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CEO","person-tim-cook","段永平评价库克，核心是理性、理解乔布斯追求、延续苹果文化，并把苹果从乔布斯时代带入更大规模的长期经营。",5230,{"title":771,"slug":772,"description":773,"category":676,"order":774,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马云：段永平为什么一直认为他了不起","person-mayun","段永平对马云的评价长期很高：他看重马云兼具理想主义和现实主义，也欣赏其勇气和企业文化意识；但这不等于他对阿里没有保留。",5240,{"title":776,"slug":777,"description":778,"category":676,"order":779,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"丁磊：段永平为什么说他很有悟性","person-dinglei","段永平评价丁磊，核心是“很有悟性”、单纯、不算计人，而且在网易现金很多时没有犯大错。",5250,{"title":781,"slug":782,"description":783,"category":676,"order":784,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"马化腾：段永平为什么正面评价他","person-mahuateng","段永平对马化腾的评价简洁但重要：人不错、年轻，并且微信和微信支付的影响非常大且深远。",5260,{"title":786,"slug":787,"description":788,"category":676,"order":789,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"俞敏洪：段永平为什么说他是条汉子","person-yuminhong","段永平欣赏俞敏洪的韧性和面对问题的能力，甚至说他是“条汉子”；但也认为俞离顶级企业家还有距离，新东方生意模式不是自己特别喜欢的类型。",5270,{"title":791,"slug":792,"description":793,"category":676,"order":794,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"季克良：段永平为什么说他对茅台至关重要","person-jikeliang","段永平评价季克良，核心是质量文化和造钟人作用：季克良让茅台成为今天的茅台，功不可没。",5280,{"title":796,"slug":797,"description":798,"category":676,"order":799,"type":694,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"黄仁勋：段永平为什么欣赏他","person-huangrenxun","段永平欣赏黄仁勋，重点在真诚、有能量、长期方向一致，以及带领英伟达形成强生态；但他仍然区分“欣赏人”和“看懂英伟达十年护城河”。",5290,{"title":801,"slug":802,"description":803,"category":676,"order":804,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的公司","topic-highly-rated-companies","段永平高度评价公司时，核心标准不是名气，而是能否长期做对事情：好产品、好商业模式、好文化、好管理层和可理解的未来现金流。",5300,"topic",{"title":807,"slug":808,"description":809,"category":676,"order":810,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平高度评价过的人","topic-highly-rated-people","段永平评价人，重点不是名气，而是这个人是否理性、真诚、关注本质、能长期做对事情，并能把个人能力沉淀为组织能力。",5310,{"title":812,"slug":813,"description":814,"category":676,"order":815,"type":805,"volume":9,"volumeOrder":9,"chapterOrder":9},"段永平正在重估的公司","topic-revaluated-companies","段永平的重估案例最值得看的是变化过程：他会承认看不懂，也会在新证据出现后调整判断，但始终保留能力圈和长期现金流边界。",5320,{"id":817,"title":453,"body":818,"category":427,"chapterOrder":36,"date":9,"description":455,"editor":2205,"extension":2206,"meta":2207,"navigation":2208,"order":456,"path":2209,"publishedAt":9,"seo":2210,"seoDescription":455,"seoTitle":2211,"slug":454,"source":9,"sourceAuthor":863,"sourceDate":9,"sourceNote":2212,"sourceStatus":2213,"sourceUrl":9,"sources":2214,"stem":2215,"summary":455,"tags":2216,"type":435,"updatedAt":2221,"volume":436,"volumeOrder":16,"__hash__":2222,"_collection":2223},"dao\u002Fdao\u002Fqanda\u002Fwenda-invest-05.md",{"type":819,"value":820,"toc":2192},"minimark",[821,826,830,837,840,845,848,853,856,859,865,874,877,880,883,886,895,898,901,912,929,932,941,950,953,959,965,974,977,980,983,986,989,993,996,1001,1008,1013,1016,1019,1030,1033,1036,1039,1042,1047,1050,1057,1062,1069,1072,1075,1078,1081,1087,1092,1095,1100,1107,1112,1115,1120,1123,1129,1132,1135,1141,1144,1147,1150,1155,1158,1161,1166,1169,1172,1176,1179,1184,1187,1192,1195,1200,1203,1208,1211,1216,1219,1224,1228,1231,1236,1239,1242,1249,1255,1267,1272,1275,1280,1283,1288,1291,1296,1302,1305,1310,1313,1322,1325,1330,1333,1338,1341,1344,1353,1358,1361,1366,1369,1374,1377,1382,1385,1390,1393,1398,1401,1406,1409,1414,1417,1423,1428,1433,1438,1441,1446,1450,1453,1458,1466,1472,1475,1478,1484,1489,1495,1498,1503,1506,1511,1514,1517,1520,1523,1528,1532,1535,1544,1547,1550,1555,1558,1563,1566,1571,1577,1582,1585,1590,1597,1600,1605,1611,1619,1622,1627,1633,1636,1641,1644,1649,1652,1657,1660,1665,1668,1671,1676,1679,1682,1687,1690,1693,1696,1701,1704,1707,1712,1715,1720,1724,1727,1732,1735,1740,1743,1748,1751,1756,1759,1764,1767,1772,1775,1778,1781,1790,1793,1796,1801,1809,1814,1818,1821,1826,1829,1834,1837,1842,1845,1850,1853,1858,1861,1866,1869,1874,1877,1882,1885,1890,1893,1896,1899,1902,1906,1909,1914,1917,1926,1929,1932,1937,1940,1945,1948,1953,1956,1959,1962,1965,1970,1973,1978,1981,1986,1989,1992,1997,2010,2015,2021,2024,2027,2032,2035,2038,2042,2045,2050,2053,2056,2059,2065,2070,2073,2079,2082,2087,2090,2095,2098,2103,2106,2109,2112,2115,2118,2121,2124,2127,2134,2139,2144,2150,2153,2158,2161,2166,2175,2178,2181,2184,2187],[822,823,825],"h2",{"id":824},"第一节-投票器与称重机股价由什么决定","第一节 投票器与称重机：股价由什么决定",[827,828,829],"p",{},"网友：我想知道股价具体是由谁决定的？还有决定股价的因素。比如每股10元，一小时后涨到每股10.5元，那这个价格是谁决定的呢？呵呵，这问题困扰我很久了，网上都没找到合适答案，都是答非所问。您是这方面的权威，看到您的博客就好像看到了答案。",[827,831,832,836],{},[833,834,835],"strong",{},"段永平："," 短期股价是由（买卖量）供求决定的，长期股价是由价值决定的。（2010-03-26）",[827,838,839],{},"网友：您认为股价和股民的行为有关还是和实际价值有关联？",[827,841,842,844],{},[833,843,835],{}," 短期和买卖有关，长期实际上无关。（2010-04-04）",[827,846,847],{},"网友：真的不懂相对容易分辨，但就是这似懂非懂害死人。",[827,849,850,852],{},[833,851,835],{}," 多数人的问题不在这里。另外，懂的意思差别也很大。很多人一辈子都努力在懂市场，我只是想办法搞懂某些个企业，难度差别非常大。搞懂市场是不可能的任务，Mission impossible!懂了吗？",[827,854,855],{},"懂市场这个说法不严谨。市场长期是“称重机”，短期是“投票器”。搞懂这两点的区别很重要。多数人花太多时间和心思在搞懂“投票器”上了。(2022-03-05)",[827,857,858],{},"网友T：投票机和称重机的比喻就是这个，你还在琢磨投票机的事，而应该多考虑称重机才对。",[827,860,861,864],{},[833,862,863],{},"段永平"," ：（憨笑表情）（2011-06-09）",[827,866,867,869,870,873],{},[833,868,835],{}," 我总是假设市场绝大多数情况下是非常聪明的，除非我发现市场确实错了。",[833,871,872],{},"（这句话是针对‘逆向操作’说的。逆向思维很重要，但逆向操作和随波逐流都是不可取的。最重要的是理性的独立思考能力"," ）（2012-04-06）",[827,875,876],{},"网友：有两句话是这么说的：",[827,878,879],{},"1、股价低点由价值投资者决定，是他们买住了股价。高点由投机者决定，他们的疯狂连上帝都惊讶。",[827,881,882],{},"2、低点和高点其实都是由投机者决定，价值投资者的地位是中流砥柱。",[827,884,885],{},"觉得第二句说得更在理。",[827,887,888,890,891,894],{},[833,889,863],{}," ：",[833,892,893],{},"第三句话可能更有道理，就是你说的这两句话和你一点关系都没有。"," （2015-04-18）",[827,896,897],{},"网友：段大佬的投资成功，还有一个甚至超过公司够好还重要的因素，就是他到了一个流动性充裕的地方。流动性充裕在决定投资成功与否上的重要程度，某种意义上超过了公司是否够好。对吗，大佬？",[827,899,900],{},"大道：我买网易的时候网易根本就没有什么流动性。流动性只影响交易的方便度，对价值没影响。（2026-07-28）",[827,902,903,904,907,908,911],{},"网友：市场从来不缺机会，大道说了这么多年的",[833,905,906],{},"腾讯","、",[833,909,910],{},"茅台","，也没见把股价说上去啊。",[827,913,914,915,918,919,921,922,925,926,928],{},"大道：我从2011年就在雪球说",[833,916,917],{},"苹果","了，说了十几年才涨上来的吧？ 至少前三年好像都还经常是掉的。我说",[833,920,596],{},"的时候还没雪球呢，那时候是在",[833,923,924],{},"Yahoo","聊，不过可能没人注意到。",[833,927,910],{},"我好像从2013年左右就开始聊了？我分享自己的想法其实就是觉得好玩。投资的道理很简单，任何公司的买家都只有一个，到最后和别人怎么说没有一毛钱关系。",[827,930,931],{},"看不懂这句话的人和我其实都不是一路的。（2026-04-12）",[827,933,934,935,937,938,940],{},"网友专栏（",[833,936,863],{},"：从2011年就在雪球上说",[833,939,917],{},"，说了十几年才涨上来的——公开分享从来不影响赚钱）",[827,942,943,944],{},"链接：",[945,946,947],"a",{"href":947,"rel":948},"https:\u002F\u002Fxueqiu.com\u002F7736566551\u002F383628959?scene=1036&share_uid=9908639148",[949],"nofollow",[827,951,952],{},"大道：其实是因为公司的买家只有一个人，就是公司自己。别的人说啥都不重要。",[827,954,955,956,958],{},"网友：一家企业被错误定价的时间不会持续超过三年，这是",[833,957,863],{},"说的。我只有泡泡玛特股票，成本价158，面对这种阴跌内心毫无波动。",[827,960,961,962,964],{},"大道：",[833,963,910],{},"被“错误定价”应该已经超过三年了，所以三年只是一个说法。不过，如果10年后你还觉得是错误定价，也许错的就是你哈。（2026-06-23）",[827,966,967,968,970,971,973],{},"网友：大道投资",[833,969,596],{},"（2001）、GE（2008）、",[833,972,910],{},"（2013）都是明显的错误定价时机，所以价值回归都没超过三年。",[827,975,976],{},"大道：哈，明显吗？在那个moment，其实绝大多数人是持不同观点的。（2026-06-23）",[827,978,979],{},"网友：很简单，你不懂泡泡玛特，你也不懂市场，但是，你心里有市场，但大道心中没有市场。\n真正的投资者都是心中没有市场的，只是利用市场而已。\n他并不知道泡泡会不会掉到 120，他知道 150 的收益率他能接受，所以他买了，他也不在乎泡泡会不会真的掉到 120。",[827,981,982],{},"大道：哈，心中有市场的那些人们最终都会发现其实没人能懂“市场”，不管你多努力。（2026-08-27）",[827,984,985],{},"网友：非常感谢，段哥，投资泡泡玛特的人多了，投机的少了，这样有利于泡泡玛特股价稳定上行",[827,987,988],{},"大道：一个公司的股价最终跟且只跟这个公司赚的钱的总数有关，其他都是过客。（2026-08-27）",[822,990,992],{"id":991},"第二节-把波动当作朋友","第二节 把波动当作朋友",[827,994,995],{},"网友：好的公司股价应该不会有这么大的波动",[827,997,998,1000],{},[833,999,835],{}," 好的公司和股价是否波动无关。（2015-12-10）",[827,1002,1003,1004,1007],{},"网友：",[833,1005,1006],{},"巴菲特","曾说，如果市场总是有效的，他只会成为一个在大街上手拎马口铁罐的流浪汉。",[827,1009,1010,1012],{},[833,1011,835],{}," 个人理解：如果市场总是有效的，那我赚啥子钱嘛？其实市场确实在很多时候是很有效的。但市场一定会有胡来的时候。",[827,1014,1015],{},"呵呵，波动是朋友。",[827,1017,1018],{},"其实自己真的明白的公司跌得重是值得高兴的事情，除非你其实不真懂。",[827,1020,1021,1022,1025,1026,1029],{},"“根据股票的波动性来判断风险是很傻的。我们认为只有两种风险：一，血本无归；二，回报不足。有些很好的生意也是波动性很大的，比如",[833,1023,1024],{},"喜诗糖果","通常一年有两个季度都是亏钱的。反倒是有些烂透了的公司生意业绩很稳定。”(",[833,1027,1028],{},"芒格",")",[827,1031,1032],{},"想想周围有多少人还在用“股票的波动性”来衡量风险吧。",[827,1034,1035],{},"网友：自己有钱继续买感觉空头是朋友，心里很高兴，但没钱买如果下跌多点心里不是那么舒服",[827,1037,1038],{},"大道：你没钱了又不是空头的错。再说，股价狂涨的时候往往就是空头们在买啊。我有很多空头朋友，虽然我不认识他们。（2026-07-24）",[827,1040,1041],{},"网友：难过没有闲钱加仓了，跌得重但是没有钱加仓了还要开心吗？",[827,1043,1044,1046],{},[833,1045,835],{}," 关你什么事！?",[827,1048,1049],{},"“关你什么事”的意思是针对“没有闲钱加仓了”而言的。既然没闲钱了，那股价下跌就跟你无关了。",[827,1051,1052,1053,1056],{},"嘴里说着熊市牛市啥的，心里其实想的都是赚市场的钱，其实就是",[945,1054,125],{"href":1055},"\u002Ftouji","的意思。投资赚的是公司赚的钱。这两者有着很大的区别。",[827,1058,1059],{},[833,1060,1061],{},"我不对抗市场，我尽量不理睬市场而已。",[827,1063,1064,1065,1068],{},"你可能专注于猜市场很多年了。",[833,1066,1067],{},"试试以后忘记市场，专注研究企业","。那么多人专注于研究市场几十年都退不了休，你也许可以想想为什么？",[827,1070,1071],{},"网友：泡泡玛特 大道老师，怎么看泡泡玛特的空头，怎么应对。能给我们这些小散点建议嘛",[827,1073,1074],{},"大道：空头是朋友啊！如果你想买，你当然希望能买的便宜一点？怕空头的人最好别碰股市，你完全不知道自己在干什么。（2026-07-24）",[827,1076,1077],{},"网友：难的是不做赌徒，更难的是不知道自己是赌徒。",[827,1079,1080],{},"大道：股价一掉就想卖的大多都是赌徒。（2026-08-19）",[827,1082,1083,1084,1086],{},"网友：这个月",[833,1085,910],{},"掉30个点，一般人的心脏受不了。",[827,1088,1089,1091],{},[833,1090,835],{}," 承受不了这点跌幅的人们本来就不应该碰股市。再说，股市上历年统计显示大部分人都是亏钱的。这个统计其实很怪异，因为长期来说，股市一直是涨的(比如用10年段看，过去几十年的每个10年段股市可能都是涨的)，但为什么80%以上的人们会是亏损的呢？",[827,1093,1094],{},"网友：请问股价的大幅波动，对公司的经营或生产有什么影响吗？",[827,1096,1097,1099],{},[833,1098,835],{}," 好公司应该没影响！（2010-04-14）",[827,1101,1102,1103,1106],{},"网友：这个兴不兴奋应该还是与我们的仓位有关吧，老段如果已经满仓，遇到暴跌难道还可以兴奋吗？巴菲特也是有源源不断的",[945,1104,88],{"href":1105},"\u002Fxianjinliu","才希望公司下跌嘛。",[827,1108,1109,1111],{},[833,1110,863],{}," ：如果你只有一只股票，而且还是满仓的，如果你真正了解你投资的东西的话，那下跌就和你无关了。（2010-04-23）",[827,1113,1114],{},"网友：呵呵，美国股市波动也真大。yahoo开盘涨幅好大。",[827,1116,1117,1119],{},[833,1118,835],{}," 呵呵，波动是朋友（2010-05-10）",[827,1121,1122],{},"04．【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华（2012-02-17）",[827,1124,1125,1126],{},"56、事实上，真正的投资人喜欢波动都还来不及，本杰明·格雷厄姆《聪明的投资人》一书的第八章便有所解释，他引用了“市场先生”理论，",[833,1127,1128],{},"“市场先生”每天都会出现在你面前，只要你愿意都可以从他那里买进或卖出你的投资，只要他老兄越沮丧，投资人拥有的机会也就越多。",[827,1130,1131],{},"这是由于只要市场波动的幅度越大，一些超低的价格就更有机会出现在一些好公司身上，很难想象这种低价的优惠会被投资人视为对其有害，对于投资人来说，你完全可以无视于他的存在或是好好地利用这种愚蠢的行为。（1993）",[827,1133,1134],{},"网友：我记得学长您是习惯用市价盘买卖股票的，不知道您会不会受到任何短期波动的影响，但是买了以后马上跌5%肯定也会觉得惋惜吧？",[827,1136,1137,1140],{},[833,1138,1139],{},"段永平：你要是真的拥有这家公司，你不会在意的，不然因为股价永远在波动，你每时每刻都会“觉得惋惜”"," 。（2016-01-14）",[827,1142,1143],{},"网友：今天看泡泡玛特的股价，20年上市冲到了107，22年最低跌到了9块，相当于100万两年内变成了9万。 25年又涨到330，现在150。  如果现在自己的股票跌了90%还拿得住吗，说实话，拿不住。 投资难的是心态。",[827,1145,1146],{},"大道：你拿不住的原因只有一个，你根本就不知道你买了什么。你只是买了个票，然后盼着他涨，而且最好是马上涨。如果真的涨了，你就觉得自己投对了。如果跌了，你就开始怀疑自己是不是错了，跌的越多怀疑越大……。（2026-08-18）",[827,1148,1149],{},"网友：如何对待大跌当中的“恐惧”情绪？",[827,1151,1152,1154],{},[833,1153,835],{}," 跟心理素质没有关系，恐惧是因为你不明白所谓“价值”为何物。",[827,1156,1157],{},"你根本就没明白上市公司与不上市公司的区别，所以下跌你还会恐惧。恐惧的程度与了解程度成反比。只要你投的公司是自己明白的生意，就不容易恐惧，也不容易贪婪。",[827,1159,1160],{},"昨天问一炒股朋友：最近股市暴跌了，睡眠怎样？他说：像婴儿般睡眠。我说：不愧是高手！这都能睡得着！他沉默半响道：半夜经常醒来哭一会再睡。（从网易微薄上转帖）",[827,1162,1163,1165],{},[833,1164,863],{}," ：如果是半夜起来笑一会会怎么样？",[827,1167,1168],{},"如果因为自己买的股票掉了而兴奋的话，对价值投资的理解就可能有进步了。",[827,1170,1171],{},"昨天看yahoo盘后掉我就很兴奋来着，一夜只睡了不到两小时，就为了早点起来买yahoo，然后去Augusta打球。结果在17.5以下又买了200多万股，后面还可以再来些。没睡好的原因其实是因为时差造成的。（2010-04-23）",[822,1173,1175],{"id":1174},"第三节-逆向不是投资","第三节 逆向不是投资",[827,1177,1178],{},"网友：顺向逆向并不重要，重要的是经过认真的研究分析后，能独立的做决策。",[827,1180,1181,1183],{},[833,1182,835],{}," 逆向思维确实很重要！（2010-06-07）",[827,1185,1186],{},"网友：段老师，当一只股票已经出现安全边际，但考虑到市场情绪仍可能使股票价格再创新低，您怎么办？",[827,1188,1189,1191],{},[833,1190,863],{}," ：我不知道怎么考虑市场情绪。（2010-06-21）",[827,1193,1194],{},"网友：逆向。别人恐惧我贪婪，别人疯狂我恐惧。",[827,1196,1197,1199],{},[833,1198,835],{}," 如果你不懂你要逆向的东西同样也是很危险的。乱逆向的人手里可能会买很多雷曼或aig或安然的股票。市场大部分时候是非常聪明的，错判的机会其实很少。（2011-05-09）",[827,1201,1202],{},"网友：目前环境下已很容易判别出：自己是不是一个「逆向投资者」。",[827,1204,1205,1207],{},[833,1206,835],{}," 逆向未必就是投资，也可能是接飞刀。（2012-11-21）",[827,1209,1210],{},"网友：马克斯写的书《投资最重要的事》，霍华德在书中说：沃伦。巴菲特教给我耐心和逆向投资。好像段大哥一般很少说逆向投资。",[827,1212,1213,1215],{},[833,1214,835],{}," 好的投资大多都是逆向的，但逆向的未必就是好投资。这是初中平面几何里学的逻辑关系哈。（2013-01-23）",[827,1217,1218],{},"网友：您说做价值投资逆向思维与随波逐流都是不可取的，唯有理性独立思考。那像投资标普500这样的指着基金可以逆向投资吗？",[827,1220,1221,1223],{},[833,1222,835],{}," 逆向指的是和别人反向做，投资和别人无关。你可以买你认为便宜的东西，但很难买你认为别人以后会怎么看的公司。股市大部分时候是很聪明的，公司股价的涨跌往往都有其道理，但股市偶尔（其实也很经常）会错。逆向顾名思义就是不管三七二十一，那样会很危险的。（2013-02-22）",[822,1225,1227],{"id":1226},"第四节-忽略噪声不看图看线","第四节 忽略噪声：不看图看线",[827,1229,1230],{},"网友：但斌还是把企业分析放在第一位的。",[827,1232,1233,1235],{},[833,1234,835],{}," 那你认为看图看线应该放在第几位？（2012-08-13）",[827,1237,1238],{},"你这话给我的感觉像是说某人并不总是坏人，所以是好人。这话和但斌无关哈。",[827,1240,1241],{},"很多人不明白看图看线的地方是：看图看线实际上是有50%的准确率的，唯一的问题是人们事先无法肯定哪次是对的。",[827,1243,1244,1245,1248],{},"看图看线实际上就是看目前(这个时刻或时段)别人对股票的看法。",[945,1246,58],{"href":1247},"\u002Fjiazhitouzi","者的心中是无图无线的！（2012-08-14）",[827,1250,1251,1252,1254],{},"看图看线看到",[833,1253,1006],{},"这条路上来不容易啊。我看过很多人在这一行干了几十年，从来就没有明白过为什么看图看线赚不了大钱。你要当了看图看线的理想主义者就麻烦了。",[827,1256,1257,1258,1260,1261,1263,1264,1266],{},"我就知道我满仓买过一次当年美国涨幅第一的股票，还好那时没看图看线，不然早卖了。看图看线忙一辈子也不如错过这一次啊。记得当",[833,1259,596],{},"1块零5分时，我曾建议一个大行的人买进。这哥们以三十几年看图看线的经验告诉我，现在还不是时候。等",[833,1262,596],{},"突破20块时，他很兴奋地告诉我现在可以买了。其实他也是对的，因为",[833,1265,596],{},"确实涨到20多他才卖的(一分四以前)。",[827,1268,1269,1271],{},[833,1270,863],{}," ：我认识但斌，但还在想他怎么又过渡回看图看线了，说明这哥们骨子里还是有图有线的。（2012-08-11）",[827,1273,1274],{},"网友：但斌的水平真的不怎么样！他学习价值投资比较照搬，没有真正领悟。",[827,1276,1277,1279],{},[833,1278,835],{}," 但斌的水平比绝大多数人还是要高很多的。（2010-10-30）",[827,1281,1282],{},"网友：我刚开始也看图，不过三个月之后就放弃了，是不是投资人刚开始都要经过这一步啊？",[827,1284,1285,1287],{},[833,1286,863],{}," ：呵呵，我也看过几天，就是不明白所有人看一张图，为什么可以得出相反的结论。（2010-05-24）",[827,1289,1290],{},"网友：你投资股票关注K线趋势图，成交量这些吗？经常看盘吗？",[827,1292,1293,1295],{},[833,1294,835],{}," 我不看图不看线不看盘。（2010-06-02）",[827,1297,1298,1299,1301],{},"网友X：学长对“看图看线”好像特别敏感啊，记得您已经质问过三四位朋友了，",[833,1300,835],{}," 呵呵，这几天陪朋友去赌场玩，也看图看线来着。（2010-07-04）",[827,1303,1304],{},"网友Y：阿段前辈是不是也懂看图看线呢？只是不用？是不是应该两手都要硬（价值投资和看图看线）？",[827,1306,1307,1309],{},[833,1308,835],{}," 我的水平已经到了知道不应该看图看线的地方。（2010-07-05）",[827,1311,1312],{},"网友：我有个感叹，要是很多投资人能像段总那样，一进投资的世界把路就走对就好了，不用走很多弯路，我相信很多投资人都是从看图看线，浮躁的情绪中走过来的，是付出代价的。投资要是刚开始就做对的事情，走从企业出发的投资之路，肯定都会很出色。",[827,1314,1315,1317,1318,1321],{},[833,1316,835],{}," 呵呵，",[833,1319,1320],{},"我从来没用k线图决定过投资。到目前为止，我发现用过看图看线的人就很少有真正放弃的。其实，什么时候明白都一样，如果真的明白的话。"," （2010-07-09）",[827,1323,1324],{},"网友：见有一些文章提到，比如芒格继子说芒格以前每天晚上研究一番标普500指数，芒格看不看K线图这事儿得问段总，反正我没见过芒格，说啥都是个猜。",[827,1326,1327,1329],{},[833,1328,863],{}," ：标普500指数可不是k线图啊。我就有标普500（SPR）的puts。这么无聊的问题。难道下次我见到芒格时先问他：你用k线图吗？k线图只能代表别人现在怎么看（买卖）这只股票，和你的观点本不应有关系的。如果谁还有问题，请先回到事物的原点。（2010-07-09）",[827,1331,1332],{},"网友：That kind of drop will have some folks rubbing their hands together at the prospect of buying into Yahoo while it’s down，but they should be careful -- while the stock looks cheap，it’s hard to think why the shares should return higher.",[827,1334,1335,1337],{},[833,1336,835],{}," 你看图看线？（2010-07-04）",[827,1339,1340],{},"网友：我相信段总的决策是完全基于对美股主观的估值。看图看线本质上也是基于历史客观数据，而抛弃主观估值。所以我认为本质上B-S公式和看图看线是一个道理。当然这不能否定B-S公式学术上的完美。拥有主观估值，是巴菲特理论和其他江湖理论的根本区别。",[827,1342,1343],{},"呵呵，B-S公式可是拿过诺贝尔奖的，我把它与看图看线当作一路货色。是不是太鄙视它了？",[827,1345,1346,1348,1349,1352],{},[833,1347,835],{}," 看企业经营历史很重要，不然无法了解企业。",[833,1350,1351],{},"看图看线看的股价的历史，也就是以前别人怎么评价公司的"," ，两者完全不是一回事。（2010-08-14）",[827,1354,1355,1357],{},[833,1356,835],{}," 交易员出身转到价值投资确实不容易，因为你的障碍会比别人多。你现在还偶尔看图看线吗？（2011-10-21）",[827,1359,1360],{},"刘志超：去年常看，今年看得少了，但偶尔也会看。现在看K线，不会像之前产生价格高或低的看法，也不会据此形成对未来走势的判断。炒股软件自买股后基本没打开过，看价格只在i美股看关注公司市值的变化。",[827,1362,1363,1365],{},[833,1364,835],{}," 呵呵，有进步哈。我发现价值投资对很多人来讲就像对面那座大山，看起来很近，实际上可能还很远。（2011-10-21）",[827,1367,1368],{},"刘志超：感谢大道的点拨。价值投资这条路对于我来说未来还很艰难，我会做好准备，踏实的走下去。",[827,1370,1371,1373],{},[833,1372,835],{}," 呵呵，在这么有乐趣有钱途的大道上干嘛那么一副苦大仇深的样子啊？（2011-10-21）",[827,1375,1376],{},"网友：老段，价值投资的东西在这里学习了太多，再次谢过！但是我有一个毛病，帮我诊断一下。就是我还是经常看行情（就是看图看线），虽然看图看线不作为决策依据。要不要戒掉？",[827,1378,1379,1381],{},[833,1380,835],{}," 不用谢哈，反正你啥也没学会。（2015-12-06）",[827,1383,1384],{},"网友：您说的我理解，我的意思是我们要不要需要经常看公司的市值（股价），主要目的是和我们心中公司内在价值比较。以免不错过投资机会。",[827,1386,1387,1389],{},[833,1388,835],{}," 看个股价不需要看图看线的，偶尔看下就可以了，常看容易短视。（2015-12-10）",[827,1391,1392],{},"网友：今天看到您说回复说市场有七窍，您已通6窍。大道方便说说市场有哪7窍吗？其中6窍您是怎么理解的？谢谢！",[827,1394,1395,1397],{},[833,1396,835],{}," 就是我对市场一窍不通的意思。（2019-04-03）",[827,1399,1400],{},"网友：如果大道发现低估的股票，会不会去弄明白市场哪里错了？我们假设市场大多数时候是对的吧？如果不知道市场错在哪，是不是意味着我们还没真懂？",[827,1402,1403,1405],{},[833,1404,835],{}," 想公司，想生意，想10年20年后公司是什么。不要理会市场，你永远不会明白疯子在想什么的。(2024-03-14)",[827,1407,1408],{},"网友：那我要是想经常关注公司市值，不经常看的话那怎么知道呢？",[827,1410,1411,1413],{},[833,1412,835],{}," 关注生意而不是股价。（2015-12-08）",[827,1415,1416],{},"网友：判断高低涨跌这些东西太复杂了，这是自己能力圈之外的东西，也是害人的东西，它让我们只见树木不见森林，只拣芝麻不抱西瓜。",[827,1418,1419,1422],{},[833,1420,1421],{},"段永平：变现容易，进出方便，是绝大多数人投资亏损的首因"," 。（2011-12-13）",[827,1424,1003,1425,1427],{},[833,1426,1028],{},"说的是对的。专注根本的东西就是要排除不必要的信息，把精力放在最重要的事情上。",[827,1429,1430,1432],{},[833,1431,835],{}," 今天开车听广播时突然想起投资的不必要信息是非常多的，比如什么20天线、50天线啊，什么超买超卖啊等等。凡是过几年回头看觉得很无聊的信息都是应该被排除的。(2012-05-23)",[827,1434,1435,1437],{},[833,1436,835],{}," 很好奇人们为什么会有2012年的投资策略和选股思路，难道年年不一样吗？或者说是看别人的反应不一样？（2012-01-10）",[827,1439,1440],{},"网友：保险资金入市最近报道的很多，以往伴随着这个消息的都有一波牛市，请教段先生怎么看待这个消息？",[827,1442,1443,1445],{},[833,1444,863],{}," ：（白眼表情）（2011-06-09）",[822,1447,1449],{"id":1448},"第五节-分析师机构与对冲基金","第五节 分析师、机构与对冲基金",[827,1451,1452],{},"网友：我想华尔街的分析师算的肯定都挺精确。",[827,1454,1455,1457],{},[833,1456,835],{}," 不要迷信华尔街的分析师，好的分析师非常少。（2010-04-07）",[827,1459,1460,1462,1463],{},[833,1461,863],{}," ：从来没了解过，但感觉投行经常需要写报告，对错没关系，但不写的话分析师就没法混了。至少当年高盛对网易的看法是完全不对的。刚开始看高盛的报告还有点郁闷，觉得他们怎么老是乱写呢，后来慢慢就习惯了，",[833,1464,1465],{},"因为发现分析师的报告大部分都是胡乱拼出来的。再后来就再也没兴趣看分析师的报告了，再后来突然明白为什么他们可以做一辈子分析师也退不了休的原因了。",[827,1467,1468,1471],{},[833,1469,1470],{},"顺便向极少数不错的分析师道个歉哈，不是说你们"," 。（2011-12-15）",[827,1473,1474],{},"网友：呵呵，我绝对同意段大哥的观点。看两年的少之又少，通常也就几个月。所以我一般都不把大行估价当一回事。",[827,1476,1477],{},"引用：巨人网络（GA）摩根士丹利给予巨人增持评级",[827,1479,1480],{},[1481,1482,1483],"em",{},"摩根士丹利今日发布研究报告，给予巨人股票增持评级。以下为报告概要：我们认为巨人股价在未来60日内可能上涨，原因如下：1）我们认为巨人股价遭到低估，目前股价仅相当于2012年预期每股收益的6倍……",[827,1485,1486,1488],{},[833,1487,863],{}," ：这人好像已经n次说60天以内了，不过现在加了个80%的可能性。难道在这行混饭吃就一定要给时间表并学会说些别人看不懂的语言？（2012-03-07）",[827,1490,1491,1494],{},[833,1492,1493],{},"段永平：我不太看分析师的报告的，我倒是觉得绝大多数分析师该看看我的东西，不然会多做好多年的分析师的"," 。（2012-12-07）",[827,1496,1497],{},"网友：段总的蚂蚁熊兵是啥意思？",[827,1499,1500,1502],{},[833,1501,835],{}," 就是散户的意思。（2025-08-23）",[827,1504,1505],{},"网友：至于yahoo，他自己财报里也都写了，机构这些人也不傻，咱能想到的人家也能想到。也就这样了。",[827,1507,1508,1510],{},[833,1509,835],{}," 呵呵，你要这么看机构的人的话你就应该再多看看巴菲特的东西以争取更大的进步了。大多机构是很难做真正的价值投资者的，因为他们的考核体系是用一年来计算的。机构这些人的问题不是傻而是都太聪明了（好像是芒格讲的），他们是聪明的旅鼠（巴菲特语）。",[827,1512,1513],{},"这里没有丝毫挤对机构人的意思。事实上我认识非常多机构的人，里面很多人都很好很聪明。",[827,1515,1516],{},"你想想看，有多少比例的对冲基金可以有10年以上的寿命？你再看看去年都是谁在最便宜的时候狂卖来着？",[827,1518,1519],{},"我说的这些不是对Yahoo而言的（个股的看法可能会有很大差别，因为大家都在某种程度上盲人摸象来着），希望对大家有帮助。（2010-03-20）",[827,1521,1522],{},"补充：对冲基金的平均寿命好像只有7年，千万别学他们的做法。（2010-03-27）",[827,1524,1525,1527],{},[833,1526,835],{}," 开个玩笑，我发现这类活动里，讲的多是不为自己买股票的（比如分析师或基金啥的），听的多是不知道该买啥的。听到一个好的演讲和找到一只好股票差不多一样难度，当然有时间去一下也没啥直接损失。（2012-02-08）",[822,1529,1531],{"id":1530},"第六节-不预测宏观","第六节 不预测宏观",[827,1533,1534],{},"网友：您研究宏观经济吗？还是把全部的精力放在研究微观经济上？",[827,1536,1537,1539,1540,1543],{},[833,1538,835],{}," 对宏观经济完全没概念也是很难了解微观经济的。",[833,1541,1542],{},"所谓对宏观经济的了解应该是对经济现象的理解，而不是花很多功夫去根据宏观经济的短期数据来不断调整自己的“投资”","。我本身本来就学过些宏观经济，主要是马克思以及其他西方经济学的东西，所以对宏观经济知道一点。",[827,1545,1546],{},"其他的东西对公司短期盈利有影响，但如果你从5年10年的角度看，你会发现宏观的东西对公司的影响要比想象的小得多。(2010-02-07)",[827,1548,1549],{},"网友：价值投资者是否要重视宏观经济呢？",[827,1551,1552,1554],{},[833,1553,835],{}," 了解总是要的，但不是每天看消息的那种。长期而言，对宏观经济还是要理解的好。（2010-05-23）",[827,1556,1557],{},"网友：投资股票是不是只应当关注公司，不要关注宏观短时间的变化，",[827,1559,1560,1562],{},[833,1561,835],{}," 我不懂宏观经济，虽然我研究生是学宏观经济的（计量经济）。（2019-08-02）",[827,1564,1565],{},"网友：阿段看宏观经济是怎么个方法呢？怎么过滤宏观资讯的？",[827,1567,1568,1570],{},[833,1569,835],{}," 除非你懂，不然这些东西只能让你糊涂。不过，作为投资人，我认为对宏观经济还是要了解的好，至少要懂一般的经济现象。（2010-05-23）",[827,1572,1573,1574,1576],{},"网友：说",[833,1575,1006],{},"不关心宏观其实也是不太对的。",[827,1578,1579,1581],{},[833,1580,835],{}," 在根基不变的情况下确实没必要关注太多的宏观变化。(2025-03-02)",[827,1583,1584],{},"网友：学长会不会考虑等到中国房产泡沫扎破以后再买万科？我看谢国忠一直在宣称这个泡沫即将来临。",[827,1586,1587,1589],{},[833,1588,835],{}," 我只管公司便宜不便宜。其他的都是是否让公司便宜不便宜的外部条件。（2010-04-24）",[827,1591,1592],{},[833,1593,1594,1595,1029],{},"“我和沃伦并非依靠预测宏观经济走势并基于这些预测结果下注，才在人生中取得如今的成就。”(",[833,1596,1028],{},[827,1598,1599],{},"我也不是。(2012-06-26)",[827,1601,1602,1603,1029],{},"“我对总体经济一窍不通，汇率与利率根本无法预测，好在我做分析与选择投资标的时根本不去理会它。”(",[833,1604,1006],{},[827,1606,1607,1608,1610],{},"好多人以为自己看看新闻就能比",[833,1609,1006],{},"明白，可笑不？",[827,1612,1613,1618],{},[833,1614,1615,1616,1029],{},"“从预言中你可以得知许多预言者的信息，但对未来却所获无几。”(",[833,1617,1006],{}," 哈哈，这个说法很妙。(2012-07-28)",[827,1620,1621],{},"网友：为什么老巴说买卖股票，你都不应基于宏观经济的预测。这个问题困扰我很久了。",[827,1623,1624,1626],{},[833,1625,835],{}," 你如果能用10年的眼光看企业你就明白了。（2014-3-22）",[827,1628,1629,1632],{},[833,1630,1631],{},"我好像印象中没见过经济学家最后成为投资大家的，似乎经济学家都不太会投资。不知道是不是他们都太过于关注宏观了？"," （2011-10-24）",[827,1634,1635],{},"网友：想请教您对全球宏观策略的看法，您觉得这种方法有效么？",[827,1637,1638,1640],{},[833,1639,835],{}," 虽然我研究生学的是计量经济（也叫数量经济，不过我不算好学生），但不认为那对投资能有什么大帮助，不然投资做得好的就都是那些经济学家了。（2012-05-25）",[827,1642,1643],{},"网友：经济学家这个职业不会比风水大师或者算命大师高明多少吧，都是靠忽悠，不过之前听说过蒙对的人还获得过诺贝尔奖的，呵呵！",[827,1645,1646,1648],{},[833,1647,835],{}," 有很多很好的经济学家。但经济学家大多比较宏观，而投资往往非常微观，不是一回事。（2012-05-25）",[827,1650,1651],{},"网友：请教一个关于周期的问题，我记得你曾说过，所谓周期就是马后炮的说法，你认为周期是无法事先预测的，我的问题是你是认为单纯股市的周期无法预测，还是你认为整个宏观经济或某个行业的所谓周期也根本无法事先预测？",[827,1653,1654,1656],{},[833,1655,835],{}," 我不研究这些问题（周期的问题），不光不知道如何预测周期，连定义是什么都搞不清。（2018-01-07）",[827,1658,1659],{},"网友：现在你对与经济周期随之而来的股市周期怎么看？是不是可以在周期性股灾后的平稳期买一些有价值的股票（平时买经不起吓），然后放几年到牛市疯狂时候卖掉？你怎么看？",[827,1661,1662,1664],{},[833,1663,835],{}," 我对市场的七窍已经通了六窍，但目前对周期这一窍还完全不通，回答不了你这个问题。（2019-4-02）",[827,1666,1667],{},"网友：大道老师好，沃什的上任会对美股整体上涨预期产生负面影响吗？",[827,1669,1670],{},"大道：你觉得关注这种宏观消息对你会有帮助吗？（2026-02-02）",[827,1672,1003,1673,1675],{},[833,1674,863],{},"周期投资厉害很经典，不知道段总这次是否能躲过贝森特七伤拳的做空美股，春节到五一节之间。如果段总看到这条信息，不妨花个100万请卢麒元做个咨询。",[827,1677,1678],{},"大道：来了个大韭菜而已。（2025-11-14）",[827,1680,1681],{},"网友：（实体企业的寒冬）读完感到冬天真的来了！",[827,1683,1684,1686],{},[833,1685,835],{}," 谁的冬天？关于冬天的说法，茅台肯定是不同意的，我们也不太同意，类似观点的应该还有很多家企业，比如苹果，Google……（2016-02-23）",[827,1688,1689],{},"网友：我很想请教一下大道老师：消费不景气，对企业的影响有多大？我看了大道老师所有的发言，但这个问题似乎从没有提及。",[827,1691,1692],{},"大道：影响很大的。（2026-01-21）",[827,1694,1695],{},"网友：中美贸易战，今后的投资是否也要考虑这种政局变动的风险？怎么考虑？",[827,1697,1698,1700],{},[833,1699,835],{}," 对贸易战我没啥看法，或者说有也不说反正说了也没用。从投资的角度讲，找到好公司比啥都重要。在大家有“危机”的时候，好公司往往能将“危机”简化为“机”的。",[827,1702,1703],{},"专注在公司生意上，忽略短期的波动很重要。眼前这些事10年后都不是事。（2018-09-10）",[827,1705,1706],{},"网友：老总，您怎么看现在的贸易战呢？",[827,1708,1709,1711],{},[833,1710,835],{}," 从投资的角度看，会多出一些投资机会，因为好企业笑到最后的概率要大很多。（2019-06-26）",[827,1713,1714],{},"网友：你怎么看美国这个事件（贸易战）对中国电子产业和科技的影响。作为投资人，面对当前的情形从中长期来看应该怎么做？",[827,1716,1717,1719],{},[833,1718,835],{}," 长期来说，该干嘛干嘛！（2019-05-23）",[822,1721,1723],{"id":1722},"第七节-中国经济体制与人口趋势","第七节 中国经济、体制与人口趋势",[827,1725,1726],{},"网友：长期来说（30年），你看好还是看空中国经济呢？",[827,1728,1729,1731],{},[833,1730,863],{}," ：和谁比？",[827,1733,1734],{},"网友：和过去30年比呢？",[827,1736,1737,1739],{},[833,1738,863],{}," ：和今天比，我赌30年后会更好些。（2012-05-14）",[827,1741,1742],{},"网友：替全国人民谢谢您！其实我也看好包括看好我自己",[827,1744,1745,1747],{},[833,1746,863],{}," ：（流汗表情）（2012-05-14）",[827,1749,1750],{},"网友Z：和美国比。",[827,1752,1753,1755],{},[833,1754,863],{}," ：美国的系统使得美国犯大错的机会低，时间越长效果越明显。（2012-05-14）",[827,1757,1758],{},"网友C：无论怎样，你都要相信国家的大趋势的方向永远是向前的，这是投资的前提，哪怕经济等各方面最终崩溃。",[827,1760,1761,1763],{},[833,1762,863],{}," ：国家的说法有点复杂，比如很难想象北韩可以烂这么久。（2013-07-12）",[827,1765,1766],{},"网友：段总，要想把国家大趋势和股市前景区分开来，对我来说好难啊，做长期投资不得不老是想到这些问题。在这种性格中，能成为价值投资者吗？",[827,1768,1769,1771],{},[833,1770,863],{}," ：能看懂国家大趋势也是很了不起的事情哈，能帮你赚很多钱的。不过，如果其实看不懂的话，还不如不看？",[827,1773,1774],{},"网友：想请教段总两点：",[827,1776,1777],{},"1、很多人很看好中国大陆的未来，我想问段总，在当前制度体系不做大的变更前提下，中国的未来真的会那么美好吗？很想听听在国内实体经济领域打拼多年的您能够发表点宝贵意见。",[827,1779,1780],{},"2、我看了看巴老09年初的就对公开上市公司部分的投资组合，消费类占比超过40%，其次为金融（20%），其中很多是跨国大企业。假如说制度、文化等都不是问题，不知道我们面对美国这些占据了先发优势的企业的竞争中，我们是否同样能够在很多领域成长出同样多的、甚至更伟大的企业？",[827,1782,1783,1785,1786,1789],{},[833,1784,863],{}," ：1、我相信中国的未来一定是美好的，只是不知道你说的未来指的是多少年的未来？体制我也相信早晚一定会改的，因为不改进是会走不下去的。我们只是不知道这种改变需要多少年。太快肯定是不好的，fast is slow就是这个道理。太慢的",[945,1787,115],{"href":1788},"\u002Fjihuichengben","又太高。这个大老板不好当啊。",[827,1791,1792],{},"2、不知道你指的是哪些企业，也不知道你的更伟大的定义是什么。客观讲，我个人的感觉总体上中国的企业水平目前还有点像我们的篮球，要更伟大好像不太可能啊。体制很可能是制约的重要因素之一，文化是另一个重要因素。这两个东西变过来，尤其是文化要改变非常不容易，没有个一两百年恐怕不行。（2011-01-08）",[827,1794,1795],{},"网友：我查了一下人口普查的数据，0-14岁年轻人的数量从82年开始减少得还是比较快的，占总人口比例是33.6%（1982年）、27.7%（1990年）、22.9%（2000年），绝对数量分别是3.39亿、3.13亿、2.91亿。我看过报道说各地的中小学都在经历一个数量、规模减小的过程，但没有深入求证……",[827,1797,1798,1800],{},[833,1799,835],{}," 从我们卖学习工具的生意里好像也能体会到人口年龄层的变化。算起来房地产泡沫（如果有的话）大概到这些人需要买房子的时候就该差不多了。（2011-01-10）",[827,1802,1803,1804,1808],{},"网友：突然发现有个关于中国人口结构的问题，似乎有点触目惊心。请教大道，90后、00后人口数量锐减，是不是会对目前很多最终客户是年轻人，根基又不扎实的",[945,1805,1807],{"href":1806},"\u002Fshangyemoshi","生意模式","逐渐产生致命影响？",[827,1810,1811,1813],{},[833,1812,835],{}," 会有影响，这个影响面会比大多数人想象的宽。（2015-05-23）",[822,1815,1817],{"id":1816},"第八节-通胀货币与汇率","第八节 通胀、货币与汇率",[827,1819,1820],{},"网友：我等“巴菲特”出来说可以买股票了再买进还不迟。",[827,1822,1823,1825],{},[833,1824,835],{}," 巴菲特每次说的时间都不太对，但最后都是对的。这一次他已经说过了，包括股东大会他也说了：拿着现金是最危险的。记得有一次他说“我只是早了3年而已”。",[827,1827,1828],{},"网友：为什么“拿着现金是最危险的”？",[827,1830,1831,1833],{},[833,1832,835],{}," 由于未来通胀一定会来，钱将不如以前值钱。比如，我记得90年代初一万块还算挺多钱的，现在在很多地方还不够买个放凳子的面积。（2010-05-08）",[827,1835,1836],{},"网友：我很愚钝，从来没有弄懂过一家上市企业，我是不是就不能买股票了呢。但是我又怕钱存在银行被通胀杀手抢去，怎么办。",[827,1838,1839,1841],{},[833,1840,835],{}," 被通胀抢好过在股市亏。（2010-10-22）",[827,1843,1844],{},"网友：通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。这句怎么理解？",[827,1846,1847,1849],{},[833,1848,835],{}," 通胀的情况下货币会贬值。如果你赚钱的速度没有贬值快的话，实际上你是亏钱的。大多数人把每年赚的大部分钱花完了，就没有这个问题。（2010-05-28）",[827,1851,1852],{},"网友：我是很担心的是现在通货膨胀，电子类产品少有涨价的（内存除外），最近连我吃的馒头都涨价了。未来还有什么不涨价的？",[827,1854,1855,1857],{},[833,1856,835],{}," 要什么都不涨价你才该哭呢，40年前不就是这样吗？恶性通胀是很讨厌的东西，但价值投资做得好就能对付。（2011-04-02）",[827,1859,1860],{},"芒格：我以前那个年代，汉堡包5美分一个、最低时薪是40美分，所以我算是见证了巨大的通胀了。但它摧毁了投资环境吗？我不这么认为。",[827,1862,1863,1865],{},[833,1864,835],{}," 投资是抵抗通胀的最好办法，不是最好办法之一。所以没有闲钱投资是件痛苦的事情。",[827,1867,1868],{},"网友：您会把您手中的资产做资产配置分成股票和固定收益两类吗？",[827,1870,1871,1873],{},[833,1872,835],{}," 我绝对不会去做固定收益的东西。固定收益的东西长期肯定是输给通胀的，所以长期来说是件错的事情。（2019-04-21）",[827,1875,1876],{},"网友：常见H股一般会比A股便宜一些，这个主要原因是什么呢？",[827,1878,1879,1881],{},[833,1880,835],{}," 个人认为是货币不能自由兑换造成的。如果货币能自由兑换，应该不会有这个情况。（2010-10-26）",[827,1883,1884],{},"网友：如何看待人民币对美元的汇率，长期看会升值吗？",[827,1886,1887,1889],{},[833,1888,835],{}," 这个问题要在可以自由兑换后讨论才有实际意义。（2025-09-28）",[827,1891,1892],{},"网友：段哥，上午好。美债收益大幅度上涨，引起经济危机，那全球股市会剧烈震动吗？",[827,1894,1895],{},"大道：会呀，跟之前一样，每天都是剧烈震动的。你离得越近，震动的越厉害。（2026-08-18）",[827,1897,1898],{},"网友：美债达40万亿美元，会引发美元信用体系崩塌和经济危机吗？",[827,1900,1901],{},"大道：当然会啊！如果你现在拿着美金，该好好想想要换成什么货币了。如果你没美金，那恭喜你没这个烦恼。（2026-08-18）",[822,1903,1905],{"id":1904},"第九节-大盘与指数估值","第九节 大盘与指数估值",[827,1907,1908],{},"网友：我记得原来股市涨到点位很高，好像是5000点吧，段大哥就在一次访谈中就明确说了我看是有点高了，玩玩可以，赌身家是万万不能了。我看没有哪个“技术”专家明确说过这样的话。",[827,1910,1911,1913],{},[833,1912,835],{}," 我对大盘的判断很简单。如果你有足够的钱把所有股票买下来，然后赚所有上市公司赚的钱，如果你觉得合适，那这个大盘就不贵，不然就贵了。（这里还没算交易费呢）（2010-05-08）",[827,1915,1916],{},"网友：段总，房价一直涨，会不会有泡沫？而今天A股已经到了2491点，如果以价值投资来分析，我们如何分析目前A股股票的价值。",[827,1918,1919,1921,1922,1925],{},[833,1920,835],{}," 不知道你能否有数据了解这个A股市场。如果你用整个A股的企业价值（市值＋",[945,1923,64],{"href":1924},"\u002Ffuzhai","-现金）去买下所有A股企业的价钱便宜吗？如果便宜则A股就便宜了，如果贵就还是贵。我没有数据，没分析过。",[827,1927,1928],{},"对于房价，如果你自己需要房子住，比较一下是租便宜还是买便宜就知道房价贵不贵了。短期而言价格和价值是有可能背离的，长期不会。",[827,1930,1931],{},"网友T：如果A股整个市值超过整个GDP那么我就认为牛市已经接近到顶了。如果A股整个市值低于GDP的1\u002F3或者还要低，那么接近熊底了，看好的股票可以买了，也差不多了。",[827,1933,1934,1936],{},[833,1935,835],{}," 这就是把大市当一只股票，对判断大市会很有帮助。",[827,1938,1939],{},"网友K：这就是所谓“证券化率”。不过TOPCP兄弟你能说出“要是在GDP的1\u002F2以上，我就不再买股”这话，如果严格执行的话，真是一条不错的规则。",[827,1941,1942,1944],{},[833,1943,835],{}," 他这话对大盘而言是有道理的，对个股没道理。真这样就说明他非常棒，还有很大的进步空间，是成长股。（2010-06-07）",[827,1946,1947],{},"网友：预测大盘和个股是同一回事。长远来说，大盘也就是经济的反映。",[827,1949,1950,1952],{},[833,1951,835],{}," 预测一般指的是短期的东西，我不做预测。评估一个公司的价值是另一回事。那不是预测，是在描述一个现象，和预测无关。（2011-08-14）",[827,1954,1955],{},"网友：A股今天4121点，以后如果过高了，请段总给大家一下预警！",[827,1957,1958],{},"2007年7月，段总在波士堂说：“我也不能说这股市高了低了，说它高了，大家确实会不高兴，虽然我确实是那样认为的”，诚实而委婉的提出预警！",[827,1960,1961],{},"2007年10月巴菲特全部卖出中石油！",[827,1963,1964],{},"李嘉诚2007年5月提出A股预警，“内地股市的PE达50倍至60倍，是惊人的市盈率，所以希望市民量力而为”品质、能力同样一流的人才啊！2015-04-15",[827,1966,1967,1969],{},[833,1968,835],{}," 算大市是不是贵其实有个简单的办法：假设自己拥有指数的相关公司，20年不许卖，你马上就能感觉到是不是贵了。（2015-04-15）",[827,1971,1972],{},"网友：就我的理解来讲，给指数估值不是采用类似分析公司的估值方法，而是采用最直接简单的方法：在大多数人恐慌的时候买进，在大多数人贪婪的时候卖出。",[827,1974,1975,1977],{},[833,1976,863],{}," ：我也是这么理解的。我理解的巴菲特讲的买美国其实就是买指数。（2010-04-13）",[827,1979,1980],{},"网友：美国股指已经达到17个月高点了，这个时候你的策略是什么？加仓减仓？",[827,1982,1983,1985],{},[833,1984,835],{}," 我买卖股票不是基于大盘的，所以和他是否高点无关。",[827,1987,1988],{},"如果我投资指数的话，我肯定不会加仓，因为便宜的时候肯定早就进去了。当然，如果有新的钱出来的话，还是要考虑一下是否加仓的问题。我发现我回答不了是否要因为大盘而加仓的问题，没什么概念。（2010-03-18）",[827,1990,1991],{},"网友：我不得不说，虽然任何时候都有投资的机会，现在一定是最好的时机。我的问题是缺钱，房贷，小孩子等各项开支。真希望现在的行情能持续一年，这样我还能存点钱投资。现在是下大注的时候。投自己懂的企业。",[827,1993,1994,1996],{},[833,1995,835],{}," 投资是一辈子的乐趣，现在也未必就是最好的机会。只有你了解的好公司特别便宜的时候才是最好的机会，和大盘其实不一定有关。（2011-09-20）",[827,1998,1999,2000,2002,2003,2006,2007,2009],{},"网友：为什么",[833,2001,1006],{},"最近连接大幅减持股票，持有巨量现金？是觉得未来1-2内，美国会爆发债务危机吗？ 最新财报显示，",[833,2004,2005],{},"伯克希尔","·哈撒韦的美股持仓规模降至2575亿美元，创三年新低，而现金储备高达3441亿美元（约人民币2.48万亿）。更令人惊讶的是，",[833,2008,1006],{},"已连续11个季度净卖出股票，仅今年二季度就减持30亿美元。",[827,2011,2012,2014],{},[833,2013,835],{}," 确实比较贵了。（2025-10-19）",[827,2016,2017,2018,2020],{},"网友：段老师您好，刚刚您说美股的股票贵了，",[833,2019,1006],{},"持有大量现金，如美股崩盘了，对A股冲击有多大，影响是长期还是短期呢，望赐教。",[827,2022,2023],{},"大道：我哪里说美股贵了？你仔细看看？（2026-01-23）",[827,2025,2026],{},"网友：这里发表评论的人好像有一大部分是国外（好像大都是美国）的朋友。不知道国外的资本市场如何的发达，而国内的证券市场是一个畸形的政策市场，股市看政府的脸色，大部分股民都是赌徒。段总怎么看！",[827,2028,2029,2031],{},[833,2030,863],{}," ：如果真是大多数投资金额都是在赌的话，那一定会有个时点可以赚大钱。",[827,2033,2034],{},"补充：我是说一定会有个时点（时间长了会有很多时点）价值投资者能赚大钱。",[827,2036,2037],{},"这里时点指的是一个时间区域。（2010-04-20）",[822,2039,2041],{"id":2040},"第十节-牛市熊市与泡沫","第十节 牛市、熊市与泡沫",[827,2043,2044],{},"网友：价值投资会考量牛市与熊市吗？牛熊市是可知的吗？能判断吗？",[827,2046,2047,2049],{},[833,2048,863],{}," ：看看牛市熊市的定义就知道了。",[827,2051,2052],{},"所谓“牛市”，也称多头市场，指市场行情普遍看涨，延续时间较长的大升市。",[827,2054,2055],{},"所谓“熊市”，也称空头市场，指行情普遍看淡，延续时间相对较长的大跌市。",[827,2057,2058],{},"牛熊市的说法都是马后炮的说法，没人可以预测，或者说只有一半的人可以预测，但事先没人知道是哪一半对。",[827,2060,2061,2064],{},[833,2062,2063],{},"价值投资只管便宜与否，不管别人的想法，所以应该不考量"," 。（2010-05-23）",[827,2066,2067,2069],{},[833,2068,835],{}," 呵呵，多预测几次，总有对的时候哈。牛市熊市都是市场的看法，投资最重要其实也是唯一重要的是看懂公司的未来。看不懂就歇着，赌牛市或熊市是危险滴。如果买的是非上市公司，股市多少点有啥关系？（2012-07-23）",[827,2071,2072],{},"网友：其实牛市来不来真的无所谓，牛市来了所有的股票都涨的差不多。好的股票是在熊市也在慢慢涨，而且熊市中的涨幅甚至超过牛市。",[827,2074,2075,2078],{},[833,2076,2077],{},"段永平：我个人认为牛熊市的叫法不是价值投资的。事实上也没有人真的知道什么时候是牛市什么时候是熊市（事后知道的挺多），而且大多数人在牛熊市都亏钱"," 。（2010-12-06）",[827,2080,2081],{},"网友：讲“牛市以及熊市的投资策略”的人不多不少都有一些投机的心态吧。",[827,2083,2084,2086],{},[833,2085,863],{}," ：应该叫“或多或少”不过，这里用或多或少可能也不太合适。想着牛熊市本身就是投机，不是或多或少的问题。（2015-06-28）",[827,2088,2089],{},"网友：我没见过经营企业还分牛市卖掉，熊市买回的！",[827,2091,2092,2094],{},[833,2093,863],{}," ：这个例子不错。（2015-06-28）",[827,2096,2097],{},"网友：A股的投资者有希望吗？毕竟投不了美股，钱一直存银行也不是办法，今天下定决心投入50%仓位。",[827,2099,2100,2102],{},[833,2101,835],{}," 哪个股票市场里大部分“投资者”都是没希望的，牛市熊市都一样。好的“投资者”在哪个市场最后都能找到机会！（2011-12-15）",[827,2104,2105],{},"网友：我很庆幸在我20多岁的时候经历了一轮完整的牛熊周期而不是40岁。",[827,2107,2108],{},"大道：其实没啥用的，因为“这一次跟以往不一样“这句话一直成立。（2026-08-10）",[827,2110,2111],{},"网友：刚看了林园的博客。典型熊市第三期——",[827,2113,2114],{},"目前股市据我们的观察和研究，就是典型的熊市第三期，它具备熊市第三期的所有要素。6月27号我在广州同广州证券和谢百三教授以及炒股的十几人吃晚饭，大约吃了接近两小时，大家谈股市的话题却占了不到整个话题的百分之十，业内人士都不谈论股市，说的都是和股市不相干的事。",[827,2116,2117],{},"第二个现象就是管理层不断的出利好措施或者不断的喊话提振股市信心，但市场却一跌再跌，毫无反应，继续下跌，这就正好印证了熊市三期对任何利好都不会有反应。第三，目前，绝大部分投资者都是严重套牢，几乎没人愿意炒股，市场极度恐慌，一买就套。",[827,2119,2120],{},"第四，从财务指标看，很多股票已跌破净资产，现在买银行股就等于开银行（包括一些垄断的行业），这就相当于，我们现在买这些股票就相当于自己在开这些公司。第五点，还有一个现象就是，一些公司的可转债都在面值以下。第六点，普通投资者和舆论都在给投资者算账，说投资中国股市十年都不盈利的言论。第七点，近期又有很多股票加速下跌，杀伤力很大。以上现象都具备熊市第三期的所有要素。",[827,2122,2123],{},"第八点，人们都在骂股市和基金。",[827,2125,2126],{},"我对熊市第三期的看法，最终的结果是管理层对股市的利好最终都要体现，几年后，人们发现今天不炒股不买基金，会自己打自己的耳光，同时还要说“笨”，很多人又对我说“你都是那时候买的便宜，今天都高了”我的股票又都成了高在天上的欣赏品。十年不赚钱这个结论是熊市第三期得出来的结论，是不准确的。",[827,2128,2129,2130,2133],{},"我们对个股或者股指的看法应该是在一个长时间的平均值，而不是取某一个点来说这个问题，我们对个股或者资产的价格应该取这么多年的平均值，这样才合理。熊市第三期买股要赚钱是小概率事件，亏钱是大概率事件，从这点来看投资者亏钱也是很正常的事情，我们要有",[945,2131,18],{"href":2132},"\u002Fpingchangxin","。我的方法是熊市第三期满仓持有，牛市第三期资产上大台阶。",[827,2135,2136],{},[833,2137,2138],{},"段永平：牛市熊市的说法是眼睛看着别人（或叫市场）的表现。用这种办法投资有时候会对，因为“熊市”时往往股价都便宜，买到便宜股票的概率高。",[827,2140,2141],{},[833,2142,2143],{},"在自己了解并喜欢的公司便宜的时候满仓往往都是对的，和熊市牛市无关，虽然看起来好像有点相关度。",[827,2145,2146,2149],{},[833,2147,2148],{},"right business、right people、right price和牛市熊市没有必然关系，但“熊市”时right price出现的概率确实会比“牛市”高很多，但当right price出现时买的人并不需要知道现在是“牛”还是“熊”。"," （2012-07-08）",[827,2151,2152],{},"网友：好像林园说过，他在熊市末期喜欢买入可转债，现在有些可转债到期收益率达到5%左右，风险应该不大！",[827,2154,2155,2157],{},[833,2156,835],{}," 知道到了熊市末期居然还会买债券？居然还有人信？（2014-02-21）",[827,2159,2160],{},"网友：最近很多国内的亲戚开始热烈讨论股票，街头巷尾都在流传着炒股致富的故事，甚至官方媒体上都在报道老人炒股多少多少年，为孙子买房子的新闻。我回家跟亲戚们聊天，觉得大家都像着了魔，全在聊K线图、国家政策一定会保股市什么的，我有一种随时会出大事的不安感觉。（2015-04-18）",[827,2162,2163,2165],{},[833,2164,863],{}," ：可能是泡沫的初期，也可能是中期或者末期。（2015-04-18）",[827,2167,2168,2170,2171,2174],{},[833,2169,863],{}," 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