973,979,982,985,990,995,999,1010,1013,1019,1022,1025,1028,1031,1034,1037,1040,1043,1046,1049,1052,1055,1058,1061,1064,1067,1070,1073,1076,1079,1082,1085,1088,1091,1094,1101,1104,1107,1110,1113,1116,1119,1122,1125,1128,1131,1138,1141,1144,1147,1150,1153,1159,1170,1176,1182,1187,1194,1198,1204,1215,1218,1226,1235,1239,1242,1251,1257,1262,1269,1278,1281,1286,1291,1294,1299,1304,1307,1310,1315,1320,1323,1328,1331,1336,1339,1344,1351,1359,1362,1367,1371,1379,1392,1395,1398,1403,1406,1409,1412,1420,1425,1433,1439,1442,1447,1450,1453,1458,1461,1466,1471,1476,1479,1484,1487,1505,1508,1511,1515,1518,1523,1526,1531,1534,1537,1545,1548,1551,1556,1559,1562,1567,1570,1575,1578,1583,1588,1593,1596,1601,1604,1609,1612,1617,1622,1628,1638,1643,1646,1651,1654,1657,1662,1665,1670,1673,1678,1687,1695,1698,1706,1709,1712,1718,1733,1744,1749,1767,1772,1781,1784,1790,1793,1798,1801,1804,1807,1810,1813,1816,1819,1822,1825,1828,1831,1836,1839,1842,1845,1848,1853,1858,1861,1864,1868,1871,1876,1886,1895,1901,1904,1913,1916,1919,1922,1927,1930,1939,1945,1954,1962,1965,1971,1977,1982,1985,1990,1993,2001,2004,2010,2013,2021,2024,2030,2033,2038,2041,2046,2049,2054,2057,2065,2068,2073,2076,2081,2084,2089,2094,2097,2100,2103,2108,2111,2114,2117,2120,2129,2132,2135,2142,2149,2152,2157,2161,2164,2169,2172,2181,2184,2189,2192,2198,2201,2206,2209,2214,2217,2220,2223,2226,2229,2232,2237,2240,2245,2248,2253,2258,2261,2266,2269,2272,2277,2280,2285,2288,2297,2300,2303,2308,2311,2320,2325,2328,2333,2336,2341,2344,2349,2352,2355,2358,2365,2375,2378,2383,2386,2391,2394,2399,2402,2407,2412,2418,2426,2431,2434,2437,2440,2445,2448,2451,2456,2459,2464,2467,2473,2476,2481,2484,2487,2490,2495,2498,2505,2508,2511,2514,2517,2520,2617,2627,2630,2633,2638,2641,2644,2647,2650,2653],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-简单在哪不容易在哪","第一节 简单在哪，不容易在哪",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：巴菲特把投资说得很简单，而芒格却说投资需要很多知识，把投资说得很深奥。听他说看的书有一吨重。段大哥您怎么样认为呢？",[827,831,832,836,837,840,841,840,844,847],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 他们说的都很对，角度不同。我有时也这么说：",[833,838,839],{},"投资很简单，不懂不做"," 。",[833,842,843],{},"但要能搞懂企业就算看一吨的书也不一定行",[833,845,846],{},"投资简单但不容易！"," （2010-05-04）",[827,849,850],{},"网友：价值投资真的难啊，买股票就是买公司，问题是怎样确定这家企业的竞争优势，而且更重要的是确定这种优势的持续性。",[827,852,853,856,857,860],{},[833,854,855],{},"段永平"," ：",[833,858,859],{},"如果你觉得价值投资难的话，意思大概就是你有更容易的赚钱办法？逻辑上（统计上）来讲，价值投资是最容易赚钱的办法，因为别的办法只会更难。"," （2011-05-12）",[827,862,863],{},"网友：对我来说，价值投资难在3方面：",[827,865,866],{},"第一个是标的的选择。如何从众多的企业中找到适合投资的企业，很难。",[827,868,869],{},"第二个是理解企业。价值投资强调只投资自己懂的企业，要懂一个企业，尤其是要预测到这个企业未来5到10年的发展，很难。",[827,871,872],{},"第三个是安全边际的确定。市场绝大部分时候是有效的，价格跌到了价值以下，这本身就不常见，而且要跌到多少才算安全呢？这个似乎没有公式。这里面有两个难点，一个是耐心等待机会出现，一个是看准之后下决心，都不容易。",[827,874,875],{},"段总觉得不难，是可以理解的，因为上面这些问题，可能对于段总来说都不是问题，但对于像我这样的门外汉，却还有很长的路要走。",[827,877,878,881],{},[833,879,880],{},"段永平：我真的说过不难吗？我说的意思是其实没有更容易的办法。"," （2011-09-06）",[827,883,884],{},"网友：看到别人对自己懂的领域发表不一定正确的看法时，才对“不懂不做”有了鲜活的理解（才觉得“不懂不做”多么重要，有种醍醐灌顶的感觉）。反观自己现在可能也正在犯和别人一样的错误。越发觉得投资不简单了。",[827,886,887,890],{},[833,888,889],{},"段永平：投资很简单但绝不容易。简单指的是原则-就是不懂不做，不容易指的是理解搞懂生意不容易。"," （2013-03-26）",[827,892,893],{},"网友：我的理解就是：价值投资需要非常扎实的功底，对企业透彻了解的功底。",[827,895,896,898],{},[833,897,835],{}," 其实任何东西要做好了都需要有扎实的功底哈。所谓的“价值投资”就是买企业未来利润的意思，不懂企业就根本没办法做到这点。（2013-06-01）",[827,900,901,902,906],{},"从逻辑上讲，说",[903,904,58],"a",{"href":905},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","难的意思似乎是还有别的办法更容易。",[827,908,909,910,912],{},"其实从亏钱的角度讲，",[903,911,58],{"href":905},"确实有点难，别的亏钱的办法倒是容易得多。",[827,914,915,916,918],{},"记得以前有记者问为什么当年我那么有勇气买",[833,917,596],{},"，我说10块钱的东西有人哭着喊着要1块钱卖给你，你要勇气干什么？",[827,920,921],{},"这句话放在这里也适用：10块钱的东西有人非要1块钱卖给你，你为什么会觉得难呢？为什么呢？",[827,923,924],{},"不过，当你也不知道你要买的东西到底是什么的时候，那可确实有点难了，那种时候就会东张西望地看别人的反应。",[827,926,927,928,930,931,934],{},"话说回来，",[903,929,58],{"href":905},"确实有点难，不然满大街都是",[833,932,933],{},"巴菲特","岂不是有点乱？",[827,936,937,938,940],{},"长期来讲，真正的",[903,939,58],{"href":905},"确实有点难，是很难亏钱的难。",[827,942,943],{},"网友：关于投资，巴菲特该说的都用大白话说了，我一开始看他的东西的时候，看的很高兴，以为看懂了，其实那只不过明白他在说什么而已，不是真正的“理解”，中间的那道槛，不用真金白银交点学费是很难跨过去的，他的东西实际上是很难“理解”的，也就是难以内化成自己的东西，",[827,945,946],{},"只能是自己犯了一次错，然后想起，啊，原来巴老不是早就说过这事不能干的吗，骂一下自己，然后不再犯同样的过错，这已经是最好的结果了，有实际的企业经营经验的人应该更容易理解点，不过我也见过企业经营很成功的人在股市里完全是把股票当筹码在赌博，就象我见过买几块钱东西都要讨价还价的人买起股票来完全不把钱当钱，",[827,948,949],{},"买股票就是买企业的一部分，",[827,951,952],{},"不懂的东西不要做，不要做超出自己能力范围的事，",[827,954,955],{},"只在相对于内在价值大幅打折的时候才买进，",[827,957,958],{},"投资要有耐心有纪律，",[827,960,961],{},"听起来多简单啊，小学生都知道是什么意思，但做起来多难啊，dimple but not easy，呵呵。",[827,963,964,966],{},[833,965,835],{}," 呵呵，你已经看得很懂了",[827,968,969,970],{},"笔误纠正一下：",[833,971,972],{},"simple but not easy！",[827,974,975,978],{},[833,976,977],{},"小典故：这句话有可能是巴菲特跟我学的，"," 第一次和他吃饭的时候我说了一次，然后他微笑着重复了一次。以前我没见他这么说过，那以后我见他说过两次，其中一次是在CCTV采访中说的。",[827,980,981],{},"不管谁说的，听懂了就是很大的进步。（2010-03-09）",[827,983,984],{},"网友：智慧的方丈，能否分析一下，为什么化简为繁的人那么多，而化繁为简的人那么少呢？特别是在投资里。",[827,986,987,989],{},[833,988,835],{}," 不明真相的群众：因为化繁为简需要的能力更加稀缺，只有少数人能达到。",[827,991,992],{},[833,993,994],{},"复杂的事情简单做，简单的事情重复做。(2023-05-29)",[822,996,998],{"id":997},"第二节-价值投资到底难在哪里","第二节 价值投资到底难在哪里",[827,1000,1001,1003,1004,1006,1007,1009],{},[833,1002,835],{}," 老是听人说",[903,1005,58],{"href":905},"太难了，这篇《",[903,1008,58],{"href":905},"到底难在哪里？》大概是很有代表性的，对此我说几句自己的看法。",[827,1011,1012],{},"引用：（豆豆龙：价值投资到底难在哪里？）via@fish",[827,1014,1015,1018],{},[833,1016,1017],{},"原文："," 价值投资，原理和技术其实说出来很简单，但是大道至简，知易行难。现实生活中，真正深得价值投资精髓的朋友，确实是少之又少。对于价值投资来说，其实最难的部分是那种人生态度和哲学。查理芒格曾说40岁以前没有真正的价值投资者。我想，也许他的意思是，心理年龄不到40岁的人，未曾经历真正的风雨和历练的人，是很难有这种超常的定力和淡泊的风骨的。",[827,1020,1021],{},"有的朋友开始笑了，哪有这么玄乎？说的像《笑傲江湖》一样。但是真正懂得价值投资真谛的人，一定能会心的微笑。经常有我的朋友向我咨询关于投资的问题。但当我开始向他们推荐一些书目和心得的时候，他们又总是迫不及待的问我关于个股的看法和持仓情况，最常见的问题是：哪只股有5倍10倍的潜力？我总是对他们说，告诉了你，你也挣不到的。",[827,1023,1024],{},"有很多人对我的话嗤之以鼻，“我也可以做长线啊，为什么我做不到？”现在，就让我来说说，为什么推荐了正确的个股，很多人也无法获利。这也是想告诉大家，成为一个价值投资者，最难的部分是什么？",[827,1026,1027],{},"1 难在被怀疑被耻笑时候的坚持、自信与淡定",[827,1029,1030],{},"我能很确定的告诉你的一件事，就是作为一个价值投资者，是会经常被人怀疑和耻笑的。因为价值投资人常常在短期内“赶不上潮流”，遗憾的是，这个所谓的“短期”常常有可能甚至是几年的时间。如果不信的话，最简单的就是去访问一下李驰、但斌等中国最成功和知名的价值投资人的博客评论，看看有多少人仍在耻笑和怀疑他们。",[827,1032,1033],{},"我曾经看过广东一个电视台录的一个采访林园的节目，那个人在节目中竭尽全力地冷嘲热讽林园已经完全失败。可笑的是，这个主持人连股票价格复权这样基本的常识都不懂，却敢去嘲讽一个每年股利就能分到几千万的智者。",[827,1035,1036],{},"这种事情总在世界各地发生，巴菲特也一直在被人质疑。有的“高人”说，巴菲特只是在前台表演的傀儡，背后也有“庄家”；在科技股疯狂的20世纪末，美国的报纸曾经在头版头条公开质疑巴菲特已经落伍了，被时代所淘汰了；巴菲特这次到中国拜访比亚迪后，比亚迪却正巧遭遇业绩下滑和股价下跌，于是又有很多人怀疑他在“借机出货”。",[827,1038,1039],{},"我本人也经常被人质疑。去年，我觉得房地产已经在最后的疯狂，因此把自己的一套房产出售，大家都说我又疯又傻。我自己觉得，一套住了9年的房子，卖的房价是当年的5倍多，租售比已经在600：1，虽然我永远都不知道也不奢望是否卖在了最高点，但我很清楚价格已经非常高估了，这种简单的道理大家为什么都不理解？",[827,1041,1042],{},"可是大家都在告诉我另一个简单的“真理”：中国的房价一定会永远涨下去的。更要命的，直到现在，他们一直是对的，因为我卖出去的房子已经又涨价了至少20%。",[827,1044,1045],{},"现在，由于我这段时间坚定看好银行股等蓝筹，别人也经常耻笑我。有的人直接说我脑袋进水了，有的人洋洋得意地对我说，他持有的有色股在两周内翻番了，而我的银行股却很久不动，没有赶上大趋势。以前那些听我意见的朋友，两个月后再见面，也开始避免和我谈股票，因为他们已经不信任我的判断。他们甚至开始反过来教育我，要“认清形势，顺势而为；中国没有你那套东西的土壤”。",[827,1047,1048],{},"我相信他们中的有些人已经开始恨我或骂我，后悔听我的建议。他们早已卖出了我推荐的那些股票，转换成市场里真正的“热点”。",[827,1050,1051],{},"最危险的是，一个功力不够的价值投资者，常常自己也会被其他人的行为所影响和动摇。一个月，我们可以坚守自己的信念；可是，半年后，一年后，甚至三五年后，当看到身边那些技术派、趋势派、甚至没有任何投资知识的老奶奶，他们的收益都比自己高的多的时候（遗憾的是，这真的有可能发生的），我们会不会仍然坚守自己的判断和信念？会不会想：是不是大部分人对了，其实错的是我呢？",[827,1053,1054],{},"李驰在他的博客中说道：投资未最后结帐之前，看起来和傻子一模一样。作为价值投资者，如果不能对以上的事情淡然一笑，如果不能在自己深入分析调研并正确判断的基础上坚持自己的投资纪律和原则，是无法坚守价值投资的。这也是为什么我告诉我的朋友，推荐了你正确的个股，你也不一定信；即使信了，你也不一定拿得住，更不一定能获得收益。",[827,1056,1057],{},"一个别人推荐的，你并没有深入研究过的股票，你能坚守吗？",[827,1059,1060],{},"2 难在逆势而为的理性、清醒与忍耐",[827,1062,1063],{},"在大牛市中持有现金，正像在大熊市中满仓尖叫一样，是需要理性与勇气的。李驰和赵丹阳，能在07年的大牛市中果断清仓，现在说起来容易，可是实际操作起来，是需要极大的魄力和定力的。我的一个朋友，曾经豪言一辈子有2件事不做：一不赌博，二不炒股。可是在07年4000多点的时候，他也开始炒股了。",[827,1065,1066],{},"那个时候，几乎所有的人都热情高涨，都认可股市到达10000点是指日可待的事情，连证券公司门口看车的老大爷，都开始把一辈子的存款拿出来炒股，生怕赶不上这个“千载难逢的好时候”。他们都相信，中国的经济要再高速发展30年，所以股票至少还会再涨30年。一开始，你可以不信这些话，但你看到不相信的结果是，说这个话的人的投资已经在3个月之内翻番了，这时候你也开始相信了。",[827,1068,1069],{},"那时候最知名的歌曲是一首股民改编的“死了都不卖”的流行歌曲。让你这个时候清仓观望，持有现金或债券，看着股市每天在涨，心里计算着每天你少赚了多少钱，你真的觉得很容易吗？赵丹阳在07年上半年清仓后，那个时候也曾被很多人耻笑。",[827,1071,1072],{},"顺便说一句，我认为中国现在的房市，和当时的股市是完全一样的。有些成年人，就是不明白一些最简单的道理，比如：世界上没有只涨不跌的商品。人还没去世，不代表着人一辈子都不会死。",[827,1074,1075],{},"反过来，在股票市场极度低迷的时刻，在99%以上的人都深度套牢、心灰意冷的时刻，在所有人一提股票，就语重心长地劝你，千万不要掉入这个陷阱的时候，你开始建仓，你觉得容易吗？更经常发生的事情是，你开始建仓了，可是你的股票仍然跌跌不休，每天都在赔钱，连续几个月，你能不心灰意冷吗？你仍能高兴的尽情买入甚至满仓吗？",[827,1077,1078],{},"很多好心人，开始说你是赌徒，开始用怜悯的目光看你，开始远离你；你的家人和朋友会担心你怀疑你，和你争论，开始想拯救你。他们不相信你的理论，只相信你现在在亏钱的现实。这个时候，你仍然能保持那份理性和清醒吗？",[827,1080,1081],{},"价值投资者也是理性和聪慧的人，但却把自己归入了逆势而为的小众（因为90%的股票投资者都亏钱，所以绝大部分人是错的），长期忍受别人的误解、忽视、嘲笑甚至谩骂，你觉得这很容易做到吗？",[827,1083,1084],{},"3 难在自省与分清对错",[827,1086,1087],{},"是的，作为价值投资者，很多时候，市场和大多数人会犯错误，而你是对的；这正是价值投资者的机会。但是，我们都不是圣人，因此有些时候（甚至是很多时候），价值投资者也会犯错误。要时刻分清对错，而不是偏执；要坚持对的，并及时承认和改正错误。这个度的把握和判断，着实不易。",[827,1089,1090],{},"价值投资者必须仔细分辨别人的理由和意见，并自行做出正确的分析和判断。举个例子，我现在看好银行行业，有的人会嗤之以鼻：银行股盘子太大，涨得慢；那么这种理由我就付之一笑好了。有的人说，银行股风险大，因为未来房地产前景很有风险；这种风险我也经过了最激进的测算；",[827,1092,1093],{},"根据我的试算，我认为房地产价格在当前水平上一年内跌去50%也并不会对银行造成难以承受的危机（我一直认为北京上海的房地产价格会至少跌回到08年底的价格，甚至更低）。",[827,1095,1096,1097,1100],{},"但如果有的人说，银行的最大风险是地方融资",[903,1098,166],{"href":1099},"\u002Fpingtai","贷款，而据可靠消息，其中的坏账风险可能远远出乎大家的想象，那么我会仔细和他分析消息的来源和坏账的定量的影响，以及重新估算当前的价格是否具有充分的安全边际。如果证明我以前的风险估算不足，也许我应该重新审视自己的投资。",[827,1102,1103],{},"很多时候，自信与自大，坚持与偏执，只有一线之差；而这一线之差可能会让人破产。不自省的价值投资者的固执己见也许会导致致命的错误。我最佩服巴菲特的一点是，他总是敢于当众承认自己也会犯下愚蠢的错误，比如投资服装厂，比如康菲石油（尽管在当时，这明显看起来也像非常好的投资机会）；但同时，他坚定地遵循自己认为正确的决定，比如不涉足科技股，持有可口可乐和逆势加仓富国银行。",[827,1105,1106],{},"他判断对错，并不是基于市场的反应和短时间的涨跌，而是真正从企业自身来判断，并基于自己铁的纪律。",[827,1108,1109],{},"4 难在目光长远而不急功近利",[827,1111,1112],{},"多数人是带着一夜暴富的梦想来到股市的。我曾经调查过不少人的预期平均年收益，有的人不好意思的告诉我50%，有的人信心满满地说100%，有的人甚至说，争取干3年就实现财务自由。他们没有算过的是，世界上最富有最传奇的职业投资人，他们十几年或者几十年的年平均投资收益率也就是20%多。然而就是这20几个点的收益，让他们的财富得到了几千倍的增长。",[827,1114,1115],{},"巴菲特在他30岁的时候，资产只有100万美金，40岁的时候，资产只有2000万美金，可是在他80岁的时候，资产已经变成了400多亿美金。老戴维斯38岁才辞去公职开始以10万美元开始投资，可是在他70多岁的时候仍然有9个多亿的收益。换句话说，如果你在现在投资10万元，并保持25%的年收益率，10年后，你的资产会变成93万，40年后你的资产会变成7.5亿。",[827,1117,1118],{},"想一想，那些急功近利的投资人，有多少人能在40年能获得这个成绩？",[827,1120,1121],{},"我在10多年以前，也曾经以五万元的存款本金，在一个月内经过多次“完美”的技术操作，赚了1万多元。当初身边的朋友也有很多人对我顶礼膜拜。我甚至在美好的幻想，以后就靠这5万元作为起步资本，每月赚个5000元，比上班强多了（那时我的工资才3000多元）。后面的结果不多说了，总之在辞去工作，专职炒股5个月后，我又重新开始，老老实实的找了一份新的工作。",[827,1123,1124],{},"而对于真正的价值投资者，他的投资目标或纪律是什么？理智的价值投资者很少有人敢定下25%的年收益目标。通常，价值投资者的基本目标是保住本金，杜绝损失。更进一步的是，跑赢通胀。出乎很多人预料的是，这其实一点也不难。巴菲特以及无数的价值投资者在教育大家，只要买入低摩擦成本的指数基金，就能做到这一点。",[827,1126,1127],{},"我也经常向不懂股票的朋友推荐指数基金，特别在这个阶段，推荐ETF50，可是从者寥寥。遗憾的是，大多数投资者不满足于这个收益，或认为自己比普通人运气更好、技术更高、更聪明。其实90%以上的投资者是无法跑赢指数的，而这也包括那些广大的基金从业者！所以更高级的价值投资目标就是跑赢指数！",[827,1129,1130],{},"我从来不相信会有任何真正的价值投资者敢于挑战说，我追求的年化收益有30%，因为从长期来讲，这是基本不可能完成的认为（一些著名的投资机构，在长时间内保持了超过30%的年化收益；然而，在扣除了交易管理费用和普通合伙人分成后，很少有人能保持这么高的年化收益）。",[827,1132,1133,1134,1137],{},"看着身边追逐热点的幸运者在欢呼庆祝，我们真的能时刻保持一个",[903,1135,18],{"href":1136},"\u002Fpingchangxin","吗？当我们看到明显的所谓“机会”和“热点”，会不会也想做把波段或短差？要知道，做一天或一年的价值投资者容易，但难的是做一辈子不急功近利的投资人！",[827,1139,1140],{},"真正的成功价值投资者，三分术，七分心态。所有的术都好学，然而心态却需要经过人生的历练和感悟才能学到。就像今天，一个朋友拍着我的肩膀对我语重心长的说：“事实证明，你的房子卖了，就永远不能在以同样的价格买回来了；而你的股票，今天卖了，你随时都能用更低价格买回来。”呵呵，遇到这种情况，你会怎么想？",[827,1142,1143],{},"不要预测短期的形势。没有无风险的行业和无风险的投资。对于未来，一切都是不确定的。我曾经一再申明，没有人能预测短期的股市，没有人能预测短期的经济走势，没有人能预测道指一天跌1000点，没有人能预测经济危机（否则就不会发生经济危机了），因为这一切的变量太多了。",[827,1145,1146],{},"没有人能预测911，没有人能预测朝鲜会不会往韩国扔个脏弹（连），没有人能预测天灾人祸，没有人能预测自然灾害，一只在西伯利亚的蝴蝶扇动翅膀，可能会引发一场龙卷风或海啸，这一切都是变量。说不定哪天外星人来了，小行星撞地球了，2012了，我们的经济环境和自然环境是如此的脆弱和复杂，因此一切预测都是不可靠和不负责任的。",[827,1148,1149],{},"我敢说能准确预测未来的人，都是不小心走远说中一次的。",[827,1151,1152],{},"如果让我做一个最大胆的预测，我也只敢说，中国以及世界的经济，在长时间的轨迹中，应该是螺旋向上的；历史的车轮不可阻挡。在过去100年中的科技和经济发展，比过去10000年的贡献都要巨大。我可以很保守的说，在未来的50年、30年甚至10年之内，中国以及世界的经济发展会比现在要更好。然而连这个我都不敢和人打赌，因为一场天灾、一场战争或危机，也许会毁了文明的进程。",[827,1154,1155,1156],{},"但是话说回来，也许那个时候连人类和金钱都不存在了，也不存在投资和股票的问题了。 ",[833,1157,1158],{},"（全文完）",[827,1160,1161,1163,1164,1166,1167,1169],{},[833,1162,835],{}," 首先，“难”是相对于“容易”的。本人觉得",[903,1165,58],{"href":905},"是最容易的投资办法，因为这是我会的唯一的投资办法。说",[903,1168,58],{"href":905},"“难”的人一定是有更容易的办法“投资”？",[827,1171,1172,1173,1175],{},"“难在被怀疑被耻笑时的坚持、自信与淡定”一",[903,1174,58],{"href":905},"投的是你自己懂的企业，如果你真懂的话，又怎么会不坚持呢？",[827,1177,1178,1179,1181],{},"如果有不自信的感觉，那就说明你还没搞懂你投的企业，或者你还不是",[903,1180,58],{"href":905},"者。",[827,1183,1184,1186],{},[903,1185,58],{"href":905},"是你自己的事情，别人怎么看与你何干？",[827,1188,1189,1190,1193],{},"“难在逆势而为的",[903,1191,222],{"href":1192},"\u002Flixing","、清醒与忍耐”一“势”实际上就是别人现在怎么看的意思。当一个人在投资上还在想着是“逆势”还是“顺势”时，就没办法专注在自己的标的上。",[827,1195,1196,1186],{},[903,1197,58],{"href":905},[827,1199,1200,1201,1203],{},"“难在自省与分清对错”-难道非",[903,1202,58],{"href":905},"做到这点更容易？",[827,1205,1206,1208,1209,1211,1212,1214],{},[903,1207,58],{"href":905},"里最重要的一点就是",[903,1210,222],{"href":1192},"，能够",[903,1213,222],{"href":1192},"地看待面临的一切就更有机会分清对错。",[827,1216,1217],{},"“难在目光长远而不急功近利”一这是在说谁呢？",[827,1219,1220],{},[833,1221,1222,1223,1225],{},"其实我倒是觉得最危险的是口里喊着",[903,1224,58],{"href":905},"，但实际上却老是在东张西望的“投资人”。",[827,1227,1228,1229,1231,1232,1234],{},"我觉得这篇文章的作者一定是个读过不少",[903,1230,58],{"href":905},"书的人，",[903,1233,58],{"href":905},"的概念已经有了，但还没能融到骨子里。时间会帮忙的。",[822,1236,1238],{"id":1237},"第三节-做对的事情与把事情做对","第三节 做对的事情与把事情做对",[827,1240,1241],{},"网友：问题是开始怎么知道是对的事情呢？",[827,1243,1244,1246,1247,1250],{},[833,1245,835],{}," 你肯定知道有些事情是错的。",[903,1248,23],{"href":1249},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","的意思是，如果错了就改，马上改的代价最小。很多人是明知是错还要做，但错的事情往往有眼前利益，有诱惑。比如：骗人的生意、抽烟、赌博，等等。",[827,1252,1253,1254,1256],{},"网友：比如炒股票、做短线就是错的事情(玩玩而已那可以理解)，做真正的",[903,1255,58],{"href":905},"就是对的事情。当然偶尔犯错也是可以理解的，但不要犯原则性错误。是这样吗？",[827,1258,1259,1261],{},[833,1260,835],{}," 嗯，你的解释很对。",[827,1263,1264,1265,1268],{},"网友：“理解复利的魔力和获得它的困难是理解许多事情的核心和灵魂。”",[833,1266,1267],{},"芒格","这句话怎么理解？",[827,1270,1271,1273,1274,1277],{},[833,1272,835],{}," 不做不对的事情，从而少犯错。对于具有",[903,1275,28],{"href":1276},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","的能力的人而言，时间长了就明白什么是复利了。",[827,1279,1280],{},"网友：在2016年看到您的一句话，“发现错了马上改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价”，于是我坚决把一只明知是错但还在犹豫的股票卖掉了。当时亏了20%，放到现在则是亏60%。做到这一点确实不容易。",[827,1282,1283,1285],{},[833,1284,835],{}," 不这么做会更不容易的！",[827,1287,1288,1290],{},[833,1289,835],{}," 知道道理和真正懂（付诸实施）是有很大差别的。投资的目的到不一定是为了成大气候，至少这是个很好玩的事情。炒股如做人这话也许有道理，我要想想。（2010-03-28）",[827,1292,1293],{},"网友：大家讨论价值投资都太强调“知”，其实“行”才更难做到，更别说“知行合一”了。",[827,1295,1296,1298],{},[833,1297,855],{}," ：不知知不易，恐将行更难。（2012-04-07）",[827,1300,1301,1303],{},[833,1302,835],{}," 理解价值投资不等于就能在股市上赚到钱，就像知道要“做对的事情”的人不一定具备“把事情做对”的能力一样。",[827,1305,1306],{},"“把事情做对”需要有很多年的辛苦积累，不是看一两本书或者上几个“高手”的博客就能学会的。（2012-04-26）",[827,1308,1309],{},"网友：今天忽然明白了“做对的事情＋把事情做对”=复利，也理解了复利的伟大和艰难，其实这就是段兄说的投资或价值投资的意思，长期投资的含义也在里边了。",[827,1311,1312,1314],{},[833,1313,835],{}," 艰难的说法比较怪，其实这是最不艰难的办法。（2014-04-28）",[827,1316,1317,1319],{},[833,1318,835],{}," 知难行易和知易行难其实不矛盾，一个说的是要做对的事情，一个说的是把事情做对。（2016-07-14）",[827,1321,1322],{},"网友：其实我觉得作为价值投资者，对于段总说的这些道理应该早就是很清楚的，但真正做得好的却极少，正所谓知易行难，我想问问段总如何能做到知行合一，有具体的可操作的方式没有？另外，我个人感觉，炒股如做人，做人不好，投资也一定成不了大气候，段总以为如何？",[827,1324,1325,1327],{},[833,1326,835],{}," 知道和从骨子里相信是完全不同的两回事。",[827,1329,1330],{},"网友l：觉得自己已经走在对的路上了，继续跟大道学怎么把事情做对。",[827,1332,1333,1335],{},[833,1334,835],{}," 怎么把事情做对大概必须要靠自己了。时间会帮你的。",[827,1337,1338],{},"网友：高估时卖掉，若有定力存在银行一直等到下一次低估当然最好，但有几个投资者有如此定力？",[827,1340,1341,1343],{},[833,1342,835],{}," 需要“定力”的东西一般来说不会是啥让人开心的东西，甚至可能是让人睡不好觉的东西。",[827,1345,1346,1347,1350],{},"网友：",[903,1348,12],{"href":1349},"\u002Fbenfen","!老老实实……就不大需要定力。",[827,1352,1353,1355,1356,1358],{},[833,1354,835],{}," 关键还是要",[903,1357,222],{"href":1192},"。",[827,1360,1361],{},"网友：大道眼力够强，所以不需要定力。普通人没有大道的眼力，又想理财，还是要选择一条适合自已的路。每个人的悟性能力不同，强求与大道一样的投资方法或许会南辕北辙。",[827,1363,1364,1366],{},[833,1365,835],{}," 嗯嗯，尽管找借口吧！对你没啥好处的。",[822,1368,1370],{"id":1369},"第四节-没有捷径慢慢变富","第四节 没有捷径，慢慢变富",[827,1372,1373,933,1376],{},[833,1374,1375],{},"问：您竟拍",[833,1377,1378],{},"午餐时用的ID是“Fast is slow”，您能解释一下是什么意思吗？",[827,1380,1381,1383,1384,1387,1388,1391],{},[833,1382,855],{},"： 太快了就等于慢，其实就相当于我们中国人说的“",[833,1385,1386],{},"欲速不达”","。这是我多年以来做企业、做投资的一个最基本的哲学。做很多事情你必须要认真去做，要有",[903,1389,197],{"href":1390},"\u002Fnaixin","，要有坚持，不要老想着“多快好省”，走捷径的办法往往都是走不远的，这是一个很基本的逻辑。",[827,1393,1394],{},"我一直说“Fast is slow”，原意是“欲速不达”，不知道为什么“后人”会说成“慢就是快”。欲速不达反过来并不是慢就是快，逻辑上并不成立。",[827,1396,1397],{},"网友：我们经常从那些上进的孩子们那儿听到这些问题。这是个很“聪明”的问题，你对着一个有钱老头问：“我怎么才能成为你呢？怎么才能迅速地成为你呢？”",[827,1399,1400,1402],{},[833,1401,855],{}," ：“except faster”就是如果不能更快的话。我觉得怎么才能迅速地成为你呢？翻得很好哈。",[827,1404,1405],{},"我也经常碰到类似的问题，而且潜台词往往是我比你还聪明，所以我应该可以更快，只要告诉我秘诀就行了。",[827,1407,1408],{},"其实秘诀很简单，把巴菲特说过的所有东西都看20遍（如果一遍看不懂的话），再悟20年，就知道自己有没有可能做好了，已经懂的例外。（2012-06-26）",[827,1410,1411],{},"网友：您在投资过程中运用到个人的资源(人脉和资金)多吗？如果没有这些常人没有的人脉，会对您的投资行为产生多大影响呢？",[827,1413,1414,1416,1417,1358],{},[833,1415,835],{}," 我投资没用过啥“人脉”。事实上，我目前的主要投资里，没有任何一个是和“人脉”有关的。我也没啥“天赋”。该讲的道理我都讲过了，我想你肯定是没看过或者没看进去。人们之所以会有这些问题，是因为很多人都认为投资及很多事都有捷径，于是怎么看都是有捷径的。你说没有，人们其实也不信，因为",[833,1418,1419],{},"别人有捷径是自己没做好的最好借口",[827,1421,1422,1424],{},[833,1423,1346],{}," 在别人眼中，你算是年少得志，无论做企业、还是做投资都很成功。你认为自己究竟强在哪里？",[827,1426,1427,1429,1430],{},[833,1428,835],{}," 我是个很普通的人，做的事是每个人都能做得到，只是我和他们的心态不同，譬如想快速致富。",[833,1431,1432],{},"他们常常会跟我说，阿段你说得很有道理，但是我要尽快赚钱。我说，你看，我比你有经验有能力，我都只能尚且如此，凭什么你就能快点？",[827,1434,1435,1438],{},[833,1436,1437],{},"段永平：就像投资一样，一辈子悟不出来的多数都是由于自己拒绝去想长远的东西，短期的诱惑实在是太多了。"," （2019-01-18）",[827,1440,1441],{},"网友：我想问整天看你的回答问题和巴菲特的视频能学好投资吗？或者你认为一个普通员工怎样可以学会投资？",[827,1443,1444,1446],{},[833,1445,835],{}," 光整天看也许是不够的，要想要实践。如果你一直在悟的话，早晚会明白的。投资开始的越早越好，不要想着马上赚大钱，一定要记得老巴那句话：“慢慢地变富”。",[827,1448,1449],{},"据说在2000年的一个早上，亚马逊创始人杰夫贝索斯给巴菲特打电话，问巴菲特：“你的投资体系这么简单，为什么你是全世界第二富有的人，别人不做和你一样的事情？”巴菲特回答说：“因为没人愿意慢慢的变富。”贝索斯突然明白，关注长期的人，比关注短期的人有巨大的竞争优势，因此更加坚定了关注长期，忽视短期的想法。（2019-03-19）",[827,1451,1452],{},"网友：大道，多数人不愿意慢慢变富为何故？",[827,1454,1455,1457],{},[833,1456,835],{}," 其实我也不愿意慢慢的变富，我只是不知道怎么才能快速变富而已。（2019-06-03）",[827,1459,1460],{},"网友：大道，怎么理解慢慢变富？",[827,1462,1463,1465],{},[833,1464,855],{}," ：就是不要急功近利的意思？（2019-09-01）",[827,1467,1346,1468,1470],{},[903,1469,58],{"href":905},"这条路对于我来说还很艰难，我会做好准备，踏实地走下去。",[827,1472,1473,1475],{},[833,1474,835],{}," 呵呵，在这么有乐趣有“钱途”的大道上干嘛那么一副苦大仇深的样子啊？",[827,1477,1478],{},"网友：请教一下：关于投资人如何弄明白某行业或企业，要通过什么途径或方式方法？渴望段总能赐教。",[827,1480,1481,1483],{},[833,1482,855],{}," ：最简单的办法大概是在你认真思考企业10年20年后，你就会容易把握一些。只要一个人认为有捷径，他大概就会努力去寻找捷径，10年20年后估计他还在到处问人捷径在哪里。（2013-09-16）",[827,1485,1486],{},"网友：因此，正如段永平先生所说“事实上，我发现只有很少人会去真正认真地学（巴菲特）”，真正开始学的人就不多，加上估计企业的价值很需要一些无法量化的功夫，所以又有很多人学着学着跑了。这个领域的人其实并不多。bargain总是会出现，因为没有人可以用巴菲特的方法和洞察力分析整个市场的所有企业。",[827,1488,1489,1491,1492,840,1495,1497,1498,1504],{},[833,1490,835],{}," 呵呵，我个人的理解是，如果有个公式可以赚大钱的话，那所有人都会用这个公式，然后赚大钱的就是卖公式的人。其实现实中就有很多人是靠教人看图看线赚钱的，但他们不靠看图看线投资赚钱。",[833,1493,1494],{},"赌场里也有很多看图看线的人，他们好惨啊",[903,1496,58],{"href":905},"不是个公式。",[833,1499,1500,1501,1503],{},"以我个人的经历而言，对",[903,1502,58],{"href":905},"的理解真的需要很多年，同时还真是需要有点悟性才行"," 。（2010-03-05）",[827,1506,1507],{},"网友：《天道》这部剧确实成为商业巅峰剧，我也看了很多遍包括原著。想从中找到更多能够为己所用的知识点，很可惜资质有限，没有悟道。不过主人翁的扮演者王志文的演技无可挑剔。",[827,1509,1510],{},"大道：我记得以前我参加过北京电视台的一个节目，叫《危机时刻》。后来他们问我有什么建议，我说也许节目应该叫《危机意识》，但这样节目就没多少人会看了。商业运作和文艺作品里面的商业差别其实是蛮大的。我突然想起来贝索斯问巴菲特的那个问题：为什么你的办法这么简单，但人们就是不肯学呢？巴菲特说，因为人们是不想慢慢滴变富的。（2026-09-07）",[822,1512,1514],{"id":1513},"第五节-学得会吗悟性与实践","第五节 学得会吗，悟性与实践",[827,1516,1517],{},"网友：我现在工作很闲不需要动脑，像我这种情况，愿意将未来几个月以至几年时间花在这个上面，我该怎样学习进步呢？能否给一些指导建议？",[827,1519,1520,1522],{},[833,1521,855],{}," ：呵呵，拿点准备亏掉的钱出来下手就知道了。看书学游泳是学不会的，下水吧。不过别淹着了。（2010-02-09）",[827,1524,1525],{},"网友：我是一名即将毕业大学生，很认同你的做事思路，看了巴老的《致股东的信》也能理解，但就是不知怎开始价值投资，请段总指导。",[827,1527,1528,1530],{},[833,1529,835],{}," 呵呵，拿点闲钱下水吧，不然永远是看客。投资是个很好玩的游戏，但不要太花精力。如果不小心赚到钱了，千万不要以为自己就可以靠此为生了。如果仅仅把投资作为生活的一部分（可能是一小部分），他会给很多人带来乐趣的，不然可能会有很多痛苦。（2010-04-06）",[827,1532,1533],{},"网友：我1999年开始买美国股票，都买到很多间公司破产了（十多年赔了几十万USD）。1999年之前我不知道股票是什么样．",[827,1535,1536],{},"我经常在想买股票是不是比赌场还可怕，太多美国公司破产了．网络公司破产的ETYS，ATHM，IPIX……后来转去买金融股，这两年金融股也快破产的不少...今年我不太敢拿股票了。1999年巴菲特的BRK.A是$4万左右想买十几股，可是没经验没买到。",[827,1538,1539,856,1541,1544],{},[833,1540,855],{},[833,1542,1543],{},"你要是看看巴菲特和芒格的东西就不会中招。实在不行，看看我的也会少中招的"," （2010-05-24）",[827,1546,1547],{},"很多年前俞斌问我什么叫“会投资”，我的回答就是这样：和“会下棋”一样。我肯定会下棋，俞斌也就是会下棋而已，但确实不是一回事。",[827,1549,1550],{},"网友：老段，问个问题，最近我再次翻看《富爸爸穷爸爸》系列图书，发现你走过的路和书上讲的如出一辙，是不是你当时也是看过这系列书，然后一步一步现实的？最初成为一个投资大师的？",[827,1552,1553,1555],{},[833,1554,835],{}," 我没看过系列，只翻了一下第一本，大概意思明白。就投资而言，到现在为止我还是个初学者。",[827,1557,1558],{},"投资有点像围棋，从20几级到超一流9段的所有人都叫会下棋，可差别太大了。如果说巴菲特算是顶尖超一流9段的话，我大概也就刚好一段（因为姓段）。（2010-07-07）",[827,1560,1561],{},"网友：“四十岁以下没有价值投资者”是巴菲特说的吗？我感觉不明白。",[827,1563,1564,1566],{},[833,1565,835],{}," 有人说是芒格说的。没有的意思大概是比较罕见的意思吧。（2010-09-06）",[827,1568,1569],{},"网友：为什么大多数人学不了巴菲特？是不是与好汉不吃眼前亏有关？",[827,1571,1572,1574],{},[833,1573,835],{}," 这个说法有道理。换句话说可能就是短视了。（2010-11-24）",[827,1576,1577],{},"网友：有个问题在我心中萦绕了很久。在这里我想让段大哥您帮我解答一下。为什么巴菲特的儿子和芒格的儿子都不懂价值投资，或者说投资不怎么厉害。难道价值投资真的是教不会的吗？如果真的这么难道，那像我们这样的小辈没什么人教，那不是更加学不会了。",[827,1579,1580],{},[833,1581,1582],{},"段永平：价值投资教不会的原因是因为大多数人在大多数情况下是封闭且没有逻辑的，如果不肯学的人又如何能学会呢？",[827,1584,1585],{},[833,1586,1587],{},"口口声声说价值投资的人有很多其实骨子里并不是真的理解价值投资，一到关键时刻就不行了。学价值投资不会比学钢琴容易，不是看几本书，来这个博客晃一下就能学会了。",[827,1589,1590],{},[833,1591,1592],{},"想象一下，当一个弹钢琴的人到可以靠弹钢琴赚钱的时候，要花多少工夫？要靠投资赚钱所花的工夫不应该少过弹钢琴吧？（2011-05-19）",[827,1594,1595],{},"网友：此贴是否过于严苛了？连您自己都说过： simple but not easy",[827,1597,1598,1600],{},[833,1599,835],{}," 我的意思是其实没有更容易的方式去投资。尤其是初学者，老是想找捷径，次帖的意思就是没有捷径，就是没有更容易的办法的意思。（2011-09-06）",[827,1602,1603],{},"网友：有个疑问，巴老和大道都说过适合做投资的人是很少的，如果没记错大致是百里挑一的意思？绝大部分人适合做指数基金。我的感觉也是如此。投资是一条很长的路，在做对的事情和把事情做对的路途上，不会知道是不是能到还是到达不了的绝大部分，正如大道说过价值投资其实是学不会的，但有悟性的人可以提高而已。“可以提高的”这部分人群比例是多少呢？",[827,1605,1606,1608],{},[833,1607,855],{}," ：可以提高的比例就是适合的比例。不适合的大概很难提高。从留言版的情况有时也能看出来，不明白的怎么说都是不明白的，回头还要怪老巴，呵呵。（2011-10-25）",[827,1610,1611],{},"网友J：不断悟就能（不是说一定）到达吗？如果说投资是攀高峰（可能是没有顶的山峰），会不会有可能提高到一定程度就上不去了，也就是说其实也有机会是悟不会的？我觉得投资难的不是理念和智慧而是价值判断，很少有人能判断价值，简单但不容易的不容易在这里，虽然看起来不容易在前者。",[827,1613,1614,1616],{},[833,1615,855],{}," ：个人认为悟明白了的人就可以，比如我有一个朋友，他非常明白地坚决不碰股票，只把钱投在自己懂的生意里，回报肯定比股市上85%以上的人好。（2012-05-01）",[827,1618,1619,1621],{},[833,1620,835],{}," 芒格讲没见过40岁以下的价值投资者的意思大概不是人到40岁就自动可以成为价值投资者的吧？或许只有从年轻时就开始学价值投资的那些人，积累很多年以后才有机会成为价值投资者。（2012-05-10）",[827,1623,1624,1625,1627],{},"网友：最想学的就是您说的“",[903,1626,28],{"href":1276},"”，并坚持下去。",[827,1629,1630,1632,1633],{},[833,1631,835],{}," ",[833,1634,1635,1637],{},[903,1636,28],{"href":1276},"是要靠学习的，在实践中学习，在犯错误中学习。不做永远都不犯错，但永远学不会。",[827,1639,1640,1642],{},[903,1641,28],{"href":1276},"确实有高低之分。每个人都有自己的学习曲线，每个人都不可能不犯错误。据说在任何方面花够一万个小时后，大多数人都能成为专家。",[827,1644,1645],{},"网友：一开始做投资没有想得那么明白很正常，似懂非懂的时候拿点小钱试一试也未尝不可。",[827,1647,1648,1650],{},[833,1649,835],{}," 多数人的问题是算得太多而想得太少。拿点小钱试试没啥不可，但你想试的是什么？市场的走势？(2018-01-12)",[827,1652,1653],{},"网友：当我第一次看到您讲的“买股票就是买公司”的话时，我的内心就有一种被震撼的感觉，真的是这样。当悟到这个道理后，内心的喜悦比得到多少钱还高兴。我曾经试着把这个理念讲给我的几个朋友，但是我发现很难，怎么讲他们都觉得这不可能，还给我讲了很多什么大资金怎么样了，散户又怎么样了，行情又怎么样了，这一波过去又怎么样了，......等等之类的“炒”的概念。",[827,1655,1656],{},"我最近突然有个感悟：投资这个东西，可能是天生的，这个东西可能是学不会的，正如您说，懂的人一说就懂了，不懂的人怎么说都不懂。其实也没有什么要问，就是感觉我们是同类，不说一下不舒服。顺便感谢一下大道，各方面的受益都很好，非常感谢！",[827,1658,1659,1661],{},[833,1660,835],{}," 道的东西确实难教，必须要靠自己悟。心中无道的人你怎么说也是没用的。大多数人都是不容易open的，很难接受跟自己以前认识不同的东西。我有时候感觉很奇怪的是，如果是个已经很成功的人，不太接受新东西我也能理解，因为人家已经有了足够成功的经历和理解了。现实中我看到的情况刚好相反，那些不open的人常常就是那些不太成功的人。",[827,1663,1664],{},"举个例子，炒了30年股票（也许10年，20年）都不赚钱的人，当我说老巴时，人家居然会说……布拉布拉的。（2019-04-11）",[827,1666,1667,1669],{},[833,1668,835],{}," 投资不需要学历的，但需要明白内在的道理并坚信之，找到好公司后要好好拿着，不要为短期的股价波动所影响。（2019-09-16）",[827,1671,1672],{},"网友：改变思维方式还是有可能的，譬如我。",[827,1674,1675,1677],{},[833,1676,835],{}," 呵呵，那真要恭喜你。其实我的本意也不是说绝对不可能变，但确实很少见。不过，有些人觉得自己变了可能是重新发现了自己而已。",[827,1679,1680,1681,1683,1684,1686],{},"网友：懂",[833,1682,933],{},"的理念不太难，坚持",[833,1685,933],{},"的投资理念难于上青天。",[827,1688,1689,1691,1692,1694],{},[833,1690,835],{}," 坚持不了的人就是不懂！这里懂的意思是骨子里相信，不是可以照着念但其实不知道点什么。其实",[903,1693,58],{"href":905},"是所谓投资的唯一一条路，不然你投的是什么？",[827,1696,1697],{},"道需悟，术可学。",[827,1699,1700],{},[833,1701,1702,1703,1705],{},"道指的就是",[903,1704,23],{"href":1249},"，或者说不做不对的事情，或者说发现错了马上改——不管多大的代价都是最小的代价。",[827,1707,1708],{},"术指的是技术，对每个人来说都是需要学同时也需要练习的，非一朝一夕之功。",[827,1710,1711],{},"先有道然后术才有用哈，不然就是瞎忙。",[827,1713,1714,1715,1717],{},"其实",[833,1716,933],{},"并没有教我们什么。如果我们本来不懂的话，是没有人可以教会的。",[827,1719,1720,1721,1723,1724,1726,1727,1729,1730,1732],{},"我从来没有系统地看过",[833,1722,933],{},"的东西。我非常认同买股票就是买公司这个逻辑。对我来说，这个逻辑其实不是来自",[833,1725,933],{},"，而是来自我自己的内心，只是后来发现",[833,1728,933],{},"也是如此，而且干得很不错，从而坚定了自己的信心而已。所以，我更认为我喜欢",[833,1731,933],{},"，是因为他是我的“同道中人”。",[827,1734,1735,1737,1738,1740,1741,1743],{},[833,1736,933],{},"股东信里讲的东西无非就两个：一个是",[903,1739,23],{"href":1249},"，就是去找好公司，关注公司长远的未来；另一个是如何",[903,1742,28],{"href":1276},"，就是如何找到好公司，如何看到公司的未来。",[827,1745,1746],{},[833,1747,1748],{},"第一个问题其实就一句话，非常典型的“大道至简”，但非常难，绝大多数人在这点上过不去，所以才会过于关注市场。",[827,1750,1751,933,1761,933,1764],{},[833,1752,1753,1754,1757,1758,1760],{},"第二个问题，是每个人的",[903,1755,33],{"href":1756},"\u002Fnengliquan","问题，做投资，每个人都该找自己能搞懂的好企业。",[833,1759,933],{},"懂的我经常不懂，我懂的",[833,1762,1763],{},"也可能不懂。我大致看过一些",[833,1765,1766],{},"的股东信，也很认真地听过他在几个大学的问答式演讲。他的语言精练、诙谐、逻辑性极强，对我来说听起来就好像听音乐一样，非常舒服。",[827,1768,1769],{},[833,1770,1771],{},"对于能看懂他的东西的人来说，这些已经足够好了；对于那些看不懂的人来说，其实就算详细讲解也是没什么用的。",[827,1773,1774,933,1777,1780],{},[833,1775,1776],{},"总而言之，在投资里，能说的",[833,1778,1779],{},"都说过了，我没见过谁能比他说得更简单明了！","（《穿过迷雾》序，2016年8月30日）",[827,1782,1783],{},"道的东西确实难教，必须要靠自己悟。心中无道的人你怎么说也是没用的。大多数人都是不容易开放的，很难接受跟自己以前认识不同的东西。我有时候感觉很奇怪的是，如果是个已经很成功的人，不太接受新东西我也能理解，因为人家已经有了足够成功的经历和理解了。现实中我看到的情况刚好相反，那些不开放的人常常就是那些不太成功的人。",[827,1785,1786,1787,1789],{},"举个例子，炒了30年股票(也许10年、20年)都不赚钱的人，当我说",[833,1788,933],{},"时，人家居然会说……布拉布拉的。",[827,1791,1792],{},"网友：段大哥：昨天在香港问钟兆民，华人里投资最厉害的人是谁？他说是段永平。跟我的想法一样。",[827,1794,1795,1797],{},[833,1796,835],{}," 所谓投资厉害不厉害实际上是很难定义的，这又不是比赛。",[827,1799,1800],{},"人们对投资“厉害”与否往往喜欢用某段时间的回报的比例来衡量，但这种衡量往往是不科学的，因为有很多因素会影响到短期的回报。下面举几个可能影响短期投资回报的例子：",[827,1802,1803],{},"1．能力圈：懂投资的人的回报未必能一直比市场好，尤其是有时候能力圈内没得可投时；",[827,1805,1806],{},"2．margin：有些用margin甚至是用很多margin的人是有可能在赌对的情况下在某个时段表现很好的----但出来混是一定会还的；",[827,1808,1809],{},"3．把握性：巴菲特说，他的投资一般是在他认为有95%的把握时才出手（我觉得也许没那么高），但很多人实际上60%的把握就出手了（或许更低，所以会看到他们深一脚浅一脚的），可是10000个60%出手的人里面总能在某个时段找到运气好而回报特别好的，但未必就是因为这些人厉害。",[827,1811,1812],{},"4．用功程度：所谓懂投资的真正含义，我个人的理解其实是懂得不投不懂的东西。但投资回报的好坏其实是取决于投资人能找到自己懂的好的投资标的，这就需要很用功才能经常找到好的目标（巴菲特的标准是一年一个）。像我这种用等待苹果掉头上型的用功程度4年能找到一个就很不错的。",[827,1814,1815],{},"如果非要找个厉害的华人投资者，我个人觉得最厉害的是李嘉诚，不会有啥争议吧？（2012-08-27）",[827,1817,1818],{},"网友y：一个投资者的心路历程——学习老巴好榜样。",[827,1820,1821],{},"1．焦躁的过山车，那两三年，自己很努力，尝试不同的方法，但还是注定失败。一是最终沉迷于市场，二是努力方向错误。还是盯着市场，研究“势”，为投机找借口。三是学习方向错误。那时也很谦虚的到处学习，身边有人吹得很神，为自己还是重点大学金融研究生不如他们而惭愧……，那两三年：悲催的大牛市与大熊市，这过山车摇得自己差点没命。",[827,1823,1824],{},"2、迷惘的再摔跤……最后，还是迷茫地再摔跤再坐过山车……",[827,1826,1827],{},"学习方面，由于持股少了，更多时间空出来看别的东西。系统地看了巴菲特，特别是段永平、对价值投资的概念有点登堂入室的理解。",[827,1829,1830],{},"3．近两年：开始做对的事情，但还没把事情做对。",[827,1832,1833,1835],{},[833,1834,835],{}," 呵呵，说几点：",[827,1837,1838],{},"1．说明学校里是很难学到投资的，哪怕是金融专业的研究生也可以是七窍只通了六窍。（备注：就是一窍不通的意思）",[827,1840,1841],{},"2．说明在吃了很多亏后，不断悟的人最后会悟到“道”的。",[827,1843,1844],{},"3．上道了不等于到了目的地，知道对的事情离能把事情做对可能还有相当长的时间。好消息是，只要上道了，快点慢点其实没啥关系，早晚你都会到罗马的，if you really believe that.（2012-05-01）",[827,1846,1847],{},"网友：是呀，好在醒悟得早，归根到底我也不是学者，不是搞理论研究的，目标还是赚钱，看图看线不赚钱呢，现在找到老巴的理论，实在幸甚。",[827,1849,1850,1852],{},[833,1851,835],{}," 其实老巴并没有教我们什么。我们如果本来不懂的话，是没有人可以教会的。（2011-03-07）",[827,1854,1855,1857],{},[833,1856,835],{}," 小翟能到今天确实不容易，也很了不起。感觉小翟对投资的理解还有些教条主义，还没有到骨子里，或许时间可以弥补，多关心些投资以外的东西或许也能有帮助？（2012-04-04）",[827,1859,1860],{},"网友：李诞和方三文最近聊天说，雪球上这些分享永远改变不了别人，认可你的人是因为他本来就是这样的人，然后在社交媒体上遇到了一个更厉害更通透更智慧的人。这是一个找到同类的过程。有的人永远都不会走价值投资这条路，所以你说什么他都会无脑黑。",[827,1862,1863],{},"大道：没人能改变任何人的。however，你可以点醒别人，点醒那些人们本来心里就有的东西。（2026-08-27）",[822,1865,1867],{"id":1866},"第六节-什么人适合投资","第六节 什么人适合投资",[827,1869,1870],{},"网友：您觉得一毕业就直接投身到投资领域好吗？还是应该先有自己经营企业的经验才能真正理解企业？",[827,1872,1873,1875],{},[833,1874,835],{}," 老实讲，我不知道什么人适合做投资。但我知道统计上大概80%-90%进入股市的人都是赔钱的。如果算上利息的话，赔钱的比例还要高些。许多人很想做投资的原因可能是认为投资的钱比较好赚，或来得比较快。作为既经营过企业又有投资经验的人来讲，我个人认为经营企业还是要比投资容易些。",[827,1877,1878,1879,1882,1883,1885],{},"虽然这两者其实没有什么本质差别，但经营企业总是会在自己熟悉的领域，犯错的机会小，而投资却总是需要面临很多新的东西和不确定性，而且投资人会非常容易变成",[903,1880,125],{"href":1881},"\u002Ftouji","者，从而去冒不该冒的风险，而",[903,1884,125],{"href":1881},"者要转化为真正的投资者则可能要长得多的时间。",[827,1887,1888,1889,1891,1892,1894],{},"投资和",[903,1890,125],{"href":1881},"其实是很不同的游戏，但看起来又非常像。就像在澳门，开赌场的就是投资者，而赌客就是",[903,1893,125],{"href":1881},"者一样。赌场之所以总有源源不断的客源，是因为总有赌客能赢钱，而赢钱的总是比较大声些。作为娱乐，赌点小钱无可非议，但赌身家就不对了。可我真是能见到好多在股场上赌身家的人啊。",[827,1896,1897,1898,1900],{},"以我个人的观点，其实什么人都可以做投资，只要你明白自己买的是什么，价值在哪里。",[903,1899,125],{"href":1881},"需要的技巧可能要高很多，这是我不太懂的领域，也不打算学了，有空还是多陪陪家人或打几场高尔夫吧。",[827,1902,1903],{},"作为刚毕业的学生，马上投入投资领域也没啥不可，但对企业的理解自然会弱些。但只要你热爱你干的事情，又知道自己的弱点，慢慢学习总是会明白的。",[827,1905,1906,1907,1909,1910,1912],{},"即使是号称很有企业经验的本人也是在经受很多挫折之后才觉得自己对投资的理解比较好了。我问过",[833,1908,933],{},"在投资中不可以做的事情是什么，他告诉我说：不做空，不借钱，最重要的是不要做不懂的东西。这些年，我在投资里亏掉的美金数以亿计，每一笔都是在违背",[833,1911,933],{},"教导的情况下亏的，而赚到的大钱也都是在自己真正懂的地方赚的。",[827,1914,1915],{},"作为刚出道的学生，书上的东西可能知道得很多，但融到骨子里还需要吃很多亏后才行。所以，如果你马上投入投资行业，最重要的是要保守啊，别因为一个错误就再也爬不起来了。这里唯一我可以保证的是，你肯定会犯错误的。",[827,1917,1918],{},"无论如何，投资是个非常有趣的工作，如果你真准备好了，那就来吧。你真的准备好了吗？（2010-02-04）",[827,1920,1921],{},"网友：有这么多人知道“奥马哈”和“价值投资”？那我们的日子岂不是越来越难过了。",[827,1923,1924,1926],{},[833,1925,835],{}," 不会的。真正懂的人永远是少数。（2010-05-27）",[827,1928,1929],{},"网友：段大哥，对于我们大多数不曾拥有公司的投资者，是不是可以把公司理解成一个家庭？",[827,1931,1932,1934,1935,1938],{},[833,1933,835],{}," 清官难断家务事。最简单的办法也许是把投资理解成租房的生意。",[833,1936,1937],{},"不能理解公司行为的人最好不要碰股票。股市上大多数人最后都亏钱是有道理的，原因大概就是他们无法理解“拥有公司”到底是什么意思。这种理解好像是非常难教会的。知道自己属于哪一类人比很多东西都重要。当你还需要问怎么理解公司是什么的时候，最好别碰投资。"," （2011-05-24）",[827,1940,1941,1944],{},[833,1942,1943],{},"段永平：其实是大多数人拒绝学。如果大多数人真知道的话，他们就应该远离市场。对85%以上的人而言，学习巴菲特最好的办法其实就是远离股市。问题是没人知道是哪85%"," 。（2012-05-04）",[827,1946,1947,1949,1950,1953],{},[833,1948,835],{}," 能说的都说了，可“初学者”就是视而不见我有啥办法？能上道的早晚会的，但和我没关系。不过，",[833,1951,1952],{},"没人可以改变股市上85%以上的人会亏钱的现象。如果非要我指点一下的话，那就是最好远离股市，至少不亏钱，这句话可以帮到股市上85-90%的人。不过，我知道其实不会有人听这句话的"," 。（2012-09-20）",[827,1955,1956,856,1958,1961],{},[833,1957,855],{},[833,1959,1960],{},"个人理解：大部分人确实不应该碰股票市场，问题是有多少肯承认自己就是那部分人呢？当然，不管承不承认，结果都是一样的"," 。（2012-11-17）",[827,1963,1964],{},"网友：跟您学习了几年投资方面的知识，是有越来越简单的感觉，就像1+1=2那样确定无疑。但是在实战成绩上，自己又平庸无奇。您认为“懂投资”需要多长的时间才必然见到“好成绩”？",[827,1966,1967,1970],{},[833,1968,1969],{},"段永平：对85%以上的人而言，懂了简单而不容易的道理后，最好的实战业绩就是远离股市。似乎你好像没真懂吧？"," （2013-09-09）",[827,1972,1973,1976],{},[833,1974,1975],{},"段永平：其实什么股票都不买的人都是赢家，比85%的人要强"," 。（2013-12-22）",[827,1978,1979,1981],{},[833,1980,855],{}," ：有些不碰股票的人，也可以是最好的价值投资者，因为他们懂价值投资最精髓的东西-不懂不碰，而且长期而言，他们的投资回报比股市上85%的人都好，因为他们没在股票上赔钱。",[827,1983,1984],{},"网友：巴菲特也是散户过来的，1950年的时候只有9800美元，相当于现在……？",[827,1986,1987,1989],{},[833,1988,855],{}," ：大概相当于现在20-50万美元。（2010-03-28）",[827,1991,1992],{},"网友：您觉得价值投资对于一个普通的散户（个人投资者）最难的地方在哪？是理念？信仰？坚韧？人性？耐心？学习？抑或是什么？",[827,1994,1995,856,1997,2000],{},[833,1996,855],{},[833,1998,1999],{},"呵呵，看他缺什么。我可是见过很懂巴菲特的散户的，不过后来都变大户了。"," （2010-03-28）",[827,2002,2003],{},"网友：作为普通投资人，国内俗称散户，关于散户做价值投资想听听你有什么好建议？",[827,2005,2006,2009],{},[833,2007,2008],{},"段永平：不知道有没有一个专门针对散户的价值投资法。反正我也很多东西不懂，不懂就不碰。有很多人，一辈子都不懂，所以一辈子都不碰股票，他们也是最好的价值投资者。"," （2010-06-02）",[827,2011,2012],{},"网友：基于散户，段总能有什么好建议么？",[827,2014,2015,2017,2018,2009],{},[833,2016,855],{}," ：我没有任何针对“散户”的特别建议，投资都是一样的，但是",[833,2019,2020],{},"如果你非要定义自己是“散户”，其实最好还是不要碰的好，因为买股票就是买公司，必须有“大户”心态（就是把整个公司买下来的假设），没有这种假设的“投资”长期而言是危险的。",[827,2022,2023],{},"网友：段总，我认为巴菲特玩的根本就不是股票，跟普通的散户投资模式是有区别的，他更注重的是企业更内层的东西，而散户们更关注的只是炒股价罢了。",[827,2025,2026,2029],{},[833,2027,2028],{},"段永平：巴菲特也是从散户开始的"," ，我也是。他的东西不神秘，至少对我的帮助很大。我就是看了巴菲特的东西后开始投资的。",[827,2031,2032],{},"网友X：有，跟着有实业和投资经验的走。",[827,2034,2035,2037],{},[833,2036,835],{}," 哦，我也喜欢看老虎打球。（2012-05-11）",[827,2039,2040],{},"网友：段总会经常逛逛雪球吗？感觉雪球有不少优秀的价值投资者，他们对自己感兴趣的投资标的的研究和理解还是很深刻的。",[827,2042,2043,2045],{},[833,2044,835],{}," 有时候会看看，还是觉得扔雪球的人比较多，滚雪球的人极少，但确实能见到一些扔雪球的高手。",[827,2047,2048],{},"网友G：我想知道怎么区分人家是在滚雪球还是扔雪球呢？",[827,2050,2051,2053],{},[833,2052,835],{}," 一般而言，手里抓着很多球的大概都是扔雪球的。具体表现就是那些什么公司都懂的大概多属于这类。（2013-07-30）",[827,2055,2056],{},"网友：个人专职投资能否作为赖以生存以及实现财富梦想的方式？",[827,2058,2059,2061,2062,2064],{},[833,2060,835],{}," 话糙理不糙，我觉得你不行！当一个人需要问别人自己可不可以靠投资赚钱的时候，多半应该是不行的。投资最重要的是要有独立思考的能力，要能够",[903,2063,222],{"href":1192},"地思考。",[827,2066,2067],{},"网友：请问段总：您觉得职业投资对一个35岁以上的人而言是一条路吗？现在本金只有几十万人民币，很犹豫是否全职做投资？",[827,2069,2070,2072],{},[833,2071,855],{}," ：好像刚刚说过我不建议专门做投资，不太好。如果专职做投资手里还没有很多钱，想不做短线都很难啊。（2010-04-07）",[827,2074,2075],{},"网友：我是个外行，请问做股票这个行业可以把他当成一种事业去做吗？",[827,2077,2078,2080],{},[833,2079,835],{}," 呵呵，有人可以。但一般而言，不把他当事业可能能做得好一些。（2010-05-14）",[827,2082,2083],{},"网友：请问段总您对一个3O多岁\u003C还在上班>只有几十万市值的价值投资者有何忠告，谢谢？我是想做到了100W我每年能赚到20W不上班能行吗？\u003C还有套房子将租出去>",[827,2085,2086,2088],{},[833,2087,835],{}," 我觉得还是上班的好。（2010-05-23）",[827,2090,2091,2093],{},[833,2092,835],{}," 我个人认为大多数基金都很难真正做到价值投资，主要是因为基金的结构造成的。由于基金往往是用年来衡量考核，投资人也往往是根据其上一年的业绩来决定是否投进去。所以我们经常看到的现象是往往在最应该买股票的时候，很多基金却会在市场上狂卖，因为股东们很恐慌，要赎回。而往往股价很高时却有很多基金在狂买，因为这个时候往往有很多股东愿意投钱进来。",[827,2095,2096],{},"基金大部分是收年费的，有钱时总想干点啥，不然股东可能会有意见。",[827,2098,2099],{},"基金一般而言很难搞价值投资，因为一年（甚至一季度）一考核的机制是很难不做短线的。（2010-06-21）",[827,2101,2102],{},"网友：我是价值投资者，最信任我的朋友想委托我帮他们投资，请大道指点！",[827,2104,2105,2107],{},[833,2106,835],{}," 自己喜欢投资是爱好，帮人管投资则属于工作了。不过帮朋友管钱要有失去朋友的准备哈。（2019-09-03）",[827,2109,2110],{},"网友：大道好，我现在只有五十万长期不用的闲置资金做本金，想在AH股做股权投资，如果是您，您会采取什么策略？",[827,2112,2113],{},"大道：我觉得你还是存银行比较安全。（2025-10-25）",[827,2115,2116],{},"网友：段总您好，请问能给我们证券从业人员一点建议吗？不能买股票，只能买场内基金，那是单一赛道重仓还是分多个篮子呢？",[827,2118,2119],{},"大道：如果你有这个问题，换个工作吧？何苦呢。（2026-01-21）",[827,2121,2122,2123,2125,2126,2128],{},"网友：大道总你好，我30岁了，入行比较晚，以前都是做期货短线的，这两年刚接触价投，也是看您和",[833,2124,933],{},"才进入",[903,2127,58],{"href":905},"的。但我一直有些自我怀疑，主要是没挣到钱。我也是通过这次泡泡玛特事件，基本和您网上发布同步时间关注的。",[827,2130,2131],{},"今天看到您发的这条信息，我发现我看这个公司得出的结论和你基本一致，没有巴结您的意思，我就想问下，我是不是也算入咱们派了？我这样坚持走下去是不是正确的路子？我不是怀疑价投的正确性，我是想问下我个人的正确性，能不能在您这里给我迷茫的心态点一盏灯？",[827,2133,2134],{},"大道：我们这派的人是不会问别人这个问题的，问的就肯定不是的。（2026-04-09）",[827,2136,2137,2138,2141],{},"网友：段叔，我想拿10年以上不动的资金150万左右，现在投179元的泡泡玛特和466元的",[833,2139,2140],{},"腾讯","，这个价格可以吗？",[827,2143,2144,2145,2148],{},"大道：需要问的就不该投。每个人的",[903,2146,115],{"href":2147},"\u002Fjihuichengben","不一样，懂的东西也差别很大，你一定要自己明白才可以。（2026-06-04）",[827,2150,2151],{},"网友：我是一名操盘手，目前做的不是很好，做了五年了。对股票很热爱，平时工作不是很忙，周围很多朋友建议我转行当老师，薪资待遇会更好一些。由于投资并不需要盯盘，我想问一下我应该继续现在的工作多看看各类报告还是多转行看看设身处地了解各行各业。我的经济压力并不是很大。很多人说隔行如隔山，但证券行业确实不是太景气。我想工作投资两不误是不是贪心了。",[827,2153,2154,2156],{},[833,2155,855],{}," ：我不了解证券行业，但投资一直很好啊。确实隔行如隔山，我回答不了你的问题。（2019-09-10）",[822,2158,2160],{"id":2159},"第七节-小资金怎么办","第七节 小资金怎么办",[827,2162,2163],{},"网友：没钱时遇到好公司怎么办？",[827,2165,2166,2168],{},[833,2167,835],{}," 钱多多买点，钱少少买点呗。",[827,2170,2171],{},"网友：假如您现在资金量很少，该如何投资呢？",[827,2173,2174,2176,2177,2180],{},[833,2175,855],{}," ：如果不考虑手续费的话，投资什么和你有多少钱没关系。没关系！不过和精力有关系，也就是说如果钱太多时可能没有足够多时间找到足够多好股票。钱太少又没有足够开销去研究企业。",[833,2178,2179],{},"很多人觉得没法学巴菲特是因为巴菲特有太多的钱，可我基本肯定这么说的人是不懂巴菲特的"," 。（2010-03-11）",[827,2182,2183],{},"网友：“钱太少又没有足够开销去研究企业。”对这句话有点好奇，您研究企业的开销是说哪方面的呢？",[827,2185,2186,2188],{},[833,2187,855],{}," ：比方说拜访公司，走访市场，了解产品（包括对手）等等。想长期拿得住一只股票必须全面了解所持公司。（2010-03-13）",[827,2190,2191],{},"网友T：我总觉得没有大资本做不了价值投资，做散户更不容易了．只能做短的，还不一定有收成！",[827,2193,2194,2197],{},[833,2195,2196],{},"段永平：有100块就行。巴菲特就是100块开始的"," 。（2010-03-27）",[827,2199,2200],{},"网友T：我认为有巴菲特那种耐心境界可能没几个人，大多都是发财心切的，这也是投资的大忌，您说是不是！",[827,2202,2203,2205],{},[833,2204,835],{}," 恩，所以能发财的少。（2010-03-27）",[827,2207,2208],{},"网友D：学生对您这句话的理解是：不在钱多少，重在自己有没有建立这个投资观念，操作能力，投资习惯，学生我现在拿少部分钱来进行价值投资训练，小资金若训练相对成功了，就能操作大的资金，因为投资道理是一样的，是吗？",[827,2210,2211,2213],{},[833,2212,835],{}," 是的（2010-03-27）",[827,2215,2216],{},"网友：最近一直看关于巴菲特的东西，下面是一段巴菲特股东会的对话，我有些不明白：",[827,2218,2219],{},"QUESTION – AREA 9： New York",[827,2221,2222],{},"问及巴菲特如果要获得一个50%的回报该如何投资",[827,2224,2225],{},"巴菲特：如果管理的是一笔小资金，我行事会完全不同。",[827,2227,2228],{},"芒格：现在没道理再来想这个问题。",[827,2230,2231],{},"巴菲特上面说的“管理小资金，行事完全不同”具体指什么呢？",[827,2233,2234,2236],{},[833,2235,855],{}," ：我猜他的意思是说，如果他没有这么多钱的话，他的回报比例会更高。那样的话，他就可以关注更多小公司，从而找到回报比例更高的公司。现在他钱太多，又没办法找到很多像他一样理解投资的人帮他管钱，所以很难有像以前钱少时那么高的回报了。（2010-03-30）",[827,2238,2239],{},"网友：段大哥你说过做投资的两个重要方面：钱的问题和做正确的投资。对于我来说感觉自己做正确的投资这个问题可以过关。但钱的量的问题长期是一个问题。段大哥对于我这种形式的投资者有什么建议呢？",[827,2241,2242,2244],{},[833,2243,855],{}," ：钱的量的问题短期可能会有点麻烦，长期就不应该是问题了。我的建议就是慢慢来。慢就是快。（2010-04-04）",[827,2246,2247],{},"网友：我是一个狂热的价值投资者，很想在父母有生之年做出点成绩给他们看，但是价值投资需要很长时间，我们散户资金又不大，段总有好的建议吗？感激不尽。",[827,2249,2250,2252],{},[833,2251,855],{}," ：没办法。多数成功者都是慢慢来的。（2010-05-22）",[827,2254,2255,2257],{},[833,2256,835],{}," 其实小额投资者有机会应该去找些看得懂的中小型公司，比较有机会回报高些。跟着大盘股很难有大收获的。（2013-02-01）",[827,2259,2260],{},"网友T：为什么不赞成小额投资者投苹果，价值投资不分投资金额的大小呀？",[827,2262,2263,2265],{},[833,2264,855],{}," ：首先，这种大公司会出来的消息比较多，小额投资者多数对投资的概念还没有建立，很容易被震几下就出局了；另外，像苹果这种公司在目前的状况下很难有10倍或更多的回报。我觉得小额投资者也许应该关心自己明白但没有那么多人关注的公司，如果能找到这种公司的话，应该比苹果这类公司的回报好。",[827,2267,2268],{},"有时候有些小公司确实很便宜，比如前段时间美股里的一些地产公司，但没有成交量，不适合大额投资者投。（2013-03-02）",[827,2270,2271],{},"网友：请教段哥，巴菲特说：“如果我现在只有10-100万美元，我会在石头下面找小公司的机会”。这句话有蕴含捡烟蒂股的意思么？（2013-05-28）",[827,2273,2274,2276],{},[833,2275,835],{}," 好的小公司成长机会高，但对于大资金而言没用，因为好不易找个好的小公司却放不了多少钱进去。我不鼓励小额投资人投苹果这类公司也是类似的道理。小额投资人或许更应该耐心地从生活中发现还很便宜的小的好公司。",[827,2278,2279],{},"网友T：您指的小公司，是单指小市值公司吧？",[827,2281,2282,2284],{},[833,2283,835],{}," 这里小的意思应该是指市值。如果五年找到一个未来发展很好的小公司，对于小额投资人来说回报应该会比跟着市场投要好。对于那些大小公司都看不懂的人来说，反正也都是一样的。一般来讲，小公司比大公司要容易懂一些。公司大到一定程度后会容易受到非商业因素的影响，小公司则受到影响的概率要低很多。（2013-05-29）",[827,2286,2287],{},"网友补充：我觉得百万以内的资金根本不用进股票市场，直接投到自己的或者身边人熟悉的小生意上更安全可控。我最近在“现实世界”里的回报比股票里的高多了，虽然要出很多汗操很多心，但是也学到很多知识。自己run过一点小business也能对看报表有很大的帮助，将来资金大了以后再买股票可能可以眼光更准。",[827,2289,2290,2292,2293,2296],{},[833,2291,835],{}," 非常同意你的观点。",[833,2294,2295],{},"本来投上市公司的钱就应该是闲钱"," ，如果自己能找到生意，那当然应该投自己的生意。其实投上市公司的内在道理是一样的，差别是不用自己费力去经营而已，很多时候甚至还能请到比自己更能干的人去经营。",[827,2298,2299],{},"记得很久以前在学校碰到一个老师问，说自己不懂投资但需要管理自己的小小财富怎么办，我说你就都交给巴菲特吧，全部买上巴菲特的股票，怎么着都会比自己管好的，还不用操心。（2013-05-29）",[827,2301,2302],{},"网友：我也想问段大哥：资金不大时我们是捡烟头还是选择优秀的公司？我一直对这个问题有点困惑。",[827,2304,2305,2307],{},[833,2306,835],{}," 对绝大多数人而言，其实资金大小一点关系都没有。（2013-12-28）",[827,2309,2310],{},"网友s：如果你觉得自己是小投资者，那你很可能会一直是小投资者的。呵呵，段总有时说话好笑又有哲理。",[827,2312,2313,2315,2316,2319],{},[833,2314,855],{}," ：“",[833,2317,2318],{},"小投资者”之所以很容易一直是“小投资者”的原因也许有很多，但个人认为最重要的是他们可能会因为自己小而想赚快钱，大钱，从而铤而走险而不追求真理。其实这个世界上没有投资人不想赚大钱，知道什么不可为比知道可为什么要重要的多。"," （2015-04-28）",[827,2321,2322,2324],{},[833,2323,855],{}," ：大规模的资金都是从小规模发展过来的。（2017-04-28）",[827,2326,2327],{},"网友：对小资金而言。不知道段哥是否可以分享一下您的看法。",[827,2329,2330,2332],{},[833,2331,855],{}," ：小资金的人如果懂投资的话是可以找到更好的机会的，老巴好像叫翻石头，或者叫找石头下的金子。大资金这么做不合算而已。（2019-03-15）",[827,2334,2335],{},"网友：对于大多数小资金投资者，是否可以参与一些在认知范围内明显的泡沫，或者恐慌呢？比如08年金融危机，贸易战封杀的中兴通讯之类的，短时间抓住市场的错误定价。请您给小资金投资者一些建议。",[827,2337,2338,2340],{},[833,2339,835],{}," 如果你真的能抓住市场的错误定价，你就已经不是小资金了。我认为“慢慢的变富”其实是最快的办法。投资是个好玩的游戏。（2019-03-21）",[827,2342,2343],{},"网友D：请教段总，假如巴菲特一开始（小资金时）就买入优秀的企业而不是捡了不少烟蒂，现在会更富有还是可能不如现在？段总是否可以分享一下您的看法？",[827,2345,2346,2348],{},[833,2347,835],{}," 啥都有个过程，老巴也是慢慢进步的。",[827,2350,2351],{},"网友：巴老说：如果我现在只有10-100万美元，我会在石头下面找小公司的机会。您也在博客中这么说过：好的小公司成长机会高，但对于大资金而言没用，因为好不易找个好的小公司却放不了多少钱进去。我不鼓励小额投资人投苹果这类公司也是类似的道理。小额投资人或许更应该耐心地从生活中发现还很便宜的小的好公司。",[827,2353,2354],{},"我想问：那些小公司中没有生意模式比茅台苹果还好的。对于小额投资人来说就去选择生意模式不如茅台苹果但是也不错但是市值不大的企业吗？",[827,2356,2357],{},"我有点笨，这个问题想了好久也想的不太明白，迫不得已来打扰！",[827,2359,2360,856,2362],{},[833,2361,855],{},[833,2363,2364],{},"投资的原理是一样的。找小公司也是要找那些商业模式好，企业文化好，但规模和市值都比较小，大家还没发现的那种。现在回过头来想，多数小额投资者投小公司有机会情况会更糟，因为小公司往往资料比较少，小额投资者更容易中招。",[827,2366,2367,2370,2371,2374],{},[833,2368,2369],{},"但假如我自己作为一个小额投资者（依然比较懂企业），如果有时间的话，我会努力去找那些我认为大有前景的小公司"," （这个做法就叫做风投）",[833,2372,2373],{},"，这样回报会高不少"," 。（2019-04-30）",[827,2376,2377],{},"网友：国内现在有指数基金了，沪深50、沪深300、中小企业500……基本上每个基金公司都有。我有定投，长期来看收益比较安全吧。",[827,2379,2380,2382],{},[833,2381,855],{}," ：对多数没太多时间分析公司的人来说，也许股市暴跌的时候买合适的指数是个挺好的办法，比较安全，能睡好觉。（2010-05-16）",[827,2384,2385],{},"网友：我们常说买股票就是买企业，但对于一个没做过企业甚至都没在企业呆过压根不懂企业的人而言要买家企业的难度可想而知。",[827,2387,2388,2390],{},[833,2389,855],{}," ：很多人其实多少都懂某个或某些企业。如果一个都不懂，最好的办法还是自己少碰。如果能找到好的指数和好的价钱就最好，但我不了解国内是否有指数卖？（2010-05-16）",[827,2392,2393],{},"网友：想问下段总，怎么才能确定指数便宜不便宜？或者采用怎样的投资方式去投资指数？",[827,2395,2396,2398],{},[833,2397,855],{}," ：我也不知道怎么才叫便宜。大体上，还是应该了解这个指数是由什么组成的，然后把整体看成一个企业，然后就会有是否便宜的感觉了。我发现指数有无穷多种，而且可以随时增加很多种，所以买指数其实未必就比买股票容易。不过，某些已经很长时间的指数是相对容易理解的，比如S&P500的指数等。（2011-03-26）",[827,2400,2401],{},"网友：您能否开个关于指数基金的新贴，让大家讨论讨论，对于我们这些资金、精力、时间、知识和判断能力都很有限的投资者来说，指数基金也许是我们很好的选择。",[827,2403,2404,2406],{},[833,2405,835],{}," 国内的指数不清楚，美股的倒是可以考虑。（2011-07-08）",[827,2408,2409,2411],{},[833,2410,835],{}," 意即他们拿了你的钱去买指数基金，还收你手续费和佣金。（2012-06-26）",[827,2413,2414,2415,2417],{},"网友：请教您对指数基金的看法？因为弄懂一个公司太难了，自己也要上班。",[833,2416,933],{},"也说过指数基金最终会跑赢绝大多数股票投资者。",[827,2419,2420,2422,2423,2425],{},[833,2421,835],{}," 好像",[833,2424,933],{},"早就讲过，对大多数投资人而言，在指数便宜的时候投资指数是最好的办法。我同意。",[827,2427,2428,2430],{},[833,2429,933],{},"指的是美国的指数。我想，85%以上的投资者买指数的结果会更好，问题是这85%指的都是谁呢？很少有人会认为自己属于85%的，你能这么想说明你有智慧哈。",[827,2432,2433],{},"据说85%-90%的人在股市上都是亏钱的，另外可能还有5%的人打平？这些人为什么不买标普500呢？长期来讲至少也是接近10%的复合年回报吧(大致，自己没真的研究过)。问题是这85%-90%的人也都觉得自己能打败标普500?他们可能既不了解标普500，也不了解他们自己？这其实是个很有意思的问题，不过不是关于投资的。",[827,2435,2436],{},"对在股市上老是亏钱的人们而言，买进标普500可能是个好的办法，就当存银行了，利息还高。（2013-04-03）",[827,2438,2439],{},"网友：我这几年的投资，基本上都是指数基金一半，股票一半，但是也一直对这一比一的投资比例有点纠结，不知段总能否帮忙给点建议？",[827,2441,2442,2444],{},[833,2443,855],{}," ：投指数就是投国家。（2013-05-20）",[827,2446,2447],{},"网友：您说的没错，他指的是标普500指数基金，标普500指数基金etf服务费是0.05%，确实好低。比起来，我买的那个几乎有点儿坑人。",[827,2449,2450],{},"我买的时候主要觉得这个折价率有点夸张，以前从来没接触过基金，但觉得价格总是要围绕价值上下波动才对，（同样水平的服务费，有些etf还有溢价的），17%的折扣，可以弥补12年的管理费了。您说到用30年的结果计算，我确实感到惭愧，没想到那么远。",[827,2452,2453,2455],{},[833,2454,835],{}," 不打算拿10年的股票为什么会打算拿10天呢？如果你打算拿30年的话，你就会觉得1%以上的年费率有点疯狂了。谢谢你把老巴的东西找出来哈，我没注意过，只是从逻辑上猜的。（2015-09-10）",[827,2457,2458],{},"网友：段总您认为．买指数和分散投各种公司有么区别啊？",[827,2460,2461,2463],{},[833,2462,855],{}," ：指数分散的更均匀些。我觉得要么买公司，因为你比较了解。要么就在指数低时买指数，风险相对小。买指数前还是最好能大致看懂是什么指数。（2010-05-17）",[827,2465,2466],{},"网友J：不是太理解小资金为何更适合格雷厄姆的投资方式，自己觉得无论资金太小，寻找优秀的企业是第一位的，其中的逻辑就是成长股是时间的好朋友，退一步说，即使买贵了，将来总会回来的，而平庸的企业却不是时间的好朋友。望段大哥能解惑。",[827,2468,2469,2472],{},[833,2470,2471],{},"段永平：我理解的大概意思是，小资金的人对企业的理解一般也容易弱些，不容易看懂伟大、优秀、以及普通企业的区别，所以多数人都是容易从烟蒂开始的。只有很少的人最后会真正悟到投资的道理，并同时具备看懂伟大企业的能力。"," （2015-01-18）",[827,2474,2475],{},"网友：资金不大时是捡烟蒂还是选择优秀的公司？",[827,2477,2478,2480],{},[833,2479,835],{}," 对绝大多数人而言，其实和资金大小一点关系都没有。(2013-12-18)",[827,2482,2483],{},"小资金的人对企业的理解一般也容易弱些，不容易看懂伟大、优秀企业与普通企业的区别，所以多数人都是容易从烟蒂开始的。只有很少的人最后会真正悟到投资的道理，并同时具备看懂伟大企业的能力。",[827,2485,2486],{},"“小资金的人如果懂投资的话是可以找到更好的机会的”，这其实是个伪命题，因为小资金能懂投资的概率也是小的。(2025-03-05)",[827,2488,2489],{},"网友：要么投资你所在的行业中你认为好的优秀的企业，因为这是你的能力圈。要么在你认为股市悲观的时候，定期的买入指数基金；或者你买入一些在指数中的你认为好的伟大企业，就那么几只，组建自己的指数基金，长期投资，减少换手率。我是这样认为的，各位怎么看。",[827,2491,2492,2494],{},[833,2493,835],{}," 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