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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":443,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":26,"date":9,"description":445,"editor":2961,"extension":2962,"meta":2963,"navigation":2964,"order":446,"path":2965,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2966,"seoDescription":445,"seoTitle":2967,"slug":444,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":944,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2968,"sourceStatus":2969,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2970,"stem":2971,"summary":445,"tags":2972,"type":435,"updatedAt":2975,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"__hash__":2976,"_collection":2977},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-03.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2951},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,844,852,859,864,867,876,879,882,885,888,891,897,900,905,908,913,916,921,924,929,932,937,940,946,953,956,965,970,973,982,987,990,995,998,1007,1010,1013,1019,1022,1025,1028,1038,1044,1047,1056,1059,1071,1074,1077,1082,1085,1090,1093,1098,1104,1107,1112,1115,1118,1121,1124,1130,1135,1154,1157,1160,1166,1178,1182,1185,1190,1193,1198,1201,1204,1211,1214,1217,1220,1223,1228,1231,1237,1240,1247,1252,1255,1260,1263,1266,1269,1272,1275,1278,1283,1286,1291,1296,1301,1306,1313,1316,1322,1327,1330,1335,1338,1343,1347,1363,1382,1392,1395,1400,1403,1406,1412,1415,1420,1423,1432,1435,1438,1444,1447,1456,1461,1469,1472,1477,1480,1486,1491,1494,1504,1507,1515,1520,1528,1534,1537,1540,1547,1550,1555,1558,1563,1570,1575,1578,1583,1593,1615,1618,1624,1628,1635,1644,1647,1656,1659,1668,1673,1676,1679,1682,1685,1690,1693,1698,1701,1706,1709,1714,1717,1722,1725,1730,1733,1738,1741,1746,1757,1766,1769,1774,1777,1782,1785,1791,1794,1799,1802,1807,1810,1819,1822,1827,1830,1836,1839,1844,1847,1852,1855,1860,1863,1868,1871,1876,1879,1884,1887,1896,1899,1904,1913,1916,1919,1924,1927,1932,1935,1944,1947,1952,1955,1960,1963,1968,1971,1976,1979,1984,1987,1996,1999,2008,2017,2024,2027,2030,2038,2041,2047,2050,2053,2066,2073,2077,2080,2085,2088,2091,2097,2100,2105,2108,2113,2122,2125,2130,2135,2138,2141,2146,2149,2154,2157,2162,2165,2168,2171,2176,2179,2184,2187,2192,2195,2204,2207,2212,2215,2218,2224,2227,2232,2235,2240,2243,2248,2251,2256,2263,2266,2271,2274,2279,2290,2293,2307,2310,2315,2318,2323,2326,2335,2340,2343,2348,2351,2356,2359,2380,2385,2388,2391,2396,2399,2404,2407,2412,2415,2420,2428,2433,2436,2441,2444,2449,2452,2461,2464,2469,2475,2478,2481,2487,2493,2499,2502,2507,2510,2513,2518,2521,2526,2529,2532,2535,2543,2546,2552,2562,2566,2569,2578,2581,2584,2589,2592,2597,2602,2605,2614,2617,2625,2631,2634,2639,2642,2647,2650,2653,2659,2662,2665,2674,2677,2680,2688,2693,2696,2701,2704,2709,2712,2718,2721,2726,2730,2738,2741,2746,2770,2776,2779,2785,2788,2793,2799,2804,2807,2812,2815,2818,2823,2826,2831,2838,2841,2844,2849,2852,2857,2860,2865,2868,2873,2879,2884,2893,2896,2899,2902,2907,2910,2913,2916,2919,2922,2927,2930,2935,2938,2946],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-什么叫看懂","第一节 什么叫看懂",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：我日志里面有一篇专门请教你的问题，很多困扰我很久的问题，望不惜宝贵时间赐教，非常感谢。",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 如果我没有理解错的话，你的问题其实就是对“不懂不做”时，什么情况能叫懂。",[827,838,839,840,843],{},"我认为“懂”不是个绝对的概念，大概就是“毛估估懂”的意思。懂不懂只有自己才知道，任何别人都很难评价。比如说我觉得我懂通用电气(",[833,841,842],{},"GE",")的文化的价值，但不懂的人就会在其很便宜的时候把股票卖给我。",[827,845,846,847,851],{},"从投资的角度而言，当你觉得你买的股票掉而你真的不受影响的时候，你大概就是懂了(不是心理因素)，不然就有可能是在",[848,849,125],"a",{"href":850},"\u002Ftouji","(尤其是当你觉得害怕的时候)。",[827,853,854,855,858],{},"比如，雅虎(",[833,856,857],{},"Yahoo",")最近从今年的高点掉下来不少，我也重新审视过我投雅虎的理由，发现好的理由并没有任何减少，负面的东西也没有任何增加，我也就没有任何事情需要担心的了。(2010-05-20)",[827,860,861,863],{},[833,862,835],{}," “懂”的定义不要太理想化。“懂”并不是能看到未来一切的“水晶球”，能看到一些重要的东西就很不错了。长远而言，我觉得投资实际上是个概率事件，真正“懂”的人犯错误的概率低，最后的回报高。很多时候不能简单地用某人对某只股票的行为来判断他对投资的理解。(2010-08-30)",[827,865,866],{},"网友D：那什么叫自己懂企业了？真正的懂。",[827,868,869,871,872,875],{},[833,870,835],{}," 其实没人懂所有的企业，所以没有懂企业的说法，但可以有懂某个或某几个企业的说法。",[833,873,874],{},"不懂企业的人是很难懂企业的，不懂这句话的人也很难懂这句话。但要懂这句话可能需要很多年的理解，而且很多年也未必就一定懂。"," 不过，如果把企业看成一个在出租的房子或商铺也许能对理解有点帮助？（2012-06-23）",[827,877,878],{},"网友：大道你好，请问什么算“懂”，什么算“不懂”？我发现每个人对“懂”的定义不一样，非常的主观。",[827,880,881],{},"大道：你说的对，但没真懂是很容易亏钱的。没人可以100%懂的，但概率上懂得生意的人赚钱的概率会大很多。（2025-12-04）",[827,883,884],{},"网友：大道，怎么知道懂没懂？",[827,886,887],{},"大道：那就是不懂的意思，妥妥的。（2025-12-04）",[827,889,890],{},"网友：请教一下段总：要看懂一个公司，所谓“懂”的标准是什么？用哪些依据判断自己“懂了”比较合适？",[827,892,893,896],{},[833,894,895],{},"段永平：对于上市公司而言，懂的标准是当他大掉的时候你非常想再买多些，而不是到处打听“发生什么事了”，或者老想着要卖掉。"," （2011-01-09）",[827,898,899],{},"网友：段总的意思是，所谓的“懂”就是要打心眼里铁了心的认定它好，哪怕它下跌，反而更高兴，因为可以加大买进。不过这个是从唯心出发。",[827,901,902,904],{},[833,903,835],{}," 当你有“懂”的感觉时，这个“懂”绝对不是唯心的。比如，泰格伍兹很“懂”高尔夫，但如果有人问什么叫“懂”高尔夫时，想想他会如何回答？（2011-01-16）",[827,906,907],{},"网友O：属于心理素质不行。",[827,909,910,912],{},[833,911,835],{}," 跟心理素质没关系，是因为你不明白所谓“价值”为何物。你根本就没明白上市公司和不上市公司的区别，所以你下次还会恐惧。（2011-10-25）",[827,914,915],{},"网友O：上市公司和不上市公司的区别怎么说？",[827,917,918,920],{},[833,919,835],{}," 去看看老巴怎么说。（2011-10-25）",[827,922,923],{},"网友：怎样才能判断自己是否懂一家企业，您有什么标准吗？",[827,925,926,928],{},[833,927,835],{}," 简单讲就是企业生命周期赚的钱你能看懂。（2015-03-10）",[827,930,931],{},"网友：最近有一个疑惑。“懂”公司，究竟怎么判断是真“懂”了，还是假“懂”？",[827,933,934,936],{},[833,935,835],{}," 其实很简单，当你还有疑惑时就表示你还不懂或懂得不够哈。（2018-06-17）",[827,938,939],{},"网友：怎么才算看懂一家公司呢，如果能想明白这家公司几年后大概率能轻松而稳定的赚多少钱这样就算看明白吗？好比某家公司今年利润是400多亿，应该在未来某年利润会达到1000亿，再结合现在的市值是否可以得出现在依然值得买入的结论呢？",[827,941,942,945],{},[833,943,944],{},"段永平"," ：看懂了一家公司的最简单的标准就是你不会想去问别人“我是不是看懂了这家公司”。（2019-07-24）",[827,947,948,949,952],{},"网友：经常听您说无论是针对投资大公司，还是小公司，只投自己懂的标的。我也是经常想，从商业模式、",[848,950,135],{"href":951},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","、市场价格这三个维度去考察，这个懂的边界或标准是什么？说直接一点，考察到什么程度才算真正懂？否则就会出現您經常说的自认为知道，其实还不知道的状况，也会出现经常因考虑欠缺某个关键因子而出现投资失误的情况。",[827,954,955],{},"我记得芒格先生有个什么类似筛选公司的「过滤清单」。",[827,957,958,960,961,964],{},[833,959,835],{}," 这里没有一个公式，但你真的懂的时候你会知道的。最重要的东西是你能真正忽略市场的波动，聚焦在生意上。",[833,962,963],{},"想象你打算买一家公司，拿着10年都不上市你依然能睡好觉，那你大概就懂了。"," 或者倒过来也一样，当你觉得一家公司10年内肯定会有大麻烦的时候，你大概不会想买的吧？（2019-05-04）",[827,966,967,969],{},[833,968,835],{}," 其实愿意化繁为简的人很少，大家往往觉得那样显得没水平，就像买茅台一样，没啥意思。（2019-08-14）",[827,971,972],{},"那些买了一点点的不算看懂了，如果真的看懂了却只买了一点点是说不过去的。",[827,974,975,978,979],{},[833,976,977],{},"我对看懂的定义非常简单，就是敢下重注。按","巴菲特",[833,980,981],{},"最多分散到6个公司的说法(我很同意哈)，看懂并敢下注的比例至少要占1\u002F6吧？不然都应该叫“观察仓”？",[827,983,984],{},[833,985,986],{},"这里不是说一定要达到1\u002F6的意思，因为有时候价格(机会)并不是那么合适。(2024-04-21)",[827,988,989],{},"网友：只要你投的公司是自己明白的生意，就不容易恐惧也不容易贪婪，还是会恐惧和贪婪的。",[827,991,992,994],{},[833,993,835],{}," 恐惧程度和了解程度成反比。",[827,996,997],{},"网友：投资中什么最重要？",[827,999,1000,1002,1003,1006],{},[833,1001,835],{}," 我个人的理解是缺什么什么重要。",[833,1004,1005],{},"投资最重要的是投在你真正懂的东西上。这句话的潜台词是投在你真正认为会赚钱的地方（公司）。"," 我对所谓赚钱的定义是：回报比长期无风险债券高。一个人是否了解一个公司能否赚钱，和他的学历并没有必然的关系。",[827,1008,1009],{},"虽然学历高的人一般学习的能力会强些，但学校并不教如何投资，因为真正懂投资的都很难在学校任教，不然投资大师就该是些教授了。不过在学校里可以学到很多最基本的东西，比如如何做财务分析等等，这些对了解投资目标会很有帮助。",[827,1011,1012],{},"无论学历高低，一个人总会懂些什么，而你懂的东西可能有一天会让你发现机会。我自己抓住的机会也好像和学历没什么必然的联系。",[827,1014,1015,1016,1018],{},"比如我们能在网易上赚到100多倍是因为我在做小霸王时就有了很多对游戏的理解，这种理解学校是不会教的，书上也没有，财报里也看不出来。我也曾试图告诉别人我的理解，结果发现好难。又比如我当时敢重手买GE，是因为作为企业经营者，我们跟踪GE的",[848,1017,135],{"href":951},"很多年，我从心底认为GE是家伟大的公司。",[827,1020,1021],{},"我说的“任何人都可以从事投资”的意思是我认为并没有一个“只有‘某种人’才可以投资”的定义。但适合投资的人的比例应该是很小的。可能是因为投资的原则太简单，而简单的东西往往是最难的吧。",[827,1023,1024],{},"顺便说一句什么是“简单”的“投资”原则：当你在买一只股票时，你就是在买这家公司！简单吗？难吗？（博文：《投资中什么最重要》，2010-02-07）",[827,1026,1027],{},"网友：（关于懂）就想找大家确认下“是不是把这个公司当作我马上要合伙的公司来考虑，这个生意人的能力和性格如何，这个公司的商业模式好不好，企业文化好不好，护城河大不大，有没有可以加价的能力，这几个方面去综合考虑，如果这几方面都好，成功的概率就会很大，反之风险就会很大”呢。不知道我这样想对不对，请大道和球友指点下。",[827,1029,1030,1033,1034,1037],{},[833,1031,1032],{},"段永平：举个所谓懂的例子："," 比如苹果，我在2011年买苹果的时候，苹果大概3000亿市值（当时股价310\u002F7=44），手里有1000亿",[848,1035,79],{"href":1036},"\u002Fjingxianjin","，那时候利润大概不到200亿。以我对苹果的理解，我认为苹果未来5年左右赢利大概率会涨很多，所以我就猜个500亿（去年595亿）。",[827,1039,1040,1041],{},"所以当时想的东西非常简单，用2000亿左右市值买个目前赚接近200亿／年，未来5左右会赚到500亿／年或以上的公司（而且还会往后继续很好）。如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。",[833,1042,1043],{},"但得到这个结论非常不容易，对我来说至少20年功夫吧。能得到这个结论，就叫懂了。",[827,1045,1046],{},"不懂则千万千万别碰，我有个球友320\u002F7=46买了一些，结果一个回调，310\u002F7就卖了（现在苹果加上分红可能早就超过200了），还跟我讲为什么要卖的道理，从此我不再跟他说投资了。（2019-05-20）",[827,1048,1049,1050,1052,1053,1055],{},"网友：大道和方丈的对话提到买",[833,1051,596],{},"的事说：“你说我看懂了吗，我要看懂了，我应该把整个",[833,1054,596],{},"买下来。所以懂这个东西，我也不知道是什么意思，但是我大致觉得他们是能挣钱的，我觉得我的投资风险不会特别的高。”",[827,1057,1058],{},"我理解，大道那一段话就是对“懂”的解释：懂不等于能预测一切，而是能判断收益可能极高，损失可能极小。",[827,1060,1061,1062,1064,1065,1067,1068,1070],{},"补充，关于大道对",[833,1063,596],{},"的“懂”：1.我是做游戏出身的，我知道人们需要游戏（这一项在那个年代绝大部分人是不懂的）。2.我和",[833,1066,596],{},"的团队聊过，他们是真的热爱游戏，这一项符合追求利润之上的东西。3当时",[833,1069,596],{},"持有的现金比市值还高，就像有人要100块钱卖给你一件衣服，而这件衣服的口袋里装了120块钱的现金，这是极罕见的不合逻辑的，是市场的情绪造成的。",[827,1072,1073],{},"大道：很多人对“懂”可能有个误会，以为你拿了个水晶球，看到了未来的一切及其他。其实，投资是个充满了变数的游戏，所有合理的行为都是基于概率的。（2025-12-05）",[827,1075,1076],{},"网友：段总能否说说460美金的苹果与160元人民币的茅台哪个更便宜？",[827,1078,1079,1081],{},[833,1080,835],{}," 取决于你懂哪个以及懂多少。（2013-03-23）",[827,1083,1084],{},"网友：昨天向您请教怎么投资股票，您说要懂公司。请问“懂”字怎么理解呢？一个普通人的，很平凡的人，一个没有技巧的人从哪些方面去“懂”呢？",[827,1086,1087,1089],{},[833,1088,835],{}," 这有点像一个不会打球的人问老虎怎么打高尔夫？这其实是个非常好的问题，还真不知道怎么回答。也许没事看看老巴的股东信？如果看不懂就不要碰投资。如果不碰投资的话，至少你比大多数人的投资表现要好的，因为据说85%的人都是亏钱的，这还没算他们的时间成本和机会成本。（2019-05-19）",[827,1091,1092],{},"网友：你怎么经常看错东西？投公司千万不要投错了！",[827,1094,1095,1097],{},[833,1096,835],{}," 呵呵，那时确实我也“跟进”买了一些我自己觉得大概懂，但不是很透的股票，而且也都赚到钱了，但大多也没办法长时间拿得住。那时候太多便宜东西了，就是不知道哪个是地雷。老巴中地雷的机会比平均低非常非常多，这次金融危机他一个都没中，这里面的道理会去想的人不多啊。（2010-07-27）",[827,1099,1100,1103],{},[833,1101,1102],{},"如果一个人一辈子能看懂一次就可能表现比95%的人好，如果一个都看不懂也可以表现比80%的人好。投资最重要的是投在你真正懂的东西上。"," （2012-04-05）",[827,1105,1106],{},"网友：请教段总，怎样避免因担心市场大涨之后要大跌，害怕利润又没有了，我想段总都经历过市场的大幅波动，怎样才能保持稳定心态拿稳好股票呢？",[827,1108,1109,1111],{},[833,1110,835],{}," 如果你买了自己不明白的东西，你的担心是有道理的。有担心的时候就卖了吧，没人有什么办法让人能够拿住自己不懂的公司的。（2015-04-28）",[827,1113,1114],{},"网友：其实也有可能是我还是没弄懂这家公司，这也是挺难的事情了。",[827,1116,1117],{},"大道：啥叫有可能？太有可能了哈（2026-08-27）",[827,1119,1120],{},"网友：飞机上无聊的时间最适合反复翻下大道，这些话其实早看过几遍，但是理解的深浅差异蛮大的。段总的一些观点背后的逻辑与道理，需要常思常想，才能明白一二。",[827,1122,1123],{},"大道：是啊，老有人问怎么看懂企业，可我说了那么多他也不看。（2026-07-19）",[827,1125,1126,1127,1129],{},"网友：投资股票，你最热衷什么行业？什么行业确定性最大？",[833,1128,978],{},"提出最好的企业是不需要投入大量资本于更新而能维持优势、创造利润的企业。从这点，很多技术型企业就被踢出去了。而您好像投资了不少技术企业？",[827,1131,1132,1134],{},[833,1133,835],{}," 呵呵，行业问题说不清，好像存在的大多行业里都有好公司。",[827,1136,1137,1139,1140,1143,1144,1143,1147,1150,1151,1153],{},[833,1138,978],{},"有几条东西：",[848,1141,33],{"href":1142},"\u002Fnengliquan","、",[848,1145,74],{"href":1146},"\u002Fhuchenghe",[848,1148,101],{"href":1149},"\u002Fanquanbianji","，他没说哪个行业。",[833,1152,978],{},"追求的是产品很难发生变化的公司，所以他买了后就可以长久持有。但他也说过，如果你能看懂变化，你将会赚到大钱。归根到底，买股票就是买公司。",[827,1155,1156],{},"无论你看懂的是长久还是变化，只要是真懂，便宜时就是好机会。",[827,1158,1159],{},"如果一两年能看到一个这样的好机会，你的回报一定会很好。(2010-05-08)",[827,1161,1162,1163,1165],{},"网友：看了你的投资语录，里面有句话：",[833,1164,978],{},"说能看懂变化的人会赚大钱。这个变化是什么，或者怎么理解这句话？我的理解是看得懂这个公司未来可能比预计的赚更多的钱，但还是感觉理解上没抓住精髓。",[827,1167,1168,1170,1171,1174,1175,1177],{},[833,1169,835],{}," 举个例子你就明白了：10年前我没看懂nvda，你要看懂了你就能赚大钱。同理，十多年前我看懂了",[833,1172,1173],{},"苹果","，二十多年前我看懂了",[833,1176,596],{},"，你也没能赚到大钱。（2025-10-13）",[822,1179,1181],{"id":1180},"第二节-概率充要条件与把握度","第二节 概率、充要条件与把握度",[827,1183,1184],{},"网友：芒格认为，我与巴菲特工作这么多年，他这个人的优点之一是他总是自觉地从决策树的角度思考问题，并从数学的排列与组合的角度思考问题。",[827,1186,1187,1189],{},[833,1188,835],{}," 我想他这里排列组合的意思大概是指概率的意思。总的来讲，这一段芒格的意思大概是认为巴菲特总是能理性地思考问题，这点对长期价值投资是非常重要的。",[827,1191,1192],{},"投资并不需要高深的数学，但基本的概率概念还是需要的。如果没学过概率，或者没学懂的话，简单跟随就行了。比如，没必要自己去试扔硬币正反面的实验。又比如，有博友说他去赌场下了10万次注还是赢的。有概率概念的人一看就知道这哥们的记忆有问题。（2010-04-18）",[827,1194,1195,1197],{},[833,1196,835],{}," 虽然投资不需要大学文凭，但上过大学往往还是有帮助的（不是充要条件），因为大学里学到的东西主要是学习方法。",[827,1199,1200],{},"充要条件是什么？那是初中学的吧？反正我是初中学平面几何时学的，但好像是很久以后才真的明白。",[827,1202,1203],{},"充要条件的概念，或者说什么是充分条件，什么是必要条件，什么是充要条件，什么是既不充分也不必要的这些概念对投资很重要。",[827,1205,1206,1207,1210],{},"之所以",[833,1208,1209],{},"我认为其很重要是因为我发现大多数人在逻辑上其实是不懂什么是充要条件的，我认为至少有85%的人在投资上不明白充要条件"," 。（2012-06-26）",[827,1212,1213],{},"网友：请教下段大哥，用郎咸平的话来说任何公司的成功必须把握人力、财力、技术同时还要把握行业的本质才是企业成功的充分条件，我想请教的是",[827,1215,1216],{},"（1）您认为企业成功的充分条件是什么？",[827,1218,1219],{},"（2）您是怎么理解手机行业本质的？",[827,1221,1222],{},"（3）您认为目前步步高、OPPO都把握住行业本质了吗？",[827,1224,1225,1227],{},[833,1226,835],{}," 郎咸平根本就不懂企业，你让我怎么接？（2013-02-16）",[827,1229,1230],{},"居然有人会认为企业成功会有“充分条件”的，你确认你知道“充分条件”是什么意思么？（2010-12-29）",[827,1232,1233,1236],{},[833,1234,1235],{},"段永平：投资里最难的就是没有具有“充分条件”的投资，只能从概率的角度考虑。越了解的公司，决策的把握越大，但从来没有100%的赢面。"," （2013-03-01）",[827,1238,1239],{},"网友S：股票投资，投资逻辑很重要，最重要是想明白充要条件，不想明白买了也会拿不住的。",[827,1241,1242,1243,1246],{},"举几个例：如果投资万科，一定要想明白房地产行业调控对万科的影响，想不明白拿着是睡不好的。投资茅台，不想明白三公消费对茅台的影响，认为茅台是靠三公消费支撑的，相信是不敢买的。投资苹果，看不懂苹果的ios",[848,1244,166],{"href":1245},"\u002Fpingtai","的未来，相信拿着也睡不好。",[827,1248,1249,1251],{},[833,1250,835],{}," 什么是充要条件？投资的充分条件是啥？（2013-03-26）",[827,1253,1254],{},"网友S：我上条的表达意思应该是：股票投资最重要的是充分条件（好的生意模式、好的企业文化、好的管理团队、好价钱）。碰到具备充分条件的公司出现好价钱，要想明白导致公司出现好价钱的关键点（列举了三个公司），想不明白买了也会拿不住，其实还是要懂这个公司。",[827,1256,1257,1259],{},[833,1258,835],{}," 我觉得搞懂什么是“充要条件”对投资特别重要。",[827,1261,1262],{},"记得第一次接触“充要条件”是在初中平面几何里，当时好像没懂。后来考大学前复习时才懂的。",[827,1264,1265],{},"我发现大多数“投资人”对“充要条件”到底是什么意思是没搞懂的，结果就是会有很多逻辑错误。",[827,1267,1268],{},"在逻辑学中：当命题「若A则B」为真时，A称为B的充分条件。当命题「若B则A」为真时，A称为B的必要条件。当命题「若A则B」與「若B则A」皆为真时，A是B的充分且必要条件，同时，B也是A的充分且必要条件。",[827,1270,1271],{},"充分且必要条件，亦可以简称为充要条件。",[827,1273,1274],{},"当命题「若A则B」为真，而「若B则A」为假时，我们称A是B的「充分但非必要条件」，B是A的「必要但非充分条件」；反之亦然。（2013-03-29）",[827,1276,1277],{},"网友：段大哥说的这一段很深奥，我没怎么看懂，假如企业的业绩持续上涨就会导致股价上涨，那么业绩不断上涨就是股价上涨的充分条件，但不是必要条件，是这么理解吗？",[827,1279,1280,1282],{},[833,1281,835],{}," 你好像还是没明白充分条件的意思哦。用平面几何里的东西比较容易看清楚。比如：等边三角形和等角三角形是互为充分条件，意思是等边三角形必为等角三角形，同时等角三角形必为等边三角形。企业业绩的持续上涨未必一定会导致股价上涨，所以他不是充分的。比如有一家公司现在一年每股赚一分钱，股价100块一股。",[827,1284,1285],{},"在未来20年里这个公司每年的盈利都有20%的成长，20年后该股价一定会涨吗？（2013-03-29）",[827,1287,1288,1290],{},[833,1289,835],{}," 你可能其实还不懂什么是充分条件。基本上可以讲投资里是无法找到充分条件的，你说的这个不是充分条件，甚至也不是必要的。投资里甚至必要条件都很难找到。",[827,1292,1293],{},[833,1294,1295],{},"举个例子：为什么说“好的生意模式、好的企业文化、好的管理团队、好价钱”也不是可以买的“充分条件”？因为这样的公司也可能犯致命的错误，只是具备这种条件的公司犯致命错误的概率比没有这种条件的公司低很多，康复能力强很多，所以投资这种公司成功的概率高很多而已。",[827,1297,1298],{},[833,1299,1300],{},"投资里最难的地方就是找不到可以投的“充分条件”，如果有的话，那电脑就可以比人脑厉害了。",[827,1302,1303],{},[833,1304,1305],{},"“投资界”总是有人试图找出一种不用懂企业就可以在股市上赚钱的办法，他们永远都不会找到的。如果能找到的话，这个办法应该早就找到了，那现在投资界赚钱最多的一定是数学家。",[827,1307,1308,1309,1312],{},"在美国，",[833,1310,1311],{},"我确实见过很好的大学里有些教授依然在试图找到通过数学用电脑就可以赚钱的办法，他们的逻辑推理的前提里有些假设是不对的，所以后面的结论不管多“高级”都不可能得出正确的结果。"," 有意思的是，这些教授大多数都是我曾经的同行---计量经济出身的（我曾经是人大计量经济学的“烟酒生”哈。）（2013-03-29）",[827,1314,1315],{},"网友D：“举个例子：为什么说“好的生意模式、好的企业文化、好的管理团队、好价钱”也不是可以买的“充分条件”？”，“投资里最难的地方就是找不到可以投的“充分条件”，等等，既然找不到，那么投资的充要条件到底是什么呢？脑子被转晕了。",[827,1317,1318,1321],{},[833,1319,1320],{},"段永平：投资里没有充要条件，就是没有数学公式可以用的意思"," ，所以不存在投资的充要条件是什么的问题。如果明白什么是充要条件，就会明白我什么意思。（2013-04-06）",[827,1323,1324,1326],{},[833,1325,835],{}," 把握性：巴菲特说，他的投资一般是在他认为有95%的把握时才出手（我觉得也许没那么高），但很多人实际上60%的把握就出手了（或许更低，所以会看到他们深一脚浅一脚的）（2012-08-27）",[827,1328,1329],{},"网友：“看懂”是指认同公司的MISSION，VISION，护城河...等前提下，觉得有7，8成把握就可以动手吗？",[827,1331,1332,1334],{},[833,1333,835],{}," 投资没有充分条件。你的七八成把握指的是什么很重要。如果你指的是你对10年后公司的理解，那把握度就是你的安全边际。（2015-01-22）",[827,1336,1337],{},"网友：这样的话，能不能产生这样的逻辑，懂的越浅，需要的安全边际越大，然后投资了安全边际越大的企业之后有可能产生更大的收益。",[827,1339,1340,1342],{},[833,1341,944],{}," ：懂的越浅，亏的机会越大，而且会赚的越少，因为涨一点就会卖掉的。（2013-03-06）",[822,1344,1346],{"id":1345},"第三节-先看商业模式再看企业文化","第三节 先看商业模式，再看企业文化",[827,1348,1349,1350,1352,1353,1355,1356,1358,1359,1362],{},"网友：最近读了一些关于投资的书籍，总结了一下",[833,1351,944],{},"和",[833,1354,978],{},"的投资理念。简单地讲：老巴更喜欢将便宜（",[848,1357,101],{"href":1149},"）作为投资标准，阿段更喜欢将好生意（好的",[833,1360,1361],{},"生意模式","）作为投资标准。非常喜欢这两个家伙，喜欢老巴生动有趣的、逻辑缜密的投资语言，喜欢阿段的对事的态度，“做对的事，把事做对”。",[827,1364,1365,1366,1368,1369,1371,1372,1375,1376,1378,1379,1381],{},"大道：大道第一次见",[833,1367,978],{},"时，曾经问过一个问题：当你看一家公司时，首先看什么？",[833,1370,978],{},"说：",[848,1373,70],{"href":1374},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","（",[833,1377,1361],{},"）！大道从听到这句话后大概花了10年的时间才真的理解了这句话的威力。首先看“",[848,1380,70],{"href":1374},"”很重要，刮到一个“谢”字时就不用再往下刮了吧。（2025-10-24）",[827,1383,1384,1386,1387,1352,1389,1391],{},[833,1385,978],{},"很久以前就说他有三个过滤器：good business, good people, good price. 大道讲的",[848,1388,70],{"href":1374},[848,1390,135],{"href":951},"就是从这里来的。（2025-10-24）",[827,1393,1394],{},"网友：你和巴菲特吃饭的初衷是什么？",[827,1396,1397,1399],{},[833,1398,835],{}," 投资时，每个人都要面临无穷选择。到底啥最重要？啥不该做？巴菲特说买公司首先看生意模式、不懂不碰。从见巴菲特以后，我犯错误的机会明显下降（不懂不做），决定重仓苹果也得益于巴菲特的教诲（生意模式强大）。巴菲特讲的这两个东西，我认为至少值20%的身价（对看懂的每个人的一生而言）。",[827,1401,1402],{},"如何“懂”是必须自己学的，比想象难。对于旁人来说，如何识别“不懂”，是一个学问。（2012-07-11）",[827,1404,1405],{},"网友：大道，从今天回头看，如果时光回到当年，你还会花那么多钱和巴菲特吃那顿饭吗？",[827,1407,1408,1411],{},[833,1409,1410],{},"段永平：和巴菲特聊一聊，给了我非常大的帮助，至少给我带来了几千倍午饭的价值。以前我对商业模式是没有那么重视的，只是众多考虑之一。认识老巴以后，我买的苹果，茅台，包括腾讯，都有老巴的影响在里面，尤其是一直拿着这点，和老巴绝对密不可分哈。"," 另外，从那以后，市场对我的影响逐年下降到几乎没有。如果能够从来的话，那我肯定会更早地去赢取那个机会。",[827,1413,1414],{},"（2020-10-15）",[827,1416,1417,1419],{},[833,1418,835],{}," 投资遵循老巴的逻辑：先看商业模式，理解企业怎么挣钱。95%的人投资都是focus在市场上的，这就是不懂投资。一定要focus在生意上。公司是要挣钱的。（2018-09-30）",[827,1421,1422],{},"网友：有个问题想请教您。我们作为投资者，花费了非常多的时间去看一个行业，但最后可能也只能成为半个内行。对企业可能也不是真“懂”，这个情况下是不是就应该反省并做一些放弃，还是有一些方法可以优化？例如我自己的经验，比如汽车行业，看了两年，花了很多时间，但因为行业复杂度和主观因素可能也只能看懂非常少部分逻辑，而且不敢非常确定。",[827,1424,1425,1427,1428,1431],{},[833,1426,835],{}," 我自己能看懂的公司也是非常少的，看不懂当然只能放弃了。个人认为，看懂一家公司不会比读一个本科更容易。不过，花很多时间去看那些看不懂的公司是不合算的。",[833,1429,1430],{},"我在老巴那里学到的非常重要的一点就是先看商业模式，除非你喜欢这家公司的商业模式，不然就不再往下看了"," ，这样能省很多时间。",[827,1433,1434],{},"你的汽车行业的例子我其实也不懂，虽然在特斯拉上赚过不少钱，但最后也因为看不懂而全部放弃了。（2019-03-13）",[827,1436,1437],{},"网友：首先看生意模式！最亮的指路明灯。谢谢！",[827,1439,1440,1443],{},[833,1441,1442],{},"段永平：看到这句话说明你有悟性哈。这句话可能值一辈子的午餐。"," （2012-04-06）",[827,1445,1446],{},"网友：总觉得自己在平庸公司里徘徊不前，如何才能跳出怪圈？",[827,1448,1449,1451,1452,1455],{},[833,1450,835],{}," ",[833,1453,1454],{},"关键是要搞懂生意，能看长远。“时间是平庸公司的敌人，是伟大公司的朋友","。”这句话也许能帮到你。(2020-12-02)",[827,1457,1458],{},[833,1459,1460],{},"找到好公司确实很难。所以，真要投资的话，要坚持的是要去找好公司，去看懂生意。至少要学会坚持不买烂生意。(2024-08-15)",[827,1462,1463],{},[833,1464,1465,1466,1468],{},"“买自己一眼就看懂的生意往往都不错”，说这句话的人很有悟性哦。",[833,1467,978],{},"也讲过，伟大的生意一般只要一个段落就可以说得很清楚。(2013-02-01)",[827,1470,1471],{},"网友：我还有一点不太明白，我一般找的是自己懂的便宜的公司，和您说的找自己懂的好公司有差别。在这点上我真有点弄不太明白？",[827,1473,1474,1476],{},[833,1475,835],{}," 好公司便宜的时候买。（2010-05-25）",[827,1478,1479],{},"网友D：看得懂什么不重要。好像现在的中国首富是看懂人喝的饮料的人，也许下一个是个能看懂猪饲料的人。段总想告诉的是不是包含着什么意思？",[827,1481,1482,1485],{},[833,1483,1484],{},"段永平：我的意思是你懂得所以才是你的好生意"," 。（2010-10-23）",[827,1487,1488,1490],{},[833,1489,835],{}," 要看懂一门生意确实非常艰难，需要长时间的专注。当然未必一定需要到40岁。我认识的一个投资“前辈”（年龄其实比我小7-8岁）30出头时投资就很成功了。这位“前辈”15岁从中国台湾来美国读中学，然后上大学，然后研究生，然后去了美林，3年后离开美林去了家房地产公司。在房地产公司期间发现一家上市的房地产公司生意很好但股价很便宜。",[827,1492,1493],{},"于是他就开始慢慢买，同时密切跟踪这家公司，在3年的时间里利用每个周末开车几乎跑遍了这家房地产公司的所有已建和在建工程，最后陆陆续续买了100多万股（在一块钱上下）。后来这家公司最多时一年赚20多块，109块时被私有化的。如果能够像他那么专注于一家公司的生意，任何人都有可能成功的。",[827,1495,1496,1497,1503],{},"有时候人们会以为做过生意的人会很容易看懂别的生意，个人认为这可能是个误解。",[833,1498,1499,1500,1502],{},"就我自己而言，要判断出一个好的",[848,1501,1361],{"href":1374},"是要花很多年的，而且经常是很多年以后依然是雾里看花（比如google）。但是，真正懂企业的人的最大优势实际上应该在对不好的生意模式的判断相对快一些，所以犯错的机会小一些"," 。（2012-05-21）",[827,1505,1506],{},"网友：我觉得看巴菲特和大道的东西，最重要的是让我树立了正确的投资逻辑，知道什么是对的，应该做的，什么是错的，不要去做。也说一下自己理解中的投资逻辑，有些理解会有错误，如果大道有时间希望帮我指出来。谢谢。",[827,1508,1509],{},[833,1510,1511,1512,1514],{},"首先买股票就是买公司，这是后面所有逻辑的前提，没有这一条，其他什么都不是。那么买什么股票或者说是公司呢？巴菲特告诉我们要买",[848,1513,33],{"href":1142},"内的，也就是你能看懂它在干什么，你觉得以后它可能会怎么样的企业。",[827,1516,1517],{},[833,1518,1519],{},"原则上凡是你能力圈内你觉得好的企业都是可以投资的，所以并不是说什么行业就一定不能投资，而能力圈的大小要看你的经历你的知识等等甚至要看机缘，也许你看了10年都没看懂但是某一天突然通了也是有可能的。",[827,1521,1522],{},[833,1523,1524,1525,1527],{},"那么能力圈内的公司要怎么去分析呢？巴菲特也说了好的",[848,1526,1361],{"href":1374},"，好的管理层，好的价格。可以看到好的价格是排在最后的，至于生意模式怎么理解，引用大道的话——赚钱模式；这3个条件各人有各人的理解，但是能同时满足这3条的很少见，所以大道也说过找到一个能理解的好的标的很难。",[827,1529,1530,1533],{},[833,1531,1532],{},"段永平：理解得很好啊，尤其是投资逻辑的理解很重要"," 。很多人会更多地注意我投什么，但那个真的不重要。（2013-03-06）",[827,1535,1536],{},"网友：我的问题是如何筛选好公司的问题，经过学习和思考我是这样总结的。",[827,1538,1539],{},"1．好的商业模式（终极表现是长期净利润高）这样的公司一般都有独特的护城河",[827,1541,1542,1543,1546],{},"2．好的企业文化（终极表现是有",[848,1544,186],{"href":1545},"\u002Flirunzhishangdezhuiqiu","）一般的企业都做不到这个这样就可以轻松快速的淘汰95%的企业。避免了会掉坑的地方不就离成功不远了么？往往剩下的就是苹果，腾讯这些公司。",[827,1548,1549],{},"请问大道这逻辑对么？",[827,1551,1552,1554],{},[833,1553,944],{}," ：很棒。（2019-08-06）",[827,1556,1557],{},"网友：想深入研究一家公司有什么好的办法吗？通常您是怎么实践的呢？",[827,1559,1560,1562],{},[833,1561,835],{}," 好像没有公式，我主要关注商业模式和企业文化。（2020-10-10）",[827,1564,1565,1566,1569],{},"网友：在如何弄懂一家公司上，怎么努力才算是",[848,1567,28],{"href":1568},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","？",[827,1571,1572,1574],{},[833,1573,835],{}," 忽略市场影响，看懂商业模式和企业文化，尽量想明白10年后企业会是啥样子。如果你决定要买某只股票，先想象一下如果股市马上停止10年交易，你是否能接受。（2020-10-14）",[827,1576,1577],{},"网友：您是否投资过护城河（含企业文化）不怎么好的企业？获利如何？",[827,1579,1580,1582],{},[833,1581,835],{}," 如果不喜欢一个公司的企业文化，我很难下手。（2011-01-22）",[827,1584,1585,1586,1589,1590,1592],{},"网友：",[848,1587,58],{"href":1588},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者除了看您的观点和",[833,1591,978],{},"的股东信之外，还有必要学习什么东西吗？",[827,1594,1595,1597,1598,1604,1605,1608,1609,1611,1612,1614],{},[833,1596,944],{},"： ",[833,1599,1600,1601,1603],{},"我主要讲投资是什么(什么是对的事情)，很少讲怎么投资(如何",[848,1602,28],{"href":1568},")","。巴菲特",[833,1606,1607],{},"的股东信应该两者都有了","。在如何",[848,1610,28],{"href":1568},"上，也许有很多书可以看，但最重要的是能够看懂企业，看懂",[848,1613,70],{"href":1374},"。（2019-04-10）",[827,1616,1617],{},"网友：《奥马哈之雾》这七层塔都建立在识别企业（生意）能力的基石上，没有这个基石（识别能力），七层塔都是空的．却偏偏没有如何识别一个好生意和一个好公司.",[827,1619,1620,1623],{},[833,1621,1622],{},"段永平：要学会什么是好生意，最好的办法就是去做个生意，别的办法都要比这个慢而且不扎实"," 。（2012-05-11）",[822,1625,1627],{"id":1626},"第四节-怎么了解一家公司","第四节 怎么了解一家公司",[827,1629,1630,1631,1634],{},"网友：看了你的《波士堂》。对话相当精彩，很少看到这么实话实说的企业家了。但你在其中反问你的师弟说：步步高难道不是中国的三星，索尼？请问除了企业的健康程度、所在产品行业的",[848,1632,141],{"href":1633},"\u002Fpinpai","知名度、市场占有率，还有其它的依据吗？",[827,1636,1637,1639,1640,1643],{},[833,1638,835],{}," 波士堂是很久以前的事了，不记得都说了啥。",[833,1641,1642],{},"一般而言，我评价企业的主要标准就是其健康度，其他都相对次要。"," 步步高现在的健康度我认为可能相当于甚至好过当年的3星或Sony。50年或100年以后，如果企业都还在的话，还可以再比。最重要的是50年或100年后我们企业还在。（2010-03-01）",[827,1645,1646],{},"网友：您买入的企业都是通过什么方式／方法进行考察和调研？（或者是感兴趣的企业）",[827,1648,1649,1651,1652,1655],{},[833,1650,835],{}," 没有一个具体的办法。一般来讲，我不太会对一个自己完全不了解的公司有兴趣，除非有个什么理由吸引我。了解每个公司的办法可能都不太一样，",[833,1653,1654],{},"我一般用排除法，发现不喜欢的东西就离开了，所以最后能留下的目标很少。没办法了解的公司就不碰了"," 。（2010-03-01）",[827,1657,1658],{},"网友：似乎做过实业的人更容易分辨一个企业是胖了还是廋了，像您和赵丹阳就都是做实业出身的，那没有这方面经验的人该如何去评估一个企业是胖了还是廋了呢？",[827,1660,1661,1663,1664,1667],{},[833,1662,835],{}," 我想你是对的，有过经验可能会有帮助。其实做过企业的人也未必就一定可以分辨。没做过的人也未必就一定不行。好像巴菲特开始投资的很多年里都是单纯投资的，后期才有一些介入。",[833,1665,1666],{},"我个人的经验基本是用“己所不欲”排除法来鉴别企业的，比如一家明知故犯地加三聚氰胺的公司我就会认为是一家不好的公司。又比如一家为500大而500大的公司我就会很小心。","（2010-03-19）",[827,1669,1670],{},[833,1671,1672],{},"麦肯锡7S简介",[827,1674,1675],{},"麦肯锡7S模型（Mckinsey 7S Model），简称7S模型，是麦肯锡顾问公司研究中心设计的企业组织七要素，指出了企业在发展过程中必须全面地考虑各方面的情况，包括：",[827,1677,1678],{},"硬件要素：战略（strategy）、结构（structure）、制度（system）",[827,1680,1681],{},"软件要素：风格（style）、员工（staff）、技能（skill）、共同的价值观（shared vision）。",[827,1683,1684],{},"网友：你觉得做企业最需要的是什么？",[827,1686,1687,1689],{},[833,1688,835],{}," 呵呵，缺啥要啥。麦肯锡7S就是这个意思。所以当一个公司里哪个部门强调自己部门是最重要的时候，往往这个部门就是公司最弱的部门。（2010-03-23）",[827,1691,1692],{},"网友：请问你了解一个企业，是关注它的哪些方面呢？",[827,1694,1695,1697],{},[833,1696,835],{}," 你看看麦肯锡的7S，也许能有很大帮助。（2010-03-25）",[827,1699,1700],{},"网友：看到你介绍的麦肯锡7s，你是用它来分析企业的好坏吗？",[827,1702,1703,1705],{},[833,1704,835],{}," 恩。我可以用7S去分析公司的问题出在哪里了。有的问题可以解决，那就是机会。有的问题不好解决，那就先不碰。（2010-03-26）",[827,1707,1708],{},"网友：您说过只投资熟悉的行业，那请教您比较熟悉和看好的行业是什么",[827,1710,1711,1713],{},[833,1712,835],{}," 没有看好的行业（但有不看好的行业），只有看好的企业。（2010-03-26）",[827,1715,1716],{},"网友：段总，你平常去参加股东大会吗？",[827,1718,1719,1721],{},[833,1720,835],{}," 很少，就去巴菲特的。（2010-03-27）",[827,1723,1724],{},"网友：我最想问段总的一个问题：您在做一个投资决定买入一只股票的时候，是由很多理由综合决定的，还是由一个二个关键理由决定的，这些理由是质化的，还是量化的？希望段总详细说一说。",[827,1726,1727,1729],{},[833,1728,835],{}," 买一只股票往往要很多理由。不买的理由往往就一两个就够了。（2010-03-30）",[827,1731,1732],{},"网友：请教大哥：怎样确定那个公司值得去关注，我是业余的，效率又低。（我知道是能力圈内的问题，大哥能不能有所点拨）。",[827,1734,1735,1737],{},[833,1736,944],{}," ：一般我用排除法，就是除非有理由让我关注，不然就不关注。（2010-04-05）",[827,1739,1740],{},"网友：一天拜访几家公司，这是什么样的工作狂人啊。",[827,1742,1743,1745],{},[833,1744,835],{}," 过多拜访公司容易短视。我的意思是，很多人拜访公司是为了了解公司短期运营的状况，这种心态对长期投资的帮助不一定大。（2010-04-12）",[827,1747,1748,1753,1754,1756],{},[833,1749,1750,1751,1603],{},"“永远不要问理发师你是否需要理发。”(",[833,1752,978],{}," 知道",[833,1755,978],{},"为什么认为拜访公司不一定有用了吧？(2012-07-27)",[827,1758,1759,1760,1762,1763,1765],{},"所谓",[848,1761,58],{"href":1588},"说通了就是要能理解企业。所有能帮助你理解企业的东西都是有用的，但不会有一个充分条件保证你会投资。我没啥更好的建议。我一般讲的都是要有自己不做的事情，至于怎么才能",[848,1764,28],{"href":1568},"是要靠自己去摸索的。(2019-06-26)",[827,1767,1768],{},"网友：您买股票实地调研吗？如有调研，您主要看哪方面。",[827,1770,1771,1773],{},[833,1772,835],{}," 如果对有兴趣但又觉得还有不踏实的地方，有可能要进一步了解。什么不明白就想办法了解什么。实地了解只是办法之一。了解公司没有公式，也没有万灵药方。（2010-04-20）",[827,1775,1776],{},"网友：您认为一个真正的投资者．应不应该看行业．",[827,1778,1779,1781],{},[833,1780,835],{}," 行业还是要看的，尤其是自己了解的行业容易找到目标。（2010-04-24）",[827,1783,1784],{},"网友：你在这么多上市公司中是怎么去选股选公司的？大该的思维方向是怎样的？",[827,1786,1787,1790],{},[833,1788,1789],{},"段永平：我采用的大概叫“守株待兔法"," ”，没有太系统的办法，也不每天去找，碰上一个是一个，反正赚钱也不需要有很多目标（巴菲特讲一年一个主意就够了）。有时候你感兴趣的目标会自己跳到眼前的。当然前提是我还是挺关心的，总是会经常看看各种东西，有时和朋友聊天也会有帮助，每天聊可能就有坏处了。（2010-04-25）",[827,1792,1793],{},"网友：请教您，我记得巴菲特有次回答一名记者的提问：“您的投资秘诀是什么？”回答是“看年报”．如果说我们看不懂一个企业，是不是应该不断的重复的去读年报呢？",[827,1795,1796,1798],{},[833,1797,835],{}," 看年报是了解企业的一个必经的路径。（2010-07-10）",[827,1800,1801],{},"网友：请教一个问题：你也说在评估一家企业的价值时，企业的健康状况很重要，企业的健康状况从哪些因素考量？",[827,1803,1804,1806],{},[833,1805,835],{}," 企业什么东西不健康你肯定是明白的吧？（2010-10-15）",[827,1808,1809],{},"网友：请问看懂一家公司是否一定要到上市公司所在地考察。有些人说：为了了解上市公司，就专程到上市公司的所在地租房住了半年。",[827,1811,1812,1814,1815,1818],{},[833,1813,835],{}," 公司内部人也未必就懂自己公司，在当地住上半年怎么就能一定懂？",[833,1816,1817],{},"搞懂一个公司实际上是没有公式的"," ，不然就可以在学校开课教了。（2011-01-13）",[827,1820,1821],{},"网友：能否介绍一下您平时研究公司、行业都看哪些杂志、报纸、刊物呢？",[827,1823,1824,1826],{},[833,1825,835],{}," 看和想要研究的公司有关的资料。（2011-02-18）",[827,1828,1829],{},"网友：我想起了彼得林奇说过的话：你喜欢他的产品，就要想想要不要买他的股票。他本人写的书里是极端喜欢买消费者喜欢其产品的公司的股票的。",[827,1831,1832,1835],{},[833,1833,1834],{},"段永平：我一般倒过来想，不喜欢的产品的公司的股票不碰，因为没办法了解（感觉）。"," （2011-03-24）",[827,1837,1838],{},"网友：如果我有机会接触上市公司的老板，我可能很少问，但我会用心去看去听他们说的和做的。",[827,1840,1841,1843],{},[833,1842,835],{}," 想了解上市公司老板根本不需要面对面接触，现在internet这么发达，想听其言观其行实在是方便的很啊。（2011-08-25）",[827,1845,1846],{},"网友：你平时是如何选股的？是不是持有的股票经常涨了之后，就会无意识的去寻找寻找有低估的？还是一切随缘？",[827,1848,1849,1851],{},[833,1850,835],{}," 我一般不太选股，除非某只股票因为某种原因跳到我眼里。一年有一次机会就很好了。当然，有主意以后执行起来还是很花时间的。（2011-12-16）",[827,1853,1854],{},"网友：您曾说过最关注企业的健康度，具体是指那些方面呢？",[827,1856,1857,1859],{},[833,1858,835],{}," 我们常说要更健康更长久，所以和不健康不长久相关的东西都是和健康度相关的东西。（2019-04-11）",[827,1861,1862],{},"网友：大道好。我问一个怎么找股票的问题。我的问题是大道你是怎么找到好股票的？",[827,1864,1865,1867],{},[833,1866,835],{}," 看雪球，好公司出来时你会知道的。2-3年找到一个就好。（2019-08-02）",[827,1869,1870],{},"网友：“好公司出来时你会知道的”怎么理解？",[827,1872,1873,1875],{},[833,1874,835],{}," 我的意思其实是，如果你一直关注的话，好公司出现时你就有可能会意识到了（需要真的看懂哈），价格其实没那么重要。（2019-08-03）",[827,1877,1878],{},"网友：我问一关于修炼本领的事。你说你平时关注雪球，好公司出现时能购够看出啦。那我们这些没啥水平的人，平时要怎么修炼，到好公司出现时才能看出来？谢谢。",[827,1880,1881,1883],{},[833,1882,835],{}," 我的意思其实是关注雪球才会机会多点，但不是说有办法一定能看出来。没水平的当然首先要提高水平。（2019-08-07）",[827,1885,1886],{},"网友：忽然开悟：受段大哥的启发以后多关注有独特生意的公司。不知对不对？",[827,1888,1889,1891,1892,1895],{},[833,1890,835],{}," 我投资只是为了好玩，所以",[833,1893,1894],{},"一般只关心有自己喜欢的产品的公司。从这类公司里找投资目标是件很享受的事情--既享受产品又享受投资带来的回报。"," （2019-09-20）",[827,1897,1898],{},"网友：大道的信息一般从哪里来啊？",[827,1900,1901,1903],{},[833,1902,835],{}," 雪球，不是玩笑哈。我现在基本不看别的媒体。（2019-09-20）",[827,1905,1906,1908,1909,1912],{},[833,1907,835],{}," 其实投资和我做企业是一样的，是不是买一家公司的股票，",[833,1910,1911],{},"我首先看它是否健康长久，这是看得见的。如果这个企业急功近利，那我就敬而远之，不管它短期内看起来有多红火。（"," 2007年《南方人物周刊》采访）",[827,1914,1915],{},"不明真相的群众：“我不太擅长研究公司的治理和策略。我主张研究公司最重要的是研究公司的产品，因为公司的其他一切都围绕着公司的产品和服务来进行和得到体现。”这个有点意思。",[827,1917,1918],{},"网友：当您发现感兴趣的目标后进行研究的时候是不是也很focus，花很多时间和精力在这个东西上，直到弄明白搞懂为止？",[827,1920,1921,1923],{},[833,1922,835],{}," 是的，除非目标被排除了。",[827,1925,1926],{},"网友：段大哥，因为看财报的知识不够，所以管理者的品行我会更在意，我曾看到一句话说“投资，如果你不识货，那就要识人。”我想问您，给人定性除了听其言观其行之外，还有什么是必须注意的呢？",[827,1928,1929,1931],{},[833,1930,944],{}," ：如果你连货都不识，还需要识人吗？老巴讲得很清楚了！（2013-11-15）",[827,1933,1934],{},"网友：为什么大公司会比小公司更容易了解些？一般大公司往往代表着复杂的业务，庞大的产品线，似乎不太容易了解，而小公司相对往往业务简单，产品也少，不应该是更容易了解吗？",[827,1936,1937,1939,1940,1943],{},[833,1938,835],{}," 一般而言大公司公开资料多，历史长。'",[833,1941,1942],{},"大公司'就一定业务复杂吗？乔布斯笑了哈！苹果非常简单，茅台也是。小公司业务简单吗？贾布斯也笑了"," 。（2017-03-21）",[827,1945,1946],{},"网友：老白干算不算一个不错的小公司呢？",[827,1948,1949,1951],{},[833,1950,944],{}," ：我曾经关注过一下老白干，但总觉得在当时的价钱下用茅台换老白干不太合适。这是个典型的‘大公司’容易了解而‘小公司’相对难的例子。（2017-03-21）",[827,1953,1954],{},"网友：以段总的经验，投资一家公司，大公司和小公司选择哪一种相对更容易？做个假设，如果段总现在处在你四十岁的那个阶段，会怎么做投资？是不是和50岁的阶段有些不一样呢？",[827,1956,1957,1959],{},[833,1958,835],{}," 如果时间使用上没区别的话，公司大小就没啥区别。大公司往往相对容易了解些。（2017-03-21）",[827,1961,1962],{},"网友：我看您大都投资的龙头型好企业，为什么很少去投资中小型类的企业呢？",[827,1964,1965,1967],{},[833,1966,835],{}," 我没太多时间。大公司容易了解很多。（2019-03-16）",[827,1969,1970],{},"网友：面对成千上万非上市的小公司，除了观其行听其言、深入了解其产品和服务，还有什么办法能高效率找到未来有潜力的小公司？",[827,1972,1973,1975],{},[833,1974,835],{}," 不知道。我只关心上市公司，因为容易了解很多。没有10年8年的可追溯历史，很难了解一个公司，了解一个小公司几乎是个不可完成的任务，除非开公司的人刚好是你以前就认识了很久的人。(2023-04-26)",[827,1977,1978],{},"网友：段大哥：您认为像我们这样的价值投资者该怎么聚焦？",[827,1980,1981,1983],{},[833,1982,835],{}," 找自己懂的好公司，别的不要太关心。希腊发生的事和大家有点八杆子打不着吧？（2010-05-25）",[827,1985,1986],{},"网友：想请教您，您是否检验看到的报表？有朋友说报表是小姑娘的辫子，随意打扮。您会不会像格雷厄姆那样仔细地看报表，找到背后的“真故事”？还是只是作为一个参考，不会太较真？",[827,1988,1989,1991,1992,1995],{},[833,1990,835],{}," 1、对自己觉得真正了解的公司，很少细看报表，但了解以前会看（至少是应该看）。",[833,1993,1994],{},"我一般会先了解企业文化，如果觉得不信任这家公司，就连报表都不会看的。"," （2010-06-04）",[827,1997,1998],{},"网友：如何知道自己看懂（或者没有看懂）某个企业／行业呢？比如茅台，记得你说过自己并不喝白酒，也没有听说过你曾开过酒厂。",[827,2000,2001,2003,2004,2007],{},[833,2002,835],{}," 没看懂的公司比较容易鉴别，就是股价一掉你就想卖，涨一点点你也想卖的那种。",[833,2005,2006],{},"看懂的那种大概就是怎么涨你都不想卖，大掉时你会全力再买进的那种。"," 我的意思是看懂并买进的那种公司最好的状态就是不想卖。比如茅台，比如苹果。（2019-04-06）",[827,2009,2010,2012,2013,2016],{},[833,2011,835],{}," 一般情况下我也是通过公开",[848,2014,161],{"href":2015},"\u002Fqudao","了解的。现在网络这么发达，几乎所有东西都能找到，但自己需要会辨别。比如苹果，你可以看下苹果所有的产品发布会，你再对照一下同期别的同行的你就会知道区别。企业主页也是一个了解的途径。新闻要小心，因为作者往往带有观点，如果你不明白，很可能会把你带沟里去。功夫花到家了你就会明白的。",[827,2018,2019,2020,2023],{},"从另一个角度再回答一下你的这个问题：",[833,2021,2022],{},"我看公司主要看两个东西，生意模式和企业文化。这两样东西中任意一样我不喜欢我就不会再继续看下去，所以没有懂不懂的问题，我不需要懂我没兴趣的公司。如果生意模式我喜欢（当然至少要懂了的意思），企业文化也很好，那就老老实实等好点的价钱。"," 持有一个自己懂且喜欢的公司，最大的特征就是可以完全漠视市场的变化，就是可以拿着睡好觉。",[827,2025,2026],{},"买个“票”然后天天睡不好觉，到处问别人怎么看，每天网上到处找各种相关消息的那种就是不懂。搞懂一家好公司其实是非常不容易的，多数情况下不是简单看下报表就可以的，但偶尔确实有那种简单看下报表就捡到宝的情况，比如老巴的某些公司，但那其实也是很多年碰上一个的概率，可遇不可求的。（2019-04-07）",[827,2028,2029],{},"网友：请问大道，您操作之前会像《穷查理宝典》书里讲的一样，列个“飞行员清单”吗？",[827,2031,2032,2033,1352,2035,2037],{},"大道：",[848,2034,70],{"href":1374},[848,2036,135],{"href":951},"！（2026-06-28）",[827,2039,2040],{},"网友：大道，您在了解公司的过程中除了关注公司的企业文化和商业模式之外，对于公司的产品您会下功夫去研究吗？",[827,2042,2043,2046],{},[833,2044,2045],{},"段永平：关注企业应该只能从关注产品开始的吧？没想到例外"," 。（2020-10-27）",[827,2048,2049],{},"网友：我了解一家公司主要靠体验它的产品，比如泡泡玛特就跑了8家线下门店。但我怕样本太小、以偏概全。了解一家公司的产品或商业模式，是否需要足够大的样本才能定性？",[827,2051,2052],{},"大道：任何对商业模式和企业文化的了解都会有助于理解一家公司，但没有公式可用。体验会有帮助你去了解公司的产品和用户，但不是充分条件。（2026-08-04）",[827,2054,2055,2056,2058,2059,2061,2062,2065],{},"网友：我有很多东西不懂。研究一家公司，通过看年报、公司官网，读企业传记和亲身体验公司产品等方式了解到的有关",[848,2057,135],{"href":951},"与",[848,2060,70],{"href":1374},"的东西总觉得太少了，也看不懂以后的",[848,2063,88],{"href":2064},"\u002Fxianjinliu","(看不出公司在未来的竞争中处于一种什么状态)。请教大道还有什么方法可以进一步加深研究吗？",[827,2067,2068,1451,2070],{},[833,2069,835],{},[833,2071,2072],{},"其实是有的，大概就是先开一家公司，干个几年后就明白了。千万不要以为这是玩笑。黄峥当年问过我类似的问题，就是不管怎么看公司总觉得差点啥，当时我们说的就是经营一家公司可能会有帮助。后来他就回国开了公司了。(2020-12-03)",[822,2074,2076],{"id":2075},"第五节-能力圈是什么边界在哪","第五节 能力圈是什么，边界在哪",[827,2078,2079],{},"网友：茅台不断创新高，感谢段总！好久没聊新标的了，期待",[827,2081,2082,2084],{},[833,2083,835],{}," 我能力圈小，能看懂的东西太少了，这些年确实没发现什么能让我用苹果或茅台去换的公司。（2017-03-13）",[827,2086,2087],{},"网友：投资人需要熟悉自己的领域，也需要见多识广，才能有所鉴别？你的投资很有逆向投资的味道，当然是在价值的基础上，很注重买价，而不是中国大陆市场这种更多的是成长的收益？我这样理解，对么？",[827,2089,2090],{},"譬如大陆有些大国企，譬如东方航空，过去是资不抵债的，无论你如何买卖，似乎在财务会计上看都不合算，可你又知道国家一定会让它渡过难关，这样能算是投资么，虽然也赚了不少，可总觉得有点发虚？望指教！",[827,2092,2093,2096],{},[833,2094,2095],{},"段永平：巴菲特讲的能力圈子指的就是每个人都有自己有限的了解范围。每个人总是有些东西懂有些东西不懂。所以投自己懂的东西就容易知道价值，就知道什么叫便宜，就有机会赚钱，反之亦然。如果你觉得心虚的东西就是投机，投机当然也有赚钱的时候，但风险大，睡不好觉。"," （2010-03-25）",[827,2098,2099],{},"网友：我来说几个：但斌、林园、赵丹阳、李剑、李驰，他们都说自己是坚守价值投资，真的是不是？不知道。",[827,2101,2102,2104],{},[833,2103,835],{}," 一般而言，说自己是坚守价值投资的人多少都会很看重价值的。价值投资是理解而不是公式，所以每个人的结果可能有很大区别，因为每个人的能力圈子不同。（2010-04-15）",[827,2106,2107],{},"网友：您这句话对我来说价值连城。",[827,2109,2110,2112],{},[833,2111,835],{}," “知道自己的“能力圈”有多大比“能力圈”本身有多大要重要的多。”这句话实际上是巴菲特说的。（2011-01-03）",[827,2114,2115,2117,2118,2121],{},[833,2116,835],{}," 能力圈不是拿金箍棒在地上画个圈，说待在里面不要出去，外面有妖怪。",[833,2119,2120],{},"能力圈是：诚实对自己，知之为知之，不知为不知。有这样的态度，然后如果能看懂一个东西，那它就是在我能力圈内，否则就不是。"," （2018-09-30）",[827,2123,2124],{},"网友：您和巴菲特的区别是什么呢？",[827,2126,2127,2129],{},[833,2128,835],{}," 我觉得我和巴菲特不同的地方主要是能力圈子不一样，本质的东西没什么区别。我和巴菲特懂得东西不一样。每一个价值投资者懂的东西可能都不一样。每个人都是在投他们自己懂的企业。这就是巴菲特讲的每个人都有自己的能力圈子。（2010-03-21）",[827,2131,2132,2134],{},[833,2133,835],{}," 每个人的能力都是有限的。巴菲特不投IT业也是因为他能力有限，无法了解。老巴讲的能力圈子就是这个意思：每个人在自己的能力圈子里投资，将来一定能有回报。（2010-04-12）",[827,2136,2137],{},"巴菲特：很多事情做起来都会有利可图，但是，你必须坚持只做那些自己能力范围内的事情，我们没有任何办法击倒泰森。",[827,2139,2140],{},"网友：段先生的价值投资是在自己的能力圈里，和巴佬的价值投资的表象区别很大，巴佬自己也不是只靠价值投资，他做过很多的套利，不然也不能积累这么快财富，当然和他所处的时间段也有关。",[827,2142,2143,2145],{},[833,2144,835],{}," 巴菲特早年做过一些套利，现在很少做了。但是，有好机会我相信他还会做的。我对投资的理解真的和巴菲特的理解本质上是一样的，但和他的能力圈子（或者叫农民的局限性）不同，所以表象上不一样。当然，有些是我的水平还没到哪儿造成的。（2010-04-22）",[827,2147,2148],{},"网友：能举个例子吗？",[827,2150,2151,2153],{},[833,2152,835],{}," 举个例子也许你就明白了。巴菲特有很多保险和金融的投资，我基本没有，因为我还不懂，总觉得不踏实。我投了一些和internet相关的公司，巴菲特没投过，因为他不懂。他认为可口可乐是人们必喝的，我认为游戏是人们必玩的。（2010-04-30）",[827,2155,2156],{},"网友：为什么预测未来经济或股市大势是不靠谱的事情，而预测某几个企业的未来却是靠谱的事情？这个信仰的基础是什么？",[827,2158,2159,2161],{},[833,2160,944],{}," ：这不是信仰问题，是能力圈问题。（2010-09-14）",[827,2163,2164],{},"网友：今天看到陈一舟的这句话，觉得挺深刻的。",[827,2166,2167],{},"少即多，慢则快。",[827,2169,2170],{},"陈一舟表示，当年巴菲特给他上课时曾告诫他，每个人做事前都要画一个圈，圈内是自己了解的，圈外是不懂和似是而非的。做事情，一定要做圈内的，而且这个圈内的事情越少越好，最好是只有一个：“少即多”。",[827,2172,2173,2175],{},[833,2174,835],{}," 呵呵，好耳熟。2010-10-30",[827,2177,2178],{},"网友：有时真很怀疑“投资小学水平足以”这句话。",[827,2180,2181,2183],{},[833,2182,835],{}," “投资小学水平足以”这句话没啥问题，是能力圈大小的问题。（2011-07-03）",[827,2185,2186],{},"网友：谈一下自己肤浅的认识：总说价值投资是知易行难，其实是知难行易。知难是知道价值投资的边界，行易是投资者具有了将自己限定在能力圈里的能力。当然实际上，对具体投资标的的深入了解、掌握的程度决定了投资决心的大小。有时看似轻松的投资过程（比如巴爷对美银，段总对苹果、巨人），其实都是投资者多年努力付出的观察研究，知识储备，从业经历所得出的必然结果。",[827,2188,2189,2191],{},[833,2190,835],{}," 知难行易的说法也很有道理。（2011-09-06）",[827,2193,2194],{},"网友：投资之道也是从这些平凡之处悟出来的，不怕挨砖的说更不关巴老的事。",[827,2196,2197,2199,2200,2203],{},[833,2198,835],{}," 老巴不可能教会我们投资，因为会否投资是关乎每个人自己的能力圈的事情。不过，",[833,2201,2202],{},"老巴教导我们要呆在自己的能力圈内，这样就会少犯错，时间长了以后投资就会有好的表现"," 。（2011-12-01）",[827,2205,2206],{},"网友：您对弘毅这家投资公司了解吗？",[827,2208,2209,2211],{},[833,2210,835],{}," 我不太了解其他投资人都在干嘛。我觉得真正的投资者之间的交流是很少的，大家都在自己的能力圈内干活，不太需要交流。（2011-12-18）",[827,2213,2214],{},"网友：为什么说巴菲特不是每个人都学得来的",[827,2216,2217],{},"当去年8月25号巴菲特宣布投资美国银行的时候，当巴菲特宣布购买他原来坚决不会投资的科技股IBM和英特尔的时候，不少人纷纷效仿，大举买入，以为和股神同行自己也就是股神了。为什么说巴菲特不是每个人都学得来的呢？...",[827,2219,2220,2223],{},[833,2221,2222],{},"段永平：学老巴最重要是学他的原则，毕竟每个人的能力圈不同。"," 就像我敢重仓苹果，老巴大概不会一样。我有个朋友在BYD上亏了很多钱，我问他为什么买BYD，他说老巴都买了，这种学法是会出事的。我没买过BYD，虽然一直有兴趣看，但一直没看出买的兴趣来，所以老巴买不买对我完全没影响。",[827,2225,2226],{},"总之，崇拜任何人都是不对的，最重要的是芒格讲的那个“理性”。（2012-01-09）",[827,2228,2229,2231],{},[833,2230,835],{}," 呵呵，一般而言，如果有可比性的前提下，买得比老巴便宜多数都是不错的deal。（2012-01-09）",[827,2233,2234],{},"网友：段大哥能给我们讲讲你对一个跳入你视野的企业主要通过哪几个方式和途径来了解呢？",[827,2236,2237,2239],{},[833,2238,835],{}," 每个人都是从自己的能力圈内下手，别人其实帮不了你。（2012-01-12）",[827,2241,2242],{},"网友：怎样才能避免自以为看懂了，其实看错了的情况呢？",[827,2244,2245,2247],{},[833,2246,835],{}," 错误是不可避免的，但呆在能力圈内以及专注和用功可以大幅度减少犯错的机会。（2012-04-06）",[827,2249,2250],{},"网友：段总，我相信你是有一定的能力圈的，老巴的能力圈更是非常广。我看到大部分做价值投资而受了重伤的博友正正是跌进能力圈的圈套当中，常常出现以为自己正在以四毛买一元，但其实是以一元买四毛的情况。很多人因此认为价值投资失效。他们对于企业真实价值的错误判断，越是相信自己拥有了该行业的能力圈，越是受伤。能力圈的问题往往是一把双刃剑。一点点不同的观点。",[827,2252,2253,2255],{},[833,2254,835],{}," 也许你没看我写的是什么。我这里有一点很重要的就是认为大多数人其实不碰股票就是最好的投资，除非你认为自己确实有自己了解的好公司处在便宜的价钱。",[827,2257,2258,2259,2262],{},"谢谢你相信我有一定的能力圈哈。老巴的能力圈只是和我不一样而已，无所谓大小，最重要的是不要在自己的能力圈以外使劲。",[833,2260,2261],{},"能力圈不是双刃剑，是单刃的，只是内外有别而已。"," （2012-04-08）",[827,2264,2265],{},"网友：作为一个普通投资者，要真搞懂一个公司，其实难度真的很大，需要知识，经验，能力，心态，总之需要的东西很多，尤其是要确定好自己的能力圈，我现在觉得能搞懂一个比较简单行业的好公司就算实现自己的价值了。一点也不敢乱来！想来想去，能力圈这个东西真不简单！",[827,2267,2268,2270],{},[833,2269,835],{}," 如果简单的话，那各种巴菲特早就满地爬了。（2012-04-26）",[827,2272,2273],{},"网友：学习老巴好榜样：学从知道不能学开始。所谓的学老巴在这里指学习老巴现在的操作方式，即以合理的价格买入优秀公司的方法……",[827,2275,2276,2278],{},[833,2277,835],{}," 我不知道大家对“学习巴菲特”的定义是什么？",[827,2280,2281,2282,2289],{},"个人认为，所谓学老巴实际上就是一件事：",[833,2283,2284,2285,2288],{},"买股票就是买公司（",[848,2286,23],{"href":2287},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","）"," 。",[827,2291,2292],{},"我发现，我认识的绝大多数人，不管他们这么说，骨子里都是拒绝“买股票就是买公司”的，理由是：那是巴菲特干的事，我们学不会。",[827,2294,2295,2296,2299,2300,2306],{},"至于",[833,2297,2298],{},"怎么才能找到好公司"," ，这本身和巴菲特关系就不大，因为每个人的能力圈不一样，受过的训练也不同（好的职业运动员没10年8年的训练是不可能的，好的投资人也一样！）每个人对自己能力圈的界限的认识也不同。",[833,2301,2302,2303,2305],{},"如何“",[848,2304,28],{"href":1568},"”是需要很多年的训练（理解）的"," 。（2012-05-03）",[827,2308,2309],{},"网友：不知道您是否关注过广药集团和加多宝集团对于王老吉的商标使用权的报道，我想问段老师在今后的5年或10年里那家企业胜出的机会多点？",[827,2311,2312,2314],{},[833,2313,944],{}," ：基本上我不太关注能力圈外的企业。（2012-05-24）",[827,2316,2317],{},"网友：学习价值投资（其实一直在投机）这几年，终于悟出自己的能力圈其实就是（没有能力圈），郁闷。",[827,2319,2320,2322],{},[833,2321,835],{}," 其实能悟到这点也很了不起！（2012-07-27）",[827,2324,2325],{},"网友：一年中最大的收获就是对“守在能力圈比知道自己的能力圈有多大重要”这句话加深了理解！",[827,2327,2328,2330,2331,2334],{},[833,2329,835],{}," 应该是知道自己能力圈有多大比能力圈有多大要重要得多。当然知道也未必一定守得住，但不知道自己能力圈有多大的伤害远比能力圈很小要大得多。其实",[833,2332,2333],{},"股市上那些长期亏钱的大多属于不知道自己能力圈有多大的人们"," ，而认为自己不懂股票而不买股票的人们是不会直接被伤害的。（2012-07-28）",[827,2336,2337,2339],{},[833,2338,835],{}," 大概智商高的人未必知道自己的能力圈边界在哪里，但智商高的人可能往往容易越出自己的能力圈。（2012-07-28）",[827,2341,2342],{},"网友：我是巴菲特的粉丝，我的领悟是巴老的胜算很高的；巴菲特说的和做的是不一样的，他只说他想说的和想让你听到的。",[827,2344,2345,2347],{},[833,2346,835],{}," 不懂不做，老巴一直如此。但懂有时候要有个过程，老巴也不例外，也会碰到以为懂了但后来发现其实不完全懂得东西。另外，老巴公司还有其他人管投资，老巴是放权给他们做的，但他们的理解有时候和老巴会不完全一样，所以大家看到的老巴的持股未必一定就是老巴的风格。其实BYD就不是老巴的风格，GM也不是。",[827,2349,2350],{},"在石油公司上老巴也认为自己犯了一个几十亿美金的错误（把中石油上赚的钱亏进去很多）。（2012-10-09）",[827,2352,2353,2355],{},[833,2354,835],{}," 知道自己能力圈有多大或者说知道自己能力圈的边界在哪里要远远重要过能力圈有多大，这也是人们能看到很多很“聪明”的人投资表现长期不好的原因。当然，这些“聪明”人会把别人的成功或自己的不成功归结于运气或“accidents”，而且他们总是能够很“聪明”地找到办法让自己认为确实如此。",[827,2357,2358],{},"功夫熊猫1里说“there are no accidents”其实是蛮有道理的。（2013-02-01）",[827,2360,2361,2362,1143,2365,1143,2368,2370,2371,2373,2374,2376,2377,2379],{},"网友：虽然资金都在",[833,2363,2364],{},"茅台",[833,2366,2367],{},"腾讯",[833,2369,1173],{},"上，但这些归根结底还是学长你的",[848,2372,33],{"href":1142},"(比如我始终想不透彻，未来的",[833,2375,1173],{},"为什么一定可以和当年的索尼不一样)。十几年过去，增加了一些商业的常识，稀里糊涂赚了些钱，但是没有构建出自己可持续的",[848,2378,33],{"href":1142},"，有时也挺焦虑的。",[827,2381,2382,2384],{},[833,2383,835],{}," 如果你确认你一直在想但确实又想不太明白的话，最好的办法也许就是买标普500，然后该干嘛干嘛去？对很多人而言，花太多时间在“投资”上不值得，这和你的学历没关系。",[827,2386,2387],{},"不明真相的群众：就是一定要买，也得看老巴是多少钱买的嘛。48块钱买中石油的，是连这点功夫都不愿意花的。",[827,2389,2390],{},"网友：请教大道，如果以五年期来看，太阳能对煤炭股有多大的影响？问题有点不靠谱，比较难回答，",[827,2392,2393,2395],{},[833,2394,835],{}," 如果这是你能力圈里的事你不需要问我，如果不是，问谁都没用。（2 011-12-27）",[827,2397,2398],{},"巴菲特：不同的人理解不同的行业。最重要的事情是知道你自己理解哪些行业，以及什么时候你的投资决策正好在你自己的能力圈内。",[827,2400,2401,2403],{},[833,2402,835],{}," 知道自己能力圈有多大比能力圈有多大要重要的多。或者说，即使能力圈很大的人，在能力圈外也是会很惨的。（2012-07-28）",[827,2405,2406],{},"巴菲特：对你的能力圈来说，最重要的不是能力圈的范围大小，而是你如何能够确定能力圈的边界所在。如果你知道了能力圈的边界所在，你将比那些能力圈虽然比你大5倍却不知道边界所在的人要富有得多。",[827,2408,2409,2411],{},[833,2410,835],{}," 还是能力圈。（2012-07-28）",[827,2413,2414],{},"巴菲特：投资并非一个智商为160的人就一定能击败智商为130的人的游戏。",[827,2416,2417,2418,1603],{},"“我们之所以取得目前的成就，是因为我们关心的是寻找那些我们可以跨越的一英尺栏，而不是去拥有什么能飞越七英尺的能力。”(",[833,2419,978],{},[827,2421,2422,2424,2425,2427],{},[833,2423,835],{}," 这说的也是",[848,2426,33],{"href":1142},"的问题。经常看到人们在讨论本身一头雾水的投资概念，让我常常想起这话。(2012-07-28)",[827,2429,2430,2432],{},[833,2431,944],{}," ：还是说要呆在能力圈内。呆在能力圈内说起来容易，但大多数人做不到。",[827,2434,2435],{},"巴菲特：对于大多数投资者而言，重要的不是他到底知道什么，而是他们是否真正明白自己到底不知道什么。",[827,2437,2438,2440],{},[833,2439,835],{}," 还是能力圈。we don't know what we don't know.",[827,2442,2443],{},"巴菲特：如开始就成功，就不要另觅他途。",[827,2445,2446,2448],{},[833,2447,944],{}," ：还是能力圈。",[827,2450,2451],{},"巴菲特：如果我们不能在自己有信心的范围内找到需要的，我们不会扩大范围。我们只会等待。",[827,2453,2454,2456,2457,2460],{},[833,2455,835],{}," 还是能力圈。要",[848,2458,197],{"href":2459},"\u002Fnaixin","等待自己能力圈内出现投资目标（包括在能力圈内积极寻找。）",[827,2462,2463],{},"巴菲特：投资必须是理性的。如果你不能理解它，就不要做。",[827,2465,2466,2289],{},[833,2467,2468],{},"段永平：不懂不做，其实还是能力圈",[827,2470,2471,2472,2474],{},"网友：大道您好，我最近一直在看您说的东西，最后得出的结论是以我现在的",[848,2473,33],{"href":1142},"最好不要投资个股，您觉得我有没有一点点懂了？",[827,2476,2477],{},"大道：你比80%的人更懂了。（2025-11-17）",[827,2479,2480],{},"网友：我终于明白了自己的circle of competence在哪里了-- You don’t really have a competency if you don’t know the edge of it，终于有了自己的能力圈，哈哈，进步了一点点。",[827,2482,2483,2486],{},[833,2484,2485],{},"段永平：知道自己的能力圈在哪远远比能力圈有多大重要，投资的人绝大多数都是倒在能力圈外的，虽然大多数最后都不明白为什么中的招。不过，因为看了这句话就认为自己有能力圈了也是蛮有趣的。"," （2012-07-16）",[827,2488,2489,2492],{},[833,2490,2491],{},"段永平：股市上那些长期亏钱的大多属于不知道自己能力圈有多大的人"," 。（2012-07-28）",[827,2494,2495,2498],{},[833,2496,2497],{},"段永平：我懂的生意非常少，和很多人的差别在于我承认我懂的少，所以就变简单了"," 。（2018-08-10）",[827,2500,2501],{},"网友：段总的投资风格由过去买网易及UHAL的雪中送炭式投资变成现在买苹果和谷歌的锦上添花式投资，您的投资风格变了吗？",[827,2503,2504,2506],{},[833,2505,835],{}," 投资风格是什么意思？难道是从只投看得懂的变成只投看不懂的了？哈，有人问过我都喜欢投什么公司，我总是说“看得懂”的。然后一般人家会问一般是哪类公司，我一般会回答不知道。网易和uhal其实是很好的例子，因为这两个公司所处的行业风马牛不相及。也许就是个运气。有时候能想明白一点啥也是运气，老巴好像也是这么说的，所以运气好的人应该多回馈社会。",[827,2508,2509],{},"（2011-09-27）",[827,2511,2512],{},"网友：老巴不喜欢高科技行业有没有可能是因为变化太快？",[827,2514,2515,2517],{},[833,2516,835],{}," 老巴不喜欢高科技？老巴从来没说不喜欢，只说看不懂而已，但他一旦看懂也是一样会出手的，比如IBM。老巴还说过，如果你能看懂变化，你将能赚大钱。投资最重要的不是老巴能看懂什么，最重要的是你自己能看懂什么。（2013-05-26）",[827,2519,2520],{},"网友E：这个解释不太理解，老段能举个例子说明一下吗？",[827,2522,2523,2525],{},[833,2524,835],{}," 如果不理解的话，给个例子你也不会明白的。比如苹果...（2014-08-21）",[827,2527,2528],{},"网友：最近正在向您的投资三原则靠拢。不借钱，不做空，不做不懂的东西。前两条已经做到了。在执行第三条时，发现自己之前投资的好多公司自己还没完全搞懂。真正最了解的就身边的格力与苏宁了。我卖了三年前买的中国平安（因为现在发现对它好多东西都不懂）加上自己省下的一些闲钱，放在银行有点难受。我打算跟您买点华侨城，再跟老巴买点比亚迪。",[827,2530,2531],{},"我想了很久，觉得这也符合您“不懂不做”的投资原则。因为我对您和巴菲特的投资方法很懂。这样比较容易让自己坚信。",[827,2533,2534],{},"请问段总我的想法对吗？还有想问您，您在09年为什么跟老巴买富国银行（你说过不懂银行的）而不是容易了解的强生，宝洁，沃尔玛啊？",[827,2536,2537,2539,2540],{},[833,2538,944],{}," ：首先你一定要明白一个基本的逻辑关系，",[833,2541,2542],{},"那就是投资一定要投自己了解或明白的公司，但不是说自己了解或明白的公司就一定要投。你要连这个逻辑都搞不清楚，“投资”会让你吃大苦头的。",[827,2544,2545],{},"老巴很懂银行，而且是WFC的董事，他说很便宜的时候那就是很便宜了。另外，我虽然不如老巴懂银行，但也不是一点也不懂，我看过他说的道理，非常认同。他们有的有些公司我就不太认同，所以不会跟。（2011-05-29）",[827,2547,2548,2549,2551],{},"网友：按照这个懂的标准，普通人或许很久(3年、5年)也找不到一个",[833,2550,1361],{},"好、又几乎全懂、价格又合适的公司了。",[827,2553,2554,2556,2557,1352,2559,2561],{},[833,2555,835],{}," 这也是为什么大道一直觉得自己是普通人的原因。大道过去十几年实际上就真的看懂了两家公司，",[833,2558,1173],{},[833,2560,2364],{},"。平均六年看懂一家。(2023-11-16)",[822,2563,2565],{"id":2564},"第六节-能力圈能不能扩大","第六节 能力圈能不能扩大",[827,2567,2568],{},"网友：“扩大自己的能力圈未必是明智的”是否是说我们更应该专注自己，我感觉很多的东西要想真正融到自己骨子里还有很长的一段路要走。学习一个人，就应该持续不断地跟踪一个人，关注他的一举一动一言一语，不管它是精华还是糟粕。一个人就是一个整体，根本就不可能分出什么精华糟粕。",[827,2570,2571,2573,2574,2577],{},[833,2572,835],{}," 你这种学法大概真的会学到糟粕，因为你不可能拥有任何一个人的所有信息，而且能力圈和经历往往大不一样所以你还是在按你自己想像的东西学。",[833,2575,2576],{},"我觉得学别人最重要的不是人家干什么和怎么干，而是原则的问题，尤其是什么东西不能干的问题"," 。（2011-10-13）",[827,2579,2580],{},"网友A：请教一下“多”和“少”的关系：less is more。老巴也说，尽可能出手次数少的投资。我的理解是，少是一个高度生化的结果。为了达到“少”的这个结果。人们可能要尽可能多的去了解一些行业公司和事物。尽管每个人的能力圈是有限的，但也需要学习尽可能多的知识，去扩大自己的能力圈。我非常赞同段总说的，要呆在自己的能力圈之内。",[827,2582,2583],{},"但是，对于年轻人来说，积极的扩大自己的能力圈，也是很重要的。否则，很容易被这些所困惑，从而可能会导致止步不前。不知道对否？",[827,2585,2586,2588],{},[833,2587,835],{}," 你想问什么？你为什么会认为扩大自己的能力圈和呆在自己的能力圈内是矛盾的呢（很多人问这个问题，我不是很明白大家问这个问题的逻辑是什么）？老巴讲的非常好：知道自己能力圈的大小（边界）比能力圈有多大要重要得多。（2015-04-24）",[827,2590,2591],{},"网友：读书多能帮助你知道自己的能力圈有多大，不能帮助你扩大能力圈，投资是在能力圈内的事情，当然把事情做对需要学习。",[827,2593,2594,2596],{},[833,2595,835],{}," 凡事分两个方面：做对的事情和把事情做对。读书也一样。就投资而言，书上说的基本上都是投资技巧，就是把事情做对的方式，这些东西很难靠读书学会，不过有空读点也许是会有启发的。（2016-09-29）",[827,2598,2599,2601],{},[833,2600,835],{}," 不要盲目地扩充自己的能力圈。人能做的事有限，人说啥、能说啥不重要，重要的是你做啥、能做啥。（2018-09-30）",[827,2603,2604],{},"网友：所有拓展投资者视野，增加投资者知识的书都可算作投资书籍，欢迎大家讨论所有能建立正确投资理念，拓展能力圈的书。",[827,2606,2607,2609,2610,2613],{},[833,2608,835],{}," 我只是表示我本人没兴趣而已。我只是个业余投资者，自己那3板斧够用就行了，不想跟自己过不去。",[833,2611,2612],{},"老巴也说过，知道自己能力圈多大比能力圈有多大要重要的多。扩大自己的能力圈未必是明智的（这话一般可能看不懂哈）"," 。不过老巴喜欢看书，我喜欢看点别的东西而已。（2011-10-13）",[827,2615,2616],{},"网友L：哈哈，大道太谦虚，看看跟贴里这些悲催的人们吧。当然我们都太初段。",[827,2618,2619,2621,2622],{},[833,2620,835],{}," 不要以赚钱喜，不要为亏钱悲哈，关键在过程。要时刻记住的就那么几条：不要用margin，不要sell short，不要做自己不懂的东西。尤其是最后这条比较难，因为比较难界定自己的能力圈。",[833,2623,2624],{},"我经常看到有人跑到自己的能力圈以外去做事情，回头安慰自己的话就是“扩大能力圈”是要付学费的。",[827,2626,2627,2630],{},[833,2628,2629],{},"其实，对大多数有能力投资的人而言，自己的能力圈里能做的事情实际上往往是足够多的，实在是没必要冒太大的风险跑到一个未知的地方去。"," 当然，如果是拿别人的钱或许可以试试？（玩笑哈）（2011-12-31）",[827,2632,2633],{},"网友L：不过难道人不需要拓展自己的能力圈吗？还是说不要刻意地去拓展，那又要在什么情况下才能拓展呢？人也在成长，20岁和40岁的认识应该会有很大的变化，能力圈总是会拓展的吧？",[827,2635,2636,2638],{},[833,2637,835],{}," 我大概回答不了这个问题，因为我老觉得没有一定的能力圈就不应该开始投资。芒格讲没见过40岁以下的价值投资者或许就是这个意思？（2011-12-31）",[827,2640,2641],{},"网友L：谢谢大道，部分解答了我对这个问题的疑问。对于能力圈再拓展的问题，大概是通过某种方式，这个还没想明白，比如在某个行业中摸爬滚打，或通过阅读积累了足够多的知识，或两者结合，达到真正了解它的程度，才算是能力圈有所拓展？",[827,2643,2644,2646],{},[833,2645,835],{}," 说一个肯定会有例外的看法：我觉得一个人的能力圈在40岁以前大概就定了，之后恐怕很难扩展。好像打golf也有点类似的东西。我有个球友，球一直打得不错（很稳定），个子还比我高大概7-8cm，就是开球距离比较短（大概比我短50码），所以和我打球时总是要输5-6杆给我。5年多以前在我的一再鼓励下，他下决心一定要把距离提上去。",[827,2648,2649],{},"当时我跟他的教练聊过，我说一定要帮他把距离提高个20-30码啊。教练说，这个很难。我说，10码也好啊。教练说，这个也很难。这么多年过去了，我一直不是很相信教练的话。我的球友也确实很勤学苦练。5年多过去了，现在一开球，我的距离一般还是要比他远50码。有时候觉得这个东西很神奇，有时候又觉得很离奇，但就是搞不懂为什么。（2 011-12-31）",[827,2651,2652],{},"网友：有点困惑了。芒格说没见过40岁以下的价值投资。而你说40岁能力圈已经很确定了。感觉您说的能力圈不包含对行业和企业的了解，更侧重于对行业和企业的理解，对商业模式的理解。更强调思维模式。虽然没怎么打过golf，也不理解你朋友5年了开球没有提高，还是还和你差那么多？5年的提高也应该算是能力圈的提高啊？",[827,2654,2655,2658],{},[833,2656,2657],{},"段永平：对行业和企业的了解（和理解有一点点不一样）总是可以提高的，但人的思维方式和世界观非常难改变。"," 比如说有人认为股市就是赌场，那他们就会一直这么认为下去，怎么说都是很难改的；又比如习惯了看图看线的人们，怎么说都会时不时看一下的。以我这10年投资的经历来看，我还真没有见过谁真的变了。（2011-12-31）",[827,2660,2661],{},"网友X：想问一下如何清醒客观的认识到自己的能力圈边界呢？没有能力圈确实是不该投资，不做不懂的事。可是有时候误认为自己懂了，难道都要亏钱后才确认自己其实没真懂么。40岁前基本定型，不过20几到40之间应该有一个逐渐清晰明朗的过程，或者不一定是边界扩展，而更像是圈内从混沌到清晰的过程？",[827,2663,2664],{},"您有实业经历，又善于聚焦。我们这种非实业经历甚至非企业经历，但是对某些领域感兴趣又长期跟踪的，总是处于知识学习过程，因此会有自己能力圈越来越大，或者越来越清晰的幻觉？",[827,2666,2667,2669,2670,2673],{},[833,2668,944],{}," ：",[833,2671,2672],{},"大概是要亏钱以后才会明白吧。别人不知道，我自己一般是要亏钱以后才会真正明白的。多看看老巴的东西确实有些帮助。"," 无论如何，我们每个人都有个或大或小的能力圈，而且不管发生什么，一般最后大家都会回到自己的能力圈内的。我只是觉得主动在里面呆着比被打回来要好很多而已。",[827,2675,2676],{},"另外，你说的善于聚焦大概是源于习惯。凡事喜欢想明白所以然的习惯其实是可以学的，至少40岁以前可以学哈，也许养成坏习惯后就不容易改了。（2011-12-31）",[827,2678,2679],{},"网友：段大哥，你好，你在回复网友提问时曾提到“扩大自己的能力圈未必是明智的”，这个能不能解释一下？是不是能力圈更多跟经历有关，而且是随着人生发展逐步积累的？努力去扩展不一定能扩大的意思？因为这句话比较难懂，想请你解释一下，谢谢了！",[827,2681,2682,2669,2684,2687],{},[833,2683,944],{},[833,2685,2686],{},"扩大能力圈本身没什么不对，但确实很难，你试试就明白了"," 。（2012-02-05）",[827,2689,2690,1443],{},[833,2691,2692],{},"段永平：不要轻易去“扩大”自己的能力圈。搞懂一个生意往往是需要很多年的，不要因为看到一两个概念就轻易跳进自己不熟悉的领域或地方，不然早晚会栽的。",[827,2694,2695],{},"网友：现在的感觉就是越学习越胆小，反而越不感出手，感觉真正理解一个行业和一个企业真的很难。",[827,2697,2698,2700],{},[833,2699,835],{}," 能够胆小就是进步。理解和搞懂一个企业确实是很难的。我做企业这么多年，开始投资以来觉得自己大致搞得蛮懂的企业不超过10家（排除的不算），下重手的不超过5家，大概平均两年一家而已。（2012-06-26）",[827,2702,2703],{},"网友：两年来本人只买了一个A股股票。感觉不错。港股也投了一个，目前需要做的是多看书，多学习，不断扩大自己的能力圈。",[827,2705,2706,2708],{},[833,2707,835],{}," 其实能力圈很难扩大的，至少靠读书不行。不过，多读点书能告诉自己能力圈有多大。（2012-07-16）",[827,2710,2711],{},"网友D：你说得挺有道理，巴菲特也说“能力范围的大小并不重要，要紧的是你要很清楚自己的能力范围”；而我想了解，投资人通过怎样才能逐渐稍增个人的能力圈？（烦请段总指点一下）",[827,2713,2714,2717],{},[833,2715,2716],{},"段永平：你确定你明白老巴这句话？会打golf的人大概都知道，凡是想打远点儿的时候都是最容易犯错的时候"," 。（2013-10-20）",[827,2719,2720],{},"网友D：请教：股票投资人，怎样才能逐渐增大自己的能力圈？",[827,2722,2723,2725],{},[833,2724,835],{}," 大小不重要，知道边界在哪儿才重要。",[822,2727,2729],{"id":2728},"第七节-不懂就放弃我看不懂的那些生意","第七节 不懂就放弃：我看不懂的那些生意",[827,2731,2732,2669,2734,2737],{},[833,2733,944],{},[833,2735,2736],{},"所谓懂投资的真正含义，我个人的理解其实是懂得不投不懂的东西。"," （2012-08-22）",[827,2739,2740],{},"网友：比亚迪的利润09年确实不错，最主要是汽车好卖，完全靠巴菲特的名气在飙升是你说的，当时巴菲特入股比亚迪引起大家炒比亚迪是真实的！",[827,2742,2743,2745],{},[833,2744,835],{}," 我没买过中石油，也没买过比亚迪。但是，如果中石油回到当年巴菲特买的价钱，我会毫不犹豫跳进去，因为我后来看懂了。如果比亚迪回到当年巴菲特买的价钱，我还是不会买，因为还是不懂。（2010-03-26）",[827,2747,2748,2749,2751,2752,2754,2755,2757,2758,2760,2761,2763,2764,2766,2767,2769],{},"不懂不做，",[833,2750,978],{},"一直如此。但懂有时候要有个过程，",[833,2753,978],{},"也不例外，也会碰到以为懂了但后来发现其实不完全懂的东西。另外，",[833,2756,978],{},"公司还有其他人管投资，",[833,2759,978],{},"是放权给他们做的，但他们的理解有时候和他会不完全一样，所以大家看到的",[833,2762,978],{},"的持股未必一定就是",[833,2765,978],{},"的风格。其实比亚迪就不是",[833,2768,978],{},"的风格，通用汽车也不是。",[827,2771,2772,2773,2775],{},"在石油公司上",[833,2774,978],{},"也认为自己犯了一个几十亿美元的错误(把中石油上赚的钱亏进去很多)。(2012-10-10)",[827,2777,2778],{},"网友：苹果蓝宝石供应商GTAT居然申请破产保护，一天股价暴跌10倍，估计很多人突然发现自己在裸泳了。安全第一，不懂不做。",[827,2780,2781,2784],{},[833,2782,2783],{},"段永平：一觉醒来，“票还在，钱没了”！不懂不碰是铁律"," 。曾经在网上看到很多人在炒这个概念股，看过一眼，看不懂。（2014-10-07）",[827,2786,2787],{},"网友：分众传媒做电梯广告的，单纯生意模式来说算好的生意模式吗？",[827,2789,2790,2792],{},[833,2791,835],{}," 对我没有吸引力。（2019-03-31）",[827,2794,2795,2796,2798],{},"网友：分众传媒对您没吸引力是因为你懂这个生意，只是这个生意模式不够好？还是说分众的这个生意模式不在您的",[848,2797,33],{"href":1142},"范围？",[827,2800,2801,2803],{},[833,2802,835],{}," 大道曾经观察过，很多人在等电梯或坐电梯时都是低头看手机的，那谁来看广告呢？所以这个属于不在能力圈内的事情，看不懂。（2019-04-01）",[827,2805,2806],{},"网友N：说一下对张裕的认识。以前不懂时，\"投资\"过张裕一年多，运气好逃过大跌。后来也有所关注，随着对投资认知的加深，感觉企业偏市场导向，过于在乎营销、利润等，文化不太喜欢，可能个人理解有误。",[827,2808,2809,2811],{},[833,2810,835],{}," 没看过公司，但酒确实不是我愿意喝的那种，所以我不会有任何兴趣去了解这家公司的。（2015-12-01）",[827,2813,2814],{},"网友：段总你好 如何看待音乐APP之间的竞争 网易云音乐怎么突围",[827,2816,2817],{},"大道：我不懂音乐（2026-09-02）",[827,2819,2820],{},[833,2821,2822],{},"看不懂的银行与保险",[827,2824,2825],{},"网友：银行股的估值比他便宜多了，段总就是不相信银行股，银行分享了中国经济的高速增长。因美国次贷危机的阴影，人们远离银行股，造成银行股特别便宜，中国银行业有美国前车之鉴，加上政府监管在加严，中国银行业在五年内是不会有大问题的。呵呵，“危险的地方不危险”。跟老巴的“别人恐惧我贪婪”是相通的，银行股的低估值就是“别人恐惧”造成的。",[827,2827,2828,2830],{},[833,2829,835],{}," 呵呵，我对银行没恐惧感，但确实看不懂。",[827,2832,2833,2834,2837],{},"顺便说下，投资很有趣的地方就是，你能看懂的东西就已经能够让你足够忙和得到足够回报了。另外，要想搞懂自己不擅长的东西往往没有那么容易，同样的",[848,2835,115],{"href":2836},"\u002Fjihuichengben","（时间）在自己明白的圈子里往往有大得多的回报。（2011-03-04）",[827,2839,2840],{},"网友：你之前曾说过：始终没完全搞懂银行的业务的风险到底在哪儿。美国的一些大银行隔个十年八年就来一次大动荡，还没明白是怎么回事。",[827,2842,2843],{},"记得后来你也用一些雅虎换成了BAC（美国银行），不知是不是对银行的业务有了更深的理解看懂了？求教。",[827,2845,2846,2848],{},[833,2847,944],{}," ：我说过是跟着老巴买的哦。BAC的重建成本大概在13块上下（不包括人）；正常年景的盈利大概可以到2块左右（现在没有）；老巴在7块左右买的可转换债券，意味着老巴认为BAC的麻烦已经解决了。所以我在6块上下买了一些。无论如何，银行是用margin的生意，任何时候我都不会重仓的。（2013-02-03）",[827,2850,2851],{},"网友：您曾说下次如果有机会再与老巴吃饭，一定专门请教怎么才能搞懂银行与保险公司，后来有请教了吗？如果有请教了，或您自己悟明白了，可以谈谈您对这方面的理解吗？",[827,2853,2854,2856],{},[833,2855,944],{}," ：大道理明白，细节上不太懂，所以我还是不太会投资这类公司。（2015-05-12）",[827,2858,2859],{},"网友：大道是不是对银行的有打算啦？",[827,2861,2862,2864],{},[833,2863,944],{}," ：没有。最近老巴提了一句，所以我开始想想，准备花几年时间想，因为银行确实不可替代，但实体银行会不会被替代还不知道呢。（2019-03-21）",[827,2866,2867],{},"网友：欢迎大道关注银行。至于实体银行会不会消失，我的答案是不会。举个例子，银行不可能凭企业的线上申请材料放几千万或者几个亿的贷款。贷前调查还是能在很大程度减少信息不对称的。",[827,2869,2870,2872],{},[833,2871,944],{}," ：我不认为实体银行会马上消失，但未来银行很可能和现在很不一样了。互联网，尤其是移动互联网正在改变太多的东西，包括银行。（2019-03-21）",[827,2874,1585,2875,2878],{},[833,2876,2877],{},"伯克希尔","自己有保险业务，相当于买入同行UNH。想听下您的看法。",[827,2880,2881,2883],{},[833,2882,835],{}," 我不懂保险但直觉上觉得UNH前段时间可能遇到了恐慌卖出，很可能是个捡便宜的机会？我前些天还跟朋友说如果老巴买我就跟进一些（就是卖点put的意思），看来明天起我会开始卖点put了。",[827,2885,2886,2887,2889,2890,2892],{},"大致上我觉得UHN的",[848,2888,70],{"href":1374},"还是可以的，",[848,2891,135],{"href":951},"方面不是那么了解但通过AI搜寻，也没看到特别不好的文化。负面新闻说他们的拒赔率高，但事实上他们去年利润并不高（不知道人们能不能看懂这里面的内在联系？）。",[827,2894,2895],{},"保险是个有意思的生意，老巴一直很懂保险，我也一直想搞懂，但一直不得其门而入，希望可以从这里开个头。",[827,2897,2898],{},"隔行如隔山，下不了重手赚不到啥钱。先这样吧，就当做个标记关注一下，说不定哪天就看懂了呢。",[827,2900,2901],{},"（2025-08-15）",[827,2903,2904],{},[833,2905,2906],{},"看不懂的医药",[827,2908,2909],{},"网友：大道，你22年买过的Moderna还在吗？",[827,2911,2912],{},"大道：隔行如隔山，看不懂拿不住，早没了。（2026-08-20）",[827,2914,2915],{},"网友：（分析大道不投资礼来或诺和诺德的原因）",[827,2917,2918],{},"大道：你还别这么说哈。为了赚回打针的成本，其实我是买了点的。但看了半天看不懂，只能就这样吧。（2025-11-20）",[827,2920,2921],{},"网友：请问段老师，您对例如新基制药、百济神州、信达生物等创新药企业关注过吗？您对例如美国CVS等垄断的医药医药销售企业关注吗？在您看来，关注和不关注制药业的缘由是什么呢？",[827,2923,2924,2926],{},[833,2925,944],{}," ：我从来没接触过制药行业，也不打算再花时间去搞懂了。我懂的东西虽然不多，但小日子应该能过了，有时间要干些自己喜欢的事情。（2019-04-10）",[827,2928,2929],{},"网友：对中国药企和创新药板块怎么看？",[827,2931,2932,2934],{},[833,2933,835],{}," 我搞不懂医药，更不知道AI对医药的未来的发展会是什么影响。（2025-10-05）",[827,2936,2937],{},"网友：大道老师请恕我愚钝，请问其中的原因是价格不对？还是文化不好？",[827,2939,2940,2942,2943,2945],{},[833,2941,835],{}," 完全看不懂",[848,2944,70],{"href":1374},"，无法理解为什么会有这种生意，抄作业也是要有大致理解作为前提的。（2025-10-04）",[827,2947,2948,2950],{},[833,2949,835],{}," 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