[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2914},["ShallowReactive",2],{"layout-dao":3,"dao-wenda-invest-04":816,"qanda-chapter-navigation":2502,"dao-related-topics":2550},[4,11,17,22,27,32,37,42,47,52,57,63,69,73,78,82,87,91,96,100,105,109,114,119,124,129,134,140,145,150,155,160,165,170,175,180,185,190,196,201,206,211,216,221,226,231,237,243,248,253,258,263,268,273,278,283,288,293,298,303,308,313,318,323,328,333,338,343,348,353,358,363,368,373,378,383,388,393,398,403,408,413,418,423,430,437,442,447,452,457,462,468,473,478,483,488,492,498,503,508,513,518,523,528,534,539,544,549,554,559,565,570,575,580,585,590,595,600,605,610,616,621,626,631,636,641,647,652,657,662,667,672,678,683,689,695,700,705,710,715,720,725,730,735,740,745,750,755,760,765,770,775,780,785,790,795,800,806,811],{"title":5,"slug":6,"description":7,"category":8,"order":9,"type":10,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"关于本站、来源与更正","about-source-policy","段永平投资问答录是由寻长坡以滚雪球独立整理的中文阅读站。本文说明原文、编者概述、来源核验、日期与更正的处理方式。","关于本站",null,"site-policy",{"title":12,"slug":13,"description":14,"category":15,"order":16,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"本分","benfen","本分是要求自己做该做的事、坚持原则并求责于己。本文从步步高讲话与公开问答梳理五心、诚信和做对事情的关系，解释本分为什么不能用来评判别人。","核心哲学",1,{"title":18,"slug":19,"description":20,"category":15,"order":21,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"平常心","pingchangxin","平常心是回到事物本源、理性思考并把眼光放长远。本文从步步高讲话、投资访谈与王石对谈整理这一理念，解释平常心与进取、稳健经营和长期主义的关系。",2,{"title":23,"slug":24,"description":25,"category":15,"order":26,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"做对的事情","zuoduideshiqing","做对的事情先看方向和原则，发现不对的事情就及时停止。本文整理段永平对本分、不为清单与把事情做对的讨论，说明原则判断和执行能力怎样配合。",3,{"title":28,"slug":29,"description":30,"category":15,"order":31,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"把事情做对","bashiqingzuodui","做对的事情强调原则，把事情做对强调能力、学习与执行。本文整理段永平如何区分两者，为什么发现错误要及时回头，以及两者在经营和投资中的应用。",4,{"title":33,"slug":34,"description":35,"category":15,"order":36,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"能力圈","nengliquan","能力圈重在诚实知道自己懂什么、不懂什么，能判断生意与未来现金流的范围。本文整理段永平对看懂公司、学习扩展与不懂不碰的讨论，而非按行业机械画圈。",5,{"title":38,"slug":39,"description":40,"category":15,"order":41,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"不做什么","buzuoshenme","不做什么是先排除原则性错误，再讨论能力与机会。本文整理段永平的 Stop Doing List、投资三不和企业聚焦案例，说明知道边界如何帮助企业更健康、更长久。",6,{"title":43,"slug":44,"description":45,"category":15,"order":46,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"不做清单与警惕清单","buzuo-yu-jingti","本文分开整理明确不做的事情与需要继续核查的危险信号：不懂不碰、不借钱、不做空，以及现金流、负债和价值陷阱。清单中的概括由编者整理，具体表述见所附问答。",6.5,{"title":48,"slug":49,"description":50,"category":15,"order":51,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"敢为天下后","ganweitianxiahou","敢为天下后、后中争先强调看清用户需求与自身优势，再把产品做好。本文整理段永平对后来者、创新、品质和进入时机的讨论，解释它与盲目模仿的区别。",7,{"title":53,"slug":54,"description":55,"category":15,"order":56,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"消费者导向","xiaofeizhedaoxiang","消费者导向以最终使用者的体验和真实需求为出发点。本文整理段永平对用户导向、市场导向和利润导向的区分，讨论产品创新及长期经营中的取舍。",8,{"title":58,"slug":59,"description":60,"category":61,"order":62,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"价值投资","jiazhitouzi","价值投资从理解企业和未来现金流出发。本文整理段永平对买股票就是买公司、能力圈、价格与长期持有的讨论，说明投资与投机在判断依据上的差别。","投资理念",9,{"title":64,"slug":65,"description":66,"category":67,"order":68,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"负债","fuzhai","看负债需要区分有息负债、无息负债及其经营用途。本文整理段永平对低负债、企业价值和房地产财报的讨论，说明不能只用总负债率判断一门生意。","财务指标",10,{"title":70,"slug":71,"description":72,"category":61,"order":68,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"商业模式","shangyemoshi","生意模式就是公司赚钱的模式，判断时要看护城河、长期现金流和企业文化。本文整理段永平为何先用生意模式筛选公司，并对照苹果、网易、GE与Zoom案例。",{"title":74,"slug":75,"description":76,"category":61,"order":77,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"护城河","huchenghe","护城河是保护长期盈利与未来现金流的竞争优势，也属于生意模式的一部分。本文整理段永平对差异化、企业文化和可持续性的判断，以及苹果、茅台等案例。",11,{"title":79,"slug":80,"description":81,"category":67,"order":77,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"净现金","jingxianjin","净现金需要结合现金、负债及实际经营需要来理解。本文整理段永平对网易、苹果与企业价值的讨论，说明现金安全垫并不等于公司一定值得买。",{"title":83,"slug":84,"description":85,"category":67,"order":86,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"开销合理性","kaixiaohelixing","经营开销要看是否真正改善产品、效率与长期价值。本文整理段永平对广告、管理费用和扩张投入的讨论，区分必要支出与为了增长而盲目花钱。",12,{"title":88,"slug":89,"description":90,"category":67,"order":86,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"现金流","xianjinliu","现金流帮助判断利润质量和公司长期价值。本文整理段永平关于未来现金流、真实利润、护城河与资本支出的讨论，说明看现金流需要联系生意而非只看一个数字。",{"title":92,"slug":93,"description":94,"category":67,"order":95,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"真实利润","zhenshilirun","真实利润需要结合现金流、资产质量与经营持续性来理解。本文整理段永平对财报、折旧、资本支出和纸上盈利的讨论，帮助区分报表数字与实际生意。",13,{"title":97,"slug":98,"description":99,"category":61,"order":95,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"折现","zhexian","未来现金流折现是理解公司价值的一种思维方式。本文整理段永平对折现率、机会成本和毛估估的讨论，说明估值为何先依赖看懂生意，而非精确计算。",{"title":101,"slug":102,"description":103,"category":61,"order":104,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"安全边际","anquanbianji","在段永平的表述中，安全边际与对生意的理解、能力圈和未来现金流有关，不能只看股价便宜。本文整理相关问答、网易与苹果案例及常见误解。",14,{"title":106,"slug":107,"description":108,"category":67,"order":104,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"扣除商誉的净资产","jingzichan","净资产的数字需要联系资产能否产生现金流来判断。本文整理段永平对商誉、有效资产与企业价值的讨论，说明账面净资产为什么不能独立决定投资价值。",{"title":110,"slug":111,"description":112,"category":61,"order":113,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"基本面","jibenmian","基本面包括生意模式、企业文化、产品竞争力和长期盈利能力。本文整理段永平如何研究公司，为什么股价走势不能替代对生意本身的理解。",15,{"title":115,"slug":116,"description":117,"category":61,"order":118,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"机会成本","jihuichengben","机会成本是选择一项投资时放弃的其他机会，也影响估值的比较标准。本文整理段永平关于持有、换股与折现率的问答，解释不同投资者为何会作出不同判断。",16,{"title":120,"slug":121,"description":122,"category":61,"order":123,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"长期持有","zhangqichiyou","长期持有应以持续理解公司价值为前提。本文整理段永平对投资长期、持有就是买入、机会成本和卖出条件的讨论，说明持有时间本身不能替代投资判断。",17,{"title":125,"slug":126,"description":127,"category":61,"order":128,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"投机","touji","在段永平的投资框架中，关键是看判断来自生意价值还是价格变化。本文整理相关访谈和问答，讨论市场预测、短期交易与价值投资的区别。",18,{"title":130,"slug":131,"description":132,"category":61,"order":133,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"止损","zhisun","股价下跌本身与发现投资判断错误需要区分。本文整理段永平对止损、成本价和卖出条件的问答，说明价值投资中怎样从生意变化与机会成本重新审视持有。",19,{"title":135,"slug":136,"description":137,"category":138,"order":139,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"企业文化","qiyewenhua","企业文化体现为团队认同并坚持的价值观与行为。本文整理段永平对本分、诚信、用户导向和利润之上追求的讨论，以及文化如何保护或毁掉好生意。","企业经营",20,{"title":141,"slug":142,"description":143,"category":138,"order":144,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"品牌","pinpai","品牌是消费者对产品与服务的长期认知。本文整理段永平对广告、品质、信任和价格的讨论，以及小霸王、步步高与苹果案例，说明品牌如何建立和被破坏。",21,{"title":146,"slug":147,"description":148,"category":138,"order":149,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"差异化","chayihua","差异化来自满足用户真实需求，不能只追求与别人不同。本文整理段永平对产品、价格竞争和护城河的解释，以及苹果和消费电子的相关案例。",22,{"title":151,"slug":152,"description":153,"category":138,"order":154,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"定价权","dingjiaquan","定价权来自用户认可的差异化和长期价值。本文整理段永平有关提价、合理定价、价格战与护城河的问答，并对照苹果、喜诗糖果和可口可乐案例。",22.5,{"title":156,"slug":157,"description":158,"category":138,"order":159,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"用户体验","yonghutiyan","用户体验要从消费者真实使用产品的感受出发。本文整理段永平对功能、品质、产品成本与苹果生态的讨论，说明满足需求比追逐概念更值得关注。",23,{"title":161,"slug":162,"description":163,"category":138,"order":164,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"渠道","qudao","渠道要看产品如何到达用户、各方如何合作及总成本是否合理。本文整理段永平对步步高代理制、价格体系和苹果渠道的讨论，说明渠道与产品、品牌的关系。",24,{"title":166,"slug":167,"description":168,"category":138,"order":169,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"平台","pingtai","平台的价值需要联系用户体验、网络协作和持续盈利来判断。本文整理段永平分析苹果平台与生态的相关表述，讨论平台优势如何进入生意模式和护城河。",25,{"title":171,"slug":172,"description":173,"category":138,"order":174,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"生态系统","shengtaixitong","生态系统的价值来自产品、软件与服务相互协作形成的用户体验。本文整理段永平关于苹果生态、用户黏度和竞争优势的表述，讨论它与平台、护城河的关系。",26,{"title":176,"slug":177,"description":178,"category":138,"order":179,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"单一产品","danyichanpin","单一产品模式重在集中资源把产品做好，降低渠道和管理复杂度。本文整理段永平的消费电子经验与苹果案例，讨论聚焦的价值、适用范围和常见误解。",27,{"title":181,"slug":182,"description":183,"category":138,"order":184,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"造钟人","zaozhongren","造钟人建立能持续运转的组织、制度与文化，报时人更多依靠个人判断。本文整理段永平引用《基业长青》的框架及对乔布斯、苹果与企业传承的讨论。",28,{"title":186,"slug":187,"description":188,"category":138,"order":189,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"利润之上的追求","lirunzhishangdezhuiqiu","利润之上的追求关注企业为何存在、为用户创造什么价值。本文整理段永平对使命、产品和长期盈利的讨论，说明这一理念与赚钱的关系及苹果等案例。",29,{"title":191,"slug":192,"description":193,"category":194,"order":195,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"进取心","jinquxin","进取心与平常心共同构成本分文化：认真投入、提升能力，同时追求健康长久。本文整理步步高讲话与相关问答，讨论发展目标、拼搏精神和急功近利的边界。","品格与心性",30,{"title":197,"slug":198,"description":199,"category":194,"order":200,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"耐心","naixin","耐心既是企业长期积累的基础，也是投资中等待理解与机会的能力。本文整理步步高讲话、巴菲特午餐访谈和公开问答，讨论慢慢变富与盲目坚持的区别。",31,{"title":202,"slug":203,"description":204,"category":194,"order":205,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"责任心","zerenxin","责任心是对团队和家庭承担责任，也是本分五心的一部分。本文整理步步高讲话与相关问答，讨论合作、员工关怀及把责任落到日常行为中的含义。",32,{"title":207,"slug":208,"description":209,"category":194,"order":210,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"爱心","aixin","爱心在本分文化中连接团队、家庭与公益。本文整理段永平对关心员工、陪伴孩子和以身作则的讨论，并区分他的原话与编者解释。",33,{"title":212,"slug":213,"description":214,"category":194,"order":215,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"信誉","xinyu","信誉体现在履行承诺和为原则付出代价时。本文整理段永平的经营访谈、合同案例与相关问答，解释诚信为何应成为本分，而不是换取利益的手段。",34,{"title":217,"slug":218,"description":219,"category":194,"order":220,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"正直","zhengzhi","正直与诚信要求在利益冲突中坚持原则，并兑现承诺。本文整理段永平对 integrity、做人和企业文化的讨论，说明它与本分、理性及长期经营的关系。",35,{"title":222,"slug":223,"description":224,"category":194,"order":225,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"理性","lixing","理性意味着回到事实与本质，减少情绪、短期得失和外界干扰。本文整理段永平对平常心、长期主义和投资决策的讨论，并保留各段引文的具体语境。",36,{"title":227,"slug":228,"description":229,"category":194,"order":230,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"长期主义","zhangqizhuyi","长期主义强调关注行动的长远后果，追求更健康、更长久。本文整理段永平关于平常心、经营积累与王石对谈的表述，讨论长期视角与短期取舍的关系。",37,{"title":232,"slug":233,"description":234,"category":235,"order":236,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平推荐书单","tuijianshudan","本文区分段永平明确推荐、读过称赞及并不推荐的书，整理《巴菲特致股东的信》等阅读线索。推荐强度以正文原话为准，避免把所有提及过的书都列为推荐。","推荐书单",50,{"title":238,"slug":239,"description":240,"category":241,"order":242,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1998年段永平对步步高所有营销人员的讲话","duanyongping-1998nian-bubugao-yingxiaorenyuan-jianghua","段永平面向步步高营销人员阐述本分、信誉、聚焦、敢为天下后与不攻击对手等经营原则。","访谈实录",98,{"title":244,"slug":245,"description":246,"category":241,"order":247,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1998年巴菲特佛罗里达大学演讲","buffett-1998nian-foluolida-daxue-yanjiang","巴菲特1998年佛罗里达大学演讲及问答，讨论能力圈、企业价值、投资错误、集中投资与人生选择。",99,{"title":249,"slug":250,"description":251,"category":241,"order":252,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1999年 《都市快报》采访手记","duanyongping-1999nian-doushikuaibao-caifangshouji","段永平畅谈本分做人做企业的理念，回顾从小霸王到步步高的创业历程，强调信誉、股份制与平常心的重要性。",100,{"title":254,"slug":255,"description":256,"category":241,"order":257,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1999年 步步高讲话","duanyongping-1999nian-bubugaojianghua","段永平阐述步步高企业的本分精神，强调平常心、进取心、耐心、责任心和爱心是企业生存发展的基本原则。",101,{"title":259,"slug":260,"description":261,"category":241,"order":262,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"1999年做客人民大学精彩问答实录","duanyongping-1999nianzuokerenmindaxuejingcaiwendashilu","段永平在人民大学分享本分经营、敢为天下后、焦点法则等企业理念，并与学生互动探讨创业、品牌与人生。",102,{"title":264,"slug":265,"description":266,"category":241,"order":267,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2000年 《销售与市场》杂志专访","duanyongping-2000nian-xiaoshouyushichang-zazhizhuanfang","段永平谈步步高的品牌定位、本分竞争哲学、广告策略，强调不创造利润的企业是罪恶的，反对盲目多元化。",103,{"title":269,"slug":270,"description":271,"category":241,"order":272,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2000年在央视“品牌与传播国际论坛”上的演讲","duanyongping-2000nianzaiyangshi-pinpaiyuchuanboguojiluntan-shangdeyanjiang","段永平分享在央视投放广告的实战经验，强调广告只是经营环节之一，产品品质才是品牌根基。",104,{"title":274,"slug":275,"description":276,"category":241,"order":277,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2000追逐世界的节奏 —— 《经营者》杂志2000年，步步高总经理访谈记录","duanyongping-2000zhuizhushijiedejiezou-jingyingzhe-zazhi2000nian-bubugaozongjing","全面回顾段永平从小霸王到步步高的创业历程，详述品牌运作、本分信誉、高速公路经营哲学与平常心理念。",105,{"title":279,"slug":280,"description":281,"category":241,"order":282,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2001《经营天下：高峰论坛 之 段永平》—— 2001年末中国20位行业巨头面对面访谈录","duanyongping-2001-jingyingtianxia-gaofengluntan-zhi-duanyongping-2001nianmozhong","段永平深度阐述诚信为本、安全发展、敢为天下后、反对盲目创新与多元化等企业经营核心理念。",106,{"title":284,"slug":285,"description":286,"category":241,"order":287,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2001年 我为什么要去读书？ —— 《读者》2001年11月刊","duanyongping-2001nian-woweishenmeyaoqudushu-duzhe-2001nian11yuekan","段永平讲述在中欧商学院读MBA的原因：系统学习管理知识以应对WTO竞争，并推动全员学习降低沟通成本。",107,{"title":289,"slug":290,"description":291,"category":241,"order":292,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2001年《世界经理人文摘》专访","duanyongping-2001nian-shijiejinglirenwenzhai-zhuanfang","段永平详解敢为天下后战略：后来者如何通过综合素质、品质管理和平常心实现后来居上。",108,{"title":294,"slug":295,"description":296,"category":241,"order":297,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2002年 CCTV2经济频道《卖点》栏目采访：投影机能否走进家庭？","duanyongping-2002nian-cctv2jingjipindao-maidian-lanmucaifang-touyingjinengfouzou","段永平作为嘉宾为创业公司把脉，建议先在专业市场站稳脚跟，通过差异化竞争和定向宣传求生存发展。",109,{"title":299,"slug":300,"description":301,"category":241,"order":302,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2003年北京大学总裁班演讲座谈会全程实录","duanyongping-2003nianbeijingdaxuezongcaibanyanjiangzuotanhuiquanchengshilu","段永平在北大系统阐述诚信为本、平常心经营、消费者导向等理念，并就选人用人、企业管理等问题答疑。",110,{"title":304,"slug":305,"description":306,"category":241,"order":307,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2004财富人生—段永平 2004 采访","duanyongping-2004caifurensheng-duanyongping-2004-caifang","段永平回顾明星广告策略的商业逻辑，讲述施瓦辛格广告风波中坚守本分、信守合同承诺的故事。",111,{"title":309,"slug":310,"description":311,"category":241,"order":312,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2005年步步高十周年“记”念晚会：段永平发言","duanyongping-2005nianbubugaoshizhounian-ji-nianwanhui-duanyongpingfayan","段永平在步步高十周年回顾企业理念，确立本分、诚信等核心价值观，提出“更健康更长久”的企业愿景。",112,{"title":314,"slug":315,"description":316,"category":241,"order":317,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2006年 深度对话网易证券全程实录","duanyongping-2006nian-shenduduihuawangyizhengquanquanchengshilu","段永平分享巴菲特午餐竞拍背后的故事，详述价值投资理念、网易投资经历及从做企业到做投资的转型心得。",113,{"title":319,"slug":320,"description":321,"category":241,"order":322,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2006年做客新浪财经频道聊天全实录","duanyongping-2006nianzuokexinlangcaijingpindaoliaotianquanshilu","段永平首次做客新浪聊天，谈与巴菲特午餐缘起、价值投资理念、投资网易始末及慈善观。",114,{"title":324,"slug":325,"description":326,"category":241,"order":327,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2006年浙大“实话实说”","duanyongping-2006nianzheda-shihuashishuo","段永平捐赠浙大后座谈，谈教育捐赠初衷、求是精神、学生应脚踏实地而非空立大志，享受过程最重要。",115,{"title":329,"slug":330,"description":331,"category":241,"order":332,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2007年与巴菲特共进午餐后网易专访","duanyongping-2007nianyubafeitegongjinwucanhouwangyizhuanfang","段永平分享巴菲特午餐感悟，强调买股票就是买公司、耐心等待好价格、长期持有的价值投资原则。",116,{"title":334,"slug":335,"description":336,"category":241,"order":337,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2007年波士堂访谈","duanyongping-2007nianboshitangfangtan","段永平做客波士堂，谈步步高敢为天下后策略、消费者导向、追求健康长寿而非企业规模。",117,{"title":339,"slug":340,"description":341,"category":241,"order":342,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2009年 深度专访： 探讨公益人生，分享成功体会","duanyongping-2009nian-shenduzhuanfang-tantaogongyirensheng-fenxiangchenggongtihu","段永平深度访谈，谈成功定义、慈善理念、本分诚信的企业文化、家庭与事业的平衡。",118,{"title":344,"slug":345,"description":346,"category":241,"order":347,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2009年《21世纪经济报道》独家专访：我不认为巴菲特是股神（2009年）","duanyongping-2009nian-21shijijingjibaodao-dujiazhuanfang-woburenweibafeiteshigus","段永平第二次与巴菲特午餐后受访，强调不要神化巴菲特、以平常心学习其投资智慧。",119,{"title":349,"slug":350,"description":351,"category":241,"order":352,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2009浙大MBA分享：企业追求的是稳健的发展，基本功最重要","duanyongping-2009zhedambafenxiang-qiyezhuiqiudeshiwenjiandefazhan-jibengongzuizh","段永平浙大MBA分享，谈企业基本功、本分文化的核心价值、稳健发展胜过盲目扩张。",120,{"title":354,"slug":355,"description":356,"category":241,"order":357,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2010年 步步高董事长段永平和人大校长纪宝成记者会实录","duanyongping-2010nian-bubugaodongshizhangduanyongpingherendaxiaozhangjibaochengj","段永平向人大捐赠3000万美元，谈配比基金模式、教育慈善理念及校友回馈责任。",121,{"title":359,"slug":360,"description":361,"category":241,"order":362,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2011年买入苹果思考","duanyongping-2011nianmairupingguosikao","段永平分析苹果商业模式，论其单品策略、生态系统护城河、消费者导向及长期投资价值。",122,{"title":364,"slug":365,"description":366,"category":241,"order":367,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2011年浙大演讲","duanyongping-2013nianzhedayanjiang","段永平浙大演讲三要点：脚踏实地做事、知道什么不该做、做正直的人。",123,{"title":369,"slug":370,"description":371,"category":241,"order":372,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2015年库克乔治·华盛顿大学毕业典礼演讲：找到你的北斗星","tim-cook-2015nian-huashengdundaxue-biyeyanjiang","蒂姆·库克在2015年乔治·华盛顿大学毕业典礼上谈价值观、平等、乔布斯的影响与人生方向。本页为中文整理译文，原始报道和视频见来源链接。",124,{"title":374,"slug":375,"description":376,"category":241,"order":377,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2015年vivo 20周年晚宴沈炜讲话","shenwei-2015nian-vivo-20zhounian-wanyan-jianghua","沈炜在vivo二十周年晚宴回顾创业历程，讨论本分文化、用户导向、产品转型与企业愿景。",125,{"title":379,"slug":380,"description":381,"category":241,"order":382,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2016年浙大60周年专访","duanyongping-2016nianzheda60zhounianzhuanfang","段永平回忆浙大岁月，阐述做对的事情哲学、北极星概念及人生选择建议。",126,{"title":384,"slug":385,"description":386,"category":241,"order":387,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2018年段永平斯坦福大学53问","duanyongping-2018nian-sitanfu-daxue-53wen","段永平在斯坦福大学回答53个问题，涉及人生、企业经营、产品、投资、家庭与黄峥等话题。",127,{"title":389,"slug":390,"description":391,"category":241,"order":392,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2024年费德勒达特茅斯毕业演讲（节译）：努力与失败","feidele-2024nian-biyeyanjiang","费德勒2024年达特茅斯学院毕业演讲的中文节译，选取“毫不费力是个神话”与“这只是一分”两课，谈训练、纪律和面对失败。完整演讲见校方原文。",128,{"title":394,"slug":395,"description":396,"category":241,"order":397,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年浙江大学演讲及问答完整版","duanyongping-2025nianzhejiangdaxueyanjiangjiwendawanzhengban","段永平浙大2025年演讲，谈做对的事情、AI时代机遇、创业投资心得及本分文化实践。",129,{"title":399,"slug":400,"description":401,"category":241,"order":402,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年谈躺平与内卷、与王石交流子女教育","duanyongping-2025niantantangpingyuneijuan-yuwangshijiaoliuzinvjiaoyu","段永平与王石对谈，论投资哲学、文化传承、营销本质、子女教育及平常心即长期主义。",130,{"title":404,"slug":405,"description":406,"category":241,"order":407,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年：方三文对话段永平：做自己能够喜欢的事情很重要","duanyongping-2025nian-fangsanwenduihuaduanyongping-zuozijinenggouxihuandeshiqing","段永平与方三文深度对话，谈个人经历、企业文化传承、苹果茅台投资逻辑及AI与教育。",131,{"title":409,"slug":410,"description":411,"category":241,"order":412,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"2025年vivo 30周年纪念晚宴沈炜致辞","shenwei-2025nian-vivo-30zhounian-wanyan-zhici","沈炜在vivo三十周年晚宴回顾步步高与vivo发展，阐释本分、用户导向、平常心与企业长期健康。",132,{"title":414,"slug":415,"description":416,"category":241,"order":417,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平步步高内部讲话：道先于术","duanyongping-bubugao-neibujianghua-daoxianyushu","段永平在步步高内部讲话中谈道先于术、沉没成本、是非不给利益让路，以及企业文化是木桶的底板。",133,{"title":419,"slug":420,"description":421,"category":241,"order":422,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平投资问答录｜核心精简版","duanyongping-touzi-wendalu-hexin-jingjianban","编者从本站问答档案中精选214组问答与论述，按投资、经营与人生主题重排。适合先读核心观点，再通过完整章节核对提问语境；本页为编辑选编。",134,{"title":424,"slug":425,"description":426,"category":427,"order":428,"type":429,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"投资问答录主题目录","wenda-topic-index","七卷主题目录按投资起点、理解企业、财报估值、经营、公司、行业和人生组织47章问答。读者可以沿主线阅读，也可按公司或小节直接查阅。","投资问答录",190,"topic-index",{"title":431,"slug":432,"description":433,"category":427,"order":434,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":16},"买股票就是买公司与价值投资","wenda-invest-01","买股票就是买公司，要先理解生意与长期价值。该章整理价值投资的定义、投资与经营的关系、没有捷径及好公司与好价格的问答。",200,"qanda-chapter","投资的起点与边界",{"title":438,"slug":439,"description":440,"category":427,"order":441,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":21},"投资为什么简单但不容易","wenda-invest-02","投资逻辑可以简单，长期坚持正确过程却不容易。该章整理价值投资的难点、悟性与实践、适合投资的人及小资金问题。",201,{"title":443,"slug":444,"description":445,"category":427,"order":446,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":26},"看懂生意与能力圈","wenda-invest-03","看懂生意需要背景知识和诚实的边界意识。该章整理商业模式、企业文化、研究公司、概率与能力圈的问答，说明不懂时为何可以放弃。",202,{"title":448,"slug":449,"description":450,"category":427,"order":451,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":31},"风险第一：不做空、不借钱、不懂不碰","wenda-invest-04","投资先考虑避免出局，再谈回报。该章整理不做空、不借钱、不用杠杆、不懂不碰和公司负债问题，以及段永平对错误的复盘。",203,{"title":453,"slug":454,"description":455,"category":427,"order":456,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":36},"市场波动、宏观与牛熊","wenda-invest-05","股价波动、宏观变化与公司价值需要分开理解。该章整理投票器与称重机、市场噪声、经济、通胀、汇率、指数及牛熊的问答。",204,{"title":458,"slug":459,"description":460,"category":427,"order":461,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":41},"投资心态、理性与学习方法","wenda-invest-12","理性与学习方法影响投资过程。该章整理平常心、投资经验、高尔夫启发和书籍选择，强调学习思考逻辑而非只复制别人的结论。",205,{"title":463,"slug":464,"description":465,"category":427,"order":466,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":16},"伟大企业与长坡厚雪","wenda-business-01","伟大企业要看长期竞争力、诚信和持续盈利。该章整理段永平对伟大企业标准、长坡厚雪与增长空间的问答，保留提问语境和原文日期。",206,"怎样看懂好企业",{"title":469,"slug":470,"description":471,"category":427,"order":472,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":21},"商业模式与投资确定性","wenda-business-02","生意模式是理解公司赚钱方式与长期确定性的起点。该章整理定义、护城河、未来现金流及苦生意特征的问答，帮助比较不同公司的模式。",207,{"title":474,"slug":475,"description":476,"category":427,"order":477,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":26},"护城河与差异化","wenda-business-03","护城河来自能够持续的竞争优势与差异化。该章整理垄断、定价权、用户需求和难以差异化行业的讨论，说明竞争优势需要继续检验。",208,{"title":479,"slug":480,"description":481,"category":427,"order":482,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":31},"好产品与用户导向","wenda-business-04","产品判断应先看最终消费者的真实体验。该章整理消费者导向与市场、利润导向的区别，以及好产品的标准、观察方法和实际案例。",209,{"title":484,"slug":485,"description":486,"category":427,"order":487,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":36},"品牌的本质","wenda-business-06","品牌是消费者长期认知的积累，需要产品和服务持续兑现。该章整理品牌、价格、名称、品牌建立及不容易形成品牌的生意等讨论。",210,{"title":135,"slug":489,"description":490,"category":427,"order":491,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":41},"wenda-business-08","企业文化要从企业长期的行为与选择中理解。该章整理文化的定义、判断方法、建立和传承，并保留具体公司案例及不同语境。",211,{"title":493,"slug":494,"description":495,"category":427,"order":496,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":16},"财报、现金流、ROE与净资产","wenda-invest-09","财报帮助核对一门生意的表现，不能用单个指标替代理解。该章整理现金流、真实利润、净资产、负债、ROE与指标边界的问答。",212,"财报、估值与投资决策",{"title":499,"slug":500,"description":501,"category":427,"order":502,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":21},"估值的起点：定性判断与现金流折现","wenda-invest-07","估值先依赖定性判断，再用毛估估理解内在价值。该章整理未来现金流折现、价值与价格的问答，说明估值是一种思维方式。",213,{"title":504,"slug":505,"description":506,"category":427,"order":507,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":26},"折现率、PE与估值案例","wenda-invest-07-cases","估值数字要与生意质量、负债和机会成本一起看。该章整理折现率、PE、EV的使用边界，以及万科、GE、茅台和现金流折现的案例。",214,{"title":509,"slug":510,"description":511,"category":427,"order":512,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":31},"分红、回购与资本配置","wenda-invest-10","资本配置要看资金如何为股东创造长期价值。该章整理分红、回购、债务和公司作为买家的讨论，保留价格、财务状况等判断前提。",215,{"title":514,"slug":515,"description":516,"category":427,"order":517,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":36},"长期持有、集中投资与机会成本","wenda-invest-06","长期持有、集中投资和卖出都需要回到公司价值与机会成本。该章整理持有期限、好公司与好价格、仓位和投资取舍的问答。",216,{"title":519,"slug":520,"description":521,"category":427,"order":522,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":41},"买卖时机与“持有就是买入”","wenda-invest-08","持有需要不断重新作出买入判断，卖出也应看价值与机会。该章整理买入与历史价格、卖出与成本价、持有就是买入及该卖的时候。",217,{"title":524,"slug":525,"description":526,"category":427,"order":527,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":51},"投机、套利、量化与衍生品","wenda-invest-11","该章区分投资、投机与套利的判断依据，整理期权、卖put、量化和衍生品的历史问答。操作细节须结合原问题和当时条件理解。",218,{"title":529,"slug":530,"description":531,"category":427,"order":532,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":16},"本分、平常心与利润之上的追求","wenda-business-09","本分要求自己坚持原则，平常心强调理性想长远。该章整理信誉、承诺、利润之上的追求及其长期结果，区分原话与问题中的假设。",219,"怎样经营企业",{"title":535,"slug":536,"description":537,"category":427,"order":538,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":21},"Stop Doing List、聚焦与更健康更长久","wenda-business-11","不为清单先排除不该做的事情，再集中资源把产品做好。该章整理价格战、份额、性价比、聚焦与更健康更长久的经营原则。",220,{"title":540,"slug":541,"description":542,"category":427,"order":543,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":26},"创新与敢为天下后","wenda-business-05","创新需要满足真实用户需求，敢为天下后也需要自己的差异化。该章整理创新边界、专利、环境与后中争先的经营问答。",221,{"title":545,"slug":546,"description":547,"category":427,"order":548,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":31},"营销、广告、渠道与出海","wenda-business-07","营销和广告需要表达产品价值，渠道需要匹配价格与合作关系。该章整理广告投入、代言、价格体系、渠道及国际市场的经营问答。",222,{"title":550,"slug":551,"description":552,"category":427,"order":553,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":36},"创始人、CEO、团队与激励","wenda-business-10","组织长期发展涉及创始人、管理层、授权、团队与公平激励。该章整理造钟人、CEO、董事会、选人育人和规矩的问答。",223,{"title":555,"slug":556,"description":557,"category":427,"order":558,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":41},"收购与多元化","wenda-business-12","多元化与收购要看企业是否懂得新业务、能否创造长期价值。该章整理业务边界、收购条件、多品牌与分拆的问答及案例。",224,{"title":560,"slug":561,"description":562,"category":427,"order":563,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":16},"苹果：产品、商业模式与生态","wenda-company-apple-01","该章整理段永平认识苹果产品和生意模式的过程，涉及单一产品、用户体验、生态、取舍，以及与安卓、三星的竞争。",225,"重点公司深读",{"title":566,"slug":567,"description":568,"category":427,"order":569,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":21},"苹果：管理层与企业文化","wenda-company-apple-02","该章整理段永平对乔布斯、库克与苹果企业文化的评价，讨论报时人和造钟人、接班、产品精神及利润之上的追求。",226,{"title":571,"slug":572,"description":573,"category":427,"order":574,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":26},"苹果：估值、持有与资本配置","wenda-company-apple-03","该章按历史语境整理段永平买入和持有苹果的判断，涉及估值指标、股价下跌、分红、回购、现金与成熟期的公司价值。",227,{"title":576,"slug":577,"description":578,"category":427,"order":579,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":31},"贵州茅台：产品、品牌与商业模式","wenda-company-maotai-01","该章整理段永平对茅台品质、品牌、消费者心智与生意模式的问答，讨论护城河及产品文化和企业文化的关系。",228,{"title":581,"slug":582,"description":583,"category":427,"order":584,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":36},"贵州茅台：治理、渠道与i茅台","wenda-company-maotai-02","该章整理茅台治理、多元化、假酒、渠道和i茅台相关问答，关注直购、直销与价格体系，保留历史背景和问题中的前提。",229,{"title":586,"slug":587,"description":588,"category":427,"order":589,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":41},"贵州茅台：估值与投资判断","wenda-company-maotai-03","该章整理段永平在塑化剂事件、买入增持及长期持有茅台时的判断，涉及估值、价格、分红、回购与资本配置。",230,{"title":591,"slug":592,"description":593,"category":427,"order":594,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":51},"小霸王与步步高","wenda-company-bbk","该章整理小霸王与步步高的创业和经营问答，涉及本分诚信、不上市、不为清单、产品品牌及长期发展，保留不同年份的语境。",231,{"title":596,"slug":597,"description":598,"category":427,"order":599,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":56},"网易","wenda-company-netease","该章整理段永平发现、买入与持有网易的过程，涉及梦幻西游、丁磊、团队、现金、回购和卖出，保留不同年份的判断。",232,{"title":601,"slug":602,"description":603,"category":427,"order":604,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":62},"阿里巴巴与雅虎","wenda-company-alibaba-yahoo","该章按历史语境整理段永平投资雅虎、理解阿里股权与评价阿里文化的问答，涉及管理层、使命、假货争议、电商竞争及卖出后的观察。",233,{"title":606,"slug":607,"description":608,"category":427,"order":609,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":68},"泡泡玛特","wenda-company-pop-mart","该章呈现段永平从看不懂到重新理解泡泡玛特的过程，涉及情绪价值、壁垒、王宁、门店体验与投资操作，保留观点变化的时间语境。",234,{"title":611,"slug":612,"description":613,"category":427,"order":614,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":16},"消费电子与日本制造","wenda-company-consumer-electronics","该章整理段永平对消费电子及日本制造的历史观察，涉及国产企业、诺基亚、摩托罗拉、联想及日本公司，重点关注产品与竞争。",235,"行业与公司对照",{"title":617,"slug":618,"description":619,"category":427,"order":620,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":21},"游戏行业与中国游戏公司","wenda-company-china-games","该章整理段永平对游戏生意、好游戏、玩家体验与行业变化的问答，保留社会争议、估值和中国游戏公司案例的具体语境。",236,{"title":622,"slug":623,"description":624,"category":427,"order":625,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":26},"互联网、科技与新产业","wenda-company-tech-platforms","该章整理互联网平台、科技与新产业的公开问答，关注产品、商业模式、长期竞争力与看不懂的边界，各公司判断保留历史语境。",237,{"title":627,"slug":628,"description":629,"category":427,"order":630,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":31},"零售与服务业案例","wenda-company-retail-services","该章整理零售、服务、教育培训及航空业的公司问答，关注用户需求、生意模式和能力圈，也包含投资卖出与反思案例。",238,{"title":632,"slug":633,"description":634,"category":427,"order":635,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":36},"能源与工业企业案例","wenda-company-energy-industrial","该章整理西方石油、GE、代工业和光伏等案例，关注看懂生意、行业周期与投资反思；各段判断应结合发言日期理解。",239,{"title":637,"slug":638,"description":639,"category":427,"order":640,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":41},"传统行业公司群像","wenda-company-traditional-industries","该章按行业整理家电、汽车、食品、地产、园林与银行案例，涉及国企机制、产品竞争和估值，帮助对照不同行业的生意特征。",240,{"title":642,"slug":643,"description":644,"category":427,"order":645,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":16},"做对的事情与把事情做对","wenda-life-01","该章整理做对的事情、把事情做对与不该做的事情，涉及巴菲特、芒格、个人经历、练习和面对质疑，保留平常心的生活语境。",241,"人生与成长",{"title":648,"slug":649,"description":650,"category":427,"order":651,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":21},"正直、理性与长期视角","wenda-life-02","该章整理段永平对正直、诚信、原则和理性的讨论，关注长期视角与脚踏实地，帮助理解本分如何进入日常选择。",242,{"title":653,"slug":654,"description":655,"category":427,"order":656,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":26},"职业、创业与享受过程","wenda-life-03","职业和创业需要理解自己，并找到愿意长期投入的事情。该章整理段永平对职业选择、创业、喜欢的工作与享受过程的问答。",243,{"title":658,"slug":659,"description":660,"category":427,"order":661,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":31},"家庭、孩子与教育","wenda-life-04","该章整理段永平的家庭与教育问答，涉及陪伴、安全感、学习、金钱、游戏、边界和传承，呈现个人经验及问题的具体背景。",244,{"title":663,"slug":664,"description":665,"category":427,"order":666,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":36},"学习、阅读与公益","wenda-life-05","该章整理开放学习、阅读、AI学习与公益相关问答，关注思考逻辑、教育公益和长期环境，保留推荐、转述与个人观点的区别。",245,{"title":668,"slug":669,"description":670,"category":427,"order":671,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":41},"运动、睡眠与高尔夫","wenda-life-06","该章保存段永平关于运动、力量训练、睡眠、体检和高尔夫的个人经验问答。健康相关发言保留日期与语境，不能据此替代个人医疗判断。",246,{"title":673,"slug":674,"description":675,"category":676,"order":677,"type":9,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平如何研究一家公司：从产品、年报到企业文化","duanyongping-kan-dong-yijia-gongsi","根据段永平的公开问答，整理研究一家公司的资料清单、阅读顺序和判断框架：产品、商业模式、企业文化、财报、专项验证与估值。","公司与人物",417,{"title":676,"slug":679,"description":680,"category":676,"order":681,"type":682,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"gongsi-yu-renwu","按段永平视角整理他高度评价、明显关注或正在重估的公司与人物，保留原文依据和边界条件。",5000,"index",{"title":684,"slug":685,"description":686,"category":676,"order":687,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"苹果：段永平为什么高度评价这家公司","company-apple","段永平最看重苹果的地方，不只是产品好，而是苹果在强企业文化下形成了强大的生态系统、商业模式和长期聚焦“做对的事情”的能力。",5010,"company",{"title":690,"slug":691,"description":692,"category":676,"order":693,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄峥：段永平为什么高度评价他","person-huangzheng","段永平评价黄峥，核心不是“聪明”或“年轻”，而是黄峥关注事物本质、有很强学习能力，并且对什么是对的事情有清醒认识。",5020,"person",{"title":696,"slug":697,"description":698,"category":676,"order":699,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"泡泡玛特有定价权吗：段永平视角下的提价能力","company-pop-mart","泡泡玛特已出现新品进入更高价格带与差异化需求的定价权迹象，但同款产品持续提价的能力仍待验证。本文结合财报与产品变化作编者分析，区分价格、产品升级和IP热度。",5030,{"title":701,"slug":702,"description":703,"category":676,"order":704,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"王宁：段永平为什么欣赏泡泡玛特创始人","person-wangning","段永平欣赏王宁，核心在于王宁对商业的理解、长期努力、做对事情的意识、细节能力，以及带领团队把情绪价值产品做成全球品牌的能力。",5040,{"title":706,"slug":707,"description":708,"category":676,"order":709,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"贵州茅台：段永平为什么高度评价这家公司","company-maotai","段永平看重茅台，不只是因为它贵或知名，而是因为它有稀缺产品、强品牌、长需求周期和优秀现金流，同时也需要警惕多元化、假酒和渠道问题。",5050,{"title":711,"slug":712,"description":713,"category":676,"order":714,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"网易：段永平为什么长期评价这家公司","company-netease","网易是段永平投资体系里的经典案例：低价只是入口，真正支撑他长期持有的是游戏业务、现金、朴实团队和丁磊没有乱花钱的克制。",5060,{"title":716,"slug":717,"description":718,"category":676,"order":719,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"腾讯：段永平为什么认为它是长坡厚雪","company-tencent","段永平认可腾讯，是因为它有强大的社交关系、微信和微信支付带来的深远影响，以及不错的商业模式和企业文化；但他也承认自己对腾讯的理解不如苹果。",5070,{"title":721,"slug":722,"description":723,"category":676,"order":724,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"阿里巴巴：段永平为什么曾高度评价又保留","company-alibaba","段永平曾高度评价阿里和马云，核心是企业文化、使命感和长坡厚雪；但后来对业务复杂度、公司问题和再现辉煌的不确定性保留明显。",5080,{"title":726,"slug":727,"description":728,"category":676,"order":729,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"拼多多：段永平如何看这家公司","company-pinduoduo","段永平对拼多多的判断，起点是黄峥和团队：他认可人、学习能力和本分文化，但也一直把拼多多放在“仍需继续看懂商业模式”的框架里。",5090,{"title":731,"slug":732,"description":733,"category":676,"order":734,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"英伟达：段永平为什么说它厉害但难看懂","company-nvidia","段永平承认英伟达非常厉害，甚至称其“堪称芯片界的苹果”；但他真正保留的是长期护城河、算力需求持续性和自己能否看懂十年。",5100,{"title":736,"slug":737,"description":738,"category":676,"order":739,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"任天堂：段永平从中学到什么","company-nintendo","任天堂在段永平体系里更像早期经营经验的参照物：他从任天堂理解了游戏行业、渠道成本和单一产品模式，也借此形成了后来理解苹果、网易的框架。",5110,{"title":741,"slug":742,"description":743,"category":676,"order":744,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"GE：段永平为什么后来修正这笔投资","company-ge","GE 是段永平体系里的反面教材：他曾因企业文化和韦尔奇叙事认可 GE，但后来发现生意太复杂、文化理解不够扎实、多元化并非例外。",5120,{"title":746,"slug":747,"description":748,"category":676,"order":749,"type":688,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"新东方：段永平为什么既认可又保留","company-new-oriental","段永平认可新东方和俞敏洪的韧性，也认为新东方能做到今天很了不起；但他不太喜欢这类“力气活”生意模式，也难以找到愿意永远持有的感觉。",5130,{"title":751,"slug":752,"description":753,"category":676,"order":754,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"巴菲特：段永平为什么高度尊重他","person-buffett","段永平尊重巴菲特，不是因为“股神”光环，而是因为巴菲特把“买股票就是买公司”坚持到骨子里，并以朴实、谦虚、长期和理性的方式生活。",5200,{"title":756,"slug":757,"description":758,"category":676,"order":759,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"芒格：段永平为什么重视他的理性","person-munger","段永平重视芒格，核心在“理性”：芒格讲的 rationality，和段永平讲的平常心几乎是同一件事。",5210,{"title":761,"slug":762,"description":763,"category":676,"order":764,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"乔布斯：段永平为什么说他既是报时人也是造钟人","person-steve-jobs","段永平对乔布斯的评价，核心不是个人崇拜，而是乔布斯把“利润之上的追求”注入苹果文化，并留下了能继续运转的组织。",5220,{"title":766,"slug":767,"description":768,"category":676,"order":769,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"库克：段永平为什么认为他是更好的 CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":448,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":31,"date":9,"description":450,"editor":2483,"extension":2484,"meta":2485,"navigation":2486,"order":451,"path":2487,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2488,"seoDescription":450,"seoTitle":2489,"slug":449,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":843,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2490,"sourceStatus":2491,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2492,"stem":2493,"summary":450,"tags":2494,"type":435,"updatedAt":2499,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"__hash__":2500,"_collection":2501},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-04.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2473},"minimark",[821,826,830,836,839,845,848,858,861,866,872,875,878,883,890,906,909,914,917,920,924,929,932,939,942,951,954,957,962,965,968,973,976,981,984,987,990,995,999,1002,1007,1010,1017,1028,1031,1038,1043,1048,1051,1056,1066,1071,1078,1081,1086,1089,1094,1097,1106,1109,1114,1119,1122,1127,1136,1139,1142,1145,1148,1151,1156,1159,1162,1165,1168,1171,1174,1177,1180,1183,1188,1191,1194,1197,1206,1211,1214,1217,1220,1225,1231,1234,1244,1247,1252,1255,1263,1266,1271,1274,1279,1282,1285,1288,1291,1294,1299,1302,1307,1310,1315,1318,1321,1325,1328,1334,1337,1344,1350,1353,1358,1361,1367,1375,1380,1387,1392,1395,1398,1401,1406,1413,1421,1424,1429,1432,1435,1440,1443,1448,1451,1456,1459,1462,1467,1473,1478,1481,1484,1492,1495,1500,1503,1512,1521,1534,1544,1547,1564,1567,1576,1579,1584,1587,1596,1599,1604,1609,1612,1615,1620,1623,1628,1631,1634,1637,1642,1645,1650,1653,1658,1663,1666,1669,1674,1677,1680,1683,1692,1698,1703,1706,1711,1714,1719,1722,1727,1730,1735,1738,1743,1746,1751,1754,1759,1764,1767,1772,1775,1781,1787,1790,1793,1798,1803,1806,1809,1812,1817,1820,1825,1828,1833,1836,1839,1843,1846,1849,1854,1857,1862,1865,1870,1873,1878,1881,1891,1897,1900,1905,1908,1911,1914,1917,1931,1942,1945,1950,1953,1962,1965,1968,1973,1976,1979,1983,1986,1991,1994,1999,2002,2007,2010,2015,2018,2023,2026,2034,2037,2043,2048,2051,2056,2059,2062,2067,2072,2075,2080,2083,2088,2093,2096,2099,2104,2109,2120,2129,2134,2139,2142,2150,2153,2156,2164,2167,2170,2173,2178,2181,2186,2189,2192,2198,2201,2210,2213,2218,2221,2226,2229,2234,2239,2242,2248,2253,2258,2261,2264,2267,2273,2276,2282,2290,2296,2299,2302,2306,2309,2316,2323,2326,2331,2347,2356,2365,2374,2377,2382,2388,2394,2400,2405,2408,2413,2419,2426,2434,2437,2440,2443,2446,2454,2457,2463],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-先谈风险再谈回报","第一节 先谈风险再谈回报",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：身为价值投资的一只菜鸟，最近我在学习价值投资时有这么一个想法：一般来说，投资盈亏具有不确定性（在盈亏方面），也就是所谓的投资风险，很多人强调这点，而对于价值投资来说，价值投资者在其买入和持有某公司股票的时候，其心中主要是对其价值判断的确定性，他主观上是很确认其价值的，非常确认其价值是远远低估的。您觉得我这么想对吗？",[827,831,832],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平：价值投资的风险不该比开车出门大，投机的风险不会比去赌场小。最危险的可能是一知半解的那种：比如号称自己是价值投资者，也知道价值投资要拿长线的道理（知其然不知其所以然），结果买错股票又坚持长线持有的那种。（2011-03-01）",[827,837,838],{},"网友：银行最大的风险应该是政策风险吧……。先不谈风险，一个生意四年能回本了，能不能投？",[827,840,841,844],{},[833,842,843],{},"段永平"," ：先不谈风险的投资能叫投资么？（2012-07-19）",[827,846,847],{},"网友：今困惑卡拉曼所说投资衡量重要标准不是投资回报率，而是所承担风险的回报率。不知如何较好理解。",[827,849,850,853,854,857],{},[833,851,852],{},"段永平："," 长期看只有投资回报率。",[833,855,856],{},"短期看，有人会为了提高投资回报率而铤而走险，比如用margin。很多对冲基金是会用很高的margin的，所以摊上事儿的时候都是大事，所以大家对那些说今年回报有多高多高的基金的数字别太当真"," 。（2013-05-29）",[827,859,860],{},"网友：如何避免投资碰到黑天鹅事件？",[827,862,863,865],{},[833,864,852],{}," 黑天鹅事件在买的时候就应该避开了，不然你就不应该投资。价值投资者其实最喜欢看到黑天鹅事件的发生，这种时候往往会有机会。上一次金融危机无数人中招，但巴菲特那么大盘子，那些一掉到底不复回的股票他一个都没有就是一个例子，这可绝对不是运气哈。顺便说一句，那些股票我也一个都没有。",[827,867,868,869],{},"补充一点：",[833,870,871],{},"买的时候避开的意思就是不懂不做，事前想清楚。",[827,873,874],{},"去年有个朋友想投双汇，问我的看法。我说我不懂，你好像也不比我懂，但我觉得中国食品行业风险大，不知道啥时候就会出点啥问题，结果不幸而言中了。（2011-03-30）",[827,876,877],{},"网友：谢了！极少人做的东西才能赚钱，也是逆向思维。",[827,879,880,882],{},[833,881,843],{}," ：不是极少数人做，而是绝大多数做的人都中招了。（2010-07-04）",[827,884,885,886,889],{},"网友：A股发生了大动荡，现在多庆幸自己没融资，压力小多了。觉得上证50ETF够便宜了，卖了PUT，结果还是大跌，觉得价值值了，还是会跌很多，",[833,887,888],{},"真到了危机时刻，才会发现段总曾经说的东西是多么的珍贵"," 。",[827,891,892,894,895],{},[833,893,852],{}," ",[833,896,897,901,902,905],{},[898,899,28],"a",{"href":900},"\u002Fbashiqingzuodui","的能力只有在",[898,903,23],{"href":904},"\u002Fzuoduideshiqing","时才能让时间站在自己的一边，不然早晚会出事的。（2015-08-10）",[827,907,908],{},"网友：谢谢段总指教，不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西，实际上就是不冒风险，小心驶得万年船。",[827,910,911,913],{},[833,912,852],{}," 我也这么理解的。（2010-03-16）",[827,915,916],{},"网友：大道老师  想请教您 如何看待民间借贷 我父亲不炒股票 基本现在大部分钱给他认为靠谱的朋友借钱了 1.5分到2分的利息1000w一个月20w利息 但是我总感觉不稳",[827,918,919],{},"大道：一般来说很危险。（2026-09-29）",[822,921,923],{"id":922},"第二节-巴菲特的三不","第二节 巴菲特的三不",[827,925,926,928],{},[833,927,852],{}," 我问巴菲特一些其他问题时，他间接回答了这个问题。",[827,930,931],{},"我问巴菲特，在投资中不可以做的事情是什么，他告诉我说：不做空，不借钱，最重要的是不要做不懂的东西。",[827,933,934,935,938],{},"他说，",[833,936,937],{},"他只希望富一次，"," 如果借钱，可能会变成两次、三次富有了，然后又穷回去了。他这话的意思是要少犯错。",[827,940,941],{},"网友：在10年投资中您都犯过哪些错误？补了哪些弱项？感到最难的是什么？",[827,943,944,946,947,950],{},[833,945,852],{}," 这些年犯的错误就那几个：做了自己其实不懂的东西，借过钱，做过空。所有的错误都和这些有关。以后不会再做空和借钱，但可能还会有机会做以为自己懂了其实还是没搞懂的东西。所以犯错率大幅度下降了。最难的就是什么都不做。当手里有很多现金的时候就很容易理解为什么这么说。",[833,948,949],{},"巴菲特","说他最容易犯错的时候就是手里有很多现金的时候，我也是。（2010-03-06）",[827,952,953],{},"网友：想请教你两个问题：第一个是：巴老做不做空，如果他能比较肯定，他还是不做空么？",[827,955,956],{},"第二个是：你有没有对未来不确定的时候，或者说恐惧的时候，如果有，是怎么克服的？",[827,958,959,961],{},[833,960,852],{}," 1．老巴教我的：不做空、不借钱不做自己不懂的东西。这个在这里讲过n次了。",[827,963,964],{},"2．只有不懂的东西才会恐惧，不懂不做就没什么可怕的了。这个好像也讲过n次了吧？（2011-08-24）",[827,966,967],{},"网友：给大家概括一下咱们自己的价值投资（组合）应该持循的“企业文化”要素好不？",[827,969,970,972],{},[833,971,852],{}," 不做空、不margin、不做不懂的东西。（2010-04-06）",[827,974,975],{},"网友L：（借钱、做空、做不懂的）是投资失败的充分条件。其实，要做到不借钱和懂企业也是需要相当的时间（这是开始投资前的必要条件）。好消息是做自己能力圈里的喜欢的事，容易并乐在其中并往往有机会有闲钱，如果有闲钱的同时还喜欢投资（投资成功的必要条件），就有机会弄懂“好的生意模式、好的价格、好的管理人”，段大哥，我这样理解对吗？",[827,977,978,980],{},[833,979,852],{}," 借钱、做空、投机都是有诱惑的，未必一定会失败，所以也不是充分条件。看来充要条件的逻辑确实不好懂。（2013-03-30）",[827,982,983],{},"网友：大道您好！“不做空，不借钱，不懂不做”，为什么学习的时候觉得很懂了但我到实践中都是要交了学费才能真正懂呀。",[827,985,986],{},"大道：所以你肯定交了学费了，但是不是懂了则很难说哈。（2026-02-01）",[827,988,989],{},"网友：请教段总，芒格说“只要知道自己会死在哪里，然后就永远不去那个地方”，这话的普世哲理可以理解，但是运用到投资中，您认为他所指的主要是什么？",[827,991,992,994],{},[833,993,843],{}," ：比如：芒格知道做空会出大问题，所以就不做空。知道用margin会破产就不用margin。巴菲特说过，他有很多很厉害的朋友最后都破产了，原因就是因为用了margin，所以不能用margin等等。（2011-01-14）",[822,996,998],{"id":997},"第三节-不做空","第三节 不做空",[827,1000,1001],{},"网友：请问普通人是不是不适合做可以空可以涨的股指期货这类品种？我总是小赚大亏，最后亏损本金。",[827,1003,1004,1006],{},[833,1005,852],{}," 任何人都最好别做空。（2025-10-19）",[827,1008,1009],{},"大道：你不过跟大多数散户一样亏钱了而已。老巴说过，如果你在坑里的话，至少不要继续往下挖了？（2026-08-08）",[827,1011,1012,1013,1016],{},"网友：基于对价值的估计，在价格过高时做空算不算",[898,1014,58],{"href":1015},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","?",[827,1018,1019,1021,1022,1024,1025,1027],{},[833,1020,852],{}," 做空不是",[898,1023,58],{"href":1015},"，因为你经常需要面对市场的疯狂，最糟糕的是，你不知道市场到底有多疯狂，所以做空会睡不好觉的。总而言之，",[898,1026,58],{"href":1015},"就是那种能睡好觉的投资。(2011-05-22)",[827,1029,1030],{},"我不做空，不想跟自己过不去。做空一家公司需要了解的东西远比做多要难得多得多，而且一旦错了就可能是灾难性的。(2020-10-28)",[827,1032,1033,1034,1037],{},"网友：对于优秀公司的多头操作，理解度就基本等同于",[898,1035,101],{"href":1036},"\u002Fanquanbianji","，这个对我非常有启发，先谢谢大道．但我私下认为：对于劣质公司的空头操作，安全边际要包含更多的内容．",[827,1039,1040,1042],{},[833,1041,843],{}," ：做空是愚蠢的！（2013-03-04）",[827,1044,1045],{},[833,1046,1047],{},"我的教训：做空百度",[827,1049,1050],{},"网友：能否分享一下自己认为的最差的一次投资？",[827,1052,1053,1055],{},[833,1054,852],{}," 呵呵，亏钱的投资有好几次了，多数都可以原谅，但有一次属于极度愚蠢，就是跑去做空百度。之前投资表现非常好，有点飘飘然，真以为自己很厉害。开始还是想小玩玩，后来又不服输，最后被夹空而投降，所有账号加起来亏了很多钱，大概有1.5-2亿美元，其中有个账号到现在都翻不了身。",[827,1057,1058,1059,1062,1063,1065],{},"最可惜的是，这次错误把我们的现金储备全部消耗掉了，",[898,1060,115],{"href":1061},"\u002Fjihuichengben","巨大，不然这次金融危机我就可以帮大家赚更多钱了。而且最遗憾的是，这个错误是发生在",[833,1064,949],{},"叫我不要做空之后。现在知道什么叫不听老人言的后果了吧？值得欣慰的是，这三年总的表现还不错。真有点感谢金融危机给了我逆转的机会。",[827,1067,1068,1070],{},[833,1069,949],{},"的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！",[827,1072,1073,1074,1077],{},"不过，这其实不算我最差的投资，因为这根本就是彻头彻尾的",[898,1075,125],{"href":1076},"\u002Ftouji","。以后不会再有这种例子了。(2010-03-07)",[827,1079,1080],{},"网友：请问段总当时卖空百度的理由是什么？当时是怎么想的才做出这决定？从中我们应该学到什么？",[827,1082,1083,1085],{},[833,1084,852],{}," 首先，卖空行为是错的。当时确实看到了一些百度不对的东西，事实上百度后来也因为这个东西掉得很低（如果我能一直空到那时实际上可以赚大钱），但我也确实忽略了一些对百度有利的重要条件，比如政策环境等。总而言之，卖空行为是投机行为，吾不该为之。（2010-09-14）",[827,1087,1088],{},"网友：阿段..您真有做空过百度？",[827,1090,1091,1093],{},[833,1092,843],{}," ：你不相信我却在这里干什么？（2010-10-22）",[827,1095,1096],{},"网友B：大道当时为啥空百度呢",[827,1098,1099,1101,1102,1105],{},[833,1100,843],{}," ：当时不知道哪根神经起了主导作用，属于失去",[898,1103,18],{"href":1104},"\u002Fpingchangxin","的愚蠢行为。（2012-03-14）",[827,1107,1108],{},"网友：大道，你是不是可以反思下当年short百度的最致命原因是哪个？",[827,1110,1111,1113],{},[833,1112,843],{}," ：我早就不再做空了。（2012-03-26）",[827,1115,1116],{},[833,1117,1118],{},"别人的教训",[827,1120,1121],{},"网友：好像有个德国老头就是做空了大众而卧轨了去年我看到这“贵族老头”自杀的详细报道我都掉泪了。想起来了这个德国老头叫阿道夫·默克勒，还真是德国的富豪，做空大众就自杀了，一个成功的人以这样极端的方式了结生命，也是相当勇气。",[827,1123,1124,1126],{},[833,1125,843],{}," ：他要是明白老巴讲什么就不会到这个地步。（2010-04-01）",[827,1128,1129,1131,1132,1135],{},[833,1130,843],{}," ：确实是非常危险的。不该做空的理由：做空时不光要面对",[898,1133,110],{"href":1134},"\u002Fjibenmian","，还要面对市场的疯狂。任何人都可能会犯错，但做空犯错可能会会对无限风险，看看前几年做空大众汽车的那个案例就明白了。（2012-06-26）",[827,1137,1138],{},"我有个邻居(没那么熟)，是专门做做空生意的(我搞不懂怎么做哈)。前段时间突然问我是否知道“跟谁学”这家公司，说好几个做空公司在做空它，因为它做假账，理由是他们的成长太快了。我真的让我们教育电子的同事去了解了一下，得出的结论是：它的成长在这个环境下看不出任何明显不符合逻辑的地方。于是我告诫邻居，中国很大，这点营业额的成长比例其实不是不可能的。",[827,1140,1141],{},"那时候股价好像是在30-40之间。前两三个礼拜打球又碰到邻居，问起他是否还空着呢？他说是的，他们的成长太不可思议了，肯定是做假账。我看了一眼股价，那天80左右。",[827,1143,1144],{},"我完全不了解跟谁学这家公司，这里我想说的是：最好别做空哈！这个世界有很多你不懂的事情，为什么要跟自己过不去？",[827,1146,1147],{},"我其实就是想告诉那些和我的邻居有同样想法的人们，做空是很危险的，时间很可能不站在你这边。我看到这家公司从30多涨到130多的时候，我真的有点替邻居担心哈，我觉得他恐怕很难睡好觉，何苦呢？!",[827,1149,1150],{},"不喜欢的公司避开就好了，千万不要去做空，因为看错一次会让你难受很久甚至一辈子的，尤其是那些已经有钱的人们。没人希望自己需要富两次的。(2020-08-11)",[827,1152,1153],{},[833,1154,1155],{},"巴菲特与芒格怎么说",[827,1157,1158],{},"巴菲特：“查理和我对做空都不陌生，我们两个都失败了。”芒格对做空则表示：“我们不喜欢以痛苦地交易来换金钱。”（2013年）",[827,1160,1161],{},"查理和我过去在上百只股票上有过做空的想法，如果我们实施了，我们可能已经变成了穷光蛋。泡沫的演化基于人性，没有人知道什么时候它会破裂，或在破裂之前它会膨胀到多大。（2002年）",[827,1163,1164],{},"这是个有趣的值得探讨的问题，许多人被做空毁灭，做空会让你破产。",[827,1166,1167],{},"你会看到许多股票的价格远远超过其内在价值，股价是内在价值5-10倍的现象很普遍，但很少看到股价是内在价值10-20%的情况。所以，你可能认为做空很容易，但实际上不是。",[827,1169,1170],{},"股票之所以常常价格高估，是因为背后有推动的力量。他们常常可以利用高估的股价来提升价值。例如，股票内在价值为10美元，但交易价格是100美元，他们可能会把内在价值提升到50美元，然后，华尔街会说：“看，我们创造了价值！”这个游戏会继续下去，在这个游戏终结之前，作为做空者，你可能已经把钱耗光了。",[827,1172,1173],{},"长期做多更容易赚钱，你不可能通过做空赚大钱，因为巨大损失的风险意味着你不能下重注。我们会永不做空，因为我们太大了。",[827,1175,1176],{},"芒格：做空并看着推动者把股价拉升是非常刺激的，但不值得去体验这种刺激。不做空、不融资，想死就变得较难了。（2001年）",[827,1178,1179],{},"段永平：点评芒格主义 “It’s dangerous to short stocks.” （做空行为是很危险的）",[827,1181,1182],{},"“Being short and seeing a promoter take the stock up is very irritating. It’s not worth it to have that much irritation in your life.”（坐在空头位置，又看到股价遇到利好大涨，这是一件特别让人气愤的事情。人生苦短，遭受这种气愤太不值当了。）",[827,1184,1185,1187],{},[833,1186,843],{}," ：这大概是芒格年轻时的体会，很不幸我也体会过了。（2012-06-26）",[827,1189,1190],{},"“It would be one of the most irritating experiences in the world to do a lot of work to uncover a fraud and then at have it go from X to 3X and and have the crooks happily partying with your money while you’re meeting margin calls.Why would you want to go within hailing distance of that？”",[827,1192,1193],{},"译文：（51）世界上最郁闷的事情之一，就是你费尽力气发现了一个骗局（并且做空这个公司），但是眼睁睁地看着股价继续疯涨三倍，而且这些骗子们拿着你的钱弹冠相庆，而且你还要收到证券行的保证金追加通知。像这种郁闷的事情你哪能去碰呢？",[827,1195,1196],{},"网友：巴菲特说：“查理和我对做空都不陌生，我们两个都失败了。”芒格谈做空则表示：“我们不喜欢以痛苦地交易来换金钱。”我想问段大哥的是：做空为什么会失败和做空为什么会痛苦？",[827,1198,1199,1201,1202,1205],{},[833,1200,843],{}," ：",[833,1203,1204],{},"我不想解释，反正说了也没用。人们不吃点亏是没法明白的哈。","（2013-11-07）",[827,1207,1208],{},[833,1209,1210],{},"做空改变不了公司的价值",[827,1212,1213],{},"引用：《对冲基金巨头：做空特斯拉是职业生涯最大失误之一》2014年06月12日",[827,1215,1216],{},"特斯拉堪称美股中最受争议的牛股之一，让无数投资者又爱又恨，对冲基金Kase Capital的创始人Whitney Tilson近日就表示，做空特斯拉是他整个职业生涯中最大的败笔……，Tilson还表示，他目前的投资组合中多空比是2：1，不过最近他更偏向空一些。他称“我并不是看空，我是谨慎。”",[827,1218,1219],{},"Tilson是Kase Capital的掌门人，是格雷厄姆与巴菲特倡导的价值投资的忠实信徒。",[827,1221,1222],{},[833,1223,1224],{},"段永平：总的来讲，苍蝇不叮无缝的蛋，虽然也有误伤的时候。不是很明白被唱空的公司为什么都那么火急火燎地马上反击。也有人做空老巴的BRK，老巴的反应很简单：空头根本改变不了一家公司的价值，只有某种情况下会有例外，比如公司的融资和股价有关时，股价大掉会有危险。但是，这种危险实际上也是由融资来的，和空头其实无关。",[827,1226,1227,1230],{},[833,1228,1229],{},"比如，在金融危机的大环境下，某些不够健康的银行就有可能会成为空头袭击的牺牲品。自从取消mark to the market，连这种情况都不太会见到了。好公司根本就不怕人做空！"," （2011-11-23）",[827,1232,1233],{},"网友：（问如何看待泡泡玛特被做空、空单比例高）",[827,1235,1236,1237,1240,1241,1243],{},"大道：这个世界上根本就没有什么恶意做空或者是恶意做多！如果有哪家公司会因为被人做空而出现麻烦的话，那他本来就有麻烦。请记住，每个公司的真正的买家就只有一个，就是公司自己，就是公司最后的",[898,1238,88],{"href":1239},"\u002Fxianjinliu","或者是未来的",[898,1242,88],{"href":1239},"。",[827,1245,1246],{},"我知道很多人看不懂这条，因为事实上买公司的表面上确实不完全是公司自己啊。但你想想5年10年15年20年……人们为什么会买这家公司？其实不就是因为这家公司能赚到的钱么？如果没人买，一家很赚钱的公司就没有价值了吗，那这家公司最后的钱会用来干什么？（2026-05-08）",[827,1248,1249],{},[833,1250,1251],{},"给想做空的人的回复",[827,1253,1254],{},"网友：如果腾讯涨到200港元以上，您经过调研又发现腾讯的游戏业务增长接近极限。您会考虑融券卖空腾讯的股份吗？巴菲特好像做空过美元吧？",[827,1256,1257,1201,1259,1262],{},[833,1258,843],{},[833,1260,1261],{},"我以后不会做空任何股票"," 。我不觉得腾讯到200块就贵的离谱，做空要小心。为什么要找这种让自己睡不好觉的事干呢？巴菲特也许其实是想对冲他的美元资产。对他做空美金的事我没搞懂，总觉得他不应该做。他可能是好玩吧？（2010-03-29）",[827,1264,1265],{},"网友：“做空有无限风险，一次错误就可能致命”文章是这么写，其实没那么可怕。",[827,1267,1268,1270],{},[833,1269,843],{}," ：呵呵，我以前也那么认为来着（2010-03-31）",[827,1272,1273],{},"网友：雅虎要跌吗？感觉没人能挽救雅虎了．如果这些传说中的收购都是浮云的话，是不是可以空一把？",[827,1275,1276,1278],{},[833,1277,843],{}," ：任何时候，只要你还想着要空一把谁，那就表示你还是个投机分子（以为自己比市场聪明）。早点收起做空头的念头吧，老老实实去找那些可以让你睡得好觉的deal！",[827,1280,1281],{},"不过，投机是件非常好玩的事情，就像偶尔去下赌场一样，如果你做好输钱的准备的话（赌点小钱？）",[827,1283,1284],{},"我们老中好像天生好赌，真有很多人是到赌场去赌身家的，让人难以理解。",[827,1286,1287],{},"顺便讲个赌场小故事：n年前，我们还处在VCD的年代的时候，有一年拉斯维加斯CES期间，酒店赌场里见到很多同行朋友在贵宾厅玩。经常看到小铲子一铲就是几万美金，一晚上下来怎么着都是几十万美金的出入了。我那时想，这帮哥们可真是喜欢刺激啊。过了两天，当我回中国时，在机场居然发现这帮哥们居然坐的是华航经停台北的经济舱。我那时就想，这帮哥们这是想不开啊。",[827,1289,1290],{},"不过据说那次以后，这班哥们开始不那么亏待自己了，起码也搞个商务舱吧。（2011-10-29）",[827,1292,1293],{},"网友：做空挺累，入市以来唯一挣钱的是苹果，老乔逝世后，从350涨到了560，涨了60%但我整个盘子现在只盈利8%，盈利都被做空侵蚀了。从A股过来的人，总是免不了要经历这一阶段，小孩玩火，越禁忌越玩。烧痛了手，也就罢手了。",[827,1295,1296,1298],{},[833,1297,843],{}," ：老调重弹：不做空、不margin，不做不懂的东西。什么时候明白都不晚，不过真的明白恐怕都是在付出大代价之后。（2012-03-14）",[827,1300,1301],{},"网友：我手上空头COVEREDBOUGHT BACK SOME YHOO",[827,1303,1304,1306],{},[833,1305,843],{}," ：长期而言，靠做空成功的人极少，这么难的路还是不走的好。",[827,1308,1309],{},"网友：我今天只是Covered一些空头，我手上只有空头&Cash，明天看看Market可能去买一些，不急慢慢来买，因为Margin Call的l还没出手...",[827,1311,1312,1314],{},[833,1313,843],{}," ：希望你有一天能理解老巴为什么讲不要做空时，你的投资就会再进一步。（2010-05-22）",[827,1316,1317],{},"网友：阿段，你好，请问一下，你计划长期持有泡泡玛特，那你是否会允许一小部份持股被借出做空以收取借券费呀？可以回答吗？",[827,1319,1320],{},"大道：我是很欢迎有人接我股票做空的，所以从来不限制。（2026-09-11）",[822,1322,1324],{"id":1323},"第四节-不借钱不用margin","第四节 不借钱、不用margin",[827,1326,1327],{},"如果你懂投资，你不需要用杠杆，因为你早晚会变富的。如果你不懂投资，你更不应该用杠杆，不然裸奔的将可能会是你。投资是件快乐的事情，用杠杆会让你有机会睡不好觉的。(2020-12-06)",[827,1329,1330,1331,1333],{},"用margin的人都不傻，但用margin是会上瘾的，直到掉坑里为止。其实还是",[833,1332,949],{},"说得好，如果你懂投资，你不需要用margin，因为你早晚会富有的。(2024-09-03)",[827,1335,1336],{},"网友：前段时间也一直想用margin，后来想想连段哥这样能量的人都吃亏了就不敢用了。仔细琢磨琢磨觉得margin的风险的确很大。如果融资失败了，消耗本金的速度会很快，不容易翻身；如果融资成功了，会把胆子练肥，为下一次掉进更大的坑里埋下“习惯”的伏笔。",[827,1338,1339,1201,1341],{},[833,1340,843],{},[833,1342,1343],{},"如果你懂，你不该用margin，因为你不需要他也终究会赚钱，如果你不懂，更不应该用margin，因为早晚会因此亏大钱的。",[827,1345,1346,1349],{},[833,1347,1348],{},"不过，人们总是在吃了大亏以后才会真明白的"," 。（2013-03-22）",[827,1351,1352],{},"网友：假设这个借款期限可以拉长到8年或者10年，年利率还是6.2%，您觉得这样的借款去投资是否可行。",[827,1354,1355,1357],{},[833,1356,852],{}," ［吃惊］从此开始睡不好觉，可能少活10%，而且是有经验的后面那10%，那得少赚好多钱哈。",[827,1359,1360],{},"如果你懂投资的话，你不需要借钱，因为你早晚会有钱的，着什么急？如果你不懂投资的话，你千万别借钱。那你到底是想懂还是不想懂啊？（2013-01-17）",[827,1362,1363,1366],{},[833,1364,1365],{},"段永平：最好的办法是不用杠杆，不然早晚会成无臂壮士了"," 。（2012-09-02）",[827,1368,1369,1201,1371,1374],{},[833,1370,843],{},[833,1372,1373],{},"用margin就必须要“风控”，希望短期炒一把赚点快钱也必须要“风控”。老老实实买自己看得懂的好企业，想着10年都不卖的人是没道理用margin的，不然赚的钱都变成利息给人了。"," （2015-07-09）",[827,1376,1377],{},[833,1378,1379],{},"margin 是什么，和一般的借钱有什么不同",[827,1381,1382,1383,1386],{},"网友：您之前说过：如果你懂投资，那么你不需要加杠杆；如果你不懂投资，那么你更不需要加杠杆。年轻人往往处在需要钱（买房买车，付彩礼，养孩子）又没钱（刚出社会，没有积累）的阶段，所以年轻人可以在好公司股价特别便宜（例如前段时间",[833,1384,1385],{},"茅台","1400左右）的时候通过银行贷款来投资吗？",[827,1388,1389,1391],{},[833,1390,852],{}," 我的意思是：“如果你懂投资，你不需要加杠杆，因为你早晚会赚到钱的；如果你不懂投资，那么你更不应该加杠杆，因为杠杆早晚会让你破产的。”这里杠杆指的是margin，就是在证券行用自己的股票抵押的贷款。经常看见有人因为自己年轻又不懂投资，所以想学点更容易迅速亏钱的办法，这个逻辑很有意思。（2025-06-17）",[827,1393,1394],{},"网友：我也用了margin，不过我场外有足够的钱能补足目前的债务部分。",[827,1396,1397],{},"大道：场外有钱且变现没问题的其实不算margin。margin指的是你用股票抵押借的钱，而且只有这个账号里的股票可以用来还债的那种。（2026-05-27）",[827,1399,1400],{},"网友：做生意可以贷款，为什么不建议借钱买股票？",[827,1402,1403,1405],{},[833,1404,852],{}," 借钱做生意一般而言是有还款期的，而且借款人对要做的生意一般了解度高，但也还是有很多人因为借钱做生意而陷入一生的麻烦。",[827,1407,1408,1409,1412],{},"借钱做股票是用你的其他股票抵押的，完全由经纪人(broker)控制，但市场大跌时他们会随时要求你卖股票还钱。股票市场有时会疯狂到无法想象，用margin的人一生也许只需要碰上一次市场向下的疯狂就可能会损失惨重(wiped out)。",[833,1410,1411],{},"芒格","这么聪明的人就曾经(20世纪70年代)因为margin而陷入大麻烦。",[827,1414,1415,1417,1418,1420],{},[833,1416,949],{},"厉害的地方是其投资生涯中从来就没有过致命的大麻烦。",[833,1419,949],{},"讲过，即使只有1%的破产机会你也不应该干。懂投资的人不需要用margin，不懂投资的人更不应该用margin。(2011-09-08)",[827,1422,1423],{},"有件事情很有意思：你可能拥有一家价值100亿美元的公司，而这家公司可能连1亿美元都借不到。但是，由于公司是上市公司，公司的大股东凭着手里的小纸片（股票）做担保却能借到好几十亿美元。但是如果公司不是上市的，它可能连那些大股东能借到的20分之一的钱都借不到。",[827,1425,1426],{},[833,1427,1428],{},"为什么危险：随时被平仓，而人只需要富一次",[827,1430,1431],{},"网友：多谢提醒！具有“天时地利人和”的条件，只是胜算的把握大些罢了。",[827,1433,1434],{},"我们要做赢的把握大的事情，但不是做百分之百可以赢的事情，世间没有百分之百可以赢的投资。人无完人嘛，公司也一样。估计理解这个道理的人，在今后的投资里就不会再有该不该借钱的疑问了。",[827,1436,1437,1439],{},[833,1438,852],{}," 是的，用margin是危险的，有机会富两次。（2013-03-29）",[827,1441,1442],{},"网友：巴菲特说过“人生只需富一次”。我觉得，对于人来说，如您所说的一样，记住不借钱就对了；但如果是对于公司来说，应该可以借适当的钱。",[827,1444,1445,1447],{},[833,1446,852],{}," 是的，rich once的说法非常经典。我们公司也不太借钱的。（2010-03-18）",[827,1449,1450],{},"网友：段总，能否具体解释一下一生只富一次的含义，富了之后不再冒大的风险能理解，如果在没有富之前，是不是可以大胆一些，比如遇到好机会借钱投入。是否可以这样理解？",[827,1452,1453,1455],{},[833,1454,843],{}," ：就是不应该冒冒不起的风险。和富没富起来前后没关系。如果没富起来前出问题了你打算赖账？（2011-10-18）",[827,1457,1458],{},"网友：巴老文章里关于BETA的华盛顿邮报案例说，“我从来都不明白，为什么以4千万来购买一个价值4亿元的资产，风险会比用8千万购买来的高。”非常认同。困惑的是，当我遇到这样的机会时，万一它还跌到了2千万，此时我是否可以采用margin？",[827,1460,1461],{},"请教段老师，巴老的警言“No Margin”，是属于道德规范还是技术范畴的？",[827,1463,1464,1466],{},[833,1465,852],{}," No margin是安全范畴。出来混总是要还的，用margin赚的钱大多最后都还回去了。要命的是很多人还得时候连本都没留住。（2010-04-03）",[827,1468,1469,1470,1472],{},"网友：2023年时等了大半年",[833,1471,1385],{},"就是不跌，忍不住1600元时用手上的钱都买了。最近倒是一路跌下来了，可是没有余钱加仓了，好想借钱抄底啊。",[827,1474,1475,1477],{},[833,1476,852],{}," 我们不知道市场会有多疯狂，也不知道事情可能会坏到什么程度。",[827,1479,1480],{},"不要用margin是投资的基本要求！我们一直说的是10年20年，但你用margin可能会让你在那之前就陷入困境，没必要。(2024-09-18)",[827,1482,1483],{},"网友：想问段总一个问题，就是关于借钱投资的问题，如果发现一个很好的投资标的的时候，是否应该去借钱投资？段总以前说过不要借钱去投资，我也觉得很有道理。但是如果不借钱投资，机会可能就会失去了，所谓的时光不等人。所以有的时候还是感觉在借不借钱投资上比较迷惘。",[827,1485,1486,1201,1488,1491],{},[833,1487,843],{},[833,1489,1490],{},"反正你借不借钱一生当中都会失去无穷机会的，但借钱可能会让你再也没机会了"," 。（2010-04-09）",[827,1493,1494],{},"网友：我非常认同不用margin．只是我到现在还是不太明白Soros的玩法。他一直是大尺寸的margin。就我的认识而言Soros一定是价值投资。更多的是价值观的层面上。",[827,1496,1497,1499],{},[833,1498,843],{}," ：我没关心过Soros怎么做，但我可以肯定的是，用margin的人老的快，投资总年头短，整个投资生命周期里赚钱少很多。（2011-09-08）",[827,1501,1502],{},"问：您认为融资风险非常大，在资本市场用融资这个手段，在可持续发展上会遇到很大问题？",[827,1504,1505,1507,1508,1511],{},[833,1506,852],{}," 对，因为",[833,1509,1510],{},"你从事的是很长期的事业，但是用到融资就变成短期的投机了，"," 一旦价格影响，就会导致你出现巨大的亏损，这样就不合算了。本来找对了目标却用了错误的方法，最后可能赔钱。（2006-07-07）",[827,1513,1514,1517,1518],{},[833,1515,1516],{},"比如","茅台，",[833,1519,1520],{},"过去30年里不管你在酒前酒后、左侧右侧买，10年后看都是好投资，但用margin买的还是有可能要裸奔的。所以，不懂不碰，不用margin就是不为清单。(2020-10-11)",[827,1522,1523,1524,1527,1528,1527,1530,1533],{},"网友：如果20年前融资买的是",[833,1525,1526],{},"苹果","、",[833,1529,1385],{},[833,1531,1532],{},"腾讯","这些好公司，好像也没问题。但加杠杆的人总是喜欢乱买。",[827,1535,1536,894,1538,1540,1541,1543],{},[833,1537,852],{},[833,1539,1526],{},"在过去二十年里，从高点下降40%或以上就有至少10次，10-20%更是不计其数，要是用margin买了",[833,1542,1526],{},"，就算不破产，大概率也已经吓破胆了？(2023-12-19)",[827,1545,1546],{},"网友：相信您在买入很多企业后也会出现一段时间内的股价大跌，请问您最惨时亏损了多少？是如何做心理安慰的？",[827,1548,1549,1551,1552,1554,1555,1557,1558,1560,1561,1563],{},[833,1550,852],{}," 你如果买的是好公司，没用margin，那你的公司大掉时你应该是高兴的。我买了",[833,1553,1526],{},"后，",[833,1556,1526],{},"从最高点掉下来超过40%的好像就有好几次，20%-30%的就多了去了(我没认真看过，也不在意)。任何一个公司的真正买家就只有它自己，",[833,1559,1526],{},"掉了的时候，哪怕我没钱再多买，我也是高兴的，因为",[833,1562,1526],{},"这么赚钱，公司一定会继续买的。",[827,1565,1566],{},"如果你不太小心地买了家烂公司，安慰自己的办法大概就是不停地对自己说：以后再也不赌了，再也不赌了，再也不赌了。于是从此可以打败90%以上的“投资人”了。",[827,1568,1569,1570,1572,1573,1575],{},"我们拿着",[833,1571,1526],{},"拿着",[833,1574,1385],{},"这么多年，老是有人在旁边一直说：你好难啊！我难吗？!难在哪里了？什么事情比这个更容易呢？",[827,1577,1578],{},"拿着好公司比爬山这种东西要简单甚至容易很多，如果你能确定拿着的是“好公司”的话。如果你不知道拿着的是不是好公司，那你坚持什么？爬山这种事情对很多人是需要坚持的。拿着好公司的时候为什么会有要坚持的感觉？是因为你不喜欢吗？",[827,1580,1581],{},[833,1582,1583],{},"用过杠杆的人后来怎么样了",[827,1585,1586],{},"网友：要拥有像芒格那样的心理素质，确实不容易，可能还是要在对于企业本身的关注上下功夫……",[827,1588,1589,1591,1592,1595],{},[833,1590,843],{}," ：投资要心理素质干什么？又不是玩命。",[833,1593,1594],{},"芒格也许真的心理素质好，传说曾经因为用margin两年内亏掉大部分身价（大概70年代的时候）。所以有了只需要富一次的说法。芒格大概可以算富过一次半的人了"," 。（2010-07-09）",[827,1597,1598],{},"网友s：是不是真的？芒格的传记中没有这一段，也从没听他提到过这件事。",[827,1600,1601,1603],{},[833,1602,852],{}," 只知道芒格管理的合伙基金73年亏31.9%，74年又31.5%，两年亏损超过一半，把一个最大的投资人吓跑了。史玉柱是少有的富过两次的人，富了第一次后胆大包天，富了第二次之后变得胆小如鼠（他的原话）。",[827,1605,1606],{},[833,1607,1608],{},"简而言之，太enjoy百分比有时候是危险的，有一天你有可能会去因为追求这个百分比而失去平常心。另外，很多对冲基金的短期百分比（10年以内）也是不真实的，因为他们往往会用margin。",[827,1610,1611],{},"顺便给大家讲个用margin的小故事：我有个朋友，对投资很在行，15岁来到美国，几万块钱起家，20多年里在股市上最高时赚到过20多亿美金，但2008年那次亏掉了大概90%，09、10年大逆转，11年大概又亏掉70%。所有大起大落的最大的罪魁祸首实际上就是margin！",[827,1613,1614],{},"有意思的是，我所有对不能用margin的道理最早都是他告诉我的，比如巴菲特怎么说margin，芒格怎么说margin等等。我个人觉得他之所以老是忍不住用margin的原因实际上是内心对百分比追求造成的。投资实际上是谋事在人成事在天，看重短期百分比是危险的。（2011-12-02）",[827,1616,1617,1619],{},[833,1618,843],{}," ：我有个朋友两万块起家赚到20亿美金但始终觉得自己像个穷人，因为总是用着200%的margin。据说现在好了，不再用margin了。不过margin有点像毒瘾，戒掉不容易。（2015-02-28）",[827,1621,1622],{},"网友i：冒昧问句：您这朋友多大年纪，做投资多少年了？他这是一直用MARGIN就没断过吧，不然他怎么可能将2万块翻了10万倍，才能赚到20亿美金啊！这时间肯定不会短，居然一直没被清出场，做MARGIN到这步也算幸运了！",[827,1624,1625,1627],{},[833,1626,843],{}," ：他做了30年，非常有天赋，非常看基本面，非常努力，绝不轻易出手，有过好多次经典的投资，也有过几次死里逃生的经历。08\u002F09年那次在崩盘前一天汗流浃背地挥泪斩仓也是极端经典的，晚一天就彻底回到解放前了。即便如此，他已经富过超过一次了。人的行为有时候确实不容易理解。现在他的日子开心多了，颇有放下屠刀，立地成佛的感觉。（2015-03-05）",[827,1629,1630],{},"长期资本(Long-Term Capital Management)就是个很好的例子。那些人都极度聪明，两个诺贝尔经济学奖获得者加一群特别“厉害的人”，而且还赌上了自己的身家。(2024-09-01)",[827,1632,1633],{},"钟达奇： @董宝珍先生的否极泰基金9月底净值已经公布了，净值0.4704，8月30日至今的一个月下跌了34.85%，而此期间贵州茅台股价下跌幅度为20.57%，简单计算杠杆率约为1.7，基本是券商融资限度的极致。耳旁响起那句话，不要借钱！",[827,1635,1636],{},"——-来自雪球",[827,1638,1639,1641],{},[833,1640,852],{}," 包括自己在内，人都有愚蠢的时候。看到别人的错误后会引以为戒的人们犯蠢的机会会大大降低！用margin就是件错事。做对的事情最重要，然后才是如何把事情做对。（2013-09-28）",[827,1643,1644],{},"网友：虽然裸奔的宝珍离李录最近，感觉他对用杠杆的理解还是有问题，芒格说有百分之百的确定性就可以用杠杆，结果他其他文章发表说茅台用杠杆对的，3倍PE的民生用杠杆对的。理性、平常心的修炼是不容易的！",[827,1646,1647,1649],{},[833,1648,843],{}," ：都裸奔了还是不明白杠杆的坏处，这也真是执着的人哈。（2018-08-17）",[827,1651,1652],{},"网友：真是不吃亏记不牢，去年10月份时我融资买兴业银行时段总就教导过：“人们愿意做错的事情的原因是因为错的事情往往有诱惑。如果你这次赌对了，那将会更惨烈地倒在下一个错的事情上。”",[827,1654,1655,1657],{},[833,1656,843],{}," ：估计他以前肯定在上面赚过便宜哈，这次只是还债而已。（2013-09-30）",[827,1659,1660],{},[833,1661,1662],{},"借钱买房与炒房",[827,1664,1665],{},"用杠杆炒房和用margin没有本质差别，但问题来的时候要更惨，因为房子的流通性一定会差些。(2013-10-09)",[827,1667,1668],{},"网友l：房价下跌没人会逼你平仓。",[827,1670,1671,1673],{},[833,1672,843],{}," ：这个是关键！（2013-09-29）",[827,1675,1676],{},"网友d：我觉得话应该分两头说。",[827,1678,1679],{},"首先银行一般不会在房价下跌的时候让你补差额（即所谓的平仓），因为如果银行这么做会引起更大的恐慌情绪，这样一来银行手头上的所有房贷都更加危险。",[827,1681,1682],{},"另一方面，由于这是个公开的秘密，大多数人都知道这个逻辑，因此这个逻辑所带来的实际好处被大大削弱，甚至消失。当房价涨的时候，人们很高兴的算计着自己由于杠杆化的缘故而账面上赚了不少钱，因此很容易增加日常消费或者增加其他类型的投资，当房价下跌的时候，人们选择相信银行不可能让自己补差额，当大家都这样做的时候也许始料不及的麻烦就出现了。",[827,1684,1685,1686,1688,1689,1691],{},"麻烦不一定出现在银行让业主补差额这件事情上，麻烦可能出现在人们的其他投资项目上，也可能表现为人们失去工作等等。麻烦带来的直接结果就是减少人们的",[898,1687,88],{"href":1239},"（无论投资失利还是失业还是之前消费过度），当人们的",[898,1690,88],{"href":1239},"不足以还按揭款项以及利息时，银行就不得不逼人们平仓了。",[827,1693,1694,1695,1697],{},"所以，",[898,1696,88],{"href":1239},"就是一切的底线。",[827,1699,1700,1702],{},[833,1701,843],{}," ：如果你有栋房子，每年租金纯收入为10万且没有其他任何任何支出，这个时候如果你借10万块，告诉别人一年以后还，这种类型的借钱我觉得可以接受。（2013-10-01）",[827,1704,1705],{},"网友：段总好！借钱（银行贷款）买房与借钱买股票是不是一个道理？",[827,1707,1708,1710],{},[833,1709,843],{}," ：不一样。多数人是在有未来支付能力的情况下买房的。不过，借钱炒房和炒股票是一样的，结局一般也相同。（2014-09）",[827,1712,1713],{},"网友：今天跟一个朋友聊天，他今年炒房亏了大半身家，我问他是不是很不爽呀，他说：我20多年前来深圳只有1000块钱，现在我有老婆儿子，还有个赚钱的企业，除了这1000以外的钱，我认为我赚了几千倍了。我没啥不满足的。这个心态确实好。其实相对几十年前，大多数人都应该满足。",[827,1715,1716,1718],{},[833,1717,843],{}," ：希望这是他的真实心态。我见过一些人碰到同样的情况，说的是同样的话，但头发却突然白了许多。",[827,1720,1721],{},"不用margin，不碰不懂的东西也许就能真有这种心态了。（2011-11-19）",[827,1723,1724],{},[833,1725,1726],{},"例外与边界",[827,1728,1729],{},"网友：老巴说：“不像大部分的公司，柏克夏并不会为了一些特定的短期资金需求而去融资，反而，我们借钱是认为在一定时期内（约略短于融资期限）将有许多好的投资机会出现。最佳的投资机会大多是出现在市场银根最紧的时候，那时候你一定希望拥有庞大的火力。”记得师兄说过是不借钱的，老巴会去借钱吗？特别是在有好机会的情况下，该不该借钱？",[827,1731,1732,1734],{},[833,1733,852],{}," 这个要特别小心，老巴借的钱借期可达15到20年，不用抵押，利息极低，中间不需要还。作为有能力的人，这种钱还是可以借一点的。（2013-02-19）",[827,1736,1737],{},"网友：段总想问您个问题啊，巴菲特说过不要借钱买股票，可您曾经说过如果已经满仓的股票继续大跌，您就会再去借些钱再买入，您是不是跟巴菲特的做法不一样了呢？",[827,1739,1740,1742],{},[833,1741,843],{}," ：我有这么说过，我一直的观点都是满仓的情况下就和我无关了。借钱是危险的，没人知道市场到底有多疯狂（向下或向上）。（2010-03-16）",[827,1744,1745],{},"网友N：在某次访谈中，你那时候说网易还掉的话，你就会再借点钱或融资去买，可惜他没有再掉下来了。呵呵。",[827,1747,1748,1750],{},[833,1749,843],{}," ：呵呵，好像是说过一次类似的话。当时心里想的借钱大概是有抵押的借钱吧。巴菲特说的不借钱主要指的的是不用融券的方式借钱，否则市场一大掉就麻烦了。如果有人不太明白，那记住不借钱就对了。（2010-03-16）",[827,1752,1753],{},"网友：老巴教导，投资不用margin，不借款，而大道当时投资网易的时候，是有借款的。当时是怎么考虑的？是越跌越买，买到后来没有钱了，又借的？还是别的原因？",[827,1755,1756,1758],{},[833,1757,843],{}," ：我当时的借款只是为了图方便，需要时可以马上调钱还的。（2011-11-16）",[827,1760,1761],{},[833,1762,1763],{},"忍不住的人",[827,1765,1766],{},"网友：做了个很大的决定，申请融资融券账户了！段大哥一直说不要借钱，还是忍不住啊！",[827,1768,1769,1771],{},[833,1770,852],{}," 从此你会有个激动人心的生活！（2012-08-10）",[827,1773,1774],{},"网友：我是一个职业投资者，我很喜欢老巴的投资理念，也知道老巴说过的三不原则，请问我长期低杠杠投资比方说0.3倍以内，融资成本六个点，在股指偏低位建仓，国内融资盘大概要跌七成才会爆仓，再假设每年我平均投资收益2 0%，这种低杠杠长线价值投资策略可以吗？",[827,1776,1777,1780],{},[833,1778,1779],{},"段永平：勿以恶小而为之"," 。（2019-05-20）",[827,1782,1783,1784,1786],{},"网友：大道，最近",[833,1785,1385],{},"跌得厉害，我已经没有钱加仓了，我今天去开了融资账户。我想在这个价位少配一点资感觉风险不大，但又违背您不加杠杆的教诲，真的好纠结啊。",[827,1788,1789],{},"大道：用margin其实蛮好玩的。大概就像拿着一把能装100发子弹的左轮手枪，但你知道里面只有一颗子弹。每天开盘时朝自己脑门扣一下扳机，大部分时候都可能没事的，但真的很刺激哈。（2026-05-26）",[827,1791,1792],{},"网友：感觉很惭愧，这些道理都是从十几年前就看熟了的，能背的，竟然还会时不时“不小心”动了用margin的念头，好在没有真的去做。",[827,1794,1795,1797],{},[833,1796,852],{}," 你值得惭愧一下。理解赚慢钱不容易，但理解复利更难。慢钱在复利的影响下，效果是非常厉害的。(2024-09-04)",[827,1799,1800,1802],{},[833,1801,852],{}," 40年复利15%=268倍，就已经很了不起了。40年20%=1469倍。有些对冲基金有些年头回报好的原因往往和他们用margin有关，所以不能单纯比业绩的。当然连着比40年自然合理。不过，我是业余投资者，没那么多时间去看企业，所以不参加任何比赛哈，just for fun.（2012-06-24）",[827,1804,1805],{},"网友：经常有些股票明显很贵，像巴菲特说的，股价是内在价值的5-10倍，偶尔想是不是可以做空。",[827,1807,1808],{},"想想巴菲特和段总的话，就放弃这个念头，但是借钱的想法经常都有，当然主要是想加快赚钱的速度，比如比较小比例的借贷如20%，（当然知道这是不对的，如段总说的，如果你懂投资，你不需要借钱，如果你不懂投资，你不应该借钱）巴菲特还说：“毫无疑问，有些人通过借钱投资成为巨富，但此类操作同样可能使你一贫如洗。",[827,1810,1811],{},"杠杆操作成功的时候，你的收益成倍放大，配偶觉得你很聪明，邻居也艳羡不已。但它会使人上瘾，一旦你从中获益，就很难回到谨慎行事的老路上去。”知道这些道理，但做起来还是会有点纠结。",[827,1813,1814,1816],{},[833,1815,843],{}," ：想办法吃个一两次大亏后大概就没机会再纠结了？（2015-01-19）",[827,1818,1819],{},"网友：段总不断的提醒！今天，A股暴跌8%，融资的应该损失不少！1月16日证监会规定不得向证券资产低于50万元的客户进行融资融券。",[827,1821,1822,1824],{},[833,1823,843],{}," ：很多人是可以不管熊市还是牛市都让自己难受的。（2015-01-21）",[827,1826,1827],{},"网友：如何能快速入睡是一个大大的课题。如能解决失眠的问题，是对人类的一大贡献啊。",[827,1829,1830,1832],{},[833,1831,843],{}," ：对有些人而言，不用margin会容易入睡很多哈。（2015-07-04）",[827,1834,1835],{},"网友：大道老师，如果是小资金，在研究了商业模式和企业文化后，以准备长期持有的预设去选股，但卖出的时间点是需要资金用于生活所需，排除被短期的市场波动影响。如何看待这种做法呢？",[827,1837,1838],{},"大道：只要不用margin，长期来说应该也是可以的。（2026-09-19）",[822,1840,1842],{"id":1841},"第五节-不买高负债的公司","第五节 不买高负债的公司",[827,1844,1845],{},"网友：留意到伯克希尔公司的资产负债率这几年在55%-60%间，属于负债率不算高的企业。大部分实实在在的企业视行业性质也是有一定的负债率的。一个房地产公司或者一个人按揭买房子，也是天经地义的借钱，只要不要超过太高的杠杆。为什么常常听到“不要借钱炒股”这种说法？也留意到段老师上篇博客（购买GE）里忍住不采用margin工具。",[827,1847,1848],{},"请问段老师，这和上述例子的一定杠杆的使用，在哲学上有什么原则性的不同？困惑ing。",[827,1850,1851,1853],{},[833,1852,843],{}," ：借钱和margin是有区别的。用margin就是融券，如果碰上大跌随时可能会被平仓。（2010-03-30）",[827,1855,1856],{},"网友：如果投了一个负债率很高的企业，属于使用margin吗？",[827,1858,1859,1861],{},[833,1860,852],{}," 似乎不属于直接用margin，不会导致你需要富两次。但是，我是不太喜欢买负债率高的企业的，除非我能特别懂。(2016-11-12)",[827,1863,1864],{},"网友：想请教一下段总如何看到企业举债的问题，觉得现在社会竞争太过于激烈，如果不借钱，光靠自身积累，可能会错失行业发展的机会，如果借钱，可能会有驾驭不住的危险。另外，感觉企业成长一定阶段以后，银行，企业，就在一条船上，可能明知道企业有危险，银行还是会投钱（为了收获前期投入的钱），有点像经济中的泡沫，明明知道是泡沫还的维持，直到泡沫最终破裂，不知道理解对不对。",[827,1866,1867,1869],{},[833,1868,852],{}," 如果没把握还的钱还是不要借的好。（2010-06-10）",[827,1871,1872],{},"网友补充：大家可以想想借钱的好处和坏处：好处是如果一帆风顺的话会发展得快点；坏处1：增加经营成本，容易去赚不该赚的钱；2：经常在10年、8年中会有经济危机或者企业本身的经营困难，从而出现债权人要把钱收回去，资金周转出问题；貌似相当比例死掉的企业都是倒在这两点上。",[827,1874,1875],{},[833,1876,1877],{},"巴菲特（1990年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东的信）：",[827,1879,1880],{},"“我们被告知，大量的债务会让经营管理者比以往更加努力专注，就像在汽车的方向盘上装上一把匕首会让驾驶员异常小心的驾驶。我们承认，这种让人集中注意力的方式会造就一个非常警惕的驾驶员。但另外一个肯定的后果则是，一旦汽车碰上即使是最小的小坑或者一点冰，将导致一场致命而且不必要的事故。（2012-01-12）",[827,1882,1883,1884,1886,1887,1890],{},"网友：看了一下",[833,1885,1385],{},"和",[833,1888,1889],{},"万科","的年报，两家公司的盈利居然相差无几，而市值几乎相差一半，如果有钱买下整家公司的话，你会选择谁呢？",[827,1892,1893,1896],{},[833,1894,1895],{},"段永平：你借过钱不？"," （2014-03-23）",[827,1898,1899],{},"网友：段大哥别笑话我，没有看懂“你借过钱不”是想说明什么？",[827,1901,1902,1904],{},[833,1903,852],{}," 慢慢看就懂了。（2014-03-23）",[827,1906,1907],{},"网友：万科没倒的时候网上还好多人晒长期拿万科的收益呢",[827,1909,1910],{},"大道：我是买过万科的，但很多年前就不再碰了。这不是巧合！理解生意很重要的。（2026-08-29）",[827,1912,1913],{},"网友：记得当时你还说过万科负债挺高的，还举了一个美国房地产起死回生的例子，万科负责人好像说他们想发展快一点啥的，大家都这样，然后就然后……",[827,1915,1916],{},"大道：是的，我看不懂他们的债务和体外循环。不懂不碰就好。（2026-08-30）",[827,1918,1919,1920,1923,1924,1886,1927,1930],{},"网友：我有个一直困扰我很久的问题想请教您：“绿城中国”目前市值110亿，2018年财报显示现金及等价物490亿，流动资产2800亿，总",[898,1921,64],{"href":1922},"\u002Ffuzhai","2500亿，即使现在清算也有300亿的价值，收入每年提高，缺点是年利润11亿有下滑（2017年26亿利润），另外绿城品质和口碑一直不错，为什么股价一直很低，我清楚这个标的肯定长期不如",[833,1925,1926],{},"贵州茅台",[833,1928,1929],{},"中国平安","，但就是不明白什么原因导致价格持续走低，请赐教。",[827,1932,1933,1935,1936,1780],{},[833,1934,852],{}," 我也不明白，",[833,1937,1938,1939,1941],{},"但我也不会买这种高",[898,1940,64],{"href":1922},"的公司",[827,1943,1944],{},"网友：实业经营应该用杠杆吗？",[827,1946,1947,1949],{},[833,1948,852],{}," 你问下那些房地产公司？本来他们已经在过好日子的，但他们想快一点？我记得十多年前我劝一个做房地产的朋友。我说你们的债务太高了，能减就赶紧减下来吧。人家说，我们这个行业都这样，很多人债务比他还高。我说，如果别人跳楼你也觉得大家可以一起跳吗？那时好像是2011\u002F2012年。那时他要听懂了，现在就不至于消失了哈。(2024-10-19)",[827,1951,1952],{},"大概7-8年前，有个做地产的校友来找我聊天。当时问我有啥建议，我说不要借钱，不然将来早晚会有麻烦的。估计他现在肯定蛮后悔当时没听我的吧？常在河边走，没有不为清单早晚会湿鞋的。(2021-09-22)",[827,1954,1955,1956,1958,1959,1961],{},"网友：想起好多年前大道对房地产企业的评价，高",[898,1957,64],{"href":1922},"、高杠杆，祝他们好运。当时很多人还颇为不忿的辩解说这是行业特征，大家都这样，不值得大惊小怪。现在看来违反了基本规律的，没什么能够避免最终结局。对很多常规意义上不会破产的企业，相对投资者来说是会破产的，资产重组、",[898,1960,64],{"href":1922},"化股等，对投资者来说可能都类似破产。",[827,1963,1964],{},"大道：哈，2012年的时候有个还算蛮有名的房地产商来“讨教”，我跟他说，你们债务太高了。他说，我们这个行业都这样，我的算低的了。我说出事的时候，有人从三十楼跳下来，你觉得你从十五楼跳下来会更安全吗？（大致意思）。他现在大概率不行了，不知道会不会后悔当年没听我的。那个时候如果他想救自己是来得及的。逻辑真是个好东西啊。（2025-12-04）",[827,1966,1967],{},"网友：大道对孙宏斌认可吗？",[827,1969,1970,1972],{},[833,1971,852],{}," 我跟用很多杠杆的人绝对不是一路的。",[827,1974,1975],{},"网友：大道你好！请教你一个问题。现在A股房地产公司股票都是估值极低。巴菲特说在别人恐惧的时候我贪婪。现在买入优质的房地产公司龙头，以5—10年的时间看。是巴菲特说的捡烟蒂，还是算价值投资呢？",[827,1977,1978],{},"大道：你看下债务？（2026-09-20）",[822,1980,1982],{"id":1981},"第六节-不懂不碰","第六节 不懂不碰",[827,1984,1985],{},"网友：我每次买股票都感觉自己是在做风险很大的事情，怎么才能做风险小的事情呢？",[827,1987,1988,1990],{},[833,1989,852],{}," 不懂不做风险就小（2010-04-14）",[827,1992,1993],{},"网友：我目前的渠道只能投资A，B股和港股。07年开始做的，成绩还可以（小赚一把）。但是因为不懂行业，很难赚大钱。或者说水平很难提高。对技术天生不感兴趣，当然也不是一窍不通。目前好想进步，不知如何下手。你看我的情况，是不是能给我些建议？",[827,1995,1996,1998],{},[833,1997,852],{}," 不懂就不碰。我也有很多东西不懂，好像没什么办法，但好像也不妨碍出成绩。（2010-04-28）",[827,2000,2001],{},"网友：对我来说炒股票最难的就是理解一个企业是如何赚钱的，我没做过企业，对财务也是一知半解，觉得什么企业都能赚钱，又觉得什么企业都可能会死翘翘，如何才能在股市里赚到钱呢？真是伤脑筋啊",[827,2003,2004,2006],{},[833,2005,852],{}," 不能理解的情况下最好不要买股票，不然很容易亏钱的。（2010-05-24）",[827,2008,2009],{},"网友：请教大道：一名入市（A股）没多久的小散投资国内市场应该做哪些功课呢？需要哪些基本功？投资思路？",[827,2011,2012,2014],{},[833,2013,852],{}," 不做不懂的东西（2012-05-18）",[827,2016,2017],{},"网友：您说买股票就是买公司，但是了解一个公司挺难的，中信证券等大券商也会踩雷，这是否就涉及能力圈问题，只投资能搞清楚的，模式简单的生意？",[827,2019,2020,2022],{},[833,2021,852],{}," 对的，不懂不碰。（2019-09-20）",[827,2024,2025],{},"网友：前段时间那个东南融通，顶级投行做的ipo，四大审计的，居然资产表的现金都可能是假的。虽然自己没撞到，但心真是凉了，有点不敢出门了，有什么招法可以避开这种地雷啊？",[827,2027,2028,1201,2030,2033],{},[833,2029,843],{},[833,2031,2032],{},"不做自己不懂的东西！如果你觉得自己到最后确实没有什么企业能搞懂，就什么都不碰，那你的投资表现就可以在全世界排在前10-15%。不过如果你非要买自己不懂的东西，至少早晚可以得到些教训，也许对你人生是好事。"," （2011-09-21）",[827,2035,2036],{},"网友：不到两周的时间，很多讲故事的公司已经跌去50%以上的幅度了……借钱做不懂的，就如同开车加速去撞墙……（2015-06-26）",[827,2038,2039,2042],{},[833,2040,2041],{},"段永平：买自己不懂的东西是为什么85%的人可以在牛市熊市都亏钱的原因"," 。没有比因为股票涨了很多而买入更荒唐的理由了。（2015-06-26）",[827,2044,2045],{},[833,2046,2047],{},"需要问别人，就是不懂",[827,2049,2050],{},"网友：感觉投资最后的风险只有一个，就是：“以为自己懂了，但其实还没真正懂”。请问大道：如何避免这种风险？：",[827,2052,2053,2055],{},[833,2054,852],{}," 看看老巴怎么做的就会明白这种风险实际很小，关键在不懂就是不碰的原则。多数人错在一知半解时由于害怕失去机会而急急忙忙出手了。",[827,2057,2058],{},"补充一下：每个人看看自己犯错的比率，再看看老巴犯错的比率就明白差别在哪里了。（2011-12-01）",[827,2060,2061],{},"网友G：段总的意思是不是相信就可以买（价格合理的时候）？社会经验比较少，段总见谅。",[827,2063,2064,2066],{},[833,2065,852],{}," 东问西问就是不相信的意思，你这种状态还是不要碰股票的好。（2011-05-14）",[827,2068,2069,2071],{},[833,2070,852],{}," 今天在网上看到有人说跟着我买阿里，说这话的人都是投机分子！自己不懂的东西千万别跟着别人投，拉人壮胆也是没用的哈，不管这人是谁。反过来也一样，自己懂的东西不怕别人不喜欢，哪怕那人是老巴或芒格也没关系。（2014-09-23）",[827,2073,2074],{},"网友：段总好：您认为推特的价值是否被低估了？",[827,2076,2077,2079],{},[833,2078,852],{}," 如果需要问别人的股票你最好别碰。（2014-09-24）",[827,2081,2082],{},"网友：段总好！理想和小鹏，全仓买，各买50%，您觉得这个策略可行吗？……还望您能指点一二。",[827,2084,2085,2087],{},[833,2086,852],{}," 当你需要别人指点你买的票的时候，你自己多数是在赌吧？（2020-10-13）",[827,2089,2090,2092],{},[833,2091,852],{}," 人人怎么这么快就跌破发行价了？最近老有人问我人人，让我觉得有泡沫的感觉很强。还有人告诉我买了人人的股票，现在要开始做价值投资者了，希望他们能睡好觉。我不了解人人，也没机会用过人人。",[827,2094,2095],{},"我发现问我关于人人的人也都是完全不了解人人的人，难道不碰自己不懂的东西真有那么难？",[827,2097,2098],{},"网友：请教您一下就是我自己本身不懂银行股，不过李驰一直推荐银行股，我很相信他，现在有个问题，就是如果我相信李驰的话，可不可以跟他一样买银行股呢？",[827,2100,2101,2103],{},[833,2102,852],{}," 那你到底是相信呢还是不相信？",[827,2105,2106,2108],{},[833,2107,852],{}," 所以不懂的东西不要碰。",[827,2110,2111,2112,2115,2116,2119],{},"网友：据我分析，紫金矿业这家公司，首先",[898,2113,70],{"href":2114},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","不是最理想的——通过低价并购扩大规模；但他有开发低品质矿的丰富经验，他的净资产收益率还不错，在20%以上，每年净收益都在增加；他的",[898,2117,135],{"href":2118},"\u002Fqiyewenhua","也比较好，从陈景河公开的报告和演讲来看，他是务实的领导。",[827,2121,2122,2123,2125,2128],{},"网友：紫金矿业目前的价格比较低，市盈率只有14，自由",[898,2124,88],{"href":1239},[898,2126,97],{"href":2127},"\u002Fzhexian","应该有30块，目前股价22。您觉得这样分析是否合适？",[827,2130,2131,2133],{},[833,2132,852],{}," 当你还需要问别人的时候就说明你还不懂这家公司的生意。我也看不懂这家公司的生意，不知道未来会是什么样子。（2025-09-03）",[827,2135,2136],{},[833,2137,2138],{},"抄作业与听专家",[827,2140,2141],{},"网友：大道觉得什么时候可以抄作业呢？还是小仓位玩玩纯属为了跟踪一下？",[827,2143,2144,2146,2147,2149],{},[833,2145,852],{}," 我只偶尔抄一下",[833,2148,949],{},"的作业，纯属好玩。不完全懂是不应该赌身家的。不敢赌身家的“投资”其实都很难算得上正经“投资”。(2023-03-12)",[827,2151,2152],{},"如果不懂，作业是抄不了的。如果懂了，不需要抄。投资非常简单，就是买生意。搞懂投资唯一的办法就是搞懂生意。当然，对搞不懂生意的人们理财是另外一个办法，比如买标普500指数或者QQQ这类指数。买基金其实比买公司还难，因为看懂一个公司比看懂某个人要容易很多，而且基金还要收费。(2024-08-08)",[827,2154,2155],{},"网友：您的投资公司名字可以透露吗？想跟踪它的13-F。",[827,2157,2158,2160,2161,2163],{},[833,2159,852],{}," 直接问买啥可以马上赚大钱岂不是更简单？知道别人投什么对不懂公司的人来说不会有啥帮助的。有时间还是看看",[833,2162,949],{},"1998年在佛罗里达的演讲吧，有视频的。(2024-06-08)",[827,2165,2166],{},"网友：段老师，晚上睡不着，我就在想，我为啥不直接抄你的作业呢我肯定没您聪明，我先买，买了再说等我搞明白了，不知道猴年马月了，我感觉再不买可能都错过了机会。我先买，买完了我慢慢学，您买我就买，您卖我就卖，我才32岁，我一个月一个人，房贷2500，车贷...",[827,2168,2169],{},"大道：如果你完全不懂的话，抄作业也是很难的，而且可能也很痛苦。很多无脑抄作业的是希望买了以后马上涨的，不然也会睡不着。（2026-08-29）",[827,2171,2172],{},"网友：投资中超出自己的领域时，求助专家建议也许不是最坏的打算？",[827,2174,2175,2177],{},[833,2176,852],{}," “砖家”建议你也敢听？超出领域时最好别碰，除非你能搞懂。当你不懂时，专家帮不了忙。专家只能提供参考意见，你要是不懂还是无法决策的。(2010-04-18)",[827,2179,2180],{},"专家可以在细节上帮很多忙，但不能帮你决策。(2010-04-19)",[827,2182,2183],{},[833,2184,2185],{},"新股、传闻与睡不着觉",[827,2187,2188],{},"网友：请教段总对刚上市的新股一些看法。听说巴菲特一般不买新股（这是不是巴菲特的原意我不知道），原因可能是新股没有多少历史业绩可以考察，或是刚上市的新股有部分做账好看，调节利润什么的。",[827,2190,2191],{},"您一般买新股吗，一般要有多久历史业绩，你才会买它的股票，还是等公司上市一年半载后，看看它经营的情况再做决定呢。",[827,2193,2194,2197],{},[833,2195,2196],{},"段永平：投资的基本原则就是不懂不投！"," 投不投和是不是新股没关系，但新股往往没办法搞懂。（2011-03-02）",[827,2199,2200],{},"网友：看看这个传闻“奇虎360今晚美国上市据传巴菲特参与认购”，可笑得很。老巴说过：十几年过去了，未见价值投资者增加。看来人性如此啊。",[827,2202,2203,2205,2206,2209],{},[833,2204,852],{}," 呵呵，",[833,2207,2208],{},"那条消息出来后有记者发email问我有没有可能，我认为100%不可能。巴菲特是非常有原则的人，不会投一个他不了解的公司的。"," （2011-03-31）",[827,2211,2212],{},"网友：作为一个新入门投资者，如果从现在2025年9月开始做10年期以上投资，请问什么方向或者公司，能做到年化10%以上的收益呢？",[827,2214,2215,2217],{},[833,2216,852],{}," 这和开口要钱没啥区别哈，自己搞不懂的投资是很难赚到钱的。（2025-09-09）",[827,2219,2220],{},"网友：好想买能安心睡觉的公司，a股这样的机会不多。",[827,2222,2223,2225],{},[833,2224,852],{}," 能不能安心睡觉在买以前就决定了。（2011-03-29）",[827,2227,2228],{},"网友：请教段总一个问题，如果一项投资，目前价格也可以，不买怕价格涨上去，失去机会。买了怕价格掉下来，失去更好的机会。是不是应先买一部分，再留一部分后备资金。",[827,2230,2231,2233],{},[833,2232,852],{}," 买了怕价格掉下来的投资最好离的远远的。如果你买啥都怕掉下来就远离股市。（2013-06-18）",[827,2235,2236],{},[833,2237,2238],{},"我也有大量看不懂的",[827,2240,2241],{},"我只是侥幸看懂了几个我刚好懂得的好企业而已。绝大部分我也是看不懂的，和绝大多数人一样。不过我看不懂就不碰了，很多人做不到还想赚快钱。当然，我也是很想赚快钱的，但知其不可为而已。(2024-06-17）",[827,2243,2244,2245,2247],{},"网友：大家都知道",[833,2246,949],{},"不做科技股，那不符合他的理念。但科技股反而成就了您，您怎样衡量这种反差？",[827,2249,2250,2252],{},[833,2251,852],{}," 我只是做我认为我能懂的东西(以为自己懂也不一定就真懂了)，有些可能也许正好是大家说的所谓科技股吧。我分不清什么是科技股。(2010-05-30)",[827,2254,2255],{},[833,2256,2257],{},"看得懂什么不重要。好像现在的中国首富是能看懂饮料的人，也许下一个是个能看懂猪饲料的人。",[827,2259,2260],{},"另外，我从来不认为自己介入过互联网或高科技什么的。互联网或所谓的高科技都只是工具而已，就像当年的铁路、公路、高速公路、航空等等一样。(2010-10-22)",[827,2262,2263],{},"你懂得，所以才是你的好生意。(2010-10-23)",[827,2265,2266],{},"网友：Jin is an excellent ceo.大道选将和选股一样厉害！ congrats!",[827,2268,2269,2272],{},[833,2270,2271],{},"段永平：我选股不厉害，是业余级的，花的功夫太少。但我犯错的机会的确是大师级的，不懂就是不碰。"," 真看得懂这两句话的人日子长了一定会有不错的赚头哈。（2011-11-03）",[827,2274,2275],{},"网友：刚才看了中国企业家的一篇文章，写去奥马哈的中国企业家在大会结束后凑在一起讨论巴菲特的场景，包括你和赵炳贤、赵丹阳等十几人，看文章的感觉有几个人对巴菲特的理解都很表面，可能都比不上你的英语老师，为什么做企业比较成功的人无法理解“不懂不做”的思想？",[827,2277,2278,2281],{},[833,2279,2280],{},"段永平：其实做企业能长期成功的人应该都是懂“不懂不做”的，不然达尔文会有意见。"," 但是，懂的人不一定说的清楚。有时即使大家在说同样的东西，但是用不同语言，从不同角度，还会有一些争论。（2010-05-22）",[827,2283,2284,2286,2287,2289],{},[833,2285,843],{}," ：难道不应该是一样的吗？！任何时候，",[898,2288,23],{"href":904},"都应该摆在第一位，就投资而言，想不明白5年10年的公司最好不要碰哈。（2015-06-27）",[827,2291,2292,2293,2295],{},"“市场就像上帝一样，帮助那些自己帮助自己的人，但与上帝不一样的地方是，他不会原谅那些不知道自己在做什么的人。”(",[833,2294,949],{},")",[827,2297,2298],{},"网友：如果生意不好，即使看懂了也不能碰吧",[827,2300,2301],{},"大道：你的理解能力有点奇葩了吧？不懂不碰里面没有懂了就要碰的意思啊，烂生意你懂了就站的远远的就好。（2026-09-02）",[822,2303,2305],{"id":2304},"第七节-我犯过的错与不为清单","第七节 我犯过的错与不为清单",[827,2307,2308],{},"网友：随着投资经验的增加，你和以前比进步在哪些方面？",[827,2310,2311,894,2313],{},[833,2312,852],{},[833,2314,2315],{},"呵呵，心态好很多，不怕失去机会，最重要的是不犯大错。(2010-03-18)",[827,2317,2318,894,2320],{},[833,2319,852],{},[833,2321,2322],{},"其实我最大的财富就是我犯过的这些错误，巴菲特也是。(2010-05-05)",[827,2324,2325],{},"网友：芒格说那一段经历对他帮助非常大，这个怎么看？",[827,2327,2328,2330],{},[833,2329,852],{}," 当然。我也是从自己的错误中学到的东西最多。（2010-03-29）",[827,2332,2333,2334,2337,2338,2340,2341,2343,2344,2346],{},"网友：看",[833,2335,2336],{},"伯克希尔","2002年的年报，",[833,2339,949],{},"说：“在投资股票时，我们预期每一笔投资都会成功，在我们经营",[833,2342,2336],{},"的38年中，投资获利的个案和投资亏损的个案比例约为100:1。”这才是",[833,2345,949],{},"真正牛的地方啊！厉害在几乎不犯错。",[827,2348,2349,2351,2352,2355],{},[833,2350,852],{}," 呵呵，你说到关键了。",[833,2353,2354],{},"高手和其他选手的差别就在错误率低而不是能打出多少好球来。"," (2011-09-07)",[827,2357,2358,2359,2361,2362,2364],{},"好的",[898,2360,58],{"href":1015},"者并不是那些没有犯过错误的人。好的",[898,2363,58],{"href":1015},"者的最典型特征是从很多年的历史来看，犯错误(尤其是大错)的概率很低。常胜将军的意思是赢的比例高而已，百战百胜则是神话。(2011-12-19)",[827,2366,2367,2368,2370,2371,2373],{},"经营企业和投资一样，少犯错很重要。但所谓少犯错不是通过什么都不敢做实现的，那叫裹足不前。少犯错要通过坚持",[898,2369,23],{"href":904},"来实现。而所谓坚持",[898,2372,23],{"href":904},"是发现是错的事情就马上停止，不管多大的代价都会是最小的代价。不为清单也很重要。(2020-10-14)",[827,2375,2376],{},"网友：呵，还是没有做到像巴菲特说的非常了解，投资应该是宁愿不做也不能犯错，什么都不做才是最困难的事情呢！",[827,2378,2379,2381],{},[833,2380,843],{}," ：说得很对，我的火候还很不够啊。（2010-03-23）",[827,2383,2384,2385,2387],{},"你只要一直本着不懂不做，你就会少犯错误，时间长了你的结果自然比你不懂也做要好很多，这是要",[898,2386,23],{"href":904},"的范畴。",[827,2389,2390,2391,2393],{},"如何搞懂是如何",[898,2392,28],{"href":900},"的范畴，如果实在是搞不懂，就什么都别碰，把钱存银行，表现可能比大部分人强。(2022-02-18)",[827,2395,2396,2397,2399],{},"在",[898,2398,28],{"href":900},"的过程中，错误是不可避免的，是个学习的过程。每个人都有自己的学习曲线。(2020-12-13)",[827,2401,2402],{},[833,2403,2404],{},"我犯过的那几个错",[827,2406,2407],{},"网友：请问在你的投资过程中，都犯过哪些错误呢？你是怎样发现，并纠正的呢？谢谢！",[827,2409,2410,2412],{},[833,2411,843],{}," ：前面说过一些了，这里补充一个没说过的。去年买过一只etf，叫UNG，是和天然气挂钩的指数。我买的时候天然气的价格只有3块左右，而天然气的长期成本要大约6块以上。我认为没什么东西价格可以长期在成本价以下，就跑去买了一大堆UNG。后来经过认真研究，发现UNG并不能和天然气线性相关，而且时间损耗还很大，就觉得自己错了。",[827,2414,2415,2416,889],{},"但还有点不舍得卖，",[833,2417,2418],{},"因为已经亏钱了。再后来想起知错就改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价的原则，最后还是下决心亏钱了结了",[827,2420,2421,2422,2425],{},"呵呵，这单我管的所有账号加起来亏了超过xx万，但如果当时没下决心卖的话，到目前为止要多亏大概接近4倍原来的亏损。而天然气现在的价格比我买UNG时要高50%。",[833,2423,2424],{},"这个错误主要是因为对投资标的的了解不够就下手了"," （当时整体获利情况很好，手里有很多现金）。以后一定不能大意啊。（2010-03-22）",[827,2427,2428,2430,2431,2433],{},[833,2429,852],{}," 快餐那个还不算，因为那个我投的钱非常少，虽然大家有提那个，那个很少的，那个总共的投资才一百多万美金嘛，对于我这种投资规模来讲，一百多万美金，你说亏也好赚也好，根本就没有特别大的影响，包括我举这个例子也是比较典型的，当时我买的时候，这家公司每股一年的",[898,2432,88],{"href":1239},"都有一块钱，它股价才一块多钱，这样说的话，我怎么买它只要两年时间把本钱赚回来了。",[827,2435,2436],{},"但是这家公司，第一，就想多扩张，就多开一些店，结果多开了店，花了钱又赚不到钱，也没有营业额；第二，它又给自己的食品涨价，最后一下就不行了。",[827,2438,2439],{},"教训也谈不上，就是看错了，对它了解不够深，就跳进去了。这里面给我的教训其实不算特别大，我当时也只是试一试，因为我主要是想去做他们的董事，看看美国的上市公司它是怎么运作的。我觉得每一家公司，你要真的把它彻底搞懂并不是件容易的事情。有时候经常看起来似是而非，你觉得懂了，实际上有些东西还没有搞懂。",[827,2441,2442],{},"就是说我们叫做we do not know what we do not know，就是我们不知道我们不知道什么，以为自己知道了，其实呢还不知道，所以等到发现的时候已经有点晚了。（2010-03-22）",[827,2444,2445],{},"网友：您能谈谈亏损的经历吗？大家都很想知道您投资失败的案例。",[827,2447,2448,2450,2451,2453],{},[833,2449,843],{}," ：我买过一只航空股，叫FRNT，亏了很多钱（之前有过一只航空股赚过很多钱）。这家公司",[898,2452,88],{"href":1239},"很好，就是有点太小，结果08年被信用卡公司突然要全额现金（因为有4家别的小航空公司突然破产）。当时如果CEO想办法给对方现金的话（当时可以卖些飞机和其他资产的），其实也能过关。",[827,2455,2456],{},"结果这个CEO突然宣布进破产法庭，最后该给人的钱还是给了，把公司真搞破产了。当时买这家公司时，主要是觉得石油太贵了，一定会掉下了。石油一掉，航空公司最先受益。结果都对了，油也确实掉下来了，这家公司也确实后来赚了很多钱，但我们却亏掉了。",[827,2458,2459,2462],{},[833,2460,2461],{},"我这里犯的还是做了自己其实不明白的事。"," 比较遗憾的是，之前巴菲特已经告诉我小心航空公司。这家公司破产后我真正想通了巴菲特是什么意思。所以以后不会再轻易碰航空公司了。（2010-03-27）",[827,2464,2465,2466,2472],{},"我投资中的不为清单(StopDoing List)很简单，就是不懂不碰。懂主要集中在两个方面：",[833,2467,2468,1886,2470],{},[898,2469,70],{"href":2114},[898,2471,135],{"href":2118},"。(2020-10-10)",{"title":2474,"searchDepth":21,"depth":21,"links":2475},"",[2476,2477,2478,2479,2480,2481,2482],{"id":824,"depth":21,"text":825},{"id":922,"depth":21,"text":923},{"id":997,"depth":21,"text":998},{"id":1323,"depth":21,"text":1324},{"id":1841,"depth":21,"text":1842},{"id":1981,"depth":21,"text":1982},{"id":2304,"depth":21,"text":2305},"寻长坡以滚雪球","md",{},true,"\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-04",{"title":448,"description":450},"段永平问答：风险第一：不做空、不借钱、不懂不碰｜段永平投资问答录","本章按主题重排已收集的公开问答，保留正文中的提问者、引文署名与发言日期；尚未逐条核对原始发布链接。本站编辑日期不代表原始发言日期。","unverified",[],"dao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-04",[2495,2496,2497,2498],"投资原则","风险控制","不做空","不加杠杆","2026-10-10","oKfudxxbKEBTJHi4VuiAc5dB-QzXmOzBUvY3f0hUIyY","dao",[2503,2504,2505,2506,2507,2508,2509,2510,2511,2512,2513,2514,2515,2516,2517,2518,2519,2520,2521,2522,2523,2524,2525,2526,2527,2528,2529,2530,2531,2532,2533,2534,2535,2536,2537,2538,2539,2540,2541,2542,2543,2544,2545,2546,2547,2548,2549],{"title":431,"slug":432,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":16,"order":434},{"title":438,"slug":439,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":21,"order":441},{"title":443,"slug":444,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":26,"order":446},{"title":448,"slug":449,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":31,"order":451},{"title":453,"slug":454,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":36,"order":456},{"title":458,"slug":459,"type":435,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"chapterOrder":41,"order":461},{"title":463,"slug":464,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":16,"order":466},{"title":469,"slug":470,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":21,"order":472},{"title":474,"slug":475,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":26,"order":477},{"title":479,"slug":480,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":31,"order":482},{"title":484,"slug":485,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":36,"order":487},{"title":135,"slug":489,"type":435,"volume":467,"volumeOrder":21,"chapterOrder":41,"order":491},{"title":493,"slug":494,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":16,"order":496},{"title":499,"slug":500,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":21,"order":502},{"title":504,"slug":505,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":26,"order":507},{"title":509,"slug":510,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":31,"order":512},{"title":514,"slug":515,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":36,"order":517},{"title":519,"slug":520,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":41,"order":522},{"title":524,"slug":525,"type":435,"volume":497,"volumeOrder":26,"chapterOrder":51,"order":527},{"title":529,"slug":530,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":16,"order":532},{"title":535,"slug":536,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":21,"order":538},{"title":540,"slug":541,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":26,"order":543},{"title":545,"slug":546,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":31,"order":548},{"title":550,"slug":551,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":36,"order":553},{"title":555,"slug":556,"type":435,"volume":533,"volumeOrder":31,"chapterOrder":41,"order":558},{"title":560,"slug":561,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":16,"order":563},{"title":566,"slug":567,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":21,"order":569},{"title":571,"slug":572,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":26,"order":574},{"title":576,"slug":577,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":31,"order":579},{"title":581,"slug":582,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":36,"order":584},{"title":586,"slug":587,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":41,"order":589},{"title":591,"slug":592,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":51,"order":594},{"title":596,"slug":597,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":56,"order":599},{"title":601,"slug":602,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":62,"order":604},{"title":606,"slug":607,"type":435,"volume":564,"volumeOrder":36,"chapterOrder":68,"order":609},{"title":611,"slug":612,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":16,"order":614},{"title":617,"slug":618,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":21,"order":620},{"title":622,"slug":623,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":26,"order":625},{"title":627,"slug":628,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":31,"order":630},{"title":632,"slug":633,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":36,"order":635},{"title":637,"slug":638,"type":435,"volume":615,"volumeOrder":41,"chapterOrder":41,"order":640},{"title":642,"slug":643,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":16,"order":645},{"title":648,"slug":649,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":21,"order":651},{"title":653,"slug":654,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":26,"order":656},{"title":658,"slug":659,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":31,"order":661},{"title":663,"slug":664,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":36,"order":666},{"title":668,"slug":669,"type":435,"volume":646,"volumeOrder":51,"chapterOrder":41,"order":671},[2551,2552,2553,2554,2555,2556,2557,2558,2559,2560,2561,2562,2563,2564,2565,2566,2567,2568,2569,2570,2571,2572,2573,2574,2575,2576,2577,2578,2579,2580,2581,2582,2583,2584,2585,2586,2587,2588,2589,2590,2591,2592,2593,2594,2595,2596,2597,2598,2599,2600,2601,2602,2603,2604,2605,2606,2607,2608,2609,2610,2611,2612,2613,2614,2615,2616,2617,2618,2619,2620,2621,2622,2623,2624,2625,2626,2627,2628,2629,2630,2631,2632,2633,2634,2641,2644,2648,2651,2653,2658,2661,2666,2669,2671,2675,2678,2681,2685,2690,2695,2700,2703,2707,2711,2713,2717,2720,2724,2729,2735,2737,2741,2743,2745,2749,2751,2755,2759,2764,2767,2771,2776,2780,2787,2791,2798,2800,2802,2807,2812,2819,2825,2826,2831,2833,2837,2841,2846,2848,2850,2855,2858,2860,2865,2868,2873,2877,2879,2883,2885,2887,2890,2894,2896,2899,2903,2905,2908,2911],{"title":5,"slug":6,"category":8,"tags":9,"type":10,"volume":9,"order":9},{"title":12,"slug":13,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":16},{"title":18,"slug":19,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":21},{"title":23,"slug":24,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":26},{"title":28,"slug":29,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":31},{"title":33,"slug":34,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":36},{"title":38,"slug":39,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":41},{"title":43,"slug":44,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":46},{"title":48,"slug":49,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":51},{"title":53,"slug":54,"category":15,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":56},{"title":58,"slug":59,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":62},{"title":64,"slug":65,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":68},{"title":70,"slug":71,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":68},{"title":74,"slug":75,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":77},{"title":79,"slug":80,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":77},{"title":83,"slug":84,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":86},{"title":88,"slug":89,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":86},{"title":92,"slug":93,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":95},{"title":97,"slug":98,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":95},{"title":101,"slug":102,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":104},{"title":106,"slug":107,"category":67,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":104},{"title":110,"slug":111,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":113},{"title":115,"slug":116,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":118},{"title":120,"slug":121,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":123},{"title":125,"slug":126,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":128},{"title":130,"slug":131,"category":61,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":133},{"title":135,"slug":136,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":139},{"title":141,"slug":142,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":144},{"title":146,"slug":147,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":149},{"title":151,"slug":152,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":154},{"title":156,"slug":157,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":159},{"title":161,"slug":162,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":164},{"title":166,"slug":167,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":169},{"title":171,"slug":172,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":174},{"title":176,"slug":177,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":179},{"title":181,"slug":182,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":184},{"title":186,"slug":187,"category":138,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":189},{"title":191,"slug":192,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":195},{"title":197,"slug":198,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":200},{"title":202,"slug":203,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":205},{"title":207,"slug":208,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":210},{"title":212,"slug":213,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":215},{"title":217,"slug":218,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":220},{"title":222,"slug":223,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":225},{"title":227,"slug":228,"category":194,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":230},{"title":232,"slug":233,"category":235,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":236},{"title":238,"slug":239,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":242},{"title":244,"slug":245,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":247},{"title":249,"slug":250,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":252},{"title":254,"slug":255,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":257},{"title":259,"slug":260,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":262},{"title":264,"slug":265,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":267},{"title":269,"slug":270,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":272},{"title":274,"slug":275,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":277},{"title":279,"slug":280,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":282},{"title":284,"slug":285,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":287},{"title":289,"slug":290,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":292},{"title":294,"slug":295,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":297},{"title":299,"slug":300,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":302},{"title":304,"slug":305,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":307},{"title":309,"slug":310,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":312},{"title":314,"slug":315,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":317},{"title":319,"slug":320,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":322},{"title":324,"slug":325,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":327},{"title":329,"slug":330,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":332},{"title":334,"slug":335,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":337},{"title":339,"slug":340,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":342},{"title":344,"slug":345,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":347},{"title":349,"slug":350,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":352},{"title":354,"slug":355,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":357},{"title":359,"slug":360,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":362},{"title":364,"slug":365,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":367},{"title":369,"slug":370,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":372},{"title":374,"slug":375,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":377},{"title":379,"slug":380,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":382},{"title":384,"slug":385,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":387},{"title":389,"slug":390,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":392},{"title":394,"slug":395,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":397},{"title":399,"slug":400,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":402},{"title":404,"slug":405,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":407},{"title":409,"slug":410,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":412},{"title":414,"slug":415,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":417},{"title":419,"slug":420,"category":241,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":422},{"title":424,"slug":425,"category":427,"tags":2635,"type":429,"volume":9,"order":428},[427,2636,2637,2638,2639,2640,646],"主题目录","投资认知","企业判断","财报估值","公司案例",{"title":431,"slug":432,"category":427,"tags":2642,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":434},[2495,2643,58],"买股票就是买公司",{"title":438,"slug":439,"category":427,"tags":2645,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":441},[2495,2646,2647],"投资理解","投资者",{"title":443,"slug":444,"category":427,"tags":2649,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":446},[2495,33,2650],"看懂生意",{"title":448,"slug":449,"category":427,"tags":2652,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":451},[2495,2496,2497,2498],{"title":453,"slug":454,"category":427,"tags":2654,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":456},[2495,2655,2656,2657],"宏观经济","市场波动","牛熊市",{"title":458,"slug":459,"category":427,"tags":2659,"type":435,"volume":436,"order":461},[2495,18,222,2660],"学习方法",{"title":463,"slug":464,"category":427,"tags":2662,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":466},[2663,2664,2665],"商业经营","伟大企业","长坡厚雪",{"title":469,"slug":470,"category":427,"tags":2667,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":472},[2663,70,2668],"投资确定性",{"title":474,"slug":475,"category":427,"tags":2670,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":477},[2663,74,146],{"title":479,"slug":480,"category":427,"tags":2672,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":482},[2663,2673,2674,53],"好产品","用户导向",{"title":484,"slug":485,"category":427,"tags":2676,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":487},[2663,141,2677],"产品",{"title":135,"slug":489,"category":427,"tags":2679,"type":435,"volume":467,"order":491},[2663,135,2680],"基业长青",{"title":493,"slug":494,"category":427,"tags":2682,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":496},[2495,2683,88,2684],"财务报表","ROE",{"title":499,"slug":500,"category":427,"tags":2686,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":502},[2495,2687,2688,2689],"定性判断","现金流折现","估值",{"title":504,"slug":505,"category":427,"tags":2691,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":507},[2495,2692,115,2693,2694],"折现率","市盈率","估值案例",{"title":509,"slug":510,"category":427,"tags":2696,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":512},[2495,2697,2698,2699],"分红","回购","资本配置",{"title":514,"slug":515,"category":427,"tags":2701,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":517},[2495,120,2702,115],"集中投资",{"title":519,"slug":520,"category":427,"tags":2704,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":522},[2495,2705,2706,2689],"买卖时机","持有",{"title":524,"slug":525,"category":427,"tags":2708,"type":435,"volume":497,"order":527},[2495,125,2709,2710],"套利","量化交易",{"title":529,"slug":530,"category":427,"tags":2712,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":532},[2663,12,18,186],{"title":535,"slug":536,"category":427,"tags":2714,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":538},[2663,2715,2716,227],"Stop Doing List","聚焦",{"title":540,"slug":541,"category":427,"tags":2718,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":543},[2663,2719,48],"创新",{"title":545,"slug":546,"category":427,"tags":2721,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":548},[2663,2722,2723,161],"营销","广告",{"title":550,"slug":551,"category":427,"tags":2725,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":553},[2663,2726,2727,2728],"管理层","团队","激励",{"title":555,"slug":556,"category":427,"tags":2730,"type":435,"volume":533,"order":558},[2663,2731,2732,2733,2734],"收购","并购","多元化","多品牌",{"title":560,"slug":561,"category":427,"tags":2736,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":563},[2640,1526,2677,171],{"title":566,"slug":567,"category":427,"tags":2738,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":569},[2640,1526,2739,2740],"乔布斯","库克",{"title":571,"slug":572,"category":427,"tags":2742,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":574},[2640,1526,2689,2699],{"title":576,"slug":577,"category":427,"tags":2744,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":579},[2640,1926,141,70],{"title":581,"slug":582,"category":427,"tags":2746,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":584},[2640,1926,2747,2748],"公司治理","i茅台",{"title":586,"slug":587,"category":427,"tags":2750,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":589},[2640,1926,2689,120],{"title":591,"slug":592,"category":427,"tags":2752,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":594},[2640,2753,2754],"小霸王","步步高",{"title":596,"slug":597,"category":427,"tags":2756,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":599},[2640,596,2757,2758],"丁磊","游戏",{"title":601,"slug":602,"category":427,"tags":2760,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":604},[2640,2761,2762,2763],"阿里巴巴","雅虎","马云",{"title":606,"slug":607,"category":427,"tags":2765,"type":435,"volume":564,"order":609},[2640,606,2766],"情绪价值",{"title":611,"slug":612,"category":427,"tags":2768,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":614},[2640,2769,2770],"消费电子","日本制造",{"title":617,"slug":618,"category":427,"tags":2772,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":620},[2640,2773,2774,2775],"游戏行业","游戏公司","中国游戏",{"title":622,"slug":623,"category":427,"tags":2777,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":625},[2640,2778,2779],"互联网平台","科技产业",{"title":627,"slug":628,"category":427,"tags":2781,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":630},[2640,2782,2783,2784,2785,2786],"零售","电商","服务业","教育培训","航空",{"title":632,"slug":633,"category":427,"tags":2788,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":635},[2640,2789,2790],"能源","工业企业",{"title":637,"slug":638,"category":427,"tags":2792,"type":435,"volume":615,"order":640},[2640,2793,2794,2795,1889,2796,2797],"格力","美的","比亚迪","招商银行","瑞贝卡",{"title":642,"slug":643,"category":427,"tags":2799,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":645},[646,23,28],{"title":648,"slug":649,"category":427,"tags":2801,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":651},[646,217,222,227],{"title":653,"slug":654,"category":427,"tags":2803,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":656},[646,2804,2805,2806],"职业","创业","享受过程",{"title":658,"slug":659,"category":427,"tags":2808,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":661},[646,2809,2810,2811],"家庭","孩子","教育",{"title":663,"slug":664,"category":427,"tags":2813,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":666},[646,2814,2815,2816,2817,2818],"开放心态","阅读","AI","公益","社会责任",{"title":668,"slug":669,"category":427,"tags":2820,"type":435,"volume":646,"order":671},[646,2821,2822,2823,2824],"健康","睡眠","Zone 2","高尔夫",{"title":673,"slug":674,"category":676,"tags":9,"type":9,"volume":9,"order":677},{"title":676,"slug":679,"category":676,"tags":2827,"type":682,"volume":9,"order":681},[2828,2829,843,2830],"公司","人物","投资案例",{"title":684,"slug":685,"category":676,"tags":2832,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":687},[1526,70,135,156,2740,2739],{"title":690,"slug":691,"category":676,"tags":2834,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":693},[2835,2836,12,135,23],"黄峥","拼多多",{"title":696,"slug":697,"category":676,"tags":2838,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":699},[606,2839,151,2766,2840,141,74],"王宁","IP",{"title":701,"slug":702,"category":676,"tags":2842,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":704},[2839,606,2843,2844,23,2845],"创始人","CEO","商业理解",{"title":706,"slug":707,"category":676,"tags":2847,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":709},[1926,141,88,33,120],{"title":711,"slug":712,"category":676,"tags":2849,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":714},[596,2757,2758,88,120],{"title":716,"slug":717,"category":676,"tags":2851,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":719},[1532,2852,2853,2854,70],"马化腾","微信","微信支付",{"title":721,"slug":722,"category":676,"tags":2856,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":724},[2761,2763,135,70,2857],"保留",{"title":726,"slug":727,"category":676,"tags":2859,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":729},[2836,2835,12,161,70],{"title":731,"slug":732,"category":676,"tags":2861,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":734},[2862,2863,2864,2816,74,33],"英伟达","黄仁勋","CUDA",{"title":736,"slug":737,"category":676,"tags":2866,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":739},[2867,2758,161,176,33],"任天堂",{"title":741,"slug":742,"category":676,"tags":2869,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":744},[2870,2871,135,2733,33,2872],"GE","通用电气","反思",{"title":746,"slug":747,"category":676,"tags":2874,"type":688,"volume":9,"order":749},[2875,2876,2811,70,2857],"新东方","俞敏洪",{"title":751,"slug":752,"category":676,"tags":2878,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":754},[949,58,2643,18,227],{"title":756,"slug":757,"category":676,"tags":2880,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":759},[1411,222,2881,33,2882],"逆向思维","Costco",{"title":761,"slug":762,"category":676,"tags":2884,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":764},[2739,1526,181,186,135],{"title":766,"slug":767,"category":676,"tags":2886,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":769},[2740,1526,2844,222,135],{"title":771,"slug":772,"category":676,"tags":2888,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":774},[2763,2761,135,18,2889],"理想主义",{"title":776,"slug":777,"category":676,"tags":2891,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":779},[2757,596,2758,2892,2893],"现金","企业家",{"title":781,"slug":782,"category":676,"tags":2895,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":784},[2852,1532,2853,2854,70],{"title":786,"slug":787,"category":676,"tags":2897,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":789},[2876,2875,2811,2898,2893],"韧性",{"title":791,"slug":792,"category":676,"tags":2900,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":794},[2901,1926,181,2902,141],"季克良","质量文化",{"title":796,"slug":797,"category":676,"tags":2904,"type":694,"volume":9,"order":799},[2863,2862,2816,2864,2893],{"title":801,"slug":802,"category":676,"tags":2906,"type":805,"volume":9,"order":804},[2907,843,70,135,2830],"公司清单",{"title":807,"slug":808,"category":676,"tags":2909,"type":805,"volume":9,"order":810},[2910,843,2893,58,2843],"人物清单",{"title":812,"slug":813,"category":676,"tags":2912,"type":805,"volume":9,"order":815},[2913,843,33,70,2830],"重估案例",1791623726054]